There has been a trend of similar magnitude towards Labour so far (up about 4% so far this month). But there has also been a trend towards the Tories this time, whereas in 2017 the Tories were fairly static up to this point.
It was only in the last three weeks in 2017 that the Tories dropped by about 5 points and Labour rose by about 5 points in the polls. But the final polls in 2017 were still underestimating Labour by about 3 points.
He deserves to be smashed out the park and sent back to his house in France. A total Brexit sabateur.
Let me guess you don't like the cut of his jib?
Banterman displays the dark heart of Brexit.
Leavers are all about wanting to deport people they don't like.
I'm still reeling from the revelation that @HYUFD is of Huguenot stock. But then again he is a diehard Remainer so it just goes to show - you can take the boy out of France...
It'll be interesting to see the overlap between people who revel in this hacking and those that got so worked up about the news of the world hacking phones.
There is a presumption of privacy regarding the contents of your mobile's answering machine. There is no presumption of privacy regarding tweets.
Aren't these direct messages (private) though? If tweets no need to hack as already public.
I dont like Banks, but agree that direct messages seem far more similar to voicemails than tweets in terms of privacy.
He deserves to be smashed out the park and sent back to his house in France. A total Brexit sabateur.
Let me guess you don't like the cut of his jib?
Banterman displays the dark heart of Brexit.
Leavers are all about wanting to deport people they don't like.
I'm still reeling from the revelation that @HYUFD is of Huguenot stock. But then again he is a diehard Remainer so it just goes to show - you can take the boy out of France...
I am proud to say I do not have an ounce of French heritage in me.
Clearly the 17 point was an outlier. 40 / 30 seems much more realistic. When you start talking mid 40's for the Tories, I just don't buy it.
Agreed. I think well get circa 40/36 or 40/32 if labour do badly.
What makes you think they will get to 36%. The past two weeks it seems like they have hit a ceiling of 30%.
I think the possibility of a Johnson majority will concentrate minds in the same was as last time, but it will be slightly less effective hence being 4 or so behind.
Clearly the 17 point was an outlier. 40 / 30 seems much more realistic. When you start talking mid 40's for the Tories, I just don't buy it.
A ten-point lead is pretty much identical to the one at the same stage in 2017.
As in 2017, we have wide disparities between the leads reported in different polls - larger than they should be on the basis of just sampling error.
I don't remember a "Eureka" moment when the pollsters realised what had gone wrong in 2017 and corrected it.
The trend is very different to 2017 though.
Thankfully!
I will be genuinely glad when this GE is over, provided Jezza doesn't win. I am not fan of Bonking Boris, but the far left dangerous bollocks spouted especially from McDonnell gives me sleepness nights.
Wait til we see their manifesto....
This is the sort of crap they're saying when they want to win votes and not scare the horses. Imagine what they'd do in a budget given free reign if they managed to do so?
Or have a rainbow coalition all demanding pork for their own interests?
It would be correctable if we were allowed another fair election, of course.
Obviously I haven't looked at the Arron Banks direct messages, but those that have seem quite surprised by the degree of palliness between the Guardian's acerbic Marina Hyde, beloved of Remainers everywhere, and Arron Banks.
both sides were run by extraordinarily wealthy individuals and should be better expressed as a civil war between two sides of the elite.
Yes! We can argue about how many fo the elite on both sides, one more than the other I'd personally say, but it was an argument between the elites.
It'll be interesting to see the overlap between people who revel in this hacking and those that got so worked up about the news of the world hacking phones.
There is a presumption of privacy regarding the contents of your mobile's answering machine. There is no presumption of privacy regarding tweets.
Aren't these direct messages (private) though? If tweets no need to hack as already public.
Oh, I thought they were tweets. I don't know the privacy for direct messages. If they were private then yes, the OP had a point. Provided no criminal activity is involved, private communications should be sampled only for statistical purposes and anonymised to prevent individuals being identified.
He deserves to be smashed out the park and sent back to his house in France. A total Brexit sabateur.
Let me guess you don't like the cut of his jib?
Banterman displays the dark heart of Brexit.
Leavers are all about wanting to deport people they don't like.
I'm still reeling from the revelation that @HYUFD is of Huguenot stock. But then again he is a diehard Remainer so it just goes to show - you can take the boy out of France...
I am proud to say I do not have an ounce of French heritage in me.
This kind of thing always makes me think of Dame Edna Everage wishing she had a bit of Pole in her.
He deserves to be smashed out the park and sent back to his house in France. A total Brexit sabateur.
Let me guess you don't like the cut of his jib?
Banterman displays the dark heart of Brexit.
Leavers are all about wanting to deport people they don't like.
I'm still reeling from the revelation that @HYUFD is of Huguenot stock. But then again he is a diehard Remainer so it just goes to show - you can take the boy out of France...
I am proud to say I do not have an ounce of French heritage in me.
This kind of thing always makes me think of Dame Edna Everage wishing she had a bit of Pole in her.
You need to get your mind out of the gutter and be virtuous like me.
I mean you wouldn't hear me using this line
Me to a pretty female: Have you got any Yorkshire in you?
He deserves to be smashed out the park and sent back to his house in France. A total Brexit sabateur.
Let me guess you don't like the cut of his jib?
Banterman displays the dark heart of Brexit.
Leavers are all about wanting to deport people they don't like.
I'm still reeling from the revelation that @HYUFD is of Huguenot stock. But then again he is a diehard Remainer so it just goes to show - you can take the boy out of France...
I am proud to say I do not have an ounce of French heritage in me.
This kind of thing always makes me think of Dame Edna Everage wishing she had a bit of Pole in her.
There has been a trend of similar magnitude towards Labour so far (up about 4% so far this month). But there has also been a trend towards the Tories this time, whereas in 2017 the Tories were fairly static up to this point.
It was only in the last three weeks in 2017 that the Tories dropped by about 5 points and Labour rose by about 5 points in the polls. But the final polls in 2017 were still underestimating Labour by about 3 points.
So for safety, the Tories should be looking for a lead of 13 points or more.
Clearly the 17 point was an outlier. 40 / 30 seems much more realistic. When you start talking mid 40's for the Tories, I just don't buy it.
A ten-point lead is pretty much identical to the one at the same stage in 2017.
As in 2017, we have wide disparities between the leads reported in different polls - larger than they should be on the basis of just sampling error.
I don't remember a "Eureka" moment when the pollsters realised what had gone wrong in 2017 and corrected it.
The trend is very different to 2017 though.
Thankfully!
I will be genuinely glad when this GE is over, provided Jezza doesn't win. I am not fan of Bonking Boris, but the far left dangerous bollocks spouted especially from McDonnell gives me sleepness nights.
Wait til we see their manifesto....
This is the sort of crap they're saying when they want to win votes and not scare the horses. Imagine what they'd do in a budget given free reign if they managed to do so?
Or have a rainbow coalition all demanding pork for their own interests?
It would be correctable if we were allowed another fair election, of course.
I'm far from convinced we would be, however.
Are we talking about Labour or the Conservatives, with Boris suspending parliament, purging dissenters and shaking the magic money tree?
He deserves to be smashed out the park and sent back to his house in France. A total Brexit sabateur.
Let me guess you don't like the cut of his jib?
Banterman displays the dark heart of Brexit.
Leavers are all about wanting to deport people they don't like.
I'm still reeling from the revelation that @HYUFD is of Huguenot stock. But then again he is a diehard Remainer so it just goes to show - you can take the boy out of France...
I am proud to say I do not have an ounce of French heritage in me.
This kind of thing always makes me think of Dame Edna Everage wishing she had a bit of Pole in her.
He deserves to be smashed out the park and sent back to his house in France. A total Brexit sabateur.
Let me guess you don't like the cut of his jib?
Banterman displays the dark heart of Brexit.
Leavers are all about wanting to deport people they don't like.
I'm still reeling from the revelation that @HYUFD is of Huguenot stock. But then again he is a diehard Remainer so it just goes to show - you can take the boy out of France...
I am proud to say I do not have an ounce of French heritage in me.
This kind of thing always makes me think of Dame Edna Everage wishing she had a bit of Pole in her.
You need to get your mind out of the gutter and be virtuous like me.
I mean you wouldn't hear me using this line
Me to a pretty female: Have you got any Yorkshire in you?
He deserves to be smashed out the park and sent back to his house in France. A total Brexit sabateur.
Let me guess you don't like the cut of his jib?
Banterman displays the dark heart of Brexit.
Leavers are all about wanting to deport people they don't like.
I'm still reeling from the revelation that @HYUFD is of Huguenot stock. But then again he is a diehard Remainer so it just goes to show - you can take the boy out of France...
I am proud to say I do not have an ounce of French heritage in me.
This kind of thing always makes me think of Dame Edna Everage wishing she had a bit of Pole in her.
Lenny Henry, shirley.
Yes, I think the joke was :'Do you have a little Caribbean blood in you?.......Would you like some?"
Clearly the 17 point was an outlier. 40 / 30 seems much more realistic. When you start talking mid 40's for the Tories, I just don't buy it.
Agreed. I think well get circa 40/36 or 40/32 if labour do badly.
28 for others is quite high in such a polarised landscape?
I hope 43/31
I think 42 to low 30s is about the mark but with the north and Midlands worse than trend for labour
Areas we have been told are trending worse for Labour: North, Midlands, Scotland, Wales.
Where is going good for Labour?
I think Scotland is relatively better than other areas in that the decline for Labour is not so large. It looks awful because 2017 wasn't that great to start with. Presumably London is better. The South generally may also be better for reasons similar to Scotland.
He deserves to be smashed out the park and sent back to his house in France. A total Brexit sabateur.
Let me guess you don't like the cut of his jib?
Banterman displays the dark heart of Brexit.
Leavers are all about wanting to deport people they don't like.
I'm still reeling from the revelation that @HYUFD is of Huguenot stock. But then again he is a diehard Remainer so it just goes to show - you can take the boy out of France...
I am proud to say I do not have an ounce of French heritage in me.
This kind of thing always makes me think of Dame Edna Everage wishing she had a bit of Pole in her.
Lenny Henry, shirley.
Yes, I think the joke was :'Do you have a little Caribbean blood in you?.......Would you like some?"
The Duke of York made racist remarks about Arabs during a state banquet for members of the Saudi royal family, a former home secretary claimed today.
Jacqui Smith said that she and other guests were left “slack jawed” by Prince Andrew’s comments during a conversation at the reception in 2007.
The allegation comes after a separate claim was made by a former Downing Street adviser that the Duke of York used the n-word during a meeting at Buckingham Palace.
The palace has denied that the duke, the subject of intense scrutiny since his BBC interview over his friendship with the sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, used racist language on either occasion.
Mrs Smith, was home secretary from 2007-09, made her disclosure in an LBC podcast in which she was discussing the general election campaign with her fellow broadcaster Iain Dale.
He deserves to be smashed out the park and sent back to his house in France. A total Brexit sabateur.
Let me guess you don't like the cut of his jib?
Banterman displays the dark heart of Brexit.
Leavers are all about wanting to deport people they don't like.
I'm still reeling from the revelation that @HYUFD is of Huguenot stock. But then again he is a diehard Remainer so it just goes to show - you can take the boy out of France...
I am proud to say I do not have an ounce of French heritage in me.
This kind of thing always makes me think of Dame Edna Everage wishing she had a bit of Pole in her.
Lenny Henry, shirley.
Sir Lenworth was born in Dudley, I think?
He did that routine. "Do you have any African in you... do you want some..."
The YouGov change is really about turnout . Higher here for Labour than the Tories. Having said that the Labour poll number could have been even higher as overall turnout in the 25 to 49 range is down to just 55% certain to vote . If that improves into the 60+ range that of course would help Labour .
That should set things up nicely for an increased Con lead with YouGov for Mega Polling Saturday!
It's the base that they'll compare their immediate post-debate poll to. If it's an outlier in Labour's favour to balance the previous outlier in the Tories favour, then it would make the post-debate comparison harder for Labour.
In previous campaigns, the debates have been the lead story on the TV news and BBC News website etc for 3 days - the day before, actual day and day after each debate.
Well today it's nowhere near the main story on the BBC News website with just three hours to go.
OK, this debate is on ITV but that didn't stop the BBC last time.
No question it is much, much less prominent than before.
It's the lead story on the BBC website in my version. Perhaps they do different sites for different regions?
The YouGov change is really about turnout . Higher here for Labour than the Tories. Having said that the Labour poll number could have been even higher as overall turnout in the 25 to 49 range is down to just 55% certain to vote . If that improves into the 60+ range that of course would help Labour .
I want to know which way Labour voters (or any solidly left-wing voters) will go..
(1) Will they “wake up” in the final ten days and do whatever it takes to deny Boris a majority and the Tories they hate a win?
(2) Will they accept Boris is going to win anyway, that his policy platform isn’t too bad (accepting Brexit must happen/hung round the neck of the Tories, even though they despise it) and decide it’s better to apply some radiotherapy to Labour to ensure it loses so badly that, post the election, it purges itself of the Far Left once and for all?
They can’t have both. If me reading of the typical Labour voter is right they’re far more likely to go for (1).
Half an hour of tonight's program is going to be about Brexit apparently. I am not entirely sure that is enough time for Jeremy to explain his policy.
Arf!
What comic-type interjections do you post when you hear sarcastic quips that aren't of such rubbish quality?
Fifteen minutes is a lot shorter than the 9 months it took Theresa May to file the Article 50 letter and the 27 months it took Tory governments under two different prime ministers to ... er ... bring about two post-referendum general elections in the hope that they might be able to find a Parliament supportive of their Brexit efforts. What are they going to do if the next Parliament is hung too and they cling on to office? Propose another election? Because it's obvious what a Labour minority government would do: try to find a consensus that the less Powellite among the Tories could support.
He deserves to be smashed out the park and sent back to his house in France. A total Brexit sabateur.
Let me guess you don't like the cut of his jib?
Banterman displays the dark heart of Brexit.
Leavers are all about wanting to deport people they don't like.
I'm still reeling from the revelation that @HYUFD is of Huguenot stock. But then again he is a diehard Remainer so it just goes to show - you can take the boy out of France...
I am proud to say I do not have an ounce of French heritage in me.
This kind of thing always makes me think of Dame Edna Everage wishing she had a bit of Pole in her.
Lenny Henry, shirley.
Yes, I think the joke was :'Do you have a little Caribbean blood in you?.......Would you like some?"
Neither as crude nor as funny as Dame Edna's.
Black chap in "Event Horizon" makes coffee for the crew, then asks Joely Richardson's character:
"How about you, doc? You want something hot and black inside you?"
The YouGov change is really about turnout . Higher here for Labour than the Tories. Having said that the Labour poll number could have been even higher as overall turnout in the 25 to 49 range is down to just 55% certain to vote . If that improves into the 60+ range that of course would help Labour .
They have changed the turnout weightings??
No it was just the participants intention to vote . The last poll Tories had a small lead here it’s Labour in certain to vote .
He deserves to be smashed out the park and sent back to his house in France. A total Brexit sabateur.
Let me guess you don't like the cut of his jib?
Banterman displays the dark heart of Brexit.
Leavers are all about wanting to deport people they don't like.
I'm still reeling from the revelation that @HYUFD is of Huguenot stock. But then again he is a diehard Remainer so it just goes to show - you can take the boy out of France...
I am proud to say I do not have an ounce of French heritage in me.
This kind of thing always makes me think of Dame Edna Everage wishing she had a bit of Pole in her.
In previous campaigns, the debates have been the lead story on the TV news and BBC News website etc for 3 days - the day before, actual day and day after each debate.
Well today it's nowhere near the main story on the BBC News website with just three hours to go.
OK, this debate is on ITV but that didn't stop the BBC last time.
No question it is much, much less prominent than before.
It's the lead story on the BBC website in my version. Perhaps they do different sites for different regions?
BBC News website headline for me is still "Babies and Mums died ....."
The YouGov change is really about turnout . Higher here for Labour than the Tories. Having said that the Labour poll number could have been even higher as overall turnout in the 25 to 49 range is down to just 55% certain to vote . If that improves into the 60+ range that of course would help Labour .
They have changed the turnout weightings??
No it was just the participants intention to vote . The last poll Tories had a small lead here it’s Labour in certain to vote .
My anecdata is that no-one I’ve met at work today has mentioned politics or the debates once.
In fact, if I didn’t come on here, I’d have forgotten they were on myself.
By contrast, there have been a couple of Prince Andrew jokes.
Yes, the only people who've discussed the election with me in real life are my family, a couple of friends and my fellow local Lib Dem party members. Let's face it... we're a strange bunch here.
It's a shame the Wiki polls listing page is being updated so slowly.
I know it needs to be protected from idiots deliberately posting false info but surely someone competent in the know on here could get it done quickly?
He deserves to be smashed out the park and sent back to his house in France. A total Brexit sabateur.
Let me guess you don't like the cut of his jib?
Banterman displays the dark heart of Brexit.
Leavers are all about wanting to deport people they don't like.
I'm still reeling from the revelation that @HYUFD is of Huguenot stock. But then again he is a diehard Remainer so it just goes to show - you can take the boy out of France...
I am proud to say I do not have an ounce of French heritage in me.
He deserves to be smashed out the park and sent back to his house in France. A total Brexit sabateur.
Let me guess you don't like the cut of his jib?
Banterman displays the dark heart of Brexit.
Leavers are all about wanting to deport people they don't like.
I'm still reeling from the revelation that @HYUFD is of Huguenot stock. But then again he is a diehard Remainer so it just goes to show - you can take the boy out of France...
I am proud to say I do not have an ounce of French heritage in me.
My grandmother is French don’t @ me
That explains a great many things, only someone of French stock would think Yorkshire isn't in the North.
He deserves to be smashed out the park and sent back to his house in France. A total Brexit sabateur.
Let me guess you don't like the cut of his jib?
Banterman displays the dark heart of Brexit.
Leavers are all about wanting to deport people they don't like.
I'm still reeling from the revelation that @HYUFD is of Huguenot stock. But then again he is a diehard Remainer so it just goes to show - you can take the boy out of France...
I am proud to say I do not have an ounce of French heritage in me.
This kind of thing always makes me think of Dame Edna Everage wishing she had a bit of Pole in her.
I want to know which way Labour voters (or any solidly left-wing voters) will go..
(1) Will they “wake up” in the final ten days and do whatever it takes to deny Boris a majority and the Tories they hate a win?
(2) Will they accept Boris is going to win anyway, that his policy platform isn’t too bad (accepting Brexit must happen/hung round the neck of the Tories, even though they despise it) and decide it’s better to apply some radiotherapy to Labour to ensure it loses so badly that, post the election, it purges itself of the Far Left once and for all?
They can’t have both. If me reading of the typical Labour voter is right they’re far more likely to go for (1).
My Dad roughly fits into category (2), though he isn't relaxed about Johnson's policies but he's doing it anyway, and his criticism is more specifically of Corbyn, rather than the Labour left in general.
I think it's possible that Johnson will be so far ahead that tactical voting will look futile.
My view is that the Tories will be very sticky on the downside, in defence, but face a mighty battle to make progress against Labour on the upside.
So very unlikely they’ll drop below 300 seats but probably rather hard work to even get to 340 seats.
The Tories are heading for about 350 to 360 seats as things stand IMO.
As things stand, yes. But who knows, there might be a Rettel Veivoniz in the last week. This is a vicious election. I'll probably close off my lay (at 1.07) of a Tory majority at the end of this week, hopefully at 1.14 or longer, after a Tory dip following tonight's debate - I'll close it sooner if Boris makes a complete balls-up - but maybe at a loss, and then wait until election night.
It's a shame the Wiki polls listing page is being updated so slowly.
I know it needs to be protected from idiots deliberately posting false info but surely someone competent in the know on here could get it done quickly?
Well I wish they'd be a bit slower with changes to the table format - two changes in the last two days make it a right faf to keep scraping the results off into a spreasheet!
My anecdata is that no-one I’ve met at work today has mentioned politics or the debates once.
In fact, if I didn’t come on here, I’d have forgotten they were on myself.
By contrast, there have been a couple of Prince Andrew jokes.
Yes, the only people who've discussed the election with me in real life are my family, a couple of friends and my fellow local Lib Dem party members. Let's face it... we're a strange bunch here.
It's a shame the Wiki polls listing page is being updated so slowly.
I know it needs to be protected from idiots deliberately posting false info but surely someone competent in the know on here could get it done quickly?
Well I wish they'd be a bit slower with changes to the table format - two changes in the last two days make it a right faf to keep scraping the results off into a spreasheet!
Had to get rid of the parties that don’t stand a chance. Quite why Lab is still listed is beyond me.
He deserves to be smashed out the park and sent back to his house in France. A total Brexit sabateur.
Let me guess you don't like the cut of his jib?
Banterman displays the dark heart of Brexit.
Leavers are all about wanting to deport people they don't like.
I'm still reeling from the revelation that @HYUFD is of Huguenot stock. But then again he is a diehard Remainer so it just goes to show - you can take the boy out of France...
I am proud to say I do not have an ounce of French heritage in me.
My grandmother is French don’t @ me
That explains a great many things, only someone of French stock would think Yorkshire isn't in the North.
Well my girlfriend is from Harrogate which is basically a wealthy London Borough.
One alternative that Casino left out is that if you were a labour voter in the North or Midlands, you might simply be a no-show this time around. That way you haven't betrayed your heritage, but you haven't supported Corbyn either.
Interesting that John Mann was happy to bet Curtice on turnout. Maybe that's what he senses on the ground?
That might give some seats to the tories, but maybe not too many.
The key to CON is to get some of the seats we lost to LAB in 2010 and 2015 back (probably won't be Hove or ECA) but maybe places like Crewe, Ipswich, Reading W, even Kensington and Canterbury.
We are not going to be getting all these Northern seats where we haven't won before although maybe a few like Newcastle UL and Wrexham.
He deserves to be smashed out the park and sent back to his house in France. A total Brexit sabateur.
Let me guess you don't like the cut of his jib?
Banterman displays the dark heart of Brexit.
Leavers are all about wanting to deport people they don't like.
I'm still reeling from the revelation that @HYUFD is of Huguenot stock. But then again he is a diehard Remainer so it just goes to show - you can take the boy out of France...
I am proud to say I do not have an ounce of French heritage in me.
This kind of thing always makes me think of Dame Edna Everage wishing she had a bit of Pole in her.
Locally there is a feel that the Lab to LD defectors are 95% back in the Lab column.
BXT party standing seen as a good thing taking more from Con than Lab.
"A bit of a 2017 feel" in respect of position improving since GE called apparently.
Hope they are right.
Myself I reckon a small Tory overall majority nationally.
I fear a thumping Tory majority tbh and hope I am wrong. But if I am not...
Reasons to be cheerful one, two, three:
1. Farage is stuffed for good. 2. The spending/taxation Overton window has moved deep into Labour territory. 3. Corbyn will be gone... his replacement must be better... surely?
One alternative that Casino left out is that if you were a labour voter in the North or Midlands, you might simply be a no-show this time around. That way you haven't betrayed your heritage, but you haven't supported Corbyn either.
Interesting that John Mann was happy to bet Curtice on turnout. Maybe that's what he senses on the ground?
That might give some seats to the tories, but maybe not too many.
If I were guessing I’d say the Tories will drop 3-4 in Scotland net, and lose about 14 to the LDs. And maybe they can make about 30-35 gains from Labour, with about 5 in Wales and 25-30 in England, with a bias towards the Midlands and ultra-Brexity areas.
That gives them about 330-335 seats.
After that I’m really struggling to see how they top that unless the whole Labour hoover dam breaks, which I see no polling evidence for at present.
Comments
Not on the tablet...
Leavers are all about wanting to deport people they don't like.
It was only in the last three weeks in 2017 that the Tories dropped by about 5 points and Labour rose by about 5 points in the polls. But the final polls in 2017 were still underestimating Labour by about 3 points.
China signs defense agreement with South Korea as U.S. angers Seoul with demand for $5 billion troop payment
I'm far from convinced we would be, however.
I wish I hadn't put my bet on CON gain Ogmore now
I mean you wouldn't hear me using this line
Me to a pretty female: Have you got any Yorkshire in you?
Pretty female: No
Me: Well, would you like some?
He's done his best to wreck Brexit despite being elected to deliver it. He won't be missed.
What is it again?
Jacqui Smith said that she and other guests were left “slack jawed” by Prince Andrew’s comments during a conversation at the reception in 2007.
The allegation comes after a separate claim was made by a former Downing Street adviser that the Duke of York used the n-word during a meeting at Buckingham Palace.
The palace has denied that the duke, the subject of intense scrutiny since his BBC interview over his friendship with the sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, used racist language on either occasion.
Mrs Smith, was home secretary from 2007-09, made her disclosure in an LBC podcast in which she was discussing the general election campaign with her fellow broadcaster Iain Dale.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/prince-andrew-was-racist-about-arabs-at-state-banquet-claims-former-home-secretary-jacqui-smith-wrbqjgzxw
I'm hoping Boris turns them in to an absolute bore fest.
So very unlikely they’ll drop below 300 seats but probably rather hard work to even get to 340 seats.
People on previous page talking about a 40-30 poll.
Bizarrely nobody has actually posted what the poll is - all we have is a link to Sam Coates.
Go to his twitter and poll is 42-30!
Can anyone explain?
Surely if a poll is going to be debated it would be worth someone posting what the poll actually is!!!
So very unlikely they’ll drop below 300 seats but probably rather hard work to even get to 340 seats.
(1) Will they “wake up” in the final ten days and do whatever it takes to deny Boris a majority and the Tories they hate a win?
(2) Will they accept Boris is going to win anyway, that his policy platform isn’t too bad (accepting Brexit must happen/hung round the neck of the Tories, even though they despise it) and decide it’s better to apply some radiotherapy to Labour to ensure it loses so badly that, post the election, it purges itself of the Far Left once and for all?
They can’t have both. If me reading of the typical Labour voter is right they’re far more likely to go for (1).
Fifteen minutes is a lot shorter than the 9 months it took Theresa May to file the Article 50 letter and the 27 months it took Tory governments under two different prime ministers to ... er ... bring about two post-referendum general elections in the hope that they might be able to find a Parliament supportive of their Brexit efforts. What are they going to do if the next Parliament is hung too and they cling on to office? Propose another election? Because it's obvious what a Labour minority government would do: try to find a consensus that the less Powellite among the Tories could support.
In fact, if I didn’t come on here, I’d have forgotten they were on myself.
By contrast, there have been a couple of Prince Andrew jokes.
"How about you, doc? You want something hot and black inside you?"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news
I know it needs to be protected from idiots deliberately posting false info but surely someone competent in the know on here could get it done quickly?
I think it's possible that Johnson will be so far ahead that tactical voting will look futile.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.136297311
https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/group_b.6b9db4dc-d1df-4c9d-b9ab-c9a136a91f1e/uk-general-election-seats-markets
BXT party standing seen as a good thing taking more from Con than Lab.
"A bit of a 2017 feel" in respect of position improving since GE called apparently.
Hope they are right.
Myself I reckon a small Tory overall majority nationally.
How do we know you're not an imposter?
Interesting that John Mann was happy to bet Curtice on turnout. Maybe that's what he senses on the ground?
That might give some seats to the tories, but maybe not too many.
Five minute lecture from Caroline Lucas who oddly is in black and white and far too close to the screen.
Weird.
Nothing on BBC website yet but Sky reporting it now has all four rounds exclusively live for the first time.
Who isn’t one of either of their bizarre co-leaders.
Double-weird.
We are not going to be getting all these Northern seats where we haven't won before although maybe a few like Newcastle UL and Wrexham.
20 to 25 gains from LAB might be enough!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shirley,_London
I fear a thumping Tory majority tbh and hope I am wrong. But if I am not...
Reasons to be cheerful one, two, three:
1. Farage is stuffed for good.
2. The spending/taxation Overton window has moved deep into Labour territory.
3. Corbyn will be gone... his replacement must be better... surely?
Con maj 22%, Con largest party but no maj 34%, Lab maj 7%, Lab largest but no maj 8%
Betting markets think Con maj 64%, Lab maj 2%ish.
That gives them about 330-335 seats.
After that I’m really struggling to see how they top that unless the whole Labour hoover dam breaks, which I see no polling evidence for at present.