If he really insists on not extending - which I doubt - I would expect some sort of bare bones deal rather than nothing. It will be interesting to see if Betfair frame a "No Deal in 2020" market. I suspect they won't because "No Deal" will be too difficult to define. What there should be, however, is an "Extend Transition?" market. I will be backing Yes on that if the price is anything better than about 1.5.
The prize is a majority that enables exit through the WA available.
To leavers that is Brexit done because remainers will have failed to overturn the referendum result.
Remainers might get excited about Boris extending next year (no doubt he will) but leavers will just shrug their shoulders.
Politically it makes no sense not to extend regardless of ERG ranting.
We left the EU but are still paying £10bn a year to it is going to be a hard thing for Johnson to justify
And I suspect extending will require us to continue paying the £1bn a month or so we currently pay it.
Re the 10bn, doesn't it depend on what it's for?
If it's a bunch of EU administered programs that we've opted in to, like Gallileo and Erasmus and the ESA and EURATOM and others, is it really that much of a problem?
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
It just seems to happen so regularly, and he seems to not really know what to do? Like, sure, they may all be partisans, but also, be better at having comebacks?
I mean a comeback doesn't need to be antagonising. He could try and be sympathetic. He could try and do the "that was David, I'm not him, I care". He doesn't. He just goes around with a face that has been slapped.
Corbyn isn't popular, but anytime I've seen him confronted by people in videos he does look like he is at least trying to engage in the issue.
He certainly doesn't engage when he's called out as a terrorist supporter!
A point I'd like to make which I haven't seen anyone else mention.
2017 May called the election for 8th June on the 18th April. On 4th May there were the local elections, where tories did rather well.
Seems to be a higher gearing the Labours recovery post local election, especially for Tory decline during this period. Interesting factor to consider this time around.
A GE is probably different than all other elections?
Agreed but having a major election just weeks before the General Election back in 2017, as people seeing the results seems to have been a boost to labour was my point
And my point there was still too much protest in local election results. In GE that protest vote is squeezed, not necessarily by Labour, where LD are challengers to Tories Labour will get squeezed to lost deposits as their own party members vote LD. You won’t get that in council election.
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
It just seems to happen so regularly, and he seems to not really know what to do? Like, sure, they may all be partisans, but also, be better at having comebacks?
I mean a comeback doesn't need to be antagonising. He could try and be sympathetic. He could try and do the "that was David, I'm not him, I care". He doesn't. He just goes around with a face that has been slapped.
Corbyn isn't popular, but anytime I've seen him confronted by people in videos he does look like he is at least trying to engage in the issue.
He is being sympathetic. His replies are sympathetic.
Oh man.
Is this what we've become?
Of course, he could have used his Prime Ministeral 4x4s to take supplies into Fishlake. That would have helped.
I've just put some trend lines through the Lab and Con polling numbers from Wikipedia covering the period since the election was called. Both parties vote share increasing, and the gradients of the two trend lines are identical. Gap between the two trend lines is 10.5% (Or 10.52% if Sunil is watching!)
Conclusion: The polls are not narrowing, but there is a squeeze on the other parties. The Farage partial pull-out will of course bugger up the trend!
Very intrigued to see your working out as Britain elects posted 3 hours ago saying the gap closed by 2.4% over the last week or so
Here is the data set. I just stuck it into Excel and added trendlines:
Date Con Lab 11–12 Nov 42% 28% 8–11 Nov 39% 31% 6–9 Nov 41% 29% 7–8 Nov 39% 26% 6–8 Nov 35% 29% 6–8 Nov 41% 29% 6–8 Nov 40% 30% 5–8 Nov 37% 29% 5–6 Nov 36% 25% 30 Oct–5 Nov 36% 29% 1–4 Nov 38% 25% 1–4 Nov 38% 31% 31 Oct–2 Nov 40% 28% 30 Oct–1 Nov 42% 26% 30 Oct–1 Nov 39% 27% 30–31 Oct 36% 28% 30–31 Oct 36% 28% 30–31 Oct 40% 29% 29–30 Oct 36% 21% 29–30 Oct 34% 26%
I still find this useful, overlays the trend now (since election called) vs 2017.
How about overlaying the trend vs 2015 or other previous elections? 2017 isn't the only election that has ever occured and the thing that changed 2017 hasn't happened this year which is Labour squeezing the Tory vote in the final 2 weeks of the campaign [after dementia tax]. Minor party squeeze stopped in a few days time according to those lines.
I think that's spot on. In 2017, LibDems and Greens got squeezed with every poll. Plot it on exponential axis, and you see them losing a little bit of support every day,
This time around, there was an initial plunge from the LDs, then nothing, nowt, zero. This should make Labour very nervous.
How should Labour, including their own members answer polling when they are going to tactically vote remain alliance? To what degree is this built into remain alliance totals we are seeing?
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
It just seems to happen so regularly, and he seems to not really know what to do? Like, sure, they may all be partisans, but also, be better at having comebacks?
I mean a comeback doesn't need to be antagonising. He could try and be sympathetic. He could try and do the "that was David, I'm not him, I care". He doesn't. He just goes around with a face that has been slapped.
Corbyn isn't popular, but anytime I've seen him confronted by people in videos he does look like he is at least trying to engage in the issue.
He is being sympathetic. His replies are sympathetic.
Oh man.
Is this what we've become?
What the hell do you want him to say?
How about sorry. There’s not been enough cleaning of rivers. We cocked up, will learn from it. Sorry.
And you know that do you? That it was due to not cleaning rivers? You've done the research?
Or is the case flooding happens. It has always happened. Is happening and will at some point happen again in the future. Here maybe or anywhere prone to flooding. Like next to a bloody river.
What's he got to be sorry about? That it rained?
Presumably under Labour no one will ever get flooded.
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
It just seems to happen so regularly, and he seems to not really know what to do? Like, sure, they may all be partisans, but also, be better at having comebacks?
I mean a comeback doesn't need to be antagonising. He could try and be sympathetic. He could try and do the "that was David, I'm not him, I care". He doesn't. He just goes around with a face that has been slapped.
Corbyn isn't popular, but anytime I've seen him confronted by people in videos he does look like he is at least trying to engage in the issue.
He is being sympathetic. His replies are sympathetic.
Oh man.
Is this what we've become?
Of course, he could have used hs Prime Ministeral 4x4s to take supples nto Fshlake. That would have helped.
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
It just seems to happen so regularly, and he seems to not really know what to do? Like, sure, they may all be partisans, but also, be better at having comebacks?
I mean a comeback doesn't need to be antagonising. He could try and be sympathetic. He could try and do the "that was David, I'm not him, I care". He doesn't. He just goes around with a face that has been slapped.
Corbyn isn't popular, but anytime I've seen him confronted by people in videos he does look like he is at least trying to engage in the issue.
He is being sympathetic. His replies are sympathetic.
Oh man.
Is this what we've become?
What the hell do you want him to say?
How about sorry. There’s not been enough cleaning of rivers. We cocked up, will learn from it. Sorry.
Cleaning rivers doesn't help.
Reforresting hills to soak water helps.
Spot on. It reduces the landslips that block roads and rail, too.
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
It just seems to happen so regularly, and he seems to not really know what to do? Like, sure, they may all be partisans, but also, be better at having comebacks?
I mean a comeback doesn't need to be antagonising. He could try and be sympathetic. He could try and do the "that was David, I'm not him, I care". He doesn't. He just goes around with a face that has been slapped.
Corbyn isn't popular, but anytime I've seen him confronted by people in videos he does look like he is at least trying to engage in the issue.
He is being sympathetic. His replies are sympathetic.
Oh man.
Is this what we've become?
What the hell do you want him to say?
How about sorry. There’s not been enough cleaning of rivers. We cocked up, will learn from it. Sorry.
And you know that do you? That it was due to not cleaning rivers? You've done the research?
Or is the case flooding happens. It has always happened. Is happening and will at some point happen again in the future. Here maybe or anywhere prone to flooding. Like next to a bloody river.
What's he got to be sorry about? That it rained?
Presumably under Labour no one will ever get flooded.
Conservative policies, and cuts, have made flooding worse.
Another one dragged off to the torture chamber. At least they get the benefit of seeing jo in the leather mini and thigh high boots as she comes at them with the hot branding iron.
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
It just seems to happen so regularly, and he seems to not really know what to do? Like, sure, they may all be partisans, but also, be better at having comebacks?
I mean a comeback doesn't need to be antagonising. He could try and be sympathetic. He could try and do the "that was David, I'm not him, I care". He doesn't. He just goes around with a face that has been slapped.
Corbyn isn't popular, but anytime I've seen him confronted by people in videos he does look like he is at least trying to engage in the issue.
He is being sympathetic. His replies are sympathetic.
Oh man.
Is this what we've become?
Of course, he could have used hs Prime Ministeral 4x4s to take supples nto Fshlake. That would have helped.
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
It just seems to happen so regularly, and he seems to not really know what to do? Like, sure, they may all be partisans, but also, be better at having comebacks?
I mean a comeback doesn't need to be antagonising. He could try and be sympathetic. He could try and do the "that was David, I'm not him, I care". He doesn't. He just goes around with a face that has been slapped.
Corbyn isn't popular, but anytime I've seen him confronted by people in videos he does look like he is at least trying to engage in the issue.
He is being sympathetic. His replies are sympathetic.
Oh man.
Is this what we've become?
What the hell do you want him to say?
How about sorry. There’s not been enough cleaning of rivers. We cocked up, will learn from it. Sorry.
And you know that do you? That it was due to not cleaning rivers? You've done the research?
Or is the case flooding happens. It has always happened. Is happening and will at some point happen again in the future. Here maybe or anywhere prone to flooding. Like next to a bloody river.
What's he got to be sorry about? That it rained?
Presumably under Labour no one will ever get flooded.
And you know it’s not because of inaction on the rivers.
Anyway no point is us arguing, the local media with get to bottom of it and inform voters before voting day.
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just te.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
Thernough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
It just seems to happen so regularly, and he seems to not really know what to do? Like, sure, they may all be partisans, but also, be better at having comebacks?
I mean a comeback doesn't need to be antagonising. He could try and be sympathetic. He could try and do the "that was David, I'm not him, I care". He doesn't. He just goes around with a face that has been slapped.
Corbyn isn't popular, but anytime I've seen him confronted by people in videos he does look like he is at least trying to engage in the issue.
He is being sympathetic. His replies are sympathetic.
Oh man.
Is this what we've become?
What the hell do you want him to say?
How about sorry. There’s not been enough cleaning of rivers. We cocked up, will learn from it. Sorry.
And you know that do you? That it was due to not cleaning rivers? You've done the research?
Or is the case flooding happens. It has always happened. Is happening and will at some point happen again in the future. Here maybe or anywhere prone to flooding. Like next to a bloody river.
What's he got to be sorry about? That it rained?
Presumably under Labour no one will ever get flooded.
Conservative policies, and cuts, have made flooding worse.
I suppose it was the same when Gloucestershire flooded in 2007 it was due to Tory cuts and policies as well? You know when water had to be shipped in when the electricity sub-stations flooded. That was the Tories fault as well?
Or was that Labours fault? Or was it the fault that, well, it rained. Alot?
I've just put some trend lines through the Lab and Con polling numbers from Wikipedia covering the period since the election was called. Both parties vote share increasing, and the gradients of the two trend lines are identical. Gap between the two trend lines is 10.5% (Or 10.52% if Sunil is watching!)
Conclusion: The polls are not narrowing, but there is a squeeze on the other parties. The Farage partial pull-out will of course bugger up the trend!
Very intrigued to see your working out as Britain elects posted 3 hours ago saying the gap closed by 2.4% over the last week or so
Here is the data set. I just stuck it into Excel and added trendlines:
Date Con Lab 11–12 Nov 42% 28% 8–11 Nov 39% 31% 6–9 Nov 41% 29% 7–8 Nov 39% 26% 6–8 Nov 35% 29% 6–8 Nov 41% 29% 6–8 Nov 40% 30% 5–8 Nov 37% 29% 5–6 Nov 36% 25% 30 Oct–5 Nov 36% 29% 1–4 Nov 38% 25% 1–4 Nov 38% 31% 31 Oct–2 Nov 40% 28% 30 Oct–1 Nov 42% 26% 30 Oct–1 Nov 39% 27% 30–31 Oct 36% 28% 30–31 Oct 36% 28% 30–31 Oct 40% 29% 29–30 Oct 36% 21% 29–30 Oct 34% 26%
I still find this useful, overlays the trend now (since election called) vs 2017.
How about overlaying the trend vs 2015 or other previous elections? 2017 isn't the only election that has ever occured and the thing that changed 2017 hasn't happened this year which is Labour squeezing the Tory vote in the final 2 weeks of the campaign [after dementia tax]. Minor party squeeze stopped in a few days time according to those lines.
2017 has Labour led by the same leader and has the Brexit effect thrown in.
There is a lot more LD to squeeze this time (though how squeezable it is depends on the nature of the current LD vote, previous Tories likely not going to switch to Corbyn).
Also more BXP than UKIP to squeeze, but still less than LD.
But who knows? Con unpopular last minute policies seem unlikely. Some Johnson skeleton though, other than those already known - maybe
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
It just seems to happen so regularly, and he seems to not really know what to do? Like, sure, they may all be partisans, but also, be better at having comebacks?
I mean a comeback doesn't need to be antagonising. He could try and be sympathetic. He could try and do the "that was David, I'm not him, I care". He doesn't. He just goes around with a face that has been slapped.
Corbyn isn't popular, but anytime I've seen him confronted by people in videos he does look like he is at least trying to engage in the issue.
He is being sympathetic. His replies are sympathetic.
Oh man.
Is this what we've become?
Of course, he could have used hs Prime Ministeral 4x4s to take supples nto Fshlake. That would have helped.
I cant understand Johnsons actions here with regards to the flooding.
It was obviously going to become an electoral issue, scale yet to be seen. But for the life of me I cant understand why he didn't throw himself at it early door as damage limitation. Now becoming a far bigger issue than should have been.
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
It just seems to happen so regularly, and he seems to not really know what to do? Like, sure, they may all be partisans, but also, be better at having comebacks?
I mean a comeback doesn't need to be antagonising. He could try and be sympathetic. He could try and do the "that was David, I'm not him, I care". He doesn't. He just goes around with a face that has been slapped.
Corbyn isn't popular, but anytime I've seen him confronted by people in videos he does look like he is at least trying to engage in the issue.
He is being sympathetic. His replies are sympathetic.
Oh man.
Is this what we've become?
What the hell do you want him to say?
How about sorry. There’s not been enough cleaning of rivers. We cocked up, will learn from it. Sorry.
Cleaning rivers doesn't help.
Reforresting hills to soak water helps.
Spot on. It reduces the landslips that block roads and rail, too.
There’s probably a range of measures to be considered, Not building on flood plains is another one. Where in nature the water dispersed, on concrete it doesn’t so well.
How about sorry. There’s not been enough cleaning of rivers. We cocked up, will learn from it. Sorry.
And you know that do you? That it was due to not cleaning rivers? You've done the research?
Or is the case flooding happens. It has always happened. Is happening and will at some point happen again in the future. Here maybe or anywhere prone to flooding. Like next to a bloody river.
What's he got to be sorry about? That it rained?
Presumably under Labour no one will ever get flooded.
Conservative policies, and cuts, have made flooding worse.
I suppose it was the same when Gloucestershire flooded in 2007 it was due to Tory cuts and policies as well? You know when water had to be shipped in when the electricity sub-stations flooded. That was the Tories fault as well?
Or was that Labours fault? Or was it the fault that, well, it rained. Alot?
I mean, floods have got worse, and their impacts on people have worsened. This is partly due to more rain (which is partly due to more extreme weather due to climate change). But it is also a policy decision issue. You may not have noticed, but that article was from 2015, when there were also really bad floods in York. 4 years later, still really bad floods. Lessons could have been learned, and yet have not been.
We left the EU but are still paying £10bn a year to it is going to be a hard thing for Johnson to justify
And I suspect extending will require us to continue paying the £1bn a month or so we currently pay it.
We won't be in the lead up to an election so it won't matter other than to the fringes on both sides looking to continue a war that will have already been won.
I think you'll find, assuming Boris wins a majority, that once the deal is voted through you will find the subject falling right down the list of concerns for voters.
Other than for Labour who will then begin an internecine war as they try to decide on their future positioning on Europe.
Of course, if Boris fails to get a majority then the problems are all in the Tory camp which is why this election is so important.
One of the reasons why Boris is defining the WA as brexit is because nothing changes apart from we do not have MEP's any more and Boris does not have to rock up once a month to a summit. The population apart from the ultra Pro-EU lot, will all go Brexit easy-peasy it was.
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
It just seems to happen so regularly, and he seems to not really know what to do? Like, sure, they may all be partisans, but also, be better at having comebacks?
I mean a comeback doesn't need to be antagonising. He could try and be sympathetic. He could try and do the "that was David, I'm not him, I care". He doesn't. He just goes around with a face that has been slapped.
Corbyn isn't popular, but anytime I've seen him confronted by people in videos he does look like he is at least trying to engage in the issue.
He is being sympathetic. His replies are sympathetic.
Oh man.
Is this what we've become?
Of course, he could have used hs Prime Ministeral 4x4s to take supples nto Fshlake. That would have helped.
"Please Don't Make Me Decide!" would be more honest...
Exactly so. The decision was taken - god knows why but it was - that the question of our relationship with the EU was one that should not be in the gift of politicians, not even PMs or wannabe PMs, but rather must be answered by the public in a Referendum. Jeremy's and Labour's position is perfectly in line with that.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
It just seems to happen so regularly, and he seems to not really know what to do? Like, sure, they may all be partisans, but also, be better at having comebacks?
I mean a comeback doesn't need to be antagonising. He could try and be sympathetic. He could try and do the "that was David, I'm not him, I care". He doesn't. He just goes around with a face that has been slapped.
Corbyn isn't popular, but anytime I've seen him confronted by people in videos he does look like he is at least trying to engage in the issue.
He is being sympathetic. His replies are sympathetic.
Oh man.
Is this what we've become?
Of course, he could have used hs Prime Ministeral 4x4s to take supples nto Fshlake. That would have helped.
Oh dear. 🙁. The satirists are going to love that. What idiot convinced him it was a good stunt to pull?
I guess, the satirists organising getting the supplies into the flooded area.
You think the stunt was a good idea? You would have suggested it to him?
If you're just a local Joe who does that, you are doing a useful thing. If you are the PM, with the full power of the office, and you do that it is a stunt. Like Trump handing out toilet paper to deal with a storm his government massively underfunded the recovery for.
How about sorry. There’s not been enough cleaning of rivers. We cocked up, will learn from it. Sorry.
And you know that do you? That it was due to not cleaning rivers? You've done the research?
Or is the case flooding happens. It has always happened. Is happening and will at some point happen again in the future. Here maybe or anywhere prone to flooding. Like next to a bloody river.
What's he got to be sorry about? That it rained?
Presumably under Labour no one will ever get flooded.
Conservative policies, and cuts, have made flooding worse.
I suppose it was the same when Gloucestershire flooded in 2007 it was due to Tory cuts and policies as well? You know when water had to be shipped in when the electricity sub-stations flooded. That was the Tories fault as well?
Or was that Labours fault? Or was it the fault that, well, it rained. Alot?
I mean, floods have got worse, and their impacts on people have worsened. This is partly due to more rain (which is partly due to more extreme weather due to climate change). But it is also a policy decision issue. You may not have noticed, but that article was from 2015, when there were also really bad floods in York. 4 years later, still really bad floods. Lessons could have been learned, and yet have not been.
And I repeat the floods of 2007 were much worse than the floods happening now.
I know. I was there getting water from water tankers brought in and filling up bottles. For a good few weeks.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
It just seems to happen so regularly, and he seems to not really know what to do? Like, sure, they may all be partisans, but also, be better at having comebacks?
I mean a comeback doesn't need to be antagonising. He could try and be sympathetic. He could try and do the "that was David, I'm not him, I care". He doesn't. He just goes around with a face that has been slapped.
Corbyn isn't popular, but anytime I've seen him confronted by people in videos he does look like he is at least trying to engage in the issue.
He is being sympathetic. His replies are sympathetic.
Oh man.
Is this what we've become?
Of course, he could have used hs Prime Ministeral 4x4s to take supples nto Fshlake. That would have helped.
Oh dear. 🙁. The satirists are going to love that. What idiot convinced him it was a good stunt to pull?
I guess, the satirists organising getting the supplies into the flooded area.
You think the stunt was a good idea? You would have suggested it to him?
I think going to the areas at all, while well meaning by politicians, is rather stuntish from leaders. It doesnt help people as far as I can see, the PM isn't even the key person they need to be heard by or spoken to by. It just seems like opportunities for a PM or Opposition leader to trip up - arguments over getting their first, who gets moaned at etc .
I don't discount that those locally affected may get something out of being able to speak direct to the pm, say, but I'm not sure it's as useful for them as we act like.
"Please Don't Make Me Decide!" would be more honest...
Exactly so. The decision was taken - god knows why but it was - that the question of our relationship with the EU was one that should not be in the gift of politicians, not even PMs or wannabe PMs, but rather must be answered by the public in a Referendum. Jeremy's and Labour's position is perfectly in line that.
No it isn't. If that is the position you are taking then the question was already asked and answered.
There are those who disagree with us having been asked the question in the first place and claim it should be left to Parliament. I may disagree with them but there is a basic logic and reason to their claims.
But the Labour position is that they want the people to be asked the question in a referendum but then want the right to keep asking the same question again and again if they don't like the answer they are given.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
It just seems to happen so regularly, and he seems to not really know what to do? Like, sure, they may all be partisans, but also, be better at having comebacks?
I mean a comeback doesn't need to be antagonising. He could try and be sympathetic. He could try and do the "that was David, I'm not him, I care". He doesn't. He just goes around with a face that has been slapped.
Corbyn isn't popular, but anytime I've seen him confronted by people in videos he does look like he is at least trying to engage in the issue.
He is being sympathetic. His replies are sympathetic.
Oh man.
Is this what we've become?
Of course, he could have used hs Prime Ministeral 4x4s to take supples nto Fshlake. That would have helped.
Oh dear. 🙁. The satirists are going to love that. What idiot convinced him it was a good stunt to pull?
I guess, the satirists organising getting the supplies into the flooded area.
You think the stunt was a good idea? You would have suggested it to him?
If you're just a local Joe who does that, you are doing a useful thing. If you are the PM, with the full power of the office, and you do that it is a stunt. Like Trump handing out toilet paper to deal with a storm his government massively underfunded the recovery for.
Sometimes the stunt like response becomes the bigger more damaging story. 😕
It's telling that everyone seems to be discussing trivia and ignoring Labour's latest bout of hosing tens of billions at every problem, real or imagined. (Hardly a day goes by without another few tens of billion being thrown at the wall). I'm not sure, but I think that means Labour is losing even more credibility by this ceaseless barrage of improbable-sounding initiatives with eye-watering sums attached to them.
It's telling that everyone seems to be discussing trivia and ignoring Labour's latest bout of hosing tens of billions at every problem, real or imagined. (Hardly a day goes by without another few tens of billion being thrown at the wall). I'm not sure, but I think that means Labour is losing even more credibility by this ceaseless barrage of improbable-sounding initiatives with eye-watering sums attached to them.
Labour can be guaranteed to hose billions at a problem.
How about sorry. There’s not been enough cleaning of rivers. We cocked up, will learn from it. Sorry.
And you know that do you? That it was due to not cleaning rivers? You've done the research?
Or is the case flooding happens. It has always happened. Is happening and will at some point happen again in the future. Here maybe or anywhere prone to flooding. Like next to a bloody river.
What's he got to be sorry about? That it rained?
Presumably under Labour no one will ever get flooded.
Conservative policies, and cuts, have made flooding worse.
I suppose it was the same when Gloucestershire flooded in 2007 it was due to Tory cuts and policies as well? You know when water had to be shipped in when the electricity sub-stations flooded. That was the Tories fault as well?
Or was that Labours fault? Or was it the fault that, well, it rained. Alot?
I mean, floods have got worse, and their impacts on people have worsened. This is partly due to more rain (which is partly due to more extreme weather due to climate change). But it is also a policy decision issue. You may not have noticed, but that article was from 2015, when there were also really bad floods in York. 4 years later, still really bad floods. Lessons could have been learned, and yet have not been.
And I repeat the floods of 2007 were much worse than the floods happening now.
I know. I was there getting water from water tankers brought in and filling up bottles. For a good few weeks.
How about sorry. There’s not been enough cleaning of rivers. We cocked up, will learn from it. Sorry.
And you know that do you? That it was due to not cleaning rivers? You've done the research?
Or is the case flooding happens. It has always happened. Is happening and will at some point happen again in the future. Here maybe or anywhere prone to flooding. Like next to a bloody river.
What's he got to be sorry about? That it rained?
Presumably under Labour no one will ever get flooded.
Conservative policies, and cuts, have made flooding worse.
I suppose it was the same when Gloucestershire flooded in 2007 it was due to Tory cuts and policies as well? You know when water had to be shipped in when the electricity sub-stations flooded. That was the Tories fault as well?
Or was that Labours fault? Or was it the fault that, well, it rained. Alot?
I mean, floods have got worse, and their impacts on people have worsened. This is partly due to more rain (which is partly due to more extreme weather due to climate change). But it is also a policy decision issue. You may not have noticed, but that article was from 2015, when there were also really bad floods in York. 4 years later, still really bad floods. Lessons could have been learned, and yet have not been.
Unfortunately this is not the case. If you go and look at the records you will see that many of these areas suffered huge flooding issues in the past. And many of those areas that did not or where the severity of the floods have increased is because of the increased development on flood plains and the increase in flood defences to protect those new developments which then cause huge issues either further up or further down stream. The development on the flood plains around Colwick in Nottingham is a case in point.
Lessons do need to be leaned but the ones that are being learned are the wrong ones.
No it isn't. If that is the position you are taking then the question was already asked and answered.
There are those who disagree with us having been asked the question in the first place and claim it should be left to Parliament. I may disagree with them but there is a basic logic and reason to their claims.
But the Labour position is that they want the people to be asked the question in a referendum but then want the right to keep asking the same question again and again if they don't like the answer they are given.
Your 2nd para is me. As a Labour supporter I preferred the old policy of soft Brexit no Ref2. But I recognize that it was not tenable for this GE. Remainer support would have collapsed. At least this way they have a ghost of a chance of minority government. Disagree with your last para. Regardless of the Ref2 result there would be no Ref3.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
It just seems to happen so regularly, and he seems to not really know what to do? Like, sure, they may all be partisans, but also, be better at having comebacks?
Oh dear. 🙁. The satirists are going to love that. What idiot convinced him it was a good stunt to pull?
I guess, the satirists organising getting the supplies into the flooded area.
You think the stunt was a good idea? You would have suggested it to him?
I think going to the areas at all, while well meaning by politicians, is rather stuntish from leaders. It doesnt help people as far as I can see, the PM isn't even the key person they need to be heard by or spoken to by. It just seems like opportunities for a PM or Opposition leader to trip up - arguments over getting their first, who gets moaned at etc .
I don't discount that those locally affected may get something out of being able to speak direct to the pm, say, but I'm not sure it's as useful for them as we act like.
Where I would disagree is it’s also opportunity for underhand tactics from opposition. Remember what Blair done to Major over Dunblain? During mourning Blair and Major agreed to keep politics out of it as it could have happened under anyone’s watch. Then Blair made it a party political issue, exploiting tragedy for votes.
How about sorry. There’s not been enough cleaning of rivers. We cocked up, will learn from it. Sorry.
And you know that do you? That it was due to not cleaning rivers? You've done the research?
Or is the case flooding happens. It has always happened. Is happening and will at some point happen again in the future. Here maybe or anywhere prone to flooding. Like next to a bloody river.
What's he got to be sorry about? That it rained?
Presumably under Labour no one will ever get flooded.
Conservative policies, and cuts, have made flooding worse.
I suppose it was the same when Gloucestershire flooded in 2007 it was due to Tory cuts and policies as well? You know when water had to be shipped in when the electricity sub-stations flooded. That was the Tories fault as well?
Or was that Labours fault? Or was it the fault that, well, it rained. Alot?
I mean, floods have got worse, and their impacts on people have worsened. This is partly due to more rain (which is partly due to more extreme weather due to climate change). But it is also a policy decision issue. You may not have noticed, but that article was from 2015, when there were also really bad floods in York. 4 years later, still really bad floods. Lessons could have been learned, and yet have not been.
Unfortunately this is not the case. If you go and look at the records you will see that many of these areas suffered huge flooding issues in the past. And many of those areas that did not or where the severity of the floods have increased is because of the increased development on flood plains and the increase in flood defences to protect those new developments which then cause huge issues either further up or further down stream. The development on the flood plains around Colwick in Nottingham is a case in point.
Lessons do need to be leaned but the ones that are being learned are the wrong ones.
Development on flood plains and focus on flood defences are indeed part of the bad policy decisions.
How about sorry. There’s not been enough cleaning of rivers. We cocked up, will learn from it. Sorry.
And you know that do you? That it was due to not cleaning rivers? You've done the research?
Or is the case flooding happens. It has always happened. Is happening and will at some point happen again in the future. Here maybe or anywhere prone to flooding. Like next to a bloody river.
What's he got to be sorry about? That it rained?
Presumably under Labour no one will ever get flooded.
Conservative policies, and cuts, have made flooding worse.
I suppose it was the same when Gloucestershire flooded in 2007 it was due to Tory cuts and policies as well? You know when water had to be shipped in when the electricity sub-stations flooded. That was the Tories fault as well?
Or was that Labours fault? Or was it the fault that, well, it rained. Alot?
I mean, floods have got worse, and their impacts on people have worsened. This is partly due to more rain (which is partly due to more extreme weather due to climate change). But it is also a policy decision issue. You may not have noticed, but that article was from 2015, when there were also really bad floods in York. 4 years later, still really bad floods. Lessons could have been learned, and yet have not been.
Unfortunately this is not the case. If you go and look at the records you will see that many of these areas suffered huge flooding issues in the past. And many of those areas that did not or where the severity of the floods have increased is because of the increased development on flood plains and the increase in flood defences to protect those new developments which then cause huge issues either further up or further down stream. The development on the flood plains around Colwick in Nottingham is a case in point.
Lessons do need to be leaned but the ones that are being learned are the wrong ones.
Equally the damage has been done. Water has to go somewhere it was why previously flood plains were avoided.
How about sorry. There’s not been enough cleaning of rivers. We cocked up, will learn from it. Sorry.
And you know that do you? That it was due to not cleaning rivers? You've done the research?
Or is the case flooding happens. It has always happened. Is happening and will at some point happen again in the future. Here maybe or anywhere prone to flooding. Like next to a bloody river.
What's he got to be sorry about? That it rained?
Presumably under Labour no one will ever get flooded.
Conservative policies, and cuts, have made flooding worse.
I suppose it was the same when Gloucestershire flooded in 2007 it was due to Tory cuts and policies as well? You know when water had to be shipped in when the electricity sub-stations flooded. That was the Tories fault as well?
Or was that Labours fault? Or was it the fault that, well, it rained. Alot?
I mean, floods have got worse, and their impacts on people have worsened. This is partly due to more rain (which is partly due to more extreme weather due to climate change). But it is also a policy decision issue. You may not have noticed, but that article was from 2015, when there were also really bad floods in York. 4 years later, still really bad floods. Lessons could have been learned, and yet have not been.
Unfortunately this is not the case. If you go and look at the records you will see that many of these areas suffered huge flooding issues in the past. And many of those areas that did not or where the severity of the floods have increased is because of the increased development on flood plains and the increase in flood defences to protect those new developments which then cause huge issues either further up or further down stream. The development on the flood plains around Colwick in Nottingham is a case in point.
Lessons do need to be leaned but the ones that are being learned are the wrong ones.
Exactly.
Referring again to 2007 - my grandfather had lived in Gloucestershire all his life.
When they started to develop a lot of Tewkesbury in the late 80's early 90's he commented that going back to when he was a boy in the 1920's this certain field always used to flood. And that area in general. It was on a flood plain.
That was when they were merrily building a Safeway on it. And houses.
I cant understand Johnsons actions here with regards to the flooding.
It was obviously going to become an electoral issue, scale yet to be seen. But for the life of me I cant understand why he didn't throw himself at it early door as damage limitation. Now becoming a far bigger issue than should have been.
Yes, these floods could quite easily cost him the majority he needs to implement Brexit. They could be his Dementia Tax.
Let's see what the polls do over the next week or so.
I cant understand Johnsons actions here with regards to the flooding.
It was obviously going to become an electoral issue, scale yet to be seen. But for the life of me I cant understand why he didn't throw himself at it early door as damage limitation. Now becoming a far bigger issue than should have been.
Yes, these floods could quite easily cost him the majority he needs to implement Brexit. They could be his Dementia Tax.
Let's see what the polls do over the next week or so.
I cant understand Johnsons actions here with regards to the flooding.
It was obviously going to become an electoral issue, scale yet to be seen. But for the life of me I cant understand why he didn't throw himself at it early door as damage limitation. Now becoming a far bigger issue than should have been.
I cant understand Johnsons actions here with regards to the flooding.
It was obviously going to become an electoral issue, scale yet to be seen. But for the life of me I cant understand why he didn't throw himself at it early door as damage limitation. Now becoming a far bigger issue than should have been.
Yes, these floods could quite easily cost him the majority he needs to implement Brexit. They could be his Dementia Tax.
Let's see what the polls do over the next week or so.
You really think that?
If we see the opposition persist on it in the next few weeks we'll know they believe it could at least
There are things we could do to make flooding less bad - not build on flood plains, plant trees in the hills, consider flood defences in terms of the whole watershed, rather than with piecemeal schemes that move the flooding to another place, design more resilient houses and infrastructure that can cope with periodic flooding.
We're doing none of those things, and none of the main parties are claiming to be about to start doing so.
The more extreme rainfall from climate change is just another layer on top of all the others.
Because that romantic image The Guardian has used is so the reality of traveller caravans in 2019.....
There's a well established* traveller camp near my parents in-law's village. Many of their caravans do indeed look quite like that (not as decorative, but horse drawn). Not that it's necessarily relevant - do you think type of caravan predicts type of person?
*As it's well established, they perhaps don't do much travelling! I don't know whether there's much turnover within the camp, but it's been there twenty years or more. My brother in law, a site manager for a construction company has had plenty of run-ins with unpleasant travellers trespassing on sites, so I don't have a wholly romantic view of travellers. Like anyone, there are good and bad.
I suppose it was the same when Gloucestershire flooded in 2007 it was due to Tory cuts and policies as well? You know when water had to be shipped in when the electricity sub-stations flooded. That was the Tories fault as well?
Or was that Labours fault? Or was it the fault that, well, it rained. Alot?
I mean, floods have got worse, and their impacts on people have worsened. This is partly due to more rain (which is partly due to more extreme weather due to climate change). But it is also a policy decision issue. You may not have noticed, but that article was from 2015, when there were also really bad floods in York. 4 years later, still really bad floods. Lessons could have been learned, and yet have not been.
Unfortunately this is not the case. If you go and look at the records you will see that many of these areas suffered huge flooding issues in the past. And many of those areas that did not or where the severity of the floods have increased is because of the increased development on flood plains and the increase in flood defences to protect those new developments which then cause huge issues either further up or further down stream. The development on the flood plains around Colwick in Nottingham is a case in point.
Lessons do need to be leaned but the ones that are being learned are the wrong ones.
Exactly.
Referring again to 2007 - my grandfather had lived in Gloucestershire all his life.
When they started to develop a lot of Tewkesbury in the late 80's early 90's he commented that going back to when he was a boy in the 1920's this certain field always used to flood. And that area in general. It was on a flood plain.
That was when they were merrily building a Safeway on it. And houses.
Guess what flooded?
Twekesbury was flooded when I was there as a baby in 1961/2. The Army had DUKWs out to help. It's always flooded. Probably always will. But if there is more to be damaged more will get damaged.
Of course, illegal traveller sites don't impact hand-wringers in Islington. They do however impact folk in constituencies such as Bishop Auckland.
Do there? I don't remember ever hearing about long term illegal sites in Bishop Auckland or the surrounding area. I lot of villages (including some in the Dales) do suffer for a week or so around Appleby but I don't think anything could be done to stop that
I cant understand Johnsons actions here with regards to the flooding.
It was obviously going to become an electoral issue, scale yet to be seen. But for the life of me I cant understand why he didn't throw himself at it early door as damage limitation. Now becoming a far bigger issue than should have been.
Yes, these floods could quite easily cost him the majority he needs to implement Brexit. They could be his Dementia Tax.
Let's see what the polls do over the next week or so.
You really think that?
If we see the opposition persist on it in the next few weeks we'll know they believe it could at least
Guardian and BBC seem to have found bigger fish the fry. Might jump up again later in the week.
As regards Johnson's visit to Stainforth, he would have been equally as unwelcome last week before the floods, or last month before the election. It's Stainforth. This is not the natural habitat of the tory.
It's telling that everyone seems to be discussing trivia and ignoring Labour's latest bout of hosing tens of billions at every problem, real or imagined. (Hardly a day goes by without another few tens of billion being thrown at the wall). I'm not sure, but I think that means Labour is losing even more credibility by this ceaseless barrage of improbable-sounding initiatives with eye-watering sums attached to them.
I forget you posted it (maybe you) but I thought the question of "priority" was an interesting one.
Labour are spending so much on everything, they aren't prioritizing anything
Well, I reckon we've got 4 weeks of pure hysteria on this website where every single thing said and done by politicians of all sides will be amplified far beyond their useful purpose. As for the polling, well, same rules apply as all other elections. We only pick the ones that support our personal agenda. But my observation is almost as if the Tories are waiting for something to go disastrously wrong, and the Labour supporters are clinging on to that interminable 2017 comparison graph.
It's all very odd. Labour are certainly far less nervous when they ever get a lead, because they shout their lungs out when it happens. But the Tories go 'yikes, Labour have gained 1%', which is margin of error.
Think about it. 10% average lead just 4 weeks from an election, most unpopular opposition leader in history, Tories ahead in all of the key indicators to winning a general election.....so why oh why are us Tories so darned nervous? Labour never would be if the roles were reversed.
There are things we could do to make flooding less bad - not build on flood plains, plant trees in the hills, consider flood defences in terms of the whole watershed, rather than with piecemeal schemes that move the flooding to another place, design more resilient houses and infrastructure that can cope with periodic flooding.
We're doing none of those things, and none of the main parties are claiming to be about to start doing so.
The more extreme rainfall from climate change is just another layer on top of all the others.
Actually we are doing those things.
There are plenty of Government schemes in action supporting flood prevention through tree planting. They are also funding schemes to hold up water flow with artificial pools. If you look at the planning departments of water companies like Anglian all of their new development plans include flow stalling schemes in areas of outflow flood risk. The fact it is not headline news does not mean it is not happening.
But the biggest issue remains unsuitable development in flood risk areas which either suffer flooding themselves or push the flooding up and downstream.
Not really. But things sometimes get traction and this could be one. The main thing for the Cons is not to make things worse. For example, send Rees Mogg up there to dish out some of his wit & wisdom on the matter of water ingress -
"If you and I, Nick, were told it was going to rain heavily, then whatever the authorities might tell us, we would pull up the drawbridge and make absolutely sure the moat was in tip top condition. It's just common sense."
"Mr Musk also cited risks surrounding the UK's exit from the EU for his decision, according to AutoExpress. "Brexit [uncertainty] made it too risky to put a Gigafactory in the UK," he told the trade magazine."
It's telling that everyone seems to be discussing trivia and ignoring Labour's latest bout of hosing tens of billions at every problem, real or imagined. (Hardly a day goes by without another few tens of billion being thrown at the wall). I'm not sure, but I think that means Labour is losing even more credibility by this ceaseless barrage of improbable-sounding initiatives with eye-watering sums attached to them.
I forget you posted it (maybe you) but I thought the question of "priority" was an interesting one.
Labour are spending so much on everything, they aren't prioritizing anything
Might be part of the strategy? Embed impression labour are opening the funding taps everywhere, then really drill down on the key parts later, safe that people know even if it is not mentioned labour are increasing it?
Well, I reckon we've got 4 weeks of pure hysteria on this website where every single thing said and done by politicians of all sides will be amplified far beyond their useful purpose. As for the polling, well, same rules apply as all other elections. We only pick the ones that support our personal agenda. But my observation is almost as if the Tories are waiting for something to go disastrously wrong, and the Labour supporters are clinging on to that interminable 2017 comparison graph.
It's all very odd. Labour are certainly far less nervous when they ever get a lead, because they shout their lungs out when it happens. But the Tories go 'yikes, Labour have gained 1%', which is margin of error.
Think about it. 10% average lead just 4 weeks from an election, most unpopular opposition leader in history, Tories ahead in all of the key indicators to winning a general election.....so why oh why are us Tories so darned nervous? Labour never would be if the roles were reversed.
Because we know how bad the Tories are at fighting election campaigns. They still are, but fortunately, Labour seem just as inept this time around.
Well, I reckon we've got 4 weeks of pure hysteria on this website where every single thing said and done by politicians of all sides will be amplified far beyond their useful purpose. As for the polling, well, same rules apply as all other elections. We only pick the ones that support our personal agenda. But my observation is almost as if the Tories are waiting for something to go disastrously wrong, and the Labour supporters are clinging on to that interminable 2017 comparison graph.
It's all very odd. Labour are certainly far less nervous when they ever get a lead, because they shout their lungs out when it happens. But the Tories go 'yikes, Labour have gained 1%', which is margin of error.
Think about it. 10% average lead just 4 weeks from an election, most unpopular opposition leader in history, Tories ahead in all of the key indicators to winning a general election.....so why oh why are us Tories so darned nervous? Labour never would be if the roles were reversed.
It's telling that everyone seems to be discussing trivia and ignoring Labour's latest bout of hosing tens of billions at every problem, real or imagined. (Hardly a day goes by without another few tens of billion being thrown at the wall). I'm not sure, but I think that means Labour is losing even more credibility by this ceaseless barrage of improbable-sounding initiatives with eye-watering sums attached to them.
I think so. The first time you promise to spend ten billion pounds on something it sounds really impressive, but the sixth and seventh time and it becomes just noise.
No-one has any true feel of what the practical difference is between hundreds of millions of tens of billions - the numbers are too large. They've devalued their own campaigning, perhaps foreshadowing what would happen to the currency if they win a majority to implement the policies.
Well, I reckon we've got 4 weeks of pure hysteria on this website where every single thing said and done by politicians of all sides will be amplified far beyond their useful purpose. As for the polling, well, same rules apply as all other elections. We only pick the ones that support our personal agenda. But my observation is almost as if the Tories are waiting for something to go disastrously wrong, and the Labour supporters are clinging on to that interminable 2017 comparison graph.
It's all very odd. Labour are certainly far less nervous when they ever get a lead, because they shout their lungs out when it happens. But the Tories go 'yikes, Labour have gained 1%', which is margin of error.
Think about it. 10% average lead just 4 weeks from an election, most unpopular opposition leader in history, Tories ahead in all of the key indicators to winning a general election.....so why oh why are us Tories so darned nervous? Labour never would be if the roles were reversed.
Should remove the risk to postal votes although I can't help feeling that the Courts remain far too trigger happy in respect of these ballots. I mean, in this case the vote in favour of the strike was 97%. If there were some minor procedural irregularities is anyone seriously suggesting that it impacted on the result to any meaningful extent?
I am as wet a Tory as you will find but in my view the right to strike is pretty basic and courts should not be taking it away in this way.
There are things we could do to make flooding less bad - not build on flood plains, plant trees in the hills, consider flood defences in terms of the whole watershed, rather than with piecemeal schemes that move the flooding to another place, design more resilient houses and infrastructure that can cope with periodic flooding.
We're doing none of those things, and none of the main parties are claiming to be about to start doing so.
The more extreme rainfall from climate change is just another layer on top of all the others.
Actually we are doing those things.
There are plenty of Government schemes in action supporting flood prevention through tree planting. They are also funding schemes to hold up water flow with artificial pools. If you look at the planning departments of water companies like Anglian all of their new development plans include flow stalling schemes in areas of outflow flood risk. The fact it is not headline news does not mean it is not happening.
But the biggest issue remains unsuitable development in flood risk areas which either suffer flooding themselves or push the flooding up and downstream.
Well that's good. It's a shame that's absent from the news.
Should remove the risk to postal votes although I can't help feeling that the Courts remain far too trigger happy in respect of these ballots. I mean, in this case the vote in favour of the strike was 97%. If there were some minor procedural irregularities is anyone seriously suggesting that it impacted on the result to any meaningful extent?
I am as wet a Tory as you will find but in my view the right to strike is pretty basic and courts should not be taking it away in this way.
*ducks*
Sounds like there was the potential for voter intimidation, at least going by the reports in that article.
I cant understand Johnsons actions here with regards to the flooding.
It was obviously going to become an electoral issue, scale yet to be seen. But for the life of me I cant understand why he didn't throw himself at it early door as damage limitation. Now becoming a far bigger issue than should have been.
Yes, these floods could quite easily cost him the majority he needs to implement Brexit. They could be his Dementia Tax.
Let's see what the polls do over the next week or so.
It's telling that everyone seems to be discussing trivia and ignoring Labour's latest bout of hosing tens of billions at every problem, real or imagined. (Hardly a day goes by without another few tens of billion being thrown at the wall). I'm not sure, but I think that means Labour is losing even more credibility by this ceaseless barrage of improbable-sounding initiatives with eye-watering sums attached to them.
I think so. The first time you promise to spend ten billion pounds on something it sounds really impressive, but the sixth and seventh time and it becomes just noise.
No-one has any true feel of what the practical difference is between hundreds of millions of tens of billions - the numbers are too large. They've devalued their own campaigning, perhaps foreshadowing what would happen to the currency if they win a majority to implement the policies.
In fairness we will probably all have a good laugh when we get the fully costed Manifesto. I'm expecting Labour's to be a bit of joke as well.
There are things we could do to make flooding less bad - not build on flood plains, plant trees in the hills, consider flood defences in terms of the whole watershed, rather than with piecemeal schemes that move the flooding to another place, design more resilient houses and infrastructure that can cope with periodic flooding.
We're doing none of those things, and none of the main parties are claiming to be about to start doing so.
The more extreme rainfall from climate change is just another layer on top of all the others.
Actually we are doing those things.
There are plenty of Government schemes in action supporting flood prevention through tree planting. They are also funding schemes to hold up water flow with artificial pools. If you look at the planning departments of water companies like Anglian all of their new development plans include flow stalling schemes in areas of outflow flood risk. The fact it is not headline news does not mean it is not happening.
But the biggest issue remains unsuitable development in flood risk areas which either suffer flooding themselves or push the flooding up and downstream.
Well that's good. It's a shame that's absent from the news.
"Authorities do something sensible" is never going to be headline (or even page 12) news. Indeed its just as likely to be local authorities or civil servants coming up with and enacting these ideas as central government. And they get even less headlines than the Government.
Should remove the risk to postal votes although I can't help feeling that the Courts remain far too trigger happy in respect of these ballots. I mean, in this case the vote in favour of the strike was 97%. If there were some minor procedural irregularities is anyone seriously suggesting that it impacted on the result to any meaningful extent?
I am as wet a Tory as you will find but in my view the right to strike is pretty basic and courts should not be taking it away in this way.
*ducks*
Sounds like there was the potential for voter intimidation, at least going by the reports in that article.
Should remove the risk to postal votes although I can't help feeling that the Courts remain far too trigger happy in respect of these ballots. I mean, in this case the vote in favour of the strike was 97%. If there were some minor procedural irregularities is anyone seriously suggesting that it impacted on the result to any meaningful extent?
I am as wet a Tory as you will find but in my view the right to strike is pretty basic and courts should not be taking it away in this way.
*ducks*
I heard the union rep admit that the ballot papers were left in the postie's own letter boxes at work and they collected them and had a meeting to decide the individual votes. In other words the posties voted together and were influenced by their work colleagues rather than voting in the privacy of their home
If this was affirmed in court I would expect to be ruled as an irregular practice, but I am not a lawyer to be fair
"Mr Musk also cited risks surrounding the UK's exit from the EU for his decision, according to AutoExpress. "Brexit [uncertainty] made it too risky to put a Gigafactory in the UK," he told the trade magazine."
See what you have lost us, Remainers, with all your dicking around.....
Anyone seriously worried about a Labour Govt damaging their wealth - surely this is the time to take out serious insurance by buying Lab on spread markets or backing Lab at very long odds.
I did just that about 6 weeks ago and the markets have moved massively against me but I don't care - in fact I'm delighted - I regard it as a straight forward financial investment.
There are things we could do to make flooding less bad - not build on flood plains, plant trees in the hills, consider flood defences in terms of the whole watershed, rather than with piecemeal schemes that move the flooding to another place, design more resilient houses and infrastructure that can cope with periodic flooding.
We're doing none of those things, and none of the main parties are claiming to be about to start doing so.
The more extreme rainfall from climate change is just another layer on top of all the others.
Actually we are doing those things.
There are plenty of Government schemes in action supporting flood prevention through tree planting. They are also funding schemes to hold up water flow with artificial pools. If you look at the planning departments of water companies like Anglian all of their new development plans include flow stalling schemes in areas of outflow flood risk. The fact it is not headline news does not mean it is not happening.
But the biggest issue remains unsuitable development in flood risk areas which either suffer flooding themselves or push the flooding up and downstream.
Richard, another big contributor to flooding in the US is the acreage of roofing and tarmac reducing the acreage of open soils for absorbing the rain. Is that a factor in the UK too? Overflow ponds and defined channels for flood waters are some of the solutions here.
It's telling that everyone seems to be discussing trivia and ignoring Labour's latest bout of hosing tens of billions at every problem, real or imagined. (Hardly a day goes by without another few tens of billion being thrown at the wall). I'm not sure, but I think that means Labour is losing even more credibility by this ceaseless barrage of improbable-sounding initiatives with eye-watering sums attached to them.
The manifesto will be out soon. Let's see what it says.
Should remove the risk to postal votes although I can't help feeling that the Courts remain far too trigger happy in respect of these ballots. I mean, in this case the vote in favour of the strike was 97%. If there were some minor procedural irregularities is anyone seriously suggesting that it impacted on the result to any meaningful extent?
I am as wet a Tory as you will find but in my view the right to strike is pretty basic and courts should not be taking it away in this way.
*ducks*
I heard the union rep admit that the ballot papers were left in the postie's own letter boxes at work and they collected them and had a meeting to decide the individual votes. In other words the posties voted together and were influenced by their work colleagues rather than voting in the privacy of their home
If this was affirmed in court I would expect to be ruled as an irregular practice, but I am not a lawyer to be fair
Posties can't deliver a letter shock. But its still ridiculous.
If he really insists on not extending - which I doubt - I would expect some sort of bare bones deal rather than nothing. It will be interesting to see if Betfair frame a "No Deal in 2020" market. I suspect they won't because "No Deal" will be too difficult to define. What there should be, however, is an "Extend Transition?" market. I will be backing Yes on that if the price is anything better than about 1.5.
The prize is a majority that enables exit through the WA available.
To leavers that is Brexit done because remainers will have failed to overturn the referendum result.
Remainers might get excited about Boris extending next year (no doubt he will) but leavers will just shrug their shoulders.
Politically it makes no sense not to extend regardless of ERG ranting.
We left the EU but are still paying £10bn a year to it is going to be a hard thing for Johnson to justify
And I suspect extending will require us to continue paying the £1bn a month or so we currently pay it.
Re the 10bn, doesn't it depend on what it's for?
If it's a bunch of EU administered programs that we've opted in to, like Gallileo and Erasmus and the ESA and EURATOM and others, is it really that much of a problem?
When was selling participation in EU structures based on a cost/benefit analysis ever effective?
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
It just seems to happen so regularly, and he seems to not really know what to do? Like, sure, they may all be partisans, but also, be better at having comebacks?
Again I disagree with you. This isn’t definition of a bad day. Those bits of twitter mean nothing in bigger picture. What would move votes is media in local area spending weeks pinning blame on rivers left in mess and saying government created the disaster.
He's heading into one of the safest Labour places historically just after a major disaster. Of course people are going to be pissed off with a Tory PM arriving in such circumstances. But this doesn't mean it's the wrong thing to do - it's a far better look than May would have had avoiding real people for sure.
Anyone seriously worried about a Labour Govt damaging their wealth - surely this is the time to take out serious insurance by buying Lab on spread markets or backing Lab at very long odds.
I did just that about 6 weeks ago and the markets have moved massively against me but I don't care - in fact I'm delighted - I regard it as a straight forward financial investment.
What happens if you lose your bet but then a Conservative government seriously damages your wealth?
It's telling that everyone seems to be discussing trivia and ignoring Labour's latest bout of hosing tens of billions at every problem, real or imagined. (Hardly a day goes by without another few tens of billion being thrown at the wall). I'm not sure, but I think that means Labour is losing even more credibility by this ceaseless barrage of improbable-sounding initiatives with eye-watering sums attached to them.
I think so. The first time you promise to spend ten billion pounds on something it sounds really impressive, but the sixth and seventh time and it becomes just noise.
No-one has any true feel of what the practical difference is between hundreds of millions of tens of billions - the numbers are too large. They've devalued their own campaigning, perhaps foreshadowing what would happen to the currency if they win a majority to implement the policies.
In fairness we will probably all have a good laugh when we get the fully costed Manifesto. I'm expecting Labour's to be a bit of joke as well.
I have stopped listening to all the bribes from all the parties.
They are insane and insult my intelligence
I maintain Boris is trusted far more than Corbyn on Brexit and the economy and I expect those factors will come into play, but also Corbyn is just toxic in so many areas I really think the electorate are more or less determined to see he is kept away from Downing Street under any circumstances
Anyone seriously worried about a Labour Govt damaging their wealth - surely this is the time to take out serious insurance by buying Lab on spread markets or backing Lab at very long odds.
I did just that about 6 weeks ago and the markets have moved massively against me but I don't care - in fact I'm delighted - I regard it as a straight forward financial investment.
Lol I like this, my reasoning exactly. I've already chucked £100 on betfair for Labour majority at 32 and NOM at 2.70. I would happily lose £200 (and a lot more actually) if it stops Corbyn PM.
Well, I reckon we've got 4 weeks of pure hysteria on this website where every single thing said and done by politicians of all sides will be amplified far beyond their useful purpose. As for the polling, well, same rules apply as all other elections. We only pick the ones that support our personal agenda. But my observation is almost as if the Tories are waiting for something to go disastrously wrong, and the Labour supporters are clinging on to that interminable 2017 comparison graph.
It's all very odd. Labour are certainly far less nervous when they ever get a lead, because they shout their lungs out when it happens. But the Tories go 'yikes, Labour have gained 1%', which is margin of error.
Think about it. 10% average lead just 4 weeks from an election, most unpopular opposition leader in history, Tories ahead in all of the key indicators to winning a general election.....so why oh why are us Tories so darned nervous? Labour never would be if the roles were reversed.
Comments
If it's a bunch of EU administered programs that we've opted in to, like Gallileo and Erasmus and the ESA and EURATOM and others, is it really that much of a problem?
Oh, wait. He did.....
https://order-order.com/2019/11/13/boris-uses-pm-4x4-take-supplies-flooded-town/
https://twitter.com/nedsimons/status/1194631054897733635
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/13/priti-patel-demonisation-gypsies-prejudice-bigotry
Or is the case flooding happens. It has always happened. Is happening and will at some point happen again in the future. Here maybe or anywhere prone to flooding. Like next to a bloody river.
What's he got to be sorry about? That it rained?
Presumably under Labour no one will ever get flooded.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/dec/29/deluge-farmers-flood-grouse-moor-drain-land
Anyway no point is us arguing, the local media with get to bottom of it and inform voters before voting day.
I suppose it was the same when Gloucestershire flooded in 2007 it was due to Tory cuts and policies as well? You know when water had to be shipped in when the electricity sub-stations flooded. That was the Tories fault as well?
Or was that Labours fault? Or was it the fault that, well, it rained. Alot?
http://www.benefice-of-fishlake-sykehouse-kirkbramwith-fenwick-moss.co.uk/fishlake-church-history.php
Also more BXP than UKIP to squeeze, but still less than LD.
But who knows? Con unpopular last minute policies seem unlikely. Some Johnson skeleton though, other than those already known - maybe
It was obviously going to become an electoral issue, scale yet to be seen. But for the life of me I cant understand why he didn't throw himself at it early door as damage limitation. Now becoming a far bigger issue than should have been.
That requires changes to how we manage land.
He should just have sat back and said "Nah, fuck 'em...."?
I know. I was there getting water from water tankers brought in and filling up bottles. For a good few weeks.
I don't discount that those locally affected may get something out of being able to speak direct to the pm, say, but I'm not sure it's as useful for them as we act like.
There are those who disagree with us having been asked the question in the first place and claim it should be left to Parliament. I may disagree with them but there is a basic logic and reason to their claims.
But the Labour position is that they want the people to be asked the question in a referendum but then want the right to keep asking the same question again and again if they don't like the answer they are given.
right.
This time they've decided to hose TRILLONS.
Can't fault their ambition.
Just their ability to fund TRILLIONS.
Lessons do need to be leaned but the ones that are being learned are the wrong ones.
Referring again to 2007 - my grandfather had lived in Gloucestershire all his life.
When they started to develop a lot of Tewkesbury in the late 80's early 90's he commented that going back to when he was a boy in the 1920's this certain field always used to flood. And that area in general. It was on a flood plain.
That was when they were merrily building a Safeway on it. And houses.
Guess what flooded?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
Let's see what the polls do over the next week or so.
We're doing none of those things, and none of the main parties are claiming to be about to start doing so.
The more extreme rainfall from climate change is just another layer on top of all the others.
*As it's well established, they perhaps don't do much travelling! I don't know whether there's much turnover within the camp, but it's been there twenty years or more. My brother in law, a site manager for a construction company has had plenty of run-ins with unpleasant travellers trespassing on sites, so I don't have a wholly romantic view of travellers. Like anyone, there are good and bad.
As regards Johnson's visit to Stainforth, he would have been equally as unwelcome last week before the floods, or last month before the election. It's Stainforth. This is not the natural habitat of the tory.
Labour are spending so much on everything, they aren't prioritizing anything
It's all very odd. Labour are certainly far less nervous when they ever get a lead, because they shout their lungs out when it happens. But the Tories go 'yikes, Labour have gained 1%', which is margin of error.
Think about it. 10% average lead just 4 weeks from an election, most unpopular opposition leader in history, Tories ahead in all of the key indicators to winning a general election.....so why oh why are us Tories so darned nervous? Labour never would be if the roles were reversed.
There are plenty of Government schemes in action supporting flood prevention through tree planting. They are also funding schemes to hold up water flow with artificial pools. If you look at the planning departments of water companies like Anglian all of their new development plans include flow stalling schemes in areas of outflow flood risk. The fact it is not headline news does not mean it is not happening.
But the biggest issue remains unsuitable development in flood risk areas which either suffer flooding themselves or push the flooding up and downstream.
"If you and I, Nick, were told it was going to rain heavily, then whatever the authorities might tell us, we would pull up the drawbridge and make absolutely sure the moat was in tip top condition. It's just common sense."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50400068
"Mr Musk also cited risks surrounding the UK's exit from the EU for his decision, according to AutoExpress.
"Brexit [uncertainty] made it too risky to put a Gigafactory in the UK," he told the trade magazine."
No-one has any true feel of what the practical difference is between hundreds of millions of tens of billions - the numbers are too large. They've devalued their own campaigning, perhaps foreshadowing what would happen to the currency if they win a majority to implement the policies.
Should remove the risk to postal votes although I can't help feeling that the Courts remain far too trigger happy in respect of these ballots. I mean, in this case the vote in favour of the strike was 97%. If there were some minor procedural irregularities is anyone seriously suggesting that it impacted on the result to any meaningful extent?
I am as wet a Tory as you will find but in my view the right to strike is pretty basic and courts should not be taking it away in this way.
*ducks*
If this was affirmed in court I would expect to be ruled as an irregular practice, but I am not a lawyer to be fair
I did just that about 6 weeks ago and the markets have moved massively against me but I don't care - in fact I'm delighted - I regard it as a straight forward financial investment.
I'm going to stick to my guns and say working Tory majority, 340-350 seats (subject to change if the polling goes tits up!)
They are insane and insult my intelligence
I maintain Boris is trusted far more than Corbyn on Brexit and the economy and I expect those factors will come into play, but also Corbyn is just toxic in so many areas I really think the electorate are more or less determined to see he is kept away from Downing Street under any circumstances