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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Failed CON leadership contender, Rory Stewart, to fight for th

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,636
    David Allen Green. A bit like Dave Allen, but less amusing.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,374
    Pulpstar said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-49921799

    Question for everyone.
    Whilst I have no doubt that O'Mara is not acting in the interests of ANY of his constituents, if the complaint is upheld, why wouldn't this apply to the seven Sinn Fein MPs, who also collect sacks of cash but do nothing for it?

    "In a letter to the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards, a constituent alleges the MP has failed to act in the public interest and has used public money for his own benefit."

    Sinn Fein MPs are not expected by anyone to take their seat is the difference. You vote Sinn Fein, you're voting abstention.
    Don't SF MP's do constituency work? Thought they did.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,636
    TGOHF2 said:
    Wishful thinking going on from Baker and Staines today.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,407
    edited October 2019

    Oh I dunno. 'This guy from Cumbria who likes hunting foxes......' it's a good dismissal for someone wanting to be mayor. Obviously they'll go hard in brexit/no grexit too but this is the icing. Fox hunting is really really unpopular outside the countryside

    (Off-topic but...)

    The secret is that fox hunting is also really really unpopular in the countryside. I used to live in prime hunting territory (Rutland) and hunters were by and large despised as a bunch of arrogant wankers.

    Hunting support in the countryside is generally limited to (a) people who go hunting (b) people who are employed by, or are tenants on the estates of, people who go hunting (c) people who don't really support hunting but think townies should butt the hell out of the countryside (d) the Bufton-Tuftons. Of those I'd say that (c) is easily the largest group.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,030

    On topic
    Fox hunting fan. In London.
    Avoid with betting $$$

    I don't expect his programme will include setting up meets in Kensington Gardens, although to be fair anything which helped reduce the nuisance of foxes on London streets should be quite popular.
    No, but it will be hammered at by Khan. The Tory manifesto bilge of a foxy free vote was part of the 2017 debacle. Rory attends (legal) hunt meetings and is a keen pro hunter. It will go down in metropolitan luvvie millenial London like a cup of cold sick
    This is a bit wood-for-the-trees, isn't it?

    The fact "Rory supports hunting" is as naught in London compared to "Rory voted repeatedly for Theresa May's Brexit deal and still says he supports Brexit".

    The Lib Dems are going to repeatedly hammer him on this.
    Oh I dunno. 'This guy from Cumbria who likes hunting foxes......' it's a good dismissal for someone wanting to be mayor. Obviously they'll go hard in brexit/no grexit too but this is the icing. Fox hunting is really really unpopular outside the countryside

    On topic
    Fox hunting fan. In London.
    Avoid with betting $$$

    I don't expect his programme will include setting up meets in Kensington Gardens, although to be fair anything which helped reduce the nuisance of foxes on London streets should be quite popular.
    No, but it will be hammered at by Khan. The Tory manifesto bilge of a foxy free vote was part of the 2017 debacle. Rory attends (legal) hunt meetings and is a keen pro hunter. It will go down in metropolitan luvvie millenial London like a cup of cold sick
    This is a bit wood-for-the-trees, isn't it?

    The fact "Rory supports hunting" is as naught in London compared to "Rory voted repeatedly for Theresa May's Brexit deal and still says he supports Brexit".

    The Lib Dems are going to repeatedly hammer him on this.
    Oh I dunno. 'This guy from Cumbria who likes hunting foxes......' it's a good dismissal for someone wanting to be mayor. Obviously they'll go hard in brexit/no grexit too but this is the icing. Fox hunting is really really unpopular outside the countryside
    I find Stewart's candidacy bizarre (except as a terrible example of opportunism) and disrespectful to the other candidates. I rather hope that he sees sense and changes his mind.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,624
    Brom said:

    148grss said:









    So gov has made it clear they will do what the Benn Act says, but courts may still write an injunction telling them they have to because the government isn't really trustworthy. Interesting.

    Also, in before people calling him out as a remainer:

    This guy David Allen Green is a nutjob, we've seen it all before. No wonder the press gives him a wide birth
    148grss said:









    So gov has made it clear they will do what the Benn Act says, but courts may still write an injunction telling them they have to because the government isn't really trustworthy. Interesting.

    Also, in before people calling him out as a remainer:

    One tweet saying he's not a hysterical remainer doesn't excuse his wild conspiracy theory back catalogue. Like so many twitter demigods we take his views with a hefty pinch of salt.
    An informative thread on process, I think. You may or may not agree with David Allen Greens political takes but I would expect a government lawyer to know how governments manage legal matters.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    I get the 'wishful thinking' aspect of the Hungary veto idea but is it not possible Hungary has agreed to threaten veto behind the scenes as an attempt to force the EU to accept some sort of version of the Boris deal rather than no deal?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 35,453
    TGOHF2 said:
    I've said before, for shitz n gigglez, Boris makes Cummings our EU Commissioner...... Saying EVERYTHING the EU never wants said, but from the inside.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,690
    edited October 2019
    If Boris was put in prison, as a former PM would he still be entitled to 24/7 police protection? :D
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 14,634
    TGOHF2 said:
    They can save themselves the bother... the Benn Act has already written the letter for them.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276

    TGOHF2 said:
    I've said before, for shitz n gigglez, Boris makes Cummings our EU Commissioner...... Saying EVERYTHING the EU never wants said, but from the inside.
    Dom ? Surely Boris should appoint Nigel to commission
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,690
    edited October 2019

    I get the 'wishful thinking' aspect of the Hungary veto idea but is it not possible Hungary has agreed to threaten veto behind the scenes as an attempt to force the EU to accept some sort of version of the Boris deal rather than no deal?

    There must be some reason the Hungarian foreign sec was attended the UK governments Cabinet yesterday?

    That can't be normal...
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    GIN1138 said:

    I get the 'wishful thinking' aspect of the Hungary veto idea but is it not possible Hungary has agreed to threaten veto behind the scenes as an attempt to force the EU to accept some sort of version of the Boris deal rather than no deal?

    There must be some reason the Hungarian foreign sec was attended the UK givernments Cabinet yesterday?

    That can't be normal...
    It seems interesting at very least
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,090

    I get the 'wishful thinking' aspect of the Hungary veto idea but is it not possible Hungary has agreed to threaten veto behind the scenes as an attempt to force the EU to accept some sort of version of the Boris deal rather than no deal?

    If true, I think this strategy would still be based on a misconceived view of the EU's preferences. No Deal remains a bluff on Johnson's part.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,690

    GIN1138 said:

    I get the 'wishful thinking' aspect of the Hungary veto idea but is it not possible Hungary has agreed to threaten veto behind the scenes as an attempt to force the EU to accept some sort of version of the Boris deal rather than no deal?

    There must be some reason the Hungarian foreign sec was attended the UK givernments Cabinet yesterday?

    That can't be normal...
    It seems interesting at very least
    We also know there's a huge wad of money that Varadkar turned down just waiting to be handed out to someone... ;)
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    GIN1138 said:

    I get the 'wishful thinking' aspect of the Hungary veto idea but is it not possible Hungary has agreed to threaten veto behind the scenes as an attempt to force the EU to accept some sort of version of the Boris deal rather than no deal?

    There must be some reason the Hungarian foreign sec was attended the UK governments Cabinet yesterday?

    That can't be normal...
    Winding up the EU would be my guess.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 2,433

    Gabs2 said:

    Sorry for being so off-topic and behind in my reading-

    "Some civil servants have an unofficial test for their briefing documents. The object is to make them so clear that even the dimmest of ministers can grasp the essential points by the third time of reading. For a while it was dubbed "the Amber Rudd test" in honour of one slow learner , but when Rudd became Home Secretary, it was decided that she deserved more respect. So the name was changed - to "the Priti Patel test". Now, thanks to Patel's unexpected promotion to same position, yet another name is under discussion."

    https://www.theweek.co.uk/

    Amber Rudd has a degree from Queen's College and passed the high interview bar to get into JP Morgan. Priti Patel didn't do quite as well but has a Masters from Essex, which is one of the best government departments in the country. I suspect this is civil servants revealing their own prejudices.
    Perhaps putting bright opinionated people in charge of ministries they have never worked in before is not a good model for running a country. They bring their outsider thoughts in which may make sense at a basic level but dont take account of complexities and knock on effects they are unaware of. I imagine it is that dynamic that civil servants get repeatedly frustrated by, not that they think senior ministers are as dim as the article suggests.
    Having had dealings recently with senior civil servants on a specific issue and having then done a FOI request on the entirety of the issue within that department I can confirm that we may actually be overrating the civil servants somewhat. Minister's briefing notes were often hopelessly wrong. Sadly the ministers letters were almost always verbatim the civil servants drafts, even when we/I could see that they had documentation that contradicted points made.

    I was very shocked by how hopeless this was.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,260

    GIN1138 said:

    I get the 'wishful thinking' aspect of the Hungary veto idea but is it not possible Hungary has agreed to threaten veto behind the scenes as an attempt to force the EU to accept some sort of version of the Boris deal rather than no deal?

    There must be some reason the Hungarian foreign sec was attended the UK givernments Cabinet yesterday?

    That can't be normal...
    It seems interesting at very least
    Surely that would be seen as frustrating the Benn act if proven and Johnson off to jail.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 35,453

    I get the 'wishful thinking' aspect of the Hungary veto idea but is it not possible Hungary has agreed to threaten veto behind the scenes as an attempt to force the EU to accept some sort of version of the Boris deal rather than no deal?

    If true, I think this strategy would still be based on a misconceived view of the EU's preferences. No Deal remains a bluff on Johnson's part.
    If Hungary (or whoever else can be persuaded that the Brexit saga really needs to end) determinedly says "No more extensions", and holds that line, then to preserve the pretence of EU unity, no more extensions becomes the EU's agreed position....

    And November's incoming Commission will go "yippee!"
  • Pulpstar said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-49921799

    Question for everyone.
    Whilst I have no doubt that O'Mara is not acting in the interests of ANY of his constituents, if the complaint is upheld, why wouldn't this apply to the seven Sinn Fein MPs, who also collect sacks of cash but do nothing for it?

    "In a letter to the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards, a constituent alleges the MP has failed to act in the public interest and has used public money for his own benefit."

    Sinn Fein MPs are not expected by anyone to take their seat is the difference. You vote Sinn Fein, you're voting abstention.
    And the voters who don't vote Sinn Fein? Which may even be a majority of the voters in those seats?
    Because a minority vote Sinn Fein, then the majority have no representation at all?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    nichomar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I get the 'wishful thinking' aspect of the Hungary veto idea but is it not possible Hungary has agreed to threaten veto behind the scenes as an attempt to force the EU to accept some sort of version of the Boris deal rather than no deal?

    There must be some reason the Hungarian foreign sec was attended the UK givernments Cabinet yesterday?

    That can't be normal...
    It seems interesting at very least
    Surely that would be seen as frustrating the Benn act if proven and Johnson off to jail.
    Hes under no obligation to pay any heed to the Benn act until October 19th. The UK position can be we don't want an extension up to the point of asking for one. Parliament cannot legislate what people want, believe, campaign for etc
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 35,453

    TGOHF2 said:
    I've said before, for shitz n gigglez, Boris makes Cummings our EU Commissioner...... Saying EVERYTHING the EU never wants said, but from the inside.
    Dom ? Surely Boris should appoint Nigel to commission
    They have got used to ignoring Nigel.

    Dom, though would REALLY push their buttons.....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 34,017
    TGOHF2 said:
    The thing is, if I was the EU, I'd give him the extension anyway. It doesn't cost them anything, and the can is kicked. And if Dominic did come to Brussels to negotiate, I'm sure they could find some Greek with poor English for him to negotiate with.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 15,707
    edited October 2019

    He's talking nonsense anyway. Boris needs to indicate that the Benn act will not stop us leaving, or (thanks to the pond life in the Commons) he will have no negotiating position at all. Therefore, clearly he needs to hint that there is a way, without laying it out in step by step instructions.

    We are getting needlessly overwrought on all sides.

    Fault this if you can -

    2. Any deal substantially different to the May Deal will require an article 50 extension in order for it to be closed and ratified. This is not a matter of opinion.

    2. Boris Johnson is intent on a Deal that IS substantially different to the May Deal. This IS a matter of opinion - since it relies on believing him - but surely we should believe him unless and until it becomes clear that he is lying.

    So put 2 and 2 together and what is 4?

    It is that (leaving aside the 'do or die' bluster that helps nobody) an extension of perhaps three months or thereabouts makes perfect sense from every pragmatic perspective - including Boris Johnson, assuming that he speaks in good faith when he states that he is serious about a Deal.

    And as I say, I think we should assume at this point that he DOES speak in good faith on this. We owe him that. He's the PM.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The thing is, if I was the EU, I'd give him the extension anyway. It doesn't cost them anything, and the can is kicked. And if Dominic did come to Brussels to negotiate, I'm sure they could find some Greek with poor English for him to negotiate with.
    Do they want bad will with the country that currently represents a seventh of their entire economy?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,407
    Scott_P said:
    Free clue: most of London's voters are not "individuals from all three major parties".

    Rory is a politicos' politico. I like him but his chance of breaking through in London, even with Osborne's support, is very slim.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,271
    edited October 2019
    kinabalu said:

    He's talking nonsense anyway. Boris needs to indicate that the Benn act will not stop us leaving, or (thanks to the pond life in the Commons) he will have no negotiating position at all. Therefore, clearly he needs to hint that there is a way, without laying it out in step by step instructions.

    We are getting needlessly overwrought on all sides.

    Fault this if you can -

    2. Any deal substantially different to the May Deal will require an article 50 extension beyond 31 Oct in order for it to be closed and ratified. This is not a matter of opinion.

    2. Boris Johnson is intent on a Deal that IS substantially different to the May Deal. This IS a matter of opinion - since it relies on believing him - but surely we should believe him unless and until it becomes clear that he is lying.

    So put 2 and 2 together and what is 4?

    It is that (leaving aside the 'do or die' bluster that helps nobody) an extension of perhaps three months or thereabouts makes perfect sense from every pragmatic perspective - including Boris Johnson, assuming that he speaks in good faith when he states that he is serious about a Deal.

    And as I say, I think we should assume at this point that he DOES speak in good faith on this. We owe him that. He's the PM.
    Fault this if you can - Two point 2 No point 1 :smile: Or I should have read it all first!
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,407
    edited October 2019
    kinabalu said:

    And as I say, I think we should assume at this point that he DOES speak in good faith on this. We owe him that. He's the PM.

    Assuming that the office-holder of Prime Minister speaks in good faith died with Blair, Iraq and WMDs.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,655
    edited October 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The thing is, if I was the EU, I'd give him the extension anyway. It doesn't cost them anything, and the can is kicked. And if Dominic did come to Brussels to negotiate, I'm sure they could find some Greek with poor English for him to negotiate with.
    It is the obvious move because it humiliates Johnson. Moral is not to make snidey punishment beating jokes at the expense of people who may slightly later in your career be in a position to administer punishment beatings to you.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,492

    Scott_P said:
    Yawn. Next Tweet from a bloke with an opinion please.
    He's talking nonsense anyway. Boris needs to indicate that the Benn act will not stop us leaving, or (thanks to the pond life in the Commons) he will have no negotiating position at all. Therefore, clearly he needs to hint that there is a way, without laying it out in step by step instructions.
    Is an Act that stops us leaving legal? I don't mean this Act in particular, but in general wouldn't that mean one parliament trying to bind another?

    I find it quite surprising that no leavers have tried to bring a court action that we are already in the EU unlawfully, what with Mr Brown having signed on the dotted line without the promised referendum.

    Good afternoon, everyone.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,374

    Scott_P said:
    Free clue: most of London's voters are not "individuals from all three major parties".

    Rory is a politicos' politico. I like him but his chance of breaking through in London, even with Osborne's support, is very slim.
    And many of those of those offering support will melt away like the snow in summer as the election actually approaches.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,682
    Scott_P said:
    Well, the latter point may well be true. The Conservative Party is a hollow man party now - utterly anchored from its traditional philosophy and roots and Labour is in a near-death grip of a Trot cult.

    The latter has more chance of being saved imho.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 29,365

    Oh I dunno. 'This guy from Cumbria who likes hunting foxes......' it's a good dismissal for someone wanting to be mayor. Obviously they'll go hard in brexit/no grexit too but this is the icing. Fox hunting is really really unpopular outside the countryside

    (Off-topic but...)

    The secret is that fox hunting is also really really unpopular in the countryside. I used to live in prime hunting territory (Rutland) and hunters were by and large despised as a bunch of arrogant wankers.

    Hunting support in the countryside is generally limited to (a) people who go hunting (b) people who are employed by, or are tenants on the estates of, people who go hunting (c) people who don't really support hunting but think townies should butt the hell out of the countryside (d) the Bufton-Tuftons. Of those I'd say that (c) is easily the largest group.
    Nah the largest group is (e)

    (e) don't really give a toss so long as they keep out of my way
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,636
    Johnson is going to try and frustrate the act, not be successful at doing so, write the letter, get the extension and be in trouble with the courts.

  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,260
    kinabalu said:

    He's talking nonsense anyway. Boris needs to indicate that the Benn act will not stop us leaving, or (thanks to the pond life in the Commons) he will have no negotiating position at all. Therefore, clearly he needs to hint that there is a way, without laying it out in step by step instructions.

    We are getting needlessly overwrought on all sides.

    Fault this if you can -

    2. Any deal substantially different to the May Deal will require an article 50 extension in order for it to be closed and ratified. This is not a matter of opinion.

    2. Boris Johnson is intent on a Deal that IS substantially different to the May Deal. This IS a matter of opinion - since it relies on believing him - but surely we should believe him unless and until it becomes clear that he is lying.

    So put 2 and 2 together and what is 4?

    It is that (leaving aside the 'do or die' bluster that helps nobody) an extension of perhaps three months or thereabouts makes perfect sense from every pragmatic perspective - including Boris Johnson, assuming that he speaks in good faith when he states that he is serious about a Deal.

    And as I say, I think we should assume at this point that he DOES speak in good faith on this. We owe him that. He's the PM.
    Saw what you did there thought we’d all go there’s no no1
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,271
    nichomar said:

    kinabalu said:

    He's talking nonsense anyway. Boris needs to indicate that the Benn act will not stop us leaving, or (thanks to the pond life in the Commons) he will have no negotiating position at all. Therefore, clearly he needs to hint that there is a way, without laying it out in step by step instructions.

    We are getting needlessly overwrought on all sides.

    Fault this if you can -

    2. Any deal substantially different to the May Deal will require an article 50 extension in order for it to be closed and ratified. This is not a matter of opinion.

    2. Boris Johnson is intent on a Deal that IS substantially different to the May Deal. This IS a matter of opinion - since it relies on believing him - but surely we should believe him unless and until it becomes clear that he is lying.

    So put 2 and 2 together and what is 4?

    It is that (leaving aside the 'do or die' bluster that helps nobody) an extension of perhaps three months or thereabouts makes perfect sense from every pragmatic perspective - including Boris Johnson, assuming that he speaks in good faith when he states that he is serious about a Deal.

    And as I say, I think we should assume at this point that he DOES speak in good faith on this. We owe him that. He's the PM.
    Saw what you did there thought we’d all go there’s no no1
    I did!
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited October 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Johnson is going to try and frustrate the act, not be successful at doing so, write the letter, get the extension and be in trouble with the courts.

    He has to seek an extension on Oct 19th. Hes not obliged to do anything in support of that before that time. Parliament cannot legislate for that. Unless they also want to legislate when he takes a whizz and what football team he supports and *insert parliament overreach here*
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,655

    rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The thing is, if I was the EU, I'd give him the extension anyway. It doesn't cost them anything, and the can is kicked. And if Dominic did come to Brussels to negotiate, I'm sure they could find some Greek with poor English for him to negotiate with.
    Do they want bad will with the country that currently represents a seventh of their entire economy?
    It doesn't, it represents a seventh of {their economy plus the UK}, which is not the same thing. And the bad will is there anyway, so there's no point fine tuning your actions in a vain attempt to make it go away. And giving an extension looks a lot more good willed than refusing one.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 15,707
    edited October 2019

    Assuming that the office-holder of Prime Minister speaks in good faith died with Blair, Iraq and WMDs.

    That's a point. However I don't think we should assume bad faith until we have to. So, if he were to abandon efforts to get a Deal, then yes, Boris the Bullshitter, and we activate punishment procedures. But, as yet, he hasn't done that. He's telling us he's hot on the trail of a Deal.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 29,365
    Ishmael_Z said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The thing is, if I was the EU, I'd give him the extension anyway. It doesn't cost them anything, and the can is kicked. And if Dominic did come to Brussels to negotiate, I'm sure they could find some Greek with poor English for him to negotiate with.
    It is the obvious move because it humiliates Johnson. Moral is not to make snidey punishment beating jokes at the expense of people who may slightly later in your career be in a position to administer punishment beatings to you.
    Why would you humiliate someone you are currently in an active negotiation with?

    It would be unprofessional and counterproductive.
  • Very sad to see Rory's career end in this way - and what an devastating day for the Conservative Party. Ever since Rory launched that big national data gathering excercise a few months ago it was clear something like this was on the cards - but Mayor of London ? Very odd.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,311
    Good afternoon, my fellow visitors to Metebelis III.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 18,859

    On topic
    Fox hunting fan. In London.
    Avoid with betting $$$

    I don't expect his programme will include setting up meets in Kensington Gardens, although to be fair anything which helped reduce the nuisance of foxes on London streets should be quite popular.
    No, but it will be hammered at by Khan. The Tory manifesto bilge of a foxy free vote was part of the 2017 debacle. Rory attends (legal) hunt meetings and is a keen pro hunter. It will go down in metropolitan luvvie millenial London like a cup of cold sick
    I really don't think it will make the slightest difference. Not everyone is obsessed with this minor issue, it is of zero relevance to London, Khan won't waste campaigning bandwidth on it, and those that are obsessed with it were never going to vote for Rory or any other Tory or ex-Tory in the first place.
    A few thoughts:-

    1. A shame Rory will be leaving Cumbria. He was a good spokesman for his constituency.
    2. He must be assuming that there will be a GE before next May. Either that or he will resign his seat and there will be a by-election. Otherwise he can't possibly combine being London Mayor (assuming he wins, unlikely as that may be) with being a Cumbrian MP.
    3. He voted to Remain but has accepted the referendum result. That does allow him to say to the Lib Dems that he respects the result unlike them. Even people like me who have turned towards the Lib Dems and who would prefer to remain are uneasy about a policy to revoke Art 50 without more and even more uneasy about Swinson's statement that if there were to be a referendum with another Leave result she would ignore it.
    4. How much this will matter depends on whether there has been a deal or an extension by next May. He can say, unlike the Lib Dems, that he has voted for a deal precisely because he wanted to avoid No Deal. He didn't just talk on this; he voted in accordance with what he was saying and for something. That makes him relatively rare amongst many of those who are loudest in complaining about a No Deal Brexit.
    5. As an ex-prisons Minister he has interesting stuff to say on crime and this is where Khan could be vulnerable.

    The odds are against him but I welcome his entrance into the race.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Ishmael_Z said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The thing is, if I was the EU, I'd give him the extension anyway. It doesn't cost them anything, and the can is kicked. And if Dominic did come to Brussels to negotiate, I'm sure they could find some Greek with poor English for him to negotiate with.
    Do they want bad will with the country that currently represents a seventh of their entire economy?
    It doesn't, it represents a seventh of {their economy plus the UK}, which is not the same thing. And the bad will is there anyway, so there's no point fine tuning your actions in a vain attempt to make it go away. And giving an extension looks a lot more good willed than refusing one.
    We are currently in the EU, it does indeed represent a seventh of their entire current economy
  • felixfelix Posts: 11,182
    That Scottish election result may be a straw in the wind that the Tory vote in at least some parts of Scotland could be more resilient than some have assumed.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,655
    Charles said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The thing is, if I was the EU, I'd give him the extension anyway. It doesn't cost them anything, and the can is kicked. And if Dominic did come to Brussels to negotiate, I'm sure they could find some Greek with poor English for him to negotiate with.
    It is the obvious move because it humiliates Johnson. Moral is not to make snidey punishment beating jokes at the expense of people who may slightly later in your career be in a position to administer punishment beatings to you.
    Why would you humiliate someone you are currently in an active negotiation with?

    It would be unprofessional and counterproductive.
    The EU is in negotiations with the UK, not with Boris Johnson. It would be an entirely rational strategy to do things which you hoped might lead to his replacement as the UKs mouthpiece by someone you felt you could deal more constructively with.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,636
    Cyclefree said:

    On topic
    Fox hunting fan. In London.
    Avoid with betting $$$

    I don't expect his programme will include setting up meets in Kensington Gardens, although to be fair anything which helped reduce the nuisance of foxes on London streets should be quite popular.
    No, but it will be hammered at by Khan. The Tory manifesto bilge of a foxy free vote was part of the 2017 debacle. Rory attends (legal) hunt meetings and is a keen pro hunter. It will go down in metropolitan luvvie millenial London like a cup of cold sick
    I really don't think it will make the slightest difference. Not everyone is obsessed with this minor issue, it is of zero relevance to London, Khan won't waste campaigning bandwidth on it, and those that are obsessed with it were never going to vote for Rory or any other Tory or ex-Tory in the first place.
    A few thoughts:-

    1. A shame Rory will be leaving Cumbria. He was a good spokesman for his constituency.
    2. He must be assuming that there will be a GE before next May. Either that or he will resign his seat and there will be a by-election. Otherwise he can't possibly combine being London Mayor (assuming he wins, unlikely as that may be) with being a Cumbrian MP.
    3. He voted to Remain but has accepted the referendum result. That does allow him to say to the Lib Dems that he respects the result unlike them. Even people like me who have turned towards the Lib Dems and who would prefer to remain are uneasy about a policy to revoke Art 50 without more and even more uneasy about Swinson's statement that if there were to be a referendum with another Leave result she would ignore it.
    4. How much this will matter depends on whether there has been a deal or an extension by next May. He can say, unlike the Lib Dems, that he has voted for a deal precisely because he wanted to avoid No Deal. He didn't just talk on this; he voted in accordance with what he was saying and for something. That makes him relatively rare amongst many of those who are loudest in complaining about a No Deal Brexit.
    5. As an ex-prisons Minister he has interesting stuff to say on crime and this is where Khan could be vulnerable.

    The odds are against him but I welcome his entrance into the race.
    He'll appeal to yourself, Nabavi, thewhiterabbit, Eagles, I might have voted for him if I was in London too.
    But it's a niche, sui generis intersection of the population in favour of May's deal, wet Tory opposed to both No deal, revocation and a further referendum.
    He's far too pro Brexit for London in my opinion.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Charles said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The thing is, if I was the EU, I'd give him the extension anyway. It doesn't cost them anything, and the can is kicked. And if Dominic did come to Brussels to negotiate, I'm sure they could find some Greek with poor English for him to negotiate with.
    It is the obvious move because it humiliates Johnson. Moral is not to make snidey punishment beating jokes at the expense of people who may slightly later in your career be in a position to administer punishment beatings to you.
    Why would you humiliate someone you are currently in an active negotiation with?

    It would be unprofessional and counterproductive.
    The EU is in negotiations with the UK, not with Boris Johnson. It would be an entirely rational strategy to do things which you hoped might lead to his replacement as the UKs mouthpiece by someone you felt you could deal more constructively with.
    Regime change is never a sensible policy
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Charles said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The thing is, if I was the EU, I'd give him the extension anyway. It doesn't cost them anything, and the can is kicked. And if Dominic did come to Brussels to negotiate, I'm sure they could find some Greek with poor English for him to negotiate with.
    It is the obvious move because it humiliates Johnson. Moral is not to make snidey punishment beating jokes at the expense of people who may slightly later in your career be in a position to administer punishment beatings to you.
    Why would you humiliate someone you are currently in an active negotiation with?

    It would be unprofessional and counterproductive.
    The EU is in negotiations with the UK, not with Boris Johnson. It would be an entirely rational strategy to do things which you hoped might lead to his replacement as the UKs mouthpiece by someone you felt you could deal more constructively with.
    I wish I knew how to insert an image of the Mouth of Sauron.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mouth_of_Sauron#/media/File:The_Mouth_of_Sauron.jpg
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,374
    Cyclefree said:

    On topic
    Fox hunting fan. In London.
    Avoid with betting $$$

    I don't expect his programme will include setting up meets in Kensington Gardens, although to be fair anything which helped reduce the nuisance of foxes on London streets should be quite popular.
    No, but it will be hammered at by Khan. The Tory manifesto bilge of a foxy free vote was part of the 2017 debacle. Rory attends (legal) hunt meetings and is a keen pro hunter. It will go down in metropolitan luvvie millenial London like a cup of cold sick
    I really don't think it will make the slightest difference. Not everyone is obsessed with this minor issue, it is of zero relevance to London, Khan won't waste campaigning bandwidth on it, and those that are obsessed with it were never going to vote for Rory or any other Tory or ex-Tory in the first place.
    A few thoughts:-

    1. A shame Rory will be leaving Cumbria. He was a good spokesman for his constituency.
    2. He must be assuming that there will be a GE before next May. Either that or he will resign his seat and there will be a by-election. Otherwise he can't possibly combine being London Mayor (assuming he wins, unlikely as that may be) with being a Cumbrian MP.
    3. He voted to Remain but has accepted the referendum result. That does allow him to say to the Lib Dems that he respects the result unlike them. Even people like me who have turned towards the Lib Dems and who would prefer to remain are uneasy about a policy to revoke Art 50 without more and even more uneasy about Swinson's statement that if there were to be a referendum with another Leave result she would ignore it.
    4. How much this will matter depends on whether there has been a deal or an extension by next May. He can say, unlike the Lib Dems, that he has voted for a deal precisely because he wanted to avoid No Deal. He didn't just talk on this; he voted in accordance with what he was saying and for something. That makes him relatively rare amongst many of those who are loudest in complaining about a No Deal Brexit.
    5. As an ex-prisons Minister he has interesting stuff to say on crime and this is where Khan could be vulnerable.

    The odds are against him but I welcome his entrance into the race.
    We are very fortunate, Ms Cyclefree, that you continue to post. Much more thoughtful than many of the posters.

    (You can send the cheque later!)
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,271
    edited October 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Johnson is going to try and frustrate the act, not be successful at doing so, write the letter, get the extension and be in trouble with the courts.

    There will certainly be new and additional revenue raising experiences for the legal profession based on the Benn Bill and the fallout from it.

    Whatever Johnson does, I anticipate it will be challenged.

    Is there any control or clarity on what PM may do, say or write before the specified date, in the Bill or in the spirit of the Bill?

    I would make an assumption that the restrictions that apply to the letter (wording and accompanying letters etc) will also apply after the specified date up to the 31st October.

    However there is a grey area which is discussions.

    Should new best mate Victor ask "Boris, thanks for the letter, but do you personally want to extend?"
    How should an honest PM respond?

    And many other examples could be dragged up.

    My confident expectation is the Bill will result in a combination of new legal cases and appeals, divergence of opinion of accepted implementation, some unintended consequences and probably not making a lot of difference to the final destination.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,636
    Charles said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The thing is, if I was the EU, I'd give him the extension anyway. It doesn't cost them anything, and the can is kicked. And if Dominic did come to Brussels to negotiate, I'm sure they could find some Greek with poor English for him to negotiate with.
    It is the obvious move because it humiliates Johnson. Moral is not to make snidey punishment beating jokes at the expense of people who may slightly later in your career be in a position to administer punishment beatings to you.
    Why would you humiliate someone you are currently in an active negotiation with?

    It would be unprofessional and counterproductive.
    They might be negotiating with Corbyn come January.
  • dyingswandyingswan Posts: 189
    What is this obsession with who writes the extension letter? The letter is a lie anyway. It purports to be a request from the PM. It is not. It is not from the government. It is not from the Cabinet. It may as well be signed by its actual instigators in the HOC or even better John Bercow on their behalf. I hope that the letter meets a fitting end-burnt in the grate at Downing St or given to the Downing St dog.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 29,365
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Charles said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The thing is, if I was the EU, I'd give him the extension anyway. It doesn't cost them anything, and the can is kicked. And if Dominic did come to Brussels to negotiate, I'm sure they could find some Greek with poor English for him to negotiate with.
    It is the obvious move because it humiliates Johnson. Moral is not to make snidey punishment beating jokes at the expense of people who may slightly later in your career be in a position to administer punishment beatings to you.
    Why would you humiliate someone you are currently in an active negotiation with?

    It would be unprofessional and counterproductive.
    The EU is in negotiations with the UK, not with Boris Johnson. It would be an entirely rational strategy to do things which you hoped might lead to his replacement as the UKs mouthpiece by someone you felt you could deal more constructively with.
    Only if you are certain it would be successful. If you are going to strike you need to kill.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,520
    I think Rory is a clear lay at 3.6. Popular in the media, and probably quite a good campaigner, but ultimately too many major political vulnerabilities.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,407
    Cyclefree said:

    3. He voted to Remain but has accepted the referendum result. That does allow him to say to the Lib Dems that he respects the result unlike them.

    I think you mean "unlike London voters, who still want to remain".

    I'm not convinced that's a compelling electoral pitch.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 7,815
    edited October 2019
    felix said:

    That Scottish election result may be a straw in the wind that the Tory vote in at least some parts of Scotland could be more resilient than some have assumed.

    If it's Bridge of Don that you mean, I find it hard to be sure. The votes are mostly coming from a previous 'Independent'. and in that sort of context it tend to be the I'm-a-Tory-but-pretend-I'm-not-a-Tory kind, not the SNP or Cromwellian kind. So basically a split in the conservative vote has been removed, ditto LD vote, and the now released votes have gone to Pukka Tory and Swinsonian LD almost exactly equally.

    Edit: Maybe someone who knows the area can comment?

    Ed it again: my 'rustic' and 'rural' wrong and deleted - I was thinkign of other |Bridges of - but certainly suburban.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,690
    edited October 2019
    dyingswan said:

    What is this obsession with who writes the extension letter? The letter is a lie anyway. It purports to be a request from the PM. It is not. It is not from the government. It is not from the Cabinet. It may as well be signed by its actual instigators in the HOC or even better John Bercow on their behalf. I hope that the letter meets a fitting end-burnt in the grate at Downing St or given to the Downing St dog.

    Indeed.

    Which is why the idea that Boris sending the letter under duress and threat of imprisonment by Remainer MPs will mean he gets blamed in the same way May did is nonsense.

    Question is, if Boris does send the letter will the Opposition then agree to the election as promised? Or will they wait for the opinion polls to start moving? ;)
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,655

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The thing is, if I was the EU, I'd give him the extension anyway. It doesn't cost them anything, and the can is kicked. And if Dominic did come to Brussels to negotiate, I'm sure they could find some Greek with poor English for him to negotiate with.
    Do they want bad will with the country that currently represents a seventh of their entire economy?
    It doesn't, it represents a seventh of {their economy plus the UK}, which is not the same thing. And the bad will is there anyway, so there's no point fine tuning your actions in a vain attempt to make it go away. And giving an extension looks a lot more good willed than refusing one.
    We are currently in the EU, it does indeed represent a seventh of their entire current economy
    No, you were replying to the point that "The thing is, if I was the EU, I'd give him the extension anyway," so the reference is clearly to the 27 out of 28 nations, or sixth sevenths of the EU economy on your figures, whose decision it is whether to grant an extension or not. Are you HYUFD in disguise?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 18,859
    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:




    3. He voted to Remain but has accepted the referendum result. That does allow him to say to the Lib Dems that he respects the result unlike them. Even people like me who have turned towards the Lib Dems and who would prefer to remain are uneasy about a policy to revoke Art 50 without more and even more uneasy about Swinson's statement that if there were to be a referendum with another Leave result she would ignore it.
    4. How much this will matter depends on whether there has been a deal or an extension by next May. He can say, unlike the Lib Dems, that he has voted for a deal precisely because he wanted to avoid No Deal. He didn't just talk on this; he voted in accordance with what he was saying and for something. That makes him relatively rare amongst many of those who are loudest in complaining about a No Deal Brexit.
    5. As an ex-prisons Minister he has interesting stuff to say on crime and this is where Khan could be vulnerable.

    The odds are against him but I welcome his entrance into the race.
    He'll appeal to yourself, Nabavi, thewhiterabbit, Eagles, I might have voted for him if I was in London too.
    But it's a niche, sui generis intersection of the population in favour of May's deal, wet Tory opposed to both No deal, revocation and a further referendum.
    He's far too pro Brexit for London in my opinion.
    I'm not particularly in favour of May's deal. Just very against a No Deal exit. I'd be OK with another referendum. It may well be the least bad option now available.

    If the Lib Dems were to win an election outright you can easily argue that the country has changed its mind and therefore it is OK to revoke Article 50. But while I understand that they are going for the Remain vote unambiguously I am not convinced. You cannot just pretend that the referendum didn't happen. If we remained we still have to address the issues that gave rise to the vote. The Lib Dems do not appear to have given thought to that. They give the impression that it was all a horrible mistake which can be just ignored as if it never happened. And it can't. Serious thought now needs to be given by those who want to Remain on what this actually means. The status quo - let alone the status quo ante - simply isn't an option anymore.

    I couldn't care less about hunting. I wish the bloody foxes in my street would stop making such a racket with their noisy sex at 3 am, though.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,655
    Charles said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Charles said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The thing is, if I was the EU, I'd give him the extension anyway. It doesn't cost them anything, and the can is kicked. And if Dominic did come to Brussels to negotiate, I'm sure they could find some Greek with poor English for him to negotiate with.
    It is the obvious move because it humiliates Johnson. Moral is not to make snidey punishment beating jokes at the expense of people who may slightly later in your career be in a position to administer punishment beatings to you.
    Why would you humiliate someone you are currently in an active negotiation with?

    It would be unprofessional and counterproductive.
    The EU is in negotiations with the UK, not with Boris Johnson. It would be an entirely rational strategy to do things which you hoped might lead to his replacement as the UKs mouthpiece by someone you felt you could deal more constructively with.
    Only if you are certain it would be successful. If you are going to strike you need to kill.
    An argument against never in any circumstances doing anything whatever, given the impossibility of ever knowing what will work and what won't without trying it.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 29,365

    Cyclefree said:

    3. He voted to Remain but has accepted the referendum result. That does allow him to say to the Lib Dems that he respects the result unlike them.

    I think you mean "unlike London voters, who still want to remain".

    I'm not convinced that's a compelling electoral pitch.
    Somewhere between 30-40% of Londoners support leaving

    If the LDs and Labour chew each other up he could sneak through. Narrow path but not impossible
  • Big loss for Cumbria. On most metrics Rory is its best MP. A widely misconcieved county with huge demographic and economic challenges it needs good MPs. If he want to use his national fame and capacity he could have mounted a very serious local challlenge as an Independent MP candidate. And he'd be far more likely to be reelected than elected Mayor of London. Very frustrating.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 18,859

    Cyclefree said:

    On topic
    Fox hunting fan. In London.
    Avoid with betting $$$

    I don't expect his programme will include setting up meets in Kensington Gardens, although to be fair anything which helped reduce the nuisance of foxes on London streets should be quite popular.
    No, but it will be hammered at by Khan. The Tory manifesto bilge of a foxy free vote was part of the 2017 debacle. Rory attends (legal) hunt meetings and is a keen pro hunter. It will go down in metropolitan luvvie millenial London like a cup of cold sick
    I really don't think it will make the slightest difference. Not everyone is obsessed with this minor issue, it is of zero relevance to London, Khan won't waste campaigning bandwidth on it, and those that are obsessed with it were never going to vote for Rory or any other Tory or ex-Tory in the first place.
    A few thoughts:-

    1. A shame Rory will be leaving Cumbria. He was a good spokesman for his constituency.
    2. He must be assuming that there will be a GE before next May. Either that or he will resign his seat and there will be a by-election. Otherwise he can't possibly combine being London Mayor (assuming he wins, unlikely as that may be) with being a Cumbrian MP.
    3. He voted to Remain but has accepted the referendum result. That does allow him to say to the Lib Dems that he respects the result unlike them. Even people like me who have turned towards the Lib Dems and who would prefer to remain are uneasy about a policy to revoke Art 50 without more and even more uneasy about Swinson's statement that if there were to be a referendum with another Leave result she would ignore it.
    4. How much this will matter depends on whether there has been a deal or an extension by next May. He can say, unlike the Lib Dems, that he has voted for a deal precisely because he wanted to avoid No Deal. He didn't just talk on this; he voted in accordance with what he was saying and for something. That makes him relatively rare amongst many of those who are loudest in complaining about a No Deal Brexit.
    5. As an ex-prisons Minister he has interesting stuff to say on crime and this is where Khan could be vulnerable.

    The odds are against him but I welcome his entrance into the race.
    We are very fortunate, Ms Cyclefree, that you continue to post. Much more thoughtful than many of the posters.

    (You can send the cheque later!)
    I will treat you to the coffee of your choice (sprinkled with chocolate marshmallows and pineapple slices for all I care) - and even cake - the next time you visit this wonderful place!!
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,655

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Charles said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The thing is, if I was the EU, I'd give him the extension anyway. It doesn't cost them anything, and the can is kicked. And if Dominic did come to Brussels to negotiate, I'm sure they could find some Greek with poor English for him to negotiate with.
    It is the obvious move because it humiliates Johnson. Moral is not to make snidey punishment beating jokes at the expense of people who may slightly later in your career be in a position to administer punishment beatings to you.
    Why would you humiliate someone you are currently in an active negotiation with?

    It would be unprofessional and counterproductive.
    The EU is in negotiations with the UK, not with Boris Johnson. It would be an entirely rational strategy to do things which you hoped might lead to his replacement as the UKs mouthpiece by someone you felt you could deal more constructively with.
    Regime change is never a sensible policy
    Hitler, Mussolini, Amin, Ceausescu.

    Cracking point.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The thing is, if I was the EU, I'd give him the extension anyway. It doesn't cost them anything, and the can is kicked. And if Dominic did come to Brussels to negotiate, I'm sure they could find some Greek with poor English for him to negotiate with.
    Do they want bad will with the country that currently represents a seventh of their entire economy?
    It doesn't, it represents a seventh of {their economy plus the UK}, which is not the same thing. And the bad will is there anyway, so there's no point fine tuning your actions in a vain attempt to make it go away. And giving an extension looks a lot more good willed than refusing one.
    We are currently in the EU, it does indeed represent a seventh of their entire current economy
    No, you were replying to the point that "The thing is, if I was the EU, I'd give him the extension anyway," so the reference is clearly to the 27 out of 28 nations, or sixth sevenths of the EU economy on your figures, whose decision it is whether to grant an extension or not. Are you HYUFD in disguise?
    What is this semantics central? The UK represents a seventh of the EU economy. So it's a factor they need to consider before pissing us off. That's my point. Regardless of whether we are inside or outside, the size of the UK economy is what it is and is a factor the EU need to consider.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Charles said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The thing is, if I was the EU, I'd give him the extension anyway. It doesn't cost them anything, and the can is kicked. And if Dominic did come to Brussels to negotiate, I'm sure they could find some Greek with poor English for him to negotiate with.
    It is the obvious move because it humiliates Johnson. Moral is not to make snidey punishment beating jokes at the expense of people who may slightly later in your career be in a position to administer punishment beatings to you.
    Why would you humiliate someone you are currently in an active negotiation with?

    It would be unprofessional and counterproductive.
    The EU is in negotiations with the UK, not with Boris Johnson. It would be an entirely rational strategy to do things which you hoped might lead to his replacement as the UKs mouthpiece by someone you felt you could deal more constructively with.
    Regime change is never a sensible policy
    Hitler, Mussolini, Amin, Ceausescu.

    Cracking point.
    Ok I'll clarify, regime change in a democratic ally is never a sensible policy.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 18,859

    Big loss for Cumbria. On most metrics Rory is its best MP. A widely misconcieved county with huge demographic and economic challenges it needs good MPs. If he want to use his national fame and capacity he could have mounted a very serious local challlenge as an Independent MP candidate. And he'd be far more likely to be reelected than elected Mayor of London. Very frustrating.

    Agreed. Not at all sure he would have been re-elected and from some of the stuff he's been saying to local papers it sounds as if he did not want to break up existing relationships and friendships. Being elected as an independent is very difficult indeed. I think it is very sad that people like him no longer see a home for themselves within the Tory party which is now the Brexit Party in all but name.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 44,395
    edited October 2019
    Would there be anything to make the following letter to the EU be unlawful?

    Dear Jean Claude Juncker and Ursula von der Leyen,

    Under the terms of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act (No 2) 2019 the Parliament of Westminster has instructed the UK goverment to send you a letter requesting an extension, please see attached.

    You are aware of the UK government's opinion regarding an extension but if an extension is granted the United Kingdom government will be required to nominate a new EU Commissioner. If an extension is granted then the United Kingdom intends to nominate Nigel Farage MEP as European Commissioner.

    Your Sincerely,
    Boris Johnson,
    Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.


    If the nominee is required to be a Tory for some reason maybe replace with Bill Cash or Iain Duncan Smith etc
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,271
    Scott_P said:
    Semantics were mentioned below.

    Why is 'White Flag' acceptable but 'Surrender' is outrageous?
  • I can't help thinking that promising a workarond for the Benn Act and then not delivering one is goin to be pretty damaging for Johnson/Cummings.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The government case is falling apart in the Scottish Court .



  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,690

    I can't help thinking that promising a workarond for the Benn Act and then not delivering one is goin to be pretty damaging for Johnson/Cummings.

    It may take off 2-3% of Con's poll rating in the days after... But they'll soon get it back in an election campaign as Brexiteers realize this is their one last chance to secure Brexit and stick it to the Remainer elite.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,090

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Charles said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The thing is, if I was the EU, I'd give him the extension anyway. It doesn't cost them anything, and the can is kicked. And if Dominic did come to Brussels to negotiate, I'm sure they could find some Greek with poor English for him to negotiate with.
    It is the obvious move because it humiliates Johnson. Moral is not to make snidey punishment beating jokes at the expense of people who may slightly later in your career be in a position to administer punishment beatings to you.
    Why would you humiliate someone you are currently in an active negotiation with?

    It would be unprofessional and counterproductive.
    The EU is in negotiations with the UK, not with Boris Johnson. It would be an entirely rational strategy to do things which you hoped might lead to his replacement as the UKs mouthpiece by someone you felt you could deal more constructively with.
    Regime change is never a sensible policy
    Hitler, Mussolini, Amin, Ceausescu.

    Cracking point.
    Ok I'll clarify, regime change in a democratic ally is never a sensible policy.
    Regime change isn't essential. Johnson could be the next Tsipras.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 20,374
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On topic
    Fox hunting fan. In London.
    Avoid with betting $$$

    I don't expect his programme will include setting up meets in Kensington Gardens, although to be fair anything which helped reduce the nuisance of foxes on London streets should be quite popular.
    No, but it will be hammered at by Khan. The Tory manifesto bilge of a foxy free vote was part of the 2017 debacle. Rory attends (legal) hunt meetings and is a keen pro hunter. It will go down in metropolitan luvvie millenial London like a cup of cold sick
    .
    A few thoughts:-

    1. A shame Rory will be leaving Cumbria. He was a good spokesman for his constituency.
    2. He must be assuming that there will be a GE before next May. Either that or he will resign his seat and there will be a by-election. Otherwise he can't possibly combine being London Mayor (assuming he wins, unlikely as that may be) with being a Cumbrian MP.
    3. He voted to Remain but has accepted the referendum result. That does allow him to say to the Lib Dems that he respects the result unlike them. Even people like me who have turned towards the Lib Dems and who would prefer to remain are uneasy about a policy to revoke Art 50 without more and even more uneasy about Swinson's statement that if there were to be a referendum with another Leave result she would ignore it.
    4. How much this will matter depends on whether there has been a deal or an extension by next May. He can say, unlike the Lib Dems, that he has voted for a deal precisely because he wanted to avoid No Deal. He didn't just talk on this; he voted in accordance with what he was saying and for something. That makes him relatively rare amongst many of those who are loudest in complaining about a No Deal Brexit.
    5. As an ex-prisons Minister he has interesting stuff to say on crime and this is where Khan could be vulnerable.

    The odds are against him but I welcome his entrance into the race.
    We are very fortunate, Ms Cyclefree, that you continue to post. Much more thoughtful than many of the posters.

    (You can send the cheque later!)
    I will treat you to the coffee of your choice (sprinkled with chocolate marshmallows and pineapple slices for all I care) - and even cake - the next time you visit this wonderful place!!
    Very kind. Thanks. However, I take my coffee as it supposed to be; black and unadorned.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 2,629
    edited October 2019
    AnneJGP said:

    Scott_P said:
    Yawn. Next Tweet from a bloke with an opinion please.
    He's talking nonsense anyway. Boris needs to indicate that the Benn act will not stop us leaving, or (thanks to the pond life in the Commons) he will have no negotiating position at all. Therefore, clearly he needs to hint that there is a way, without laying it out in step by step instructions.
    Is an Act that stops us leaving legal? I don't mean this Act in particular, but in general wouldn't that mean one parliament trying to bind another?

    I find it quite surprising that no leavers have tried to bring a court action that we are already in the EU unlawfully, what with Mr Brown having signed on the dotted line without the promised referendum.

    Good afternoon, everyone.
    The concept of no Parliament being able to bind a successor is simply that an Act cannot stipulate that it may not be repealed by a future Parliament.

    So you could, in theory, pass an Act requiring repeated extension of the leaving date (unless and until a deal is reached or the EU refuse an extension) and that could continue into a future Parliament. But, crucially, the future Parliament could change or repeal that Act.

    And, of course, there is lots of legislation passed many years ago by previous Parliaments that "bind" Parliament to the extent that they impact on its process and what it and the Government is able to do (but which they could repeal). The European Communities Act 1972 to give one example, and the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011 to give another.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 7,815
    nico67 said:

    The government case is falling apart in the Scottish Court .



    Refusing to provide signed affidavits may not (again) go down well.

    But no judgement yet.

    Useful summary thread here (and the one after it)

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 37,682

    Big loss for Cumbria. On most metrics Rory is its best MP. A widely misconcieved county with huge demographic and economic challenges it needs good MPs. If he want to use his national fame and capacity he could have mounted a very serious local challlenge as an Independent MP candidate. And he'd be far more likely to be reelected than elected Mayor of London. Very frustrating.

    Yep. I sort of agree. But the London media will now report his en marche far more than any bid he made in Cumbria.

    Plus he says he did not want to stand against old tory mates in Cumbria. Presumably the newly selected candidate will be a local constituency worker and not some parachute job.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    RE the London mayor
    The AV voting system really doesn't lend itself to a competitive(ish) four+ horse race.

    If the Tory vote splits between 1Rory2Bailey and vice versa it is possible that neither of them makes the top 2, and the LibDem doesn't get any benefit of Tory/Rory transfers and there is a large block of wasted votes.

    Which to a degree would make the polling key if people wanted to vote in a way that wasn't ultimately wasteful. Now I could well see the Evening Standard under Osborne being a cheerleader for Rory, and maybe one of the main commissioners of public polls, which could help Rory, but on the other hand you would have to assume there are a block of people out there who will vote for whoever has "Conservative" next to them on the ballot paper.

    This has to point to Khan being a very strong buy.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Would there be anything to make the following letter to the EU be unlawful?

    Dear Jean Claude Juncker and Ursula von der Leyen,

    Under the terms of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act (No 2) 2019 the Parliament of Westminster has instructed the UK goverment to send you a letter requesting an extension, please see attached.

    You are aware of the UK government's opinion regarding an extension but if an extension is granted the United Kingdom government will be required to nominate a new EU Commissioner. If an extension is granted then the United Kingdom intends to nominate Nigel Farage MEP as European Commissioner.

    Your Sincerely,
    Boris Johnson,
    Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.


    If the nominee is required to be a Tory for some reason maybe replace with Bill Cash or Iain Duncan Smith etc

    EU law requires all Commissioners to uphold the principles of the Treaties, including that of working towards ever closer union. It thus isn't legal for a eurosceptic to be a Commissioner and the European Parliament would vote him down on that basis.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 54,311
    Imitating Honorius' approach to Stilicho would not be an edifying spectacle.

    For those unaware, unlikely as that seems, Stilicho was a half-Vandal general and one of Rome's (Western, that is) last great generals. Honorius, being a cretin, was trying to get him killed so he sought sanctuary in a church. Only emerging when a letter from the emperor promised safe conduct, he was not delighted to discover that a second letter had been written annulling the contents of the first.

    I'd considered getting a biography of Stilicho, but never got around to it... did consider using that anecdote for the basis of another PB article but didn't think there was a sufficiency of meat.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,636
    The Gov't probably wants to lose the "Nobile officium" case. The optics of having a Scottish court send the letter would be good for them.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 35,453
    Gabs2 said:

    Would there be anything to make the following letter to the EU be unlawful?

    Dear Jean Claude Juncker and Ursula von der Leyen,

    Under the terms of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act (No 2) 2019 the Parliament of Westminster has instructed the UK goverment to send you a letter requesting an extension, please see attached.

    You are aware of the UK government's opinion regarding an extension but if an extension is granted the United Kingdom government will be required to nominate a new EU Commissioner. If an extension is granted then the United Kingdom intends to nominate Nigel Farage MEP as European Commissioner.

    Your Sincerely,
    Boris Johnson,
    Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.


    If the nominee is required to be a Tory for some reason maybe replace with Bill Cash or Iain Duncan Smith etc

    EU law requires all Commissioners to uphold the principles of the Treaties, including that of working towards ever closer union. It thus isn't legal for a eurosceptic to be a Commissioner and the European Parliament would vote him down on that basis.
    The optics of that would hurt Boris how?
  • I agree Rory is a big lay oppertunity. He'll get huge nedia coverage, raise loads of money, shine in all the debates and will quickly be judged to be the best candidate then the best actual Mayor ( which on some metrics he is ). He'll then save his deposit and get an objectively very resppectable result for an Independent coming from a 7 month standing start but relatively underperform the hype. I'd be looking at Betfair lay oppertunities associated with media bubbles and early polling surges.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    GIN1138 said:

    dyingswan said:

    What is this obsession with who writes the extension letter? The letter is a lie anyway. It purports to be a request from the PM. It is not. It is not from the government. It is not from the Cabinet. It may as well be signed by its actual instigators in the HOC or even better John Bercow on their behalf. I hope that the letter meets a fitting end-burnt in the grate at Downing St or given to the Downing St dog.

    Indeed.

    Which is why the idea that Boris sending the letter under duress and threat of imprisonment by Remainer MPs will mean he gets blamed in the same way May did is nonsense.

    Question is, if Boris does send the letter will the Opposition then agree to the election as promised? Or will they wait for the opinion polls to start moving? ;)
    On Twitter today, Julia Hartley Brewer, Isabel Oakshott and Andrew Lilico have all said they would withdraw their support for Boris if he extends. It isn't viable.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,690
    Just think if an election is agreed week starting 21st October this stinking, rotten Parliament could be wrapped up three weeks today (25th October) :D
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,090

    Gabs2 said:

    Would there be anything to make the following letter to the EU be unlawful?

    Dear Jean Claude Juncker and Ursula von der Leyen,

    Under the terms of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act (No 2) 2019 the Parliament of Westminster has instructed the UK goverment to send you a letter requesting an extension, please see attached.

    You are aware of the UK government's opinion regarding an extension but if an extension is granted the United Kingdom government will be required to nominate a new EU Commissioner. If an extension is granted then the United Kingdom intends to nominate Nigel Farage MEP as European Commissioner.

    Your Sincerely,
    Boris Johnson,
    Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.


    If the nominee is required to be a Tory for some reason maybe replace with Bill Cash or Iain Duncan Smith etc

    EU law requires all Commissioners to uphold the principles of the Treaties, including that of working towards ever closer union. It thus isn't legal for a eurosceptic to be a Commissioner and the European Parliament would vote him down on that basis.
    The optics of that would hurt Boris how?
    It would highlight that there is more democratic accountability for EU Commissioners than members of the UK Cabinet? No doubt Brexit Party MEPs would enthusiastically publicise the vote.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Gabs2 said:

    Would there be anything to make the following letter to the EU be unlawful?

    Dear Jean Claude Juncker and Ursula von der Leyen,

    Under the terms of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act (No 2) 2019 the Parliament of Westminster has instructed the UK goverment to send you a letter requesting an extension, please see attached.

    You are aware of the UK government's opinion regarding an extension but if an extension is granted the United Kingdom government will be required to nominate a new EU Commissioner. If an extension is granted then the United Kingdom intends to nominate Nigel Farage MEP as European Commissioner.

    Your Sincerely,
    Boris Johnson,
    Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.


    If the nominee is required to be a Tory for some reason maybe replace with Bill Cash or Iain Duncan Smith etc

    EU law requires all Commissioners to uphold the principles of the Treaties, including that of working towards ever closer union. It thus isn't legal for a eurosceptic to be a Commissioner and the European Parliament would vote him down on that basis.
    The optics of that would hurt Boris how?
    Because the EU would still accept the extension and that would be devastating for Boris.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Carnyx said:

    nico67 said:

    The government case is falling apart in the Scottish Court .



    Refusing to provide signed affidavits may not (again) go down well.

    But no judgement yet.

    Useful summary thread here (and the one after it)

    Try James Doleman aswell, that has a lot more of the judges questions and replies from the QCs .

    You’ll see why I think the government case is falling apart . The afternoon session with the government QC is brutal !
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 35,453
    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    3. He voted to Remain but has accepted the referendum result. That does allow him to say to the Lib Dems that he respects the result unlike them.

    I think you mean "unlike London voters, who still want to remain".

    I'm not convinced that's a compelling electoral pitch.
    Somewhere between 30-40% of Londoners support leaving

    If the LDs and Labour chew each other up he could sneak through. Narrow path but not impossible
    If Boris does manage to implement Brexit, I have a strong suspicion that many Remainers will be so dispirited that getting them to the polling booth at all will take quite some effort.

    "What's the point? if they couldn't stop Brexit, with everything in their favour...."
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,636

    I agree Rory is a big lay oppertunity. He'll get huge nedia coverage, raise loads of money, shine in all the debates and will quickly be judged to be the best candidate then the best actual Mayor ( which on some metrics he is ). He'll then save his deposit and get an objectively very resppectable result for an Independent coming from a 7 month standing start but relatively underperform the hype. I'd be looking at Betfair lay oppertunities associated with media bubbles and early polling surges.

    He touched 6-4 earlier.
This discussion has been closed.