He deserves to be smashed out the park and sent back to his house in France. A total Brexit sabateur.
Let me guess you don't like the cut of his jib?
Banterman displays the dark heart of Brexit.
Leavers are all about wanting to deport people they don't like.
I'm still reeling from the revelation that @HYUFD is of Huguenot stock. But then again he is a diehard Remainer so it just goes to show - you can take the boy out of France...
I am proud to say I do not have an ounce of French heritage in me.
This kind of thing always makes me think of Dame Edna Everage wishing she had a bit of Pole in her.
My view is that the Tories will be very sticky on the downside, in defence, but face a mighty battle to make progress against Labour on the upside.
So very unlikely they’ll drop below 300 seats but probably rather hard work to even get to 340 seats.
The Tories are heading for about 350 to 360 seats as things stand IMO.
“as things stand”
That’s my concern. There are three very long weeks to go.
Besides which the MoE at the top of the seat pyramid is huge. Any of us will be doing well if we can call the Tories or Labour seat totals within +/- 20 seats, and I’m not confident I can even do it within 40.
He deserves to be smashed out the park and sent back to his house in France. A total Brexit sabateur.
Let me guess you don't like the cut of his jib?
Banterman displays the dark heart of Brexit.
Leavers are all about wanting to deport people they don't like.
I'm still reeling from the revelation that @HYUFD is of Huguenot stock. But then again he is a diehard Remainer so it just goes to show - you can take the boy out of France...
I am proud to say I do not have an ounce of French heritage in me.
This kind of thing always makes me think of Dame Edna Everage wishing she had a bit of Pole in her.
Lenny Henry, shirley.
Sir Lenworth was born in Dudley, I think?
Yep, Shirley is near Croydon.
Shirley is in Solihull mate.
Who is Shirley, why is she in Solihull and above all why did you feel the need to update us on the current status of their copulation?
One alternative that Casino left out is that if you were a labour voter in the North or Midlands, you might simply be a no-show this time around. That way you haven't betrayed your heritage, but you haven't supported Corbyn either.
Interesting that John Mann was happy to bet Curtice on turnout. Maybe that's what he senses on the ground?
That might give some seats to the tories, but maybe not too many.
If I were guessing I’d say the Tories will drop 3-4 in Scotland net, and lose about 14 to the LDs. And maybe they can make about 30-35 gains from Labour, with about 5 in Wales and 25-30 in England, with a bias towards the Midlands and ultra-Brexity areas.
That gives them about 330-335 seats.
After that I’m really struggling to see how they top that unless the whole Labour hoover dam breaks, which I see no polling evidence for at present.
I would be on around the same total, but by losing fewer to the libs and gaining fewer from labour. Based on something extremely anecdotal and emotional I saw this morning. But we shall see.
He deserves to be smashed out the park and sent back to his house in France. A total Brexit sabateur.
Let me guess you don't like the cut of his jib?
Banterman displays the dark heart of Brexit.
Leavers are all about wanting to deport people they don't like.
I'm still reeling from the revelation that @HYUFD is of Huguenot stock. But then again he is a diehard Remainer so it just goes to show - you can take the boy out of France...
I am proud to say I do not have an ounce of French heritage in me.
This kind of thing always makes me think of Dame Edna Everage wishing she had a bit of Pole in her.
Lenny Henry, shirley.
Sir Lenworth was born in Dudley, I think?
Yep, Shirley is near Croydon.
Shirley is in Solihull mate.
Who is Shirley, why is she in Solihull and above all why did you feel the need to update us on the current status of their copulation?
She lives next door to Alice, Alice who the fuck is alice
Ashcroft poll asked people what they think the GE outcome will be:
Con maj 22%, Con largest party but no maj 34%, Lab maj 7%, Lab largest but no maj 8%
Betting markets think Con maj 64%, Lab maj 2%ish.
Hold on a mo you are comparing two different things here!
The betting market does indeed think there is a 64% probability of a Con overall majority. But the poll is saying that '22% of those polled predicted Con overall Majority' The respondents are being asked to pick the most likely winner, not give an estimate of the probability. The two are not the same thing at all.
He deserves to be smashed out the park and sent back to his house in France. A total Brexit sabateur.
Let me guess you don't like the cut of his jib?
Banterman displays the dark heart of Brexit.
Leavers are all about wanting to deport people they don't like.
I'm still reeling from the revelation that @HYUFD is of Huguenot stock. But then again he is a diehard Remainer so it just goes to show - you can take the boy out of France...
I am proud to say I do not have an ounce of French heritage in me.
This kind of thing always makes me think of Dame Edna Everage wishing she had a bit of Pole in her.
Lenny Henry, shirley.
Sir Lenworth was born in Dudley, I think?
Yep, Shirley is near Croydon.
Shirley is in Solihull mate.
Who is Shirley, why is she in Solihull and above all why did you feel the need to update us on the current status of their copulation?
She lives next door to Alice, Alice who the fuck is alice
He deserves to be smashed out the park and sent back to his house in France. A total Brexit sabateur.
Let me guess you don't like the cut of his jib?
Banterman displays the dark heart of Brexit.
Leavers are all about wanting to deport people they don't like.
I'm still reeling from the revelation that @HYUFD is of Huguenot stock. But then again he is a diehard Remainer so it just goes to show - you can take the boy out of France...
I am proud to say I do not have an ounce of French heritage in me.
This kind of thing always makes me think of Dame Edna Everage wishing she had a bit of Pole in her.
Lenny Henry, shirley.
Sir Lenworth was born in Dudley, I think?
Yep, Shirley is near Croydon.
Shirley is in Solihull mate.
Who is Shirley, why is she in Solihull and above all why did you feel the need to update us on the current status of their copulation?
She lives next door to Alice, Alice who the fuck is alice
I want to know which way Labour voters (or any solidly left-wing voters) will go..
(1) Will they “wake up” in the final ten days and do whatever it takes to deny Boris a majority and the Tories they hate a win?
(2) Will they accept Boris is going to win anyway, that his policy platform isn’t too bad (accepting Brexit must happen/hung round the neck of the Tories, even though they despise it) and decide it’s better to apply some radiotherapy to Labour to ensure it loses so badly that, post the election, it purges itself of the Far Left once and for all?
They can’t have both. If me reading of the typical Labour voter is right they’re far more likely to go for (1).
My Dad roughly fits into category (2), though he isn't relaxed about Johnson's policies but he's doing it anyway, and his criticism is more specifically of Corbyn, rather than the Labour left in general.
I think it's possible that Johnson will be so far ahead that tactical voting will look futile.
Alister Jack, the Scottish SoS, saying today that there could be indy ref II if there's a 2021 majority for it in Holyrood, directly contradicting Never, Never, Never BJ. What with the antisemitic candidates and all over the pace on indy, it's becoming harder and harder to distinguish between the Unionist parties.
The key to CON is to get some of the seats we lost to LAB in 2010 and 2015 back (probably won't be Hove or ECA) but maybe places like Crewe, Ipswich, Reading W, even Kensington and Canterbury.
We are not going to be getting all these Northern seats where we haven't won before although maybe a few like Newcastle UL and Wrexham.
20 to 25 gains from LAB might be enough!
I can believe Reading West and Crewe and Nantwich. Derby North should be ok too.
I’m less confident of Kensington and Canterbury.
Ipswich, Bristol North West and Croydon Central maybe maybe not.
Hove, ECA, Enfield Southgate, Portsmouth South and Battersea definitely not.
Alister Jack, the Scottish SoS, saying today that there could be indy ref II if there's a 2021 majority for it in Holyrood, directly contradicting Never, Never, Never BJ. What with the antisemitic candidates and all over the pace on indy, it's becoming harder and harder to distinguish between the Unionist parties.
On topic I expect Grieve to be humiliated like like a client of a dominatrix.
On which topic; my view of Conservative MPs (at least the male ones) has always been distorted by the performance of George Cole as Sir Giles Lynchwood in Blott on the Landscape. The memory of him tied naked to a bed whilst Julia McKenzie forgets he is there and heads off to do the shopping........somehow seems so Borisesque.
The key to CON is to get some of the seats we lost to LAB in 2010 and 2015 back (probably won't be Hove or ECA) but maybe places like Crewe, Ipswich, Reading W, even Kensington and Canterbury.
We are not going to be getting all these Northern seats where we haven't won before although maybe a few like Newcastle UL and Wrexham.
20 to 25 gains from LAB might be enough!
I can believe Reading West and Crewe and Nantwich. Derby North should be ok too.
I’m less confident of Kensington and Canterbury.
Ipswich, Bristol North West and Croydon Central maybe maybe not.
Hove, ECA, Enfield Southgate, Portsmouth South and Battersea definitely not.
Note that I have dropped the Wales part of my model. It didn't reflect the regional swing and was too harsh on the Tories. I am now using a combination of Baxter, Flavible and MRP for Wales. I have made the additive and multiplication models 50/50. I have updated with the two polls tonight.
Con/Lab/LD
England 311/194/27 Wales 15/20/1 Scotland 5/1/5 Total 331/215/33
Alister Jack, the Scottish SoS, saying today that there could be indy ref II if there's a 2021 majority for it in Holyrood, directly contradicting Never, Never, Never BJ. What with the antisemitic candidates and all over the pace on indy, it's becoming harder and harder to distinguish between the Unionist parties.
The Tea Party isn't a racist organisation, though sadly far too many in the GOP in general are racist so there is overlap. The Tea Party includes in its number an African American GOP Senator. The Tea Party started as a movement about economic concerns and the TEA acronym stands for Taxed Enough Already. Indeed read the blurb about the Tea Party on Wikipedia and race/migration don't feature in it at all: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tea_Party_movement
If I was American I would vote Democrat over Donald Trump's vile GOP but I could vote for a Reagan-style GOP and I wish the GOP was more like Tea Party movement and less like the racist nationalist movement that has taken over.
The Tea Party which started organising the moment Obama became president? Yeah, totally not racist.
They objected to his economic policies. Race wasn't discussed. So yes totally not racist.
Or do you think it is not possible to oppose the economic policies of a black leader without mentioning race, migration or anything else without being racist? Did opposing Obama automatically make you racist?
If so did opposing Thatcher automatically make you sexist?
It is the same as Israel. Opposing Israeli control over territories in the West Bank doesn't make you Antisemitic. Vehemently opposing them while having no comment on China and Tibet, Russia and Crimea, Turkey and Cyprus, and so on, however, strongly suggests that your problem is with something about Israel other than the one you are claiming. That might well be that it's full of Jews.
Objecting to Obama's policies doesn't make you a racist. Objecting to Obama policies when you have no problem with functionally identical policies implemented by Bush Jr or Trump, makes you at best a partisan shill who doesn't care about the issues but merely manipulates them for party advantage. At worst, it communicates that you think it's acceptable for white guys to do stuff that it's not OK for black guys to do. Which is, yeah, a bit of a racist position.
But having no way to distinguish between justified criticism that comes from a justified place, and justified criticism that comes from an unjustified place, all we can do is accept the criticism, and be thankful for it. Because the only alternative is to censor all criticism of Obama because he's black, and to censor all criticism of Israel because it's Jewish. That cannot be - not least because if any person or organisation becomes immune from criticism, in time their actions are likely to reflect that. And this places them in an invidious position.
Comments
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shirley,_West_Midlands
That’s my concern. There are three very long weeks to go.
Besides which the MoE at the top of the seat pyramid is huge. Any of us will be doing well if we can call the Tories or Labour seat totals within +/- 20 seats, and I’m not confident I can even do it within 40.
The betting market does indeed think there is a 64% probability of a Con overall majority. But the poll is saying that '22% of those polled predicted Con overall Majority' The respondents are being asked to pick the most likely winner, not give an estimate of the probability. The two are not the same thing at all.
NEW THREAD
360 up (8 refusals 5 Corbyn 3 BREXIT) and I am knackered despite only being the driver
Spell as silver van man now over
2017 circa 400 up for comparison.
If he doesn’t vote Labour I will believe (2) is happening.
I think he will vote Labour. He’s a loyal member of the party through and through.
https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1196859937021943810?s=20
I’m less confident of Kensington and Canterbury.
Ipswich, Bristol North West and Croydon Central maybe maybe not.
Hove, ECA, Enfield Southgate, Portsmouth South and Battersea definitely not.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing
Note that I have dropped the Wales part of my model. It didn't reflect the regional swing and was too harsh on the Tories. I am now using a combination of Baxter, Flavible and MRP for Wales.
I have made the additive and multiplication models 50/50.
I have updated with the two polls tonight.
Con/Lab/LD
England 311/194/27
Wales 15/20/1
Scotland 5/1/5
Total 331/215/33