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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs seem to be spending big in a seat where they lost thei

SystemSystem Posts: 12,171
edited October 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs seem to be spending big in a seat where they lost their deposit at GE2015 and got just 5.9% in 2017

This morning the above 8 page glossy A4 leaflet was delivered to my house by the postman (ie the distribution was paid for). What’s odd is not that this should happen but that I live in the Bedford parliamentary constituency which you could hardly describe as an LD prospect.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,771
    1st. Like a December election Bill.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Second
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Who were the 70 who voted against?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    I think this GE could be one of the most unpredictable of modern times.

    Yes, Boris currently looks good, but who knows when voters finally turn their attention to it?

    I’ve backed Labour majority at 35/1 and LD majority at 100/1, for now, principally as trading bets. If there’s a surge during the campaign, I’ll trade.

    In the case of the Labour bet it also covers the scenario (admittedly now less likely) that a GE2019 never happens and Corbyn is junked before the next one.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Am I missing something, or didn't Ken Clarke have a point when he said there's now sufficient time to properly debate and pass the WAIB and that's what Parliament should do now?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    On topic: The LibDems are raising a lot of money, and are very sensibly spending a lot now to raise their profile before the spending limits kick in.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited October 2019
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Who were the 70 who voted against?

    38 Lab, 18 LD, 4 PC, 5 tigngzxtwhatever, 4 Indie (Clarke, Hermon, Lloyd, Ellman), Lucas.

    DUP, SNP and most of Lab abstained.

    Hoey/Austin/Field/Lewis/Woodcock voted yes.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Who were the 70 who voted against?

    https://commonsvotes.digiminster.com/Divisions/Details/731#noes
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,771
    Casino_Royale said:

    I think this GE could be one of the most unpredictable of modern times.

    Yes, Boris currently looks good, but who knows when voters finally turn their attention to it?

    I’ve backed Labour majority at 35/1 and LD majority at 100/1, for now, principally as trading bets. If there’s a surge during the campaign, I’ll trade.

    In the case of the Labour bet it also covers the scenario (admittedly now less likely) that a GE2019 never happens and Corbyn is junked before the next one.

    Snap. On the Lab and Lib majority bets.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613
    Casino_Royale said:

    I think this GE could be one of the most unpredictable of modern times.

    Yes, Boris currently looks good, but who knows when voters finally turn their attention to it?

    I’ve backed Labour majority at 35/1 and LD majority at 100/1, for now, principally as trading bets. If there’s a surge during the campaign, I’ll trade.

    In the case of the Labour bet it also covers the scenario (admittedly now less likely) that a GE2019 never happens and Corbyn is junked before the next one.

    Corbyn to resign in 2019 looks a good bet....
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Where is this certainty that we don't have time to have 16 and 17 year olds vote?

    All I'm seeing is one story in the Telegraph.

    Sixteen and Seventeen year olds are already on the register.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    rpjs said:

    Am I missing something, or didn't Ken Clarke have a point when he said there's now sufficient time to properly debate and pass the WAIB and that's what Parliament should do now?

    Of course he does.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,771
    rpjs said:

    Am I missing something, or didn't Ken Clarke have a point when he said there's now sufficient time to properly debate and pass the WAIB and that's what Parliament should do now?

    MPs have all but forgotten about the WAB. It's all election, election, now.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    AndyJS said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Who were the 70 who voted against?

    https://commonsvotes.digiminster.com/Divisions/Details/731#noes
    Thanks. Some quite surprising names there. Odd that quite a few Labour MPs voted against, given that abstaining would have the same effect.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613
    AndyJS said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Who were the 70 who voted against?

    https://commonsvotes.digiminster.com/Divisions/Details/731#noes
    A lot of soon to be ex-MPs in that list......
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,260
    rpjs said:

    Am I missing something, or didn't Ken Clarke have a point when he said there's now sufficient time to properly debate and pass the WAIB and that's what Parliament should do now?

    No, because it would get amended to hell and back. There is currently no majority in the House for any solution to the Brexit Question. We need a new Parliament.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    A rising LD vote in Bedford is just likely to help the Tories regain the seat
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,003
    Will the LDs be stretching to funding mailshots by 'impartial' political betting experts this time?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AndyJS said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Who were the 70 who voted against?

    https://commonsvotes.digiminster.com/Divisions/Details/731#noes
    Thanks. Some quite surprising names there. Odd that quite a few Labour MPs voted against, given that abstaining would have the same effect.
    It's a stronger show of disapproval.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    AndyJS said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AndyJS said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Who were the 70 who voted against?

    https://commonsvotes.digiminster.com/Divisions/Details/731#noes
    Thanks. Some quite surprising names there. Odd that quite a few Labour MPs voted against, given that abstaining would have the same effect.
    It's a stronger show of disapproval.
    Yes... of Jeremy Corbyn, presumably.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    Laura K

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1188895195196207104

    So if the bill passes tomorrow Parliament disolved on Wednesday? So no Speaker election until Parliament returns after the election?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AndyJS said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Who were the 70 who voted against?

    https://commonsvotes.digiminster.com/Divisions/Details/731#noes
    Thanks. Some quite surprising names there. Odd that quite a few Labour MPs voted against, given that abstaining would have the same effect.
    Some, like Ben Bradshaw, are passionate about wanting a Referendum first.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    299 voted in favour tonight. That means just an extra 21 are needed tomorrow out of 54 SNP and LD MPs. (Although it may be less than 21 with abstentions).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Has a parliament ever been dissolved two weeks after a QS before? :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    After tonight's rejection of a December 12th general election up to MPs now to vote for a December 9th date tomorrow, this time with LD and SNP support
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Kate Hoey was the only Labour MP voting in favour.

    https://commonsvotes.digiminster.com/Divisions/Details/731?byMember=false
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    MarqueeMark said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I think this GE could be one of the most unpredictable of modern times.

    Yes, Boris currently looks good, but who knows when voters finally turn their attention to it?

    I’ve backed Labour majority at 35/1 and LD majority at 100/1, for now, principally as trading bets. If there’s a surge during the campaign, I’ll trade.

    In the case of the Labour bet it also covers the scenario (admittedly now less likely) that a GE2019 never happens and Corbyn is junked before the next one.

    Corbyn to resign in 2019 looks a good bet....
    The other side of the bet is to lay him as next PM at 3.85.

    Yes, he could still be PM without a Labour majority if Boris falls short, but it’s a pretty narrow path and there are many opposition parties who don’t want to work with him but would work with almost anyone else.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613
    Mysticrose said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AndyJS said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Who were the 70 who voted against?

    https://commonsvotes.digiminster.com/Divisions/Details/731#noes
    Thanks. Some quite surprising names there. Odd that quite a few Labour MPs voted against, given that abstaining would have the same effect.
    Some, like Ben Bradshaw, are passionate about wanting a Referendum first.
    I assume Ben Bradshaw is standing again, even though he reportedly needed his arm twisting to stand again in 2017?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    RobD said:

    Has a parliament ever been dissolved two weeks after a QS before? :D

    I bet HMQ isn't very happy...
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    GIN1138 said:

    Laura K

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1188895195196207104

    So if the bill passes tomorrow Parliament disolved on Wednesday? So no Speaker election until Parliament returns after the election?

    Didn't someone say that a budget has to be passed for Northern Ireland which is why the proposed date is Dec 12th, not 9th as there wouldn't be time to do that with the earlier date?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    edited October 2019
    If Corbyn tables a VONC tomorrow will it take precedence over the one-line bills?

    If Labour are resigned to having an early GE then a VONC is the best way because it probably installs Corbyn as PM for 14 days and during the election campaign.

    The timing would be VONC on 29th Oct, parliament dissolved on 12 Nov, election on 19th Dec. Low turnout I suspect. Result would depend on who was most motivated.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613
    Barnesian said:

    If Corbyn tables a VONC tomorrow will it take precedence over the one-line bills?

    If Labour are resigned to having an early GE then a VONC is the best way because it probably installs Corbyn as PM for 14 days and during the election campaign.

    The timing would be VONC on 29th Oct, parliament dissolved on 12 Nov, election on 19th Dec. Low turnout I suspect. Result would depend on who was most motivated.

    The VONC will fail.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    rpjs said:

    Am I missing something, or didn't Ken Clarke have a point when he said there's now sufficient time to properly debate and pass the WAIB and that's what Parliament should do now?

    Can one of the PB Boris supporters explain why he doesn't push to get his WA bill through parliament over the next few weeks and then hold a GE?

    I'm genuinely puzzled.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,707
    Has anyone in the LDs or SNP got a decent answer to the question of "why the 9th not the 12th"?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    As I indicated this morning the LibDems are, as would be expected, pushing very hard in St. Albans, but the glossy yellow peril sheet has also landed in Harpenden too - only 10.6% vote in 2017, in third place and 25k adrift of the winning Conservative. However the seat was a 60/40 remain constituency.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited October 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    Laura K

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1188895195196207104

    So if the bill passes tomorrow Parliament disolved on Wednesday? So no Speaker election until Parliament returns after the election?

    Then if the Tories win a majority means an excellent chance for Eleanor Laing
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    solarflare said:

    Has anyone in the LDs or SNP got a decent answer to the question of "why the 9th not the 12th"?

    Students, and stopping Johnson's deal.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Barnesian said:

    If Corbyn tables a VONC tomorrow will it take precedence over the one-line bills?

    If Labour are resigned to having an early GE then a VONC is the best way because it probably installs Corbyn as PM for 14 days and during the election campaign.

    The timing would be VONC on 29th Oct, parliament dissolved on 12 Nov, election on 19th Dec. Low turnout I suspect. Result would depend on who was most motivated.

    IIRC a VONC moved by the LOTO takes precedence over all other business.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    GIN1138 said:

    RobD said:

    Has a parliament ever been dissolved two weeks after a QS before? :D

    I bet HMQ isn't very happy...
    I wouldn't be surprised if the speech was read by a commission next time...
  • crandlescrandles Posts: 91
    GIN1138 said:

    Laura K

    So if the bill passes tomorrow Parliament disolved on Wednesday? So no Speaker election until Parliament returns after the election?

    I assume this means Wed 6 Nov 5 weeks before Dec 12th election, and no time to get one line bill on election date and WAIB by Wed 6 Nov.

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    MarqueeMark said:

    Barnesian said:

    If Corbyn tables a VONC tomorrow will it take precedence over the one-line bills?

    If Labour are resigned to having an early GE then a VONC is the best way because it probably installs Corbyn as PM for 14 days and during the election campaign.

    The timing would be VONC on 29th Oct, parliament dissolved on 12 Nov, election on 19th Dec. Low turnout I suspect. Result would depend on who was most motivated.

    The VONC will fail.
    Yes - probably
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Barnesian said:

    If Corbyn tables a VONC tomorrow will it take precedence over the one-line bills?

    If Labour are resigned to having an early GE then a VONC is the best way because it probably installs Corbyn as PM for 14 days and during the election campaign.

    No it doesn’t. Johnson would stay PM unless Corbyn could win a vote of confidence, which he patently can’t as everyone hates him even more than they do Johnson. So all it does is push the election back a fortnight and exasperate everyone even more.

    He would be mad to do it.

    Therefore, we must assume it’s a realistic chance...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    edited October 2019
    solarflare said:

    Has anyone in the LDs or SNP got a decent answer to the question of "why the 9th not the 12th"?

    Students, and the, I think irrational, fear that it gives just enough time to rush through the WAIB, even though Boris just proved last week he doesn't have the votes for that.
    Benpointer said:

    rpjs said:

    Am I missing something, or didn't Ken Clarke have a point when he said there's now sufficient time to properly debate and pass the WAIB and that's what Parliament should do now?

    Can one of the PB Boris supporters explain why he doesn't push to get his WA bill through parliament over the next few weeks and then hold a GE?

    I'm genuinely puzzled.
    He doesn't think it will pass, and if it will it will be very hard.

    He should try. An election is coming at some point, and it shows he tried and was stopped. He cannot fear looking weak from lost votes, as he has lost loads.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Barnesian said:

    If Corbyn tables a VONC tomorrow will it take precedence over the one-line bills?

    If Labour are resigned to having an early GE then a VONC is the best way because it probably installs Corbyn as PM for 14 days and during the election campaign.

    The timing would be VONC on 29th Oct, parliament dissolved on 12 Nov, election on 19th Dec. Low turnout I suspect. Result would depend on who was most motivated.

    I agree it is better for Labour politically to be seen inflicting a defeat on the govt in a confidence vote. It has the added bonus of further fragmentation of whipless Tories. :smiley:
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    edited October 2019
    solarflare said:

    Has anyone in the LDs or SNP got a decent answer to the question of "why the 9th not the 12th"?

    It's to prevent Johnson ramming the WAB through. No time if it's the 9th. The problem with the 12th under FTPA is that Johnson could change it to say 18 Jan and push the WAB through. Not sure if he can get the WAB through if the 12th Dec is set in concrete. That'll be being checked at this moment.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    HYUFD said:

    A rising LD vote in Bedford is just likely to help the Tories regain the seat

    Not necessarily a bad thing. Lib Dem strategy for this election:

    Tories to win, own Brexit and deliver it.
    Beat Labour into second place (in votes if not in seats)
    Win the following GE

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    MarqueeMark said:

    Barnesian said:

    If Corbyn tables a VONC tomorrow will it take precedence over the one-line bills?

    If Labour are resigned to having an early GE then a VONC is the best way because it probably installs Corbyn as PM for 14 days and during the election campaign.

    The timing would be VONC on 29th Oct, parliament dissolved on 12 Nov, election on 19th Dec. Low turnout I suspect. Result would depend on who was most motivated.

    The VONC will fail.
    But even if it does , it would crowd out debate on Johnson's short bill.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613
    Barnesian said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Barnesian said:

    If Corbyn tables a VONC tomorrow will it take precedence over the one-line bills?

    If Labour are resigned to having an early GE then a VONC is the best way because it probably installs Corbyn as PM for 14 days and during the election campaign.

    The timing would be VONC on 29th Oct, parliament dissolved on 12 Nov, election on 19th Dec. Low turnout I suspect. Result would depend on who was most motivated.

    The VONC will fail.
    Yes - probably
    It will just make Corbyn look more irrelevent and impotent if he can't get his VONC through, but the other parties can get an election at a time of their choosing.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Barnesian said:


    It's to prevent Johnson ramming the WAB through. No time if it's the 9th. The problem with the 12th under FTPA is that Johnson could change it to say 18 Jan and push the WAB through. Not sure if he can get the WAB through if the 12th Dec is set in concrete. That'll be being checked at this moment.

    Surely stunts like that would piss off too many Lab leavers and indies to get the WAB through?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    edited October 2019
    ydoethur said:

    Barnesian said:

    If Corbyn tables a VONC tomorrow will it take precedence over the one-line bills?

    If Labour are resigned to having an early GE then a VONC is the best way because it probably installs Corbyn as PM for 14 days and during the election campaign.

    No it doesn’t. Johnson would stay PM unless Corbyn could win a vote of confidence, which he patently can’t as everyone hates him even more than they do Johnson. So all it does is push the election back a fortnight and exasperate everyone even more.

    He would be mad to do it.

    Therefore, we must assume it’s a realistic chance...
    We've had this discussion before. The Queen would be obliged to call the LOTO as PM. I agree he would be instantly VONC'd but if no-one else is available he remains PM until the election. Probably academic as the VONC in this government would probably fail as MM points out.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    crandles said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Laura K

    So if the bill passes tomorrow Parliament disolved on Wednesday? So no Speaker election until Parliament returns after the election?

    I assume this means Wed 6 Nov 5 weeks before Dec 12th election, and no time to get one line bill on election date and WAIB by Wed 6 Nov.

    If Boris's one line election bill passes this week is there any point in holding the speaker election before parliament returns after the GE? I am sure Bercow could be persuaded to stay on for three more days until dissolution on the 6th Nov.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    Was Cleggy to blame for the two-thirds majority rule in the FTPA? :lol:
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,114
    Yellowhammer stood down

    Boris not messing about
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Barnesian said:

    ydoethur said:

    Barnesian said:

    If Corbyn tables a VONC tomorrow will it take precedence over the one-line bills?

    If Labour are resigned to having an early GE then a VONC is the best way because it probably installs Corbyn as PM for 14 days and during the election campaign.

    No it doesn’t. Johnson would stay PM unless Corbyn could win a vote of confidence, which he patently can’t as everyone hates him even more than they do Johnson. So all it does is push the election back a fortnight and exasperate everyone even more.

    He would be mad to do it.

    Therefore, we must assume it’s a realistic chance...
    We've had this discussion before. The Queen would be obliged to call the LOTO as PM. I agree he would be instantly VONC'd but if no-one else is available he remains PM until the election. Probably academic as the VONC in this government would probably fail as MM points out.
    Only if Boris resigns not VONC.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    Andrew said:

    Barnesian said:


    It's to prevent Johnson ramming the WAB through. No time if it's the 9th. The problem with the 12th under FTPA is that Johnson could change it to say 18 Jan and push the WAB through. Not sure if he can get the WAB through if the 12th Dec is set in concrete. That'll be being checked at this moment.

    Surely stunts like that would piss off too many Lab leavers and indies to get the WAB through?
    Indeed - with an election about to occur there's no need for them to help it, so it would only be for the look of it.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    This looks like some kind of letter to me. Can anyone confirm if this is a letter?

    https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1188867753173749760?s=19
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    BBC reporting that WAB is not to be brought back, so it looks like a December GE.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Johnson guilty of more waste of taxpayer money as operation yellow hammer withdrawn.

    BJ spends money in such a haphazzard way I wonder why Tories on PB are so blind to the waste? He has literally wasted hundreds of millions of pounds...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    edited October 2019
    crandles said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Laura K

    So if the bill passes tomorrow Parliament disolved on Wednesday? So no Speaker election until Parliament returns after the election?

    I assume this means Wed 6 Nov 5 weeks before Dec 12th election, and no time to get one line bill on election date and WAIB by Wed 6 Nov.

    Yes I think that must be right as Laura K has now tweeted this

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1188901106598010880

    Why the hell can't these journos make it clear what they are talking about when they tweet?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Yellowhammer stood down

    Boris not messing about

    Not messing about!?

    He's been messing about spaffing taxpayers' money up the wall (as the saying goes) on 'Get Ready for Brexit' ads for the past two months!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,114
    Barnesian said:

    If Corbyn tables a VONC tomorrow will it take precedence over the one-line bills?

    If Labour are resigned to having an early GE then a VONC is the best way because it probably installs Corbyn as PM for 14 days and during the election campaign.

    The timing would be VONC on 29th Oct, parliament dissolved on 12 Nov, election on 19th Dec. Low turnout I suspect. Result would depend on who was most motivated.

    Corbyn would not win a vonc. There is no time to be messing about
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,570
    Barnesian said:

    ydoethur said:

    Barnesian said:

    If Corbyn tables a VONC tomorrow will it take precedence over the one-line bills?

    If Labour are resigned to having an early GE then a VONC is the best way because it probably installs Corbyn as PM for 14 days and during the election campaign.

    No it doesn’t. Johnson would stay PM unless Corbyn could win a vote of confidence, which he patently can’t as everyone hates him even more than they do Johnson. So all it does is push the election back a fortnight and exasperate everyone even more.

    He would be mad to do it.

    Therefore, we must assume it’s a realistic chance...
    We've had this discussion before. The Queen would be obliged to call the LOTO as PM. I agree he would be instantly VONC'd but if no-one else is available he remains PM until the election. Probably academic as the VONC in this government would probably fail as MM points out.
    The Queen is only obliged to call the LOTO if it is clear they command the support of the House. If it is clear they do not (for example if Johnson, Swindon and Blackford all made clear their parties would not support him) then she does not have to appoint him.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    If Boris stands on an election pledge to implement his Deal will that leave room for the Brexit Party to push their 'Clean Brexit' line?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Yellowhammer stood down

    Boris not messing about

    He should never have invoked it. Millions wasted! I think it is disgusting and was completely unnecessary spending as the Benn act made an extension the only option.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    “WAB won’t be brought back” is a promise from the live man not currently in a ditch.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Benpointer said:

    rpjs said:

    Am I missing something, or didn't Ken Clarke have a point when he said there's now sufficient time to properly debate and pass the WAIB and that's what Parliament should do now?

    Can one of the PB Boris supporters explain why he doesn't push to get his WA bill through parliament over the next few weeks and then hold a GE?

    I'm genuinely puzzled.
    I’m not a Boris supporter but when the WAB gets amended it might not get Tory support
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Barnesian said:

    If Corbyn tables a VONC tomorrow will it take precedence over the one-line bills?

    If Labour are resigned to having an early GE then a VONC is the best way because it probably installs Corbyn as PM for 14 days and during the election campaign.

    The timing would be VONC on 29th Oct, parliament dissolved on 12 Nov, election on 19th Dec. Low turnout I suspect. Result would depend on who was most motivated.

    Corbyn would not win a vonc. There is no time to be messing about
    I agree he probably wouldn't. It doesn't mean he wouldn't mess about.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    edited October 2019
    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Yellowhammer stood down

    Boris not messing about

    Not messing about!?

    He's been messing about spaffing taxpayers' money up the wall (as the saying goes) on 'Get Ready for Brexit' ads for the past two months!
    I think we have to be fair to Boris in that but for a fairly close vote last week on a timetable motion, we likely would have Brexited in just a few days from now, or a couple of weeks afterwards. We genuinely did come close to Brexiting and should have been prepared. And if the getting ready was for no deal, it would be deeply irresponsible to assume that the EU would play ball. Very little chance they would not, but we'd want to bank everything on that? There's many things to criticise Boris for, but after proving he was working to get a deal and was not wasting time, there really was a chance we'd Brexit on time.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,114
    SNP will look at the 12th December date
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited October 2019
    The_Taxman said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Yellowhammer stood down

    Boris not messing about

    He should never have invoked it. Millions wasted! I think it is disgusting and was completely unnecessary spending as the Benn act made an extension the only option.
    Assuming the Tories win a majority in December and then pass the Boris Deal it was simply advance preparation for Brexit by the end of the year
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Tabman said:

    HYUFD said:

    A rising LD vote in Bedford is just likely to help the Tories regain the seat

    Not necessarily a bad thing. Lib Dem strategy for this election:

    Tories to win, own Brexit and deliver it.
    Beat Labour into second place (in votes if not in seats)
    Win the following GE

    On a Rejoin referendum manifesto. Dream scenario!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    Benpointer said:

    If Boris stands on an election pledge to implement his Deal will that leave room for the Brexit Party to push their 'Clean Brexit' line?

    To paraphrase Russell Crowe in "Gladiator":

    "At least give me a Clean Brexit. A Soldier's Brexit!"
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Alistair said:

    This looks like some kind of letter to me. Can anyone confirm if this is a letter?

    https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1188867753173749760?s=19

    Are we sure that's Boris's real signature not just one the HoC has forced him to sign? :lol:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited October 2019
    Benpointer said:

    If Boris stands on an election pledge to implement his Deal will that leave room for the Brexit Party to push their 'Clean Brexit' line?

    Yes but the Tories still have a double digit lead even with the Brexit Party on 10%+ as most Leavers back the Boris Deal unlike the May Deal
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Benpointer said:

    If Boris stands on an election pledge to implement his Deal will that leave room for the Brexit Party to push their 'Clean Brexit' line?

    To paraphrase Russell Crowe in "Gladiator":

    "At least give me a Clean Brexit. A Soldier's Brexit!"
    Isn't Boris looking for a clean ditch now?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613
    Alistair said:

    This looks like some kind of letter to me. Can anyone confirm if this is a letter?

    https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1188867753173749760?s=19

    You have a point?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,260
    kle4 said:

    solarflare said:

    Has anyone in the LDs or SNP got a decent answer to the question of "why the 9th not the 12th"?

    Students, and the, I think irrational, fear that it gives just enough time to rush through the WAIB, even though Boris just proved last week he doesn't have the votes for that.
    Benpointer said:

    rpjs said:

    Am I missing something, or didn't Ken Clarke have a point when he said there's now sufficient time to properly debate and pass the WAIB and that's what Parliament should do now?

    Can one of the PB Boris supporters explain why he doesn't push to get his WA bill through parliament over the next few weeks and then hold a GE?

    I'm genuinely puzzled.
    He doesn't think it will pass, and if it will it will be very hard.

    He should try. An election is coming at some point, and it shows he tried and was stopped. He cannot fear looking weak from lost votes, as he has lost loads.
    Surely the danger is it would be subject to wrecking amendments, and the final bill look nothing like the WA that went in.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    Benpointer said:

    If Boris stands on an election pledge to implement his Deal will that leave room for the Brexit Party to push their 'Clean Brexit' line?

    Absolutely it will. But even accepting that argument as true for a moment, Farage and co have to know that it is Boris Brexit or no Brexit, so I wonder how many of their supporters will walk their leaders' talk.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Was Cleggy to blame for the two-thirds majority rule in the FTPA? :lol:

    I think it was another genius idea from Sir Oliver Letwin.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Will a Programme motion be required for the one clause Bill?
  • BantermanBanterman Posts: 287
    Media trying to push the narrative line that Boris failed on October 31st. Cannot see public buying it.

    The other narrative that all opposition parties use is Boris cannot be trusted, which no media heads ever challenge. Pathetic line.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Benpointer said:

    If Boris stands on an election pledge to implement his Deal will that leave room for the Brexit Party to push their 'Clean Brexit' line?

    Yes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    JohnLilburne said:

    kle4 said:

    solarflare said:

    Has anyone in the LDs or SNP got a decent answer to the question of "why the 9th not the 12th"?

    Students, and the, I think irrational, fear that it gives just enough time to rush through the WAIB, even though Boris just proved last week he doesn't have the votes for that.
    Benpointer said:

    rpjs said:

    Am I missing something, or didn't Ken Clarke have a point when he said there's now sufficient time to properly debate and pass the WAIB and that's what Parliament should do now?

    Can one of the PB Boris supporters explain why he doesn't push to get his WA bill through parliament over the next few weeks and then hold a GE?

    I'm genuinely puzzled.
    He doesn't think it will pass, and if it will it will be very hard.

    He should try. An election is coming at some point, and it shows he tried and was stopped. He cannot fear looking weak from lost votes, as he has lost loads.
    Surely the danger is it would be subject to wrecking amendments, and the final bill look nothing like the WA that went in.
    That's not a danger - he can use that to show his opponents wrecking Brexit - since he could pull support for it and there'd not be enough votes to pass it in the end if that happens, since many of those contributing to wrecking amendments would not back the final bill either, since it would still be Brexit.

    It aids his narrative.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    So the Govt have just confirmed they will not bring back the WAB before dissolution.

    Dec 12th + - a day or two looks pretty certain now
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Benpointer said:

    Alistair said:

    This looks like some kind of letter to me. Can anyone confirm if this is a letter?

    https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1188867753173749760?s=19

    Are we sure that's Boris's real signature not just one the HoC has forced him to sign? :lol:
    It's a photocopy of his signature.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    MarqueeMark said:

    Alistair said:

    This looks like some kind of letter to me. Can anyone confirm if this is a letter?

    https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1188867753173749760?s=19

    You have a point?
    People still obsessed over his two/three letter gambit from a couple of weeks ago for some reason.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    The_Taxman said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Yellowhammer stood down

    Boris not messing about

    He should never have invoked it. Millions wasted! I think it is disgusting and was completely unnecessary spending as the Benn act made an extension the only option.
    Assuming the Tories win a majority in December and then pass the Boris Deal it was simply advance preparation for Brexit by the end of the year
    Look at it this way. It could of funded a tax cut or spending. Yellow hammer is different spending to the "get ready for Brexit" spending. He did not need to invoke Yellow Hammer. A sheer waste of money and yet another misjudgement from bungling Boris.

    You are not a Conservative if you waste money like that...
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1188901016772718592?s=20
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    BONG


    sorry.. couldn't help myself.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613
    Andrew Bridgen is a teeny weeny, isn't he?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Swinson rejects the 12th December !
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    The_Taxman said:

    HYUFD said:

    The_Taxman said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Yellowhammer stood down

    Boris not messing about

    He should never have invoked it. Millions wasted! I think it is disgusting and was completely unnecessary spending as the Benn act made an extension the only option.
    Assuming the Tories win a majority in December and then pass the Boris Deal it was simply advance preparation for Brexit by the end of the year
    Look at it this way. It could of funded a tax cut or spending. Yellow hammer is different spending to the "get ready for Brexit" spending. He did not need to invoke Yellow Hammer. A sheer waste of money and yet another misjudgement from bungling Boris.

    You are not a Conservative if you waste money like that...
    BREXITISM = SOCIALISM! :lol:
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Benpointer said:

    crandles said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Laura K

    So if the bill passes tomorrow Parliament disolved on Wednesday? So no Speaker election until Parliament returns after the election?

    I assume this means Wed 6 Nov 5 weeks before Dec 12th election, and no time to get one line bill on election date and WAIB by Wed 6 Nov.

    If Boris's one line election bill passes this week is there any point in holding the speaker election before parliament returns after the GE? I am sure Bercow could be persuaded to stay on for three more days until dissolution on the 6th Nov.
    Wondered the same. I guess Jon Bercow will hold on until Thursday / Friday or whichever date is dissolution?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613
    kle4 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Alistair said:

    This looks like some kind of letter to me. Can anyone confirm if this is a letter?

    https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1188867753173749760?s=19

    You have a point?
    People still obsessed over his two/three letter gambit from a couple of weeks ago for some reason.
    The obsession that has seen Boris moving ahead in the polls? That one?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Mysticrose said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1188901016772718592?s=20

    The Tories and Cummings understand that forcing Labour to contest an election they don't want is the most important thing.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    kle4 said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Yellowhammer stood down

    Boris not messing about

    Not messing about!?

    He's been messing about spaffing taxpayers' money up the wall (as the saying goes) on 'Get Ready for Brexit' ads for the past two months!
    I think we have to be fair to Boris in that but for a fairly close vote last week on a timetable motion, we likely would have Brexited in just a few days from now, or a couple of weeks afterwards. We genuinely did come close to Brexiting and should have been prepared. And if the getting ready was for no deal, it would be deeply irresponsible to assume that the EU would play ball. Very little chance they would not, but we'd want to bank everything on that? There's many things to criticise Boris for, but after proving he was working to get a deal and was not wasting time, there really was a chance we'd Brexit on time.
    Without knowing what type of Brexit we were getting (and we still don't know) "Get Ready for Brexit" was completely pointless as an advertising campaign. The shallowness of the information available on the government websites was testament to that.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    What’s the over/under turnout line in this December election do we think?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,260
    justin124 said:

    Swinson rejects the 12th December !

    It would be good to have an election other than on a Thursday. A pointless convention.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613
    edited October 2019
    C4 News: "Jo Swinson, leader of the SNP..."
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    So do any whipless Tories looking to stand again get any early Christmas present or are they all out?
This discussion has been closed.