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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Focus on Wokingham where two ex-CON MPs are slugging it out ag

SystemSystem Posts: 12,170
edited November 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Focus on Wokingham where two ex-CON MPs are slugging it out against each other

The Berkshire constituency of Wokingham is one of the most intriguing battle grounds at the General Election for it is where the veteran Brexiteer, John Redwood, is seeking to defend his seat against the remain backing former CON MP from the neighbouring constituency, Philip Lee. Redwood has been MP there since 1987.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,002
    First like etc.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Not first, but till an early adopter.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    I tell you who won't be voting Labour after today's announcement.

    BT shareholders :smiley:
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    When OGH throws you a tip, it's madness not to bet the farm on it. £2 at 3/1 it is. :)

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,113
    Peter Kellner was discussing the GE with Adam Boulton and said that polling shows rail nationalisation as popular and indeed other sector nationalisation but the key is when you look at the economic competence of labour it falls down

    Were labour trusted on the economy it would have a better chance of a hearing

    Cannot fault that view
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,242
    Mike - There definitely is a Green standing!

    Also worth pointing out that Wokingham seat and Wokingham Borough are far from coterminous.

    A large chunk of Wokingham Borough is in the Maidenhead seat (including Theresa May's house). Other chunks are in Bracknell Forest and Reading East.

    In turn, Wokingham seat includes 3 wards from West Berkshire.

    With no Brexit party candidate, I think Redwood should be fine. Electoral Calculus are currently giving him a 16k majority.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    Mike - There definitely is a Green standing!

    Also worth pointing out that Wokingham seat and Wokingham Borough are far from coterminous.

    A large chunk of Wokingham Borough is in the Maidenhead seat (including Theresa May's house). Other chunks are in Bracknell Forest and Reading East.

    In turn, Wokingham seat includes 3 wards from West Berkshire.

    With no Brexit party candidate, I think Redwood should be fine. Electoral Calculus are currently giving him a 16k majority.

    Bugger. When fools rush in!

    Should I cash out at £1.90?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,113
    CBI condemn labour on broadband
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    camel said:

    When OGH throws you a tip, it's madness not to bet the farm on it. £2 at 3/1 it is. :)

    Even when he doesn't even know who the candidates are? I'd say the Libs are value but 50/50 seems ambitious.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Peter Kellner was discussing the GE with Adam Boulton and said that polling shows rail nationalisation as popular and indeed other sector nationalisation but the key is when you look at the economic competence of labour it falls down

    Were labour trusted on the economy it would have a better chance of a hearing

    Cannot fault that view

    The problem for the conservatives is they defend monopoly state provision in the NHS, but are against it in rail, water etc.

    Its a problem
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    CBI condemn labour on broadband

    Finally.

    Perhaps some in this organisation, as well as others who have soft pedalled on labour's attitude to business and private enterprise, can see themselves as the useful idiots McDonnell really takes them for.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    If labour get elected will the last business owner please remember to turn the lights off.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    Mike - There definitely is a Green standing!

    Also worth pointing out that Wokingham seat and Wokingham Borough are far from coterminous.

    A large chunk of Wokingham Borough is in the Maidenhead seat (including Theresa May's house). Other chunks are in Bracknell Forest and Reading East.

    In turn, Wokingham seat includes 3 wards from West Berkshire.

    With no Brexit party candidate, I think Redwood should be fine. Electoral Calculus are currently giving him a 16k majority.

    Thanks. I've deleted that
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912
    Brom said:

    I tell you who won't be voting Labour after today's announcement.

    BT shareholders :smiley:

    Nor I expect Vodafone shareholders, or the employees of most telecoms companies.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    If labour get elected will the last business owner please remember to turn the lights off.

    If Labour get elected the lights won't be on anyway.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    BT Sport has won the exclusive rights to show the Champions League, Europa League and new Europa Conference League in the UK from 2021-24 in a £1.2bn deal.

    Given how McDonnell wants to nationalize everything, cant be long until they promise free sky / bt sports....after being stolen the state.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,113
    edited November 2019
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    If labour get elected will the last business owner please remember to turn the lights off.

    The irony is that it is illegal as a member of the EU and furthermore it would be in the courts for years as investors fought for the value of their shares and investments if it was attempted, either in or out of the EU
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    If labour get elected will the last business owner please remember to turn the lights off.

    Won't have to. The lights will go off anyway when the national grid (renationalized of course) literally runs out of power! :D
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    edited November 2019
    glw said:

    Brom said:

    I tell you who won't be voting Labour after today's announcement.

    BT shareholders :smiley:

    Nor I expect Vodafone shareholders, or the employees of most telecoms companies.
    You mean anybody with a pension scheme...
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,152
    Brom said:

    I tell you who won't be voting Labour after today's announcement.

    BT shareholders :smiley:

    I know this isn't what you meant but, as one of Britain's largest quoted companies, almost everyone is a BT shareholder if they have a pension scheme.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Election Weather Watch

    Polling day now falls within the Met Office long range forecast period and they have this to say.

    "Through early December, confidence remains very low but there could be a period of more settled weather across much of the UK. This would bring drier conditions for many through the day with a chance of frost and fog developing overnight."

    You couldn't hope for a more benign forecast at this time of year, particularly with the ground so saturated.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    edited November 2019
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    If labour get elected will the last business owner please remember to turn the lights off.

    The irony is that it is illegal as a member of the EU and furthermore it would be in the courts for years as investors fought for the value of their shares and investments if it was attempted, either in or out of the EU
    So is their policy of stealing IP and producing generic drugs. We are presuming entrist marxist will take any notice of courts.

    As a business owner, McDonnell casual willingness to bust companies and steal for the state is genuinely scary. Not something i said about the two eds.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    At the 2017 General Election the Conservatives had a 24,294 majority (40.7% majority) over the Lib Dems, with just 15,008 Labour and 1,364 Green votes to squeeze.

    The Tories got 56.6% of the vote and have won an absolute majority of the vote in almost every election on record including 1997.

    Doesn't look like a 50/50 swing seat to me.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Brom said:

    I tell you who won't be voting Labour after today's announcement.

    BT shareholders :smiley:

    I know this isn't what you meant but, as one of Britain's largest quoted companies, almost everyone is a BT shareholder if they have a pension scheme.
    That's the point I made last night. There will be millions who have private pension schemes partly invested in BT,
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Philip_Thompson said:

    At the 2017 General Election the Conservatives had a 24,294 majority (40.7% majority) over the Lib Dems, with just 15,008 Labour and 1,364 Green votes to squeeze.

    The Tories got 56.6% of the vote and have won an absolute majority of the vote in almost every election on record including 1997.

    Doesn't look like a 50/50 swing seat to me.

    GE2017 is ancient history.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,316
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    If labour get elected will the last business owner please remember to turn the lights off.

    The irony is that it is illegal as a member of the EU and furthermore it would be in the courts for years as investors fought for the value of their shares and investments if it was attempted, either in or out of the EU
    Corporate buyouts of listed companies happen all the time - this is a well trodden area of legislation. Will there be challenges? Probably. Will they be successful? Probably not.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    GIN1138 said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Brom said:

    I tell you who won't be voting Labour after today's announcement.

    BT shareholders :smiley:

    I know this isn't what you meant but, as one of Britain's largest quoted companies, almost everyone is a BT shareholder if they have a pension scheme.
    That's the point I made last night. There will be millions who have private pension schemes partly invested in BT,
    People don't necessarily vote for things in ways we would consider in their personal economic interest. See: Brexit.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    edited November 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Brom said:

    I tell you who won't be voting Labour after today's announcement.

    BT shareholders :smiley:

    I know this isn't what you meant but, as one of Britain's largest quoted companies, almost everyone is a BT shareholder if they have a pension scheme.
    That's the point I made last night. There will be millions who have private pension schemes partly invested in BT,
    The thing is the tories are so piss poor as explaining this and defending why the capitalist system works worldwide and marxist McDonnell economic never does.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Ooops, labour get caught using a fake nurse in an NHS scare video
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    Bloomberg so confident he will win that he's not going to bother to contest the first 4 Democratic primaries, not filing for New Hampshire.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/14/politics/michael-bloomberg-new-hampshire/index.html
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Charles said: "The argument is

    (1) they have published favourable ones in the past

    (2) these have not been published

    (3) therefore they are not favourable

    I forget which logical fallacy this is, but I’m pretty sure it’s a classic"


    This is a basic non-sequitur: Affirming the consequent.


  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    OblitusSumMe said:

    Election Weather Watch

    Polling day now falls within the Met Office long range forecast period and they have this to say.

    "Through early December, confidence remains very low but there could be a period of more settled weather across much of the UK. This would bring drier conditions for many through the day with a chance of frost and fog developing overnight."

    You couldn't hope for a more benign forecast at this time of year, particularly with the ground so saturated.

    Ooooh a frosty walk for a 7am vote. How festive!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MikeSmithson said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    At the 2017 General Election the Conservatives had a 24,294 majority (40.7% majority) over the Lib Dems, with just 15,008 Labour and 1,364 Green votes to squeeze.

    The Tories got 56.6% of the vote and have won an absolute majority of the vote in almost every election on record including 1997.

    Doesn't look like a 50/50 swing seat to me.

    GE2017 is ancient history.
    So Lib Dems hope and pray. Its funny we were so assured the strength of encumbancy in 2015 would save Lib Dems across the country, while now in a seat with a 24k majority that even voted a majority Tory vote in 1997 is going to fall to the Lib Dems?

    That's an over 20% swing being a 50/50 shot. Seriously? In how many other seats is there a 50/50 chance of having 40% majorities overturned?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    MikeSmithson said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    At the 2017 General Election the Conservatives had a 24,294 majority (40.7% majority) over the Lib Dems, with just 15,008 Labour and 1,364 Green votes to squeeze.

    The Tories got 56.6% of the vote and have won an absolute majority of the vote in almost every election on record including 1997.

    Doesn't look like a 50/50 swing seat to me.

    GE2017 is ancient history.
    This is year zero!
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    dyedwoolie said:

    Ooops, labour get caught using a fake nurse in an NHS scare video

    I've seen these videos with people dressed up as nurses. They don't stay dressed for long though.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Philip_Thompson said:

    At the 2017 General Election the Conservatives had a 24,294 majority (40.7% majority) over the Lib Dems, with just 15,008 Labour and 1,364 Green votes to squeeze.

    The Tories got 56.6% of the vote and have won an absolute majority of the vote in almost every election on record including 1997.

    Doesn't look like a 50/50 swing seat to me.

    If the polling is remotely accurate AND seats like this in play then the Tories will be winning just about everything in the North and Midlands. So, I suggest, one or more of the premises is inaccurate
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    camel said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Ooops, labour get caught using a fake nurse in an NHS scare video

    I've seen these videos with people dressed up as nurses. They don't stay dressed for long though.
    I prefer the live action version
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited November 2019
    On Topic: I think you have your rose-linted specacles on Mike (perhaps I should say LD tinted). If anything, I`d see 4/11 Redwood as value.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    edited November 2019
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Brom said:

    I tell you who won't be voting Labour after today's announcement.

    BT shareholders :smiley:

    I know this isn't what you meant but, as one of Britain's largest quoted companies, almost everyone is a BT shareholder if they have a pension scheme.
    That's the point I made last night. There will be millions who have private pension schemes partly invested in BT,
    The thing is the tories are so piss poor as explaining this and defending why the capitalist system works worldwide and marxist McDonnell economic never does.
    Certainly under Theresa May they were.

    I think they were better at pushing the £1.2tn cost of Labour's spending pledges last week... And given this Broadband madness that's looking a rather conservative estimate now... ;)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    I'd say more like 3 to 2, so those are good odds.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    dyedwoolie said:

    camel said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Ooops, labour get caught using a fake nurse in an NHS scare video

    I've seen these videos with people dressed up as nurses. They don't stay dressed for long though.
    I prefer the live action version
    You'll be discharged early from hospital with talk like that.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    edited November 2019
    Phil said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    If labour get elected will the last business owner please remember to turn the lights off.

    The irony is that it is illegal as a member of the EU and furthermore it would be in the courts for years as investors fought for the value of their shares and investments if it was attempted, either in or out of the EU
    Corporate buyouts of listed companies happen all the time - this is a well trodden area of legislation. Will there be challenges? Probably. Will they be successful? Probably not.
    The state owning openreach isnt ihe problem, it is then not operating it as a business by giving the internet away for free when there is already an existing competitive market.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    dyedwoolie said:

    camel said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Ooops, labour get caught using a fake nurse in an NHS scare video

    I've seen these videos with people dressed up as nurses. They don't stay dressed for long though.
    I prefer the live action version



    Is this Labour's fake nurse?
  • A_View_From_Cumbria5A_View_From_Cumbria5 Posts: 413
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    If labour get elected will the last business owner please remember to turn the lights off.

    They won't be able to afford to !
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    camel said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    camel said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Ooops, labour get caught using a fake nurse in an NHS scare video

    I've seen these videos with people dressed up as nurses. They don't stay dressed for long though.
    I prefer the live action version
    You'll be discharged early from hospital with talk like that.
    To be honest I'm getting closer to bed baths than Benny Hill nurse romps these days
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    ozymandias said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    camel said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Ooops, labour get caught using a fake nurse in an NHS scare video

    I've seen these videos with people dressed up as nurses. They don't stay dressed for long though.
    I prefer the live action version



    Is this Labour's fake nurse?
    That's her ;)
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    edited November 2019
    MikeSmithson said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    At the 2017 General Election the Conservatives had a 24,294 majority (40.7% majority) over the Lib Dems, with just 15,008 Labour and 1,364 Green votes to squeeze.

    The Tories got 56.6% of the vote and have won an absolute majority of the vote in almost every election on record including 1997.

    Doesn't look like a 50/50 swing seat to me.

    GE2017 is ancient history.
    I agree a lot has changed, but with the Lib Dems in 3rd place it's a huge ask for them to gobble up 90% of that Labour vote and take 25% of 2017 Tory voters.
    2017 was of course post Brexit and though a lot has changed I think with the threat of a Corbyn government the Lib Dems are certainly not 50/50 to take this seat as much as you would like to hype it.

    In my mind Lib Dems will be a close-ish 2nd but they needed a Brexit Party candidate and no Green in order to get the edge. Let's remember the constituency poll with BXP and it was Survation showing a Tory hold.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Pulpstar said:

    Bloomberg so confident he will win that he's not going to bother to contest the first 4 Democratic primaries, not filing for New Hampshire.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/14/politics/michael-bloomberg-new-hampshire/index.html

    I do not understand this... I cannot see who the Bloomberg constituency is if it is not exactly the Biden constituency (minus the african american voters who do not like Bloomberg)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    If labour get elected will the last business owner please remember to turn the lights off.

    They won't be able to afford to !
    Well i wont be hanging around to find out.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Bloomberg so confident he will win that he's not going to bother to contest the first 4 Democratic primaries, not filing for New Hampshire.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/14/politics/michael-bloomberg-new-hampshire/index.html

    This is some kind of performance art.
  • A_View_From_Cumbria5A_View_From_Cumbria5 Posts: 413
    Philip_Thompson said:

    At the 2017 General Election the Conservatives had a 24,294 majority (40.7% majority) over the Lib Dems, with just 15,008 Labour and 1,364 Green votes to squeeze.

    The Tories got 56.6% of the vote and have won an absolute majority of the vote in almost every election on record including 1997.

    Doesn't look like a 50/50 swing seat to me.

    It isn't but the Lib Dems have to pretend it is. Likewise the Tories have to pretend the Lib Dems are going to make gains so that voters don't all flock to Labour.

    If any rock solid Tory held constituency were to go to the Lib Dems it would be Penrith - but it won't. Like Wokingham the Tory majority will still be over 10k in the next parliament.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Mike : what is your current feeling about the Bedford constituency?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    CBI condemn labour on broadband

    Just makes the base like it more. The message is labour want to give you free stuff and business/ the tories want to stop them.

    Just a question of how much promising free stuff is too much, causing people to doubt t it.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    Jezza vacates the podium for the next leader of the opposition...
  • GasmanGasman Posts: 132
    Two ex-Conservative MPs? I thought Redwood was still a Tory? I will admit I have somewhat lost my interest in politics in recent years, but I didn't think I'd missed that.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    SandyRentool said:

    Jezza vacates the podium for the next leader of the opposition...

    Dominic Raab?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    So far in the You Gov poll the public aren’t in favour of re-nationalizing the broadband part of BT but overwhelmingly support the idea of free broadband for all homes and businesses .
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    kle4 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    CBI condemn labour on broadband

    Just makes the base like it more. The message is labour want to give you free stuff and business/ the tories want to stop them.

    Just a question of how much promising free stuff is too much, causing people to doubt t it.
    Johnson mentioned broadband in his first Downing St. speech. Presumably it was to be a feature of the tory manifesto.

    There has to be an element of fox shooting here from labour. Somewhat ironically.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    SandyRentool said:

    Jezza vacates the podium for the next leader of the opposition...

    Is it long odds ?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Gasman said:

    Two ex-Conservative MPs? I thought Redwood was still a Tory? I will admit I have somewhat lost my interest in politics in recent years, but I didn't think I'd missed that.

    Cheeky phrasing but technically he's an ex-MP. There are no MPs during the election. He's not an ex-Conservative.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited November 2019
    Dyed exciting placard update 2
    Clive Lewis placards are breeding locally. Still no green or LD effort/presence.
    Lewis as it stands I predict over 50% and an easy hold. Will update when the others pull their fingers out but the greens are very slow off the mark for them, I sense they arent confident here despite the strong council presence. Awaiting my first canvass
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    SandyRentool said:

    Jezza vacates the podium for the next leader of the opposition...

    Dick Burgon presumably?
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    As a straw in the wind. My parents have lived in Wokingham for over 40 years. My mother has voted Conservative pretty much her entire life. She voted Remain (unlike many others in the family) and was tempted to vote Lib Dem. When I spoke to her a few days ago she thinks there is too much risk in that of letting Jeremy Corbyn in so she will probably vote Tory. I think she is also uncomfortable with the Revoke LD policy due to the damage that would do to our democracy.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    nico67 said:

    So far in the You Gov poll the public aren’t in favour of re-nationalizing the broadband part of BT but overwhelmingly support the idea of free broadband for all homes and businesses .

    Voters in 'wanting someone else to pay for their free stuff' shock.....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,113
    kle4 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    CBI condemn labour on broadband

    Just makes the base like it more. The message is labour want to give you free stuff and business/ the tories want to stop them.

    Just a question of how much promising free stuff is too much, causing people to doubt t it.
    As Peter Kellner said this morning labour do not have the confidence of the public in economic matters and in the end I very much doubt all this free stuff is going to impress any other than labour's base
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    AlistairM said:

    As a straw in the wind. My parents have lived in Wokingham for over 40 years. My mother has voted Conservative pretty much her entire life. She voted Remain (unlike many others in the family) and was tempted to vote Lib Dem. When I spoke to her a few days ago she thinks there is too much risk in that of letting Jeremy Corbyn in so she will probably vote Tory. I think she is also uncomfortable with the Revoke LD policy due to the damage that would do to our democracy.

    I said from the getgo that i think the lib dem revoke policy was a terrible idea. They really should have stuck with second referendum.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    Pulpstar said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Jezza vacates the podium for the next leader of the opposition...

    Is it long odds ?
    RLB indeed. McD now talking...
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,570
    nico67 said:

    So far in the You Gov poll the public aren’t in favour of re-nationalizing the broadband part of BT but overwhelmingly support the idea of free broadband for all homes and businesses .

    Of course everyone loves free stuff but no one wants to suffer the consequences of that. In this case the 'suffering' far outweighs the benefit
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    Labour leader betting - Pidcock, Rayner & particularly Cooper all look too short right now.

    Long Bailey looks to be the chosen one I'm thinking.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,864
    MikeSmithson said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    At the 2017 General Election the Conservatives had a 24,294 majority (40.7% majority) over the Lib Dems, with just 15,008 Labour and 1,364 Green votes to squeeze.

    The Tories got 56.6% of the vote and have won an absolute majority of the vote in almost every election on record including 1997.

    Doesn't look like a 50/50 swing seat to me.

    GE2017 is ancient history.
    Hmm... fancy an evens bet that Redwood's majority is more than 8000? I just don't believe this is going to be close.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    kle4 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    CBI condemn labour on broadband

    Just makes the base like it more. The message is labour want to give you free stuff and business/ the tories want to stop them.

    Just a question of how much promising free stuff is too much, causing people to doubt t it.
    As Peter Kellner said this morning labour do not have the confidence of the public in economic matters and in the end I very much doubt all this free stuff is going to impress any other than labour's base
    The JC's Stephen Pollard makes a good point though. All the tories are doing right now is saying why labour's plans would be a disaster.

    Where are their plans, beyond getting brexit done? where is their big offer? (especiallly to young people). It's nowhere, that's where. IF its coming, they are starting to leave it late.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    edited November 2019
    deleted


  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    If it was so easy to raise billions from tech companies without damaging the economy etc why not put that money into the NHS?

    Labour prefer paying for nationalisations than paying the NHS.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Good news for fascist haters, the BNP standing just 1 candidate. Also, for the first time I can remember not a single National Front candidate
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    John McDonnell is certifiably unhinged. He really is quite mad.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Dadge said:

    StuartDickson said:

    OldKingCole said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mysticrose said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1195236741407313920?s=20

    So just to be clear about this for the blue luvvies on here this morning.

    4 by-election results in from last night. The Conservative share went down in all 4. They lost 3 of the 4 seats, two of them to huge swings to LibDems, and the SNP held the 4th comfortably.

    And you talk of landslides? Gents, this ain't no 1979.

    All bar Dunfermline had swings from Labour to Conservative, Dunfermline had a swing from SNP, Conservative and Labour to LD
    Dunfermline isn't decided until second etc preference votes are counted. LD's could (admittedly unlikely) move up to send on the next count.

    Edit; realise all concluded. In the final round 2 votes between SNP and LD. Not good for Tories; maybe good for United Unionist.
    Just a shame then that there are no United Unionist candidates on any ballot papers.
    Why is that a shame? This isn't an independence referendum, it's a council election followed by a Westminster election. Scottish Tories who vote Labour and vice versa are idiots.
    Lot of idiots out there them.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited November 2019
    SDP 19, Liberals 19 candidates for fans of old school centrists
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    dyedwoolie said:

    Good news for fascist haters, the BNP standing just 1 candidate. Also, for the first time I can remember not a single National Front candidate

    Where is BNP standing ? I have my ideas but...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    dyedwoolie said:

    Good news for fascist haters, the BNP standing just 1 candidate. Also, for the first time I can remember not a single National Front candidate

    Well UKIP have parked their tanks all over their lawns these days.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited November 2019
    Pulpstar said: "Labour leader betting - Pidcock, Rayner & particularly Cooper all look too short right now.

    Long Bailey looks to be the chosen one I'm thinking."

    Agreed - is she too young though? LP has a bee in its bonnet about electing a female - otherwise I`d say Starmer by a mile.

    Cooper = lay
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,769
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gasman said:

    Two ex-Conservative MPs? I thought Redwood was still a Tory? I will admit I have somewhat lost my interest in politics in recent years, but I didn't think I'd missed that.

    Cheeky phrasing but technically he's an ex-MP. There are no MPs during the election. He's not an ex-Conservative.
    Thanks, just read the article and was confusing me too - thought surely there must be a Conservative standing too, if Redwood no longer was Conservative
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,864
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Good news for fascist haters, the BNP standing just 1 candidate. Also, for the first time I can remember not a single National Front candidate

    Well UKIP have parked their tanks all over their lawns these days.
    I wonder how many of them there is going to be. UKIP have been invisible whilst Farage does his seven veils performance and they really don't seem to be troubling the scorers in the polls.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited November 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Good news for fascist haters, the BNP standing just 1 candidate. Also, for the first time I can remember not a single National Front candidate

    Where is BNP standing ? I have my ideas but...
    Not sure, going off number crunchers count list.
    Bxp 276,they are not standing in 'some' seats, the hunt is on for which!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited November 2019
    Oh goody, Corbyn says the Labour manifesto will 'knock your socks off'.

    I can't wait. The hundreds of billions they've been spaffing around so far are hilarious enough, but it sounds as though we have even more lunacy to look forward to.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Apologies if I`ve missed this, but is UKIP contesting the GE?
  • noisywinternoisywinter Posts: 249
    Tories have moved out a bit on majority to 1.65. was 1.57 some of yesterday

    Hopefully reading too much into this but feeling a bit uneasy!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    edited November 2019
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Oh goody, Corbyn says the Labour manifesto will 'knock your socks off'.

    I can't wait. The hundreds of billions they've been spaffing around so far are hilarious enough, but we're going to get even more lunacy.

    Are you not slightly concerned that the public might go for free owls for all? I certainly am.

    The lower middle class has seen stagnating wages / life improvements and with the tories just saying get brexit done, i am genuinely worried a bit like brexit people might go ahh f##k lets roll the dice.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,570
    Stocky said:

    Apologies if I`ve missed this, but is UKIP contesting the GE?

    Someone yesterday said 23 seats
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    UKIP 42 runners and riders, they should end up under 50,000 votes nationally
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Oh goody, Corbyn says the Labour manifesto will 'knock your socks off'.

    I can't wait. The hundreds of billions they've been spaffing around so far are hilarious enough, but we're going to get even more lunacy.

    Where is the conservative offer?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    edited November 2019
    Stocky said:

    Pulpstar said: "Labour leader betting - Pidcock, Rayner & particularly Cooper all look too short right now.

    Long Bailey looks to be the chosen one I'm thinking."

    Agreed - is she too young though? LP has a bee in its bonnet about electing a female - otherwise I`d say Starmer by a mile.

    Cooper = lay

    I'm hoping the PLP/establishment candidate is Thornberry rather than Starmer.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Stocky said:

    Apologies if I`ve missed this, but is UKIP contesting the GE?

    Someone yesterday said 23 seats
    Number cruncher politics on twitter had the final counts. Its 42 for ukip
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,570
    dyedwoolie said:

    Good news for fascist haters, the BNP standing just 1 candidate. Also, for the first time I can remember not a single National Front candidate

    Shouldn't that be good news for everyone?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    McDonnell when he's not moonlighting as Shadow Chancellor

    https://youtu.be/e01G1E7myl4
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,570
    dyedwoolie said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Stocky said:

    Apologies if I`ve missed this, but is UKIP contesting the GE?

    Someone yesterday said 23 seats
    Number cruncher politics on twitter had the final counts. Its 42 for ukip
    Cheers

    At least I am only peddling old news rather than fake news :)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    noisywinter said:

    Tories have moved out a bit on majority to 1.65. was 1.57 some of yesterday

    Hopefully reading too much into this but feeling a bit uneasy!

    Bad polling incoming?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Stocky said:

    Apologies if I`ve missed this, but is UKIP contesting the GE?

    Someone yesterday said 23 seats
    Number cruncher politics on twitter had the final counts. Its 42 for ukip
    Cheers

    At least I am only peddling old news rather than fake news :)
    Progress is progress ;)
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Good news for fascist haters, the BNP standing just 1 candidate. Also, for the first time I can remember not a single National Front candidate

    Shouldn't that be good news for everyone?
    Fascist haters are everyone, right?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    Can't be any NI Tories if the CON count is 631 ?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Are you not slightly concerned that the public might go for free owls for all? I certainly am.

    Free owls is one thing. Free owls, bears, dinosaurs [lots of those], penguins, sloth bears, a whole Noah's Ark of freebies, gives Boris an open goal, and I don't think the Tories will repeat Theresa May's incomprehensible mistake of giving Labour a free ride.
This discussion has been closed.