Any word from Nigel Farage yet....I am starting to wonder whether he has finally been offered a peerage or the like.
He has a colossal decision to make. He's spent decades campaigning to leave the EU, and he can finally get his hands on the prize - if he reigns in his ego, abandons purity for pragmatism and endorses Boris Johnson. Otherwise, he runs the risk of splitting the Brexit vote and destroying his life's work. I don't envy him his position, and it's right that he takes his time with it.
That is dreadful for Johnson given he is peak honeymoon. LD upto 2010 were usually seen as trustworthy, so that is interesting that Swinson has a positive score as up to a few months ago they were tainted by post 2010. I am surprised that JC has not got worse figures compared to BJ given the Tory/Brexit supporting media output. If I were still a Tory -30 would worry me...
Corbyn has a 7% worse rating than Boris on trustworthy, trails Boris by 23% as best PM and 51% fear a Corbyn Premiership.
That is great for Boris and abysmal for Corbyn on any measure
From looking at the comments Baker seems to be upset the LD have said BJ broke his promise to leave EU on the 31st oct 2019. Also some references to the LD being a local candidate. To be honest unless mainstream media pick it up i dont know why he is bothering as his twitter feed will change no votes in wycombe. Not unless he gets shit faced and starts saying things in intemperate language, which i doubt he will do! Seems a bit of a dull MP!
And he's an experienced pol. He shold know - it's NEVER too early for the LibDems to go dirty....
One factor the writer forgot to mention is accommodation. Those students living in Oxbridge colleges are I understand on termly accommodation I.e. they have to vacate their rooms for each holiday. For newer universities, e.g. The Royal Agricultural University, their accommodation is likely to be sessional, meaning they only have to vacate it at the end of the summer term.
That may have a bearing in matters, but of course private accommodation is also a factor and that may not even be in the same seat - for example, will students at Keele living off-campus live in Newcastle, Stoke or even Stafford?
Hand on heart I'm beginning to get depressed by this election already. I see the ominous cavalry charge of a Boris Johnson blue victory, sweeping us out of the EU, selling off the NHS Donald Trump style and turning this country into a shit hole, like most of America has become.
I shall move abroad. HYUFD will say good riddance and he will be left with his enclave of little Englanders, telling themselves that they've made Britain, sorry England, great again whilst we slide down the economic rankings and the rest of the world increasingly disregards us.
But I haven't given up all hope. Not quite. Two things remain for me. One is that I think we're going to see a significant Cons to LD swing in remain England.
Second, I do not believe that Labour leave voters will vote tory. End of the day, push comes to shove, they're going to stay loyal. Theresa May discovered this. Johnson will too.
I put a small amount on the "Brexit - Meaningful Vote to pass in 2019?" market today, currently at 12.5-17.5.
Feel free to tell me I'm stupid, but as Johnson has reportedly been claiming we could leave on 1 January - which doesn't seem likely - I wonder if he may at least contrive to get the MV passed this year. If he wins a majority, of course.
*IF* (and it's a big if) the Tories win outright then that's not at all stupid. The WAB could be forced through Parliament very quickly; their Lordships would loathe it, of course, but given that Brexit will inevitably be item number 1 in the Tory manifesto they'd be very unwise to get in the way. Unless they really want the "House of Lords (Abolition) Bill" to be the next item of business in the Commons once we've finally left the EU.
OTOH, the Tories probably won't win, in which case Brexit is highly likely to be cancelled.
That is dreadful for Johnson given he is peak honeymoon. LD upto 2010 were usually seen as trustworthy, so that is interesting that Swinson has a positive score as up to a few months ago they were tainted by post 2010. I am surprised that JC has not got worse figures compared to BJ given the Tory/Brexit supporting media output. If I were still a Tory -30 would worry me...
Corbyn has a 7% worse rating than Boris on trustworthy, trails Boris by 23% as best PM and 51% fear a Corbyn Premiership.
That is great for Boris and abysmal for Corbyn on any measure
You're beginning to sound like Allison Pearson
At the same time, you must admit it is quite an achievement for somebody to be thought less trustworthy than Boris Johnson.
If i was the tories i would be somewhat concerned with only an 8% lead.
Why?? Survation is one of the worst pollsters for the Tories (IIRC), we have just come through the broken do-or-die pledge, and the Tories maintain their lead?
This is pleasing for Boris, if I read it right.
Worst pollsters for the Tories = Most accurate at the last GE.
The detailed questions are fascinating and very good for Boris
The worst one for labour is their brexit policy. Basically nobody thinks they have a good one and ultimately despite other issues brexit has to be sorted one way or another.
It's fine. LDs will attack it, but local candidates will be explicit that they are Remainers through and through, and we'll see the 'I'm not sure about Corbyn/Labour policy, but my MP/candidate is trustworthy on this'.
On a UNS basis , this implies 27 gains from Labour offset by 13 losses to LDs and circa 8 to SNP - giving the Tories 324 seats. Of the Labour seats at risk, 5 might well be saved as a result of first term incumbency.
Even 324 seats though would give the Tories a majority effectively with SF not taking their seats and would be enough to get the Boris Deal through without the DUP.
The Tory MPs in Scotland would also benefit from first term incumbency
The current sea change in scottish politics could wipe out the advantage of incumbency. Given Scotland voted 62% remain. That is a big pool of anti-tory tactical voting! The Tories could be gubbed!
The latest Scotland only poll had the Tories losing 8 seats and holding 5 which was already factored in the 324 Tory total
Many are projected to lose by very small margins - and that is with the Brexit Party standing. If there are no BXP candidates, where do their votes go? If predominently to the SCONs, then there might be a few more hang on than were expected......
On a UNS basis , this implies 27 gains from Labour offset by 13 losses to LDs and circa 8 to SNP - giving the Tories 324 seats. Of the Labour seats at risk, 5 might well be saved as a result of first term incumbency.
Even 324 seats though would give the Tories a majority effectively with SF not taking their seats and would be enough to get the Boris Deal through without the DUP.
The Tory MPs in Scotland would also benefit from first term incumbency
The current sea change in scottish politics could wipe out the advantage of incumbency. Given Scotland voted 62% remain. That is a big pool of anti-tory tactical voting! The Tories could be gubbed!
The latest Scotland only poll had the Tories losing 8 seats and holding 5 which was already factored in the 324 Tory total
Many are projected to lose by very small margins - and that is with the Brexit Party standing. If there are no BXP candidates, where do their votes go? If predominently to the SCONs, then there might be a few more hang on than were expected......
I am also wondering a bit about how the SNP demand for a new referendum will play out. Polling suggests that reaction to that is mixed at best. Meanwhile, with Labour having imploded and the Liberal Democrats a regional force in Scotland, where do Unionists go?
That said I would still expect fairly significant SNP gains.
Hand on heart I'm beginning to get depressed by this election already. I see the ominous cavalry charge of a Boris Johnson blue victory, sweeping us out of the EU, selling off the NHS Donald Trump style and turning this country into a shit hole, like most of America has become.
I shall move abroad. HYUFD will say good riddance and he will be left with his enclave of little Englanders, telling themselves that they've made Britain, sorry England, great again whilst we slide down the economic rankings and the rest of the world increasingly disregards us.
But I haven't given up all hope. Not quite. Two things remain for me. One is that I think we're going to see a significant Cons to LD swing in remain England.
Second, I do not believe that Labour leave voters will vote tory. End of the day, push comes to shove, they're going to stay loyal. Theresa May discovered this. Johnson will too.
Not convinced the LDs will do as well as people imagine they will. The Labour robot vote, on the other hand, may prove (as in 2017) to be very much stickier than has been supposed.
Thus, there probably won't be a Conservative majority: assuming that they win back all the seats of the whipless rebels, and allowing for losses to the SNP and LDs, the Tories may need as few as 20 gains from Labour to scrape a working majority - but I'm still sceptical that they'll be able to do it. Whatever lies they tell the pollsters, most Labour voters would back the party if Satan were leader and the manifesto consisted of boiling their own children to death in cauldrons of hot oil. The 2017 experience tells us that Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister may not exactly be as hard a sell as is widely assumed.
Hand on heart I'm beginning to get depressed by this election already. I see the ominous cavalry charge of a Boris Johnson blue victory, sweeping us out of the EU, selling off the NHS Donald Trump style and turning this country into a shit hole, like most of America has become.
I shall move abroad. HYUFD will say good riddance and he will be left with his enclave of little Englanders, telling themselves that they've made Britain, sorry England, great again whilst we slide down the economic rankings and the rest of the world increasingly disregards us.
But I haven't given up all hope. Not quite. Two things remain for me. One is that I think we're going to see a significant Cons to LD swing in remain England.
Second, I do not believe that Labour leave voters will vote tory. End of the day, push comes to shove, they're going to stay loyal. Theresa May discovered this. Johnson will too.
Not convinced the LDs will do as well as people imagine they will. The Labour robot vote, on the other hand, may prove (as in 2017) to be very much stickier than has been supposed.
Thus, there probably won't be a Conservative majority: assuming that they win back all the seats of the whipless rebels, and allowing for losses to the SNP and LDs, the Tories may need as few as 20 gains from Labour to scrape a working majority - but I'm still sceptical that they'll be able to do it. Whatever lies they tell the pollsters, most Labour voters would back the party if Satan were leader and the manifesto consisted of boiling their own children to death in cauldrons of hot oil. The 2017 experience tells us that Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister may not exactly be as hard a sell as is widely assumed.
I think you're on the money with this. My only caveat is that I think the LD's may poll between 17-19% nationally. Results coming in from locals continue to show a swing in England from Cons to LDs. But I suspect you're also right & that whilst we're going to hear talk of momentous things, the reality will be a lot more measured.
On the Labour point, I'm with you 100%.
I guess the key figure if this is the way it goes would be whether Cons + DUP reaches the threshold. Because if it doesn't, they're stuffed. There's no one else left to help them out and there won't be flakey independents floating around.
The other point, as an aside, is that if the Cons didn't make it over the line on their own the DUP price for cooperation would certainly be the re-writing of the WAB.
The other point, as an aside, is that if the Cons didn't make it over the line on their own the DUP price for cooperation would certainly be the re-writing of the WAB.
I'm not at all sure that the DUP could be bought even at that price. They've been betrayed by the Tories and they have very, very long memories.
True, they also absolutely loathe the current Labour leadership, but *NOT* the Labour Party itself, as a point of principle. In a situation where the DUP control the balance of power as per 2017, I can see them voting confidence in Corbyn. Under such circumstances, Labour would be so far short of a majority it would need everybody else's support - meaning that parties like the DUP and Lib Dems could veto all of its most contentious policy ideas at will - leaving the Remain Alliance to do the only things it could actually agree on: either negotiating an ultra-soft Brexit and then holding a deal/remain referendum, or revoking A50 (if the EU finally tires of offering extensions.)
With some EU members getting very impatient with us, and with the big decisions on the next EU budget looming next Spring, I wouldn't be entirely surprised if a further extension is refused. In which case Hung Parliament, Revocation, and another GE next March is not an inconceivable sequence of events.
Hand on heart I'm beginning to get depressed by this election already. I see the ominous cavalry charge of a Boris Johnson blue victory, sweeping us out of the EU, selling off the NHS Donald Trump style and turning this country into a shit hole, like most of America has become.
I shall move abroad. HYUFD will say good riddance and he will be left with his enclave of little Englanders, telling themselves that they've made Britain, sorry England, great again whilst we slide down the economic rankings and the rest of the world increasingly disregards us.
But I haven't given up all hope. Not quite. Two things remain for me. One is that I think we're going to see a significant Cons to LD swing in remain England.
Second, I do not believe that Labour leave voters will vote tory. End of the day, push comes to shove, they're going to stay loyal. Theresa May discovered this. Johnson will too.
You are Paul O'Grady and I claim my £5.
The have been loads of left leaning luvvies claiming that they would emigrate if the Tories won, but it never happens. Its spineless twaddle.
On a UNS basis , this implies 27 gains from Labour offset by 13 losses to LDs and circa 8 to SNP - giving the Tories 324 seats. Of the Labour seats at risk, 5 might well be saved as a result of first term incumbency.
Even 324 seats though would give the Tories a majority effectively with SF not taking their seats and would be enough to get the Boris Deal through without the DUP.
The Tory MPs in Scotland would also benefit from first term incumbency
The current sea change in scottish politics could wipe out the advantage of incumbency. Given Scotland voted 62% remain. That is a big pool of anti-tory tactical voting! The Tories could be gubbed!
The latest Scotland only poll had the Tories losing 8 seats and holding 5 which was already factored in the 324 Tory total
Many are projected to lose by very small margins - and that is with the Brexit Party standing. If there are no BXP candidates, where do their votes go? If predominently to the SCONs, then there might be a few more hang on than were expected......
I am also wondering a bit about how the SNP demand for a new referendum will play out. Polling suggests that reaction to that is mixed at best. Meanwhile, with Labour having imploded and the Liberal Democrats a regional force in Scotland, where do Unionists go?
That said I would still expect fairly significant SNP gains.
BXP saying they won't put up candidates in Scotland is an easy gimme for Boris. They might put up a candidate against "Revoke" Swinson just to make a point, but otherwise polling suggests it will save them 50+ deposits by standing down.
If Boris has a tiny majority on Dec 13th, first priority might be to revoke the FTPA? At least then he can start wargaming when to call another election if he loses that majority....
Totally off topic...apparently there are 500,000 meth addicts in California. How can you have a functioning society when so many people are addicted to those kind of drugs.
Seems to be a case of meth addicts on the west coast and opioid addicts elsewhere in the US.
We have a higher class of drug addict on the West coast.
Best chance of No Deal is probably 320 Tory MPs. One more and WA passes with Flint. Less and the chance of an anti "No Deal" rebellion (Vaizey, Hammond S) succeeds.
Not convinced the LDs will do as well as people imagine they will. The Labour robot vote, on the other hand, may prove (as in 2017) to be very much stickier than has been supposed.
A lot of what you call the "Labour robot vote" is actually a "keep the tories out" vote. In around 2/3s of the seats in England a vote for the Lib-Dems is as effective as abstaining.
Hand on heart I'm beginning to get depressed by this election already. I see the ominous cavalry charge of a Boris Johnson blue victory, sweeping us out of the EU, selling off the NHS Donald Trump style and turning this country into a shit hole, like most of America has become.
I shall move abroad. HYUFD will say good riddance and he will be left with his enclave of little Englanders, telling themselves that they've made Britain, sorry England, great again whilst we slide down the economic rankings and the rest of the world increasingly disregards us.
But I haven't given up all hope. Not quite. Two things remain for me. One is that I think we're going to see a significant Cons to LD swing in remain England.
Second, I do not believe that Labour leave voters will vote tory. End of the day, push comes to shove, they're going to stay loyal. Theresa May discovered this. Johnson will too.
You are Paul O'Grady and I claim my £5.
The have been loads of left leaning luvvies claiming that they would emigrate if the Tories won, but it never happens. Its spineless twaddle.
If Boris has a tiny majority on Dec 13th, first priority might be to revoke the FTPA? At least then he can start wargaming when to call another election if he loses that majority....
In theory, almost any majority will do - but yes, if it's literally only one then he might need to make contingency plans for another election. In practice, if the working majority is five or more the Tories are probably safe for an entire Parliament. We're not living in the 70s, MP's health isn't such an issue anymore.
In the event of a Tory win (which I don't expect, but it is possible) then I'd expect priorities after Brexit to include amending or replacing the FTPA and, more crucially, the completion of boundary reform. I can't remember the exact figures, but redrawing the undersized inner city and Welsh constituencies must be worth at least a couple of dozen seats to the Tories going into any subsequent election.
If Boris has a tiny majority on Dec 13th, first priority might be to revoke the FTPA? At least then he can start wargaming when to call another election if he loses that majority....
This is another good reason why we should have a solid written constitution, rather than a bunch of laws on constitutional matters which are thought up in a couple of months and precedents that date back to the Civil War, which are then repealed the next time a government doesn't like it.
In many countries the a majority is insufficient to change rules such as voting age and the right to call an election, a two-thirds majority is the norm.
I still don’t know what I’d be voting for if I voted Conservative.
Funnily enough, I’m not that keen on spunking borrowed money left, right and centre and I have no idea if the Tories will be offering a path to fiscal sanity either.
If Boris has a tiny majority on Dec 13th, first priority might be to revoke the FTPA? At least then he can start wargaming when to call another election if he loses that majority....
In theory, almost any majority will do - but yes, if it's literally only one then he might need to make contingency plans for another election. In practice, if the working majority is five or more the Tories are probably safe for an entire Parliament. We're not living in the 70s, MP's health isn't such an issue anymore.
In the event of a Tory win (which I don't expect, but it is possible) then I'd expect priorities after Brexit to include amending or replacing the FTPA and, more crucially, the completion of boundary reform. I can't remember the exact figures, but redrawing the undersized inner city and Welsh constituencies must be worth at least a couple of dozen seats to the Tories going into any subsequent election.
Contrary to popular opinion Farage and the Brexit Party are likely to benefit Johnson's Tories rather than damage them. Adding weight to the Leave argument during the election campaign will inevitably help the market leader which is Johnson's Tories.
Contrary to popular opinion Farage and the Brexit Party are likely to benefit Johnson's Tories rather than damage them. Adding weight to the Leave argument during the election campaign will inevitably help the market leader which is Johnson's Tories.
You mean that air time for Farage will help the tories.
Votes for BP in any signficant number will come primarily from tory floaters.
Contrary to popular opinion Farage and the Brexit Party are likely to benefit Johnson's Tories rather than damage them. Adding weight to the Leave argument during the election campaign will inevitably help the market leader which is Johnson's Tories.
You mean that air time for Farage will help the tories.
Votes for BP in any signficant number will come primarily from tory floaters.
If Boris has a tiny majority on Dec 13th, first priority might be to revoke the FTPA? At least then he can start wargaming when to call another election if he loses that majority....
In theory, almost any majority will do - but yes, if it's literally only one then he might need to make contingency plans for another election. In practice, if the working majority is five or more the Tories are probably safe for an entire Parliament. We're not living in the 70s, MP's health isn't such an issue anymore.
In the event of a Tory win (which I don't expect, but it is possible) then I'd expect priorities after Brexit to include amending or replacing the FTPA and, more crucially, the completion of boundary reform. I can't remember the exact figures, but redrawing the undersized inner city and Welsh constituencies must be worth at least a couple of dozen seats to the Tories going into any subsequent election.
That's to pass the WAIB. The threshold for governance is lower.
The Conservatives will be friendless in Parliament under such circumstances. There's little they'd be able to get done without maintaining a majority.
The DUP will stick them in power for 5 miserable long years if they hit 312-321.
No chance the WAIB gets through though. But he will be PM
That would be interesting. If BJ sees his opportunity to be in No. 10 for the next five years, but only if he scraps "his Deal". Which option would he go for?
The other point, as an aside, is that if the Cons didn't make it over the line on their own the DUP price for cooperation would certainly be the re-writing of the WAB.
In a situation where the DUP control the balance of power as per 2017, I can see them voting confidence in Corbyn. Under such circumstances, Labour would be so far short of a majority it would need everybody else's support - meaning that parties like the DUP and Lib Dems could veto all of its most contentious policy ideas at will - leaving the Remain Alliance to do the only things it could actually agree on: either negotiating an ultra-soft Brexit and then holding a deal/remain referendum, or revoking A50 (if the EU finally tires of offering extensions.) .
Given that the DUP says it supports Brexit, it's really difficult to see any Brexit position it could agree on with the LDs and SNP. Which implies they'd be the last group Corbybn (or an alternative Labour leader) would call on to support an Anti-Tory alliance.
Pity really: because the thought of extreme Corbynism being kept down (and therefore sane social democracy enforced) by a DUP/LD/SNP pressure group within a Labour-dominated alliance has a tremendous charm.
One-nation social democracy without a slimy Cameron or Blair-style posho leader? What's not to like?
If Boris has a tiny majority on Dec 13th, first priority might be to revoke the FTPA? At least then he can start wargaming when to call another election if he loses that majority....
In theory, almost any majority will do - but yes, if it's literally only one then he might need to make contingency plans for another election. In practice, if the working majority is five or more the Tories are probably safe for an entire Parliament. We're not living in the 70s, MP's health isn't such an issue anymore.
In the event of a Tory win (which I don't expect, but it is possible) then I'd expect priorities after Brexit to include amending or replacing the FTPA and, more crucially, the completion of boundary reform. I can't remember the exact figures, but redrawing the undersized inner city and Welsh constituencies must be worth at least a couple of dozen seats to the Tories going into any subsequent election.
That's to pass the WAIB. The threshold for governance is lower.
The Conservatives will be friendless in Parliament under such circumstances. There's little they'd be able to get done without maintaining a majority.
The DUP will stick them in power for 5 miserable long years if they hit 312-321.
No chance the WAIB gets through though. But he will be PM
That would be interesting. If BJ sees his opportunity to be in No. 10 for the next five years, but only if he scraps "his Deal". Which option would he go for?
Which one would a third rate unprincipled chancer who is only interested in staying in power go for?
If Boris has a tiny majority on Dec 13th, first priority might be to revoke the FTPA? At least then he can start wargaming when to call another election if he loses that majority....
In theory, almost any majority will do - but yes, if it's literally only one then he might need to make contingency plans for another election. In practice, if the working majority is five or more the Tories are probably safe for an entire Parliament. We're not living in the 70s, MP's health isn't such an issue anymore.
In the event of a Tory win (which I don't expect, but it is possible) then I'd expect priorities after Brexit to include amending or replacing the FTPA and, more crucially, the completion of boundary reform. I can't remember the exact figures, but redrawing the undersized inner city and Welsh constituencies must be worth at least a couple of dozen seats to the Tories going into any subsequent election.
That's to pass the WAIB. The threshold for governance is lower.
The Conservatives will be friendless in Parliament under such circumstances. There's little they'd be able to get done without maintaining a majority.
The DUP will stick them in power for 5 miserable long years if they hit 312-321.
No chance the WAIB gets through though. But he will be PM
A Tory win spells chaos or at least that's how the the opposition will try to paint it. A dystopian vision of more of the same is Corbyn's best chance in my opinion. We've seen what a Johnson government looks like and it's not a pretty sight.
The other point, as an aside, is that if the Cons didn't make it over the line on their own the DUP price for cooperation would certainly be the re-writing of the WAB.
In a situation where the DUP control the balance of power as per 2017, I can see them voting confidence in Corbyn. Under such circumstances, Labour would be so far short of a majority it would need everybody else's support - meaning that parties like the DUP and Lib Dems could veto all of its most contentious policy ideas at will - leaving the Remain Alliance to do the only things it could actually agree on: either negotiating an ultra-soft Brexit and then holding a deal/remain referendum, or revoking A50 (if the EU finally tires of offering extensions.) .
Given that the DUP says it supports Brexit, it's really difficult to see any Brexit position it could agree on with the LDs and SNP. Which implies they'd be the last group Corbybn (or an alternative Labour leader) would call on to support an Anti-Tory alliance.
Pity really: because the thought of extreme Corbynism being kept down (and therefore sane social democracy enforced) by a DUP/LD/SNP pressure group within a Labour-dominated alliance has a tremendous charm.
One-nation social democracy without a slimy Cameron or Blair-style posho leader? What's not to like?
But you just said or at least heavily implied that Corbyn would be Leader.
If Boris has a tiny majority on Dec 13th, first priority might be to revoke the FTPA? At least then he can start wargaming when to call another election if he loses that majority....
In theory, almost any majority will do - but yes, if it's literally only one then he might need to make contingency plans for another election. In practice, if the working majority is five or more the Tories are probably safe for an entire Parliament. We're not living in the 70s, MP's health isn't such an issue anymore.
In the event of a Tory win (which I don't expect, but it is possible) then I'd expect priorities after Brexit to include amending or replacing the FTPA and, more crucially, the completion of boundary reform. I can't remember the exact figures, but redrawing the undersized inner city and Welsh constituencies must be worth at least a couple of dozen seats to the Tories going into any subsequent election.
That's to pass the WAIB. The threshold for governance is lower.
The Conservatives will be friendless in Parliament under such circumstances. There's little they'd be able to get done without maintaining a majority.
The DUP will stick them in power for 5 miserable long years if they hit 312-321.
No chance the WAIB gets through though. But he will be PM
That would be interesting. If BJ sees his opportunity to be in No. 10 for the next five years, but only if he scraps "his Deal". Which option would he go for?
But, but, but he PROMISED!!!!! Do or die he said!!!!
If Boris has a tiny majority on Dec 13th, first priority might be to revoke the FTPA? At least then he can start wargaming when to call another election if he loses that majority....
In theory, almost any majority will do - but yes, if it's literally only one then he might need to make contingency plans for another election. In practice, if the working majority is five or more the Tories are probably safe for an entire Parliament. We're not living in the 70s, MP's health isn't such an issue anymore.
In the event of a Tory win (which I don't expect, but it is possible) then I'd expect priorities after Brexit to include amending or replacing the FTPA and, more crucially, the completion of boundary reform. I can't remember the exact figures, but redrawing the undersized inner city and Welsh constituencies must be worth at least a couple of dozen seats to the Tories going into any subsequent election.
That's to pass the WAIB. The threshold for governance is lower.
The Conservatives will be friendless in Parliament under such circumstances. There's little they'd be able to get done without maintaining a majority.
The DUP will stick them in power for 5 miserable long years if they hit 312-321.
No chance the WAIB gets through though. But he will be PM
A Tory win spells chaos or at least that's how the the opposition will try to paint it. A dystopian vision of more of the same is Corbyn's best chance in my opinion. We've seen what a Johnson government looks like and it's not a pretty sight.
Both sides spell chaos, misgovernment and dodgy dealings with (different) fat cats.
That’s the problem, and it is not a problem that is going away.
If Boris has a tiny majority on Dec 13th, first priority might be to revoke the FTPA? At least then he can start wargaming when to call another election if he loses that majority....
In theory, almost any majority will do - but yes, if it's literally only one then he might need to make contingency plans for another election. In practice, if the working majority is five or more the Tories are probably safe for an entire Parliament. We're not living in the 70s, MP's health isn't such an issue anymore.
In the event of a Tory win (which I don't expect, but it is possible) then I'd expect priorities after Brexit to include amending or replacing the FTPA and, more crucially, the completion of boundary reform. I can't remember the exact figures, but redrawing the undersized inner city and Welsh constituencies must be worth at least a couple of dozen seats to the Tories going into any subsequent election.
That's to pass the WAIB. The threshold for governance is lower.
The Conservatives will be friendless in Parliament under such circumstances. There's little they'd be able to get done without maintaining a majority.
The DUP will stick them in power for 5 miserable long years if they hit 312-321.
No chance the WAIB gets through though. But he will be PM
A Tory win spells chaos or at least that's how the the opposition will try to paint it. A dystopian vision of more of the same is Corbyn's best chance in my opinion. We've seen what a Johnson government looks like and it's not a pretty sight.
We've seen a true minority Johnson Govt - that's all.
Lindsay Hoyle as Speaker is another vote lost to Labour...
It's not since there are 4 speakers effectively 2 Lab 2 Con
I may be overthinking this, but I also wonder if electing a new Squeaker next week has the advantage of ensuring Kenneth Clarke is in charge. After the election there is a non-trivial possibility that Dennis Skinner will be Father of the House and would refuse to co-operate in running the election.
Contrary to popular opinion Farage and the Brexit Party are likely to benefit Johnson's Tories rather than damage them. Adding weight to the Leave argument during the election campaign will inevitably help the market leader which is Johnson's Tories.
Actually, that’s something on which you might be right. Being, as it is, based on advertising dynamics of which you have extensive experience.
It’ll be the Labour share that’s decisive. And that will be in spite of Corbyn this time not because of him. I’m still very far from convinced the Tories will gobble up Labour seats with their new big-spending hats on.
The voting patterns up there are reflexive, guttural and visceral.
If Boris has a tiny majority on Dec 13th, first priority might be to revoke the FTPA? At least then he can start wargaming when to call another election if he loses that majority....
In theory, almost any majority will do - but yes, if it's literally only one then he might need to make contingency plans for another election. In practice, if the working majority is five or more the Tories are probably safe for an entire Parliament. We're not living in the 70s, MP's health isn't such an issue anymore.
In the event of a Tory win (which I don't expect, but it is possible) then I'd expect priorities after Brexit to include amending or replacing the FTPA and, more crucially, the completion of boundary reform. I can't remember the exact figures, but redrawing the undersized inner city and Welsh constituencies must be worth at least a couple of dozen seats to the Tories going into any subsequent election.
That's to pass the WAIB. The threshold for governance is lower.
The Conservatives will be friendless in Parliament under such circumstances. There's little they'd be able to get done without maintaining a majority.
The DUP will stick them in power for 5 miserable long years if they hit 312-321.
No chance the WAIB gets through though. But he will be PM
A Tory win spells chaos or at least that's how the the opposition will try to paint it. A dystopian vision of more of the same is Corbyn's best chance in my opinion. We've seen what a Johnson government looks like and it's not a pretty sight.
We've seen a true minority Johnson Govt - that's all.
Given that without a majority he in very short order has attempted to suspend democracy and impose a chaotic no deal Brexit, I’m not inclined to see what he wants to do unshackled.
Blackford has been one of the stars of the last few months in parliament. A massive boost to the Remain side. I doubt he's going anywhere.
I agree he’s done a reasonable job, in parliament at least, and hope the Scottish LibDems have better priorities for their campaign. Leading any opposition party in the Commons is a tough job, especially a minor one.
Contrary to popular opinion Farage and the Brexit Party are likely to benefit Johnson's Tories rather than damage them. Adding weight to the Leave argument during the election campaign will inevitably help the market leader which is Johnson's Tories.
To get air time, however, they do need to field a lot of candidates.
If Boris has a tiny majority on Dec 13th, first priority might be to revoke the FTPA? At least then he can start wargaming when to call another election if he loses that majority....
In theory, almost any majority will do - but yes, if it's literally only one then he might need to make contingency plans for another election. In practice, if the working majority is five or more the Tories are probably safe for an entire Parliament. We're not living in the 70s, MP's health isn't such an issue anymore.
In the event of a Tory win (which I don't expect, but it is possible) then I'd expect priorities after Brexit to include amending or replacing the FTPA and, more crucially, the completion of boundary reform. I can't remember the exact figures, but redrawing the undersized inner city and Welsh constituencies must be worth at least a couple of dozen seats to the Tories going into any subsequent election.
That's to pass the WAIB. The threshold for governance is lower.
The Conservatives will be friendless in Parliament under such circumstances. There's little they'd be able to get done without maintaining a majority.
The DUP will stick them in power for 5 miserable long years if they hit 312-321.
No chance the WAIB gets through though. But he will be PM
A Tory win spells chaos or at least that's how the the opposition will try to paint it. A dystopian vision of more of the same is Corbyn's best chance in my opinion. We've seen what a Johnson government looks like and it's not a pretty sight.
We've seen a true minority Johnson Govt - that's all.
Given that without a majority he in very short order has attempted to suspend democracy and impose a chaotic no deal Brexit, I’m not inclined to see what he wants to do unshackled.
Contrary to popular opinion Farage and the Brexit Party are likely to benefit Johnson's Tories rather than damage them. Adding weight to the Leave argument during the election campaign will inevitably help the market leader which is Johnson's Tories.
You mean that air time for Farage will help the tories.
Votes for BP in any signficant number will come primarily from tory floaters.
Yes. They are likely to help make the case for leaving and those who want to leave know that only the Tories can make it happen. I can't see many voting Brexit Party if it's likely to rob the Tories of a seat.
By the same token the opposition should collectively gain by having 5 parties selling 'Remain' whatever the minor differences
If i was the tories i would be somewhat concerned with only an 8% lead.
That’s before the BP only stand in a handful of seats . Things could look a lot different next week .
Surely the pollsters will have to remove them from the main question . Or at least have an additional question which asks what would people choose if there’s no BP candidate.
That is far from confirmed. Farage is no fan of the tories.
I find it hard to believe that Farage is going to do anything that benefits anyone other than himself.
I think someone's trying to bounce BXP into a small scale strategy. But even if Farage were not so ego driven, it's a lot of candidates who would need to stand down, he might not be able to persuade the party. He might stick to his guns rather than see candidates say they'll stand as indys or something.
But if he says “you’re not a BXP candidate” presumably they can’t claim to be? At that point they are just another independent without a personal vote
If Boris has a tiny majority on Dec 13th, first priority might be to revoke the FTPA? At least then he can start wargaming when to call another election if he loses that majority....
In theory, almost any majority will do - but yes, if it's literally only one then he might need to make contingency plans for another election. In practice, if the working majority is five or more the Tories are probably safe for an entire Parliament. We're not living in the 70s, MP's health isn't such an issue anymore.
In the event of a Tory win (which I don't expect, but it is possible) then I'd expect priorities after Brexit to include amending or replacing the FTPA and, more crucially, the completion of boundary reform. I can't remember the exact figures, but redrawing the undersized inner city and Welsh constituencies must be worth at least a couple of dozen seats to the Tories going into any subsequent election.
That's to pass the WAIB. The threshold for governance is lower.
The Conservatives will be friendless in Parliament under such circumstances. There's little they'd be able to get done without maintaining a majority.
The DUP will stick them in power for 5 miserable long years if they hit 312-321.
No chance the WAIB gets through though. But he will be PM
A Tory win spells chaos or at least that's how the the opposition will try to paint it. A dystopian vision of more of the same is Corbyn's best chance in my opinion. We've seen what a Johnson government looks like and it's not a pretty sight.
We've seen a true minority Johnson Govt - that's all.
Given that without a majority he in very short order has attempted to suspend democracy and impose a chaotic no deal Brexit, I’m not inclined to see what he wants to do unshackled.
I think that's overstating the case.
It’s a straightforward statement of what has happened since July. The fact that he was thwarted by the courts and Parliament and forced to backtrack does not excuse the attempt.
To misquote Wamba, these Brexit days are making an old man of me. We’ve had three of them already if you count the referendum result and each was supposed to settle the matter for a generation.
Hand on heart I'm beginning to get depressed by this election already. I see the ominous cavalry charge of a Boris Johnson blue victory, sweeping us out of the EU, selling off the NHS Donald Trump style and turning this country into a shit hole, like most of America has become.
I shall move abroad. HYUFD will say good riddance and he will be left with his enclave of little Englanders, telling themselves that they've made Britain, sorry England, great again whilst we slide down the economic rankings and the rest of the world increasingly disregards us.
But I haven't given up all hope. Not quite. Two things remain for me. One is that I think we're going to see a significant Cons to LD swing in remain England.
Second, I do not believe that Labour leave voters will vote tory. End of the day, push comes to shove, they're going to stay loyal. Theresa May discovered this. Johnson will too.
You are Paul O'Grady and I claim my £5.
The have been loads of left leaning luvvies claiming that they would emigrate if the Tories won, but it never happens. Its spineless twaddle.
I'm not a luvvie. It's not twaddle and I will leave.
I've lived all over the world and have no intention of sitting around whilst Johnson's odious turds wreck this country's social infrastructure.
Contrary to popular opinion Farage and the Brexit Party are likely to benefit Johnson's Tories rather than damage them. Adding weight to the Leave argument during the election campaign will inevitably help the market leader which is Johnson's Tories.
To get air time, however, they do need to field a lot of candidates.
Which I think they will. Creating a fanfare before going down to glorious defeat is Farage's only reason for being
Labour are never going to poll as low as 21%...brown hit those kind of poll numbers, but come the election the tribal vote always comes out.
It comes down to if tories can get 36% and keep labour to their floor of about 30%, boris gets his majority. Otherwise, back for more of the same old same old in parliament.
Hand on heart I'm beginning to get depressed by this election already. I see the ominous cavalry charge of a Boris Johnson blue victory, sweeping us out of the EU, selling off the NHS Donald Trump style and turning this country into a shit hole, like most of America has become.
I shall move abroad. HYUFD will say good riddance and he will be left with his enclave of little Englanders, telling themselves that they've made Britain, sorry England, great again whilst we slide down the economic rankings and the rest of the world increasingly disregards us.
But I haven't given up all hope. Not quite. Two things remain for me. One is that I think we're going to see a significant Cons to LD swing in remain England.
Second, I do not believe that Labour leave voters will vote tory. End of the day, push comes to shove, they're going to stay loyal. Theresa May discovered this. Johnson will too.
You are Paul O'Grady and I claim my £5.
The have been loads of left leaning luvvies claiming that they would emigrate if the Tories won, but it never happens. Its spineless twaddle.
If Boris has a tiny majority on Dec 13th, first priority might be to revoke the FTPA? At least then he can start wargaming when to call another election if he loses that majority....
In theory, almost any majority will do - but yes, if it's literally only one then he might need to make contingency plans for another election. In practice, if the working majority is five or more the Tories are probably safe for an entire Parliament. We're not living in the 70s, MP's health isn't such an issue anymore.
In the event of a Tory win (which I don't expect, but it is possible) then I'd expect priorities after Brexit to include amending or replacing the FTPA and, more crucially, the completion of boundary reform. I can't remember the exact figures, but redrawing the undersized inner city and Welsh constituencies must be worth at least a couple of dozen seats to the Tories going into any subsequent election.
That's to pass the WAIB. The threshold for governance is lower.
The Conservatives will be friendless in Parliament under such circumstances. There's little they'd be able to get done without maintaining a majority.
The DUP will stick them in power for 5 miserable long years if they hit 312-321.
No chance the WAIB gets through though. But he will be PM
A Tory win spells chaos or at least that's how the the opposition will try to paint it. A dystopian vision of more of the same is Corbyn's best chance in my opinion. We've seen what a Johnson government looks like and it's not a pretty sight.
We've seen a true minority Johnson Govt - that's all.
We've seen a dishevilled Tory government which reflects their leader. People make connections.
Labour are never going to poll as low as 21%...brown hit those kind of poll numbers, but come the election the tribal vote always comes out.
It comes down to if tories can get 36% and keep labour to their floor of about 30%, boris gets his majority. Otherwise, back for more of the same old same old in parliament.
It's entirely possible Labour could hit less than Brown.
1. Scotland. A couple of percent GB wide and dozens of seats are gone and not coming back any time soon. 2. Wales. Been trending against Labour for a while especially outside Cardiff. Isn't devolution great? 3. Even on this site we have former tribal Labour loyalists who are now Lib Dems.
I won't count any chickens yet. But it's possible.
Blackford has been one of the stars of the last few months in parliament. A massive boost to the Remain side. I doubt he's going anywhere.
I agree he’s done a reasonable job, in parliament at least, and hope the Scottish LibDems have better priorities for their campaign. Leading any opposition party in the Commons is a tough job, especially a minor one.
The Lib Dems have few targets in Scotland. They’ve got to do something. I doubt the SNP are going to hold back on Jo Swinson.
Labour are never going to poll as low as 21%...brown hit those kind of poll numbers, but come the election the tribal vote always comes out.
It comes down to if tories can get 36% and keep labour to their floor of about 30%, boris gets his majority. Otherwise, back for more of the same old same old in parliament.
Where do Labour get that extra 9% from? 2% Greens, 2% LibDems, 5% Brexit?
Labour are never going to poll as low as 21%...brown hit those kind of poll numbers, but come the election the tribal vote always comes out.
It comes down to if tories can get 36% and keep labour to their floor of about 30%, boris gets his majority. Otherwise, back for more of the same old same old in parliament.
Where do Labour get that extra 9% from? 2% Greens, 2% LibDems, 5% Brexit?
There is a big pool of 2017 Labour voters currently saying 'don't know'.
Given that without a majority he in very short order has attempted to suspend democracy and impose a chaotic no deal Brexit, I’m not inclined to see what he wants to do unshackled.
I sincerely believe the prorogation essentially was a move designed to force his opponents hand.
I THINK the gamed tactic in No 10 was that he'd be ousted for a temp Corbyn or GNU Gov't after which an election would follow in short order OR that he would (And I think he always would cede with the EU over Ireland) get a deal, and its clear he always was going to get a deal and then there'd be sufficient pressure at gunpoint to force No Deal vs Deal through on MPs (And Deal should win in that scenario).
If he gets a majority then we will
i) Leave the EU
ii) Extends the internal transitions to get an FTA (This will be where Farage pops up but much of his power will be gone)
iii) Govern fiscally to the left for a Conservative bearing in mind where much of the new support simply must have come from.
I havea bad feeling Labour may do better than expected. They are indestructible.
Out of various vox pops framed around asking if people would be voting for 'Boris' or Corbyn, one answer from a Workington man (who despised Jezza) struck me - 'I'll be voting Labour!'
Hand on heart I'm beginning to get depressed by this election already. I see the ominous cavalry charge of a Boris Johnson blue victory, sweeping us out of the EU, selling off the NHS Donald Trump style and turning this country into a shit hole, like most of America has become.
I shall move abroad. HYUFD will say good riddance and he will be left with his enclave of little Englanders, telling themselves that they've made Britain, sorry England, great again whilst we slide down the economic rankings and the rest of the world increasingly disregards us.
But I haven't given up all hope. Not quite. Two things remain for me. One is that I think we're going to see a significant Cons to LD swing in remain England.
Second, I do not believe that Labour leave voters will vote tory. End of the day, push comes to shove, they're going to stay loyal. Theresa May discovered this. Johnson will too.
You are Paul O'Grady and I claim my £5.
The have been loads of left leaning luvvies claiming that they would emigrate if the Tories won, but it never happens. Its spineless twaddle.
I'm not a luvvie. It's not twaddle and I will leave.
I've lived all over the world and have no intention of sitting around whilst Johnson's odious turds wreck this country's social infrastructure.
Comments
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1189549353037451264?s=20
I guess he reckoned the chances of advancement under a PM he'd called a C*nt were limited.....
Goodness knows what the Friday the 13th parliamentary Conservative party will look like - let alone how big it will be!
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/1189768663294992384?s=20
https://wonkhe.com/blogs/will-the-student-vote-swing-a-december-election/
One factor the writer forgot to mention is accommodation. Those students living in Oxbridge colleges are I understand on termly accommodation I.e. they have to vacate their rooms for each holiday. For newer universities, e.g. The Royal Agricultural University, their accommodation is likely to be sessional, meaning they only have to vacate it at the end of the summer term.
That may have a bearing in matters, but of course private accommodation is also a factor and that may not even be in the same seat - for example, will students at Keele living off-campus live in Newcastle, Stoke or even Stafford?
I shall move abroad. HYUFD will say good riddance and he will be left with his enclave of little Englanders, telling themselves that they've made Britain, sorry England, great again whilst we slide down the economic rankings and the rest of the world increasingly disregards us.
But I haven't given up all hope. Not quite. Two things remain for me. One is that I think we're going to see a significant Cons to LD swing in remain England.
Second, I do not believe that Labour leave voters will vote tory. End of the day, push comes to shove, they're going to stay loyal. Theresa May discovered this. Johnson will too.
OTOH, the Tories probably won't win, in which case Brexit is highly likely to be cancelled.
That said I would still expect fairly significant SNP gains.
Thus, there probably won't be a Conservative majority: assuming that they win back all the seats of the whipless rebels, and allowing for losses to the SNP and LDs, the Tories may need as few as 20 gains from Labour to scrape a working majority - but I'm still sceptical that they'll be able to do it. Whatever lies they tell the pollsters, most Labour voters would back the party if Satan were leader and the manifesto consisted of boiling their own children to death in cauldrons of hot oil. The 2017 experience tells us that Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister may not exactly be as hard a sell as is widely assumed.
On the Labour point, I'm with you 100%.
I guess the key figure if this is the way it goes would be whether Cons + DUP reaches the threshold. Because if it doesn't, they're stuffed. There's no one else left to help them out and there won't be flakey independents floating around.
Brexit DayHalloween.True, they also absolutely loathe the current Labour leadership, but *NOT* the Labour Party itself, as a point of principle. In a situation where the DUP control the balance of power as per 2017, I can see them voting confidence in Corbyn. Under such circumstances, Labour would be so far short of a majority it would need everybody else's support - meaning that parties like the DUP and Lib Dems could veto all of its most contentious policy ideas at will - leaving the Remain Alliance to do the only things it could actually agree on: either negotiating an ultra-soft Brexit and then holding a deal/remain referendum, or revoking A50 (if the EU finally tires of offering extensions.)
With some EU members getting very impatient with us, and with the big decisions on the next EU budget looming next Spring, I wouldn't be entirely surprised if a further extension is refused. In which case Hung Parliament, Revocation, and another GE next March is not an inconceivable sequence of events.
Brexit DayHalloweenElection-calling Day.Sinn Fein has 7 so that sets the no to 643.
643/2 = 321.5.
So Johnson needs 321 Tories + Flint or 322 if Con Gain Don Valley.
The numbers remain the same if Finucane gains Belfast North due to speaker tie rule.
Adherence to the Tory and Labour whip on this looks to me to be 100% now with the sole exception of Flint.
The have been loads of left leaning luvvies claiming that they would emigrate if the Tories won, but it never happens. Its spineless twaddle.
https://twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/1189796449715990530
https://twitter.com/KieranPAndrews/status/1189795874077073408?s=20
https://news.sky.com/video/brexit-corbyn-slams-boris-he-said-hes-die-in-a-ditch-another-broken-promise-11847848
In the event of a Tory win (which I don't expect, but it is possible) then I'd expect priorities after Brexit to include amending or replacing the FTPA and, more crucially, the completion of boundary reform. I can't remember the exact figures, but redrawing the undersized inner city and Welsh constituencies must be worth at least a couple of dozen seats to the Tories going into any subsequent election. The Conservatives will be friendless in Parliament under such circumstances. There's little they'd be able to get done without maintaining a majority.
Will enjoy listening to the podcast a bit later (can't pay attention to a podcast and write at the same time, alas).
Speaking of which, buy my new and shiny book:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B07YN4DBB9/
In many countries the a majority is insufficient to change rules such as voting age and the right to call an election, a two-thirds majority is the norm.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/general-election-2019-betrayed-leavers-are-threat-to-johnson-qwnffw0zm
Funnily enough, I’m not that keen on spunking borrowed money left, right and centre and I have no idea if the Tories will be offering a path to fiscal sanity either.
No way will they poll in the low 20s on the day.
No chance the WAIB gets through though. But he will be PM
https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1189700040555671554
Votes for BP in any signficant number will come primarily from tory floaters.
Pity really: because the thought of extreme Corbynism being kept down (and therefore sane social democracy enforced) by a DUP/LD/SNP pressure group within a Labour-dominated alliance has a tremendous charm.
One-nation social democracy without a slimy Cameron or Blair-style posho leader? What's not to like?
Gee, tough one...
Con 399
Lab 142
SNP 44
LD 42
PC 4
Grn 1
https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/gb/36/21/18/13/6/3.1/0.3/0.7
That’s the problem, and it is not a problem that is going away.
It’ll be the Labour share that’s decisive. And that will be in spite of Corbyn this time not because of him. I’m still very far from convinced the Tories will gobble up Labour seats with their new big-spending hats on.
The voting patterns up there are reflexive, guttural and visceral.
Excited to be leaving the EU as promised?
https://twitter.com/MarcoGBiagi/status/1189804467945914371?s=19
By the same token the opposition should collectively gain by having 5 parties selling 'Remain' whatever the minor differences
https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/snp-s-ian-blackford-accused-of-disfiguring-last-months-of-charles-kennedy-s-life-1-4776721
I've lived all over the world and have no intention of sitting around whilst Johnson's odious turds wreck this country's social infrastructure.
Ta.
I'll post you a picture once I'm settled.
Also think Ian Blackford has been impressive, regardless of his views.
It comes down to if tories can get 36% and keep labour to their floor of about 30%, boris gets his majority. Otherwise, back for more of the same old same old in parliament.
1. Scotland. A couple of percent GB wide and dozens of seats are gone and not coming back any time soon.
2. Wales. Been trending against Labour for a while especially outside Cardiff. Isn't devolution great?
3. Even on this site we have former tribal Labour loyalists who are now Lib Dems.
I won't count any chickens yet. But it's possible.
Cheerio, Jess.....
However, the Liberal Democrats were third last time and John Hemming isn’t standing again. I’d say it would be a surprise if it changed hands.
I THINK the gamed tactic in No 10 was that he'd be ousted for a temp Corbyn or GNU Gov't after which an election would follow in short order
OR that he would (And I think he always would cede with the EU over Ireland) get a deal, and its clear he always was going to get a deal and then there'd be sufficient pressure at gunpoint to force No Deal vs Deal through on MPs (And Deal should win in that scenario).
If he gets a majority then we will
i) Leave the EU
ii) Extends the internal transitions to get an FTA (This will be where Farage pops up but much of his power will be gone)
iii) Govern fiscally to the left for a Conservative bearing in mind where much of the new support simply must have come from.
Don’t take my word for it. Look at what journalists like Tim Shipman and Isabel Hardman have said about him. Not a scratch on Angus Robertson.
*saved*