Even allowing for tactical voting that'll be a Tory majority. Libs will take seats of the Tories but flip plenty of Lab seats blue. It's in the Tory interest Libs and Lab are as close as possible in polling, they certainly don't want one pulling ahead of the other. So far Agent Swinson doing well enough!
It depends how the votes are distributed. I think it’s conceivable that both Labour and the Lib Dems could have a very efficient vote with the Lib Dems gaining a lot of Tory seats and Labour over-performing in defending theirs.
It's possible, the huge setback for the Libs is they are 3rd in so many seats. In 2017 they were 2nd in just 38 seats with about half of these in fairly Brexity parts of England (Southwest). It's going to be incredibly hard for them to go from 3rd to 1st place anywhere as they won't be the obvious stop Boris/stop Corbyn/stop Brexit alternative to the incumbent, even if the dodgy bar charts say otherwise!
Indeed.
Assuming that the Tories eventually manage to squeeze a couple of % back off the Brexit Party to get up to 36%, the differential in the latest YouGov between Con and Lib would be 13%, the same as in 2010.
In 2010 the Libs were defending 62 seats with the huge benefit (for the Libs) of incumbency and ended up with 57.
However, in 2017 they won only 12 seats and were 2nd in only another 38. They are in contention in just a handful of 3rd placed seats. In 2019 incumbency bonus is gone (and working against them), and tactical voting will occur but not as intensively as it might coming even from often quite distant places second and in seats which as often as not voted Leave.
Torbay is a good example, with a 28% gap between Con and Lib, and with a combined Lib + Lab vote still 5,000 or so short of the Con 2017 vote. It is ranked 19th in terms of the % gap from 1st to the Libs in 2nd place, but more likely than not to be out of reach, albeit narrowly.
So rather than 57 seats I think that the inference from current polling is that the Libs could realistically be looking to end up with something in the range 30 to 40 seats.
I didn't follow it live but I've read the excerpts. It seems like a particularly vacuous speech from Boris.
Did the Guardian quote this bit correctly?
When the chlorinated chickens waddle from the hencoop where they are hiding that is the vision of the country that we will put to the people and the choice is clear
Dominic Raab could lose his seat but it would not be a Portillo moment because Raab does not have the public profile. That would take a Jacob Rees-Mogg or Michael Gove.
I didn't follow it live but I've read the excerpts. It seems like a particularly vacuous speech from Boris.
Did the Guardian quote this bit correctly?
When the chlorinated chickens waddle from the hencoop where they are hiding that is the vision of the country that we will put to the people and the choice is clear
If not exactly that, something very close to it. It was one of a number of "eh?" moments. Boris is a bit vCJD sometimes.
I didn't follow it live but I've read the excerpts. It seems like a particularly vacuous speech from Boris.
Did the Guardian quote this bit correctly?
When the chlorinated chickens waddle from the hencoop where they are hiding that is the vision of the country that we will put to the people and the choice is clear
Yes
I do not envy whoever has to edit that for the one o'clock news. Technical Oscar incoming.
Even allowing for tactical voting that'll be a Tory majority. Libs will take seats of the Tories but flip plenty of Lab seats blue. It's in the Tory interest Libs and Lab are as close as possible in polling, they certainly don't want one pulling ahead of the other. So far Agent Swinson doing well enough!
It depends how the votes are distributed. I think it’s conceivable that both Labour and the Lib Dems could have a very efficient vote with the Lib Dems gaining a lot of Tory seats and Labour over-performing in defending theirs.
It's possible, the huge setback for the Libs is they are 3rd in so many seats. In 2017 they were 2nd in just 38 seats with about half of these in fairly Brexity parts of England (Southwest). It's going to be incredibly hard for them to go from 3rd to 1st place anywhere as they won't be the obvious stop Boris/stop Corbyn/stop Brexit alternative to the incumbent, even if the dodgy bar charts say otherwise!
Indeed.
Assuming that the Tories eventually manage to squeeze a couple of % back off the Brexit Party to get up to 36%, the differential in the latest YouGov between Con and Lib would be 13%, the same as in 2010.
In 2010 the Libs were defending 62 seats with the huge benefit (for the Libs) of incumbency and ended up with 57.
However, in 2017 they won only 12 seats and were 2nd in only another 38. They are in contention in just a handful of 3rd placed seats. In 2019 incumbency bonus is gone (and working against them), and tactical voting will occur but not as intensively as it might coming even from often quite distant places second and in seats which as often as not voted Leave.
Torbay is a good example, with a 28% gap between Con and Lib, and with a combined Lib + Lab vote still 5,000 or so short of the Con 2017 vote. It is ranked 19th in terms of the % gap from 1st to the Libs in 2nd place, but more likely than not to be out of reach, albeit narrowly.
So rather than 57 seats I think that the inference from current polling is that the Libs could realistically be looking to end up with something in the range 30 to 40 seats.
Torbay is less likely to go Lib Dem than a lot in seats in which the Lib Dems are further behind, due to its Brexityness. The Brexit Party even polled over 50% there in the European elections this year.
Have any of you esteemed ladies and gentlemen had any dealings with Acritas (https://www.acritas.com/) and if so could possibly share your experience(s)?
The Tory performance in E&W (two seats lost and neither to LDs) at the May elections was nothing out of the ordinary.
The LibDems are certainly treating the seat as a priority and will doubtless flood the place in the election but the Conservatives will also focus all attention locally.
Upshot (my guess) is that Raab’s majority will be substantially reduced from the current 23,000, perhaps even to around 8-10,000 but I’d be astounded if this was a LibDem gain.
Boris does need to cut out the flowery oratory and make his speeches clearer and punchier.
As far as any deal he may bring back to parliament is concerned, it does seem that remainer MPs are going to have a difficult time justifying refusing to back it if the suggested support from all wings of the Tory party is correct.
Tories + Lab leavers is going to be very close to getting over the line.
Since the speech had no new policy and no details of any offer to the EU, it seems like it was nothing much more than a crowd-pleaser. It seems to have done that efficiently.
It's possible, the huge setback for the Libs is they are 3rd in so many seats. In 2017 they were 2nd in just 38 seats with about half of these in fairly Brexity parts of England (Southwest). It's going to be incredibly hard for them to go from 3rd to 1st place anywhere as they won't be the obvious stop Boris/stop Corbyn/stop Brexit alternative to the incumbent, even if the dodgy bar charts say otherwise!
Indeed.
Assuming that the Tories eventually manage to squeeze a couple of % back off the Brexit Party to get up to 36%, the differential in the latest YouGov between Con and Lib would be 13%, the same as in 2010.
In 2010 the Libs were defending 62 seats with the huge benefit (for the Libs) of incumbency and ended up with 57.
However, in 2017 they won only 12 seats and were 2nd in only another 38. They are in contention in just a handful of 3rd placed seats. In 2019 incumbency bonus is gone (and working against them), and tactical voting will occur but not as intensively as it might coming even from often quite distant places second and in seats which as often as not voted Leave.
Torbay is a good example, with a 28% gap between Con and Lib, and with a combined Lib + Lab vote still 5,000 or so short of the Con 2017 vote. It is ranked 19th in terms of the % gap from 1st to the Libs in 2nd place, but more likely than not to be out of reach, albeit narrowly.
So rather than 57 seats I think that the inference from current polling is that the Libs could realistically be looking to end up with something in the range 30 to 40 seats.
Torbay is less likely to go Lib Dem than a lot in seats in which the Lib Dems are further behind, due to its Brexityness. The Brexit Party even polled over 50% there in the European elections this year.
Well indeed. It's precisely why if the Libs are to win a similar number of seats to 2010 they will have to look to long shots like the one featured in this thread, where they will have to win from a very long way back indeed. It'll also mean spreading the targeting jam thinly as it will be less clear which ones are in play and I can't imagine them not trying in their 2nd place seats.
Tories plus Brexit Party were ahead of the LDs in Elmbridge in the European Parliament elections even with Labour squeezed down to just 3%, so Raab should hold on
On topic (for once) my model, which is not particularly favourable to the Tories, has this as a hold, although the Lib Dems will run him too close for comfort. So a QTWTAIN for me.
Since the speech had no new policy and no details of any offer to the EU, it seems like it was nothing much more than a crowd-pleaser. It seems to have done that efficiently.
Echo chamber speech, ok delivery. Will soon be forgotten. Still, better than a lot of Theresa May's bizarre calamities.
Once it is done there is a period of calm, adjustment and realignment as different factions work out new strategies and groupings as required.
It will never "be done", or certainly within the life time of even the youngest contributor to PB (HYUFD perhaps?). Brexit is a cancer on this country. Those that encouraged it will eventually be called to account for the damage they have caused to our economy and our institutions. Let us hope Bozo, the number 1 cause of the cancer loses his seat. That would be a little bit of justice.
Some of us have been pointing that out for months.
You were right. Boris could easily have given himself some wiggle room with talk of a deal by the sping, but instead he got out the paint and started covering the floor.
In an interview with Emma Barnett on Radio 5 Live Liz Truss, the international trade secretary, said that if the UK did not agree a Brexit deal with the EU, it would leave on 31 October anyway.
Asked how that would be possible given that the Benn Act requires the PM to request an extension in these circumstance, Truss admitted that she did now know. She said: "I don’t know the precise details of exactly what we will do, and even if I did I wouldn’t tell you."
At PMQs, Diane Abbot and Dominic Raab addressed abuse of MPs, following last week's dismissal by Boris. Simultaneously, Boris asked conference if they'd been abused on the way in. No, came the answer.
I have lives in E&W for over 30 years . The Tories have never lost the seat in over 100 years and Raab is popular here.It is in parts like Oxshott, Cobham and Esher uber affluent and "High Tory" .Large numbers send their kids to private schools. Whilst there are many remainer types, eg bankers and lawyers who work in The City they are not going to risk a Lib /Lab government.Be surprised if Raab has less than 10,000 majority personally.
Since the speech had no new policy and no details of any offer to the EU, it seems like it was nothing much more than a crowd-pleaser. It seems to have done that efficiently.
Well it's certainly the first time I can recall that I've laughed out loud at any leader's speech. The "I'm a celebrity" bit about Bercow being forced to eat a "kangaroo's testicle" was a classic.
Even allowing for tactical voting that'll be a Tory majority. Libs will take seats of the Tories but flip plenty of Lab seats blue. It's in the Tory interest Libs and Lab are as close as possible in polling, they certainly don't want one pulling ahead of the other. So far Agent Swinson doing well enough!
It depends how the votes are distributed. I think it’s conceivable that both Labour and the Lib Dems could have a very efficient vote with the Lib Dems gaining a lot of Tory seats and Labour over-performing in defending theirs.
It's possible, the huge setback for the Libs is they are 3rd in so many seats. In 2017 they were 2nd in just 38 seats with about half of these in fairly Brexity parts of England (Southwest). It's going to be incredibly hard for them to go from 3rd to 1st place anywhere as they won't be the obvious stop Boris/stop Corbyn/stop Brexit alternative to the incumbent, even if the dodgy bar charts say otherwise!
Indeed.
Assuming that the Tories eventually manage to squeeze a couple of % back off the Brexit Party to get up to 36%, the differential in the latest YouGov between Con and Lib would be 13%, the same as in 2010.
In 2010 the Libs were defending 62 seats with the huge benefit (for the Libs) of incumbency and ended up with 57.
However, in 2017 they won only 12 seats and were 2nd in only another 38. They are in contention in just a handful of 3rd placed seats. In 2019 incumbency bonus is gone (and working against them), and tactical voting will occur but not as intensively as it might coming even from often quite distant places second and in seats which as often as not voted Leave.
Torbay is a good example, with a 28% gap between Con and Lib, and with a combined Lib + Lab vote still 5,000 or so short of the Con 2017 vote. It is ranked 19th in terms of the % gap from 1st to the Libs in 2nd place, but more likely than not to be out of reach, albeit narrowly.
So rather than 57 seats I think that the inference from current polling is that the Libs could realistically be looking to end up with something in the range 30 to 40 seats.
Torbay is less likely to go Lib Dem than a lot in seats in which the Lib Dems are further behind, due to its Brexityness. The Brexit Party even polled over 50% there in the European elections this year.
I think the Lib Dems will win this by a few %-points, along with North Devon and 4 seats in Cornwall.
The Tory performance in E&W (two seats lost and neither to LDs) at the May elections was nothing out of the ordinary.
The LibDems are certainly treating the seat as a priority and will doubtless flood the place in the election but the Conservatives will also focus all attention locally.
Upshot (my guess) is that Raab’s majority will be substantially reduced from the current 23,000, perhaps even to around 8-10,000 but I’d be astounded if this was a LibDem gain.
Boris does need to cut out the flowery oratory and make his speeches clearer and punchier.
As far as any deal he may bring back to parliament is concerned, it does seem that remainer MPs are going to have a difficult time justifying refusing to back it if the suggested support from all wings of the Tory party is correct.
Tories + Lab leavers is going to be very close to getting over the line.
There is no deal that Johnson can bring back that would pass because there is no deal that can be done without EU agreement and any deal the EU agrees to will, by definition, be one that the ERG cannot agree to. Everyone knows this. We are now going through the rather tedious rigmarole of developing the blame game scenario that has always been such an obvious part of the Cummings strategy.
Having seen that speech I think that Boris would make one of the best after dinner speeches one is likely to hear, but I suspect he maybe torn apart in a leaders debate. Having said that I can't visualise Corbyn in a leaders debate either.
I think there's a much greater chance of Boris being voted out of his seat than Raab!
If Boris falls but the Tories win a majority Raab could well be our next Prime Minister actually...
Boris is safe, the Brexit Party won Hillingdon in the European Parliament elections beating Labour and the LDs and the Tories retained the council in 2018
Having seen that speech I think that Boris would make one of the best after dinner speeches one is likely to hear, but I suspect he maybe torn apart in a leaders debate. Having said that I can't visualise Corbyn in a leaders debate either.
Greive could be coming down with Brexit Psychosis?
Hes becoming a bit of an hysterical old queen
Hmm, he is actually a very intelligent principled man who hasn't fallen for the biggest con trick in British history. I think he generally leaves hysteria to those who share your views, since it is a condition that many right wing xenophobic fanatics have had since the beginning of time, indeed 'tis a necessary condition for such a warped frame of mind.
Greive could be coming down with Brexit Psychosis?
He's happiest when with his real friends, and they're honouring him. An honour, the Légion d'Honneur, that he shares with so-called "friend of Brexit" Vlad Putin.
Boris does need to cut out the flowery oratory and make his speeches clearer and punchier.
As far as any deal he may bring back to parliament is concerned, it does seem that remainer MPs are going to have a difficult time justifying refusing to back it if the suggested support from all wings of the Tory party is correct.
Tories + Lab leavers is going to be very close to getting over the line.
There is no deal that Johnson can bring back that would pass because there is no deal that can be done without EU agreement and any deal the EU agrees to will, by definition, be one that the ERG cannot agree to. Everyone knows this. We are now going through the rather tedious rigmarole of developing the blame game scenario that has always been such an obvious part of the Cummings strategy.
Corbyn could put us out of the misery of that rigmarole, but won't.
Having seen that speech I think that Boris would make one of the best after dinner speeches one is likely to hear, but I suspect he maybe torn apart in a leaders debate. Having said that I can't visualise Corbyn in a leaders debate either.
Once it is done there is a period of calm, adjustment and realignment as different factions work out new strategies and groupings as required.
It will never "be done", or certainly within the life time of even the youngest contributor to PB (HYUFD perhaps?). Brexit is a cancer on this country. Those that encouraged it will eventually be called to account for the damage they have caused to our economy and our institutions. Let us hope Bozo, the number 1 cause of the cancer loses his seat. That would be a little bit of justice.
True, it will never be done.
That is applicable to remaining in the EU, Evolution, Time and Progress as well as many other things.
By suggesting Brexit is a cancer on this country, I think you are confusing the cause with the symptom. It is the causes of Brexit that are the cancer. As yet there seem to very few suggestions for treating the causes.
Comments
The moment when BJ finds not only he sucks but he blows as well.
Assuming that the Tories eventually manage to squeeze a couple of % back off the Brexit Party to get up to 36%, the differential in the latest YouGov between Con and Lib would be 13%, the same as in 2010.
In 2010 the Libs were defending 62 seats with the huge benefit (for the Libs) of incumbency and ended up with 57.
However, in 2017 they won only 12 seats and were 2nd in only another 38. They are in contention in just a handful of 3rd placed seats. In 2019 incumbency bonus is gone (and working against them), and tactical voting will occur but not as intensively as it might coming even from often quite distant places second and in seats which as often as not voted Leave.
Torbay is a good example, with a 28% gap between Con and Lib, and with a combined Lib + Lab vote still 5,000 or so short of the Con 2017 vote. It is ranked 19th in terms of the % gap from 1st to the Libs in 2nd place, but more likely than not to be out of reach, albeit narrowly.
So rather than 57 seats I think that the inference from current polling is that the Libs could realistically be looking to end up with something in the range 30 to 40 seats.
And Boris is seeking the votes of people like him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUVT1NZtZPo
However, I would want good odds before I bet on it.
Also: do what I say or people will die.
Did the Guardian quote this bit correctly?
When the chlorinated chickens waddle from the hencoop where they are hiding that is the vision of the country that we will put to the people and the choice is clear
Wrong to leave the EU 49%
Right to leave the EU 40%
If Boris falls but the Tories win a majority Raab could well be our next Prime Minister actually...
Once it is done there is a period of calm, adjustment and realignment as different factions work out new strategies and groupings as required.
I do not envy whoever has to edit that for the one o'clock news. Technical Oscar incoming.
There is panic, confusion, disorder and despair. And that's just the cabinet...
Someone said David Allen Green wouldn't accept any deal and people like him are the problem:
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1167332510461833216
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1179353250824364032
https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1179358316960591872
The LibDems are certainly treating the seat as a priority and will doubtless flood the place in the election but the Conservatives will also focus all attention locally.
Upshot (my guess) is that Raab’s majority will be substantially reduced from the current 23,000, perhaps even to around 8-10,000 but I’d be astounded if this was a LibDem gain.
As far as any deal he may bring back to parliament is concerned, it does seem that remainer MPs are going to have a difficult time justifying refusing to back it if the suggested support from all wings of the Tory party is correct.
Tories + Lab leavers is going to be very close to getting over the line.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1179179573541511176
https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/1179359165833269253
Is he going to throw the Spartans under the bus in the election campaign?
Still, better than a lot of Theresa May's bizarre calamities.
In an interview with Emma Barnett on Radio 5 Live Liz Truss, the international trade secretary, said that if the UK did not agree a Brexit deal with the EU, it would leave on 31 October anyway.
Asked how that would be possible given that the Benn Act requires the PM to request an extension in these circumstance, Truss admitted that she did now know. She said: "I don’t know the precise details of exactly what we will do, and even if I did I wouldn’t tell you."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/oct/02/brexit-latest-news-conservative-conference-boris-johnsons-plan-for-alternative-to-backstop-gets-early-frosty-reception-from-eu-live-news?page=with:block-5d947b8e8f081108db9c0b9b#liveblog-navigation
11:27
Tory conference ends without Labour proposing a VONC in the Commons as feared
The Tories have never lost the seat in over 100 years and Raab is popular here.It is in parts like Oxshott, Cobham and Esher uber affluent and "High Tory" .Large numbers send their kids to private schools.
Whilst there are many remainer types, eg bankers and lawyers who work in The City they are not going to risk a Lib /Lab government.Be surprised if Raab has less than 10,000 majority personally.
Not that I would vote for him in a million years.
My view: it was an enjoyable speech. Genuinely the first time I have ever laughed at a politician's gag.
https://twitter.com/BBCJonSopel/status/1179361240122040320
Grieve is starting to remind me of Colonel Nicholson is the final scenes of Bridge Over The River Kwai.
Politics in the US over the next year or so are going to be wild.
He gives the same one, every time.
Sir Ranulph Fiennes is the same. I saw him gave a brilliant after dinner speech. 3 times now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZUKEVU-TwM
https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1179361590816251905?s=20
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1179329601006428161?s=20
That is applicable to remaining in the EU, Evolution, Time and Progress as well as many other things.
By suggesting Brexit is a cancer on this country, I think you are confusing the cause with the symptom. It is the causes of Brexit that are the cancer. As yet there seem to very few suggestions for treating the causes.