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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dominic Raab – a contender for the next election’s “Portillo m

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  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    CatMan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Speaking before he saw the plan, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar told the Irish Parliament: "What we are hearing is not encouraging and would not be the basis for agreement."

    Yes, but now the plan is out ?

    At first glance it looks like Johnson has chucked the DUP under a bus to me. Which would be absolubtely the correct strategy at this point in time if indeed that's what he has done.
    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1179401526537838597?s=20
    Through gritted teeth from Peston
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    So will Merkel go for this deal or roll the dice in a spring GE ?
  • Cyclefree said:

    Anyway I’m off now to make my own speech. Two of them. They too will be filmed.

    Quite nerve-wracking really.

    Anyway wish me luck.

    Don't be, just be yourself.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    DougSeal said:

    ExLibDem #JC4PM #StopFracking 🏳️‍🌈🔯Ⓥ
    @ExLibDemNowLab
    ·
    9h
    64% of Lib Dem voters back putting Corbyn in power temporarily

    Jo Swinson is refusing and playing games

    All I can say to them 64% of Lib Dem voters do what I did quit the party come join us in Labour the door is open and welcoming.

    Do fuck off. I was essentially told to do the same from the party for having the temerity to mount a defence of Tony Blair and suggest that Corbyn needed to address the Press TV and mural issues. The current Labour Party is anything but “welcoming”.
    LDs have a song for your hero as Pilpstar reminds us.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    kinabalu said:

    Charles said:

    When was the last time we had a “deep” conference speech?

    Ed Miliband's 'predator capitalism' one was considerably weightier than the norm.

    Unfortunately the British public turned out to be more interested in how he looked eating a bacon sandwich.
    To be fair he did look and sound ridiculous at the time. However, in retrospect, compared to Bozo and Mr. Thicky he appears and sounds a political colossus. Well, maybe not, but he does at least seem a sane option compered to those two.
    I miss Ed Miliband and David Cameron.
    Christ.. that things have come to this, when I can say the above and actually mean it.
  • RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    I see no justification for any Labour MP who failed to vote for May's Deal to now support any deal brought to Parliament by Johnson. His vile nature and the contempt he has shown for Parliament should be sufficient to rule that out. Any Labour MP who does go along with it , should face deselection - and have the Whip withdrawn.

    So much for respecting the referendum result.
    Why would a deal from Theresa May be less acceptable to them than one offered by a monster such as Johnson?
    Monster? Get a grip.
    Getting a grip is what seems to get Boris Johnson in to trouble.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    I see no justification for any Labour MP who failed to vote for May's Deal to now support any deal brought to Parliament by Johnson. His vile nature and the contempt he has shown for Parliament should be sufficient to rule that out. Any Labour MP who does go along with it , should face deselection - and have the Whip withdrawn.

    So much for respecting the referendum result.
    Why would a deal from Theresa May be less acceptable to them than one offered by a monster such as Johnson?
    Monster? Get a grip.
    He is a thorougly malign and disreputable human being - a lower form of life indeed.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    edited October 2019
    TOPPING said:

    DougSeal said:

    ExLibDem #JC4PM #StopFracking 🏳️‍🌈🔯Ⓥ
    @ExLibDemNowLab
    ·
    9h
    64% of Lib Dem voters back putting Corbyn in power temporarily

    Jo Swinson is refusing and playing games

    All I can say to them 64% of Lib Dem voters do what I did quit the party come join us in Labour the door is open and welcoming.

    Do fuck off. I was essentially told to do the same from the party for having the temerity to mount a defence of Tony Blair and suggest that Corbyn needed to address the Press TV and mural issues. The current Labour Party is anything but “welcoming”.
    Perhaps your opening gambit of "Do fuck off" makes you more suitable for the Tories or Tory Swinsons accept homophobes and allcomers party
    What is the Hamas policy on homosexuality? Can one be both present and involved?
    Please don't point out hypocrisy and contradiction in Labour policy and its leadership. It doesn't exist. Right?

    :wink:
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    TOPPING said:

    DougSeal said:

    ExLibDem #JC4PM #StopFracking 🏳️‍🌈🔯Ⓥ
    @ExLibDemNowLab
    ·
    9h
    64% of Lib Dem voters back putting Corbyn in power temporarily

    Jo Swinson is refusing and playing games

    All I can say to them 64% of Lib Dem voters do what I did quit the party come join us in Labour the door is open and welcoming.

    Do fuck off. I was essentially told to do the same from the party for having the temerity to mount a defence of Tony Blair and suggest that Corbyn needed to address the Press TV and mural issues. The current Labour Party is anything but “welcoming”.
    Perhaps your opening gambit of "Do fuck off" makes you more suitable for the Tories or Tory Swinsons accept homophobes and allcomers party
    What is the Hamas policy on homosexuality? Can one be both present and involved?
    Same as Philip Lee and Tim Farron both MPs in the Tory Swinson Party
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    DUP on board for the deal: https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1179401124467613698

    Those of the 21 who backed May's deal are suggesting they'll back a Boris deal.

    ERG have strongly hinted they'll back a deal if the DUP does.

    Seems like a healthy majority in Parliament to back this deal now! So now its down to just the EU. Can they swallow some humble pie and accept a democratic and quite reasonable compromise?

    NO chance it is a turkey for them, same old sh** sandwich wrapped in tinfoil this time
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    TGOHF2 said:

    So will Merkel go for this deal or roll the dice in a spring GE ?

    I think the EU will make encouraging noises about some of the elements, and indicate that the UK will need to move on others to form a compromise. They won't want to be seen to be responsible for collapsing the negotiations.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,890

    TGOHF2 said:

    So will Merkel go for this deal or roll the dice in a spring GE ?

    I think the EU will make encouraging noises about some of the elements, and indicate that the UK will need to move on others to form a compromise. They won't want to be seen to be responsible for collapsing the negotiations.
    Lock Arlene Foster & Leo Vardkhar in a small room till they've sorted it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    edited October 2019

    TOPPING said:

    DougSeal said:

    ExLibDem #JC4PM #StopFracking 🏳️‍🌈🔯Ⓥ
    @ExLibDemNowLab
    ·
    9h
    64% of Lib Dem voters back putting Corbyn in power temporarily

    Jo Swinson is refusing and playing games

    All I can say to them 64% of Lib Dem voters do what I did quit the party come join us in Labour the door is open and welcoming.

    Do fuck off. I was essentially told to do the same from the party for having the temerity to mount a defence of Tony Blair and suggest that Corbyn needed to address the Press TV and mural issues. The current Labour Party is anything but “welcoming”.
    Perhaps your opening gambit of "Do fuck off" makes you more suitable for the Tories or Tory Swinsons accept homophobes and allcomers party
    What is the Hamas policy on homosexuality? Can one be both present and involved?
    Same as Philip Lee and Tim Farron both MPs in the Tory Swinson Party
    The policy of Hamas on homosexuality is the same as that of Philip Lee and Tim Farron? Is that your view? It's certainly an interesting one. Do they advocate the death penalty for homosexuals? Is that what you believe to be the policy of the Liberal Democrats?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Mr. Pulpstar, I'm not a Varadkar fan, but one suspects this would be rather cruel on him.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Pulpstar said:

    If the UK expanded wind capacity so that we have the ability to produce sufficient to export plenty on the windiest days, France could then schedule nuclear plant downtime around UK low pressure systems.

    Depends how long nuclear plant downtime is compared to the reliability of wind forecasts for the same period, but, yes, in principle that could work.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    DougSeal said:

    ExLibDem #JC4PM #StopFracking 🏳️‍🌈🔯Ⓥ
    @ExLibDemNowLab
    ·
    9h
    64% of Lib Dem voters back putting Corbyn in power temporarily

    Jo Swinson is refusing and playing games

    All I can say to them 64% of Lib Dem voters do what I did quit the party come join us in Labour the door is open and welcoming.

    Do fuck off. I was essentially told to do the same from the party for having the temerity to mount a defence of Tony Blair and suggest that Corbyn needed to address the Press TV and mural issues. The current Labour Party is anything but “welcoming”.
    Perhaps your opening gambit of "Do fuck off" makes you more suitable for the Tories or Tory Swinsons accept homophobes and allcomers party
    What is the Hamas policy on homosexuality? Can one be both present and involved?
    Same as Philip Lee and Tim Farron both MPs in the Tory Swinson Party
    The policy of Hamas on homosexuality is the same as that of Philip Lee and Tim Farron? Is that your view? It's certainly an interesting one. Do they advocate the death penalty for homosexuals? Is that what you believe to be the policy of the Liberal Democrats?
    Are you implying that that reflects Labour policy? It was Labour votes in parliament that landed equal marriage.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    So will Merkel go for this deal or roll the dice in a spring GE ?

    I think the EU will make encouraging noises about some of the elements, and indicate that the UK will need to move on others to form a compromise. They won't want to be seen to be responsible for collapsing the negotiations.
    Lock Arlene Foster & Leo Vardkhar in a small room till they've sorted it.
    Foster only speaks for a small minority of NI
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,890
    edited October 2019
    Scott_P said:
    The main issue will be it reminds everyone he is quite old but he'll be back I expect.
    I'm guessing his price is tanking on Betfair right now but I think it'd be wrong to sell him cheap.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    How many of those listening to

    And leave the LibDems puffed-up, self-important non-entities.....

    Again.

    Finding it really hard to see a way forward for the Brexit Party now.If Boris delivers a deal he will get huge cudos that will outweigh the criticism that the deal is crap.If he doesn't he will either become a brexit martyr or will probably be forgiven by blaming the blockers .

    There is no deal that Johnson can deliver that the ERG can possibly support, let alone the BXP, because it willl have had to have been agreed by the EU first. And any deal the EU agrees to is, by definition, not one either the ERG or BXP will back.

    Obviously the BXP won't back it.I think Baker and Francois ( which presumably brings most of the rest of the ERG) would also seem to be saying they will today if it reflects what Boris seems to be proposing.

    Yep, but that is not a deal. It is a proposal that everyone knows the EU will not accept. It's about being able to blame them for No Deal.

    Here we go again - "everyone knows". I suspect like most people probably do, that the EU will not accept the proposal, cos that's what negotiating is all about, but that is not knowledge. Even if the proposal is close to acceptable it can still be buffed up a bit 'cos they know Boris will not have put everything on the table even if he says he has. No one proposes a deal saying "you can have something better if you ask nicely".

    There seem to be very few on here who have ever done any negotiating or, if they have, were pretty poor at it. The negotiating dance has to be performed until the music stops and (I think) the band is still playing.

    I helped to negotiate a rather big company sale last year. I ma pretty up with how things work. You begin by having the sfinalisation of the deal as your priority, not as a secondary concern. Part of that is not having to second guess third parties who are not involved in the negotiation.

    Which is exactly why parliament’s behaviour has been so corrosive to the chance of getting a deal
    Cast your mind back to when the text of the deal was first announced. Within minutes it was being denounced on all the TV channels by the current Prime Minister.
    I’m talking about way before then

    Grieve’s meaningful vote bullshit
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    Noo said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    DougSeal said:

    ExLibDem #JC4PM #StopFracking 🏳️‍🌈🔯Ⓥ
    @ExLibDemNowLab
    ·
    9h
    64% of Lib Dem voters back putting Corbyn in power temporarily

    Jo Swinson is refusing and playing games

    All I can say to them 64% of Lib Dem voters do what I did quit the party come join us in Labour the door is open and welcoming.

    Do fuck off. I was essentially told to do the same from the party for having the temerity to mount a defence of Tony Blair and suggest that Corbyn needed to address the Press TV and mural issues. The current Labour Party is anything but “welcoming”.
    Perhaps your opening gambit of "Do fuck off" makes you more suitable for the Tories or Tory Swinsons accept homophobes and allcomers party
    What is the Hamas policy on homosexuality? Can one be both present and involved?
    Same as Philip Lee and Tim Farron both MPs in the Tory Swinson Party
    The policy of Hamas on homosexuality is the same as that of Philip Lee and Tim Farron? Is that your view? It's certainly an interesting one. Do they advocate the death penalty for homosexuals? Is that what you believe to be the policy of the Liberal Democrats?
    Are you implying that that reflects Labour policy? It was Labour votes in parliament that landed equal marriage.
    I am not implying. I am stating as bold facts that the leader of the Labour Party considers/considered (you tell me) Hamas to be friends. Hamas, whose policy is to execute homosexuals. Is what I am stating.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Cyclefree said:

    DougSeal said:

    Noo said:

    Sad to see Morrissey supporting a fascist party. Odd to think that a man who once hated Thatcher for being so right wing is now far to the right of her.

    It’s been in the pipeline for a long time though. I bought ‘Viva Hate’ around when it came out in ‘88 or ‘89, I was about 14 or 15, and remember thinking that ‘Bengali in Platforms’ wasn’t quite right, despite Mozza’s protestations that the track was “ironic”. I’ve not changed my view since then.
    He's a good example of someone where you have to divorce the man from his art (though sometimes the man infected the art). Unfortunately for those who regard the two as inextricably linked, his best work is sublime.
    It was Jonny Marr’s guitar playing which made it sublime.
    I have seen Marr live, I agree his guitar is sublime, but he also sings the old stuff better than Morrissey too. Morrissey was famously poor singing live.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    Blimey the markets have taken a pounding today , Boris's dirge went down well.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    malcolmg said:

    DUP on board for the deal: https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1179401124467613698

    Those of the 21 who backed May's deal are suggesting they'll back a Boris deal.

    ERG have strongly hinted they'll back a deal if the DUP does.

    Seems like a healthy majority in Parliament to back this deal now! So now its down to just the EU. Can they swallow some humble pie and accept a democratic and quite reasonable compromise?

    NO chance it is a turkey for them, same old sh** sandwich wrapped in tinfoil this time
    As George Parker asks: have they actually read it.

    Creates an all Ireland zone.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    Charles said:

    Charles said:


    Which is exactly why parliament’s behaviour has been so corrosive to the chance of getting a deal

    Cast your mind back to when the text of the deal was first announced. Within minutes it was being denounced on all the TV channels by the current Prime Minister.
    I’m talking about way before then

    Grieve’s meaningful vote bullshit
    The meaningful vote is a bit of a red herring given that the deal would have required legislation in any case, so it would have still needed parliamentary buy in.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Tabman said:

    Charles said:

    Finding it really hard to see a way forward for the Brexit Party now.If Boris delivers a deal he will get huge cudos that will outweigh the criticism that the deal is crap.If he doesn't he will either become a brexit martyr or will probably be forgiven by blaming the blockers .

    There is no deal that Johnson can deliver that the ERG can possibly support, let alone the BXP, because it willl have had to have been agreed by the EU first. And any deal the EU agrees to is, by definition, not one either the ERG or BXP will back.

    Obviously the BXP won't back it.I think Baker and Francois ( which presumably brings most of the rest of the ERG) would also seem to be saying they will today if it reflects what Boris seems to be proposing.

    Yep, but that is not a deal. It is a proposal that everyone knows the EU will not accept. It's about being able to blame them for No Deal.

    Here we go again - "everyone knows". I suspect like most people probably do, that the EU will not accept the proposal, cos that's what negotiating is all about, but that is not knowledge. Even if the proposal is close to acceptable it can still be buffed up a bit 'cos they know Boris will not have put everything on the table even if he says he has. No one proposes a deal saying "you can have something better if you ask nicely".

    There seem to be very few on here who have ever done any negotiating or, if they have, were pretty poor at it. The negotiating dance has to be performed until the music stops and (I think) the band is still playing.

    I helped to negotiate a rather big company sale last year. I ma pretty up with how things work. You begin by having the sfinalisation of the deal as your priority, not as a secondary concern. Part of that is not having to second guess third parties who are not involved in the negotiation.

    Which is exactly why parliament’s behaviour has been so corrosive to the chance of getting a deal
    One of the key requirements of a negotiation is to understand where you think your negotiating partner wants to end up, and why.

    The UK negotiators didn't do their homework.





    I think that’s unfair

    May’s deal isn’t perfect but it’s workable

    Prior to the politicians getting involved it was a decent negotiation.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Noo said:

    kinabalu said:

    Charles said:

    When was the last time we had a “deep” conference speech?

    Ed Miliband's 'predator capitalism' one was considerably weightier than the norm.

    Unfortunately the British public turned out to be more interested in how he looked eating a bacon sandwich.
    To be fair he did look and sound ridiculous at the time. However, in retrospect, compared to Bozo and Mr. Thicky he appears and sounds a political colossus. Well, maybe not, but he does at least seem a sane option compered to those two.
    I miss Ed Miliband and David Cameron.
    Christ.. that things have come to this, when I can say the above and actually mean it.
    To be objective for a moment instead of hanging onto stereotypes.

    BJ appears to have achieved the following with his actions and todays EU proposal:

    Agreement from ERG, DUP, many of the 21 missing Tories. That is more than any other option has achieved.

    He may be objectionable, but he will have created a Tory party where MPs think before rebellion, there do appear to be consequences. It may be hypocritical, given his voting record, but was needed after the May free for all period.

    It is fair to describe this as potentially creating more harmony in the Tory parliamentary party than it has seen in for many years.

    He appears to have got a bump in the polls.

    Question is, what has he done that is excruciatingly and unforgivably populist and right wing?

    I can think of some Cabinet appointments, Ms Patel, Mr Raab for example. But what on policy or policy announcements?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823
    Wasn't that based on comments before seeing the document?

    Speaking before he saw the plan, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar told the Irish Parliament: "What we are hearing is not encouraging and would not be the basis for agreement."

  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Telegraph reporting No 10 have spoken to Kinnock about support from his group and the response has been encouraging.

    Perhaps these mythical Labour MPs that want a deal are real after all, is Nandy one of them?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    RobD said:

    Wasn't that based on comments before seeing the document?

    Speaking before he saw the plan, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar told the Irish Parliament: "What we are hearing is not encouraging and would not be the basis for agreement."

    It's Sky, so I'm not sure, but I think that's in response to the actual document.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Cyclefree said:

    I look forward to meeting you on the doorstep!

    That will be a test of my powers!

    If I can get you on board, it will be safe to say that Jeremy is heading for number ten.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823

    RobD said:

    Wasn't that based on comments before seeing the document?

    Speaking before he saw the plan, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar told the Irish Parliament: "What we are hearing is not encouraging and would not be the basis for agreement."

    It's Sky, so I'm not sure, but I think that's in response to the actual document.
    Seems odd to say exactly the same thing before and after.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    "We are proposing that the Noerthn Ireland Executive and Assembly should have the opportunity to endorse those arrangements before they enter into force"

    There is no way Brexit will happen at the end of October under these terms.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    malcolmg said:

    Blimey the markets have taken a pounding today , Boris's dirge went down well.

    The Dow and European markets are down too.

    Bad manufacturing figures across the world., Brexit merely the cherry on top.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    Telegraph reporting No 10 have spoken to Kinnock about support from his group and the response has been encouraging.

    Perhaps these mythical Labour MPs that want a deal are real after all, is Nandy one of them?

    Who cares. The EU wont buy it and that is the Cummings plan.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited October 2019
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Wasn't that based on comments before seeing the document?

    Speaking before he saw the plan, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar told the Irish Parliament: "What we are hearing is not encouraging and would not be the basis for agreement."

    It's Sky, so I'm not sure, but I think that's in response to the actual document.
    Seems odd to say exactly the same thing before and after.
    It's not exactly the same thing. And the words do not form "the basis for agreement" have particular meaning - it means that you don't even get to start to negotiate.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,706
    TGOHF2 said:

    So will Merkel go for this deal or roll the dice in a spring GE ?

    I'd imagine she'd bet on the combination of a spring GE or, should that go unfavourably, Britain's experience of a couple weeks of No Deal.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Noo said:

    "We are proposing that the Noerthn Ireland Executive and Assembly should have the opportunity to endorse those arrangements before they enter into force"

    There is no way Brexit will happen at the end of October under these terms.

    That refers to them having their say 6 months before the transition period ends, not now.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    RobD said:

    Wasn't that based on comments before seeing the document?

    Speaking before he saw the plan, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar told the Irish Parliament: "What we are hearing is not encouraging and would not be the basis for agreement."

    I either time travel or saw it yesterday.

    Can't be sure which.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    Charles said:


    May’s deal isn’t perfect but it’s workable

    Prior to the politicians getting involved it was a decent negotiation.

    That's like me saying "I created a great deal - until the Board got involved." A deal that is not going to fly past those that have to approve it is is not a "decent negotiation", it's a waste of everybody's bloody time....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Wasn't that based on comments before seeing the document?

    Speaking before he saw the plan, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar told the Irish Parliament: "What we are hearing is not encouraging and would not be the basis for agreement."

    It's Sky, so I'm not sure, but I think that's in response to the actual document.
    Seems odd to say exactly the same thing before and after.
    It's not exactly the same thing. And the words do not form "the basis for agreement" have particular meaning - it means that you don't even get to start to negotiate.
    True, not promising != not encouraging.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    .
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DougSeal said:

    Noo said:

    Sad to see Morrissey supporting a fascist party. Odd to think that a man who once hated Thatcher for being so right wing is now far to the right of her.

    It’s been in the pipeline for a long time though. I bought ‘Viva Hate’ around when it came out in ‘88 or ‘89, I was about 14 or 15, and remember thinking that ‘Bengali in Platforms’ wasn’t quite right, despite Mozza’s protestations that the track was “ironic”. I’ve not changed my view since then.
    He's a good example of someone where you have to divorce the man from his art (though sometimes the man infected the art). Unfortunately for those who regard the two as inextricably linked, his best work is sublime.
    It was Jonny Marr’s guitar playing which made it sublime.
    I have seen Marr live, I agree his guitar is sublime, but he also sings the old stuff better than Morrissey too. Morrissey was famously poor singing live.
    I would take 1/10 that if Morrissey hadnt made pro Brexit and Anne Marie Waters comments, yourself and Cyclefree would not be playing down his importance to The Smiths!

    Have you heard their live album, "Rank"? His singing is spot on. Nowadays, I agree Marr is a more polished singer, but his vocals lack any of the passion that made The Smiths songs what they are

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    DougSeal said:

    ExLibDem #JC4PM #StopFracking 🏳️‍🌈🔯Ⓥ
    @ExLibDemNowLab
    ·
    9h
    64% of Lib Dem voters back putting Corbyn in power temporarily

    Jo Swinson is refusing and playing games

    All I can say to them 64% of Lib Dem voters do what I did quit the party come join us in Labour the door is open and welcoming.

    Do fuck off. I was essentially told to do the same from the party for having the temerity to mount a defence of Tony Blair and suggest that Corbyn needed to address the Press TV and mural issues. The current Labour Party is anything but “welcoming”.
    Perhaps your opening gambit of "Do fuck off" makes you more suitable for the Tories or Tory Swinsons accept homophobes and allcomers party
    Your response speaks for itself. Save for one youthful tactical vote for an LD I have never voted anything but Labour. Indeed when I lived in Archway I twice directly voted for Corbyn himself as my MP. Now it appears that my vote is not needed, nor is it wanted. So I won’t be giving it to you again. An allcomers party (aka a “broad church”) is likely to be more successful than yours, with its idealogical purity tests. And given that your leader presented a show on a subsidiary of the Iranian State Broadcaster I don’t think he has a problem with homophobes either.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    TOPPING said:

    Noo said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    DougSeal said:

    ExLibDem #JC4PM #StopFracking 🏳️‍🌈🔯Ⓥ
    @ExLibDemNowLab
    ·
    9h
    64% of Lib Dem voters back putting Corbyn in power temporarily

    Jo Swinson is refusing and playing games

    All I can say to them 64% of Lib Dem voters do what I did quit the party come join us in Labour the door is open and welcoming.

    Do fuck off. I was essentially told to do the same from the party for having the temerity to mount a defence of Tony Blair and suggest that Corbyn needed to address the Press TV and mural issues. The current Labour Party is anything but “welcoming”.
    Perhaps your opening gambit of "Do fuck off" makes you more suitable for the Tories or Tory Swinsons accept homophobes and allcomers party
    What is the Hamas policy on homosexuality? Can one be both present and involved?
    Same as Philip Lee and Tim Farron both MPs in the Tory Swinson Party
    The policy of Hamas on homosexuality is the same as that of Philip Lee and Tim Farron? Is that your view? It's certainly an interesting one. Do they advocate the death penalty for homosexuals? Is that what you believe to be the policy of the Liberal Democrats?
    Are you implying that that reflects Labour policy? It was Labour votes in parliament that landed equal marriage.
    I am not implying. I am stating as bold facts that the leader of the Labour Party considers/considered (you tell me) Hamas to be friends. Hamas, whose policy is to execute homosexuals. Is what I am stating.
    Yet voting records suggest Jezza is in favour of Gay Rights and Marriage

    Same Cant be said for at least 3 LD MPs

    dozens of Tory MPs and 100% of Jesters DUP allies
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DougSeal said:

    Noo said:

    Sad to see Morrissey supporting a fascist party. Odd to think that a man who once hated Thatcher for being so right wing is now far to the right of her.

    It’s been in the pipeline for a long time though. I bought ‘Viva Hate’ around when it came out in ‘88 or ‘89, I was about 14 or 15, and remember thinking that ‘Bengali in Platforms’ wasn’t quite right, despite Mozza’s protestations that the track was “ironic”. I’ve not changed my view since then.
    He's a good example of someone where you have to divorce the man from his art (though sometimes the man infected the art). Unfortunately for those who regard the two as inextricably linked, his best work is sublime.
    It was Jonny Marr’s guitar playing which made it sublime.
    I have seen Marr live, I agree his guitar is sublime, but he also sings the old stuff better than Morrissey too. Morrissey was famously poor singing live.
    The last time I was in the Conservative's conference centre was when it was the G-Mex centre, to see a bunch of bands that included The Smiths and New Order.

    A very fine £13.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    The main issue will be it reminds everyone he is quite old but he'll be back I expect.
    I'm guessing his price is tanking on Betfair right now but I think it'd be wrong to sell him cheap.
    His larger problem is that he's losing to Warren.
    Who is gaining momentum...
    https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/02/elizabeth-warren-black-voters-support-2020-016649
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    DougSeal said:

    Noo said:

    Sad to see Morrissey supporting a fascist party. Odd to think that a man who once hated Thatcher for being so right wing is now far to the right of her.

    It’s been in the pipeline for a long time though. I bought ‘Viva Hate’ around when it came out in ‘88 or ‘89, I was about 14 or 15, and remember thinking that ‘Bengali in Platforms’ wasn’t quite right, despite Mozza’s protestations that the track was “ironic”. I’ve not changed my view since then.
    He's a good example of someone where you have to divorce the man from his art (though sometimes the man infected the art). Unfortunately for those who regard the two as inextricably linked, his best work is sublime.
    It was Jonny Marr’s guitar playing which made it sublime.
    I have seen Marr live, I agree his guitar is sublime, but he also sings the old stuff better than Morrissey too. Morrissey was famously poor singing live.
    He's also a LOT better than Bernard Sumner
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9zU6WkBpIM

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,706

    Charles said:


    May’s deal isn’t perfect but it’s workable

    Prior to the politicians getting involved it was a decent negotiation.

    That's like me saying "I created a great deal - until the Board got involved." A deal that is not going to fly past those that have to approve it is is not a "decent negotiation", it's a waste of everybody's bloody time....
    TBH I doubt any other plausible deal would passed parliament either. The ERG didn't want anything ressembling a compromise with the real world and the opposition didn't want to give the government a win. So it wasn't going to pass without buying off some opposition faction (for example with a confirmatory referendum) and doing that wasn't consistent with avoiding a Tory leadership challenge.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    I wonder if all Corbynites only like the Pink Floyd albums that Roger Waters wrote nowadays...
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Charles said:

    Tabman said:

    Charles said:

    Finding it really hard to see a way forward for the Brexit Party now.If Boris delivers a deal he will get huge cudos that will outweigh the criticism that the deal is crap.If he doesn't he will either become a brexit martyr or will probably be forgiven by blaming the blockers .

    There is no deal that Johnson can deliver that the ERG can possibly support, let alone the BXP, because it willl have had to have been agreed by the EU first. And any deal the EU agrees to is, by definition, not one either the ERG or BXP will back.

    Obviously the BXP won't back it.I think Baker and Francois ( which presumably brings most of the rest of the ERG) would also seem to be saying they will today if it reflects what Boris seems to be proposing.

    Yep, but that is not a deal. It is a proposal that everyone knows the EU will not accept. It's about being able to blame them for No Deal.

    Here we go again - "everyone knows". I suspect like most people probably do, that the EU will not accept the proposal, cos that's what negotiating is all about, but that is not knowledge. Even if the proposal is close to acceptable it can still be buffed up a bit 'cos they know Boris will not have put everything on the table even if he says he has. No one proposes a deal saying "you can have something better if you ask nicely".

    There seem to be very few on here who have ever done any negotiating or, if they have, were pretty poor at it. The negotiating dance has to be performed until the music stops and (I think) the band is still playing.

    I helped to negotiate a rather big company sale last year. I ma pretty up with how things work. You begin by having the sfinalisation of the deal as your priority, not as a secondary concern. Part of that is not having to second guess third parties who are not involved in the negotiation.

    Which is exactly why parliament’s behaviour has been so corrosive to the chance of getting a deal
    One of the key requirements of a negotiation is to understand where you think your negotiating partner wants to end up, and why.

    The UK negotiators didn't do their homework.





    I think that’s unfair

    May’s deal isn’t perfect but it’s workable

    Prior to the politicians getting involved it was a decent negotiation.
    They didn't do their homework in terms of negotiating with Parliament first.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    edited October 2019

    To my inexpert eyes, the Boris plan looks fine as far as it goes (which isn't very far), but it doesn't seem to be anything new. It's just a rehash of what Theresa May tried unsuccessfully to get the EU to agree to, isn't it?

    Soon as I heard the DUP were happy with it I knew without needing to look at the detail that it was non starter. There is no exit Deal that the EU will accept that does not seriously piss off the DUP.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,890
    I don't think he will but if Sanders pulls out, Warren and Biden leap further ahead of the field I reckon. Ideologically his support should lean more Warren but Sanders voters 2nd pref was Biden over Warren back in February when he had a large lead.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    kinabalu said:

    To my inexpert eyes, the Boris plan looks fine as far as it goes (which isn't very far), but it doesn't seem to be anything new. It's just a rehash of what Theresa May tried unsuccessfully to get the EU to agree to, isn't it?

    Soon as I heard the DUP were happy with it I knew without needing to look at the detail that it was non starter. There is no exit Deal that the EU will accept that does not seriously piss off the DUP.
    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1179411489733656576
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    "We are proposing that the Noerthn Ireland Executive and Assembly should have the opportunity to endorse those arrangements before they enter into force"

    There is no way Brexit will happen at the end of October under these terms.

    That refers to them having their say 6 months before the transition period ends, not now.
    right you are, thanks for that
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,890
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    The main issue will be it reminds everyone he is quite old but he'll be back I expect.
    I'm guessing his price is tanking on Betfair right now but I think it'd be wrong to sell him cheap.
    His larger problem is that he's losing to Warren.
    Who is gaining momentum...
    https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/02/elizabeth-warren-black-voters-support-2020-016649
    This is all fully reflected in Warren's price, and then some.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    TBH I doubt any other plausible deal would passed parliament either. The ERG didn't want anything ressembling a compromise with the real world and the opposition didn't want to give the government a win. So it wasn't going to pass without buying off some opposition faction (for example with a confirmatory referendum) and doing that wasn't consistent with avoiding a Tory leadership challenge.

    Think that's right.

    The ever perceptive Nigel Farage said straight after GE17 that it meant Brexit was never going to pass this parliament.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753

    TOPPING said:

    Noo said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    DougSeal said:

    ExLibDem #JC4PM #StopFracking 🏳️‍🌈🔯Ⓥ
    @ExLibDemNowLab
    ·
    9h
    64% of Lib Dem voters back putting Corbyn in power temporarily

    Jo Swinson is refusing and playing games

    All I can say to them 64% of Lib Dem voters do what I did quit the party come join us in Labour the door is open and welcoming.

    Do fuck off. I was essentially told to do the same from the party for having the temerity to mount a defence of Tony Blair and suggest that Corbyn needed to address the Press TV and mural issues. The current Labour Party is anything but “welcoming”.
    Perhaps your opening gambit of "Do fuck off" makes you more suitable for the Tories or Tory Swinsons accept homophobes and allcomers party
    What is the Hamas policy on homosexuality? Can one be both present and involved?
    Same as Philip Lee and Tim Farron both MPs in the Tory Swinson Party
    The policy of Hamas on homosexuality is the same as that of Philip Lee and Tim Farron? Is that your view? It's certainly an interesting one. Do they advocate the death penalty for homosexuals? Is that what you believe to be the policy of the Liberal Democrats?
    Are you implying that that reflects Labour policy? It was Labour votes in parliament that landed equal marriage.
    I am not implying. I am stating as bold facts that the leader of the Labour Party considers/considered (you tell me) Hamas to be friends. Hamas, whose policy is to execute homosexuals. Is what I am stating.
    Yet voting records suggest Jezza is in favour of Gay Rights and Marriage

    Same Cant be said for at least 3 LD MPs

    dozens of Tory MPs and 100% of Jesters DUP allies
    Although very stupid, he is not completely stupid. Know people by their friends is not a bad maxim at all and explains an awful lot about your man Jeremy. He is friends with people who fling homosexuals off buildings. Not sure if even the Bullingdon indulged in that particular activity.

    But not only that, you think, because that is what you posted, that Tim Farron and Jo Swinson also believe that homosexuals should be flung off buildings. What if I may ask have they done which has lead you to this conclusion?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,920
    edited October 2019
    Re Bernie Sanders (1):

    A blocked artery is hardly unknown, and these days with keyhole surgery and stents, it's not that big a deal.

    But it also is a big deal.

    A candidate who cannot campaign cannot convince the electorate that they are fit enough for the job of POTUS. This is bad news for Bernie. But it's also (to a lesser extent) bad news for Biden. It's a reminder that older candidates are not immune from medical problems.

    So, cui bono and all that?

    Well, the obvious beneficiary is Warren. But she's already a 50% chance for the nomination on Betfair. (For the record, Ms Clinton is rated the same chance of getting the nomination as Harris, Buttigieg, Yang and Sanders. That's insane. Sell Ms Clinton.)

    How about a small wager on Ms Gabbard? She's appropriately left wing. She's a fearsome campaigner. She has some overlap with Mr Sanders.

    And most importantly, she's not currently in the debates, but could get there if some of Sanders' support comes to her. Betting on her at 75-1 is a trading bet, but it's not a stupid one. She could easily come in to 25-1 if she makes it to the debates.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,048
    edited October 2019
    Some interesting stuff here but one thing that you betting types might want to check out is this comment regarding the election: "The government’s favoured date for a general election is said to be 28th November – there is “a real keenness” not to have an election in December, no. 10 sources have said."

    https://www.channel4.com/news/by/gary-gibbon/blogs/brexit-proposal-sinking-on-launch?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,364
    I think the EU might eventually go for it, because the money keep rolling in from the UK, But it will never get through Parliament. Jezza will never vote for something that has a Tory stamp on it, and the SNP only exist to cause mischief.

    The LDs want to revoke so goodbye to compromise and the voters' views. Bring on the GE.

  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    To my inexpert eyes, the Boris plan looks fine as far as it goes (which isn't very far), but it doesn't seem to be anything new. It's just a rehash of what Theresa May tried unsuccessfully to get the EU to agree to, isn't it?

    Not sure how it compares with what May wanted originally but it's certainly not May's Withdrawal Agreement. May's unratified WA settled very little in detail and everything was down to further negotiations towards the final settlement beyond the transition period The critical point about the backstop is that it provided the EU with immense leverage in those negotiations to come, on all the other aspects of the final agreement that have nothing in particular to do with NI. The "Boris plan" gets rid of the armlock in those subsequent negotiations which will take place once we are out.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    They will do what the EU tells them. That's a fact of being a member that isn't France or Germany. See also Greece. It is what the EU thinks that is pertinent.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    Why would they be worried that attendees at the Conservative Party conference were hugely enthusiastic about a speech given by the leader of the Conservative Party?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The proposals aren’t without some merit from the government but a big problem is giving the DUP an effective veto and this completely ignores the rest of the parties in NI .

    There’s no way Ireland will accept this and it seems the DUP like to drone on about democratic accountability only when it suits them .

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    What a surprise. Cummings "strategy" - blame EU for breakdown in talks. Somehow engineer a GE with the full whipped up mob.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Noo said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    DougSeal said:

    ExLibDem #JC4PM #StopFracking 🏳️‍🌈🔯Ⓥ
    @ExLibDemNowLab
    ·
    9h
    64% of Lib Dem voters back putting Corbyn in power temporarily

    Jo Swinson is refusing and playing games

    All I can say to them 64% of Lib Dem voters do what I did quit the party come join us in Labour the door is open and welcoming.

    Do fuck off. I was essentially told to do the same from the party for having the temerity to mount a defence of Tony Blair and suggest that Corbyn needed to address the Press TV and mural issues. The current Labour Party is anything but “welcoming”.
    Perhaps your opening gambit of "Do fuck off" makes you more suitable for the Tories or Tory Swinsons accept homophobes and allcomers party
    What is the Hamas policy on homosexuality? Can one be both present and involved?
    Same as Philip Lee and Tim Farron both MPs in the Tory Swinson Party
    The policy of Hamas on homosexuality is the same as that of Philip Lee and Tim Farron? Is that your view? It's certainly an interesting one. Do they advocate the death penalty for homosexuals? Is that what you believe to be the policy of the Liberal Democrats?
    Are you implying that that reflects Labour policy? It was Labour votes in parliament that landed equal marriage.
    I am not implying. I am stating as bold facts that the leader of the Labour Party considers/considered (you tell me) Hamas to be friends. Hamas, whose policy is to execute homosexuals. Is what I am stating.
    Yet voting records suggest Jezza is in favour of Gay Rights and Marriage

    Same Cant be said for at least 3 LD MPs

    dozens of Tory MPs and 100% of Jesters DUP allies
    Although very stupid, he is not completely stupid. Know people by their friends is not a bad maxim at all and explains an awful lot about your man Jeremy. He is friends with people who fling homosexuals off buildings. Not sure if even the Bullingdon indulged in that particular activity.

    But not only that, you think, because that is what you posted, that Tim Farron and Jo Swinson also believe that homosexuals should be flung off buildings. What if I may ask have they done which has lead you to this conclusion?
    This is offensive bollocks. You're trying to malign Corbyn for views he very clearly doesn't hold. Labour have an excellent record on gay rights.
    There's a lot to criticise Labour and Corbyn for, but this is childish garbage.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,890
    @rcs1000 I get your point but Elizabeth Warren is 70 too you know :p -


    What's the critical age when one becomes "too old" for the presidency

    70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75 or 76 ? :)
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    They will do what the EU tells them. That's a fact of being a member that isn't France or Germany. See also Greece. It is what the EU thinks that is pertinent.
    yawn
  • Define "sensible". Is that "people I agree with"?

    Being a Theresa May 2.0 using vapid soundbites telling everyone on all sides what they want to hear, allowing the whip to completely be ignored with impunity and standing for nothing at all won't win one back either. Boris is making clear what he stands for and people can either vote for it or not, but at least he stands for something other than "Brexit means Brexit" and allowing Grieve and JRM to completely ignore the whip from opposite sides of the argument under the same colours as the leader.

    'Sensible people' means what it says.

    I've no idea what your second paragraph is saying, but certainly no-one would cite Theresa May as a great leader or speech writer.
    In the context of Brexit the sensible MPs who want to respect what the country voted for are still in the party.

    The 21 extremists who voted against the party whip are not the sensible ones. They are a tiny minority.
    "extremists"? You Brexit obsessives really have lost the plot! Get it through your skull, Brexit is a far right construct, based often, though not always on xenophobia and often racism. It is an extremists' creed. Being against it does not make anyone an extremists except form a very very warped perspective. By the way, most, if not all, voted for the WA. Moderates mate. You might dislike them, but only a complete idiot would describe them politically as extremists.
    Yes extremists. Is also use the word to describe Baker, Francois etc.

    There are two extremes within the party (or was until the expulsions), Baker etc on one extreme and Grieve etc were the other extreme.

    All your ranting and raving about the far right just makes you look mad not moderate.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    They will do what the EU tells them. That's a fact of being a member that isn't France or Germany. See also Greece. It is what the EU thinks that is pertinent.
    Irish diplomacy over the last few years has been successful in persuading the EU that what is good for Ireland is good for them. I guess we'll see how good Irish diplomacy is in keeping the EU behind them on this.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823
    nico67 said:

    The proposals aren’t without some merit from the government but a big problem is giving the DUP an effective veto and this completely ignores the rest of the parties in NI .

    There’s no way Ireland will accept this and it seems the DUP like to drone on about democratic accountability only when it suits them .

    The rest of the parties are represented at the assembly, and I think there is enforced cohabitation, so it would rely on both sides agreeing or not agreeing to it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,920
    Re Bernie Sanders (2):

    There's another older candidate out there.

    It's President Donald J Trump.

    You know the guy: in a stressful job, with a poor diet, no exercise, rather overweight.

    Now, the selling the 1.24 for him to be next Republican nominee doesn't look too attractive. In fact it looks downright rubbish.

    But bizarrely, he's 2.4 for Next President, while the Republicans are 2.12. In other words you can choose between roughly 4-1 for him to not be the nominee... or 8-1. (I.e. you buy Republicans to win the White House, but sell Donald J Trump as next President.)

    But that's not the smart bet.

    The smart bet is taking the 60-1 on Pence being the next President, and selling the Republicans. Which, ummm, gets you effective on odds on Donald Trump not being the Republican nominee... *or* him having a health (or other) problem between nomination and election... of 25-1.

    If I wasn't in the US and therefore prohibited from betting, I'd be filling my boots with everything Betfair was offering here.
  • Pulpstar said:

    @rcs1000 I get your point but Elizabeth Warren is 70 too you know :p -


    What's the critical age when one becomes "too old" for the presidency

    70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75 or 76 ? :)

    Whatever age the leading female candidate is
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    Noo said:

    This is offensive bollocks. You're trying to malign Corbyn for views he very clearly doesn't hold. Labour have an excellent record on gay rights.
    There's a lot to criticise Labour and Corbyn for, but this is childish garbage.

    I asked @bjo what Hamas' policy on homosexuality was and he responded that it was the same as Tim Farron and Jo Swinson's. I am curious to understand how he has arrived at that conclusion.

    As for maligning Corbyn, he is an anti-semite. He associates with anti-semites. There are many sensible articles explaining why this is (my enemy's enemy is my friend, the change in Israel from plucky little guy to oppressor, the whole mural Jews oppressing the working people schtick, etc, etc), but anti-semitic he most certainly is.

    Give the Labour Party a sensible, non-anti-semitic leader and do you think they would be frightened of a general election right now?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,503
    DougSeal said:



    Do fuck off. I was essentially told to do the same from the party for having the temerity to mount a defence of Tony Blair and suggest that Corbyn needed to address the Press TV and mural issues. The current Labour Party is anything but “welcoming”.

    Doug, without knowing who you talked to and what everyone said it's hard to comment sensibly, but in general the parties all have a range of people from the uninspired but sensible to the dreaming zealots (with the respective leaderships normally somewhere in the middle...). My CLP has unanimously endorsed a Blairite candidate who was a fighter pilot in Afghanistan, even though most of us are Corbynites. We simply feel he'll be a great candidate, and we all get on well. I'm sorry to hear that you ran into a less amicable bunch - please don't think we're all like that.

    Hope Cyclefree's speeches went well (I'm sure they did, but tell us how they went!). Not as scary as me speaking at the Tory conference, maybe, but that went fine too.
  • justin124 said:

    I see no justification for any Labour MP who failed to vote for May's Deal to now support any deal brought to Parliament by Johnson. His vile nature and the contempt he has shown for Parliament should be sufficient to rule that out. Any Labour MP who does go along with it , should face deselection - and have the Whip withdrawn.

    Party before country?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,920

    They will do what the EU tells them. That's a fact of being a member that isn't France or Germany. See also Greece. It is what the EU thinks that is pertinent.
    Politicians also have domestic political pressures. If there's a conflict between the EU and the polls at home, most politicians remember that the EU cannot vote them out. (See Orban, Vivtor.)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753

    DougSeal said:



    Do fuck off. I was essentially told to do the same from the party for having the temerity to mount a defence of Tony Blair and suggest that Corbyn needed to address the Press TV and mural issues. The current Labour Party is anything but “welcoming”.

    Doug, without knowing who you talked to and what everyone said it's hard to comment sensibly, but in general the parties all have a range of people from the uninspired but sensible to the dreaming zealots (with the respective leaderships normally somewhere in the middle...). My CLP has unanimously endorsed a Blairite candidate who was a fighter pilot in Afghanistan, even though most of us are Corbynites. We simply feel he'll be a great candidate, and we all get on well. I'm sorry to hear that you ran into a less amicable bunch - please don't think we're all like that.

    Hope Cyclefree's speeches went well (I'm sure they did, but tell us how they went!). Not as scary as me speaking at the Tory conference, maybe, but that went fine too.
    Not @Dura_Ace?????!!!!

    :smile:
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    What a surprise. Cummings "strategy" - blame EU for breakdown in talks. Somehow engineer a GE with the full whipped up mob.

    If you go looking for a mob then you will find a mob.

    But heaven knows it's deeply reprehensible.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    rcs1000 said:

    Re Bernie Sanders (2):

    There's another older candidate out there.

    It's President Donald J Trump.

    You know the guy: in a stressful job, with a poor diet, no exercise, rather overweight.

    Now, the selling the 1.24 for him to be next Republican nominee doesn't look too attractive. In fact it looks downright rubbish.

    But bizarrely, he's 2.4 for Next President, while the Republicans are 2.12. In other words you can choose between roughly 4-1 for him to not be the nominee... or 8-1. (I.e. you buy Republicans to win the White House, but sell Donald J Trump as next President.)

    But that's not the smart bet.

    The smart bet is taking the 60-1 on Pence being the next President, and selling the Republicans. Which, ummm, gets you effective on odds on Donald Trump not being the Republican nominee... *or* him having a health (or other) problem between nomination and election... of 25-1.

    If I wasn't in the US and therefore prohibited from betting, I'd be filling my boots with everything Betfair was offering here.

    It looks much better odds than laying the 1.24, but are the odds good? That is, maybe both are poor value?
    We don't really have history to help us decide on the real chances of certain outcomes, so what do we use to decide value? Gut feelings? Inside information?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    rcs1000 said:

    Re Bernie Sanders (1):

    A blocked artery is hardly unknown, and these days with keyhole surgery and stents, it's not that big a deal.

    But it also is a big deal.

    A candidate who cannot campaign cannot convince the electorate that they are fit enough for the job of POTUS. This is bad news for Bernie. But it's also (to a lesser extent) bad news for Biden. It's a reminder that older candidates are not immune from medical problems.

    So, cui bono and all that?

    Well, the obvious beneficiary is Warren. But she's already a 50% chance for the nomination on Betfair. (For the record, Ms Clinton is rated the same chance of getting the nomination as Harris, Buttigieg, Yang and Sanders. That's insane. Sell Ms Clinton.)

    How about a small wager on Ms Gabbard? She's appropriately left wing. She's a fearsome campaigner. She has some overlap with Mr Sanders.

    And most importantly, she's not currently in the debates, but could get there if some of Sanders' support comes to her. Betting on her at 75-1 is a trading bet, but it's not a stupid one. She could easily come in to 25-1 if she makes it to the debates.

    538 thinks Tulsi Gabbard qualifies for the October debate already.
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whos-in-and-whos-out-of-the-october-debate/

    As a far-sighted punter, I am already on at, erm, 50/1. Oops.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,920
    TOPPING said:

    Noo said:

    This is offensive bollocks. You're trying to malign Corbyn for views he very clearly doesn't hold. Labour have an excellent record on gay rights.
    There's a lot to criticise Labour and Corbyn for, but this is childish garbage.

    I asked @bjo what Hamas' policy on homosexuality was and he responded that it was the same as Tim Farron and Jo Swinson's. I am curious to understand how he has arrived at that conclusion.

    As for maligning Corbyn, he is an anti-semite. He associates with anti-semites. There are many sensible articles explaining why this is (my enemy's enemy is my friend, the change in Israel from plucky little guy to oppressor, the whole mural Jews oppressing the working people schtick, etc, etc), but anti-semitic he most certainly is.

    Give the Labour Party a sensible, non-anti-semitic leader and do you think they would be frightened of a general election right now?
    BJO is absolutely correct.

    Jo Swinson believes that homosexuals should be stoned to death.

    Or should be allowed to get stoned.

    I forget which. But it definitely involved getting stoned.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Noo said:

    This is offensive bollocks. You're trying to malign Corbyn for views he very clearly doesn't hold. Labour have an excellent record on gay rights.
    There's a lot to criticise Labour and Corbyn for, but this is childish garbage.

    I asked @bjo what Hamas' policy on homosexuality was and he responded that it was the same as Tim Farron and Jo Swinson's. I am curious to understand how he has arrived at that conclusion.

    As for maligning Corbyn, he is an anti-semite. He associates with anti-semites. There are many sensible articles explaining why this is (my enemy's enemy is my friend, the change in Israel from plucky little guy to oppressor, the whole mural Jews oppressing the working people schtick, etc, etc), but anti-semitic he most certainly is.

    Give the Labour Party a sensible, non-anti-semitic leader and do you think they would be frightened of a general election right now?
    BJO is absolutely correct.

    Jo Swinson believes that homosexuals should be stoned to death.

    Or should be allowed to get stoned.

    I forget which. But it definitely involved getting stoned.
    LOL
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    The proposals aren’t without some merit from the government but a big problem is giving the DUP an effective veto and this completely ignores the rest of the parties in NI .

    There’s no way Ireland will accept this and it seems the DUP like to drone on about democratic accountability only when it suits them .

    The rest of the parties are represented at the assembly, and I think there is enforced cohabitation, so it would rely on both sides agreeing or not agreeing to it.
    IF (big if) it's actually sitting.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    CD13 said:

    I think the EU might eventually go for it, because the money keep rolling in from the UK, But it will never get through Parliament. Jezza will never vote for something that has a Tory stamp on it, and the SNP only exist to cause mischief.

    The LDs want to revoke so goodbye to compromise and the voters' views. Bring on the GE.

    I think it's the other way around. There is no chance of the EU agreeing it - but on the one in a million that they do, it would almost certainly be passed by parliament.
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