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  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,587

    Saying you have a workaround to the Benn Act that means you can deliver Brexit on 31st October and then not having a workaround is not going to be a great look.

    No it isn’t. But saying you have a workaround to the Benn Act that means you can deliver Brexit on 31st October and then actually having a workaround is a bloody great look.

    We shall have to wait and see....
    I suspect he has had assurances from Hungary that they will veto an extension. Could be interesting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,336

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    New poll out on Trump impeachment .

    Should the house try and impeach Trump .

    Yes 50%

    No 39%

    If the House impeaches should the Senate vote to remove Trump from office .

    Yes 51%

    No 38%

    Not according to 538...

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-has-the-ukraine-scandal-affected-trumps-approval-rating/
    'If you look only at high-quality polls3 of Trump’s approval rating before and after news of the Ukraine scandal broke,4 there’s actually been little change in Trump’s popularity (if anything, it has ticked slightly up).'

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-has-the-ukraine-scandal-affected-trumps-approval-rating/
    Exactly. 'Slightly ticked up' is not 'surges to highest level of 2019' quoted in The Hill tweet.

    In any event, there have been two further HarrisX (rated only C+ by 538) polls since the one quoted, showing Trump's approval rating dropping to 47% then 45%.
    So matching his 2016 popular voteshare then when he won the EC
    I wouldn't be putting money on him to win next year with the economy stalling, scandals swirling around him and his mental health clearly deteriorating.

    Then again, I didn't believe he would win in 2016!
    I would not count on him losing either, as left liberal opponents of Nixon, Reagan and W Bush's re election found to their cost
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 35,398
    edited October 2019

    Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    Revoke has always been unacceptable to a majority of MPs.

    When Hungary vetoes any extension, that becomes EU policy.

    MPs then vote on whatever deal Boris has landed - or No Deal.

    We know they won't No Deal.

    The potential prize is booting Boris and then taking the glory of passing the deal he has negotiated. I see no majority for doing that.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,263
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    They could but Boris would win the next election by a landslide if they did
    On the other hand the Tories will be toast in a GE following No Deal.
    No, the Brexit Party would collapse in the Tories favour as all the polls show with Labour and the LDs dividing the Remain vote leading to a big Tory win.

    The only way the Tories would be toast is if they refuse to commit to deliver Brexit and the Brexit Party overtake them
    That surely depends on the severity of any impact of No Deal?
    Even if it went badly the main beneficiaries would be the LDs not Corbyn Labour given most Remainers are now voting LD
    It doesn't really matter who the main beneficiaries are. If people are, for example, queuing for diesel during a GE campaign due to No Deal the Tories will be decimated.
    No it would be Labour decimated, diehard Leavers would still vote Tory as they are ideologically committed to Brexit and those seeking to reverse Brexit would go LD leaving Labour squeezed in the middle
    Very few people are ideologically committed to Brexit, imo. There will be no blitz spirit or willingness to tolerate serious incovenience, let alone hardship. Boris knows this perfectly well.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,587

    Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    Revoke has always been unacceptable to a majority of MPs.

    When Hungary vetoes any extension, that becomes EU policy.

    MPs then vote on whatever deal Boris has landed - or No Deal.

    We know they won't No Deal.

    The potential prize is booting Boris and then taking the glory of passing the deal he has negotiated. I see no majority for doing that.
    What if the EU don't agree Boris's deal?
  • On topic, it's hard to see what Stewart's pitch is. He doesn't live in London and isn't from London as far as I know. He's not shown any great interest in the city and its problems. He's a nice reasonable chap, but so is Khan. He doesn't seem to have any real advantage in the areas, like crime, where Khan might be vulnerable. He has baggage from his time as Tory MP that can be exploited, and while he has walked away from the Tory Party now, just a few weeks ago he wanted to lead it. It feels a little bit entitled, just pitching up in London and saying he should be Mayor. It feels like it's more about him than about London.

    He knows a hell of a lot about dealing with crime than Sadiq Khan ever will - Khan has been a massive failure on this. Take a look at Rory's Wiki page (especially the section on Minister for Prisons).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rory_Stewart
    The mayor of London runs policing not prisons.
  • HYUFD said:

    Saying you have a workaround to the Benn Act that means you can deliver Brexit on 31st October and then not having a workaround is not going to be a great look.

    They do have, Hungary will veto extension if the EU does not accept the Boris proposed Deal, hence the Hungarian Foreign Minister was in No 10 yesterday

    I think he was in the Foreign Office, not Number 10. We’ll see what happens, but we would have to be giving the Hungarians a hell of a lot to compensate for what the EU could take away!

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    If we don't leave on the 31st October it's possible support for both the Brexit Party and the Conservatives will increase in the polls.
  • Saying you have a workaround to the Benn Act that means you can deliver Brexit on 31st October and then not having a workaround is not going to be a great look.

    No it isn’t. But saying you have a workaround to the Benn Act that means you can deliver Brexit on 31st October and then actually having a workaround is a bloody great look.

    We shall have to wait and see....

    We will indeed.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 35,398
    If the Govt. is in receipt of written confirmation that there can be no further EU extension before mid October, is the Benn Act effectively void ab initio?
  • The mayor of London runs policing not prisons.

    Very true. The two are related, especially in terms of initiatives to reduce offending/re-offending, which is exactly the point.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Steve Baker trailing a big announcement tomorrow. We will see.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,086
    edited October 2019

    Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    Revoke has always been unacceptable to a majority of MPs.

    When Hungary vetoes any extension, that becomes EU policy.

    MPs then vote on whatever deal Boris has landed - or No Deal.

    We know they won't No Deal.

    The potential prize is booting Boris and then taking the glory of passing the deal he has negotiated. I see no majority for doing that.
    What if the EU don't agree Boris's deal?
    HYUFDs point is actually interesting. Maybe not an outright veto but veto if deal isn’t passed. Nothing wrong with UK government negotiating that.

    And isn’t international diplomacy a Royal prerogative thing? That’s a guess.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,336
    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    They could but Boris would win the next election by a landslide if they did
    On the other hand the Tories will be toast in a GE following No Deal.
    No, the Brexit Party would collapse in the Tories favour as all the polls show with Labour and the LDs dividing the Remain vote leading to a big Tory win.

    The only way the Tories would be toast is if they refuse to commit to deliver Brexit and the Brexit Party overtake them
    That surely depends on the severity of any impact of No Deal?
    Even if it went badly the main beneficiaries would be the LDs not Corbyn Labour given most Remainers are now voting LD
    It doesn't really matter who the main beneficiaries are. If people are, for example, queuing for diesel during a GE campaign due to No Deal the Tories will be decimated.
    No it would be Labour decimated, diehard Leavers would still vote Tory as they are ideologically committed to Brexit and those seeking to reverse Brexit would go LD leaving Labour squeezed in the middle
    Very few people are ideologically committed to Brexit, imo. There will be no blitz spirit or willingness to tolerate serious incovenience, let alone hardship. Boris knows this perfectly well.
    That was the same argument which said voters would prioritise the economy over sovereignty and reducing immigration in the referendum.

    Diehard Remainers underestimate the strength of commitment of Brexiteers at their peril
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 35,398

    HYUFD said:

    Saying you have a workaround to the Benn Act that means you can deliver Brexit on 31st October and then not having a workaround is not going to be a great look.

    They do have, Hungary will veto extension if the EU does not accept the Boris proposed Deal, hence the Hungarian Foreign Minister was in No 10 yesterday

    I think he was in the Foreign Office, not Number 10. We’ll see what happens, but we would have to be giving the Hungarians a hell of a lot to compensate for what the EU could take away!

    He was supposedly present at Cabinet. As I asked hours ago, was it a political Cabinet?

    We don't seem to have much information on this, but it has always been the obvious way for Boris to get out a hole....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,336
    edited October 2019

    Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    Revoke has always been unacceptable to a majority of MPs.

    When Hungary vetoes any extension, that becomes EU policy.

    MPs then vote on whatever deal Boris has landed - or No Deal.

    We know they won't No Deal.

    The potential prize is booting Boris and then taking the glory of passing the deal he has negotiated. I see no majority for doing that.
    What if the EU don't agree Boris's deal?
    Then the EU can be blamed for No Deal given Boris will likely get his Deal through Parliament
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 27,196
    edited October 2019

    If the Govt. is in receipt of written confirmation that there can be no further EU extension before mid October, is the Benn Act effectively void ab initio?

    There is zero chance of that. The EU will respond to a request, they won't formally preempt it. Of course individual politicians might say they'd support an extension or not, but this new Leaver enthusiasm for clutching at EU-provided straws does seem rather, well, desperate, does it not? And just think - how bad is it going to look if not only Boris is responsible for a no-deal crash-out, with all the attendant chaos, but is also seen to have done it against the will of parliament by colluding with dodgy foreign leaders?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,690
    AndyJS said:

    If we don't leave on the 31st October it's possible support for both the Brexit Party and the Conservatives will increase in the polls.

    Brexit Party defintely goes up. Con probably goes down a bit.

    But during an election campaign Con will quickly recover any loses to Brexit as Leavers will understand the choice before them quite clearly - which will be Brexit can only be secured under Boris. Any other outcome leads to remain.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,086

    If the Govt. is in receipt of written confirmation that there can be no further EU extension before mid October, is the Benn Act effectively void ab initio?

    There is zero chance of that. The EU will respond to a request, they won't formally preempt it. Of course individual politicians might say they'd support an extension or not, but this new Leave enthusiasm for clutching at EU-provided straws does seem rather, well, desperate, does it not?
    They may have asked already.
  • Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    Revoke has always been unacceptable to a majority of MPs.

    When Hungary vetoes any extension, that becomes EU policy.

    MPs then vote on whatever deal Boris has landed - or No Deal.

    We know they won't No Deal.

    The potential prize is booting Boris and then taking the glory of passing the deal he has negotiated. I see no majority for doing that.

    He hasn’t negotiated a deal.

  • If Hungary doesn’t veto now, it’s going to get a lot of hate from the Brexit loons!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,690

    Steve Baker trailing a big announcement tomorrow. We will see.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,587
    HYUFD said:

    Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    Revoke has always been unacceptable to a majority of MPs.

    When Hungary vetoes any extension, that becomes EU policy.

    MPs then vote on whatever deal Boris has landed - or No Deal.

    We know they won't No Deal.

    The potential prize is booting Boris and then taking the glory of passing the deal he has negotiated. I see no majority for doing that.
    What if the EU don't agree Boris's deal?
    Then the EU can be blamed for No Deal given Boris will likely get his Deal through Parliament
    I don't think voters who can't fill their cars will see it that way.

    Academic anyway - we all know we're going to end up Remaining. :lol:
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 35,398

    If the Govt. is in receipt of written confirmation that there can be no further EU extension before mid October, is the Benn Act effectively void ab initio?

    There is zero chance of that. The EU will respond to a request, they won't formally preempt it. Of course individual politicians might say they'd support an extension or not, but this new Leave enthusiasm for clutching at EU-provided straws does seem rather, well, desperate, does it not?
    If the Govt. is in receipt of a letter from the Hungarian Govt. saying it will veto any further extension of the current October 31st deadline, then there is 100% chance of that. Because by virtue of the required unanimity, it becomes the de facto EU position.

    The Govt. can happily say to the Scottish court that it will deliver the letter - if it knows that scenario can never apply.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,086

    If Hungary doesn’t veto now, it’s going to get a lot of hate from the Brexit loons!

    If they do there will be a lot of bed-wetting from remainer zealots 😉
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited October 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Saying you have a workaround to the Benn Act that means you can deliver Brexit on 31st October and then not having a workaround is not going to be a great look.

    They do have, Hungary will veto extension if the EU does not accept the Boris proposed Deal, hence the Hungarian Foreign Minister was in No 10 yesterday

    I think he was in the Foreign Office, not Number 10. We’ll see what happens, but we would have to be giving the Hungarians a hell of a lot to compensate for what the EU could take away!

    He was supposedly present at Cabinet. As I asked hours ago, was it a political Cabinet?

    We don't seem to have much information on this, but it has always been the obvious way for Boris to get out a hole....
    I don't want to dash your hopes but all sorts of politicians from all over the world have attended Cabinets in the past and will no doubt do so in the future. You usually only hear about larger countries representatives that are invited to attend Cabinet i.e. US vice president for instance.

    The Brexit supporting media are desperate to feed you stories that a) boost Brexit b) boost BJ and the Tories c) try to show a UK strategy. I don't believe any of it and it is a stupid game the Brexit supporting media are playing.... :wink:
  • HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    They could but Boris would win the next election by a landslide if they did
    On the other hand the Tories will be toast in a GE following No Deal.
    No, the Brexit Party would collapse in the Tories favour as all the polls show with Labour and the LDs dividing the Remain vote leading to a big Tory win.

    The only way the Tories would be toast is if they refuse to commit to deliver Brexit and the Brexit Party overtake them
    That surely depends on the severity of any impact of No Deal?
    Even if it went badly the main beneficiaries would be the LDs not Corbyn Labour given most Remainers are now voting LD
    It doesn't really matter who the main beneficiaries are. If people are, for example, queuing for diesel during a GE campaign due to No Deal the Tories will be decimated.
    No it would be Labour decimated, diehard Leavers would still vote Tory as they are ideologically committed to Brexit and those seeking to reverse Brexit would go LD leaving Labour squeezed in the middle
    Very few people are ideologically committed to Brexit, imo. There will be no blitz spirit or willingness to tolerate serious incovenience, let alone hardship. Boris knows this perfectly well.
    That was the same argument which said voters would prioritise the economy over sovereignty and reducing immigration in the referendum.

    Diehard Remainers underestimate the strength of commitment of Brexiteers at their peril
    It was sold as economically painless and even then only won 52%. The minute people start losing their jobs or can't fill up their cars the strength of commitment will dissipate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,336

    HYUFD said:

    Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    Revoke has always been unacceptable to a majority of MPs.

    When Hungary vetoes any extension, that becomes EU policy.

    MPs then vote on whatever deal Boris has landed - or No Deal.

    We know they won't No Deal.

    The potential prize is booting Boris and then taking the glory of passing the deal he has negotiated. I see no majority for doing that.
    What if the EU don't agree Boris's deal?
    Then the EU can be blamed for No Deal given Boris will likely get his Deal through Parliament
    I don't think voters who can't fill their cars will see it that way.

    Academic anyway - we all know we're going to end up Remaining. :lol:
    We are a net exporter of petrol and have more than enough to meet our needs and can get diesel from the USA and Russia
  • Re the Lords and the FTPA. 1. Any attempt by the Government will come immeadiately after a prorogation so the Lords' delaying powers would be at their height. As the point of the bill is speed that's a de facto veto. 2. It would be a Christmas Tree bill. 3. It would need to be very limited. The FTPA extinguished Crown Perogative which since the civil war can't be restored. So it either needs to be complete reform or very simple. The status quo ante isn't an option. 4. The government has no majority in the Commons so you need either the Lib Dems or the SNP to back it there before it even got to the Lords.

    Broadly the circumances in which a FTPA amendment Act got through while *also* the Commons refusing a supermajority for an early GE are very narrow. And it couldn't happen quickly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,336

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    They could but Boris would win the next election by a landslide if they did
    On the other hand the Tories will be toast in a GE following No Deal.
    No, the Brexit Party would collapse in the Tories favour as all the polls show with Labour and the LDs dividing the Remain vote leading to a big Tory win.

    The only way the Tories would be toast is if they refuse to commit to deliver Brexit and the Brexit Party overtake them
    That surely depends on the severity of any impact of No Deal?
    Even if it went badly the main beneficiaries would be the LDs not Corbyn Labour given most Remainers are now voting LD
    It doesn't really matter who the main beneficiaries are. If people are, for example, queuing for diesel during a GE campaign due to No Deal the Tories will be decimated.
    No it would be Labour decimated, diehard Leavers would still vote Tory as they are ideologically committed to Brexit and those seeking to reverse Brexit would go LD leaving Labour squeezed in the middle
    Very few people are ideologically committed to Brexit, imo. There will be no blitz spirit or willingness to tolerate serious incovenience, let alone hardship. Boris knows this perfectly well.
    That was the same argument which said voters would prioritise the economy over sovereignty and reducing immigration in the referendum.

    Diehard Remainers underestimate the strength of commitment of Brexiteers at their peril
    It was sold as economically painless and even then only won 52%. The minute people start losing their jobs or can't fill up their cars the strength of commitment will dissipate.
    Most people won't lose their jobs, only 8% of UK businesses export directly to the EU
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,945
    edited October 2019
    I think there is a degree of naivety in thinking Hungary will ride to the rescue.

    The Hungarian government has their own motivations, and ultimately will do what makes sense for them, not what we (or the ERG or Boris Johnson) want.

    As a country they are a significant recipient of EU funds, and their current account benefits hugely from remittances from citizens working abroad, in the, errrr... EU.

    For them to veto something that everyone else was on board with, precipitating a No Deal Brexit would put them in a very difficult position. What they want, I suspect, is to be bought off by the EU: extra regional development funds, or somesuch. They also have their own battles with the EU over various things - if they can get the EU off their back about (say) the rule of law, then they would probably drop us like third period French.

    They are, I would suggest, the DUP of the EU. They know how to maneavuer for maximum gain. They might be our allies sometimes. They might frustrate us at other times. But they're only ever doing what works for them.
  • If Hungary doesn’t veto now, it’s going to get a lot of hate from the Brexit loons!

    If they do there will be a lot of bed-wetting from remainer zealots 😉

    No, I suspect their ire will be more directed at Johnson and his conspiring with a foreign power to inflict harm on the UK.

  • HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    They could but Boris would win the next election by a landslide if they did
    On the other hand the Tories will be toast in a GE following No Deal.
    No, the Brexit Party would collapse in the Tories favour as all the polls show with Labour and the LDs dividing the Remain vote leading to a big Tory win.

    The only way the Tories would be toast is if they refuse to commit to deliver Brexit and the Brexit Party overtake them
    That surely depends on the severity of any impact of No Deal?
    Even if it went badly the main beneficiaries would be the LDs not Corbyn Labour given most Remainers are now voting LD
    It doesn't really matter who the main beneficiaries are. If people are, for example, queuing for diesel during a GE campaign due to No Deal the Tories will be decimated.
    No it would be Labour decimated, diehard Leavers would still vote Tory as they are ideologically committed to Brexit and those seeking to reverse Brexit would go LD leaving Labour squeezed in the middle
    Very few people are ideologically committed to Brexit, imo. There will be no blitz spirit or willingness to tolerate serious incovenience, let alone hardship. Boris knows this perfectly well.
    That was the same argument which said voters would prioritise the economy over sovereignty and reducing immigration in the referendum.

    Diehard Remainers underestimate the strength of commitment of Brexiteers at their peril
    But you never voted Leave!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,587
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    Revoke has always been unacceptable to a majority of MPs.

    When Hungary vetoes any extension, that becomes EU policy.

    MPs then vote on whatever deal Boris has landed - or No Deal.

    We know they won't No Deal.

    The potential prize is booting Boris and then taking the glory of passing the deal he has negotiated. I see no majority for doing that.
    What if the EU don't agree Boris's deal?
    Then the EU can be blamed for No Deal given Boris will likely get his Deal through Parliament
    I don't think voters who can't fill their cars will see it that way.

    Academic anyway - we all know we're going to end up Remaining. :lol:
    We are a net exporter of petrol and have more than enough to meet our needs and can get diesel from the USA and Russia
    My prediction is delivery to the filling stations will be a problem, once hauliers are hit by Brexit delays and start motorway protests.

    Anyway, this saga will run a few weeks more yet.

    Night all!
  • HYUFD said:

    Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    Revoke has always been unacceptable to a majority of MPs.

    When Hungary vetoes any extension, that becomes EU policy.

    MPs then vote on whatever deal Boris has landed - or No Deal.

    We know they won't No Deal.

    The potential prize is booting Boris and then taking the glory of passing the deal he has negotiated. I see no majority for doing that.
    What if the EU don't agree Boris's deal?
    Then the EU can be blamed for No Deal given Boris will likely get his Deal through Parliament

    Yep, it’s all about the blame. Johnson will get his No Deal at some point and his election victory. Then what?

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 27,196
    edited October 2019

    If the Govt. is in receipt of a letter from the Hungarian Govt. saying it will veto any further extension of the current October 31st deadline, then there is 100% chance of that. Because by virtue of the required unanimity, it becomes the de facto EU position.

    The Govt. can happily say to the Scottish court that it will deliver the letter - if it knows that scenario can never apply.

    Dunno about you, but I can't help feeling it would be somewhat naive to assume that a secret letter from Viktor Orbán would constitute a 100% certainty.

    But really - I appreciate that Brexit has driven people on both sides mad, and in particular the entire Conservative Party has utterly lost its marbles, but you really do need to sober up and have a cold shower if you seriously think it would be good politics to crash us out of the EU in chaos on the basis of a dodgy deal with a Hungarian populist. I mean, what has got into you? It's complete insanity: quite apart from the effect on the country, the effect on the party would be terminal.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,086
    edited October 2019

    If Hungary doesn’t veto now, it’s going to get a lot of hate from the Brexit loons!

    If they do there will be a lot of bed-wetting from remainer zealots 😉

    No, I suspect their ire will be more directed at Johnson and his conspiring with a foreign power to inflict harm on the UK.

    Absolutely. But I think everyone who cares, by-and-large , are already shepparded into the appropriate party political pens.

    Most of the population who aren’t engaged as us on here will just be glad it’s over and vote accordingly.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,690
    rcs1000 said:

    I think there is a degree of naivety in thinking Hungary will ride to the rescue.

    The Hungarian government has their own motivations, and ultimately will do what makes sense for them, not what we (or the ERG or Boris Johnson) want.



    Boris is in the mood for writing cheques at the moment. :D
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,587
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    They could but Boris would win the next election by a landslide if they did
    On the other hand the Tories will be toast in a GE following No Deal.
    No, the Brexit Party would collapse in the Tories favour as all the polls show with Labour and the LDs dividing the Remain vote leading to a big Tory win.

    The only way the Tories would be toast is if they refuse to commit to deliver Brexit and the Brexit Party overtake them
    That surely depends on the severity of any impact of No Deal?
    Even if it went badly the main beneficiaries would be the LDs not Corbyn Labour given most Remainers are now voting LD
    It doesn't really matter who the main beneficiaries are. If people are, for example, queuing for diesel during a GE campaign due to No Deal the Tories will be decimated.
    No it would be Labour decimated, diehard Leavers would still vote Tory as they are ideologically committed to Brexit and those seeking to reverse Brexit would go LD leaving Labour squeezed in the middle
    Very few people are ideologically committed to Brexit, imo. There will be no blitz spirit or willingness to tolerate serious incovenience, let alone hardship. Boris knows this perfectly well.
    That was the same argument which said voters would prioritise the economy over sovereignty and reducing immigration in the referendum.

    Diehard Remainers underestimate the strength of commitment of Brexiteers at their peril
    It was sold as economically painless and even then only won 52%. The minute people start losing their jobs or can't fill up their cars the strength of commitment will dissipate.
    Most people won't lose their jobs, only 8% of UK businesses export directly to the EU
    Oh that's alright then...

    Hard Brexit: most people won't lose their jobs! Hurrah!
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,086
    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I think there is a degree of naivety in thinking Hungary will ride to the rescue.

    The Hungarian government has their own motivations, and ultimately will do what makes sense for them, not what we (or the ERG or Boris Johnson) want.



    Boris is in the mood for writing cheques at the moment. :D
    Or a few bargain F35’s....aided by Mr Trump.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,336
    edited October 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    Revoke has always been unacceptable to a majority of MPs.

    When Hungary vetoes any extension, that becomes EU policy.

    MPs then vote on whatever deal Boris has landed - or No Deal.

    We know they won't No Deal.

    The potential prize is booting Boris and then taking the glory of passing the deal he has negotiated. I see no majority for doing that.
    What if the EU don't agree Boris's deal?
    Then the EU can be blamed for No Deal given Boris will likely get his Deal through Parliament

    Yep, it’s all about the blame. Johnson will get his No Deal at some point and his election victory. Then what?

    The Tories have won a historic 4th term and then either win an even more historic 5th term, something they have not done since Lord Liverpool was PM almost 200 years ago, or more likely the LDs win the election after that. Corbyn Labour will probably be third by then
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    They could but Boris would win the next election by a landslide if they did
    On the other hand the Tories will be toast in a GE following No Deal.
    No, the Brexit Party would collapse in the Tories favour as all the polls show with Labour and the LDs dividing the Remain vote leading to a big Tory win.

    The only way the Tories would be toast is if they refuse to commit to deliver Brexit and the Brexit Party overtake them
    That surely depends on the severity of any impact of No Deal?
    Even if it went badly the main beneficiaries would be the LDs not Corbyn Labour given most Remainers are now voting LD
    It doesn't really matter who the main beneficiaries are. If people are, for example, queuing for diesel during a GE campaign due to No Deal the Tories will be decimated.
    No it would be Labour decimated, diehard Leavers would still vote Tory as they are ideologically committed to Brexit and those seeking to reverse Brexit would go LD leaving Labour squeezed in the middle
    Very few people are ideologically committed to Brexit, imo. There will be no blitz spirit or willingness to tolerate serious incovenience, let alone hardship. Boris knows this perfectly well.
    That was the same argument which said voters would prioritise the economy over sovereignty and reducing immigration in the referendum.

    Diehard Remainers underestimate the strength of commitment of Brexiteers at their peril
    The only reason Brexit is such an issue is due to the Brexit supporting media. The DT, DE, DM and The Sun use it to sell papers and compete for the most shrill headlines i.e.Trators and the like. The Brexit supporting media is doing a grave disservice to its readership and given any sort of Brexit is a worse deal than we have at the moment. It is a terrible state of affairs, the real enemy from within is the Brexit supporting media...
  • rcs1000 said:

    I think there is a degree of naivety in thinking Hungary will ride to the rescue.

    The Hungarian government has their own motivations, and ultimately will do what makes sense for them, not what we (or the ERG or Boris Johnson) want.

    As a country they are a significant recipient of EU funds, and their current account benefits hugely from remittances from citizens working abroad, in the, errrr... EU.

    For them to veto something that everyone else was on board with, precipitating a No Deal Brexit would put them in a very difficult position. What they want, I suspect, is to be bought off by the EU: extra regional development funds, or somesuch. They also have their own battles with the EU over various things - if they can get the EU off their back about (say) the rule of law, then they would probably drop us like third period French.

    They are, I would suggest, the DUP of the EU. They know how to maneavuer for maximum gain. They might be our allies sometimes. They might frustrate us at other times. But they're only ever doing what works for them.

    Exactly - the UK’s offer to Hungary would have to be huge to compensate for what the EU could takeaway after the Hungarians have inflicted a No Deal on everyone.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,690
    edited October 2019

    If the Govt. is in receipt of a letter from the Hungarian Govt. saying it will veto any further extension of the current October 31st deadline, then there is 100% chance of that. Because by virtue of the required unanimity, it becomes the de facto EU position.

    The Govt. can happily say to the Scottish court that it will deliver the letter - if it knows that scenario can never apply.

    Dunno about you, but I can't help feeling it would be somewhat naive to assume that a secret letter from Viktor Orbán would constitute a 100% certainty.

    But really - I appreciate that Brexit has driven people on both sides mad, and in particular the entire Conservative Party has utterly lost its marbles, but you really do need to sober up and have a cold shower if you seriously think it would be good politics to crash us out of the EU in chaos on the basis of a dodgy deal with a Hungarian populist. I mean, what has got into you? It's complete insanity: quite apart from the effect on the country, the effect on the party would be terminal.
    As a nation we're basically at the point of civil war with the one big difference that no one has actually taken up arms or advocated violence (and hopefully never will)

    But otherwise everything else is pretty much like a civil war now including both sides thinking the unthinkable to win.

    Why is Leavers wanting a foreign power to veto an extension any worse than Remainers wanting to put the Prime Minister in prison?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    They could but Boris would win the next election by a landslide if they did
    On the other hand the Tories will be toast in a GE following No Deal.
    No, the Brexit Party would collapse in the Tories favour as all the polls show with Labour and the LDs dividing the Remain vote leading to a big Tory win.

    The only way the Tories would be toast is if they refuse to commit to deliver Brexit and the Brexit Party overtake them
    That surely depends on the severity of any impact of No Deal?
    Even if it went badly the main beneficiaries would be the LDs not Corbyn Labour given most Remainers are now voting LD
    It doesn't really matter who the main beneficiaries are. If people are, for example, queuing for diesel during a GE campaign due to No Deal the Tories will be decimated.
    No it would be Labour decimated, diehard Leavers would still vote Tory as they are ideologically committed to Brexit and those seeking to reverse Brexit would go LD leaving Labour squeezed in the middle
    Very few people are ideologically committed to Brexit, imo. There will be no blitz spirit or willingness to tolerate serious incovenience, let alone hardship. Boris knows this perfectly well.
    That was the same argument which said voters would prioritise the economy over sovereignty and reducing immigration in the referendum.

    Diehard Remainers underestimate the strength of commitment of Brexiteers at their peril
    It was sold as economically painless and even then only won 52%. The minute people start losing their jobs or can't fill up their cars the strength of commitment will dissipate.
    Most people won't lose their jobs, only 8% of UK businesses export directly to the EU.

    What percentage of the workforce do those 8% employ - and at what pay levels? Factories closing or slowing down has an impact way beyond those directly affected.

  • Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    Revoke has always been unacceptable to a majority of MPs.

    When Hungary vetoes any extension, that becomes EU policy.

    MPs then vote on whatever deal Boris has landed - or No Deal.

    We know they won't No Deal.

    The potential prize is booting Boris and then taking the glory of passing the deal he has negotiated. I see no majority for doing that.
    What if the EU don't agree Boris's deal?
    If Hungary vetoes the extension there'll be a lot of midnight oil being burnt trying to find a deal.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,975

    If the Govt. is in receipt of a letter from the Hungarian Govt. saying it will veto any further extension of the current October 31st deadline, then there is 100% chance of that. Because by virtue of the required unanimity, it becomes the de facto EU position.

    The Govt. can happily say to the Scottish court that it will deliver the letter - if it knows that scenario can never apply.

    Dunno about you, but I can't help feeling it would be somewhat naive to assume that a secret letter from Viktor Orbán would constitute a 100% certainty.

    But really - I appreciate that Brexit has driven people on both sides mad, and in particular the entire Conservative Party has utterly lost its marbles, but you really do need to sober up and have a cold shower if you seriously think it would be good politics to crash us out of the EU in chaos on the basis of a dodgy deal with a Hungarian populist. I mean, what has got into you? It's complete insanity: quite apart from the effect on the country, the effect on the party would be terminal.
    HYUFD’s part of the death cult now.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 35,398

    rcs1000 said:

    I think there is a degree of naivety in thinking Hungary will ride to the rescue.

    The Hungarian government has their own motivations, and ultimately will do what makes sense for them, not what we (or the ERG or Boris Johnson) want.

    As a country they are a significant recipient of EU funds, and their current account benefits hugely from remittances from citizens working abroad, in the, errrr... EU.

    For them to veto something that everyone else was on board with, precipitating a No Deal Brexit would put them in a very difficult position. What they want, I suspect, is to be bought off by the EU: extra regional development funds, or somesuch. They also have their own battles with the EU over various things - if they can get the EU off their back about (say) the rule of law, then they would probably drop us like third period French.

    They are, I would suggest, the DUP of the EU. They know how to maneavuer for maximum gain. They might be our allies sometimes. They might frustrate us at other times. But they're only ever doing what works for them.

    Exactly - the UK’s offer to Hungary would have to be huge to compensate for what the EU could takeaway after the Hungarians have inflicted a No Deal on everyone.

    Why is everybody going mad and saying this leads to No Deal? No. It just forces MPs to accept whatever the deal is on offer from the EU at that time, to avoid No Deal.

    But it does force Brexit over the line, so I can see why some Remainers are shit scared that it might be a scenario they are facing......
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,030
    Likelihood of scenarios, and electoral consequences

    1. BJ gets a WA through EU & parliament. Chances are small, but if he does it he should win the election with a reasonable majority. (So there is no incentive for the Opposition to help BJ succeed.)

    2. No Deal. Even four weeks away it's very hard to say what the chances are, or what the effect on voters would be. It's possible that although the country will be in turmoil, the Tories will do well because the Farage vote will collapse.

    3. Extension. This currently seems the most likely scenario, if only because we've already been here twice before. In the event of an extension it's likely the Tory vote will collapse (as it did after the last extension) and Farage could get more votes than Johnson. This is good news for Corbyn; Labour would probably be the largest party.

    4. Given the above, I think Corbyn should pull the plug on Johnson as early as Monday. Corbyn doesn't want to risk Johnson securing a deal. And calling the election now should also prevent No Deal, since the Benn Act seems reasonably watertight, and there should be consensus among the EU27 that Brexit should not happen in the middle of an election campaign. (In this scenario Labour should also boycott the Queen's Speech, if Johnson insists on it going ahead.) No GONU is required, and Corbyn should do well enough in the election, on a 2nd referendum platform, with the Brexiters split between Johnson (who's failed to achieve Brexit on 31/10) and Farage.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    Revoke has always been unacceptable to a majority of MPs.

    When Hungary vetoes any extension, that becomes EU policy.

    MPs then vote on whatever deal Boris has landed - or No Deal.

    We know they won't No Deal.

    The potential prize is booting Boris and then taking the glory of passing the deal he has negotiated. I see no majority for doing that.
    What if the EU don't agree Boris's deal?
    Then the EU can be blamed for No Deal given Boris will likely get his Deal through Parliament

    Yep, it’s all about the blame. Johnson will get his No Deal at some point and his election victory. Then what?

    The Tories have won a historic 4th term and then either win an even more historic 5th term, something they have not done since Lord Liverpool was PM almost 200 years ago, or more likely the LDs win the election after that. Corbyn Labour will probably be third by then

    You’ll celebrate four titles in a row after the Tory FC victory, but apart from diehard fans like you most people will be more interested in how Johnson manages his No Deal and the problems it causes.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,945
    HYUFD said:

    I would not count on him losing either, as left liberal opponents of Nixon, Reagan and W Bush's re election found to their cost

    It is, of course, worth remembering that Trump's UNFAVOURABILITY is on a different planet to those other Presidents.

    W Bush: 43.4%
    Reagan: 41.8%
    Nixon: 35.4%

    Trump's is ten percentage points worse than W's at 53.8% - and W only squeaked home in 2004.

    Trumo might very well win the Presidency. But it is worth remembering that he has the worst unfavourables of any President in the post War period. Worse even than Carter.
  • GIN1138 said:

    As a nation we're basically at the point of civil war with the one big difference that no one has actually taken up arms.

    But otherwise everything else is pretty much like a civil war including both sides thinking the unthinkable to win.

    Why is Leavers wanting a foreign power to veto an extnsion any worse than remainers wanting to put the Prime Minister in prison?

    There's a bit of a difference between a dodgy deal with a foreign power and legal action in the UK courts - action which purely has the effect of enforcing an act of parliament and getting an extension, which we unambiguously need even in the PM's plan, since there is zero chance of ratifying and implementing a deal in four weeks.

    As for 'remainers', this is a term people should stop using, because it doesn't distinguish between those who want to frustrate Brexit, and the much larger number, such as me, Rory Stewart, or Phil Hammond, who want Brexit to go ahead in a sensible, orderly fashion. The polarisation you refer to is entirely caused by the more extreme Leavers throwing this word around indiscriminately, having themselves trashed the Brexit which was available and would have happened on the 29th March.
  • Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    Revoke has always been unacceptable to a majority of MPs.

    When Hungary vetoes any extension, that becomes EU policy.

    MPs then vote on whatever deal Boris has landed - or No Deal.

    We know they won't No Deal.

    The potential prize is booting Boris and then taking the glory of passing the deal he has negotiated. I see no majority for doing that.
    What if the EU don't agree Boris's deal?
    If Hungary vetoes the extension there'll be a lot of midnight oil being burnt trying to find a deal.

    Weren’t the EU already supposed to have capitulated by now?

  • Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    Revoke has always been unacceptable to a majority of MPs.

    When Hungary vetoes any extension, that becomes EU policy.

    MPs then vote on whatever deal Boris has landed - or No Deal.

    We know they won't No Deal.

    The potential prize is booting Boris and then taking the glory of passing the deal he has negotiated. I see no majority for doing that.
    What if the EU don't agree Boris's deal?
    If Hungary vetoes the extension there'll be a lot of midnight oil being burnt trying to find a deal.

    Weren’t the EU already supposed to have capitulated by now?

    We hold all the cards!
  • Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    Revoke has always been unacceptable to a majority of MPs.

    When Hungary vetoes any extension, that becomes EU policy.

    MPs then vote on whatever deal Boris has landed - or No Deal.

    We know they won't No Deal.

    The potential prize is booting Boris and then taking the glory of passing the deal he has negotiated. I see no majority for doing that.
    I think there is rather too much wishful thinking on all sides at the moment. No one really has a clue what will happen over the next 3 weeks. So many of the main players are unstable when it comes to their political positions and I think pretty much any Brexit related outcome is possible from No Deal to revoke and all shades imbetween
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,945

    GIN1138 said:

    As a nation we're basically at the point of civil war with the one big difference that no one has actually taken up arms.

    But otherwise everything else is pretty much like a civil war including both sides thinking the unthinkable to win.

    Why is Leavers wanting a foreign power to veto an extnsion any worse than remainers wanting to put the Prime Minister in prison?

    There's a bit of a difference between a dodgy deal with a foreign power and legal action in the UK courts - action which purely has the effect of enforcing an act of parliament and getting an extension, which we unambiguously need even in the PM's plan, since there is zero chance of ratifying and implementing a deal in four weeks.

    As for 'remainers', this is a term people should stop using, because it doesn't distinguish between those who want to frustrate Brexit, and the much larger number, such as me, Rory Stewart, or Phil Hammond, who want Brexit to go ahead in a sensible, orderly fashion. The polarisation you refer to is entirely caused by the more extreme Leavers throwing this word around indiscriminately, having themselves trashed the Brexit which was available and would have happened on the 29th March.
    I would add Leaver rcs1000 to the list too.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    They could but Boris would win the next election by a landslide if they did
    On the other hand the Tories will be toast in a GE following No Deal.
    No, the Brexit Party would collapse in the Tories favour as all the polls show with Labour and the LDs dividing the Remain vote leading to a big Tory win.

    The only way the Tories would be toast is if they refuse to commit to deliver Brexit and the Brexit Party overtake them
    That surely depends on the severity of any impact of No Deal?
    Even if it went badly the main beneficiaries would be the LDs not Corbyn Labour given most Remainers are now voting LD
    It doesn't really matter who the main beneficiaries are. If people are, for example, queuing for diesel during a GE campaign due to No Deal the Tories will be decimated.
    No it would be Labour decimated, diehard Leavers would still vote Tory as they are ideologically committed to Brexit and those seeking to reverse Brexit would go LD leaving Labour squeezed in the middle
    Very few people are ideologically committed to Brexit, imo. There will be no blitz spirit or willingness to tolerate serious incovenience, let alone hardship. Boris knows this perfectly well.
    That was the same argument which said voters would prioritise the economy over sovereignty and reducing immigration in the referendum.

    Diehard Remainers underestimate the strength of commitment of Brexiteers at their peril
    It was sold as economically painless and even then only won 52%. The minute people start losing their jobs or can't fill up their cars the strength of commitment will dissipate.
    Most people won't lose their jobs, only 8% of UK businesses export directly to the EU
    Maybe you should marter yourself economically and quit your job, if you have one, relinquish any assets you have and watch as poverty distroys your life. It would be for Brexit, if you are not prepared to become homeless and maybe lose a partner or access to children. Please stop posting stupid comments about only x amount of y will be affected. :wink:
  • rcs1000 said:

    I think there is a degree of naivety in thinking Hungary will ride to the rescue.

    The Hungarian government has their own motivations, and ultimately will do what makes sense for them, not what we (or the ERG or Boris Johnson) want.

    As a country they are a significant recipient of EU funds, and their current account benefits hugely from remittances from citizens working abroad, in the, errrr... EU.

    For them to veto something that everyone else was on board with, precipitating a No Deal Brexit would put them in a very difficult position. What they want, I suspect, is to be bought off by the EU: extra regional development funds, or somesuch. They also have their own battles with the EU over various things - if they can get the EU off their back about (say) the rule of law, then they would probably drop us like third period French.

    They are, I would suggest, the DUP of the EU. They know how to maneavuer for maximum gain. They might be our allies sometimes. They might frustrate us at other times. But they're only ever doing what works for them.

    Exactly - the UK’s offer to Hungary would have to be huge to compensate for what the EU could takeaway after the Hungarians have inflicted a No Deal on everyone.

    Why is everybody going mad and saying this leads to No Deal? No. It just forces MPs to accept whatever the deal is on offer from the EU at that time, to avoid No Deal.

    But it does force Brexit over the line, so I can see why some Remainers are shit scared that it might be a scenario they are facing......

    The government would need to agree a deal with the EU first. Any deal the government agrees with the EU would be rejected by the ERG.

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    rcs1000 said:

    I think there is a degree of naivety in thinking Hungary will ride to the rescue.

    The Hungarian government has their own motivations, and ultimately will do what makes sense for them, not what we (or the ERG or Boris Johnson) want.

    As a country they are a significant recipient of EU funds, and their current account benefits hugely from remittances from citizens working abroad, in the, errrr... EU.

    For them to veto something that everyone else was on board with, precipitating a No Deal Brexit would put them in a very difficult position. What they want, I suspect, is to be bought off by the EU: extra regional development funds, or somesuch. They also have their own battles with the EU over various things - if they can get the EU off their back about (say) the rule of law, then they would probably drop us like third period French.

    They are, I would suggest, the DUP of the EU. They know how to maneavuer for maximum gain. They might be our allies sometimes. They might frustrate us at other times. But they're only ever doing what works for them.

    Exactly - the UK’s offer to Hungary would have to be huge to compensate for what the EU could takeaway after the Hungarians have inflicted a No Deal on everyone.

    Why is everybody going mad and saying this leads to No Deal? No. It just forces MPs to accept whatever the deal is on offer from the EU at that time, to avoid No Deal.

    But it does force Brexit over the line, so I can see why some Remainers are shit scared that it might be a scenario they are facing......
    Not sure that works . If no deal has been agreed with the EU then the government won’t have anything to table so what are MPs supposed to vote on .
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,690
    edited October 2019
    Dadge said:


    3. Extension. This currently seems the most likely scenario, if only because we've already been here twice before. In the event of an extension it's likely the Tory vote will collapse (as it did after the last extension) and Farage could get more votes than Johnson.

    That won't happen. This extension (if it happens) is totally different to the May extensions.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    GIN1138 said:


    AndyJS said:

    If we don't leave on the 31st October it's possible support for both the Brexit Party and the Conservatives will increase in the polls.

    Brexit Party defintely goes up. Con probably goes down a bit.

    But during an election campaign Con will quickly recover any loses to Brexit as Leavers will understand the choice before them quite clearly - which will be Brexit can only be secured under Boris. Any other outcome leads to remain.
    It depends whether potential Tory voters blame Boris for writing the letter. They may decide not to do so if they focus on the fact that he didn't have a choice.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,336

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    They could but Boris would win the next election by a landslide if they did
    On the other hand the Tories will be toast in a GE following No Deal.
    No, the Brexit Party would collapse in the Tories favour as all the polls show with Labour and the LDs dividing the Remain vote leading to a big Tory win.

    The only way the Tories would be toast is if they refuse to commit to deliver Brexit and the Brexit Party overtake them
    That surely depends on the severity of any impact of No Deal?
    Even if it went badly the main beneficiaries would be the LDs not Corbyn Labour given most Remainers are now voting LD
    It doesn't really matter who the main beneficiaries are. If people are, for example, queuing for diesel during a GE campaign due to No Deal the Tories will be decimated.
    No it would be Labour decimated, diehard Leavers would still vote Tory as they are ideologically committed to Brexit and those seeking to reverse Brexit would go LD leaving Labour squeezed in the middle
    Very few people are ideologically committed to Brexit, imo. There will be no blitz spirit or willingness to tolerate serious incovenience, let alone hardship. Boris knows this perfectly well.
    That was the same argument which said voters would prioritise the economy over sovereignty and reducing immigration in the referendum.

    Diehard Remainers underestimate the strength of commitment of Brexiteers at their peril
    It was sold as economically painless and even then only won 52%. The minute people start losing their jobs or can't fill up their cars the strength of commitment will dissipate.
    Most people won't lose their jobs, only 8% of UK businesses export directly to the EU.

    What percentage of the workforce do those 8% employ - and at what pay levels? Factories closing or slowing down has an impact way beyond those directly affected.

    UK exports outside the EU are growing to compensate

    https://www.export.org.uk/news/472306/Increase-of-UK-exports-to-non-EU-countries.htm
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,336

    If the Govt. is in receipt of a letter from the Hungarian Govt. saying it will veto any further extension of the current October 31st deadline, then there is 100% chance of that. Because by virtue of the required unanimity, it becomes the de facto EU position.

    The Govt. can happily say to the Scottish court that it will deliver the letter - if it knows that scenario can never apply.

    Dunno about you, but I can't help feeling it would be somewhat naive to assume that a secret letter from Viktor Orbán would constitute a 100% certainty.

    But really - I appreciate that Brexit has driven people on both sides mad, and in particular the entire Conservative Party has utterly lost its marbles, but you really do need to sober up and have a cold shower if you seriously think it would be good politics to crash us out of the EU in chaos on the basis of a dodgy deal with a Hungarian populist. I mean, what has got into you? It's complete insanity: quite apart from the effect on the country, the effect on the party would be terminal.
    No the only terminal effect on the party would be revoking Brexit or willingly extending again which would see the Brexit Party overtake the Tories
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    They could but Boris would win the next election by a landslide if they did
    On the other hand the Tories will be toast in a GE following No Deal.
    No, the Brexit Party would collapse in the Tories favour as all the polls show with Labour and the LDs dividing the Remain vote leading to a big Tory win.

    The only way the Tories would be toast is if they refuse to commit to deliver Brexit and the Brexit Party overtake them
    That surely depends on the severity of any impact of No Deal?
    Even if it went badly the main beneficiaries would be the LDs not Corbyn Labour given most Remainers are now voting LD
    It doesn't really matter who the main beneficiaries are. If people are, for example, queuing for diesel during a GE campaign due to No Deal the Tories will be decimated.
    No it would be Labour decimated, diehard Leavers would still vote Tory as they are ideologically committed to Brexit and those seeking to reverse Brexit would go LD leaving Labour squeezed in the middle
    Very few people are ideologically committed to Brexit, imo. There will be no blitz spirit or willingness to tolerate serious incovenience, let alone hardship. Boris knows this perfectly well.
    That was the same argument which said voters would prioritise the economy over sovereignty and reducing immigration in the referendum.

    Diehard Remainers underestimate the strength of commitment of Brexiteers at their peril
    It was sold as economically painless and even then only won 52%. The minute people start losing their jobs or can't fill up their cars the strength of commitment will dissipate.
    Most people won't lose their jobs, only 8% of UK businesses export directly to the EU
    Have you ever heard of supply chains and how a loss of jobs like a domino effects everything in its locality as people reliant on those workers to spend also suffer .

    Your flippant tone about job losses is symptomatic of some Leavers Brexit at any cost mentality !
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,690
    edited October 2019



    As for 'remainers', this is a term people should stop using, because it doesn't distinguish between those who want to frustrate Brexit, and the much larger number, such as me, Rory Stewart, or Phil Hammond, who want Brexit to go ahead in a sensible, orderly fashion.

    I thought you were supporting the Revoke Party now?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,336
    edited October 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I would not count on him losing either, as left liberal opponents of Nixon, Reagan and W Bush's re election found to their cost

    It is, of course, worth remembering that Trump's UNFAVOURABILITY is on a different planet to those other Presidents.

    W Bush: 43.4%
    Reagan: 41.8%
    Nixon: 35.4%

    Trump's is ten percentage points worse than W's at 53.8% - and W only squeaked home in 2004.

    Trumo might very well win the Presidency. But it is worth remembering that he has the worst unfavourables of any President in the post War period. Worse even than Carter.
    So, his favourables are higher than Obama's at this stage and you win by getting voters to vote for you
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,336

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    They could but Boris would win the next election by a landslide if they did
    On the other hand the Tories will be toast in a GE following No Deal.
    No, the Brexit Party would collapse in the Tories favour as all the polls show with Labour and the LDs dividing the Remain vote leading to a big Tory win.

    The only way the Tories would be toast is if they refuse to commit to deliver Brexit and the Brexit Party overtake them
    That surely depends on the severity of any impact of No Deal?
    Even if it went badly the main beneficiaries would be the LDs not Corbyn Labour given most Remainers are now voting LD
    It doesn't really matter who the main beneficiaries are. If people are, for example, queuing for diesel during a GE campaign due to No Deal the Tories will be decimated.
    No it would be Labour decimated, diehard Leavers would still vote Tory as they are ideologically committed to Brexit and those seeking to reverse Brexit would go LD leaving Labour squeezed in the middle
    Very few people are well.
    That was the same argument which said voters would prioritise the economy over sovereignty and reducing immigration in the referendum.

    Diehard Remainers underestimate the strength of commitment of Brexiteers at their peril
    It was sold as economically painless and even then only won 52%. The minute people start losing their jobs or can't fill up their cars the strength of commitment will dissipate.
    Most people won't lose their jobs, only 8% of UK businesses export directly to the EU
    Maybe you should marter yourself economically and quit your job, if you have one, relinquish any assets you have and watch as poverty distroys your life. It would be for Brexit, if you are not prepared to become homeless and maybe lose a partner or access to children. Please stop posting stupid comments about only x amount of y will be affected. :wink:
    Please stop posting Armageddon porn about Brexit as it is not true and you still do not understand why 17 million people voted Leave
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,336

    rcs1000 said:

    I think there is a degree of naivety in thinking Hungary will ride to the rescue.

    The Hungarian government has their own motivations, and ultimately will do what makes sense for them, not what we (or the ERG or Boris Johnson) want.

    As a country they are a significant recipient of EU funds, and their current account benefits hugely from remittances from citizens working abroad, in the, errrr... EU.

    For them to veto something that everyone else was on board with, precipitating a No Deal Brexit would put them in a very difficult position. What they want, I suspect, is to be bought off by the EU: extra regional development funds, or somesuch. They also have their own battles with the EU over various things - if they can get the EU off their back about (say) the rule of law, then they would probably drop us like third period French.

    They are, I would suggest, the DUP of the EU. They know how to maneavuer for maximum gain. They might be our allies sometimes. They might frustrate us at other times. But they're only ever doing what works for them.

    Exactly - the UK’s offer to Hungary would have to be huge to compensate for what the EU could takeaway after the Hungarians have inflicted a No Deal on everyone.

    Why is everybody going mad and saying this leads to No Deal? No. It just forces MPs to accept whatever the deal is on offer from the EU at that time, to avoid No Deal.

    But it does force Brexit over the line, so I can see why some Remainers are shit scared that it might be a scenario they are facing......

    The government would need to agree a deal with the EU first. Any deal the government agrees with the EU would be rejected by the ERG.

    The ERG have accepted the Boris plan and the EU have not rejected it yet
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,263
    edited October 2019

    If the Govt. is in receipt of a letter from the Hungarian Govt. saying it will veto any further extension of the current October 31st deadline, then there is 100% chance of that. Because by virtue of the required unanimity, it becomes the de facto EU position.

    The Govt. can happily say to the Scottish court that it will deliver the letter - if it knows that scenario can never apply.

    Dunno about you, but I can't help feeling it would be somewhat naive to assume that a secret letter from Viktor Orbán would constitute a 100% certainty.

    But really - I appreciate that Brexit has driven people on both sides mad, and in particular the entire Conservative Party has utterly lost its marbles, but you really do need to sober up and have a cold shower if you seriously think it would be good politics to crash us out of the EU in chaos on the basis of a dodgy deal with a Hungarian populist. I mean, what has got into you? It's complete insanity: quite apart from the effect on the country, the effect on the party would be terminal.
    A vetoed extension does not have to lead to No Deal. Parliament will have to decide at the point of a gun, without recourse to a GE or referendum. No deal is a non-starter, Revoke is highly unlikely, Boris's Deal will probably be non-existant. This leaves the WA which will have to be passed. The EU 26 will have no reason to be furious with Hungary as they will end up with the outcome they want.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,336
    nico67 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    They could but Boris would win the next election by a landslide if they did
    On the other hand the Tories will be toast in a GE following No Deal.
    No, the Brexit Party would collapse in the Tories favour as all the polls show with Labour and the LDs dividing the Remain vote leading to a big Tory win.

    The only way the Tories would be toast is if they refuse to commit to deliver Brexit and the Brexit Party overtake them
    That surely depends on the severity of any impact of No Deal?
    Even if it went badly the main beneficiaries would be the LDs not Corbyn Labour given most Remainers are now voting LD
    It doesn't really matter who the main beneficiaries are. If people are, for example, queuing for diesel during a GE campaign due to No Deal the Tories will be decimated.
    No it would be Labour decimated, diehard Leavers would still vote Tory as they are ideologically committed to Brexit and those seeking to reverse Brexit would go LD leaving Labour squeezed in the middle
    Very few people are ideologically committed to Brexit, imo. There will be no blitz spirit or willingness to tolerate serious incovenience, let alone hardship. Boris knows this perfectly well.
    That was the same argument whicthe strength of commitment of Brexiteers at their peril
    It was sold as economically painless and even then only won 52%. The minute people start losing their jobs or can't fill up their cars the strength of commitment will dissipate.
    Most people won't lose their jobs, only 8% of UK businesses export directly to the EU
    Have you ever heard of supply chains and how a loss of jobs like a domino effects everything in its locality as people reliant on those workers to spend also suffer .

    Your flippant tone about job losses is symptomatic of some Leavers Brexit at any cost mentality !
    Most businesses do not export to the EU or have a majority of customers who work for businesses which export to the EU and even in No Deal not all exports to the EU will cease even with tariffs and as I said exports outside the EU are growing
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,690
    edited October 2019

    Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    Revoke has always been unacceptable to a majority of MPs.

    When Hungary vetoes any extension, that becomes EU policy.

    MPs then vote on whatever deal Boris has landed - or No Deal.

    We know they won't No Deal.

    The potential prize is booting Boris and then taking the glory of passing the deal he has negotiated. I see no majority for doing that.
    I think there is rather too much wishful thinking on all sides at the moment. No one really has a clue what will happen over the next 3 weeks. So many of the main players are unstable when it comes to their political positions and I think pretty much any Brexit related outcome is possible from No Deal to revoke and all shades imbetween
    I may be batshit crazy but I still think, two weeks tonight, Boris will be flying home with a deal that will then get through Parliament perhaps in a rare Saturday sitting.

    If there's one thing this whole Saga still needs its a weekend sitting of Parliament. :D
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,916
    HYUFD said:

    ... and can get diesel from the USA and Russia...

    You seem to be confusing "No Deal" with a blockade.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,086
    PeterC said:

    If the Govt. is in receipt of a letter from the Hungarian Govt. saying it will veto any further extension of the current October 31st deadline, then there is 100% chance of that. Because by virtue of the required unanimity, it becomes the de facto EU position.

    The Govt. can happily say to the Scottish court that it will deliver the letter - if it knows that scenario can never apply.

    Dunno about you, but I can't help feeling it would be somewhat naive to assume that a secret letter from Viktor Orbán would constitute a 100% certainty.

    But really - I appreciate that Brexit has driven people on both sides mad, and in particular the entire Conservative Party has utterly lost its marbles, but you really do need to sober up and have a cold shower if you seriously think it would be good politics to crash us out of the EU in chaos on the basis of a dodgy deal with a Hungarian populist. I mean, what has got into you? It's complete insanity: quite apart from the effect on the country, the effect on the party would be terminal.
    A vetoed extension does not have to lead to No Deal. Parliament will have to decide at the point of a gun, without recourse to ar GE or referendum. No deal is a non-starter, Revokeis highly unlikely, Boris's Deal will probably be non-existant. This leaves the WA which will have to be passed. The EU 26 will have no reason to be furious with Hungary as they will end up with the outcome they want.
    That’s interesting. Your last point especially.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,945
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I would not count on him losing either, as left liberal opponents of Nixon, Reagan and W Bush's re election found to their cost

    It is, of course, worth remembering that Trump's UNFAVOURABILITY is on a different planet to those other Presidents.

    W Bush: 43.4%
    Reagan: 41.8%
    Nixon: 35.4%

    Trump's is ten percentage points worse than W's at 53.8% - and W only squeaked home in 2004.

    Trumo might very well win the Presidency. But it is worth remembering that he has the worst unfavourables of any President in the post War period. Worse even than Carter.
    So, his favourables are higher than Obama's at this stage and you win by getting voters to vote for you
    No.

    You get elected by a combination of:

    (a) motivating people to vote for you
    and
    (b) not motivating people to vote against you

    We don't have to argue about this, of course. We can prove this using actual data.

    My position is that net approval is a better predictor of election outcomes, and yours is that gross is all that matters right?

    If you can confirm that, then we can look at (a) all the US elections since the war, and (b) all recent European elections for which there is decent polling data.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    They could but Boris would win the next election by a landslide if they did
    On the other hand the Tories will be toast in a GE following No Deal.
    The only way the Tories would be toast is if they refuse to commit to deliver Brexit and the Brexit Party overtake them
    That surely depends on the severity of any impact of No Deal?
    Even if it went badly the main beneficiaries would be the LDs not Corbyn Labour given most Remainers are now voting LD
    It doesn't really matter who the main beneficiaries are. If people are, for example, queuing for diesel during a GE campaign due to No Deal the Tories will be decimated.
    Very few people are well.
    That was the same argument which said voters would prioritise the economy over sovereignty and reducing immigration in the referendum.

    Diehard Remainers underestimate the strength of commitment of Brexiteers at their peril
    It was sold as economically painless and even then only won 52%. The minute people start losing their jobs or can't fill up their cars the strength of commitment will dissipate.
    Most people won't lose their jobs, only 8% of UK businesses export directly to the EU
    Maybe you should marter yourself economically and quit your job, if you have one, relinquish any assets you have and watch as poverty distroys your life. It would be for Brexit, if you are not prepared to become homeless and maybe lose a partner or access to children. Please stop posting stupid comments about only x amount of y will be affected. :wink:
    Please stop posting Armageddon porn about Brexit as it is not true and you still do not understand why 17 million people voted Leave
    If your not willing to bring on yourself what you advocate others should suffer you are not really supporting Brexit. You are not supporting BJ and are betraying the Tories and the 17.4 million voters, who voted for Brexit. You have to make the gesture! :smiley: I know you will not. We have not left the EU yet, so the full impact has not materialised economically.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,086
    GIN1138 said:

    Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    Revoke has always been unacceptable to a majority of MPs.

    When Hungary vetoes any extension, that becomes EU policy.

    MPs then vote on whatever deal Boris has landed - or No Deal.

    We know they won't No Deal.

    The potential prize is booting Boris and then taking the glory of passing the deal he has negotiated. I see no majority for doing that.
    I think there is rather too much wishful thinking on all sides at the moment. No one really has a clue what will happen over the next 3 weeks. So many of the main players are unstable when it comes to their political positions and I think pretty much any Brexit related outcome is possible from No Deal to revoke and all shades imbetween
    I may be batshit crazy but I still think, two weeks tonight, Boris will be flying home with a deal that will then get through Parliament perhaps in a rare Saturday sitting.

    If there's one thing this whole Saga still needs its a weekend sitting of Parliament. :D
    He’ll need to reinstate the whip to the majority of the expelled tories on the condition they support the new deal first. If anything to defend an ambush VONC.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,690
    edited October 2019

    GIN1138 said:

    Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    Revoke has always been unacceptable to a majority of MPs.

    When Hungary vetoes any extension, that becomes EU policy.

    MPs then vote on whatever deal Boris has landed - or No Deal.

    We know they won't No Deal.

    The potential prize is booting Boris and then taking the glory of passing the deal he has negotiated. I see no majority for doing that.
    I think there is rather too much wishful thinking on all sides at the moment. No one really has a clue what will happen over the next 3 weeks. So many of the main players are unstable when it comes to their political positions and I think pretty much any Brexit related outcome is possible from No Deal to revoke and all shades imbetween
    I may be batshit crazy but I still think, two weeks tonight, Boris will be flying home with a deal that will then get through Parliament perhaps in a rare Saturday sitting.

    If there's one thing this whole Saga still needs its a weekend sitting of Parliament. :D
    He’ll need to reinstate the whip to the majority of the expelled tories on the condition they support the new deal first. If anything to defend an ambush VONC.
    I don't think a VONC would be allowed before Parliament has voted on Queens Speech.

    The way I see it playing out:

    1. Queens Speech 14th October followed by 5-6 days of debate (in this period normal buisness doesn't take place)

    2. EU summit 17th/18th October. Boris flys home with a deal late on 18th.

    3. Emergency debate tabled by government on Saturday 19th October to discuss and vote on the deal. Deal passes.

    4. Queens Speech vote on 21st October. Government loses.

    5. Possible VONC following Queens Speech loss. Government loses.

    6. general election agreed on 22nd October for 28th November or 5th December.

    IMO there is a reason the Queens Speech is happening on 14th October with EU summit on 17th and 18th. That is not a coincidence.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,030
    GIN1138 said:

    Dadge said:


    3. Extension. This currently seems the most likely scenario, if only because we've already been here twice before. In the event of an extension it's likely the Tory vote will collapse (as it did after the last extension) and Farage could get more votes than Johnson.

    That won't happen. This extension (if it happens) is totally different to the May extensions.
    Wanna bet? I bet you £10 that all polls conducted after the govt sends the extension letter will show a fall in Tory support.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    How do MPs bring back Mays deal to vote on against the government wishes ?

    And then this has to go into a Bill to be made into law . It’s not like passing a short bill . Even if they tried to change the standing orders there simply wouldn’t be the time to get all this done against a government who refuses to play ball.

    If a veto is made against an extension MPs would have to bring down the government and form a GNU to ensure they can revoke article 50.

    There’s no guarantee revoking whilst Bozo was in charge would get put into law.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,916
    HYUFD said:

    Most businesses do not export to the EU or have a majority of customers who work for businesses which export to the EU

    Most parts of my body are not attached to my hand nor the parts attached to my hand.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,690
    edited October 2019
    Dadge said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Dadge said:


    3. Extension. This currently seems the most likely scenario, if only because we've already been here twice before. In the event of an extension it's likely the Tory vote will collapse (as it did after the last extension) and Farage could get more votes than Johnson.

    That won't happen. This extension (if it happens) is totally different to the May extensions.
    Wanna bet? I bet you £10 that all polls conducted after the govt sends the extension letter will show a fall in Tory support.
    I don't bet. ;)

    I don't disagree that there would be a fall in Tory support following an extension but I think it would be fairly small compared to the one May experianced and Con would get it back quickly in any subsequent election campaign as Leave voters realize that their one and only chance of securing Brexit is to vote for Boris.
  • rcs1000 said:

    I think there is a degree of naivety in thinking Hungary will ride to the rescue.

    The Hungarian government has their own motivations, and ultimately will do what makes sense for them, not what we (or the ERG or Boris Johnson) want.

    As a country they are a significant recipient of EU funds, and their current account benefits hugely from remittances from citizens working abroad, in the, errrr... EU.

    For them to veto something that everyone else was on board with, precipitating a No Deal Brexit would put them in a very difficult position. What they want, I suspect, is to be bought off by the EU: extra regional development funds, or somesuch. They also have their own battles with the EU over various things - if they can get the EU off their back about (say) the rule of law, then they would probably drop us like third period French.

    They are, I would suggest, the DUP of the EU. They know how to maneavuer for maximum gain. They might be our allies sometimes. They might frustrate us at other times. But they're only ever doing what works for them.

    If the common political will in the Europan Council would really, really like to see an extension happening and Orban vetoed it, he would, of course, had to consider serious repercussions.

    If, on the other hand, the mood were more like "we've had enough of the tossers now, but we don't exactly want to be seen to be pulling the trigger", then it might not even be inconvenient to have him doing it.

    After all, he'a kindred spirit of yours. And you're even paying him for doing it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,336
    edited October 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I would not count on him losing either, as left liberal opponents of Nixon, Reagan and W Bush's re election found to their cost

    It is, of course, worth remembering that Trump's UNFAVOURABILITY is on a different planet to those other Presidents.

    W Bush: 43.4%
    Reagan: 41.8%
    Nixon: 35.4%

    Trump's is ten percentage points worse than W's at 53.8% - and W only squeaked home in 2004.

    Trumo might very well win the Presidency. But it is worth remembering that he has the worst unfavourables of any President in the post War period. Worse even than Carter.
    So, his favourables are higher than Obama's at this stage and you win by getting voters to vote for you
    No.

    You get elected by a combination of:

    (a) motivating people to vote for you
    and
    (b) not motivating people to vote against you

    We don't have to argue about this, of course. We can prove this using actual data.

    My position is that net approval is a better predictor of election outcomes, and yours is that gross is all that matters right?

    If you can confirm that, then we can look at (a) all the US elections since the war, and (b) all recent European elections for which there is decent polling data.
    In 2012 Obama voters voted for Obama. Romney voters voted against Obama. Obama won.

    In 2004 Bush voters voted for Bush. Kerry voters voted against Bush. Bush won.

    In 1996 Clinton voters voted for Clinton. Dole voters voted against Clinton. Clinton won.

    The last candidate to beat a sitting President was Bill Clinton himself in 1992 when voters voted for him and none of the current crop of Democratic candidates will match his enthusiasm and energy so Trump will likely win again.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    GIN1138 said:

    Dadge said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Dadge said:


    3. Extension. This currently seems the most likely scenario, if only because we've already been here twice before. In the event of an extension it's likely the Tory vote will collapse (as it did after the last extension) and Farage could get more votes than Johnson.

    That won't happen. This extension (if it happens) is totally different to the May extensions.
    Wanna bet? I bet you £10 that all polls conducted after the govt sends the extension letter will show a fall in Tory support.
    I don't bet. ;)

    I don't disagree that there would be a fall in Tory support following an extension but I think it would be fairly small compared to the one May experianced and Con would get it back quickly in any subsequent election campaign as Leave voters realize that their one and only chance of securing Brexit is to vote for Boris.
    The polling would depend on how the Brexit supporting media reacts to an extension. If as a response to any extension, Farage and TBP suddenly get press coverage to rival the prelude to the EU elections then BJ and the Tories could slump. On the otherhand if BJ gets a sympathetic press and the TBP is largely ignored I think BJ might live to extend A50 again. :smiley:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 79,336
    edited October 2019

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on a replacement in time to hit the panic revoke button?

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    They could but Boris would win the next election by a landslide if they did
    On the other hand the Tories will be toast in a GE following No Deal.
    The only way the Tories would be toast is if they refuse to commit to deliver Brexit and the Brexit Party overtake them
    That surely depends on the severity of any impact of No Deal?
    Even if it went badly the main beneficiaries would be the LDs not Corbyn Labour given most Remainers are now voting LD
    It doesn't really matter who the main beneficiaries are. If people are, for example, queuing for diesel during a GE campaign due to No Deal the Tories will be decimated.
    Very few people are well.
    That was the same argument which said ent of Brexiteers at their peril
    It was sold as economically painless and even then only won 52%. The minute people start losing their jobs or can't fill up their cars the strength of commitment will dissipate.
    Most people won't lose their jobs, only 8% of UK businesses export directly to the EU
    Maybe you should marter yourself economically and quit your job, e affected. :wink:
    Please stop posting Armageddon porn about Brexit as it is not true and you still do not understand why 17 million people voted Leave
    If your not willing to bring on yourself what you advocate others should suffer you are not really supporting Brexit. You are not supporting BJ and are betraying the Tories and the 17.4 million voters, who voted for Brexit. You have to make the gesture! :smiley: I know you will not. We have not left the EU yet, so the full impact has not materialised economically.
    I did not vote for Brexit but I will support delivering the will of 17 million Leave voters to regain sovereignty and reduce immigration, preferably with a Brexit Deal agreed with the EU as Boris proposes but if not with No Deal if the EU will not agree.

    Most businesses do not export and most that export now export outside the EU so even with No Deal we will survive
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,263
    edited October 2019
    nico67 said:

    How do MPs bring back Mays deal to vote on against the government wishes ?

    And then this has to go into a Bill to be made into law . It’s not like passing a short bill . Even if they tried to change the standing orders there simply wouldn’t be the time to get all this done against a government who refuses to play ball.

    If a veto is made against an extension MPs would have to bring down the government and form a GNU to ensure they can revoke article 50.

    There’s no guarantee revoking whilst Bozo was in charge would get put into law.

    Boris does not want No Deal. He wants to win the GE which he will not do in circumstances of utter chaos. He will turn the decision over to parliament
    nico67 said:

    How do MPs bring back Mays deal to vote on against the government wishes ?

    And then this has to go into a Bill to be made into law . It’s not like passing a short bill . Even if they tried to change the standing orders there simply wouldn’t be the time to get all this done against a government who refuses to play ball.

    If a veto is made against an extension MPs would have to bring down the government and form a GNU to ensure they can revoke article 50.

    There’s no guarantee revoking whilst Bozo was in charge would get put into law.

    Boris does not want No Deal. He wants to win the GE which he will not do in circumstances of utter chaos. He will play the good parliamentarian and turn the decision over to MPs once the veto is in.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:



    So, his favourables are higher than Obama's at this stage and you win by getting voters to vote for you

    The difference is that Obama was in a temporary dip, at this exact point in time. He was basically net zero for most of his first term.

    Trump, by contrast, has been stuck at the -10 to -12 band for over a year now, despite being in basically fully campaign mode for that entire time.


    Also worth mentioning that Obama was dealing with massive economic problems, whereas Trump inherited a benign economy and has proceeded to borrow extremely heavily at the top of the economic cycle to prop up his numbers - he's now borrowing even more than Gordon Brown was in 08.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 15,158

    On topic, it's hard to see what Stewart's pitch is. He doesn't live in London and isn't from London as far as I know. He's not shown any great interest in the city and its problems. He's a nice reasonable chap, but so is Khan. He doesn't seem to have any real advantage in the areas, like crime, where Khan might be vulnerable. He has baggage from his time as Tory MP that can be exploited, and while he has walked away from the Tory Party now, just a few weeks ago he wanted to lead it. It feels a little bit entitled, just pitching up in London and saying he should be Mayor. It feels like it's more about him than about London.

    His appeal seems primarily to people who want someone reasonable and don't especially care about any particular kind of politics. That could well deliver him 2nd place since Bailey seems to be getting nowhere, but I doubt if it's enough to get close to winning.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,559
    PeterC said:

    nico67 said:

    How do MPs bring back Mays deal to vote on against the government wishes ?

    And then this has to go into a Bill to be made into law . It’s not like passing a short bill . Even if they tried to change the standing orders there simply wouldn’t be the time to get all this done against a government who refuses to play ball.

    If a veto is made against an extension MPs would have to bring down the government and form a GNU to ensure they can revoke article 50.

    There’s no guarantee revoking whilst Bozo was in charge would get put into law.

    Boris does not want No Deal. He wants to win the GE which he will not do in circumstances of utter chaos. He will play the good parliamentarian and turn the decision over to MPs once the veto is in.
    The new session allows May's deal to be brought back for one last hurrah.

    No idea if that's the Gov't plan but it wouldn't be the worst possible.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 29,875
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Re: the rumours surrounding Hungary and the extension veto - if true, could Parliament throw out Johnson and agree on

    I really don't know. Does anyone?!?!

    They could but Boris would win the next election by a landslide if they did
    On the other hand the Tories will be toast in a GE following No Deal.
    The only way the Tories would be toast is if they refuse to commit to deliver Brexit and the Brexit Party overtake them
    That surely depends on the severity of any impact of No Deal?
    Even if it went badly the main beneficiaries would be the LDs not Corbyn Labour given most Remainers are now voting LD
    Itecimated.
    Very few people are well.
    That was the same argument which said ent of Brexiteers at their peril
    It was sold as economically painless and even then only won 52%. The minute people start losing their jobs or can't fill up their cars the strength of commitment will dissipate.
    Most people won't lose their jobs, only 8% of UK businesses export directly to the EU
    Maybe you should marter yourself economically and quit your job, e affected. :wink:
    Please stop posting Armageddon porn about Brexit as it is not true and you still do not understand why 17 million people voted Leave
    If your not willing to bring on yourself what you advocate others should suffer you are not really supporting Brexit. You are not supporting BJ and are betraying the Tories and the 17.4 million voters, who voted for Brexit. You have to make the gesture! :smiley: I know you will not. We have not left the EU yet, so the full impact has not materialised economically.
    I did not vote for Brexit but I will support delivering the will of 17 million Leave voters to regain sovereignty and reduce immigration, preferably with a Brexit Deal agreed with the EU as Boris proposes but if not with No Deal if the EU will not agree.

    Most businesses do not export and most that export now export outside the EU so even with No Deal we will survive
    And with a few glib words a whole slice of the economy is dismissed from consideration. You think your party will survive the likely consequences?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,129
    GIN1138 said:


    3. Emergency debate tabled by government on Saturday 19th October to discuss and vote on the deal. Deal passes.

    4. Queens Speech vote on 21st October. Government loses.

    5. Possible VONC following Queens Speech loss. Government loses.

    6. general election agreed on 22nd October for 28th November or 5th December.

    IMO there is a reason the Queens Speech is happening on 14th October with EU summit on 17th and 18th. That is not a coincidence.

    This seems to assume a very helpful series of votes for the government, I don't really understand why the opposition parties would cooperate with it.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,611
    You just can't keep a good man down...

    Back on his feet and ready to get back into the fight. First the nomination, then the white house. Those who think this man would let something like a heart attack stop him fighting for ordinary Americans haven't got the measure of the man.

    Bernie Bernie Bernie!



  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 19,446

    You just can't keep a good man down...

    Back on his feet and ready to get back into the fight. First the nomination, then the white house. Those who think this man would let something like a heart attack stop him fighting for ordinary Americans haven't got the measure of the man.

    Bernie Bernie Bernie!



    I would regard getting back on the stump so soon after cardiac stenting as rash to the point of folly. It is not a minor procedure and the cardiac tissue does take time to recover. The risk varies with the particular area involved, type of stent and other vascular risk factors, but after emergency stenting 6 weeks off is a reasonable minimum.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UK to leave on 31st October:

    Yes 4.4 / 4.5
    No 1.27 / 1.29

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.157669732
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,513

    You just can't keep a good man down...

    Back on his feet and ready to get back into the fight. First the nomination, then the white house. Those who think this man would let something like a heart attack stop him fighting for ordinary Americans haven't got the measure of the man.

    Bernie Bernie Bernie!



    Bernie's a hero.
    But this doesn't seem particularly wise and I hope his health doesn't suffer.
    I suspect his legacy will be preparing the ground for left wing politics in the US, rather than actually winning himself.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,611
    edited October 2019
    Foxy said:

    You just can't keep a good man down...

    Back on his feet and ready to get back into the fight. First the nomination, then the white house. Those who think this man would let something like a heart attack stop him fighting for ordinary Americans haven't got the measure of the man.

    Bernie Bernie Bernie!



    I would regard getting back on the stump so soon after cardiac stenting as rash to the point of folly. It is not a minor procedure and the cardiac tissue does take time to recover. The risk varies with the particular area involved, type of stent and other vascular risk factors, but after emergency stenting 6 weeks off is a reasonable minimum.

    I can't speak for him or his actual plans but I don't think even most of his critics would claim he wants to be president for his own personal benefit. The reward as he (possibly) sees it is helping millions of Americans, the risk is only to one.

    I wouldn't begrudge him walking away for a second but I am delighted should he chose to continue. I don't think he'll be jumping around a stage tomorrow but I can't see him taking 6 weeks off either. Hopefully he can take it easy though if he does come back sooner than he should.
    rkrkrk said:



    Bernie's a hero.
    But this doesn't seem particularly wise and I hope his health doesn't suffer.
    I suspect his legacy will be preparing the ground for left wing politics in the US, rather than actually winning himself.

    It seems the most likely outcome, I can live with it considering the improvement from just 5 or 6 years ago. Although I'm not writing him off yet...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Does anyone pay attention to those dates?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 19,446
    rkrkrk said:

    You just can't keep a good man down...

    Back on his feet and ready to get back into the fight. First the nomination, then the white house. Those who think this man would let something like a heart attack stop him fighting for ordinary Americans haven't got the measure of the man.

    Bernie Bernie Bernie!



    Bernie's a hero.
    But this doesn't seem particularly wise and I hope his health doesn't suffer.
    I suspect his legacy will be preparing the ground for left wing politics in the US, rather than actually winning himself.
    Bernie is John the Baptist. @AOC is the messiah :)
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 293
    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone pay attention to those dates?
    Yes. Every health and safety inspector on the planet - and every disgruntled visitor to every food shop in the country, hoping to find some trivial infraction they can whinge about or get compensation or a discount for.

    It's almost certain no-one's every been hurt by food a few days beyond its sell-by. But every food retailer in Britain is guaranteed financial or reputational damage if they sell it.

    Only a government run by ivory-tower spivs could seriously suggest responsible businesses break the law. This government isn't just run by crooks and liars: it's run by crooks and liars who've never in their lives run any kind of organisation.

    The Tory party used to be the party of responsibility. Now it's the party of tabloid columnists.
This discussion has been closed.