It'll be interesting to see the overlap between people who revel in this hacking and those that got so worked up about the news of the world hacking phones.
I mean, there is a difference between people hacking powerless people for profit, and powerful people being hacked. Granted, the reason for this hack is unclear, and possibly could be election meddling from overseas, but also important and couldn't have happened to a nicer guy.
(...)and now we discover he did not vote to repeal Section 28, so the question is, is he also a homophobe like so many of the people he seems to identify with or at least is uncritical of (Putin)? Perhaps it is simply because he wishes to suck up to Islamists, or because he is hopeless and forgot to attend.
Jeremy Corbyn was probably paired with a Tory supporter of the said clause. That's normal for Commons votes. Nothing to do with Islamists, Putin, hopelessness, forgetfulness, or anything else you want to chuck at him.
Is John Thomas a joke name, like Silius Soddus or Biggus Dickus?
What's funny about Biggus dickus? I have a friend.....
I had a lecturer at uni called Richard Little (who is now Emeritus Professor at Bristol Uni). You can imagine the rest....
Temping for the Manpower Services Commission (that in itself ages the anecdote and me), I do remember a trainee called Aaron Mycock who was enjoyed greatly.
I once came across a German gentleman called Erik Koch. He was more often referred to on most communications as Herr E Koch
He should be. That rate is on the left-hand side of the Laffer curve where the gradient is positive.
If no other countries have reduced rates below 19% and the rate in other countries is higher how do we know what the actual Laffer curve is?
We don't, for sure, but we can make an educated guess that no company is going to make a big fuss about whether it's 19% or 17%, so it won't alter behaviour.
In the particular case of Corporation Tax it's especially important to look at the tax as a whole - the UK raised the total tax take over the last few years by lowering the headline rate and at the same time tightening up on loopholes and anomalies. There may be more to do on the latter but the headline rate is now competitive by international standards and there are higher priorities - the government is right to prioritise business rates for reform, they are seriously distorting.
Business rate reform would be a far better argument than saying the money would be spent on the NHS.
Sadly the Tories said the money would go to the NHS so where does the money that would allow Business Rate reform come from?
It's quite possible that there will be winners and losers from business rate reforms rather than an overall reduction. For example, Amazon might find their rates bill go up quote significantly but high street retailers will see them go down and mixed mode retailers will see a small reduction.
I thought Putin was pro-Brexit....is the Banks twitter hack the black swan Labour need? Apparently Carole Conspiracy has them.
Indeed he was - one of three international Leaders who spoke out prominently in favor of it at the time. The other two I recall were Le Pen and Trump.
I think Putin would prefer chaos of Jezza even more than Brexit. If people think we will be weak post-Brexit, imagine Corbyn in charge. No military, never fire the nukes, invent Putin around for a chat over tea to trying and get to the bottom of why he would assassinate people on UK soil etc.
Which side are the Russians supporting in this election? Up to now, they have been pro-Brexit and pro-Tory (for defence cuts, presumably). Is there any evidence they have switched to Labour?
As the Russian comedian on the Now Show explained they're not for either side, but for maximum disruption. As per the recent thread from @Pulpstar they're probably aiming for ~310 Tory MPs.
New Kantar poll, 14-18 Nov: 18-pt Tory lead Con 45% +8 Labour 27% ±0 Lib Dem 16% -1 Green 3% ±0 Brexit Party 2% -7 (Change from 7-11 Nov; respondents couldn't choose BXP where stood down – but even if they could only 3%) https://t.co/BdsOD5pQON
Electoral Calculus Conservative majority 204
Con 427 Lab 145 Lib 20 Green 1 SNP 36 PC 3 NI 18
Is Speaker classed within the Labour 145?
You've clearly omitted to use Baxter's Scottish refinement tool to properly reflect the SNP's localised strength North of the Border. The spread-betters and other betting markets are showing them winning 46-50 seats, whereas you have them on only 36.
It'll be interesting to see the overlap between people who revel in this hacking and those that got so worked up about the news of the world hacking phones.
There's always been a public interest defence for breaching privacy. Maybe there is something in Banks' private communications to justify a breach of privacy, and perhaps not.
There certainly wasn't in listening to the voicemails on Milly Dowler's phone.
The problem in the Dowler case was that potentially it interfered with police investigations and created the false impression Dowler may still have been alive, which was tough on the parents.
Edit: oh, and Levenson has been largely ignored, so presumably it's pretty much ok for everyone to carry on as before.
Anything over 6 points should give a slim majority, anything over 12 points and the Labour defence dam will break. 18 points is beyond 1997 levels. It won't happen.
What this poll should bring is crossover with 2017. 2 weeks out then we started to consistently see single digit Tory leads of 4-8 points across a number of pollsters. If we're not getting those this time next week then I will start believing in a double digit Tory lead is the reality.
I thought Putin was pro-Brexit....is the Banks twitter hack the black swan Labour need? Apparently Carole Conspiracy has them.
Indeed he was - one of three international Leaders who spoke out prominently in favor of it at the time. The other two I recall were Le Pen and Trump.
I think Putin would prefer chaos of Jezza even more than Brexit. If people think we will be weak post-Brexit, imagine Corbyn in charge. No military, never fire the nukes, invent Putin around for a chat over tea to trying and get to the bottom of why he would assassinate people on UK soil etc.
Which side are the Russians supporting in this election? Up to now, they have been pro-Brexit and pro-Tory (for defence cuts, presumably). Is there any evidence they have switched to Labour?
As the Russian comedian on the Now Show explained they're not for either side, but for maximum disruption. As per the recent thread from @Pulpstar they're probably aiming for ~310 Tory MPs.
The most interesting interview I heard on Russian meddling in American election, was somebody who worked for Obama. They talked about how Russia started 2+ years before Trump even announced really ramping things up, in which they built up all these large facebook groups and popular twitter accounts, which specalized in all sorts of different groups of people e.g. Black Christians, Anti-Vaxers etc.
Then they would post stuff related to that topic, but on a regular basis they would throw in a hand grenade e.g. post about a racist attack on a black people near a church by a white guy, at the same time in another group be posting a racist attack on a white person by a black gang.
Indeed Mr Brokenwheel, and the far left doesn't have a great record on gay rights. The company they keep includes Vladimir Putin and a number of Islamist homophobes. Indeed it may have been the latter group that Corbyn was trying to please when he was "washing his hair" at the time of the repeal.
You'll have to point out the far-left people who keep company with Putin. It's been over twenty years since the Russian nomenklatura were even nominally Communist.
And as for this frantic reconning of the right-wing as being homophile, I'd point out that IIRC the ANC and Sinn Fein had lesbian and gay sections as far back as the 1980s. Going "woo,literally some Tories weren't homophobic in the Noughties" isn't as impressive as you think.
I am not voting Tory, so have no inclination to defend Johnson or the revolting bunch of lightweight far-rights he has on his frontbench. I was attacking Corbyn, the most inept person to ever hold the title LoTO, where the word "Leader" could not be more inaccurate.
The point is that Corbyn, either through his child-like contrarian instincts or because he secretly hates Jews, has put himself in a position to have the question asked whether he is anti-Semetic, and now we discover he did not vote to repeal Section 28, so the question is, is he also a homophobe like so many of the people he seems to identify with or at least is uncritical of (Putin)? Perhaps it is simply because he wishes to suck up to Islamists, or because he is hopeless and forgot to attend.
He's selective in his just causes and you're right, there is something rather child-like, or adolescent about that. I haven't bothered to check but I bet he didn't have much to say about Robert Mugabe, for example.
You can excuse fashionable sympathies in a young man, but in a LotO of 70+ years? It's disappointing.
Corbyn's only mention of Mugabe in the Commons, ever, was when he was complaining about Foreign Sec D Miliband apologising to Israel for the arrest warrant issued for Tzipi Livni. He asked "Would the same pressures apply if somebody applied for an arrest warrant on Robert Mugabe?" Hansard link
I thought Putin was pro-Brexit....is the Banks twitter hack the black swan Labour need? Apparently Carole Conspiracy has them.
Indeed he was - one of three international Leaders who spoke out prominently in favor of it at the time. The other two I recall were Le Pen and Trump.
I think Putin would prefer chaos of Jezza even more than Brexit. If people think we will be weak post-Brexit, imagine Corbyn in charge. No military, never fire the nukes, invent Putin around for a chat over tea to trying and get to the bottom of why he would assassinate people on UK soil etc.
Which side are the Russians supporting in this election? Up to now, they have been pro-Brexit and pro-Tory (for defence cuts, presumably). Is there any evidence they have switched to Labour?
As the Russian comedian on the Now Show explained they're not for either side, but for maximum disruption. As per the recent thread from @Pulpstar they're probably aiming for ~310 Tory MPs.
Staines clearly thinks there is some potentially damaging stuff in there as he has quickly posted to defend the DM involving him, then posted how this is all likely illegal but there will be embarrassed politicians and journos.
The situation for other publications currently going through hacked DMs – of which their journalists were neither the sender or the recipient – is more complicated. There is no public interest defence for the hacking. There is no evidence of crimes – apart from the act of hacking. There is a lot of stuff that is embarrassing for politicians and journalists. Am looking at you, Ms Hyde…
I thought Putin was pro-Brexit....is the Banks twitter hack the black swan Labour need? Apparently Carole Conspiracy has them.
Indeed he was - one of three international Leaders who spoke out prominently in favor of it at the time. The other two I recall were Le Pen and Trump.
I think Putin would prefer chaos of Jezza even more than Brexit. If people think we will be weak post-Brexit, imagine Corbyn in charge. No military, never fire the nukes, invent Putin around for a chat over tea to trying and get to the bottom of why he would assassinate people on UK soil etc.
Which side are the Russians supporting in this election? Up to now, they have been pro-Brexit and pro-Tory (for defence cuts, presumably). Is there any evidence they have switched to Labour?
As the Russian comedian on the Now Show explained they're not for either side, but for maximum disruption. As per the recent thread from @Pulpstar they're probably aiming for ~310 Tory MPs.
The most interesting interview I heard on Russian meddling in American election, was somebody who worked for Obama. They talked about how Russia started 2+ years before Trump even announced really ramping things up, in which they built up all these large facebook groups and popular twitter accounts, which specalized in all sorts of different groups of people e.g. Black Christians, Anti-Vaxers etc.
Then they would post stuff related to that topic, but on a regular basis they would throw in a hand grenade e.g. post about a racist attack on a black people near a church by a white guy, at the same time in another group be posting a racist attack on a white person by a black gang.
I thought Putin was pro-Brexit....is the Banks twitter hack the black swan Labour need? Apparently Carole Conspiracy has them.
Indeed he was - one of three international Leaders who spoke out prominently in favor of it at the time. The other two I recall were Le Pen and Trump.
I think Putin would prefer chaos of Jezza even more than Brexit. If people think we will be weak post-Brexit, imagine Corbyn in charge. No military, never fire the nukes, invent Putin around for a chat over tea to trying and get to the bottom of why he would assassinate people on UK soil etc.
Which side are the Russians supporting in this election? Up to now, they have been pro-Brexit and pro-Tory (for defence cuts, presumably). Is there any evidence they have switched to Labour?
As the Russian comedian on the Now Show explained they're not for either side, but for maximum disruption. As per the recent thread from @Pulpstar they're probably aiming for ~310 Tory MPs.
The most interesting interview I heard on Russian meddling in American election, was somebody who worked for Obama. They talked about how Russia started 2+ years before Trump even announced really ramping things up, in which they built up all these large facebook groups and popular twitter accounts, which specalized in all sorts of different groups of people e.g. Black Christians, Anti-Vaxers etc.
Then they would post stuff related to that topic, but on a regular basis they would throw in a hand grenade e.g. post about a racist attack on a black people near a church by a white guy, at the same time in another group be posting a racist attack on a white person by a black gang.
Makes sense - exploiting the quickly aroused.
Early on you don't want to exploit you want to identify for later targetting.
Does anyone know what EC have done with their modelling? For fun I simply kept everyone the same as 2017 but took 5 off labour and gave them to the LD's (and swapped BXP and UKIP). This was the prediction which shows hardly any change:
National Prediction: Conservative short 6 of majority gaining 3 seats and losing 1!
It'll be interesting to see the overlap between people who revel in this hacking and those that got so worked up about the news of the world hacking phones.
Its weird how certain people used to worship everything Assange did, then weren't so keen in him publishing hacked info all of a sudden.
Regarding the News of the World furore, it's also odd how they weren't really interested in the Trinity Mirror Group's similar activity of an even larger scale. It does make you wonder why there was such a different response to the two cases.
I thought Putin was pro-Brexit....is the Banks twitter hack the black swan Labour need? Apparently Carole Conspiracy has them.
Indeed he was - one of three international Leaders who spoke out prominently in favor of it at the time. The other two I recall were Le Pen and Trump.
I think Putin would prefer chaos of Jezza even more than Brexit. If people think we will be weak post-Brexit, imagine Corbyn in charge. No military, never fire the nukes, invent Putin around for a chat over tea to trying and get to the bottom of why he would assassinate people on UK soil etc.
Which side are the Russians supporting in this election? Up to now, they have been pro-Brexit and pro-Tory (for defence cuts, presumably). Is there any evidence they have switched to Labour?
As the Russian comedian on the Now Show explained they're not for either side, but for maximum disruption. As per the recent thread from @Pulpstar they're probably aiming for ~310 Tory MPs.
A small landing spot, even for the Russians.
I made this point to a friend. If you're like Carole Cadwalldr and you assume Russians/Jews/The Tories (delete as applicable) are the root of all evil then surely a hung parliament would be what the enemies of the country would be hoping for. A workable Brexit deal agreed on both sides probably wouldn't make it into the sequel for V for Vendetta.
But yeah it's all hypothetical bullshit for people who spend their lives on twitter. Speaking of that, I wonder what happened to Scott P. he's gone from a hundred posts of spam a day to nothing...
Election rule question. My daughter is a student in Wales. She has registered to vote both there (no postal vote) and at home (with a postal vote). Since she will be at Uni on the 12th she wants to vote there. I'm assuming that there is no problem with this provided she just votes in person in Wales and destroys the postal vote - is that correct?
Russian influence: here is 200 pages from the US Senate. Our equivalent is being suppressed/held up for due process by Boris, but I doubt there will be much detail in it. https://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/FinalRR.pdf
The most interesting interview I heard on Russian meddling in American election, was somebody who worked for Obama. They talked about how Russia started 2+ years before Trump even announced really ramping things up, in which they built up all these large facebook groups and popular twitter accounts, which specalized in all sorts of different groups of people e.g. Black Christians, Anti-Vaxers etc.
Then they would post stuff related to that topic, but on a regular basis they would throw in a hand grenade e.g. post about a racist attack on a black people near a church by a white guy, at the same time in another group be posting a racist attack on a white person by a black gang.
Nation state level trolling, but in the original sense of the word not the way we know use trolling to mean posting abuse. It is cheap, it is effective, and it helps Russia achieve its chief aim of dividing their foes.
It's worth taking a look at the Sporting Index 25-10-0 constituency markets. They will settle as Winner = 25pts, Runner-up = 10pts, Third or lower = 0pts.
This is a way to bet on who comes second in various constituencies. I think there is some value there, for example I've sold Anne Milton (Ind) in Guildford @ 3, and Labour in Isle of Wight @ 4 - i.e. I'm betting that they will not get to second place (and of course not to first place, which would give me a big loss).
New Kantar poll, 14-18 Nov: 18-pt Tory lead Con 45% +8 Labour 27% ±0 Lib Dem 16% -1 Green 3% ±0 Brexit Party 2% -7 (Change from 7-11 Nov; respondents couldn't choose BXP where stood down – but even if they could only 3%) https://t.co/BdsOD5pQON
Electoral Calculus Conservative majority 204
Con 427 Lab 145 Lib 20 Green 1 SNP 36 PC 3 NI 18
Is Speaker classed within the Labour 145?
You've clearly omitted to use Baxter's Scottish refinement tool to properly reflect the SNP's localised strength North of the Border. The spread-betters and other betting markets are showing them winning 46-50 seats, whereas you have them on only 36.
This assumption the SNP will do better than 2017 is interesting...
I thought Putin was pro-Brexit....is the Banks twitter hack the black swan Labour need? Apparently Carole Conspiracy has them.
Indeed he was - one of three international Leaders who spoke out prominently in favor of it at the time. The other two I recall were Le Pen and Trump.
I think Putin would prefer chaos of Jezza even more than Brexit. If people think we will be weak post-Brexit, imagine Corbyn in charge. No military, never fire the nukes, invent Putin around for a chat over tea to trying and get to the bottom of why he would assassinate people on UK soil etc.
Which side are the Russians supporting in this election? Up to now, they have been pro-Brexit and pro-Tory (for defence cuts, presumably). Is there any evidence they have switched to Labour?
As the Russian comedian on the Now Show explained they're not for either side, but for maximum disruption. As per the recent thread from @Pulpstar they're probably aiming for ~310 Tory MPs.
A small landing spot, even for the Russians.
I made this point to a friend. If you're like Carole Cadwalldr and you assume Russians/Jews/The Tories (delete as applicable) are the root of all evil then surely a hung parliament would be what the enemies of the country would be hoping for. A workable Brexit deal agreed on both sides probably wouldn't make it into the sequel for V for Vendetta.
But yeah it's all hypothetical bullshit for people who spend their lives on twitter. Speaking of that, I wonder what happened to Scott P. he's gone from a hundred posts of spam a day to nothing...
Scott is a racing friend of mine. I'd be anxious to hear news of him. Seemed well enough last time we met.
If anyone thinks Labour don't have an anti-semitism problem you only need to hop over to mumsnet. Lots of first time posting Corbynista accounts telling Jewish forummers there is no anti semitism and that they are wrong and explaining why Israel is so awful. I believe Mumsnet have had to step in.
That Kantar poll really does suggest that wherever they came from, the Brexit Party voters just want Brexit done - even if it means voting Tory.
(But voting for Boris isn't REALLY voting Tory...dad and grandad and great-grandad won't really be spinning in their Labour-til-I-die graves if I vote for Boris....just this once....)
I've forgotten, wasn't the letter to Brussels supposed to humiliate Boris Johnson and lead to a resurgent Brexit Party?
*innocent face*
No, no,no, no. It was hiding away from scrutiny and not taking part in the debates that was supposed to do that. We are not much more than a week in and I think we are already on about plan H as to why it is inevitable that Boris is going to crash and burn.
The Tea Party isn't a racist organisation, though sadly far too many in the GOP in general are racist so there is overlap. The Tea Party includes in its number an African American GOP Senator. The Tea Party started as a movement about economic concerns and the TEA acronym stands for Taxed Enough Already. Indeed read the blurb about the Tea Party on Wikipedia and race/migration don't feature in it at all: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tea_Party_movement
If I was American I would vote Democrat over Donald Trump's vile GOP but I could vote for a Reagan-style GOP and I wish the GOP was more like Tea Party movement and less like the racist nationalist movement that has taken over.
The Tea Party which started organising the moment Obama became president? Yeah, totally not racist.
They objected to his economic policies. Race wasn't discussed. So yes totally not racist.
Or do you think it is not possible to oppose the economic policies of a black leader without mentioning race, migration or anything else without being racist? Did opposing Obama automatically make you racist?
If so did opposing Thatcher automatically make you sexist?
It is the same as Israel. Opposing Israeli control over territories in the West Bank doesn't make you Antisemitic. Vehemently opposing them while having no comment on China and Tibet, Russia and Crimea, Turkey and Cyprus, and so on, however, strongly suggests that your problem is with something about Israel other than the one you are claiming. That might well be that it's full of Jews.
Objecting to Obama's policies doesn't make you a racist. Objecting to Obama policies when you have no problem with functionally identical policies implemented by Bush Jr or Trump, makes you at best a partisan shill who doesn't care about the issues but merely manipulates them for party advantage. At worst, it communicates that you think it's acceptable for white guys to do stuff that it's not OK for black guys to do. Which is, yeah, a bit of a racist position.
Objecting to Obama getting involved in UK politics while having no problem with Trump doing it is the racist giveaway.
Why is it racist, rather than normal political partisanship?
I thought Putin was pro-Brexit....is the Banks twitter hack the black swan Labour need? Apparently Carole Conspiracy has them.
Indeed he was - one of three international Leaders who spoke out prominently in favor of it at the time. The other two I recall were Le Pen and Trump.
I think Putin would prefer chaos of Jezza even more than Brexit. If people think we will be weak post-Brexit, imagine Corbyn in charge. No military, never fire the nukes, invent Putin around for a chat over tea to trying and get to the bottom of why he would assassinate people on UK soil etc.
Which side are the Russians supporting in this election? Up to now, they have been pro-Brexit and pro-Tory (for defence cuts, presumably). Is there any evidence they have switched to Labour?
As the Russian comedian on the Now Show explained they're not for either side, but for maximum disruption. As per the recent thread from @Pulpstar they're probably aiming for ~310 Tory MPs.
A small landing spot, even for the Russians.
I made this point to a friend. If you're like Carole Cadwalldr and you assume Russians/Jews/The Tories (delete as applicable) are the root of all evil then surely a hung parliament would be what the enemies of the country would be hoping for. A workable Brexit deal agreed on both sides probably wouldn't make it into the sequel for V for Vendetta.
But yeah it's all hypothetical bullshit for people who spend their lives on twitter. Speaking of that, I wonder what happened to Scott P. he's gone from a hundred posts of spam a day to nothing...
It is odd to come on PB and find that half of twitter hasn't be downloaded onto here.
That Kantar poll really does suggest that wherever they came from, the Brexit Party voters just want Brexit done - even if it means voting Tory.
(But voting for Boris isn't REALLY voting Tory...dad and grandad and great-grandad won't really be spinning in their Labour-til-I-die graves if I vote for Boris....just this once....)
It says something when current polls indicate the Beast of Bolsover is at risk of not becoming Father of the House.
Election rule question. My daughter is a student in Wales. She has registered to vote both there (no postal vote) and at home (with a postal vote). Since she will be at Uni on the 12th she wants to vote there. I'm assuming that there is no problem with this provided she just votes in person in Wales and destroys the postal vote - is that correct?
Yes, that’s what I used to do. You can choose but must pick one.
I have no idea if the changes to electoral registration have affected this, b it if she is relying on the Uni to register her then tell her to double check, as ours was incompetent.
I think Grieve will lose by a large margin. not even second. This is a safe seat. One of the problems is that too many MPs, like Grieve and Hammond and Letwin and Gauke, thought that 66% of voters in a place like Beaconsfield voted personally for them and not just for the blue rosette. I will be surprised if the Conservatives dont take more than 66% this time. Johnson is a much better campaigner than May, UKIP is gone (effectively), and remember that last time Grieve was on a Leave ticket and most Conservatives in the Home Counties are Leave. this time as well the chaos of Corbyn and the risk of his winning is quite galvanising for all us Tories. So it would be good to have a market on more than 66%. if the Conservatives dont do better here than in 2017. it means the Johnson message of get this nonsense over with and get on with life and avoid Corbyn/LD chaos has not resonated as strongly as I feel it has so far in this campaign (much better than 2017). I think one argument you are hearing from the Conservatives is the last few months of a weak May/Bercow/Benn +assorted minor parties 'government' and Corbyn refusing to take responsibility for anything is what you will get more of if you dont hand Johnson a big majority. we just saw what happens when Labour, the SNP, and the LDs get together and try to govern. I think most people hid their eyes in shame.
I thought Putin was pro-Brexit....is the Banks twitter hack the black swan Labour need? Apparently Carole Conspiracy has them.
Indeed he was - one of three international Leaders who spoke out prominently in favor of it at the time. The other two I recall were Le Pen and Trump.
I think Putin would prefer chaos of Jezza even more than Brexit. If people think we will be weak post-Brexit, imagine Corbyn in charge. No military, never fire the nukes, invent Putin around for a chat over tea to trying and get to the bottom of why he would assassinate people on UK soil etc.
Which side are the Russians supporting in this election? Up to now, they have been pro-Brexit and pro-Tory (for defence cuts, presumably). Is there any evidence they have switched to Labour?
As the Russian comedian on the Now Show explained they're not for either side, but for maximum disruption. As per the recent thread from @Pulpstar they're probably aiming for ~310 Tory MPs.
A small landing spot, even for the Russians.
But yeah it's all hypothetical bullshit for people who spend their lives on twitter. Speaking of that, I wonder what happened to Scott P. he's gone from a hundred posts of spam a day to nothing...
He was temporarily banned for crimes against Radiohead.
I’ve been looking back at the 2017 polls and it is striking that although I recall them showing a consistent high Tory lead through to polling day, that’s actually not the case. Even with the Yougov methodology change, the result was there in and around the data.
Marquee_Mark said: "(But voting for Boris isn't REALLY voting Tory...dad and grandad and great-grandad won't really be spinning in their Labour-til-I-die graves if I vote for Boris....just this once....)"
Though what you write is an important factor as to why LP voters will vote CP this time, another is that they may see "getting us out of EU" as a "higher" calling on their vote than stubbornly sticking to the LP (on this exceptional occasion).
The latest claims that Corbyn is homophobic are quite helpful to him and Labour. Like the equally silly claims that Corbyn is "hinduphobic", they might make people look at the accusations of anti-semitism in a different light.
Half an hour of tonight's program is going to be about Brexit apparently. I am not entirely sure that is enough time for Jeremy to explain his policy.
I think one thing that was affect the format is if ITV have the audience silent like they have sometimes in the past, or if they make a noise. If the latter, Corbyn may get laughed at. And that’s terminal.
The Tea Party isn't a racist organisation, though sadly far too many in the GOP in general are racist so there is overlap. The Tea Party includes in its number an African American GOP Senator. The Tea Party started as a movement about economic concerns and the TEA acronym stands for Taxed Enough Already. Indeed read the blurb about the Tea Party on Wikipedia and race/migration don't feature in it at all: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tea_Party_movement
If I was American I would vote Democrat over Donald Trump's vile GOP but I could vote for a Reagan-style GOP and I wish the GOP was more like Tea Party movement and less like the racist nationalist movement that has taken over.
The Tea Party which started organising the moment Obama became president? Yeah, totally not racist.
They objected to his economic policies. Race wasn't discussed. So yes totally not racist.
Or do you think it is not possible to oppose the economic policies of a black leader without mentioning race, migration or anything else without being racist? Did opposing Obama automatically make you racist?
If so did opposing Thatcher automatically make you sexist?
It is the same as Israel. Opposing Israeli control over territories in the West Bank doesn't make you Antisemitic. Vehemently opposing them while having no comment on China and Tibet, Russia and Crimea, Turkey and Cyprus, and so on, however, strongly suggests that your problem is with something about Israel other than the one you are claiming. That might well be that it's full of Jews.
Objecting to Obama's policies doesn't make you a racist. Objecting to Obama policies when you have no problem with functionally identical policies implemented by Bush Jr or Trump, makes you at best a partisan shill who doesn't care about the issues but merely manipulates them for party advantage. At worst, it communicates that you think it's acceptable for white guys to do stuff that it's not OK for black guys to do. Which is, yeah, a bit of a racist position.
Indeed but Obama wasn't implementing the same policies as Bush Jr and Trump. As I'd hope everyone would agree 😕. Obama is a million times better than Trump.
If someone object to Obama and Hilary and Sanders and Warren etc etc etc then are they racist? If they only object to Obama but not Sanders etc then yes I'd agree that would be the same.
I think Grieve will lose by a large margin. not even second. This is a safe seat. One of the problems is that too many MPs, like Grieve and Hammond and Letwin and Gauke, thought that 66% of voters in a place like Beaconsfield voted personally for them and not just for the blue rosette. I will be surprised if the Conservatives dont take more than 66% this time. Johnson is a much better campaigner than May, UKIP is gone (effectively), and remember that last time Grieve was on a Leave ticket and most Conservatives in the Home Counties are Leave. this time as well the chaos of Corbyn and the risk of his winning is quite galvanising for all us Tories. So it would be good to have a market on more than 66%. if the Conservatives dont do better here than in 2017. it means the Johnson message of get this nonsense over with and get on with life and avoid Corbyn/LD chaos has not resonated as strongly as I feel it has so far in this campaign (much better than 2017). I think one argument you are hearing from the Conservatives is the last few months of a weak May/Bercow/Benn +assorted minor parties 'government' and Corbyn refusing to take responsibility for anything is what you will get more of if you dont hand Johnson a big majority. we just saw what happens when Labour, the SNP, and the LDs get together and try to govern. I think most people hid their eyes in shame.
I must say that I normally have a great deal of respect for Mike on odds but to suggest 5/2 is a bit long for Grieve strikes me as not much short of bizarre.
New Kantar poll, 14-18 Nov: 18-pt Tory lead Con 45% +8 Labour 27% ±0 Lib Dem 16% -1 Green 3% ±0 Brexit Party 2% -7 (Change from 7-11 Nov; respondents couldn't choose BXP where stood down – but even if they could only 3%) https://t.co/BdsOD5pQON
Electoral Calculus Conservative majority 204
Con 427 Lab 145 Lib 20 Green 1 SNP 36 PC 3 NI 18
Is Speaker classed within the Labour 145?
You've clearly omitted to use Baxter's Scottish refinement tool to properly reflect the SNP's localised strength North of the Border. The spread-betters and other betting markets are showing them winning 46-50 seats, whereas you have them on only 36.
This assumption the SNP will do better than 2017 is interesting...
If anyone thinks Labour don't have an anti-semitism problem you only need to hop over to mumsnet. Lots of first time posting Corbynista accounts telling Jewish forummers there is no anti semitism and that they are wrong and explaining why Israel is so awful. I believe Mumsnet have had to step in.
Half an hour of tonight's program is going to be about Brexit apparently. I am not entirely sure that is enough time for Jeremy to explain his policy.
Given it is ITV, don't they normally have an ITV2 spin-off for their big shows hosted by some z-celeb reality tv star where they try and fill another hour of cheap tv will vacuous nonsense. Perhaps he could go and there and explain it.
I think Grieve will lose by a large margin. not even second. This is a safe seat. One of the problems is that too many MPs, like Grieve and Hammond and Letwin and Gauke, thought that 66% of voters in a place like Beaconsfield voted personally for them and not just for the blue rosette. I will be surprised if the Conservatives dont take more than 66% this time. Johnson is a much better campaigner than May, UKIP is gone (effectively), and remember that last time Grieve was on a Leave ticket and most Conservatives in the Home Counties are Leave. this time as well the chaos of Corbyn and the risk of his winning is quite galvanising for all us Tories. So it would be good to have a market on more than 66%. if the Conservatives dont do better here than in 2017. it means the Johnson message of get this nonsense over with and get on with life and avoid Corbyn/LD chaos has not resonated as strongly as I feel it has so far in this campaign (much better than 2017). I think one argument you are hearing from the Conservatives is the last few months of a weak May/Bercow/Benn +assorted minor parties 'government' and Corbyn refusing to take responsibility for anything is what you will get more of if you dont hand Johnson a big majority. we just saw what happens when Labour, the SNP, and the LDs get together and try to govern. I think most people hid their eyes in shame.
I must say that I normally have a great deal of respect for Mike on odds but to suggest 5/2 is a bit long for Grieve strikes me as not much short of bizarre.
You surely have to be wary of following tips from people whose every value bet coincides with what they want to happen?
I thought Putin was pro-Brexit....is the Banks twitter hack the black swan Labour need? Apparently Carole Conspiracy has them.
Indeed he was - one of three international Leaders who spoke out prominently in favor of it at the time. The other two I recall were Le Pen and Trump.
I think Putin would prefer chaos of Jezza even more than Brexit. If people think we will be weak post-Brexit, imagine Corbyn in charge. No military, never fire the nukes, invent Putin around for a chat over tea to trying and get to the bottom of why he would assassinate people on UK soil etc.
Which side are the Russians supporting in this election? Up to now, they have been pro-Brexit and pro-Tory (for defence cuts, presumably). Is there any evidence they have switched to Labour?
As the Russian comedian on the Now Show explained they're not for either side, but for maximum disruption. As per the recent thread from @Pulpstar they're probably aiming for ~310 Tory MPs.
A small landing spot, even for the Russians.
But yeah it's all hypothetical bullshit for people who spend their lives on twitter. Speaking of that, I wonder what happened to Scott P. he's gone from a hundred posts of spam a day to nothing...
He was temporarily banned for crimes against Radiohead.
New Kantar poll, 14-18 Nov: 18-pt Tory lead Con 45% +8 Labour 27% ±0 Lib Dem 16% -1 Green 3% ±0 Brexit Party 2% -7 (Change from 7-11 Nov; respondents couldn't choose BXP where stood down – but even if they could only 3%) https://t.co/BdsOD5pQON
Electoral Calculus Conservative majority 204
Con 427 Lab 145 Lib 20 Green 1 SNP 36 PC 3 NI 18
Is Speaker classed within the Labour 145?
You've clearly omitted to use Baxter's Scottish refinement tool to properly reflect the SNP's localised strength North of the Border. The spread-betters and other betting markets are showing them winning 46-50 seats, whereas you have them on only 36.
This assumption the SNP will do better than 2017 is interesting...
I think Grieve will lose by a large margin. not even second. This is a safe seat. One of the problems is that too many MPs, like Grieve and Hammond and Letwin and Gauke, thought that 66% of voters in a place like Beaconsfield voted personally for them and not just for the blue rosette. I will be surprised if the Conservatives dont take more than 66% this time. Johnson is a much better campaigner than May, UKIP is gone (effectively), and remember that last time Grieve was on a Leave ticket and most Conservatives in the Home Counties are Leave. this time as well the chaos of Corbyn and the risk of his winning is quite galvanising for all us Tories. So it would be good to have a market on more than 66%. if the Conservatives dont do better here than in 2017. it means the Johnson message of get this nonsense over with and get on with life and avoid Corbyn/LD chaos has not resonated as strongly as I feel it has so far in this campaign (much better than 2017). I think one argument you are hearing from the Conservatives is the last few months of a weak May/Bercow/Benn +assorted minor parties 'government' and Corbyn refusing to take responsibility for anything is what you will get more of if you dont hand Johnson a big majority. we just saw what happens when Labour, the SNP, and the LDs get together and try to govern. I think most people hid their eyes in shame.
I must say that I normally have a great deal of respect for Mike on odds but to suggest 5/2 is a bit long for Grieve strikes me as not much short of bizarre.
You surely have to be wary of following tips from people whose every value bet coincides with what they want to happen?
If anyone thinks Labour don't have an anti-semitism problem you only need to hop over to mumsnet. Lots of first time posting Corbynista accounts telling Jewish forummers there is no anti semitism and that they are wrong and explaining why Israel is so awful. I believe Mumsnet have had to step in.
Like the report commissioned by the Democrats from Christopher Steele into Trump/Russia ties? Or Schiff lobbying for military action after taking money from defence contractors? It's the same thing, they call ithave first hand evidence. Very bizarre. The Dems are clearly out to get him, which to me smells of wanting to get their strike in before the hammer hits them (FISA abuse report)
You are such a fan of the Donald!
I dont mind him, I loathe the corrupt Democrats though. Hillary is an out and out crook. I see her foundation just 'lost' 16.8 million dollars
It's a case of the enemy of my enemy is my friend
Not at all concerned about the "behind closed doors" conversations with Vlad?
Not really. I'm sure most governments have behind closed doors conversations most of the time.
That was unprecedented
Fair enough but I dont find it particularly worrying. If hed come out and announced russian troops would be based in Alaska then yeah it would have been concerning. I find the hatred of him interesting. I mean I have a pathological loathing of the Clintons so I'm not one to talk but its fascinating how polarising he is
My hatred of Hillary perhaps colours my view but she'll be doing bird before him imo. Theres something deeply disturbing about the Clintons for me
On what evidence? Has she been charged with something?
Evidence of them being deeply disturbing? Their friends, the people that worked or work for them, the mysteriously deleted emails, Benghazi, the smell of corruption that follows them about, Uranium One, Bill's speaking tour of Russia at the same time. That she will do bird before him? My opinion is Durhams investigation (which is now confirmed to be a criminal investigation) will open the flood gates on the previous administration and that Clinton will get swept up in it. As it stands she of course has no chance of doing time as she is not charged with any crime. Nor, as it stands, is Trump.
Of course, there are no "mysteriously deleted emails", if you bothered to inform yourself even slightly you would know this
Half an hour of tonight's program is going to be about Brexit apparently. I am not entirely sure that is enough time for Jeremy to explain his policy.
Given it is ITV, don't they normally have an ITV2 spin-off for their big shows hosted by some z-celeb reality tv star where they try and fill another hour of cheap tv will vacuous nonsense. Perhaps he could go and there and explain it.
ITV 10pm has Nicola Sturgeon, Jo Swinson and Nigel Farage reacting to the debate.
New Kantar poll, 14-18 Nov: 18-pt Tory lead Con 45% +8 Labour 27% ±0 Lib Dem 16% -1 Green 3% ±0 Brexit Party 2% -7 (Change from 7-11 Nov; respondents couldn't choose BXP where stood down – but even if they could only 3%) https://t.co/BdsOD5pQON
Electoral Calculus Conservative majority 204
Con 427 Lab 145 Lib 20 Green 1 SNP 36 PC 3 NI 18
Is Speaker classed within the Labour 145?
You've clearly omitted to use Baxter's Scottish refinement tool to properly reflect the SNP's localised strength North of the Border. The spread-betters and other betting markets are showing them winning 46-50 seats, whereas you have them on only 36.
This assumption the SNP will do better than 2017 is interesting...
what planet have you been on to only be noticing
Could be Con gain Perth, and Argyll & Bute
Con is the correct term for them PS; Ave you Lost It
Half an hour of tonight's program is going to be about Brexit apparently. I am not entirely sure that is enough time for Jeremy to explain his policy.
Given it is ITV, don't they normally have an ITV2 spin-off for their big shows hosted by some z-celeb reality tv star where they try and fill another hour of cheap tv will vacuous nonsense. Perhaps he could go and there and explain it.
ITV 10pm has Nicola Sturgeon, Jo Swinson and Nigel Farage reacting to the debate.
Oh so they are following their standard approach then ;-) They are all surely just going to fight among themselves to see who can call Boris and Jezza the worse names?
Half an hour of tonight's program is going to be about Brexit apparently. I am not entirely sure that is enough time for Jeremy to explain his policy.
I think one thing that was affect the format is if ITV have the audience silent like they have sometimes in the past, or if they make a noise. If the latter, Corbyn may get laughed at. And that’s terminal.
Call me old fashioned, but I don't think the audience should be laughing, cheering, booing or whatever.
I think Grieve will lose by a large margin. not even second. This is a safe seat. One of the problems is that too many MPs, like Grieve and Hammond and Letwin and Gauke, thought that 66% of voters in a place like Beaconsfield voted personally for them and not just for the blue rosette. I will be surprised if the Conservatives dont take more than 66% this time. Johnson is a much better campaigner than May, UKIP is gone (effectively), and remember that last time Grieve was on a Leave ticket and most Conservatives in the Home Counties are Leave. this time as well the chaos of Corbyn and the risk of his winning is quite galvanising for all us Tories. So it would be good to have a market on more than 66%. if the Conservatives dont do better here than in 2017. it means the Johnson message of get this nonsense over with and get on with life and avoid Corbyn/LD chaos has not resonated as strongly as I feel it has so far in this campaign (much better than 2017). I think one argument you are hearing from the Conservatives is the last few months of a weak May/Bercow/Benn +assorted minor parties 'government' and Corbyn refusing to take responsibility for anything is what you will get more of if you dont hand Johnson a big majority. we just saw what happens when Labour, the SNP, and the LDs get together and try to govern. I think most people hid their eyes in shame.
I must say that I normally have a great deal of respect for Mike on odds but to suggest 5/2 is a bit long for Grieve strikes me as not much short of bizarre.
You surely have to be wary of following tips from people whose every value bet coincides with what they want to happen?
Mike's much sharper than that.
You would like to think so. But are there any examples of bets that don't favour the Remain option recently? Or the Democrats in US?
If anyone thinks Labour don't have an anti-semitism problem you only need to hop over to mumsnet. Lots of first time posting Corbynista accounts telling Jewish forummers there is no anti semitism and that they are wrong and explaining why Israel is so awful. I believe Mumsnet have had to step in.
I think Grieve will lose by a large margin. not even second. This is a safe seat. One of the problems is that too many MPs, like Grieve and Hammond and Letwin and Gauke, thought that 66% of voters in a place like Beaconsfield voted personally for them and not just for the blue rosette. I will be surprised if the Conservatives dont take more than 66% this time. Johnson is a much better campaigner than May, UKIP is gone (effectively), and remember that last time Grieve was on a Leave ticket and most Conservatives in the Home Counties are Leave. this time as well the chaos of Corbyn and the risk of his winning is quite galvanising for all us Tories. So it would be good to have a market on more than 66%. if the Conservatives dont do better here than in 2017. it means the Johnson message of get this nonsense over with and get on with life and avoid Corbyn/LD chaos has not resonated as strongly as I feel it has so far in this campaign (much better than 2017). I think one argument you are hearing from the Conservatives is the last few months of a weak May/Bercow/Benn +assorted minor parties 'government' and Corbyn refusing to take responsibility for anything is what you will get more of if you dont hand Johnson a big majority. we just saw what happens when Labour, the SNP, and the LDs get together and try to govern. I think most people hid their eyes in shame.
I must say that I normally have a great deal of respect for Mike on odds but to suggest 5/2 is a bit long for Grieve strikes me as not much short of bizarre.
You surely have to be wary of following tips from people whose every value bet coincides with what they want to happen?
Mike's much sharper than that.
With all due respect I think he's got his orange tinted goggles on this campaign.
No shame in that, we're all biased by our own frame of reference. OGH has never hidden the fact he supports the orange team and I respect OGH for his refusal to countenance endorsing antisemitism.
Everyone can get carried away with what they want to happen and that is dangerous when you do.
Half an hour of tonight's program is going to be about Brexit apparently. I am not entirely sure that is enough time for Jeremy to explain his policy.
I think one thing that was affect the format is if ITV have the audience silent like they have sometimes in the past, or if they make a noise. If the latter, Corbyn may get laughed at. And that’s terminal.
Call me old fashioned, but I don't think the audience should be laughing, cheering, booing or whatever.
So what's the point in having them then? I agree getting a balanced audience is a nightmare but if you are going to have one it really has to be allowed to react to some extent.
Comments
I know for a fact that he opposed clause 28.
Edit: There are claims this message is fake, so we have to go with a pinch of salt
It's almost identical to YouGov
Kantar 45/27
YouGov 45/28
Edit: oh, and Levenson has been largely ignored, so presumably it's pretty much ok for everyone to carry on as before.
What this poll should bring is crossover with 2017. 2 weeks out then we started to consistently see single digit Tory leads of 4-8 points across a number of pollsters. If we're not getting those this time next week then I will start believing in a double digit Tory lead is the reality.
Then they would post stuff related to that topic, but on a regular basis they would throw in a hand grenade e.g. post about a racist attack on a black people near a church by a white guy, at the same time in another group be posting a racist attack on a white person by a black gang.
Hansard link
https://order-order.com/2019/11/19/banks-twitter-direct-message-leaks/
National Prediction: Conservative short 6 of majority gaining 3 seats and losing 1!
Seems unlikely with a 2.5% swing?!
But yeah it's all hypothetical bullshit for people who spend their lives on twitter.
Speaking of that, I wonder what happened to Scott P. he's gone from a hundred posts of spam a day to nothing...
My daughter is a student in Wales. She has registered to vote both there (no postal vote) and at home (with a postal vote).
Since she will be at Uni on the 12th she wants to vote there. I'm assuming that there is no problem with this provided she just votes in person in Wales and destroys the postal vote - is that correct?
https://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/FinalRR.pdf
*innocent face*
It's worth taking a look at the Sporting Index 25-10-0 constituency markets. They will settle as Winner = 25pts, Runner-up = 10pts, Third or lower = 0pts.
This is a way to bet on who comes second in various constituencies. I think there is some value there, for example I've sold Anne Milton (Ind) in Guildford @ 3, and Labour in Isle of Wight @ 4 - i.e. I'm betting that they will not get to second place (and of course not to first place, which would give me a big loss).
https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3745301-To-ask-about-Jeremy-Corbyn-and-anti-semitism?pg=1
Oh and I read mumsnet to keep my finger on the pulse! Important demographic...
(But voting for Boris isn't REALLY voting Tory...dad and grandad and great-grandad won't really be spinning in their Labour-til-I-die graves if I vote for Boris....just this once....)
Yeah - that was the Labour Party plan. Didn`t work did it.
Electorate doesn`t blame Boris for missing 31/10 as they know it wasn`t his fault.
Whether this was foreseen by Cummings is difficult to assess.
https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1196432005766025216
I have no idea if the changes to electoral registration have affected this, b it if she is relying on the Uni to register her then tell her to double check, as ours was incompetent.
As Bob Monkhouse said they're not laughing any more.
Do we think Corbyn has the ability to do this? His track record on these kind of debates is far from poor...
Though what you write is an important factor as to why LP voters will vote CP this time, another is that they may see "getting us out of EU" as a "higher" calling on their vote than stubbornly sticking to the LP (on this exceptional occasion).
If someone object to Obama and Hilary and Sanders and Warren etc etc etc then are they racist? If they only object to Obama but not Sanders etc then yes I'd agree that would be the same.
'lauda'
Very true - I`m proud to say that my list of constituency bets includes Tory, Labour and SNP seat wins. No libDems though.
A bit sad as I vote LibDem myself.
PS; Ave you Lost It
Ha yes - I fully intend to avoid it - but then again it`s a scab that one has to pick.
At what point does their messaging go to “do you trust the Tories with a massive majority “.
(I know, I know
No shame in that, we're all biased by our own frame of reference. OGH has never hidden the fact he supports the orange team and I respect OGH for his refusal to countenance endorsing antisemitism.
Everyone can get carried away with what they want to happen and that is dangerous when you do.