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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Given that Beaconsfield went Remain the odds on the Tory look

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  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    isam said: "You would have thought so. But are there any examples of bets that don't favour the Remain option recently? Or the Democrats in US?"

    To be fair - he sold LP seats and today took a trading bet againt the CP. (Though I suppose you could argue that both these are pro-LD bets!)
  • It will be see how well viewed these debates are. I think the originals ones in 2010 got 10+ million. I think by 2017, it was down to 4 million. This time around I have literally spoken to nobody who has brought them up, at least last time there had been all the May won't do them, will they put a tub of lard there instead stories for weeks leading up to it.
  • RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Half an hour of tonight's program is going to be about Brexit apparently. I am not entirely sure that is enough time for Jeremy to explain his policy.

    I think one thing that was affect the format is if ITV have the audience silent like they have sometimes in the past, or if they make a noise. If the latter, Corbyn may get laughed at. And that’s terminal.
    Call me old fashioned, but I don't think the audience should be laughing, cheering, booing or whatever.
    Oh I agree with you, but if they do then I think it plays for Boris. He’s most likely to get some laughs.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    malcolmg said:

    Ave_it said:

    malcolmg said:

    New Kantar poll, 14-18 Nov: 18-pt Tory lead
    Con 45% +8
    Labour 27% ±0
    Lib Dem 16% -1
    Green 3% ±0
    Brexit Party 2% -7
    (Change from 7-11 Nov; respondents couldn't choose BXP where stood down – but even if they could only 3%) https://t.co/BdsOD5pQON

    Electoral Calculus Conservative majority 204

    Con 427
    Lab 145
    Lib 20
    Green 1
    SNP 36
    PC 3
    NI 18

    Is Speaker classed within the Labour 145?
    You've clearly omitted to use Baxter's Scottish refinement tool to properly reflect the SNP's localised strength North of the Border. The spread-betters and other betting markets are showing them winning 46-50 seats, whereas you have them on only 36.
    This assumption the SNP will do better than 2017 is interesting...
    what planet have you been on to only be noticing
    Could be Con gain Perth, and Argyll & Bute
    Con is the correct term for them
    PS; Ave you Lost It
    :lol:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Half an hour of tonight's program is going to be about Brexit apparently. I am not entirely sure that is enough time for Jeremy to explain his policy.

    I think one thing that was affect the format is if ITV have the audience silent like they have sometimes in the past, or if they make a noise. If the latter, Corbyn may get laughed at. And that’s terminal.
    Call me old fashioned, but I don't think the audience should be laughing, cheering, booing or whatever.
    So what's the point in having them then? I agree getting a balanced audience is a nightmare but if you are going to have one it really has to be allowed to react to some extent.
    For the party leaders to debate things between each other. A baying audience doesn't help.
  • Brom said:

    I thought Putin was pro-Brexit....is the Banks twitter hack the black swan Labour need? Apparently Carole Conspiracy has them.

    Indeed he was - one of three international Leaders who spoke out prominently in favor of it at the time. The other two I recall were Le Pen and Trump.
    I think Putin would prefer chaos of Jezza even more than Brexit. If people think we will be weak post-Brexit, imagine Corbyn in charge. No military, never fire the nukes, invent Putin around for a chat over tea to trying and get to the bottom of why he would assassinate people on UK soil etc.
    Which side are the Russians supporting in this election? Up to now, they have been pro-Brexit and pro-Tory (for defence cuts, presumably). Is there any evidence they have switched to Labour?
    As the Russian comedian on the Now Show explained they're not for either side, but for maximum disruption. As per the recent thread from @Pulpstar they're probably aiming for ~310 Tory MPs.
    A small landing spot, even for the Russians.
    But yeah it's all hypothetical bullshit for people who spend their lives on twitter.
    Speaking of that, I wonder what happened to Scott P. he's gone from a hundred posts of spam a day to nothing...

    He was temporarily banned for crimes against Radiohead.

    LOL is he still banned? I assumed that was a joke by @rcs1000 and would be lifted within the hour.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    Brom said:

    I thought Putin was pro-Brexit....is the Banks twitter hack the black swan Labour need? Apparently Carole Conspiracy has them.

    Indeed he was - one of three international Leaders who spoke out prominently in favor of it at the time. The other two I recall were Le Pen and Trump.
    I think Putin would prefer chaos of Jezza even more than Brexit. If people think we will be weak post-Brexit, imagine Corbyn in charge. No military, never fire the nukes, invent Putin around for a chat over tea to trying and get to the bottom of why he would assassinate people on UK soil etc.
    Which side are the Russians supporting in this election? Up to now, they have been pro-Brexit and pro-Tory (for defence cuts, presumably). Is there any evidence they have switched to Labour?
    As the Russian comedian on the Now Show explained they're not for either side, but for maximum disruption. As per the recent thread from @Pulpstar they're probably aiming for ~310 Tory MPs.
    A small landing spot, even for the Russians.
    But yeah it's all hypothetical bullshit for people who spend their lives on twitter.
    Speaking of that, I wonder what happened to Scott P. he's gone from a hundred posts of spam a day to nothing...

    He was temporarily banned for crimes against Radiohead.

    LOL is he still banned? I assumed that was a joke by @rcs1000 and would be lifted within the hour.
    Yes it was a joke, though he doesn't seem to have posted much since.
  • RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Half an hour of tonight's program is going to be about Brexit apparently. I am not entirely sure that is enough time for Jeremy to explain his policy.

    I think one thing that was affect the format is if ITV have the audience silent like they have sometimes in the past, or if they make a noise. If the latter, Corbyn may get laughed at. And that’s terminal.
    Call me old fashioned, but I don't think the audience should be laughing, cheering, booing or whatever.
    So what's the point in having them then? I agree getting a balanced audience is a nightmare but if you are going to have one it really has to be allowed to react to some extent.
    For the party leaders to debate things between each other. A baying audience doesn't help.
    I think he means what's the point in having them [the audience]?

    Why not just have the two candidates and the moderator and a film crew, no audience, if you don't want audience engagement?
  • Just had a go on that Ladbrokes buzzword bingo, which will at least give me an incentive to stay awake through this bloody debate.
  • Afternoon all and on thread, I expect Grieve to be hammered even with the tacit support coming to him from the Liberals.

    Separately I am glad to see someone else mentioned Jack W. Is he still alive and kicking, given that in 2017 he was at least 300 years of age! I too miss the musings from his very talented arse. I have to say though that given the current range of polling, his arse might very well be in a permanent state of expulsion!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Half an hour of tonight's program is going to be about Brexit apparently. I am not entirely sure that is enough time for Jeremy to explain his policy.

    I think one thing that was affect the format is if ITV have the audience silent like they have sometimes in the past, or if they make a noise. If the latter, Corbyn may get laughed at. And that’s terminal.
    Call me old fashioned, but I don't think the audience should be laughing, cheering, booing or whatever.
    So what's the point in having them then? I agree getting a balanced audience is a nightmare but if you are going to have one it really has to be allowed to react to some extent.
    For the party leaders to debate things between each other. A baying audience doesn't help.
    I think he means what's the point in having them [the audience]?

    Why not just have the two candidates and the moderator and a film crew, no audience, if you don't want audience engagement?
    Good question :D
  • RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Half an hour of tonight's program is going to be about Brexit apparently. I am not entirely sure that is enough time for Jeremy to explain his policy.

    I think one thing that was affect the format is if ITV have the audience silent like they have sometimes in the past, or if they make a noise. If the latter, Corbyn may get laughed at. And that’s terminal.
    Call me old fashioned, but I don't think the audience should be laughing, cheering, booing or whatever.
    So what's the point in having them then? I agree getting a balanced audience is a nightmare but if you are going to have one it really has to be allowed to react to some extent.
    For the party leaders to debate things between each other. A baying audience doesn't help.
    I think he means what's the point in having them [the audience]?

    Why not just have the two candidates and the moderator and a film crew, no audience, if you don't want audience engagement?
    It’ll be because they want the questions to come “from the audience”. It also adds that extra bit of jeopardy as the two leaders scramble to write down the name of the person who’s asking a question, and panic when it’s one they can’t pronounce.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,604
    edited November 2019
    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Half an hour of tonight's program is going to be about Brexit apparently. I am not entirely sure that is enough time for Jeremy to explain his policy.

    I think one thing that was affect the format is if ITV have the audience silent like they have sometimes in the past, or if they make a noise. If the latter, Corbyn may get laughed at. And that’s terminal.
    Call me old fashioned, but I don't think the audience should be laughing, cheering, booing or whatever.
    So what's the point in having them then? I agree getting a balanced audience is a nightmare but if you are going to have one it really has to be allowed to react to some extent.
    They could applaud politely when someone says something they agree with. If you watch Question Time from the first few years of its existence, that's how the audience used to behave.
  • I think Grieve will lose by a large margin. not even second. This is a safe seat. One of the problems is that too many MPs, like Grieve and Hammond and Letwin and Gauke, thought that 66% of voters in a place like Beaconsfield voted personally for them and not just for the blue rosette. I will be surprised if the Conservatives dont take more than 66% this time. Johnson is a much better campaigner than May, UKIP is gone (effectively), and remember that last time Grieve was on a Leave ticket and most Conservatives in the Home Counties are Leave. this time as well the chaos of Corbyn and the risk of his winning is quite galvanising for all us Tories. So it would be good to have a market on more than 66%. if the Conservatives dont do better here than in 2017. it means the Johnson message of get this nonsense over with and get on with life and avoid Corbyn/LD chaos has not resonated as strongly as I feel it has so far in this campaign (much better than 2017). I think one argument you are hearing from the Conservatives is the last few months of a weak May/Bercow/Benn +assorted minor parties 'government' and Corbyn refusing to take responsibility for anything is what you will get more of if you dont hand Johnson a big majority. we just saw what happens when Labour, the SNP, and the LDs get together and try to govern. I think most people hid their eyes in shame.

    The recurrent theme of voter replies this time when canvassing, time and time again is how much they detest those who have delayed Brext for 3 1/2 f**king years, be they Rory Stewart, Tim Farron or Dominic Grieve - who they revile even more than Bercow. Doesn't look good for Dominic !
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Very tempted by the buzzword bingo. Some of the odds against items seem like sure things to me.

    Which I guess is why Bookies are rich.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    Gabs3 said:

    He said what other people believed, not that they were his views. Seems like a storm in a teacup.
    Imagine there was a storm in your teacup - you'd be really annoyed. Small storms can have big effects.
  • Not watching the debate.

    But I am calling it now.

    The majority of viewers will consider the best potential PM to be Julie Etchingham.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2019
    Also, I heavily tipped and backed the Conservatives in Scotland in 2017 and I would like to assure the board that is NOT what I wanted to happen.

    Berwickshire Roxburgh and Selkirk at 1/2 was criminal.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,604
    edited November 2019

    I’ve been looking back at the 2017 polls and it is striking that although I recall them showing a consistent high Tory lead through to polling day, that’s actually not the case. Even with the Yougov methodology change, the result was there in and around the data.

    The Tory share was actually very slightly understated by the final polls. The main mistake they made was underestimating Labour by about 4% and overestimating UKIP and the Greens.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited November 2019
    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    Like the report commissioned by the Democrats from Christopher Steele into Trump/Russia ties? Or Schiff lobbying for military action after taking money from defence cevidence. Very bizarre. The Dems are clearly out to get him, which to me smells of wanting to get their strike in before the hammer hits them (FISA abuse report)

    You are such a fan of the Donald!
    I dont mind him, I loathe the corrupt Democrats though. Hillary is an out and out crook. I see her foundation just 'lost' 16.8 million dollars

    It's end
    Not at all concerned about the "behind closed doors" conversations with Vlad?
    Not really. I'm sure most governments have behind closed doors conversations most of the time.
    That was unprecedented
    Fair enough but I dont find it particularly worrying. If hed come out and announced russian troops would be based in Alaska then yeah it would have been concerning.
    I find the hatred of him interesting. I mean I have a pathological loathing of the Clintons so I'm not one to talk but its fascinating how polarising he is
    My hatred of Hillary perhaps colours my view but she'll be doing bird before him imo.
    Theres something deeply disturbing about the Clintons for me
    On what evidence? Has she been charged with something?
    Evidence of them being deeply disturbing? Their friends, the people that worked or work for them, the mysteriously deleted emails, Benghazi, the smell of corruption that follows them about, Uranium One, Bill's speaking tour of Russia at the same time.
    That she will do bird before him? My opinion is Durhams investigation (which is now confirmed to be a criminal investigation) will open the flood gates on the previous administration and that Clinton will get swept up in it.
    As it stands she of course has no chance of doing time as she is not charged with any crime. Nor, as it stands, is Trump.
    Of course, there are no "mysteriously deleted emails", if you bothered to inform yourself even slightly you would know this
    33,000 emails that were on Clinton's private server no longer are. Dont get all ad hom on me just because I dont fit your worldview sunshine.
    Edit - and were bleach bitted just after a subpoena for emails about Benghazi was issued. Of course theres nothing suss about that at all.
  • Alistair said:

    Very tempted by the buzzword bingo. Some of the odds against items seem like sure things to me.

    Which I guess is why Bookies are rich.

    If Boris runs through his classic phrases, I'm going to be a wealthy woman from a very small stake.

    Now is not the time to attempt a statesmanlike approach, for the sake of my bank balance.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,710

    It will be see how well viewed these debates are. I think the originals ones in 2010 got 10+ million. I think by 2017, it was down to 4 million. This time around I have literally spoken to nobody who has brought them up, at least last time there had been all the May won't do them, will they put a tub of lard there instead stories for weeks leading up to it.

    In previous campaigns, the debates have been the lead story on the TV news and BBC News website etc for 3 days - the day before, actual day and day after each debate.

    Well today it's nowhere near the main story on the BBC News website with just three hours to go.

    OK, this debate is on ITV but that didn't stop the BBC last time.

    No question it is much, much less prominent than before.
  • Speaking of audience participation, growing up in Australia the debates between the Liberal and Labour leaders each election were accompanied by "the worm" which was shown on screen. The audience typically remained quiet but would change a dial to show how they liked what was being said which would produce the "worm" on screen. Was always quite interesting.

    I believe "the worm" was involved in at least one of 2010 debates [but not live IIRC] but I don't think we've seen it since have we?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited November 2019
    MikeL said:

    It will be see how well viewed these debates are. I think the originals ones in 2010 got 10+ million. I think by 2017, it was down to 4 million. This time around I have literally spoken to nobody who has brought them up, at least last time there had been all the May won't do them, will they put a tub of lard there instead stories for weeks leading up to it.

    In previous campaigns, the debates have been the lead story on the TV news and BBC News website etc for 3 days - the day before, actual day and day after each debate.

    Well today it's nowhere near the main story on the BBC News website with just three hours to go.

    OK, this debate is on ITV but that didn't stop the BBC last time.

    No question it is much, much less prominent than before.
    Last night I noted that the Guardian website had nothing prominent on them, the Times nothing, the Mail one very small article surrounded by loads of Airmiles Andy and I'm a Celeb.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    MikeL said:

    It will be see how well viewed these debates are. I think the originals ones in 2010 got 10+ million. I think by 2017, it was down to 4 million. This time around I have literally spoken to nobody who has brought them up, at least last time there had been all the May won't do them, will they put a tub of lard there instead stories for weeks leading up to it.

    In previous campaigns, the debates have been the lead story on the TV news and BBC News website etc for 3 days - the day before, actual day and day after each debate.

    Well today it's nowhere near the main story on the BBC News website with just three hours to go.

    OK, this debate is on ITV but that didn't stop the BBC last time.

    No question it is much, much less prominent than before.
    I wonder if there is a link between viewing figures for the debates and GE turnout
  • isam said:



    MikeL said:

    It will be see how well viewed these debates are. I think the originals ones in 2010 got 10+ million. I think by 2017, it was down to 4 million. This time around I have literally spoken to nobody who has brought them up, at least last time there had been all the May won't do them, will they put a tub of lard there instead stories for weeks leading up to it.

    In previous campaigns, the debates have been the lead story on the TV news and BBC News website etc for 3 days - the day before, actual day and day after each debate.

    Well today it's nowhere near the main story on the BBC News website with just three hours to go.

    OK, this debate is on ITV but that didn't stop the BBC last time.

    No question it is much, much less prominent than before.
    I wonder if there is a link between viewing figures for the debates and GE turnout
    An inverse one?
  • isam said:



    MikeL said:

    It will be see how well viewed these debates are. I think the originals ones in 2010 got 10+ million. I think by 2017, it was down to 4 million. This time around I have literally spoken to nobody who has brought them up, at least last time there had been all the May won't do them, will they put a tub of lard there instead stories for weeks leading up to it.

    In previous campaigns, the debates have been the lead story on the TV news and BBC News website etc for 3 days - the day before, actual day and day after each debate.

    Well today it's nowhere near the main story on the BBC News website with just three hours to go.

    OK, this debate is on ITV but that didn't stop the BBC last time.

    No question it is much, much less prominent than before.
    I wonder if there is a link between viewing figures for the debates and GE turnout
    Inverse corrolation so far it seems from our limited experience.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Afternoon all and on thread, I expect Grieve to be hammered even with the tacit support coming to him from the Liberals.

    Separately I am glad to see someone else mentioned Jack W. Is he still alive and kicking, given that in 2017 he was at least 300 years of age! I too miss the musings from his very talented arse. I have to say though that given the current range of polling, his arse might very well be in a permanent state of expulsion!

    He has been on kind of off and on for short periods. Not seen him on for a bit but not heard anything to say anything wrong.
  • Does anyone think Boris has anything to gain from the debates, all i can see is him losing ground
  • MikeL said:

    It will be see how well viewed these debates are. I think the originals ones in 2010 got 10+ million. I think by 2017, it was down to 4 million. This time around I have literally spoken to nobody who has brought them up, at least last time there had been all the May won't do them, will they put a tub of lard there instead stories for weeks leading up to it.

    In previous campaigns, the debates have been the lead story on the TV news and BBC News website etc for 3 days - the day before, actual day and day after each debate.

    Well today it's nowhere near the main story on the BBC News website with just three hours to go.

    OK, this debate is on ITV but that didn't stop the BBC last time.

    No question it is much, much less prominent than before.
    Anecdata: I've seen no evidence this election has yet caught the imagination of the voter in the street. Maybe the debate will light some fireworks.
  • Does anyone think Boris has anything to gain from the debates, all i can see is him losing ground

    Credibility for having done them unlike May. He's already gained before they start.
  • Does anyone think Boris has anything to gain from the debates, all i can see is him losing ground

    If he hadn't done them, it would be far worse.
  • Does anyone think Boris has anything to gain from the debates, all i can see is him losing ground

    Credibility for having done them unlike May. He's already gained before they start.
    Very true, however i feel he would have been better fighting for Swinson to compete, If only to split the labour vote
  • Alistair said:

    Also, I heavily tipped and backed the Conservatives in Scotland in 2017 and I would like to assure the board that is NOT what I wanted to happen.

    Berwickshire Roxburgh and Selkirk at 1/2 was criminal.

    That's nothing.

    Betting post – William Hill: Total Conservative Party Seats In Scotland Over/Under Over 9.5 at 20/1 – FILL YOUR BOOTS

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/22/labour-reduce-the-tory-lead-to-23-with-yougov-in-the-most-incredible-polling-night-i-can-remember/

    #LegendaryModesty
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited November 2019

    Does anyone think Boris has anything to gain from the debates, all i can see is him losing ground

    As has been mentioned the people likely to watch are the relatively politically engaged, so the danger for both is more realistically putting off your own voters rather than gaining undecideds.

    That is something both of them are quite capable of.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Stocky said:

    isam said: "You surely have to be wary of following tips form people who only ever fancy what they want to happen?"

    Very true - I`m proud to say that my list of constituency bets includes Tory, Labour and SNP seat wins. No libDems though.

    A bit sad as I vote LibDem myself.

    I seem destined to spend my life paying the LDs membership dues which I raise each election by betting against us making gains.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    DavidL said:

    Half an hour of tonight's program is going to be about Brexit apparently. I am not entirely sure that is enough time for Jeremy to explain his policy.

    Arf!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    DavidL said:

    Half an hour of tonight's program is going to be about Brexit apparently. I am not entirely sure that is enough time for Jeremy to explain his policy.

    Arf!
    He can blame the jews for 20 minutes then wibble about renegotiation for 9 and end with let my people decide
  • DavidL said:

    Half an hour of tonight's program is going to be about Brexit apparently. I am not entirely sure that is enough time for Jeremy to explain his policy.

    Arf!
    He can blame the jews for 20 minutes then wibble about renegotiation for 9 and end with let my people decide
    Labour's policy is basically what used to be the Conservatives' policy. Or one of them anyway.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    DavidL said:

    Half an hour of tonight's program is going to be about Brexit apparently. I am not entirely sure that is enough time for Jeremy to explain his policy.

    Arf!
    He can blame the jews for 20 minutes then wibble about renegotiation for 9 and end with let my people decide
    Don't forget the bit about campaigning against the fantastic new deal they are going to negotiate.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    MikeL said:

    It will be see how well viewed these debates are. I think the originals ones in 2010 got 10+ million. I think by 2017, it was down to 4 million. This time around I have literally spoken to nobody who has brought them up, at least last time there had been all the May won't do them, will they put a tub of lard there instead stories for weeks leading up to it.

    In previous campaigns, the debates have been the lead story on the TV news and BBC News website etc for 3 days - the day before, actual day and day after each debate.

    Well today it's nowhere near the main story on the BBC News website with just three hours to go.

    OK, this debate is on ITV but that didn't stop the BBC last time.

    No question it is much, much less prominent than before.
    Anecdata: I've seen no evidence this election has yet caught the imagination of the voter in the street. Maybe the debate will light some fireworks.
    If, after 9 years of Tory evil, the electorate are not enthused to be rid of them I suggest Labour are heading for the ladies by the docks
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    Half an hour of tonight's program is going to be about Brexit apparently. I am not entirely sure that is enough time for Jeremy to explain his policy.

    Arf!
    He can blame the jews for 20 minutes then wibble about renegotiation for 9 and end with let my people decide
    Don't forget the bit about campaigning against the fantastic new deal they are going to negotiate.
    And letting everyone in Labour campaign based on their imaginary conscience
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,119
    edited November 2019

    MikeL said:

    It will be see how well viewed these debates are. I think the originals ones in 2010 got 10+ million. I think by 2017, it was down to 4 million. This time around I have literally spoken to nobody who has brought them up, at least last time there had been all the May won't do them, will they put a tub of lard there instead stories for weeks leading up to it.

    In previous campaigns, the debates have been the lead story on the TV news and BBC News website etc for 3 days - the day before, actual day and day after each debate.

    Well today it's nowhere near the main story on the BBC News website with just three hours to go.

    OK, this debate is on ITV but that didn't stop the BBC last time.

    No question it is much, much less prominent than before.
    Anecdata: I've seen no evidence this election has yet caught the imagination of the voter in the street. Maybe the debate will light some fireworks.
    Throughout my village and into Llandudno Town Centre not one poster or even any indication a GE is taking place. Quite surreal
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited November 2019

    DavidL said:

    Half an hour of tonight's program is going to be about Brexit apparently. I am not entirely sure that is enough time for Jeremy to explain his policy.

    Arf!
    He can blame the jews for 20 minutes then wibble about renegotiation for 9 and end with let my people decide
    Labour's policy is basically what used to be the Conservatives' policy. Or one of them anyway.
    The tories have never supported a second referendum
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited November 2019

    MikeL said:

    It will be see how well viewed these debates are. I think the originals ones in 2010 got 10+ million. I think by 2017, it was down to 4 million. This time around I have literally spoken to nobody who has brought them up, at least last time there had been all the May won't do them, will they put a tub of lard there instead stories for weeks leading up to it.

    In previous campaigns, the debates have been the lead story on the TV news and BBC News website etc for 3 days - the day before, actual day and day after each debate.

    Well today it's nowhere near the main story on the BBC News website with just three hours to go.

    OK, this debate is on ITV but that didn't stop the BBC last time.

    No question it is much, much less prominent than before.
    Anecdata: I've seen no evidence this election has yet caught the imagination of the voter in the street. Maybe the debate will light some fireworks.
    Throughout my village and into Llandudno Town Centre not one poster or even any indication a GE is taking place. Quite sureal
    Do you want to swap...my letterbox is getting stuffed with Lib Dem propaganda again after a brief 2 day lull.
  • DavidL said:

    Half an hour of tonight's program is going to be about Brexit apparently. I am not entirely sure that is enough time for Jeremy to explain his policy.

    Arf!
    He can blame the jews for 20 minutes then wibble about renegotiation for 9 and end with let my people decide
    Labour's policy is basically what used to be the Conservatives' policy. Or one of them anyway.
    The tories have never supported a second referendum
    Boris Johnson did.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Does anyone think Boris has anything to gain from the debates, all i can see is him losing ground

    Credibility for having done them unlike May. He's already gained before they start.
    Very true, however i feel he would have been better fighting for Swinson to compete, If only to split the labour vote
    I think the lib dem vote will benefit from her not attending. Though that doesn't take into account that they've decided to spend their limited coverage on complaining about it
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    MikeL said:

    It will be see how well viewed these debates are. I think the originals ones in 2010 got 10+ million. I think by 2017, it was down to 4 million. This time around I have literally spoken to nobody who has brought them up, at least last time there had been all the May won't do them, will they put a tub of lard there instead stories for weeks leading up to it.

    In previous campaigns, the debates have been the lead story on the TV news and BBC News website etc for 3 days - the day before, actual day and day after each debate.

    Well today it's nowhere near the main story on the BBC News website with just three hours to go.

    OK, this debate is on ITV but that didn't stop the BBC last time.

    No question it is much, much less prominent than before.
    Anecdata: I've seen no evidence this election has yet caught the imagination of the voter in the street. Maybe the debate will light some fireworks.
    Throughout my village and into Llandudno Town Centre not one poster or even any indication a GE is taking place. Quite surreal
    Labour have placards out but the greens and LD here not a jot yet. Weird.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited November 2019
  • MikeL said:

    It will be see how well viewed these debates are. I think the originals ones in 2010 got 10+ million. I think by 2017, it was down to 4 million. This time around I have literally spoken to nobody who has brought them up, at least last time there had been all the May won't do them, will they put a tub of lard there instead stories for weeks leading up to it.

    In previous campaigns, the debates have been the lead story on the TV news and BBC News website etc for 3 days - the day before, actual day and day after each debate.

    Well today it's nowhere near the main story on the BBC News website with just three hours to go.

    OK, this debate is on ITV but that didn't stop the BBC last time.

    No question it is much, much less prominent than before.
    Anecdata: I've seen no evidence this election has yet caught the imagination of the voter in the street. Maybe the debate will light some fireworks.
    Throughout my village and into Llandudno Town Centre not one poster or even any indication a GE is taking place. Quite sureal
    Do you want to swap...my letterbox is getting stuffed with Lib Dem propaganda again after a brief 2 day lull.
    No thanks
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Quincel said:

    Stocky said:

    isam said: "You surely have to be wary of following tips form people who only ever fancy what they want to happen?"

    Very true - I`m proud to say that my list of constituency bets includes Tory, Labour and SNP seat wins. No libDems though.

    A bit sad as I vote LibDem myself.

    I seem destined to spend my life paying the LDs membership dues which I raise each election by betting against us making gains.
    Come to think of it this is quite a trend of mine. I even gave Change UK a few bob when they founded and then bet they'd win 0 MEPs.

    Maybe I should start donating to parties I don't like?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited November 2019

    JEZZA SURGE IS ON

    twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1196835559836200960

    Clearly the 17 point was an outlier. 40 / 30 seems much more realistic. When you start talking mid 40's for the Tories, I just don't buy it.
  • MikeL said:

    It will be see how well viewed these debates are. I think the originals ones in 2010 got 10+ million. I think by 2017, it was down to 4 million. This time around I have literally spoken to nobody who has brought them up, at least last time there had been all the May won't do them, will they put a tub of lard there instead stories for weeks leading up to it.

    In previous campaigns, the debates have been the lead story on the TV news and BBC News website etc for 3 days - the day before, actual day and day after each debate.

    Well today it's nowhere near the main story on the BBC News website with just three hours to go.

    OK, this debate is on ITV but that didn't stop the BBC last time.

    No question it is much, much less prominent than before.
    Anecdata: I've seen no evidence this election has yet caught the imagination of the voter in the street. Maybe the debate will light some fireworks.
    Throughout my village and into Llandudno Town Centre not one poster or even any indication a GE is taking place. Quite sureal
    Do you want to swap...my letterbox is getting stuffed with Lib Dem propaganda again after a brief 2 day lull.
    No thanks
    Sure...they have lots of lovely bar charts and photos of Jo :-)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,604
    "The Swinson effect: The more voters see of Lib Dem leader, the less they like her, according to new poll"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7700887/Voters-like-Jo-Swinson-according-new-poll.html
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    MikeL said:

    It will be see how well viewed these debates are. I think the originals ones in 2010 got 10+ million. I think by 2017, it was down to 4 million. This time around I have literally spoken to nobody who has brought them up, at least last time there had been all the May won't do them, will they put a tub of lard there instead stories for weeks leading up to it.

    In previous campaigns, the debates have been the lead story on the TV news and BBC News website etc for 3 days - the day before, actual day and day after each debate.

    Well today it's nowhere near the main story on the BBC News website with just three hours to go.

    OK, this debate is on ITV but that didn't stop the BBC last time.

    No question it is much, much less prominent than before.
    Anecdata: I've seen no evidence this election has yet caught the imagination of the voter in the street. Maybe the debate will light some fireworks.
    Throughout my village and into Llandudno Town Centre not one poster or even any indication a GE is taking place. Quite sureal
    Do you want to swap...my letterbox is getting stuffed with Lib Dem propaganda again after a brief 2 day lull.
    The LibDem deluge approach works with some. With many though, it just provokes "Fuck off, "Prime Minister" Jo Swinson."

    Shall we put you down as a maybe?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    JEZZA SURGE IS ON

    twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1196835559836200960

    Clearly the 17 point was an outlier. 40 / 30 seems much more realistic. When you start talking mid 40's for the Tories, I just don't buy it.
    Also an improvement on the 14 points in the previous poll
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,604

    JEZZA SURGE IS ON

    twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1196835559836200960

    Clearly the 17 point was an outlier. 40 / 30 seems much more realistic. When you start talking mid 40's for the Tories, I just don't buy it.
    Instead of looking at individual polls I think it's best to use the average, which continues to be about 42% to 29% after today's polls.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    MikeL said:

    It will be see how well viewed these debates are. I think the originals ones in 2010 got 10+ million. I think by 2017, it was down to 4 million. This time around I have literally spoken to nobody who has brought them up, at least last time there had been all the May won't do them, will they put a tub of lard there instead stories for weeks leading up to it.

    In previous campaigns, the debates have been the lead story on the TV news and BBC News website etc for 3 days - the day before, actual day and day after each debate.

    Well today it's nowhere near the main story on the BBC News website with just three hours to go.

    OK, this debate is on ITV but that didn't stop the BBC last time.

    No question it is much, much less prominent than before.
    Anecdata: I've seen no evidence this election has yet caught the imagination of the voter in the street. Maybe the debate will light some fireworks.
    Throughout my village and into Llandudno Town Centre not one poster or even any indication a GE is taking place. Quite sureal
    Do you want to swap...my letterbox is getting stuffed with Lib Dem propaganda again after a brief 2 day lull.
    The LibDem deluge approach works with some. With many though, it just provokes "Fuck off, "Prime Minister" Jo Swinson."

    Shall we put you down as a maybe?
    Maybe half a dozen leaflets will change your mind?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156

    kamski said:

    Gabs3 said:

    eek said:

    Julian Assange is off to the USA for the rest of his days
    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1196776396078637057

    Where he will receive a pardon for everything in return for the rest of the dirt he has on the dems
    Assange would not have had to wait 7 years if he faced justice after credible accusations of sd just show how far the US has fallen in terms of the rule of law. The current presidency is the most crooked in history, easily surpassing Nixon.
    In what sfo apparently. The rot in America runs right through the Democrats and parts ot actual corruption?
    Trump ""University" - fraud
    Public money being spent at Trump hotels etc - corrupf passing laws and regulations which directly help him and his super-rich friends.
    And massive conflicts of interest.
    and so on

    Apart from that it's not just "I don't like him" he's an actual white supremacist, climate-crisis denier, but if another Republican had won (Ted Cruz anyone?) they would probably have been just as bad. Your point about "due process" is rubbish, the House is investigating, if it goes to trial in the Senate due process will apply.

    As for Clinton using a private email server for her government emails, it shows her willingness to think that rules don't apply to her, and reflects badly on her character, but is hardly evidence of corruption (though she may well be corrupt).
    All sounds standard fayre for US politics. How rich has Pelosi got out of being in politics?
    His climate stance is an abvidence for it and it was never associated with him as a very public figure in the 40 years before he stood.
    I struggle to see where he is any worse than any other US president or politician all of whom get very rich out of being in Washington. And as long as he hates Hillary the crook I'll back him over her any day of the week.
    Can you clarify please?

    Are you saying she is a crook and he isn't? Or are you saying he's a bigger and therefore better crook?

    On which grounds do you find him preferable?
    No I'm saying I despise the Clintons and their corruption. Trump I just consider to be your run of the mill, get rich and acrew everyone else, politician like the rest of the US Washington appens over there.
    He "promised"?

    Not another politician who doesn't keep promises!
    Do any of them? I'm not sure why they bother
    It works.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Have had card stating postal vote slips will be sent out from Tuesday 26th November.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited November 2019
    Andy_JS said:

    JEZZA SURGE IS ON

    twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1196835559836200960

    Clearly the 17 point was an outlier. 40 / 30 seems much more realistic. When you start talking mid 40's for the Tories, I just don't buy it.
    Instead of looking at individual polls I think it's best to use the average, which continues to be about 42% to 29% after today's polls.
    What I meant to say was I think 40 / 30 is more realistic result as things stand. Perhaps Tories will squeeze out 42, Labour might get stuck on 30, they might be able to squeeze a bit more (although surely the Lib Dems can't remain as invisible as this).
  • MikeL said:

    It will be see how well viewed these debates are. I think the originals ones in 2010 got 10+ million. I think by 2017, it was down to 4 million. This time around I have literally spoken to nobody who has brought them up, at least last time there had been all the May won't do them, will they put a tub of lard there instead stories for weeks leading up to it.

    In previous campaigns, the debates have been the lead story on the TV news and BBC News website etc for 3 days - the day before, actual day and day after each debate.

    Well today it's nowhere near the main story on the BBC News website with just three hours to go.

    OK, this debate is on ITV but that didn't stop the BBC last time.

    No question it is much, much less prominent than before.
    Anecdata: I've seen no evidence this election has yet caught the imagination of the voter in the street. Maybe the debate will light some fireworks.
    If, after 9 years of Tory evil, the electorate are not enthused to be rid of them I suggest Labour are heading for the ladies by the docks
    Seems a bit harsh on the ladies . . .
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156
    True, but it would swing it now if they crashed that hard. Give it a week
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    That should set things up nicely for an increased Con lead with YouGov for Mega Polling Saturday! :D
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    I guess the Tiries would prefer the polls to settle in the 9 to 10 percent lead area, gives an incentive to vote. 18 percent and 'its all over' sets in
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156

    JEZZA SURGE IS ON

    twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1196835559836200960

    Clearly the 17 point was an outlier. 40 / 30 seems much more realistic. When you start talking mid 40's for the Tories, I just don't buy it.
    Agreed. I think well get circa 40/36 or 40/32 if labour do badly.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Updated plot -- https://imgur.com/A3iD3GQ

    Not really a Corbyn surge, I'm afraid. :p
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited November 2019
    Lol, twitter is suddenly not convinced YouGov is a Tory conspiracy and is in fact accurately reflecting the inevitable trend. Colour me shocked
  • kle4 said:

    JEZZA SURGE IS ON

    twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1196835559836200960

    Clearly the 17 point was an outlier. 40 / 30 seems much more realistic. When you start talking mid 40's for the Tories, I just don't buy it.
    Agreed. I think well get circa 40/36 or 40/32 if labour do badly.
    28 for others is quite high in such a polarised landscape?

    I hope 43/31
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    RobD said:

    148grss said:
    It'll be interesting to see the overlap between people who revel in this hacking and those that got so worked up about the news of the world hacking phones.
    There is a presumption of privacy regarding the contents of your mobile's answering machine.
    There is no presumption of privacy regarding tweets.
  • kle4 said:

    JEZZA SURGE IS ON

    twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1196835559836200960

    Clearly the 17 point was an outlier. 40 / 30 seems much more realistic. When you start talking mid 40's for the Tories, I just don't buy it.
    Agreed. I think well get circa 40/36 or 40/32 if labour do badly.
    What makes you think they will get to 36%. The past two weeks it seems like they have hit a ceiling of 30%.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    kle4 said:

    JEZZA SURGE IS ON

    twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1196835559836200960

    Clearly the 17 point was an outlier. 40 / 30 seems much more realistic. When you start talking mid 40's for the Tories, I just don't buy it.
    Agreed. I think well get circa 40/36 or 40/32 if labour do badly.
    28 for others is quite high in such a polarised landscape?

    I hope 43/31
    I think 42 to low 30s is about the mark but with the north and Midlands worse than trend for labour
  • Lol, twitter is suddenly not convinced YouGov is a Tory conspiracy and is in fact accurately reflecting the inevitable trend. Colour me shocked

    Wait until they unravel the weightings, they will probably declare Labour are in fact ahead.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Obviously I haven't looked at the Arron Banks direct messages, but those that have seem quite surprised by the degree of palliness between the Guardian's acerbic Marina Hyde, beloved of Remainers everywhere, and Arron Banks.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,604

    I guess the Tiries would prefer the polls to settle in the 9 to 10 percent lead area, gives an incentive to vote. 18 percent and 'its all over' sets in

    Yes, the Tories are paradoxically more likely to hold seats like Wimbledon and Wokingham vs the LDs if there's a chance of Corbyn entering Downing Street.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    JEZZA SURGE IS ON

    twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1196835559836200960

    Clearly the 17 point was an outlier. 40 / 30 seems much more realistic. When you start talking mid 40's for the Tories, I just don't buy it.
    As ever, better to have outliers that are in your favour.
  • RobD said:

    Updated plot -- https://imgur.com/A3iD3GQ

    Not really a Corbyn surge, I'm afraid. :p

    Not yet crossover.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,254
    edited November 2019

    Does anyone think Boris has anything to gain from the debates, all i can see is him losing ground

    Credibility for having done them unlike May. He's already gained before they start.
    Very true, however i feel he would have been better fighting for Swinson to compete, If only to split the labour vote
    I think the lib dem vote will benefit from her not attending. Though that doesn't take into account that they've decided to spend their limited coverage on complaining about it
    I think Jo Kate Swinson is being successfully inspired by her middle initial at present.

    The "we are an inclusive" party is not working when she is so keen to exclude people.


  • kle4 said:

    JEZZA SURGE IS ON

    twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1196835559836200960

    Clearly the 17 point was an outlier. 40 / 30 seems much more realistic. When you start talking mid 40's for the Tories, I just don't buy it.
    Agreed. I think well get circa 40/36 or 40/32 if labour do badly.
    28 for others is quite high in such a polarised landscape?

    I hope 43/31
    I think 42 to low 30s is about the mark but with the north and Midlands worse than trend for labour
    Areas we have been told are trending worse for Labour: North, Midlands, Scotland, Wales.

    Where is going good for Labour?
  • tlg86 said:

    JEZZA SURGE IS ON

    twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1196835559836200960

    Clearly the 17 point was an outlier. 40 / 30 seems much more realistic. When you start talking mid 40's for the Tories, I just don't buy it.
    As ever, better to have outliers that are in your favour.
    I will be less nervous if the "outliers" keep coming right up to polling day.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    JEZZA SURGE IS ON

    twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1196835559836200960

    Clearly the 17 point was an outlier. 40 / 30 seems much more realistic. When you start talking mid 40's for the Tories, I just don't buy it.
    A ten-point lead is pretty much identical to the one at the same stage in 2017.

    As in 2017, we have wide disparities between the leads reported in different polls - larger than they should be on the basis of just sampling error.

    I don't remember a "Eureka" moment when the pollsters realised what had gone wrong in 2017 and corrected it.
  • Chris said:

    JEZZA SURGE IS ON

    twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1196835559836200960

    Clearly the 17 point was an outlier. 40 / 30 seems much more realistic. When you start talking mid 40's for the Tories, I just don't buy it.
    A ten-point lead is pretty much identical to the one at the same stage in 2017.

    As in 2017, we have wide disparities between the leads reported in different polls - larger than they should be on the basis of just sampling error.

    I don't remember a "Eureka" moment when the pollsters realised what had gone wrong in 2017 and corrected it.
    There was momentum in 2017 though, the pollsters did catch an ongoing trend towards Labour. So far that isn't repeating itself.

    Courtesy of RobD:
    https://imgur.com/A3iD3GQ
  • Chris said:

    JEZZA SURGE IS ON

    twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1196835559836200960

    Clearly the 17 point was an outlier. 40 / 30 seems much more realistic. When you start talking mid 40's for the Tories, I just don't buy it.
    A ten-point lead is pretty much identical to the one at the same stage in 2017.

    As in 2017, we have wide disparities between the leads reported in different polls - larger than they should be on the basis of just sampling error.

    I don't remember a "Eureka" moment when the pollsters realised what had gone wrong in 2017 and corrected it.
    The trend is very different to 2017 though.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Chris said:

    JEZZA SURGE IS ON

    twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1196835559836200960

    Clearly the 17 point was an outlier. 40 / 30 seems much more realistic. When you start talking mid 40's for the Tories, I just don't buy it.
    A ten-point lead is pretty much identical to the one at the same stage in 2017.

    As in 2017, we have wide disparities between the leads reported in different polls - larger than they should be on the basis of just sampling error.

    I don't remember a "Eureka" moment when the pollsters realised what had gone wrong in 2017 and corrected it.
    The only pollsters who did anything to counter the over weighting of the politically engaged were YouGov with their constituency polls werent they?
  • Chris said:

    JEZZA SURGE IS ON

    twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1196835559836200960

    Clearly the 17 point was an outlier. 40 / 30 seems much more realistic. When you start talking mid 40's for the Tories, I just don't buy it.
    A ten-point lead is pretty much identical to the one at the same stage in 2017.

    As in 2017, we have wide disparities between the leads reported in different polls - larger than they should be on the basis of just sampling error.

    I don't remember a "Eureka" moment when the pollsters realised what had gone wrong in 2017 and corrected it.
    The trend is very different to 2017 though.
    Thankfully!
  • Is it just me, or is there something reminiscent of the LBJ / relations with a goat story about this one?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/19/jo-swinson-warns-dangers-fake-news-story-attacking-squirrels/

    I'm not sure drawing attention to this is the right approach, tbh...
  • Chris said:

    JEZZA SURGE IS ON

    twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1196835559836200960

    Clearly the 17 point was an outlier. 40 / 30 seems much more realistic. When you start talking mid 40's for the Tories, I just don't buy it.
    A ten-point lead is pretty much identical to the one at the same stage in 2017.

    As in 2017, we have wide disparities between the leads reported in different polls - larger than they should be on the basis of just sampling error.

    I don't remember a "Eureka" moment when the pollsters realised what had gone wrong in 2017 and corrected it.
    The trend is very different to 2017 though.
    Thankfully!
    I will be genuinely glad when this GE is over, provided Jezza doesn't win. I am not fan of Bonking Boris, but the far left dangerous bollocks spouted especially from McDonnell gives me sleepness nights.
  • nico67 said:

    The Lib Dems will be very relieved with the Kantar poll showing them on 16% .

    At what point does their messaging go to “do you trust the Tories with a massive majority “.

    Yes, but I'd like to see more polls with us over 15% before I get too excited. I'd happily take 15% at this point - essentially a doubling of our 2017 showing. 15% might not seem very ambitious but it would be heady stuff coming from where we were.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited November 2019
    Animal_pb said:

    Is it just me, or is there something reminiscent of the LBJ / relations with a goat story about this one?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/19/jo-swinson-warns-dangers-fake-news-story-attacking-squirrels/

    I'm not sure drawing attention to this is the right approach, tbh...

    No its not just you. You like Lyndon Johnson want to see her deny it.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/books/news/this-hunter-s-thompson-passage-is-particularly-poignant-in-light-of-that-david-cameron-and-the-pig-10510787.html

    Though it also reminds me of the 'He blows goats' cards in Wayne's World.
  • He deserves to be smashed out the park and sent back to his house in France. A total Brexit sabateur.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Chris said:

    JEZZA SURGE IS ON

    twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1196835559836200960

    Clearly the 17 point was an outlier. 40 / 30 seems much more realistic. When you start talking mid 40's for the Tories, I just don't buy it.
    A ten-point lead is pretty much identical to the one at the same stage in 2017.

    As in 2017, we have wide disparities between the leads reported in different polls - larger than they should be on the basis of just sampling error.

    I don't remember a "Eureka" moment when the pollsters realised what had gone wrong in 2017 and corrected it.
    The trend is very different to 2017 though.
    Thankfully!
    I will be genuinely glad when this GE is over, provided Jezza doesn't win. I am not fan of Bonking Boris, but the far left dangerous bollocks spouted especially from McDonnell gives me sleepness nights.
    Wait til we see their manifesto....
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Quincel said:

    MikeL said:

    It will be see how well viewed these debates are. I think the originals ones in 2010 got 10+ million. I think by 2017, it was down to 4 million. This time around I have literally spoken to nobody who has brought them up, at least last time there had been all the May won't do them, will they put a tub of lard there instead stories for weeks leading up to it.

    In previous campaigns, the debates have been the lead story on the TV news and BBC News website etc for 3 days - the day before, actual day and day after each debate.

    Well today it's nowhere near the main story on the BBC News website with just three hours to go.

    OK, this debate is on ITV but that didn't stop the BBC last time.

    No question it is much, much less prominent than before.
    Anecdata: I've seen no evidence this election has yet caught the imagination of the voter in the street. Maybe the debate will light some fireworks.
    Throughout my village and into Llandudno Town Centre not one poster or even any indication a GE is taking place. Quite sureal
    Do you want to swap...my letterbox is getting stuffed with Lib Dem propaganda again after a brief 2 day lull.
    The LibDem deluge approach works with some. With many though, it just provokes "Fuck off, "Prime Minister" Jo Swinson."

    Shall we put you down as a maybe?
    Maybe half a dozen leaflets will change your mind?
    Only half a dozen ...

    Oh, you mean, daily, right ?
  • Chris said:

    JEZZA SURGE IS ON

    twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1196835559836200960

    Clearly the 17 point was an outlier. 40 / 30 seems much more realistic. When you start talking mid 40's for the Tories, I just don't buy it.
    A ten-point lead is pretty much identical to the one at the same stage in 2017.

    As in 2017, we have wide disparities between the leads reported in different polls - larger than they should be on the basis of just sampling error.

    I don't remember a "Eureka" moment when the pollsters realised what had gone wrong in 2017 and corrected it.
    The trend is very different to 2017 though.
    Thankfully!
    I will be genuinely glad when this GE is over, provided Jezza doesn't win. I am not fan of Bonking Boris, but the far left dangerous bollocks spouted especially from McDonnell gives me sleepness nights.
    Wait til we see their manifesto....
    This is the sort of crap they're saying when they want to win votes and not scare the horses. Imagine what they'd do in a budget given free reign if they managed to do so?

    Or have a rainbow coalition all demanding pork for their own interests?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    Quincel said:

    MikeL said:

    It will be see how well viewed these debates are. I think the originals ones in 2010 got 10+ million. I think by 2017, it was down to 4 million. This time around I have literally spoken to nobody who has brought them up, at least last time there had been all the May won't do them, will they put a tub of lard there instead stories for weeks leading up to it.

    In previous campaigns, the debates have been the lead story on the TV news and BBC News website etc for 3 days - the day before, actual day and day after each debate.

    Well today it's nowhere near the main story on the BBC News website with just three hours to go.

    OK, this debate is on ITV but that didn't stop the BBC last time.

    No question it is much, much less prominent than before.
    Anecdata: I've seen no evidence this election has yet caught the imagination of the voter in the street. Maybe the debate will light some fireworks.
    Throughout my village and into Llandudno Town Centre not one poster or even any indication a GE is taking place. Quite sureal
    Do you want to swap...my letterbox is getting stuffed with Lib Dem propaganda again after a brief 2 day lull.
    The LibDem deluge approach works with some. With many though, it just provokes "Fuck off, "Prime Minister" Jo Swinson."

    Shall we put you down as a maybe?
    Maybe half a dozen leaflets will change your mind?
    Only half a dozen ...

    Oh, you mean, daily, right ?
    Now we know why they want to plant more trees.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    Animal_pb said:

    Is it just me, or is there something reminiscent of the LBJ / relations with a goat story about this one?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/19/jo-swinson-warns-dangers-fake-news-story-attacking-squirrels/

    I'm not sure drawing attention to this is the right approach, tbh...

    I am on the tablet so unfortunately I can't post a link to the Blackadder Speckled Jim pigeon killer episode. Damn.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,769
    viewcode said:

    RobD said:

    148grss said:
    It'll be interesting to see the overlap between people who revel in this hacking and those that got so worked up about the news of the world hacking phones.
    There is a presumption of privacy regarding the contents of your mobile's answering machine.
    There is no presumption of privacy regarding tweets.
    Aren't these direct messages (private) though? If tweets no need to hack as already public.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    kle4 said:

    JEZZA SURGE IS ON

    twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1196835559836200960

    Clearly the 17 point was an outlier. 40 / 30 seems much more realistic. When you start talking mid 40's for the Tories, I just don't buy it.
    Agreed. I think well get circa 40/36 or 40/32 if labour do badly.
    28 for others is quite high in such a polarised landscape?

    I hope 43/31
    I think 42 to low 30s is about the mark but with the north and Midlands worse than trend for labour
    Areas we have been told are trending worse for Labour: North, Midlands, Scotland, Wales.

    Where is going good for Labour?
    They could end up flattening out - about 25 to 30% every region (except scotland)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Banterman said:

    He deserves to be smashed out the park and sent back to his house in France. A total Brexit sabateur.

    Let me guess you don't like the cut of his jib?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    Obviously I haven't looked at the Arron Banks direct messages, but those that have seem quite surprised by the degree of palliness between the Guardian's acerbic Marina Hyde, beloved of Remainers everywhere, and Arron Banks.

    One of the reasons why I get so irate at the "Leavers are poor people/Remainers are metropolitan elite" meme is that both sides were run by extraordinarily wealthy individuals and should be better expressed as a civil war between two sides of the elite. I am not in the least bit surprised by the friendship you describe.
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