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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dominic Raab – a contender for the next election’s “Portillo m

SystemSystem Posts: 12,171
edited October 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dominic Raab – a contender for the next election’s “Portillo moment”?

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    Paging @JohnO
  • PloppikinsPloppikins Posts: 126
    No. /endthread
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    Would be amusing but I’d expect a Con hold in most scenarios.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    This is a confident and rollicking performance from Boris. Certainly not a prime minster cowering, angry and under attack.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    I do hope so. The man is a complete f**kwit.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    Anyhoo the Portillo moment will be Boris Johnson losing his seat.

    The moment when BJ finds not only he sucks but he blows as well.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1179354894207258624
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Byronic said:

    This is a confident and rollicking performance from Boris. Certainly not a prime minster cowering, angry and under attack.

    But you are biased
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    I expect Raab will drop to the mid 40s, and the Lib Dems head north but ultimately it will be a hold.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1179354778700308481
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    MikeSmithson said:

    Byronic said:

    This is a confident and rollicking performance from Boris. Certainly not a prime minster cowering, angry and under attack.

    But you are biased
    isn't everyone?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Boris Johnson is giving the magic money tree one hell of a mighty shake.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    MikeSmithson said:

    Byronic said:

    This is a confident and rollicking performance from Boris. Certainly not a prime minster cowering, angry and under attack.

    But you are biased
    Lol
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    FPT
    Brom said:

    williamglenn said:

    Brom said:

    Byronic said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Fwor

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1179329601006428161?s=21

    Hahahahaha

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHHHAHAH
    Even allowing for tactical voting that'll be a Tory majority. Libs will take seats of the Tories but flip plenty of Lab seats blue. It's in the Tory interest Libs and Lab are as close as possible in polling, they certainly don't want one pulling ahead of the other. So far Agent Swinson doing well enough!
    It depends how the votes are distributed. I think it’s conceivable that both Labour and the Lib Dems could have a very efficient vote with the Lib Dems gaining a lot of Tory seats and Labour over-performing in defending theirs.
    It's possible, the huge setback for the Libs is they are 3rd in so many seats. In 2017 they were 2nd in just 38 seats with about half of these in fairly Brexity parts of England (Southwest). It's going to be incredibly hard for them to go from 3rd to 1st place anywhere as they won't be the obvious stop Boris/stop Corbyn/stop Brexit alternative to the incumbent, even if the dodgy bar charts say otherwise!
    Indeed.

    Assuming that the Tories eventually manage to squeeze a couple of % back off the Brexit Party to get up to 36%, the differential in the latest YouGov between Con and Lib would be 13%, the same as in 2010.

    In 2010 the Libs were defending 62 seats with the huge benefit (for the Libs) of incumbency and ended up with 57.

    However, in 2017 they won only 12 seats and were 2nd in only another 38. They are in contention in just a handful of 3rd placed seats. In 2019 incumbency bonus is gone (and working against them), and tactical voting will occur but not as intensively as it might coming even from often quite distant places second and in seats which as often as not voted Leave.

    Torbay is a good example, with a 28% gap between Con and Lib, and with a combined Lib + Lab vote still 5,000 or so short of the Con 2017 vote. It is ranked 19th in terms of the % gap from 1st to the Libs in 2nd place, but more likely than not to be out of reach, albeit narrowly.

    So rather than 57 seats I think that the inference from current polling is that the Libs could realistically be looking to end up with something in the range 30 to 40 seats.

  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,814
    That was the most bonkers speech I have ever heard. Can't tell if it was brilliant or awful.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Byronic said:

    This is a confident and rollicking performance from Boris. Certainly not a prime minster cowering, angry and under attack.

    Bumbling and mumbling to a room full of adorers who would roar with laughter at whatever he said and however he said it.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MikeSmithson said:

    Byronic said:

    This is a confident and rollicking performance from Boris. Certainly not a prime minster cowering, angry and under attack.

    But you are biased
    MikeSmithson said:

    Byronic said:

    This is a confident and rollicking performance from Boris. Certainly not a prime minster cowering, angry and under attack.

    But you are biased
    Who isn't?

    And Boris is seeking the votes of people like him.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyhoo the Portillo moment will be Boris Johnson losing his seat.

    The moment when BJ finds not only he sucks but he blows as well.

    What happens if Johnson loses his seat but the Tories cobble together enough DUP + UUP + Brexit + Tories to have the confidence of the Commons ?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Doris Day had the answer to this one.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUVT1NZtZPo

    However, I would want good odds before I bet on it.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    Johnson: Let's bring this country back together.
    Also: do what I say or people will die.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1179355532869677057
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    I didn't follow it live but I've read the excerpts. It seems like a particularly vacuous speech from Boris.

    Did the Guardian quote this bit correctly?

    When the chlorinated chickens waddle from the hencoop where they are hiding that is the vision of the country that we will put to the people and the choice is clear
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Boris is seeking the votes of people like him.

    Overweight, mendacious OEs? Can't see that being a big demographic.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Dominic Raab could lose his seat but it would not be a Portillo moment because Raab does not have the public profile. That would take a Jacob Rees-Mogg or Michael Gove.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/Charley_Jarrett/status/1179355748654080005
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    YouGov .

    Wrong to leave the EU 49%

    Right to leave the EU 40%
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    I think there's a much greater chance of Boris being voted out of his seat than Raab!

    If Boris falls but the Tories win a majority Raab could well be our next Prime Minister actually...
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    edited October 2019
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I didn't follow it live but I've read the excerpts. It seems like a particularly vacuous speech from Boris.

    Did the Guardian quote this bit correctly?

    When the chlorinated chickens waddle from the hencoop where they are hiding that is the vision of the country that we will put to the people and the choice is clear

    If not exactly that, something very close to it. It was one of a number of "eh?" moments. Boris is a bit vCJD sometimes.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1179355532869677057

    Although a large % of people "want it done"

    Once it is done there is a period of calm, adjustment and realignment as different factions work out new strategies and groupings as required.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/maitlis/status/1179357415583686656
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    edited October 2019
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I didn't follow it live but I've read the excerpts. It seems like a particularly vacuous speech from Boris.

    Did the Guardian quote this bit correctly?

    When the chlorinated chickens waddle from the hencoop where they are hiding that is the vision of the country that we will put to the people and the choice is clear

    Yes

    I do not envy whoever has to edit that for the one o'clock news. Technical Oscar incoming.
  • JSpringJSpring Posts: 100
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    FPT

    Brom said:

    williamglenn said:

    Brom said:

    Byronic said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Fwor

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1179329601006428161?s=21

    Hahahahaha

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHHHAHAH
    Even allowing for tactical voting that'll be a Tory majority. Libs will take seats of the Tories but flip plenty of Lab seats blue. It's in the Tory interest Libs and Lab are as close as possible in polling, they certainly don't want one pulling ahead of the other. So far Agent Swinson doing well enough!
    It depends how the votes are distributed. I think it’s conceivable that both Labour and the Lib Dems could have a very efficient vote with the Lib Dems gaining a lot of Tory seats and Labour over-performing in defending theirs.
    It's possible, the huge setback for the Libs is they are 3rd in so many seats. In 2017 they were 2nd in just 38 seats with about half of these in fairly Brexity parts of England (Southwest). It's going to be incredibly hard for them to go from 3rd to 1st place anywhere as they won't be the obvious stop Boris/stop Corbyn/stop Brexit alternative to the incumbent, even if the dodgy bar charts say otherwise!
    Indeed.

    Assuming that the Tories eventually manage to squeeze a couple of % back off the Brexit Party to get up to 36%, the differential in the latest YouGov between Con and Lib would be 13%, the same as in 2010.

    In 2010 the Libs were defending 62 seats with the huge benefit (for the Libs) of incumbency and ended up with 57.

    However, in 2017 they won only 12 seats and were 2nd in only another 38. They are in contention in just a handful of 3rd placed seats. In 2019 incumbency bonus is gone (and working against them), and tactical voting will occur but not as intensively as it might coming even from often quite distant places second and in seats which as often as not voted Leave.

    Torbay is a good example, with a 28% gap between Con and Lib, and with a combined Lib + Lab vote still 5,000 or so short of the Con 2017 vote. It is ranked 19th in terms of the % gap from 1st to the Libs in 2nd place, but more likely than not to be out of reach, albeit narrowly.

    So rather than 57 seats I think that the inference from current polling is that the Libs could realistically be looking to end up with something in the range 30 to 40 seats.

    Torbay is less likely to go Lib Dem than a lot in seats in which the Lib Dems are further behind, due to its Brexityness. The Brexit Party even polled over 50% there in the European elections this year.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    edited October 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyhoo the Portillo moment will be Boris Johnson losing his seat.

    The moment when BJ finds not only he sucks but he blows as well.

    What happens if Johnson loses his seat but the Tories cobble together enough DUP + UUP + Brexit + Tories to have the confidence of the Commons ?
    The new Tory MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme will stand down and let Boris Johnson win the by election.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,242
    QWTAIN
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    philiph said:

    Once it is done there is a period of calm, adjustment and realignment

    If we crash out with No Deal, there is no period of calm

    There is panic, confusion, disorder and despair. And that's just the cabinet...
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    FPT

    Someone said David Allen Green wouldn't accept any deal and people like him are the problem:

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1167332510461833216
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1179357910889046016
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Our Prime Minister ...
    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1179353250824364032
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Rule number one, if the media and establishment hate it, the voters feel the opposite
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1179358283825664000

    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1179358316960591872
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    So Ladbrokes have Swinson in more danger than Raab.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    edited October 2019
    Have any of you esteemed ladies and gentlemen had any dealings with Acritas (https://www.acritas.com/) and if so could possibly share your experience(s)?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1179355696237821952
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1179358588399161344
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1179355696237821952

    Some of us have been pointing that out for months.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1179357910889046016

    Well of course, because between the leak and the speech the Irish said 'eff that'.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    dyedwoolie said:

    Rule number one, if the media and establishment hate it, the voters feel the opposite

    The media? Every time I go past a news stand, I see screaming pro-Brexit headlines.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    glw said:

    Well of course, because between the leak and the speech the Irish said 'eff that'.

    And the Hulk surrendered...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1179358283825664000

    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1179358316960591872

    Greive could be coming down with Brexit Psychosis?
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    The Tory performance in E&W (two seats lost and neither to LDs) at the May elections was nothing out of the ordinary.

    The LibDems are certainly treating the seat as a priority and will doubtless flood the place in the election but the Conservatives will also focus all attention locally.

    Upshot (my guess) is that Raab’s majority will be substantially reduced from the current 23,000, perhaps even to around 8-10,000 but I’d be astounded if this was a LibDem gain.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    edited October 2019
    Boris does need to cut out the flowery oratory and make his speeches clearer and punchier.

    As far as any deal he may bring back to parliament is concerned, it does seem that remainer MPs are going to have a difficult time justifying refusing to back it if the suggested support from all wings of the Tory party is correct.

    Tories + Lab leavers is going to be very close to getting over the line.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Chris said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Rule number one, if the media and establishment hate it, the voters feel the opposite

    The media? Every time I go past a news stand, I see screaming pro-Brexit headlines.

    Broadcast not broadsheet
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Since the speech had no new policy and no details of any offer to the EU, it seems like it was nothing much more than a crowd-pleaser. It seems to have done that efficiently.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1179358283825664000

    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1179358316960591872

    Greive could be coming down with Brexit Psychosis?
    Hes becoming a bit of an hysterical old queen
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    JSpring said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    FPT

    Brom said:



    It's possible, the huge setback for the Libs is they are 3rd in so many seats. In 2017 they were 2nd in just 38 seats with about half of these in fairly Brexity parts of England (Southwest). It's going to be incredibly hard for them to go from 3rd to 1st place anywhere as they won't be the obvious stop Boris/stop Corbyn/stop Brexit alternative to the incumbent, even if the dodgy bar charts say otherwise!

    Indeed.

    Assuming that the Tories eventually manage to squeeze a couple of % back off the Brexit Party to get up to 36%, the differential in the latest YouGov between Con and Lib would be 13%, the same as in 2010.

    In 2010 the Libs were defending 62 seats with the huge benefit (for the Libs) of incumbency and ended up with 57.

    However, in 2017 they won only 12 seats and were 2nd in only another 38. They are in contention in just a handful of 3rd placed seats. In 2019 incumbency bonus is gone (and working against them), and tactical voting will occur but not as intensively as it might coming even from often quite distant places second and in seats which as often as not voted Leave.

    Torbay is a good example, with a 28% gap between Con and Lib, and with a combined Lib + Lab vote still 5,000 or so short of the Con 2017 vote. It is ranked 19th in terms of the % gap from 1st to the Libs in 2nd place, but more likely than not to be out of reach, albeit narrowly.

    So rather than 57 seats I think that the inference from current polling is that the Libs could realistically be looking to end up with something in the range 30 to 40 seats.

    Torbay is less likely to go Lib Dem than a lot in seats in which the Lib Dems are further behind, due to its Brexityness. The Brexit Party even polled over 50% there in the European elections this year.
    Well indeed. It's precisely why if the Libs are to win a similar number of seats to 2010 they will have to look to long shots like the one featured in this thread, where they will have to win from a very long way back indeed. It'll also mean spreading the targeting jam thinly as it will be less clear which ones are in play and I can't imagine them not trying in their 2nd place seats.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Meanwhile...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1179179573541511176
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited October 2019
    Tories plus Brexit Party were ahead of the LDs in Elmbridge in the European Parliament elections even with Labour squeezed down to just 3%, so Raab should hold on
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Interesting straw in the wind, perhaps

    https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/1179359165833269253

    Is he going to throw the Spartans under the bus in the election campaign?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    On topic (for once) my model, which is not particularly favourable to the Tories, has this as a hold, although the Lib Dems will run him too close for comfort. So a QTWTAIN for me.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    I do hope so. The man is a complete f**kwit.

    Not just a f*ckwit but a liar as well.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Since the speech had no new policy and no details of any offer to the EU, it seems like it was nothing much more than a crowd-pleaser. It seems to have done that efficiently.

    Echo chamber speech, ok delivery. Will soon be forgotten.
    Still, better than a lot of Theresa May's bizarre calamities.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited October 2019
    Boris' speech seems to have gone down well, one audience member on the BBC said he was 'the best PM since Maggie'
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    philiph said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1179355532869677057

    Although a large % of people "want it done"

    Once it is done there is a period of calm, adjustment and realignment as different factions work out new strategies and groupings as required.
    It will never "be done", or certainly within the life time of even the youngest contributor to PB (HYUFD perhaps?). Brexit is a cancer on this country. Those that encouraged it will eventually be called to account for the damage they have caused to our economy and our institutions. Let us hope Bozo, the number 1 cause of the cancer loses his seat. That would be a little bit of justice.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1179360106519154688
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1179355696237821952

    Some of us have been pointing that out for months.
    You were right. Boris could easily have given himself some wiggle room with talk of a deal by the sping, but instead he got out the paint and started covering the floor.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    dyedwoolie said:

    Chris said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Rule number one, if the media and establishment hate it, the voters feel the opposite

    The media? Every time I go past a news stand, I see screaming pro-Brexit headlines.

    Broadcast not broadsheet
    Well I had R5 on for it and the analysis straight after seemed pretty level.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1179352947165151234
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    I missed this earlier:

    In an interview with Emma Barnett on Radio 5 Live Liz Truss, the international trade secretary, said that if the UK did not agree a Brexit deal with the EU, it would leave on 31 October anyway.

    Asked how that would be possible given that the Benn Act requires the PM to request an extension in these circumstance, Truss admitted that she did now know. She said: "I don’t know the precise details of exactly what we will do, and even if I did I wouldn’t tell you."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/oct/02/brexit-latest-news-conservative-conference-boris-johnsons-plan-for-alternative-to-backstop-gets-early-frosty-reception-from-eu-live-news?page=with:block-5d947b8e8f081108db9c0b9b#liveblog-navigation

    11:27
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    At PMQs, Diane Abbot and Dominic Raab addressed abuse of MPs, following last week's dismissal by Boris. Simultaneously, Boris asked conference if they'd been abused on the way in. No, came the answer.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,847
    rottenborough said:

    Meanwhile...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1179179573541511176

    He is not going to leave voluntarily even if he loses the election.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    HYUFD said:

    Boris' speech seems to have gone down well, one audience member on the BBC said he was 'the best PM since Maggie'

    Says mrs johnson snr of ondon...
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Peter Sissons has passed away, newsreader of my youth
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    Boris having a phone call with Junker this afternoon to discuss his Brexit proposals.

    Tory conference ends without Labour proposing a VONC in the Commons as feared
  • PrinceofTarantoPrinceofTaranto Posts: 335
    I have lives in E&W for over 30 years .
    The Tories have never lost the seat in over 100 years and Raab is popular here.It is in parts like Oxshott, Cobham and Esher uber affluent and "High Tory" .Large numbers send their kids to private schools.
    Whilst there are many remainer types, eg bankers and lawyers who work in The City they are not going to risk a Lib /Lab government.Be surprised if Raab has less than 10,000 majority personally.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Cyclefree said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    I do hope so. The man is a complete f**kwit.

    Not just a f*ckwit but a liar as well.
    Two necessary attributes to be an extreme Brexiteer
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    edited October 2019
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Since the speech had no new policy and no details of any offer to the EU, it seems like it was nothing much more than a crowd-pleaser. It seems to have done that efficiently.

    Well it's certainly the first time I can recall that I've laughed out loud at any leader's speech. The "I'm a celebrity" bit about Bercow being forced to eat a "kangaroo's testicle" was a classic.

    Not that I would vote for him in a million years.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    JSpring said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    FPT

    Brom said:

    williamglenn said:

    Brom said:

    Byronic said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Fwor

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1179329601006428161?s=21

    Hahahahaha

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHHHAHAH
    Even allowing for tactical voting that'll be a Tory majority. Libs will take seats of the Tories but flip plenty of Lab seats blue. It's in the Tory interest Libs and Lab are as close as possible in polling, they certainly don't want one pulling ahead of the other. So far Agent Swinson doing well enough!
    It depends how the votes are distributed. I think it’s conceivable that both Labour and the Lib Dems could have a very efficient vote with the Lib Dems gaining a lot of Tory seats and Labour over-performing in defending theirs.
    It's possible, the huge setback for the Libs is they are 3rd in so many seats. In 2017 they were 2nd in just 38 seats with about half of these in fairly Brexity parts of England (Southwest). It's going to be incredibly hard for them to go from 3rd to 1st place anywhere as they won't be the obvious stop Boris/stop Corbyn/stop Brexit alternative to the incumbent, even if the dodgy bar charts say otherwise!
    Indeed.

    Assuming that the Tories eventually manage to squeeze a couple of % back off the Brexit Party to get up to 36%, the differential in the latest YouGov between Con and Lib would be 13%, the same as in 2010.

    In 2010 the Libs were defending 62 seats with the huge benefit (for the Libs) of incumbency and ended up with 57.

    However, in 2017 they won only 12 seats and were 2nd in only another 38. They are in contention in just a handful of 3rd placed seats. In 2019 incumbency bonus is gone (and working against them), and tactical voting will occur but not as intensively as it might coming even from often quite distant places second and in seats which as often as not voted Leave.

    Torbay is a good example, with a 28% gap between Con and Lib, and with a combined Lib + Lab vote still 5,000 or so short of the Con 2017 vote. It is ranked 19th in terms of the % gap from 1st to the Libs in 2nd place, but more likely than not to be out of reach, albeit narrowly.

    So rather than 57 seats I think that the inference from current polling is that the Libs could realistically be looking to end up with something in the range 30 to 40 seats.

    Torbay is less likely to go Lib Dem than a lot in seats in which the Lib Dems are further behind, due to its Brexityness. The Brexit Party even polled over 50% there in the European elections this year.
    I think the Lib Dems will win this by a few %-points, along with North Devon and 4 seats in Cornwall.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    I think the BBC voxpopped Tissue Price coming out of the conference hall. He was impressed with Boris and wants to get Brexit done.

    My view: it was an enjoyable speech. Genuinely the first time I have ever laughed at a politician's gag.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    JohnO said:

    The Tory performance in E&W (two seats lost and neither to LDs) at the May elections was nothing out of the ordinary.

    The LibDems are certainly treating the seat as a priority and will doubtless flood the place in the election but the Conservatives will also focus all attention locally.

    Upshot (my guess) is that Raab’s majority will be substantially reduced from the current 23,000, perhaps even to around 8-10,000 but I’d be astounded if this was a LibDem gain.

    And Lord JohnO has spoken! :D
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    SunnyJim said:

    Boris does need to cut out the flowery oratory and make his speeches clearer and punchier.

    As far as any deal he may bring back to parliament is concerned, it does seem that remainer MPs are going to have a difficult time justifying refusing to back it if the suggested support from all wings of the Tory party is correct.

    Tories + Lab leavers is going to be very close to getting over the line.

    There is no deal that Johnson can bring back that would pass because there is no deal that can be done without EU agreement and any deal the EU agrees to will, by definition, be one that the ERG cannot agree to. Everyone knows this. We are now going through the rather tedious rigmarole of developing the blame game scenario that has always been such an obvious part of the Cummings strategy.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    HYUFD said:

    Boris having a phone call with Junker this afternoon to discuss his Brexit proposals.

    Tory conference ends without Labour proposing a VONC in the Commons as feared

    Junker post lunch....wont get much sense out of him.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,814
    Having seen that speech I think that Boris would make one of the best after dinner speeches one is likely to hear, but I suspect he maybe torn apart in a leaders debate. Having said that I can't visualise Corbyn in a leaders debate either.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    GIN1138 said:

    I think there's a much greater chance of Boris being voted out of his seat than Raab!

    If Boris falls but the Tories win a majority Raab could well be our next Prime Minister actually...

    Boris is safe, the Brexit Party won Hillingdon in the European Parliament elections beating Labour and the LDs and the Tories retained the council in 2018
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Meanwhile...

    https://twitter.com/BBCJonSopel/status/1179361240122040320
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited October 2019
    kjh said:

    Having seen that speech I think that Boris would make one of the best after dinner speeches one is likely to hear, but I suspect he maybe torn apart in a leaders debate. Having said that I can't visualise Corbyn in a leaders debate either.

    Boris was crap in previous debate outings.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    HYUFD said:

    Boris' speech seems to have gone down well, one audience member on the BBC said he was 'the best PM since Maggie'

    It's gauche to quote yourself.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1179358283825664000

    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1179358316960591872


    Grieve is starting to remind me of Colonel Nicholson is the final scenes of Bridge Over The River Kwai.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    dyedwoolie said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1179358283825664000

    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1179358316960591872

    Greive could be coming down with Brexit Psychosis?
    Hes becoming a bit of an hysterical old queen
    Hmm, he is actually a very intelligent principled man who hasn't fallen for the biggest con trick in British history. I think he generally leaves hysteria to those who share your views, since it is a condition that many right wing xenophobic fanatics have had since the beginning of time, indeed 'tis a necessary condition for such a warped frame of mind.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912
    rottenborough said:

    Meanwhile...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1179179573541511176

    He's only one small step away from saying "Will no one rid me of this turbulent priest?"

    Politics in the US over the next year or so are going to be wild.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    kjh said:

    Having seen that speech I think that Boris would make one of the best after dinner speeches one is likely to hear

    The problem as Jeremy Vine noted is that BoZo has 1 good after dinner speech.

    He gives the same one, every time.

    Sir Ranulph Fiennes is the same. I saw him gave a brilliant after dinner speech. 3 times now.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    HYUFD said:

    Boris' speech seems to have gone down well, one audience member on the BBC said he was 'the best PM since Maggie'

    Were his eyes swivelling in their sockets while his hands were fidgeting in his trouser pockets?
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1179358283825664000

    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1179358316960591872

    Greive could be coming down with Brexit Psychosis?
    He's happiest when with his real friends, and they're honouring him. An honour, the Légion d'Honneur, that he shares with so-called "friend of Brexit" Vlad Putin.
    IMG_2409

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZUKEVU-TwM
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    SouthamObserver said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Boris does need to cut out the flowery oratory and make his speeches clearer and punchier.

    As far as any deal he may bring back to parliament is concerned, it does seem that remainer MPs are going to have a difficult time justifying refusing to back it if the suggested support from all wings of the Tory party is correct.

    Tories + Lab leavers is going to be very close to getting over the line.

    There is no deal that Johnson can bring back that would pass because there is no deal that can be done without EU agreement and any deal the EU agrees to will, by definition, be one that the ERG cannot agree to. Everyone knows this. We are now going through the rather tedious rigmarole of developing the blame game scenario that has always been such an obvious part of the Cummings strategy.

    Corbyn could put us out of the misery of that rigmarole, but won't.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    LOL!

    https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1179361590816251905?s=20
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    kjh said:

    Having seen that speech I think that Boris would make one of the best after dinner speeches one is likely to hear, but I suspect he maybe torn apart in a leaders debate. Having said that I can't visualise Corbyn in a leaders debate either.

    Didn't he do the 2017 leaders' debate?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited October 2019
    I see Corbyn Labour collapse to third again with Yougov behind the LDs as Tories up 1% with an 11% lead

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1179329601006428161?s=20
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    philiph said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1179355532869677057

    Although a large % of people "want it done"

    Once it is done there is a period of calm, adjustment and realignment as different factions work out new strategies and groupings as required.
    It will never "be done", or certainly within the life time of even the youngest contributor to PB (HYUFD perhaps?). Brexit is a cancer on this country. Those that encouraged it will eventually be called to account for the damage they have caused to our economy and our institutions. Let us hope Bozo, the number 1 cause of the cancer loses his seat. That would be a little bit of justice.
    True, it will never be done.

    That is applicable to remaining in the EU, Evolution, Time and Progress as well as many other things.

    By suggesting Brexit is a cancer on this country, I think you are confusing the cause with the symptom. It is the causes of Brexit that are the cancer. As yet there seem to very few suggestions for treating the causes.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyhoo the Portillo moment will be Boris Johnson losing his seat.

    The moment when BJ finds not only he sucks but he blows as well.

    What happens if Johnson loses his seat but the Tories cobble together enough DUP + UUP + Brexit + Tories to have the confidence of the Commons ?
    The new Tory MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme will stand down and let Boris Johnson win the by election.
    Matt Handcock surely...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1179362982809214978
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    I see Corbyn Labour collapse to third again with Yougov behind the LDs as Tories expand their lead

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1179329601006428161?s=20

    Technically their lead over the 2nd place party has remained static.
This discussion has been closed.