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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now five of the top 6 in the Democratic nomination betting are

SystemSystem Posts: 12,170
edited November 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now five of the top 6 in the Democratic nomination betting are septuagenarians – the other’s 37

We have not looked at the WH2020 nomination recently but the latest development is that Wall Street multi-billionaire, Michael Bloomberg (77), has started registering to ensure that he’s on the primary ballots in some states. On top of this there’s a lot of betting interest in Hillary Clinton (72) although she has not said that she is running.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    First like Mayor Pete.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Hillary and Bloomberg should be under 0.5% between them, ridiculous for them to be at 9%.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    edmundintokyo said:

    Hillary and Bloomberg should be under 0.5% between them, ridiculous for them to be at 9%.

    I noticed Robert made reference to filing deadlines for certain states. Is it possible that, at a brokered convention, a compromise candidate could be found who wasn't in the running at all?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    https://twitter.com/BBCChrisD/status/1194536184820748288?s=19
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Jo Swinson, throwing away golden opportunities since 2019
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Is the 770/1 a misprint?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Making the UK less European and more like the US is not going to end well.
    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1194584527836008448
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Is the 770/1 a misprint?

    No. I just saw it there and took it
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Is the 770/1 a misprint?

    Don't think so, this market is incredibly dumb, at least at the longshots end.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Stereotomy said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCChrisD/status/1194536184820748288?s=19

    If Lib Dems do start pulling out then it will hit Swinson's argument for needing a seat in the big debate. She will have to be very careful one or two does not become an avalanche because that is really going to hit the Lib Dem VI across the country. Tim Walker was never a Lib Dem, merely a slightly bonkers FBPE type, the worry is the Lib Dems may have adopted too many of these people at the expense of those who have the party interest at heart.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Stereotomy said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCChrisD/status/1194536184820748288?s=19

    Who?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited November 2019
    tlg86 said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Hillary and Bloomberg should be under 0.5% between them, ridiculous for them to be at 9%.

    I noticed Robert made reference to filing deadlines for certain states. Is it possible that, at a brokered convention, a compromise candidate could be found who wasn't in the running at all?
    Technically yes. But if it ends up with a brokered convention it's a bunch of leftists against a bunch of people who really want to beat Trump, and the one thing they'll all agree on is that they don't want to nominate Hillary Clinton.

    If they want a loser from a previous cycle who's now a bit too old, a better candidate is Al Gore.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Go back to your constituencies and prepare to stand aside
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    tlg86 said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Hillary and Bloomberg should be under 0.5% between them, ridiculous for them to be at 9%.

    I noticed Robert made reference to filing deadlines for certain states. Is it possible that, at a brokered convention, a compromise candidate could be found who wasn't in the running at all?
    I think the KLOB at 770/1 is a better bet than that.
    Speaking of whom, she’ll be silent in the Senate during the weeks of the impeachment trial, along with Harris, Warren, Sanders et al. (During the trial, Senators do not get to speak.)

    Whether this will play to Biden and Buttigieg’s advantage is for now unknowable.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    MikeSmithson said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Is the 770/1 a misprint?

    No. I just saw it there and took it

    Pretty sprightly for a septuagenarian... :smile:
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    edited November 2019
    Re: Kantar, isn't changing your polling methodology in the _middle_ of an election campaign deeply suspect? Although it still shows a 10-point Tory lead, the 3-point cuts just feeds into the narrative of Labour closing the gap and therefore affects the perception of the election campaign itself?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    Brom said:

    Stereotomy said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCChrisD/status/1194536184820748288?s=19

    If Lib Dems do start pulling out then it will hit Swinson's argument for needing a seat in the big debate. She will have to be very careful one or two does not become an avalanche because that is really going to hit the Lib Dem VI across the country. Tim Walker was never a Lib Dem, merely a slightly bonkers FBPE type, the worry is the Lib Dems may have adopted too many of these people at the expense of those who have the party interest at heart.
    It's not the job of the Lib Dems to prop up the Labour party. The candidates in Canterbury and High Peak a prize pair of twits.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Is the 770/1 a misprint?

    I think OGH means Amy is still running, not that the price is still there.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    If the Lib Dems stand aside for labour, at all...then whats the point of them as a party?

    Democracy should be about choice. Not 'vote this one way or fuck off' binary simplistics.

    The difference between that and the Brexit party is that the Brexit party was never a functioning party in the first place/
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,570
    Beibheirli_C said:

    Stereotomy said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCChrisD/status/1194536184820748288?s=19

    Who?
    Lib Dem PPC for High Peak
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    dyedwoolie said:

    Jo Swinson, throwing away golden opportunities since 2019

    Which would be what, precisely ?
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Also living up to my name, but it does seem like 2017 is repeating itself in all too horrific a way, leading to a repeat of the phenomenon that led to a hung Parliament then: an election campaign makes Labour Leavers forget about Brexit and return to their home party, whereas in the same campaign Tory Remainers don't forget about Brexit and don't return home...

    ARRGHRGRHRGRHGHRH!
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683
    Brendan is making some tortuous arguments to justify Nigel's abandonment of 'real' Brexit.

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/11/11/the-brexit-party-steps-aside/

    The gist seems to be: fill parliament with hard-Brexit purists and then bump off Boris later.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I expect we'll see the rise (or renaissance) of at least one more current long shot before the whole hoo-ha is played out. Apart from anything else, journalists aren't going to waste the opportunity for headlines about Advent.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191
    I see there's a new Georgia poll out showing Trump behind all the potential Dem candidates. It's interesting because the assumption was the easiest path to Dems winning the Electoral College would be flipping Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvia (plus keeping everything they won in 2016). But in some recent polls Trump is doing OK in those states, he could easily hold on to one (or more) leaving the Dems needing somewhere else. Maybe Georgia will be easier than Florida in 2020.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Nigelb said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Jo Swinson, throwing away golden opportunities since 2019

    Which would be what, precisely ?
    To replace the disgraced racists as the main opposition. Instead shes taking them back down the hill to irrelevance and suddenly her new stars look likely to become ex stars soon. Shes just not very good.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    Stereotomy said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCChrisD/status/1194536184820748288?s=19

    If Lib Dems do start pulling out then it will hit Swinson's argument for needing a seat in the big debate. She will have to be very careful one or two does not become an avalanche because that is really going to hit the Lib Dem VI across the country. Tim Walker was never a Lib Dem, merely a slightly bonkers FBPE type, the worry is the Lib Dems may have adopted too many of these people at the expense of those who have the party interest at heart.
    It's not the job of the Lib Dems to prop up the Labour party. The candidates in Canterbury and High Peak a prize pair of twits.
    This is a downside of them marketing themselves entirely as the Stop Brexit Party. Some of their candidates and activists actually believe it!
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    blueblue said:

    Also living up to my name, but it does seem like 2017 is repeating itself in all too horrific a way, leading to a repeat of the phenomenon that led to a hung Parliament then: an election campaign makes Labour Leavers forget about Brexit and return to their home party, whereas in the same campaign Tory Remainers don't forget about Brexit and don't return home...

    ARRGHRGRHRGRHGHRH!

    Which is because the right is obsessed about Brexit, the left really couldn't care-a-less.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    Stereotomy said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCChrisD/status/1194536184820748288?s=19

    If Lib Dems do start pulling out then it will hit Swinson's argument for needing a seat in the big debate. She will have to be very careful one or two does not become an avalanche because that is really going to hit the Lib Dem VI across the country. Tim Walker was never a Lib Dem, merely a slightly bonkers FBPE type, the worry is the Lib Dems may have adopted too many of these people at the expense of those who have the party interest at heart.
    It's not the job of the Lib Dems to prop up the Labour party. The candidates in Canterbury and High Peak a prize pair of twits.
    How did they get tbr selection?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    Slackbladder said:

    If the Lib Dems stand aside for labour, at all...then whats the point of them as a party?

    Particularly when they are forcefully making the case that Corbyn is unfit to be PM.

  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    blueblue said:

    Also living up to my name, but it does seem like 2017 is repeating itself in all too horrific a way, leading to a repeat of the phenomenon that led to a hung Parliament then: an election campaign makes Labour Leavers forget about Brexit and return to their home party, whereas in the same campaign Tory Remainers don't forget about Brexit and don't return home...

    ARRGHRGRHRGRHGHRH!

    And you are surprised by that?

    Boris has gone out of his way to make Tory Remainers unwelcome (by sacking 27 of them to begin with) while Corbyn really isn't that bothered if we leave or remain.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Slackbladder said:

    If the Lib Dems stand aside for labour, at all...then whats the point of them as a party?

    Democracy should be about choice. Not 'vote this one way or fuck off' binary simplistics.

    The difference between that and the Brexit party is that the Brexit party was never a functioning party in the first place/

    Matt's cartoon was really rather good (for the thousandth time!)

    https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1194315930223943684?s=20

  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    blueblue said:

    Also living up to my name, but it does seem like 2017 is repeating itself in all too horrific a way, leading to a repeat of the phenomenon that led to a hung Parliament then: an election campaign makes Labour Leavers forget about Brexit and return to their home party, whereas in the same campaign Tory Remainers don't forget about Brexit and don't return home...

    ARRGHRGRHRGRHGHRH!

    Every cloud has a silver lining :)
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    Stereotomy said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCChrisD/status/1194536184820748288?s=19

    Who?
    Lib Dem PPC for High Peak
    Thanks. I never heard of them and given the coverage the LDs get I suspect the bulk of the electorate will never hear of him either.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Why Labour is lost in the middle in Scotland

    The argument used to run that Labour - ideology aside - could not afford to allow Scotland to become independent because they'd never form a majority government in Westminster again without their huge block of Scottish MPs.

    If they can't rely on Scottish voters to provide those MPs, then their practical objections may fall away. Which could be why Jeremy Corbyn sounds so much more relaxed about an independence referendum than any of his predecessors.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-50405399?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.com/news/scotland/scotland_politics&link_location=live-reporting-correspondent
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    SouthamObserver said:

    Making the UK less European and more like the US is not going to end well.
    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1194584527836008448

    Pretax. The French tax system will have dragged them back again.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Sean_F said:

    Brom said:

    Stereotomy said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCChrisD/status/1194536184820748288?s=19

    If Lib Dems do start pulling out then it will hit Swinson's argument for needing a seat in the big debate. She will have to be very careful one or two does not become an avalanche because that is really going to hit the Lib Dem VI across the country. Tim Walker was never a Lib Dem, merely a slightly bonkers FBPE type, the worry is the Lib Dems may have adopted too many of these people at the expense of those who have the party interest at heart.
    It's not the job of the Lib Dems to prop up the Labour party. The candidates in Canterbury and High Peak a prize pair of twits.
    I agree with this.

    It is also not the job of Plaid Cymru & the Greens to prop up the LibDems.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Slackbladder said:

    If the Lib Dems stand aside for labour, at all...then whats the point of them as a party?

    Exactly. By being the Stop Brexit Party there really is no point to them in seats where there are alternative Remain-supporting MPs who can actually win. So they should stand aside.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Canterbury will be a solid Labour hold, I reckon, with or without the Lib Dems' co-operation. I live in the constituency and see/feel nothing to suggest otherwise.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    blueblue said:

    Also living up to my name, but it does seem like 2017 is repeating itself in all too horrific a way, leading to a repeat of the phenomenon that led to a hung Parliament then: an election campaign makes Labour Leavers forget about Brexit and return to their home party, whereas in the same campaign Tory Remainers don't forget about Brexit and don't return home...

    ARRGHRGRHRGRHGHRH!

    I don't think 2017 is repeating itself at all.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    KentRising said:

    Canterbury will be a solid Labour hold, I reckon, with or without the Lib Dems' co-operation. I live in the constituency and see/feel nothing to suggest otherwise.

    Interesting. My model predicts a Labour hold even with the Lib Dems standing.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Beibheirli_C said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    Stereotomy said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCChrisD/status/1194536184820748288?s=19

    Who?
    Lib Dem PPC for High Peak
    Thanks. I never heard of them and given the coverage the LDs get I suspect the bulk of the electorate will never hear of him either.
    It's a response to what happened in Canterbury. If it's just two seats I doubt it'll get much cut-through (though I look forward to bringing it up on the doorstep). If it happens in several more seats, then I expect it to feature more prominently in coverage, though that's unlikely.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    kamski said:

    I see there's a new Georgia poll out showing Trump behind all the potential Dem candidates. It's interesting because the assumption was the easiest path to Dems winning the Electoral College would be flipping Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvia (plus keeping everything they won in 2016). But in some recent polls Trump is doing OK in those states, he could easily hold on to one (or more) leaving the Dems needing somewhere else. Maybe Georgia will be easier than Florida in 2020.

    For a certain definition of OK. I.e. Cherry pick the polls that have him not bring crushed.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    KentRising said:

    Canterbury will be a solid Labour hold, I reckon, with or without the Lib Dems' co-operation. I live in the constituency and see/feel nothing to suggest otherwise.

    They have a 187 vote majority if they are on for a solid hold then we should all be lumping on Corbyn as next PM
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    StuartDickson said:

    Why Labour is lost in the middle in Scotland

    The argument used to run that Labour - ideology aside - could not afford to allow Scotland to become independent because they'd never form a majority government in Westminster again without their huge block of Scottish MPs.

    If they can't rely on Scottish voters to provide those MPs, then their practical objections may fall away. Which could be why Jeremy Corbyn sounds so much more relaxed about an independence referendum than any of his predecessors.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-50405399?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.com/news/scotland/scotland_politics&link_location=live-reporting-correspondent

    What a rubbish argument. England without Scottish MPs is like a giant tory disneyland.

    Corbyn can rely on Scottish voters to provide SNP MPs that loathe the tories as much if not more than labour Scottish MPs did. MPs who are quite happy to prop up his government.

    They can also be relied upon to keep failing to get and win independence referendums.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Fenman said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Making the UK less European and more like the US is not going to end well.
    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1194584527836008448

    Pretax. The French tax system will have dragged them back again.
    No. It is not as if the USA is a low tax country.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited November 2019
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    KentRising said:

    Canterbury will be a solid Labour hold, I reckon, with or without the Lib Dems' co-operation. I live in the constituency and see/feel nothing to suggest otherwise.

    Interesting. My model predicts a Labour hold even with the Lib Dems standing.
    Canterbury has the same demographic as in 2017 - lots of students - while Whitstable would normally be Leave-heavy (being a fishing town) but demographics moving quickly towards 'Bollocks to Brexit' London commuters and 'Down From London' types. Labour did very well in the 2019 council elections in central Whitstable (Gorrell), too. Can't see Anna Firth turning back the trend.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354
    dyedwoolie said:

    KentRising said:

    Canterbury will be a solid Labour hold, I reckon, with or without the Lib Dems' co-operation. I live in the constituency and see/feel nothing to suggest otherwise.

    They have a 187 vote majority if they are on for a solid hold then we should all be lumping on Corbyn as next PM
    Not so. It's in Leaver seats in the North that the Tories will be looking to turn in a majority winning performance. The South is much tougher, especially if the LD vote holds up.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited November 2019
    JFK, Carter, Clinton and Obama all got in after 8 years of a GOP President and only Carter faced the incumbent president. In 2020 the Democrats will have to beat an incumbent president after only one one term and 4 years in power.

    History tells us both parties pick older, more experienced candidates for that task e.g. Romney, Kerry, Dole, Mondale, Reagan or radicals like McGovern or Goldwater.

    2020 will likely be the same with the Democrats either picking the experienced Biden or the radical Warren or Sanders
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Did the cat jump out of the bag in Canterbury? that Swinson will prop up the Corbynites.

    Should go down well in Esher and Walton....
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354
    Alistair said:

    Fenman said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Making the UK less European and more like the US is not going to end well.
    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1194584527836008448

    Pretax. The French tax system will have dragged them back again.
    No. It is not as if the USA is a low tax country.
    It would be nice to see a post-tax graph, but like you I suspect it wouldn't be very different. Might even accentuent the point.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Alistair said:

    Fenman said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Making the UK less European and more like the US is not going to end well.
    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1194584527836008448

    Pretax. The French tax system will have dragged them back again.
    No. It is not as if the USA is a low tax country.
    It would be nice to see a post-tax graph, but like you I suspect it wouldn't be very different. Might even accentuent the point.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    contrarian said:

    Did the cat jump out of the bag in Canterbury? that Swinson will prop up the Corbynites.

    Should go down well in Esher and Walton....

    The opposite, surely? The local party wants to not run a candidate, LD HQ is imposing one.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    KentRising said:

    Canterbury will be a solid Labour hold, I reckon, with or without the Lib Dems' co-operation. I live in the constituency and see/feel nothing to suggest otherwise.

    They have a 187 vote majority if they are on for a solid hold then we should all be lumping on Corbyn as next PM
    Not so. It's in Leaver seats in the North that the Tories will be looking to turn in a majority winning performance. The South is much tougher, especially if the LD vote holds up.
    Labour are down by over 10 points, that is nationwide. Nothing suggests their vote will hold up in the SE in seats like this. Even if the Tories also go backwards 'solid hold' is hopelessly optimistic against the national picture as it stands. It's a hyper marginal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited November 2019
    KentRising said:

    Canterbury will be a solid Labour hold, I reckon, with or without the Lib Dems' co-operation. I live in the constituency and see/feel nothing to suggest otherwise.

    Yes Yougov has zero Labour to Tory swing in the South East from 2017 as opposed to a 22% swing from Labour to the Tories in the North West since 2017

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    dyedwoolie said:

    KentRising said:

    Canterbury will be a solid Labour hold, I reckon, with or without the Lib Dems' co-operation. I live in the constituency and see/feel nothing to suggest otherwise.

    They have a 187 vote majority if they are on for a solid hold then we should all be lumping on Corbyn as next PM
    I don't think election night will be as straightforward as that!
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191
    Alistair said:

    kamski said:

    I see there's a new Georgia poll out showing Trump behind all the potential Dem candidates. It's interesting because the assumption was the easiest path to Dems winning the Electoral College would be flipping Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvia (plus keeping everything they won in 2016). But in some recent polls Trump is doing OK in those states, he could easily hold on to one (or more) leaving the Dems needing somewhere else. Maybe Georgia will be easier than Florida in 2020.

    For a certain definition of OK. I.e. Cherry pick the polls that have him not bring crushed.
    Not really, have a look for yourself eg Pennsylvania (Wisconsin and Michigan are similar):
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/

    The latest poll shows Trump just ahead of both Sanders and Warren with likely voters (with an A+ rated pollster, too).

    Cherry-picking would be taking the 3rd most recent poll which has Trump 11 ahead of Warren in Pennsylvania.

    Or listen to the podcast for more analysis of this:
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-could-trump-lose-the-popular-vote-and-win-again/
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683
    Question. Tory Leavers are orgasmic when Nigel stands down his MPs to give their chaps a free run. But when a few Lib Dems decide to do something similar it's turpitude. Why is that?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354
    dyedwoolie said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    KentRising said:

    Canterbury will be a solid Labour hold, I reckon, with or without the Lib Dems' co-operation. I live in the constituency and see/feel nothing to suggest otherwise.

    They have a 187 vote majority if they are on for a solid hold then we should all be lumping on Corbyn as next PM
    Not so. It's in Leaver seats in the North that the Tories will be looking to turn in a majority winning performance. The South is much tougher, especially if the LD vote holds up.
    Labour are down by over 10 points, that is nationwide. Nothing suggests their vote will hold up in the SE in seats like this. Even if the Tories also go backwards 'solid hold' is hopelessly optimistic against the national picture as it stands. It's a hyper marginal.
    It's certainly a hypermarginal but it's equally certainly not the easy Con win you might imagine given a ten point lead nationally - for all the reasons given above and below.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    edited November 2019
    Sean_F said:

    It's not the job of the Lib Dems to prop up the Labour party.

    I agree. Their objective should be - and clearly is - to win as many seats as they can. End of. The messaging challenge they have is with "Stop Brexit" which has been their branding for some time, and which they still proclaim. Because if stopping Brexit were truly the number one priority, the clear and obvious best course of action is to not stand against Labour in seats where Labour have a much better chance than they do of winning. And ditto for Labour of course. They should not stand against the LDs in seats where the LDs are unambiguously best placed. Such a mutual arrangement would make this a quasi Ref2. It truly would be the "Brexit Election". As it is - Sky please note - it isn't.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    SouthamObserver said:

    Making the UK less European and more like the US is not going to end well.
    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1194584527836008448

    After tax income is still higher in the US
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    A bit more explanation from Guy Kiddey:

    https://twitter.com/GuyKiddey/status/1194555805514838016

    Seems his main concern is that the candidate who stood down in Canterbury is facing disciplinary action.

    Not sure the LD activist core is going to take very kindly to this kind of top-down bullying
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    KentRising said:

    Canterbury will be a solid Labour hold, I reckon, with or without the Lib Dems' co-operation. I live in the constituency and see/feel nothing to suggest otherwise.

    They have a 187 vote majority if they are on for a solid hold then we should all be lumping on Corbyn as next PM
    Not so. It's in Leaver seats in the North that the Tories will be looking to turn in a majority winning performance. The South is much tougher, especially if the LD vote holds up.
    Labour are down by over 10 points, that is nationwide. Nothing suggests their vote will hold up in the SE in seats like this. Even if the Tories also go backwards 'solid hold' is hopelessly optimistic against the national picture as it stands. It's a hyper marginal.
    It's certainly a hypermarginal but it's equally certainly not the easy Con win you might imagine given a ten point lead nationally - for all the reasons given above and below.
    As I said, 'solid hold' is hopelessly optimistic in the face of the current evidence. Narrow hold or loss possible, yes. Solid hold suggests a 2000 plus majority which would be a swing to labour of a notable amount
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Stereotomy said:

    Slackbladder said:

    If the Lib Dems stand aside for labour, at all...then whats the point of them as a party?

    Exactly. By being the Stop Brexit Party there really is no point to them in seats where there are alternative Remain-supporting MPs who can actually win. So they should stand aside.
    But don`t forget the party angle. If an MP takes the Labout whip, then she has to do as she is told. In the case of Labour, this is sometime being in favour of Remaining, and sometimes in favour of Leaving. I certainly would not want anybody to stand aside for a Labour candidate.

    There are several questions, all at play at the same time.

    1. Do you want to stay in the EU or do you want to leave it?
    2. Do you want a Johnson government with unfettered power?
    3. Do you want a Socialist government with unfettered power?

    For my part, I certainly do not want either 2 or 3. I do not hate and fear a Tory government so much that I would risk having a Socialist one. And conversely.
    The Lib Dems are our only option for ending up with a responsible government.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Question. Tory Leavers are orgasmic when Nigel stands down his MPs to give their chaps a free run. But when a few Lib Dems decide to do something similar it's turpitude. Why is that?

    The question is - surely - how assisting labour will be viewed in the leaft enclaves the libs are trying to win from the tories.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354
    edited November 2019
    Stereotomy said:

    contrarian said:

    Did the cat jump out of the bag in Canterbury? that Swinson will prop up the Corbynites.

    Should go down well in Esher and Walton....

    The opposite, surely? The local party wants to not run a candidate, LD HQ is imposing one.
    So did the cat jump back into the bag? Or was there no effing bag to begin with?

    Brexit is costing us our future, Labour is planning to visit Venezuela on us, and we are fretting over LD selection policy in Canterbury?

    Jeez.....
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Alistair said:

    Fenman said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Making the UK less European and more like the US is not going to end well.
    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1194584527836008448

    Pretax. The French tax system will have dragged them back again.
    No. It is not as if the USA is a low tax country.
    It would be nice to see a post-tax graph, but like you I suspect it wouldn't be very different. Might even accentuent the point.
    And given every state has different taxes on top of the federal taxes it is very location dependent.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    StuartDickson said:

    Why Labour is lost in the middle in Scotland

    The argument used to run that Labour - ideology aside - could not afford to allow Scotland to become independent because they'd never form a majority government in Westminster again without their huge block of Scottish MPs.

    If they can't rely on Scottish voters to provide those MPs, then their practical objections may fall away. Which could be why Jeremy Corbyn sounds so much more relaxed about an independence referendum than any of his predecessors.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-50405399?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.com/news/scotland/scotland_politics&link_location=live-reporting-correspondent

    Corbyn ruled out indyref2 in the first term of a Labour government today, though Labour will come 4th in Scotland anyway
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    If we had a fair electoral system parties wouldn't have to spend most of their time trying to game it.

    Strange that many of those most exercised by the "will of the people" voting in the referendum don't give a stuff whether our electoral system delivers the "will of the people" when we are electing a government.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Making the UK less European and more like the US is not going to end well.
    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1194584527836008448

    After tax income is still higher in the US
    Citation needed.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    eek said:

    blueblue said:

    Also living up to my name, but it does seem like 2017 is repeating itself in all too horrific a way, leading to a repeat of the phenomenon that led to a hung Parliament then: an election campaign makes Labour Leavers forget about Brexit and return to their home party, whereas in the same campaign Tory Remainers don't forget about Brexit and don't return home...

    ARRGHRGRHRGRHGHRH!

    And you are surprised by that?

    Boris has gone out of his way to make Tory Remainers unwelcome (by sacking 27 of them to begin with) while Corbyn really isn't that bothered if we leave or remain.
    I'm surprised to the extent that the electorate can't see that a hung Parliament will mean years of national paralysis, and that Corbynite Labour needs a good electoral kicking if we're to avoid a socialist future in this country.

    This election should be a no-brainer. But sadly all it will prove is that the electorate indeed has no brain...
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354
    Alistair said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Alistair said:

    Fenman said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Making the UK less European and more like the US is not going to end well.
    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1194584527836008448

    Pretax. The French tax system will have dragged them back again.
    No. It is not as if the USA is a low tax country.
    It would be nice to see a post-tax graph, but like you I suspect it wouldn't be very different. Might even accentuent the point.
    And given every state has different taxes on top of the federal taxes it is very location dependent.
    Agreed. [Did u notice the new verb I created? No, I don't know what it means either. :blush: ]
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    KentRising said:

    Canterbury will be a solid Labour hold, I reckon, with or without the Lib Dems' co-operation. I live in the constituency and see/feel nothing to suggest otherwise.

    Have you considered that a) all the students who helped elect Rosie Duffield last time have now graduated, and their replacements will need to be convinced all over again, and b) lots of them may end up voting in their parents' constituencies this time, as it's right at the end of term time?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    OllyT said:

    If we had a fair electoral system parties wouldn't have to spend most of their time trying to game it.

    Strange that many of those most exercised by the "will of the people" voting in the referendum don't give a stuff whether our electoral system delivers the "will of the people" when we are electing a government.

    The will of the people was to maintain the current electoral system for Westminster elections.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,152
    HYUFD said:

    JFK, Carter, Clinton and Obama all got in after 8 years of a GOP President and only Carter faced the incumbent president. In 2020 the Democrats will have to beat an incumbent president after only one one term and 4 years in power.

    Clinton also faced an incumbent President.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    JFK, Carter, Clinton and Obama all got in after 8 years of a GOP President and only Carter faced the incumbent president. In 2020 the Democrats will have to beat an incumbent president after only one one term and 4 years in power.

    Clinton also faced an incumbent President.
    OK him too but after 12 years of GOP presidents again not 4
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Endillion said:

    KentRising said:

    Canterbury will be a solid Labour hold, I reckon, with or without the Lib Dems' co-operation. I live in the constituency and see/feel nothing to suggest otherwise.

    Have you considered that a) all the students who helped elect Rosie Duffield last time have now graduated, and their replacements will need to be convinced all over again, and b) lots of them may end up voting in their parents' constituencies this time, as it's right at the end of term time?
    Hmm, maybe, but can't help feeling that's a bit of straw-clutching!
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    PClipp said:

    But don`t forget the party angle. If an MP takes the Labout whip, then she has to do as she is told. In the case of Labour, this is sometime being in favour of Remaining, and sometimes in favour of Leaving. I certainly would not want anybody to stand aside for a Labour candidate.

    So the MP will have to support a second referendum, Labour's policy. That's apparently good enough to allow Greens, SNP and PC into the Remain Alliance so I can see why some LD activists are confused about why they're being told to help a Tory get elected in that seat instead.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Question. Tory Leavers are orgasmic when Nigel stands down his MPs to give their chaps a free run. But when a few Lib Dems decide to do something similar it's turpitude. Why is that?

    Speaking as a Tory, leaver, I don't give two hoots what Nigel Farage does or doesn't do. But to answer your question, it's because the Brexit Party aren't claiming to be a serious political party with a broad domestic agenda and ambition to givern to fulfil it: they're unambiguously a single issue protest vote movement that exists solely to force through Brexit; after which they will effectively cease to exist.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    kamski said:

    Alistair said:

    kamski said:

    I see there's a new Georgia poll out showing Trump behind all the potential Dem candidates. It's interesting because the assumption was the easiest path to Dems winning the Electoral College would be flipping Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvia (plus keeping everything they won in 2016). But in some recent polls Trump is doing OK in those states, he could easily hold on to one (or more) leaving the Dems needing somewhere else. Maybe Georgia will be easier than Florida in 2020.

    For a certain definition of OK. I.e. Cherry pick the polls that have him not bring crushed.
    Not really, have a look for yourself eg Pennsylvania (Wisconsin and Michigan are similar):
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/

    The latest poll shows Trump just ahead of both Sanders and Warren with likely voters (with an A+ rated pollster, too).

    Cherry-picking would be taking the 3rd most recent poll which has Trump 11 ahead of Warren in Pennsylvania.

    Or listen to the podcast for more analysis of this:
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-could-trump-lose-the-popular-vote-and-win-again/
    Using the 538 aggregated polls we see that:

    In Wisconsin out of 43 match ups Trump leads in 4 of them.
    In Michigan out of 50 match ups Trump leads in 9 of them.
    In Pennsylvania out of 29 match ups Trump leads in 7 of them.

    If that's OK I'd hate to see what doing badly looks like.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,570
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Making the UK less European and more like the US is not going to end well.
    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1194584527836008448

    After tax income is still higher in the US
    Citation needed.
    https://eu.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/06/01/how-much-the-average-income-nets-you-after-taxes-in-every-state/39530627/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Making the UK less European and more like the US is not going to end well.
    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1194584527836008448

    After tax income is still higher in the US
    Citation needed.
    France takes 47% of gdp in tax, the US 27%

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tax_revenue_to_GDP_ratio
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Alistair said:

    Fenman said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Making the UK less European and more like the US is not going to end well.
    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1194584527836008448

    Pretax. The French tax system will have dragged them back again.
    No. It is not as if the USA is a low tax country.
    It would be nice to see a post-tax graph, but like you I suspect it wouldn't be very different. Might even accentuent the point.
    Also you need to consider demographics. Old people generally have less income.
  • M.PartridgeM.Partridge Posts: 70
    Can I ask other PBers what bets they have going on for the UK election at the moment, intrigued to get the feel of where you think it is going.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354
    dyedwoolie said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    KentRising said:

    Canterbury will be a solid Labour hold, I reckon, with or without the Lib Dems' co-operation. I live in the constituency and see/feel nothing to suggest otherwise.

    They have a 187 vote majority if they are on for a solid hold then we should all be lumping on Corbyn as next PM
    Not so. It's in Leaver seats in the North that the Tories will be looking to turn in a majority winning performance. The South is much tougher, especially if the LD vote holds up.
    Labour are down by over 10 points, that is nationwide. Nothing suggests their vote will hold up in the SE in seats like this. Even if the Tories also go backwards 'solid hold' is hopelessly optimistic against the national picture as it stands. It's a hyper marginal.
    It's certainly a hypermarginal but it's equally certainly not the easy Con win you might imagine given a ten point lead nationally - for all the reasons given above and below.
    As I said, 'solid hold' is hopelessly optimistic in the face of the current evidence. Narrow hold or loss possible, yes. Solid hold suggests a 2000 plus majority which would be a swing to labour of a notable amount
    Terminological differences. Let's put some numbers on it. Ladbrokes go 8/11 Conservatives. You a backer or layer?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    KentRising said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    KentRising said:

    Canterbury will be a solid Labour hold, I reckon, with or without the Lib Dems' co-operation. I live in the constituency and see/feel nothing to suggest otherwise.

    They have a 187 vote majority if they are on for a solid hold then we should all be lumping on Corbyn as next PM
    I don't think election night will be as straightforward as that!
    I'm really surprised if this is the case. The student vote was phenomenal last time and it was the most impressive seat change of 2017 but with a Christmas election, a new set of students and seemingly no Youthquake it will be a tough hold. Obviously the BXP should help Labour here, but I always imagined quite a few non student voters were just bored of Julian Brazier and never anticipated the seat would go blue...
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Gove comes quickly, whatever you do:

    https://twitter.com/andysilke/status/1194541555291430913
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,152
    HYUFD said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    JFK, Carter, Clinton and Obama all got in after 8 years of a GOP President and only Carter faced the incumbent president. In 2020 the Democrats will have to beat an incumbent president after only one one term and 4 years in power.

    Clinton also faced an incumbent President.
    OK him too but after 12 years of GOP presidents again not 4
    Your statement was still inaccurate - I was simply pointing that out.

    I agree that defeating an incumbent (even a fairly unpopular one) is harder than winning an election with no incumbent. However, it's not a particularly original idea, and there are several examples of candidates doing just that.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Making the UK less European and more like the US is not going to end well.
    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1194584527836008448

    After tax income is still higher in the US
    Citation needed.
    France takes 47% of gdp in tax, the US 27%

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tax_revenue_to_GDP_ratio
    What?

    What do you think that proves.

    If (for example) no-one in France earning under 20 thousand Euros paid any tax then it is completely irrelevant what the countries Tax take to GDP is.

    Like, I am completely blown away by the utter randomness of your link.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    dyedwoolie said:

    Jo Swinson, throwing away golden opportunities since 2019

    J - Jock
    O - Orator

    S - States
    W - Women
    I - In
    N - Northern
    S - Scotland
    O - Own
    N - Nothing
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    blueblue said:

    eek said:

    blueblue said:

    Also living up to my name, but it does seem like 2017 is repeating itself in all too horrific a way, leading to a repeat of the phenomenon that led to a hung Parliament then: an election campaign makes Labour Leavers forget about Brexit and return to their home party, whereas in the same campaign Tory Remainers don't forget about Brexit and don't return home...

    ARRGHRGRHRGRHGHRH!

    And you are surprised by that?

    Boris has gone out of his way to make Tory Remainers unwelcome (by sacking 27 of them to begin with) while Corbyn really isn't that bothered if we leave or remain.
    I'm surprised to the extent that the electorate can't see that a hung Parliament will mean years of national paralysis, and that Corbynite Labour needs a good electoral kicking if we're to avoid a socialist future in this country.

    This election should be a no-brainer. But sadly all it will prove is that the electorate indeed has no brain...
    I'm surprised to the extent that the electorate can't see that a Tory majority will mean years of an unscrupulous politician defying the law, and that Johnsonite Conservatism needs a good electoral kicking if we're to avoid an authoritarian future in this country.

    This election should be a no-brainer. But sadly all it will prove is that the electorate indeed has no brain...

    [
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    M.Partridge said:

    Can I ask other PBers what bets they have going on for the UK election at the moment, intrigued to get the feel of where you think it is going.

    Are you a Cummings bot?
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674
    blueblue said:

    Also living up to my name, but it does seem like 2017 is repeating itself in all too horrific a way, leading to a repeat of the phenomenon that led to a hung Parliament then: an election campaign makes Labour Leavers forget about Brexit and return to their home party, whereas in the same campaign Tory Remainers don't forget about Brexit and don't return home...

    ARRGHRGRHRGRHGHRH!

    2017 is not repeating itself...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    edited November 2019
    Com Res have Con 37%, Lab 29%, Lib Dem 17%, TBP 9%, conducted on 8 - 10 November.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Making the UK less European and more like the US is not going to end well.
    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1194584527836008448

    After tax income is still higher in the US
    Citation needed.
    France takes 47% of gdp in tax, the US 27%

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tax_revenue_to_GDP_ratio
    What?

    What do you think that proves.

    If (for example) no-one in France earning under 20 thousand Euros paid any tax then it is completely irrelevant what the countries Tax take to GDP is.

    Like, I am completely blown away by the utter randomness of your link.
    You expect quality as well as quantity?
  • M.PartridgeM.Partridge Posts: 70
    Mysticrose said:

    M.Partridge said:

    Can I ask other PBers what bets they have going on for the UK election at the moment, intrigued to get the feel of where you think it is going.

    Are you a Cummings bot?
    A Conservative yes, but a remainer, so most likely voting Lib Dem
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FPT
    viewcode said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    148grss said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Yes there is, get deals with both. Job done.

    The problem is, how can we import goods from the US that the EU won't allow exported into the EU without huge bureaucracy? The US want us to be the gateway into the EU for all their goods, and the EU want to protect their goods and standards. With both pulling in opposite directions, getting a deal that satisfies both will be very difficult. Getting a deal that satisfies both AND the British public would be almost impossible.
    You've never heard of Country of Origin?

    We're not inventing the wheel here. Many countries and regions [including the EU itself of course] have multiple trade agreements. Country of Origin is well established and already works within EU systems.
    Things will have changed if Johnson gets a working majority on Brexit:
    1. Up to now I think the EU have been predictably taking a very hard negotiating stance because there was a real possibility that the UK could change its mind if they did, and the UK changing its mind was their preferred outcome. The likes of Blair were lobbying for them not to offer anything. The option of the UK changing its mind will be off the table in future negotiations.
    2. They will also know that without the constraints of a Benn Act Mk2 he will have the option of walking away and they will have to regard that as a real rather than imaginary threat.

    So it is folly to make a simplistic assumption that future negotiations will be as difficult as what went before, because the context will have changed.

    The bottom line is that the EU wants to preserve its export markets in the UK and once it has accepted that we have left it will not be prepared to put those at risk, even if what it ends up with is in its eyes sub-optimal.
    Leavers in Sep 2019: Foolish Remainers! Boris will threaten no deal and get stacks!
    Leavers in Oct 2019: Foolish Remainers! Obviously Boris did not intend no deal!
    Leavers in Nov 2019: Foolish Remainers! Boris will threaten no deal and get stacks!


    All entirely consistent.

    You have to seriously be prepared to threaten to walk away with no deal in order to get a good deal, that doesn't mean you intend no deal.

    Just the same as you spend on your military in order to have peace. The Romans had an expression: Si vis pacem, para bellum that logic was known thousands of years ago is still relevant today.

    PS if you wanted no deal you wouldn't threaten it, you'd just prepare for it and walk away without engaging in negotiations.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,231
    kamski said:

    I see there's a new Georgia poll out showing Trump behind all the potential Dem candidates. It's interesting because the assumption was the easiest path to Dems winning the Electoral College would be flipping Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvia (plus keeping everything they won in 2016). But in some recent polls Trump is doing OK in those states, he could easily hold on to one (or more) leaving the Dems needing somewhere else. Maybe Georgia will be easier than Florida in 2020.

    Wisconsin will go blue in 2020. Michigan and Pennsylvania are harder calls.

    The Trump tariff war has hammered Iowa farmers, and I think that could flip. Arizona is becoming bluer by the day, and I think that's also likely to go to the Dems.

    Which makes this a pretty exciting election.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    M.Partridge said:

    Mysticrose said:

    M.Partridge said:

    Can I ask other PBers what bets they have going on for the UK election at the moment, intrigued to get the feel of where you think it is going.

    Are you a Cummings bot?
    A Conservative yes, but a remainer, so most likely voting Lib Dem
    That wasn't the question.

    Someone new comes on here and asks us all how we feel things are going.

    Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm .....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1194592784801501186?s=20
This discussion has been closed.