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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dominic Raab – a contender for the next election’s “Portillo m

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  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    HYUFD said:

    I see Corbyn Labour collapse to third again with Yougov behind the LDs as Tories up 1% with an 11% lead

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1179329601006428161?s=20

    Ooh hello. How many of these before we can declare "tipping point"?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    Some of us have been pointing that out for months.
    People who are crowing that Boris's strategy is working don't seem to have anticipated what happens when Brexit voters conclude 'Nigel was right - we shouldn't have trusted him'.
  • Byronic said:

    This is a confident and rollicking performance from Boris. Certainly not a prime minster cowering, angry and under attack.

    But you are biased

    Byronic said:

    This is a confident and rollicking performance from Boris. Certainly not a prime minster cowering, angry and under attack.

    But you are biased
    Who isn't?

    And Boris is seeking the votes of people like him.
    Thickies?

    On topic, as a constituent, the LDs are locally active already, but I think this will be a bridge too far for them to win it
  • What are the odds on LD getting more votes, but fewer seats than LAB?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Tabman said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see Corbyn Labour collapse to third again with Yougov behind the LDs as Tories up 1% with an 11% lead

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1179329601006428161?s=20

    Ooh hello. How many of these before we can declare "tipping point"?
    A little while yet:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1179349934031736832
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Tabman said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see Corbyn Labour collapse to third again with Yougov behind the LDs as Tories up 1% with an 11% lead

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1179329601006428161?s=20

    Ooh hello. How many of these before we can declare "tipping point"?
    But which way are we going to tip?
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    philiph said:



    By suggesting Brexit is a cancer on this country, I think you are confusing the cause with the symptom. It is the causes of Brexit that are the cancer. As yet there seem to very few suggestions for treating the causes.

    All the Brexiteers can go and live in Leaverstan, and the Remainers move to Remainia. Like the population swaps after the Greco-Turkish war of 1922 :neutral:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,273

    What are the odds on LD getting more votes, but fewer seats than LAB?
    High it will take 2 elections for the LDs to get more seats than Labour and be contender for most seats
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    philiph said:

    By suggesting Brexit is a cancer on this country, I think you are confusing the cause with the symptom. It is the causes of Brexit that are the cancer. As yet there seem to very few suggestions for treating the causes.

    The cause is our semi-detached relationship. The cure is to join the Euro.
  • Very interesting header...

    I lived for 5 years in the village of Thames Ditton which falls into Raabs seat so know the area well..

    I think it will be very close next time with the LDs doing very well indeed.. I do think Raab will hold on only because the Tory vote across this area is very tribal and I think will be quite difficult to get to switch at at GE. This area also has very few naturally brexit party inclined voters which will see a below average tory to brexit bleed which should help Raab too..

    Interestingly I imagine the huge houses in Esher and Thames Ditton which have always been the backbone of the Tory vote here will be the ones switching to the LDs and the less affluent areas (though only by E&W standards) of Walton on Thames and Long Ditton will be the ones to be more loyal and save Raab
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,273

    Some of us have been pointing that out for months.
    People who are crowing that Boris's strategy is working don't seem to have anticipated what happens when Brexit voters conclude 'Nigel was right - we shouldn't have trusted him'.
    They aren't, Brexit Party down to the 12% UKIP got in 2015 with Yougov today while the Tories have an 11% lead
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    It’s pretty clear from Scott’s tweet anecdotes that the nation is against Boris.

    Probably not even worth him standing next time.

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551

    On topic (for once) my model, which is not particularly favourable to the Tories, has this as a hold, although the Lib Dems will run him too close for comfort. So a QTWTAIN for me.

    My model has it as a Tory hold as well with LibDems not far behind.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    HYUFD said:

    Some of us have been pointing that out for months.
    People who are crowing that Boris's strategy is working don't seem to have anticipated what happens when Brexit voters conclude 'Nigel was right - we shouldn't have trusted him'.
    They aren't, Brexit Party down to the 12% UKIP got in 2015 with Yougov today while the Tories have an 11% lead
    He hasn't broken his promise to leave come what may yet.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    HYUFD said:

    Some of us have been pointing that out for months.
    People who are crowing that Boris's strategy is working don't seem to have anticipated what happens when Brexit voters conclude 'Nigel was right - we shouldn't have trusted him'.
    They aren't, Brexit Party down to the 12% UKIP got in 2015 with Yougov today while the Tories have an 11% lead
    Skipping over the "when" in the post you were replying to made your job so much easier there ;)
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    SunnyJim said:

    Scott_P said:

    Grieve is starting to remind me of Colonel Nicholson is the final scenes of Bridge Over The River Kwai.
    Cummings has rolled his tanks over Grieve’s Maginot line and he doesn’t like it up ‘I’m...
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    kjh said:

    Having seen that speech I think that Boris would make one of the best after dinner speeches one is likely to hear, but I suspect he maybe torn apart in a leaders debate. Having said that I can't visualise Corbyn in a leaders debate either.

    Swinson will shine in comparison.
  • Very interesting header...

    I lived for 5 years in the village of Thames Ditton which falls into Raabs seat so know the area well..

    I think it will be very close next time with the LDs doing very well indeed.. I do think Raab will hold on only because the Tory vote across this area is very tribal and I think will be quite difficult to get to switch at at GE. This area also has very few naturally brexit party inclined voters which will see a below average tory to brexit bleed which should help Raab too..

    Interestingly I imagine the huge houses in Esher and Thames Ditton which have always been the backbone of the Tory vote here will be the ones switching to the LDs and the less affluent areas (though only by E&W standards) of Walton on Thames and Long Ditton will be the ones to be more loyal and save Raab

    The area around Thames Ditton , Hinchley Wood has always been more strongly
    pro Lib Dem than other parts like Oxshott and Cobham where the Tory vote is weighed.These parts which also have huge houses will stay loyal to Raab.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Tabman said:

    philiph said:



    By suggesting Brexit is a cancer on this country, I think you are confusing the cause with the symptom. It is the causes of Brexit that are the cancer. As yet there seem to very few suggestions for treating the causes.

    All the Brexiteers can go and live in Leaverstan, and the Remainers move to Remainia. Like the population swaps after the Greco-Turkish war of 1922 :neutral:
    Perhaps if Lincolnshire were to leave the EU, and all the Brexists could move there.
    We can employ people to stand at the border, and if any Brexists make a bid for freedom, like some kind of jihadi bride wanting to get out of Syria, we can spray them with water misters to repel them. I mean, not that they'd want to escape. They don't believe in freedom of movement, do they?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Good afternoon, my fellow classicists.
  • GIN1138 said:
    Hes becoming a bit of an hysterical old queen
    Hmm, he is actually a very intelligent principled man who hasn't fallen for the biggest con trick in British history. I think he generally leaves hysteria to those who share your views, since it is a condition that many right wing xenophobic fanatics have had since the beginning of time, indeed 'tis a necessary condition for such a warped frame of mind.
    No I think hysterical old queen sums it up.. And I'm an old queen (less hysterical I like to think) so I should know..

    I will be glad when Brexit is done as it seems to be sending previously rational people on both sides loopy..

    I always admired Greive and his principled stances even though I didn't always agree with them but in the last month he has really seemed a little unhinged which is not befitting of such a intellectual and well educated person
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,273

    HYUFD said:

    Some of us have been pointing that out for months.
    People who are crowing that Boris's strategy is working don't seem to have anticipated what happens when Brexit voters conclude 'Nigel was right - we shouldn't have trusted him'.
    They aren't, Brexit Party down to the 12% UKIP got in 2015 with Yougov today while the Tories have an 11% lead
    He hasn't broken his promise to leave come what may yet.
    He will not break it, Boris voted against extension unlike most MPs and a civil servant will sign the extension letter not Boris
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    edited October 2019

    GIN1138 said:
    He's happiest when with his real friends, and they're honouring him. An honour, the Légion d'Honneur, that he shares with so-called "friend of Brexit" Vlad Putin.
    IMG_2409

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZUKEVU-TwM
    It is also an honour he shares with Sir Winston Churchill.

    Heck Churchill tried to merge the Le Royaume-Uni with France.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Some of us have been pointing that out for months.
    People who are crowing that Boris's strategy is working don't seem to have anticipated what happens when Brexit voters conclude 'Nigel was right - we shouldn't have trusted him'.
    They aren't, Brexit Party down to the 12% UKIP got in 2015 with Yougov today while the Tories have an 11% lead
    He hasn't broken his promise to leave come what may yet.
    He will not break it, Boris voted against extension unlike most MPs and a civil servant will sign the extension letter not Boris
    You've dropped the theory that he'll resign then?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Scott_P said:
    Do you find such blinkered outlooks frustrating Scott?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Some of us have been pointing that out for months.
    People who are crowing that Boris's strategy is working don't seem to have anticipated what happens when Brexit voters conclude 'Nigel was right - we shouldn't have trusted him'.
    They aren't, Brexit Party down to the 12% UKIP got in 2015 with Yougov today while the Tories have an 11% lead
    He hasn't broken his promise to leave come what may yet.
    He will not break it, Boris voted against extension unlike most MPs and a civil servant will sign the extension letter not Boris
    Yesterday you were telling us he would resign rather than countenance an extension.
  • SunnyJim said:

    Scott_P said:

    Grieve is starting to remind me of Colonel Nicholson is the final scenes of Bridge Over The River Kwai.
    Excellent analogy!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,273

    Very interesting header...

    I lived for 5 years in the village of Thames Ditton which falls into Raabs seat so know the area well..

    I think it will be very close next time with the LDs doing very well indeed.. I do think Raab will hold on only because the Tory vote across this area is very tribal and I think will be quite difficult to get to switch at at GE. This area also has very few naturally brexit party inclined voters which will see a below average tory to brexit bleed which should help Raab too..

    Interestingly I imagine the huge houses in Esher and Thames Ditton which have always been the backbone of the Tory vote here will be the ones switching to the LDs and the less affluent areas (though only by E&W standards) of Walton on Thames and Long Ditton will be the ones to be more loyal and save Raab

    The area around Thames Ditton , Hinchley Wood has always been more strongly
    pro Lib Dem than other parts like Oxshott and Cobham where the Tory vote is weighed.These parts which also have huge houses will stay loyal to Raab.
    Aligns with my experience in Epping, the biggest houses now are often LD, certainly locally, the semis tend to be Tory and the poorest parts and the social housing are Labour still but pro Brexit and so more Tory than they were
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    HYUFD said:

    Some of us have been pointing that out for months.
    People who are crowing that Boris's strategy is working don't seem to have anticipated what happens when Brexit voters conclude 'Nigel was right - we shouldn't have trusted him'.
    They aren't, Brexit Party down to the 12% UKIP got in 2015 with Yougov today while the Tories have an 11% lead
    In 2015 Cameron got a majority despite the high ukip vote because he won 25 seats from the LDs. In a future election there will be no collapse LD vote, indeed they will be resurgent in many tory seats. So 12% BXP should still be very concerning for Boris.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    edited October 2019
    Hancock is competing with Mundell for most cuckolded remainer in the Tory parliamentary party right now.
  • Very interesting header...

    I lived for 5 years in the village of Thames Ditton which falls into Raabs seat so know the area well..

    I think it will be very close next time with the LDs doing very well indeed.. I do think Raab will hold on only because the Tory vote across this area is very tribal and I think will be quite difficult to get to switch at at GE. This area also has very few naturally brexit party inclined voters which will see a below average tory to brexit bleed which should help Raab too..

    Interestingly I imagine the huge houses in Esher and Thames Ditton which have always been the backbone of the Tory vote here will be the ones switching to the LDs and the less affluent areas (though only by E&W standards) of Walton on Thames and Long Ditton will be the ones to be more loyal and save Raab

    The area around Thames Ditton , Hinchley Wood has always been more strongly
    pro Lib Dem than other parts like Oxshott and Cobham where the Tory vote is weighed.These parts which also have huge houses will stay loyal to Raab.
    Agree entirely..

    There is a tenancy to look at local election results here and extrapolate tory losses go GE loads but with Elmbridge having so many residents association candidates it's hard to really tell much from them.. My feeling is the residents association voters are generally more LD inclined (the candidates for them in this area almost certainly are) but who knows this for sure and could be one to watch on election night
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427

    Good afternoon, my fellow classicists.

    Good afternoon to you too!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,273
    edited October 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Without the DUP the Withdrawal Agreement will not get through this Parliament given only a handful of Labour MPs at most will ever vote for it
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    Barnesian said:

    kjh said:

    Having seen that speech I think that Boris would make one of the best after dinner speeches one is likely to hear, but I suspect he maybe torn apart in a leaders debate. Having said that I can't visualise Corbyn in a leaders debate either.

    Swinson will shine in comparison.
    She's going to need some serious coaching to get rid of the verbal tics she repeats - they really get in the way of listening to what she has to say.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    Tory Geoffrey Clifton-Brown kicked out of conference after police called to row
    Gove off his face HOC last week
    Johnsons sexual assault
    Johnson spending tax payers money ex mistress
    So glad Tories going to clamp down on crime !!
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    HYUFD said:

    What are the odds on LD getting more votes, but fewer seats than LAB?
    High it will take 2 elections for the LDs to get more seats than Labour and be contender for most seats
    I wonder if something egregious like 210 seats Lab / 45 seats LD, but vote shares of 24% / 26% may move the dial on PR.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    edited October 2019
    Did not catch the speech. I'm guessing it was quite well received in the hall?
  • HYUFD said:

    Very interesting header...

    I lived for 5 years in the village of Thames Ditton which falls into Raabs seat so know the area well..

    I think it will be very close next time with the LDs doing very well indeed.. I do think Raab will hold on only because the Tory vote across this area is very tribal and I think will be quite difficult to get to switch at at GE. This area also has very few naturally brexit party inclined voters which will see a below average tory to brexit bleed which should help Raab too..

    Interestingly I imagine the huge houses in Esher and Thames Ditton which have always been the backbone of the Tory vote here will be the ones switching to the LDs and the less affluent areas (though only by E&W standards) of Walton on Thames and Long Ditton will be the ones to be more loyal and save Raab

    The area around Thames Ditton , Hinchley Wood has always been more strongly
    pro Lib Dem than other parts like Oxshott and Cobham where the Tory vote is weighed.These parts which also have huge houses will stay loyal to Raab.
    Aligns with my experience in Epping, the biggest houses now are often LD, certainly locally, the semis tend to be Tory and the poorest parts and the social housing are Labour still but pro Brexit and so more Tory than they were
    It is one thing when you can dabble in a local election. If you live in a £2million house and send your kids to private school you will think twice about risking that in a General Election where the main challenger wants to abolish your kid's school and take your house from you.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,273
    edited October 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Some of us have been pointing that out for months.
    People who are crowing that Boris's strategy is working don't seem to have anticipated what happens when Brexit voters conclude 'Nigel was right - we shouldn't have trusted him'.
    They aren't, Brexit Party down to the 12% UKIP got in 2015 with Yougov today while the Tories have an 11% lead
    In 2015 Cameron got a majority despite the high ukip vote because he won 25 seats from the LDs. In a future election there will be no collapse LD vote, indeed they will be resurgent in many tory seats. So 12% BXP should still be very concerning for Boris.
    The Tories also have a 13% lead over Corbyn Labour under Boris with Yougov today, Cameron's Tories only led Ed Miliband's Labour by 7% so that should not concern the Tories at all, only if the BXP are over 15% should the Tories be concerned
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427

    HYUFD said:

    Very interesting header...

    I lived for 5 years in the village of Thames Ditton which falls into Raabs seat so know the area well..

    I think it will be very close next time with the LDs doing very well indeed.. I do think Raab will hold on only because the Tory vote across this area is very tribal and I think will be quite difficult to get to switch at at GE. This area also has very few naturally brexit party inclined voters which will see a below average tory to brexit bleed which should help Raab too..

    Interestingly I imagine the huge houses in Esher and Thames Ditton which have always been the backbone of the Tory vote here will be the ones switching to the LDs and the less affluent areas (though only by E&W standards) of Walton on Thames and Long Ditton will be the ones to be more loyal and save Raab

    The area around Thames Ditton , Hinchley Wood has always been more strongly
    pro Lib Dem than other parts like Oxshott and Cobham where the Tory vote is weighed.These parts which also have huge houses will stay loyal to Raab.
    Aligns with my experience in Epping, the biggest houses now are often LD, certainly locally, the semis tend to be Tory and the poorest parts and the social housing are Labour still but pro Brexit and so more Tory than they were
    It is one thing when you can dabble in a local election. If you live in a £2million house and send your kids to private school you will think twice about risking that in a General Election where the main challenger wants to abolish your kid's school and take your house from you.
    What risk is there of a Labour government if they poll 20%?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    It is part of Boris' charm that he was 100% aware that it was he who made the comment.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    HYUFD said:

    Very interesting header...

    I lived for 5 years in the village of Thames Ditton which falls into Raabs seat so know the area well..

    I think it will be very close next time with the LDs doing very well indeed.. I do think Raab will hold on only because the Tory vote across this area is very tribal and I think will be quite difficult to get to switch at at GE. This area also has very few naturally brexit party inclined voters which will see a below average tory to brexit bleed which should help Raab too..

    Interestingly I imagine the huge houses in Esher and Thames Ditton which have always been the backbone of the Tory vote here will be the ones switching to the LDs and the less affluent areas (though only by E&W standards) of Walton on Thames and Long Ditton will be the ones to be more loyal and save Raab

    The area around Thames Ditton , Hinchley Wood has always been more strongly
    pro Lib Dem than other parts like Oxshott and Cobham where the Tory vote is weighed.These parts which also have huge houses will stay loyal to Raab.
    Aligns with my experience in Epping, the biggest houses now are often LD, certainly locally, the semis tend to be Tory and the poorest parts and the social housing are Labour still but pro Brexit and so more Tory than they were
    It is one thing when you can dabble in a local election. If you live in a £2million house and send your kids to private school you will think twice about risking that in a General Election where the main challenger wants to abolish your kid's school and take your house from you.
    That assumes LAB will be the main challenger
  • TOPPING said:

    It is part of Boris' charm that he was 100% aware that it was he who made the comment.
    Only the true Messiah denies his divinity?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Good afternoon, my fellow classicists.

    Good afternoon to you too!
    Salvete.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TGOHF2 said:
    Brave of a man called Johnson to wade into nominative determinism.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    Sleazy Broken Jester on the slide

    Sleazy Broken Tory Swinson back to 3rd place

    Most recent preference for Prime Minister:

    B. Johnson: 27% (-2)
    J. Corbyn: 16% (+3)
    J. Swinson: 14% (-)
    N. Farage: 8% (-1)
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Noo said:

    Tabman said:

    philiph said:



    By suggesting Brexit is a cancer on this country, I think you are confusing the cause with the symptom. It is the causes of Brexit that are the cancer. As yet there seem to very few suggestions for treating the causes.

    All the Brexiteers can go and live in Leaverstan, and the Remainers move to Remainia. Like the population swaps after the Greco-Turkish war of 1922 :neutral:
    Perhaps if Lincolnshire were to leave the EU, and all the Brexists could move there.
    We can employ people to stand at the border, and if any Brexists make a bid for freedom, like some kind of jihadi bride wanting to get out of Syria, we can spray them with water misters to repel them. I mean, not that they'd want to escape. They don't believe in freedom of movement, do they?
    Kind of like an Anti-Netherlands! Flat, populous and illiberal.
  • philiph said:

    Scott_P said:
    Although a large % of people "want it done"

    Once it is done there is a period of calm, adjustment and realignment as different factions work out new strategies and groupings as required.
    It will never "be done", or certainly within the life time of even the youngest contributor to PB (HYUFD perhaps?). Brexit is a cancer on this country. Those that encouraged it will eventually be called to account for the damage they have caused to our economy and our institutions. Let us hope Bozo, the number 1 cause of the cancer loses his seat. That would be a little bit of justice.
    Much the same could be said of many post-war Labour governments (especially Tony Blair's).

    But despite that most people seem able to grasp what you seemingly cannot - a majority is a majority.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,273
    edited October 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Very interesting header...

    I lived for 5 years in the village of Thames Ditton which falls into Raabs seat so know the area well..

    I think it will be very close next time with the LDs doing very well indeed.. I do think Raab will hold on only because the Tory vote across this area is very tribal and I think will be quite difficult to get to switch at at GE. This area also has very few naturally brexit party inclined voters which will see a below average tory to brexit bleed which should help Raab too..

    Interestingly I imagine the huge houses in Esher and Thames Ditton which have always been the backbone of the Tory vote here will be the ones switching to the LDs and the less affluent areas (though only by E&W standards) of Walton on Thames and Long Ditton will be the ones to be more loyal and save Raab

    The area around Thames Ditton , Hinchley Wood has always been more strongly
    pro Lib Dem than other parts like Oxshott and Cobham where the Tory vote is weighed.These parts which also have huge houses will stay loyal to Raab.
    Aligns with my experience in Epping, the biggest houses now are often LD, certainly locally, the semis tend to be Tory and the poorest parts and the social housing are Labour still but pro Brexit and so more Tory than they were
    It is one thing when you can dabble in a local election. If you live in a £2million house and send your kids to private school you will think twice about risking that in a General Election where the main challenger wants to abolish your kid's school and take your house from you.
    Yes, it will take the Liberal Democrats to overtake Labour nationally for some wealthy voters to risk voting LD nationally rather than just locally
  • HYUFD said:

    Very interesting header...

    I lived for 5 years in the village of Thames Ditton which falls into Raabs seat so know the area well..

    I think it will be very close next time with the LDs doing very well indeed.. I do think Raab will hold on only because the Tory vote across this area is very tribal and I think will be quite difficult to get to switch at at GE. This area also has very few naturally brexit party inclined voters which will see a below average tory to brexit bleed which should help Raab too..

    Interestingly I imagine the huge houses in Esher and Thames Ditton which have always been the backbone of the Tory vote here will be the ones switching to the LDs and the less affluent areas (though only by E&W standards) of Walton on Thames and Long Ditton will be the ones to be more loyal and save Raab

    The area around Thames Ditton , Hinchley Wood has always been more strongly
    pro Lib Dem than other parts like Oxshott and Cobham where the Tory vote is weighed.These parts which also have huge houses will stay loyal to Raab.
    Aligns with my experience in Epping, the biggest houses now are often LD, certainly locally, the semis tend to be Tory and the poorest parts and the social housing are Labour still but pro Brexit and so more Tory than they were
    It is one thing when you can dabble in a local election. If you live in a £2million house and send your kids to private school you will think twice about risking that in a General Election where the main challenger wants to abolish your kid's school and take your house from you.
    What risk is there of a Labour government if they poll 20%?
    Elections are very unpredictable things as the 2017 election showed and you can easily imagine a Lib/Lab Government.Would such a Government abolish private schools? Who knows and why take the risk?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,273
    Tabman said:

    HYUFD said:

    What are the odds on LD getting more votes, but fewer seats than LAB?
    High it will take 2 elections for the LDs to get more seats than Labour and be contender for most seats
    I wonder if something egregious like 210 seats Lab / 45 seats LD, but vote shares of 24% / 26% may move the dial on PR.

    Not for Labour and not for the LDs if they win most seats the next time
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Some of us have been pointing that out for months.
    People who are crowing that Boris's strategy is working don't seem to have anticipated what happens when Brexit voters conclude 'Nigel was right - we shouldn't have trusted him'.
    They aren't, Brexit Party down to the 12% UKIP got in 2015 with Yougov today while the Tories have an 11% lead
    He hasn't broken his promise to leave come what may yet.
    He will not break it, Boris voted against extension unlike most MPs and a civil servant will sign the extension letter not Boris
    You've dropped the theory that he'll resign then?
    HY doesn't have theories. One certainty simply gets elided into a different one.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Scott_P said:
    On the contrary, Emily, defending waffly policy-free bollocks is in every politician’s comfort zone.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TOPPING said:

    It is part of Boris' charm that he was 100% aware that it was he who made the comment.
    Good Lord, how can anyone have thought that wasn't the joke?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Stephen hammond of the 21 will vote against a Corbyn govt. Corbyn does not have the numbers
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    kinabalu said:

    Did not catch the speech. I'm guessing it was quite well received in the hall?

    You mean you're hearing 'really positive feedback' as they say in advertising just before their ad bombs......
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Barnesian said:

    kjh said:

    Having seen that speech I think that Boris would make one of the best after dinner speeches one is likely to hear, but I suspect he maybe torn apart in a leaders debate. Having said that I can't visualise Corbyn in a leaders debate either.

    Swinson will shine in comparison.
    She's going to need some serious coaching to get rid of the verbal tics she repeats - they really get in the way of listening to what she has to say.
    Source or wishful thinking?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    kjh said:

    Having seen that speech I think that Boris would make one of the best after dinner speeches one is likely to hear, but I suspect he maybe torn apart in a leaders debate. Having said that I can't visualise Corbyn in a leaders debate either.

    I don't think there will be a leader's debate.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1179367197975691264

    Must be crap as far as EU is concerned if ERG really are on board.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    How many of those listening to Boris's speech who were previously saying they wanted to vote Brexit Party will still be doing so?

    Well, Farage still of course. But I suspect it pressed many, many of the BXP voters' buttons. If so, a 40:20:20 result will be a bloodbath for Labour.

    And leave the LibDems puffed-up, self-important non-entities.....

    Again.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    We know Bozo will say whatever he thinks he needs to, whenever. He can say what he likes about no deal; what matters is how it might turn out. Although I hold to my view that he is hoping and wanting to be stopped.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    HYUFD said:

    Very interesting header...

    I lived for 5 years in the village of Thames Ditton which falls into Raabs seat so know the area well..

    I think it will be very close next time with the LDs doing very well indeed.. I do think Raab will hold on only because the Tory vote across this area is very tribal and I think will be quite difficult to get to switch at at GE. This area also has very few naturally brexit party inclined voters which will see a below average tory to brexit bleed which should help Raab too..

    Interestingly I imagine the huge houses in Esher and Thames Ditton which have always been the backbone of the Tory vote here will be the ones switching to the LDs and the less affluent areas (though only by E&W standards) of Walton on Thames and Long Ditton will be the ones to be more loyal and save Raab

    The area around Thames Ditton , Hinchley Wood has always been more strongly
    pro Lib Dem than other parts like Oxshott and Cobham where the Tory vote is weighed.These parts which also have huge houses will stay loyal to Raab.
    Aligns with my experience in Epping, the biggest houses now are often LD, certainly locally, the semis tend to be Tory and the poorest parts and the social housing are Labour still but pro Brexit and so more Tory than they were
    It is one thing when you can dabble in a local election. If you live in a £2million house and send your kids to private school you will think twice about risking that in a General Election where the main challenger wants to abolish your kid's school and take your house from you.
    What risk is there of a Labour government if they poll 20%?
    Elections are very unpredictable things as the 2017 election showed and you can easily imagine a Lib/Lab Government.Would such a Government abolish private schools? Who knows and why take the risk?
    There won't be a Lib/Lab government whilst Corbyn is leader.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    That Boris speech is one of the best I’ve ever heard.

    It beats Churchill’s “we will fight them on the beaches”.

    Just superb.
  • Barnesian said:

    kjh said:

    Having seen that speech I think that Boris would make one of the best after dinner speeches one is likely to hear, but I suspect he maybe torn apart in a leaders debate. Having said that I can't visualise Corbyn in a leaders debate either.

    Swinson will shine in comparison.
    She's going to need some serious coaching to get rid of the verbal tics she repeats - they really get in the way of listening to what she has to say.
    Source or wishful thinking?
    Observation.

    (And i quite like her and wish her well against Corbyn)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637

    Stephen hammond of the 21 will vote against a Corbyn govt. Corbyn does not have the numbers

    He is a No Deal enabler then.

    Nobody else gets over 100

    Corbyn gets over 300 with LDs on board.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    Sleazy Broken Jester on the slide

    Sleazy Broken Tory Swinson back to 3rd place

    Most recent preference for Prime Minister:

    B. Johnson: 27% (-2)
    J. Corbyn: 16% (+3)
    J. Swinson: 14% (-)
    N. Farage: 8% (-1)

    If Swinson is a Tory, why is it that so many former Lab 2017 voters prefer her to voting Labour? Are they Tories too?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    philiph said:

    By suggesting Brexit is a cancer on this country, I think you are confusing the cause with the symptom. It is the causes of Brexit that are the cancer. As yet there seem to very few suggestions for treating the causes.

    The cause is our semi-detached relationship. The cure is to join the Euro.
    I agree the semidetached relationship is a major (but by no means the only) cause. Fully in is far preferable to revoke to where we were.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1179044908776198145?s=19

    On those numbers, it looks like there's not that many people saying they wouldn't vote/boycott the refefendum)(for the two polls that include "wouldn't vote" as an option.

    The thing is, if No Deal is the preference of 25% of leavers roughly then why would the remaining 75% boycott a vote on a different leave option like May's deal if it was a legally binding referendum? Additionally, of those 25% only a few, perhaps the ~15% BXP share, would only want No deal and nothing else. So, many of the remaining no dealers would back the leave option in a second vote anyway. Particularly if its binding, only purists would rather see A50 revoked first then try and win a new mandate for no deal, rather than just accept the unpalatable compromise of May's deal.

    Hard to see any meaningful large scale boycott of a second vote, particularly considering we have no history of that in this country. If there was a second referendum organised by some caretaker PM, on May's deal vs Remain, how would leavers on here vote?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Of course if a deal gets through, Corbyn probably wont be able to win a VONC either against him
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    So the DUP can veto and effectively 30% will over ride a majority to keep alignment .

    Why not change the rules to allow a simple vote.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    On Topic Portillo moment or Tory Swinsons Pantsdown moment
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    isam said:
    For the right money, Musk could probably do it now.
    Though the space capsule would have to be an uncertificated prototype.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    That Boris speech is one of the best I’ve ever heard.

    It beats Churchill’s “we will fight them on the beaches”.

    Just superb.


    You’re either a fine deadpan comic. Or nuts.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Tabman said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see Corbyn Labour collapse to third again with Yougov behind the LDs as Tories up 1% with an 11% lead

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1179329601006428161?s=20

    Ooh hello. How many of these before we can declare "tipping point"?
    The Lib Dems have led Labour in 9 out of 28 YouGov polls since the European Elections (and tied in 2).

    Every other poll, by all the other polling companies, has had Labour ahead of the Lib Dems over the same period.

    So, as a start, you would want to see a Lib Dem lead over Labour with at least one other polling company.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Former newsreader and Question Time host Peter Sissons has died at 77.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    kjh said:

    Having seen that speech I think that Boris would make one of the best after dinner speeches one is likely to hear, but I suspect he maybe torn apart in a leaders debate. Having said that I can't visualise Corbyn in a leaders debate either.

    I don't think there will be a leader's debate.
    Like them or loathe them, they are now a fixture.

    Bozo will be empty chaired if he doesn't show, as he was in the Tory leadership ones.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    I think it's clear the PM stole my foresighted plans regarding the space cannon.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    Barnesian said:

    kjh said:

    Having seen that speech I think that Boris would make one of the best after dinner speeches one is likely to hear, but I suspect he maybe torn apart in a leaders debate. Having said that I can't visualise Corbyn in a leaders debate either.

    Swinson will shine in comparison.
    She's going to need some serious coaching to get rid of the verbal tics she repeats - they really get in the way of listening to what she has to say.
    Source or wishful thinking?
    Priti needs some trainin' on how to modify her way of speakin'
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,427

    On Topic Portillo moment or Tory Swinsons Pantsdown moment

    Are we in store for another 4 hours of you ranting about Jo Swinson?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited October 2019
    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    Having seen that speech I think that Boris would make one of the best after dinner speeches one is likely to hear, but I suspect he maybe torn apart in a leaders debate. Having said that I can't visualise Corbyn in a leaders debate either.

    I don't think there will be a leader's debate.
    Like them or loathe them, they are now a fixture.

    Bozo will be empty chaired if he doesn't show, as he was in the Tory leadership ones.
    They are not a fixture re-Format. No consistency at all re -the Debates in 2010 - 2015 - and 2017.
    If Johnson and Corbyn both declined to appear, I doubt they would happen.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    What risk is there of a Labour government if they poll 20%?

    I wonder if we might even see a poll in the next month where they're 4th behind the Farage party.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    Having seen that speech I think that Boris would make one of the best after dinner speeches one is likely to hear, but I suspect he maybe torn apart in a leaders debate. Having said that I can't visualise Corbyn in a leaders debate either.

    I don't think there will be a leader's debate.
    Like them or loathe them, they are now a fixture.

    Bozo will be empty chaired if he doesn't show, as he was in the Tory leadership ones.
    It will be interesting to see people try to contort themselves into a position to argue that Swinson should be in any such debates, unless it is a free for all involving every other party
  • I think it's clear the PM stole my foresighted plans regarding the space cannon.

    Good poets borrow, great poets steal ...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    TOPPING said:

    It is part of Boris' charm that he was 100% aware that it was he who made the comment.
    And the entirety of his facility for long term planning.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,214
    Nigelb said:

    That Boris speech is one of the best I’ve ever heard.

    It beats Churchill’s “we will fight them on the beaches”.

    Just superb.


    You’re either a fine deadpan comic. Or nuts.
    Whether intended or not, it certainly made me chuckle.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753

    On Topic Portillo moment or Tory Swinsons Pantsdown moment

    Jo Swinson has really got to you hasn't she.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    On Topic Portillo moment or Tory Swinsons Pantsdown moment

    Are we in store for another 4 hours of you ranting about Jo Swinson?
    It would seem so. Apparently the best way to woo LDs to vote Lab is a vile tirade of Twittermob and online abuse.
  • On Topic Portillo moment or Tory Swinsons Pantsdown moment

    Are we in store for another 4 hours of you ranting about Jo Swinson?
    Let him have that, polls showing a plurality of Remainers now back the Lib Dems and with her party in the lead [amongst the opposition] today in the poll following Labour's conference bounce, it is lucky for us that Labour are splitting the anti-Brexit vote and its not all just going to the Lib Dems ;)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    It is part of Boris' charm that he was 100% aware that it was he who made the comment.
    Good Lord, how can anyone have thought that wasn't the joke?
    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1179373243851034630
This discussion has been closed.