Johnson won’t take kindly to being upstaged by Foster on his big day . I wonder what Cummings has in store .
Very hard for Bozo to pull the plug now as the ERG have been all over the press saying how good the deal looked and trying to blame the EU isn’t going to wash as the DUP are the ones that scuppered it.
Bit of both. The EU did not move enough to enable our dear friends in the DUP to feel comfortable with this, alas.
If I were the EU I'd not agree it now since it wont pass, and if BoJo does win an election he will probably seek further changes as he can pass it easier. Extension ahoy.
If there is a vote then without the DUP I think it gets to around 300 as a maximum.
Without the DUP I think this fails worse than the third meaningful vote.
Lols when the EU refuse an extension as no sort of deal can ever pass this parly.
Well, quite.
A much softer Brexit would cruise through. But first one Conservative Prime Minister sought to impose a hard Brexit and now a second has sought to impose a harder one.
The EU are at the point of wanting it done. No more extensions gets it done. With no risk of No Deal.
So, the EU refuse an extension then the DUP vote against - and there's no risk of No Deal? Can you explain that again?
There will be too many MP's cacking their pants over No Deal that vote will be won without the DUP. They will end up out on their arses and no need to pay the bribes either.
Quite. But the EU being so bold to force the issue? Denying the chance of a labour negotiation, GE or referendum because they are irritated? The EU are not reactionary enough for that.
Foxy said: "I think it unlikely that he will go before next autumn conference, so check the small print on the bet."
With regard to the next LP Leader betting, what I can`t get a handle on is the current balance of the LP membership.
The outflow of memebers since 2017 has been reported, but it would be good to know whether this has altered the balance of hard-left membership v moderates.
Without knowing this it is difficult to form a view on the result of a run-off between (say) Long Bailey v Starmer, or Pidcock v Cooper etc.
Johnson won’t take kindly to being upstaged by Foster on his big day . I wonder what Cummings has in store .
Very hard for Bozo to pull the plug now as the ERG have been all over the press saying how good the deal looked and trying to blame the EU isn’t going to wash as the DUP are the ones that scuppered it.
Bit of both. The EU did not move enough to enable our dear friends in the DUP to feel comfortable with this, alas.
If I were the EU I'd not agree it now since it wont pass, and if BoJo does win an election he will probably seek further changes as he can pass it easier. Extension ahoy.
If there is a vote then without the DUP I think it gets to around 300 as a maximum.
Without the DUP I think this fails worse than the third meaningful vote.
It's possible. 300 was a maximum assuming a good number of the Spartans switch to support and most of the ex con do, which is not certain. Call it 270-300 perhaps
Referring to our Prime Minister as "Johnson" on Newsnight sounds pointed - and petty. I wonder if they would refer to the popular singer "Ciccone" and not thought to be a wanker?
People moaning about him being called Boris is tiresome, and generally pretty insulting to the public for the supposed benefits it grants him, but I don't know that objecting to him being called by his last name is that different.
I think you'd be naive to think it doesn't grant him benefits - he wouldn't have cultivated it otherwise. He is a politician who puts more effort into a carefully constructed fake persona than any other front rank UK politician. It's not even his bloody name!
I dont buy it. I generally call him Boris and I think hes an absolute arsehole, whatever cuddly persona he had or has doesnt mean people are more disposed to him if a pundit says Boris rather than Boris Johnson or just Johnson. How stupid are people supposed to be?
Er, have you met a lot of people?
Not really. But I dont think there is any appreciable benefit to Boris by being called Boris. He has branded himself effectively as Boris, but that doesnt mean the brand works for everyone .
In fairness, no to AV's strategy of 'you are too stupid to understand AV' worked, so telling people they are dumb can work.
I think being known by his first name (actually his second name, but you know what I mean) is an advantage. Who do we tend to call by their first name? Friends and family, people we are close to. It creates a sense of familiarity and informality. He is not an idiot, this is not an accident. He has a very cleverly constructed public persona, and it is more or less completely fake. Personally, I don't call people by their first name unless I know them. I just think it's fucking weird to call him Boris. He's not my mate.
Maybe its weird but the informality if it doesnt mean people back him at the ballot box. If that gives him electoral advantage then there is no hope for humanity because apparently we have the brains of a cuttlefish.
The brain does not work in a rational, logical way at all. Most of our thinking is done on autopilot through loose connections, and being known by a first name rather than surname will have a (pretty small) positive impact at the ballot box.
It doesnt mean we have the brains of a cuttlefish, there are good reasons why our brains work in this way, it has helped us far more than a purely logical brain of the same size would. I suggest reading "Thinking Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman.
So much for 'DUP would be crazy to turn this down' .
So it's a GE, at some point, with BoJo pushing his deal hoping he gets enough mps that he doesnt need the DUP.
BoJo selling a deal in a GE is far harder for him than BoJo pushing for a deal with a No Deal threat.
Especially a deal that has been torpedoed by the Brexiteers (again). Fighting an election on a policy that the right wing of his party views as a betrayal should be an interesting experience.
What an utter fool he was to expel all those moderate MPs.
Johnson won’t take kindly to being upstaged by Foster on his big day . I wonder what Cummings has in store .
Very hard for Bozo to pull the plug now as the ERG have been all over the press saying how good the deal looked and trying to blame the EU isn’t going to wash as the DUP are the ones that scuppered it.
Bit of both. The EU did not move enough to enable our dear friends in the DUP to feel comfortable with this, alas.
If I were the EU I'd not agree it now since it wont pass, and if BoJo does win an election he will probably seek further changes as he can pass it easier. Extension ahoy.
If there is a vote then without the DUP I think it gets to around 300 as a maximum.
Without the DUP I think this fails worse than the third meaningful vote.
It's possible. 300 was a maximum assuming a good number of the Spartans switch to support and most of the ex con do, which is not certain. Call it 270-300 perhaps
He’s done nothing of consequence to woo Labour dealers, who are now scurrying for cover, and he’s massively alienated the anti-no deal Conservatives who are not all going to vote the same way as last time.
Foxy said: "I think it unlikely that he will go before next autumn conference, so check the small print on the bet."
With regard to the next LP Leader betting, what I can`t get a handle on is the current balance of the LP membership.
The outflow of memebers since 2017 has been reported, but it would be good to know whether this has altered the balance of hard-left membership v moderates.
Without knowing this it is difficult to form a view on the result of a run-off between (say) Long Bailey v Starmer, or Pidcock v Cooper etc.
I think the next LP leader will be whoever McDonnell backs. I think I'm right in thinking he is really popular with the membership; moreso than Corbyn atm, and he's on manoeuvres with internal staffing. McDonnell's already made it clear he thinks it should be a woman. I wonder if he's willing to back Thornberry, as long as she remains left wing enough.
Time for Boris Johnson to tell the DUP that No Deal will see him deliver an Irish unification referendum.
It's too late - once they've already stated their position they get too embarrassed to change it, afraid of looking weak.
Just a point - Sky are emphasising the DUP will not support the deal as it stands and continue discussions with the government.
I think this heading for a delay in the deal to next week, Boris complying with the Benn act, and the EU refusing to make a decision on any extension before then
Referring to our Prime Minister as "Johnson" on Newsnight sounds pointed - and petty. I wonder if they would refer to the popular singer "Ciccone" and not thought to be a wanker?
People moaning about him being called Boris is tiresome, and generally pretty insulting to the public for the supposed benefits it grants him, but I don't know that objecting to him being called by his last name is that different.
I think you'd be naive to think it doesn't grant him benefits - he wouldn't have cultivated it otherwise. He is a politician who puts more effort into a carefully constructed fake persona than any other front rank UK politician. It's not even his bloody name!
I dont buy it. I generally call him Boris and I think hes an absolute arsehole, whatever cuddly persona he had or has doesnt mean people are more disposed to him if a pundit says Boris rather than Boris Johnson or just Johnson. How stupid are people supposed to be?
Er, have you met a lot of people?
Not really. But I dont think there is any appreciable benefit to Boris by being called Boris. He has branded himself effectively as Boris, but that doesnt mean the brand works for everyone .
In fairness, no to AV's strategy of 'you are too stupid to understand AV' worked, so telling people they are dumb can work.
I think being known by his first name (actually his second name, but you know what I mean) is an advantage. Who do we tend to call
Maybe its weird sh.
The brain does not work in a rational, logical way at all. Most of our thinking is done on autopilot through loose connections, and being known by a first name rather than surname will have a (pretty small) positive impact at the ballot box.
It doesnt mean we have the brains of a cuttlefish, there are good reasons why our brains work in this way, it has helped us far more than a purely logical brain of the same size would. I suggest reading "Thinking Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman.
Dress it up all you wish, when his opponents whinge that he gets an advantage by being referred to as Boris is insulting to voters whether it is true or not, so they might as well not whinge since it wont change what most people call him.
So much for 'DUP would be crazy to turn this down' .
So it's a GE, at some point, with BoJo pushing his deal hoping he gets enough mps that he doesnt need the DUP.
BoJo selling a deal in a GE is far harder for him than BoJo pushing for a deal with a No Deal threat.
Especially a deal that has been torpedoed by the Brexiteers (again). Fighting an election on a policy that the right wing of his party views as a betrayal should be an interesting experience.
What an utter fool he was to expel all those moderate MPs.
Has it been torpedoed by Brexiters ? The DUP aren't Brexiters, they are Unionists.
Correct me if I'm wrong but the ERG are mostly onboard.
The deal is being "torpedoed" by the Labour, SNP and Lib Dem parties.
The "moderate" MPs are entirely free to vote for it
Time for Boris Johnson to tell the DUP that No Deal will see him deliver an Irish unification referendum.
It's too late - once they've already stated their position they get too embarrassed to change it, afraid of looking weak.
Just a point - Sky are emphasising the DUP will not support the deal as it stands and continue discussions with the government.
I think this heading for a delay in the deal to next week, Boris complying with the Benn act, and the EU refusing to make a decision on any extension before then
As it stands could always be used, like with the labour leavers. Its GE or preferably referendum time
Lols when the EU refuse an extension as no sort of deal can ever pass this parly.
Well, quite.
A much softer Brexit would cruise through. But first one Conservative Prime Minister sought to impose a hard Brexit and now a second has sought to impose a harder one.
The EU are at the point of wanting it done. No more extensions gets it done. With no risk of No Deal.
So, the EU refuse an extension then the DUP vote against - and there's no risk of No Deal? Can you explain that again?
There will be too many MP's cacking their pants over No Deal that vote will be won without the DUP. They will end up out on their arses and no need to pay the bribes either.
Quite. But the EU being so bold to force the issue? Denying the chance of a labour negotiation, GE or referendum because they are irritated? The EU are not reactionary enough for that.
Everybody has a point where they just say "F it I have had enough of these tossers"
148grss said: "McDonnell's already made it clear he thinks it should be a woman. I wonder if he's willing to back Thornberry, as long as she remains left wing enough."
You may be right, but I think Long-Bailey is favourite. She`s awful obviously. Would be great result for the Tories.
Labour would choose Starmer if they had any sense.
Johnson won’t take kindly to being upstaged by Foster on his big day . I wonder what Cummings has in store .
Very hard for Bozo to pull the plug now as the ERG have been all over the press saying how good the deal looked and trying to blame the EU isn’t going to wash as the DUP are the ones that scuppered it.
Bit of both. The EU did not move enough to enable our dear friends in the DUP to feel comfortable with this, alas.
If I were the EU I'd not agree it now since it wont pass, and if BoJo does win an election he will probably seek further changes as he can pass it easier. Extension ahoy.
If there is a vote then without the DUP I think it gets to around 300 as a maximum.
Without the DUP I think this fails worse than the third meaningful vote.
It's possible. 300 was a maximum assuming a good number of the Spartans switch to support and most of the ex con do, which is not certain. Call it 270-300 perhaps
He’s done nothing of consequence to woo Labour dealers, who are now scurrying for cover, and he’s massively alienated the anti-no deal Conservatives who are not all going to vote the same way as last time.
Exactly, 286 minus around half of the ex cons or more, no more labour figures and a couple of Spartans added as in government but most saying no gets to 270 ish. Loyal Spartans gets him to 300 even without other labour votes .
Dress it up all you wish, when his opponents whinge that he gets an advantage by being referred to as Boris is insulting to voters whether it is true or not, so they might as well not whinge since it wont change what most people call him.
Name recognition gives you 2 things - it means you are known by people but it also means people have decided on your which may or may be a negative.
Boris the clown is a good thing when people are happy witness the Olympics with Boris as London mayor, it might not be so good when selling a bad deal.
I know you and I disagree violently about Brexit, but I honestly think this is “worse” than May’s deal.
Why the fuck did BJ agree to it? He must have known the DUP would tell him to stick it. Was he forced into trying it due to his paraphilia for 31st Oct?
There is no deal that this parly can support - sure they could vote through some BINO but that would be a coalition of mongs who wouldn’t survive the GE that would happen soon after.
In all likelihood, the mean voter in the country “wants” a BINO.
Lols when the EU refuse an extension as no sort of deal can ever pass this parly.
Well, quite.
A much softer Brexit would cruise through. But first one Conservative Prime Minister sought to impose a hard Brexit and now a second has sought to impose a harder one.
That's not true. Those who might vote for a soft Brexit supposedly actually don't want any Brexit at all - and certainly will never vote for anything Tory.
Those who want Brexit want what you call hard.
I’d have been quite happy with either May’s deal or EEA - in many respects, happier than with full EU membership - and I voted Remain in 2016 and Tory in 2017.
Philip,
I don't know how to break it to you but May's deal is better than this one.
It kept Northern Ireland within the UK for starters.
But it also effectively kept the UK in the EU for starters.
It got us out of the CFP, CAP, the ECJ, the Commission, the Parliament, the ECB and most of the other political rubbish while giving us what amounted to free trade.
What more did you want?
Control over our laws.
We aren't in the ECB and wouldn't have left the ECJ de facto.
Referring to our Prime Minister as "Johnson" on Newsnight sounds pointed - and petty. I wonder if they would refer to the popular singer "Ciccone" and not thought to be a wanker?
People moaning about him being called Boris is tiresome, and generally pretty insulting to the public for the supposed benefits it grants him, but I don't know that objecting to him being called by his last name is that different.
I think you'd be naive to think it doesn't grant him benefits - he wouldn't have cultivated it otherwise. He is a politician who puts more effort into a carefully constructed fake persona than any other front rank UK politician. It's not even his bloody name!
Er, have you met a lot of people?
Not really. But I dont think there is any appreciable benefit to Boris by being called Boris. He has branded himself effectively as Boris, but that doesnt mean the brand works for everyone .
In fairness, no to AV's strategy of 'you are too stupid to understand AV' worked, so telling people they are dumb can work.
I think being known by his first name (actually his second name, but you know what I mean) is an advantage. Who do we tend to call
Maybe its weird sh.
The brain does not work in a rational, logical way at all. Most of our thinking is done on autopilot through loose connections, and being known by a first name rather than surname will have a (pretty small) positive impact at the ballot box.
It doesnt mean we have the brains of a cuttlefish, there are good reasons why our brains work in this way, it has helped us far more than a purely logical brain of the same size would. I suggest reading "Thinking Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman.
Dress it up all you wish, when his opponents whinge that he gets an advantage by being referred to as Boris is insulting to voters whether it is true or not, so they might as well not whinge since it wont change what most people call him.
I am not at all insulted to have learned that the human brain is not particularly logical or rational. It is one of the reasons we are terrible at instinctive probabilities or having consistent preferences. The flip side is it allows us to do complex tasks like drive without "thinking" about it.
If people are insulted so be it, its not always a reason not to say something that is true.
So much for 'DUP would be crazy to turn this down' .
So it's a GE, at some point, with BoJo pushing his deal hoping he gets enough mps that he doesnt need the DUP.
BoJo selling a deal in a GE is far harder for him than BoJo pushing for a deal with a No Deal threat.
Especially a deal that has been torpedoed by the Brexiteers (again). Fighting an election on a policy that the right wing of his party views as a betrayal should be an interesting experience.
What an utter fool he was to expel all those moderate MPs.
Has it been torpedoed by Brexiters ? The DUP aren't Brexiters, they are Unionists.
Correct me if I'm wrong but the ERG are mostly onboard.
The deal is being "torpedoed" by the Labour, SNP and Lib Dem parties.
The "moderate" MPs are entirely free to vote for it
Of course, in a sense you're right, but there's no escaping the fact that people were hoping a deal would pass narrowly if the DUP (and their ERG allies) supported it, and the DUP has decided not to.
If Johnson could command the votes of his own party and his DUP allies, then this would pass. He can't.
148grss said: "McDonnell's already made it clear he thinks it should be a woman. I wonder if he's willing to back Thornberry, as long as she remains left wing enough."
You may be right, but I think Long-Bailey is favourite. She`s awful obviously. Would be great result for the Tories.
Labour would choose Starmer if they had any sense.
since when has the Labour membership shown any sense?
Lols when the EU refuse an extension as no sort of deal can ever pass this parly.
Well, quite.
A much softer Brexit would cruise through. But first one Conservative Prime Minister sought to impose a hard Brexit and now a second has sought to impose a harder one.
The EU are at the point of wanting it done. No more extensions gets it done. With no risk of No Deal.
So, the EU refuse an extension then the DUP vote against - and there's no risk of No Deal? Can you explain that again?
There will be too many MP's cacking their pants over No Deal that vote will be won without the DUP. They will end up out on their arses and no need to pay the bribes either.
Quite. But the EU being so bold to force the issue? Denying the chance of a labour negotiation, GE or referendum because they are irritated? The EU are not reactionary enough for that.
Everybody has a point where they just say "F it I have had enough of these tossers"
The strength of a collective decision (ok, someone could dissent and block, but that comes at a big price so effectively it will be collective). The downside is muddy compromise and delay, but the upside is avoiding giving in to the ones who do want to say F it.
They want their options open. If they want us out they can force us to deal or revoke. Yet before Boris tried to negotiate we were clearly told to expect extension.
148grss said: "McDonnell's already made it clear he thinks it should be a woman. I wonder if he's willing to back Thornberry, as long as she remains left wing enough."
You may be right, but I think Long-Bailey is favourite. She`s awful obviously. Would be great result for the Tories.
Labour would choose Starmer if they had any sense.
Literally any replacement leader would have a bounce from the hole in which Corbyn has led the party.
The present situation is best understood if the following are true:
a) The DUP intends to remain in all circumstances. This overrides all other considerations.
b) Boris's priorities are 1 Stay PM (that's the one which overrides all others) 2 Remain if possible. (He is getting plenty of help with this from his enemies). or Leave with a deal before an election 3 But under no circumstances leave without a deal before a GE, as of course a GE in the chaos following such an event may well be lost. (He is getting plenty of help with this from the Benn Act.)
Assume that nothing anyone says is true unless and until their final deeds match their words.
So much for 'DUP would be crazy to turn this down' .
So it's a GE, at some point, with BoJo pushing his deal hoping he gets enough mps that he doesnt need the DUP.
BoJo selling a deal in a GE is far harder for him than BoJo pushing for a deal with a No Deal threat.
Especially a deal that has been torpedoed by the Brexiteers (again). Fighting an election on a policy that the right wing of his party views as a betrayal should be an interesting experience.
What an utter fool he was to expel all those moderate MPs.
Has it been torpedoed by Brexiters ? The DUP aren't Brexiters, they are Unionists.
Correct me if I'm wrong but the ERG are mostly onboard.
The deal is being "torpedoed" by the Labour, SNP and Lib Dem parties.
The "moderate" MPs are entirely free to vote for it
It’s being torpedoed by Boris being a twat, as far as I can tell. This is the consequence of the arbitrary October 31 deadline.
Referring to our Prime Minister as "Johnson" on Newsnight sounds pointed - and petty. I wonder if they would refer to the popular singer "Ciccone" and not thought to be a wanker?
People moaning about him being called Boris is tiresome, and generally pretty insulting to the public for the supposed benefits it grants him, but I don't know that objecting to him being called by his last name is that different.
I think you'd be naive to think it doesn't grant him benefits - he wouldn't have cultivated it otherwise. He is a politician who puts more effort into a carefully constructed fake persona than any other front rank UK politician. It's not even his bloody name!
Er, have you met a lot of people?
Not really. But I dont think there is any appreciable benefit to Boris by being called Boris. He has branded himself effectively as Boris, but that doesnt mean the brand works for everyone .
In fairness, no to AV's strategy of 'you are too stupid to understand AV' worked, so telling people they are dumb can work.
I think being known by his first name (actually his second name, but you know what I mean) is an advantage. Who do we tend to call
Maybe its weird sh.
The brain does not work in a rational, logical way at all. Most of our thinking is done on autopilot through loose connections, and being known by a first name rather than surname will have a (pretty small) positive impact at the ballot box.
It doesnt mean we have the brains of a cuttlefish, there are good reasons why our brains work in this way, it has helped us far more than a purely logical brain of the same size would. I suggest reading "Thinking Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman.
Dress it up all ll him.
I am not at all insulted to have learned that the human brain is not particularly logical or rational. It is one of the reasons we are terrible at instinctive probabilities or having consistent preferences. The flip side is it allows us to do complex tasks like drive without "thinking" about it.
If people are insulted so be it, its not always a reason not to say something that is true.
I doubt it is true but my point was if it's true or not Boris's opponents should not whinge about it as some do - it wont prevent it happening and looks petty as hell, and makes them look lacking in confidence
148grss said: "McDonnell's already made it clear he thinks it should be a woman. I wonder if he's willing to back Thornberry, as long as she remains left wing enough."
You may be right, but I think Long-Bailey is favourite. She`s awful obviously. Would be great result for the Tories.
Labour would choose Starmer if they had any sense.
I really don't think they will vote for Long-Bailey. She isn't a "big beast", she doesn't have the long history, and I don't see her winning enough votes. Thornberry will be able to consolidate the MPs, Unions should be fine with her, and she can probably get a plurality of the membership as a loyal Corbyn supporter but also a good remainer.
So much for 'DUP would be crazy to turn this down' .
So it's a GE, at some point, with BoJo pushing his deal hoping he gets enough mps that he doesnt need the DUP.
BoJo selling a deal in a GE is far harder for him than BoJo pushing for a deal with a No Deal threat.
Especially a deal that has been torpedoed by the Brexiteers (again). Fighting an election on a policy that the right wing of his party views as a betrayal should be an interesting experience.
What an utter fool he was to expel all those moderate MPs.
Has it been torpedoed by Brexiters ? The DUP aren't Brexiters, they are Unionists.
Correct me if I'm wrong but the ERG are mostly onboard.
The deal is being "torpedoed" by the Labour, SNP and Lib Dem parties.
The "moderate" MPs are entirely free to vote for it
It’s being torpedoed by Boris being a twat, as far as I can tell. This is the consequence of the arbitrary October 31 deadline.
His being a twat is a poor reason to say no to a deal if that deal is good enough for the EU. It being a bad deal because he has rushed it because of his stupid 31 October pledge is stronger.
148grss said: "McDonnell's already made it clear he thinks it should be a woman. I wonder if he's willing to back Thornberry, as long as she remains left wing enough."
You may be right, but I think Long-Bailey is favourite. She`s awful obviously. Would be great result for the Tories.
Labour would choose Starmer if they had any sense.
I think the Starmer cheering is misplaced, he would make an averagely good cabinet minister but is not a leader. McDonnell himself is by far the standout performer in the shadow Cabinet, as much as I think he is dangerous.
If its to be a woman then Jess Phillips would be an intriguing choice which could work either succeed or fail spectacularly but is unlikely to be dull. None of the other women below 100 on betfair would be a credible leader.
148grss said: "McDonnell's already made it clear he thinks it should be a woman. I wonder if he's willing to back Thornberry, as long as she remains left wing enough."
You may be right, but I think Long-Bailey is favourite. She`s awful obviously. Would be great result for the Tories.
Labour would choose Starmer if they had any sense.
Literally any replacement leader would have a bounce from the hole in which Corbyn has led the party.
yes, but the problem that the next Labour Leader has is that, unless they are Corbyn mark 2, they will have to deal with all the problems that were left behind by him. like kinnock that could take a lot of time
Time for Boris Johnson to tell the DUP that No Deal will see him deliver an Irish unification referendum.
It's too late - once they've already stated their position they get too embarrassed to change it, afraid of looking weak.
Just a point - Sky are emphasising the DUP will not support the deal as it stands and continue discussions with the government.
I think this heading for a delay in the deal to next week, Boris complying with the Benn act, and the EU refusing to make a decision on any extension before then
As it stands could always be used, like with the labour leavers. Its GE or preferably referendum time
A referendum requiring a delay to summer 2020 would be met with dismay by voters and there is no agreement on the wording including whether no deal should be on the ballot.
Furthermore, it cannot be predicted how it pans out and in a narrow win for remain do we have the best of three
I hope the EU provide a technical extention or for a GE but refuse a lengthy delay.
Indeed I very much doubt the French and others want us anywhere near the EU for the next six months and beyond
Such a dumb "point" by Biden. It comes from the money that individuals and businesses don't have to spend on private medical insurance. How the hell the richest nation on Earth can't figure out a way to deliver universal healthcare is completey beyond me. Maybe the country is full of selfish arseholes?
Did anyone who voted leave actually have this current scenario in mind when they cast their ballot. The future of the UK being horse traded with a party that received 292,000 total votes in the last election. We've lost our minds.
Referring to our Prime Minister as "Johnson" on Newsnight sounds pointed - and petty. I wonder if they would refer to the popular singer "Ciccone" and not thought to be a wanker?
People moaning about him being called Boris is tiresome, and generally pretty insulting to the public for the supposed benefits it grants him, but I don't know that objecting to him being called by his last name is that different.
I think you'd be naive to think it doesn't grant him benefits - he wouldn't have cultivated it otherwise. He is a politician who puts more effort into a carefully constructed fake persona than any other front rank UK politician. It's not even his bloody name!
Er, have you met a lot of people?
Not really. But I dont think there is any appreciable benefit to Boris by being called Boris. He has branded himself effectively as Boris, but that doesnt mean the brand works for everyone .
In fairness, no to AV's strategy of 'you are too stupid to understand AV' worked, so telling people they are dumb can work.
I think being known by his first name (actually his second name, but you know what I mean) is an advantage. Who do we tend to call
Maybe its weird sh.
The brain does not work in a rational, logical way at all. Most of our thinking is done on autopilot through loose connections, and being known by a first name rather than surname will have a (pretty small) positive impact at the ballot box.
It doesnt mean we have the brains of a cuttlefish, man.
Dress it up all ll him.
I am not at all insulted to have learned that the human brain is not particularly logical or rational. It is one of the reasons we are terrible at instinctive probabilities or having consistent preferences. The flip side is it allows us to do complex tasks like drive without "thinking" about it.
If people are insulted so be it, its not always a reason not to say something that is true.
I doubt it is true but my point was if it's true or not Boris's opponents should not whinge about it as some do - it wont prevent it happening and looks petty as hell, and makes them look lacking in confidence
And the insult is the idea we cannot overcome our lizard brain impulses when it comes to voting.
Did anyone who voted leave actually have this current scenario in mind when they cast their ballot. The future of the UK being horse traded with a party that received 292,000 total votes in the last election. We've lost our minds.
Which is why we need a GE.
Amusingly the DUP are burning away long term Conservative support for NI.
148grss said: "McDonnell's already made it clear he thinks it should be a woman. I wonder if he's willing to back Thornberry, as long as she remains left wing enough."
You may be right, but I think Long-Bailey is favourite. She`s awful obviously. Would be great result for the Tories.
Labour would choose Starmer if they had any sense.
When considering who Labour might eventually decide should be its next leader, we need to put aside any consideration about what might be a rational choice in terms of future electability.
So I agree with you that Long-Bailey is favorite. Once the Momentum machinery gets behind her, and the remainder of Labour MPs opposed to Corbyn come out in favour of someone else, then the post 2015 membership of the Labour Party will very quickly get behind her.
Time for Boris Johnson to tell the DUP that No Deal will see him deliver an Irish unification referendum.
It's too late - once they've already stated their position they get too embarrassed to change it, afraid of looking weak.
Just a point - Sky are emphasising the DUP will not support the deal as it stands and continue discussions with the government.
I think this heading for a delay in the deal to next week, Boris complying with the Benn act, and the EU refusing to make a decision on any extension before then
As it stands could always be used, like with the labour leavers. Its GE or preferably referendum time
A referendum requiring a delay to summer 2020 would be met with dismay by voters and there is no agreement on the wording including whether no deal should be on the ballot.
Furthermore, it cannot be predicted how it pans out and in a narrow win for remain do we have the best of three
I hope the EU provide a technical extention or for a GE but refuse a lengthy delay.
Indeed I very much doubt the French and others want us anywhere near the EU for the next six months and beyond
If they extend I am right, if they dont extend you are right.
I know you and I disagree violently about Brexit, but I honestly think this is “worse” than May’s deal.
Why the fuck did BJ agree to it? He must have known the DUP would tell him to stick it. Was he forced into trying it due to his paraphilia for 31st Oct?
I think he's in a better position than he would have been if he hadn't done any real negotiating. If he has a deal but the DUP vote it down he can probably run on "give me a majority to pass my deal and get brexit done", which is a little bit less attractive than his previous whichever-of-deal-and-no-deal-the-voter-prefers position, but still potentially a winner. And he's now close enough to get some cover for requesting the inevitable extension, which previously would have been terrible.
At the same time by getting off the no-deal track he has a decent chance of getting back the MPs he rather carelessly gave away. That's much better than having them on the opposite side, and potentially doing a GNU and passing a deal with a referendum, which would have been terrible for him.
Roll of the electoral dice is what Johnson has left: vote for my overall majority to get this thing done. Good chance of working I suspect. If it doesn't, he's out of options. He's compromised and failed at that point.
SouthamObserver said "You’ve got to hand it to Johnson ..."
He`s taken the decision to sacrifice Union to some extent and prioritise Brexit. The country would never have voted the way it did in the referendum if we had known this was a possibility.
Did anyone who voted leave actually have this current scenario in mind when they cast their ballot. The future of the UK being horse traded with a party that received 292,000 total votes in the last election. We've lost our minds.
There has been a lot of "we would have voted differently had we but known", but that is a rewrite of history.
There were lots and lots of people who said Brexit was a bad idea for lots and lots of reasons, and still the Great British public voted to "kick out the foreigners"
There are no good reasons for Brexit
It's all damage control, although BoZo is out of control and Cummings wants maximum damage.
Did anyone who voted leave actually have this current scenario in mind when they cast their ballot. The future of the UK being horse traded with a party that received 292,000 total votes in the last election. We've lost our minds.
Wot, you just realised?
Lost economic opportunity - check. Fraying the Union - check. Absorbs all political energy whatsoever - check. Weakens our influence abroad - check. Licenses far right and xenophobic discourse - check.
Brexit is a bin fire.
But we should probably leave because we voted for it, unless for some reason we decide to vote against it.
Did anyone who voted leave actually have this current scenario in mind when they cast their ballot. The future of the UK being horse traded with a party that received 292,000 total votes in the last election. We've lost our minds.
Which is why we need a GE.
Amusingly the DUP are burning away long term Conservative support for NI.
It was the will of the people that this Parliament goes for five years.
Why do you hate democracy that you want to overturn the will of the people?
Did anyone who voted leave actually have this current scenario in mind when they cast their ballot. The future of the UK being horse traded with a party that received 292,000 total votes in the last election. We've lost our minds.
There was a government majority when the referendum was held.
Referring to our Prime Minister as "Johnson" on Newsnight sounds pointed - and petty. I wonder if they would refer to the popular singer "Ciccone" and not thought to be a wanker?
People moaning about him being called Boris is tiresome, and generally pretty insulting to the public for the supposed benefits it grants him, but I don't know that objecting to him being called by his last name is that different.
Er, have you met a lot of people?
In fairness, no to AV's strategy of 'you are too stupid to understand AV' worked, so telling people they are dumb can work.
I think being known by his first name (actually his second name, but you know what I mean) is an advantage. Who do we tend to call
Maybe its weird sh.
The brain does not work in a rational, logical way at all. Most of our thinking is done on autopilot through loose connections, and being known by a first name rather than surname will have a (pretty small) positive impact at the ballot box.
It doesnt mean we have the brains of a cuttlefish, man.
Dress it up all ll him.
I am not at all insulted to have learned that the human brain is not particularly logical or rational. It is one of the reasons we are terrible at instinctive probabilities or having consistent preferences. The flip side is it allows us to do complex tasks like drive without "thinking" about it.
If people are insulted so be it, its not always a reason not to say something that is true.
I doubt it is true but my point was if it's true or not Boris's opponents should not whinge about it as some do - it wont prevent it happening and looks petty as hell, and makes them look lacking in confidence
And the insult is the idea we cannot overcome our lizard brain impulses when it comes to voting.
You are misunderstanding what the brain does and does not do. Lizards and cuttlefish are not capable of driving on instinct. The human brain is incredibly sophisticated. It is just not rational and logical as those qualities are not as important for the species as things like pattern recognition.
So either we've almost got a Brexit deal or Tony Connelly has lost his reputation. I'm thinking the former is more likely. I like the optics of Boris and the DUP taking it to the wire, it means if/when the DUP agree surely no Spartans will have any objections on the approved Northern Irish customs scenario. Similarly it means Boris does not have to be in Brussels backslapping Merkel today with a deal settled which be a harmful image to those who accuse him of selling out.
The best way for a deal to pass is to work through the night, present it in time for the Friday papers/breakfast news and then you don't give the media/opposition as much of a chance to pick it apart and throw forward whatever pre-determined objections they might have in a last ditch attempt to erode support before it is debated on Saturday.
Did anyone who voted leave actually have this current scenario in mind when they cast their ballot. The future of the UK being horse traded with a party that received 292,000 total votes in the last election. We've lost our minds.
Which is why we need a GE.
Amusingly the DUP are burning away long term Conservative support for NI.
It was the will of the people that this Parliament goes for five years.
Why do you hate democracy that you want to overturn the will of the people?
I really wish those people who want a general election could explain to me how the current Parliament is not representing the very split opinions of the general public.
And how any general election is going to fix this situation when most plausible results look very similar to Parliament as it currently is.
Time for Boris Johnson to tell the DUP that No Deal will see him deliver an Irish unification referendum.
It's too late - once they've already stated their position they get too embarrassed to change it, afraid of looking weak.
Just a point - Sky are emphasising the DUP will not support the deal as it stands and continue discussions with the government.
I think this heading for a delay in the deal to next week, Boris complying with the Benn act, and the EU refusing to make a decision on any extension before then
The poor can is in for another round of kicking down the road it seems.
Did anyone who voted leave actually have this current scenario in mind when they cast their ballot. The future of the UK being horse traded with a party that received 292,000 total votes in the last election. We've lost our minds.
Which is why we need a GE.
Amusingly the DUP are burning away long term Conservative support for NI.
It was the will of the people that this Parliament goes for five years.
Why do you hate democracy that you want to overturn the will of the people?
So any GE which was held before 5 years was against the 'will of the people' by your 'reasoning' ?
Did anyone who voted leave actually have this current scenario in mind when they cast their ballot. The future of the UK being horse traded with a party that received 292,000 total votes in the last election. We've lost our minds.
Based on a deal negotiated by a PM elected by a total of 92,153 people.
The DUP are supported by 3 times as many people who voted for Boris.
Did anyone who voted leave actually have this current scenario in mind when they cast their ballot. The future of the UK being horse traded with a party that received 292,000 total votes in the last election. We've lost our minds.
Yes. All of them. All of them wargamed the possible scenarios before they voted Leave and this was probably their central case.
So either we've almost got a Brexit deal or Tony Connelly has lost his reputation. I'm thinking the former is more likely. I like the optics of Boris and the DUP taking it to the wire, it means if/when the DUP agree surely no Spartans will have any objections on the approved Northern Irish customs scenario. Similarly it means Boris does not have to be in Brussels backslapping Merkel today with a deal settled which be a harmful image to those who accuse him of selling out.
The best way for a deal to pass is to work through the night, present it in time for the Friday papers/breakfast news and then you don't give the media/opposition as much of a chance to pick it apart and throw forward whatever pre-determined objections they might have in a last ditch attempt to erode support before it is debated on Saturday.
Interestingly / surprisingly sterling is trading higher than it did 24 hours ago.
Speaking of which what happened to the people claiming that Boris wanted to crash sterling for his supposed hedge fund mates.
Did anyone who voted leave actually have this current scenario in mind when they cast their ballot. The future of the UK being horse traded with a party that received 292,000 total votes in the last election. We've lost our minds.
Which is why we need a GE.
Amusingly the DUP are burning away long term Conservative support for NI.
It was the will of the people that this Parliament goes for five years.
Why do you hate democracy that you want to overturn the will of the people?
I really wish those people who want a general election could explain to me how the current Parliament is not representing the very split opinions of the general public.
And how any general election is going to fix this situation when most plausible results look very similar to Parliament as it currently is.
The point is that far too many mps have resigned the party they were elected for and are refusing to stand in a by election for their seat. This is a zombie HOC
Did anyone who voted leave actually have this current scenario in mind when they cast their ballot. The future of the UK being horse traded with a party that received 292,000 total votes in the last election. We've lost our minds.
Which is why we need a GE.
Amusingly the DUP are burning away long term Conservative support for NI.
It was the will of the people that this Parliament goes for five years.
Why do you hate democracy that you want to overturn the will of the people?
So any GE which was held before 5 years was against the 'will of the people' by your 'reasoning' ?
No, because the law saying parliaments last 5 years is really new.
Seems a lot of emotional remain supporters here. The ones who ruled Boris out of wanting a deal, then they said it was a shit deal, then they said actually they were right and he can't get a deal. Talk about the remainer Hokey Cokey. A word of advice, sometimes it's not best to jump to conclusions and wait to see how things pan out.
Did anyone who voted leave actually have this current scenario in mind when they cast their ballot. The future of the UK being horse traded with a party that received 292,000 total votes in the last election. We've lost our minds.
Yes it's called democracy. It's the same mantra as those who witter on ad nauseam about "respecting the result" use. Curiously, the same vitriol that is heaped on Labour, LD and ex-Conservative MPs for blocking the beloved Brexit is never applied to the ERG and DUP MPs who have done as much if not more to frustrate a conclusion to the A50 process.
Big_G said: "I hope the EU provide a technical extention or for a GE but refuse a lengthy delay."
I think this is the most likely outcome. BJ will miss his 31/10 pledge but he`ll say that it is just a technical extension to finalise a deal he has fashioned and therefore he hasn`t gone back on his pledge in a meaningful way.
Trying to bounce this deal through parliament may just work.
Campaigning for this deal in an election sounds like a nightmare for him. The attack lines are obvious and already teed up, both BXP and rebel alliance can just use his own words back at him.
Did anyone who voted leave actually have this current scenario in mind when they cast their ballot. The future of the UK being horse traded with a party that received 292,000 total votes in the last election. We've lost our minds.
Which is why we need a GE.
Amusingly the DUP are burning away long term Conservative support for NI.
It was the will of the people that this Parliament goes for five years.
Why do you hate democracy that you want to overturn the will of the people?
I really wish those people who want a general election could explain to me how the current Parliament is not representing the very split opinions of the general public.
And how any general election is going to fix this situation when most plausible results look very similar to Parliament as it currently is.
I love how those people who don't want any change always claim that a GE would produce no change.
Or are you scared that it would produce change one way or another ?
Did anyone who voted leave actually have this current scenario in mind when they cast their ballot. The future of the UK being horse traded with a party that received 292,000 total votes in the last election. We've lost our minds.
Which is why we need a GE.
Amusingly the DUP are burning away long term Conservative support for NI.
It was the will of the people that this Parliament goes for five years.
Why do you hate democracy that you want to overturn the will of the people?
I really wish those people who want a general election could explain to me how the current Parliament is not representing the very split opinions of the general public.
And how any general election is going to fix this situation when most plausible results look very similar to Parliament as it currently is.
The point is that far too many mps have resigned the party they were elected for and are refusing to stand in a by election for their seat. This is a zombie HOC
MPs do not represent their party, they represent their constituency as individuals. There is a long, and healthy, tradition of MPs resigning from their party and staying in the HoC. It is not unusual.
I would be very surprised if given the DUP's careful language that a deal will fall through now over some VAT issues. Seems to be just a bit of wiggling is required and we'll have something to vote on in parliament. It's telling that those willing to not want a deal to surface are almost certainly those who profit from Brexit dragging on for another 3 yerars.
So the straw clutching and the theatre goes on. The DUP have explicitly rejected the new WA as it stands but of course that's a ploy to try to wring further concessions from Johnson. The problem with that is as he closes one front another opens - back to the plate spinner acts of the 70s.
I would be very surprised if given the DUP's careful language that a deal will fall through now over some VAT issues. Seems to be just a bit of wiggling is required and we'll have something to vote on in parliament. It's telling that those willing to not want a deal to surface are almost certainly those who profit from Brexit dragging on for another 3 yerars.
You do wonder if this is being wargamed.
DUP saying no puts pressure on Boris but also on the EU and actually may help Boris in his negotiations over the next couple of days.
Did anyone who voted leave actually have this current scenario in mind when they cast their ballot. The future of the UK being horse traded with a party that received 292,000 total votes in the last election. We've lost our minds.
Which is why we need a GE.
Amusingly the DUP are burning away long term Conservative support for NI.
It was the will of the people that this Parliament goes for five years.
Why do you hate democracy that you want to overturn the will of the people?
So any GE which was held before 5 years was against the 'will of the people' by your 'reasoning' ?
No, because the law saying parliaments last 5 years is really new.
A law created because it suited the purposes of the government at that time ie to lock in a stable government majority.
I grew up with my cousin who was Downs, he sadly died recently in his fifties. It was hurtful at the time, being used often when we were playing out in the early 70s, but thankfully the use of “mong” as an insult is now rarely heard. All the more shameful that a PB poster thinks it is still acceptable as was seen earlier this morning.
I would be very surprised if given the DUP's careful language that a deal will fall through now over some VAT issues. Seems to be just a bit of wiggling is required and we'll have something to vote on in parliament. It's telling that those willing to not want a deal to surface are almost certainly those who profit from Brexit dragging on for another 3 yerars.
As long as the EU (and Ireland) are willing to make yet another concession to the DUP, which they may be unwilling to do.
Such a dumb "point" by Biden. It comes from the money that individuals and businesses don't have to spend on private medical insurance. How the hell the richest nation on Earth can't figure out a way to deliver universal healthcare is completey beyond me. Maybe the country is full of selfish arseholes?
Do you really imagine that eliminating employer healthcare would see that money automatically go to employees (or straight to the government) ? It isn't entirely strange that those who have decent healthcare insurance in the US are quite attached to it, and suspicious that a complete upheaval of the system might leave them worse off. The polling bears that out, with the electorate split around 50:50 over Medicare for All. In contrast, around three quarters favour the public option.
While I agree entirely with you on the desirability of universal healthcare, the route to it in the US is far from clearcut.
If it were the sole issue the liberal wing of the party was arguing for then it might have a very good chance indeed - but it is only one of many radical changes being proposed, and absent a Democratic landslide, only one or two of them will get anywhere in Congress.
I grew up with my cousin who was Downs, he sadly died recently in his fifties. It was hurtful at the time, being used often when we were playing out in the early 70s, but thankfully the use of “mong” as an insult is now rarely heard. All the more shameful that a PB poster thinks it is still acceptable as was seen earlier this morning.
I did not see the post but I whole heartedly agree with you
Did anyone who voted leave actually have this current scenario in mind when they cast their ballot. The future of the UK being horse traded with a party that received 292,000 total votes in the last election. We've lost our minds.
Which is why we need a GE.
Amusingly the DUP are burning away long term Conservative support for NI.
It was the will of the people that this Parliament goes for five years.
Why do you hate democracy that you want to overturn the will of the people?
So any GE which was held before 5 years was against the 'will of the people' by your 'reasoning' ?
No, because the law saying parliaments last 5 years is really new.
A law created because it suited the purposes of the government at that time ie to lock in a stable government majority.
Which is the opposite of what we have now.
Then people should have voted for parties that had the removal of the FTPA in their manifesto. And the parliament, that is the democratically elected body representing the people, can repeal it any time they want.
Do you think every country where no majority party rule occurs just has a new GE every time? Some countries force compromise. Some countries just don't have functioning legislatures for years on end. That is also part of democracy too.
The DUP are totally screwed if their actions cause a no deal . As for Johnson well hard to go into EU blame mood when it’s the DUP that have pulled the plug .
There will be no no deal.
This painful process is simply the UK trying to find a majority in Parliament for a deal —- and we are learning this morning if we hadn’t realised already — that this likely requires an election.
The Tories are doing incredibly well in the pollsThe Tories are doing incredibly well in the polls, and Labour incredibly badly, so a deal is really just one general election away.
To be more accurate 'The Tories are doing incredibly well in some polls'.
I would be very surprised if given the DUP's careful language that a deal will fall through now over some VAT issues. Seems to be just a bit of wiggling is required and we'll have something to vote on in parliament. It's telling that those willing to not want a deal to surface are almost certainly those who profit from Brexit dragging on for another 3 yerars.
You do wonder if this is being wargamed.
DUP saying no puts pressure on Boris but also on the EU and actually may help Boris in his negotiations over the next couple of days.
Politics hey
I have little doubt. What good is delivering a deal early in a the week and leaving windows of opportunity for Grieve/Corbyn/Sturgeon to take over the airwaves and voice their discontent. Use all the time you have to ensure it is fairly watertight and make it appear to be a compromise that took nights of hard grafting. The DUP will gain respect in NI for appearing to gain concessions and not wilt too easily and Boris will look like someone unwilling to ride roughshod over the Good Friday Agreement.
If this is what is happening then Boris's approach is cunning, pragmatic and gives a deal the best chance possible.
The respected journalists who appear to think a deal is there on the table surely cannot all be wrong, can they?...
Comments
With regard to the next LP Leader betting, what I can`t get a handle on is the current balance of the LP membership.
The outflow of memebers since 2017 has been reported, but it would be good to know whether this has altered the balance of hard-left membership v moderates.
Without knowing this it is difficult to form a view on the result of a run-off between (say) Long Bailey v Starmer, or Pidcock v Cooper etc.
It doesnt mean we have the brains of a cuttlefish, there are good reasons why our brains work in this way, it has helped us far more than a purely logical brain of the same size would. I suggest reading "Thinking Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman.
What an utter fool he was to expel all those moderate MPs.
I think this heading for a delay in the deal to next week, Boris complying with the Benn act, and the EU refusing to make a decision on any extension before then
Correct me if I'm wrong but the ERG are mostly onboard.
The deal is being "torpedoed" by the Labour, SNP and Lib Dem parties.
The "moderate" MPs are entirely free to vote for it
You may be right, but I think Long-Bailey is favourite. She`s awful obviously. Would be great result for the Tories.
Labour would choose Starmer if they had any sense.
They are overplaying their hand and their unpopularity as evidenced in the polls is going to continue
Also probably no hermon.
Boris the clown is a good thing when people are happy witness the Olympics with Boris as London mayor, it might not be so good when selling a bad deal.
We aren't in the ECB and wouldn't have left the ECJ de facto.
If people are insulted so be it, its not always a reason not to say something that is true.
If Johnson could command the votes of his own party and his DUP allies, then this would pass. He can't.
https://twitter.com/PCollinsTimes/status/1184731652272132101
https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1184296664753983488
They want their options open. If they want us out they can force us to deal or revoke. Yet before Boris tried to negotiate we were clearly told to expect extension.
a) The DUP intends to remain in all circumstances. This overrides all other considerations.
b) Boris's priorities are
1 Stay PM (that's the one which overrides all others)
2 Remain if possible. (He is getting plenty of help with this from his enemies).
or
Leave with a deal before an election
3 But under no circumstances leave without a deal before a GE, as of course a GE in the chaos following such an event may well be lost. (He is getting plenty of help with this from the Benn Act.)
Assume that nothing anyone says is true unless and until their final deeds match their words.
If its to be a woman then Jess Phillips would be an intriguing choice which could work either succeed or fail spectacularly but is unlikely to be dull. None of the other women below 100 on betfair would be a credible leader.
Furthermore, it cannot be predicted how it pans out and in a narrow win for remain do we have the best of three
I hope the EU provide a technical extention or for a GE but refuse a lengthy delay.
Indeed I very much doubt the French and others want us anywhere near the EU for the next six months and beyond
I hope she’s got settled status.
She even got her own act of parliament - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sophia_Naturalization_Act_1705
Amusingly the DUP are burning away long term Conservative support for NI.
So I agree with you that Long-Bailey is favorite. Once the Momentum machinery gets behind her, and the remainder of Labour MPs opposed to Corbyn come out in favour of someone else, then the post 2015 membership of the Labour Party will very quickly get behind her.
There were lots and lots of people who said Brexit was a bad idea for lots and lots of reasons, and still the Great British public voted to "kick out the foreigners"
There are no good reasons for Brexit
It's all damage control, although BoZo is out of control and Cummings wants maximum damage.
Lost economic opportunity - check.
Fraying the Union - check.
Absorbs all political energy whatsoever - check.
Weakens our influence abroad - check.
Licenses far right and xenophobic discourse - check.
Brexit is a bin fire.
But we should probably leave because we voted for it, unless for some reason we decide to vote against it.
Why do you hate democracy that you want to overturn the will of the people?
The best way for a deal to pass is to work through the night, present it in time for the Friday papers/breakfast news and then you don't give the media/opposition as much of a chance to pick it apart and throw forward whatever pre-determined objections they might have in a last ditch attempt to erode support before it is debated on Saturday.
And how any general election is going to fix this situation when most plausible results look very similar to Parliament as it currently is.
The DUP are supported by 3 times as many people who voted for Boris.
Speaking of which what happened to the people claiming that Boris wanted to crash sterling for his supposed hedge fund mates.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1184463451688722432
A word of advice, sometimes it's not best to jump to conclusions and wait to see how things pan out.
I think this is the most likely outcome. BJ will miss his 31/10 pledge but he`ll say that it is just a technical extension to finalise a deal he has fashioned and therefore he hasn`t gone back on his pledge in a meaningful way.
Campaigning for this deal in an election sounds like a nightmare for him. The attack lines are obvious and already teed up, both BXP and rebel alliance can just use his own words back at him.
Or are you scared that it would produce change one way or another ?
DUP saying no puts pressure on Boris but also on the EU and actually may help Boris in his negotiations over the next couple of days.
Politics hey
Which is the opposite of what we have now.
It was the biggest unicorn of all. A fantasy of the more lunatic Leavers and always a fake bargaining chip. Much anxiety needlessly caused.
But on the plus side, a fantastic betting earner. I laid it almost weekly for a year and did not lose a moment of sleep.
Who profits for another 3 years of limbo?
It isn't entirely strange that those who have decent healthcare insurance in the US are quite attached to it, and suspicious that a complete upheaval of the system might leave them worse off. The polling bears that out, with the electorate split around 50:50 over Medicare for All. In contrast, around three quarters favour the public option.
While I agree entirely with you on the desirability of universal healthcare, the route to it in the US is far from clearcut.
If it were the sole issue the liberal wing of the party was arguing for then it might have a very good chance indeed - but it is only one of many radical changes being proposed, and absent a Democratic landslide, only one or two of them will get anywhere in Congress.
Do you think every country where no majority party rule occurs just has a new GE every time? Some countries force compromise. Some countries just don't have functioning legislatures for years on end. That is also part of democracy too.
If this is what is happening then Boris's approach is cunning, pragmatic and gives a deal the best chance possible.
The respected journalists who appear to think a deal is there on the table surely cannot all be wrong, can they?...