The Labour candidate who celebrates the deaths of political opponents has passed the Labour interview and will still remain a candidate for parliament.
Labour appear to be not so much throwing away what should be safe seats lightly as hurling them with great force. Bullying out a candidate in Bassetlaw and keeping certifiable lunatics in Coventry and Rother Valley is just...bizarre.
The contrast between them and thr Tories, whi have very quickly ditched candidates, is striking.
PSOE and Podemos lack a majority in Spanish exit polls, as do PP and Citizens and Vox. Catalan nationalists hold the balance of power ironically but PP and Vox up and Citizens down
Casado has three dilemmas which he is failing to resolve:
1) Before April he tacked to the Right to counter the rise of VOX and ended up losing moderate centre and centre-right votes to Citizens.
2) Since April he has gone back to the centre and while he has gained support on the moderate side from Citizens he has lost votes on the right to VOX.
3) As he has tried both, he is neither trusted by Citizens nor VOX thus making his chances of getting the PP back into Govenrment very slim.
Sanchez has a similar problem on the centre-left and left. United Podemos would not support him after April and now the left will make a small net loss leaving Sanchez still leader of the largest party but nowhere near a majority.
VOX are seen by 15% as the answer - I'm not sure anyone has quite figured out the question.
As I said on Wednesday, the only viable coalition is PSOE-PP.
PSOE and Podemos lack a majority in Spanish exit polls, as do PP and Citizens and Vox. Catalan nationalists hold the balance of power ironically but PP and Vox up and Citizens down
Casado has three dilemmas which he is failing to resolve:
1) Before April he tacked to the Right to counter the rise of VOX and ended up losing moderate centre and centre-right votes to Citizens.
2) Since April he has gone back to the centre and while he has gained support on the moderate side from Citizens he has lost votes on the right to VOX.
3) As he has tried both, he is neither trusted by Citizens nor VOX thus making his chances of getting the PP back into Govenrment very slim.
Sanchez has a similar problem on the centre-left and left. United Podemos would not support him after April and now the left will make a small net loss leaving Sanchez still leader of the largest party but nowhere near a majority.
VOX are seen by 15% as the answer - I'm not sure anyone has quite figured out the question.
As I said on Wednesday, the only viable coalition is PSOE-PP.
Ironically if no PSOE PP deal agreed then Catalan nationalists hold the balance of power in the exit polls, even as the PP and Vox increase their vote on a hardline Spanish unity ticket
The Labour candidate who celebrates the deaths of political opponents has passed the Labour interview and will still remain a candidate for parliament.
I am coming round to the opinion it will not only be brexit that sees Boris win, it will be the combination of his brexit deal and widescale dislike, even fear, of Corbyn
This stuff isn't getting much of an airing though. I bet if you asked most of the public, they would have no idea about Ms Sultana, more a general well Labour have been accused of anti-Jew stuff in the past.
Anyone with any respect for people who've died for their country. People unlike Noo, in other words.
Even Berlusconi made sure he was properly dressed. Even Trump fastens his coat. No Tory PM EVER has looked such a lout at the Cenotaph ceremony.
Johnson actually managed to let Corbyn look more respectful. And to make the LibDem look more like a real Prime Minister.
Churchill must be turning in his grave
Boris is the Tories' Michael Foot!
Boris is the Tories new Thatcher, on current polling he will win the biggest Tory majority to since she was leader in 1987.
Corbyn is polling no better than Foot did in 1983
More like the Tories’ Lloyd George.
And perhaps with similar consequences for the party.
Only if he does not deliver Brexit...
Is that by the Royal Mail, Yodel, or caesarean ?
You world has a naive simplicity which is almost charming.
Brexit can’t be delivered by Caesarean. If the only way it can be done is via Boris Johnson, that means it will be a natural birth as it’s coming through a c[MODERATED]
Think you're seriously underrating Laura Pidcock. My sense is that we are at the start of something with her. She could be the special one.
Course I might be wrong - but I have been paying attention and it's my genuine opinion based on what my eyes and ears have respectively seen and heard in recent days and weeks.
The Labour candidate who celebrates the deaths of political opponents has passed the Labour interview and will still remain a candidate for parliament.
I am coming round to the opinion it will not only be brexit that sees Boris win, it will be the combination of his brexit deal and widescale dislike, even fear, of Corbyn
This stuff isn't getting much of an airing though. I bet if you asked most of the public, they would have no idea about Ms Sultana, more a general well Labour have been accused of anti-Jew stuff in the past.
Yes I agree but Corbyn is now the one suffering unpopularity, probably for many reasons but I cannot see how he recovers to an electable level.
The election is only 4 weeks this coming thursday away
Because Boris and Brexit are very divisive. May was crap, but didn't bring out the irrational hatred in the way Boris does among some and Brexit is even more divisive now and Remainers can see a path to stopping it.
Stopping Brexit? How?
Boris will get a majority and his Europhobic party will pass his deal.
Because Boris and Brexit are very divisive. May was crap, but didn't bring out the irrational hatred in the way Boris does among some and Brexit is even more divisive now and Remainers can see a path to stopping it.
Stopping Brexit? How?
Boris will get a majority and his Europhobic party will pass his deal.
If Labour / Lib Dem / SNP get a larger number of seats than the Tories, Brexit will be stopped. Or at least that is how a lot of people will see it.
The Labour candidate who celebrates the deaths of political opponents has passed the Labour interview and will still remain a candidate for parliament.
I am coming round to the opinion it will not only be brexit that sees Boris win, it will be the combination of his brexit deal and widescale dislike, even fear, of Corbyn
This stuff isn't getting much of an airing though. I bet if you asked most of the public, they would have no idea about Ms Sultana, more a general well Labour have been accused of anti-Jew stuff in the past.
Presumably local campaigning will focus heavily on the prospect of electing the next Jared O'Mara? Nationally it shouldn't really matter that much anyway.
Of course that requires educating the voters about how godawful Mr O'Mara is.
Think you're seriously underrating Laura Pidcock. My sense is that we are at the start of something with her. She could be the special one.
Course I might be wrong - but I have been paying attention and it's my genuine opinion based on what my eyes and ears have respectively seen and heard in recent days and weeks.
I think she has the ability to inspire the Labour base and lead a radical left-wing party.
What she certainly doesn’t have the ability to do is reach out to swing voters. She’s so aggressively tribal that she regards everyone who is not 100% for her as against her. Nothing could be a bigger turnoff to us than her self-righteous hectoring.
She also doesn’t seem to have particularly good political instincts. Disappearing to Italy and missing a vote on welfare was a serious mis-step.
The first hurdle she may face in any case is holding her seat.
The Labour candidate who celebrates the deaths of political opponents has passed the Labour interview and will still remain a candidate for parliament.
I am coming round to the opinion it will not only be brexit that sees Boris win, it will be the combination of his brexit deal and widescale dislike, even fear, of Corbyn
This stuff isn't getting much of an airing though. I bet if you asked most of the public, they would have no idea about Ms Sultana, more a general well Labour have been accused of anti-Jew stuff in the past.
Yes I agree but Corbyn is now the one suffering unpopularity, probably for many reasons but I cannot see how he recovers to an electable level.
The election is only 4 weeks this coming thursday away
I wish I was as confident.
There is a real issue with lower middle class wage stagnation etc and superficially his socialism dedux sounds good especially as he had 40 years rehearsing the same lines to get it down to a decent sounding pitch.
The Labour candidate who celebrates the deaths of political opponents has passed the Labour interview and will still remain a candidate for parliament.
I am coming round to the opinion it will not only be brexit that sees Boris win, it will be the combination of his brexit deal and widescale dislike, even fear, of Corbyn
This stuff isn't getting much of an airing though. I bet if you asked most of the public, they would have no idea about Ms Sultana, more a general well Labour have been accused of anti-Jew stuff in the past.
It's getting noted in Coventry South.
Well, at least it’s raisin her profile, even if if it is hardly a story to her grape credit.
Think you're seriously underrating Laura Pidcock. My sense is that we are at the start of something with her. She could be the special one.
Course I might be wrong - but I have been paying attention and it's my genuine opinion based on what my eyes and ears have respectively seen and heard in recent days and weeks.
If she wins Labour will be back to its inner city core even more than with Corbyn, the LDs would become the main alternative to the Tories in suburbs and rural areas and wealthier urban areas
Labour out to 13 on most seats...quite extraordinary really
More polling incoming?
I dont get this- someone working at a polling company with inside knowledge of a poll which it used to bet would be breaking the law.....how many people would have access to such information and be willing to act on it? cant imagine its a thing
Ironically if no PSOE PP deal agreed then Catalan nationalists hold the balance of power in the exit polls, even as the PP and Vox increase their vote on a hardline Spanish unity ticket
Casado has burnt his bridges with both Citizens and VOX since April so it may be for both him and Sanchez the Spanish version of a "grand coalition" has some appeal. It would make VOX the leading opposition party which is basically how it started with the likes of Lega and the Freedom Party and the AfD.
If the old parties combine to keep the new populist party out of power it just allows them to grow stronger in opposition.
Labour out to 13 on most seats...quite extraordinary really
More polling incoming?
I dont get this- someone working at a polling company with inside knowledge of a poll which it used to bet would be breaking the law.....how many people would have access to such information and be willing to act on it? cant imagine its a thing
We have seen it in the past. We even at one point have a poster pop up a few hours before a poll was published and give a massive hint what to expect.
Labour out to 13 on most seats...quite extraordinary really
I misread that for a moment and was very startled. I know Labour are not doing as well as they’d hoped, but I am expecting them to win more than 13 seats.
You can't afford for your teenage daughter to have a phone. Every other girl at school has one. It's how they banter and bitch, how they make plans, how they communicate basically.
But she doesn't have one. She's excluded from all of that. Because her parents can't afford it.
Labour out to 13 on most seats...quite extraordinary really
More polling incoming?
I dont get this- someone working at a polling company with inside knowledge of a poll which it used to bet would be breaking the law.....how many people would have access to such information and be willing to act on it? cant imagine its a thing
Think you're seriously underrating Laura Pidcock. My sense is that we are at the start of something with her. She could be the special one.
Course I might be wrong - but I have been paying attention and it's my genuine opinion based on what my eyes and ears have respectively seen and heard in recent days and weeks.
If she wins Labour will be back to its inner city core even more than with Corbyn, the LDs would become the main alternative to the Tories in suburbs and rural areas and wealthier urban areas
Quite possibly, but that still gives them a solid base of 200-odd MPs.
What it does mean however is they have no chance of winning a majority or even putting together a credible coalition alternative.
The Labour candidate who celebrates the deaths of political opponents has passed the Labour interview and will still remain a candidate for parliament.
I am coming round to the opinion it will not only be brexit that sees Boris win, it will be the combination of his brexit deal and widescale dislike, even fear, of Corbyn
This stuff isn't getting much of an airing though. I bet if you asked most of the public, they would have no idea about Ms Sultana, more a general well Labour have been accused of anti-Jew stuff in the past.
Whatever it is - anti-semitism, pro-IRA, pro-the UK's enemies, bat-shit crazy economic policies - or a combination of bits of all - Corbyn is toxic on the doorstep this time. Much more so than 2017.
Ironically if no PSOE PP deal agreed then Catalan nationalists hold the balance of power in the exit polls, even as the PP and Vox increase their vote on a hardline Spanish unity ticket
Casado has burnt his bridges with both Citizens and VOX since April so it may be for both him and Sanchez the Spanish version of a "grand coalition" has some appeal. It would make VOX the leading opposition party which is basically how it started with the likes of Lega and the Freedom Party and the AfD.
If the old parties combine to keep the new populist party out of power it just allows them to grow stronger in opposition.
You may be right, Vox, Lega and the AfD and FN would then be the main opposition in Spain, Italy, Germany and France
Labour out to 13 on most seats...quite extraordinary really
More polling incoming?
I dont get this- someone working at a polling company with inside knowledge of a poll which it used to bet would be breaking the law.....how many people would have access to such information and be willing to act on it? cant imagine its a thing
Could also be betting based on doorstep feedback over the weekend
Absolute disaster for C’s in Spain today. Overall a small left to right swing. No path to any majority. Another election in May when we’ll probably get a similar result on an even lower turnout.
A little surprised Timpson has been picked to fight in Eddisbury rather than Crewe and Nantwich - I didn't realise he only lost it in 2017 by less than 50 votes. Earned a safe seat (in theory) I guess?
I believe we covered this. The tories have had a candidate selected for C&N for a year now. I dont think we established if he stood in that selection competition or not.
Well pardon me for missing the occasional thing. I'm still surprised given how close the loss was that either he didn't stand for selection there when he is standing for parliament again now, or that he did stand and lost out.
Tsk. Please redouble your efforts to read all comments on PB.
Think you're seriously underrating Laura Pidcock. My sense is that we are at the start of something with her. She could be the special one.
Course I might be wrong - but I have been paying attention and it's my genuine opinion based on what my eyes and ears have respectively seen and heard in recent days and weeks.
If she wins Labour will be back to its inner city core even more than with Corbyn, the LDs would become the main alternative to the Tories in suburbs and rural areas and wealthier urban areas
Quite possibly, but that still gives them a solid base of 200-odd MPs.
What it does mean however is they have no chance of winning a majority or even putting together a credible coalition alternative.
If the LDs win in the wealthier parts of London and university towns and the Tories make inroads into working class Leave areas in the North, the Midlands and Wales that base falls to 150 or even fewer MPs
Absolute disaster for C’s in Spain today. Overall a small left to right swing. No path to any majority. Another election in May when we’ll probably get a similar result on an even lower turnout.
Can we bookmark this for December 13th? One word will need to be altered of course...
Labour out to 13 on most seats...quite extraordinary really
More polling incoming?
I dont get this- someone working at a polling company with inside knowledge of a poll which it used to bet would be breaking the law.....how many people would have access to such information and be willing to act on it? cant imagine its a thing
It may not be just polls but this weekends have all been favourable for the conservatives. Early canvassing may be becoming known, but it is believed Farage is not far off a deal with the conservatives. Knowing Farage I would treat that with a pinch of salt but he is under intense pressure, even from his own candidates, and of course if he rowed in behind Boris's deal, that would be a big moment
Think you're seriously underrating Laura Pidcock. My sense is that we are at the start of something with her. She could be the special one.
Course I might be wrong - but I have been paying attention and it's my genuine opinion based on what my eyes and ears have respectively seen and heard in recent days and weeks.
If she wins Labour will be back to its inner city core even more than with Corbyn, the LDs would become the main alternative to the Tories in suburbs and rural areas and wealthier urban areas
Quite possibly, but that still gives them a solid base of 200-odd MPs.
What it does mean however is they have no chance of winning a majority or even putting together a credible coalition alternative.
If the LDs win in the wealthier parts of London and the Tories make inroads into working class Leave areas in the North, the Midlands and Wales that base falls to 150 or even fewer MPs
On a halfway serious note I'm checking this with BetfairCS. They haven't got back to me yet probably because they're checking with traders. I think the fair manner for it to be settled would be in the same manner as a dead heat in horse racing though.
The Labour candidate who celebrates the deaths of political opponents has passed the Labour interview and will still remain a candidate for parliament.
I am coming round to the opinion it will not only be brexit that sees Boris win, it will be the combination of his brexit deal and widescale dislike, even fear, of Corbyn
This stuff isn't getting much of an airing though. I bet if you asked most of the public, they would have no idea about Ms Sultana, more a general well Labour have been accused of anti-Jew stuff in the past.
It's getting noted in Coventry South.
Not just Coventry South. All three Coventry seats are in play.
Ironically if no PSOE PP deal agreed then Catalan nationalists hold the balance of power in the exit polls, even as the PP and Vox increase their vote on a hardline Spanish unity ticket
Casado has burnt his bridges with both Citizens and VOX since April so it may be for both him and Sanchez the Spanish version of a "grand coalition" has some appeal. It would make VOX the leading opposition party which is basically how it started with the likes of Lega and the Freedom Party and the AfD.
If the old parties combine to keep the new populist party out of power it just allows them to grow stronger in opposition.
Vox has largely taken its votes from PP and C’s. It’s probably maxed out on C’s votes, so will have to aim at PP. I doubt that will happen. More likely is Vox to PP come May.
Think you're seriously underrating Laura Pidcock. My sense is that we are at the start of something with her. She could be the special one.
Course I might be wrong - but I have been paying attention and it's my genuine opinion based on what my eyes and ears have respectively seen and heard in recent days and weeks.
If she wins Labour will be back to its inner city core even more than with Corbyn, the LDs would become the main alternative to the Tories in suburbs and rural areas and wealthier urban areas
Quite possibly, but that still gives them a solid base of 200-odd MPs.
What it does mean however is they have no chance of winning a majority or even putting together a credible coalition alternative.
If the LDs win in the wealthier parts of London and the Tories make inroads into working class Leave areas in the North, the Midlands and Wales that base falls to 150 or even fewer MPs
Think you're seriously underrating Laura Pidcock. My sense is that we are at the start of something with her. She could be the special one.
Course I might be wrong - but I have been paying attention and it's my genuine opinion based on what my eyes and ears have respectively seen and heard in recent days and weeks.
I do think the route back to power will begin with the younger pro-Corbyn MPs who will realise they can either enjoy the purity of opposition for ever or begin process of re-energising and re-building Labour as a credible alternative party of Government.
To be more optimistic, I think Boris will be a much easier target than Thatcher in the 1980s. He has already made huge spending commitments and promises which will require increased borrowing and he will be forced to put up taxes which is always difficult for a Conservative electorally.
Think you're seriously underrating Laura Pidcock. My sense is that we are at the start of something with her. She could be the special one.
Course I might be wrong - but I have been paying attention and it's my genuine opinion based on what my eyes and ears have respectively seen and heard in recent days and weeks.
If she wins Labour will be back to its inner city core even more than with Corbyn, the LDs would become the main alternative to the Tories in suburbs and rural areas and wealthier urban areas
Quite possibly, but that still gives them a solid base of 200-odd MPs.
What it does mean however is they have no chance of winning a majority or even putting together a credible coalition alternative.
If the LDs win in the wealthier parts of London and university towns and the Tories make inroads into working class Leave areas in the North, the Midlands and Wales that base falls to 150 or even fewer MPs
150 means losses up to the likes of Redcar, Hull West and Hessle, Donny central
You can't afford for your teenage daughter to have a phone. Every other girl at school has one. It's how they banter and bitch, how they make plans, how they communicate basically.
But she doesn't have one. She's excluded from all of that. Because her parents can't afford it.
Think you're seriously underrating Laura Pidcock. My sense is that we are at the start of something with her. She could be the special one.
Course I might be wrong - but I have been paying attention and it's my genuine opinion based on what my eyes and ears have respectively seen and heard in recent days and weeks.
I do think the route back to power will begin with the younger pro-Corbyn MPs who will realise they can either enjoy the purity of opposition for ever or begin process of re-energising and re-building Labour as a credible alternative party of Government.
To be more optimistic, I think Boris will be a much easier target than Thatcher in the 1980s. He has already made huge spending commitments and promises which will require increased borrowing and he will be forced to put up taxes which is always difficult for a Conservative electorally.
The Labour candidate who celebrates the deaths of political opponents has passed the Labour interview and will still remain a candidate for parliament.
I am coming round to the opinion it will not only be brexit that sees Boris win, it will be the combination of his brexit deal and widescale dislike, even fear, of Corbyn
This stuff isn't getting much of an airing though. I bet if you asked most of the public, they would have no idea about Ms Sultana, more a general well Labour have been accused of anti-Jew stuff in the past.
Whatever it is - anti-semitism, pro-IRA, pro-the UK's enemies, bat-shit crazy economic policies - or a combination of bits of all - Corbyn is toxic on the doorstep this time. Much more so than 2017.
Is he that toxic? Genuine question this - in some polls Labour has been getting 30%. The election is a month away. Or is it more that he appears to have no clear Brexit policy and Boris does so he suffers as the old guy who’s been around for a while who’s unclear vs the new bouncy guy saying he’ll get it done?
I just wonder how much of the smelly stuff around him is really making a difference .
Ironically if no PSOE PP deal agreed then Catalan nationalists hold the balance of power in the exit polls, even as the PP and Vox increase their vote on a hardline Spanish unity ticket
Casado has burnt his bridges with both Citizens and VOX since April so it may be for both him and Sanchez the Spanish version of a "grand coalition" has some appeal. It would make VOX the leading opposition party which is basically how it started with the likes of Lega and the Freedom Party and the AfD.
If the old parties combine to keep the new populist party out of power it just allows them to grow stronger in opposition.
I actually think that this time the grand coalition’ will happen Felipe will tell them to park party politics for 24 months and do what is best for the country. The rise in the ultra right vote will be concern for all and make them think
The Labour candidate who celebrates the deaths of political opponents has passed the Labour interview and will still remain a candidate for parliament.
I am coming round to the opinion it will not only be brexit that sees Boris win, it will be the combination of his brexit deal and widescale dislike, even fear, of Corbyn
This stuff isn't getting much of an airing though. I bet if you asked most of the public, they would have no idea about Ms Sultana, more a general well Labour have been accused of anti-Jew stuff in the past.
Whatever it is - anti-semitism, pro-IRA, pro-the UK's enemies, bat-shit crazy economic policies - or a combination of bits of all - Corbyn is toxic on the doorstep this time. Much more so than 2017.
Is he that toxic? Genuine question this - in some polls Labour has been getting 30%. The election is a month away. Or is it more that he appears to have no clear Brexit policy and Boris does so he suffers as the old guy who’s been around for a while who’s unclear vs the new bouncy guy saying he’ll get it done?
I just wonder how much of the smelly stuff around him is really making a difference .
I've been surprised how many work colleagues have in discussing the election have spontaneously mentioned Corbyn being anti Semitic....a couple of them voted Labour 2017
Ironically if no PSOE PP deal agreed then Catalan nationalists hold the balance of power in the exit polls, even as the PP and Vox increase their vote on a hardline Spanish unity ticket
Casado has burnt his bridges with both Citizens and VOX since April so it may be for both him and Sanchez the Spanish version of a "grand coalition" has some appeal. It would make VOX the leading opposition party which is basically how it started with the likes of Lega and the Freedom Party and the AfD.
If the old parties combine to keep the new populist party out of power it just allows them to grow stronger in opposition.
I actually think that this time the grand coalition’ will happen Felipe will tell them to park party politics for 24 months and do what is best for the country. The rise in the ultra right vote will be concern for all and make them think
At some point they are going to have to have a government that lasts even without a clear single winner, it gets a bit ridiculous otherwise
You may be right, Vox, Lega and the AfD and FN would then be the main opposition in Spain, Italy, Germany and France
I think the interesting counter-development is the emergence in some places of stronger Green parties. Kurz is looking at an OVP-Green coalition in Austria and I suspect a CDU-Green Government isn't wholly unlikely in Germany.
It will be interesting to see whether Green parties can get any traction elsewhere in the next few years.
It's an odd one. Was a Con-LD marginal for decades with Labour nowhere. The LD MP John Pugh stood down and Labour got 15,000 votes last time. Apparently Momentum in LIverpool have been sending volunteers up to Southport as they think Labour can win it.
The Labour candidate who celebrates the deaths of political opponents has passed the Labour interview and will still remain a candidate for parliament.
I am coming round to the opinion it will not only be brexit that sees Boris win, it will be the combination of his brexit deal and widescale dislike, even fear, of Corbyn
This stuff isn't getting much of an airing though. I bet if you asked most of the public, they would have no idea about Ms Sultana, more a general well Labour have been accused of anti-Jew stuff in the past.
Whatever it is - anti-semitism, pro-IRA, pro-the UK's enemies, bat-shit crazy economic policies - or a combination of bits of all - Corbyn is toxic on the doorstep this time. Much more so than 2017.
Is he that toxic? Genuine question this - in some polls Labour has been getting 30%. The election is a month away. Or is it more that he appears to have no clear Brexit policy and Boris does so he suffers as the old guy who’s been around for a while who’s unclear vs the new bouncy guy saying he’ll get it done?
I just wonder how much of the smelly stuff around him is really making a difference .
The Tory activists on here are only ever going to run Corbyn down. It probably doesn't matter if Corbyn is good or bad, they will only ever report the worst. On Corbyn's side, all Tories are evil, exploitative, baby-eating scum.
You can't afford for your teenage daughter to have a phone. Every other girl at school has one. It's how they banter and bitch, how they make plans, how they communicate basically.
But she doesn't have one. She's excluded from all of that. Because her parents can't afford it.
The Labour candidate who celebrates the deaths of political opponents has passed the Labour interview and will still remain a candidate for parliament.
I am coming round to the opinion it will not only be brexit that sees Boris win, it will be the combination of his brexit deal and widescale dislike, even fear, of Corbyn
This stuff isn't getting much of an airing though. I bet if you asked most of the public, they would have no idea about Ms Sultana, more a general well Labour have been accused of anti-Jew stuff in the past.
Whatever it is - anti-semitism, pro-IRA, pro-the UK's enemies, bat-shit crazy economic policies - or a combination of bits of all - Corbyn is toxic on the doorstep this time. Much more so than 2017.
Is he that toxic? Genuine question this - in some polls Labour has been getting 30%. The election is a month away. Or is it more that he appears to have no clear Brexit policy and Boris does so he suffers as the old guy who’s been around for a while who’s unclear vs the new bouncy guy saying he’ll get it done?
I just wonder how much of the smelly stuff around him is really making a difference .
Whilst the passage of time would add to it a bit, I would be surprised if things that did not work last time would work this time. The next week or so will likely persuade me on that, if Labour are moving in the same direction.
Ironically if no PSOE PP deal agreed then Catalan nationalists hold the balance of power in the exit polls, even as the PP and Vox increase their vote on a hardline Spanish unity ticket
Casado has burnt his bridges with both Citizens and VOX since April so it may be for both him and Sanchez the Spanish version of a "grand coalition" has some appeal. It would make VOX the leading opposition party which is basically how it started with the likes of Lega and the Freedom Party and the AfD.
If the old parties combine to keep the new populist party out of power it just allows them to grow stronger in opposition.
I actually think that this time the grand coalition’ will happen Felipe will tell them to park party politics for 24 months and do what is best for the country. The rise in the ultra right vote will be concern for all and make them think
At some point they are going to have to have a government that lasts even without a clear single winner, it gets a bit ridiculous otherwise
If Spain don’t really have a government what does that do to post WA Brexit negotiations?
Markets have moved a LOT pro Con over the last week. I can already close most of my opening salvo of spread positions for a decent profit. Tempting to do so since then I could root for the result I truly want without the sordid distraction of personal betting impact.
Well whatever the reason Tories in to 1.91 on majority...
Personally hoping it gets very short then I will lay it a substantial amount as insurance against a Labour government
That's an exceptionally poor way to insure against a Labour Government in that there are a lot of possible results between a Tory majority and a Labour Government.
Ironically if no PSOE PP deal agreed then Catalan nationalists hold the balance of power in the exit polls, even as the PP and Vox increase their vote on a hardline Spanish unity ticket
Casado has burnt his bridges with both Citizens and VOX since April so it may be for both him and Sanchez the Spanish version of a "grand coalition" has some appeal. It would make VOX the leading opposition party which is basically how it started with the likes of Lega and the Freedom Party and the AfD.
If the old parties combine to keep the new populist party out of power it just allows them to grow stronger in opposition.
I actually think that this time the grand coalition’ will happen Felipe will tell them to park party politics for 24 months and do what is best for the country. The rise in the ultra right vote will be concern for all and make them think
At some point they are going to have to have a government that lasts even without a clear single winner, it gets a bit ridiculous otherwise
If Spain don’t really have a government what does that do to post WA Brexit negotiations?
If they’re totally without a government I would have thought it would make them easier.
If they’re beset by political instability and all of them are therefore trying to play pseudo-patriotic cards over Gibraltar, however...
Possible that it just hasn't been updated since 8 November, but as far as I can tell Bloomberg, Gabbard, and Yang are all yet to file for the Arkansas Democratic Primary. Deadline is 12 November.
I assume Yang's is in the post, but I slightly wonder if Gabbard or Bloomberg won't bother. And how many states does she have to not file for before the market gives up on Clinton?
Well whatever the reason Tories in to 1.91 on majority...
Personally hoping it gets very short then I will lay it a substantial amount as insurance against a Labour government
That's an exceptionally poor way to insure against a Labour Government in that there are a lot of possible results between a Tory majority and a Labour Government.
Yes fair enough... but its a very liquid market though...betting on Lab minority etc might not be so liquid
Also the possibility of a double win if the Tories are just short of a majority
The Labour candidate who celebrates the deaths of political opponents has passed the Labour interview and will still remain a candidate for parliament.
I am coming round to the opinion it will not only be brexit that sees Boris win, it will be the combination of his brexit deal and widescale dislike, even fear, of Corbyn
This stuff isn't getting much of an airing though. I bet if you asked most of the public, they would have no idea about Ms Sultana, more a general well Labour have been accused of anti-Jew stuff in the past.
Whatever it is - anti-semitism, pro-IRA, pro-the UK's enemies, bat-shit crazy economic policies - or a combination of bits of all - Corbyn is toxic on the doorstep this time. Much more so than 2017.
Is he that toxic? Genuine question this - in some polls Labour has been getting 30%. The election is a month away. Or is it more that he appears to have no clear Brexit policy and Boris does so he suffers as the old guy who’s been around for a while who’s unclear vs the new bouncy guy saying he’ll get it done?
I just wonder how much of the smelly stuff around him is really making a difference .
The Tory activists on here are only ever going to run Corbyn down. It probably doesn't matter if Corbyn is good or bad, they will only ever report the worst. On Corbyn's side, all Tories are evil, exploitative, baby-eating scum.
There are no balanced opinions on PB
I think expecting those who have been canvassing to be impartial is a bit of a stretch. The opinions that I most trust (in terms of their predictions at least) are those prepared to bet significant sums on the outcome. They are not alway right, but they are less lightly to be swayed by personal political priorities.
Ironically if no PSOE PP deal agreed then Catalan nationalists hold the balance of power in the exit polls, even as the PP and Vox increase their vote on a hardline Spanish unity ticket
Casado has burnt his bridges with both Citizens and VOX since April so it may be for both him and Sanchez the Spanish version of a "grand coalition" has some appeal. It would make VOX the leading opposition party which is basically how it started with the likes of Lega and the Freedom Party and the AfD.
If the old parties combine to keep the new populist party out of power it just allows them to grow stronger in opposition.
I actually think that this time the grand coalition’ will happen Felipe will tell them to park party politics for 24 months and do what is best for the country. The rise in the ultra right vote will be concern for all and make them think
At some point they are going to have to have a government that lasts even without a clear single winner, it gets a bit ridiculous otherwise
If Spain don’t really have a government what does that do to post WA Brexit negotiations?
It will have little effect. On leaving to transistion at the end of January 2020 ( subject to Boris winning) all negotiations re-commence with Barnier, not the member states
Possible that it just hasn't been updated since 8 November, but as far as I can tell Bloomberg, Gabbard, and Yang are all yet to file for the Arkansas Democratic Primary. Deadline is 12 November.
I assume Yang's is in the post, but I slightly wonder if Gabbard or Bloomberg won't bother. And how many states does she have to not file for before the market gives up on Clinton?
Ironically if no PSOE PP deal agreed then Catalan nationalists hold the balance of power in the exit polls, even as the PP and Vox increase their vote on a hardline Spanish unity ticket
Casado has burnt his bridges with both Citizens and VOX since April so it may be for both him and Sanchez the Spanish version of a "grand coalition" has some appeal. It would make VOX the leading opposition party which is basically how it started with the likes of Lega and the Freedom Party and the AfD.
If the old parties combine to keep the new populist party out of power it just allows them to grow stronger in opposition.
I actually think that this time the grand coalition’ will happen Felipe will tell them to park party politics for 24 months and do what is best for the country. The rise in the ultra right vote will be concern for all and make them think
At some point they are going to have to have a government that lasts even without a clear single winner, it gets a bit ridiculous otherwise
If Spain don’t really have a government what does that do to post WA Brexit negotiations?
They have functioning executive as long as they do nothing controversial, my personal concern is not the Spanish government but the competence of the U.K. government to agree the necessary reciprocal agreements.
The Labour candidate who celebrates the deaths of political opponents has passed the Labour interview and will still remain a candidate for parliament.
I am coming round to the opinion it will not only be brexit that sees Boris win, it will be the combination of his brexit deal and widescale dislike, even fear, of Corbyn
This stuff isn't getting much of an airing though. I bet if you asked most of the public, they would have no idea about Ms Sultana, more a general well Labour have been accused of anti-Jew stuff in the past.
Whatever it is - anti-semitism, pro-IRA, pro-the UK's enemies, bat-shit crazy economic policies - or a combination of bits of all - Corbyn is toxic on the doorstep this time. Much more so than 2017.
Is he that toxic? Genuine question this - in some polls Labour has been getting 30%. The election is a month away. Or is it more that he appears to have no clear Brexit policy and Boris does so he suffers as the old guy who’s been around for a while who’s unclear vs the new bouncy guy saying he’ll get it done?
I just wonder how much of the smelly stuff around him is really making a difference .
The Tory activists on here are only ever going to run Corbyn down. It probably doesn't matter if Corbyn is good or bad, they will only ever report the worst. On Corbyn's side, all Tories are evil, exploitative, baby-eating scum.
There are no balanced opinions on PB
I'll give you a straighforward take on what I am hearing on the doorsteps. This is a betting site - no point in spouting partisan bollocks if people lose money on it.
I'll remind you of what I said in 2015 - that the LibDems in the SW were getting a shellacking. In 2017 I said that the Tories were doing great in Torbay - they stuck 11k on their majority.
What themes I'm hearing so far in 2019 in Totnes:
- Corbyn is toxic - raised spontaneously by multiple voters
- Get Brexit Done chimes with the times
- Swinson is not cutting through with Revoke, which is thought unfair to the 17.4m who voted for Brexit
- I have only had 2 voters reference the Brexit Party - and they were quickly turned back to the blues
- Dr Sarah Wollaston is a "waste of space" - she should have submitted to a by-election when she defected
Possible that it just hasn't been updated since 8 November, but as far as I can tell Bloomberg, Gabbard, and Yang are all yet to file for the Arkansas Democratic Primary. Deadline is 12 November.
I assume Yang's is in the post, but I slightly wonder if Gabbard or Bloomberg won't bother. And how many states does she have to not file for before the market gives up on Clinton?
Possible that it just hasn't been updated since 8 November, but as far as I can tell Bloomberg, Gabbard, and Yang are all yet to file for the Arkansas Democratic Primary. Deadline is 12 November.
I assume Yang's is in the post, but I slightly wonder if Gabbard or Bloomberg won't bother. And how many states does she have to not file for before the market gives up on Clinton?
I thought he files in Alabama? I may have missed reports of him filing in Arkansas, I've only seen that he plans to.
It would make no sense not to file, frankly. Negligible cost for him and keeps the option open for him to decide. Not filing would be a big blow to people taking a possible bid seriously.
I assume Yang's is in the post, but I slightly wonder if Gabbard or Bloomberg won't bother. And how many states does she have to not file for before the market gives up on Clinton?
All of them. She would have to announce she was going to hermetically seal herself away from all human contact for the next 4 years.
So if Labour lose having lost Leavers to the Brexit Party and the Tories and Remainers to the LDs, Greens and SNP they now have a cunning plan to accelerate the process
You always give an answer and great rebuttal HY. The latest speculation about the suppressed security report, this time from the Pravda of the BBC, claim Tories suppressed it because Russians named in it are big donors to the Tory party, hence he who pays the piper plays the tune. 😮
What’s the right response? Surely rebutting attack where Labour get their money off unions just adds fuel to the fire as doesn’t actually rebutt?
The right response is to ignore it unless the donations were illegal
This has potential to shape this election in the latter stages, like what happened for Trump. A game changer.
If you think back to how it began to turn for Oh Jeremy Corbyn, when he called it wrong on Putin’s KGB poisoning of Salisbury with nerve agent of war, how his support went off a cliff, how his critics in opposition and his own party made hay whilst the Jez Sun went down? What if the Tories did nothing about it because of how much Russian money has bought their party and is playing the tune? Facts are Trump has struck off oligarchs on behalf of his British ally the British government haven’t even moved against. Add to it whiff of a cover up. Whispers of links between close aids of the prime minister and Russia. And most of all how it was used as a stick to beat Corbyn, but not enough action taken on the actual problem, this is just the type of thing to definitely reshape last weeks of this campaign. Isn’t it?
Trump won
Glad you agree with me for once. Yes the game changer happened in Trumps favour and he won. For just a week or so the publics perception is altered, just when it matters. 😦. If there was Such fuckmule as the Russian money and interference in the Conservative Party scandal Of autumn 2019 the whole course of this election could transform in just a week or so, all the opponents of the conservatives just paper candidates on Dec 12 many picking up votes they shouldn’t really deserve without the scandal.
To say confidently there will be no such scandal is to say confidently the British establishment will go along with brexit then, isn’t it?
I assume Yang's is in the post, but I slightly wonder if Gabbard or Bloomberg won't bother. And how many states does she have to not file for before the market gives up on Clinton?
All of them. She would have to announce she was going to hermetically seal herself away from all human contact for the next 4 years.
What about a Sherman statement: "I hereby state, and mean all that I say, that I never have been and never will be a candidate for President; that if nominated by either party, I should peremptorily decline; and even if unanimously elected I should decline to serve."
Obviously she would have to miss out the never have been part.
Pidcock is very young remember. She has much scope to mature and blossom.
Then let her mature, blossom, develop a vague understanding of the world around her, some humility and some common sense, and we’ll talk again.
But right now, she would be the wrong person because Labour needs a figure willing to tell hard truths to the base so the party can reach out beyond it.
I see the Daily Telegraph is talking up the UK economy averting recession in figures due out tomorrow.
BJ has the Brexit supporting media working overtime in their efforts to disseminate propaganda to support the PM. But what if they are wrong and the economy has stalled or even worse in recession? Added to which, can the credibility of the Brexit supporting media be sustained when they are advocating a policy "Brexit" which will mean a smaller economy than would have been the case had we stayed in the EU...
I see the Daily Telegraph is talking up the UK economy averting recession in figures due out tomorrow.
BJ has the Brexit supporting media working overtime in their efforts to disseminate propaganda to support the PM. But what if they are wrong and the economy has stalled or even worse in recession? Added to which, can the credibility of the Brexit supporting media be sustained when they are advocating a policy "Brexit" which will mean a smaller economy than would have been the case had we stayed in the EU...
Of the three party leaders at the Cenotaph today, Johnson was a ******* disgrace. Unpolished shoes, a coat he didn't (couldn't?) fasten, and laying his wreath upside down. Corbyn did his usual failure to bow trick. Only Swinson actually performed like a PM.
Who fucking cares?
Anyone with any respect for people who've died for their country. People unlike Noo, in other words.
Even Berlusconi made sure he was properly dressed. Even Trump fastens his coat. No Tory PM EVER has looked such a lout at the Cenotaph ceremony.
Johnson actually managed to let Corbyn look more respectful. And to make the LibDem look more like a real Prime Minister.
Churchill must be turning in his grave
You're damn right. I don't fucking care about shoes of the depth of a bow. Only the smallest-minded people do. People like you.
The Labour candidate who celebrates the deaths of political opponents has passed the Labour interview and will still remain a candidate for parliament.
I am coming round to the opinion it will not only be brexit that sees Boris win, it will be the combination of his brexit deal and widescale dislike, even fear, of Corbyn
This stuff isn't getting much of an airing though. I bet if you asked most of the public, they would have no idea about Ms Sultana, more a general well Labour have been accused of anti-Jew stuff in the past.
Whatever it is - anti-semitism, pro-IRA, pro-the UK's enemies, bat-shit crazy economic policies - or a combination of bits of all - Corbyn is toxic on the doorstep this time. Much more so than 2017.
Is he that toxic? Genuine question this - in some polls Labour has been getting 30%. The election is a month away. Or is it more that he appears to have no clear Brexit policy and Boris does so he suffers as the old guy who’s been around for a while who’s unclear vs the new bouncy guy saying he’ll get it done?
I just wonder how much of the smelly stuff around him is really making a difference .
The Tory activists on here are only ever going to run Corbyn down. It probably doesn't matter if Corbyn is good or bad, they will only ever report the worst. On Corbyn's side, all Tories are evil, exploitative, baby-eating scum.
There are no balanced opinions on PB
I'll give you a straighforward take on what I am hearing on the doorsteps. This is a betting site - no point in spouting partisan bollocks if people lose money on it.
I'll remind you of what I said in 2015 - that the LibDems in the SW were getting a shellacking. In 2017 I said that the Tories were doing great in Torbay - they stuck 11k on their majority.
What themes I'm hearing so far in 2019 in Totnes:
- Corbyn is toxic - raised spontaneously by multiple voters
- Get Brexit Done chimes with the times
- Swinson is not cutting through with Revoke, which is thought unfair to the 17.4m who voted for Brexit
- I have only had 2 voters reference the Brexit Party - and they were quickly turned back to the blues
- Dr Sarah Wollaston is a "waste of space" - she should have submitted to a by-election when she defected
Ironically if no PSOE PP deal agreed then Catalan nationalists hold the balance of power in the exit polls, even as the PP and Vox increase their vote on a hardline Spanish unity ticket
Casado has burnt his bridges with both Citizens and VOX since April so it may be for both him and Sanchez the Spanish version of a "grand coalition" has some appeal. It would make VOX the leading opposition party which is basically how it started with the likes of Lega and the Freedom Party and the AfD.
If the old parties combine to keep the new populist party out of power it just allows them to grow stronger in opposition.
I actually think that this time the grand coalition’ will happen Felipe will tell them to park party politics for 24 months and do what is best for the country. The rise in the ultra right vote will be concern for all and make them think
At some point they are going to have to have a government that lasts even without a clear single winner, it gets a bit ridiculous otherwise
If Spain don’t really have a government what does that do to post WA Brexit negotiations?
It will have little effect. On leaving to transistion at the end of January 2020 ( subject to Boris winning) all negotiations re-commence with Barnier, not the member states
The Negotiations are - but the ratification of the final deal is not - in fact in some countries (Belgium is 1 from memory) individual regions will have what amounts to a complete veto.
And in some cases that veto could come with a large car factory remaining open at say the expense of Vauxhall.
But it's not surprising that the biggest supporters of a rapid deal don't understand the steps required for a deal to be finalised.
Also failing to mention that they immediately joined the European Community.
Also wrong, as they did not leave the Warsaw Pact until the DDR was dissolved on 3rd October 1990. He’s confusing it with the opening of the border and the demolition of the Berlin Wall, which was 30 years ago last Friday.
Edit - it is also worth pointing out that the Warsaw Pact was the equivalent of NATO, not the EU. He means COMECON, the Soviet trading hegemony, but even so the point about the dates still stands.
Comments
1) Before April he tacked to the Right to counter the rise of VOX and ended up losing moderate centre and centre-right votes to Citizens.
2) Since April he has gone back to the centre and while he has gained support on the moderate side from Citizens he has lost votes on the right to VOX.
3) As he has tried both, he is neither trusted by Citizens nor VOX thus making his chances of getting the PP back into Govenrment very slim.
Sanchez has a similar problem on the centre-left and left. United Podemos would not support him after April and now the left will make a small net loss leaving Sanchez still leader of the largest party but nowhere near a majority.
VOX are seen by 15% as the answer - I'm not sure anyone has quite figured out the question.
As I said on Wednesday, the only viable coalition is PSOE-PP.
You world has a naive simplicity which is almost charming.
Think you're seriously underrating Laura Pidcock. My sense is that we are at the start of something with her. She could be the special one.
Course I might be wrong - but I have been paying attention and it's my genuine opinion based on what my eyes and ears have respectively seen and heard in recent days and weeks.
The election is only 4 weeks this coming thursday away
Boris will get a majority and his Europhobic party will pass his deal.
Of course that requires educating the voters about how godawful Mr O'Mara is.
What she certainly doesn’t have the ability to do is reach out to swing voters. She’s so aggressively tribal that she regards everyone who is not 100% for her as against her. Nothing could be a bigger turnoff to us than her self-righteous hectoring.
She also doesn’t seem to have particularly good political instincts. Disappearing to Italy and missing a vote on welfare was a serious mis-step.
The first hurdle she may face in any case is holding her seat.
There is a real issue with lower middle class wage stagnation etc and superficially his socialism dedux sounds good especially as he had 40 years rehearsing the same lines to get it down to a decent sounding pitch.
If the old parties combine to keep the new populist party out of power it just allows them to grow stronger in opposition.
Ah there you are!
Back to PT re 15 year olds and phones.
My question to you -
You can't afford for your teenage daughter to have a phone. Every other girl at school has one. It's how they banter and bitch, how they make plans, how they communicate basically.
But she doesn't have one. She's excluded from all of that. Because her parents can't afford it.
How does she feel?
How do YOU feel?
What it does mean however is they have no chance of winning a majority or even putting together a credible coalition alternative.
Personally hoping it gets very short then I will lay it a substantial amount as insurance against a Labour government
To be more optimistic, I think Boris will be a much easier target than Thatcher in the 1980s. He has already made huge spending commitments and promises which will require increased borrowing and he will be forced to put up taxes which is always difficult for a Conservative electorally.
I just wonder how much of the smelly stuff around him is really making a difference .
/end meaningless anecdote
Co-leaders = Dead heat rules
https://twitter.com/BetfairCS/status/1193613089066901504
It will be interesting to see whether Green parties can get any traction elsewhere in the next few years.
There are no balanced opinions on PB
If they’re beset by political instability and all of them are therefore trying to play pseudo-patriotic cards over Gibraltar, however...
I assume Yang's is in the post, but I slightly wonder if Gabbard or Bloomberg won't bother. And how many states does she have to not file for before the market gives up on Clinton?
Source: Search for office 'U.S. President' on this website: https://www.ark.org/arelections/index.php?ac:show:cand_search=1&elecid=384
Also the possibility of a double win if the Tories are just short of a majority
The opinions that I most trust (in terms of their predictions at least) are those prepared to bet significant sums on the outcome. They are not alway right, but they are less lightly to be swayed by personal political priorities.
1997: 31% vote, 25% seats.
2005: 32% vote, 30.5% seats. Possibly even closer if you only count GB figures.
Of course, Labour were getting far more seats than votes.
I'll remind you of what I said in 2015 - that the LibDems in the SW were getting a shellacking. In 2017 I said that the Tories were doing great in Torbay - they stuck 11k on their majority.
What themes I'm hearing so far in 2019 in Totnes:
- Corbyn is toxic - raised spontaneously by multiple voters
- Get Brexit Done chimes with the times
- Swinson is not cutting through with Revoke, which is thought unfair to the 17.4m who voted for Brexit
- I have only had 2 voters reference the Brexit Party - and they were quickly turned back to the blues
- Dr Sarah Wollaston is a "waste of space" - she should have submitted to a by-election when she defected
- oh, and "all you Tories are fucking arseholes"
https://twitter.com/MarcherLord1/status/1193259681256558592?s=20
It would make no sense not to file, frankly. Negligible cost for him and keeps the option open for him to decide. Not filing would be a big blow to people taking a possible bid seriously.
Answer the question please.
I need evidence of a thought process.
And she'd still be @50 on Betfair.
(In teacher mode I nearly wrote RTQ there, but that would not have been fair. I save RTFQ for particularly bad examples).
Na, who am I kidding.
To say confidently there will be no such scandal is to say confidently the British establishment will go along with brexit then, isn’t it?
Obviously she would have to miss out the never have been part.
But right now, she would be the wrong person because Labour needs a figure willing to tell hard truths to the base so the party can reach out beyond it. A bigger problem might be that no Tory would wish to be friends with her - still less vote for her.
They had a poll out showing a 5% tory lead in the towns they polled, does anyone have a link?
BJ has the Brexit supporting media working overtime in their efforts to disseminate propaganda to support the PM. But what if they are wrong and the economy has stalled or even worse in recession? Added to which, can the credibility of the Brexit supporting media be sustained when they are advocating a policy "Brexit" which will mean a smaller economy than would have been the case had we stayed in the EU...
You do not normally report the last one
A few kudos for doing it this time
And in some cases that veto could come with a large car factory remaining open at say the expense of Vauxhall.
But it's not surprising that the biggest supporters of a rapid deal don't understand the steps required for a deal to be finalised.
Edit - it is also worth pointing out that the Warsaw Pact was the equivalent of NATO, not the EU. He means COMECON, the Soviet trading hegemony, but even so the point about the dates still stands.