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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dominic Raab – a contender for the next election’s “Portillo m

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  • rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Noo said:

    This is offensive bollocks. You're trying to malign Corbyn for views he very clearly doesn't hold. Labour have an excellent record on gay rights.
    There's a lot to criticise Labour and Corbyn for, but this is childish garbage.

    I asked @bjo what Hamas' policy on homosexuality was and he responded that it was the same as Tim Farron and Jo Swinson's. I am curious to understand how he has arrived at that conclusion.

    As for maligning Corbyn, he is an anti-semite. He associates with anti-semites. There are many sensible articles explaining why this is (my enemy's enemy is my friend, the change in Israel from plucky little guy to oppressor, the whole mural Jews oppressing the working people schtick, etc, etc), but anti-semitic he most certainly is.

    Give the Labour Party a sensible, non-anti-semitic leader and do you think they would be frightened of a general election right now?
    BJO is absolutely correct.

    Jo Swinson believes that homosexuals should be stoned to death.

    Or should be allowed to get stoned.

    I forget which. But it definitely involved getting stoned.
    I am genuinely surprised labour havent announced legalization of pot, or at very least the US style medical use fudge.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    CatMan said:
    Paging @isam.

    Could be the most surprising thing I've seen all day.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Pulpstar said:

    @rcs1000 I get your point but Elizabeth Warren is 70 too you know :p -


    What's the critical age when one becomes "too old" for the presidency

    70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75 or 76 ? :)

    A very fit 70 though, as far as anyone can tell. She exudes a rather manic energy and has developed a folksy style that is not affected.

    Nailed on as candidate IMO, and looking increasingly for POTUS too. Those US manufacturing figures are going to hurt Trump in the Midwest.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    The proposals aren’t without some merit from the government but a big problem is giving the DUP an effective veto and this completely ignores the rest of the parties in NI .

    There’s no way Ireland will accept this and it seems the DUP like to drone on about democratic accountability only when it suits them .

    The rest of the parties are represented at the assembly, and I think there is enforced cohabitation, so it would rely on both sides agreeing or not agreeing to it.
    In Stormont they have a petition of concern which effectively means Unionists can veto anything they don’t like .

    That’s why that part of the proposal re continued alignment is going nowhere . And if that doesn’t change there’s no chance of a deal .
  • It’s amazing what a few billion quid can do:
    https://twitter.com/dupleader/status/1172279119968657413?s=21
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928
    Noo said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re Bernie Sanders (2):

    There's another older candidate out there.

    It's President Donald J Trump.

    You know the guy: in a stressful job, with a poor diet, no exercise, rather overweight.

    Now, the selling the 1.24 for him to be next Republican nominee doesn't look too attractive. In fact it looks downright rubbish.

    But bizarrely, he's 2.4 for Next President, while the Republicans are 2.12. In other words you can choose between roughly 4-1 for him to not be the nominee... or 8-1. (I.e. you buy Republicans to win the White House, but sell Donald J Trump as next President.)

    But that's not the smart bet.

    The smart bet is taking the 60-1 on Pence being the next President, and selling the Republicans. Which, ummm, gets you effective on odds on Donald Trump not being the Republican nominee... *or* him having a health (or other) problem between nomination and election... of 25-1.

    If I wasn't in the US and therefore prohibited from betting, I'd be filling my boots with everything Betfair was offering here.

    It looks much better odds than laying the 1.24, but are the odds good? That is, maybe both are poor value?
    We don't really have history to help us decide on the real chances of certain outcomes, so what do we use to decide value? Gut feelings? Inside information?
    What are the odds of an overweight 73 year old man in a stressful job having any kind of meaningful health issue in the next 13 months?

    I'd reckon the odds would be more than 5%.

    Now, you can argue that it would have to be quite a serious one to result in him not going through the 2021 inaugaration ceremony. But - again - we're talking 5% chances here. And then there's the (small but real) chance that something comes up that makes impeachment a "lock", and he chooses to resign (and be Pardoned by Pence) rather than wear a jumpsuit. The Pence next President odds are simply wrong. Fill your boots.

    (If you like, you can bet on Trump next Republican nominee, and Pence next President, and sell Republicans to win the election. In the right ratios, the only way you lose is if there's a Republican nominee who's not Trump or Pence, and who goes on to win the Presidency.)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2019
    TOPPING said:

    CatMan said:
    Paging @isam.

    Could be the most surprising thing I've seen all day.
    We voted to Leave and how we leave should be down to the PM of the day, same as it ever was
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,896
    rcs1000 said:


    (If you like, you can bet on Trump next Republican nominee, and Pence next President, and sell Republicans to win the election. In the right ratios, the only way you lose is if there's a Republican nominee who's not Trump or Pence, and who goes on to win the Presidency.)

    You've rumbled me.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Noo said:

    This is offensive bollocks. You're trying to malign Corbyn for views he very clearly doesn't hold. Labour have an excellent record on gay rights.
    There's a lot to criticise Labour and Corbyn for, but this is childish garbage.

    I asked @bjo what Hamas' policy on homosexuality was and he responded that it was the same as Tim Farron and Jo Swinson's. I am curious to understand how he has arrived at that conclusion.

    As for maligning Corbyn, he is an anti-semite. He associates with anti-semites. There are many sensible articles explaining why this is (my enemy's enemy is my friend, the change in Israel from plucky little guy to oppressor, the whole mural Jews oppressing the working people schtick, etc, etc), but anti-semitic he most certainly is.

    Give the Labour Party a sensible, non-anti-semitic leader and do you think they would be frightened of a general election right now?
    BJO is absolutely correct.

    Jo Swinson believes that homosexuals should be stoned to death.

    Or should be allowed to get stoned.

    I forget which. But it definitely involved getting stoned.
    Tim Farron, of course, believed both. Though I'm not sure in which order.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    rcs1000 said:

    Noo said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re Bernie Sanders (2):

    There's another older candidate out there.

    It's President Donald J Trump.

    You know the guy: in a stressful job, with a poor diet, no exercise, rather overweight.

    Now, the selling the 1.24 for him to be next Republican nominee doesn't look too attractive. In fact it looks downright rubbish.

    But bizarrely, he's 2.4 for Next President, while the Republicans are 2.12. In other words you can choose between roughly 4-1 for him to not be the nominee... or 8-1. (I.e. you buy Republicans to win the White House, but sell Donald J Trump as next President.)

    But that's not the smart bet.

    The smart bet is taking the 60-1 on Pence being the next President, and selling the Republicans. Which, ummm, gets you effective on odds on Donald Trump not being the Republican nominee... *or* him having a health (or other) problem between nomination and election... of 25-1.

    If I wasn't in the US and therefore prohibited from betting, I'd be filling my boots with everything Betfair was offering here.

    It looks much better odds than laying the 1.24, but are the odds good? That is, maybe both are poor value?
    We don't really have history to help us decide on the real chances of certain outcomes, so what do we use to decide value? Gut feelings? Inside information?
    What are the odds of an overweight 73 year old man in a stressful job having any kind of meaningful health issue in the next 13 months?

    I'd reckon the odds would be more than 5%.

    Now, you can argue that it would have to be quite a serious one to result in him not going through the 2021 inaugaration ceremony. But - again - we're talking 5% chances here. And then there's the (small but real) chance that something comes up that makes impeachment a "lock", and he chooses to resign (and be Pardoned by Pence) rather than wear a jumpsuit. The Pence next President odds are simply wrong. Fill your boots.

    (If you like, you can bet on Trump next Republican nominee, and Pence next President, and sell Republicans to win the election. In the right ratios, the only way you lose is if there's a Republican nominee who's not Trump or Pence, and who goes on to win the Presidency.)
    One risk with backing Pence is that if Trump knows he will have to resign he may decide he wants a different person as VP to replace him - though of course that individual would have to be approved by majority votes in the House and Senate. Oh. Maybe not so much of a risk then.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Noo said:

    This is offensive bollocks. You're trying to malign Corbyn for views he very clearly doesn't hold. Labour have an excellent record on gay rights.
    There's a lot to criticise Labour and Corbyn for, but this is childish garbage.

    I asked @bjo what Hamas' policy on homosexuality was and he responded that it was the same as Tim Farron and Jo Swinson's. I am curious to understand how he has arrived at that conclusion.

    As for maligning Corbyn, he is an anti-semite. He associates with anti-semites. There are many sensible articles explaining why this is (my enemy's enemy is my friend, the change in Israel from plucky little guy to oppressor, the whole mural Jews oppressing the working people schtick, etc, etc), but anti-semitic he most certainly is.

    Give the Labour Party a sensible, non-anti-semitic leader and do you think they would be frightened of a general election right now?
    BJO is absolutely correct.

    Jo Swinson believes that homosexuals should be stoned to death.

    Or should be allowed to get stoned.

    I forget which. But it definitely involved getting stoned.
    Tim Farron, of course, believed both. Though I'm not sure in which order.
    No he didn't. While Farron sees fornication as a sin whether homosexual or not, he has a good track record on Gay rights. Like a good Liberal he doesn't want to enforce his own morality on others.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    kinabalu said:

    CD13 said:

    I think the EU might eventually go for it, because the money keep rolling in from the UK, But it will never get through Parliament. Jezza will never vote for something that has a Tory stamp on it, and the SNP only exist to cause mischief.

    The LDs want to revoke so goodbye to compromise and the voters' views. Bring on the GE.

    I think it's the other way around. There is no chance of the EU agreeing it - but on the one in a million that they do, it would almost certainly be passed by parliament.
    Parliament will only pass a deal if a referendum is attached IMO.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,361
    Is he sitting on the EU negotaitors side of the table now? In what world was he ever going to say it was better?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Noo said:

    This is offensive bollocks. You're trying to malign Corbyn for views he very clearly doesn't hold. Labour have an excellent record on gay rights.
    There's a lot to criticise Labour and Corbyn for, but this is childish garbage.

    I asked @bjo what Hamas' policy on homosexuality was and he responded that it was the same as Tim Farron and Jo Swinson's. I am curious to understand how he has arrived at that conclusion.

    As for maligning Corbyn, he is an anti-semite. He associates with anti-semites. There are many sensible articles explaining why this is (my enemy's enemy is my friend, the change in Israel from plucky little guy to oppressor, the whole mural Jews oppressing the working people schtick, etc, etc), but anti-semitic he most certainly is.

    Give the Labour Party a sensible, non-anti-semitic leader and do you think they would be frightened of a general election right now?
    BJO is absolutely correct.

    Jo Swinson believes that homosexuals should be stoned to death.

    Or should be allowed to get stoned.

    I forget which. But it definitely involved getting stoned.
    LOL
    Except i didnt say that, please stop lying.

    I said LDs had at least 3 MPs and the Tories dozens of MPs whose voting record is significantly worse in terms of Gay Rights and Gay Marriage than Jezza whose voting record speaks for itself and is exemplary.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Is he sitting on the EU negotaitors side of the table now? In what world was he ever going to say it was better?
    If Johnson had added some of the things he had called for - such as the guarantee on workers' rights - then he would say it was better (but not good enough).
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    I asked @bjo what Hamas' policy on homosexuality was and he responded that it was the same as Tim Farron and Jo Swinson's.

    Nah read my actual response
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    edited October 2019
    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Noo said:

    This is offensive bollocks. You're trying to malign Corbyn for views he very clearly doesn't hold. Labour have an excellent record on gay rights.
    There's a lot to criticise Labour and Corbyn for, but this is childish garbage.

    I asked @bjo what Hamas' policy on homosexuality was and he responded that it was the same as Tim Farron and Jo Swinson's. I am curious to understand how he has arrived at that conclusion.

    As for maligning Corbyn, he is an anti-semite. He associates with anti-semites. There are many sensible articles explaining why this is (my enemy's enemy is my friend, the change in Israel from plucky little guy to oppressor, the whole mural Jews oppressing the working people schtick, etc, etc), but anti-semitic he most certainly is.

    Give the Labour Party a sensible, non-anti-semitic leader and do you think they would be frightened of a general election right now?
    BJO is absolutely correct.

    Jo Swinson believes that homosexuals should be stoned to death.

    Or should be allowed to get stoned.

    I forget which. But it definitely involved getting stoned.
    Tim Farron, of course, believed both. Though I'm not sure in which order.
    I'm absolutely certain both Ms Swinson & Mr Farron have no problem with anyone one getting stoned if they so wish, although I'm equally certain that they believe moderation in all things is always advisable.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,361
    It does of course allow May's Shit Deal to be voted on again.....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Pulpstar said:
    Will Queen's Speech pass? Seems unlikely.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    edited October 2019

    Telegraph reporting No 10 have spoken to Kinnock about support from his group and the response has been encouraging.

    Perhaps these mythical Labour MPs that want a deal are real after all, is Nandy one of them?

    A bunch of Labour MPs voting for Brexit would be a gift for Focus leaflets everywhere.

    (Speaking of which, slightly intrigued to have got two - different - Lib Dem "newspapers" in the Royal Mail junk deliveries over the last week. Both from the national party, not the local one. We're target seat #40, in theory, so evidently the party is feeling confident...)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    TOPPING said:

    Give the Labour Party a sensible, non-anti-semitic leader and do you think they would be frightened of a general election right now?

    Ed Miliband was screamingly non-anti-semitic. He was also Captain Sensible. Yet he was Damned for being 'geeky' and failing to look happy and sanguine when eating a bacon sandwich - and he duly lost the 2015 GE. He now says he wishes he had been more 'Corbynite' on policy, less scared of the Daily Mail and ilk.

    So I'm not sure.

    But as per PT, I doubt the appetite for Labour's more radical aspirations.
  • It let everybody get on the outrage bus.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,361
    More importantly, has Gina Miller?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,896
    The Queen acts on the advice of her ministers...

    This prorogation was implicitly allowed by the Supreme Court too.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,361
    We wouldn't have had it confirmed that Diane Abbot can't count to six?
  • kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Give the Labour Party a sensible, non-anti-semitic leader and do you think they would be frightened of a general election right now?

    Ed Miliband was screamingly non-anti-semitic. He was also Captain Sensible. Yet he was Damned for being 'geeky' and failing to look happy and sanguine when eating a bacon sandwich - and he duly lost the 2015 GE. He now says he wishes he had been more 'Corbynite' on policy, less scared of the Daily Mail and ilk.

    So I'm not sure.

    But as per PT, I doubt the appetite for Labour's more radical aspirations.
    The central plank of ed milibands offer was based on a now widely discredited book.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Mr. CatMan, Farage being unhappy is a bit like Sturgeon thinking there should be another independence referendum.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    rcs1000 said:

    What are the odds of an overweight 73 year old man in a stressful job having any kind of meaningful health issue in the next 13 months?

    I'd reckon the odds would be more than 5%.

    Now, you can argue that it would have to be quite a serious one to result in him not going through the 2021 inaugaration ceremony. But - again - we're talking 5% chances here. And then there's the (small but real) chance that something comes up that makes impeachment a "lock", and he chooses to resign (and be Pardoned by Pence) rather than wear a jumpsuit. The Pence next President odds are simply wrong. Fill your boots.

    (If you like, you can bet on Trump next Republican nominee, and Pence next President, and sell Republicans to win the election. In the right ratios, the only way you lose is if there's a Republican nominee who's not Trump or Pence, and who goes on to win the Presidency.)

    Thank you for the advice.
    Just a small point of order: some of the cases against Trump have been handed off to state prosecutors and there's nothing an incoming POTUS could do to pardon an outgoing one for state crimes. That's part of the reason I don't hold much hope for Trump stepping down voluntarily.
    There's a part of me that I'm not proud of that hopes* he dies. But on balance I'd prefer him to be beaten resoundingly in an election, gets buried under an avalanche of state and federal indictments, gets convicted, and lives out the rest of his natural life in a maximum security prison with the rest of the criminals. With no access to Twitter, hairspray, or fake tan.

    *Yeah yeah, don't give me shit about it. I know it's wrong but that's how I feel.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    We wouldn't have had it confirmed that Diane Abbot can't count to six?
    I have missed that bit, whatever it was.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
  • We wouldn't have had it confirmed that Diane Abbot can't count to six?
    I have missed that bit, whatever it was.
    She tried to ask 7 questions at PMQs.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Give the Labour Party a sensible, non-anti-semitic leader and do you think they would be frightened of a general election right now?

    Ed Miliband was screamingly non-anti-semitic. He was also Captain Sensible. Yet he was Damned for being 'geeky' and failing to look happy and sanguine when eating a bacon sandwich - and he duly lost the 2015 GE. He now says he wishes he had been more 'Corbynite' on policy, less scared of the Daily Mail and ilk.

    So I'm not sure.

    But as per PT, I doubt the appetite for Labour's more radical aspirations.
    I listen regularly to Milliband's 'Reasons to be Cheerful" podcasts. Comes across as a sensible practical man, who is willing to be radical at times.
    Stable govt with Cameron or chaos with Ed Miliband indeed! From those podcasts, nothing could be further from the truth.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Noo said:

    This is offensive bollocks. You're trying to malign Corbyn for views he very clearly doesn't hold. Labour have an excellent record on gay rights.
    There's a lot to criticise Labour and Corbyn for, but this is childish garbage.

    I asked @bjo what Hamas' policy on homosexuality was and he responded that it was the same as Tim Farron and Jo Swinson's. I am curious to understand how he has arrived at that conclusion.

    As for maligning Corbyn, he is an anti-semite. He associates with anti-semites. There are many sensible articles explaining why this is (my enemy's enemy is my friend, the change in Israel from plucky little guy to oppressor, the whole mural Jews oppressing the working people schtick, etc, etc), but anti-semitic he most certainly is.

    Give the Labour Party a sensible, non-anti-semitic leader and do you think they would be frightened of a general election right now?
    BJO is absolutely correct.

    Jo Swinson believes that homosexuals should be stoned to death.

    Or should be allowed to get stoned.

    I forget which. But it definitely involved getting stoned.
    Tim Farron, of course, believed both. Though I'm not sure in which order.
    No he didn't. While Farron sees fornication as a sin whether homosexual or not, he has a good track record on Gay rights. Like a good Liberal he doesn't want to enforce his own morality on others.
    Tim Farron - who I don't agree with and would not vote for - gets a huge amount of unfair stick for holding pretty mainstream views shared in religious (and some non-religious) communities worldwide. Many evangelicals, Catholics, and members of a range of belief systems believe and teach that sex is for marriage only, and that marriage is only between a man and a woman. Most of them, like Farron, are decent people of centrist outlook. Older PBers may recall the day, not so long ago, when almost everyone at least paid lip service to these beliefs and a plurality of people did their best to practice them.

  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Noo said:
    NEVURR! NEVURR! NE-ok for four year at a time.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153

    Pulpstar said:
    Will Queen's Speech pass? Seems unlikely.
    Probably not... But QS are no longer a matter of Confidence. Will probably form the basis for Con's manifesto when the election happens though.
  • It does of course allow May's Shit Deal to be voted on again.....

    And Johnson to miss PMQs again.

  • On karate kid Raab, I thought he was pretty good at PMQs today. If I just knew about him from comments on here, I'd imagine he was as thick as mince. Obviously all of the geniuses here knew exactly what proportion of our lorry freight goes through Dover, and wouldn't be such dumbasses as to admit it if they were surprised by it being such a staggeringly high percentage. They also, I'm sure, have far more impressive academic credentials than winning an international law studies award at Cambridge.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Give the Labour Party a sensible, non-anti-semitic leader and do you think they would be frightened of a general election right now?

    Ed Miliband was screamingly non-anti-semitic. He was also Captain Sensible. Yet he was Damned for being 'geeky' and failing to look happy and sanguine when eating a bacon sandwich - and he duly lost the 2015 GE. He now says he wishes he had been more 'Corbynite' on policy, less scared of the Daily Mail and ilk.

    So I'm not sure.

    But as per PT, I doubt the appetite for Labour's more radical aspirations.
    The central plank of ed milibands offer was based on a now widely discredited book.
    Protocols of the Elders of Zion?

    or

    The Wealth of Nations?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    You are lying Swinson for all her other faults hasnt voted againgst Gay Rights and I never said she had Some of her new colleagues however do not have a good voting record in this area

    My 2 responses to your What is the Hamas policy on homosexuality? Can one be both present and involved?

    were bigjohnowls said:

    "Yet voting records suggest Jezza is in favour of Gay Rights and Marriage

    Same Cant be said for at least 3 LD MPs

    dozens of Tory MPs and 100% of Jesters DUP allies"


    And "Same as Philip Lee and Tim Farron both MPs in the Tory Swinson Party?"

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    The central plank of ed milibands offer was based on a now widely discredited book.

    Don't leave me hanging ...
  • On karate kid Raab, I thought he was pretty good at PMQs today. If I just knew about him from comments on here, I'd imagine he was as thick as mince. Obviously all of the geniuses here knew exactly what proportion of our lorry freight goes through Dover, and wouldn't be such dumbasses as to admit it if they were surprised by it being such a staggeringly high percentage. They also, I'm sure, have far more impressive academic credentials than winning an international law studies award at Cambridge.

    He isn't as thick as mince, he is just an arse, pure and simple. Oh, also comes across as a lightweight.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    edited October 2019
    Remainers getting twitchy that the EU might just go for it? ;)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    I listen regularly to Milliband's 'Reasons to be Cheerful" podcasts. Comes across as a sensible practical man, who is willing to be radical at times.
    Stable govt with Cameron or chaos with Ed Miliband indeed! From those podcasts, nothing could be further from the truth.

    A good guy. Where's that Time Machine when we need it?
  • humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 377
    Good afternoon everybody.

    At this point it looks like parliament has used the extra parliamentary time afforded by the SC's decision to little effect. Quite extraordinary that some Tory rebels campaigned against prorogation, and voted against a recess for the Tory conference but then turned up at said conference.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    edited October 2019

    On karate kid Raab, I thought he was pretty good at PMQs today. If I just knew about him from comments on here, I'd imagine he was as thick as mince. Obviously all of the geniuses here knew exactly what proportion of our lorry freight goes through Dover, and wouldn't be such dumbasses as to admit it if they were surprised by it being such a staggeringly high percentage. They also, I'm sure, have far more impressive academic credentials than winning an international law studies award at Cambridge.

    I think Raab deserves to get shit about that Dover fiasco. It was a little window into the mindset of Brexists who insisted confidently that Brexit would be easy and only later bothered to look into the detail of whether that would be so.
    Ideology before knowledge. Belief before understanding. It's an intellectually ugly look, and the fact that he obviously has other qualities doesn't save him from that episode. In fact, is would seem to make it slightly worse.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Give the Labour Party a sensible, non-anti-semitic leader and do you think they would be frightened of a general election right now?

    Ed Miliband was screamingly non-anti-semitic. He was also Captain Sensible. Yet he was Damned for being 'geeky' and failing to look happy and sanguine when eating a bacon sandwich - and he duly lost the 2015 GE. He now says he wishes he had been more 'Corbynite' on policy, less scared of the Daily Mail and ilk.

    So I'm not sure.

    But as per PT, I doubt the appetite for Labour's more radical aspirations.
    The central plank of ed milibands offer was based on a now widely discredited book.
    What the evil of investment borrowing? The thing Boris government have adopted, given oomph, and turned up to a level of “nah way over top don’t believe you”
  • It does of course allow May's Shit Deal to be voted on again.....
    Please explain. Why was it a shit deal from a leaver perspective? Or was it just a shit deal because the ERG say so?
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Tory Geoffrey Clifton-Brown kicked out of conference after police called to row
    Gove off his face HOC last week
    Johnsons sexual assault
    Johnson spending tax payers money ex mistress
    So glad Tories going to clamp down on crime !!


    There needs to be an urgent statement on the stag ruck on Leadsom
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    GIN1138 said:
    Again.
  • GIN1138 said:
    Ohhhhhhhbh jeremmmmy corbyn.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Will Queen's Speech pass? Seems unlikely.
    Probably not... But QS are no longer a matter of Confidence. Will probably form the basis for Con's manifesto when the election happens though.
    Normally budgets are the spring board to election. A queens speech would be exposed in commons before printed as manifesto.

    But come to think of it, if true maybe not so bad thing, eg if May’s had been.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,361
    GIN1138 said:
    But no doubt they will soar to 54% during the election campaign......

    *titter*
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:


    Which is exactly why parliament’s behaviour has been so corrosive to the chance of getting a deal

    Cast your mind back to when the text of the deal was first announced. Within minutes it was being denounced on all the TV channels by the current Prime Minister.
    I’m talking about way before then

    Grieve’s meaningful vote bullshit
    The meaningful vote is a bit of a red herring given that the deal would have required legislation in any case, so it would have still needed parliamentary buy in.
    Disagree

    Once a Treaty was signed it would be very disruptive for parliament to refuse to legislate to implement it
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    Scott_P said:
    There we go...

    Sounds like there's going to be a lot of talking going on up to 17th/18th October. ;)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Average of polls, last 7 days:

    Con 32.6%
    Lab 22.6%
    LD 21.6%
    BRX 13.2%
    Grn 4.2%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Give the Labour Party a sensible, non-anti-semitic leader and do you think they would be frightened of a general election right now?

    Ed Miliband was screamingly non-anti-semitic. He was also Captain Sensible. Yet he was Damned for being 'geeky' and failing to look happy and sanguine when eating a bacon sandwich - and he duly lost the 2015 GE. He now says he wishes he had been more 'Corbynite' on policy, less scared of the Daily Mail and ilk.

    So I'm not sure.

    But as per PT, I doubt the appetite for Labour's more radical aspirations.
    The central plank of ed milibands offer was based on a now widely discredited book.
    Protocols of the Elders of Zion?

    or

    The Wealth of Nations?
    "Millions Of Women Are Waiting To Meet You" ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,896
    Buttigieg (Nomination), Harris (Presidency), O' Rourke 200-1 odd !! (Presidency), Klobuchar are all very backable prices right now.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Noo said:

    "We are proposing that the Noerthn Ireland Executive and Assembly should have the opportunity to endorse those arrangements before they enter into force"

    There is no way Brexit will happen at the end of October under these terms.

    Before the end of the transition
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:


    May’s deal isn’t perfect but it’s workable

    Prior to the politicians getting involved it was a decent negotiation.

    That's like me saying "I created a great deal - until the Board got involved." A deal that is not going to fly past those that have to approve it is is not a "decent negotiation", it's a waste of everybody's bloody time....
    The point is that Parliament shouldn’t have had a say
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I think that more or less ends the idea of a November election, barring some very specific moves in a very precise timeframe between 21 and 24 October.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Noo said:

    This is offensive bollocks. You're trying to malign Corbyn for views he very clearly doesn't hold. Labour have an excellent record on gay rights.
    There's a lot to criticise Labour and Corbyn for, but this is childish garbage.

    I asked @bjo what Hamas' policy on homosexuality was and he responded that it was the same as Tim Farron and Jo Swinson's. I am curious to understand how he has arrived at that conclusion.

    As for maligning Corbyn, he is an anti-semite. He associates with anti-semites. There are many sensible articles explaining why this is (my enemy's enemy is my friend, the change in Israel from plucky little guy to oppressor, the whole mural Jews oppressing the working people schtick, etc, etc), but anti-semitic he most certainly is.

    Give the Labour Party a sensible, non-anti-semitic leader and do you think they would be frightened of a general election right now?
    BJO is absolutely correct.

    Jo Swinson believes that homosexuals should be stoned to death.

    Or should be allowed to get stoned.

    I forget which. But it definitely involved getting stoned.
    I am genuinely surprised labour havent announced legalization of pot, or at very least the US style medical use fudge.
    "Pot", as a word for canabis, was out of date 30 years ago.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Blame pass the parcel: "You were holding it when the music stopped! - No You were!"

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1179425767714934784?s=20
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    AndyJS said:

    Average of polls, last 7 days:

    Con 32.6%
    Lab 22.6%
    LD 21.6%
    BRX 13.2%
    Grn 4.2%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Half of the polls over the last seven days are from YouGov.

    Is the average calculated with YouGov weighted to 50%, or to 25% (so equally to the other firms)?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153

    I think that more or less ends the idea of a November election, barring some very specific moves in a very precise timeframe between 21 and 24 October.

    If Boris presents a deal to Parliament which passes on Monday 21st maybe they'll agree an election the next day (Tuesday 22nd) ?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    edited October 2019

    Blame pass the parcel: "You were holding it when the music stopped! - No You were!"

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1179425767714934784?s=20

    I think Juncker's statement is clearly pointing towards further discussions, a bit more movement here and there followed by a deal being done 17th/18th October?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Scott_P said:
    You'd think they'd learn to call it the "Good Friday/Belfast Agreement" (after all the latter is its official name) to avoid pissing off the Unionists.....
  • eristdoof said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Noo said:

    This is offensive bollocks. You're trying to malign Corbyn for views he very clearly doesn't hold. Labour have an excellent record on gay rights.
    There's a lot to criticise Labour and Corbyn for, but this is childish garbage.

    I asked @bjo what Hamas' policy on homosexuality was and he responded that it was the same as Tim Farron and Jo Swinson's. I am curious to understand how he has arrived at that conclusion.

    As for maligning Corbyn, he is an anti-semite. He associates with anti-semites. There are many sensible articles explaining why this is (my enemy's enemy is my friend, the change in Israel from plucky little guy to oppressor, the whole mural Jews oppressing the working people schtick, etc, etc), but anti-semitic he most certainly is.

    Give the Labour Party a sensible, non-anti-semitic leader and do you think they would be frightened of a general election right now?
    BJO is absolutely correct.

    Jo Swinson believes that homosexuals should be stoned to death.

    Or should be allowed to get stoned.

    I forget which. But it definitely involved getting stoned.
    I am genuinely surprised labour havent announced legalization of pot, or at very least the US style medical use fudge.
    "Pot", as a word for canabis, was out of date 30 years ago.
    I'm sure he meant to say doobies.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,896
    GIN1138 said:

    Blame pass the parcel: "You were holding it when the music stopped! - No You were!"

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1179425767714934784?s=20

    I think Juncker's statement is clearly pointing towards further discussions, a bit more movementr here and there followed by a deal being done 17th/18th october?
    " 'Ow many billion for zis to pass, Mr Varadkar ?"
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    GIN1138 said:

    I think that more or less ends the idea of a November election, barring some very specific moves in a very precise timeframe between 21 and 24 October.

    If Boris presents a deal to Parliament which passes on Monday 21st maybe they'll agree an election the next day (Tuesday 22nd) ?
    I won't be betting the house on that.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    GIN1138 said:

    Blame pass the parcel: "You were holding it when the music stopped! - No You were!"

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1179425767714934784?s=20

    I think Juncker's statement is clearly pointing towards further discussions, a bit more movementr here and there followed by a deal being done 17th/18th october?
    Your glass is half full....while a natural optimist I don't doubt eitherside's capacity to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Noo said:

    This is offensive bollocks. You're trying to malign Corbyn for views he very clearly doesn't hold. Labour have an excellent record on gay rights.
    There's a lot to criticise Labour and Corbyn for, but this is childish garbage.

    I asked @bjo what Hamas' policy on homosexuality was and he responded that it was the same as Tim Farron and Jo Swinson's. I am curious to understand how he has arrived at that conclusion.

    As for maligning Corbyn, he is an anti-semite. He associates with anti-semites. There are many sensible articles explaining why this is (my enemy's enemy is my friend, the change in Israel from plucky little guy to oppressor, the whole mural Jews oppressing the working people schtick, etc, etc), but anti-semitic he most certainly is.

    Give the Labour Party a sensible, non-anti-semitic leader and do you think they would be frightened of a general election right now?
    BJO is absolutely correct.

    Jo Swinson believes that homosexuals should be stoned to death.

    Or should be allowed to get stoned.

    I forget which. But it definitely involved getting stoned.
    LOL
    Except i didnt say that, please stop lying.

    I said LDs had at least 3 MPs and the Tories dozens of MPs whose voting record is significantly worse in terms of Gay Rights and Gay Marriage than Jezza whose voting record speaks for itself and is exemplary.
    Don't tell me I'm a liar you c##t.

    I asked you what Hamas' policy on homosexually was (punishable by death) and you said it was the same as Jo Swinson and Tim Farron's.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    Scott_P said:
    I think this is more about presenting a united front for the upcoming general election.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    A very good point:

    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1179430891959001088

    In other words, not serious enough yet to justify the type of detailed talks that would lead to a deal.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    If the DUP have a veto then there’s no chance of a deal . Problem is remove the veto and their sense of superiority over the other NI parties and they won’t back it, and then the ERG will use that to pull their support .
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780


    A bunch of Labour MPs voting for Brexit would be a gift for Focus leaflets everywhere.

    (Speaking of which, slightly intrigued to have got two - different - Lib Dem "newspapers" in the Royal Mail junk deliveries over the last week. Both from the national party, not the local one. We're target seat #40, in theory, so evidently the party is feeling confident...)

    I take it that you're defining LD target number 40 as the seat which across the whole country has the 40th lowest difference in votes cast between the LD vote and the winning party as a % of total votes cast.

    Belfast South then, won by the DUP with 30.4% of the total vote and 30.4% ahead of the LDs' starting point of zero.

    What do the bar charts look like?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753

    I asked @bjo what Hamas' policy on homosexuality was and he responded that it was the same as Tim Farron and Jo Swinson's.

    Nah read my actual response

    You read it. Everyone can. Your response to my post at 3.38pm.

  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060
    "My Lords and Members of the House of Commons, my government will, provided my government supported by my most loyal opposition does not call for a general election and provided my most loyal opposition does not win a vote of no confidence in my government, introduce the xyz bill"
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Average of polls, last 7 days:

    Con 32.6%
    Lab 22.6%
    LD 21.6%
    BRX 13.2%
    Grn 4.2%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Half of the polls over the last seven days are from YouGov.

    Is the average calculated with YouGov weighted to 50%, or to 25% (so equally to the other firms)?
    I haven't taken into account which firms did the polls.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    Give the Labour Party a sensible, non-anti-semitic leader and do you think they would be frightened of a general election right now?

    Ed Miliband was screamingly non-anti-semitic. He was also Captain Sensible. Yet he was Damned for being 'geeky' and failing to look happy and sanguine when eating a bacon sandwich - and he duly lost the 2015 GE. He now says he wishes he had been more 'Corbynite' on policy, less scared of the Daily Mail and ilk.

    So I'm not sure.

    But as per PT, I doubt the appetite for Labour's more radical aspirations.
    Look at who they are facing. How many PB Tories resigned when EdM was loto?
This discussion has been closed.