Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now five of the top 6 in the Democratic nomination betting are

12346

Comments

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Pierrot said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pierrot said:

    It's telling that everyone seems to be discussing trivia and ignoring Labour's latest bout of hosing tens of billions at every problem, real or imagined. (Hardly a day goes by without another few tens of billion being thrown at the wall). I'm not sure, but I think that means Labour is losing even more credibility by this ceaseless barrage of improbable-sounding initiatives with eye-watering sums attached to them.

    Given the Tories' own spending promises they may find it hard to say "Don't vote Labour because Labour want to throw lots of taxpayers' money at all kinds of problems as if that's likely to solve any of them".

    The "Get help from working class northerners by giving them a light blue arrow on the ballot paper with 'Brexit' written on it" strategy may turn out to be a failure. I wouldn't underestimate the importance of "common sense" oop North. "If you want a Tory government, vote Tory; if you want to remove the Tories from office, vote Labour" is common sense in many constituencies.

    I know it's only numbers an' all but Cons' spending plans amount to around 1.1% of GDP. Lab's are double that. Both are sending economists white at the thought.

    Don't expect any cut-through with the public whatsoever.
    The Labour message is pure: "Let's have a lot of public spending". The Tories' is complicated: "Let's have a lot of public spending, but whoa, not as much as our opponents want to have. Let's have a lot but not an unreasonably large lot".
    I don't think it (the Cons' message) is that bad. Let's spend but not crazy spending. We're spending a lot but not as crazily as that lot.

    But then of course I would say that. We shall see what the country takes to.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    'Berlin rocks,' says Elon Musk as he chooses European factory
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50400068

    "Mr Musk also cited risks surrounding the UK's exit from the EU for his decision, according to AutoExpress.
    "Brexit [uncertainty] made it too risky to put a Gigafactory in the UK," he told the trade magazine."

    See what you have lost us, Remainers, with all your dicking around.....
    A new definition of "chutzpah", thank you.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    egg said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pierrot said:

    It's telling that everyone seems to be discussing trivia and ignoring Labour's latest bout of hosing tens of billions at every problem, real or imagined. (Hardly a day goes by without another few tens of billion being thrown at the wall). I'm not sure, but I think that means Labour is losing even more credibility by this ceaseless barrage of improbable-sounding initiatives with eye-watering sums attached to them.

    Given the Tories' own spending promises they may find it hard to say "Don't vote Labour because Labour want to throw lots of taxpayers' money at all kinds of problems as if that's likely to solve any of them".

    The "Get help from working class northerners by giving them a light blue arrow on the ballot paper with 'Brexit' written on it" strategy may turn out to be a failure. I wouldn't underestimate the importance of "common sense" oop North. "If you want a Tory government, vote Tory; if you want to remove the Tories from office, vote Labour" is common sense in many constituencies.

    I know it's only numbers an' all but Cons' spending plans amount to around 1.1% of GDP. Lab's are double that. Both are sending economists white at the thought.

    Don't expect any cut-through with the public whatsoever.
    I’m not sure. To start with we haven’t had any manifestos yet so what’s being presented as fact can’t be. Secondly it depends on time. Boris 40 hospitals is only 6 in first five years isn’t it, so labour could hardly use cost of 40 hospitals in this election it would be fake news. Then there is how honestly they report cost balance of their own homework, because more neutral fact checkers will do that and report to the voters the truth.

    And then, slight curve ball, economists picking up on unwitting consequences of policy, like what happened with kill all sparrows.
    Cons can't have their cake and eat it. Their headline is 40 hospitals so to accuse Lab of fake news by pointing out that it is six and then they are essentially brownfield projects to boot, would be to accept that the 40 number is wrong. Although the remaining 34 do have £100m "seed funding". Which doesn't help either side.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Not that weird to fear historic opportunity for brexit lost in hung parliament and 2nd ref and at moment he will get most the blame.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    edited November 2019
    TOPPING said:

    Boris on Sky News repeating 'One Nation' and 'moderate' over and over again, in case we're confused about what his pitch is.

    Well it worked for Strong and Stable.

    :neutral:
    Good thing we avoided all that chaos...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    Pierrot said:

    It's telling that everyone seems to be discussing trivia and ignoring Labour's latest bout of hosing tens of billions at every problem, real or imagined. (Hardly a day goes by without another few tens of billion being thrown at the wall). I'm not sure, but I think that means Labour is losing even more credibility by this ceaseless barrage of improbable-sounding initiatives with eye-watering sums attached to them.

    Given the Tories' own spending promises they may find it hard to say "Don't vote Labour because Labour want to throw lots of taxpayers' money at all kinds of problems as if that's likely to solve any of them".

    The "Get help from working class northerners by giving them a light blue arrow on the ballot paper with 'Brexit' written on it" strategy may turn out to be a failure. I wouldn't underestimate the importance of "common sense" oop North. "If you want a Tory government, vote Tory; if you want to remove the Tories from office, vote Labour" is common sense in many constituencies.

    I know it's only numbers an' all but Cons' spending plans amount to around 1.1% of GDP. Lab's are double that. Both are sending economists white at the thought.

    Don't expect any cut-through with the public whatsoever.
    What is often lost from election arguments is "a matter of degree".
    I'm sure that I could come up with a better analogy but the Tories are implying a punch in the face to the economy whilst Labour are promising stoving in its head with repeated blows from a blunt instrument.
    I would agree with that - as I mentioned to @Pierrot I think it is perfectly possible to have degrees of spending and for the public to understand that.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    Great news Royal Mail has won its high court injunction blocking the December postal strike, means postal votes can be delivered and returned unhindered and CWU bullyboy tactics will not work this time

    I thought you said it did not matter if postal ballots were returned late as long as the postmark was on time? :smiley:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    Sturgeon follows Swinson and takes legal action to try and force their inclusion in the ITV debate between Boris and Corbyn

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-50410790
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    dr_spyn said:

    Will the plot of SeanT's next book feature kayaking in cold climes.

    https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/1194640183003668481

    I think it will involve pickled penis's! :wink:
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    rpjs said:

    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Will the plot of SeanT's next book feature kayaking in cold climes.

    https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/1194640183003668481

    I wonder if Sean has bumped into Byronic? He said he was off to Antarctica.
    Pure coincidence
    Big place, Antarctica.
    Not if you restrict it to the places in Antarctica where there are humans.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Oh come on. Pull the other one.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    That reminds me of Uncle Harvey in the League of Gentlemen, lecturing his nephew about onanism.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300

    dr_spyn said:

    Will the plot of SeanT's next book feature kayaking in cold climes.

    https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/1194640183003668481

    I think it will involve pickled penis's! :wink:
    Had wondered if a character will be finished off by a kayak paddle.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236
    edited November 2019
    TOPPING said:

    Yes it's refreshing for Jeremy not to pander to people and instead state unequivocally what he believes about any issue.

    How craven and weaselly it would be for a politician, especially one leading a national party, not to tell people what he thought or believed on any particular issue.

    You are of course referring to Brexit.

    I doubt that he has a strong preference between the 2 Labour options of (i) Leave but in a way that is tantamount to Remaining or (ii) Actually Remaining.

    And if that is the case - after all there is not much between those options - why should he pretend to have a passionate view merely to satisfy those who want the nation to be artificially polarized?

    Again, I think, he is occupying the higher ground here. Although it might well be that he is not rewarded for it at the ballot box.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Sean_F said:

    That reminds me of Uncle Harvey in the League of Gentlemen, lecturing his nephew about onanism.
    In this house.....😂
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    Oh come on. Pull the other one.
    Indeed. Lacking a climax.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    viewcode said:

    Oh come on. Pull the other one.
    Indeed. Lacking a climax.
    At least the story had a happy ending.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    'Berlin rocks,' says Elon Musk as he chooses European factory
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50400068

    "Mr Musk also cited risks surrounding the UK's exit from the EU for his decision, according to AutoExpress.
    "Brexit [uncertainty] made it too risky to put a Gigafactory in the UK," he told the trade magazine."

    See what you have lost us, Remainers, with all your dicking around.....
    IF BJ and the ERG had backed the WA earlier this year you might have valid criticism of Remainer's but they did not. You seem to not understand that leaving the SM and CU puts us at a strategic disadvantage as warned and Brexit means loss of investment due to unfetted access being withdrawn. I am beginning to worry about your ability to grasp reality in your political views... :smile:
  • camel said:

    camel said:

    HYUFD said:

    Why Labour is lost in the middle in Scotland

    The argument used to run that Labour - ideology aside - could not afford to allow Scotland to become independent because they'd never form a majority government in Westminster again without their huge block of Scottish MPs.

    If they can't rely on Scottish voters to provide those MPs, then their practical objections may fall away. Which could be why Jeremy Corbyn sounds so much more relaxed about an independence referendum than any of his predecessors.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-50405399?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.com/news/scotland/scotland_politics&link_location=live-reporting-correspondent

    Corbyn ruled out indyref2 in the first term of a Labour government today, though Labour will come 4th in Scotland anyway
    No independence referendum = no PM Corbyn

    Not too bright that lad.
    Mathematically, this equation should work in reverse.

    no PM Corbyn = No independence referendum

    Of course. Maths is an unforgiving mistress.

    We are banking on The Clown pulling a DUP. No Surrender!

    If he had any sense he’d call our bluff.
    I pose the question only because I genuinely don't understand why SNP doesn't support Corbyn more. 15 English gains would stop Brexit and pave the way for an easy transition to an independent Scotland. Yet the dislike seems visceral.

    It's not as if Labour are a competitor on your own patch. Those days are gone. Even the Edinburgh South dude has given up the Labour ghost.
    “It's not as if Labour are a competitor on your own patch.”

    Huh? Are you bonkers?

    If there is one thing that we have learn from the long decline and fall of the Scottish Labour Party, it is this:

    DON’T BE COMPLACENT, STUPID.
  • Sean_F said:

    That reminds me of Uncle Harvey in the League of Gentlemen, lecturing his nephew about onanism.
    In this house.....😂
    Does this mean Boris is a "onan Nation Conservative"?

  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    TOPPING said:

    egg said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pierrot said:

    It's telling that everyone seems to be discussing trivia and ignoring Labour's latest bout of hosing tens of billions at every problem, real or imagined. (Hardly a day goes by without another few tens of billion being thrown at the wall). I'm not sure, but I think that means Labour is losing even more credibility by this ceaseless barrage of improbable-sounding initiatives with eye-watering sums attached to them.

    Given the Tories' own spending promises they may find it hard to say "Don't vote Labour because Labour want to throw lots of taxpayers' money at all kinds of problems as if that's likely to solve any of them".

    I know it's only numbers an' all but Cons' spending plans amount to around 1.1% of GDP. Lab's are double that. Both are sending economists white at the thought.

    Don't expect any cut-through with the public whatsoever.
    I’m not sure. To start with we haven’t had any manifestos yet so what’s being presented as fact can’t be. Secondly it depends on time. Boris 40 hospitals is only 6 in first five years isn’t it, so labour could hardly use cost of 40 hospitals in this election it would be fake news. Then there is how honestly they report cost balance of their own homework, because more neutral fact checkers will do that and report to the voters the truth.

    And then, slight curve ball, economists picking up on unwitting consequences of policy, like what happened with kill all sparrows.
    Cons can't have their cake and eat it. Their headline is 40 hospitals so to accuse Lab of fake news by pointing out that it is six and then they are essentially brownfield projects to boot, would be to accept that the 40 number is wrong. Although the remaining 34 do have £100m "seed funding". Which doesn't help either side.
    But this is what always happens at GE isn’t it, Forty hospitals, 4 day week, living wage increases, it’s not explicitly in small print to be in place Monday after election, it’s headline grabber with small print that is different policy, the con just as much on the promiser more than the con of taking them at their word to claim we go bankrupt.

    It’s the libdems who have come cropper on this most in the past. 2010 they had some nice spending plans, very attractive, but paid for by giving up nuclear deterrent. Another occasion spending plans paid for by clamping down on tax evasion, another fantasy where you cannot guarantee funding from that as that would be expensive in itself.

    This is one area where in a week or so I think Labour will have an advantage over the Conservatives, when fact checked two years ago they had been quite upfront of cost of their programme and where the money would come from.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited November 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Great news Royal Mail has won its high court injunction blocking the December postal strike, means postal votes can be delivered and returned unhindered and CWU bullyboy tactics will not work this time

    I thought you said it did not matter if postal ballots were returned late as long as the postmark was on time? :smiley:
    Even if it was (it is in many US states and Florida, see 2000) you still need to get them returned early enough to be postmarked, so no strike at all is the best result
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721
    TOPPING said:

    Pierrot said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pierrot said:

    It's telling that everyone seems to be discussing trivia and ignoring Labour's latest bout of hosing tens of billions at every problem, real or imagined. (Hardly a day goes by without another few tens of billion being thrown at the wall). I'm not sure, but I think that means Labour is losing even more credibility by this ceaseless barrage of improbable-sounding initiatives with eye-watering sums attached to them.

    Given the Tories' own spending promises they may find it hard to say "Don't vote Labour because Labour want to throw lots of taxpayers' money at all kinds of problems as if that's likely to solve any of them".

    The "Get help from working class northerners by giving them a light blue arrow on the ballot paper with 'Brexit' written on it" strategy may turn out to be a failure. I wouldn't underestimate the importance of "common sense" oop North. "If you want a Tory government, vote Tory; if you want to remove the Tories from office, vote Labour" is common sense in many constituencies.

    I know it's only numbers an' all but Cons' spending plans amount to around 1.1% of GDP. Lab's are double that. Both are sending economists white at the thought.

    Don't expect any cut-through with the public whatsoever.
    The Labour message is pure: "Let's have a lot of public spending". The Tories' is complicated: "Let's have a lot of public spending, but whoa, not as much as our opponents want to have. Let's have a lot but not an unreasonably large lot".
    I don't think it (the Cons' message) is that bad. Let's spend but not crazy spending. We're spending a lot but not as crazily as that lot.

    But then of course I would say that. We shall see what the country takes to.
    Though the 6% of GDP with BoZo's Brexit does need to be factored into the spending spree maths.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Winter is coming! Specifically, Dartmoor is white with snow (or was until it got dark half an hour ago). And polling day is 4 weeks deeper into it.
  • dr_spyn said:
    Irrelevant attention seeker. Should simply be ignored for now.
  • It's strange how many PB posters seem convinced that Labour are definitely set to close their present gap behind the Tories and that this has already commenced, yet both both the spread-betting firms offering GE seats are today showing the Tories at a new high.

    Hes not going to close it. Or at least not by enough...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Winter is coming! Specifically, Dartmoor is white with snow (or was until it got dark half an hour ago). And polling day is 4 weeks deeper into it.

    Is that where you live? Dartmoor?
  • 'Berlin rocks,' says Elon Musk as he chooses European factory
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50400068

    "Mr Musk also cited risks surrounding the UK's exit from the EU for his decision, according to AutoExpress.
    "Brexit [uncertainty] made it too risky to put a Gigafactory in the UK," he told the trade magazine."

    See what you have lost us, Remainers, with all your dicking around.....
    IF BJ and the ERG had backed the WA earlier this year you might have valid criticism of Remainer's but they did not. You seem to not understand that leaving the SM and CU puts us at a strategic disadvantage as warned and Brexit means loss of investment due to unfetted access being withdrawn. I am beginning to worry about your ability to grasp reality in your political views... :smile:
    Remaining in a Customs Union puts us at a massive strategic disadvantage. Though I agree it would be better to stay in the SM.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    TOPPING said:

    Boris on Sky News repeating 'One Nation' and 'moderate' over and over again, in case we're confused about what his pitch is.

    Well it worked for Strong and Stable.

    :neutral:
    Are they getting feedback saying they are losing moderate voters?
  • dr_spyn said:
    Genuinely, who now cares how he votes?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited November 2019

    It's strange how many PB posters seem convinced that Labour are definitely set to close their present gap behind the Tories and that this has already commenced, yet both both the spread-betting firms offering GE seats are today showing the Tories at a new high.

    Hes not going to close it. Or at least not by enough...
    He needs the LDs vote to collapse again in his favour, less likely this time given the LDs are taking a much harder pro Remain line and a big manifesto gaffe again from the Tories, unlikely as Boris will run a more populist campaign than May.

    If not Labour is sleepwalking to a 1983 style wipeout if Yougov is correct
  • Surely most people who support the rule of law and oppose extra-judicial killings would agree with Corbyn on this. Better to arrest people and subject them to a fair trial followed by a suitable punishment if possible. Note the if possible. Maybe it wasn't possible this time. If you read what Corbyn actually said as opposed to the hysterical right wing over reaction to it then it looks quite reasonable, as is so often the case. I am no fan of Corbyn but Woodcock is ridiculous.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    kinabalu said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Winter is coming! Specifically, Dartmoor is white with snow (or was until it got dark half an hour ago). And polling day is 4 weeks deeper into it.

    Is that where you live? Dartmoor?
    One of the world's under-appreciated wonders ...
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    'Berlin rocks,' says Elon Musk as he chooses European factory
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50400068

    "Mr Musk also cited risks surrounding the UK's exit from the EU for his decision, according to AutoExpress.
    "Brexit [uncertainty] made it too risky to put a Gigafactory in the UK," he told the trade magazine."

    See what you have lost us, Remainers, with all your dicking around.....
    IF BJ and the ERG had backed the WA earlier this year you might have valid criticism of Remainer's but they did not. You seem to not understand that leaving the SM and CU puts us at a strategic disadvantage as warned and Brexit means loss of investment due to unfetted access being withdrawn. I am beginning to worry about your ability to grasp reality in your political views... :smile:
    Remaining in a Customs Union puts us at a massive strategic disadvantage. Though I agree it would be better to stay in the SM.
    The customs union does in terms of being able to negotiate trade deals but I was just saying you cannot really blame remainer's for companies choosing not to invest here when we are leaving both. It is a product of Leaving!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    God bless Corbyn, not letting the election get in the way of his principles :D
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721

    dr_spyn said:
    Genuinely, who now cares how he votes?
    Around 8% of the polling public?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Winter is coming! Specifically, Dartmoor is white with snow (or was until it got dark half an hour ago). And polling day is 4 weeks deeper into it.

    Dartmoor must get freezing.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Great news Royal Mail has won its high court injunction blocking the December postal strike, means postal votes can be delivered and returned unhindered and CWU bullyboy tactics will not work this time

    I thought you said it did not matter if postal ballots were returned late as long as the postmark was on time? :smiley:
    Even if it was (it is in many US states and Florida, see 2000) you still need to get them returned early enough to be postmarked, so no strike at all is the best result
    In case you had not noticed we don't live in the United States but the United Kingdom. Any ballots that are late do not count IMO!
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited November 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    God bless Corbyn, not letting the election get in the way of his principles :D
    how do you arrest someone after they have been killed by the US?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,156

    Surely most people who support the rule of law and oppose extra-judicial killings would agree with Corbyn on this. Better to arrest people and subject them to a fair trial followed by a suitable punishment if possible. Note the if possible. Maybe it wasn't possible this time. If you read what Corbyn actually said as opposed to the hysterical right wing over reaction to it then it looks quite reasonable, as is so often the case. I am no fan of Corbyn but Woodcock is ridiculous.
    I tend to disagree, but eithee way it doesn't matter - this sort of thing did not hurt him before and it won't now.
  • 'Berlin rocks,' says Elon Musk as he chooses European factory
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50400068

    "Mr Musk also cited risks surrounding the UK's exit from the EU for his decision, according to AutoExpress.
    "Brexit [uncertainty] made it too risky to put a Gigafactory in the UK," he told the trade magazine."

    See what you have lost us, Remainers, with all your dicking around.....
    IF BJ and the ERG had backed the WA earlier this year you might have valid criticism of Remainer's but they did not. You seem to not understand that leaving the SM and CU puts us at a strategic disadvantage as warned and Brexit means loss of investment due to unfetted access being withdrawn. I am beginning to worry about your ability to grasp reality in your political views... :smile:
    Remaining in a Customs Union puts us at a massive strategic disadvantage. Though I agree it would be better to stay in the SM.
    The customs union does in terms of being able to negotiate trade deals but I was just saying you cannot really blame remainer's for companies choosing not to invest here when we are leaving both. It is a product of Leaving!
    Nope being in a CU is far worse than just not being able to negotiate trade deals (actually we would be able to do our own trade deals but no one would want to in those circumstances).

    It puts us at a disastrously competitive disadvantage with every state that has a trade deal with the EU as they can sell into the UK tariff free without reciprocal rights for our businesses.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721

    'Berlin rocks,' says Elon Musk as he chooses European factory
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50400068

    "Mr Musk also cited risks surrounding the UK's exit from the EU for his decision, according to AutoExpress.
    "Brexit [uncertainty] made it too risky to put a Gigafactory in the UK," he told the trade magazine."

    See what you have lost us, Remainers, with all your dicking around.....
    IF BJ and the ERG had backed the WA earlier this year you might have valid criticism of Remainer's but they did not. You seem to not understand that leaving the SM and CU puts us at a strategic disadvantage as warned and Brexit means loss of investment due to unfetted access being withdrawn. I am beginning to worry about your ability to grasp reality in your political views... :smile:
    Remaining in a Customs Union puts us at a massive strategic disadvantage. Though I agree it would be better to stay in the SM.
    The customs union does in terms of being able to negotiate trade deals but I was just saying you cannot really blame remainer's for companies choosing not to invest here when we are leaving both. It is a product of Leaving!
    You seem to forget the Brexiteer truth: all adverse effects of Brexit are the fault of the people who voted against it!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236
    MTimT said:

    One of the world's under-appreciated wonders ...

    It's very atmospheric. A bit other wordly. When I drove through it I felt I should keep going, not park and get out, lest "something" happened.
  • Foxy said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Genuinely, who now cares how he votes?
    Around 8% of the polling public?
    I doubt it. But we shall see on election night.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Surely most people who support the rule of law and oppose extra-judicial killings would agree with Corbyn on this. Better to arrest people and subject them to a fair trial followed by a suitable punishment if possible. Note the if possible. Maybe it wasn't possible this time. If you read what Corbyn actually said as opposed to the hysterical right wing over reaction to it then it looks quite reasonable, as is so often the case. I am no fan of Corbyn but Woodcock is ridiculous.
    Yeah, he avoided talking specifically about the Baghdadi case, speaking mostly in general terms and principles. He specifically said he did not know enough about the Baghdadi case to know if it would have been possible. Taken as a whole, it was a reasonable response.
  • dr_spyn said:
    How have they behaved this week that is different to how they behave any other week?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    viewcode said:

    Oh come on. Pull the other one.
    Indeed. Lacking a climax.
    The usual incontinent spaffing from Johnson.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721
    edited November 2019

    Foxy said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Genuinely, who now cares how he votes?
    Around 8% of the polling public?
    I doubt it. But we shall see on election night.
    It won't be 8% on Election night, considering they are not standing in so many seats, but that is the present polling.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    kinabalu said:

    MTimT said:

    One of the world's under-appreciated wonders ...

    It's very atmospheric. A bit other wordly. When I drove through it I felt I should keep going, not park and get out, lest "something" happened.
    LOL. One of my favorite places. But then I love the desolation and isolation of deserts too.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213

    dr_spyn said:
    How have they behaved this week that is different to how they behave any other week?
    What is Farage's constituency ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    Sean_F said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Winter is coming! Specifically, Dartmoor is white with snow (or was until it got dark half an hour ago). And polling day is 4 weeks deeper into it.

    Dartmoor must get freezing.
    I am at exactly half the maximum height on Dartmoor.

    We are 5 miles inland - we get the wet. Dartmoor has a climate all of its own.
  • dr_spyn said:
    Irrelevant attention seeker. Should simply be ignored for now.
    He had a strong hand. He threw it away. The man is an irrelevance.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Genuinely, who now cares how he votes?
    Around 8% of the polling public?
    I doubt it. But we shall see on election night.
    It won't be 8% on Election night, considering they are not standing in so many seats, but that is the present polling.
    I doubt even most of those 8% care how he will vote given he has apparently upset a fair few of them by standing down in Tory seats. Really you credit him with far more influence than he deserves these days.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    HYUFD said:

    It's strange how many PB posters seem convinced that Labour are definitely set to close their present gap behind the Tories and that this has already commenced, yet both both the spread-betting firms offering GE seats are today showing the Tories at a new high.

    Hes not going to close it. Or at least not by enough...
    He needs the LDs vote to collapse again in his favour, less likely this time given the LDs are taking a much harder pro Remain line and a big manifesto gaffe again from the Tories, unlikely as Boris will run a more populist campaign than May.

    If not Labour is sleepwalking to a 1983 style wipeout if Yougov is correct
    For once I agree with you I think sub 185 if they are lucky. There is too much going against them. The one issue not yet highlighted is a return to early 70’s trade union rights. If you can stomach that, the nationalization, the leader and the spending plans then anyone who doesn’t want a Tory or labour robot needs to look elsewhere.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edited November 2019
    kinabalu said:

    MTimT said:

    One of the world's under-appreciated wonders ...

    It's very atmospheric. A bit other wordly. When I drove through it I felt I should keep going, not park and get out, lest "something" happened.
    As an afternote, my father was a teenager at school on the outskirts of Plymouth (Plympton Grammar, a 30 minute walk from the first cattle grids onto Dartmoor) in the run up to D-Day. Large contingents of the US army were based in South Devon training for amphibian landings. An officer from Texas gave a talk at the school, bragging, as Texans are wont to do, about Texas and its scale. At which point one wag in the class asked, all innocence "Are there any large open spaces in Texas, like Dartmoor?"
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    dr_spyn said:
    Irrelevant attention seeker. Should simply be ignored for now.
    He had a strong hand. He threw it away. The man is an irrelevance.
    He won't even get a peerage now.... :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    Pulpstar said:

    dr_spyn said:
    How have they behaved this week that is different to how they behave any other week?
    What is Farage's constituency ?
    Thanet?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    dr_spyn said:
    Irrelevant attention seeker. Should simply be ignored for now.
    Funny to see Farage rowing backwards as fast as he can. I presume he just realised he won't get in ANY debates if he is a second Tory advocate on the show!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's strange how many PB posters seem convinced that Labour are definitely set to close their present gap behind the Tories and that this has already commenced, yet both both the spread-betting firms offering GE seats are today showing the Tories at a new high.

    Hes not going to close it. Or at least not by enough...
    He needs the LDs vote to collapse again in his favour, less likely this time given the LDs are taking a much harder pro Remain line and a big manifesto gaffe again from the Tories, unlikely as Boris will run a more populist campaign than May.

    If not Labour is sleepwalking to a 1983 style wipeout if Yougov is correct
    For once I agree with you I think sub 185 if they are lucky. There is too much going against them. The one issue not yet highlighted is a return to early 70’s trade union rights. If you can stomach that, the nationalization, the leader and the spending plans then anyone who doesn’t want a Tory or labour robot needs to look elsewhere.
    If the LD vote holds up and the Brexit Party vote holds up in Labour seats Corbyn is screwed as I cannot see any current Tory voters now voting Corbyn Labour
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited November 2019
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Yes it's refreshing for Jeremy not to pander to people and instead state unequivocally what he believes about any issue.

    How craven and weaselly it would be for a politician, especially one leading a national party, not to tell people what he thought or believed on any particular issue.

    You are of course referring to Brexit.

    I doubt that he has a strong preference between the 2 Labour options of (i) Leave but in a way that is tantamount to Remaining or (ii) Actually Remaining.

    And if that is the case - after all there is not much between those options - why should he pretend to have a passionate view merely to satisfy those who want the nation to be artificially polarized?

    Again, I think, he is occupying the higher ground here. Although it might well be that he is not rewarded for it at the ballot box.
    It is the most important issue facing the country right now. And he isn't expressing an opinion because that would be satisfying "those who want the nation to be artificially polarised"?

    Genuine LOL. He is supposed to be the leader of one of the main political parties.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    HYUFD said:
    Go Boris.

    Awful for Swinson. As I have reported finding on the doorstep.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited November 2019
    HYUFD said:
    Odds on Tories 43% Labour 24% LDs 24% on that poll if party votes reflect leader approval?
  • Pulpstar said:

    dr_spyn said:
    How have they behaved this week that is different to how they behave any other week?
    What is Farage's constituency ?
    Bromley and Chislehurst?
  • The bus.....

    https://twitter.com/patrick_kidd/status/1194668375882031106?s=20

    Pulpstar said:

    God bless Corbyn, not letting the election get in the way of his principles :D
    how do you arrest someone after they have been killed by the US?
    He wasn't killed by the US.

    He blew himself up - with two of his young children.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    HYUFD said:
    Go Boris.

    Awful for Swinson. As I have reported finding on the doorstep.....
    Though even more awful for Corbyn
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited November 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dr_spyn said:
    How have they behaved this week that is different to how they behave any other week?
    What is Farage's constituency ?
    Thanet?
    We won’t know until the gravity challenged lady sings
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited November 2019
    Welcome to the first exciting episode of garden placard watch from Norwich South.
    Labour have been delivering/planting their new I'm voting for Clive Lewis placards. Had a long wander about looking and honestly they have good coverage but at the moment a bit down on the numbers I'd expect. I'll get a better idea once the greens and LDs get going on it but back of fag packet on my patented placard pick is a Lewis hold on under 50% vote share. Possibly sub 40%. No chance of him losing here unless the more outer and Uni parts absolutely abandon him en masse
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Go Boris.

    Awful for Swinson. As I have reported finding on the doorstep.....
    Though even more awful for Corbyn
    Actually a significant up tick on the graph, though still 4 weeks to make the ground up.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    HYUFD said:
    Nice. Interesting that the Boris-Corbyn gap has remained static, or even widened slightly, as they've both moved up.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    dr_spyn said:
    How have they behaved this week that is different to how they behave any other week?
    What is Farage's constituency ?
    Thanet?
    We won’t know until the gravity challenged lady sings
    Unless he moves pdq to a Labour constituency (And I don't think he'd have time to reregister etc now) journalists/twitter can have oodles of fun with "Mr Farage, who will you be voting for ?"

    Normally such an easy question for a party leader to answer...
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    kinabalu said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Winter is coming! Specifically, Dartmoor is white with snow (or was until it got dark half an hour ago). And polling day is 4 weeks deeper into it.

    Is that where you live? Dartmoor?
    Yes.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,119
    edited November 2019
    Boris speech to the car workers in Rugby just now was one of his best, but Tom Newton Dunn provided the big moment. He asked Boris if he had meant to suggest Corbyn was a 'masturbator' with which the whole factory collapsed in mirth. Boris gave it time to sink in then quipped it may have been in a 'first draft'' but that it had disappeared into the ether and it went down a storm.

    Shortly after as Boris concluded, the factory floor erupted to their feet applauding and laughing

    Boy, does Boris do charisma
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's strange how many PB posters seem convinced that Labour are definitely set to close their present gap behind the Tories and that this has already commenced, yet both both the spread-betting firms offering GE seats are today showing the Tories at a new high.

    Hes not going to close it. Or at least not by enough...
    He needs the LDs vote to collapse again in his favour, less likely this time given the LDs are taking a much harder pro Remain line and a big manifesto gaffe again from the Tories, unlikely as Boris will run a more populist campaign than May.

    If not Labour is sleepwalking to a 1983 style wipeout if Yougov is correct
    For once I agree with you I think sub 185 if they are lucky. There is too much going against them. The one issue not yet highlighted is a return to early 70’s trade union rights. If you can stomach that, the nationalization, the leader and the spending plans then anyone who doesn’t want a Tory or labour robot needs to look elsewhere.
    If the LD vote holds up and the Brexit Party vote holds up in Labour seats Corbyn is screwed as I cannot see any current Tory voters now voting Corbyn Labour
    You have to be a very detatched Conservative voter indeed to consider voting Labour ths time.

    Interesting that of all the Departed MPs, none has gone over to the Dark Side.....nor even recommended lending Corbyn your vote.
  • On Tories and election campaigns the last decent one was probably GE2015 (although it didn’t feel like it at the time as the polls never moved).

    Before that it really was GE1983. I can’t think of a single one between that and GE2015 that felt good, except for some moments of brilliance in the last week or so of GE1992.

    This time round the Tories are ok - or as good as can be expected: they’ve moved quickly to muzzle and deal with rogues (like JRM) and have a decent social media operation.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875

    Boris speech to the car workers in Rugby just now was one of his best, but Tom Newton Dunn provided the big moment. He asked Boris if he had meant to suggest Corbyn was a 'masturbator' with which the whole factory collapsed in mirth. Boris gave it time to sink in then quipped it may have been in a 'first draft'' but that it had disappeared into the ether and it went down a storm.

    Shortly after as Boris concluded, the factory floor erupted to their feet applauding and laughing

    Boy, does Boris do charisma

    Go on, Boris! :smiley:

    And ON ANd ON ANd ON ANd ON ANd ON ANd ON ANd...

  • The Tory social media strategy this time is really very clever.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    HYUFD said:
    Go Boris.

    Awful for Swinson. As I have reported finding on the doorstep.....
    Your fixation with Swinson betrays the fears of so many Conservatives. As I have said before, the LD performance will vary greatly by seat and region. In most of the North and Midlands (excepting a few well known seats) they will be an irrelevance and may perform more poorly than suggested by the polls. In London and large parts of the Home Counties they are going to deliver some awful shocks to the Conservatives. Never extrapolate local doorstep blather to the whole country (if I did that based on Guildford the Conservatives would be lucky to keep a seat in the south).
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,710
    Laura K report at beginning of BBC1 6pm News - at least 80% of it was Laura K talking - with very brief clips of politicians dotted around within it.

    I seriously reckon that if just 10 mins later you asked everyone who watched it what Laura K had said at least 90% of people wouldn't remember a single thing other than "she was talking about the election".

    The whole thing was in one ear out the other ear stuff.

    The contrast with John Cole 30 years ago is huge - in those days Cole said a few words and most of the report was listening to the politicians - which gave the public a chance to assess the politicians.

    In contrast Laura K talking in very general terms achieves absolutely nothing.
  • HYUFD said:
    Go Boris.

    Awful for Swinson. As I have reported finding on the doorstep.....
    Swinson isn’t even converting her base of those who are already sympathetic to her.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213

    Boris speech to the car workers in Rugby just now was one of his best, but Tom Newton Dunn provided the big moment. He asked Boris if he had meant to suggest Corbyn was a 'masturbator' with which the whole factory collapsed in mirth. Boris gave it time to sink in then quipped it may have been in a 'first draft'' but that it had disappeared into the ether and it went down a storm.

    Shortly after as Boris concluded, the factory floor erupted to their feet applauding and laughing

    Boy, does Boris do charisma

    There'll barely be a Labour voter amongst the factory floor workers there I reckon. Tory seat, C2 skilled manual demographic - very anti-Corbyn.
  • Surprised Swinson's doing so poorly.

    Hmm.
  • HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's strange how many PB posters seem convinced that Labour are definitely set to close their present gap behind the Tories and that this has already commenced, yet both both the spread-betting firms offering GE seats are today showing the Tories at a new high.

    Hes not going to close it. Or at least not by enough...
    He needs the LDs vote to collapse again in his favour, less likely this time given the LDs are taking a much harder pro Remain line and a big manifesto gaffe again from the Tories, unlikely as Boris will run a more populist campaign than May.

    If not Labour is sleepwalking to a 1983 style wipeout if Yougov is correct
    For once I agree with you I think sub 185 if they are lucky. There is too much going against them. The one issue not yet highlighted is a return to early 70’s trade union rights. If you can stomach that, the nationalization, the leader and the spending plans then anyone who doesn’t want a Tory or labour robot needs to look elsewhere.
    If the LD vote holds up and the Brexit Party vote holds up in Labour seats Corbyn is screwed as I cannot see any current Tory voters now voting Corbyn Labour
    My sense is that Tory Remainers think Boris is a bit of a twat, and have serious doubts about his Brexit Deal, but think on balance Brexit has to be followed through and tried now and he’s infinitely preferable to Corbyn.

    The Lib Dems aren’t convincing them. For one thing they’re just proposing cliched old soft-Left LD policies (including higher taxes to pay for them) and they’re not clear that Jo Swinson won’t end up propping up a left-wing Labour Government anyway. Despite what she says.
  • MikeL said:

    Laura K report at beginning of BBC1 6pm News - at least 80% of it was Laura K talking - with very brief clips of politicians dotted around within it.

    I seriously reckon that if just 10 mins later you asked everyone who watched it what Laura K had said at least 90% of people wouldn't remember a single thing other than "she was talking about the election".

    The whole thing was in one ear out the other ear stuff.

    The contrast with John Cole 30 years ago is huge - in those days Cole said a few words and most of the report was listening to the politicians - which gave the public a chance to assess the politicians.

    In contrast Laura K talking in very general terms achieves absolutely nothing.

    She’s a hopeless journalist. But that is not why the state employs her.
  • Being objective as I can be on trade unions I think the RMT and CWU are exploiting a near monopoly position to get extra benefits for their members at the expense of the public.

    Conversely, I think workers for Amazon and Asda may well have a legitimate grievance.
  • Mr. L, whilst I dislike that approach to reporting (rather than showing) what politicians have said, it's far from unique to her, or the BBC, alas.
  • Welcome to the first exciting episode of garden placard watch from Norwich South.
    Labour have been delivering/planting their new I'm voting for Clive Lewis placards. Had a long wander about looking and honestly they have good coverage but at the moment a bit down on the numbers I'd expect. I'll get a better idea once the greens and LDs get going on it but back of fag packet on my patented placard pick is a Lewis hold on under 50% vote share. Possibly sub 40%. No chance of him losing here unless the more outer and Uni parts absolutely abandon him en masse

    Blimey. And people worry about Scottish sub-samples as a prediction tool?! 😆

  • Being objective as I can be on trade unions I think the RMT and CWU are exploiting a near monopoly position to get extra benefits for their members at the expense of the public.

    Conversely, I think workers for Amazon and Asda may well have a legitimate grievance.

    I agree with you
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Surprised Swinson's doing so poorly.

    Hmm.

    Yes terrible that she only has the second best ratings, she should stand down and leave the field to the other three onanists ( a word 90% of the population have never heard)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's strange how many PB posters seem convinced that Labour are definitely set to close their present gap behind the Tories and that this has already commenced, yet both both the spread-betting firms offering GE seats are today showing the Tories at a new high.

    Hes not going to close it. Or at least not by enough...
    He needs the LDs vote to collapse again in his favour, less likely this time given the LDs are taking a much harder pro Remain line and a big manifesto gaffe again from the Tories, unlikely as Boris will run a more populist campaign than May.

    If not Labour is sleepwalking to a 1983 style wipeout if Yougov is correct
    For once I agree with you I think sub 185 if they are lucky. There is too much going against them. The one issue not yet highlighted is a return to early 70’s trade union rights. If you can stomach that, the nationalization, the leader and the spending plans then anyone who doesn’t want a Tory or labour robot needs to look elsewhere.
    If the LD vote holds up and the Brexit Party vote holds up in Labour seats Corbyn is screwed as I cannot see any current Tory voters now voting Corbyn Labour
    My sense is that Tory Remainers think Boris is a bit of a twat, and have serious doubts about his Brexit Deal, but think on balance Brexit has to be followed through and tried now and he’s infinitely preferable to Corbyn.

    The Lib Dems aren’t convincing them. For one thing they’re just proposing cliched old soft-Left LD policies (including higher taxes to pay for them) and they’re not clear that Jo Swinson won’t end up propping up a left-wing Labour Government anyway. Despite what she says.
    Absolute rubbish: Boris is a huge twat.

    Other than that, yep just about spot on.
  • nichomar said:

    Surprised Swinson's doing so poorly.

    Hmm.

    Yes terrible that she only has the second best ratings, she should stand down and leave the field to the other three onanists ( a word 90% of the population have never heard)
    Boris has just lifted that percentage by some distance
  • alb1on said:

    HYUFD said:
    Go Boris.

    Awful for Swinson. As I have reported finding on the doorstep.....
    Your fixation with Swinson betrays the fears of so many Conservatives. As I have said before, the LD performance will vary greatly by seat and region. In most of the North and Midlands (excepting a few well known seats) they will be an irrelevance and may perform more poorly than suggested by the polls. In London and large parts of the Home Counties they are going to deliver some awful shocks to the Conservatives. Never extrapolate local doorstep blather to the whole country (if I did that based on Guildford the Conservatives would be lucky to keep a seat in the south).
    I think the LD strategy is one that works - and is self-reinforced - in the Westminster bubble amongst the wonks, politicians, journalists and commentariat who all circulate there.

    Not only do they often socialise with each other they’re often on the same WhatsApp groups.

    That’s why Sam Gyimah, Philip Lee, Matthew Paris, Michael Heseltine and Jo Johnson have all reached similar conclusions.
This discussion has been closed.