Labour are never going to poll as low as 21%...brown hit those kind of poll numbers, but come the election the tribal vote always comes out.
It comes down to if tories can get 36% and keep labour to their floor of about 30%, boris gets his majority. Otherwise, back for more of the same old same old in parliament.
Where do Labour get that extra 9% from? 2% Greens, 2% LibDems, 5% Brexit?
Labour are never going to poll as low as 21%...brown hit those kind of poll numbers, but come the election the tribal vote always comes out.
It comes down to if tories can get 36% and keep labour to their floor of about 30%, boris gets his majority. Otherwise, back for more of the same old same old in parliament.
Where do Labour get that extra 9% from? 2% Greens, 2% LibDems, 5% Brexit?
You think Labour are going to poll what %?
We are trying to be generous and get them to 30%......
Gosh, this feels a lot like 2017. When we were all talking about 170+ Tory majorities.
I don't think Labour will win. They will lose too many votes to the Lib Dems. But equally so this kind of collapse just doesn't seem plausible. There are too many constituencies where hatstands with red rosettes get elected time after time after time.
Given that without a majority he in very short order has attempted to suspend democracy and impose a chaotic no deal Brexit, I’m not inclined to see what he wants to do unshackled.
I sincerely believe the prorogation essentially was a move designed to force his opponents hand.
I THINK the gamed tactic in No 10 was that he'd be ousted for a temp Corbyn or GNU Gov't after which an election would follow in short order OR that he would (And I think he always would cede with the EU over Ireland) get a deal, and its clear he always was going to get a deal and then there'd be sufficient pressure at gunpoint to force No Deal vs Deal through on MPs (And Deal should win in that scenario).
I'm really not interested what the gamed tactic was. He attempted to suspend democracy for his own political ends. He should not be given the benefit of the doubt.
Diane Abbott calls on Keith Vaz to quit (But) Pressed on the fact the Labour whip has not been withdrawn from him, Ms Abbott replies: "Not yet. But I think that Keith should consider his position."
Given that without a majority he in very short order has attempted to suspend democracy and impose a chaotic no deal Brexit, I’m not inclined to see what he wants to do unshackled.
I sincerely believe the prorogation essentially was a move designed to force his opponents hand.
I THINK the gamed tactic in No 10 was that he'd be ousted for a temp Corbyn or GNU Gov't after which an election would follow in short order OR that he would (And I think he always would cede with the EU over Ireland) get a deal, and its clear he always was going to get a deal and then there'd be sufficient pressure at gunpoint to force No Deal vs Deal through on MPs (And Deal should win in that scenario).
If he gets a majority then we will
i) Leave the EU
ii) Extends the internal transitions to get an FTA (This will be where Farage pops up but much of his power will be gone)
iii) Govern fiscally to the left for a Conservative bearing in mind where much of the new support simply must have come from.
I think that is right about the original plan, and the paradoxical situation of Boris wanting a short-lived Corbyn government to extend A50 and immediately call an election.
Jezza is calling for a head to head one with boris. Given mays no show last time, i dont think boris can say no.
I really hope they sort this shit show out for future general elections. There should be set rules way ahead of time, rather than now there will be weeks of horse trading between the parties and the media.
Gosh, this feels a lot like 2017. When we were all talking about 170+ Tory majorities.
I don't think Labour will win. They will lose too many votes to the Lib Dems. But equally so this kind of collapse just doesn't seem plausible. There are too many constituencies where hatstands with red rosettes get elected time after time after time.
Ironic given a labour/SNP coalition is the most likely outcome to me. Not at the moment but given the traction and given what a good campaigner Corbyn is. Totally unsuitable to be PM and some awful policies but he will win, I am convinced.
This election will see a lot of dubious and even cynical advice and misdirection on tactical voting, much of it below the radar in the social media equivalent of the old LibDem leaflets.
This election will see a lot of dubious and even cynical advice and misdirection on tactical voting, much of it below the radar in the social media equivalent of the old LibDem leaflets.
Fundamentally, it is difficult to know who to vote for if you're anti-tory.
Looking at 2017 results is not fair to the lib dems who are polling much better now. Looking at euro results is silly.
It does seem very strange not to back a Labour incumbent though.
On iii) Note "Schools, hospitals, police" has replaced "Bringing down the deficit"
I can’t think of a worse thing to spunk money on than 20,000 extra police.
Replacement, not extra. We had those extra 20k police, sacked / didn't replace them, have had massive surges in crime and ASB, and are now supposed to be grateful that they're being put back. Local to me Tories are trying this line and it is playing particularly badly.
Very early days for a very odd election - lets see how it plays out. Tories can't play any of their usual "profligate tax and spend Labour" lines when Tories plan to spaff money up the wall on everything they've cut previously. With both leaders desperately unpopular in the polls, both parties divided and offering fantasy island Brexit policies, both promising the moon on a stick and don't worry about the money we really cannot predict how this one is going to play out.
Survation polled "fear of the other". Is that mostly all thats left? Labour voters fear the Tory who usually slashes spending despite this time them not doing. Tory voters fear Labour who promise absurd profligate spending just like their own candidate. Even the boundaries of why the one fears the other have blurred. As this becomes clearer, all kinds of campaign twists and swings are possible, from Tory landslide to Labour majority to more hung than now to surge of the other parties to a CWU Strike / Met Office Blizzard crippling the poll and Anna Soubry's TIGFC sweeping to victory...
But if that sense of betrayal is aimed at those opposition parties who blocked Brexit..... We had the Boris Deal after all. They voted for it - then played silly buggers....
The "Boris Deal" as you call it means selling us out to the Americans. I much prefer the EU. Your Boris has betrayed the country.
So we've got six weeks of everyone jumping round as soon as a poll comes out or someone posts a poll on Twitter or a fake poll appears (there'll be plenty of those) and even worse when someone trails a poll with "Dramatic News In Our Poll Tonight" nonsense.
If i was the tories i would be somewhat concerned with only an 8% lead.
Why?? Survation is one of the worst pollsters for the Tories (IIRC), we have just come through the broken do-or-die pledge, and the Tories maintain their lead?
This is pleasing for Boris, if I read it right.
But if the Tories have already squeezed all their potential support while
Contrary to popular opinion Farage and the Brexit Party are likely to benefit Johnson's Tories rather than damage them. Adding weight to the Leave argument during the election campaign will inevitably help the market leader which is Johnson's Tories.
Actually, that’s something on which you might be right. Being, as it is, based on advertising dynamics of which you have extensive experience.
It’ll be the Labour share that’s decisive. And that will be in spite of Corbyn this time not because of him. I’m still very far from convinced the Tories will gobble up Labour seats with their new big-spending hats on.
The voting patterns up there are reflexive, guttural and visceral.
Agreed. A country with the Brexity Party standing in every seat is a different on to one where they only dare show their faces in a few constituencies.
This election will see a lot of dubious and even cynical advice and misdirection on tactical voting, much of it below the radar in the social media equivalent of the old LibDem leaflets.
Fundamentally, it is difficult to know who to vote for if you're anti-tory.
Looking at 2017 results is not fair to the lib dems who are polling much better now. Looking at euro results is silly.
It does seem very strange not to back a Labour incumbent though.
So we've got six weeks of everyone jumping round as soon as a poll comes out or someone posts a poll on Twitter or a fake poll appears (there'll be plenty of those) and even worse when someone trails a poll with "Dramatic News In Our Poll Tonight" nonsense.
Soldiers at Marble Arch station selling poppies and shouting ‘have you got your poppy yet sir?’ to passers by.
The slow but inexorable drift towards militarism over my lifetime continues.
I dislike this sort of thing. Let people make their own decisions without hectoring them.
I love this time of year when people pretend that the tyranny of the poppy sellers is oppressing them or that we are headed to a militaristic society. Its genuinely very funny.
Emmanuel Goldstein will be feeling pretty small after 6 weeks of anti "elitism" from Corbyn.
I am hoping the choice of going for 6 weeks negativity is a catastrophic error by Labour.
Labour message is so negative and depressing against Boris confident optimistic can do attitude
This election will depend on Boris capturing and winning the votes on the success of his positive campaign
He had a cheerful, breezy can-do attitude to leaving today. What happened.? There' s nothing behind it, it's all bluster and warm words. People might fall for it but I bet they are going to be severely disappointed by the reality.
Personally I don't see much to be positive about, we are in a total mess and if I were 20 years younger I'd be out of her.
So we've got six weeks of everyone jumping round as soon as a poll comes out or someone posts a poll on Twitter or a fake poll appears (there'll be plenty of those) and even worse when someone trails a poll with "Dramatic News In Our Poll Tonight" nonsense.
Emmanuel Goldstein will be feeling pretty small after 6 weeks of anti "elitism" from Corbyn.
I am hoping the choice of going for 6 weeks negativity is a catastrophic error by Labour.
Labour message is so negative and depressing against Boris confident optimistic can do attitude
This election will depend on Boris capturing and winning the votes on the success of his positive campaign
He had a cheerful, breezy can-do attitude to leaving today. What happened.? There' s nothing behind it, it's all bluster and warm words. People might fall for it but I bet they are going to be severely disappointed by the reality.
Personally I don't see much to be positive about, we are in a total mess and if I were 20 years younger I'd be out of her.
History is full of tyrants with breezy, can-do attitudes merrily divorced from reality.
Emmanuel Goldstein will be feeling pretty small after 6 weeks of anti "elitism" from Corbyn.
I am hoping the choice of going for 6 weeks negativity is a catastrophic error by Labour.
Labour message is so negative and depressing against Boris confident optimistic can do attitude
This election will depend on Boris capturing and winning the votes on the success of his positive campaign
He had a cheerful, breezy can-do attitude to leaving today. What happened.? There' s nothing behind it, it's all bluster and warm words. People might fall for it but I bet they are going to be severely disappointed by the reality.
Personally I don't see much to be positive about, we are in a total mess and if I were 20 years younger I'd be out of her.
@Dura_Ace It's the first year since I was 5 years old I'm not buying one. Regretably it really has changed as a social phenomenon in the last 10 years and I'm just not accepting the new framing.
There does appear to be a stunning level of optimism that people will look straight past the BJ bullshit - do or die, dead in a ditch, prepare for no deal and here's NHS cash Mr advertising agency - and go you, he's a man who will die in a ditch to get Brexit done, do or die.
I know that we know a lot of voters are stupid, they've swallowed all manner of guano over Brexit. But the Tory campaign is basically repeat all the stuff that Johnson has failed to do and say you can trust him to deliver them.
Soldiers at Marble Arch station selling poppies and shouting ‘have you got your poppy yet sir?’ to passers by.
The slow but inexorable drift towards militarism over my lifetime continues.
I dislike this sort of thing. Let people make their own decisions without hectoring them.
I love this time of year when people pretend that the tyranny of the poppy sellers is oppressing them or that we are headed to a militaristic society. Its genuinely very funny.
My son’s school has had its “lest we forget” montage up all year, relinquishing the need for the two month hiatus over the summer when we are not poppy bothering.
There is certainly no chance of anyone forgetting a century old war given the wall to wall fetishisation of it, crowding out mourning for more modern wars, where the losses of friends and family are still recent enough to be raw.
Soldiers at Marble Arch station selling poppies and shouting ‘have you got your poppy yet sir?’ to passers by.
The slow but inexorable drift towards militarism over my lifetime continues.
I dislike this sort of thing. Let people make their own decisions without hectoring them.
Quite right and well said. I used to wear a poppy every year. Now, I don’t. The insistence that one has to wear one has put me off. It can only be a few days before a TV presenter gets hauled over the coals for failing their duty.
There does appear to be a stunning level of optimism that people will look straight past the BJ bullshit - do or die, dead in a ditch, prepare for no deal and here's NHS cash Mr advertising agency - and go you, he's a man who will die in a ditch to get Brexit done, do or die.
I know that we know a lot of voters are stupid, they've swallowed all manner of guano over Brexit. But the Tory campaign is basically repeat all the stuff that Johnson has failed to do and say you can trust him to deliver them.
Really?
44% of voters blame Parliament for the fact we are still in the EU, only 32% blame Boris according to the new Survation poll
There does appear to be a stunning level of optimism that people will look straight past the BJ bullshit - do or die, dead in a ditch, prepare for no deal and here's NHS cash Mr advertising agency - and go you, he's a man who will die in a ditch to get Brexit done, do or die.
I know that we know a lot of voters are stupid, they've swallowed all manner of guano over Brexit. But the Tory campaign is basically repeat all the stuff that Johnson has failed to do and say you can trust him to deliver them.
Really?
44% of voters blame Parliament for the fact we are still in the EU, only 32% blame Boris according to the new Survation poll
There does appear to be a stunning level of optimism that people will look straight past the BJ bullshit - do or die, dead in a ditch, prepare for no deal and here's NHS cash Mr advertising agency - and go you, he's a man who will die in a ditch to get Brexit done, do or die.
I know that we know a lot of voters are stupid, they've swallowed all manner of guano over Brexit. But the Tory campaign is basically repeat all the stuff that Johnson has failed to do and say you can trust him to deliver them.
Really?
44% of voters blame Parliament for the fact we are still in the EU, only 32% blame Boris according to the new Survation poll
Reports this morning about the Twitter ban on political adverts will hurt the Trump campaign. Does anyone know the impact it will have over here - i.e. will it hamper the Tories more than Labour or vice versa?
Soldiers at Marble Arch station selling poppies and shouting ‘have you got your poppy yet sir?’ to passers by.
The slow but inexorable drift towards militarism over my lifetime continues.
I dislike this sort of thing. Let people make their own decisions without hectoring them.
Quite right and well said. I used to wear a poppy every year. Now, I don’t. The insistence that one has to wear one has put me off. It can only be a few days before a TV presenter gets hauled over the coals for failing their duty.
TV presenters already are if they dont.
It doesnt make this annual parade of woe is me society is going to hell because if the poppies stuff any less an overreaction and an amusing one at that. Tell you what, I wont wear one and I'll let you know how oppressed I get.
There does appear to be a stunning level of optimism that people will look straight past the BJ bullshit - do or die, dead in a ditch, prepare for no deal and here's NHS cash Mr advertising agency - and go you, he's a man who will die in a ditch to get Brexit done, do or die.
I know that we know a lot of voters are stupid, they've swallowed all manner of guano over Brexit. But the Tory campaign is basically repeat all the stuff that Johnson has failed to do and say you can trust him to deliver them.
Really?
44% of voters blame Parliament for the fact we are still in the EU, only 32% blame Boris according to the new Survation poll
Soldiers at Marble Arch station selling poppies and shouting ‘have you got your poppy yet sir?’ to passers by.
The slow but inexorable drift towards militarism over my lifetime continues.
I dislike this sort of thing. Let people make their own decisions without hectoring them.
Quite right and well said. I used to wear a poppy every year. Now, I don’t. The insistence that one has to wear one has put me off. It can only be a few days before a TV presenter gets hauled over the coals for failing their duty.
TV presenters already are if they dont.
It doesnt make this annual parade of woe is me society is going to help because if the poppies stuff any less an overreaction and an amusing one at that.
I wear one for 11 days every year from 1st to 11th November, and have done so for decades.
Dura_Ace said: "I am trying to recall when this fucking pointless shit became so pervasive. I think it was after Iraq II.
I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one."
Thank you Dura Ace. About time someone talked some sense over this. I refuse to wear one too. What on earth must visitors to the UK think of our obsession with this militaristic shit.
Comments
Labour at 21% is terrible but it is only one poll
I can only presume the £50bn plus we spend every year on interest payments is the same or increased.
I am hoping the choice of going for 6 weeks negativity is a catastrophic error by Labour.
I don't think Labour will win. They will lose too many votes to the Lib Dems. But equally so this kind of collapse just doesn't seem plausible. There are too many constituencies where hatstands with red rosettes get elected time after time after time.
This election will depend on Boris capturing and winning the votes on the success of his positive campaign
Fracking is yesterday's news
We had the Boris Deal after all. They voted for it - then played silly buggers....
Where is it.
YG don't have that as their latest poll on @YouGov
(But) Pressed on the fact the Labour whip has not been withdrawn from him, Ms Abbott replies: "Not yet. But I think that Keith should consider his position."
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/general-election-2019-betrayed-leavers-are-threat-to-johnson-qwnffw0zm
I really hope they sort this shit show out for future general elections. There should be set rules way ahead of time, rather than now there will be weeks of horse trading between the parties and the media.
He said a bunch of stuff. None of it happened.
The slow but inexorable drift towards militarism over my lifetime continues.
He got a Deal.
He's got his election.
Boris Johnson: Man of His Word....
I mean he said we’d Leave today. Do or die.
Just like May...
That's what YG says but TSE says it's a new one so I take his word for it
BoZo gets the job done. Except when Jezza wouldn't let him...
Great campaign message
If Boris gets a majority, it might not be until the last few results are called.....or it could be clear by Sunderland.
Looking at 2017 results is not fair to the lib dems who are polling much better now. Looking at euro results is silly.
It does seem very strange not to back a Labour incumbent though.
Very early days for a very odd election - lets see how it plays out. Tories can't play any of their usual "profligate tax and spend Labour" lines when Tories plan to spaff money up the wall on everything they've cut previously. With both leaders desperately unpopular in the polls, both parties divided and offering fantasy island Brexit policies, both promising the moon on a stick and don't worry about the money we really cannot predict how this one is going to play out.
Survation polled "fear of the other". Is that mostly all thats left? Labour voters fear the Tory who usually slashes spending despite this time them not doing. Tory voters fear Labour who promise absurd profligate spending just like their own candidate. Even the boundaries of why the one fears the other have blurred. As this becomes clearer, all kinds of campaign twists and swings are possible, from Tory landslide to Labour majority to more hung than now to surge of the other parties to a CWU Strike / Met Office Blizzard crippling the poll and Anna Soubry's TIGFC sweeping to victory...
The one the voters will tell MPs to implement. That one.
https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1189809912827797504
Totally unnecessary
One has to conclude that satire is dead, on the day he hyped everyone up to leave the EU, come what may, do or die.
Boris is the Picasso of bullshit artists.
I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one.
He got EU approval for a deal that May rejected because it threatens the UK. That's not an achievement.
So we've got six weeks of everyone jumping round as soon as a poll comes out or someone posts a poll on Twitter or a fake poll appears (there'll be plenty of those) and even worse when someone trails a poll with "Dramatic News In Our Poll Tonight" nonsense.
I've no doubt at all that the Greens will poll well under 5%.
Trust flavable!
https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/gb/36/21/18/13/6/3.1/0.3/0.7
Personally I don't see much to be positive about, we are in a total mess and if I were 20 years younger I'd be out of her.
It never ends well.
That sounds a lot bluer than I meant it to.
I know that we know a lot of voters are stupid, they've swallowed all manner of guano over Brexit. But the Tory campaign is basically repeat all the stuff that Johnson has failed to do and say you can trust him to deliver them.
Really?
There is certainly no chance of anyone forgetting a century old war given the wall to wall fetishisation of it, crowding out mourning for more modern wars, where the losses of friends and family are still recent enough to be raw.
makes the whole thing almost worthwhile.
God, November is a depressing month. Starts with a popular state-mandated celebration of an act of torture, and goes downhill from there.
So if they’re not standing in your seat how would you then vote.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7632443/Boris-Johnson-trusted-Jeremy-Corbyn-new-poll-voters-reveals.html
It doesnt make this annual parade of woe is me society is going to hell because if the poppies stuff any less an overreaction and an amusing one at that. Tell you what, I wont wear one and I'll let you know how oppressed I get.
I fail to see what all the fuss is about.
I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one."
Thank you Dura Ace. About time someone talked some sense over this. I refuse to wear one too. What on earth must visitors to the UK think of our obsession with this militaristic shit.