Thanks all for providing some occasional entertainment over the last two days. This afternoon I became a father again after a long, drawn out induction of labour.
Thanks all for providing some occasional entertainment over the last two days. This afternoon I became a father again after a long, drawn out induction of labour.
If you think allowing a law to prevent no-deal, losing the Premiership to Corbyn, and then getting an extension constitutes a plan, then please, please don't let me interrupt you...
The plan is to win a majority, and then deliver Brexit (or vice versa, though that's not happening now). All else is tactics.
Ah, hello @Tissue_Price - are you in support of this extreme right caricature of a Conservative Party?
Good question. This guy was a Tory candidate (in Caro Flint’s seat). Worth an answer.
Ken Clarke: it’s the most rightwing cabinet in living memory.
That strikes me as not an unlikely outcome were the election held today. However, governments tend to lose ground during election campaigns.
Apart from 1987. 1992, 2010.2015 and arguably 1997 I suppose.
And the I think the Tories were only down about .2% in 1983 from memory.
The Tories lost ground in the election campaigns of 1983, 1987 and Labour fell back a bit in 2010. Early in the 1983 campaign the Tories were polling in the range of 46% - 52% but ended up on 43.5% on a GB basis. In 1987 the Tories began on 44% - 46% and ended on 43.3%. 2010 saw Labour begin the campaign in the 28% - 33% range with the final result being 29.7%.
The Tories gained ground though in 1992 and 2015, in both cases going from hung parliament territory to a majority, Labour also gained ground in 2005
2005 saw little change in Labour's vote share - it began in the 34% - 37% range and ended on 36%. In both 1992 and 2015 the polls were simply wrong throughout the campaigns with clear methodological issues being susequently identified. There is ,of course, the possibility that such issues will arise again!
Well I'm looking forward to George Osborne's first conference speech as PM. Since the seemless transition from David Cameron in the summer Ozzy has come into his own, using the Conservative majority in parliament to his advantage.
Remember folks, if it wasn't for Labour Leave, this would have been reality.
A small price to pay for not leaving my European friends in the UK at the mercy of the Home Office.
If you think allowing a law to prevent no-deal, losing the Premiership to Corbyn, and then getting an extension constitutes a plan, then please, please don't let me interrupt you...
The plan is to win a majority, and then deliver Brexit (or vice versa, though that's not happening now). All else is tactics.
Ah, hello @Tissue_Price - are you in support of this extreme right caricature of a Conservative Party?
I would rather we hadn't reached this point - despite some issues with the WA it was a reasonable compromise that honoured the referendum. But I backed Boris on the basis that more-of-the-same wouldn't work, and I support his approach now. And it's not an extreme right administration.
Thanks all for providing some occasional entertainment over the last two days. This afternoon I became a father again after a long, drawn out induction of labour.
Congratulations. Hope mother and baby are well.
I daresay there are lots of politics- and Brexit-related names you could choose.
If you think allowing a law to prevent no-deal, losing the Premiership to Corbyn, and then getting an extension constitutes a plan, then please, please don't let me interrupt you...
The plan is to win a majority, and then deliver Brexit (or vice versa, though that's not happening now). All else is tactics.
Fair enough. Let me remind you of what your plans have been since Cameron left:
2016-08: We have a majority government. We intend to deliver Brexit by March 2019 2017-07: We have a Con-DUP pact. We intend to deliver Brexit by March 2019 2019-02: We have a Con minority. We intend to deliver Brexit by March 2019 2019-06: We have a Con minority. We intend to deliver Brexit by November 2019 2019-08: We can't win a House vote. We intend to deliver Brexit by November 2019 2019-11: We are in opposition. We intend to deliver Brexit when we are reelected with a majority
One thing I'd add, having recently been on a short trip to Wigtown, near Stranraer: it takes an age to get from the M6 at Gretna to Stranraer, and that part of the M6 is a long way from the main potential traffic flows - there's a reason that Holyhead has traditionally been more popular (and why that great Scot Telford helped improve the route to it). It's much worse for the Kintyre route.
Having spent part of a weekend in Bettws-y-coed exploring the Telfordian engineering of the A5, I can only agree (and he also rebuilt our local bridge).
Re the Irish Sea bridgoe, doesn't the glacial geology cause problems? Glaciated troughs, lots of postglacial sediments.
One thing I'd add, having recently been on a short trip to Wigtown, near Stranraer: it takes an age to get from the M6 at Gretna to Stranraer, and that part of the M6 is a long way from the main potential traffic flows - there's a reason that Holyhead has traditionally been more popular (and why that great Scot Telford helped improve the route to it). It's much worse for the Kintyre route.
Having spent part of a weekend in Bettws-y-coed exploring the Telfordian engineering of the A5, I can only agree (and he also rebuilt our local bridge).
Re the Irish Sea bridgoe, doesn't the glacial geology cause problems? Glaciated troughs, lots of postglacial sediments.
If you think allowing a law to prevent no-deal, losing the Premiership to Corbyn, and then getting an extension constitutes a plan, then please, please don't let me interrupt you...
The plan is to win a majority, and then deliver Brexit (or vice versa, though that's not happening now). All else is tactics.
Fair enough. Let me remind you of what your plans have been since Cameron left:
2016-08: We have a majority government. We intend to deliver Brexit by March 2019 2017-07: We have a Con-DUP pact. We intend to deliver Brexit by March 2019 2019-02: We have a Con minority. We intend to deliver Brexit by March 2019 2019-06: We have a Con minority. We intend to deliver Brexit by November 2019 2019-08: We can't win a House vote. We intend to deliver Brexit by November 2019 2019-11: We are in opposition. We intend to deliver Brexit when we are reelected with a majority
You aren't stupid. Tell me what this looks like.
It's the consequences of the pisspoor 2017 election campaign.
Well I'm looking forward to George Osborne's first conference speech as PM. Since the seemless transition from David Cameron in the summer Ozzy has come into his own, using the Conservative majority in parliament to his advantage.
Remember folks, if it wasn't for Labour Leave, this would have been reality.
A small price to pay for not leaving my European friends in the UK at the mercy of the Home Office.
It's not as if there are any other things needing money to be spent on them.
Scotland and Ulster are two of the poorest parts of the Uk - would boost both.
What a brilliant argument. I'm ashamed even to have raised the question of cost.
Imagine we had said the same about Brunels bridges- or the Chunnel.
Have some ambition.
It has absolutely zero business case, would be extremely difficult and expensive to build and would be a huge white elephant to maintain. It's bonkers.
However, there's no doubt it'd be politically powerful.
Wouldn't you expect a narcissist to want to build a bridge He tried one across the Thames. Not his finest hour if I remember
These are not questions that are mutually exclusive.
However agreeing is easier than disagreeing, at least for questions asked face-to-face. I'm not sure that there's any evidence at all that the wording of referenda have the same bias. (I think it's almost inconceivable that there would be sufficient evidence).
I'd suggest you revert to your friend, Leonardo, and ask him which textbook. I doubt he'll have familiarity with many, so it should be easy to narrow it down.
From the Shipman book.
Prior to referendum wording, polling conducted for Vote Leave suggested that a “Remain Member of the EU” Yes/No question elicited about 4 extra % points for Remain than “Remain/Leave”.
From my own conservations with other pollsters they also found similar things.
So what are the confidence bounds? You're just stating something that you want to believe. There simply cannot be any statistically significant evidence about referenda, and I'd suggest that its wildly unlikely that any pollster has even tried to assemble enough evidence to suggest that there's such a bias in polls.
I believe that there is some evidence about questions in general, and I'd be happy to agree that such behavior may well extend to polling etc. However the evidence that it does is non-existent.
Your 'conversations with pollsters' are not operating in some other universe where they're impossibly well informed, and you're impossibly well-equipped to judge.
If you think allowing a law to prevent no-deal, losing the Premiership to Corbyn, and then getting an extension constitutes a plan, then please, please don't let me interrupt you...
The plan is to win a majority, and then deliver Brexit (or vice versa, though that's not happening now). All else is tactics.
Ah, hello @Tissue_Price - are you in support of this extreme right caricature of a Conservative Party?
I would rather we hadn't reached this point - despite some issues with the WA it was a reasonable compromise that honoured the referendum. But I backed Boris on the basis that more-of-the-same wouldn't work, and I support his approach now. And it's not an extreme right administration.
Fair enough - thanks for the response, appreciate the perspective.
Will the election be respected ? Isn’t that a bit old fashioned?
No one has ever said an election shouldn't be "respected". It's those people who think a referendum result makes their MP a delegate and obliges them to vote as their constituency did.
Here's a clue - it doesn't.
Here's a clue. It should.
Here's another. They were elected by saying they would.
Here’s another they were elected to say they would with a deal
Actually no they weren't
Conservative party manifesto 2017:
Theresa May’s Conservatives will deliver • The best possible deal for Britain as we leave the European Union delivered by a smooth, orderly Brexit.
Heidi Allen and Anna Soubry both put on their personal election literature that they would respect the result of the referendum. Sarah Wollaston wrote that there must not be a second referendum. These are just the most obvious examples but there are plenty more.
One thing I'd add, having recently been on a short trip to Wigtown, near Stranraer: it takes an age to get from the M6 at Gretna to Stranraer, and that part of the M6 is a long way from the main potential traffic flows - there's a reason that Holyhead has traditionally been more popular (and why that great Scot Telford helped improve the route to it). It's much worse for the Kintyre route.
Having spent part of a weekend in Bettws-y-coed exploring the Telfordian engineering of the A5, I can only agree (and he also rebuilt our local bridge).
Re the Irish Sea bridgoe, doesn't the glacial geology cause problems? Glaciated troughs, lots of postglacial sediments.
As far as I'm aware those problems can be engineered against - at a cost. Modern civil engineering is amazing in what it can do. Again, at a cost.
Well I'm looking forward to George Osborne's first conference speech as PM. Since the seemless transition from David Cameron in the summer Ozzy has come into his own, using the Conservative majority in parliament to his advantage.
Remember folks, if it wasn't for Labour Leave, this would have been reality.
A small price to pay for not leaving my European friends in the UK at the mercy of the Home Office.
Then losing the premiership and a VONC by the beginning of November after extending, leading to a general election with Leavers flocking to the Tories and Remainers divided
What happens if that isn't enough and Boris fails to win a majority? Presumably if he fails his tenure as Conservative leader will also end.
IF the pro-Remain parties form the Government after a GE and revoke, what then for the Conservatives?
Most likely Raab becomes Tory leader on a straight No Deal Brexit, hard right platform to squeeze the Brexit Party vote further, the Tories will only go back to the Withdrawal Agreement if Boris wins a majority
Will the election be respected ? Isn’t that a bit old fashioned?
No one has ever said an election shouldn't be "respected". It's those people who think a referendum result makes their MP a delegate and obliges them to vote as their constituency did.
Here's a clue - it doesn't.
Here's a clue. It should.
Here's another. They were elected by saying they would.
Here’s another they were elected to say they would with a deal
Actually no they weren't
Conservative party manifesto 2017:
Theresa May’s Conservatives will deliver • The best possible deal for Britain as we leave the European Union delivered by a smooth, orderly Brexit.
Heidi Allen and Anna Soubry both put on their personal election literature that they would respect the result of the referendum. Sarah Wollaston wrote that there must not be a second referendum. These are just the most obvious examples but there are plenty more.
But you're ok with the 288 Conservative MPs elected on a Tory manifesto promising 'a smooth orderly exit' now supporting (an illegal) No Deal?
Well I'm looking forward to George Osborne's first conference speech as PM. Since the seemless transition from David Cameron in the summer Ozzy has come into his own, using the Conservative majority in parliament to his advantage.
Remember folks, if it wasn't for Labour Leave, this would have been reality.
I think Osborne might have lost the next general election in that scenario, or at least failed to win a Tory majority, he lacks the charisma of Boris and is more disliked than Cameron was and Farage would also have been polling strongly
Will the election be respected ? Isn’t that a bit old fashioned?
No one has ever said an election shouldn't be "respected". It's those people who think a referendum result makes their MP a delegate and obliges them to vote as their constituency did.
Here's a clue - it doesn't.
Here's a clue. It should.
Here's another. They were elected by saying they would.
Here’s another they were elected to say they would with a deal
Actually no they weren't
Conservative party manifesto 2017:
Theresa May’s Conservatives will deliver • The best possible deal for Britain as we leave the European Union delivered by a smooth, orderly Brexit.
Heidi Allen and Anna Soubry both put on their personal election literature that they would respect the result of the referendum. Sarah Wollaston wrote that there must not be a second referendum. These are just the most obvious examples but there are plenty more.
That would be the referendum before which we were promised by the Leave campaign that we would leave with a deal?
Will the election be respected ? Isn’t that a bit old fashioned?
No one has ever said an election shouldn't be "respected". It's those people who think a referendum result makes their MP a delegate and obliges them to vote as their constituency did.
Here's a clue - it doesn't.
Here's a clue. It should.
Here's another. They were elected by saying they would.
Here’s another they were elected to say they would with a deal
Actually no they weren't
Conservative party manifesto 2017:
Theresa May’s Conservatives will deliver • The best possible deal for Britain as we leave the European Union delivered by a smooth, orderly Brexit.
Heidi Allen and Anna Soubry both put on their personal election literature that they would respect the result of the referendum. Sarah Wollaston wrote that there must not be a second referendum. These are just the most obvious examples but there are plenty more.
But you're ok with the 288 Conservative MPs elected on a Tory manifesto promising 'a smooth orderly exit' now supporting No Deal?
The vote was to Leave. In the absence of a deal they are at least fulfilling the mandate of the referendum even if I wish it were in another form.
Well I'm looking forward to George Osborne's first conference speech as PM. Since the seemless transition from David Cameron in the summer Ozzy has come into his own, using the Conservative majority in parliament to his advantage.
Remember folks, if it wasn't for Labour Leave, this would have been reality.
I think Osborne might have lost the next general election in that scenario, or at least failed to win a Tory majority, he lacks the charisma of Boris and is more disliked than Cameron was and Farage would also have been polling strongly
Will the election be respected ? Isn’t that a bit old fashioned?
No one has ever said an election shouldn't be "respected". It's those people who think a referendum result makes their MP a delegate and obliges them to vote as their constituency did.
Here's a clue - it doesn't.
Here's a clue. It should.
Here's another. They were elected by saying they would.
Here’s another they were elected to say they would with a deal
Actually no they weren't
Conservative party manifesto 2017:
Theresa May’s Conservatives will deliver • The best possible deal for Britain as we leave the European Union delivered by a smooth, orderly Brexit.
Heidi Allen and Anna Soubry both put on their personal election literature that they would respect the result of the referendum. Sarah Wollaston wrote that there must not be a second referendum. These are just the most obvious examples but there are plenty more.
That would be the referendum before which we were promised by the Leave campaign that we would leave with a deal?
We would if all those who voted for Article 50 had voted for the Deal. The MPs have betrayed the people they were elected to serve.
One thing I'd add, having recently been on a short trip to Wigtown, near Stranraer: it takes an age to get from the M6 at Gretna to Stranraer, and that part of the M6 is a long way from the main potential traffic flows - there's a reason that Holyhead has traditionally been more popular (and why that great Scot Telford helped improve the route to it). It's much worse for the Kintyre route.
Having spent part of a weekend in Bettws-y-coed exploring the Telfordian engineering of the A5, I can only agree (and he also rebuilt our local bridge).
Re the Irish Sea bridgoe, doesn't the glacial geology cause problems? Glaciated troughs, lots of postglacial sediments.
As far as I'm aware those problems can be engineered against - at a cost. Modern civil engineering is amazing in what it can do. Again, at a cost.
At the end of the day, it becomes a political issue.
Ah! Thank you. That's very interesting - could well be the solution. I had been wondering how they would protect against the 30-bar overpressures from 300m depth water.
Fascinating to see it was Reed the naval architect who thought of it (the chap who had a very hard tine because he refused to support the media campaign for HMS Captain which promptly turned turtle ...).
Will the election be respected ? Isn’t that a bit old fashioned?
No one has ever said an election shouldn't be "respected". It's those people who think a referendum result makes their MP a delegate and obliges them to vote as their constituency did.
Here's a clue - it doesn't.
Here's a clue. It should.
Here's another. They were elected by saying they would.
Here’s another they were elected to say they would with a deal
Actually no they weren't
Conservative party manifesto 2017:
Theresa May’s Conservatives will deliver • The best possible deal for Britain as we leave the European Union delivered by a smooth, orderly Brexit.
Heidi Allen and Anna Soubry both put on their personal election literature that they would respect the result of the referendum. Sarah Wollaston wrote that there must not be a second referendum. These are just the most obvious examples but there are plenty more.
But you're ok with the 288 Conservative MPs elected on a Tory manifesto promising 'a smooth orderly exit' now supporting (an illegal) No Deal?
It is not illegal and we are only in that situation because the scum in Parliament broke their promises and did not support the deal.
Will the election be respected ? Isn’t that a bit old fashioned?
No one has ever said an election shouldn't be "respected". It's those people who think a referendum result makes their MP a delegate and obliges them to vote as their constituency did.
Here's a clue - it doesn't.
Here's a clue. It should.
Here's another. They were elected by saying they would.
Here’s another they were elected to say they would with a deal
Actually no they weren't
Conservative party manifesto 2017:
Theresa May’s Conservatives will deliver • The best possible deal for Britain as we leave the European Union delivered by a smooth, orderly Brexit.
Heidi Allen and Anna Soubry both put on their personal election literature that they would respect the result of the referendum. Sarah Wollaston wrote that there must not be a second referendum. These are just the most obvious examples but there are plenty more.
But you're ok with the 288 Conservative MPs elected on a Tory manifesto promising 'a smooth orderly exit' now supporting (an illegal) No Deal?
It is not illegal and we are only in that situation because the scum in Parliament broke their promises and did not support the deal.
Dear oh dear! Did Lab, LD, SNP or PC MPs ever promise to support a deal like May's?
Ah! Thank you. That's very interesting - could well be the solution. I had been wondering how they would protect against the 30-bar overpressures from 300m depth water.
Fascinating to see it was Reed the naval architect who thought of it (the chap who had a very hard tine because he refused to support the media campaign for HMS Captain which promptly turned turtle ...).
HMS Captain was a classic example of public opinion and domineering characters overturning experts, and ending in disaster.
It does make me wonder if Brexit is the HMS Captain of the 2010s. At least Coles did the decent ting and went down with the ship ...
Will the election be respected ? Isn’t that a bit old fashioned?
No one has ever said an election shouldn't be "respected". It's those people who think a referendum result makes their MP a delegate and obliges them to vote as their constituency did.
Here's a clue - it doesn't.
Here's a clue. It should.
Here's another. They were elected by saying they would.
Here’s another they were elected to say they would with a deal
Actually no they weren't
Conservative party manifesto 2017:
Theresa May’s Conservatives will deliver • The best possible deal for Britain as we leave the European Union delivered by a smooth, orderly Brexit.
Heidi Allen and Anna Soubry both put on their personal election literature that they would respect the result of the referendum. Sarah Wollaston wrote that there must not be a second referendum. These are just the most obvious examples but there are plenty more.
But you're ok with the 288 Conservative MPs elected on a Tory manifesto promising 'a smooth orderly exit' now supporting No Deal?
The vote was to Leave. In the absence of a deal they are at least fulfilling the mandate of the referendum even if I wish it were in another form.
I was previously of the view that the ballot paper just said leave so it was legitimate to leave deal or no deal. Madness but legitimate.
Having seen now the two pledges in the manifestos I think it is legitimate for MPs to frustrate a no deal brexit. Both parties clearly campaigned either for a deal or an orderly exit.
Comments
Ken Clarke: it’s the most rightwing cabinet in living memory.
TIssue Price?
I daresay there are lots of politics- and Brexit-related names you could choose.
2016-08: We have a majority government. We intend to deliver Brexit by March 2019
2017-07: We have a Con-DUP pact. We intend to deliver Brexit by March 2019
2019-02: We have a Con minority. We intend to deliver Brexit by March 2019
2019-06: We have a Con minority. We intend to deliver Brexit by November 2019
2019-08: We can't win a House vote. We intend to deliver Brexit by November 2019
2019-11: We are in opposition. We intend to deliver Brexit when we are reelected with a majority
You aren't stupid. Tell me what this looks like.
Re the Irish Sea bridgoe, doesn't the glacial geology cause problems? Glaciated troughs, lots of postglacial sediments.
Everything will be back to normal by next summer.
Wouldn't you expect a narcissist to want to build a bridge He tried one across the Thames. Not his finest hour if I remember
Next GE - Pudsey (Con Maj 331, Stuart Andrew MP)
Con 4/6
Lab 11/10
LD 50/1
(Shadsy)
I believe that there is some evidence about questions in general, and I'd be happy to agree that such behavior may well extend to polling etc. However the evidence that it does is non-existent.
Your 'conversations with pollsters' are not operating in some other universe where they're impossibly well informed, and you're impossibly well-equipped to judge.
(I disagree of course
But that doesn’t fit the narrative
...it doesn't seem quite so far-fetched this evening, does it?
When I was at Uni, one of my lecturers worked on the Medway and Conwy submerged tube tunnels. Now, people are going further and suggesting floating submerged tube tunnels ...
https://www.intelligenttransport.com/transport-articles/75927/norway-floating-submerged-bridge/
At the end of the day, it becomes a political issue.
7 ward branches for reselection
1 tied
2 to vote on Thursday
He needed over 2/3 of branches.
NEW THREAD
Fascinating to see it was Reed the naval architect who thought of it (the chap who had a very hard tine because he refused to support the media campaign for HMS Captain which promptly turned turtle ...).
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossvalueaddedgva/bulletins/regionalgrossvalueaddedbalanceduk/1998to2017
It does make me wonder if Brexit is the HMS Captain of the 2010s. At least Coles did the decent ting and went down with the ship ...
Having seen now the two pledges in the manifestos I think it is legitimate for MPs to frustrate a no deal brexit. Both parties clearly campaigned either for a deal or an orderly exit.
No deal is neither.