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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dominic Raab – a contender for the next election’s “Portillo m

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    I think it's clear the PM stole my foresighted plans regarding the space cannon.

    I can only sympathise. You’d probably make a better PM, too.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    This week's Tory conference features a lineup of corporate ghouls - from arms industry lobbyists to gig economy scammers and public service privatisers - rubbing shoulders with government ministers.
    Guests at this year's Tory conference: disability assessors Atos, who've driven thousands into destitution; Raytheon, whose British-made bombs massacre in Yemen; and Deliveroo, whose entire business model is based on bogus self-employment. That's who this government represents.

    The Cayman Islands tax avoidance stall more than any of the above says it all.
  • Good leaders' speeches are those which get the delegates clapping and enthusiastic, despite telling them truths they don't want to hear: think Kinnock 1985, or Blair any time, or Cameron's 2005 speech which won him the leadership.

    Boris has simply told delegates what they want to hear. He does it amusingly. But that's all.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    Having seen that speech I think that Boris would make one of the best after dinner speeches one is likely to hear, but I suspect he maybe torn apart in a leaders debate. Having said that I can't visualise Corbyn in a leaders debate either.

    I don't think there will be a leader's debate.
    Like them or loathe them, they are now a fixture.

    Bozo will be empty chaired if he doesn't show, as he was in the Tory leadership ones.
    It will be interesting to see people try to contort themselves into a position to argue that Swinson should be in any such debates, unless it is a free for all involving every other party
    Opinion polls and Euro/local election results are factors the broadcasters are able to take into consideration.
  • How many of those listening to Boris's speech who were previously saying they wanted to vote Brexit Party will still be doing so?

    Well, Farage still of course. But I suspect it pressed many, many of the BXP voters' buttons. If so, a 40:20:20 result will be a bloodbath for Labour.

    And leave the LibDems puffed-up, self-important non-entities.....

    Again.

    Finding it really hard to see a way forward for the Brexit Party now.If Boris delivers a deal he will get huge cudos that will outweigh the criticism that the deal is crap.If he doesn't he will either become a brexit martyr or will probably be forgiven by blaming the blockers .
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136


    Elections are very unpredictable things as the 2017 election showed and you can easily imagine a Lib/Lab Government.Would such a Government abolish private schools? Who knows and why take the risk?

    No, anyone who understands anything about politics, there's no risk
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Foxy said:

    Sleazy Broken Jester on the slide

    Sleazy Broken Tory Swinson back to 3rd place

    Most recent preference for Prime Minister:

    B. Johnson: 27% (-2)
    J. Corbyn: 16% (+3)
    J. Swinson: 14% (-)
    N. Farage: 8% (-1)

    If Swinson is a Tory, why is it that so many former Lab 2017 voters prefer her to voting Labour? Are they Tories too?
    Anyone who doesn't worship the Dear Leader is a Tory.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Just this minute taken a call from Tulip Sadiq's office. Chap called Duncan who said they are expecting an election this year and would I be prepared to do some canvassing? I said yes - you just try and stop me.

    Something to bear in mind when the odds on Hampstead & Kilburn become available.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    Having seen that speech I think that Boris would make one of the best after dinner speeches one is likely to hear, but I suspect he maybe torn apart in a leaders debate. Having said that I can't visualise Corbyn in a leaders debate either.

    I don't think there will be a leader's debate.
    Like them or loathe them, they are now a fixture.

    Bozo will be empty chaired if he doesn't show, as he was in the Tory leadership ones.
    It will be interesting to see people try to contort themselves into a position to argue that Swinson should be in any such debates, unless it is a free for all involving every other party
    Opinion polls and Euro/local election results are factors the broadcasters are able to take into consideration.
    The main factor is performance at the two previous General Elections.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    Hey Brexiteers. Here’s Parliament doing its job.

    https://twitter.com/neill_bob/status/1179373135705133058?s=21
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Hey Brexiteers. Here’s Parliament doing its job.

    https://twitter.com/neill_bob/status/1179373135705133058?s=21

    Tory mp yeah, what are the opposition up to?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    That Boris speech is one of the best I’ve ever heard.

    It beats Churchill’s “we will fight them on the beaches”.

    Just superb.

    You're not normally one for sarcasm.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    philiph said:

    philiph said:

    By suggesting Brexit is a cancer on this country, I think you are confusing the cause with the symptom. It is the causes of Brexit that are the cancer. As yet there seem to very few suggestions for treating the causes.

    The cause is our semi-detached relationship. The cure is to join the Euro.
    I agree the semidetached relationship is a major (but by no means the only) cause. Fully in is far preferable to revoke to where we were.
    Being half in gives you the same problems as being fully in. Better a clean withdrawal.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Scott_P said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    It is part of Boris' charm that he was 100% aware that it was he who made the comment.
    Good Lord, how can anyone have thought that wasn't the joke?
    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1179373243851034630
    Nice try Matty boy, but you cant get out of it that easy! Just fess up, it's not illegal to be mistaken
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    edited October 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Guardian not impressed with Tory leader speech shocker.

    next up - Daily Mail not impressed with Corbyn.

    CNN not impressed with Trump.

    Turkey's not impressed with impending Christmas.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    It’s game over for the Brexit Party if a deal passes .

    Farage can scream betrayal but the symbolism of the UK leaving can’t be underestimated.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. B, probably?!

    You wound me, sir.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    Hey Brexiteers. Here’s Parliament doing its job.

    https://twitter.com/neill_bob/status/1179373135705133058?s=21

    Tory mp yeah, what are the opposition up to?
    What’s has that got to do with anything? He couldn’t be doing it if Parliament was prorogued.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    edited October 2019
    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    Having seen that speech I think that Boris would make one of the best after dinner speeches one is likely to hear, but I suspect he maybe torn apart in a leaders debate. Having said that I can't visualise Corbyn in a leaders debate either.

    I don't think there will be a leader's debate.
    Like them or loathe them, they are now a fixture.

    Bozo will be empty chaired if he doesn't show, as he was in the Tory leadership ones.
    It will be interesting to see people try to contort themselves into a position to argue that Swinson should be in any such debates, unless it is a free for all involving every other party
    Opinion polls and Euro/local election results are factors the broadcasters are able to take into consideration.
    They weren't when UKIP were polling in the 20s in 2015. But I understand the progressive mantra of the rules being different for "good" people

  • Elections are very unpredictable things as the 2017 election showed and you can easily imagine a Lib/Lab Government.Would such a Government abolish private schools? Who knows and why take the risk?

    No, anyone who understands anything about politics, there's no risk
    You have a crystal ball telling you what is in the coalition government manifesto do you? In any event you only need to raise the prospect on the doorstep and that will be enough.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    nico67 said:

    It’s game over for the Brexit Party if a deal passes .

    Farage can scream betrayal but the symbolism of the UK leaving can’t be underestimated.

    Farage is already looking like yesterdays turd
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    kinabalu said:

    Did not catch the speech. I'm guessing it was quite well received in the hall?

    Yes, it does seem that way. The only slightly off-kilter moment appears to have been this.

    Johnson claims that the Tories, and the British, are pro-European.

    It cannot be stressed too much that this is not an anti-European party and it is not an anti-European country.

    We love Europe. We are European. At least, “I love Europe,” Johnson says.

    After what seems like a moment’s hesitation, the audience applaud.

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Hey Brexiteers. Here’s Parliament doing its job.

    https://twitter.com/neill_bob/status/1179373135705133058?s=21

    Tory mp yeah, what are the opposition up to?
    What’s has that got to do with anything? He couldn’t be doing it if Parliament was prorogued.
    It's the opposition that cried coup and have done nothing with the time given back to them
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    This week's Tory conference features a lineup of corporate ghouls - from arms industry lobbyists to gig economy scammers and public service privatisers - rubbing shoulders with government ministers.
    Guests at this year's Tory conference: disability assessors Atos, who've driven thousands into destitution; Raytheon, whose British-made bombs massacre in Yemen; and Deliveroo, whose entire business model is based on bogus self-employment. That's who this government represents.

    The Cayman Islands tax avoidance stall more than any of the above says it all.

    Were Ajnad al-Khilafah at the Labour Party conference?
  • Tabman said:

    Foxy said:

    Sleazy Broken Jester on the slide

    Sleazy Broken Tory Swinson back to 3rd place

    Most recent preference for Prime Minister:

    B. Johnson: 27% (-2)
    J. Corbyn: 16% (+3)
    J. Swinson: 14% (-)
    N. Farage: 8% (-1)

    If Swinson is a Tory, why is it that so many former Lab 2017 voters prefer her to voting Labour? Are they Tories too?
    Anyone who doesn't worship the Dear Leader is a Tory.
    I get confused whether it is Boris or Corbyn who is the Dear Leader nowadays.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    nico67 said:

    It’s game over for the Brexit Party if a deal passes .

    Farage can scream betrayal but the symbolism of the UK leaving can’t be underestimated.

    The symbolism of having left but still being constrained by EU rules can't be underestimated. The whole thing will have been for nothing, and it will do nothing to end the polarisation.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited October 2019
    Good for Rachel Sylvester! She thinks Johnson is screwed and his bravado is on the point of crumbling.

    I paraphrase but that's what she was saying
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    It’s game over for the Brexit Party if a deal passes .

    Farage can scream betrayal but the symbolism of the UK leaving can’t be underestimated.

    Farage is already looking like yesterdays turd
    One benefit of Brexit then! Farage is already going into betrayal mode but the public will tune out once Brexit happens .
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    nico67 said:

    It’s game over for the Brexit Party if a deal passes .

    Farage can scream betrayal but the symbolism of the UK leaving can’t be underestimated.

    Farage is already looking like yesterdays turd
    The effect of a new turd in town?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    nico67 said:

    It’s game over for the Brexit Party if a deal passes .

    Farage can scream betrayal but the symbolism of the UK leaving can’t be underestimated.

    The symbolism of having left but still being constrained by EU rules can't be underestimated. The whole thing will have been for nothing, and it will do nothing to end the polarisation.
    The symbolisation of having voted for something and it being done rather than ignored is what seems to be underestimated
  • Good leaders' speeches are those which get the delegates clapping and enthusiastic, despite telling them truths they don't want to hear: think Kinnock 1985, or Blair any time, or Cameron's 2005 speech which won him the leadership.

    Boris has simply told delegates what they want to hear. He does it amusingly. But that's all.

    Sorry but that is garbage. Blair's speeches weren't consistently telling delegates what they don't want to hear as for the other examples . . .

    Kinnock 1985 and Cameron 2005 were both in opposition and not long from major defeats, years before a new election was due, where the opposition needed a rebuilding process to get it ready for opposition let alone governance.

    This isn't a start of a rebuild speech, this is a potential pre-General Election speech and needs to be viewed in that context. So for Kinnock the relevant comparison would be eg the Sheffield Rally and I think today was much smarter than that!
  • timpletimple Posts: 117
    Scott_P said:

    philiph said:

    Once it is done there is a period of calm, adjustment and realignment

    If we crash out with No Deal, there is no period of calm

    There is panic, confusion, disorder and despair. And that's just the cabinet...
    Done means agreeing the future relationship. That is years away, unless we veer back to joining the SM.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s game over for the Brexit Party if a deal passes .

    Farage can scream betrayal but the symbolism of the UK leaving can’t be underestimated.

    The symbolism of having left but still being constrained by EU rules can't be underestimated. The whole thing will have been for nothing, and it will do nothing to end the polarisation.
    The symbolisation of having voted for something and it being done rather than ignored is what seems to be underestimated
    You voted to end free movement. If there's a deal, free movement will continue. It will be a complete slap in the face for you.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited October 2019
    I thought Boris's speech was decent.

    He's good at the wordsmithy, funny stuff and it was at least positive and optimistic. He can only really look a week ahead at a time given Brexit and the parliament mission to oust him, so it did an adequate holding job. It keeps the party happy and on side and offers some self-belief that a Brexit deal isn't surmountable.

    Certainly A LOT more listenable than Theresa May's miserable, turgid efforts.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669


    Elections are very unpredictable things as the 2017 election showed and you can easily imagine a Lib/Lab Government.Would such a Government abolish private schools? Who knows and why take the risk?

    No, anyone who understands anything about politics, there's no risk
    You have a crystal ball telling you what is in the coalition government manifesto do you? In any event you only need to raise the prospect on the doorstep and that will be enough.
    It's unlikely that the LibDems would want another coalition for ovious reasons. Any C&S arrangement would mean Labour's more extreme policies being voted down.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s game over for the Brexit Party if a deal passes .

    Farage can scream betrayal but the symbolism of the UK leaving can’t be underestimated.

    The symbolism of having left but still being constrained by EU rules can't be underestimated. The whole thing will have been for nothing, and it will do nothing to end the polarisation.
    The symbolisation of having voted for something and it being done rather than ignored is what seems to be underestimated
    You voted to end free movement. If there's a deal, free movement will continue. It will be a complete slap in the face for you.
    "If there's a deal, free movement will continue"

    Really?

    May's agreement with the EU didn't mean free movement continued
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    TOPPING said:

    It is part of Boris' charm that he was 100% aware that it was he who made the comment.

    Yes. Charming people can turn what in others would be something to be sheepish about - e.g. a track record of lying or talking utter bollox - into some sort of perverse selling point.

    This is why charm, if combined with a lack of scruple, can be very dangerous.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    isam said:

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s game over for the Brexit Party if a deal passes .

    Farage can scream betrayal but the symbolism of the UK leaving can’t be underestimated.

    The symbolism of having left but still being constrained by EU rules can't be underestimated. The whole thing will have been for nothing, and it will do nothing to end the polarisation.
    The symbolisation of having voted for something and it being done rather than ignored is what seems to be underestimated
    You voted to end free movement. If there's a deal, free movement will continue. It will be a complete slap in the face for you.
    "If there's a deal, free movement will continue"

    Really?

    May's agreement with the EU didn't mean free movement continued
    Yes it did. Nothing changed during an extensible transition and nothing was finalised about the future relationship.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    It is part of Boris' charm that he was 100% aware that it was he who made the comment.
    Good Lord, how can anyone have thought that wasn't the joke?
    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1179373243851034630
    Nice try Matty boy, but you cant get out of it that easy! Just fess up, it's not illegal to be mistaken
    ... but it's stupid to be mistaken over such an important issue when it's your job not to be mistaken.
  • isam said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s game over for the Brexit Party if a deal passes .

    Farage can scream betrayal but the symbolism of the UK leaving can’t be underestimated.

    The symbolism of having left but still being constrained by EU rules can't be underestimated. The whole thing will have been for nothing, and it will do nothing to end the polarisation.
    The symbolisation of having voted for something and it being done rather than ignored is what seems to be underestimated
    You voted to end free movement. If there's a deal, free movement will continue. It will be a complete slap in the face for you.
    Come again?

    Free movement ending has already been accepted by the EU in May's deal, why would it continue under a Boris deal?
  • isam said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s game over for the Brexit Party if a deal passes .

    Farage can scream betrayal but the symbolism of the UK leaving can’t be underestimated.

    The symbolism of having left but still being constrained by EU rules can't be underestimated. The whole thing will have been for nothing, and it will do nothing to end the polarisation.
    The symbolisation of having voted for something and it being done rather than ignored is what seems to be underestimated
    If it looks ok on freedom of movement being controlled,external trade deals happening ,fishing quotas improved etc most people are not going to get too excited about other constraints I fancy.They are just going to be delighted we have finally left.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Tabman said:

    philiph said:

    philiph said:

    By suggesting Brexit is a cancer on this country, I think you are confusing the cause with the symptom. It is the causes of Brexit that are the cancer. As yet there seem to very few suggestions for treating the causes.

    The cause is our semi-detached relationship. The cure is to join the Euro.
    I agree the semidetached relationship is a major (but by no means the only) cause. Fully in is far preferable to revoke to where we were.
    Being half in gives you the same problems as being fully in. Better a clean withdrawal.
    Half in and all in give different problems. We know half in is a fractious position, all in would, I believe, be better.

    Our two best options are all in or all out. All options are in some way suboptimal.
  • Via Ian King Live-

    Flutter entertainment which owns bookmakers Paddy Power and Betfair has announced a merger with Canada's Star Group
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    isam said:

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s game over for the Brexit Party if a deal passes .

    Farage can scream betrayal but the symbolism of the UK leaving can’t be underestimated.

    The symbolism of having left but still being constrained by EU rules can't be underestimated. The whole thing will have been for nothing, and it will do nothing to end the polarisation.
    The symbolisation of having voted for something and it being done rather than ignored is what seems to be underestimated
    You voted to end free movement. If there's a deal, free movement will continue. It will be a complete slap in the face for you.
    "If there's a deal, free movement will continue"

    Really?

    May's agreement with the EU didn't mean free movement continued
    Yes it did. Nothing changed during an extensible transition and nothing was finalised about the future relationship.
    Blimey, the backstop was the least of our worries
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s game over for the Brexit Party if a deal passes .

    Farage can scream betrayal but the symbolism of the UK leaving can’t be underestimated.

    The symbolism of having left but still being constrained by EU rules can't be underestimated. The whole thing will have been for nothing, and it will do nothing to end the polarisation.
    The symbolisation of having voted for something and it being done rather than ignored is what seems to be underestimated
    You voted to end free movement. If there's a deal, free movement will continue. It will be a complete slap in the face for you.
    Come again?

    Free movement ending has already been accepted by the EU in May's deal, why would it continue under a Boris deal?
    The transition is a total standstill. Free movement does not end under it. As for the future relationship, that depends on trade offs that have yet to be made. Johnson has now accepted the principle of a standstill transition, having previously described it as an unacceptable 'vassal state' status.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited October 2019
    It will be interesting to see what the parties will have in their election manifestos if Brexit happens.

    I think rejoin would be a bad mistake as I don’t think the public including some Remainers like myself would be in the mood to have years more acrimony and division .

    I’d vote for the party that promises the closest EU links but not that interested in voting to rejoin.

    At some point in the future perhaps that will happen , much depends on how Brexit goes.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s game over for the Brexit Party if a deal passes .

    Farage can scream betrayal but the symbolism of the UK leaving can’t be underestimated.

    The symbolism of having left but still being constrained by EU rules can't be underestimated. The whole thing will have been for nothing, and it will do nothing to end the polarisation.
    The symbolisation of having voted for something and it being done rather than ignored is what seems to be underestimated
    You voted to end free movement. If there's a deal, free movement will continue. It will be a complete slap in the face for you.
    Come again?

    Free movement ending has already been accepted by the EU in May's deal, why would it continue under a Boris deal?
    The transition is a total standstill. Free movement does not end under it. As for the future relationship, that depends on trade offs that have yet to be made. Johnson has now accepted the principle of a standstill transition, having previously described it as an unacceptable 'vassal state' status.
    Better to be out with the same conditions, than in, as I have said all along.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    This week's Tory conference features a lineup of corporate ghouls - from arms industry lobbyists to gig economy scammers and public service privatisers - rubbing shoulders with government ministers.
    Guests at this year's Tory conference: disability assessors Atos, who've driven thousands into destitution; Raytheon, whose British-made bombs massacre in Yemen; and Deliveroo, whose entire business model is based on bogus self-employment. That's who this government represents.

    The Cayman Islands tax avoidance stall more than any of the above says it all.

    Heart of the matter.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613

    HYUFD said:

    Very interesting header...

    I lived for 5 years in the village of Thames Ditton which falls into Raabs seat so know the area well..

    I think it will be very close next time with the LDs doing very well indeed.. I do think Raab will hold on only because the Tory vote across this area is very tribal and I think will be quite difficult to get to switch at at GE. This area also has very few naturally brexit party inclined voters which will see a below average tory to brexit bleed which should help Raab too..

    Interestingly I imagine the huge houses in Esher and Thames Ditton which have always been the backbone of the Tory vote here will be the ones switching to the LDs and the less affluent areas (though only by E&W standards) of Walton on Thames and Long Ditton will be the ones to be more loyal and save Raab

    The area around Thames Ditton , Hinchley Wood has always been more strongly
    pro Lib Dem than other parts like Oxshott and Cobham where the Tory vote is weighed.These parts which also have huge houses will stay loyal to Raab.
    Aligns with my experience in Epping, the biggest houses now are often LD, certainly locally, the semis tend to be Tory and the poorest parts and the social housing are Labour still but pro Brexit and so more Tory than they were
    It is one thing when you can dabble in a local election. If you live in a £2million house and send your kids to private school you will think twice about risking that in a General Election where the main challenger wants to abolish your kid's school and take your house from you.
    That assumes LAB will be the main challenger
    Or it assumes that the LibDem candidate is less than categorical that they won't support a Corbyn govt.
    What penetration of the adult population does twitter have in the UK now ?

    I know it must be close to 100% of journalists, but how much does this affect everyone else ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s game over for the Brexit Party if a deal passes .

    Farage can scream betrayal but the symbolism of the UK leaving can’t be underestimated.

    The symbolism of having left but still being constrained by EU rules can't be underestimated. The whole thing will have been for nothing, and it will do nothing to end the polarisation.
    The symbolisation of having voted for something and it being done rather than ignored is what seems to be underestimated
    If it looks ok on freedom of movement being controlled,external trade deals happening ,fishing quotas improved etc most people are not going to get too excited about other constraints I fancy.They are just going to be delighted we have finally left.
    None of that will happen though. We will still be in the EU in all but name until the transition ends.
  • Good leaders' speeches are those which get the delegates clapping and enthusiastic, despite telling them truths they don't want to hear: think Kinnock 1985, or Blair any time, or Cameron's 2005 speech which won him the leadership.

    Boris has simply told delegates what they want to hear. He does it amusingly. But that's all.

    Sorry but that is garbage. Blair's speeches weren't consistently telling delegates what they don't want to hear as for the other examples . . .

    Kinnock 1985 and Cameron 2005 were both in opposition and not long from major defeats, years before a new election was due, where the opposition needed a rebuilding process to get it ready for opposition let alone governance.

    This isn't a start of a rebuild speech, this is a potential pre-General Election speech and needs to be viewed in that context. So for Kinnock the relevant comparison would be eg the Sheffield Rally and I think today was much smarter than that!
    You have a point that it depends on the context, but I'd argue that this is a rebuild moment (or should be). The party has mislaid a majority, has sacked 21 MPs including multiple distinguished ex-Cabinet ministers, is hamstrung in parliament, faces a highly polarised population, and is still hunting unicorns rather than addressing any of this.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    Tory policies announced so far at #CPC2019
    Lie 1
    Lie 2
    Lie 3
    Lie 4
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Tory policies announced so far at #CPC2019
    Lie 1
    Lie 2
    Lie 3
    Lie 4

    Do you get paid for this?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2019

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s game over for the Brexit Party if a deal passes .

    Farage can scream betrayal but the symbolism of the UK leaving can’t be underestimated.

    The symbolism of having left but still being constrained by EU rules can't be underestimated. The whole thing will have been for nothing, and it will do nothing to end the polarisation.
    The symbolisation of having voted for something and it being done rather than ignored is what seems to be underestimated
    You voted to end free movement. If there's a deal, free movement will continue. It will be a complete slap in the face for you.
    Come again?

    Free movement ending has already been accepted by the EU in May's deal, why would it continue under a Boris deal?
    The transition is a total standstill. Free movement does not end under it. As for the future relationship, that depends on trade offs that have yet to be made. Johnson has now accepted the principle of a standstill transition, having previously described it as an unacceptable 'vassal state' status.
    Hence transition. That's not the end point. I'm cool with that and I think anyone sensible would be too.

    Boris didn't call a transition vassal status AFAIK. The backstop with no exit was.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    RIP Peter Sissons
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    edited October 2019

    Scott_P said:
    Guardian not impressed with Tory leader speech shocker.

    next up - Daily Mail not impressed with Corbyn.

    CNN not impressed with Trump.

    Turkey's not impressed with impending Christmas.
    "Verdict from Twitter commentariat "

    christ.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819

    Stephen hammond of the 21 will vote against a Corbyn govt. Corbyn does not have the numbers

    He is a No Deal enabler then.

    Nobody else gets over 100

    Corbyn gets over 300 with LDs on board.
    But what if Corbyn is voted down and then someone like Margaret Beckett gets put forward? Would Labour not back her considering Corbyns chance is already over? If Labour didn't, that would make them a no deal enabling party as well.

    Swinson can veto Corbyn because he will be the first person put forward, she then kicks the ball over to him, and if he vetoes beckett\Clarke etc, both he and the LDs could be accused of no deal enabling.
  • Tory policies announced so far at #CPC2019
    Lie 1
    Lie 2
    Lie 3
    Lie 4

    I've fairly sure the tazors will be real enough. I'll be zapped in no time.
  • Tory policies announced so far at #CPC2019
    Lie 1
    Lie 2
    Lie 3
    Lie 4

    Do you get paid for this?
    I was hoping he'd get to 6 myself.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited October 2019
    Hang on, has Dominic Raab at PMQs let slip a hint of the most explosive political story of the year and biggest comeback in history?

    Abbott later said: “Whether it’s women members in this house, women claiming benefits, women’s reproductive rights in Northern Ireland, and the failure to support women workers at Thomas Cook, isn’t this a government letting women down?”

    Raab replied: “On this side of the house we’re proud to be on our second female prime minister.

  • Elections are very unpredictable things as the 2017 election showed and you can easily imagine a Lib/Lab Government.Would such a Government abolish private schools? Who knows and why take the risk?

    No, anyone who understands anything about politics, there's no risk
    You have a crystal ball telling you what is in the coalition government manifesto do you? In any event you only need to raise the prospect on the doorstep and that will be enough.
    It's unlikely that the LibDems would want another coalition for ovious reasons. Any C&S arrangement would mean Labour's more extreme policies being voted down.
    One thing that all these shenanigans in Parliament with MPs defecting,cross party collusion,talk of GNUs etc has made clear is that you can rule absolutely nothing out any more.How strong the LDs bargaining position would be would depend on the Mp numbers and we have seen before over student fees that they are prepared to sell out their principles for government. In any event I am not sure which of Labour's policies they regard as extreme.
  • Good leaders' speeches are those which get the delegates clapping and enthusiastic, despite telling them truths they don't want to hear: think Kinnock 1985, or Blair any time, or Cameron's 2005 speech which won him the leadership.

    Boris has simply told delegates what they want to hear. He does it amusingly. But that's all.

    Sorry but that is garbage. Blair's speeches weren't consistently telling delegates what they don't want to hear as for the other examples . . .

    Kinnock 1985 and Cameron 2005 were both in opposition and not long from major defeats, years before a new election was due, where the opposition needed a rebuilding process to get it ready for opposition let alone governance.

    This isn't a start of a rebuild speech, this is a potential pre-General Election speech and needs to be viewed in that context. So for Kinnock the relevant comparison would be eg the Sheffield Rally and I think today was much smarter than that!
    You have a point that it depends on the context, but I'd argue that this is a rebuild moment (or should be). The party has mislaid a majority, has sacked 21 MPs including multiple distinguished ex-Cabinet ministers, is hamstrung in parliament, faces a highly polarised population, and is still hunting unicorns rather than addressing any of this.
    The party hasn't mislaid a majority it didn't have one. Simply pretending there's a majority then letting everyone ignore the whip and do what they want isn't smart management it is living in denial.

    The party isn't hunting unicorns it is hunting voters. Get a real majority at an election and all your other concerns are dealt with.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s game over for the Brexit Party if a deal passes .

    Farage can scream betrayal but the symbolism of the UK leaving can’t be underestimated.

    The symbolism of having left but still being constrained by EU rules can't be underestimated. The whole thing will have been for nothing, and it will do nothing to end the polarisation.
    The symbolisation of having voted for something and it being done rather than ignored is what seems to be underestimated
    You voted to end free movement. If there's a deal, free movement will continue. It will be a complete slap in the face for you.
    Come again?

    Free movement ending has already been accepted by the EU in May's deal, why would it continue under a Boris deal?
    The transition is a total standstill. Free movement does not end under it. As for the future relationship, that depends on trade offs that have yet to be made. Johnson has now accepted the principle of a standstill transition, having previously described it as an unacceptable 'vassal state' status.
    Hence transition. That's not the end point. I'm cool with that and I think anyone sensible would be too.

    Boris didn't call a transition vassal status AFAIK. The backstop with no exit was.
    It was certainly described that way by Rees-Mogg. Johnson was perhaps more ambiguous.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/24/david-davis-rejects-vassal-state-claim-over-brexit-transition
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Has anyone here said anything new or surprising in the last 3 weeks? Thanks
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,300
    Hang on Boz - if this is a "Get Brexit Done" fund, and we can't have an election (for which the funds will be used) before Oct 31, then isn't this quite an admission?

    https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/1179361568536109056?s=20
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited October 2019

    Good leaders' speeches are those which get the delegates clapping and enthusiastic, despite telling them truths they don't want to hear: think Kinnock 1985, or Blair any time, or Cameron's 2005 speech which won him the leadership.

    Boris has simply told delegates what they want to hear. He does it amusingly. But that's all.

    Sorry but that is garbage. Blair's speeches weren't consistently telling delegates what they don't want to hear as for the other examples . . .

    Kinnock 1985 and Cameron 2005 were both in opposition and not long from major defeats, years before a new election was due, where the opposition needed a rebuilding process to get it ready for opposition let alone governance.

    This isn't a start of a rebuild speech, this is a potential pre-General Election speech and needs to be viewed in that context. So for Kinnock the relevant comparison would be eg the Sheffield Rally and I think today was much smarter than that!
    You have a point that it depends on the context, but I'd argue that this is a rebuild moment (or should be). The party has mislaid a majority, has sacked 21 MPs including multiple distinguished ex-Cabinet ministers, is hamstrung in parliament, faces a highly polarised population, and is still hunting unicorns rather than addressing any of this.
    The party hasn't mislaid a majority it didn't have one. Simply pretending there's a majority then letting everyone ignore the whip and do what they want isn't smart management it is living in denial.

    The party isn't hunting unicorns it is hunting voters. Get a real majority at an election and all your other concerns are dealt with.
    Bad jokes and telling a self-selected set of delegates simplistic nonsense that they want to hear, having driven out the sensible voices, won't necessarily win back the majority the party had less than three years ago.
  • How many of those listening to Boris's speech who were previously saying they wanted to vote Brexit Party will still be doing so?

    Well, Farage still of course. But I suspect it pressed many, many of the BXP voters' buttons. If so, a 40:20:20 result will be a bloodbath for Labour.

    And leave the LibDems puffed-up, self-important non-entities.....

    Again.

    Finding it really hard to see a way forward for the Brexit Party now.If Boris delivers a deal he will get huge cudos that will outweigh the criticism that the deal is crap.If he doesn't he will either become a brexit martyr or will probably be forgiven by blaming the blockers .

    There is no deal that Johnson can deliver that the ERG can possibly support, let alone the BXP, because it willl have had to have been agreed by the EU first. And any deal the EU agrees to is, by definition, not one either the ERG or BXP will back.

  • Hang on Boz - if this is a "Get Brexit Done" fund, and we can't have an election (for which the funds will be used) before Oct 31, then isn't this quite an admission?

    https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/1179361568536109056?s=20

    You are assuming 1) honesty 2) things being internally consistent.

    Both are at odds with the Brexiteer religion which demands things are true and false at the same time.
  • isam said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s game over for the Brexit Party if a deal passes .

    Farage can scream betrayal but the symbolism of the UK leaving can’t be underestimated.

    The symbolism of having left but still being constrained by EU rules can't be underestimated. The whole thing will have been for nothing, and it will do nothing to end the polarisation.
    The symbolisation of having voted for something and it being done rather than ignored is what seems to be underestimated
    If it looks ok on freedom of movement being controlled,external trade deals happening ,fishing quotas improved etc most people are not going to get too excited about other constraints I fancy.They are just going to be delighted we have finally left.
    None of that will happen though. We will still be in the EU in all but name until the transition ends.
    If it is December 2020 people will live with it.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723

    Stephen hammond of the 21 will vote against a Corbyn govt. Corbyn does not have the numbers

    He is a No Deal enabler then.

    Nobody else gets over 100

    Corbyn gets over 300 with LDs on board.
    But what if Corbyn is voted down and then someone like Margaret Beckett gets put forward? Would Labour not back her considering Corbyns chance is already over? If Labour didn't, that would make them a no deal enabling party as well.

    Swinson can veto Corbyn because he will be the first person put forward, she then kicks the ball over to him, and if he vetoes beckett\Clarke etc, both he and the LDs could be accused of no deal enabling.
    55 Lab MPs are leavers and will not back Beckett Clarke or anyone who is not HM LOTO
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    matt said:

    Has anyone here said anything new or surprising in the last 3 weeks? Thanks

    There's a page worth of comments in that period from someone called matt here - https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/profile/comments/matt

    I'm sure you'll find something worth reading.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    Scott_P said:
    "Shallow" is an overly-generous way to describe the twitter commentariat.

    Equally valid to anybody who retweets their opinions.
  • How many of those listening to Boris's speech who were previously saying they wanted to vote Brexit Party will still be doing so?

    Well, Farage still of course. But I suspect it pressed many, many of the BXP voters' buttons. If so, a 40:20:20 result will be a bloodbath for Labour.

    And leave the LibDems puffed-up, self-important non-entities.....

    Again.

    Finding it really hard to see a way forward for the Brexit Party now.If Boris delivers a deal he will get huge cudos that will outweigh the criticism that the deal is crap.If he doesn't he will either become a brexit martyr or will probably be forgiven by blaming the blockers .

    There is no deal that Johnson can deliver that the ERG can possibly support, let alone the BXP, because it willl have had to have been agreed by the EU first. And any deal the EU agrees to is, by definition, not one either the ERG or BXP will back.

    Obviously the BXP won't back it.I think Baker and Francois ( which presumably brings most of the rest of the ERG) would also seem to be saying they will today if it reflects what Boris seems to be proposing.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Stephen hammond of the 21 will vote against a Corbyn govt. Corbyn does not have the numbers

    He is a No Deal enabler then.

    Nobody else gets over 100

    Corbyn gets over 300 with LDs on board.
    But what if Corbyn is voted down and then someone like Margaret Beckett gets put forward? Would Labour not back her considering Corbyns chance is already over? If Labour didn't, that would make them a no deal enabling party as well.

    Swinson can veto Corbyn because he will be the first person put forward, she then kicks the ball over to him, and if he vetoes beckett\Clarke etc, both he and the LDs could be accused of no deal enabling.
    55 Lab MPs are leavers and will not back Beckett Clarke or anyone who is not HM LOTO
    And the rest of the House of Commons, including former Labour MP's, who are relatively sane and with functioning brain cells won't support the bit-thick Communist.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960

    Hang on Boz - if this is a "Get Brexit Done" fund, and we can't have an election (for which the funds will be used) before Oct 31, then isn't this quite an admission?

    https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/1179361568536109056?s=20

    You are assuming 1) honesty 2) things being internally consistent.

    Both are at odds with the Brexiteer religion which demands things are true and false at the same time.
    There is a begging e-mail every couple of days, on some pretext or another.
  • Good leaders' speeches are those which get the delegates clapping and enthusiastic, despite telling them truths they don't want to hear: think Kinnock 1985, or Blair any time, or Cameron's 2005 speech which won him the leadership.

    Boris has simply told delegates what they want to hear. He does it amusingly. But that's all.

    Sorry but that is garbage. Blair's speeches weren't consistently telling delegates what they don't want to hear as for the other examples . . .

    Kinnock 1985 and Cameron 2005 were both in opposition and not long from major defeats, years before a new election was due, where the opposition needed a rebuilding process to get it ready for opposition let alone governance.

    This isn't a start of a rebuild speech, this is a potential pre-General Election speech and needs to be viewed in that context. So for Kinnock the relevant comparison would be eg the Sheffield Rally and I think today was much smarter than that!
    You have a point that it depends on the context, but I'd argue that this is a rebuild moment (or should be). The party has mislaid a majority, has sacked 21 MPs including multiple distinguished ex-Cabinet ministers, is hamstrung in parliament, faces a highly polarised population, and is still hunting unicorns rather than addressing any of this.
    The party hasn't mislaid a majority it didn't have one. Simply pretending there's a majority then letting everyone ignore the whip and do what they want isn't smart management it is living in denial.

    The party isn't hunting unicorns it is hunting voters. Get a real majority at an election and all your other concerns are dealt with.
    Bad jokes and telling a self-selected set of delegates simplistic nonsense that they want to hear, having driven out the sensible voices, won't necessarily win back the majority the party had less than three years ago.

    As long as there is Corbyn the Tories will win most seats and have a very decent chance to get a majority. The coud well do it with a vote share close to the 1997 one.

  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Lots of momentum supports with nothing better to do they this
  • Stephen hammond of the 21 will vote against a Corbyn govt. Corbyn does not have the numbers

    He is a No Deal enabler then.

    Nobody else gets over 100

    Corbyn gets over 300 with LDs on board.
    But what if Corbyn is voted down and then someone like Margaret Beckett gets put forward? Would Labour not back her considering Corbyns chance is already over? If Labour didn't, that would make them a no deal enabling party as well.

    Swinson can veto Corbyn because he will be the first person put forward, she then kicks the ball over to him, and if he vetoes beckett\Clarke etc, both he and the LDs could be accused of no deal enabling.
    55 Lab MPs are leavers and will not back Beckett Clarke or anyone who is not HM LOTO
    Please can we not have another round of number crunching like we had all afternoon yesterday. I don't think Corbyn has or ever will have the numbers but let's be honest we don't really know as there are emotions at play here so could go either way and people could suprise us..

  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,300


    Elections are very unpredictable things as the 2017 election showed and you can easily imagine a Lib/Lab Government.Would such a Government abolish private schools? Who knows and why take the risk?

    No, anyone who understands anything about politics, there's no risk
    You have a crystal ball telling you what is in the coalition government manifesto do you? In any event you only need to raise the prospect on the doorstep and that will be enough.
    It's unlikely that the LibDems would want another coalition for ovious reasons. Any C&S arrangement would mean Labour's more extreme policies being voted down.
    One thing that all these shenanigans in Parliament with MPs defecting,cross party collusion,talk of GNUs etc has made clear is that you can rule absolutely nothing out any more.How strong the LDs bargaining position would be would depend on the Mp numbers and we have seen before over student fees that they are prepared to sell out their principles for government. In any event I am not sure which of Labour's policies they regard as extreme.
    I still find the "Lib Dem sell-out" meme a bit unthinking (apparently unusually for someone not on their frontbench team :smiley: ).

    They held about one in seven of the seats in a coalition. Therefore they were going to get little more than one in seven of the sweeties - and be expected to unwrap the other six and pop them in Daddy Cameron's mouth.

    I don't see Cameron being accused of "selling out Tory principles" by legalising gay marriage or holding a referendum on changing the FPTP voting system (though I concede he might if he lost that one too!)

    Given what's gone since, I'd say there's prima facie evidence of the LibDems being quite a moderating influence on the 2010 Tory administration. And what's the point of even existing as a minor party if you don't want to hold power in some form.

    So. I think their coolness on a coalition will ease somewhat at 10.05pm on election night if the exit poll says the right things. Mind you.. I still think there's an interesting space to be explored between "won't do a deal with Corbyn or Johnson" (which they've said) and "won't do a deal with Lab or Con" (which I don't think they have).
  • How many of those listening to Boris's speech who were previously saying they wanted to vote Brexit Party will still be doing so?

    Well, Farage still of course. But I suspect it pressed many, many of the BXP voters' buttons. If so, a 40:20:20 result will be a bloodbath for Labour.

    And leave the LibDems puffed-up, self-important non-entities.....

    Again.

    Finding it really hard to see a way forward for the Brexit Party now.If Boris delivers a deal he will get huge cudos that will outweigh the criticism that the deal is crap.If he doesn't he will either become a brexit martyr or will probably be forgiven by blaming the blockers .

    There is no deal that Johnson can deliver that the ERG can possibly support, let alone the BXP, because it willl have had to have been agreed by the EU first. And any deal the EU agrees to is, by definition, not one either the ERG or BXP will back.

    Obviously the BXP won't back it.I think Baker and Francois ( which presumably brings most of the rest of the ERG) would also seem to be saying they will today if it reflects what Boris seems to be proposing.

    Yep, but that is not a deal. It is a proposal that everyone knows the EU will not accept. It's about being able to blame them for No Deal.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    I think we would all benefit from the following clarification of terms -

    DEAL:
    The Future Relationship. To be negotiated over a period of several years which will likely span multiple general elections and potentially some big changes in political climate both here and in Brussels. Until these negotiations are concluded it is not possible to say whether we have ended up with a 'soft' or a 'hard' Brexit.

    BREXIT:
    The event - which can be chaotic or orderly - that must occur in order to start the above negotiations.

    This might sound semantic but I don't think it is. If one uses this terminology it puts a different - and IMO more accurate - slant on things.

    For example, it becomes clear that a 'No Deal Brexit' is a meaningless tautology. ALL Brexits are No Deal Brexits since a Deal can only be done once Brexit has happened.
  • As long as there is Corbyn the Tories will win most seats and have a very decent chance to get a majority. The coud well do it with a vote share close to the 1997 one.

    Yes, that's certainly possible. But the window is relatively narrow: to get a majority, Boris needs to either circumvent the Benn Act and engineer an election before the no-deal chaos hits home, or somehow evade the blame for not doing-or-dying whilst holding his current support for long enough to get to the election before too much political capital has drained away.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,022

    That Boris speech is one of the best I’ve ever heard.

    It beats Churchill’s “we will fight them on the beaches”.

    Just superb.

    You're not normally one for sarcasm.
    What do you mean?

    If only Churchill had half the rhetorical skills and energy that Boris has we’d have been in Berlin in 1944, and ended the Cold War before it ever began.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    That Boris speech is one of the best I’ve ever heard.

    It beats Churchill’s “we will fight them on the beaches”.

    Just superb.

    You're not normally one for sarcasm.
    What do you mean?

    If only Churchill had half the rhetorical skills and energy that Boris has we’d have been in Berlin in 1944, and ended the Cold War before it ever began.
    :lol:
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,300
    kinabalu said:

    I think we would all benefit from the following clarification of terms -

    DEAL:
    The Future Relationship. To be negotiated over a period of several years which will likely span multiple general elections and potentially some big changes in political climate both here and in Brussels. Until these negotiations are concluded it is not possible to say whether we have ended up with a 'soft' or a 'hard' Brexit.

    BREXIT:
    The event - which can be chaotic or orderly - that must occur in order to start the above negotiations.

    This might sound semantic but I don't think it is. If one uses this terminology it puts a different - and IMO more accurate - slant on things.

    For example, it becomes clear that a 'No Deal Brexit' is a meaningless tautology. ALL Brexits are No Deal Brexits since a Deal can only be done once Brexit has happened.

    So maybe "No Transition Period and No Starting Point for Talks on a Future Relationship" Brexit?

    And given your thoughts on the time needed to negotiate a future relationship, do you see a standstill transition period being extended for the same period (which would be politically tricky for some when those multiple general elections come round!)
  • kinabalu said:

    I think we would all benefit from the following clarification of terms -

    DEAL:
    The Future Relationship. To be negotiated over a period of several years which will likely span multiple general elections and potentially some big changes in political climate both here and in Brussels. Until these negotiations are concluded it is not possible to say whether we have ended up with a 'soft' or a 'hard' Brexit.

    BREXIT:
    The event - which can be chaotic or orderly - that must occur in order to start the above negotiations.

    This might sound semantic but I don't think it is. If one uses this terminology it puts a different - and IMO more accurate - slant on things.

    For example, it becomes clear that a 'No Deal Brexit' is a meaningless tautology. ALL Brexits are No Deal Brexits since a Deal can only be done once Brexit has happened.

    No, a 'deal' in this context means a Withdrawal Agreement. It would be very confusing to switch terminology now.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    kinabalu said:

    I think we would all benefit from the following clarification of terms -

    DEAL:
    The Future Relationship. To be negotiated over a period of several years which will likely span multiple general elections and potentially some big changes in political climate both here and in Brussels. Until these negotiations are concluded it is not possible to say whether we have ended up with a 'soft' or a 'hard' Brexit.

    BREXIT:
    The event - which can be chaotic or orderly - that must occur in order to start the above negotiations.

    This might sound semantic but I don't think it is. If one uses this terminology it puts a different - and IMO more accurate - slant on things.

    For example, it becomes clear that a 'No Deal Brexit' is a meaningless tautology. ALL Brexits are No Deal Brexits since a Deal can only be done once Brexit has happened.

    That's the way I always saw it. Even if nothing changes at first, we have the opportunity to elect governments that can change our relationship with the EU over time. I would have bitten your hand off to be in this position now if you had asked me in 2013

  • Elections are very unpredictable things as the 2017 election showed and you can easily imagine a Lib/Lab Government.Would such a Government abolish private schools? Who knows and why take the risk?

    No, anyone who understands anything about politics, there's no risk
    You have a crystal ball telling you what is in the coalition government manifesto do you? In any event you only need to raise the prospect on the doorstep and that will be enough.
    It's unlikely that the LibDems would want another coalition for ovious reasons. Any C&S arrangement would mean Labour's more extreme policies being voted down.
    One thing that all these shenanigans in Parliament with MPs defecting,cross party collusion,talk of GNUs etc has made clear is that you can rule absolutely nothing out any more.How strong the LDs bargaining position would be would depend on the Mp numbers and we have seen before over student fees that they are prepared to sell out their principles for government. In any event I am not sure which of Labour's policies they regard as extreme.
    I still find the "Lib Dem sell-out" meme a bit unthinking (apparently unusually for someone not on their frontbench team :smiley: ).

    They held about one in seven of the seats in a coalition. Therefore they were going to get little more than one in seven of the sweeties - and be expected to unwrap the other six and pop them in Daddy Cameron's mouth.

    I don't see Cameron being accused of "selling out Tory principles" by legalising gay marriage or holding a referendum on changing the FPTP voting system (though I concede he might if he lost that one too!)

    Given what's gone since, I'd say there's prima facie evidence of the LibDems being quite a moderating influence on the 2010 Tory administration. And what's the point of even existing as a minor party if you don't want to hold power in some form.

    So. I think their coolness on a coalition will ease somewhat at 10.05pm on election night if the exit poll says the right things. Mind you.. I still think there's an interesting space to be explored between "won't do a deal with Corbyn or Johnson" (which they've said) and "won't do a deal with Lab or Con" (which I don't think they have).
    Trust in politics and politicians in this country is probably now at an all time low.People remember the Lib Dems and tuition fees as a totemic sell out (whatever the reasons for it ) so they are far from immune to this distrust. The electorate will assume their worst scenario will be likely to materialise now.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s game over for the Brexit Party if a deal passes .

    Farage can scream betrayal but the symbolism of the UK leaving can’t be underestimated.

    The symbolism of having left but still being constrained by EU rules can't be underestimated. The whole thing will have been for nothing, and it will do nothing to end the polarisation.
    The symbolisation of having voted for something and it being done rather than ignored is what seems to be underestimated
    You voted to end free movement. If there's a deal, free movement will continue. It will be a complete slap in the face for you.
    Come again?

    Free movement ending has already been accepted by the EU in May's deal, why would it continue under a Boris deal?
    The transition is a total standstill. Free movement does not end under it. As for the future relationship, that depends on trade offs that have yet to be made. Johnson has now accepted the principle of a standstill transition, having previously described it as an unacceptable 'vassal state' status.
    Will the UK have to enforce the financial transparency regulations during transition?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    In PMQs news, I gather Diane couldn't count to six......
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669

    As long as there is Corbyn the Tories will win most seats and have a very decent chance to get a majority. The coud well do it with a vote share close to the 1997 one.

    Yes, that's certainly possible. But the window is relatively narrow: to get a majority, Boris needs to either circumvent the Benn Act and engineer an election before the no-deal chaos hits home, or somehow evade the blame for not doing-or-dying whilst holding his current support for long enough to get to the election before too much political capital has drained away.
    OK, say Mr Cummings has a cunning plan and the UK crashes out in just over 4 weeks time. The opposition parties would have no reason not to let him stay put until enough chickens return to roost for the Tories to sink in the polls. So GE not before next year?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited October 2019
    Scott_P said:

    Twitter commentators don't like Boris!!!

    And in other news the Pope remains Catholic! :D
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    philiph said:

    Tabman said:

    philiph said:

    philiph said:

    By suggesting Brexit is a cancer on this country, I think you are confusing the cause with the symptom. It is the causes of Brexit that are the cancer. As yet there seem to very few suggestions for treating the causes.

    The cause is our semi-detached relationship. The cure is to join the Euro.
    I agree the semidetached relationship is a major (but by no means the only) cause. Fully in is far preferable to revoke to where we were.
    Being half in gives you the same problems as being fully in. Better a clean withdrawal.
    Half in and all in give different problems. We know half in is a fractious position, all in would, I believe, be better.

    Our two best options are all in or all out. All options are in some way suboptimal.
    Whoooosh ....
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    nichomar said:

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s game over for the Brexit Party if a deal passes .

    Farage can scream betrayal but the symbolism of the UK leaving can’t be underestimated.

    The symbolism of having left but still being constrained by EU rules can't be underestimated. The whole thing will have been for nothing, and it will do nothing to end the polarisation.
    The symbolisation of having voted for something and it being done rather than ignored is what seems to be underestimated
    You voted to end free movement. If there's a deal, free movement will continue. It will be a complete slap in the face for you.
    Come again?

    Free movement ending has already been accepted by the EU in May's deal, why would it continue under a Boris deal?
    The transition is a total standstill. Free movement does not end under it. As for the future relationship, that depends on trade offs that have yet to be made. Johnson has now accepted the principle of a standstill transition, having previously described it as an unacceptable 'vassal state' status.
    Will the UK have to enforce the financial transparency regulations during transition?
    Yes.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    kinabalu said:

    I think we would all benefit from the following clarification of terms -

    DEAL:
    The Future Relationship. To be negotiated over a period of several years which will likely span multiple general elections and potentially some big changes in political climate both here and in Brussels. Until these negotiations are concluded it is not possible to say whether we have ended up with a 'soft' or a 'hard' Brexit.

    BREXIT:
    The event - which can be chaotic or orderly - that must occur in order to start the above negotiations.

    This might sound semantic but I don't think it is. If one uses this terminology it puts a different - and IMO more accurate - slant on things.

    For example, it becomes clear that a 'No Deal Brexit' is a meaningless tautology. ALL Brexits are No Deal Brexits since a Deal can only be done once Brexit has happened.

    No, a 'deal' in this context means a Withdrawal Agreement. It would be very confusing to switch terminology now.
    If we leave without a deal then what happens to the other parties positions. Rejoining the EU looks a natural change for the Lib Dems, but does Labour switch to a referendum on rejoining or just bury Brexit under a renewed domestic agenda.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    nichomar said:

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s game over for the Brexit Party if a deal passes .

    Farage can scream betrayal but the symbolism of the UK leaving can’t be underestimated.

    The symbolism of having left but still being constrained by EU rules can't be underestimated. The whole thing will have been for nothing, and it will do nothing to end the polarisation.
    The symbolisation of having voted for something and it being done rather than ignored is what seems to be underestimated
    You voted to end free movement. If there's a deal, free movement will continue. It will be a complete slap in the face for you.
    Come again?

    Free movement ending has already been accepted by the EU in May's deal, why would it continue under a Boris deal?
    The transition is a total standstill. Free movement does not end under it. As for the future relationship, that depends on trade offs that have yet to be made. Johnson has now accepted the principle of a standstill transition, having previously described it as an unacceptable 'vassal state' status.
    Will the UK have to enforce the financial transparency regulations during transition?
    Yes.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    No, a 'deal' in this context means a Withdrawal Agreement. It would be very confusing to switch terminology now.

    I fully realize the difficulty. But I do think it gives a more accurate representation of reality.

    So the Withdrawal Agreement is 'Orderly Brexit'. And exit without is 'Chaotic Brexit'.

    And then the Deal - the FR - will tag that Brexit in due course as being Hard or Soft. Unless we never get that far in which case we have No Brexit.
This discussion has been closed.