The YouGov Tory lead becomes 10% - much more like Survation - if you adjust the Green vote share to match by transferring those votes to Labour.
I've no doubt at all that the Greens will poll well under 5%.
If that Green vote goes LD rather than Corbyn Labour though (and the Greens and LDs are in the Remain Alliance unlike Corbyn Labour) then based on Yougov the LDs would beat Labour in voteshare
Soldiers at Marble Arch station selling poppies and shouting ‘have you got your poppy yet sir?’ to passers by.
The slow but inexorable drift towards militarism over my lifetime continues.
I dislike this sort of thing. Let people make their own decisions without hectoring them.
Quite right and well said. I used to wear a poppy every year. Now, I don’t. The insistence that one has to wear one has put me off. It can only be a few days before a TV presenter gets hauled over the coals for failing their duty.
TV presenters already are if they dont.
It doesnt make this annual parade of woe is me society is going to help because if the poppies stuff any less an overreaction and an amusing one at that.
I wear one for 11 days every year from 1st to 11th November, and have done so for decades.
Soldiers at Marble Arch station selling poppies and shouting ‘have you got your poppy yet sir?’ to passers by.
The slow but inexorable drift towards militarism over my lifetime continues.
I dislike this sort of thing. Let people make their own decisions without hectoring them.
Quite right and well said. I used to wear a poppy every year. Now, I don’t. The insistence that one has to wear one has put me off. It can only be a few days before a TV presenter gets hauled over the coals for failing their duty.
TV presenters already are if they dont.
It doesnt make this annual parade of woe is me society is going to hell because if the poppies stuff any less an overreaction and an amusing one at that. Tell you what, I wont wear one and I'll let you know how oppressed I get.
Soldiers at Marble Arch station selling poppies and shouting ‘have you got your poppy yet sir?’ to passers by.
The slow but inexorable drift towards militarism over my lifetime continues.
I dislike this sort of thing. Let people make their own decisions without hectoring them.
Quite right and well said. I used to wear a poppy every year. Now, I don’t. The insistence that one has to wear one has put me off. It can only be a few days before a TV presenter gets hauled over the coals for failing their duty.
TV presenters already are if they dont.
It doesnt make this annual parade of woe is me society is going to hell because if the poppies stuff any less an overreaction and an amusing one at that. Tell you what, I wont wear one and I'll let you know how oppressed I get.
Er, that’s my point. They get traduced for not wearing one. I’m saying that someone will forget soon and the Poppy Outrage Bus will hit overdrive.
There does appear to be a stunning level of optimism that people will look straight past the BJ bullshit - do or die, dead in a ditch, prepare for no deal and here's NHS cash Mr advertising agency - and go you, he's a man who will die in a ditch to get Brexit done, do or die.
I know that we know a lot of voters are stupid, they've swallowed all manner of guano over Brexit. But the Tory campaign is basically repeat all the stuff that Johnson has failed to do and say you can trust him to deliver them.
Really?
44% of voters blame Parliament for the fact we are still in the EU, only 32% blame Boris according to the new Survation poll
Was the question framed as the more life’s “blame” or the more neutral “is responsible for” (or something along those line)? I think the latter if this is a properly conducted poll and the loading is Mail spin.
Soldiers at Marble Arch station selling poppies and shouting ‘have you got your poppy yet sir?’ to passers by.
The slow but inexorable drift towards militarism over my lifetime continues.
I dislike this sort of thing. Let people make their own decisions without hectoring them.
Quite right and well said. I used to wear a poppy every year. Now, I don’t. The insistence that one has to wear one has put me off. It can only be a few days before a TV presenter gets hauled over the coals for failing their duty.
TV presenters already are if they dont.
It doesnt make this annual parade of woe is me society is going to help because if the poppies stuff any less an overreaction and an amusing one at that.
I wear one for 11 days every year from 1st to 11th November, and have done so for decades.
The YouGov Tory lead becomes 10% - much more like Survation - if you adjust the Green vote share to match by transferring those votes to Labour.
I've no doubt at all that the Greens will poll well under 5%.
? This shows a 15% tory lead
Yes it does. I'm exploring the differences between the Yougov and Survation leads in an attempt to better understand them. One such difference is the Green share of 1% in the latter and 6% in the former.
Dura_Ace said: "I am trying to recall when this fucking pointless shit became so pervasive. I think it was after Iraq II.
I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one."
Thank you Dura Ace. About time someone talked some sense over this. I refuse to wear one too. What on earth must visitors to the UK think of our obsession with this militaristic shit.
Pretty much all counties of a certain size (with the odd exception for often historical reasons) have their own brand of “militaristic shit”. Doesn’t make it necessarily right but I don’t think the UK is in any way unusual in the pack and in fact is much less fetishising of the military than many, many other countries on this globe.
Soldiers at Marble Arch station selling poppies and shouting ‘have you got your poppy yet sir?’ to passers by.
The slow but inexorable drift towards militarism over my lifetime continues.
I am trying to recall when this fucking pointless shit became so pervasive. I think it was after Iraq II.
I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one.
Don't forget that there was some imperceptible time as you say around Iraq II/Afghan that soldiers stopped being the nation's dirty little secret and became heroes. If I had to guess/be cynical I would say it was to prepare the country for the expected casualty count.
Granby estimates were after all for 150 killed/VSI per day and MOD were new at this war fighting game.
So Johnson needs 321 Tories + Flint or 322 if Con Gain Don Valley.
The numbers remain the same if Finucane gains Belfast North due to speaker tie rule.
Adherence to the Tory and Labour whip on this looks to me to be 100% now with the sole exception of Flint.
Unless Sinn Fein lose seats to the Alliance, which is not inconceivable.
I had wondered at one point if Sinn Fein might even not put up any candidates to try and frustrate a Tory-DUP Brexit, but I guess they are actually quite happy with the current deal as it puts more of a border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
The YouGov Tory lead becomes 10% - much more like Survation - if you adjust the Green vote share to match by transferring those votes to Labour.
I've no doubt at all that the Greens will poll well under 5%.
The more salient point is what happens to the 13% TBP vote if they confirm they are withdrawing from most constituencies including all in Scotland
Someone asked the question yesterday and I did check a random YouGov. In that particular poll Brexit Party voters were 2:1 2017 Conservative: Labour voters.
So not unreasonable to think about a net benefit of 4% to the Tories. Don't know why that's necessarily more salient though.
It's entirely consistent with Farage that he is teasing the media to win more attention for an unexciting announcement that they are standing candidates in every seat. Although he might be looking for the least humiliating way to exit the contest.
Dura_Ace said: "I am trying to recall when this fucking pointless shit became so pervasive. I think it was after Iraq II.
I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one."
Thank you Dura Ace. About time someone talked some sense over this. I refuse to wear one too. What on earth must visitors to the UK think of our obsession with this militaristic shit.
Pretty much all counties of a certain size (with the odd exception for often historical reasons) have their own brand of “militaristic shit”. Doesn’t make it necessarily right but I don’t think the UK is in any way unusual in the pack and in fact is much less fetishising of the military than many, many other countries on this globe.
I think the news last week about the amount of money sloshing around ex service charities will have some impact on sales.
Dura_Ace said: "I am trying to recall when this fucking pointless shit became so pervasive. I think it was after Iraq II.
I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one."
Thank you Dura Ace. About time someone talked some sense over this. I refuse to wear one too. What on earth must visitors to the UK think of our obsession with this militaristic shit.
Well, if they are visitors from the US, they must wonder why we only support our veterans for 11 days of the year......
The YouGov Tory lead becomes 10% - much more like Survation - if you adjust the Green vote share to match by transferring those votes to Labour.
I've no doubt at all that the Greens will poll well under 5%.
If that Green vote goes LD rather than Corbyn Labour though (and the Greens and LDs are in the Remain Alliance unlike Corbyn Labour) then based on Yougov the LDs would beat Labour in voteshare
Yes. I don't believe that the current level of support for the Greens is 6%, and if it were I wouldn't expect it to transfer as a block to Labour, but it's one difference between the two polls that has a bearing on the difference other people are paying more attention to.
It looks to me as if Corbyn has calculated that this is his last election and he is going to lose it anyway, so he may as well go all in for what he believes in regardless of electoral prudence.
Dura_Ace said: "I am trying to recall when this fucking pointless shit became so pervasive. I think it was after Iraq II.
I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one."
Thank you Dura Ace. About time someone talked some sense over this. I refuse to wear one too. What on earth must visitors to the UK think of our obsession with this militaristic shit.
Well, if they are visitors from the US, they must wonder why we only support our veterans for 11 days of the year......
It irritated me mildly when, at the end of US domestic flights, everyone was told to stay in their seats while the military got off (usually to applause).
Soldiers at Marble Arch station selling poppies and shouting ‘have you got your poppy yet sir?’ to passers by.
The slow but inexorable drift towards militarism over my lifetime continues.
I am trying to recall when this fucking pointless shit became so pervasive. I think it was after Iraq II.
I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one.
Don't forget that there was some imperceptible time as you say around Iraq II/Afghan that soldiers stopped being the nation's dirty little secret and became heroes. If I had to guess/be cynical I would say it was to prepare the country for the expected casualty count.
Granby estimates were after all for 150 killed/VSI per day and MOD were new at this war fighting game.
More likely the drift towards Americanism. If America calls anyone in uniform a hero, we should too. Ditto high school proms, the Supreme Court and that guy off The Apprentice HIGNFY running the show.
Soldiers at Marble Arch station selling poppies and shouting ‘have you got your poppy yet sir?’ to passers by.
The slow but inexorable drift towards militarism over my lifetime continues.
I dislike this sort of thing. Let people make their own decisions without hectoring them.
I love this time of year when people pretend that the tyranny of the poppy sellers is oppressing them or that we are headed to a militaristic society. Its genuinely very funny.
I didn't say any of that, just that people should be allowed to make their own decisions without being badgered.
The YouGov Tory lead becomes 10% - much more like Survation - if you adjust the Green vote share to match by transferring those votes to Labour.
I've no doubt at all that the Greens will poll well under 5%.
The more salient point is what happens to the 13% TBP vote if they confirm they are withdrawing from most constituencies including all in Scotland
Someone asked the question yesterday and I did check a random YouGov. In that particular poll Brexit Party voters were 2:1 2017 Conservative: Labour voters.
So not unreasonable to think about a net benefit of 4% to the Tories. Don't know why that's necessarily more salient though.
It's entirely consistent with Farage that he is teasing the media to win more attention for an unexciting announcement that they are standing candidates in every seat. Although he might be looking for the least humiliating way to exit the contest.
Soldiers at Marble Arch station selling poppies and shouting ‘have you got your poppy yet sir?’ to passers by.
The slow but inexorable drift towards militarism over my lifetime continues.
I am trying to recall when this fucking pointless shit became so pervasive. I think it was after Iraq II.
I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one.
Don't forget that there was some imperceptible time as you say around Iraq II/Afghan that soldiers stopped being the nation's dirty little secret and became heroes. If I had to guess/be cynical I would say it was to prepare the country for the expected casualty count.
Granby estimates were after all for 150 killed/VSI per day and MOD were new at this war fighting game.
More likely the drift towards Americanism. If America calls anyone in uniform a hero, we should too. Ditto high school proms, the Supreme Court and that guy off The Apprentice HIGNFY running the show.
You forgot Halloween.
Despite Boris's best effort to supplant it with Brexit Day.
44% of voters blame Parliament for the fact we are still in the EU, only 32% blame Boris according to the new Survation poll
No idea what the question was. Personally, I believe we're still in the EU because many of our MPs have been doing their job, in spite of the determined attempt to stop them by the entitled, mendacious, sexpest HYFUD's colleagues dumped on us as Prime Minister.
And I'm proud of them. The only people I blame for anything to do with Brexit are the lunatic fringe of the once-serious Conservative party (that's diverted it from commercial sanity and sound economics) and the neo-Marxist fringe of the Labour party that's diverted it from real social democracy.
Soldiers at Marble Arch station selling poppies and shouting ‘have you got your poppy yet sir?’ to passers by.
The slow but inexorable drift towards militarism over my lifetime continues.
The inexorable drift towards militarism which has seen the number of military personnel reduced year after year ?
Which could be a fruitful angle for BXP to push, if they actually have the balls to stand any candidates against the Conservatives.
A decade ago PB was filled with comments about the 'military covenant' and threats to never vote Conservative again if military personnel were not protected.
Then the issue disappeared after May 2010
The ONS gives 197 thousand military personnel in June 2010 falling to 152 thousand in June 2019.
Oddly enough those people who bewail 'austerity' don't seem to mention the cut in military personnel as something needing to be reversed.
The YouGov Tory lead becomes 10% - much more like Survation - if you adjust the Green vote share to match by transferring those votes to Labour.
I've no doubt at all that the Greens will poll well under 5%.
The more salient point is what happens to the 13% TBP vote if they confirm they are withdrawing from most constituencies including all in Scotland
Someone asked the question yesterday and I did check a random YouGov. In that particular poll Brexit Party voters were 2:1 2017 Conservative: Labour voters.
So not unreasonable to think about a net benefit of 4% to the Tories. Don't know why that's necessarily more salient though.
It's entirely consistent with Farage that he is teasing the media to win more attention for an unexciting announcement that they are standing candidates in every seat. Although he might be looking for the least humiliating way to exit the contest.
Farage is still in the US and the decision will be taken when he's back at the weekend. The "only bother in a few seats" seems to be being pushed by Banks - I rather doubt he'll go for it.
I agree that you can't assume that party supporters move over like a disciplined army. I'd think that where there is no Green candidate they'll split 3 LD 2 Lab 1 random/abstain, where there is no Brexit candidate they'll split Con 8 Lab 4 rest abstain
Dura_Ace said: "I am trying to recall when this fucking pointless shit became so pervasive. I think it was after Iraq II.
I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one."
Thank you Dura Ace. About time someone talked some sense over this. I refuse to wear one too. What on earth must visitors to the UK think of our obsession with this militaristic shit.
Well, if they are visitors from the US, they must wonder why we only support our veterans for 11 days of the year......
It irritated me mildly when, at the end of US domestic flights, everyone was told to stay in their seats while the military got off (usually to applause).
No idea if they still do that.
I'm a libertarian in these things - I think that people who want to show respect by wearing poppies or whatever should be free to do so without criticism, and so should people who don't (I don't myself). Like most of us I have relatives who died in WW2 and I really doubt if they wanted us to quarrel over it.
Given that without a majority he in very short order has attempted to suspend democracy and impose a chaotic no deal Brexit, I’m not inclined to see what he wants to do unshackled.
I sincerely believe the prorogation essentially was a move designed to force his opponents hand.
I THINK the gamed tactic in No 10 was that he'd be ousted for a temp Corbyn or GNU Gov't after which an election would follow in short order OR that he would (And I think he always would cede with the EU over Ireland) get a deal, and its clear he always was going to get a deal and then there'd be sufficient pressure at gunpoint to force No Deal vs Deal through on MPs (And Deal should win in that scenario).
I'm really not interested what the gamed tactic was. He attempted to suspend democracy for his own political ends. He should not be given the benefit of the doubt.
The problems is the remaintelligentsia went in hard saying it was a coup. Most people could see Parliament would be closed for a few extra days before the EU summit when it would normally have been closed for party conference season. Look back now and tell me that Parliament didn’t have time to do what it needed and it could be argued that he did what he did so that his opponents played their hand early giving him time to get a deal.
In the meeting, though, both leaders changed their positions to a remarkable degree, going further than either side’s officials were expecting, according to those I spoke with. Johnson gave way on customs and Varadkar agreed to allow Northern Ireland a voice to consent to any deal imposed upon it. In effect, a simple majority of Northern Ireland’s elected lawmakers could erect a border on the island of Ireland—the exact scenario Ireland and the EU have sought to avoid.
The YouGov Tory lead becomes 10% - much more like Survation - if you adjust the Green vote share to match by transferring those votes to Labour.
I've no doubt at all that the Greens will poll well under 5%.
The more salient point is what happens to the 13% TBP vote if they confirm they are withdrawing from most constituencies including all in Scotland
Someone asked the question yesterday and I did check a random YouGov. In that particular poll Brexit Party voters were 2:1 2017 Conservative: Labour voters.
So not unreasonable to think about a net benefit of 4% to the Tories. Don't know why that's necessarily more salient though.
It's entirely consistent with Farage that he is teasing the media to win more attention for an unexciting announcement that they are standing candidates in every seat. Although he might be looking for the least humiliating way to exit the contest.
Farage is still in the US and the decision will be taken when he's back at the weekend. The "only bother in a few seats" seems to be being pushed by Banks - I rather doubt he'll go for it.
I agree that you can't assume that party supporters move over like a disciplined army. I'd think that where there is no Green candidate they'll split 3 LD 2 Lab 1 random/abstain, where there is no Brexit candidate they'll split Con 8 Lab 4 rest abstain
I'm assuming a 6% Green share splits 2% LD, 2% Lab, 2% Green
At the last general election, political advertising on Facebook by the UK political parties accounted for £3.2m. In comparison, Twitter ads were just £56,500
Bit of a difference between Ken calling it a day at 79, after close on half a century on the job, and a determined careerist like Morgan giving up on a cabinet post at the age of 47...
The YouGov Tory lead becomes 10% - much more like Survation - if you adjust the Green vote share to match by transferring those votes to Labour.
I've no doubt at all that the Greens will poll well under 5%.
The more salient point is what happens to the 13% TBP vote if they confirm they are withdrawing from most constituencies including all in Scotland
Someone asked the question yesterday and I did check a random YouGov. In that particular poll Brexit Party voters were 2:1 2017 Conservative: Labour voters.
So not unreasonable to think about a net benefit of 4% to the Tories. Don't know why that's necessarily more salient though.
It's entirely consistent with Farage that he is teasing the media to win more attention for an unexciting announcement that they are standing candidates in every seat. Although he might be looking for the least humiliating way to exit the contest.
Farage is still in the US and the decision will be taken when he's back at the weekend. The "only bother in a few seats" seems to be being pushed by Banks - I rather doubt he'll go for it.
I agree that you can't assume that party supporters move over like a disciplined army. I'd think that where there is no Green candidate they'll split 3 LD 2 Lab 1 random/abstain, where there is no Brexit candidate they'll split Con 8 Lab 4 rest abstain
But the TBP-curious voter who is inclined to the Tories is more likely to have switched by now than the Labour ones. So if they get squeezed or don't stand Labour will get more benefit going forward.
Soldiers at Marble Arch station selling poppies and shouting ‘have you got your poppy yet sir?’ to passers by.
The slow but inexorable drift towards militarism over my lifetime continues.
I dislike this sort of thing. Let people make their own decisions without hectoring them.
Quite right and well said. I used to wear a poppy every year. Now, I don’t. The insistence that one has to wear one has put me off. It can only be a few days before a TV presenter gets hauled over the coals for failing their duty.
TV presenters already are if they dont.
It doesnt make this annual parade of woe is me society is going to help because if the poppies stuff any less an overreaction and an amusing one at that.
I wear one for 11 days every year from 1st to 11th November, and have done so for decades.
I fail to see what all the fuss is about.
This is so important to me that I keep it special by wearing a poppy only on 11th November and Remembrance Sunday. Polite enquirers are told this. Impolite ones are given a lecture on the freedoms for which my family members died, and who I shall remember with others at our local War Memorial on Sunday 10th November. People are free to start wearing their poppies in October (!) if they like, to wear white poppies, or to oppose or ignore the whole thing. I am free to think they are over the top.
Kipling talked about a 'brutal and licentious soldiery', and that was how the Army, or at least the Other Ranks, were regarded 100 years ago.
The Duke of Wellington: "I don't know what effect these men will have on the enemy, but by God, they terrify me." - 200 years ago.
More recently, there was quite a stink when some of the SAS who went into the Iranian Embassy got ino a little bit of hot water for nicking the Rolex watches off the corpses of the terrorists.
The British Army: best legion of thieves in the world.
A decade ago PB was filled with comments about the 'military covenant' and threats to never vote Conservative again if military personnel were not protected.
Then the issue disappeared after May 2010
The ONS gives 197 thousand military personnel in June 2010 falling to 152 thousand in June 2019.
Oddly enough those people who bewail 'austerity' don't seem to mention the cut in military personnel as something needing to be reversed.
Apart from the traditional anti-Left jibe I think there have been plenty of voices counselling the armed forces have been allowed to reduce too far. Concerns over Russia as well as uncertainty over the future of NATO have made many analysts question whether we have allowed the cuts in the Armed Forces to go too far.
As for your usual nonsense about "austerity" time to nail that with a sack of nails. The problem was the Coalition ring-fenced certain areas of public spending as you well know so the axe fell disproportionately in other areas such as local Government and the Police while spending on the NHS was protected.
Corbyn thinks he can re-negotiate a new deal, get it signed off by the EU into a treaty, then legislate for a referendum including the controversy over including no deal, then pass it to the electoral commission plus 22 weeks for a campaign all within six months, and then we may still be in deadlock
The choice on offer is deal and leave on the 31st January (Boris) or revoke on the same day (Jo)
Add in to labour's proposition another referendum in Scotland and you see how poor labour's offer is
There does appear to be a stunning level of optimism that people will look straight past the BJ bullshit - do or die, dead in a ditch, prepare for no deal and here's NHS cash Mr advertising agency - and go you, he's a man who will die in a ditch to get Brexit done, do or die.
I know that we know a lot of voters are stupid, they've swallowed all manner of guano over Brexit. But the Tory campaign is basically repeat all the stuff that Johnson has failed to do and say you can trust him to deliver them.
Really?
44% of voters blame Parliament for the fact we are still in the EU, only 32% blame Boris according to the new Survation poll
The big question is where those voters come from. If Lib Dem, Labour, SNP, Green probably not too much of a problem for Boris - if Tory then it’s a massive issue
Given that without a majority he in very short order has attempted to suspend democracy and impose a chaotic no deal Brexit, I’m not inclined to see what he wants to do unshackled.
I sincerely believe the prorogation essentially was a move designed to force his opponents hand.
I THINK the gamed tactic in No 10 was that he'd be ousted for a temp Corbyn or GNU Gov't after which an election would follow in short order OR that he would (And I think he always would cede with the EU over Ireland) get a deal, and its clear he always was going to get a deal and then there'd be sufficient pressure at gunpoint to force No Deal vs Deal through on MPs (And Deal should win in that scenario).
I'm really not interested what the gamed tactic was. He attempted to suspend democracy for his own political ends. He should not be given the benefit of the doubt.
The problems is the remaintelligentsia went in hard saying it was a coup. Most people could see Parliament would be closed for a few extra days before the EU summit when it would normally have been closed for party conference season. Look back now and tell me that Parliament didn’t have time to do what it needed and it could be argued that he did what he did so that his opponents played their hand early giving him time to get a deal.
well luckily (at least for fans of continuity in the British constitution) the supreme court ruled the prorogation illegal. otherwise, it could have meant a real constitutional crisis. the British constitution is based on the fiction that the monarch has both absolute power, and is at the same time a powerless figurehead. everything potentially falls apart if prime ministers are allowed to take the piss by doing things like getting the monarch to suspend parliament for weeks in that way. Brexit, and whether parliament in fact would have had time to prevent this or that type of Brexit, and Johnson's motives for acting unconstitutionally, are not that relevant to the wider point.
Soldiers at Marble Arch station selling poppies and shouting ‘have you got your poppy yet sir?’ to passers by.
The slow but inexorable drift towards militarism over my lifetime continues.
I dislike this sort of thing. Let people make their own decisions without hectoring them.
Quite right and well said. I used to wear a poppy every year. Now, I don’t. The insistence that one has to wear one has put me off. It can only be a few days before a TV presenter gets hauled over the coals for failing their duty.
TV presenters already are if they dont.
It doesnt make this annual parade of woe is me society is going to help because if the poppies stuff any less an overreaction and an amusing one at that.
I wear one for 11 days every year from 1st to 11th November, and have done so for decades.
I fail to see what all the fuss is about.
This is so important to me that I keep it special by wearing a poppy only on 11th November and Remembrance Sunday. Polite enquirers are told this. Impolite ones are given a lecture on the freedoms for which my family members died, and who I shall remember with others at our local War Memorial on Sunday 10th November. People are free to start wearing their poppies in October (!) if they like, to wear white poppies, or to oppose or ignore the whole thing. I am free to think they are over the top.
“Over the top.” Awkward choice of phrase on so many levels.
How can not displaying a paper emblem be ‘over the top’? You tried to live and let live but failed by the end of your sanctimonious post.
A decade ago PB was filled with comments about the 'military covenant' and threats to never vote Conservative again if military personnel were not protected.
Then the issue disappeared after May 2010
The ONS gives 197 thousand military personnel in June 2010 falling to 152 thousand in June 2019.
Oddly enough those people who bewail 'austerity' don't seem to mention the cut in military personnel as something needing to be reversed.
Apart from the traditional anti-Left jibe I think there have been plenty of voices counselling the armed forces have been allowed to reduce too far. Concerns over Russia as well as uncertainty over the future of NATO have made many analysts question whether we have allowed the cuts in the Armed Forces to go too far.
As for your usual nonsense about "austerity" time to nail that with a sack of nails. The problem was the Coalition ring-fenced certain areas of public spending as you well know so the axe fell disproportionately in other areas such as local Government and the Police while spending on the NHS was protected.
Cameron addresses this in his book, contending that the defence budget reduction enabled for substantial capability improvements that would not otherwise have been achievable.
Corbyn thinks he can re-negotiate a new deal, get it signed off by the EU into a treaty, then legislate for a referendum including the controversy over including no deal, then pass it to the electoral commission plus 22 weeks for a campaign all within six months, and then we may still be in deadlock
The choice on offer is deal and leave on the 31st January (Boris) or revoke on the same day (Jo)
Add in to labour's proposition another referendum in Scotland and you see how poor labour's offer is
No more pie in the sky than most of labour policy platform....
Given that without a majority he in very short order has attempted to suspend democracy and impose a chaotic no deal Brexit, I’m not inclined to see what he wants to do unshackled.
I sincerely believe the prorogation essentially was a move designed to force his opponents hand.
I THINK the gamed tactic in No 10 was that he'd be ousted for a temp Corbyn or GNU Gov't after which an election would follow in short order OR that he would (And I think he always would cede with the EU over Ireland) get a deal, and its clear he always was going to get a deal and then there'd be sufficient pressure at gunpoint to force No Deal vs Deal through on MPs (And Deal should win in that scenario).
I'm really not interested what the gamed tactic was. He attempted to suspend democracy for his own political ends. He should not be given the benefit of the doubt.
The problems is the remaintelligentsia went in hard saying it was a coup. Most people could see Parliament would be closed for a few extra days before the EU summit when it would normally have been closed for party conference season. Look back now and tell me that Parliament didn’t have time to do what it needed and it could be argued that he did what he did so that his opponents played their hand early giving him time to get a deal.
It was an attempted coup, an attempt to impose a policy that had no mandate on a Parliament that the government did not control. In the end, you either take democracy seriously or you do not. Sadly, Conservatives by their actions have shown that they do not.
Soldiers at Marble Arch station selling poppies and shouting ‘have you got your poppy yet sir?’ to passers by.
The slow but inexorable drift towards militarism over my lifetime continues.
The inexorable drift towards militarism which has seen the number of military personnel reduced year after year ?
It's compensatory wherein the more etiolated our military, the more stridently mawkish the celebration of it becomes. We're the flabby old bloke in Superdry with a hair weave pretending we've still got it, and that we definitely had it back in the day.
Bit of a difference between Ken calling it a day at 79, after close on half a century on the job, and a determined careerist like Morgan giving up on a cabinet post at the age of 47...
yes we should look at the ages of those standing down to make a fair comparison.
Corbyn thinks he can re-negotiate a new deal, get it signed off by the EU into a treaty, then legislate for a referendum including the controversy over including no deal, then pass it to the electoral commission plus 22 weeks for a campaign all within six months, and then we may still be in deadlock
The choice on offer is deal and leave on the 31st January (Boris) or revoke on the same day (Jo)
Add in to labour's proposition another referendum in Scotland and you see how poor labour's offer is
You might or might not be right but since Boris negotiated his shiny new deal in a few weeks, is there much merit in the Tory campaign suggesting it cannot be done? At least Theresa May could assure us (wrongly, as it turned out and as everyone suspected) that the EU would never reopen negotiations.
Dura_Ace said: "I am trying to recall when this fucking pointless shit became so pervasive. I think it was after Iraq II.
I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one."
Thank you Dura Ace. About time someone talked some sense over this. I refuse to wear one too. What on earth must visitors to the UK think of our obsession with this militaristic shit.
The poppy is about remembrance and the tragedy of war, on remembrance day we say things like "never again" and "lest we forget" . . . if you think that is militaristic that is beyond me.
As for when it became pervasive, I remember it all my life. It was just as pervasiving in my memory in the 80s and 90s.
Dura_Ace said: "I am trying to recall when this fucking pointless shit became so pervasive. I think it was after Iraq II.
I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one."
Thank you Dura Ace. About time someone talked some sense over this. I refuse to wear one too. What on earth must visitors to the UK think of our obsession with this militaristic shit.
Surely the poppy is as much a symbol of the pointlessness of war as it is one of some kind of militarism ? For once, I agree with Nick - I neither refuse to wear, nor insist on wearing one, FWIW.
Dura_Ace said: "I am trying to recall when this fucking pointless shit became so pervasive. I think it was after Iraq II.
I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one."
Thank you Dura Ace. About time someone talked some sense over this. I refuse to wear one too. What on earth must visitors to the UK think of our obsession with this militaristic shit.
The poppy is about remembrance and the tragedy of war, on remembrance day we say things like "never again" and "lest we forget" . . . if you think that is militaristic that is beyond me.
As for when it became pervasive, I remember it all my life. It was just as pervasiving in my memory in the 80s and 90s.
A decade ago PB was filled with comments about the 'military covenant' and threats to never vote Conservative again if military personnel were not protected.
Then the issue disappeared after May 2010
The ONS gives 197 thousand military personnel in June 2010 falling to 152 thousand in June 2019.
Oddly enough those people who bewail 'austerity' don't seem to mention the cut in military personnel as something needing to be reversed.
Apart from the traditional anti-Left jibe I think there have been plenty of voices counselling the armed forces have been allowed to reduce too far. Concerns over Russia as well as uncertainty over the future of NATO have made many analysts question whether we have allowed the cuts in the Armed Forces to go too far.
As for your usual nonsense about "austerity" time to nail that with a sack of nails. The problem was the Coalition ring-fenced certain areas of public spending as you well know so the axe fell disproportionately in other areas such as local Government and the Police while spending on the NHS was protected.
I quite agree that there have been cuts but that's not the same thing as austerity.
And the coalition didn't just ring fence certain areas of public spending they also increased spending in other areas - triple lock pensions, help-to-buy and International Aid as examples.
Likewise in the taxation system the increase in personal allowances, the introduction of pensioner bonds and the holding down of council tax and fuel duties are examples of non-austerity.
Not so sure this time. An election has been Labour policy. The electon was essentially triggered by the SNP and the LibDems. And an election has looked like the only way out of this Brexit impasse for months. So where is the momentum comng from for them to change so drastically?
What are those little extrapolations of Lab and TBP ?
I think they are just dots connecting the labels to the line because there wasn't space to put the labels exactly adjacent. Solving a small confusion by creating a larger one.
Corbyn thinks he can re-negotiate a new deal, get it signed off by the EU into a treaty, then legislate for a referendum including the controversy over including no deal, then pass it to the electoral commission plus 22 weeks for a campaign all within six months, and then we may still be in deadlock
The choice on offer is deal and leave on the 31st January (Boris) or revoke on the same day (Jo)
Add in to labour's proposition another referendum in Scotland and you see how poor labour's offer is
You might or might not be right but since Boris negotiated his shiny new deal in a few weeks, is there much merit in the Tory campaign suggesting it cannot be done? At least Theresa May could assure us (wrongly, as it turned out and as everyone suspected) that the EU would never reopen negotiations.
I have no doubt it could be done but not in the time scale. From opening discussions with the EU to holding the referendum could take upto 9 months or even more
Not so sure this time. An election has been Labour policy. The electon was essentially triggered by the SNP and the LibDems. And an election has looked like the only way out of this Brexit impasse for months. So where is the momentum comng from for them to change so drastically?
Airtime. For the last 4-6 weeks the Conservatives have been able to use the platform of government, up to and including a pretend Queen's Speech, to set out their policies and get captive news coverage with no requirement on the broadcasters to balance with the opposition parties' response to those announcements. That changes in the campaign period.
The YouGov Tory lead becomes 10% - much more like Survation - if you adjust the Green vote share to match by transferring those votes to Labour.
I've no doubt at all that the Greens will poll well under 5%.
The more salient point is what happens to the 13% TBP vote if they confirm they are withdrawing from most constituencies including all in Scotland
Someone asked the question yesterday and I did check a random YouGov. In that particular poll Brexit Party voters were 2:1 2017 Conservative: Labour voters.
So not unreasonable to think about a net benefit of 4% to the Tories. Don't know why that's necessarily more salient though.
It's entirely consistent with Farage that he is teasing the media to win more attention for an unexciting announcement that they are standing candidates in every seat. Although he might be looking for the least humiliating way to exit the contest.
Farage is still in the US and the decision will be taken when he's back at the weekend. The "only bother in a few seats" seems to be being pushed by Banks - I rather doubt he'll go for it.
I agree that you can't assume that party supporters move over like a disciplined army. I'd think that where there is no Green candidate they'll split 3 LD 2 Lab 1 random/abstain, where there is no Brexit candidate they'll split Con 8 Lab 4 rest abstain
But the TBP-curious voter who is inclined to the Tories is more likely to have switched by now than the Labour ones. So if they get squeezed or don't stand Labour will get more benefit going forward.
This isn't what at least one YouGov opinion poll showed, but if it's true then it creates a situation where the best way for Farage to scupper Brexit (and prolong the grievance he works with) is to stand aside and be applauded for not splitting the Leave vote. Genius.
Soldiers at Marble Arch station selling poppies and shouting ‘have you got your poppy yet sir?’ to passers by.
The slow but inexorable drift towards militarism over my lifetime continues.
I dislike this sort of thing. Let people make their own decisions without hectoring them.
Quite right and well said. I used to wear a poppy every year. Now, I don’t. The insistence that one has to wear one has put me off. It can only be a few days before a TV presenter gets hauled over the coals for failing their duty.
TV presenters already are if they dont.
It doesnt make this annual parade of woe is me society is going to help because if the poppies stuff any less an overreaction and an amusing one at that.
I wear one for 11 days every year from 1st to 11th November, and have done so for decades.
I fail to see what all the fuss is about.
Of course you do
It’s the politicisation of something that doesn’t need to be politicised and never used to be.
Every year we have the same tedious debate all over again like clockwork. If I was competent enough to search for it quickly /if I could be arsed I’d dig out pb.com posts from early November 2018, early November 2017 and early November 2016 where we had exactly the same debate on here: white poppy/red poppy/no poppy/I hate Iraq/Blair was a c*nt/ I hate the military/Tories etc.
I’m not spending the rest of my life every November arguing about it. It’s a simple act of remembrance and a charity collection. Nothing more. And it’s being going on for more than a hundred years.
Those who want to fume about it should really find something better to do with their time.
Dura_Ace said: "I am trying to recall when this fucking pointless shit became so pervasive. I think it was after Iraq II.
I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one."
Thank you Dura Ace. About time someone talked some sense over this. I refuse to wear one too. What on earth must visitors to the UK think of our obsession with this militaristic shit.
The poppy is about remembrance and the tragedy of war, on remembrance day we say things like "never again" and "lest we forget" . . . if you think that is militaristic that is beyond me.
As for when it became pervasive, I remember it all my life. It was just as pervasiving in my memory in the 80s and 90s.
Were they painting poppies on warplanes in the 80s and 90s?
A decade ago PB was filled with comments about the 'military covenant' and threats to never vote Conservative again if military personnel were not protected.
Then the issue disappeared after May 2010
The ONS gives 197 thousand military personnel in June 2010 falling to 152 thousand in June 2019.
Oddly enough those people who bewail 'austerity' don't seem to mention the cut in military personnel as something needing to be reversed.
Apart from the traditional anti-Left jibe I think there have been plenty of voices counselling the armed forces have been allowed to reduce too far. Concerns over Russia as well as uncertainty over the future of NATO have made many analysts question whether we have allowed the cuts in the Armed Forces to go too far.
As for your usual nonsense about "austerity" time to nail that with a sack of nails. The problem was the Coalition ring-fenced certain areas of public spending as you well know so the axe fell disproportionately in other areas such as local Government and the Police while spending on the NHS was protected.
Cameron addresses this in his book, contending that the defence budget reduction enabled for substantial capability improvements that would not otherwise have been achievable.
I've given up on Cameron's book halfway through. It is badly written and consists of Cameron revisiting every decision ever taken and concluding he was right.
The Ashcroft/Oakeshott biography of Cameron is far better written. The pig story is barely mentioned. The outrage from pb Tories and astroturfers elsewhere was probably designed to distract attention away from drugs. It worked.
Philip_Thompson said: "The poppy is about remembrance and the tragedy of war, on remembrance day we say things like "never again" and "lest we forget" . . . if you think that is militaristic that is beyond me.
As for when it became pervasive, I remember it all my life. It was just as pervasiving in my memory in the 80s and 90s. Flag Quote · Off Topic "
Well, my memory and experience clearly differs from yours. It is my belief that this gets more intense as each year goes by, to the extent now that to not wear a poppy is seen as being a mark of disrespect.
It is a new tyranny of the majority, which makes it difficult to enact one`s own freedom to differ from the crowd, which seems to think that to not signal one`s remembrance = not remembering at all.
Dura_Ace said: "I am trying to recall when this fucking pointless shit became so pervasive. I think it was after Iraq II.
I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one."
Thank you Dura Ace. About time someone talked some sense over this. I refuse to wear one too. What on earth must visitors to the UK think of our obsession with this militaristic shit.
The poppy is about remembrance and the tragedy of war, on remembrance day we say things like "never again" and "lest we forget" . . . if you think that is militaristic that is beyond me.
As for when it became pervasive, I remember it all my life. It was just as pervasiving in my memory in the 80s and 90s.
Were they painting poppies on warplanes in the 80s and 90s?
No idea, but they were putting poppies on cars and WWII veterans came to our school to talk about their experiences. Its a shame we are losing that generation.
I'd rather our warplanes not be getting used and have poppies on them, than see warplanes in the air fighting and bombing all the time!
Given that without a majority he in very short order has attempted to suspend democracy and impose a chaotic no deal Brexit, I’m not inclined to see what he wants to do unshackled.
I sincerely believe the prorogation essentially was a move designed to force his opponents hand.
I THINK the gamed tactic in No 10 was that he'd be ousted for a temp Corbyn or GNU Gov't after which an election would follow in short order OR that he would (And I think he always would cede with the EU over Ireland) get a deal, and its clear he always was going to get a deal and then there'd be sufficient pressure at gunpoint to force No Deal vs Deal through on MPs (And Deal should win in that scenario).
I'm really not interested what the gamed tactic was. He attempted to suspend democracy for his own political ends. He should not be given the benefit of the doubt.
The problems is the remaintelligentsia went in hard saying it was a coup. Most people could see Parliament would be closed for a few extra days before the EU summit when it would normally have been closed for party conference season. Look back now and tell me that Parliament didn’t have time to do what it needed and it could be argued that he did what he did so that his opponents played their hand early giving him time to get a deal.
It was an attempted coup, an attempt to impose a policy that had no mandate on a Parliament that the government did not control. In the end, you either take democracy seriously or you do not. Sadly, Conservatives by their actions have shown that they do not.
Dura_Ace said: "I am trying to recall when this fucking pointless shit became so pervasive. I think it was after Iraq II.
I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one."
Thank you Dura Ace. About time someone talked some sense over this. I refuse to wear one too. What on earth must visitors to the UK think of our obsession with this militaristic shit.
The poppy is about remembrance and the tragedy of war, on remembrance day we say things like "never again" and "lest we forget" . . . if you think that is militaristic that is beyond me.
As for when it became pervasive, I remember it all my life. It was just as pervasiving in my memory in the 80s and 90s.
Were they painting poppies on warplanes in the 80s and 90s?
Kipling talked about a 'brutal and licentious soldiery', and that was how the Army, or at least the Other Ranks, were regarded 100 years ago.
The Duke of Wellington: "I don't know what effect these men will have on the enemy, but by God, they terrify me." - 200 years ago.
More recently, there was quite a stink when some of the SAS who went into the Iranian Embassy got ino a little bit of hot water for nicking the Rolex watches off the corpses of the terrorists.
The British Army: best legion of thieves in the world.
Jo Grimond wrote that the population of Benedictine in some parts of East Lancashire was due the the East Lancs Regiment raiding a monastery for the stuff in some war or other.
Comments
What does it mean?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-7632205/Ex-City-high-flyer-Nicola-Horlick-guns-trained-Parliament.html
Granby estimates were after all for 150 killed/VSI per day and MOD were new at this war fighting game.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7632771/Now-class-war-comrades.html
I bought a new car for a fast getaway.
So not unreasonable to think about a net benefit of 4% to the Tories. Don't know why that's necessarily more salient though.
It's entirely consistent with Farage that he is teasing the media to win more attention for an unexciting announcement that they are standing candidates in every seat. Although he might be looking for the least humiliating way to exit the contest.
https://twitter.com/CityWagFlies/status/1189660000622387201
Agreed - it`s even worse over there. Perhaps another example of us following their lead?
No idea if they still do that.
Amazing negotiator. What's that EU, you want to annex part of our territory? Go right ahead.
Despite Boris's best effort to supplant it with Brexit Day.
Then the issue disappeared after May 2010
The ONS gives 197 thousand military personnel in June 2010 falling to 152 thousand in June 2019.
Oddly enough those people who bewail 'austerity' don't seem to mention the cut in military personnel as something needing to be reversed.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/30/brexit-party-divided-over-election-tactics
I agree that you can't assume that party supporters move over like a disciplined army. I'd think that where there is no Green candidate they'll split 3 LD 2 Lab 1 random/abstain, where there is no Brexit candidate they'll split Con 8 Lab 4 rest abstain
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1189823934423801857?s=19
In the meeting, though, both leaders changed their positions to a remarkable degree, going further than either side’s officials were expecting, according to those I spoke with. Johnson gave way on customs and Varadkar agreed to allow Northern Ireland a voice to consent to any deal imposed upon it. In effect, a simple majority of Northern Ireland’s elected lawmakers could erect a border on the island of Ireland—the exact scenario Ireland and the EU have sought to avoid.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/10/boris-johnson-brexit-ireland-leo-varadkar/600925/
More recently, there was quite a stink when some of the SAS who went into the Iranian Embassy got ino a little bit of hot water for nicking the Rolex watches off the corpses of the terrorists.
The British Army: best legion of thieves in the world.
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1189810170349703168
More likely to institute a chimney tax
As for your usual nonsense about "austerity" time to nail that with a sack of nails. The problem was the Coalition ring-fenced certain areas of public spending as you well know so the axe fell disproportionately in other areas such as local Government and the Police while spending on the NHS was protected.
The choice on offer is deal and leave on the 31st January (Boris) or revoke on the same day (Jo)
Add in to labour's proposition another referendum in Scotland and you see how poor labour's offer is
How can not displaying a paper emblem be ‘over the top’? You tried to live and let live but failed by the end of your sanctimonious post.
Peak LibDem was some while back too.
As for when it became pervasive, I remember it all my life. It was just as pervasiving in my memory in the 80s and 90s.
For once, I agree with Nick - I neither refuse to wear, nor insist on wearing one, FWIW.
And the coalition didn't just ring fence certain areas of public spending they also increased spending in other areas - triple lock pensions, help-to-buy and International Aid as examples.
Likewise in the taxation system the increase in personal allowances, the introduction of pensioner bonds and the holding down of council tax and fuel duties are examples of non-austerity.
And if the referendum is inconclusive, what then
Every year we have the same tedious debate all over again like clockwork. If I was competent enough to search for it quickly /if I could be arsed I’d dig out pb.com posts from early November 2018, early November 2017 and early November 2016 where we had exactly the same debate on here: white poppy/red poppy/no poppy/I hate Iraq/Blair was a c*nt/ I hate the military/Tories etc.
I’m not spending the rest of my life every November arguing about it. It’s a simple act of remembrance and a charity collection. Nothing more. And it’s being going on for more than a hundred years.
Those who want to fume about it should really find something better to do with their time.
https://twitter.com/RibbonofPoppies/status/1097848401088167936?s=20
The Ashcroft/Oakeshott biography of Cameron is far better written. The pig story is barely mentioned. The outrage from pb Tories and astroturfers elsewhere was probably designed to distract attention away from drugs. It worked.
As for when it became pervasive, I remember it all my life. It was just as pervasiving in my memory in the 80s and 90s.
Flag Quote · Off Topic "
Well, my memory and experience clearly differs from yours. It is my belief that this gets more intense as each year goes by, to the extent now that to not wear a poppy is seen as being a mark of disrespect.
It is a new tyranny of the majority, which makes it difficult to enact one`s own freedom to differ from the crowd, which seems to think that to not signal one`s remembrance = not remembering at all.
Con 34.9% (-)
Lab 24.4% (-0.2)
LD 18.3% (+0.1)
BXP 12.2 (+0.1)
Con 312 (+2)
Lab 222(-2)
LD 46 (-)
I'd rather our warplanes not be getting used and have poppies on them, than see warplanes in the air fighting and bombing all the time!
I suspect for some people its a way of showing off in the same way Christmas decorations are.
Halloween is another example.