Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now five of the top 6 in the Democratic nomination betting are

123457»

Comments

  • Surprised Swinson's doing so poorly.

    Hmm.

    I’m not surprised in the least.

    We’ve got to know her over the years north of the border. She’s in the same category as Jim Murphy, wee Dougie, Johann Lamont, Jack McConnell, Wullie Rennie, Danny Alexander, Ruthie, Mundell and Carmichael. A complete diddy.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Great news Royal Mail has won its high court injunction blocking the December postal strike, means postal votes can be delivered and returned unhindered and CWU bullyboy tactics will not work this time

    I thought you said it did not matter if postal ballots were returned late as long as the postmark was on time? :smiley:
    Even if it was (it is in many US states and Florida, see 2000) you still need to get them returned early enough to be postmarked, so no strike at all is the best result
    It's a standard thing here in the US that it's the postmark date that counts for meeting any sort of postal deadline.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    Surprised Swinson's doing so poorly.

    Hmm.

    Yes terrible that she only has the second best ratings, she should stand down and leave the field to the other three onanists ( a word 90% of the population have never heard)
    Boris has just lifted that percentage by some distance
    Surprised that you are not condemning the use of such language by HM Prime Minister, it is neither amusing or clever, can you imagine if Swinson and Sturgeon had called farage corbyn and Johnson wankers! They would be right but they would be condemned by the right wing media.
  • TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's strange how many PB posters seem convinced that Labour are definitely set to close their present gap behind the Tories and that this has already commenced, yet both both the spread-betting firms offering GE seats are today showing the Tories at a new high.

    Hes not going to close it. Or at least not by enough...
    He needs the LDs vote to collapse again in his favour, less likely this time given the LDs are taking a much harder pro Remain line and a big manifesto gaffe again from the Tories, unlikely as Boris will run a more populist campaign than May.

    If not Labour is sleepwalking to a 1983 style wipeout if Yougov is correct
    For once I agree with you I think sub 185 if they are lucky. There is too much going against them. The one issue not yet highlighted is a return to early 70’s trade union rights. If you can stomach that, the nationalization, the leader and the spending plans then anyone who doesn’t want a Tory or labour robot needs to look elsewhere.
    If the LD vote holds up and the Brexit Party vote holds up in Labour seats Corbyn is screwed as I cannot see any current Tory voters now voting Corbyn Labour
    My sense is that Tory Remainers think Boris is a bit of a twat, and have serious doubts about his Brexit Deal, but think on balance Brexit has to be followed through and tried now and he’s infinitely preferable to Corbyn.

    The Lib Dems aren’t convincing them. For one thing they’re just proposing cliched old soft-Left LD policies (including higher taxes to pay for them) and they’re not clear that Jo Swinson won’t end up propping up a left-wing Labour Government anyway. Despite what she says.
    Absolute rubbish: Boris is a huge twat.

    Other than that, yep just about spot on.
    Lol.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,898
    rpjs said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Great news Royal Mail has won its high court injunction blocking the December postal strike, means postal votes can be delivered and returned unhindered and CWU bullyboy tactics will not work this time

    I thought you said it did not matter if postal ballots were returned late as long as the postmark was on time? :smiley:
    Even if it was (it is in many US states and Florida, see 2000) you still need to get them returned early enough to be postmarked, so no strike at all is the best result
    It's a standard thing here in the US that it's the postmark date that counts for meeting any sort of postal deadline.
    Not sure we want to replicate the mad US voting system where it takes literally weeks to fully count the ballots in some places though ;)
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    blueblue said:

    HYUFD said:
    Nice. Interesting that the Boris-Corbyn gap has remained static, or even widened slightly, as they've both moved up.
    It will.end up 48/52 on election day
  • I say, there's rumour of a new thread.
  • nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    Surprised Swinson's doing so poorly.

    Hmm.

    Yes terrible that she only has the second best ratings, she should stand down and leave the field to the other three onanists ( a word 90% of the population have never heard)
    Boris has just lifted that percentage by some distance
    Surprised that you are not condemning the use of such language by HM Prime Minister, it is neither amusing or clever, can you imagine if Swinson and Sturgeon had called farage corbyn and Johnson wankers! They would be right but they would be condemned by the right wing media.
    Of course it is naff but Boris turned it to his advantage
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    Surprised Swinson's doing so poorly.

    Hmm.

    Yes terrible that she only has the second best ratings, she should stand down and leave the field to the other three onanists ( a word 90% of the population have never heard)
    Boris has just lifted that percentage by some distance
    Surprised that you are not condemning the use of such language by HM Prime Minister, it is neither amusing or clever, can you imagine if Swinson and Sturgeon had called farage corbyn and Johnson wankers! They would be right but they would be condemned by the right wing media.
    Of course it is naff but Boris turned it to his advantage
    So that’s alright then when it’s actually disgusting as is equally spaffing money up the wall, is the man obsessed by masturbation?
  • Plaid Cymru shortening in Arfon (PC Maj = 92)

    PC 1/9
    Lab 8/1
    Con 20/1
    LD 33/1
    Bxp 200/1
  • HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's strange how many PB posters seem convinced that Labour are definitely set to close their present gap behind the Tories and that this has already commenced, yet both both the spread-betting firms offering GE seats are today showing the Tories at a new high.

    Hes not going to close it. Or at least not by enough...
    He needs the LDs vote to collapse again in his favour, less likely this time given the LDs are taking a much harder pro Remain line and a big manifesto gaffe again from the Tories, unlikely as Boris will run a more populist campaign than May.

    If not Labour is sleepwalking to a 1983 style wipeout if Yougov is correct
    For once I agree with you I think sub 185 if they are lucky. There is too much going against them. The one issue not yet highlighted is a return to early 70’s trade union rights. If you can stomach that, the nationalization, the leader and the spending plans then anyone who doesn’t want a Tory or labour robot needs to look elsewhere.
    If the LD vote holds up and the Brexit Party vote holds up in Labour seats Corbyn is screwed as I cannot see any current Tory voters now voting Corbyn Labour
    My sense is that Tory Remainers think Boris is a bit of a twat, and have serious doubts about his Brexit Deal, but think on balance Brexit has to be followed through and tried now and he’s infinitely preferable to Corbyn.

    The Lib Dems aren’t convincing them. For one thing they’re just proposing cliched old soft-Left LD policies (including higher taxes to pay for them) and they’re not clear that Jo Swinson won’t end up propping up a left-wing Labour Government anyway. Despite what she says.
    Well said..... I keep banging on about this but I also find the yellows getting in to bed with a national independence party re Wales as bang out of order.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    Surprised Swinson's doing so poorly.

    Hmm.

    Yes terrible that she only has the second best ratings, she should stand down and leave the field to the other three onanists ( a word 90% of the population have never heard)
    Boris has just lifted that percentage by some distance
    Surprised that you are not condemning the use of such language by HM Prime Minister, it is neither amusing or clever, can you imagine if Swinson and Sturgeon had called farage corbyn and Johnson wankers! They would be right but they would be condemned by the right wing media.
    But it is hilarious: I'm already imagining Corbyn playing the starring role in a movie about the world's wimpiest and most, er, self-involved warrior:

    ONAN THE BARBARIAN! :lol:
  • SNP start FAV in Banff & Buchan (Con Maj = 3,693)

    SNP 5/6
    Con 5/4
    Lab 100/1
    LD 100/1
  • nichomar said:

    Surprised Swinson's doing so poorly.

    Hmm.

    Yes terrible that she only has the second best ratings, she should stand down and leave the field to the other three onanists ( a word 90% of the population have never heard)
    I must admit I didn't know it and assumed it was something to do with birds.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    nichomar said:

    Surprised Swinson's doing so poorly.

    Hmm.

    Yes terrible that she only has the second best ratings, she should stand down and leave the field to the other three onanists ( a word 90% of the population have never heard)
    Boris has just lifted that percentage by some distance
    Surprised that you are not condemning the use of such language by HM Prime Minister, it is neither amusing or clever, can you imagine if Swinson and Sturgeon had called farage corbyn and Johnson wankers! They would be right but they would be condemned by the right wing media.
    Of course it is naff but Boris turned it to his advantage
    So that’s alright then when it’s actually disgusting as is equally spaffing money up the wall, is the man obsessed by masturbation?
    Spaffing money up the wall is different. As a former captain he was, of course, simply referring to the Eton Wall game.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    This is going to be on new of this times when there'll be a poll out showing the Majority of people agree with him again won't it?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794

    nichomar said:

    Surprised Swinson's doing so poorly.

    Hmm.

    Yes terrible that she only has the second best ratings, she should stand down and leave the field to the other three onanists ( a word 90% of the population have never heard)
    I must admit I didn't know it and assumed it was something to do with birds.
    It involves spilling one's seed. Presumably the source of the ambiguity. As anybody who has cleaned out a budgie's cage knows.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    alb1on said:

    HYUFD said:
    Go Boris.

    Awful for Swinson. As I have reported finding on the doorstep.....
    Your fixation with Swinson betrays the fears of so many Conservatives. As I have said before, the LD performance will vary greatly by seat and region. In most of the North and Midlands (excepting a few well known seats) they will be an irrelevance and may perform more poorly than suggested by the polls. In London and large parts of the Home Counties they are going to deliver some awful shocks to the Conservatives. Never extrapolate local doorstep blather to the whole country (if I did that based on Guildford the Conservatives would be lucky to keep a seat in the south).
    I think the LD strategy is one that works - and is self-reinforced - in the Westminster bubble amongst the wonks, politicians, journalists and commentariat who all circulate there.

    Not only do they often socialise with each other they’re often on the same WhatsApp groups.

    That’s why Sam Gyimah, Philip Lee, Matthew Paris, Michael Heseltine and Jo Johnson have all reached similar conclusions.
    All of the parties exist within the bubble - but it does not alter the fact that performance in this election is likely to be more locally and regionally variable than ever before - and for MarqueeMark to try to extrapolate national trends from the Torbay elderly is as stupid as me suggesting Guildford voters are a good indicator for how Workington will vote.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    Boris speech to the car workers in Rugby just now was one of his best, but Tom Newton Dunn provided the big moment. He asked Boris if he had meant to suggest Corbyn was a 'masturbator' with which the whole factory collapsed in mirth. Boris gave it time to sink in then quipped it may have been in a 'first draft'' but that it had disappeared into the ether and it went down a storm.

    Shortly after as Boris concluded, the factory floor erupted to their feet applauding and laughing

    Boy, does Boris do charisma

    This is nicely written and genuinely amusing satire. Let's have more of this from you please!
    👏 ☺
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    Being objective as I can be on trade unions I think the RMT and CWU are exploiting a near monopoly position to get extra benefits for their members at the expense of the public.

    Conversely, I think workers for Amazon and Asda may well have a legitimate grievance.

    We need strong unions in the private sector but not so much in the public sector.

    We have the very opposite.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270
    edited November 2019
    Noo said:
    Why are you repeating this? I agree it is of interest and the results please me as they match my own views. But it is yesterday's news.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794

    Being objective as I can be on trade unions I think the RMT and CWU are exploiting a near monopoly position to get extra benefits for their members at the expense of the public.

    Conversely, I think workers for Amazon and Asda may well have a legitimate grievance.

    Wait a minute, it's almost like....somebody changed the law to make it easier for private sector employers to ban unions and strikes! Amazing! How could that have possibly happened!?

    :(
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231

    Surely most people who support the rule of law and oppose extra-judicial killings would agree with Corbyn on this. Better to arrest people and subject them to a fair trial followed by a suitable punishment if possible. Note the if possible. Maybe it wasn't possible this time. If you read what Corbyn actually said as opposed to the hysterical right wing over reaction to it then it looks quite reasonable, as is so often the case. I am no fan of Corbyn but Woodcock is ridiculous.
    Agree.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,322
    MikeL said:

    Laura K report at beginning of BBC1 6pm News - at least 80% of it was Laura K talking - with very brief clips of politicians dotted around within it.

    I seriously reckon that if just 10 mins later you asked everyone who watched it what Laura K had said at least 90% of people wouldn't remember a single thing other than "she was talking about the election".

    The whole thing was in one ear out the other ear stuff.

    The contrast with John Cole 30 years ago is huge - in those days Cole said a few words and most of the report was listening to the politicians - which gave the public a chance to assess the politicians.

    In contrast Laura K talking in very general terms achieves absolutely nothing.

    I think the rot set in when Andrew Marr had the job and pioneered (as far as I'm aware) the style of trying to write real-time narrative history instead of allowing the facts to speak for themselves.
This discussion has been closed.