Two hours since the polls closed in Spain and over 80% of the votes have already been counted. Looks like the left bloc has definitely won most seats, but not enough for a majority without help from regional parties.
Do you think there's any hope that will be more stable this time?
That leaves Maduro pretty well isolated now, doesn’t it? Argentina I suppose, but the rest of the Chavez cabal seems to have been removed one way or another.
Lets hope his british mate doesnt expand the club to 2 in a few weeks.
Two hours since the polls closed in Spain and over 80% of the votes have already been counted. Looks like the left bloc has definitely won most seats, but not enough for a majority without help from regional parties.
Do you think there's any hope that will be more stable this time?
Not really. However, I think a PSOE/Podemos deal could be doable. It would be incredibly fragile, though.
I do wonder about mental state of Trump. Was he this incoherent in the 80/90s? The media clips i have seen, he seemed much more like what you expect from a billionaire womenizer ie able to spin a good patter.
Does anyone know the best way to reclaim your money from cheeky utility companies?
I left Ovo on 23rd October and they’re sitting on over £700 of my money, and still collecting direct debits (i cancelled yesterday).
They are telling me it will take “4-6 weeks to issue a final statement” and then “another week” to refund me any monies owed.
They’ve given me some weasel excuse about that being a ‘standard procedure’. I want them to pull their finger out and stop using my money to aid the cash flow of their business. I bet they’ve had my final meter readings for just as long as my new provider has, which I sent in on 22nd October.
Any merit in threatening them with the small claims court?
Thanks Charles. They are getting around that by not issuing the bill for six weeks (a consumer demand, but something Ofgem refused to insist on) so they thereby do meet the criteria of issuing a full refund within 2 weeks, but make you wait up to seven weeks from the switch to receive it!
It's a racket.
If you had a variable payment authority set up you might be able to get the last payment back from your bank if it was taken without authority (ie after you had left)
The Labour candidate who celebrates the deaths of political opponents has passed the Labour interview and will still remain a candidate for parliament.
I am coming round to the opinion it will not only be brexit that sees Boris win, it will be the combination of his brexit deal and widescale dislike, even fear, of Corbyn
This stuff isn't getting much of an airing though. I bet if you asked most of the public, they would have no idea about Ms Sultana, more a general well Labour have been accused of anti-Jew stuff in the past.
Is he that toxic? Genuine question this - in some polls Labour has been getting 30%. The election is a month away. Or is it more that he appears to have no clear Brexit policy and Boris does so he suffers as the old guy who’s been around for a while who’s unclear vs the new bouncy guy saying he’ll get it done?
The Tory activists on here are only ever going to run Corbyn down. It probably doesn't matter if Corbyn is good or bad, they will only ever report the worst. On Corbyn's side, all Tories are evil, exploitative, baby-eating scum.
There are no balanced opinions on PB
I think expecting those who have been canvassing to be impartial is a bit of a stretch. The opinions that I most trust (in terms of their predictions at least) are those prepared to bet significant sums on the outcome. They are not alway right, but they are less lightly to be swayed by personal political priorities.
I think Nick Palmer once said that if he wouldn't post anything on here about canvassing that was false, but equally if he went canvassing and it was a disaster for Labour then he might keep it to himself, which seems fair enough. (Apologies if I have this wrong Nick).
David Herdson famously reported a shit canvassing session on the night before the 2017 election. Kudos to him for that.
That was the moment I knew Theresa had blown it
In fact probably the most stand out moment for me on PB
🤔. Did David get poo canvassing sessions all through the campaign or only at last minute?
It is both odd and amusing, but is that really what news media is like in the US?! I know its bad, but still.
CNN has completely lost their shit since Trump got elected. They are as bad as Fox News these days, where you would be hard pressed to actually learn anything about world events outside of Trump latest scandal.
That leaves Maduro pretty well isolated now, doesn’t it? Argentina I suppose, but the rest of the Chavez cabal seems to have been removed one way or another.
Lets hope his british mate doesnt expand the club to 2 in a few weeks.
And using a pet peeve of mine, wherein official sentiments or serious points are made using someone's twitter handle rather than their name. I'm sure President Morales could figure out a way to thank him for the sentiment without needing to include his handle.
The Labour candidate who celebrates the deaths of political opponents has passed the Labour interview and will still remain a candidate for parliament.
I am coming round to the opinion it will not only be brexit that sees Boris win, it will be the combination of his brexit deal and widescale dislike, even fear, of Corbyn
This stuff isn't getting much of an airing though. I bet if you asked most of the public, they would have no idea about Ms Sultana, more a general well Labour have been accused of anti-Jew stuff in the past.
Is he that toxic? Genuine question this - in some polls Labour has been getting 30%. The election is a month away. Or is it more that he appears to have no clear Brexit policy and Boris does so he suffers as the old guy who’s been around for a while who’s unclear vs the new bouncy guy saying he’ll get it done?
The Tory activists on here are only ever going to run Corbyn down. It probably doesn't matter if Corbyn is good or bad, they will only ever report the worst. On Corbyn's side, all Tories are evil, exploitative, baby-eating scum.
There are no balanced opinions on PB
I think expecting those who have been canvassing to be impartial is a bit of a stretch. The opinions that I most trust (in terms of their predictions at least) are those prepared to bet significant sums on the outcome. They are not alway right, but they are less lightly to be swayed by personal political priorities.
I think Nick Palmer once said that if he wouldn't post anything on here about canvassing that was false, but equally if he went canvassing and it was a disaster for Labour then he might keep it to himself, which seems fair enough. (Apologies if I have this wrong Nick).
David Herdson famously reported a shit canvassing session on the night before the 2017 election. Kudos to him for that.
That was the moment I knew Theresa had blown it
In fact probably the most stand out moment for me on PB
🤔. Did David get poo canvassing sessions all through the campaign or only at last minute?
I think he was revisiting undecideds. And they'd decided - not your lot.
NFL red zone again showing why it is just the best sports tv.
Fabulous, isn't it? Must see telly.
I always feel for hanson...7hrs without a break while listening / watching to up to 8 games at once. The setup really isnt much more than a couple of technical guys and him.
First projections in Spain based on 26% of votes counted show PP and VOX under-performing polls, PSOE doing slightly better and C’s down to 10 seats from 47. It’s LibDems 2015 for them.
Aren't Vox slightly overperforming? They're on about 15% and their best during the campaign was around 12-13%.
The Labour candidate who celebrates the deaths of political opponents has passed the Labour interview and will still remain a candidate for parliament.
I am coming round to the opinion it will not only be brexit that sees Boris win, it will be the combination of his brexit deal and widescale dislike, even fear, of Corbyn
This stuff isn't getting much of an airing though. I bet if you asked most of the public, they would have no idea about Ms Sultana, more a general well Labour have been accused of anti-Jew stuff in the past.
Is he that toxic? Genuine question this - in some polls Labour has been getting 30%. The election is a month away. Or is it more that he appears to have no clear Brexit policy and Boris does so he suffers as the old guy who’s been around for a while who’s unclear vs the new bouncy guy saying he’ll get it done?
The Tory activists on here are only ever going to run Corbyn down. It probably doesn't matter if Corbyn is good or bad, they will only ever report the worst. On Corbyn's side, all Tories are evil, exploitative, baby-eating scum.
There are no balanced opinions on PB
I think expecting those who have been canvassing to be impartial is a bit of a stretch. The opinions that I most trust (in terms of their predictions at least) are those prepared to bet significant sums on the outcome. They are not alway right, but they are less lightly to be swayed by personal political priorities.
I think Nick Palmer once said that if he wouldn't post anything on here about canvassing that was false, but equally if he went canvassing and it was a disaster for Labour then he might keep it to himself, which seems fair enough. (Apologies if I have this wrong Nick).
David Herdson famously reported a shit canvassing session on the night before the 2017 election. Kudos to him for that.
That was the moment I knew Theresa had blown it
In fact probably the most stand out moment for me on PB
🤔. Did David get poo canvassing sessions all through the campaign or only at last minute?
Over last couple of days as far as I recall but the night before told it all
The Labour candidate who celebrates the deaths of political opponents has passed the Labour interview and will still remain a candidate for parliament.
I am coming round to the opinion it will not only be brexit that sees Boris win, it will be the combination of his brexit deal and widescale dislike, even fear, of Corbyn
This stuff isn't getting much of an airing though. I bet if you asked most of the public, they would have no idea about Ms Sultana, more a general well Labour have been accused of anti-Jew stuff in the past.
Whatever it is - anti-semitism, pro-IRA, pro-the UK's enemies, bat-shit crazy economic policies - or a combination of bits of all - Corbyn is toxic on the doorstep this time. Much more so than 2017.
Is he that toxic? Genuine question this - in some polls Labour has been getting 30%. The election is a month away.
I just wonder how much of the smelly stuff around him is really making a difference .
The Tory activists on here are only ever going to run Corbyn down. It probably doesn't matter if Corbyn is good or bad, they will only ever report the worst. On Corbyn's side, all Tories are evil, exploitative, baby-eating scum.
There are no balanced opinions on PB
I'll give you a straighforward take on what I am hearing on the doorsteps. This is a betting site - no point in spouting partisan bollocks if people lose money on it.
I'll remind you of what I said in 2015 - that the LibDems in the SW were getting a shellacking. In 2017 I said that the Tories were doing great in Torbay - they stuck 11k on their majority.
What themes I'm hearing so far in 2019 in Totnes:
- Corbyn is toxic - raised spontaneously by multiple voters
- Get Brexit Done chimes with the times
- Swinson is not cutting through with Revoke, which is thought unfair to the 17.4m who voted for Brexit
- I have only had 2 voters reference the Brexit Party - and they were quickly turned back to the blues
- Dr Sarah Wollaston is a "waste of space" - she should have submitted to a by-election when she defected
- oh, and "all you Tories are fucking arseholes"
Odd then how Wollaston got a much bigger % of the vote, even in the 2010 high point of the LDs, than her predecessor in the seat. Obviously being a 'waste of space' appeals to Totnes.
To OGH, OGH jr, TSE, are there any special plans for GE night. I remember 2010 we had a chat channel that was really good fun and gossip, as well as obviously getting the results in ahead of the news channels.
First projections in Spain based on 26% of votes counted show PP and VOX under-performing polls, PSOE doing slightly better and C’s down to 10 seats from 47. It’s LibDems 2015 for them.
Aren't Vox slightly overperforming? They're on about 15% and their best during the campaign was around 12-13%.
No. You asserted it is a measure of poverty. It is for you to support such a ludicrous claim. So far your assertion is based upon no more than the tantrums of 15 year olds.
Was looking for that comment by DH, but couldn’t find it. Did however come across this thread header from mid-June 2017 by @SouthamObserver:
So, to return to the opening line of this piece: if I were a Conservative, I would not be in despair or sorting out my assets to keep them from John McDonnell’s grasp just yet. Instead, I would be asking myself whether places like Leamington and Warwick, Peterborough and Lincoln, Canterbury and Ipswich have irrevocably decided to pledge their allegiances to the red flag, and whether others such as Hastings, Hendon and Milton Keynes really are about to join them.
Having done that, I might just permit myself a smile. Surely, I’d conclude, if the Tories ran a better campaign next time, with a more engaging, confident leader and some positive policies that appeal to voters in the centre, they might just have half a chance. After all, they will be facing a party that gives every impression of having convinced itself that at the next election the British are set do something they have never before done in peacetime: turn dramatically to the left.
The Labour candidate who celebrates the deaths of political opponents has passed the Labour interview and will still remain a candidate for parliament.
I am coming round to the opinion it will not only be brexit that sees Boris win, it will be the combination of his brexit deal and widescale dislike, even fear, of
Ms Sultana.
Is he that toxic? Genuine question this - in some polls Labour has been getting 30%. The election is a month away. Or is it more that he appears to have no clear Brexit policy and Boris does so he suffers as the old guy who’s been around for a while who’s unclear vs the new bouncy guy saying he’ll get it done?
The Tory activists on here are only ever going to run Corbyn down. It probably doesn't matter if Corbyn is good or bad, they will only ever report the worst. On Corbyn's side, all Tories are evil, exploitative, baby-eating scum.
There are no balanced opinions on PB
I think expecting those who have been canvassing to be impartial is a bit of a stretch. The opinions that I most trust (in terms of their predictions at least) are those prepared to bet significant sums on the outcome. They are not alway right, but they are less lightly to be swayed by personal political priorities.
I think Nick Palmer once said that if he wouldn't post anything on here about canvassing that was false, but equally if he went canvassing and it was a disaster for Labour then he might keep it to himself, which seems fair enough. (Apologies if I have this wrong Nick).
David Herdson famously reported a shit canvassing session on the night before the 2017 election. Kudos to him for that.
That was the moment I knew Theresa had blown it
In fact probably the most stand out moment for me on PB
🤔. Did David get poo canvassing sessions all through the campaign or only at last minute?
Over last couple of days as far as I recall but the night before told it all
Why is it after weeks luring us into a sense we know what Is going on general elections flip around at the last minute?
This week's Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week) for week ending 10th November: 8 polls including BMG, Deltapoll, Panelbase, ICM, Opinium and 3 YGs (fieldwork end-dates 4th to 10th Nov):
The Labour candidate who celebrates the deaths of political opponents has passed the Labour interview and will still remain a candidate for parliament.
I am coming round to the opinion it will not only be brexit that sees Boris win, it will be the combination of his brexit deal and widescale dislike, even fear, of
Ms Sultana.
Is he that toxic? Genuine question this - in some polls Labour has been getting 30%. The election is a month away. Or is it more that he appears to have no clear Brexit policy and Boris does so he suffers as the old guy who’s been around for a while who’s unclear vs the new bouncy guy saying he’ll get it done?
The Tory activists on here are only ever going to run Corbyn down. It probably doesn't matter if Corbyn is good or bad, they will only ever report the worst. On Corbyn's side, all Tories are evil, exploitative, baby-eating scum.
There are no balanced opinions on PB
I think expecting those who have been canvassing to be impartial is a bit of a stretch. The opinions that I most trust (in terms of their predictions at least) are those prepared to bet significant sums on the outcome. They are not alway right, but they are less lightly to be swayed by personal political priorities.
I think Nick Palmer once said that if he wouldn't post anything on here about canvassing that was false, but equally if he went canvassing and it was a disaster for Labour then he might keep it to himself, which seems fair enough. (Apologies if I have this wrong Nick).
David Herdson famously reported a shit canvassing session on the night before the 2017 election. Kudos to him for that.
That was the moment I knew Theresa had blown it
In fact probably the most stand out moment for me on PB
🤔. Did David get poo canvassing sessions all through the campaign or only at last minute?
Over last couple of days as far as I recall but the night before told it all
Why is it after weeks luring us into a sense we know what Is going on general elections flip around at the last minute?
With Vaz confirming he is going, the situation of retirements so far is
(sorted by party and age at the end of 2019)
Conservative
Glyn Davies 75 Nicholas Soames 71 Keith Simpson 70 David Tredinnick 69 Bill Grant 68 Michael Fallon 67 Alistair Burt 64 Henry Bellingham 64 David Lidington 63 Alan Duncan 62 Margot James 62 Patrick McLoughlin 62 Richard Harrington 62 Caroline Spelman 61 Hugo Swire 60 Jeremy Lefroy 60 Richard Benyon 59 Sarah Newton 58 Mark Prisk 57 Nick Hurd 57 George Hollingbery 56 Peter Heaton-Jones 56 Claire Perry 55 Mark Field 55 Ed Vaizey 51 Mark Lancaster 49 Jo Johnson 48 Nicky Morgan 47 Seema Kennedy 45
Labour
Ann Clwyd 82 Geoffrey Robinson 81 Jim Cunningham 78 Ronnie Campbell 76 Adrian Bailey 74 Kate Hoey 73 Kevin Barron 73 Stephen Pound 71 Jim Fitzpatrick 67 Helen Jones 65 Teresa Pearce 64 Keith Vaz 63 Roberta Blackman-Woods 62 Albert Owen 60 Stephen Twigg 60 Ian Lucas 59 John Mann 59 Paul Farrelly 57 Tom Watson 52 Owen Smith 49 Gloria De Piero 47
LD
Vince Cable 76 Norman Lamb 62 Heidi Allen 44
Ind and co ex Con
Kenneth Clarke 79 Philip Hammond 64 Oliver Letwin 63 Margot James 62 Amber Rudd 56 Nick Boles 54 Guto Bebb 51 Justine Greening 50 Charlie Elphicke 48 David Gauke 48 Rory Stewart 46
Suspended Lab
Kelvin Hopkins 78
Ind and co ex Lab
Louise Ellman 74 Ann Coffey 73 Joan Ryan 64 Ian Austin 54 John Woodcock 41
The Labour candidate who celebrates the deaths of political opponents has passed the Labour interview and will still remain a candidate for parliament.
I am coming round to the opinion it will not only be brexit that sees Boris win, it will be the combination of his brexit deal and widescale dislike, even fear, of Corbyn
This stuff isn't getting much of an airing though. I bet if you asked most of the public, they would have no idea about Ms Sultana, more a general well Labour have been accused of anti-Jew stuff in the past.
Whatever it is - anti-semitism, pro-IRA, pro-the UK's enemies, bat-shit crazy economic policies - or a combination of bits of all - Corbyn is toxic on the doorstep this time. Much more so than 2017.
Is he that toxic? Genuine question this - in some polls Labour has been getting 30%. The election is a month away.
I just wonder how much of the smelly stuff around him is really making a difference .
The Tory activists on here are only ever going to run Corbyn down. It probably doesn't matter if Corbyn is good or bad, they will only ever report the worst. On Corbyn's side, all Tories are evil, exploitative, baby-eating scum.
There are no balanced opinions on PB
I think expecting those who have been canvassing to be impartial is a bit of a stretch. The opinions that I most trust (in terms of their predictions at least) are those prepared to bet significant sums on the outcome. They are not alway right, but they are less lightly to be swayed by personal political priorities.
I think Nick Palmer once said that if he wouldn't post anything on here about canvassing that was false, but equally if he went canvassing and it was a disaster for Labour then he might keep it to himself, which seems fair enough. (Apologies if I have this wrong Nick).
David Herdson famously reported a shit canvassing session on the night before the 2017 election. Kudos to him for that.
I put £10 on NOM on the strength of that.
For one moment I thought a shit canvassing session was a misplaced reference to the other thread about the sexual proclivities of Devon Tories.
This week's Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week) for week ending 10th November: 8 polls including BMG, Deltapoll, Panelbase, ICM, Opinium and 3 YGs (fieldwork end-dates 4th to 10th Nov):
This week's Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week) for week ending 10th November: 8 polls including BMG, Deltapoll, Panelbase, ICM, Opinium and 3 YGs (fieldwork end-dates 4th to 10th Nov):
This week's Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week) for week ending 10th November: 8 polls including BMG, Deltapoll, Panelbase, ICM, Opinium and 3 YGs (fieldwork end-dates 4th to 10th Nov):
Was looking for that comment by DH, but couldn’t find it. Did however come across this thread header from mid-June 2017 by @SouthamObserver:
So, to return to the opening line of this piece: if I were a Conservative, I would not be in despair or sorting out my assets to keep them from John McDonnell’s grasp just yet. Instead, I would be asking myself whether places like Leamington and Warwick, Peterborough and Lincoln, Canterbury and Ipswich have irrevocably decided to pledge their allegiances to the red flag, and whether others such as Hastings, Hendon and Milton Keynes really are about to join them.
Having done that, I might just permit myself a smile. Surely, I’d conclude, if the Tories ran a better campaign next time, with a more engaging, confident leader and some positive policies that appeal to voters in the centre, they might just have half a chance. After all, they will be facing a party that gives every impression of having convinced itself that at the next election the British are set do something they have never before done in peacetime: turn dramatically to the left.
david_herdson said: Just come back from last-minute leafleting. Change of mind on earlier. I think Corbyn is just going to do this. The polls are right. Con 300.
Still think we'll take Wakefield due to Creagh's idiocy/principled stand (delete as preferred) over triggering A50.
Followed by the usual meltdown from everybody else.
Well, Boris has the charlie vote already stitched up so a little fun at Keith's expense won't do any harm.
It's strange how BoJO can get up to all his hedonistic, illicit, immoral, mendacious behaviour, and poor old Keith is vilified.....life just ain't fair...
Well, Boris has the charlie vote already stitched up so a little fun at Keith's expense won't do any harm.
It's strange how BoJO can get up to all his hedonistic, illicit, immoral, mendacious behaviour, and poor old Keith is vilified.....life just ain't fair...
Boris is an immoral chancer. Vaz is a crook. There is a difference, although neither are fit for public office.
With Vaz confirming he is going, the situation of retirements so far is
(sorted by party and age at the end of 2019)
Conservative
Glyn Davies 75 Nicholas Soames 71 Keith Simpson 70 David Tredinnick 69 Bill Grant 68 Michael Fallon 67 Alistair Burt 64 Henry Bellingham 64 David Lidington 63 Alan Duncan 62 Margot James 62 Patrick McLoughlin 62 Richard Harrington 62 Caroline Spelman 61 Hugo Swire 60 Jeremy Lefroy 60 Richard Benyon 59 Sarah Newton 58 Mark Prisk 57 Nick Hurd 57 George Hollingbery 56 Peter Heaton-Jones 56 Claire Perry 55 Mark Field 55 Ed Vaizey 51 Mark Lancaster 49 Jo Johnson 48 Nicky Morgan 47 Seema Kennedy 45
Labour
Ann Clwyd 82 Geoffrey Robinson 81 Jim Cunningham 78 Ronnie Campbell 76 Adrian Bailey 74 Kate Hoey 73 Kevin Barron 73 Stephen Pound 71 Jim Fitzpatrick 67 Helen Jones 65 Teresa Pearce 64 Keith Vaz 63 Roberta Blackman-Woods 62 Albert Owen 60 Stephen Twigg 60 Ian Lucas 59 John Mann 59 Paul Farrelly 57 Tom Watson 52 Owen Smith 49 Gloria De Piero 47
LD
Vince Cable 76 Norman Lamb 62 Heidi Allen 44
Ind and co ex Con
Kenneth Clarke 79 Philip Hammond 64 Oliver Letwin 63 Margot James 62 Amber Rudd 56 Nick Boles 54 Guto Bebb 51 Justine Greening 50 Charlie Elphicke 48 David Gauke 48 Rory Stewart 46
Suspended Lab
Kelvin Hopkins 78
Ind and co ex Lab
Louise Ellman 74 Ann Coffey 73 Joan Ryan 64 Ian Austin 54 John Woodcock 41
Northern Ireland
Sylvia Hermon 64 David Simpson 60
Other
John Bercow 56
@AndreaParma_82 , you are as always a grace to this site. Thank you for the rather sad list. Truly a watershed, and possibly a realigning, election
Does anyone know the best way to reclaim your money from cheeky utility companies?
I left Ovo on 23rd October and they’re sitting on over £700 of my money, and still collecting direct debits (i cancelled yesterday).
They are telling me it will take “4-6 weeks to issue a final statement” and then “another week” to refund me any monies owed.
They’ve given me some weasel excuse about that being a ‘standard procedure’. I want them to pull their finger out and stop using my money to aid the cash flow of their business. I bet they’ve had my final meter readings for just as long as my new provider has, which I sent in on 22nd October.
Any merit in threatening them with the small claims court?
Thanks Charles. They are getting around that by not issuing the bill for six weeks (a consumer demand, but something Ofgem refused to insist on) so they thereby do meet the criteria of issuing a full refund within 2 weeks, but make you wait up to seven weeks from the switch to receive it!
It's a racket.
If you had a variable payment authority set up you might be able to get the last payment back from your bank if it was taken without authority (ie after you had left)
Cheers. Will look into that.
You’ll need evidence they have refused to refund you
PSOE 120 seats PP 87 Vox 52 Podemos 35 Republican Left of Catalonia 13 Citizens 10 Together for Catalonia 8 Basque Nationalist Party 7 Basque Country Unite 5 Mas Pais (leftish) 3 Canarian Coalition–Canarian Nationalist Party 3 Popular Unity Candidacy–For Rupture (another Catalonia independence outfit) 2 Navarra Suma 2 Galician Nationalist Bloc 1 Regionalist Party of Cantabria 1 Teruel Exists 1 Coalition for Melilla 1
The “threat and intimidation” amounts to saying “we will defend ourselves if you take us to court and, if we win, we will seek costs”
It is so very sad. They are very bitter and seeking people to blame
Unfortunately Trump will not allow her back here but to be honest he did afford them a chance to meet to seek explanations and even a small path to reconcilliation but that door is closed now
I am so sorry for them, but I do not see a way forward unless they themselves can see it, maybe and hopefully in time
The “threat and intimidation” amounts to saying “we will defend ourselves if you take us to court and, if we win, we will seek costs”
It is so very sad. They are very bitter and seeking people to blame
Unfortunately Trump will not allow her back here but to be honest he did afford them a chance to meet to seek explanations and even a small path to reconcilliation but that door is closed now
I am so sorry for them, but I do not see a way forward unless they themselves can see it, maybe and hopefully in time
Labour activists are urging Jeremy Corbyn to incorporate the radical pro-migration policy passed at the party’s conference into its manifesto this week as the Tories prepare to weaponise the issue in the election battle.
Labour activists call on Corbyn to push radical stance on migration
The “threat and intimidation” amounts to saying “we will defend ourselves if you take us to court and, if we win, we will seek costs”
It is so very sad. They are very bitter and seeking people to blame
Unfortunately Trump will not allow her back here but to be honest he did afford them a chance to meet to seek explanations and even a small path to reconcilliation but that door is closed now
I am so sorry for them, but I do not see a way forward unless they themselves can see it, maybe and hopefully in time
No. Trump ambushed them and they responded with a lot more dignity than would most in that situation. If, as they say, they have legal opinion saying that the private agreements between the US and UK governments (which extend diplomatic immunity to this case) have no status in law, then it would be wholly inappropriate to seek costs as a sly attempt to warn them off. I do not know if this will affect voters, but if it encourages one voter to abandon Raab it should be used.
The “threat and intimidation” amounts to saying “we will defend ourselves if you take us to court and, if we win, we will seek costs”
It is so very sad. They are very bitter and seeking people to blame
Unfortunately Trump will not allow her back here but to be honest he did afford them a chance to meet to seek explanations and even a small path to reconcilliation but that door is closed now
I am so sorry for them, but I do not see a way forward unless they themselves can see it, maybe and hopefully in time
No. Trump ambushed them and they responded with a lot more dignity than would most in that situation. If, as they say, they have legal opinion saying that the private agreements between the US and UK governments (which extend diplomatic immunity to this case) have no status in law, then it would be wholly inappropriate to seek costs as a sly attempt to warn them off. I do not know if this will affect voters, but if it encourages one voter to abandon Raab it should be used.
In the High Court costs generally follow the event. Not seeking costs would be more unusual
Bastani is obviously putting a very optimistic spin on this. But I think I can explain explain why, from my perspective at least, many people in Labour are at least cautiously optimistic about polls like this even when they show the Tories widening their lead.
For Labour to do well, probably three different things were always required:
1. The focus isn't entirely on Brexit, allowing some votes to flow back from the LDs. 2. Their policies and overall electoral sales pitch are better received than the Tories' 3. (Unless the first two go *extremely well*) They outperform the polls- either by getting a higher percentage than expected or a more efficient vote distribution than expected or both.
We'll only really know about 3. on the day (though the signs are optimistic in terms of fundraising and volunteering for Momentum, who hope to have a really impactful canvassing and GOTV operation). It's also probably somewhat too early for 2.- that's going to be driven by the manifestos, debate performance, etc. So the focus is really on 1, and that's what the polls are, at least tenatively, pointing towards.
That doesn't mean the rest of the dominos will fall- each of those three things is its own separate battle- but to be honest if we had started seeing movement in the direction some people here had predicted where more voters started switching from Lab to LD, then this would pretty much be over before it began. So: relief, cautious optimism.
The “threat and intimidation” amounts to saying “we will defend ourselves if you take us to court and, if we win, we will seek costs”
It is so very sad. They are very bitter and seeking people to blame
Unfortunately Trump will not allow her back here but to be honest he did afford them a chance to meet to seek explanations and even a small path to reconcilliation but that door is closed now
I am so sorry for them, but I do not see a way forward unless they themselves can see it, maybe and hopefully in time
No. Trump ambushed them and they responded with a lot more dignity than would most in that stuation. If, as they say, they have legal opinion saying that the private agreements between the US and UK governments (which extend diplomatic immunity to this case) have no status in law, then it would be wholly inappropriate to seek costs as a sly attempt to warn them off. I do not know if this will affect voters, but if it encourages one voter to abandon Raab it should be used.
The “threat and intimidation” amounts to saying “we will defend ourselves if you take us to court and, if we win, we will seek costs”
It is so very sad. They are very bitter and seeking people to blame
Unfortunately Trump will not allow her back here but to be honest he did afford them a chance to meet to seek explanations and even a small path to reconcilliation but that door is closed now
I am so sorry for them, but I do not see a way forward unless they themselves can see it, maybe and hopefully in time
No. Trump ambushed them and they responded with a lot more dignity than would most in that situation. If, as they say, they have legal opinion saying that the private agreements between the US and UK governments (which extend diplomatic immunity to this case) have no status in law, then it would be wholly inappropriate to seek costs as a sly attempt to warn them off. I do not know if this will affect voters, but if it encourages one voter to abandon Raab it should be used.
Surely, this could be crowd funded? That is what I would do.
The “threat and intimidation” amounts to saying “we will defend ourselves if you take us to court and, if we win, we will seek costs”
It is so very sad. They are very bitter and seeking people to blame
Unfortunately Trump will not allow her back here but to be honest he did afford them a chance to meet to seek explanations and even a small path to reconcilliation but that door is closed now
I am so sorry for them, but I do not see a way forward unless they themselves can see it, maybe and hopefully in time
No. Trump ambushed them and they responded with a lot more dignity than would most in that stuation. If, as they say, they have legal opinion saying that the private agreements between the US and UK governments (which extend diplomatic immunity to this case) have no status in law, then it would be wholly inappropriate to seek costs as a sly attempt to warn them off. I do not know if this will affect voters, but if it encourages one voter to abandon Raab it should be used.
Your dislike of Raab maybe colours your judgement
The woman drives on the wrong side of the road, kills one of our citizens and then flies home claiming diplomatic immunity! So much for America being our closest ally...
The “threat and intimidation” amounts to saying “we will defend ourselves if you take us to court and, if we win, we will seek costs”
It is so very sad. They are very bitter and seeking people to blame
Unfortunately Trump will not allow her back here but to be honest he did afford them a chance to meet to seek explanations and even a small path to reconcilliation but that door is closed now
I am so sorry for them, but I do not see a way forward unless they themselves can see it, maybe and hopefully in time
No. Trump ambushed them and they responded with a lot more dignity than would most in that situation. If, as they say, they have legal opinion saying that the private agreements between the US and UK governments (which extend diplomatic immunity to this case) have no status in law, then it would be wholly inappropriate to seek costs as a sly attempt to warn them off. I do not know if this will affect voters, but if it encourages one voter to abandon Raab it should be used.
In the High Court costs generally follow the event. Not seeking costs would be more unusual
However there is precedent for High Court costs not to be awarded where the court accepts the case raises issues in the public interest. I can think of few cases more in the public interest than testing the legality of private agreements which enable someone to avoid the consequences of causing a death. In such a case it is wholly inappropriate for a government to seek costs and it should waive its right at outset rather than threaten with the obvious intention of avoiding scrutiny.
Bastani is obviously putting a very optimistic spin on this. But I think I can explain explain why, from my perspective at least, many people in Labour are at least cautiously optimistic about polls like this even when they show the Tories widening their lead.
For Labour to do well, probably three different things were always required:
1. The focus isn't entirely on Brexit, allowing some votes to flow back from the LDs. 2. Their policies and overall electoral sales pitch are better received than the Tories' 3. (Unless the first two go *extremely well*) They outperform the polls- either by getting a higher percentage than expected or a more efficient vote distribution than expected or both.
We'll only really know about 3. on the day (though the signs are optimistic in terms of fundraising and volunteering for Momentum, who hope to have a really impactful canvassing and GOTV operation). It's also probably somewhat too early for 2.- that's going to be driven by the manifestos, debate performance, etc. So the focus is really on 1, and that's what the polls are, at least tenatively, pointing towards.
That doesn't mean the rest of the dominos will fall- each of those three things is its own separate battle- but to be honest if we had started seeing movement in the direction some people here had predicted where more voters started switching from Lab to LD, then this would pretty much be over before it began. So: relief, cautious optimism.
Labour start from a position of weakness but you correctly identify the ingredients are there to save them from disaster. A very good point that they have avoided the initial danger of leaching votes to the LDs. Swinson has not had a good start to the campaign, she really needed to be racing out of the blocks but the Brexit policy looks to have been a bit of a misfire as it’s crowding out their ability to talk about other issues.
How many MPs do we have stranding at this election for parties they did not stand for at the last election? Off the top of my head, we have:
Tiggers - Gapes, Wollaston, Soubry - all in same constituency Tiggers-turned-LDs - Chukka, Smith (was she a tigger?) - both in different constituencies (any others?) Lab-turned-ind: Williamson, Godsdiff - both in same constituency. Con-turned-ind: Grieve - same constutuency
Any others? Ordinarily I'd have a fairly good idea on where all the anomalies like these were, but that's because ordinarily you'd only have one or two at most. Politics is currently far too eventful to keep track of!
The “threat and intimidation” amounts to saying “we will defend ourselves if you take us to court and, if we win, we will seek costs”
It is so very sad. They are very bitter and seeking people to blame
Unfortunately Trump will not allow her back here but to be honest he did afford them a chance to meet to seek explanations and even a small path to reconcilliation but that door is closed now
I am so sorry for them, but I do not see a way forward unless they themselves can see it, maybe and hopefully in time
What, they are seeking people to blame when really there aren't any? And an opportunistic offer of a "chance to meet to seek explanations" should have reconciled them to the killing of their son?
Is he that toxic? Genuine question this - in some polls Labour has been getting 30%. The election is a month away. Or is it more that he appears to have no clear Brexit policy and Boris does so he suffers as the old guy who’s been around for a while who’s unclear vs the new bouncy guy saying he’ll get it done?
The Tory activists on here are only ever going to run Corbyn down. It probably doesn't matter if Corbyn is good or bad, they will only ever report the worst. On Corbyn's side, all Tories are evil, exploitative, baby-eating scum.
There are no balanced opinions on PB
I think expecting those who have been canvassing to be impartial is a bit of a stretch. The opinions that I most trust (in terms of their predictions at least) are those prepared to bet significant sums on the outcome. They are not alway right, but they are less lightly to be swayed by personal political priorities.
I think Nick Palmer once said that if he wouldn't post anything on here about canvassing that was false, but equally if he went canvassing and it was a disaster for Labour then he might keep it to himself, which seems fair enough. (Apologies if I have this wrong Nick).
David Herdson famously reported a shit canvassing session on the night before the 2017 election. Kudos to him for that.
That was the moment I knew Theresa had blown it
In fact probably the most stand out moment for me on PB
🤔. Did David get poo canvassing sessions all through the campaign or only at last minute?
Over last couple of days as far as I recall but the night before told it all
Why is it after weeks luring us into a sense we know what Is going on general elections flip around at the last minute?
Probably because the don't knows fall one way or the other, and because late canvassing goes back over old ground and thus detects changes.
How many MPs do we have stranding at this election for parties they did not stand for at the last election? Off the top of my head, we have:
Tiggers - Gapes, Wollaston, Soubry - all in same constituency Tiggers-turned-LDs - Chukka, Smith (was she a tigger?) - both in different constituencies (any others?) Lab-turned-ind: Williamson, Godsdiff - both in same constituency. Con-turned-ind: Grieve - same constutuency
Any others? Ordinarily I'd have a fairly good idea on where all the anomalies like these were, but that's because ordinarily you'd only have one or two at most. Politics is currently far too eventful to keep track of!
With Vaz confirming he is going, the situation of retirements so far is
(sorted by party and age at the end of 2019)
Conservative
Glyn Davies 75 Nicholas Soames 71 Keith Simpson 70 David Tredinnick 69 Bill Grant 68 Michael Fallon 67 Alistair Burt 64 Henry Bellingham 64 David Lidington 63 Alan Duncan 62 Margot James 62 Patrick McLoughlin 62 Richard Harrington 62 Caroline Spelman 61 Hugo Swire 60 Jeremy Lefroy 60 Richard Benyon 59 Sarah Newton 58 Mark Prisk 57 Nick Hurd 57 George Hollingbery 56 Peter Heaton-Jones 56 Claire Perry 55 Mark Field 55 Ed Vaizey 51 Mark Lancaster 49 Jo Johnson 48 Nicky Morgan 47 Seema Kennedy 45
Labour
Ann Clwyd 82 Geoffrey Robinson 81 Jim Cunningham 78 Ronnie Campbell 76 Adrian Bailey 74 Kate Hoey 73 Kevin Barron 73 Stephen Pound 71 Jim Fitzpatrick 67 Helen Jones 65 Teresa Pearce 64 Keith Vaz 63 Roberta Blackman-Woods 62 Albert Owen 60 Stephen Twigg 60 Ian Lucas 59 John Mann 59 Paul Farrelly 57 Tom Watson 52 Owen Smith 49 Gloria De Piero 47
LD
Vince Cable 76 Norman Lamb 62 Heidi Allen 44
Ind and co ex Con
Kenneth Clarke 79 Philip Hammond 64 Oliver Letwin 63 Margot James 62 Amber Rudd 56 Nick Boles 54 Guto Bebb 51 Justine Greening 50 Charlie Elphicke 48 David Gauke 48 Rory Stewart 46
Suspended Lab
Kelvin Hopkins 78
Ind and co ex Lab
Louise Ellman 74 Ann Coffey 73 Joan Ryan 64 Ian Austin 54 John Woodcock 41
Northern Ireland
Sylvia Hermon 64 David Simpson 60
Other
John Bercow 56
@AndreaParma_82 , you are as always a grace to this site. Thank you for the rather sad list. Truly a watershed, and possibly a realigning, election
Comments
However, I'm firmly on the Boris/Con camp for Election 2019.
Good night.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1188439200762388482
Sounds very odd!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HB-Kkvf5j5Y
And it is very odd
My misses will go ape if it is.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7670683/Shamed-Keith-Vaz-QUITS-Commons.html
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-us-national-anthem-forget-words-football-game-alabama-a9197196.html?amp
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3zIEcC60ZqY
https://resultados.10noviembre2019.es/Congreso/Total-nacional/0/es
How about.a discord channel?
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/07/your-essential-thursday-evening-companion-andyjss-general-election-spreadsheet/
CON 38.75% (+0.87)
LAB 28.00% (+1.67)
LD 15.88% (-0.12)
BXP 8.75% (-1.67)
Changes vs. last Sunday.
Take-home: BXP getting squeezed, LDs flatlining, LAB and CON both up.
(sorted by party and age at the end of 2019)
Conservative
Glyn Davies 75
Nicholas Soames 71
Keith Simpson 70
David Tredinnick 69
Bill Grant 68
Michael Fallon 67
Alistair Burt 64
Henry Bellingham 64
David Lidington 63
Alan Duncan 62
Margot James 62
Patrick McLoughlin 62
Richard Harrington 62
Caroline Spelman 61
Hugo Swire 60
Jeremy Lefroy 60
Richard Benyon 59
Sarah Newton 58
Mark Prisk 57
Nick Hurd 57
George Hollingbery 56
Peter Heaton-Jones 56
Claire Perry 55
Mark Field 55
Ed Vaizey 51
Mark Lancaster 49
Jo Johnson 48
Nicky Morgan 47
Seema Kennedy 45
Labour
Ann Clwyd 82
Geoffrey Robinson 81
Jim Cunningham 78
Ronnie Campbell 76
Adrian Bailey 74
Kate Hoey 73
Kevin Barron 73
Stephen Pound 71
Jim Fitzpatrick 67
Helen Jones 65
Teresa Pearce 64
Keith Vaz 63
Roberta Blackman-Woods 62
Albert Owen 60
Stephen Twigg 60
Ian Lucas 59
John Mann 59
Paul Farrelly 57
Tom Watson 52
Owen Smith 49
Gloria De Piero 47
LD
Vince Cable 76
Norman Lamb 62
Heidi Allen 44
Ind and co ex Con
Kenneth Clarke 79
Philip Hammond 64
Oliver Letwin 63
Margot James 62
Amber Rudd 56
Nick Boles 54
Guto Bebb 51
Justine Greening 50
Charlie Elphicke 48
David Gauke 48
Rory Stewart 46
Suspended Lab
Kelvin Hopkins 78
Ind and co ex Lab
Louise Ellman 74
Ann Coffey 73
Joan Ryan 64
Ian Austin 54
John Woodcock 41
Northern Ireland
Sylvia Hermon 64
David Simpson 60
Other
John Bercow 56
CON 42.67
LAB 35.51
LD 15.34
BXP 1.24
Seems quite believable.
Loss of office payment is not available anymore to MPs not standing again.
10.75% (-0.50 on last Sunday)
david_herdson said:
Just come back from last-minute leafleting. Change of mind on earlier. I think Corbyn is just going to do this. The polls are right. Con 300.
Still think we'll take Wakefield due to Creagh's idiocy/principled stand (delete as preferred) over triggering A50.
Followed by the usual meltdown from everybody else.
PSOE 120 seats
PP 87
Vox 52
Podemos 35
Republican Left of Catalonia 13
Citizens 10
Together for Catalonia 8
Basque Nationalist Party 7
Basque Country Unite 5
Mas Pais (leftish) 3
Canarian Coalition–Canarian Nationalist Party 3
Popular Unity Candidacy–For Rupture (another Catalonia independence outfit) 2
Navarra Suma 2
Galician Nationalist Bloc 1
Regionalist Party of Cantabria 1
Teruel Exists 1
Coalition for Melilla 1
Unfortunately Trump will not allow her back here but to be honest he did afford them a chance to meet to seek explanations and even a small path to reconcilliation but that door is closed now
I am so sorry for them, but I do not see a way forward unless they themselves can see it, maybe and hopefully in time
Interesting it is from a LD perspective.
Labour activists call on Corbyn to push radical stance on migration
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/10/labour-activists-call-on-jeremy-corbyn-to-push-radical-stance-on-migration
Grime4Corbyn artists step back from new campaign for Labour
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2019/nov/10/grime4corbyn-artists-step-back-from-new-campaign-for-labour
I have said a couple of times that this may not be so much Brexit but stop Corbyn election
Boris repeats ad infinitum, only a vote for the conservatives will keep Corbyn out of no 10
For Labour to do well, probably three different things were always required:
1. The focus isn't entirely on Brexit, allowing some votes to flow back from the LDs.
2. Their policies and overall electoral sales pitch are better received than the Tories'
3. (Unless the first two go *extremely well*) They outperform the polls- either by getting a higher percentage than expected or a more efficient vote distribution than expected or both.
We'll only really know about 3. on the day (though the signs are optimistic in terms of fundraising and volunteering for Momentum, who hope to have a really impactful canvassing and GOTV operation). It's also probably somewhat too early for 2.- that's going to be driven by the manifestos, debate performance, etc. So the focus is really on 1, and that's what the polls are, at least tenatively, pointing towards.
That doesn't mean the rest of the dominos will fall- each of those three things is its own separate battle- but to be honest if we had started seeing movement in the direction some people here had predicted where more voters started switching from Lab to LD, then this would pretty much be over before it began. So: relief, cautious optimism.
Tiggers - Gapes, Wollaston, Soubry - all in same constituency
Tiggers-turned-LDs - Chukka, Smith (was she a tigger?) - both in different constituencies (any others?)
Lab-turned-ind: Williamson, Godsdiff - both in same constituency.
Con-turned-ind: Grieve - same constutuency
Any others? Ordinarily I'd have a fairly good idea on where all the anomalies like these were, but that's because ordinarily you'd only have one or two at most. Politics is currently far too eventful to keep track of!
Patronising twit.