You have to seriously be prepared to threaten to walk away with no deal in order to get a good deal, that doesn't mean you intend no deal.
Just the same as you spend on your military in order to have peace. The Romans had an expression: Si vis pacem, para bellum that logic was known thousands of years ago is still relevant today.
PS if you wanted no deal you wouldn't threaten it, you'd just prepare for it and walk away without engaging in negotiations.
I don't think your second paragraph is consistent with the third. We are prepared for war - or at least we hope we do. We buy equipment, hold reviews, upgrade kit, hold exercises. We are not prepared for no deal - the operations are mounted half heartedly and then cancelled. The Latin tag is not "Si vis pacem, pretendum para bellum with mop".
But that's the point Brexiteers are making. We need someone like Boris to be PM who will seriously prepare for No Deal not 'Foolish Remainers' like Hammond and May who terminally weakened the UK's negotiating position when they were in power.
Boris achieved in his deal concessions the EU always said were impossible while we were led by May and Hammond. Funny that!
Yes, the concessions were impossible because May wouldn't agree to a border in the Irish Sea. When Johnson rolled over on that, the EU were quite content to craft a deal that closely reflected their opening negotiating position and reversed the EU concession (full UK backstop) that May had negotiated.
Maybe not quite what you meant, but negotiating by threatening to shoot yourself in the head if the other side doesn't give what you want does not become more compelling because you've written up your will and made the funeral arrangements.
But that deal had no democratic control in it. In fact we were repeatedly told that there could be no unilateral exit from the backstop or there was no backstop. Plus in the original deal NI wouldn't have benefited from the UK's trade deals while under Boris's deal it does. So two pretty massive changes from the original proposal.
But absolutely it was a great idea to junk Theresa May's ludicrous concessions and go back to a saner starting point.
The skill of Johnson has not been in how he has played the EU but in how he has played the internal politics of the Tory Party and has manipulated domestic Leaver sentiment. Your post is a prime example of how superbly he has done the latter in particular.
Definitely think Labour are having the better campaign (again), they are leading the news agenda every day (not always for negative reasons) and the Tory poll lead is trending smaller, however gradual. Two weeks since the election passed through the HoC and still waiting for the Tories to move onto the front foot. Maybe they're backloading everything.
Does backloading actually work? The evidence seems to say not. And why not have enough material to load the whole campaign equally - it's only 5 weeks, FGS!
No, I don't think it works, and I personally think the Tories' distinctly underwhelming campaign so far is not part of some grand design, CCHQ is just crap, as shown in 2017. I'd be very worried that with four weeks *still* to go, the lead is shrinking bit by bit. Have the Tories got anything that can change the narrative? After 9 years in power it's very difficult to get a hearing with the electorate.
The Tory lead is NOT shrinking according to the latest poll. Jesus!
To be fair, YouGov is our best poll. Survation has 6, a couple more have 8s, Kantar's adjusted us down to 10. Why can't we hold at a particular level?
Sampling variation covers +- a couple of percent between polls.
This election is impossible to poll. It had a dry run, now the electorate are ready for the first night. The play is called TV. Labour cannot get within 6 or 7 of Tory’s in poll with their voters and even party members determined to vote Remain Alliance where it matters. And, considering how anger at Canterbury excandidate taken to the torture room appears to be growing, the same in reverse.
What do people expect to happen in the event of a hung parliament, with Labour (or tories) needing SNP and Lib Dem support to form a government? Seems like there are several options, some more plausible than others:
1. Lab minority government, would require Swinson to either vote for Corbyn or possibly abstain depending on the numbers. Would guarantee ref2, would Swinson also demand electoral reform to PR as price of support (she should).
2. Swinson sticks to her word and votes against Corbyn government, could lead to either 2a, alternative GNU caretaker type proposed and Labour MPs decide en masse to support it, would probably need Corbyns tacit approval to have numbers. If Corbyn goes backwards in the election then he will have very little clout so this could well happen 2b, no alternative emerges so second election needed in mid January (probably leading to tory majority)
3. Swinson supports a Tory minority government ine xchange for ref2 on Boris deal - is there any world in which this could happen?
1 seems by far the most likely to me, but many seem to think Swinson really won't allow a Corbyn government even if that's the only route to ref2
Good question. On the face of it Swinson won't support anyone, being totally anti Tory and anti Corbyn. However in any scenario whatever apart from Tory working majority (the more likely outcome) the broad Remain factions will unite in some way to ensure their remain prize.
If the only option on the numbers is a deal with Boris the LDs will try it - based on Ref2. (Ditto with Labour.) For Boris to have to rely on the LDs (SNP - don't even think about it) could be Boris's extraordinary stroke of luck as he could find a way of Remaining without taking responsibility for it and staying PM for now as well. As at heart Boris is (IMHO) a Remainer he would find this interesting. He does give the appearance of being a lucky general; perhaps this will continue.
If of course he wins a working majority he will, on the face of things, have to continue his impossible policy of leaving under his deal, and completing by the end of 2020. Escaping from that would be harder, but given his record not impossible.
You have to seriously be prepared to threaten to walk away with no deal in order to get a good deal, that doesn't mean you intend no deal.
Just the same as you spend on your military in order to have peace. The Romans had an expression: Si vis pacem, para bellum that logic was known thousands of years ago is still relevant today.
PS if you wanted no deal you wouldn't threaten it, you'd just prepare for it and walk away without engaging in negotiations.
I don't think your second paragraph is consistent with the third. We are prepared for war - or at least we hope we do. We buy equipment, hold reviews, upgrade kit, hold exercises. We are not prepared for no deal - the operations are mounted half heartedly and then cancelled. The Latin tag is not "Si vis pacem, pretendum para bellum with mop".
But that's the point Brexiteers are making. We need someone like Boris to be PM who will seriously prepare for No Deal not 'Foolish Remainers' like Hammond and May who terminally weakened the UK's negotiating position when they were in power.
Boris achieved in his deal concessions the EU always said were impossible while we were led by May and Hammond. Funny that!
But Boris isn't and hasn't seriously prepared for No Deal.
You have to seriously be prepared to threaten to walk away with no deal in order to get a good deal, that doesn't mean you intend no deal.
Just the same as you spend on your military in order to have peace. The Romans had an expression: Si vis pacem, para bellum that logic was known thousands of years ago is still relevant today.
PS if you wanted no deal you wouldn't threaten it, you'd just prepare for it and walk away without engaging in negotiations.
I don't think your second paragraph is consistent with the third. We are prepared for war - or at least we hope we do. We buy equipment, hold reviews, upgrade kit, hold exercises. We are not prepared for no deal - the operations are mounted half heartedly and then cancelled. The Latin tag is not "Si vis pacem, pretendum para bellum with mop".
But that's the point Brexiteers are making. We need someone like Boris to be PM who will seriously prepare for No Deal not 'Foolish Remainers' like Hammond and May who terminally weakened the UK's negotiating position when they were in power.
Boris achieved in his deal concessions the EU always said were impossible while we were led by May and Hammond. Funny that!
He gave the concessions. he threw his Northern Ireland DUP "friends" under a bus. The "deal" is otherwise exactly the same as TMay's. Only fanboys like you can't see it because you so want to love him
Bollocks. If you can't see a difference I'll state them and ask 3 simple Yes or No questions.
1: Johnson's deal has GB out of NI's customs territory. Did May's deal? Yes or No. 2: Johnson's deal has NI benefiting from UK's trade deals. Did May's deal? Yes or No. 3: Johnson's deal has NI voters having a unilateral exit mechanism to vote their way out unilaterally from the special arrangements if that is what NI's voters wish to do. Did May's deal? Yes or No.
Johnson pulling out of the TV debates would be a very stupid thing to do. Imagine the look if the BBC or ITV empty chaired him in front of the entire nation. Of course it's a risk doing them when you have a poll lead and the other fella has more or less nothing to lose. So what? Boris is a risk taker, and if you cast your minds back to 2016 and that rallying speech he gave, he tipped the result for Leave single handedly. I think people are greatly underestimating him and somewhat overestimating Corbyn in the TV debates.
Here's the scenario -
'Mr Johnson, describe your Brexit strategy in one sentence' Mr Johnson - 'Get Brexit Done' Mr Corbyn, describe your Brexit strategy in one sentence' 'Well personally I don't have a view either way, we'll renegotiate with the EU, offer another referendum with 2 Remain options on the ballot paper.........'
@HYUFD bold predictions here quite the contrast to the majority of Tories posting here almost soiling themselves about the chances of Corbyn in No 10
Thy are just ramping thinking they can scare the lib dems on here to vote Tory or are practicing their attack lines for the next leaflet.
PB is having a fantastic General Election, but as a blog contributors are beginning to silo now, by that I mean Torys replying to Torys, Labour replying to Labour, like a collection of little bubbles, in a way mirroring how the newspapers give up on truth in this war, everything the other lot suggest is wrong and pounced on cat to mouse and ripped apart; which is of course stupid, LibDems and Labour have both had good things to say about retraining and reskilling for the changing economy and world of work, but Torygraph and their responding bubble on here see nothing but wrongness in the ideas. Likewise the Tories have come up with good positive suggestions.
You have to seriously be prepared to threaten to walk away with no deal in order to get a good deal, that doesn't mean you intend no deal.
Just the same as you spend on your military in order to have peace. The Romans had an expression: Si vis pacem, para bellum that logic was known thousands of years ago is still relevant today.
PS if you wanted no deal you wouldn't threaten it, you'd just prepare for it and walk away without engaging in negotiations.
I don't think your second paragraph is consistent with the third. We are prepared for war - or at least we hope we do. We buy equipment, hold reviews, upgrade kit, hold exercises. We are not prepared for no deal - the operations are mounted half heartedly and then cancelled. The Latin tag is not "Si vis pacem, pretendum para bellum with mop".
But that's the point Brexiteers are making. We need someone like Boris to be PM who will seriously prepare for No Deal not 'Foolish Remainers' like Hammond and May who terminally weakened the UK's negotiating position when they were in power.
Boris achieved in his deal concessions the EU always said were impossible while we were led by May and Hammond. Funny that!
Yes, the concessions were impossible because May wouldn't agree to a border in the Irish Sea. When Johnson rolled over on that, the EU were quite content to craft a deal that closely reflected their opening negotiating position and reversed the EU concession (full UK backstop) that May had negotiated.
Maybe not quite what you meant, but negotiating by threatening to shoot yourself in the head if the other side doesn't give what you want does not become more compelling because you've written up your will and made the funeral arrangements.
More fault May. She screwed up.
The EU demanded unacceptably that 3% of the UK's population be stuck in the EU's customs territory with no unilateral exit and May "negotiated" that instead that apply to 100%. What the actual fudge how is that a concession by the EU?
Johnson pared it back to the 3% and insisted that could only continue if the voters voted for it to continue. Which makes it their choice, fair enough.
Infinitely better for NI to choose to have special arrangements or not, than to have all the UK stuck with no unilateral exit.
What do people expect to happen in the event of a hung parliament, with Labour (or tories) needing SNP and Lib Dem support to form a government? Seems like there are several options, some more plausible than others:
1. Lab minority government, would require Swinson to either vote for Corbyn or possibly abstain depending on the numbers. Would guarantee ref2, would Swinson also demand electoral reform to PR as price of support (she should).
2. Swinson sticks to her word and votes against Corbyn government, could lead to either 2a, alternative GNU caretaker type proposed and Labour MPs decide en masse to support it, would probably need Corbyns tacit approval to have numbers. If Corbyn goes backwards in the election then he will have very little clout so this could well happen 2b, no alternative emerges so second election needed in mid January (probably leading to tory majority)
3. Swinson supports a Tory minority government ine xchange for ref2 on Boris deal - is there any world in which this could happen?
1 seems by far the most likely to me, but many seem to think Swinson really won't allow a Corbyn government even if that's the only route to ref2
1 if it can be done by abstaining. If it needs an active vote, then I'm not sure. I can imagine abstain and let Corbyn fail to form a government and then push for replacement candidate, if that's doable. If not, is there anything to stop Corbyn trying again in the 14 days before another election? Maybe vote for Corbyn at second time (after someone else has had a go and failed at GNU) to get referendum on Brexit. Surely going in to another election immediately having failed to vote in a way to potentially stop Brexit is worse for LD politically than having another election in maybe up to 5 years time having reluctantly put Corbyn in number 10, maybe stopped Brexit and maybe have brought Corbyn down after stopping Brexit?
Presumably though, if Conservative biggest party they'll have first go at confidence vote? But surely fails due to lack of allies.
For once I think Sanders has a lot to be happy about.
There are potentially two or three more candidates contemplating entering the Dem primary.
Deval Patrick, Michael Bloomberg and, somehow, Hillary Clinton.
Deval Patrick seems like he'd do well with college educated whites and african american voters: enough to win, probably not, but enough to hurt Warren, Buttigieg or Biden, possibly.
Bloomberg will have no grass root support, but will make donors less likely to give to anyone, because he can just splash cash. But I wonder if this helps Bernie as having an out of touch billionaire literally on the stage / cohort is just a gift.
Hillary... god knows. I always thought she wouldn't run again, because why would you, but why be so candid about other things and coy about this? I can only see her hurting the other moderates / Warren, and boosting Bernie.
Also, Bernie's numbers aren't too bad, his fundraising is still going strong (Biden's not so much, and Buttigieg is almost solely dependent on big donors), and his support amongst Latinos makes him surprisingly strong in southern states. I also think he can do better amongst african american voters if Biden slips, whereas Buttigieg is not and will not catch on within that community.
Warren still seems favourite in my mind, as the Dem establishment hate Bernie and would be loath to compromise to him, whereas they would be willing to have Warren, whereas the leftish base of the Dem party would accept either Warren or Bernie (I think). Also interesting that moderate Dems whose 1st choice is Biden tend to have Bernie as their second choice, so it's not clear anyone but Bernie would benefit from Biden bombing.
What do people expect to happen in the event of a hung parliament, with Labour (or tories) needing SNP and Lib Dem support to form a government? Seems like there are several options, some more plausible than others:
1. Lab minority government, would require Swinson to either vote for Corbyn or possibly abstain depending on the numbers. Would guarantee ref2, would Swinson also demand electoral reform to PR as price of support (she should).
2. Swinson sticks to her word and votes against Corbyn government, could lead to either 2a, alternative GNU caretaker type proposed and Labour MPs decide en masse to support it, would probably need Corbyns tacit approval to have numbers. If Corbyn goes backwards in the election then he will have very little clout so this could well happen 2b, no alternative emerges so second election needed in mid January (probably leading to tory majority)
3. Swinson supports a Tory minority government ine xchange for ref2 on Boris deal - is there any world in which this could happen?
1 seems by far the most likely to me, but many seem to think Swinson really won't allow a Corbyn government even if that's the only route to ref2
Good question. On the face of it Swinson won't support anyone, being totally anti Tory and anti Corbyn. However in any scenario whatever apart from Tory working majority (the more likely outcome) the broad Remain factions will unite in some way to ensure their remain prize.
If the only option on the numbers is a deal with Boris the LDs will try it - based on Ref2. (Ditto with Labour.) For Boris to have to rely on the LDs (SNP - don't even think about it) could be Boris's extraordinary stroke of luck as he could find a way of Remaining without taking responsibility for it and staying PM for now as well. As at heart Boris is (IMHO) a Remainer he would find this interesting. He does give the appearance of being a lucky general; perhaps this will continue.
If of course he wins a working majority he will, on the face of things, have to continue his impossible policy of leaving under his deal, and completing by the end of 2020. Escaping from that would be harder, but given his record not impossible.
If Boris gets a majority and sticks to leaving by the end of 2020, then we will be heading for a No Deal Brexit yet again.
I've just put some trend lines through the Lab and Con polling numbers from Wikipedia covering the period since the election was called. Both parties vote share increasing, and the gradients of the two trend lines are identical. Gap between the two trend lines is 10.5% (Or 10.52% if Sunil is watching!)
Conclusion: The polls are not narrowing, but there is a squeeze on the other parties. The Farage partial pull-out will of course bugger up the trend!
@HYUFD bold predictions here quite the contrast to the majority of Tories posting here almost soiling themselves about the chances of Corbyn in No 10
Thy are just ramping thinking they can scare the lib dems on here to vote Tory or are practicing their attack lines for the next leaflet.
PB is having a fantastic General Election, but as a blog contributors are beginning to silo now, by that I mean Torys replying to Torys, Labour replying to Labour, like a collection of little bubbles, in a way mirroring how the newspapers give up on truth in this war, everything the other lot suggest is wrong and pounced on cat to mouse and ripped apart; which is of course stupid, LibDems and Labour have both had good things to say about retraining and reskilling for the changing economy and world of work, but Torygraph and their responding bubble on here see nothing but wrongness in the ideas. Likewise the Tories have come up with good positive suggestions.
It's useless saying you've got good things to say about more investment if you're happy to bankrupt the economy. Corbyn and McDonnell not so long ago aspired to an economic model used in Third World Venezuela. Think about that.
I've just put some trend lines through the Lab and Con polling numbers from Wikipedia covering the period since the election was called. Both parties vote share increasing, and the gradients of the two trend lines are identical. Gap between the two trend lines is 10.5% (Or 10.52% if Sunil is watching!)
Conclusion: The polls are not narrowing, but there is a squeeze on the other parties. The Farage partial pull-out will of course bugger up the trend!
Very intrigued to see your working out as Britain elects posted 3 hours ago saying the gap closed by 2.4% over the last week or so
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
Important betting post. I think we can clearly see now how Ruth reached the magic number, catching pollsters by surprise in the last election, and why Tories will do very well in Scotland in this election.
The labour front bench so close to the IRA means the supporter of Republican terror and murder accusation plays very well in Scotland.
Labour down to 1 Tories unchanged. The Billy Boys will see to that 😌
Johnson pulling out of the TV debates would be a very stupid thing to do. Imagine the look if the BBC or ITV empty chaired him in front of the entire nation. Of course it's a risk doing them when you have a poll lead and the other fella has more or less nothing to lose. So what? Boris is a risk taker, and if you cast your minds back to 2016 and that rallying speech he gave, he tipped the result for Leave single handedly. I think people are greatly underestimating him and somewhat overestimating Corbyn in the TV debates.
Here's the scenario -
'Mr Johnson, describe your Brexit strategy in one sentence' Mr Johnson - 'Get Brexit Done' Mr Corbyn, describe your Brexit strategy in one sentence' 'Well personally I don't have a view either way, we'll renegotiate with the EU, offer another referendum with 2 Remain options on the ballot paper.........'
Yup.
"Let The People Decide."
Is what Jeremy would say.
Perhaps drop the "The" if it is decided that 3 words is the most the audience can process without getting a headache.
Definitely think Labour are having the better campaign (again), they are leading the news agenda every day (not always for negative reasons) and the Tory poll lead is trending smaller, however gradual. Two weeks since the election passed through the HoC and still waiting for the Tories to move onto the front foot. Maybe they're backloading everything.
Does backloading actually work? The evidence seems to say not. And why not have enough material to load the whole campaign equally - it's only 5 weeks, FGS!
No, I don't think it works, and I personally think the Tories' distinctly underwhelming campaign so far is not part of some grand design, CCHQ is just crap, as shown in 2017. I'd be very worried that with four weeks *still* to go, the lead is shrinking bit by bit. Have the Tories got anything that can change the narrative? After 9 years in power it's very difficult to get a hearing with the electorate.
The Tory lead is NOT shrinking according to the latest poll. Jesus!
To be fair, YouGov is our best poll. Survation has 6, a couple more have 8s, Kantar's adjusted us down to 10. Why can't we hold at a particular level?
YouGov is the poll that is best for the blues, for sure. But it is also the one that has factored in Brexit Party not standing in Tory held seats. And hasn't altered its methodolgy to guess how certain repondents might vote if they'd given an opinion.
If YouGov shows a massive narrowing of the gap, I'll worry.
Johnson pulling out of the TV debates would be a very stupid thing to do. Imagine the look if the BBC or ITV empty chaired him in front of the entire nation. Of course it's a risk doing them when you have a poll lead and the other fella has more or less nothing to lose. So what? Boris is a risk taker, and if you cast your minds back to 2016 and that rallying speech he gave, he tipped the result for Leave single handedly. I think people are greatly underestimating him and somewhat overestimating Corbyn in the TV debates.
Here's the scenario -
'Mr Johnson, describe your Brexit strategy in one sentence' Mr Johnson - 'Get Brexit Done' Mr Corbyn, describe your Brexit strategy in one sentence' 'Well personally I don't have a view either way, we'll renegotiate with the EU, offer another referendum with 2 Remain options on the ballot paper.........'
Yup.
"Let The People Decide."
Is what Jeremy would say.
Perhaps drop the "The" if it is decided that 3 words is the most the audience can process without getting a headache.
"Please Don't Make Me Decide!" would be more honest...
I've just put some trend lines through the Lab and Con polling numbers from Wikipedia covering the period since the election was called. Both parties vote share increasing, and the gradients of the two trend lines are identical. Gap between the two trend lines is 10.5% (Or 10.52% if Sunil is watching!)
Conclusion: The polls are not narrowing, but there is a squeeze on the other parties. The Farage partial pull-out will of course bugger up the trend!
Very intrigued to see your working out as Britain elects posted 3 hours ago saying the gap closed by 2.4% over the last week or so
Here is the data set. I just stuck it into Excel and added trendlines:
Date Con Lab 11–12 Nov 42% 28% 8–11 Nov 39% 31% 6–9 Nov 41% 29% 7–8 Nov 39% 26% 6–8 Nov 35% 29% 6–8 Nov 41% 29% 6–8 Nov 40% 30% 5–8 Nov 37% 29% 5–6 Nov 36% 25% 30 Oct–5 Nov 36% 29% 1–4 Nov 38% 25% 1–4 Nov 38% 31% 31 Oct–2 Nov 40% 28% 30 Oct–1 Nov 42% 26% 30 Oct–1 Nov 39% 27% 30–31 Oct 36% 28% 30–31 Oct 36% 28% 30–31 Oct 40% 29% 29–30 Oct 36% 21% 29–30 Oct 34% 26%
Johnson pulling out of the TV debates would be a very stupid thing to do. Imagine the look if the BBC or ITV empty chaired him in front of the entire nation. Of course it's a risk doing them when you have a poll lead and the other fella has more or less nothing to lose. So what? Boris is a risk taker, and if you cast your minds back to 2016 and that rallying speech he gave, he tipped the result for Leave single handedly. I think people are greatly underestimating him and somewhat overestimating Corbyn in the TV debates.
Here's the scenario -
'Mr Johnson, describe your Brexit strategy in one sentence' Mr Johnson - 'Get Brexit Done' Mr Corbyn, describe your Brexit strategy in one sentence' 'Well personally I don't have a view either way, we'll renegotiate with the EU, offer another referendum with 2 Remain options on the ballot paper.........'
Yup.
"Let The People Decide."
Is what Jeremy would say.
Perhaps drop the "The" if it is decided that 3 words is the most the audience can process without getting a headache.
Let the People Decide but without the deal now backed by most Leavers?
@HYUFD bold predictions here quite the contrast to the majority of Tories posting here almost soiling themselves about the chances of Corbyn in No 10
Thy are just ramping thinking they can scare the lib dems on here to vote Tory or are practicing their attack lines for the next leaflet.
PB is having a fantastic General Election, but as a blog contributors are beginning to silo now, by that I mean Torys replying to Torys, Labour replying to Labour, like a collection of little bubbles, in a way mirroring how the newspapers give up on truth in this war, everything the other lot suggest is wrong and pounced on cat to mouse and ripped apart; which is of course stupid, LibDems and Labour have both had good things to say about retraining and reskilling for the changing economy and world of work, but Torygraph and their responding bubble on here see nothing but wrongness in the ideas. Likewise the Tories have come up with good positive suggestions.
It's useless saying you've got good things to say about more investment if you're happy to bankrupt the economy. Corbyn and McDonnell not so long ago aspired to an economic model used in Third World Venezuela. Think about that.
You could have responded with some of the fine, innovative Conservative policies that deserve a hearing rather than 2016 style project fear. I’m not having a go at you just saying whilst project fear is bombing out there, those with positive differential policies are cutting through.
Creating a case law amnesty for all crimes committed in Northern Ireland during the troubles as Boris has promised can be thoughtfully considered a good progressive policy to get out and sell. Also Priti Patel said we need brexit because EU laws block curry chefs coming from Pakistan, India and Bangladesh. Gotta love curry. Protecting our curry nights with more immigration from Indian sub continent should strongly feature in all elections in this country.
Labour really should pull out of Richmond Park and other LD Tory marginals. It would be the perfect way to pull the carpet out from the Lib Dems by effectively forcing them to either reciprocate or be seen as betraying Remain. A win win for Labour, if LDs reciprocate it ends up more in favour of Labour, and they become seen as the default anti brexit option in vast majority of seats. If Lib Dems still refuse they lose all remain moral high ground. Unfortunately Labour hate the Lib Dems so much they are willing to cut off their nose to spite their face, so it won't happen.
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
I've just put some trend lines through the Lab and Con polling numbers from Wikipedia covering the period since the election was called. Both parties vote share increasing, and the gradients of the two trend lines are identical. Gap between the two trend lines is 10.5% (Or 10.52% if Sunil is watching!)
Conclusion: The polls are not narrowing, but there is a squeeze on the other parties. The Farage partial pull-out will of course bugger up the trend!
Very intrigued to see your working out as Britain elects posted 3 hours ago saying the gap closed by 2.4% over the last week or so
Here is the data set. I just stuck it into Excel and added trendlines:
Date Con Lab 11–12 Nov 42% 28% 8–11 Nov 39% 31% 6–9 Nov 41% 29% 7–8 Nov 39% 26% 6–8 Nov 35% 29% 6–8 Nov 41% 29% 6–8 Nov 40% 30% 5–8 Nov 37% 29% 5–6 Nov 36% 25% 30 Oct–5 Nov 36% 29% 1–4 Nov 38% 25% 1–4 Nov 38% 31% 31 Oct–2 Nov 40% 28% 30 Oct–1 Nov 42% 26% 30 Oct–1 Nov 39% 27% 30–31 Oct 36% 28% 30–31 Oct 36% 28% 30–31 Oct 40% 29% 29–30 Oct 36% 21% 29–30 Oct 34% 26%
I still find this useful, overlays the trend now (since election called) vs 2017.
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
Johnson pulling out of the TV debates would be a very stupid thing to do. Imagine the look if the BBC or ITV empty chaired him in front of the entire nation. Of course it's a risk doing them when you have a poll lead and the other fella has more or less nothing to lose. So what? Boris is a risk taker, and if you cast your minds back to 2016 and that rallying speech he gave, he tipped the result for Leave single handedly. I think people are greatly underestimating him and somewhat overestimating Corbyn in the TV debates.
Here's the scenario -
'Mr Johnson, describe your Brexit strategy in one sentence' Mr Johnson - 'Get Brexit Done' Mr Corbyn, describe your Brexit strategy in one sentence' 'Well personally I don't have a view either way, we'll renegotiate with the EU, offer another referendum with 2 Remain options on the ballot paper.........'
Yup.
"Let The People Decide."
Is what Jeremy would say.
Perhaps drop the "The" if it is decided that 3 words is the most the audience can process without getting a headache.
Let the People Decide but without the deal now backed by most Leavers?
Yes, that's why we vote for things...
And a deal backed by most leavers is not a deal backed by the majority of the country, so it would be a deal without much mandate.
I see the Britain Elects poll tracker has been updated, and shows a 2.4 decrease in the Tory lead over the last eight days.
Conservative supporters shouldn't be downhearted, though. At that rate it would take another 29 days to erode the lead entirely.
I kid you not.
Does that include confected changes to polling part way through the campaign?
As far as I know, it's an average of headline results.
I've seen that there were at least two changes. One apparently decreased the Tory lead by 3 points, and the other increased it by 1 point. If those were the only two pollsters in the tracker, that would account for 1 percentage point of the change in the lead. Given the number of pollsters that are included, it would account for only a fraction of that.
There's nothing to say that trend will continue for the next 29 days. But I think you are clutching at straws if you're trying to deny there has been a shift in the last 8 days.
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
I've just put some trend lines through the Lab and Con polling numbers from Wikipedia covering the period since the election was called. Both parties vote share increasing, and the gradients of the two trend lines are identical. Gap between the two trend lines is 10.5% (Or 10.52% if Sunil is watching!)
Conclusion: The polls are not narrowing, but there is a squeeze on the other parties. The Farage partial pull-out will of course bugger up the trend!
Very intrigued to see your working out as Britain elects posted 3 hours ago saying the gap closed by 2.4% over the last week or so
Here is the data set. I just stuck it into Excel and added trendlines:
Date Con Lab 11–12 Nov 42% 28% 8–11 Nov 39% 31% 6–9 Nov 41% 29% 7–8 Nov 39% 26% 6–8 Nov 35% 29% 6–8 Nov 41% 29% 6–8 Nov 40% 30% 5–8 Nov 37% 29% 5–6 Nov 36% 25% 30 Oct–5 Nov 36% 29% 1–4 Nov 38% 25% 1–4 Nov 38% 31% 31 Oct–2 Nov 40% 28% 30 Oct–1 Nov 42% 26% 30 Oct–1 Nov 39% 27% 30–31 Oct 36% 28% 30–31 Oct 36% 28% 30–31 Oct 40% 29% 29–30 Oct 36% 21% 29–30 Oct 34% 26%
That early on Labour 21 looks like an outlier.
Be interesting to see how it looks with polls taken wholly in November. I'd also be inclined to keep the Survation (?) poll with their consistent basis - which was the same as their previous poll.
Johnson pulling out of the TV debates would be a very stupid thing to do. Imagine the look if the BBC or ITV empty chaired him in front of the entire nation. Of course it's a risk doing them when you have a poll lead and the other fella has more or less nothing to lose. So what? Boris is a risk taker, and if you cast your minds back to 2016 and that rallying speech he gave, he tipped the result for Leave single handedly. I think people are greatly underestimating him and somewhat overestimating Corbyn in the TV debates.
Here's the scenario -
'Mr Johnson, describe your Brexit strategy in one sentence' Mr Johnson - 'Get Brexit Done' Mr Corbyn, describe your Brexit strategy in one sentence' 'Well personally I don't have a view either way, we'll renegotiate with the EU, offer another referendum with 2 Remain options on the ballot paper.........'
Yup.
"Let The People Decide."
Is what Jeremy would say.
Perhaps drop the "The" if it is decided that 3 words is the most the audience can process without getting a headache.
"Thank you Mr Corbyn but what do *you* think? You have views on everything from patient waiting times to the situation in Bolivia. Will you please show some leadership and tell us whether you want to Leave or Remain?"
6 and 14 are the outliers it's 8 to 12%. Sounds and feels right for right now, its come in by maybe 2 to 3 points and we await the BXP effect
I'd caution with two points.
1. Ipsos-MORI were the company with the largest Tory lead since Johnson became leader (17% in their most recent poll) but they haven't conducted a poll in the period after the Commons voted for an election.
2. There seems to be a degree of herding since ComRes (who are at the low end) are still showing a lead greater than they did pre-campaign, while say Opinium (at the high end) are showing a smaller lead.
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
If Boris gets a majority and sticks to leaving by the end of 2020, then we will be heading for a No Deal Brexit yet again.
If he really insists on not extending - which I doubt - I would expect some sort of bare bones deal rather than nothing. It will be interesting to see if Betfair frame a "No Deal in 2020" market. I suspect they won't because "No Deal" will be too difficult to define. What there should be, however, is an "Extend Transition?" market. I will be backing Yes on that if the price is anything better than about 1.5.
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
I mean, the Conservative approach to flooding has been terrible basically since Cameron walked into No 10. They cut so much "red tape" for farmers that flooding was bound to explode.
This article from way back when talks about some of the decisions made at the time:
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
I've just put some trend lines through the Lab and Con polling numbers from Wikipedia covering the period since the election was called. Both parties vote share increasing, and the gradients of the two trend lines are identical. Gap between the two trend lines is 10.5% (Or 10.52% if Sunil is watching!)
Conclusion: The polls are not narrowing, but there is a squeeze on the other parties. The Farage partial pull-out will of course bugger up the trend!
Very intrigued to see your working out as Britain elects posted 3 hours ago saying the gap closed by 2.4% over the last week or so
Here is the data set. I just stuck it into Excel and added trendlines:
Date Con Lab 11–12 Nov 42% 28% 8–11 Nov 39% 31% 6–9 Nov 41% 29% 7–8 Nov 39% 26% 6–8 Nov 35% 29% 6–8 Nov 41% 29% 6–8 Nov 40% 30% 5–8 Nov 37% 29% 5–6 Nov 36% 25% 30 Oct–5 Nov 36% 29% 1–4 Nov 38% 25% 1–4 Nov 38% 31% 31 Oct–2 Nov 40% 28% 30 Oct–1 Nov 42% 26% 30 Oct–1 Nov 39% 27% 30–31 Oct 36% 28% 30–31 Oct 36% 28% 30–31 Oct 40% 29% 29–30 Oct 36% 21% 29–30 Oct 34% 26%
Fascinating - I just plotted those data points for lead size versus time on a graph by hand, and if you exclude the initial 15 and 16 point leads, the trendline is almost horizontal at 9-10 points.
I've just put some trend lines through the Lab and Con polling numbers from Wikipedia covering the period since the election was called. Both parties vote share increasing, and the gradients of the two trend lines are identical. Gap between the two trend lines is 10.5% (Or 10.52% if Sunil is watching!)
Conclusion: The polls are not narrowing, but there is a squeeze on the other parties. The Farage partial pull-out will of course bugger up the trend!
Very intrigued to see your working out as Britain elects posted 3 hours ago saying the gap closed by 2.4% over the last week or so
Here is the data set. I just stuck it into Excel and added trendlines:
Date Con Lab 11–12 Nov 42% 28% 8–11 Nov 39% 31% 6–9 Nov 41% 29% 7–8 Nov 39% 26% 6–8 Nov 35% 29% 6–8 Nov 41% 29% 6–8 Nov 40% 30% 5–8 Nov 37% 29% 5–6 Nov 36% 25% 30 Oct–5 Nov 36% 29% 1–4 Nov 38% 25% 1–4 Nov 38% 31% 31 Oct–2 Nov 40% 28% 30 Oct–1 Nov 42% 26% 30 Oct–1 Nov 39% 27% 30–31 Oct 36% 28% 30–31 Oct 36% 28% 30–31 Oct 40% 29% 29–30 Oct 36% 21% 29–30 Oct 34% 26%
I still find this useful, overlays the trend now (since election called) vs 2017.
How about overlaying the trend vs 2015 or other previous elections? 2017 isn't the only election that has ever occured and the thing that changed 2017 hasn't happened this year which is Labour squeezing the Tory vote in the final 2 weeks of the campaign [after dementia tax]. Minor party squeeze stopped in a few days time according to those lines.
If Boris gets a majority and sticks to leaving by the end of 2020, then we will be heading for a No Deal Brexit yet again.
If he really insists on not extending - which I doubt - I would expect some sort of bare bones deal rather than nothing. It will be interesting to see if Betfair frame a "No Deal in 2020" market. I suspect they won't because "No Deal" will be too difficult to define. What there should be, however, is an "Extend Transition?" market. I will be backing Yes on that if the price is anything better than about 1.5.
Yes. However successful they are at a Final Deal they will nevertheless be talking solidly for the next year and it would be amazing if they didn't have some kind of agreement ready to go by December 2020. The thought that British negotiators wouldn't be engaging their EU counterparts is fanciful.
As to the quality of the deal? I'm sure no one will really care apart from Nigel if he is not too busy worrying about penguin control on the Falkland Islands.
Also living up to my name, but it does seem like 2017 is repeating itself in all too horrific a way, leading to a repeat of the phenomenon that led to a hung Parliament then: an election campaign makes Labour Leavers forget about Brexit and return to their home party, whereas in the same campaign Tory Remainers don't forget about Brexit and don't return home...
ARRGHRGRHRGRHGHRH!
2017 is not repeating itself...
I certainly don't want it to, but (1) The Tory lead started at a much lower level than last time; (2) Labour is already creeping up, with a month left to go; (3) The Lib Dems are being squeezed by Lab; (4) The Lab manifesto will contain enough gigantic giveaways to sway a lot of people; (5) The debates are a wild card, but perhaps the calm reasonableness with which Corbyn spins his utopian dream will be effective; (6) The winning message of "Get Brexit Done" seems to be weakening.
I'm flipping terrified.
Agreed. The debates could be deadly. If Corbyn comes across as a dull-but-dependable time-and-motion inspector - and not the hideous Marxist monster of Daily Express legend - then people might think about giving him ago as opposed to Boris's randomness. I suspect Boris will find an excuse to cancel - the risk is just too great.
Agree all round.
Frankly I'm astonished Johnson is going into the debates. Nothing to gain. Everything to lose.
May was excoriated for dodging them. BJ had little choice.
It's high risk. No Corbyn fan but I think he's good at that kind of thing. Not sure about BJ.
Well I certainly agree it's now too late. Johnson will have to see it through.
If Corbyn can avoid losing his temper it will probably be job done for him and Labour.
I'm expecting them to poll around 33-34%. Somewhere in that ball park, maybe higher.
If he really insists on not extending - which I doubt - I would expect some sort of bare bones deal rather than nothing. It will be interesting to see if Betfair frame a "No Deal in 2020" market. I suspect they won't because "No Deal" will be too difficult to define. What there should be, however, is an "Extend Transition?" market. I will be backing Yes on that if the price is anything better than about 1.5.
The prize is a majority that enables exit through the WA available.
To leavers that is Brexit done because remainers will have failed to overturn the referendum result.
Remainers might get excited about Boris extending next year (no doubt he will) but leavers will just shrug their shoulders.
Politically it makes no sense not to extend regardless of ERG ranting.
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
A meeting would have stopped the flooding for sure. How could he not have a meeting?!
Did I mishear that, or did he say he had "come up to Macclesfield in Derbyshire"?
Perhaps his parents should ask Eton for a refund.
Details details, it's all oop north (well, southwest from me, but still).
But why did he feel the need to qualify it as "in Derbyshire" anyway? Macclesfield is surely well enough known and if you're going to qualify you'd better get your facts right.
Also living up to my name, but it does seem like 2017 is repeating itself in all too horrific a way, leading to a repeat of the phenomenon that led to a hung Parliament then: an election campaign makes Labour Leavers forget about Brexit and return to their home party, whereas in the same campaign Tory Remainers don't forget about Brexit and don't return home...
ARRGHRGRHRGRHGHRH!
2017 is not repeating itself...
I certainly don't want it to, but (1) The Tory lead started at a much lower level than last time; (2) Labour is already creeping up, with a month left to go; (3) The Lib Dems are being squeezed by Lab; (4) The Lab manifesto will contain enough gigantic giveaways to sway a lot of people; (5) The debates are a wild card, but perhaps the calm reasonableness with which Corbyn spins his utopian dream will be effective; (6) The winning message of "Get Brexit Done" seems to be weakening.
I'm flipping terrified.
Agreed. The debates could be deadly. If Corbyn comes across as a dull-but-dependable time-and-motion inspector - and not the hideous Marxist monster of Daily Express legend - then people might think about giving him ago as opposed to Boris's randomness. I suspect Boris will find an excuse to cancel - the risk is just too great.
Agree all round.
Frankly I'm astonished Johnson is going into the debates. Nothing to gain. Everything to lose.
May was excoriated for dodging them. BJ had little choice.
It's high risk. No Corbyn fan but I think he's good at that kind of thing. Not sure about BJ.
Well I certainly agree it's now too late. Johnson will have to see it through.
If Corbyn can avoid losing his temper it will probably be job done for him and Labour.
I'm expecting them to poll around 33-34%. Somewhere in that ball park, maybe higher.
And on that subject, I want to add this for HYUFD's benefit. This is based on feel but please at least listen to me. I successfully predicted the 52-48 Leave win and won a nice stack. I also successfully bet on Cameron winning in 2015.
This ISN'T 1997. Nor is it 1979 or 1983.
If anything it feels to me more like 1992. A weary electorate may yet plump for another 5 yrs of Conservatives, but it won't be a landslide. And, dare I say it, you might be better of losing this election than winning it by a narrow margin and getting absolutely thumped next time.
If he really insists on not extending - which I doubt - I would expect some sort of bare bones deal rather than nothing. It will be interesting to see if Betfair frame a "No Deal in 2020" market. I suspect they won't because "No Deal" will be too difficult to define. What there should be, however, is an "Extend Transition?" market. I will be backing Yes on that if the price is anything better than about 1.5.
The prize is a majority that enables exit through the WA available.
To leavers that is Brexit done because remainers will have failed to overturn the referendum result.
Remainers might get excited about Boris extending next year (no doubt he will) but leavers will just shrug their shoulders.
Politically it makes no sense not to extend regardless of ERG ranting.
We left the EU but are still paying £10bn a year to it is going to be a hard thing for Johnson to justify
And I suspect extending will require us to continue paying the £1bn a month or so we currently pay it.
I've just put some trend lines through the Lab and Con polling numbers from Wikipedia covering the period since the election was called. Both parties vote share increasing, and the gradients of the two trend lines are identical. Gap between the two trend lines is 10.5% (Or 10.52% if Sunil is watching!)
Conclusion: The polls are not narrowing, but there is a squeeze on the other parties. The Farage partial pull-out will of course bugger up the trend!
Very intrigued to see your working out as Britain elects posted 3 hours ago saying the gap closed by 2.4% over the last week or so
Here is the data set. I just stuck it into Excel and added trendlines:
Date Con Lab 11–12 Nov 42% 28% 8–11 Nov 39% 31% 6–9 Nov 41% 29% 7–8 Nov 39% 26% 6–8 Nov 35% 29% 6–8 Nov 41% 29% 6–8 Nov 40% 30% 5–8 Nov 37% 29% 5–6 Nov 36% 25% 30 Oct–5 Nov 36% 29% 1–4 Nov 38% 25% 1–4 Nov 38% 31% 31 Oct–2 Nov 40% 28% 30 Oct–1 Nov 42% 26% 30 Oct–1 Nov 39% 27% 30–31 Oct 36% 28% 30–31 Oct 36% 28% 30–31 Oct 40% 29% 29–30 Oct 36% 21% 29–30 Oct 34% 26%
Fascinating - I just plotted those data points for lead size versus time on a graph by hand, and if you exclude the initial 15 and 16 point leads, the trendline is almost horizontal at 9-10 points.
Did you try excluding some other data points? That kind of things can work wonders.
Also living up to my name, but it does seem like 2017 is repeating itself in all too horrific a way, leading to a repeat of the phenomenon that led to a hung Parliament then: an election campaign makes Labour Leavers forget about Brexit and return to their home party, whereas in the same campaign Tory Remainers don't forget about Brexit and don't return home...
ARRGHRGRHRGRHGHRH!
2017 is not repeating itself...
I certainly don't want it to, but (1) The Tory lead started at a much lower level than last time; (2) Labour is already creeping up, with a month left to go; (3) The Lib Dems are being squeezed by Lab; (4) The Lab manifesto will contain enough gigantic giveaways to sway a lot of people; (5) The debates are a wild card, but perhaps the calm reasonableness with which Corbyn spins his utopian dream will be effective; (6) The winning message of "Get Brexit Done" seems to be weakening.
I'm flipping terrified.
Agreed. The debates could be deadly. If Corbyn comes across as a dull-but-dependable time-and-motion inspector - and not the hideous Marxist monster of Daily Express legend - then people might think about giving him ago as opposed to Boris's randomness. I suspect Boris will find an excuse to cancel - the risk is just too great.
Agree all round.
Frankly I'm astonished Johnson is going into the debates. Nothing to gain. Everything to lose.
May was excoriated for dodging them. BJ had little choice.
It's high risk. No Corbyn fan but I think he's good at that kind of thing. Not sure about BJ.
Well I certainly agree it's now too late. Johnson will have to see it through.
If Corbyn can avoid losing his temper it will probably be job done for him and Labour.
I'm expecting them to poll around 33-34%. Somewhere in that ball park, maybe higher.
There's also a risk to Corbyn though, which might explain why Boris is taking the gamble - he can use the debates to refocus the campaign on Brexit in its closing stages, and the ludicrous joke that is the Labour plan versus the clarity of the Tory one.
Well I certainly agree it's now too late. Johnson will have to see it through.
If Corbyn can avoid losing his temper it will probably be job done for him and Labour.
I'm expecting them to poll around 33-34%. Somewhere in that ball park, maybe higher.
I don't see it this way.
Nuance and extended explanations are not a good look in TV debates and unfortunately for Corbyn he is the one who is going to be giving rambling defences of Labour's main policies.
Boris is always good value for putting his foot in it but i'm sure he will get coached to death on giving short, snappy answers.
I've just put some trend lines through the Lab and Con polling numbers from Wikipedia covering the period since the election was called. Both parties vote share increasing, and the gradients of the two trend lines are identical. Gap between the two trend lines is 10.5% (Or 10.52% if Sunil is watching!)
Conclusion: The polls are not narrowing, but there is a squeeze on the other parties. The Farage partial pull-out will of course bugger up the trend!
Very intrigued to see your working out as Britain elects posted 3 hours ago saying the gap closed by 2.4% over the last week or so
Here is the data set. I just stuck it into Excel and added trendlines:
Date Con Lab 11–12 Nov 42% 28% 8–11 Nov 39% 31% 6–9 Nov 41% 29% 7–8 Nov 39% 26% 6–8 Nov 35% 29% 6–8 Nov 41% 29% 6–8 Nov 40% 30% 5–8 Nov 37% 29% 5–6 Nov 36% 25% 30 Oct–5 Nov 36% 29% 1–4 Nov 38% 25% 1–4 Nov 38% 31% 31 Oct–2 Nov 40% 28% 30 Oct–1 Nov 42% 26% 30 Oct–1 Nov 39% 27% 30–31 Oct 36% 28% 30–31 Oct 36% 28% 30–31 Oct 40% 29% 29–30 Oct 36% 21% 29–30 Oct 34% 26%
I still find this useful, overlays the trend now (since election called) vs 2017.
How about overlaying the trend vs 2015 or other previous elections? 2017 isn't the only election that has ever occured and the thing that changed 2017 hasn't happened this year which is Labour squeezing the Tory vote in the final 2 weeks of the campaign [after dementia tax]. Minor party squeeze stopped in a few days time according to those lines.
2017 has Labour led by the same leader and has the Brexit effect thrown in.
Also living up to my name, but it does seem like 2017 is repeating itself in all too horrific a way, leading to a repeat of the phenomenon that led to a hung Parliament then: an election campaign makes Labour Leavers forget about Brexit and return to their home party, whereas in the same campaign Tory Remainers don't forget about Brexit and don't return home...
ARRGHRGRHRGRHGHRH!
2017 is not repeating itself...
I certainly don't want it to, but (1) The Tory lead started at a much lower level than last time; (2) Labour is already creeping up, with a month left to go; (3) The Lib Dems are being squeezed by Lab; (4) The Lab manifesto will contain enough gigantic giveaways to sway a lot of people; (5) The debates are a wild card, but perhaps the calm reasonableness with which Corbyn spins his utopian dream will be effective; (6) The winning message of "Get Brexit Done" seems to be weakening.
I'm flipping terrified.
Agreed. The debates could be deadly. If Corbyn comes across as a dull-but-dependable time-and-motion inspector - and not the hideous Marxist monster of Daily Express legend - then people might think about giving him ago as opposed to Boris's randomness. I suspect Boris will find an excuse to cancel - the risk is just too great.
Agree all round.
Frankly I'm astonished Johnson is going into the debates. Nothing to gain. Everything to lose.
May was excoriated for dodging them. BJ had little choice.
It's high risk. No Corbyn fan but I think he's good at that kind of thing. Not sure about BJ.
Well I certainly agree it's now too late. Johnson will have to see it through.
If Corbyn can avoid losing his temper it will probably be job done for him and Labour.
I'm expecting them to poll around 33-34%. Somewhere in that ball park, maybe higher.
There's also a risk to Corbyn though, which might explain why Boris is taking the gamble - he can use the debates to refocus the campaign on Brexit in its closing stages, and the ludicrous joke that is the Labour plan versus the clarity of the Tory one.
It's arrogance on Johnson's part. It's the Michael Gove Oxford Union hubris.
They genuinely believe they can take down Corbyn face-to-face. They think they can fell him then and there.
On Brexit there is no upside. All it does is give Corbyn time to explain his approach free from the Daily Express lampoonery.
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
A meeting would have stopped the flooding for sure. How could he not have a meeting?!
Did I mishear that, or did he say he had "come up to Macclesfield in Derbyshire"?
Perhaps his parents should ask Eton for a refund.
Details details, it's all oop north (well, southwest from me, but still).
But why did he feel the need to qualify it as "in Derbyshire" anyway? Macclesfield is surely well enough known and if you're going to qualify you'd better get your facts right.
No, it was Matlock. The one in Derbyshire, not Matlock, Iowa.
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
It just seems to happen so regularly, and he seems to not really know what to do? Like, sure, they may all be partisans, but also, be better at having comebacks?
I've just put some trend lines through the Lab and Con polling numbers from Wikipedia covering the period since the election was called. Both parties vote share increasing, and the gradients of the two trend lines are identical. Gap between the two trend lines is 10.5% (Or 10.52% if Sunil is watching!)
Conclusion: The polls are not narrowing, but there is a squeeze on the other parties. The Farage partial pull-out will of course bugger up the trend!
Very intrigued to see your working out as Britain elects posted 3 hours ago saying the gap closed by 2.4% over the last week or so
Here is the data set. I just stuck it into Excel and added trendlines:
Date Con Lab 11–12 Nov 42% 28% 8–11 Nov 39% 31% 6–9 Nov 41% 29% 7–8 Nov 39% 26% 6–8 Nov 35% 29% 6–8 Nov 41% 29% 6–8 Nov 40% 30% 5–8 Nov 37% 29% 5–6 Nov 36% 25% 30 Oct–5 Nov 36% 29% 1–4 Nov 38% 25% 1–4 Nov 38% 31% 31 Oct–2 Nov 40% 28% 30 Oct–1 Nov 42% 26% 30 Oct–1 Nov 39% 27% 30–31 Oct 36% 28% 30–31 Oct 36% 28% 30–31 Oct 40% 29% 29–30 Oct 36% 21% 29–30 Oct 34% 26%
Fascinating - I just plotted those data points for lead size versus time on a graph by hand, and if you exclude the initial 15 and 16 point leads, the trendline is almost horizontal at 9-10 points.
Did you try excluding some other data points? That kind of things can work wonders.
Shrug - draw it and you'll see that those two are the two clear outliers and were polled on Day 1 and Day 2 of the dataset. If you're right, and we include them, then we would expect to see the average lead tumble to 5-6 points over the next few days.
I've just put some trend lines through the Lab and Con polling numbers from Wikipedia covering the period since the election was called. Both parties vote share increasing, and the gradients of the two trend lines are identical. Gap between the two trend lines is 10.5% (Or 10.52% if Sunil is watching!)
Conclusion: The polls are not narrowing, but there is a squeeze on the other parties. The Farage partial pull-out will of course bugger up the trend!
Very intrigued to see your working out as Britain elects posted 3 hours ago saying the gap closed by 2.4% over the last week or so
Here is the data set. I just stuck it into Excel and added trendlines:
Date Con Lab 11–12 Nov 42% 28% 8–11 Nov 39% 31% 6–9 Nov 41% 29% 7–8 Nov 39% 26% 6–8 Nov 35% 29% 6–8 Nov 41% 29% 6–8 Nov 40% 30% 5–8 Nov 37% 29% 5–6 Nov 36% 25% 30 Oct–5 Nov 36% 29% 1–4 Nov 38% 25% 1–4 Nov 38% 31% 31 Oct–2 Nov 40% 28% 30 Oct–1 Nov 42% 26% 30 Oct–1 Nov 39% 27% 30–31 Oct 36% 28% 30–31 Oct 36% 28% 30–31 Oct 40% 29% 29–30 Oct 36% 21% 29–30 Oct 34% 26%
I still find this useful, overlays the trend now (since election called) vs 2017.
How about overlaying the trend vs 2015 or other previous elections? 2017 isn't the only election that has ever occured and the thing that changed 2017 hasn't happened this year which is Labour squeezing the Tory vote in the final 2 weeks of the campaign [after dementia tax]. Minor party squeeze stopped in a few days time according to those lines.
2017 has Labour led by the same leader and has the Brexit effect thrown in.
Tories aren't led by the same leader so unless you expect Boris to have a dementia tax manifesto why would the Tory collapse that triggered last time be relevant now?
The Brexit effect is completely different now, last time both main parties were pledging to leave and you had MPs all across the chamber from Chuka Umunma to Sarah Wollaston to David Gauke all pledging to respect the referendum, leave and that there must be no second referendum. That's not the same now either.
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
It just seems to happen so regularly, and he seems to not really know what to do? Like, sure, they may all be partisans, but also, be better at having comebacks?
I've just put some trend lines through the Lab and Con polling numbers from Wikipedia covering the period since the election was called. Both parties vote share increasing, and the gradients of the two trend lines are identical. Gap between the two trend lines is 10.5% (Or 10.52% if Sunil is watching!)
Conclusion: The polls are not narrowing, but there is a squeeze on the other parties. The Farage partial pull-out will of course bugger up the trend!
Very intrigued to see your working out as Britain elects posted 3 hours ago saying the gap closed by 2.4% over the last week or so
Here is the data set. I just stuck it into Excel and added trendlines:
Date Con Lab 11–12 Nov 42% 28% 8–11 Nov 39% 31% 6–9 Nov 41% 29% 7–8 Nov 39% 26% 6–8 Nov 35% 29% 6–8 Nov 41% 29% 6–8 Nov 40% 30% 5–8 Nov 37% 29% 5–6 Nov 36% 25% 30 Oct–5 Nov 36% 29% 1–4 Nov 38% 25% 1–4 Nov 38% 31% 31 Oct–2 Nov 40% 28% 30 Oct–1 Nov 42% 26% 30 Oct–1 Nov 39% 27% 30–31 Oct 36% 28% 30–31 Oct 36% 28% 30–31 Oct 40% 29% 29–30 Oct 36% 21% 29–30 Oct 34% 26%
I still find this useful, overlays the trend now (since election called) vs 2017.
How about overlaying the trend vs 2015 or other previous elections? 2017 isn't the only election that has ever occured and the thing that changed 2017 hasn't happened this year which is Labour squeezing the Tory vote in the final 2 weeks of the campaign [after dementia tax]. Minor party squeeze stopped in a few days time according to those lines.
I mean, this election has more in common with 2017? It is still a "Brexit Election", called early, by a Conservative Prime Minister trying to get MPs for their deal. The country is still thinking a lot about Brexit but is also weary of austerity. Corbyn is leader of the Labour party.
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
It just seems to happen so regularly, and he seems to not really know what to do? Like, sure, they may all be partisans, but also, be better at having comebacks?
Indeed you don't want a Theresa May style 'there's no magic money tree' retort. Boris is listening to them somberly then replying, not sure what else he's supposed to do while they're speaking.
"Thank you Mr Corbyn but what do *you* think? You have views on everything from patient waiting times to the situation in Bolivia. Will you please show some leadership and tell us whether you want to Leave or Remain?"
That's a fair enough follow up from, say, Etchingham. Jeremy will have to step up to the plate and deal with it as he thinks fit. I predict -
"We are a democratic party not a dictatorship. We will hold a special conference to decide our position after we have negotiated the best possible Leave option and I will be bound by that."
And then of course Boris will have to field the follow up to HIS softhead soundbite of Get Brexit Done.
"We keep hearing this, Prime Minister, but surely Brexit will not be done. On the contrary this is merely the start. What will you do at the end of Transition when more time is needed to agree a deal? Will you extend? Or will you crash us out with no deal on WTO terms?"
We left the EU but are still paying £10bn a year to it is going to be a hard thing for Johnson to justify
And I suspect extending will require us to continue paying the £1bn a month or so we currently pay it.
We won't be in the lead up to an election so it won't matter other than to the fringes on both sides looking to continue a war that will have already been won.
I think you'll find, assuming Boris wins a majority, that once the deal is voted through you will find the subject falling right down the list of concerns for voters.
Other than for Labour who will then begin an internecine war as they try to decide on their future positioning on Europe.
Of course, if Boris fails to get a majority then the problems are all in the Tory camp which is why this election is so important.
I've just put some trend lines through the Lab and Con polling numbers from Wikipedia covering the period since the election was called. Both parties vote share increasing, and the gradients of the two trend lines are identical. Gap between the two trend lines is 10.5% (Or 10.52% if Sunil is watching!)
Conclusion: The polls are not narrowing, but there is a squeeze on the other parties. The Farage partial pull-out will of course bugger up the trend!
Very intrigued to see your working out as Britain elects posted 3 hours ago saying the gap closed by 2.4% over the last week or so
Here is the data set. I just stuck it into Excel and added trendlines:
Date Con Lab 11–12 Nov 42% 28% 8–11 Nov 39% 31% 6–9 Nov 41% 29% 7–8 Nov 39% 26% 6–8 Nov 35% 29% 6–8 Nov 41% 29% 6–8 Nov 40% 30% 5–8 Nov 37% 29% 5–6 Nov 36% 25% 30 Oct–5 Nov 36% 29% 1–4 Nov 38% 25% 1–4 Nov 38% 31% 31 Oct–2 Nov 40% 28% 30 Oct–1 Nov 42% 26% 30 Oct–1 Nov 39% 27% 30–31 Oct 36% 28% 30–31 Oct 36% 28% 30–31 Oct 40% 29% 29–30 Oct 36% 21% 29–30 Oct 34% 26%
I still find this useful, overlays the trend now (since election called) vs 2017.
How about overlaying the trend vs 2015 or other previous elections? 2017 isn't the only election that has ever occured and the thing that changed 2017 hasn't happened this year which is Labour squeezing the Tory vote in the final 2 weeks of the campaign [after dementia tax]. Minor party squeeze stopped in a few days time according to those lines.
I mean, this election has more in common with 2017? It is still a "Brexit Election", called early, by a Conservative Prime Minister trying to get MPs for their deal. The country is still thinking a lot about Brexit but is also weary of austerity. Corbyn is leader of the Labour party.
So Corbyn and Labour are pledging no second referendum like they did in 2017? So May had a deal in 2017? So Parliament had been blocking May in 2017?
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
It just seems to happen so regularly, and he seems to not really know what to do? Like, sure, they may all be partisans, but also, be better at having comebacks?
I mean a comeback doesn't need to be antagonising. He could try and be sympathetic. He could try and do the "that was David, I'm not him, I care". He doesn't. He just goes around with a face that has been slapped.
Corbyn isn't popular, but anytime I've seen him confronted by people in videos he does look like he is at least trying to engage in the issue.
A point I'd like to make which I haven't seen anyone else mention.
2017 May called the election for 8th June on the 18th April. On 4th May there were the local elections, where tories did rather well.
Seems to be a higher gearing the Labours recovery post local election, especially for Tory decline during this period. Interesting factor to consider this time around.
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
It just seems to happen so regularly, and he seems to not really know what to do? Like, sure, they may all be partisans, but also, be better at having comebacks?
I mean a comeback doesn't need to be antagonising. He could try and be sympathetic. He could try and do the "that was David, I'm not him, I care". He doesn't. He just goes around with a face that has been slapped.
Corbyn isn't popular, but anytime I've seen him confronted by people in videos he does look like he is at least trying to engage in the issue.
He is being sympathetic. His replies are sympathetic.
Sharing videos cut as soon as he starts to reply doesn't make him unsympathetic.
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
It just seems to happen so regularly, and he seems to not really know what to do? Like, sure, they may all be partisans, but also, be better at having comebacks?
I mean a comeback doesn't need to be antagonising. He could try and be sympathetic. He could try and do the "that was David, I'm not him, I care". He doesn't. He just goes around with a face that has been slapped.
Corbyn isn't popular, but anytime I've seen him confronted by people in videos he does look like he is at least trying to engage in the issue.
He is being sympathetic. His replies are sympathetic.
Sharing videos cut as soon as he starts to reply doesn't make him unsympathetic.
Looking at those trend lines it is pretty clear from here that Labour need everything to go right and the Tories get everything wrong to have a result like 2017.
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
It just seems to happen so regularly, and he seems to not really know what to do? Like, sure, they may all be partisans, but also, be better at having comebacks?
Again I disagree with you. This isn’t definition of a bad day. Those bits of twitter mean nothing in bigger picture. What would move votes is media in local area spending weeks pinning blame on rivers left in mess and saying government created the disaster.
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
A meeting would have stopped the flooding for sure. How could he not have a meeting?!
Did I mishear that, or did he say he had "come up to Macclesfield in Derbyshire"?
Perhaps his parents should ask Eton for a refund.
Details details, it's all oop north (well, southwest from me, but still).
But why did he feel the need to qualify it as "in Derbyshire" anyway? Macclesfield is surely well enough known and if you're going to qualify you'd better get your facts right.
No, it was Matlock. The one in Derbyshire, not Matlock, Iowa.
You're right, just listened again (a couple of times). Totally heard Macclesfield the first time, maybe due to expecting it from your post. But definitely Matlock and maybe more deserving of the qualification.
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
It just seems to happen so regularly, and he seems to not really know what to do? Like, sure, they may all be partisans, but also, be better at having comebacks?
A comeback isn't the same as an insult. A comeback could just be as simple as acknowledging what has been said and promising to take it on board. Or asking open questions to encourage the person to talk it out.
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
It just seems to happen so regularly, and he seems to not really know what to do? Like, sure, they may all be partisans, but also, be better at having comebacks?
A comeback isn't the same as an insult. A comeback could just be as simple as acknowledging what has been said and promising to take it on board. Or asking open questions to encourage the person to talk it out.
A point I'd like to make which I haven't seen anyone else mention.
2017 May called the election for 8th June on the 18th April. On 4th May there were the local elections, where tories did rather well.
Seems to be a higher gearing the Labours recovery post local election, especially for Tory decline during this period. Interesting factor to consider this time around.
A GE is probably different than all other elections?
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
It just seems to happen so regularly, and he seems to not really know what to do? Like, sure, they may all be partisans, but also, be better at having comebacks?
I mean a comeback doesn't need to be antagonising. He could try and be sympathetic. He could try and do the "that was David, I'm not him, I care". He doesn't. He just goes around with a face that has been slapped.
Corbyn isn't popular, but anytime I've seen him confronted by people in videos he does look like he is at least trying to engage in the issue.
He is being sympathetic. His replies are sympathetic.
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
It just seems to happen so regularly, and he seems to not really know what to do? Like, sure, they may all be partisans, but also, be better at having comebacks?
A comeback isn't the same as an insult. A comeback could just be as simple as acknowledging what has been said and promising to take it on board. Or asking open questions to encourage the person to talk it out.
You mean exactly what he is doing?
Not in every case. The one in the hospital, he was arguing with the guy whose daughter was ill.
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
I've just put some trend lines through the Lab and Con polling numbers from Wikipedia covering the period since the election was called. Both parties vote share increasing, and the gradients of the two trend lines are identical. Gap between the two trend lines is 10.5% (Or 10.52% if Sunil is watching!)
Conclusion: The polls are not narrowing, but there is a squeeze on the other parties. The Farage partial pull-out will of course bugger up the trend!
Very intrigued to see your working out as Britain elects posted 3 hours ago saying the gap closed by 2.4% over the last week or so
Here is the data set. I just stuck it into Excel and added trendlines:
Date Con Lab 11–12 Nov 42% 28% 8–11 Nov 39% 31% 6–9 Nov 41% 29% 7–8 Nov 39% 26% 6–8 Nov 35% 29% 6–8 Nov 41% 29% 6–8 Nov 40% 30% 5–8 Nov 37% 29% 5–6 Nov 36% 25% 30 Oct–5 Nov 36% 29% 1–4 Nov 38% 25% 1–4 Nov 38% 31% 31 Oct–2 Nov 40% 28% 30 Oct–1 Nov 42% 26% 30 Oct–1 Nov 39% 27% 30–31 Oct 36% 28% 30–31 Oct 36% 28% 30–31 Oct 40% 29% 29–30 Oct 36% 21% 29–30 Oct 34% 26%
I still find this useful, overlays the trend now (since election called) vs 2017.
How about overlaying the trend vs 2015 or other previous elections? 2017 isn't the only election that has ever occured and the thing that changed 2017 hasn't happened this year which is Labour squeezing the Tory vote in the final 2 weeks of the campaign [after dementia tax]. Minor party squeeze stopped in a few days time according to those lines.
I mean, this election has more in common with 2017? It is still a "Brexit Election", called early, by a Conservative Prime Minister trying to get MPs for their deal. The country is still thinking a lot about Brexit but is also weary of austerity. Corbyn is leader of the Labour party.
So Corbyn and Labour are pledging no second referendum like they did in 2017? So May had a deal in 2017? So Parliament had been blocking May in 2017?
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
It just seems to happen so regularly, and he seems to not really know what to do? Like, sure, they may all be partisans, but also, be better at having comebacks?
I mean a comeback doesn't need to be antagonising. He could try and be sympathetic. He could try and do the "that was David, I'm not him, I care". He doesn't. He just goes around with a face that has been slapped.
Corbyn isn't popular, but anytime I've seen him confronted by people in videos he does look like he is at least trying to engage in the issue.
He is being sympathetic. His replies are sympathetic.
A point I'd like to make which I haven't seen anyone else mention.
2017 May called the election for 8th June on the 18th April. On 4th May there were the local elections, where tories did rather well.
Seems to be a higher gearing the Labours recovery post local election, especially for Tory decline during this period. Interesting factor to consider this time around.
A GE is probably different than all other elections?
Agreed but having a major election just weeks before the General Election back in 2017, as people seeing the results seems to have been a boost to labour was my point
I've just put some trend lines through the Lab and Con polling numbers from Wikipedia covering the period since the election was called. Both parties vote share increasing, and the gradients of the two trend lines are identical. Gap between the two trend lines is 10.5% (Or 10.52% if Sunil is watching!)
Conclusion: The polls are not narrowing, but there is a squeeze on the other parties. The Farage partial pull-out will of course bugger up the trend!
Very intrigued to see your working out as Britain elects posted 3 hours ago saying the gap closed by 2.4% over the last week or so
Here is the data set. I just stuck it into Excel and added trendlines:
Date Con Lab 11–12 Nov 42% 28% 8–11 Nov 39% 31% 6–9 Nov 41% 29% 7–8 Nov 39% 26% 6–8 Nov 35% 29% 6–8 Nov 41% 29% 6–8 Nov 40% 30% 5–8 Nov 37% 29% 5–6 Nov 36% 25% 30 Oct–5 Nov 36% 29% 1–4 Nov 38% 25% 1–4 Nov 38% 31% 31 Oct–2 Nov 40% 28% 30 Oct–1 Nov 42% 26% 30 Oct–1 Nov 39% 27% 30–31 Oct 36% 28% 30–31 Oct 36% 28% 30–31 Oct 40% 29% 29–30 Oct 36% 21% 29–30 Oct 34% 26%
I still find this useful, overlays the trend now (since election called) vs 2017.
How about overlaying the trend vs 2015 or other previous elections? 2017 isn't the only election that has ever occured and the thing that changed 2017 hasn't happened this year which is Labour squeezing the Tory vote in the final 2 weeks of the campaign [after dementia tax]. Minor party squeeze stopped in a few days time according to those lines.
I think that's spot on. In 2017, LibDems and Greens got squeezed with every poll. Plot it on exponential axis, and you see them losing a little bit of support every day,
This time around, there was an initial plunge from the LDs, then nothing, nowt, zero. This should make Labour very nervous.
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
It just seems to happen so regularly, and he seems to not really know what to do? Like, sure, they may all be partisans, but also, be better at having comebacks?
I mean a comeback doesn't need to be antagonising. He could try and be sympathetic. He could try and do the "that was David, I'm not him, I care". He doesn't. He just goes around with a face that has been slapped.
Corbyn isn't popular, but anytime I've seen him confronted by people in videos he does look like he is at least trying to engage in the issue.
He is being sympathetic. His replies are sympathetic.
Oh man.
Is this what we've become?
What the hell do you want him to say?
How about sorry. There’s not been enough cleaning of rivers. We cocked up, will learn from it. Sorry.
I've just put some trend lines through the Lab and Con polling numbers from Wikipedia covering the period since the election was called. Both parties vote share increasing, and the gradients of the two trend lines are identical. Gap between the two trend lines is 10.5% (Or 10.52% if Sunil is watching!)
Conclusion: The polls are not narrowing, but there is a squeeze on the other parties. The Farage partial pull-out will of course bugger up the trend!
Very intrigued to see your working out as Britain elects posted 3 hours ago saying the gap closed by 2.4% over the last week or so
Here is the data set. I just stuck it into Excel and added trendlines:
Date Con Lab 11–12 Nov 42% 28% 8–11 Nov 39% 31% 6–9 Nov 41% 29% 7–8 Nov 39% 26% 6–8 Nov 35% 29% 6–8 Nov 41% 29% 6–8 Nov 40% 30% 5–8 Nov 37% 29% 5–6 Nov 36% 25% 30 Oct–5 Nov 36% 29% 1–4 Nov 38% 25% 1–4 Nov 38% 31% 31 Oct–2 Nov 40% 28% 30 Oct–1 Nov 42% 26% 30 Oct–1 Nov 39% 27% 30–31 Oct 36% 28% 30–31 Oct 36% 28% 30–31 Oct 40% 29% 29–30 Oct 36% 21% 29–30 Oct 34% 26%
I still find this useful, overlays the trend now (since election called) vs 2017.
How about overlaying the trend vs 2015 or other previous elections? 2017 isn't the only election that has ever occured and the thing that changed 2017 hasn't happened this year which is Labour squeezing the Tory vote in the final 2 weeks of the campaign [after dementia tax]. Minor party squeeze stopped in a few days time according to those lines.
I mean, this election has more in common with 2017? It is still a "Brexit Election", called early, by a Conservative Prime Minister trying to get MPs for their deal. The country is still thinking a lot about Brexit but is also weary of austerity. Corbyn is leader of the Labour party.
So Corbyn and Labour are pledging no second referendum like they did in 2017? So May had a deal in 2017? So Parliament had been blocking May in 2017?
Or is this different to 2017?
It is different, but has similarities.
Sure it does. Its an election. People will vote. That's similar to 2015 too.
Corbyn was leader and lost the last election - but just because Corbyn is leader now doesn't guarantee history will repeat itself and he will lose this one too.
There's a video doing the rounds on FB of Johnson at a meeting with local people where flooding has hit. It isn't just the fact that the people are so willing to slag him off to his face, which is interesting, but his complete inability to look anything other than baffled at the whole experienced. Humbled, troubled, even indignant could work, but he just looks confused.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
We wouldn’t be surprised if Laura announces on BBC angry resident is in fact Labour member, would we?
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
It just seems to happen so regularly, and he seems to not really know what to do? Like, sure, they may all be partisans, but also, be better at having comebacks?
I mean a comeback doesn't need to be antagonising. He could try and be sympathetic. He could try and do the "that was David, I'm not him, I care". He doesn't. He just goes around with a face that has been slapped.
Corbyn isn't popular, but anytime I've seen him confronted by people in videos he does look like he is at least trying to engage in the issue.
He is being sympathetic. His replies are sympathetic.
Oh man.
Is this what we've become?
What the hell do you want him to say?
How about sorry. There’s not been enough cleaning of rivers. We cocked up, will learn from it. Sorry.
One point I haven't seen mentioned is that this might be the most postal vote-dependant general election yet, with resulting impacts on the demographics of the vote and the effectiveness of the late campaign.
Comments
Conservative supporters shouldn't be downhearted, though. At that rate it would take another 29 days to erode the lead entirely.
I kid you not.
Maybe not quite what you meant, but negotiating by threatening to shoot yourself in the head if the other side doesn't give what you want does not become more compelling because you've written up your will and made the funeral arrangements.
Good question. On the face of it Swinson won't support anyone, being totally anti Tory and anti Corbyn. However in any scenario whatever apart from Tory working majority (the more likely outcome) the broad Remain factions will unite in some way to ensure their remain prize.
If the only option on the numbers is a deal with Boris the LDs will try it - based on Ref2. (Ditto with Labour.) For Boris to have to rely on the LDs (SNP - don't even think about it) could be Boris's extraordinary stroke of luck as he could find a way of Remaining without taking responsibility for it and staying PM for now as well. As at heart Boris is (IMHO) a Remainer he would find this interesting. He does give the appearance of being a lucky general; perhaps this will continue.
If of course he wins a working majority he will, on the face of things, have to continue his impossible policy of leaving under his deal, and completing by the end of 2020. Escaping from that would be harder, but given his record not impossible.
1: Johnson's deal has GB out of NI's customs territory. Did May's deal? Yes or No.
2: Johnson's deal has NI benefiting from UK's trade deals. Did May's deal? Yes or No.
3: Johnson's deal has NI voters having a unilateral exit mechanism to vote their way out unilaterally from the special arrangements if that is what NI's voters wish to do. Did May's deal? Yes or No.
Here's the scenario -
'Mr Johnson, describe your Brexit strategy in one sentence'
Mr Johnson - 'Get Brexit Done'
Mr Corbyn, describe your Brexit strategy in one sentence'
'Well personally I don't have a view either way, we'll renegotiate with the EU, offer another referendum with 2 Remain options on the ballot paper.........'
Yup.
The EU demanded unacceptably that 3% of the UK's population be stuck in the EU's customs territory with no unilateral exit and May "negotiated" that instead that apply to 100%. What the actual fudge how is that a concession by the EU?
Johnson pared it back to the 3% and insisted that could only continue if the voters voted for it to continue. Which makes it their choice, fair enough.
Infinitely better for NI to choose to have special arrangements or not, than to have all the UK stuck with no unilateral exit.
Presumably though, if Conservative biggest party they'll have first go at confidence vote? But surely fails due to lack of allies.
For once I think Sanders has a lot to be happy about.
There are potentially two or three more candidates contemplating entering the Dem primary.
Deval Patrick, Michael Bloomberg and, somehow, Hillary Clinton.
Deval Patrick seems like he'd do well with college educated whites and african american voters: enough to win, probably not, but enough to hurt Warren, Buttigieg or Biden, possibly.
Bloomberg will have no grass root support, but will make donors less likely to give to anyone, because he can just splash cash. But I wonder if this helps Bernie as having an out of touch billionaire literally on the stage / cohort is just a gift.
Hillary... god knows. I always thought she wouldn't run again, because why would you, but why be so candid about other things and coy about this? I can only see her hurting the other moderates / Warren, and boosting Bernie.
Also, Bernie's numbers aren't too bad, his fundraising is still going strong (Biden's not so much, and Buttigieg is almost solely dependent on big donors), and his support amongst Latinos makes him surprisingly strong in southern states. I also think he can do better amongst african american voters if Biden slips, whereas Buttigieg is not and will not catch on within that community.
Warren still seems favourite in my mind, as the Dem establishment hate Bernie and would be loath to compromise to him, whereas they would be willing to have Warren, whereas the leftish base of the Dem party would accept either Warren or Bernie (I think). Also interesting that moderate Dems whose 1st choice is Biden tend to have Bernie as their second choice, so it's not clear anyone but Bernie would benefit from Biden bombing.
LAB could be heading for overall majority - everyone loves McDonnell, Rayner and Pidcock!
Conclusion: The polls are not narrowing, but there is a squeeze on the other parties. The Farage partial pull-out will of course bugger up the trend!
…. in Georgia.
It seems to be a Facebook only video, so not sure if I can share it here, but it feels telling for the campaign to come.
The labour front bench so close to the IRA means the supporter of Republican terror and murder accusation plays very well in Scotland.
Labour down to 1 Tories unchanged. The Billy Boys will see to that 😌
Is what Jeremy would say.
Perhaps drop the "The" if it is decided that 3 words is the most the audience can process without getting a headache.
If YouGov shows a massive narrowing of the gap, I'll worry.
But no need yet.
Date Con Lab
11–12 Nov 42% 28%
8–11 Nov 39% 31%
6–9 Nov 41% 29%
7–8 Nov 39% 26%
6–8 Nov 35% 29%
6–8 Nov 41% 29%
6–8 Nov 40% 30%
5–8 Nov 37% 29%
5–6 Nov 36% 25%
30 Oct–5 Nov 36% 29%
1–4 Nov 38% 25%
1–4 Nov 38% 31%
31 Oct–2 Nov 40% 28%
30 Oct–1 Nov 42% 26%
30 Oct–1 Nov 39% 27%
30–31 Oct 36% 28%
30–31 Oct 36% 28%
30–31 Oct 40% 29%
29–30 Oct 36% 21%
29–30 Oct 34% 26%
Creating a case law amnesty for all crimes committed in Northern Ireland during the troubles as Boris has promised can be thoughtfully considered a good progressive policy to get out and sell. Also Priti Patel said we need brexit because EU laws block curry chefs coming from Pakistan, India and Bangladesh. Gotta love curry. Protecting our curry nights with more immigration from Indian sub continent should strongly feature in all elections in this country.
https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1194592831479963649
labour: yeh but, no but, yeh but....
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1193984074764967941
And a deal backed by most leavers is not a deal backed by the majority of the country, so it would be a deal without much mandate.
I've seen that there were at least two changes. One apparently decreased the Tory lead by 3 points, and the other increased it by 1 point. If those were the only two pollsters in the tracker, that would account for 1 percentage point of the change in the lead. Given the number of pollsters that are included, it would account for only a fraction of that.
There's nothing to say that trend will continue for the next 29 days. But I think you are clutching at straws if you're trying to deny there has been a shift in the last 8 days.
There’s bound to be anger in a situation where your home is ruined. It’s about where that anger goes next. Was it just some unfortunate weather or did the government not drain the rivers enough so the government created and inflicted the suffering?
Be interesting to see how it looks with polls taken wholly in November. I'd also be inclined to keep the Survation (?) poll with their consistent basis - which was the same as their previous poll.
1. Ipsos-MORI were the company with the largest Tory lead since Johnson became leader (17% in their most recent poll) but they haven't conducted a poll in the period after the Commons voted for an election.
2. There seems to be a degree of herding since ComRes (who are at the low end) are still showing a lead greater than they did pre-campaign, while say Opinium (at the high end) are showing a smaller lead.
Herding makes me nervous.
Perhaps his parents should ask Eton for a refund.
This article from way back when talks about some of the decisions made at the time:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jan/30/dredging-rivers-floods-somerset-levels-david-cameron-farmers
Boris Johnson is a much-maligned hero, in that case.
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1194626855044730880
As to the quality of the deal? I'm sure no one will really care apart from Nigel if he is not too busy worrying about penguin control on the Falkland Islands.
If Corbyn can avoid losing his temper it will probably be job done for him and Labour.
I'm expecting them to poll around 33-34%. Somewhere in that ball park, maybe higher.
To leavers that is Brexit done because remainers will have failed to overturn the referendum result.
Remainers might get excited about Boris extending next year (no doubt he will) but leavers will just shrug their shoulders.
Politically it makes no sense not to extend regardless of ERG ranting.
But why did he feel the need to qualify it as "in Derbyshire" anyway? Macclesfield is surely well enough known and if you're going to qualify you'd better get your facts right.
This ISN'T 1997. Nor is it 1979 or 1983.
If anything it feels to me more like 1992. A weary electorate may yet plump for another 5 yrs of Conservatives, but it won't be a landslide. And, dare I say it, you might be better of losing this election than winning it by a narrow margin and getting absolutely thumped next time.
And I suspect extending will require us to continue paying the £1bn a month or so we currently pay it.
Nuance and extended explanations are not a good look in TV debates and unfortunately for Corbyn he is the one who is going to be giving rambling defences of Labour's main policies.
Boris is always good value for putting his foot in it but i'm sure he will get coached to death on giving short, snappy answers.
They genuinely believe they can take down Corbyn face-to-face. They think they can fell him then and there.
On Brexit there is no upside. All it does is give Corbyn time to explain his approach free from the Daily Express lampoonery.
https://twitter.com/damocrat/status/1194573435298603008
https://twitter.com/damocrat/status/1194606518999683072
https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1194592831479963649
The Brexit effect is completely different now, last time both main parties were pledging to leave and you had MPs all across the chamber from Chuka Umunma to Sarah Wollaston to David Gauke all pledging to respect the referendum, leave and that there must be no second referendum. That's not the same now either.
"We are a democratic party not a dictatorship. We will hold a special conference to decide our position after we have negotiated the best possible Leave option and I will be bound by that."
And then of course Boris will have to field the follow up to HIS softhead soundbite of Get Brexit Done.
"We keep hearing this, Prime Minister, but surely Brexit will not be done. On the contrary this is merely the start. What will you do at the end of Transition when more time is needed to agree a deal? Will you extend? Or will you crash us out with no deal on WTO terms?"
"Oh cripes!"
I think you'll find, assuming Boris wins a majority, that once the deal is voted through you will find the subject falling right down the list of concerns for voters.
Other than for Labour who will then begin an internecine war as they try to decide on their future positioning on Europe.
Of course, if Boris fails to get a majority then the problems are all in the Tory camp which is why this election is so important.
So May had a deal in 2017?
So Parliament had been blocking May in 2017?
Or is this different to 2017?
Corbyn isn't popular, but anytime I've seen him confronted by people in videos he does look like he is at least trying to engage in the issue.
2017 May called the election for 8th June on the 18th April. On 4th May there were the local elections, where tories did rather well.
Seems to be a higher gearing the Labours recovery post local election, especially for Tory decline during this period. Interesting factor to consider this time around.
Sharing videos cut as soon as he starts to reply doesn't make him unsympathetic.
Is this what we've become?
At stopping work getting done.
The Boris Deal v Remain would be a better formulation.
This time around, there was an initial plunge from the LDs, then nothing, nowt, zero. This should make Labour very nervous.
Corbyn was leader and lost the last election - but just because Corbyn is leader now doesn't guarantee history will repeat itself and he will lose this one too.
Reforresting hills to soak water helps.