Motivation to vote on a dark and wet December day will be generated by anger, fear and hate. An unedifying prospect.
I'm sure the differential turnout modellers will be having the heebie jeebies at the prospect of a December election.
Pollster "Oi, spod! Build a model based on factors that haven't worked in the past, combined with circumstances that haven't happened for nearly a century! Chop chop!" Modeller "Dear CityJobs.com, please find attached my CV..."
The interesting thing about the next election is that the Tories are going to be relying on the votes of people who are not traditional Tory voters and who are not regular voters at all. Getting them to turn out on a cold, dark December night in constituencies where the local party is not necessarily that strong is going to be a challenge. If Labour has another leader it may not be one they’d meet.
Tories are going to be relying on blow-in Labour voters in places like Warwick and Leamington switching to LibDem because they'd like to Remain. There were nearly 8000 additional Labour voters in 2017. How loyal are they likely to be? Not very, in my opinion.
I'm all for a lack of loyalty for all political parties.
It would be delightful to rid politics of the tribal element, and parties of 75% of their power.
But why should poor people who rely on benefits, and public services vote for a Neo-liberal, capitalist charlatan wanker who wants to turn the UK into a capitalist, Trump outpost of the US?
I get why rich bankers vote Tory....I bet not many of these are going to jump ship....
Boris's schtick is to fool the poor he is on their side....get Brexit done....
You might ask the same question about the blue collar workers of America.
You cannot really make up the Lib Dems......barely 10 years after their useless Cabal couldn't wait to get into their ministerial limos.....now you have the rampant opportunism of Swinson's Yellow Peril pitching to double their seats at the price of a hard right Brexit....
Maybe the party never had any integrity...but fuck me...this lot are a fucking opportunistic shower of shits.....
TBF having this election once the extension was secured was literally Labour policy until like last week...
And before that and for TWO WHOLE YEARS they demanded an election every day on our TVs, radios and in our newspapers. Do you think anyone noticed?
The interesting thing about the next election is that the Tories are going to be relying on the votes of people who are not traditional Tory voters and who are not regular voters at all. Getting them to turn out on a cold, dark December night in constituencies where the local party is not necessarily that strong is going to be a challenge. If Labour has another leader it may not be one they’d meet.
Tories are going to be relying on blow-in Labour voters in places like Warwick and Leamington switching to LibDem because they'd like to Remain. There were nearly 8000 additional Labour voters in 2017. How loyal are they likely to be? Not very, in my opinion.
I'm all for a lack of loyalty for all political parties.
It would be delightful to rid politics of the tribal element, and parties of 75% of their power.
But why should poor people who rely on benefits, and public services vote for a Neo-liberal, capitalist charlatan wanker who wants to turn the UK into a capitalist, Trump outpost of the US?
I get why rich bankers vote Tory....I bet not many of these are going to jump ship....
Boris's schtick is to fool the poor he is on their side....get Brexit done....
You might ask the same question about the blue collar workers of America.
No-one is going to vote for Bozo for religion and guns.
On other matters, I do not believe Keith Vaz should be allowed to remain in Parliament. He should be recalled.
The recall process falls, if there’s a GE
He should have resigned before now. How can you have that sort of judgement passed on you and not have the decency to resign?
It’s worse than that though - he’s despicably trying to say he has a mental illness - rightly described as ludicrous.
Vaz is just scum.
Indeed - he has so much in common with Johnson.
Johnson is scum to you because he has championed Brexit, got it through the referendum and when the Houe of Common is rid of the Remainer blockers, will deliver it.
Vaz is scum because the House of Commons has investigated him and proven him to be.
Johnson is scum because he is an entitled, immoral, philandering, lying, narcissistic, piece of shit who has fucked over pretty much anyone who has come close to him....
Nothing to do with Brexit.....Vaz got found out- but he compares personally to many of those characteristics....
I have just read on the guardian website that No Deal planning has cost £2 billion! That is a hell of a waste of cash. It works out at. approxiamtly £30 per person. That £2 billion could of bought a dozen or more F35 fighters for one of the aircraft carriers or paid for accomadation for the homeless or food for families who cannot make ends meet. Brexit needs to be stopped before more borrowed money is funnelled toward an option rather than an necessity....
Or about six weeks of EU membership fees....
If the economy is smaller, then you dont really gain anything. Yellow Hammer, which BJ activated for No Deal would see the economy shrink by 10%! That would result in a huge amount of government borrowing, not to mention fundamental shifts in the economy i.e. car manufacturer's collapsing and consumers having to buy non UK produced vehicles. The argument that you save money by leaving and not paying EU fees has been demolished.
Looks like the penny is dropping with Brexiters. A General Election on the terms Boris appears to be conceeding makes Brexit utterly contingent. An election creates a second chronologically superior mandate to the 3.5 year old advisory referendum. And one for an omnicompetent and soveriegn parliament. Maybe it will deliver a majority for Brexit. But maybe it won't. And every opposition party currently in the Commons ( and the DUP ) will come back with a fresh mandate and hardened opposition to Boris' deal. I wonder what the ex Spartans who bought in to Boris' deal and threw the DUP under a bus feel now ? That they haven't push Brexit over the line but instead taken a massive gamble on Brexit itself ?
They blame it on parliament blocking it of course.
Now the reason some MPs might not want an election is because they've done sod all for their constituents since 2017 and now realise they got to explain their record.
I have just read on the guardian website that No Deal planning has cost £2 billion! That is a hell of a waste of cash. It works out at. approxiamtly £30 per person. That £2 billion could of bought a dozen or more F35 fighters for one of the aircraft carriers or paid for accomadation for the homeless or food for families who cannot make ends meet. Brexit needs to be stopped before more borrowed money is funnelled toward an option rather than an necessity....
Looks like the penny is dropping with Brexiters. A General Election on the terms Boris appears to be conceeding makes Brexit utterly contingent. An election creates a second chronologically superior mandate to the 3.5 year old advisory referendum. And one for an omnicompetent and soveriegn parliament. Maybe it will deliver a majority for Brexit. But maybe it won't. And every opposition party currently in the Commons ( and the DUP ) will come back with a fresh mandate and hardened opposition to Boris' deal. I wonder what the ex Spartans who bought in to Boris' deal and threw the DUP under a bus feel now ? That they haven't push Brexit over the line but instead taken a massive gamble on Brexit itself ?
Given that Brexit was dependent upon the likes of Lisa Nandy voting for it perhaps they would prefer to take a chance with a GE.
The interesting thing about the next election is that the Tories are going to be relying on the votes of people who are not traditional Tory voters and who are not regular voters at all. Getting them to turn out on a cold, dark December night in constituencies where the local party is not necessarily that strong is going to be a challenge. If Labour has another leader it may not be one they’d meet.
Tories are going to be relying on blow-in Labour voters in places like Warwick and Leamington switching to LibDem because they'd like to Remain. There were nearly 8000 additional Labour voters in 2017. How loyal are they likely to be? Not very, in my opinion.
I'm all for a lack of loyalty for all political parties.
It would be delightful to rid politics of the tribal element, and parties of 75% of their power.
But why should poor people who rely on benefits, and public services vote for a Neo-liberal, capitalist charlatan wanker who wants to turn the UK into a capitalist, Trump outpost of the US?
I get why rich bankers vote Tory....I bet not many of these are going to jump ship....
Boris's schtick is to fool the poor he is on their side....get Brexit done....
Boris is increasing NHS spending, increasing the minimum wage, increasing police spending and delivering the Brexit they voted for that is why
If the economy is smaller, then you dont really gain anything. Yellow Hammer, which BJ activated for No Deal would see the economy shrink by 10%!
Then perhaps MPs should stop blocking the deal repeatedly.
You dont agree to something in politics due to duress. Brexit is a worse deal than staying or implementing the TM or BJ deal. If MPs collectively reject a deal the reason they decide to do this is because it is shit!
I have said repeatedly in recent months that a GE is our system's safety valve.
It is time to go back to the people.
But, boy, Johnson is taking an enormous gamble.
He is
If he loses to Corbyn he will go down in history as the worst Tory leader of them all.
On current polling Corbyn is more likely to go down as the worst Labour leader of them all, Labour is currently polling even worse than 1983 under Foot
Labour polled 22% in the 2010 GE, they then achieved a week or two later 29%.
Your predications are lol! I would be embarrased if i was disprovern as regulary as you have been lately.
I predicted Boris would do a Deal dumping the DUP, I predicted Justin Trudeau would be re elected and I am entirely happy with my prediction Boris will be re elected to get Brexit done
His constituents are fed up with this Parliament which has refused time after time to deliver Brexit and will not vote for the Boris Deal as stands either, which is precisely why Boris needs a majority to deliver Brexit
Looks like the penny is dropping with Brexiters. A General Election on the terms Boris appears to be conceeding makes Brexit utterly contingent. An election creates a second chronologically superior mandate to the 3.5 year old advisory referendum. And one for an omnicompetent and soveriegn parliament. Maybe it will deliver a majority for Brexit. But maybe it won't. And every opposition party currently in the Commons ( and the DUP ) will come back with a fresh mandate and hardened opposition to Boris' deal. I wonder what the ex Spartans who bought in to Boris' deal and threw the DUP under a bus feel now ? That they haven't push Brexit over the line but instead taken a massive gamble on Brexit itself ?
Given that Brexit was dependent upon the likes of Lisa Nandy voting for it perhaps they would prefer to take a chance with a GE.
But, if Lisa Nandy gets re-elected on a manifesto committed to a second referendum, then she will (justifiably) feel even less need to back a Brexit deal than she does now.
(Some of the other 'Brexit-curious' Labour MPs, like Ruth Smeeth and Melanie Onn, will probably lose their seats even if Labour manage to somehow limit their net losses to 10-20.)
I have said repeatedly in recent months that a GE is our system's safety valve.
It is time to go back to the people.
But, boy, Johnson is taking an enormous gamble.
He is
If he loses to Corbyn he will go down in history as the worst Tory leader of them all.
On current polling Corbyn is more likely to go down as the worst Labour leader of them all, Labour is currently polling even worse than 1983 under Foot
Labour polled 22% in the 2010 GE, they then achieved a week or two later 29%.
Your predications are lol! I would be embarrased if i was disprovern as regulary as you have been lately.
I predicted Boris would do a Deal dumping the DUP, I predicted Justin Trudeau would be re elected and I am entirely happy with my prediction Boris will be re elected to get Brexit done
Yes, and you were spot on that Boris would have resigned by now.
Now who is calling for out of SM but in the CU exactly? Besides Remainers trying to foist nonsense on us, can you name anyone who actually thinks this is better than either Remaining or Leaving properly?
I didn’t mean “your” in literally just you.
We wouldn’t be in the (definite article) CU but we would negotiate a CU with the EU. Turkey has one. It’s an important difference and it is leaving properly as we will no longer be signatories to the EU treaties. Also keeps Unionists and Nationalists in NI happy in a way an FTA wouldn’t. Have you tried exporting anything to Canada? Hardly frictionless.
So far as I can tell this is Labour’s policy but TBF who can be sure these days.
Labour's policy as far as I can tell is they don't want to leave but that is the bullshit they're putting up as the alternative.
Can you name any prominent Brexiteers who are promoting a CU as being the Brexit they want. Why would you put up a form of Brexit nobody wants, not even the people proposing it?
The negotiation part of labour’s policy is the easiest part, first day can we have UK wide CU please? Workers rights, environmental and consumer rights all in the WA. You think there will be wrangling more than one day? No Irish border issue at all. The second part begins the second day, confirmatory ref that type of brexit v remain at first convenient date.
I say where you have some defending the issues around Boris deal, others defending the extreme position of revoking even without a second ref, Labour’s more measured approach will appear different on the oxygen of a GE campaign, because it won’t appear like ramming a divisive brexit policy through based on that general election win,
If you step outside of a bubble where you want it to be a disaster of a policy and look at it objectively, is it really going to be so complicated to sell and defend that it’s a disaster of a GE position?
Question - what part of continuation of free trade costing free movement, continued alignment of regulations and jurisdiction of EU law is leaving? It’s not a policy for leaving it’s a policy for remaining as why would we not want representation?
You cannot really make up the Lib Dems......barely 10 years after their useless Cabal couldn't wait to get into their ministerial limos.....now you have the rampant opportunism of Swinson's Yellow Peril pitching to double their seats at the price of a hard right Brexit....
Maybe the party never had any integrity...but fuck me...this lot are a fucking opportunistic shower of shits.....
Maybe. But at least we didn’t vote to invade Iraq. Unlike some parties.
The problem with Iraq from the Yellow Peril viewpoint is that they had nothing to gain by voting for it...but plenty to gain from voting against....
But this latest wheeze makes it seem like...perhaps if a coalition ministerial seat was on offer, or possibly a few extra constituencies, the LD's would quite happily gouge out the eyes of their own grandmother with a well rusted spoon....
From opposing tuition fees, to jumping in a coalition, from opposing Iraq to supporting bombing Assad...and now this latest opportunistic ploy...as said a bunch of useless twats who'll gain about 20 seats but at the next election (after) will be quite rightly obliterated for being nothing to anyone.....
Maybe. But at least we didn’t lead the country into an illegal war of aggression that killed between 100,000 and 200,000 Iraqis. Just saying’
Yet again, those who want Brexit have chosen to block it.
Because you want a customs union
Yes, which is one form of Brexit. What’s your point?
We may as well stay. We have to accept and pay in without any say
Oh I agree Remain is the superior choice, but you and I have thought that since before the referendum. However, outside the EU but inside the CU is nevertheless a form of Brexit, that’s undeniable.
I have said repeatedly in recent months that a GE is our system's safety valve.
It is time to go back to the people.
But, boy, Johnson is taking an enormous gamble.
He is
If he loses to Corbyn he will go down in history as the worst Tory leader of them all.
On current polling Corbyn is more likely to go down as the worst Labour leader of them all, Labour is currently polling even worse than 1983 under Foot
Labour polled 22% in the 2010 GE, they then achieved a week or two later 29%.
Your predications are lol! I would be embarrased if i was disprovern as regulary as you have been lately.
I predicted Boris would do a Deal dumping the DUP, I predicted Justin Trudeau would be re elected and I am entirely happy with my prediction Boris will be re elected to get Brexit done
I have said repeatedly in recent months that a GE is our system's safety valve.
It is time to go back to the people.
But, boy, Johnson is taking an enormous gamble.
He is
If he loses to Corbyn he will go down in history as the worst Tory leader of them all.
On current polling Corbyn is more likely to go down as the worst Labour leader of them all, Labour is currently polling even worse than 1983 under Foot
Labour polled 22% in the 2010 GE, they then achieved a week or two later 29%.
Your predications are lol! I would be embarrased if i was disprovern as regulary as you have been lately.
I predicted Boris would do a Deal dumping the DUP, I predicted Justin Trudeau would be re elected and I am entirely happy with my prediction Boris will be re elected to get Brexit done
You also predicted
Macron blocking an extension?
Resigning if not out by 31/10?
Won't ask for an extension?
And an earlier veto by Macron. And a NI referendum. And a GE before October 31. Etc. That’s all before we get to sending troops into Scotland.
We can see Boris has 299 as a basis (formed of Tories, indies who want the whip back and Woodcock and co). All of them will vote with him as their jobs rely on it.
There seems to be an emerging question mark over the SNP and maybe the LibDems, but overall an election hits their objectives. The LibDems get more MPs and the SNP get a mandate for a referendum.
Finally, Labour might now figure they may as well go for it.
Basically, I think an election now gets called tomorrow.
Confession - it may be in the interest of my wallet that everyone thinks it’s a racing certainty......
Looks like the penny is dropping with Brexiters. A General Election on the terms Boris appears to be conceeding makes Brexit utterly contingent. An election creates a second chronologically superior mandate to the 3.5 year old advisory referendum. And one for an omnicompetent and soveriegn parliament. Maybe it will deliver a majority for Brexit. But maybe it won't. And every opposition party currently in the Commons ( and the DUP ) will come back with a fresh mandate and hardened opposition to Boris' deal. I wonder what the ex Spartans who bought in to Boris' deal and threw the DUP under a bus feel now ? That they haven't push Brexit over the line but instead taken a massive gamble on Brexit itself ?
Given that Brexit was dependent upon the likes of Lisa Nandy voting for it perhaps they would prefer to take a chance with a GE.
But, if Lisa Nandy gets re-elected on a manifesto committed to a second referendum, then she will (justifiably) feel even less need to back a Brexit deal than she does now.
(Some of the other 'Brexit-curious' Labour MPs, like Ruth Smeeth and Melanie Onn, will probably lose their seats even if Labour manage to somehow limit their net losses to 10-20.)
If there is a Conservative majority after a GE then there will be no need of Labour support.
Its a multi-level game - the chance of Brexit being achieved now vs the chance of a Conservative majority at a December GE and the chance of a Conservative majority in a December GE vs the chance of a Conservative majority at a GE held in 2020.
Lots of variables are involved and I don't know the sizes and likelihoods.
I wonder if Boris would almost rather lose the election than battle on impotently in this hung parliament? I mean what is the point of being PM if you can't actually do anything?
I have said repeatedly in recent months that a GE is our system's safety valve.
It is time to go back to the people.
But, boy, Johnson is taking an enormous gamble.
He is
If he loses to Corbyn he will go down in history as the worst Tory leader of them all.
On current polling Corbyn is more likely to go down as the worst Labour leader of them all, Labour is currently polling even worse than 1983 under Foot
Labour polled 22% in the 2010 GE, they then achieved a week or two later 29%.
Your predications are lol! I would be embarrased if i was disprovern as regulary as you have been lately.
I predicted Boris would do a Deal dumping the DUP, I predicted Justin Trudeau would be re elected and I am entirely happy with my prediction Boris will be re elected to get Brexit done
You also predicted
Macron blocking an extension?
Resigning if not out by 31/10?
Won't ask for an extension?
Boris did not ask for an extension, Parliament did, he made clear he opposed it, so no need to resign.
Provided MPs vote for a general election this week then that would meet the Macron criteria not to extend unless there was a general election or EUref2
I have said repeatedly in recent months that a GE is our system's safety valve.
It is time to go back to the people.
But, boy, Johnson is taking an enormous gamble.
He is
If he loses to Corbyn he will go down in history as the worst Tory leader of them all.
On current polling Corbyn is more likely to go down as the worst Labour leader of them all, Labour is currently polling even worse than 1983 under Foot
Labour polled 22% in the 2010 GE, they then achieved a week or two later 29%.
Your predications are lol! I would be embarrased if i was disprovern as regulary as you have been lately.
I predicted Boris would do a Deal dumping the DUP, I predicted Justin Trudeau would be re elected and I am entirely happy with my prediction Boris will be re elected to get Brexit done
You also predicted
Macron blocking an extension?
Resigning if not out by 31/10?
Won't ask for an extension?
Boris did not ask for an extension, Parliament did, he made clear he opposed it, so no need to resign.
Provided MPs vote for a general election this week then that would meet the Macron criteria not to extend unless there was a general election or EUref2
The SNP want to amend the bill to add V@16 and Veuc - the government won’t vote for that so we are an impasse. I think the SNP position is right: V@16 and Veuc are great ideas.
I have said repeatedly in recent months that a GE is our system's safety valve.
It is time to go back to the people.
But, boy, Johnson is taking an enormous gamble.
He is
If he loses to Corbyn he will go down in history as the worst Tory leader of them all.
On current polling Corbyn is more likely to go down as the worst Labour leader of them all, Labour is currently polling even worse than 1983 under Foot
Labour polled 22% in the 2010 GE, they then achieved a week or two later 29%.
Your predications are lol! I would be embarrased if i was disprovern as regulary as you have been lately.
I predicted Boris would do a Deal dumping the DUP, I predicted Justin Trudeau would be re elected and I am entirely happy with my prediction Boris will be re elected to get Brexit done
You also predicted
Macron blocking an extension?
Resigning if not out by 31/10?
Won't ask for an extension?
Marie Le Pen winning was my favourite HYUFD prediction.
I have said repeatedly in recent months that a GE is our system's safety valve.
It is time to go back to the people.
But, boy, Johnson is taking an enormous gamble.
He is
If he loses to Corbyn he will go down in history as the worst Tory leader of them all.
On current polling Corbyn is more likely to go down as the worst Labour leader of them all, Labour is currently polling even worse than 1983 under Foot
Labour polled 22% in the 2010 GE, they then achieved a week or two later 29%.
Your predications are lol! I would be embarrased if i was disprovern as regulary as you have been lately.
I predicted Boris would do a Deal dumping the DUP, I predicted Justin Trudeau would be re elected and I am entirely happy with my prediction Boris will be re elected to get Brexit done
You also predicted
Macron blocking an extension?
Resigning if not out by 31/10?
Won't ask for an extension?
Boris did not ask for an extension, Parliament did, he made clear he opposed it, so no need to resign.
Provided MPs vote for a general election this week then that would meet the Macron criteria not to extend unless there was a general election or EUref2
You said macron would not allow an extension.
You also said Boris would resign regardless.
It really is pathetic that you can't ever admit you are wrong. We all are wrong sometimes you know.
I have said repeatedly in recent months that a GE is our system's safety valve.
It is time to go back to the people.
But, boy, Johnson is taking an enormous gamble.
He is
If he loses to Corbyn he will go down in history as the worst Tory leader of them all.
On current polling Corbyn is more likely to go down as the worst Labour leader of them all, Labour is currently polling even worse than 1983 under Foot
Labour polled 22% in the 2010 GE, they then achieved a week or two later 29%.
Your predications are lol! I would be embarrased if i was disprovern as regulary as you have been lately.
I predicted Boris would do a Deal dumping the DUP, I predicted Justin Trudeau would be re elected and I am entirely happy with my prediction Boris will be re elected to get Brexit done
You also predicted
Macron blocking an extension?
Resigning if not out by 31/10?
Won't ask for an extension?
Marie Le Pen winning was my favourite HYUFD prediction.
I have said repeatedly in recent months that a GE is our system's safety valve.
It is time to go back to the people.
But, boy, Johnson is taking an enormous gamble.
He is
If he loses to Corbyn he will go down in history as the worst Tory leader of them all.
On current polling Corbyn is more likely to go down as the worst Labour leader of them all, Labour is currently polling even worse than 1983 under Foot
Labour polled 22% in the 2010 GE, they then achieved a week or two later 29%.
Your predications are lol! I would be embarrased if i was disprovern as regulary as you have been lately.
I predicted Boris would do a Deal dumping the DUP, I predicted Justin Trudeau would be re elected and I am entirely happy with my prediction Boris will be re elected to get Brexit done
You also predicted
Macron blocking an extension?
Resigning if not out by 31/10?
Won't ask for an extension?
Boris did not ask for an extension, Parliament did, he made clear he opposed it, so no need to resign.
Provided MPs vote for a general election this week then that would meet the Macron criteria not to extend unless there was a general election or EUref2
You said macron would not allow an extension.
I said he could veto without a general election or EUref2, we may yet still get a GE this week called before October 31st
The SNP want to amend the bill to add V@16 and Veuc - the government won’t vote for that so we are an impasse. I think the SNP position is right: V@16 and Veuc are great ideas.
The SNP want to amend the bill to add V@16 and Veuc - the government won’t vote for that so we are an impasse. I think the SNP position is right: V@16 and Veuc are great ideas.
Any idea when the votes will be tomorrow or when we will find out whether Labour is willing to back an election or have to be dragged kicking and screaming? Are we going for all 3 readings tomorrow?
It looks like Rees-Mogg may have made an emergency business statement at about 10pm, but they haven't updated the Order Paper on the Parliament website yet. You can see whether Rees-Mogg can answer your questions by looking at about 10pm on the stream from the Commons at https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/127d51d9-895d-483a-974d-b0af55a7f23c
Looks like the penny is dropping with Brexiters. A General Election on the terms Boris appears to be conceeding makes Brexit utterly contingent. An election creates a second chronologically superior mandate to the 3.5 year old advisory referendum. And one for an omnicompetent and soveriegn parliament. Maybe it will deliver a majority for Brexit. But maybe it won't. And every opposition party currently in the Commons ( and the DUP ) will come back with a fresh mandate and hardened opposition to Boris' deal. I wonder what the ex Spartans who bought in to Boris' deal and threw the DUP under a bus feel now ? That they haven't push Brexit over the line but instead taken a massive gamble on Brexit itself ?
Given that Brexit was dependent upon the likes of Lisa Nandy voting for it perhaps they would prefer to take a chance with a GE.
But, if Lisa Nandy gets re-elected on a manifesto committed to a second referendum, then she will (justifiably) feel even less need to back a Brexit deal than she does now.
(Some of the other 'Brexit-curious' Labour MPs, like Ruth Smeeth and Melanie Onn, will probably lose their seats even if Labour manage to somehow limit their net losses to 10-20.)
If there is a Conservative majority after a GE then there will be no need of Labour support.
I'm not sure about that at all -- if there's a Tory majority, and the ERG perceives the alternative to Boris's Deal to be a No Deal Brexit (as opposed to last week, when they perceived the alternative to be Delay, and that therefore the Boris Deal was a lesser evil), I can see them going back to playing silly buggers.
Even today, we had two of the ERG's finest starting to sound less than fulsome in their support for the deal:
I have said repeatedly in recent months that a GE is our system's safety valve.
It is time to go back to the people.
But, boy, Johnson is taking an enormous gamble.
He is
If he loses to Corbyn he will go down in history as the worst Tory leader of them all.
On current polling Corbyn is more likely to go down as the worst Labour leader of them all, Labour is currently polling even worse than 1983 under Foot
Labour polled 22% in the 2010 GE, they then achieved a week or two later 29%.
Your predications are lol! I would be embarrased if i was disprovern as regulary as you have been lately.
I predicted Boris would do a Deal dumping the DUP, I predicted Justin Trudeau would be re elected and I am entirely happy with my prediction Boris will be re elected to get Brexit done
You also predicted
Macron blocking an extension?
Resigning if not out by 31/10?
Won't ask for an extension?
Boris did not ask for an extension, Parliament did, he made clear he opposed it, so no need to resign.
Provided MPs vote for a general election this week then that would meet the Macron criteria not to extend unless there was a general election or EUref2
You said macron would not allow an extension.
I said he could veto without a general election or EUref2, we may yet still get a GE this week called before October 31st
The SNP want to amend the bill to add V@16 and Veuc - the government won’t vote for that so we are an impasse. I think the SNP position is right: V@16 and Veuc are great ideas.
Seems like there might be a majority for that without the Tories. What do the unreconciled ex-cons think?
I have said repeatedly in recent months that a GE is our system's safety valve.
It is time to go back to the people.
But, boy, Johnson is taking an enormous gamble.
He is
If he loses to Corbyn he will go down in history as the worst Tory leader of them all.
On current polling Corbyn is more likely to go down as the worst Labour leader of them all, Labour is currently polling even worse than 1983 under Foot
Labour polled 22% in the 2010 GE, they then achieved a week or two later 29%.
Your predications are lol! I would be embarrased if i was disprovern as regulary as you have been lately.
I predicted Boris would do a Deal dumping the DUP, I predicted Justin Trudeau would be re elected and I am entirely happy with my prediction Boris will be re elected to get Brexit done
You also predicted
Macron blocking an extension?
Resigning if not out by 31/10?
Won't ask for an extension?
Marie Le Pen winning was my favourite HYUFD prediction.
I don’t think he ever conceded that she did not.
On the other timeline, Boris did not send the letter and Marie Le Pen is president of France, making Macron’s veto a non-sequitur.
I have said repeatedly in recent months that a GE is our system's safety valve.
It is time to go back to the people.
But, boy, Johnson is taking an enormous gamble.
He is
If he loses to Corbyn he will go down in history as the worst Tory leader of them all.
On current polling Corbyn is more likely to go down as the worst Labour leader of them all, Labour is currently polling even worse than 1983 under Foot
Labour polled 22% in the 2010 GE, they then achieved a week or two later 29%.
Your predications are lol! I would be embarrased if i was disprovern as regulary as you have been lately.
I predicted Boris would do a Deal dumping the DUP, I predicted Justin Trudeau would be re elected and I am entirely happy with my prediction Boris will be re elected to get Brexit done
You also predicted
Macron blocking an extension?
Resigning if not out by 31/10?
Won't ask for an extension?
Marie Le Pen winning was my favourite HYUFD prediction.
I don’t think he ever conceded that she did not.
I did not say she would win overall but she could win the first round and she did indeed win most French departments in the first round
I wonder if Boris would almost rather lose the election than battle on impotently in this hung parliament? I mean what is the point of being PM if you can't actually do anything?
I suspect he likes the trappings of power and the status it affords him. He does have a closing window of opportunity for an election. I suppose it depends on the Brexit supporting media. If they turn on BJ like they did TM, he has had it!
Why are the SNP throwing their toys out of their pram?
They are simply trying to amend the bill with Vas and Veuc.
i.e. wanting to sabotage it.
I guess they are feeling a bit left out. After all, their position was verging on coherent, and that is so unfashionable nowadays.
I still don't get why people claim this would sabotage it.
Even if votes at 16 and votes for EU citizens passed, although it would damage the Tories' chances at the margins, they would surely still support the election??
The SNP want to amend the bill to add V@16 and Veuc - the government won’t vote for that so we are an impasse. I think the SNP position is right: V@16 and Veuc are great ideas.
No election then.
Time to focus on domestic issues and allow the opposition to use the remaining extension time to decide what they want to do.
I'm not sure about that at all -- if there's a Tory majority, and the ERG perceives the alternative to Boris's Deal to be a No Deal Brexit (as opposed to last week, when they perceived the alternative to be Delay, and that therefore the Boris Deal was a lesser evil), I can see them going back to playing silly buggers.
Yup. Also bear in mind that the new intake will be substantially madder.
The SNP want to amend the bill to add V@16 and Veuc - the government won’t vote for that so we are an impasse. I think the SNP position is right: V@16 and Veuc are great ideas.
Veuc seems bizarre. We're just about to leave, and EU rules already allow them to vote in local elections. Not sure if any EU countries allow votes in national elections for citizens of other EU countries.
Looks like the penny is dropping with Brexiters. A General Election on the terms Boris appears to be conceeding makes Brexit utterly contingent. An election creates a second chronologically superior mandate to the 3.5 year old advisory referendum. And one for an omnicompetent and soveriegn parliament. Maybe it will deliver a majority for Brexit. But maybe it won't. And every opposition party currently in the Commons ( and the DUP ) will come back with a fresh mandate and hardened opposition to Boris' deal. I wonder what the ex Spartans who bought in to Boris' deal and threw the DUP under a bus feel now ? That they haven't push Brexit over the line but instead taken a massive gamble on Brexit itself ?
Given that Brexit was dependent upon the likes of Lisa Nandy voting for it perhaps they would prefer to take a chance with a GE.
But, if Lisa Nandy gets re-elected on a manifesto committed to a second referendum, then she will (justifiably) feel even less need to back a Brexit deal than she does now.
(Some of the other 'Brexit-curious' Labour MPs, like Ruth Smeeth and Melanie Onn, will probably lose their seats even if Labour manage to somehow limit their net losses to 10-20.)
If there is a Conservative majority after a GE then there will be no need of Labour support.
I'm not sure about that at all -- if there's a Tory majority, and the ERG perceives the alternative to Boris's Deal to be a No Deal Brexit (as opposed to last week, when they perceived the alternative to be Delay, and that therefore the Boris Deal was a lesser evil), I can see them going back to playing silly buggers.
Even today, we had two of the ERG's finest starting to sound less than fulsome in their support for the deal:
The SNP want to amend the bill to add V@16 and Veuc - the government won’t vote for that so we are an impasse. I think the SNP position is right: V@16 and Veuc are great ideas.
Seems like there might be a majority for that without the Tories. What do the unreconciled ex-cons think?
I wonder whether ex-Ministers (I include some Labour backbenchers here) might think it needs more thought than this? Is it just EU nationals or all legally resident foreign citizens? What about the wider rights of 16 year olds?
Suspect you’re right there’s a majority in principle though. Seems like broadly the right thing to do.
Why are the SNP throwing their toys out of their pram?
They are simply trying to amend the bill with Vas and Veuc.
i.e. wanting to sabotage it.
I guess they are feeling a bit left out. After all, their position was verging on coherent, and that is so unfashionable nowadays.
I still don't get why people claim this would sabotage it.
Even if votes at 16 and votes for EU citizens passed, although it would damage the Tories' chances at the margins, they would surely still support the election??
Because there is not a snowflake's chance in hell that the Conservatives would support a bill cynically amended like that, and quite right too. They may be a load of shysters nowadays, but they do have some residue of principle.
If the SNP, or anyone else, want an early election, it has to be on the current rules.
I have said repeatedly in recent months that a GE is our system's safety valve.
It is time to go back to the people.
But, boy, Johnson is taking an enormous gamble.
He is
If he loses to Corbyn he will go down in history as the worst Tory leader of them all.
On current polling Corbyn is more likely to go down as the worst Labour leader of them all, Labour is currently polling even worse than 1983 under Foot
Labour polled 22% in the 2010 GE, they then achieved a week or two later 29%.
Your predications are lol! I would be embarrased if i was disprovern as regulary as you have been lately.
I predicted Boris would do a Deal dumping the DUP, I predicted Justin Trudeau would be re elected and I am entirely happy with my prediction Boris will be re elected to get Brexit done
You also predicted
Macron blocking an extension?
Resigning if not out by 31/10?
Won't ask for an extension?
Marie Le Pen winning was my favourite HYUFD prediction.
Comments
Then when Boris got in they called him unelected - https://news.sky.com/story/live-supreme-court-to-rule-on-legality-of-proroguing-parliament-11818306
There was even a beer calling him unelected
https://www.morningadvertiser.co.uk/Article/2019/09/04/BrewDog-launches-Hello-My-Name-Is-Unelected-Boris-beer
Ten years ago Bedford was one of the many constituencies the LibDem rampers were claiming they were going to win in the 2010 GE>
Nothing to do with Brexit.....Vaz got found out- but he compares personally to many of those characteristics....
I thought you were bullish
😆
Piss and wind.
Now the reason some MPs might not want an election is because they've done sod all for their constituents since 2017 and now realise they got to explain their record.
What a clusterf*ck.
So we now waste the run-up to Xmas doing nothing, followed by another crisis in early Jan.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1188944789070340096
(Some of the other 'Brexit-curious' Labour MPs, like Ruth Smeeth and Melanie Onn, will probably lose their seats even if Labour manage to somehow limit their net losses to 10-20.)
But of course... tuition fees. Much worse.
However, I don't have a bloody clue what is going on. Goodnight comrades.
Macron blocking an extension?
Resigning if not out by 31/10?
Won't ask for an extension?
But some people are insisting that the referendum vote takes precedence over anything else in importance, so we have to leave.
Rope-a-dope.
And let’s get those OBR forecasts published too.
The government finances are tanking while Boris fiddles.
lol!!
We can see Boris has 299 as a basis (formed of Tories, indies who want the whip back and Woodcock and co). All of them will vote with him as their jobs rely on it.
There seems to be an emerging question mark over the SNP and maybe the LibDems, but overall an election hits their objectives. The LibDems get more MPs and the SNP get a mandate for a referendum.
Finally, Labour might now figure they may as well go for it.
Basically, I think an election now gets called tomorrow.
Confession - it may be in the interest of my wallet that everyone thinks it’s a racing certainty......
Its a multi-level game - the chance of Brexit being achieved now vs the chance of a Conservative majority at a December GE and the chance of a Conservative majority in a December GE vs the chance of a Conservative majority at a GE held in 2020.
Lots of variables are involved and I don't know the sizes and likelihoods.
Provided MPs vote for a general election this week then that would meet the Macron criteria not to extend unless there was a general election or EUref2
It really is pathetic that you can't ever admit you are wrong. We all are wrong sometimes you know.
https://twitter.com/ianmurraymp/status/1188953124863692801?s=21
I guess they are feeling a bit left out. After all, their position was verging on coherent, and that is so unfashionable nowadays.
Even today, we had two of the ERG's finest starting to sound less than fulsome in their support for the deal:
https://twitter.com/cmackinlay/status/1188832714964787200
https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1188864661451661312
Even if votes at 16 and votes for EU citizens passed, although it would damage the Tories' chances at the margins, they would surely still support the election??
Time to focus on domestic issues and allow the opposition to use the remaining extension time to decide what they want to do.
Or not do if they prefer to exit without a deal.
The Tories' stubbornness their own worst enemy, again.
What's that phrase about history repeating itself
Suspect you’re right there’s a majority in principle though. Seems like broadly the right thing to do.
If the SNP, or anyone else, want an early election, it has to be on the current rules.
Brexit WILL be delivered