Bozo could bring back any deal and the fawning right wing press would call it a victory.
For this reason I’m much more positive about a deal than for many months . The right wing anti EU press need him to succeed .
He was their chosen one !
And I think there would be massive pressure on MPs to support that .
The deal is already there. Drop the current backstop. Create a NI only Backstop. Give it a new name. Watch out for Arlene ! That's it really. ...and then watch it be defeated in the HoC.
Corrected for you.
Any deal would enrage Farage. He would get 15% in the election and countless Tories would lose their seats to the Lib Dems.
Completely inappropriate to refer to convictions which under English law would be spent years ago under the ROOA 1974. Harriet Harman would be among the objectors if the same were done about someone she was more sympathetic to.
As some of you know my wife and I leave on a round trip cruise from Southampton to Nova Scotia, New England and New York on Saturday and return on Tuesday 8th October. This is my dear wife's 80th birthday present fulfilling a dream we have both shared since the the early 1960's. When I booked it as a surprise present 18 months ago little did we think we would be leaving our shores only to return approx 4 weeks later to a UK that has totally lost it's way.
I have decided to prorogued myself from this wonderful forum (unless something earth shattering happens) but before I go I would just like to make one or two comments.
I utterly reject Boris nee Cummings prorogation of the HOC which acted as a catalyst for the opposition and I have no idea why anyone thinks Cummings is any good and certainly he has been a disaster so far.
I also condemn Boris nee Cummings sacking of 21 good conservative mps prompting my resignation from the party and demonstrating just how clueless they both are
I also condemn Corbyn and others for running scared of a GE
I accept there are strong feelings from leavers and remainers and there must be a considerable number like me seeking a compromise. I have always wanted that to happen hence why I backed TM deal. Listening again to Stephen Kinnock this lunchtime he seems confident that, with moderate conservative and many of his labour colleagues the 'Kinnock' amendment may well go through in Mid October
Now I have no idea if this is the case and plenty will say that is 'for the birds', but as we cruise across the Atlantic and back I just want to say that I hope everyone continues their vigorous debate, which is the strength of this forum, but those who feel their case is strengthened with rather colourful and hyperbolic descriptions, it really is not
I look forward to contributing as and when I can and wish all sides and none an interesting continuing political debate
Have a great trip. I am sure Brexit will have all been sorted out by the time you return.
Bozo could bring back any deal and the fawning right wing press would call it a victory.
For this reason I’m much more positive about a deal than for many months . The right wing anti EU press need him to succeed .
He was their chosen one !
And I think there would be massive pressure on MPs to support that .
The deal is already there. Drop the current backstop. Create a NI only Backstop. Give it a new name. Watch out for Arlene ! That's it really. ...and then watch it be defeated in the HoC.
Corrected for you.
Any deal would enrage Farage. He would get 15% in the election and countless Tories would lose their seats to the Lib Dems.
If we remain in the EU we have to do it in a way that our relationships in the EU are better than they were before and there isn't so much negativity about all the little stupidities that the EU loves to dabble in. To enjoy the benefits of the EU you need to be in the EU, not half in and half out. Join the Euro, Schengen and be full in to change our perception of the EU. It is also the only way to prevent a future easy exit (as the currency issue would make it almost impossible to leave.
That leaves EFTA / EAA / Deal as the only other options, all of which I would consider to better than the idiocy of revoke and return to the mish mash of part in and part out.
You're assuming that Revoke is a final destination. It wouldn't be, for the reasons you outline, and a good chunk of Brexiteers will adopt the same logic as you to conclude that we might as well go all the way in. People like Andrew Lilico were already making this argument when they thought Remain had won in 2016.
No, I'm saying Revoke can not be a final and settled conclusion. It is a fairly short path to Leave without a deal in the future or full membership.
If we remain in the EU we have to do it in a way that our relationships in the EU are better than they were before and there isn't so much negativity about all the little stupidities that the EU loves to dabble in. To enjoy the benefits of the EU you need to be in the EU, not half in and half out. Join the Euro, Schengen and be full in to change our perception of the EU. It is also the only way to prevent a future easy exit (as the currency issue would make it almost impossible to leave.
That leaves EFTA / EAA / Deal as the only other options, all of which I would consider to better than the idiocy of revoke and return to the mish mash of part in and part out.
You're assuming that Revoke is a final destination. It wouldn't be, for the reasons you outline, and a good chunk of Brexiteers will adopt the same logic as you to conclude that we might as well go all the way in. People like Andrew Lilico were already making this argument when they thought Remain had won in 2016.
No, I'm saying Revoke can not be a final and settled conclusion. It is a fairly short path to Leave without a deal in the future of full membership.
Neither can EFTA/EEA/(Soft) Deal. They have even worse deficiencies than the current status.
As some of you know my wife and I leave on a round trip cruise from Southampton to Nova Scotia, New England and New York on Saturday and return on Tuesday 8th October. This is my dear wife's 80th birthday present fulfilling a dream we have both shared since the the early 1960's. When I booked it as a surprise present 18 months ago little did we think we would be leaving our shores only to return approx 4 weeks later to a UK that has totally lost it's way.
I have decided to prorogued myself from this wonderful forum (unless something earth shattering happens) but before I go I would just like to make one or two comments.
I utterly reject Boris nee Cummings prorogation of the HOC which acted as a catalyst for the opposition and I have no idea why anyone thinks Cummings is any good and certainly he has been a disaster so far.
I also condemn Boris nee Cummings sacking of 21 good conservative mps prompting my resignation from the party and demonstrating just how clueless they both are
I also condemn Corbyn and others for running scared of a GE
I accept there are strong feelings from leavers and remainers and there must be a considerable number like me seeking a compromise. I have always wanted that to happen hence why I backed TM deal. Listening again to Stephen Kinnock this lunchtime he seems confident that, with moderate conservative and many of his labour colleagues the 'Kinnock' amendment may well go through in Mid October
Now I have no idea if this is the case and plenty will say that is 'for the birds', but as we cruise across the Atlantic and back I just want to say that I hope everyone continues their vigorous debate, which is the strength of this forum, but those who feel their case is strengthened with rather colourful and hyperbolic descriptions, it really is not
I look forward to contributing as and when I can and wish all sides and none an interesting continuing political debate
Have a great trip. I am sure Brexit will have all been sorted out by the time you return.
Arrh, the mythical better deal, which they will then recommend we vote against.
Labour will presumably arrive at their idea of a deal get provisional approval from the EU and then put in their manifesto a promise to call a referendum to approve their deal or Remain. No recommendation necessary
Labour successfully pulled the wool over the eyes of Leavers in 2017 or at least enough of them to deprive T May of her majority - that is not going to be the case this time if they back an unpopular second referendum which no doubt the two Leave parties will constantly focus on in the election campaign. I'd suggest it's absolutely in their interests to get a deal done before 31/10 thereby negating Brexit as an election issue as they managed successfully to do in 2017.
If we remain in the EU we have to do it in a way that our relationships in the EU are better than they were before and there isn't so much negativity about all the little stupidities that the EU loves to dabble in. To enjoy the benefits of the EU you need to be in the EU, not half in and half out. Join the Euro, Schengen and be full in to change our perception of the EU. It is also the only way to prevent a future easy exit (as the currency issue would make it almost impossible to leave.
That leaves EFTA / EAA / Deal as the only other options, all of which I would consider to better than the idiocy of revoke and return to the mish mash of part in and part out.
You're assuming that Revoke is a final destination. It wouldn't be, for the reasons you outline, and a good chunk of Brexiteers will adopt the same logic as you to conclude that we might as well go all the way in. People like Andrew Lilico were already making this argument when they thought Remain had won in 2016.
No, I'm saying Revoke can not be a final and settled conclusion. It is a fairly short path to Leave without a deal in the future of full membership.
Neither can EFTA/EEA/(Soft) Deal. They have even worse deficiencies than the current status.
As some of you know my wife and I leave on a round trip cruise from Southampton to Nova Scotia, New England and New York on Saturday and return on Tuesday 8th October. This is my dear wife's 80th birthday present fulfilling a dream we have both shared since the the early 1960's. When I booked it as a surprise present 18 months ago little did we think we would be leaving our shores only to return approx 4 weeks later to a UK that has totally lost it's way.
I have decided to prorogued myself from this wonderful forum (unless something earth shattering happens) but before I go I would just like to make one or two comments.
I utterly reject Boris nee Cummings prorogation of the HOC which acted as a catalyst for the opposition and I have no idea why anyone thinks Cummings is any good and certainly he has been a disaster so far.
I also condemn Boris nee Cummings sacking of 21 good conservative mps prompting my resignation from the party and demonstrating just how clueless they both are
I also condemn Corbyn and others for running scared of a GE
I accept there are strong feelings from leavers and remainers and there must be a considerable number like me seeking a compromise. I have always wanted that to happen hence why I backed TM deal. Listening again to Stephen Kinnock this lunchtime he seems confident that, with moderate conservative and many of his labour colleagues the 'Kinnock' amendment may well go through in Mid October
Now I have no idea if this is the case and plenty will say that is 'for the birds', but as we cruise across the Atlantic and back I just want to say that I hope everyone continues their vigorous debate, which is the strength of this forum, but those who feel their case is strengthened with rather colourful and hyperbolic descriptions, it really is not
I look forward to contributing as and when I can and wish all sides and none an interesting continuing political debate
Bon voyage. Have a great trip.
Indeed Mr G. I hope you both enjoy yourselves, and find yourselves thoroughly spoiled as a result of your wife's birthday. Is it during the cruise?
No. Shortly after we return but we are really looking forward to it
As some of you know my wife and I leave on a round trip cruise from Southampton to Nova Scotia, New England and New York on Saturday and return on Tuesday 8th October. This is my dear wife's 80th birthday present fulfilling a dream we have both shared since the the early 1960's. When I booked it as a surprise present 18 months ago little did we think we would be leaving our shores only to return approx 4 weeks later to a UK that has totally lost it's way.
I have decided to prorogued myself from this wonderful forum (unless something earth shattering happens) but before I go I would just like to make one or two comments.
I utterly reject Boris nee Cummings prorogation of the HOC which acted as a catalyst for the opposition and I have no idea why anyone thinks Cummings is any good and certainly he has been a disaster so far.
I also condemn Boris nee Cummings sacking of 21 good conservative mps prompting my resignation from the party and demonstrating just how clueless they both are
I also condemn Corbyn and others for running scared of a GE
I accept there are strong feelings from leavers and remainers and there must be a considerable number like me seeking a compromise. I have always wanted that to happen hence why I backed TM deal. Listening again to Stephen Kinnock this lunchtime he seems confident that, with moderate conservative and many of his labour colleagues the 'Kinnock' amendment may well go through in Mid October
Now I have no idea if this is the case and plenty will say that is 'for the birds', but as we cruise across the Atlantic and back I just want to say that I hope everyone continues their vigorous debate, which is the strength of this forum, but those who feel their case is strengthened with rather colourful and hyperbolic descriptions, it really is not
I look forward to contributing as and when I can and wish all sides and none an interesting continuing political debate
If it takes you a week to get there and a week to get back wont you only see land for four days? Buon viaggio!
5 days at sea each way leaving 14 days in North America and thank you
The right wing press slating Bercow because he bent a few conventions , of course ignoring the fact that the government under May tried every trick to stop proper scrutiny and for MPs to have no say in what type of deal was agreed.
May acted as if she had a huge majority after 2017 , all Bercow did was allow MPs the chance to debate and vote on crucial issues .
If the government had a big majority and could keep its MPs loyal then its irrelevant what Bercow did .
No ones saying Bercow is some saint but he was there at a crucial time and enabled MPs a voice .
He’s being attacked by many of the Leave side for strengthening parliamentary sovereignty , allegedly this is why many wanted to leave the EU .
The more time goes on the more we see that the sovereignty arguments for Brexit are just a sham .
As some of you know my wife and I leave on a round trip cruise from Southampton to Nova Scotia, New England and New York on Saturday and return on Tuesday 8th October. This is my dear wife's 80th birthday present fulfilling a dream we have both shared since the the early 1960's. When I booked it as a surprise present 18 months ago little did we think we would be leaving our shores only to return approx 4 weeks later to a UK that has totally lost it's way.
I have decided to prorogued myself from this wonderful forum (unless something earth shattering happens) but before I go I would just like to make one or two comments.
I utterly reject Boris nee Cummings prorogation of the HOC which acted as a catalyst for the opposition and I have no idea why anyone thinks Cummings is any good and certainly he has been a disaster so far.
I also condemn Boris nee Cummings sacking of 21 good conservative mps prompting my resignation from the party and demonstrating just how clueless they both are
I also condemn Corbyn and others for running scared of a GE
I accept there are strong feelings from leavers and remainers and there must be a considerable number like me seeking a compromise. I have always wanted that to happen hence why I backed TM deal. Listening again to Stephen Kinnock this lunchtime he seems confident that, with moderate conservative and many of his labour colleagues the 'Kinnock' amendment may well go through in Mid October
Now I have no idea if this is the case and plenty will say that is 'for the birds', but as we cruise across the Atlantic and back I just want to say that I hope everyone continues their vigorous debate, which is the strength of this forum, but those who feel their case is strengthened with rather colourful and hyperbolic descriptions, it really is not
I look forward to contributing as and when I can and wish all sides and none an interesting continuing political debate
Have a wonderful time!
Thanks Cyclefree and I hope to be able to read your comments as I do with great interest
If we remain in the EU we have to do it in a way that our relationships in the EU are better than they were before and there isn't so much negativity about all the little stupidities that the EU loves to dabble in. To enjoy the benefits of the EU you need to be in the EU, not half in and half out. Join the Euro, Schengen and be full in to change our perception of the EU. It is also the only way to prevent a future easy exit (as the currency issue would make it almost impossible to leave.
That leaves EFTA / EAA / Deal as the only other options, all of which I would consider to better than the idiocy of revoke and return to the mish mash of part in and part out.
You're assuming that Revoke is a final destination. It wouldn't be, for the reasons you outline, and a good chunk of Brexiteers will adopt the same logic as you to conclude that we might as well go all the way in. People like Andrew Lilico were already making this argument when they thought Remain had won in 2016.
No, I'm saying Revoke can not be a final and settled conclusion. It is a fairly short path to Leave without a deal in the future of full membership.
Neither can EFTA/EEA/(Soft) Deal. They have even worse deficiencies than the current status.
They are most likely a route to completely out.
I don't think the question of the medium-term relationship can be separated from the question of the future of the UK. If Brexit leads to Scottish independence, and bits of the UK start rejoining without opt-outs, it makes it more likely the whole of the former UK will end up fully in the EU. That being the case, do we really want to waste a decade doing it the hard way, when we could just revoke and then come to terms with the implications of the failure of Brexit.
Finally some polling that confirms my personal perception that leaving is pretty popular in my bit of the south, and not especially something that working class people are more keen on than middle class ones.
It was never really clear what Bolton was doing there, as a neocon throwback. Though he and Trump both believe in American exceptionalism, Bolton was far more hawkish. Trump is more of a dove with no desire for war. I wonder if this Israel annexation business was the last straw. I guess the tweeter-in-chief will tell us over the next couple of days.
The right wing press slating Bercow because he bent a few conventions , of course ignoring the fact that the government under May tried every trick to stop proper scrutiny and for MPs to have no say in what type of deal was agreed.
May acted as if she had a huge majority after 2017 , all Bercow did was allow MPs the chance to debate and vote on crucial issues .
If the government had a big majority and could keep its MPs loyal then its irrelevant what Bercow did .
No ones saying Bercow is some saint but he was there at a crucial time and enabled MPs a voice .
He’s being attacked by many of the Leave side for strengthening parliamentary sovereignty , allegedly this is why many wanted to leave the EU .
The more time goes on the more we see that the sovereignty arguments for Brexit are just a sham .
All the "arguments" in favour of Brexit are a sham. It is a belief set based on emotion and emotion only. It is not even equivalent of belief in God, more of a belief in fairies or Father Christmas.
As some of you know my wife and I leave on a round trip cruise from Southampton to Nova Scotia, New England and New York on Saturday and return on Tuesday 8th October. This is my dear wife's 80th birthday present fulfilling a dream we have both shared since the the early 1960's. When I booked it as a surprise present 18 months ago little did we think we would be leaving our shores only to return approx 4 weeks later to a UK that has totally lost it's way.
I have decided to prorogued myself from this wonderful forum (unless something earth shattering happens) but before I go I would just like to make one or two comments.
I utterly reject Boris nee Cummings prorogation of the HOC which acted as a catalyst for the opposition and I have no idea why anyone thinks Cummings is any good and certainly he has been a disaster so far.
I also condemn Boris nee Cummings sacking of 21 good conservative mps prompting my resignation from the party and demonstrating just how clueless they both are
I also condemn Corbyn and others for running scared of a GE
I accept there are strong feelings from leavers and remainers and there must be a considerable number like me seeking a compromise. I have always wanted that to happen hence why I backed TM deal. Listening again to Stephen Kinnock this lunchtime he seems confident that, with moderate conservative and many of his labour colleagues the 'Kinnock' amendment may well go through in Mid October
Now I have no idea if this is the case and plenty will say that is 'for the birds', but as we cruise across the Atlantic and back I just want to say that I hope everyone continues their vigorous debate, which is the strength of this forum, but those who feel their case is strengthened with rather colourful and hyperbolic descriptions, it really is not
I look forward to contributing as and when I can and wish all sides and none an interesting continuing political debate
Have a great trip. I am sure Brexit will have all been sorted out by the time you return.
Finally some polling that confirms my personal perception that leaving is pretty popular in my bit of the south, and not especially something that working class people are more keen on than middle class ones.
Finally some polling that confirms my personal perception that leaving is pretty popular in my bit of the south, and not especially something that working class people are more keen on than middle class ones.
Brexit is popular. I'd expect Leave to win any second referendum. Question is, will Brexit still be popular after the fact? There's a reason Boris wanted the election first.
The right wing press slating Bercow because he bent a few conventions , of course ignoring the fact that the government under May tried every trick to stop proper scrutiny and for MPs to have no say in what type of deal was agreed.
May acted as if she had a huge majority after 2017 , all Bercow did was allow MPs the chance to debate and vote on crucial issues .
If the government had a big majority and could keep its MPs loyal then its irrelevant what Bercow did .
No ones saying Bercow is some saint but he was there at a crucial time and enabled MPs a voice .
He’s being attacked by many of the Leave side for strengthening parliamentary sovereignty , allegedly this is why many wanted to leave the EU .
The more time goes on the more we see that the sovereignty arguments for Brexit are just a sham .
All the "arguments" in favour of Brexit are a sham. It is a belief set based on emotion and emotion only. It is not even equivalent of belief in God, more of a belief in fairies or Father Christmas.
Except that fairies and Father Christmas are nice things to believe in.
Confirmation that for his faults Trump is no neoconservative warmongerer
Trump is not anything but for himself and his business empire. Bolton was out to start wars. I think a Trump - Rouhani meeting will take place now. Pompeo seems to have changed as he realizes his master wants a legacy.
As some of you know my wife and I leave on a round trip cruise from Southampton to Nova Scotia, New England and New York on Saturday and return on Tuesday 8th October. This is my dear wife's 80th birthday present fulfilling a dream we have both shared since the the early 1960's. When I booked it as a surprise present 18 months ago little did we think we would be leaving our shores only to return approx 4 weeks later to a UK that has totally lost it's way.
I have decided to prorogued myself from this wonderful forum (unless something earth shattering happens) but before I go I would just like to make one or two comments.
I utterly reject Boris nee Cummings prorogation of the HOC which acted as a catalyst for the opposition and I have no idea why anyone thinks Cummings is any good and certainly he has been a disaster so far.
I also condemn Boris nee Cummings sacking of 21 good conservative mps prompting my resignation from the party and demonstrating just how clueless they both are
I also condemn Corbyn and others for running scared of a GE
I accept there are strong feelings from leavers and remainers and there must be a considerable number like me seeking a compromise. I have always wanted that to happen hence why I backed TM deal. Listening again to Stephen Kinnock this lunchtime he seems confident that, with moderate conservative and many of his labour colleagues the 'Kinnock' amendment may well go through in Mid October
Now I have no idea if this is the case and plenty will say that is 'for the birds', but as we cruise across the Atlantic and back I just want to say that I hope everyone continues their vigorous debate, which is the strength of this forum, but those who feel their case is strengthened with rather colourful and hyperbolic descriptions, it really is not
I look forward to contributing as and when I can and wish all sides and none an interesting continuing political debate
Have a great time BG! We've just got back from Nova Scotia and it's very beautiful. Assuming you're docking in Halifax I'd recommend an excursion to Peggy's Cove.
Finally some polling that confirms my personal perception that leaving is pretty popular in my bit of the south, and not especially something that working class people are more keen on than middle class ones.
So why all this bullshit about Labour Northern heartlands. They don't exist.
They never did. It's an artefact of first past the post and demographics. Class, income and occupation are way more important than degrees of latitude.
Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan", despite all the diversions thrown to convince us that there was one. Hence:
1. Nothing will happen until late in the day of 19th October.
2. At that point, Johnson will meet with her Maj, say that as the Government cannot command a majority in the Commons, and as he is not as he says prepared to invite the EU keep the UK in the EU on whatever terms it likes, then his Government cannot continue in office and he will cease to be PM with immediate effect.
3. Johnson will make it known that he made no recommendation to the Queen as to whom should succeed him.
4. The Queen nonetheless will send for Corbyn (as she surely must, unlike Bercow she I think respects constitutional precedent).
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
6. The next parliamentary day (Monday 21st), Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, which will fall, Corbyn having served his very short lived purpose by serving the notice over the weekend.
7. No other government will be formed within the 14 day period which can command a majority and we will face a GE in late October or early November.
I am not going to predict which party or coalition of parties will win that election, but I think this simple course will give Johnson and the Conservatives their best chance.
If we remain in the EU we have to do it in a way that our relationships in the EU are better than they were before and there isn't so much negativity about all the little stupidities that the EU loves to dabble in. To enjoy the benefits of the EU you need to be in the EU, not half in and half out. Join the Euro, Schengen and be full in to change our perception of the EU. It is also the only way to prevent a future easy exit (as the currency issue would make it almost impossible to leave.
That leaves EFTA / EAA / Deal as the only other options, all of which I would consider to better than the idiocy of revoke and return to the mish mash of part in and part out.
You're assuming that Revoke is a final destination. It wouldn't be, for the reasons you outline, and a good chunk of Brexiteers will adopt the same logic as you to conclude that we might as well go all the way in. People like Andrew Lilico were already making this argument when they thought Remain had won in 2016.
No, I'm saying Revoke can not be a final and settled conclusion. It is a fairly short path to Leave without a deal in the future of full membership.
Neither can EFTA/EEA/(Soft) Deal. They have even worse deficiencies than the current status.
They are most likely a route to completely out.
I don't think the question of the medium-term relationship can be separated from the question of the future of the UK. If Brexit leads to Scottish independence, and bits of the UK start rejoining without opt-outs, it makes it more likely the whole of the former UK will end up fully in the EU. That being the case, do we really want to waste a decade doing it the hard way, when we could just revoke and then come to terms with the implications of the failure of Brexit.
Latest Scotland poll has it 51% No to Scottish independence and of course England was 53.38% Leave compared to 51.89% Leave for the UK so if Scotland left the UK that makes reversing Brexit less likely
If we remain in the EU we have to do it in a way that our relationships in the EU are better than they were before and there isn't so much negativity about all the little stupidities that the EU loves to dabble in. To enjoy the benefits of the EU you need to be in the EU, not half in and half out. Join the Euro, Schengen and be full in to change our perception of the EU. It is also the only way to prevent a future easy exit (as the currency issue would make it almost impossible to leave.
That leaves EFTA / EAA / Deal as the only other options, all of which I would consider to better than the idiocy of revoke and return to the mish mash of part in and part out.
You're assuming that Revoke is a final destination. It wouldn't be, for the reasons you outline, and a good chunk of Brexiteers will adopt the same logic as you to conclude that we might as well go all the way in. People like Andrew Lilico were already making this argument when they thought Remain had won in 2016.
No, I'm saying Revoke can not be a final and settled conclusion. It is a fairly short path to Leave without a deal in the future of full membership.
Neither can EFTA/EEA/(Soft) Deal. They have even worse deficiencies than the current status.
They are most likely a route to completely out.
I don't think the question of the medium-term relationship can be separated from the question of the future of the UK. If Brexit leads to Scottish independence, and bits of the UK start rejoining without opt-outs, it makes it more likely the whole of the former UK will end up fully in the EU. That being the case, do we really want to waste a decade doing it the hard way, when we could just revoke and then come to terms with the implications of the failure of Brexit.
Latest Scotland poll has it 51% No to Scottish independence and of course England was 53% Leave compared to 52% Leave for the UK so if Scotland left the UK that makes reversing Brexit less likely
Your political analysis is only ever based on looking in the rear-view mirror via polls, never on looking at the structural factors that will drive public opinion in the future.
Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan", despite all the diversions thrown to convince us that there was one. Hence:
1. Nothing will happen until late in the day of 19th October.
2. At that point, Johnson will meet with her Maj, say that as the Government cannot command a majority in the Commons, and as he is not as he says prepared to invite the EU keep the UK in the EU on whatever terms it likes, then his Government cannot continue in office and he will cease to be PM with immediate effect.
3. Johnson will make it known that he made no recommendation to the Queen as to whom should succeed him.
4. The Queen nonetheless will send for Corbyn (as she surely must, unlike Bercow she I think respects constitutional precedent).
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
6. The next parliamentary day (Monday 21st), Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, which will fall, Corbyn having served his very short lived purpose by serving the notice over the weekend.
7. No other government will be formed within the 14 day period which can command a majority and we will face a GE in late October or early November.
I am not going to predict which party or coalition of parties will win that election, but I think this simple course will give Johnson and the Conservatives their best chance.
When you say "Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, which will fall," do you mean the vote of no confidence will succeed? It's a bit confusing.
Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan", despite all the diversions thrown to convince us that there was one. Hence:
1. Nothing will happen until late in the day of 19th October.
2. At that point, Johnson will meet with her Maj, say that as the Government cannot command a majority in the Commons, and as he is not as he says prepared to invite the EU keep the UK in the EU on whatever terms it likes, then his Government cannot continue in office and he will cease to be PM with immediate effect.
3. Johnson will make it known that he made no recommendation to the Queen as to whom should succeed him.
4. The Queen nonetheless will send for Corbyn (as she surely must, unlike Bercow she I think respects constitutional precedent).
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
6. The next parliamentary day (Monday 21st), Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, which will fall, Corbyn having served his very short lived purpose by serving the notice over the weekend.
7. No other government will be formed within the 14 day period which can command a majority and we will face a GE in late October or early November.
I am not going to predict which party or coalition of parties will win that election, but I think this simple course will give Johnson and the Conservatives their best chance.
That does seem plausible. Boris needs Corbyn to do the deed in order to fight the election as champion of the people against the establishment, which is harder if you are prime minister as well as being posher than the Queen.
As some of you know my wife and I leave on a round trip cruise from Southampton to Nova Scotia, New England and New York on Saturday and return on Tuesday 8th October. This is my dear wife's 80th birthday present fulfilling a dream we have both shared since the the early 1960's. When I booked it as a surprise present 18 months ago little did we think we would be leaving our shores only to return approx 4 weeks later to a UK that has totally lost it's way.
I have decided to prorogued myself from this wonderful forum (unless something earth shattering happens) but before I go I would just like to make one or two comments.
I utterly reject Boris nee Cummings prorogation of the HOC which acted as a catalyst for the opposition and I have no idea why anyone thinks Cummings is any good and certainly he has been a disaster so far.
I also condemn Boris nee Cummings sacking of 21 good conservative mps prompting my resignation from the party and demonstrating just how clueless they both are
I also condemn Corbyn and others for running scared of a GE
I accept there are strong feelings from leavers and remainers and there must be a considerable number like me seeking a compromise. I have always wanted that to happen hence why I backed TM deal. Listening again to Stephen Kinnock this lunchtime he seems confident that, with moderate conservative and many of his labour colleagues the 'Kinnock' amendment may well go through in Mid October
Now I have no idea if this is the case and plenty will say that is 'for the birds', but as we cruise across the Atlantic and back I just want to say that I hope everyone continues their vigorous debate, which is the strength of this forum, but those who feel their case is strengthened with rather colourful and hyperbolic descriptions, it really is not
I look forward to contributing as and when I can and wish all sides and none an interesting continuing political debate
Have a great time BG! We've just got back from Nova Scotia and it's very beautiful. Assuming you're docking in Halifax I'd recommend an excursion to Peggy's Cove.
Thanks rpjs and yes, Peggy's Cove was the first excursion booked.
Lots of Scots emigrated to Nova Scotia, hence the name, including my wife's forebears and of course there is a shared interest in anything to do with the fishing communities
Would it be churlish of me to point out that at the last 2 referenda the affirmative action (yes or remain) lost while the negative action (no or leave) won?
People may answer yes to opinion polls but there's a lot of evidence worldwide that referenda are quite likely to get a negative answer. From memory the vast majority of referenda in Australia for instance have failed.
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
Tory Fibs @ToryFibs · 17m It's been an excellent day for Labour. Great new policies from Jeremy Corbyn and a cracking speech from Jeremy too. Unifying & inspiring. Just received information that Tom Watson plans to torpedo that tonight in a move planned to cause maximum damage to Labour unity. Ignore him
Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan", despite all the diversions thrown to convince us that there was one. Hence:
1. Nothing will happen until late in the day of 19th October.
2. At that point, Johnson will meet with her Maj, say that as the Government cannot command a majority in the Commons, and as he is not as he says prepared to invite the EU keep the UK in the EU on whatever terms it likes, then his Government cannot continue in office and he will cease to be PM with immediate effect.
3. Johnson will make it known that he made no recommendation to the Queen as to whom should succeed him.
4. The Queen nonetheless will send for Corbyn (as she surely must, unlike Bercow she I think respects constitutional precedent).
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
6. The next parliamentary day (Monday 21st), Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, which will fall, Corbyn having served his very short lived purpose by serving the notice over the weekend.
7. No other government will be formed within the 14 day period which can command a majority and we will face a GE in late October or early November.
I am not going to predict which party or coalition of parties will win that election, but I think this simple course will give Johnson and the Conservatives their best chance.
Corbyn will not be falling for that. It's a wet dream GE scenario for Johnson.
The right wing press slating Bercow because he bent a few conventions , of course ignoring the fact that the government under May tried every trick to stop proper scrutiny and for MPs to have no say in what type of deal was agreed.
May acted as if she had a huge majority after 2017 , all Bercow did was allow MPs the chance to debate and vote on crucial issues .
If the government had a big majority and could keep its MPs loyal then its irrelevant what Bercow did .
No ones saying Bercow is some saint but he was there at a crucial time and enabled MPs a voice .
He’s being attacked by many of the Leave side for strengthening parliamentary sovereignty , allegedly this is why many wanted to leave the EU .
The more time goes on the more we see that the sovereignty arguments for Brexit are just a sham .
All the "arguments" in favour of Brexit are a sham. It is a belief set based on emotion and emotion only. It is not even equivalent of belief in God, more of a belief in fairies or Father Christmas.
Except that fairies and Father Christmas are nice things to believe in.
Yes and Father Christmas gives things to children rather than taking away their future options.
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
Tory Fibs @ToryFibs · 17m It's been an excellent day for Labour. Great new policies from Jeremy Corbyn and a cracking speech from Jeremy too. Unifying & inspiring. Just received information that Tom Watson plans to torpedo that tonight in a move planned to cause maximum damage to Labour unity. Ignore him
As some of you know my wife and I leave on a round trip cruise from Southampton to Nova Scotia, New England and New York on Saturday and return on Tuesday 8th October. This is my dear wife's 80th birthday present fulfilling a dream we have both shared since the the early 1960's. When I booked it as a surprise present 18 months ago little did we think we would be leaving our shores only to return approx 4 weeks later to a UK that has totally lost it's way.
I have decided to prorogued myself from this wonderful forum (unless something earth shattering happens) but before I go I would just like to make one or two comments.
I utterly reject Boris nee Cummings prorogation of the HOC which acted as a catalyst for the opposition and I have no idea why anyone thinks Cummings is any good and certainly he has been a disaster so far.
I also condemn Boris nee Cummings sacking of 21 good conservative mps prompting my resignation from the party and demonstrating just how clueless they both are
I also condemn Corbyn and others for running scared of a GE
I accept there are strong feelings from leavers and remainers and there must be a considerable number like me seeking a compromise. I have always wanted that to happen hence why I backed TM deal. Listening again to Stephen Kinnock this lunchtime he seems confident that, with moderate conservative and many of his labour colleagues the 'Kinnock' amendment may well go through in Mid October
Now I have no idea if this is the case and plenty will say that is 'for the birds', but as we cruise across the Atlantic and back I just want to say that I hope everyone continues their vigorous debate, which is the strength of this forum, but those who feel their case is strengthened with rather colourful and hyperbolic descriptions, it really is not
I look forward to contributing as and when I can and wish all sides and none an interesting continuing political debate
Have a great time BG! We've just got back from Nova Scotia and it's very beautiful. Assuming you're docking in Halifax I'd recommend an excursion to Peggy's Cove.
Thanks rpjs and yes, Peggy's Cove was the first excursion booked.
Lots of Scots emigrated to Nova Scotia, hence the name, including my wife's forebears and of course there is a shared interest in anything to do with the fishing communities
Yes, the vibe is still very Scottish - lots of men in kilts at the touristy spots and the occasional bagpiper. There is also a strong Francophone legacy from the original Acadian settlers, especially on the west side of Cape Breton Island.
Interesting that even among Leave voters, slightly less than half think no-deal would be a success. A ringing endorsement from Leave voters then! Many of us have been saying for a long time that there is absolutely no mandate for no-deal. Soft Brexit is the only logical conclusion and fair outcome.
Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan", despite all the diversions thrown to convince us that there was one. Hence:
1. Nothing will happen until late in the day of 19th October.
2. At that point, Johnson will meet with her Maj, say that as the Government cannot command a majority in the Commons, and as he is not as he says prepared to invite the EU keep the UK in the EU on whatever terms it likes, then his Government cannot continue in office and he will cease to be PM with immediate effect.
3. Johnson will make it known that he made no recommendation to the Queen as to whom should succeed him.
4. The Queen nonetheless will send for Corbyn (as she surely must, unlike Bercow she I think respects constitutional precedent).
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
6. The next parliamentary day (Monday 21st), Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, which will fall, Corbyn having served his very short lived purpose by serving the notice over the weekend.
7. No other government will be formed within the 14 day period which can command a majority and we will face a GE in late October or early November.
I am not going to predict which party or coalition of parties will win that election, but I think this simple course will give Johnson and the Conservatives their best chance.
The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.
If, with his proven powers of political finesse, he can manoeuvre the four opposition parties into precisely the right psephological positions, he can still win an election with just 24% of the vote ...
Finally some polling that confirms my personal perception that leaving is pretty popular in my bit of the south, and not especially something that working class people are more keen on than middle class ones.
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
What happens if the EU say 'no?'
Revoke becomes the only option.
It doesn’t, although it might be the first to be tried.
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
What happens if the EU say 'no?'
Revoke becomes the only option.
And will Corbyn do that, in this scenario?
Corbyn's ideal is a no-deal disaster with anyone but Labour in charge. He'd prefer to revoke than be blamed for going over the precipice. I suspect he might play a revoke-and-re-notify to "reset" the clock for two years in order to try to negotiate his "credible" deal.
But I agree with kinabalu, Corbyn won't be in that position. If Boris tries to hand the keys back to Brenda, Corbyn won't accept her commission, unless he feels that he can survive any Boris VONC attempt, which I think he'd be better placed to do so than many would think.
Tory Fibs @ToryFibs · 17m It's been an excellent day for Labour. Great new policies from Jeremy Corbyn and a cracking speech from Jeremy too. Unifying & inspiring. Just received information that Tom Watson plans to torpedo that tonight in a move planned to cause maximum damage to Labour unity. Ignore him
I think Labour unity is somewhat equal to Conservative unity. In other words, not much Tom Watson can do to make it worse. Must listen to that speech by Corbyn. he must have had some ground breaking training lol.
Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan", despite all the diversions thrown to convince us that there was one. Hence:
1. Nothing will happen until late in the day of 19th October.
2. At that point, Johnson will meet with her Maj, say that as the Government cannot command a majority in the Commons, and as he is not as he says prepared to invite the EU keep the UK in the EU on whatever terms it likes, then his Government cannot continue in office and he will cease to be PM with immediate effect.
3. Johnson will make it known that he made no recommendation to the Queen as to whom should succeed him.
4. The Queen nonetheless will send for Corbyn (as she surely must, unlike Bercow she I think respects constitutional precedent).
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
6. The next parliamentary day (Monday 21st), Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, which will fall, Corbyn having served his very short lived purpose by serving the notice over the weekend.
7. No other government will be formed within the 14 day period which can command a majority and we will face a GE in late October or early November.
I am not going to predict which party or coalition of parties will win that election, but I think this simple course will give Johnson and the Conservatives their best chance.
The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.
Agreed. Corbyn wouldn't have a majority in the sense of being able to ram through an ukaz renaming Parliament to the Supreme Soviet, but there would be no immediately compelling reason for the LDs, SNP and indies to depose him. In fact a denatured Corbyn, in office but not in power, could be an attractive proposition for a lot of people.
Tory Fibs @ToryFibs · 17m It's been an excellent day for Labour. Great new policies from Jeremy Corbyn and a cracking speech from Jeremy too. Unifying & inspiring. Just received information that Tom Watson plans to torpedo that tonight in a move planned to cause maximum damage to Labour unity. Ignore him
I really wish I knew what that person is smoking.
Left wing version of the weed that HYUFD gets from Conservative Central Office. Apparently it is a variety called Blind Loyalty , and it eventually sends it's users into a depressive state.
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
What happens if the EU say 'no?'
Revoke becomes the only option.
And will Corbyn do that, in this scenario?
Corbyn's ideal is a no-deal disaster with anyone but Labour in charge. He'd prefer to revoke than be blamed for going over the precipice. I suspect he might play a revoke-and-re-notify to "reset" the clock for two years in order to try to negotiate his "credible" deal.
But I agree with kinabalu, Corbyn won't be in that position. If Boris tries to hand the keys back to Brenda, he won't accept her commission, unless he feels that he can survive any Boris VONC attempt, which I think he'd be better placed to do so than many would think.
I'm not sure the position will necessarily be that Labour will negotiate a new deal. It might well be just to put May's deal through to a referendum vs Remain (with Labour MPs whipped to put the referendum through, but free vote in the referendum itself).
It would have the political advantage through an election campaign of promising "an end at last" to the saga, whereas a promise of a full-blown Labour renegotiation, as well as not being that credible, would suggest the un-enticing prospect of years more of this.
Interesting that even among Leave voters, slightly less than half think no-deal would be a success. A ringing endorsement from Leave voters then! Many of us have been saying for a long time that there is absolutely no mandate for no-deal. Soft Brexit is the only logical conclusion and fair outcome.
That's so unfair. This is brilliant for Boris.
Look at the Tory voters. As many as 43% still Believe in No Deal. That translates to about 15% of the electorate. That's still enough for a majority, if the five or six opposition parties split in precisely the right way.
Interesting that even among Leave voters, slightly less than half think no-deal would be a success. A ringing endorsement from Leave voters then! Many of us have been saying for a long time that there is absolutely no mandate for no-deal. Soft Brexit is the only logical conclusion and fair outcome.
That's so unfair. This is brilliant for Boris.
Look at the Tory voters. As many as 43% still Believe in No Deal. That translates to about 15% of the electorate. That's still enough for a majority, if the five or six opposition parties split in precisely the right way.
Isn't it? Isn't it?
Brilliant. For a second or two I thought you were HYUFD. You are Mike Yarwood and I claim my £5
Interesting that even among Leave voters, slightly less than half think no-deal would be a success. A ringing endorsement from Leave voters then! Many of us have been saying for a long time that there is absolutely no mandate for no-deal. Soft Brexit is the only logical conclusion and fair outcome.
Again, to my astonishment, you and I agree!
Most people in the country are far more practical than our politicians.
Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan", despite all the diversions thrown to convince us that there was one. Hence:
1. Nothing will happen until late in the day of 19th October.
2. At that point, Johnson will meet with her Maj, say that as the Government cannot command a majority in the Commons, and as he is not as he says prepared to invite the EU keep the UK in the EU on whatever terms it likes, then his Government cannot continue in office and he will cease to be PM with immediate effect.
3. Johnson will make it known that he made no recommendation to the Queen as to whom should succeed him.
4. The Queen nonetheless will send for Corbyn (as she surely must, unlike Bercow she I think respects constitutional precedent).
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
6. The next parliamentary day (Monday 21st), Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, which will fall, Corbyn having served his very short lived purpose by serving the notice over the weekend.
7. No other government will be formed within the 14 day period which can command a majority and we will face a GE in late October or early November.
I am not going to predict which party or coalition of parties will win that election, but I think this simple course will give Johnson and the Conservatives their best chance.
The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.
Yep, the Remain Alliance is now very tight - Boris would be mad to let in Corbyn on the assumption he would lose a VONC. As with prats voting in Labour's leadership contest for Corbyn to ensure 'an open debate', so letting in Corbyn to No.10 would be a massive error.
Interesting that even among Leave voters, slightly less than half think no-deal would be a success. A ringing endorsement from Leave voters then! Many of us have been saying for a long time that there is absolutely no mandate for no-deal. Soft Brexit is the only logical conclusion and fair outcome.
Again, to my astonishment, you and I agree!
Most people in the country are far more practical than our politicians.
Would it be churlish of me to point out that at the last 2 referenda the affirmative action (yes or remain) lost while the negative action (no or leave) won?
People may answer yes to opinion polls but there's a lot of evidence worldwide that referenda are quite likely to get a negative answer. From memory the vast majority of referenda in Australia for instance have failed.
Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan", despite all the diversions thrown to convince us that there was one. Hence:
1. Nothing will happen until late in the day of 19th October.
2. At that point, Johnson will meet with her Maj, say that as the Government cannot command a majority in the Commons, and as he is not as he says prepared to invite the EU keep the UK in the EU on whatever terms it likes, then his Government cannot continue in office and he will cease to be PM with immediate effect.
3. Johnson will make it known that he made no recommendation to the Queen as to whom should succeed him.
4. The Queen nonetheless will send for Corbyn (as she surely must, unlike Bercow she I think respects constitutional precedent).
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
6. The next parliamentary day (Monday 21st), Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, which will fall, Corbyn having served his very short lived purpose by serving the notice over the weekend.
7. No other government will be formed within the 14 day period which can command a majority and we will face a GE in late October or early November.
I am not going to predict which party or coalition of parties will win that election, but I think this simple course will give Johnson and the Conservatives their best chance.
The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.
Yep, the Remain Alliance is now very tight - Boris would be mad to let in Corbyn on the assumption he would lose a VONC. As with prats voting in Labour's leadership contest for Corbyn to ensure 'an open debate', so letting in Corbyn to No.10 would be a massive error.
I'm of the opinion now that we just let the remainers revoke and wait for PM Farage in 2022.
Unless, of course, anyone really thinks that an establisment stitch up to cancel Brexit in 2019 will settle the matter once and for all?
Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan", despite all the diversions thrown to convince us that there was one. Hence:
1. Nothing will happen until late in the day of 19th October.
2. At that point, Johnson will meet with her Maj, say that as the Government cannot command a majority in the Commons, and as he is not as he says prepared to invite the EU keep the UK in the EU on whatever terms it likes, then his Government cannot continue in office and he will cease to be PM with immediate effect.
3. Johnson will make it known that he made no recommendation to the Queen as to whom should succeed him.
4. The Queen nonetheless will send for Corbyn (as she surely must, unlike Bercow she I think respects constitutional precedent).
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
6. The next parliamentary day (Monday 21st), Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, which will fall, Corbyn having served his very short lived purpose by serving the notice over the weekend.
7. No other government will be formed within the 14 day period which can command a majority and we will face a GE in late October or early November.
I am not going to predict which party or coalition of parties will win that election, but I think this simple course will give Johnson and the Conservatives their best chance.
No where near certain Johnson's VONC would pass. Corbyn could offer Lib-Dems a "People's Vote" and SNP another Scottish referendum (whether he is serious about fulfilling any of that is another but he could certainly astrong them along for several months)
Don't assume Libs and SNP will go along with the Conservatives VONC - Especially given the way everyone hates Boris.
My own view is that if Jezza is PM on 1st November he will still be in Downing St. on 1st April and there will be no general election in between.
Interesting that even among Leave voters, slightly less than half think no-deal would be a success. A ringing endorsement from Leave voters then! Many of us have been saying for a long time that there is absolutely no mandate for no-deal. Soft Brexit is the only logical conclusion and fair outcome.
Again, to my astonishment, you and I agree!
Most people in the country are far more practical than our politicians.
I mean, I'd be fine with a Soft Brexit if such a thing is even possible anymore, but I'm not sure it will satisfy the public.
It can't be a coincidence that both Labour's and the Tories' polling fell off a cliff this spring the minute they went into talks with eachother to find a compromise...
Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan", despite all the diversions thrown to convince us that there was one. Hence:
1. Nothing will happen until late in the day of 19th October.
2. At that point, Johnson will meet with her Maj, say that as the Government cannot command a majority in the Commons, and as he is not as he says prepared to invite the EU keep the UK in the EU on whatever terms it likes, then his Government cannot continue in office and he will cease to be PM with immediate effect.
3. Johnson will make it known that he made no recommendation to the Queen as to whom should succeed him.
4. The Queen nonetheless will send for Corbyn (as she surely must, unlike Bercow she I think respects constitutional precedent).
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
6. The next parliamentary day (Monday 21st), Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, which will fall, Corbyn having served his very short lived purpose by serving the notice over the weekend.
7. No other government will be formed within the 14 day period which can command a majority and we will face a GE in late October or early November.
I am not going to predict which party or coalition of parties will win that election, but I think this simple course will give Johnson and the Conservatives their best chance.
Possible up to 5.
6 looks unlikely: the temporary coalition would hold up to 1 November at least to shepherd the extension over the line. It might well hold a bit longer. You’re more likely to see Jeremy Corbyn proactively agree to an early election then than see a successful vote of no confidence against his wishes.
On 7, you have to allow at least 25 working days after the 14 days. So we’d be looking at a Christmas election.
Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan", despite all the diversions thrown to convince us that there was one. Hence:
1. Nothing will happen until late in the day of 19th October.
2. At that point, Johnson will meet with her Maj, say that as the Government cannot command a majority in the Commons, and as he is not as he says prepared to invite the EU keep the UK in the EU on whatever terms it likes, then his Government cannot continue in office and he will cease to be PM with immediate effect.
3. Johnson will make it known that he made no recommendation to the Queen as to whom should succeed him.
4. The Queen nonetheless will send for Corbyn (as she surely must, unlike Bercow she I think respects constitutional precedent).
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
6. The next parliamentary day (Monday 21st), Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, which will fall, Corbyn having served his very short lived purpose by serving the notice over the weekend.
7. No other government will be formed within the 14 day period which can command a majority and we will face a GE in late October or early November.
I am not going to predict which party or coalition of parties will win that election, but I think this simple course will give Johnson and the Conservatives their best chance.
The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.
Yep, the Remain Alliance is now very tight - Boris would be mad to let in Corbyn on the assumption he would lose a VONC. As with prats voting in Labour's leadership contest for Corbyn to ensure 'an open debate', so letting in Corbyn to No.10 would be a massive error.
Besides, running away at the crucial moment, then expecting to walk back in when someone else has defused the timebomb... It may work, but it's not a good look.
Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan", despite all the diversions thrown to convince us that there was one. Hence:
1. Nothing will happen until late in the day of 19th October.
2. At that point, Johnson will meet with her Maj, say that as the Government cannot command a majority in the Commons, and as he is not as he says prepared to invite the EU keep the UK in the EU on whatever terms it likes, then his Government cannot continue in office and he will cease to be PM with immediate effect.
3. Johnson will make it known that he made no recommendation to the Queen as to whom should succeed him.
4. The Queen nonetheless will send for Corbyn (as she surely must, unlike Bercow she I think respects constitutional precedent).
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
6. The next parliamentary day (Monday 21st), Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, which will fall, Corbyn having served his very short lived purpose by serving the notice over the weekend.
7. No other government will be formed within the 14 day period which can command a majority and we will face a GE in late October or early November.
I am not going to predict which party or coalition of parties will win that election, but I think this simple course will give Johnson and the Conservatives their best chance.
The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.
Yep, the Remain Alliance is now very tight - Boris would be mad to let in Corbyn on the assumption he would lose a VONC. As with prats voting in Labour's leadership contest for Corbyn to ensure 'an open debate', so letting in Corbyn to No.10 would be a massive error.
No - Boris is Brilliant. It's all a ruse. Once he has persuaded everyone he's stupid, destroyed the government's majority, pissed off the House of Lords, alienated Merkel, Macron and Varadkar, the master-stroke will be to put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street.
Once he's done that, he'll have everyone just where he wants them!
Comments
Bad start to her speakership campaign.
May acted as if she had a huge majority after 2017 , all Bercow did was allow MPs the chance to debate and vote on crucial issues .
If the government had a big majority and could keep its MPs loyal then its irrelevant what Bercow did .
No ones saying Bercow is some saint but he was there at a crucial time and enabled MPs a voice .
He’s being attacked by many of the Leave side for strengthening parliamentary sovereignty , allegedly this is why many wanted to leave the EU .
The more time goes on the more we see that the sovereignty arguments for Brexit are just a sham .
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/yougov-panelbase-figures-on-brexit-in-north-1-6262320
However as we have seen even if it won the referendum with over 50% as Leave did in 2016 no guarantee the result would be implemented
How did you manage to align your absence so well with the prorogation?!
1. Nothing will happen until late in the day of 19th October.
2. At that point, Johnson will meet with her Maj, say that as the Government cannot command a majority in the Commons, and as he is not as he says prepared to invite the EU keep the UK in the EU on whatever terms it likes, then his Government cannot continue in office and he will cease to be PM with immediate effect.
3. Johnson will make it known that he made no recommendation to the Queen as to whom should succeed him.
4. The Queen nonetheless will send for Corbyn (as she surely must, unlike Bercow she I think respects constitutional precedent).
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
6. The next parliamentary day (Monday 21st), Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, which will fall, Corbyn having served his very short lived purpose by serving the notice over the weekend.
7. No other government will be formed within the 14 day period which can command a majority and we will face a GE in late October or early November.
I am not going to predict which party or coalition of parties will win that election, but I think this simple course will give Johnson and the Conservatives their best chance.
https://twitter.com/conservatives/status/1171422416972570624
Lots of Scots emigrated to Nova Scotia, hence the name, including my wife's forebears and of course there is a shared interest in anything to do with the fishing communities
People may answer yes to opinion polls but there's a lot of evidence worldwide that referenda are quite likely to get a negative answer. From memory the vast majority of referenda in Australia for instance have failed.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_debates_and_forums#Third_debate_(September_12,_2019)
Tory Fibs
@ToryFibs
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17m
It's been an excellent day for Labour. Great new policies from Jeremy Corbyn and a cracking speech from Jeremy too. Unifying & inspiring. Just received information that Tom Watson plans to torpedo that tonight in a move planned to cause maximum damage to Labour unity. Ignore him
Interesting, but I'd want to see more data, including the shift from initial polling to polling day.
If, with his proven powers of political finesse, he can manoeuvre the four opposition parties into precisely the right psephological positions, he can still win an election with just 24% of the vote ...
No.
Much nonsense is spoken based upon that false premise.
But I agree with kinabalu, Corbyn won't be in that position. If Boris tries to hand the keys back to Brenda, Corbyn won't accept her commission, unless he feels that he can survive any Boris VONC attempt, which I think he'd be better placed to do so than many would think.
It would have the political advantage through an election campaign of promising "an end at last" to the saga, whereas a promise of a full-blown Labour renegotiation, as well as not being that credible, would suggest the un-enticing prospect of years more of this.
Look at the Tory voters. As many as 43% still Believe in No Deal. That translates to about 15% of the electorate. That's still enough for a majority, if the five or six opposition parties split in precisely the right way.
Isn't it? Isn't it?
Most people in the country are far more practical than our politicians.
Unless, of course, anyone really thinks that an establisment stitch up to cancel Brexit in 2019 will settle the matter once and for all?
Don't assume Libs and SNP will go along with the Conservatives VONC - Especially given the way everyone hates Boris.
My own view is that if Jezza is PM on 1st November he will still be in Downing St. on 1st April and there will be no general election in between.
It can't be a coincidence that both Labour's and the Tories' polling fell off a cliff this spring the minute they went into talks with eachother to find a compromise...
6 looks unlikely: the temporary coalition would hold up to 1 November at least to shepherd the extension over the line. It might well hold a bit longer. You’re more likely to see Jeremy Corbyn proactively agree to an early election then than see a successful vote of no confidence against his wishes.
On 7, you have to allow at least 25 working days after the 14 days. So we’d be looking at a Christmas election.
Once he's done that, he'll have everyone just where he wants them!