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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another female Jewish MP is hounded out of Labour

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  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    What a huge disappointment .

    Woke up thinking there might be a resolution . Not sure what Johnson does now . The DUP press release isn’t just disagreeing on one thing it’s basically the two key issues of customs and consent with VAT thrown in for good measure.

  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    Dura_Ace said:



    I know you and I disagree violently about Brexit, but I honestly think this is “worse” than May’s deal.

    Why the fuck did BJ agree to it? He must have known the DUP would tell him to stick it. Was he forced into trying it due to his paraphilia for 31st Oct?
    Yes.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    General election here we come...

    ...Right back where we started from...
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    TGOHF2 said:

    Lols when the EU refuse an extension as no sort of deal can ever pass this parly.

    Well, quite.
    A much softer Brexit would cruise through. But first one Conservative Prime Minister sought to impose a hard Brexit and now a second has sought to impose a harder one.
    The EU are at the point of wanting it done. No more extensions gets it done. With no risk of No Deal.
    So, the EU refuse an extension then the DUP vote against - and there's no risk of No Deal?
    Can you explain that again?
    Parliament, will I suspect be the answer given.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584

    General election here we come...

    ...Right back where we started from...

    But with the framing very different.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Can’t the DUP just now admit they backed the wrong horse !

    Brexit is incompatible with NI , no ifs or buts . The issue that was totally ignored during the EU ref campaign is now turning getting an agreement into the Da Vinci Code !
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,724
    TGOHF2 said:

    DUP have pissed on the summit’s chips big style.

    Not much point in it now.

    Not really. The EU summit agenda has 10 items, only one is Brexit, so plenty of time to manage other stuff and let the UK stew in its existential crisis.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    TGOHF2 said:
    Trying to figure out exactly what the EU have conceded on. This is game, set and match to the EU, so the French can “go away and shut up”.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    On one side we have the Tories peddling an incoherent nationalism; I find it difficult to conceive of customs posts on our European 'borders; again. Feels weird!
    And on the other side why, how, has the Labour Party.... the party of the Brotherhood of Man...... got itself soured with anti-semitism. I can understand someone being anti-Israel, as I can someone someone being anti-Trump, but I can't understand opposition to individuals on religious/racial grounds.

    The LibDems have got to do some very hard thinking about how they deal with all this. Just saying 'were not' won't be enough.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,724

    TGOHF2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    I know you and I disagree violently about Brexit, but I honestly think this is “worse” than May’s deal.

    Why the fuck did BJ agree to it? He must have known the DUP would tell him to stick it. Was he forced into trying it due to his paraphilia for 31st Oct?
    There is no deal that this parly can support - sure they could vote through some BINO but that would be a coalition of mongs who wouldn’t survive the GE that would happen soon after.

    In all likelihood, the mean voter in the country “wants” a BINO.
    Perhaps, but the Modal voter wants Remain, and therein lies the problem.

    https://twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1184393436037832706?s=19
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    edited October 2019
    It is going to be very tough for Johnson to pin the blame for a No Deal on the EU from here. Someone who had the best for his country front and centre would now be looking at a Brexit that could win over Labour MPs itching to vote for a deal.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The DUP are totally screwed if their actions cause a no deal . As for Johnson well hard to go into EU blame mood when it’s the DUP that have pulled the plug .

  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584

    It is going to be very tough for Johnson to pin the blame for a No Deal on the EU from here.

    No many saying Boris doesn’t want a deal now is there ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,724

    It is going to be very tough for Johnson to pin the blame for a No Deal on the EU from here.

    K
    TGOHF2 said:
    Keep checking your ditches...
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    XR may have over estimated their popularity

    https://twitter.com/hollyjocollins/status/1184713537232556032?s=21
  • Dura_Ace said:



    I know you and I disagree violently about Brexit, but I honestly think this is “worse” than May’s deal.

    Why the fuck did BJ agree to it? He must have known the DUP would tell him to stick it. Was he forced into trying it due to his paraphilia for 31st Oct?
    Mostly Negotiation 101. I've never bought a car or sold sugar to a supermarket, but it's pretty obvious that if A has a hard deadline to make a deal and B doesn't, A is going to be making all the compromises. (That fair, final compromise offer thing seems like an eternity ago- was it two weeks?)
    That, and what happens if you are involved in a long fiddly text (which in a different context, I have). People tend to get so engrossed in the details, the joy of untangling little bits, that you forget to keep track of the big picture. So you don't notice that your creation isn't going to get off the ground.
    Put those two together, and of course Downing Street wants to get approval for its plan quickly. They just want something, anything, with Brexit on the label. Equally, they shouldn't be allowed to.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    nico67 said:

    The DUP are totally screwed if their actions cause a no deal . As for Johnson well hard to go into EU blame mood when it’s the DUP that have pulled the plug .

    There will be no no deal.

    This painful process is simply the UK trying to find a majority in Parliament for a deal —- and we are learning this morning if we hadn’t realised already — that this likely requires an election.

    The Tories are doing incredibly well in the polls, and Labour incredibly badly, so a deal is really just one general election away.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    The DUP are totally screwed if their actions cause a no deal . As for Johnson well hard to go into EU blame mood when it’s the DUP that have pulled the plug .

    There will be no no deal.

    This painful process is simply the UK trying to find a majority in Parliament for a deal —- and we are learning this morning if we hadn’t realised already — that this likely requires an election.

    The Tories are doing incredibly well in the polls, and Labour incredibly badly, so a deal is really just one general election away.
    Well fine then . I think Johnson needs to drop his stupid pledge and ask for an extension to hold that election, , he can just blame the DUP.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,724

    nico67 said:

    The DUP are totally screwed if their actions cause a no deal . As for Johnson well hard to go into EU blame mood when it’s the DUP that have pulled the plug .

    There will be no no deal.

    This painful process is simply the UK trying to find a majority in Parliament for a deal —- and we are learning this morning if we hadn’t realised already — that this likely requires an election.

    The Tories are doing incredibly well in the polls, and Labour incredibly badly, so a deal is really just one general election away.
    Well things are very volatile. If BoZo's Surrender Deal collapses then the GE occurs either post No Deal or Bozo asks for an extension. Either is likely to shift the polls.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The good news for the ERG is that the focus on the DUP masks the story of whether they already made the deal illegal under UK law.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    Chortle.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    TGOHF2 said:

    DUP have pissed on the summit’s chips big style.

    Not much point in it now.

    They have far more pressing issues than just brexit to discus.
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    nico67 said:

    The DUP are totally screwed if their actions cause a no deal . As for Johnson well hard to go into EU blame mood when it’s the DUP that have pulled the plug .

    That’s one spin way of looking at it. Not the truth though.

    Surely if the DUP can’t accept it, the balls in EU court to budge and compromise a little bit more to get it over the line? EU swanning around around with “its all but there, just a London problem” it’s for the EU to make a move if they are deal makers?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Good morning, Can someone tell me: is Ellman to sit as an independent or is she no longer an MP?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Zephyr said:

    nico67 said:

    The DUP are totally screwed if their actions cause a no deal . As for Johnson well hard to go into EU blame mood when it’s the DUP that have pulled the plug .

    That’s one spin way of looking at it. Not the truth though.

    Surely if the DUP can’t accept it, the balls in EU court to budge and compromise a little bit more to get it over the line? EU swanning around around with “its all but there, just a London problem” it’s for the EU to make a move if they are deal makers?
    They’ve now made two deals, only to see each of them then trashed by their counterparty.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    TGOHF2 said:

    General election here we come...

    ...Right back where we started from...

    But with the framing very different.
    It just needs one EU head of state to say "E-fucking-nough. No more extensions. Let's end this shit show...." and that one means it becomes the EU agreed position. No more extensions. The deal is what the deal is at that point. And the DUP have massively overplayed their hand.

    Step forward Macron.......
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    MarqueeMark: I still think that when it gets down to it the EU, mostly for financial reasons, don`t want us to leave.
  • TGOHF2 said:

    Lols when the EU refuse an extension as no sort of deal can ever pass this parly.

    Well, quite.
    A much softer Brexit would cruise through. But first one Conservative Prime Minister sought to impose a hard Brexit and now a second has sought to impose a harder one.
    That's not true. Those who might vote for a soft Brexit supposedly actually don't want any Brexit at all - and certainly will never vote for anything Tory.

    Those who want Brexit want what you call hard.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited October 2019
    Zephyr said:

    nico67 said:

    The DUP are totally screwed if their actions cause a no deal . As for Johnson well hard to go into EU blame mood when it’s the DUP that have pulled the plug .

    That’s one spin way of looking at it. Not the truth though.

    Surely if the DUP can’t accept it, the balls in EU court to budge and compromise a little bit more to get it over the line? EU swanning around around with “its all but there, just a London problem” it’s for the EU to make a move if they are deal makers?
    Not sure they can do much more . The problem is movement that might bring the DUP on board could in turn cause others to say no . I think it’s clear that an election is needed. The DUP fucked May and now they’re going to fuck Johnson .
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    Stocky said:

    MarqueeMark: I still think that when it gets down to it the EU, mostly for financial reasons, don`t want us to leave.

    We are leaving. If not now, when a party pledged to departing gets a Parliamentary majority. And that could be within months. The UK leaving isn't going away. They can read the polls. And they have a chance to make us depart on their terms, not on No Deal. And a UK PM who wants that deal too. Now.

    I continue to be amazed that people don't see how this will play out.....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    TGOHF2 said:

    Lols when the EU refuse an extension as no sort of deal can ever pass this parly.

    Well, quite.
    A much softer Brexit would cruise through. But first one Conservative Prime Minister sought to impose a hard Brexit and now a second has sought to impose a harder one.
    That's not true. Those who might vote for a soft Brexit supposedly actually don't want any Brexit at all - and certainly will never vote for anything Tory.

    Those who want Brexit want what you call hard.
    I’d have been quite happy with either May’s deal or EEA - in many respects, happier than with full EU membership - and I voted Remain in 2016 and Tory in 2017.
  • Hard to know where Boris goes now plan a b c d e f etc have failed. Maybe he will reverse ferret a second ref?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    nico67 said:

    Zephyr said:

    nico67 said:

    The DUP are totally screwed if their actions cause a no deal . As for Johnson well hard to go into EU blame mood when it’s the DUP that have pulled the plug .

    That’s one spin way of looking at it. Not the truth though.

    Surely if the DUP can’t accept it, the balls in EU court to budge and compromise a little bit more to get it over the line? EU swanning around around with “its all but there, just a London problem” it’s for the EU to make a move if they are deal makers?
    Not sure they can do much more . The problem is movement that might bring the DUP on board could in turn cause others to say no . I think it’s clear that an election is needed. The DUP fucked May and now they’re going to fuck Johnson .
    The DUP has been the only consistent group in this saga.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    ydoethur said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Lols when the EU refuse an extension as no sort of deal can ever pass this parly.

    Well, quite.
    A much softer Brexit would cruise through. But first one Conservative Prime Minister sought to impose a hard Brexit and now a second has sought to impose a harder one.
    That's not true. Those who might vote for a soft Brexit supposedly actually don't want any Brexit at all - and certainly will never vote for anything Tory.

    Those who want Brexit want what you call hard.
    I’d have been quite happy with either May’s deal or EEA - in many respects, happier than with full EU membership - and I voted Remain in 2016 and Tory in 2017.
    Philip,

    I don't know how to break it to you but May's deal is better than this one.

    It kept Northern Ireland within the UK for starters.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    edited October 2019
    Zephyr said:

    nico67 said:

    The DUP are totally screwed if their actions cause a no deal . As for Johnson well hard to go into EU blame mood when it’s the DUP that have pulled the plug .

    That’s one spin way of looking at it. Not the truth though.

    Surely if the DUP can’t accept it, the balls in EU court to budge and compromise a little bit more to get it over the line? EU swanning around around with “its all but there, just a London problem” it’s for the EU to make a move if they are deal makers?
    There is nothing requiring the EU to budge one milimetre. They see a UK Parliament that has legislated against No Deal. If they allow an election, that might change.

    They have the current set of MPs by the balls, after they willingly put them in a vice and tightened.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Lols when the EU refuse an extension as no sort of deal can ever pass this parly.

    Well, quite.
    A much softer Brexit would cruise through. But first one Conservative Prime Minister sought to impose a hard Brexit and now a second has sought to impose a harder one.
    That's not true. Those who might vote for a soft Brexit supposedly actually don't want any Brexit at all - and certainly will never vote for anything Tory.

    Those who want Brexit want what you call hard.
    I’d have been quite happy with either May’s deal or EEA - in many respects, happier than with full EU membership - and I voted Remain in 2016 and Tory in 2017.
    Philip,

    I don't know how to break it to you but May's deal is better than this one.

    It kept Northern Ireland within the UK for starters.

    But it also effectively kept the UK in the EU for starters.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236

    TGOHF2 said:

    Lols when the EU refuse an extension as no sort of deal can ever pass this parly.

    Well, quite.
    A much softer Brexit would cruise through. But first one Conservative Prime Minister sought to impose a hard Brexit and now a second has sought to impose a harder one.
    A much softer Brexit backed by the government would. An MV on one failed, you will recall.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236

    So:

    NI would be de jure part of the UK, but de facto part of the EU.

    The DUP are going to have a canary.
    That’s not what it says at all.

    It seems a reasonable compromise to me and the EU have made a series of meaningful concessions there.

    The DUP would be mad not to take it.
    If and when GB agrees an FTA with the EU, GB and NI will de facto increasingly diverge...

    NI will be trapped in a de facto EU regulatory space, and a veto handed to Sinn Fein.

    I think DUP would be mad to go for it.

    I know you and I disagree violently about Brexit, but I honestly think this is “worse” than May’s deal.
    Nope, it isn’t: it’s better.

    It’s just the Remainers now sense it as a threat so want to pre-emptively sledge it.

    We all know the game.
    Indeed - the Tory right wrote the book with May’s deal.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited October 2019
    i

    TGOHF2 said:

    Lols when the EU refuse an extension as no sort of deal can ever pass this parly.

    Well, quite.
    A much softer Brexit would cruise through. But first one Conservative Prime Minister sought to impose a hard Brexit and now a second has sought to impose a harder one.
    That's not true. Those who might vote for a soft Brexit supposedly actually don't want any Brexit at all - and certainly will never vote for anything Tory.

    Those who want Brexit want what you call hard.
    Maybe a matter of tense. Soft Brexit would have cruised through if governments including May and Johnson, who was part of May's government, had prioritised a consensus Brexit outcome over partisan manouevres.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    Stocky said:

    Good morning, Can someone tell me: is Ellman to sit as an independent or is she no longer an MP?

    She's still an MP. Hasn't announced whether she'll join someone else or sit as an independent.

    It's a curiosity that FPTP, which normally makes it impossible for independents to win, has generated a Parliament with no fewer than 41 people out of 650 who are no longer in the parties for which they were elected.

    At a personal level, I was surprised to learn a few months ago that I'm Jewish myself - an elderly relative got in touch and told me that my mother's parents were, and traditionally it goes through the mother's line. My mum was profoundly uninterested in religion or tradition and never mentioned it, though she was very fond of Israel because of her work for refugees. It was sort of in her memory that I joined and ended up on the national executive of Labour Friends of Israel, supposedly as the only non-Jewish member.

    For what it's worth, I entirely disagree with Louise, and think that the party is more, not less, on top of anti-semitism than when she stood for it in 2017. But I've never got worked up about people switching parties either way - we've all got a right to our opinions, and they evolve.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627

    Zephyr said:

    nico67 said:

    The DUP are totally screwed if their actions cause a no deal . As for Johnson well hard to go into EU blame mood when it’s the DUP that have pulled the plug .

    That’s one spin way of looking at it. Not the truth though.

    Surely if the DUP can’t accept it, the balls in EU court to budge and compromise a little bit more to get it over the line? EU swanning around around with “its all but there, just a London problem” it’s for the EU to make a move if they are deal makers?
    There is nothing requiring the EU to budge one milimetre. They see a UK Parliament that has legislated against No Deal. If they allow an election, that might change.

    They have the current set of MPs by the balls, after they willingly put them in a vice and tightened.
    I think the EU are getting mightily fed up with it all now, and are trying to force Parliament into a deal/no-deal/revoke scenario with no more can-kicking. No-deal would be the default, if Parliament can’t agree in the next week what should happen.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    MarqueeMark said: "We are leaving. If not now, when a party pledged to departing gets a Parliamentary majority. And that could be within months. The UK leaving isn't going away. They can read the polls. And they have a chance to make us depart on their terms, not on No Deal. And a UK PM who wants that deal too. Now."

    The GE may not be until 2022. The timing is in the gift of the opposition (due to FTPA). A lot can happen between then and now. The polls show that the majority is now for remain.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    FF43 said:

    a consensus Brexit outcome over partisan manouevres.

    Brexit is a partisan manouevre

    It was conceived as such and delivered as such.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Lols when the EU refuse an extension as no sort of deal can ever pass this parly.

    Well, quite.
    A much softer Brexit would cruise through. But first one Conservative Prime Minister sought to impose a hard Brexit and now a second has sought to impose a harder one.
    That's not true. Those who might vote for a soft Brexit supposedly actually don't want any Brexit at all - and certainly will never vote for anything Tory.

    Those who want Brexit want what you call hard.
    I’d have been quite happy with either May’s deal or EEA - in many respects, happier than with full EU membership - and I voted Remain in 2016 and Tory in 2017.
    Philip,

    I don't know how to break it to you but May's deal is better than this one.

    It kept Northern Ireland within the UK for starters.

    But it also effectively kept the UK in the EU for starters.
    It got us out of the CFP, CAP, the ECJ, the Commission, the Parliament, the ECB and most of the other political rubbish while giving us what amounted to free trade.

    What more did you want?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    Stocky said:

    MarqueeMark said: "We are leaving. If not now, when a party pledged to departing gets a Parliamentary majority. And that could be within months. The UK leaving isn't going away. They can read the polls. And they have a chance to make us depart on their terms, not on No Deal. And a UK PM who wants that deal too. Now."

    The GE may not be until 2022. The timing is in the gift of the opposition (due to FTPA). A lot can happen between then and now. The polls show that the majority is now for remain.

    The polls show that the Conservatives can get a majority without the DUP. And if so, Brexit ain't going away.

    That is the reality the EU are looking at. Especially the new Commission, who really, really do not want Brexit still festering when they take office.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Nigelb said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Lols when the EU refuse an extension as no sort of deal can ever pass this parly.

    Well, quite.
    A much softer Brexit would cruise through. But first one Conservative Prime Minister sought to impose a hard Brexit and now a second has sought to impose a harder one.
    A much softer Brexit backed by the government would. An MV on one failed, you will recall.
    If a tenth of the Parliamentary time had been spent investigating softer Brexits that has been spent indulging the headbangers, Britain would long ago have moved to the next stage of this fiasco.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Johnson won’t take kindly to being upstaged by Foster on his big day . I wonder what Cummings has in store .

    Very hard for Bozo to pull the plug now as the ERG have been all over the press saying how good the deal looked and trying to blame the EU isn’t going to wash as the DUP are the ones that scuppered it.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236

    Nigelb said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Lols when the EU refuse an extension as no sort of deal can ever pass this parly.

    Well, quite.
    A much softer Brexit would cruise through. But first one Conservative Prime Minister sought to impose a hard Brexit and now a second has sought to impose a harder one.
    A much softer Brexit backed by the government would. An MV on one failed, you will recall.
    If a tenth of the Parliamentary time had been spent investigating softer Brexits that has been spent indulging the headbangers, Britain would long ago have moved to the next stage of this fiasco.
    I completely agree; but it is the government (most of the time) who are in charge of the Parliamentary timetable.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,215
    TGOHF2 said:

    XR may have over estimated their popularity

    https://twitter.com/hollyjocollins/status/1184713537232556032?s=21

    I think this can unite leavers and remainers
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,724

    Stocky said:

    Good morning, Can someone tell me: is Ellman to sit as an independent or is she no longer an MP?

    She's still an MP. Hasn't announced whether she'll join someone else or sit as an independent.

    It's a curiosity that FPTP, which normally makes it impossible for independents to win, has generated a Parliament with no fewer than 41 people out of 650 who are no longer in the parties for which they were elected.

    At a personal level, I was surprised to learn a few months ago that I'm Jewish myself - an elderly relative got in touch and told me that my mother's parents were, and traditionally it goes through the mother's line. My mum was profoundly uninterested in religion or tradition and never mentioned it, though she was very fond of Israel because of her work for refugees. It was sort of in her memory that I joined and ended up on the national executive of Labour Friends of Israel, supposedly as the only non-Jewish member.

    For what it's worth, I entirely disagree with Louise, and think that the party is more, not less, on top of anti-semitism than when she stood for it in 2017. But I've never got worked up about people switching parties either way - we've all got a right to our opinions, and they evolve.
    It says in her letter that she is not joining another party, so she should be regarded as Independent Labour as far as voting goes.

    She is the mirror image of Sandbach, threatened with deselection as insufficiently in the cult of the leader.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Lols when the EU refuse an extension as no sort of deal can ever pass this parly.

    Well, quite.
    A much softer Brexit would cruise through. But first one Conservative Prime Minister sought to impose a hard Brexit and now a second has sought to impose a harder one.
    That's not true. Those who might vote for a soft Brexit supposedly actually don't want any Brexit at all - and certainly will never vote for anything Tory.

    Those who want Brexit want what you call hard.
    I’d have been quite happy with either May’s deal or EEA - in many respects, happier than with full EU membership - and I voted Remain in 2016 and Tory in 2017.
    Philip,

    I don't know how to break it to you but May's deal is better than this one.

    It kept Northern Ireland within the UK for starters.

    But it also effectively kept the UK in the EU for starters.
    It got us out of the CFP, CAP, the ECJ, the Commission, the Parliament, the ECB and most of the other political rubbish while giving us what amounted to free trade.

    What more did you want?
    No compromise.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    Scott_P said:

    The good news for the ERG is that the focus on the DUP masks the story of whether they already made the deal illegal under UK law.

    Right on Joylon
    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    XR may have over estimated their popularity

    https://twitter.com/hollyjocollins/status/1184713537232556032?s=21

    I think this can unite leavers and remainers
    Certainly looks like the climate is changing for XR ...
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    Nigelb said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Lols when the EU refuse an extension as no sort of deal can ever pass this parly.

    Well, quite.
    A much softer Brexit would cruise through. But first one Conservative Prime Minister sought to impose a hard Brexit and now a second has sought to impose a harder one.
    A much softer Brexit backed by the government would. An MV on one failed, you will recall.
    If a tenth of the Parliamentary time had been spent investigating softer Brexits that has been spent indulging the headbangers, Britain would long ago have moved to the next stage of this fiasco.
    True and even more bizarre why the DUP were too stupid to realize that getting into bed with the ERG would end in tears . They should have pushed for a soft Brextit from that start .
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    love the typo in the thread header Jezza swill...
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Dura_Ace said:



    I know you and I disagree violently about Brexit, but I honestly think this is “worse” than May’s deal.

    Why the fuck did BJ agree to it? He must have known the DUP would tell him to stick it. Was he forced into trying it due to his paraphilia for 31st Oct?
    I think he's in a better position than he would have been if he hadn't done any real negotiating. If he has a deal but the DUP vote it down he can probably run on "give me a majority to pass my deal and get brexit done", which is a little bit less attractive than his previous whichever-of-deal-and-no-deal-the-voter-prefers position, but still potentially a winner. And he's now close enough to get some cover for requesting the inevitable extension, which previously would have been terrible.

    At the same time by getting off the no-deal track he has a decent chance of getting back the MPs he rather carelessly gave away. That's much better than having them on the opposite side, and potentially doing a GNU and passing a deal with a referendum, which would have been terrible for him.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    I suppose the Deal goes through either now, or a bit later after a technical extension, or a bit later still after a Con win in a GE. Whatever - it's going through.

    This being the Deal that was the EU's first preference from the outset. The Deal that we could have signed up to ages ago.

    So the net impact of all of the crap from all of our politicians over the last two years is essentially that May lost her job and Johnson got it. Result.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    AndyJS said:

    "DUP 'cannot support' Brexit deal as Johnson heads to Brussels for EU summit"

    https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-heads-for-brussels-as-brexit-deal-hangs-in-the-balance-11837315

    So much for 'DUP would be crazy to turn this down' .

    So it's a GE, at some point, with BoJo pushing his deal hoping he gets enough mps that he doesnt need the DUP.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Lols when the EU refuse an extension as no sort of deal can ever pass this parly.

    Well, quite.
    A much softer Brexit would cruise through. But first one Conservative Prime Minister sought to impose a hard Brexit and now a second has sought to impose a harder one.
    That's not true. Those who might vote for a soft Brexit supposedly actually don't want any Brexit at all - and certainly will never vote for anything Tory.

    Those who want Brexit want what you call hard.
    I’d have been quite happy with either May’s deal or EEA - in many respects, happier than with full EU membership - and I voted Remain in 2016 and Tory in 2017.
    Philip,

    I don't know how to break it to you but May's deal is better than this one.

    It kept Northern Ireland within the UK for starters.

    But it also effectively kept the UK in the EU for starters.
    No it effectively kept us in the customs union without the need to pay the stupid amounts other countries pay for the same access.

    Instead we leave the EU which means we probably wave goodbye to Nissan and other exporting companies over the next few years (via deaths by a thousand cuts) while we willingly split the country up in an attempt to get a deal.

    That's not to say that leaving without a deal is any better as we would be back in the same situation within weeks but it does show how badly everyone in the UK has played their hands.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited October 2019

    “As things stand”.

    Hmmmm. I suppose it’s only rational for the DUP to squeeze everything they can out of this. If we ever leave, we should subcontract all international negotiations to them.

    For this parliament anyway. They are going to be so mad when they no longer have such power - one thing they love more than the union is the influence this parliament affords them.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    I placed some confident bets on Corbyn still being LP leader after July 2020, but for the first time I`m getting wobbly over these positions.

    I don`t think Corbyn would be challenged prior to a GE, but I think he may resign prior to a GE.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    love the typo in the thread header Jezza swill...

    It’s a pig of a typo.

    Have a good morning.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,003
    edited October 2019
    The growing list of things that are a bitch:

    Life
    Karma
    The DUP

    it fair warms the cockles of my heart to think of the wee sad faces of those types who only weeks ago were declaiming piously about the inviolability of UK sovereignty and then seamlessly transitioned to chucking the DUP under the bus for a deal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Referring to our Prime Minister as "Johnson" on Newsnight sounds pointed - and petty. I wonder if they would refer to the popular singer "Ciccone" and not thought to be a wanker?

    People moaning about him being called Boris is tiresome, and generally pretty insulting to the public for the supposed benefits it grants him, but I don't know that objecting to him being called by his last name is that different.
    I think you'd be naive to think it doesn't grant him benefits - he wouldn't have cultivated it otherwise. He is a politician who puts more effort into a carefully constructed fake persona than any other front rank UK politician. It's not even his bloody name!
    I dont buy it. I generally call him Boris and I think hes an absolute arsehole, whatever cuddly persona he had or has doesnt mean people are more disposed to him if a pundit says Boris rather than Boris Johnson or just Johnson. How stupid are people supposed to be?
    Er, have you met a lot of people?
    Not really. But I dont think there is any appreciable benefit to Boris by being called Boris. He has branded himself effectively as Boris, but that doesnt mean the brand works for everyone .

    In fairness, no to AV's strategy of 'you are too stupid to understand AV' worked, so telling people they are dumb can work.
    I think being known by his first name (actually his second name, but you know what I mean) is an advantage. Who do we tend to call by their first name? Friends and family, people we are close to. It creates a sense of familiarity and informality. He is not an idiot, this is not an accident. He has a very cleverly constructed public persona, and it is more or less completely fake. Personally, I don't call people by their first name unless I know them. I just think it's fucking weird to call him Boris. He's not my mate.
    Maybe its weird but the informality if it doesnt mean people back him at the ballot box. If that gives him electoral advantage then there is no hope for humanity because apparently we have the brains of a cuttlefish.
  • Foxy said:

    Stocky said:

    Good morning, Can someone tell me: is Ellman to sit as an independent or is she no longer an MP?

    She's still an MP. Hasn't announced whether she'll join someone else or sit as an independent.

    It's a curiosity that FPTP, which normally makes it impossible for independents to win, has generated a Parliament with no fewer than 41 people out of 650 who are no longer in the parties for which they were elected.

    At a personal level, I was surprised to learn a few months ago that I'm Jewish myself - an elderly relative got in touch and told me that my mother's parents were, and traditionally it goes through the mother's line. My mum was profoundly uninterested in religion or tradition and never mentioned it, though she was very fond of Israel because of her work for refugees. It was sort of in her memory that I joined and ended up on the national executive of Labour Friends of Israel, supposedly as the only non-Jewish member.

    For what it's worth, I entirely disagree with Louise, and think that the party is more, not less, on top of anti-semitism than when she stood for it in 2017. But I've never got worked up about people switching parties either way - we've all got a right to our opinions, and they evolve.
    It says in her letter that she is not joining another party, so she should be regarded as Independent Labour as far as voting goes.

    She is the mirror image of Sandbach, threatened with deselection as insufficiently in the cult of the leader.

    Sandbach wasn’t targeted because she is Jewish, though.

  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "DUP 'cannot support' Brexit deal as Johnson heads to Brussels for EU summit"

    https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-heads-for-brussels-as-brexit-deal-hangs-in-the-balance-11837315

    So much for 'DUP would be crazy to turn this down' .

    So it's a GE, at some point, with BoJo pushing his deal hoping he gets enough mps that he doesnt need the DUP.
    BoJo selling a deal in a GE is far harder for him than BoJo pushing for a deal with a No Deal threat.

    All unicorn Brexit deals will be lost resulting in a core Brexit vote that Boris won't be able to access.

    Mind you at least people when voting will understand that this will be the last general election in the UK. The next one will be England and Wales alone.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Been following the 'Twitter Arsehole Of The Year' World Cup - quite funny - and have to report a real upset at the semi final stage.

    Toby Young has been KNOCKED OUT !! - beaten by Julia Hartley-Brewer.

    It's like losing Brazil.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Scott_P said:
    Tice is probably right if the Remain campaign is led by the same idiots as last time.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    edited October 2019
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    Lols when the EU refuse an extension as no sort of deal can ever pass this parly.

    Well, quite.
    A much softer Brexit would cruise through. But first one Conservative Prime Minister sought to impose a hard Brexit and now a second has sought to impose a harder one.
    That's not true. Those who might vote for a soft Brexit supposedly actually don't want any Brexit at all - and certainly will never vote for anything Tory.

    Those who want Brexit want what you call hard.
    I’d have been quite happy with either May’s deal or EEA - in many respects, happier than with full EU membership - and I voted Remain in 2016 and Tory in 2017.
    Philip,

    I don't know how to break it to you but May's deal is better than this one.

    It kept Northern Ireland within the UK for starters.

    But it also effectively kept the UK in the EU for starters.
    It got us out of the CFP, CAP, the ECJ, the Commission, the Parliament, the ECB and most of the other political rubbish while giving us what amounted to free trade.

    What more did you want?
    A deal that didn't reward the EU in the FTA for negotiating in bad faith?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Oh look, we are in exactly the same position as Dec 2017.

    Again.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    morning all, my 2p on the thread,

    It's always the women because they are the easy target. There is an underlying assumption in the left, and especially the hard left, that they cannot be racist/sexist etc "because they are of the left". this is where the antisemitism comes from.

    once you get to the point where you don't notice that you are being antisemitic it's not much of a stretch to start applying other underlying prejudices. The most common of this is misogyny.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    AndyJS said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    I was surprised there were any Jewish MPs left in Labour .

    Those elected in 2017 were:

    Margaret Hodge, Ivan Lewis, Fabian Hamilton, Luciana Berger, Louise Ellman, Ruth Smeeth, Ed Miliband, Alex Sobel.

    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/election-2017-winners-and-losers-on-a-night-of-drama-1.440165
    I am amazed to hear Ed Miliband is still an MP, where has he been hiding for the last 3 years.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    I do like the mike drop by the DUP this morning.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    SouthamObserver said "You’ve got to hand it to Johnson ..."

    He`s taken the decision to sacrifice Union to some extent and prioritise Brexit. The country would never have voted the way it did in the referendum if we had known this was a possibility.

    Jonathan Powell said that leaving the EU was logically and therefore legally inconsistent with the Good Friday Agreement. But I think he pointed this out after the referendum.
  • kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "DUP 'cannot support' Brexit deal as Johnson heads to Brussels for EU summit"

    https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-heads-for-brussels-as-brexit-deal-hangs-in-the-balance-11837315

    So much for 'DUP would be crazy to turn this down' .

    So it's a GE, at some point, with BoJo pushing his deal hoping he gets enough mps that he doesnt need the DUP.
    Except that the harder Boris pushes the deal, the more space he leaves for Nigel to quote the more surrendery bits of the deal at him. Unfair? Maybe a little bit.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    kinabalu said: " Been following the 'Twitter Arsehole Of The Year' World Cup - quite funny"

    Just as well Rod Liddle isn`t on twitter.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Stocky said:

    SouthamObserver said "You’ve got to hand it to Johnson ..."

    He`s taken the decision to sacrifice Union to some extent and prioritise Brexit. The country would never have voted the way it did in the referendum if we had known this was a possibility.

    Jonathan Powell said that leaving the EU was logically and therefore legally inconsistent with the Good Friday Agreement. But I think he pointed this out after the referendum.

    You really think Brexit voters care that much for the customs union with Northern Ireland?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Stocky said:

    I placed some confident bets on Corbyn still being LP leader after July 2020, but for the first time I`m getting wobbly over these positions.

    I don`t think Corbyn would be challenged prior to a GE, but I think he may resign prior to a GE.

    Yes, I think you will lose on this. He will go in the 1st half of 2020, IMO, unless he wins an election (which I can't really see him doing).
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    TGOHF2 said:

    Lols when the EU refuse an extension as no sort of deal can ever pass this parly.

    Well, quite.
    A much softer Brexit would cruise through. But first one Conservative Prime Minister sought to impose a hard Brexit and now a second has sought to impose a harder one.
    The EU are at the point of wanting it done. No more extensions gets it done. With no risk of No Deal.
    So, the EU refuse an extension then the DUP vote against - and there's no risk of No Deal?
    Can you explain that again?
    There will be too many MP's cacking their pants over No Deal that vote will be won without the DUP. They will end up out on their arses and no need to pay the bribes either.
  • Hard to know where Boris goes now plan a b c d e f etc have failed. Maybe he will reverse ferret a second ref?

    It is the obvious thing to do. A government backed referendum deal will pass with a higher probability than any other path. They could even try and make it purely confirmatory (i.e. pass deal or extend - no remain option). Why dont they do it?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,724
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    I placed some confident bets on Corbyn still being LP leader after July 2020, but for the first time I`m getting wobbly over these positions.

    I don`t think Corbyn would be challenged prior to a GE, but I think he may resign prior to a GE.

    Yes, I think you will lose on this. He will go in the 1st half of 2020, IMO, unless he wins an election (which I can't really see him doing).
    I think it unlikely that he will go before next autumn conference, so check the small print on the bet.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    edited October 2019
    TGOHF2 said:

    XR may have over estimated their popularity

    https://twitter.com/hollyjocollins/status/1184713537232556032?s=21

    If that’s what they do to people standing on top of a train, what on Earth would they do if the protestors were standing to the left on an escalator?
  • Foxy said:

    Stocky said:

    Good morning, Can someone tell me: is Ellman to sit as an independent or is she no longer an MP?

    She's still an MP. Hasn't announced whether she'll join someone else or sit as an independent.

    It's a curiosity that FPTP, which normally makes it impossible for independents to win, has generated a Parliament with no fewer than 41 people out of 650 who are no longer in the parties for which they were elected.

    At a personal level, I was surprised to learn a few months ago that I'm Jewish myself - an elderly relative got in touch and told me that my mother's parents were, and traditionally it goes through the mother's line. My mum was profoundly uninterested in religion or tradition and never mentioned it, though she was very fond of Israel because of her work for refugees. It was sort of in her memory that I joined and ended up on the national executive of Labour Friends of Israel, supposedly as the only non-Jewish member.

    For what it's worth, I entirely disagree with Louise, and think that the party is more, not less, on top of anti-semitism than when she stood for it in 2017. But I've never got worked up about people switching parties either way - we've all got a right to our opinions, and they evolve.
    It says in her letter that she is not joining another party, so she should be regarded as Independent Labour as far as voting goes.

    She is the mirror image of Sandbach, threatened with deselection as insufficiently in the cult of the leader.

    Sandbach wasn’t targeted because she is Jewish, though.

    I am very surprised that Foxy could even compare the two.

    It verges on endorsing labours anti semitism
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    tig86 said: "You really think Brexit voters care that much for the customs union with Northern Ireland?"

    Not that level of detail, but I think that sufficient care about the union in general to have moved the ref result the other way. Same can be said for the "divorce payment".
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    nico67 said:

    Johnson won’t take kindly to being upstaged by Foster on his big day . I wonder what Cummings has in store .

    Very hard for Bozo to pull the plug now as the ERG have been all over the press saying how good the deal looked and trying to blame the EU isn’t going to wash as the DUP are the ones that scuppered it.

    Bit of both. The EU did not move enough to enable our dear friends in the DUP to feel comfortable with this, alas.

    If I were the EU I'd not agree it now since it wont pass, and if BoJo does win an election he will probably seek further changes as he can pass it easier. Extension ahoy.

    If there is a vote then without the DUP I think it gets to around 300 as a maximum.
  • Time for Boris Johnson to tell the DUP that No Deal will see him deliver an Irish unification referendum.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    "DUP 'cannot support' Brexit deal as Johnson heads to Brussels for EU summit"

    https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-heads-for-brussels-as-brexit-deal-hangs-in-the-balance-11837315

    So much for 'DUP would be crazy to turn this down' .

    So it's a GE, at some point, with BoJo pushing his deal hoping he gets enough mps that he doesnt need the DUP.
    Except that the harder Boris pushes the deal, the more space he leaves for Nigel to quote the more surrendery bits of the deal at him. Unfair? Maybe a little bit.
    Farage might also quote 536 categorical statements by Johnson that Brexit would happen on 31 October.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Time for Boris Johnson to tell the DUP that No Deal will see him deliver an Irish unification referendum.

    It's too late - once they've already stated their position they get too embarrassed to change it, afraid of looking weak.
  • malcolmg said:

    AndyJS said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    I was surprised there were any Jewish MPs left in Labour .

    Those elected in 2017 were:

    Margaret Hodge, Ivan Lewis, Fabian Hamilton, Luciana Berger, Louise Ellman, Ruth Smeeth, Ed Miliband, Alex Sobel.

    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/election-2017-winners-and-losers-on-a-night-of-drama-1.440165
    I am amazed to hear Ed Miliband is still an MP, where has he been hiding for the last 3 years.
    Don't know but I bet its not in Doncaster.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    XR may have over estimated their popularity

    https://twitter.com/hollyjocollins/status/1184713537232556032?s=21

    I think this can unite leavers and remainers
    Utter wankers.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said: " Been following the 'Twitter Arsehole Of The Year' World Cup - quite funny"

    Just as well Rod Liddle isn`t on twitter.

    :smile:

    Yes, also a heavyweight arsehole.

    If Toby is Brazil, Rod would be Germany.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,724
    edited October 2019

    Scott_P said:
    Tice is probably right if the Remain campaign is led by the same idiots as last time.
    I think it very possible that Remain would lose and kill all possibility of an early Rejoin. Rejoin is most likely with a Car crash No Deal.
This discussion has been closed.