Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Focus on Wokingham where two ex-CON MPs are slugging it out ag

13567

Comments

  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,842

    nico67 said:

    Get Brexit done is now looking very stale . Any chance of the Tories bringing forward some interesting plans or are they just going to spend the next two weeks trashing Labours .

    Depends what you mean by interesting plans?

    Do you find a Venezuelan future interesting?
    The Venezuelan thing was never much more than a scare story but it isn't even that now because Labour has next to zero chance of winning an outright majority.

    Even in the unlikely event Corbyn became next PM it could only be with the support of other Parties, in which case the manacles would be well and truly on.
    I'd suggest that the SNP wouldn't give a shiney shite whether or not England and Wales are well governed and whether finances are sound. It would be entirely incidental to their aims.
    I also suspect the LDs would agree to do pretty much anything in return for another referendum on Europe.
  • The manacles won't be on, instead it will be a case of everyone demanding their pork to take home and with someone like McDonell in 11 Downing Street the chequebook will be out to give all their 'partners' their own spending with no limitation or restriction.

    Who in that coalition is going to say "no we are spending too much" until the government is completely broke?

    Yes, I think there is a lot of truth in that. A rainbow coalition won't be able to agree on much, but the one thing they will be able to agree on is spending money on each other's pet projects, and the one thing they'll be quite unable to do is to make any hard choices.

    Still not as bad a majority Corbyn government, of course.
    How long do people think a rainbow coalition would last? I am thinking less than a year so budgets and finances are not a particularly big deal, especially 10 year type projects.
    You might be right on that, it's very hard to say.
  • Is Mr. Calum still about? I recall him making some very good SNP seat predictions in the not too distant past.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    nunu2 said: "People are ignoring the polls.

    They show libdems having 20 seats on Dec 13th not 40"

    And hence the betting opportunities!
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Bloomberg so confident he will win that he's not going to bother to contest the first 4 Democratic primaries, not filing for New Hampshire.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/14/politics/michael-bloomberg-new-hampshire/index.html

    This is some kind of performance art.
    It is. He's going to be continuing Bill Gates' work of saying "Oooh, we evil billionaires sure do hope that Warren doesn't win. That's who we're afraid of, Warren! Definitely not that other guy, pay no attention to him."
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Flanner said:

    AnneJGP said:

    A very long time ago, I used to live in John Redwood's constituency. I never voted for him, though.

    What rather puzzles me about these ex-Conservative MPs who are standing as Lib Dems is, what are they, really? They only crossed the floor because of their beliefs about Brexit, and there's more to a political stance than that. Will the new intake of Lib Dem MPs end up undermining the Lib Dem philosophy?

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Well, there's only one national party that's not promising to spend money like a drunken sailor, destroy the Union...
    This is the party that is standing aside for Welsh nationalists and will go into coalition with an SNP demanding a second indyref?
  • nico67 said:

    Get Brexit done is now looking very stale . Any chance of the Tories bringing forward some interesting plans or are they just going to spend the next two weeks trashing Labours .

    Depends what you mean by interesting plans?

    Do you find a Venezuelan future interesting?
    The Venezuelan thing was never much more than a scare story but it isn't even that now because Labour has next to zero chance of winning an outright majority.

    Even in the unlikely event Corbyn became next PM it could only be with the support of other Parties, in which case the manacles would be well and truly on.
    I imagine that a possible price of coalition support would be a different Labour leader, which would be a relief for all concerned, including Mr Thicky himself.

    nico67 said:

    Get Brexit done is now looking very stale . Any chance of the Tories bringing forward some interesting plans or are they just going to spend the next two weeks trashing Labours .

    Depends what you mean by interesting plans?

    Do you find a Venezuelan future interesting?
    The Venezuelan thing was never much more than a scare story but it isn't even that now because Labour has next to zero chance of winning an outright majority.

    Even in the unlikely event Corbyn became next PM it could only be with the support of other Parties, in which case the manacles would be well and truly on.
    I imagine that a possible price of coalition support would be a different Labour leader, which would be a relief for all concerned, including Mr Thicky himself.
    McDonnell wouldnt be going anywhere, which is far more worrying than uncle thicky.
    He might have no choice without Corbyn's patronage. Has anyone tried to forecast the likely left/right makeup of the PLP after the election?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    edited November 2019

    Pulpstar said:

    Labour leader betting - Pidcock, Rayner & particularly Cooper all look too short right now.

    Long Bailey looks to be the chosen one I'm thinking.

    Pidcock might not even be an MP soon. Oddschecker says you can back her at 2/5. Or the blues at 8/1. Either worth a punt I think.
    I've backed both (For tiny stakes), which is probably why bookmakers hate my guts.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited November 2019
    You cant interfere with something that doesnt exist. Virgin / Sky wont be offering consumer internet come 2030 if Labour win.
  • For what it's worth, backed no overall majority (2.5) and Con under 338.5 seats at 1.83.

    Probably a good bet. I still think it is a likely outcome.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    edited November 2019

    Flanner said:

    AnneJGP said:

    A very long time ago, I used to live in John Redwood's constituency. I never voted for him, though.

    What rather puzzles me about these ex-Conservative MPs who are standing as Lib Dems is, what are they, really? They only crossed the floor because of their beliefs about Brexit, and there's more to a political stance than that. Will the new intake of Lib Dem MPs end up undermining the Lib Dem philosophy?

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Well, there's only one national party that's not promising to spend money like a drunken sailor, destroy the Union...
    This is the party that is standing aside for Welsh nationalists and will go into coalition with an SNP demanding a second indyref?
    I don't think there are any national parties who would go into coalition with the SNP.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    nico67 said:

    Get Brexit done is now looking very stale . Any chance of the Tories bringing forward some interesting plans or are they just going to spend the next two weeks trashing Labours .

    Depends what you mean by interesting plans?

    Do you find a Venezuelan future interesting?
    The Venezuelan thing was never much more than a scare story but it isn't even that now because Labour has next to zero chance of winning an outright majority.

    Even in the unlikely event Corbyn became next PM it could only be with the support of other Parties, in which case the manacles would be well and truly on.
    I imagine that a possible price of coalition support would be a different Labour leader, which would be a relief for all concerned, including Mr Thicky himself.

    nico67 said:

    Get Brexit done is now looking very stale . Any chance of the Tories bringing forward some interesting plans or are they just going to spend the next two weeks trashing Labours .

    Depends what you mean by interesting plans?

    Do you find a Venezuelan future interesting?
    The Venezuelan thing was never much more than a scare story but it isn't even that now because Labour has next to zero chance of winning an outright majority.

    Even in the unlikely event Corbyn became next PM it could only be with the support of other Parties, in which case the manacles would be well and truly on.
    I imagine that a possible price of coalition support would be a different Labour leader, which would be a relief for all concerned, including Mr Thicky himself.
    McDonnell wouldnt be going anywhere, which is far more worrying than uncle thicky.
    He might have no choice without Corbyn's patronage. Has anyone tried to forecast the likely left/right makeup of the PLP after the election?
    The impression I got is that the leadership/momentum had a mixed-leaning-bad set of results in terms of getting their candidates selected for safe seats. But since those seats were all previously non-Corbynista, any wins represented progress.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    nico67 said:


    More Tory scaremongering . The UK needs a radical change and I’m happy to take my chance on that, if it doesn’t work out then you can change that after 5 years , as compared to Brexit which once done there’s no way back.

    Parties are free to campaign at a future GE to rejoin the EU...which is the honest and legitimate way of doing things in a democracy.

    The damage of a Labour victory on the other hand would be horrendous, far in excess of anything apocalyptic claimed about WTO.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    The Brexit Party standing down should help Redwood scrape home against Lee
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    AnneJGP said:

    A very long time ago, I used to live in John Redwood's constituency. I never voted for him, though.

    What rather puzzles me about these ex-Conservative MPs who are standing as Lib Dems is, what are they, really? They only crossed the floor because of their beliefs about Brexit, and there's more to a political stance than that. Will the new intake of Lib Dem MPs end up undermining the Lib Dem philosophy?

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    What is Lib Dem philosophy now apart from bollocks to Brexit?

    The LDs are really just an upper middle class protest vehicle.
  • nico67 said:

    Get Brexit done is now looking very stale . Any chance of the Tories bringing forward some interesting plans or are they just going to spend the next two weeks trashing Labours .

    Depends what you mean by interesting plans?

    Do you find a Venezuelan future interesting?
    The Venezuelan thing was never much more than a scare story but it isn't even that now because Labour has next to zero chance of winning an outright majority.

    Even in the unlikely event Corbyn became next PM it could only be with the support of other Parties, in which case the manacles would be well and truly on.
    I imagine that a possible price of coalition support would be a different Labour leader, which would be a relief for all concerned, including Mr Thicky himself.

    nico67 said:

    Get Brexit done is now looking very stale . Any chance of the Tories bringing forward some interesting plans or are they just going to spend the next two weeks trashing Labours .

    Depends what you mean by interesting plans?

    Do you find a Venezuelan future interesting?
    The Venezuelan thing was never much more than a scare story but it isn't even that now because Labour has next to zero chance of winning an outright majority.

    Even in the unlikely event Corbyn became next PM it could only be with the support of other Parties, in which case the manacles would be well and truly on.
    I imagine that a possible price of coalition support would be a different Labour leader, which would be a relief for all concerned, including Mr Thicky himself.
    McDonnell wouldnt be going anywhere, which is far more worrying than uncle thicky.
    He might have no choice without Corbyn's patronage. Has anyone tried to forecast the likely left/right makeup of the PLP after the election?
    The impression I got is that the leadership/momentum had a mixed-leaning-bad set of results in terms of getting their candidates selected for safe seats. But since those seats were all previously non-Corbynista, any wins represented progress.
    So the question then arises as to whether the centre left can manage to take back control from the left wing nut jobs that have not held Bozo's government to account?
  • :lol:

    I suppose they could tell the companies to reduce the broadband TV combo price by £30 as the state is providing the piping.

    Or something.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    edited November 2019
    SunnyJim said:

    Parties are free to campaign at a future GE to rejoin the EU

    That's very kind of you, your magnificence. Could you continue to furnish us with information about which policies parties are "free" to campaign on?
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    HYUFD said:

    The Brexit Party standing down should help Redwood scrape home against Lee

    slither home, shurely?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    :lol:

    I suppose they could tell the companies to reduce the broadband TV combo price by £30 as the state is providing the piping.

    Or something.
    More joined up Labour thinking

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/15/general-election-2019-brexit-news-latest-labour-broadband/

    Nationalise it all!!!!
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Good to see Boris taking the fight to Oldham W and Royton LAB maj 17,198.

    More chance of CON winning that than LD winning Wokingham!
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Guido has a list up of all non Tory seats the BXP are not standing in.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    RLB is even more bonkers than McDonnell. Wow. Utterly terrifying.
  • AnneJGP said:

    A very long time ago, I used to live in John Redwood's constituency. I never voted for him, though.

    What rather puzzles me about these ex-Conservative MPs who are standing as Lib Dems is, what are they, really? They only crossed the floor because of their beliefs about Brexit, and there's more to a political stance than that. Will the new intake of Lib Dem MPs end up undermining the Lib Dem philosophy?

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    What is Lib Dem philosophy now apart from bollocks to Brexit?

    The LDs are really just an upper middle class protest vehicle.
    Maybe you should read their manifesto perhaps, rather than spouting uninformed "bollocks" yourself?
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    And on the subject of a future Labour government taking over broadband provision for the country have they ever seen the reaction of kids when their connection drops whilst online gaming?

    'Labour broadband' will be despised within months and turn a whole generation of future voters off the idea of socialism.

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    SunnyJim said:

    nico67 said:


    More Tory scaremongering . The UK needs a radical change and I’m happy to take my chance on that, if it doesn’t work out then you can change that after 5 years , as compared to Brexit which once done there’s no way back.

    Parties are free to campaign at a future GE to rejoin the EU...which is the honest and legitimate way of doing things in a democracy.

    The damage of a Labour victory on the other hand would be horrendous, far in excess of anything apocalyptic claimed about WTO.
    Exactly

    And I am not sure they will give up the levers of power easily once they grab them.

  • Is Mr. Calum still about? I recall him making some very good SNP seat predictions in the not too distant past.

    Sadly Calum died in March.

    He tipped at 125/1 Labour to win fewer than 5 seats in Scotland at GE2015.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    I wouldn't be quite so worried about Sky and Virgin, they can fall back on TV revenues. All the other internet providers though? They're instantly dead.

    Alternative fibre networks currently digging all over the place like Cityfibre/Hyperoptic/Gigaclear/etc? Screwed. Why bother investing billions in infrastructure when the govt will provide it for free?
  • Noo said:

    Flanner said:

    AnneJGP said:

    A very long time ago, I used to live in John Redwood's constituency. I never voted for him, though.

    What rather puzzles me about these ex-Conservative MPs who are standing as Lib Dems is, what are they, really? They only crossed the floor because of their beliefs about Brexit, and there's more to a political stance than that. Will the new intake of Lib Dem MPs end up undermining the Lib Dem philosophy?

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Well, there's only one national party that's not promising to spend money like a drunken sailor, destroy the Union...
    This is the party that is standing aside for Welsh nationalists and will go into coalition with an SNP demanding a second indyref?
    I don't think there are any national parties who would go into coalition with the SNP.
    I think Labour under Corbyn would. Corbyn would go into coalition with Sein Fein
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    brokenwheel said:

    "What is Lib Dem philosophy now apart from bollocks to Brexit?

    The LDs are really just an upper middle class protest vehicle."

    I cling on to the belief that the LDs adhere albeit loosely to liberalism and all the principles and aims that this implies.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited November 2019
    148grss said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Bloomberg so confident he will win that he's not going to bother to contest the first 4 Democratic primaries, not filing for New Hampshire.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/14/politics/michael-bloomberg-new-hampshire/index.html

    I do not understand this... I cannot see who the Bloomberg constituency is if it is not exactly the Biden constituency (minus the african american voters who do not like Bloomberg)
    Bloomberg is not really interested in winning the Democratic nomination as he knows he has no chance, for starters he was a Republican New York Mayor 15 years ago, he is laying down a marker to run as an Independent in the general election if it ends up Trump v Warren or Sanders
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912

    You cant interfere with something that doesnt exist. Virgin / Sky wont be offering consumer internet come 2030 if Labour win.
    ++

    I said last night that Vodafone are probably delighted now that they didn't buy Virgin Media from Liberty Global. I should think there will be a few congratulatory drinks downed this evening in the pubs and bars around Newbury.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    I see Ladbrokes has unnecessarily redesigned its website...

    Not sure what the advantage is of making a Grand Prix's markets slightly harder to find is.

    Oddschecker have redone theirs! I can't get historical data any more! I am vexed!
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Stocky said:

    nunu2 said: "People are ignoring the polls.

    They show libdems having 20 seats on Dec 13th not 40"

    And hence the betting opportunities!

    so the swings you saw in Tunbridge wells and Shap last night don't count?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    stodge said:

    Floater said:

    On the local Lib Dems - it wasn't the candidate but someone was trying on facebook to give impression the Lib Dems were doing better here than they really are.

    Turns out local council votes were being used.....

    Heard that somewhere before....

    Parties talk up their prospects all the time - it's all part of electioneering.
    The Lib Dems push it beyond reality though don't they.

    The sunlight of scrutiny will force them to tone it down a bit
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Bloomberg so confident he will win that he's not going to bother to contest the first 4 Democratic primaries, not filing for New Hampshire.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/14/politics/michael-bloomberg-new-hampshire/index.html

    I do not understand this... I cannot see who the Bloomberg constituency is if it is not exactly the Biden constituency (minus the african american voters who do not like Bloomberg)
    Bloomberg is not really interested in winning the Democratic nomination as he knows he has no chance, for starters he was a Republican New York Mayor 15 years ago, he is laying down a marker to run as an Independent in the general election if it ends up Trump v Warren or Sanders
    Which, and I may be crazy here, would ultimately help democrats. Can you imagine: GOP: Old billioniare from New York vs Ind: Old billionaire from New York vs Dem: Elizabeth Warren. Only Jeb! voters and other never Trumpers would vote Bloomberg; very few Dem voters would vote Bloomberg with no hope of winning.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited November 2019
    HYUFD said: "The Brexit Party standing down should help Redwood scrape home against Lee"

    Why just "scrape home"? Libdems 15% of vote across last two elections versus Tories 57.5%. I cannot see how Lee can close that sort of a gap (esp with BXP not standing). On top of this, I don`t think the public take too kindly to politicians that change parties.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Green transfers
    Lib Dem 59
    Conservative 11
    Independent 25
    SNP 82

    Lib Dems did pretty well on the transfers there, from both unionist and nationalist side.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    I see Ladbrokes has unnecessarily redesigned its website...

    Not sure what the advantage is of making a Grand Prix's markets slightly harder to find is.

    I agree - and viewing the betslip requires you to scroll up the page now for some unfathomable reason.

    On a similar topic; I note that SpIn seem to have permanently suspended their constituency betting (at least they seem to have done it to the ones I've backed....) Is this normal?
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Stocky said:

    brokenwheel said:

    "What is Lib Dem philosophy now apart from bollocks to Brexit?

    The LDs are really just an upper middle class protest vehicle."

    I cling on to the belief that the LDs adhere albeit loosely to liberalism and all the principles and aims that this implies.

    Yes, exactly. The Lib Dems represent liberal values and social democracy, far superior to the bigotry and state socialism of Labour.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912
    Andrew said:

    I wouldn't be quite so worried about Sky and Virgin, they can fall back on TV revenues.

    I disagree, without the bundling of services (phone, TV, broadband, and mobile) they would be very vulnerable to OTT services like Netflix and Amazon.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    Flanner said:

    AnneJGP said:

    A very long time ago, I used to live in John Redwood's constituency. I never voted for him, though.

    What rather puzzles me about these ex-Conservative MPs who are standing as Lib Dems is, what are they, really? They only crossed the floor because of their beliefs about Brexit, and there's more to a political stance than that. Will the new intake of Lib Dem MPs end up undermining the Lib Dem philosophy?

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Well, there's only one national party that's not promising to spend money like a drunken sailor, destroy the Union...
    This is the party that is standing aside for Welsh nationalists and will go into coalition with an SNP demanding a second indyref?
    I don't think there are any national parties who would go into coalition with the SNP.
    I think Labour under Corbyn would. Corbyn would go into coalition with Sein Fein
    I really don't think they would. There is no party more averse to cooperating than Labour.
  • SunnyJim said:

    nico67 said:


    More Tory scaremongering . The UK needs a radical change and I’m happy to take my chance on that, if it doesn’t work out then you can change that after 5 years , as compared to Brexit which once done there’s no way back.

    Parties are free to campaign at a future GE to rejoin the EU...which is the honest and legitimate way of doing things in a democracy.

    The damage of a Labour victory on the other hand would be horrendous, far in excess of anything apocalyptic claimed about WTO.
    eloquently and correctly put
  • Just seen the Boris stump speech. Nothing about housing yet. They aren’t stupid. I think something is coming. I’m also suspicious that nothing came of the work on revaluation of student loans.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Gabs2 said:

    Stocky said:

    brokenwheel said:

    "What is Lib Dem philosophy now apart from bollocks to Brexit?

    The LDs are really just an upper middle class protest vehicle."

    I cling on to the belief that the LDs adhere albeit loosely to liberalism and all the principles and aims that this implies.

    Yes, exactly. The Lib Dems represent liberal values and social democracy, far superior to the bigotry and state socialism of Labour.
    Perhaps someone can explain to me why they now have a policy of allowing people to self-select their gender for official purposes. How will they address the gender pay gap if the authorities don't really know what someone's gender is? I can imagine a few CEOs reassigning themselves to manipulate the data in the 'right' direction.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited November 2019
    glw said:

    Andrew said:

    I wouldn't be quite so worried about Sky and Virgin, they can fall back on TV revenues.

    I disagree, without the bundling of services (phone, TV, broadband, and mobile) they would be very vulnerable to OTT services like Netflix and Amazon.
    Also, would anybody be shocked if Labour "nationalized" all tv sports broadcast rights. Only the Commie Cable.Co and the BBC can show them.

    Jezza hates that rich people fund EPL clubs. Nationalize the league and the broadcast right and only allow supporter owned clubs.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,003
    edited November 2019

    Is Mr. Calum still about? I recall him making some very good SNP seat predictions in the not too distant past.

    Not seen him post for a while. As I recall he suffers from MND so I hope all is well (or as well as one could hope) with him.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684

    Streeter said:
    And we all know the EU have a wonderful record of sensibly and successfully distributing money don't we.....
    It's not the EU's money.
  • Stocky said:

    HYUFD said: "The Brexit Party standing down should help Redwood scrape home against Lee"

    Why just "scrape home"? Libdems 15% of vote across last two elections versus Tories 57.5%. I cannot see how Lee can close that sort of a gap (esp with BXP not standing). On top of this, I don`t think the public take too kindly to politicians that change parties.

    "The public" seemed to be quite fond of Churchill. He crossed the floor twice. I am sure Philip Lee is no Churchill (though no less so than Bozo in all his fantasies), but I should think no one will give two hoots that he has changed parties in the current febrile climate.
  • Is Mr. Calum still about? I recall him making some very good SNP seat predictions in the not too distant past.

    Sadly Calum died in March.

    He tipped at 125/1 Labour to win fewer than 5 seats in Scotland at GE2015.
    Bugger, just caught up. He was a good guy.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    glw said:

    Andrew said:

    I wouldn't be quite so worried about Sky and Virgin, they can fall back on TV revenues.

    I disagree, without the bundling of services (phone, TV, broadband, and mobile) they would be very vulnerable to OTT services like Netflix and Amazon.
    Also, would anybody be shocked if Labour "nationalized" all tv sports broadcast rights. Only the Commie Cable.Co and the BBC can show them.

    Jezza hates that rich people fund EPL clubs. Nationalize the league and the broadcast right and only allow supporter owned clubs.
    That might be a stretch - but a review of the crown jewels list wouldn't surprise me.
  • timmo said:

    Stocky said:

    nunu2 said: "People are ignoring the polls.

    They show libdems having 20 seats on Dec 13th not 40"

    And hence the betting opportunities!

    so the swings you saw in Tunbridge wells and Shap last night don't count?
    Tunbridge is 85 on the LD target list.

    I don't expect the LDs to win 85 seats. I do expect their results to be patchy. They may well miss some fairly easy looking ones (Cheltenham?) whilst picking up some longshots. On yesterday's council result, you'd have to think Tunbridge might be one.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    TudorRose said: "Perhaps someone can explain to me why they now have a policy of allowing people to self-select their gender for official purposes."

    You`ve alighted on one of the reasons that my bond with the LibDems is now a tenuous one. I`m afraid that LibDems have, like much the establishment and businesses, succumbed to the vicious transgender lobby. Someone needs to have the courage to stand up to this shit. See Spiked Online.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited November 2019
    Sir Rod Stewart backs Boris to deliver Brexit and backs the Union too

    https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2019/11/15/break-up-of-union-would-be-a-shame-says-sir-rod-stewart/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited November 2019
    tlg86 said:

    glw said:

    Andrew said:

    I wouldn't be quite so worried about Sky and Virgin, they can fall back on TV revenues.

    I disagree, without the bundling of services (phone, TV, broadband, and mobile) they would be very vulnerable to OTT services like Netflix and Amazon.
    Also, would anybody be shocked if Labour "nationalized" all tv sports broadcast rights. Only the Commie Cable.Co and the BBC can show them.

    Jezza hates that rich people fund EPL clubs. Nationalize the league and the broadcast right and only allow supporter owned clubs.
    That might be a stretch - but a review of the crown jewels list wouldn't surprise me.
    Nailed on that it would be basically everything other than rich person sports. Make the scumbag rich pay to watch their toff sports.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said: "The Brexit Party standing down should help Redwood scrape home against Lee"

    Why just "scrape home"? Libdems 15% of vote across last two elections versus Tories 57.5%. I cannot see how Lee can close that sort of a gap (esp with BXP not standing). On top of this, I don`t think the public take too kindly to politicians that change parties.

    Wokingham was Remain and the LDs won it in the European Parliament elections
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    TudorRose said:

    Perhaps someone can explain to me why they now have a policy of allowing people to self-select their gender for official purposes. How will they address the gender pay gap if the authorities don't really know what someone's gender is? I can imagine a few CEOs reassigning themselves to manipulate the data in the 'right' direction.

    This is possibly the most preposterous thing I have ever read on PB, even when set against the Collected Works of HYUFD. Congratulations.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    CON gain from LD in the west country
    LAB gain from CON in Wales

    I haven't seen anyone put forward a narrative of how this election is going to pan out that matches those results :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    148grss said:

    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Bloomberg so confident he will win that he's not going to bother to contest the first 4 Democratic primaries, not filing for New Hampshire.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/14/politics/michael-bloomberg-new-hampshire/index.html

    I do not understand this... I cannot see who the Bloomberg constituency is if it is not exactly the Biden constituency (minus the african american voters who do not like Bloomberg)
    Bloomberg is not really interested in winning the Democratic nomination as he knows he has no chance, for starters he was a Republican New York Mayor 15 years ago, he is laying down a marker to run as an Independent in the general election if it ends up Trump v Warren or Sanders
    Which, and I may be crazy here, would ultimately help democrats. Can you imagine: GOP: Old billioniare from New York vs Ind: Old billionaire from New York vs Dem: Elizabeth Warren. Only Jeb! voters and other never Trumpers would vote Bloomberg; very few Dem voters would vote Bloomberg with no hope of winning.
    I disagree, plenty of centrist Hillary voters would vote Bloomberg in New York, California, Florida etc. I doubt he would pick up many rustbelt votes from either party though
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited November 2019

    AnneJGP said:

    A very long time ago, I used to live in John Redwood's constituency. I never voted for him, though.

    What rather puzzles me about these ex-Conservative MPs who are standing as Lib Dems is, what are they, really? They only crossed the floor because of their beliefs about Brexit, and there's more to a political stance than that. Will the new intake of Lib Dem MPs end up undermining the Lib Dem philosophy?

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    What is Lib Dem philosophy now apart from bollocks to Brexit?

    The LDs are really just an upper middle class protest vehicle.
    Maybe you should read their manifesto perhaps, rather than spouting uninformed "bollocks" yourself?
    Touchy. So what is it?
    Stocky said:

    brokenwheel said:

    "What is Lib Dem philosophy now apart from bollocks to Brexit?

    The LDs are really just an upper middle class protest vehicle."

    I cling on to the belief that the LDs adhere albeit loosely to liberalism and all the principles and aims that this implies.

    Well that is a traditional reading of the party.
    In more recent years it has followed its demographic and become more 'progressive'. Hence the significant crossover between the middle class Labour and Lib Dem vote despite Labour going far more authoritarian.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    edited November 2019

    Is Mr. Calum still about? I recall him making some very good SNP seat predictions in the not too distant past.

    Sadly Calum died in March.

    He tipped at 125/1 Labour to win fewer than 5 seats in Scotland at GE2015.
    Bugger, just caught up. He was a good guy.
    He was, he had the grace and humour to deal with the situation I think most of us would find difficult to deal with.

    https://twitter.com/CalumMND/status/1111587086702964736
  • HYUFD said:

    Sir Rod Stewart backs Boris to deliver Brexit and backs the Union too

    https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2019/11/15/break-up-of-union-would-be-a-shame-says-sir-rod-stewart/

    Wow, that changes my opinion. Must vote for Johnson now!
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    That is a weird one, it's in Brecon and Radnor, both con and LD down and Lab inexplicably flying in a seat they arent strong in......
  • I am probably biased, but it has always seemed there is something of the night about Redwood. A very weird man. Difficult to imagine he would have much of a personal vote base based on his personal appeal.

    At least he does his homework.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFP5MjUuzsg
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    The damage of a Labour victory on the other hand would be horrendous, far in excess of anything apocalyptic claimed about WTO.
    Indeed. Incontinent spending plans, a fuck-business economic policy, the exodus of big business, campaigns fronted by proven liars pledging money to everybody with no comeback, and a ruling class based on raising the hopes of the poor whilst robbing them blind. It's lucky we have a wise Conservative Party to avoid that, eh. Lucky us. Lucky, lucky us...

    (Sobs gently)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    timmo said:

    Stocky said:

    nunu2 said: "People are ignoring the polls.

    They show libdems having 20 seats on Dec 13th not 40"

    And hence the betting opportunities!

    so the swings you saw in Tunbridge wells and Shap last night don't count?
    Tunbridge is 85 on the LD target list.

    I don't expect the LDs to win 85 seats. I do expect their results to be patchy. They may well miss some fairly easy looking ones (Cheltenham?) whilst picking up some longshots. On yesterday's council result, you'd have to think Tunbridge might be one.
    My parents live in Tunbridge Wells, the council funding a vast white elephant new theatre complex was partly to blame for the LD gain locally
  • What??!!! Posts like that should come with a health warning. I nearly fell out of my bathchair.

    Btw, are Plaid picking up? There have been a couple of straws in the wind recently indicating they might be.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    TudorRose said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Stocky said:

    brokenwheel said:

    "What is Lib Dem philosophy now apart from bollocks to Brexit?

    The LDs are really just an upper middle class protest vehicle."

    I cling on to the belief that the LDs adhere albeit loosely to liberalism and all the principles and aims that this implies.

    Yes, exactly. The Lib Dems represent liberal values and social democracy, far superior to the bigotry and state socialism of Labour.
    Perhaps someone can explain to me why they now have a policy of allowing people to self-select their gender for official purposes. How will they address the gender pay gap if the authorities don't really know what someone's gender is? I can imagine a few CEOs reassigning themselves to manipulate the data in the 'right' direction.
    They are the true party of NIMBYism
  • I am probably biased, but it has always seemed there is something of the night about Redwood. A very weird man. Difficult to imagine he would have much of a personal vote base based on his personal appeal.

    At least he does his homework.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFP5MjUuzsg
    I had forgotten how like Mr Bean he looks, particularly there. Classic!
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Noo said:

    CON gain from LD in the west country
    LAB gain from CON in Wales

    I haven't seen anyone put forward a narrative of how this election is going to pan out that matches those results :D

    No quite and 2 other LibDem gains from CONS and one SNP gain from Cons plus a SNP hold.

    I repeat my assertion of earlier, very little to me points to a Cons landslide. I still think we're in narrow Tory majority territory but only by a squeak. Could very easily move to NoM favourite.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Stocky said:

    TudorRose said: "Perhaps someone can explain to me why they now have a policy of allowing people to self-select their gender for official purposes."

    You`ve alighted on one of the reasons that my bond with the LibDems is now a tenuous one. I`m afraid that LibDems have, like much the establishment and businesses, succumbed to the vicious transgender lobby. Someone needs to have the courage to stand up to this shit. See Spiked Online.

    Nice to see more science denial here. There has been detailed understanding about transgenderism for a long time, with gender reaffirming surgeries taking place post WW1 / pre WW2 in Germany (one of the most famous pictures of book burning by Nazis were works from a doctor who had done much research into the health of trans people). We also know of many cultures that recognised more than two genders in the past and still do today, from Native American Two Spirit people to Torahnic references to around six gender identities / expressions.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    TudorRose said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Stocky said:

    brokenwheel said:

    "What is Lib Dem philosophy now apart from bollocks to Brexit?

    The LDs are really just an upper middle class protest vehicle."

    I cling on to the belief that the LDs adhere albeit loosely to liberalism and all the principles and aims that this implies.

    Yes, exactly. The Lib Dems represent liberal values and social democracy, far superior to the bigotry and state socialism of Labour.
    Perhaps someone can explain to me why they now have a policy of allowing people to self-select their gender for official purposes. How will they address the gender pay gap if the authorities don't really know what someone's gender is? I can imagine a few CEOs reassigning themselves to manipulate the data in the 'right' direction.
    I really want to see the expenses form for that.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Torbay was 62% Leave in the Referendum.

    I think the Leave parts of the SW will be very tough going for the LibDems.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    edited November 2019

    I am probably biased, but it has always seemed there is something of the night about Redwood. A very weird man. Difficult to imagine he would have much of a personal vote base based on his personal appeal.

    I think Michael Howard and Peter Mandelson are worse examples!

    He has enough charm to have been married twice, although the first one ended badly

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1453959/Redwoods-blame-each-other-as-their-29-year-marriage-ends.html

    However, I've always thought Wokingham should be a L.Dem-Tory marginal, probably like most of Surrey will be in due course. UKIP has never prospered there and many people have fairly un-conservative social views compared to say the folk of Brecon and Radnor.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    HYUFD said:

    timmo said:

    Stocky said:

    nunu2 said: "People are ignoring the polls.

    They show libdems having 20 seats on Dec 13th not 40"

    And hence the betting opportunities!

    so the swings you saw in Tunbridge wells and Shap last night don't count?
    Tunbridge is 85 on the LD target list.

    I don't expect the LDs to win 85 seats. I do expect their results to be patchy. They may well miss some fairly easy looking ones (Cheltenham?) whilst picking up some longshots. On yesterday's council result, you'd have to think Tunbridge might be one.
    My parents live in Tunbridge Wells, the council funding a vast white elephant new theatre complex was partly to blame for the LD gain locally
    Tunbridge Wells won't go yellow, they are a distant 3rd and will end up a distant 2nd. People really need to stop pretending local council elections on tiny turnouts in wards they don't know are indicators for a general election.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    TudorRose said:

    I see Ladbrokes has unnecessarily redesigned its website...

    Not sure what the advantage is of making a Grand Prix's markets slightly harder to find is.

    I agree - and viewing the betslip requires you to scroll up the page now for some unfathomable reason.

    On a similar topic; I note that SpIn seem to have permanently suspended their constituency betting (at least they seem to have done it to the ones I've backed....) Is this normal?
    Spin suspends frequently: so often in fact I stopped using it as a predictor. Every time I looked the odds were "SUSP".
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    What??!!! Posts like that should come with a health warning. I nearly fell out of my bathchair.

    Btw, are Plaid picking up? There have been a couple of straws in the wind recently indicating they might be.
    Yes, I think they are.
    Brexit is bad for the union even in a country that voted for it :neutral:
  • AnneJGP said:

    A very long time ago, I used to live in John Redwood's constituency. I never voted for him, though.

    What rather puzzles me about these ex-Conservative MPs who are standing as Lib Dems is, what are they, really? They only crossed the floor because of their beliefs about Brexit, and there's more to a political stance than that. Will the new intake of Lib Dem MPs end up undermining the Lib Dem philosophy?

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    What is Lib Dem philosophy now apart from bollocks to Brexit?

    The LDs are really just an upper middle class protest vehicle.
    Maybe you should read their manifesto perhaps, rather than spouting uninformed "bollocks" yourself?
    Touchy. So what is it?
    Stocky said:

    brokenwheel said:

    "What is Lib Dem philosophy now apart from bollocks to Brexit?

    The LDs are really just an upper middle class protest vehicle."

    I cling on to the belief that the LDs adhere albeit loosely to liberalism and all the principles and aims that this implies.

    Well that is a traditional reading of the party.
    In more recent years it has followed its demographic and become more 'progressive'. Hence the significant crossover between the middle class Labour and Lib Dem vote despite Labour going far more authoritarian.
    It isn't touchy, I am not a member of the LDs, though I will vote for them this time. It was more a commentary on the puerile partisanship of your post
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    I've been watching elections for over 40 years.

    This isn't a landslide landscape.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    That is a weird one, it's in Brecon and Radnor, both con and LD down and Lab inexplicably flying in a seat they arent strong in......
    It looks like Lab gained LD votes and PC the Con ones... I'm sure it must be more complicated than that, but the numbers match very well.
  • I've been watching elections for over 40 years.

    This isn't a landslide landscape.

    Who is talking of a landslide? All the experts certainly aren't.
  • Noo said:

    CON gain from LD in the west country
    LAB gain from CON in Wales

    I haven't seen anyone put forward a narrative of how this election is going to pan out that matches those results :D

    They could be outliers, though now we know Rod Stewart backs Johnson then anything could happen!
  • Is Mr. Calum still about? I recall him making some very good SNP seat predictions in the not too distant past.

    Sadly Calum died in March.
    Thats a shame. Although we disagreed on much he always responded with charm and decency under what must have been very challenging circumstances.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Sounds like Marquee mark knows his area. Or maybe local elections are just very unreliable re national polls,
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    CON gain from LD in the west country
    LAB gain from CON in Wales

    I haven't seen anyone put forward a narrative of how this election is going to pan out that matches those results :D

    No quite and 2 other LibDem gains from CONS and one SNP gain from Cons plus a SNP hold.

    I repeat my assertion of earlier, very little to me points to a Cons landslide. I still think we're in narrow Tory majority territory but only by a squeak. Could very easily move to NoM favourite.
    Perhaps. I think on balance I'll just try to set aside council election results :)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited November 2019
    Following analysis of the closed candidate nominations, it has turned out the Brexit Party – having announced they will stand down in 317 tory-held seats – will not be standing in an additional 39 seats

    https://order-order.com/2019/11/15/full-list-non-tory-held-seats-brexit-party-arent-standing/
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    148grss said:

    That is a weird one, it's in Brecon and Radnor, both con and LD down and Lab inexplicably flying in a seat they arent strong in......
    It looks like Lab gained LD votes and PC the Con ones... I'm sure it must be more complicated than that, but the numbers match very well.
    Certainly flies in the face of the westminster by election, plaid stepping aside at the GE might make a difference after all........
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    Brom said:

    HYUFD said:

    timmo said:

    Stocky said:

    nunu2 said: "People are ignoring the polls.

    They show libdems having 20 seats on Dec 13th not 40"

    And hence the betting opportunities!

    so the swings you saw in Tunbridge wells and Shap last night don't count?
    Tunbridge is 85 on the LD target list.

    I don't expect the LDs to win 85 seats. I do expect their results to be patchy. They may well miss some fairly easy looking ones (Cheltenham?) whilst picking up some longshots. On yesterday's council result, you'd have to think Tunbridge might be one.
    My parents live in Tunbridge Wells, the council funding a vast white elephant new theatre complex was partly to blame for the LD gain locally
    Tunbridge Wells won't go yellow, they are a distant 3rd and will end up a distant 2nd. People really need to stop pretending local council elections on tiny turnouts in wards they don't know are indicators for a general election.
    True but I think Harlow will now be safer for the Tories than Tunbridge Wells after this election for instance, having campaigned in the former and what I know about the latter
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    HYUFD said:

    Sir Rod Stewart backs Boris to deliver Brexit and backs the Union too

    https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2019/11/15/break-up-of-union-would-be-a-shame-says-sir-rod-stewart/

    Wealthy expatriate Brit resident in California likes Brexit. No shit. Chuck it on the pile, we're stacking them.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    tlg86 said:

    glw said:

    Andrew said:

    I wouldn't be quite so worried about Sky and Virgin, they can fall back on TV revenues.

    I disagree, without the bundling of services (phone, TV, broadband, and mobile) they would be very vulnerable to OTT services like Netflix and Amazon.
    Also, would anybody be shocked if Labour "nationalized" all tv sports broadcast rights. Only the Commie Cable.Co and the BBC can show them.

    Jezza hates that rich people fund EPL clubs. Nationalize the league and the broadcast right and only allow supporter owned clubs.
    That might be a stretch - but a review of the crown jewels list wouldn't surprise me.
    Nailed on that it would be basically everything other than rich person sports. Make the scumbag rich pay to watch their toff sports.
    I'd argue we have the opposite at the moment. The BBC forks out a small fortune for Wimbledon, whilst the plebs who want to watch football have to pay through the nose for it.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Brom said:

    HYUFD said:

    timmo said:

    Stocky said:

    nunu2 said: "People are ignoring the polls.

    They show libdems having 20 seats on Dec 13th not 40"

    And hence the betting opportunities!

    so the swings you saw in Tunbridge wells and Shap last night don't count?
    Tunbridge is 85 on the LD target list.

    I don't expect the LDs to win 85 seats. I do expect their results to be patchy. They may well miss some fairly easy looking ones (Cheltenham?) whilst picking up some longshots. On yesterday's council result, you'd have to think Tunbridge might be one.
    My parents live in Tunbridge Wells, the council funding a vast white elephant new theatre complex was partly to blame for the LD gain locally
    Tunbridge Wells won't go yellow, they are a distant 3rd and will end up a distant 2nd. People really need to stop pretending local council elections on tiny turnouts in wards they don't know are indicators for a general election.
    Perhaps.

    People also need to stop 'pretending' the facts aren't pointing to something. The Labour vote share is rising, the tory lead is far from robust and there are going to be huge regional and local variations with parties doing really well in some areas and really badly in others.

    If the Conservatives do win an overall majority it doesn't look from here as if it will be a big one.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    HYUFD said:
    The SNP for big Nige demographic. I guess its the Jim Sillars wing of the Nats
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited November 2019
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sir Rod Stewart backs Boris to deliver Brexit and backs the Union too

    https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2019/11/15/break-up-of-union-would-be-a-shame-says-sir-rod-stewart/

    Wealthy expatriate Brit resident in California likes Brexit. No shit. Chuck it on the pile, we're stacking them.
    Rod had a home in Epping Forest until about 2 years ago
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    I've been watching elections for over 40 years.

    This isn't a landslide landscape.

    Who is talking of a landslide? All the experts certainly aren't.
    It has been mentioned on here a few times. HYUFD confidently said we are heading for the biggest Conservative landslide since 1983.

    The country just doesn't 'feel' like that all all. The waters are choppy, muddied and muddled.
This discussion has been closed.