Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan", despite all the diversions thrown to convince us that there was one. Hence:
1. Nothing will happen until late in the day of 19th October.
2. At that point, Johnson will meet with her Maj, say that as the Government cannot command a majority in the Commons, and as he is not as he says prepared to invite the EU keep the UK in the EU on whatever terms it likes, then his Government cannot continue in office and he will cease to be PM with immediate effect.
3. Johnson will make it known that he made no recommendation to the Queen as to whom should succeed him.
4. The Queen nonetheless will send for Corbyn (as she surely must, unlike Bercow she I think respects constitutional precedent).
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
6. The next parliamentary day (Monday 21st), Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, which will fall, Corbyn having served his very short lived purpose by serving the notice over the weekend.
7. No other government will be formed within the 14 day period which can command a majority and we will face a GE in late October or early November.
I am not going to predict which party or coalition of parties will win that election, but I think this simple course will give Johnson and the Conservatives their best chance.
The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.
Yep, the Remain Alliance is now very tight - Boris would be mad to let in Corbyn on the assumption he would lose a VONC. As with prats voting in Labour's leadership contest for Corbyn to ensure 'an open debate', so letting in Corbyn to No.10 would be a massive error.
No - Boris is Brilliant. It's all a ruse. Once he has persuaded everyone he's stupid, destroyed the government's majority, pissed off the House of Lords, alienated Merkel, Macron and Varadkar, the master-stroke will be to put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street.
Once he's done that, he'll have everyone just where he wants them!
You left out getting himself put in prison. That’s all part of the plan to become the next Nelson Mandela.
@Mr kyf_100 !!! Yawn. I once again have to point out that a large part of the "Establishment" is for Brexit. A convenient substitute for real substantive constitutional change. By the way, has your Establishment Fixation Related Myopia prevented you from noticing that the current Brexit supporting PM went to Eton, Oxford, is a Privy Councillor, a Tory MP, speaks as though he has ten plums up his arse and is buddies with fellow Etonian and Arch-Brexiteer, bench slouching Jacob Rees Mogg?
Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan", despite all the diversions thrown to convince us that there was one. Hence:
1. Nothing will happen until late in the day of 19th October.
2. At that point, Johnson will meet with her Maj, say that as the Government cannot command a majority in the Commons, and as he is not as he says prepared to invite the EU keep the UK in the EU on whatever terms it likes, then his Government cannot continue in office and he will cease to be PM with immediate effect.
3. Johnson will make it known that he made no recommendation to the Queen as to whom should succeed him.
4. The Queen nonetheless will send for Corbyn (as she surely must, unlike Bercow she I think respects constitutional precedent).
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
6. The next parliamentary day (Monday 21st), Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, which will fall, Corbyn having served his very short lived purpose by serving the notice over the weekend.
7. No other government will be formed within the 14 day period which can command a majority and we will face a GE in late October or early November.
I am not going to predict which party or coalition of parties will win that election, but I think this simple course will give Johnson and the Conservatives their best chance.
The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.
Yep, the Remain Alliance is now very tight - Boris would be mad to let in Corbyn on the assumption he would lose a VONC. As with prats voting in Labour's leadership contest for Corbyn to ensure 'an open debate', so letting in Corbyn to No.10 would be a massive error.
No - Boris is Brilliant. It's all a ruse. Once he has persuaded everyone he's stupid, destroyed the government's majority, pissed off the House of Lords, alienated Merkel, Macron and Varadkar, the master-stroke will be to put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street.
Once he's done that, he'll have everyone just where he wants them!
It is that dastardly Cummy man. All of this is part of his carefully choreographed plan!
No where near certain Johnson's VONC would pass. Corbyn could offer Lib-Dems a "People's Vote" and SNP another Scottish referendum (whether he is serious about fulfilling any of that is another but he could certainly astrong them along for several months)
Don't assume Libs and SNP will go along with the Conservatives VONC - Especially given the way everyone hates Boris.
My own view is that if Jezza is PM on 1st November he will still be in Downing St. on 1st April and there will be no general election in between.
It is in the interests of the SNP and the LibDems (and the Tories) to have an election with Corbyn as Labour leader.
The SNP realise this. Whether the LibDems do is hard to say.
Noteworthy that less than half of all Leavers are tub-thumping for No Deal there.
That's because it's so trivial to think of a mutually beneficial improvement on no deal. If over three years of Dexeu/ Commission beard stroking can't come up with *anything*, that's an extraordinary failure of diplomacy.
Interesting that even among Leave voters, slightly less than half think no-deal would be a success. A ringing endorsement from Leave voters then! Many of us have been saying for a long time that there is absolutely no mandate for no-deal. Soft Brexit is the only logical conclusion and fair outcome.
Again, to my astonishment, you and I agree!
Most people in the country are far more practical than our politicians.
I mean, I'd be fine with a Soft Brexit if such a thing is even possible anymore, but I'm not sure it will satisfy the public.
It can't be a coincidence that both Labour's and the Tories' polling fell off a cliff this spring the minute they went into talks with eachother to find a compromise...
Interesting that even among Leave voters, slightly less than half think no-deal would be a success. A ringing endorsement from Leave voters then! Many of us have been saying for a long time that there is absolutely no mandate for no-deal. Soft Brexit is the only logical conclusion and fair outcome.
Again, to my astonishment, you and I agree!
Most people in the country are far more practical than our politicians.
I mean, I'd be fine with a Soft Brexit if such a thing is even possible anymore, but I'm not sure it will satisfy the public.
It can't be a coincidence that both Labour's and the Tories' polling fell off a cliff this spring the minute they went into talks with eachother to find a compromise...
Au contraire.
My reading of the situation (from extensive consultation with friends, family and colleagues over recent weeks) is that the 70% are well up for this and willing to compromise.
It’s the politicians who are pandering to their loud activist extremes.
Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan", despite all the diversions thrown to convince us that there was one. Hence:
1. Nothing will happen until late in the day of 19th October.
2. At that point, Johnson will meet with her Maj, say that as the Government cannot command a majority in the Commons, and as he is not as he says prepared to invite the EU keep the UK in the EU on whatever terms it likes, then his Government cannot continue in office and he will cease to be PM with immediate effect.
3. Johnson will make it known that he made no recommendation to the Queen as to whom should succeed him.
4. The Queen nonetheless will send for Corbyn (as she surely must, unlike Bercow she I think respects constitutional precedent).
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
6. The next parliamentary day (Monday 21st), Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, which will fall, Corbyn having served his very short lived purpose by serving the notice over the weekend.
7. No other government will be formed within the 14 day period which can command a majority and we will face a GE in late October or early November.
I am not going to predict which party or coalition of parties will win that election, but I think this simple course will give Johnson and the Conservatives their best chance.
Possible up to 5.
6 looks unlikely: the temporary coalition would hold up to 1 November at least to shepherd the extension over the line. It might well hold a bit longer. You’re more likely to see Jeremy Corbyn proactively agree to an early election then than see a successful vote of no confidence against his wishes.
On 7, you have to allow at least 25 working days after the 14 days. So we’d be looking at a Christmas election.
Yes, partially a slip of the pen on my part re 7. I had meant late November or early December following a 21st October no confidence vote although it could well be mid December. However, regarding 6, so long as no alternative government of Brexiteers is formed as soon as Corbyn's falls (and how conceivably could there be one which could survive a confidence vote?) aren't we over the line anyway?
Interesting that even among Leave voters, slightly less than half think no-deal would be a success. A ringing endorsement from Leave voters then! Many of us have been saying for a long time that there is absolutely no mandate for no-deal. Soft Brexit is the only logical conclusion and fair outcome.
Again, to my astonishment, you and I agree!
Most people in the country are far more practical than our politicians.
I mean, I'd be fine with a Soft Brexit if such a thing is even possible anymore, but I'm not sure it will satisfy the public.
It can't be a coincidence that both Labour's and the Tories' polling fell off a cliff this spring the minute they went into talks with eachother to find a compromise...
If your idea of " the public" is the combined membership of the Brexit party, The Party Formally Known as The Conservatives, and other right wing factions (UKIP -remember them - splitters!) you might be right.
However, looking at that recent poll it suggests compromise is exactly what most of the "public" would be very happy with.
The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.
Yep, the Remain Alliance is now very tight - Boris would be mad to let in Corbyn on the assumption he would lose a VONC. As with prats voting in Labour's leadership contest for Corbyn to ensure 'an open debate', so letting in Corbyn to No.10 would be a massive error.
No - Boris is Brilliant. It's all a ruse. Once he has persuaded everyone he's stupid, destroyed the government's majority, pissed off the House of Lords, alienated Merkel, Macron and Varadkar, the master-stroke will be to put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street.
Once he's done that, he'll have everyone just where he wants them!
You left out getting himself put in prison. That’s all part of the plan to become the next Nelson Mandela.
You're so right. We just need to work on a plan of getting Boris into prison and putting Corbyn into Downing Street, and then we shall have achieved absolute perfection.
Interesting that even among Leave voters, slightly less than half think no-deal would be a success. A ringing endorsement from Leave voters then! Many of us have been saying for a long time that there is absolutely no mandate for no-deal. Soft Brexit is the only logical conclusion and fair outcome.
Again, to my astonishment, you and I agree!
Most people in the country are far more practical than our politicians.
I mean, I'd be fine with a Soft Brexit if such a thing is even possible anymore, but I'm not sure it will satisfy the public.
It can't be a coincidence that both Labour's and the Tories' polling fell off a cliff this spring the minute they went into talks with eachother to find a compromise...
Interesting that even among Leave voters, slightly less than half think no-deal would be a success. A ringing endorsement from Leave voters then! Many of us have been saying for a long time that there is absolutely no mandate for no-deal. Soft Brexit is the only logical conclusion and fair outcome.
Again, to my astonishment, you and I agree!
Most people in the country are far more practical than our politicians.
I mean, I'd be fine with a Soft Brexit if such a thing is even possible anymore, but I'm not sure it will satisfy the public.
It can't be a coincidence that both Labour's and the Tories' polling fell off a cliff this spring the minute they went into talks with eachother to find a compromise...
Au contraire.
My reading of the situation (from extensive consultation with friends, family and colleagues over recent weeks) is that the 70% are well up for this and willing to compromise.
It’s the politicians who are pandering to their loud activist extremes.
Gosh, we agree again! partic the last sentence! There is hope after all!
The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.
Yep, the Remain Alliance is now very tight - Boris would be mad to let in Corbyn on the assumption he would lose a VONC. As with prats voting in Labour's leadership contest for Corbyn to ensure 'an open debate', so letting in Corbyn to No.10 would be a massive error.
No - Boris is Brilliant. It's all a ruse. Once he has persuaded everyone he's stupid, destroyed the government's majority, pissed off the House of Lords, alienated Merkel, Macron and Varadkar, the master-stroke will be to put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street.
Once he's done that, he'll have everyone just where he wants them!
You left out getting himself put in prison. That’s all part of the plan to become the next Nelson Mandela.
You're so right. We just need to work on a plan of getting Boris into prison and putting Corbyn into Downing Street, and then we shall have achieved absolute perfection.
Maybe Cummings will even pay us for the plan.
I could live with Johnson, Cummings and Corbyn all going to prison for 27 years.
But it doesn't seem very fair on the other prisoners.
@Mr kyf_100 !!! Yawn. I once again have to point out that a large part of the "Establishment" is for Brexit. A convenient substitute for real substantive constitutional change. By the way, has your Establishment Fixation Related Myopia prevented you from noticing that the current Brexit supporting PM went to Eton, Oxford, is a Privy Councillor, a Tory MP, speaks as though he has ten plums up his arse and is buddies with fellow Etonian and Arch-Brexiteer, bench slouching Jacob Rees Mogg?
All politicians are to some extent, the establishment. But the ones you've listed aren't the ones trying to block, subvert and betray a democratic vote.
It is one thing to be a member of the establishment, it is another entirely to be part of an establishment stitch up.
I say let the remainers have their way - then let the rest of us have our say.
Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan", despite all the diversions thrown to convince us that there was one. Hence:
1. Nothing will happen until late in the day of 19th October.
2. At that point, Johnson will meet with her Maj, say that as the Government cannot command a majority in the Commons, and as he is not as he says prepared to invite the EU keep the UK in the EU on whatever terms it likes, then his Government cannot continue in office and he will cease to be PM with immediate effect.
3. Johnson will make it known that he made no recommendation to the Queen as to whom should succeed him.
4. The Queen nonetheless will send for Corbyn (as she surely must, unlike Bercow she I think respects constitutional precedent).
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
6. The next parliamentary day (Monday 21st), Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, which will fall, Corbyn having served his very short lived purpose by serving the notice over the weekend.
7. No other government will be formed within the 14 day period which can command a majority and we will face a GE in late October or early November.
I am not going to predict which party or coalition of parties will win that election, but I think this simple course will give Johnson and the Conservatives their best chance.
The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.
Yep, the Remain Alliance is now very tight - Boris would be mad to let in Corbyn on the assumption he would lose a VONC. As with prats voting in Labour's leadership contest for Corbyn to ensure 'an open debate', so letting in Corbyn to No.10 would be a massive error.
No - Boris is Brilliant. It's all a ruse. Once he has persuaded everyone he's stupid, destroyed the government's majority, pissed off the House of Lords, alienated Merkel, Macron and Varadkar, the master-stroke will be to put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street.
Once he's done that, he'll have everyone just where he wants them!
You left out getting himself put in prison. That’s all part of the plan to become the next Nelson Mandela.
Haha. "Free, Free Bozo-ho- Johnson" has a certain ring to it!
Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan"
Possible up to 5.
6 looks unlikely: the temporary coalition would hold up to 1 November at least to shepherd the extension over the line. It might well hold a bit longer. You’re more likely to see Jeremy Corbyn proactively agree to an early election then than see a successful vote of no confidence against his wishes.
On 7, you have to allow at least 25 working days after the 14 days. So we’d be looking at a Christmas election.
Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal".
Possible up to 5.
6 looks unlikely: the temporary coalition would hold up to 1 November at least to shepherd the extension over the line. It might well hold a bit longer. You’re more likely to see Jeremy Corbyn proactively agree to an early election then than see a successful vote of no confidence against his wishes.
On 7, you have to allow at least 25 working days after the 14 days. So we’d be looking at a Christmas election.
If an election isn’t called by 6th November (for Thurs 12th December) there won’t be one until Thurs 14th February at the earliest.
Interesting that even among Leave voters, slightly less than half think no-deal would be a success. A ringing endorsement from Leave voters then! Many of us have been saying for a long time that there is absolutely no mandate for no-deal. Soft Brexit is the only logical conclusion and fair outcome.
Again, to my astonishment, you and I agree!
Most people in the country are far more practical than our politicians.
Certainly more willing to agree on particular policies, even if we come to the compromise from very different starting points. (Which is one of the reasons I came around to be a strong supporter of PR.)
Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan", despite all the diversions thrown to convince us that there was one. Hence:
1. Nothing will happen until late in the day of 19th October.
2. At that point, Johnson will meet with her Maj, say that as the Government cannot command a majority in the Commons, and as he is not as he says prepared to invite the EU keep the UK in the EU on whatever terms it likes, then his Government cannot continue in office and he will cease to be PM with immediate effect.
3. Johnson will make it known that he made no recommendation to the Queen as to whom should succeed him.
4. The Queen nonetheless will send for Corbyn (as she surely must, unlike Bercow she I think respects constitutional precedent).
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
6. The next parliamentary day (Monday 21st), Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, which will fall, Corbyn having served his very short lived purpose by serving the notice over the weekend.
7. No other government will be formed within the 14 day period which can command a majority and we will face a GE in late October or early November.
I am not going to predict which party or coalition of parties will win that election, but I think this simple course will give Johnson and the Conservatives their best chance.
Possible up to 5.
6 looks unlikely: the temporary coalition would hold up to 1 November at least to shepherd the extension over the line. It might well hold a bit longer. You’re more likely to see Jeremy Corbyn proactively agree to an early election then than see a successful vote of no confidence against his wishes.
On 7, you have to allow at least 25 working days after the 14 days. So we’d be looking at a Christmas election.
Yes. 6. Who would be in the Cabinet? Presumably, accepting it was a Coalition, Swinson, Blackford, the PC lady, Lucas. That is already a large number of votes. Throw in, say Rory Stewart and Hammond,...bear with me on that, and you have a majority government, with JC as PM. Now. All you need is an extension, proposal for 2nd referendum, promise to Indyref 2, PR brought in, and keep to Boris' spending plans, to have a QS ready to go.
@Mr kyf_100 !!! Yawn. I once again have to point out that a large part of the "Establishment" is for Brexit. A convenient substitute for real substantive constitutional change. By the way, has your Establishment Fixation Related Myopia prevented you from noticing that the current Brexit supporting PM went to Eton, Oxford, is a Privy Councillor, a Tory MP, speaks as though he has ten plums up his arse and is buddies with fellow Etonian and Arch-Brexiteer, bench slouching Jacob Rees Mogg?
All politicians are to some extent, the establishment. But the ones you've listed aren't the ones trying to block, subvert and betray a democratic vote.
It is one thing to be a member of the establishment, it is another entirely to be part of an establishment stitch up.
I say let the remainers have their way - then let the rest of us have our say.
No-deal is the ultimate establishment stitch up. To have persuaded the gullible that they have supported self-harm that will only benefit the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg is pure genius. Thankfully it looks unlikely to work
The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.
Yep, the Remain Alliance is now very tight - Boris would be mad to let in Corbyn on the assumption he would lose a VONC. As with prats voting in Labour's leadership contest for Corbyn to ensure 'an open debate', so letting in Corbyn to No.10 would be a massive error.
No - Boris is Brilliant. It's all a ruse. Once he has persuaded everyone he's stupid, destroyed the government's majority, pissed off the House of Lords, alienated Merkel, Macron and Varadkar, the master-stroke will be to put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street.
Once he's done that, he'll have everyone just where he wants them!
You left out getting himself put in prison. That’s all part of the plan to become the next Nelson Mandela.
You're so right. We just need to work on a plan of getting Boris into prison and putting Corbyn into Downing Street, and then we shall have achieved absolute perfection.
Maybe Cummings will even pay us for the plan.
Not likely. He’s going to change the ‘terms of use‘ for being a citizen so that all ideas automatically become the intellectual property of UK (Dominic Cummings) Plc.
The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.
Yep, the Remain Alliance is now very tight - Boris would be mad to let in Corbyn on the assumption he would lose a VONC. As with prats voting in Labour's leadership contest for Corbyn to ensure 'an open debate', so letting in Corbyn to No.10 would be a massive error.
No - Boris is Brilliant. It's all a ruse. Once he has persuaded everyone he's stupid, destroyed the government's majority, pissed off the House of Lords, alienated Merkel, Macron and Varadkar, the master-stroke will be to put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street.
Once he's done that, he'll have everyone just where he wants them!
You left out getting himself put in prison. That’s all part of the plan to become the next Nelson Mandela.
You're so right. We just need to work on a plan of getting Boris into prison and putting Corbyn into Downing Street, and then we shall have achieved absolute perfection.
Maybe Cummings will even pay us for the plan.
Putting Boris into prison to stop Brexit is actually the best way to ensure a Tory landslide at the next general election
The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.
Yep, the Remain Alliance is now very tight - Boris would be mad to let in Corbyn on the assumption he would lose a VONC. As with prats voting in Labour's leadership contest for Corbyn to ensure 'an open debate', so letting in Corbyn to No.10 would be a massive error.
No - Boris is Brilliant. It's all a ruse. Once he has persuaded everyone he's stupid, destroyed the government's majority, pissed off the House of Lords, alienated Merkel, Macron and Varadkar, the master-stroke will be to put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street.
Once he's done that, he'll have everyone just where he wants them!
You left out getting himself put in prison. That’s all part of the plan to become the next Nelson Mandela.
You're so right. We just need to work on a plan of getting Boris into prison and putting Corbyn into Downing Street, and then we shall have achieved absolute perfection.
Maybe Cummings will even pay us for the plan.
I could live with Johnson, Cummings and Corbyn all going to prison for 27 years.
But it doesn't seem very fair on the other prisoners.
Put them in the same cell. You've got yourself a sitcom. The bemused ingenue, blithering idiot, and too clever by half evil schemer.
My reading of the situation (from extensive consultation with friends, family and colleagues over recent weeks) is that the 70% are well up for this and willing to compromise.
It’s the politicians who are pandering to their loud activist extremes.
I think that people are in favour of compromise in theory, on this as with nearly everything else. But they dislike complexity, which they think disguises evasiveness. And they don't rally behind politicians who themselves seem uncertain. I'd like to see Labour CHAMPIONING the proposal to negotiate a bearable deal and then offering a choice in a referendum. But we'll never sell it if we keep apologetically fine-tuning it.
The leadership's theory seems to be that by campaigning on everything else, they'll be better-placed for the election campaign, which never rests only on one issue. Perhaps - but I think people need to be persuaded that the Brexit plan makes sense, even if they don't especially like it.
Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan", despite all the diversions thrown to convince us that there was one. Hence:
1. Nothing will happen until late in the day of 19th October.
2. At that point, Johnson will meet with her Maj, say that as the Government cannot command a majority in the Commons, and as he is not as he says prepared to invite the EU keep the UK in the EU on whatever terms it likes, then his Government cannot continue in office and he will cease to be PM with immediate effect.
3. Johnson will make it known that he made no recommendation to the Queen as to whom should succeed him.
4. The Queen nonetheless will send for Corbyn (as she surely must, unlike Bercow she I think respects constitutional precedent).
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
6. The next parliamentary day (Monday 21st), Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, which will fall, Corbyn having served his very short lived purpose by serving the notice over the weekend.
7. No other government will be formed within the 14 day period which can command a majority and we will face a GE in late October or early November.
I am not going to predict which party or coalition of parties will win that election, but I think this simple course will give Johnson and the Conservatives their best chance.
The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.
Yep, the Remain Alliance is now very tight - Boris would be mad to let in Corbyn on the assumption he would lose a VONC. As with prats voting in Labour's leadership contest for Corbyn to ensure 'an open debate', so letting in Corbyn to No.10 would be a massive error.
The Tories have far more chance of winning the next general election putting Corbyn in to be Neville Chamberlain and extend than they do if Boris stays in No 10 to extend.
Though more likely a temporary PM doing the extending would be neither
The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.
Yep, the Remain Alliance is now very tight - Boris would be mad to let in Corbyn on the assumption he would lose a VONC. As with prats voting in Labour's leadership contest for Corbyn to ensure 'an open debate', so letting in Corbyn to No.10 would be a massive error.
No - Boris is Brilliant. It's all a ruse. Once he has persuaded everyone he's stupid, destroyed the government's majority, pissed off the House of Lords, alienated Merkel, Macron and Varadkar, the master-stroke will be to put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street.
Once he's done that, he'll have everyone just where he wants them!
You left out getting himself put in prison. That’s all part of the plan to become the next Nelson Mandela.
You're so right. We just need to work on a plan of getting Boris into prison and putting Corbyn into Downing Street, and then we shall have achieved absolute perfection.
Maybe Cummings will even pay us for the plan.
Putting Boris into prison to stop Brexit is actually the best way to ensure a Tory landslide at the next general election
There is a very British thing called irony. Even though extremists and blind followers find it difficult to understand, it maybe worthwhile you looking it up!
@Mr kyf_100 !!! Yawn. I once again have to point out that a large part of the "Establishment" is for Brexit. A convenient substitute for real substantive constitutional change. By the way, has your Establishment Fixation Related Myopia prevented you from noticing that the current Brexit supporting PM went to Eton, Oxford, is a Privy Councillor, a Tory MP, speaks as though he has ten plums up his arse and is buddies with fellow Etonian and Arch-Brexiteer, bench slouching Jacob Rees Mogg?
All politicians are to some extent, the establishment. But the ones you've listed aren't the ones trying to block, subvert and betray a democratic vote.
It is one thing to be a member of the establishment, it is another entirely to be part of an establishment stitch up.
I say let the remainers have their way - then let the rest of us have our say.
No-deal is the ultimate establishment stitch up. To have persuaded the gullible that they have supported self-harm that will only benefit the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg is pure genius. Thankfully it looks unlikely to work
I don’t know lots of them but time and time again when I challenge No Dealers on Brexit they say they’d rather go back in than have a “half-way house”. It’s everything or nothing for them.
As I’ve said before the gap between Revokers and No Dealers is much smaller than either side would like to admit.
Interesting that even among Leave voters, slightly less than half think no-deal would be a success. A ringing endorsement from Leave voters then! Many of us have been saying for a long time that there is absolutely no mandate for no-deal. Soft Brexit is the only logical conclusion and fair outcome.
Again, to my astonishment, you and I agree!
Most people in the country are far more practical than our politicians.
I mean, I'd be fine with a Soft Brexit if such a thing is even possible anymore, but I'm not sure it will satisfy the public.
It can't be a coincidence that both Labour's and the Tories' polling fell off a cliff this spring the minute they went into talks with eachother to find a compromise...
Interesting that even among Leave voters, slightly less than half think no-deal would be a success. A ringing endorsement from Leave voters then! Many of us have been saying for a long time that there is absolutely no mandate for no-deal. Soft Brexit is the only logical conclusion and fair outcome.
Again, to my astonishment, you and I agree!
Most people in the country are far more practical than our politicians.
I mean, I'd be fine with a Soft Brexit if such a thing is even possible anymore, but I'm not sure it will satisfy the public.
It can't be a coincidence that both Labour's and the Tories' polling fell off a cliff this spring the minute they went into talks with eachother to find a compromise...
Au contraire.
My reading of the situation (from extensive consultation with friends, family and colleagues over recent weeks) is that the 70% are well up for this and willing to compromise.
It’s the politicians who are pandering to their loud activist extremes.
My personal experience is similar to yours, and has been all along - very few of the Leave voters, and none of the Remain voters, I know in real life have ever felt that strongly about it, I've never known anyone in real life to be spitting with fury at politicians blocking their preferred outcome, and the most common sentiment I've heard from people on both sides has always been "why can't they just work it out one way or the other".
But the European elections, and a lot of the polling since, suggests my and your anecdotal experiences aren't typical.
The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.
Yep, the Remain Alliance is now very tight - Boris would be mad to let in Corbyn on the assumption he would lose a VONC. As with prats voting in Labour's leadership contest for Corbyn to ensure 'an open debate', so letting in Corbyn to No.10 would be a massive error.
No - Boris is Brilliant. It's all a ruse. Once he has persuaded everyone he's stupid, destroyed the government's majority, pissed off the House of Lords, alienated Merkel, Macron and Varadkar, the master-stroke will be to put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street.
Once he's done that, he'll have everyone just where he wants them!
You left out getting himself put in prison. That’s all part of the plan to become the next Nelson Mandela.
You're so right. We just need to work on a plan of getting Boris into prison and putting Corbyn into Downing Street, and then we shall have achieved absolute perfection.
Maybe Cummings will even pay us for the plan.
Putting Boris into prison to stop Brexit is actually the best way to ensure a Tory landslide at the next general election
You think /anything/ is the best way to ensure a Tory landslide.
No - Boris is Brilliant. It's all a ruse. Once he has persuaded everyone he's stupid, destroyed the government's majority, pissed off the House of Lords, alienated Merkel, Macron and Varadkar, the master-stroke will be to put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street. Once he's done that, he'll have everyone just where he wants them!
You left out getting himself put in prison. That’s all part of the plan to become the next Nelson Mandela.
Haha. "Free, Free Bozo-ho- Johnson" has a certain ring to it!
But then the Young Conservatives will be campaigning to hang him.
The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.
Yep, the Remain Alliance is now very tight - Boris would be mad to let in Corbyn on the assumption he would lose a VONC. As with prats voting in Labour's leadership contest for Corbyn to ensure 'an open debate', so letting in Corbyn to No.10 would be a massive error.
No - Boris is Brilliant. It's all a ruse. Once he has persuaded everyone he's stupid, destroyed the government's majority, pissed off the House of Lords, alienated Merkel, Macron and Varadkar, the master-stroke will be to put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street.
Once he's done that, he'll have everyone just where he wants them!
You left out getting himself put in prison. That’s all part of the plan to become the next Nelson Mandela.
You're so right. We just need to work on a plan of getting Boris into prison and putting Corbyn into Downing Street, and then we shall have achieved absolute perfection.
Maybe Cummings will even pay us for the plan.
I could live with Johnson, Cummings and Corbyn all going to prison for 27 years.
But it doesn't seem very fair on the other prisoners.
Put them in the same cell. You've got yourself a sitcom.
Anecdote alert. I spoke to someone from a magazine company selling me advertising today, in person. I'm based in Scotland.
ME: 'We're having a brilliant year so far, great to be reporting we're ahead of target each month. Who knows what will happen in the next few months though (with a bit of a mild "eek" expression and eyebrow raise).'
This is cue for people to get what they think of Brexit off their chest.
HER: "I honestly think it might have been better for Boris to get his way."
This is not a full transcript. And is a sample of one. But it surprised me.
Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan", despite all the diversions thrown to convince us that there was one. Hence:
1. Nothing will happen until late in the day of 19/10
2. At that point, Johnson will.. say that as the Government cannot command a majority in the Commons, and as he is not as he says prepared to invite the EU keep the UK in the EU on whatever terms, then his Government cannot continue and he will cease to be PM with immediate effect.
3. Johnson will make no recommendation to the Queen as to whom should succeed him.
4. The Queen nonetheless will send for Corbyn (as she must, respecting precedent). In
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
6. The next parliamentary day (Monday 21st), Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, which will fall, Corbyn having served his very short lived purpose by serving the notice over the weekend.
7. No other government will be formed within the 14 day period which can command a majority and we will face a GE in late October or early November.
I am not going to predict which party or coalition of parties will win that election, but I think this simple course will give Johnson and the Conservatives their best chance.
Possible up to 5.
6 looks unlikely: the temporary coalition would hold up to 1 November at least to shepherd the extension over the line. It might well hold a bit longer. You’re more likely to see Jeremy Corbyn proactively agree to an early election then than see a successful vote of no confidence against his wishes.
On 7, you have to allow at least 25 working days after the 14 days. So we’d be looking at a Christmas election.
Yes, partially a slip of the pen on my part re 7. I had meant late November or early December following a 21st October no confidence vote although it could well be mid December. However, regarding 6, so long as no alternative government of Brexiteers is formed as soon as Corbyn's falls (and how conceivably could there be one which could survive a confidence vote?) aren't we over the line anyway?
I think Johnson picks his own time to VoNC and may return the favour by holding Corbyn in office if he too finds difficulty in renegotiation. One might even see him blocking a dissolution if things look tricky.
There is even the added bonus of making the LDs stew as they set up, but cannot bring down, Corbyn.
The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.
Yep, the Remain Alliance is now very tight - Boris would be mad to let in Corbyn on the assumption he would lose a VONC. As with prats voting in Labour's leadership contest for Corbyn to ensure 'an open debate', so letting in Corbyn to No.10 would be a massive error.
No - Boris is Brilliant. It's all a ruse. Once he has persuaded everyone he's stupid, destroyed the government's majority, pissed off the House of Lords, alienated Merkel, Macron and Varadkar, the master-stroke will be to put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street.
Once he's done that, he'll have everyone just where he wants them!
You left out getting himself put in prison. That’s all part of the plan to become the next Nelson Mandela.
You're so right. We just need to work on a plan of getting Boris into prison and putting Corbyn into Downing Street, and then we shall have achieved absolute perfection.
Maybe Cummings will even pay us for the plan.
Putting Boris into prison to stop Brexit is actually the best way to ensure a Tory landslide at the next general election
I'm so proud that I've finally obtained your approval for my humble ideas.
All I would ask is some small acknowledgment perhaps, if they are considered useful.
Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan", despite all the diversions thrown to convince us that there was one. Hence:
1. Nothing will happen until late in the day of 19th October.
2. At that point, Johnson will meet with her Maj, say that as the Government cannot command a majority in the Commons, and as he is not as he says prepared to invite the EU keep the UK in the EU on whatever terms it likes, then his Government cannot continue in office and he will cease to be PM with immediate effect.
3. Johnson will make it known that he made no recommendation to the Queen as to whom should succeed him.
4. The Queen nonetheless will send for Corbyn (as she surely must, unlike Bercow she I think respects constitutional precedent).
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
6. The next parliamentary day (Monday 21st), Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, which will fall, Corbyn having served his very short lived purpose by serving the notice over the weekend.
7. No other government will be formed within the 14 day period which can command a majority and we will face a GE in late October or early November.
I am not going to predict which party or coalition of parties will win that election, but I think this simple course will give Johnson and the Conservatives their best chance.
The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.
Yep, the Remain Alliance is now very tight - Boris would be mad to let in Corbyn on the assumption he would lose a VONC. As with prats voting in Labour's leadership contest for Corbyn to ensure 'an open debate', so letting in Corbyn to No.10 would be a massive error.
The Tories have far more chance of winning the next general election putting Corbyn in to be Neville Chamberlain and extend than they do if Boris stays in No 10 to extend.
Though more likely a temporary PM doing the extending would be neither
Hey, we might just win Brexit-Bullshit-Bingo with HYUFD tonight. He has already mentioned Neville Chamberlain. Will he mention traitors, quislings or THE WAR?!
Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan", despite all the diversions thrown to convince us that there was one. Hence:
1. Nothing will happen until late in the day of 19th October.
2. At that point, Johnson will meet with her Maj, say that as the Government cannot command a majority in the Commons, and as he is not as he says prepared to invite the EU keep the UK in the EU on whatever terms it likes, then his Government cannot continue in office and he will cease to be PM with immediate effect.
3. Johnson will make it known that he made no recommendation to the Queen as to whom should succeed him.
4. The Queen nonetheless will send for Corbyn (as she surely must, unlike Bercow she I think respects constitutional precedent).
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
6. The next parliamentary day (Monday 21st), Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, which will fall, Corbyn having served his very short lived purpose by serving the notice over the weekend.
7. No other government will be formed within the 14 day period which can command a majority and we will face a GE in late October or early November.
I am not going to predict which party or coalition of parties will win that election, but I think this simple course will give Johnson and the Conservatives their best chance.
No where near certain Johnson's VONC would pass. Corbyn could offer Lib-Dems a "People's Vote" and SNP another Scottish referendum (whether he is serious about fulfilling any of that is another but he could certainly astrong them along for several months)
Don't assume Libs and SNP will go along with the Conservatives VONC - Especially given the way everyone hates Boris.
My own view is that if Jezza is PM on 1st November he will still be in Downing St. on 1st April and there will be no general election in between.
It's not nailed on certain that Johnson's VONC would succeed, but I am pretty confident that it would. The SNP wants an early election that on current polls will lead to a result pretty close to the one it achieved in 2015. LDs are riding high in the polls (in relative terms for them at least). Both will have succeeded in avoiding Brexit on 31st October. Both will be anxious that Corbyn is not given the opportunity to gain a modicum of status as PM. The LDs should also be fearful of being seen to have opened the door to Corbyn. The 22 ex Conservative MPs would not be keen to back Corbyn, nor would those ex Lab MPs who left the party because of him.
@Mr kyf_100 !!! Yawn. I once again have to point out that a large part of the "Establishment" is for Brexit. A convenient substitute for real substantive constitutional change. By the way, has your Establishment Fixation Related Myopia prevented you from noticing that the current Brexit supporting PM went to Eton, Oxford, is a Privy Councillor, a Tory MP, speaks as though he has ten plums up his arse and is buddies with fellow Etonian and Arch-Brexiteer, bench slouching Jacob Rees Mogg?
All politicians are to some extent, the establishment. But the ones you've listed aren't the ones trying to block, subvert and betray a democratic vote.
It is one thing to be a member of the establishment, it is another entirely to be part of an establishment stitch up.
I say let the remainers have their way - then let the rest of us have our say.
No-deal is the ultimate establishment stitch up. To have persuaded the gullible that they have supported self-harm that will only benefit the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg is pure genius. Thankfully it looks unlikely to work
They don’t see that they are being taken for a ride by the Uber rich then there is little that you can do.
The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.
Yep, the Remain Alliance is now very tight - Boris would be mad to let in Corbyn on the assumption he would lose a VONC. As with prats voting in Labour's leadership contest for Corbyn to ensure 'an open debate', so letting in Corbyn to No.10 would be a massive error.
No - Boris is Brilliant. It's all a ruse. Once he has persuaded everyone he's stupid, destroyed the government's majority, pissed off the House of Lords, alienated Merkel, Macron and Varadkar, the master-stroke will be to put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street.
Once he's done that, he'll have everyone just where he wants them!
You left out getting himself put in prison. That’s all part of the plan to become the next Nelson Mandela.
You're so right. We just need to work on a plan of getting Boris into prison and putting Corbyn into Downing Street, and then we shall have achieved absolute perfection.
Maybe Cummings will even pay us for the plan.
Putting Boris into prison to stop Brexit is actually the best way to ensure a Tory landslide at the next general election
Weren't you saying earlier that Boris leading the Conservatives victoriously into opposition would be a huge success?
Finally some polling that confirms my personal perception that leaving is pretty popular in my bit of the south, and not especially something that working class people are more keen on than middle class ones.
No where near certain Johnson's VONC would pass. Corbyn could offer Lib-Dems a "People's Vote" and SNP another Scottish referendum (whether he is serious about fulfilling any of that is another but he could certainly astrong them along for several months)
Don't assume Libs and SNP will go along with the Conservatives VONC - Especially given the way everyone hates Boris.
My own view is that if Jezza is PM on 1st November he will still be in Downing St. on 1st April and there will be no general election in between.
It is in the interests of the SNP and the LibDems (and the Tories) to have an election with Corbyn as Labour leader.
The SNP realise this. Whether the LibDems do is hard to say.
Also, surely SNP and Lib-Dems would have to make clear whether or not they WOULD support Jezza in a VONC before HMQ would grant him permission to become PM?
I really can't see Her Majesty being put in a positon whether she asks Corbyn to form a government on 19th October and then the government immediatly falls on 22nd October.
If it's not clear that he can command a majority of the House when HMQ asks him the question then he won't be able to form a government?
For that reason alone I suspect Lib-Dems and SNP will have to promise to support him for at least ONE VONC/Queens Speech.
@Mr kyf_100 !!! Yawn. I once again have to point out that a large part of the "Establishment" is for Brexit. A convenient substitute for real substantive constitutional change. By the way, has your Establishment Fixation Related Myopia prevented you from noticing that the current Brexit supporting PM went to Eton, Oxford, is a Privy Councillor, a Tory MP, speaks as though he has ten plums up his arse and is buddies with fellow Etonian and Arch-Brexiteer, bench slouching Jacob Rees Mogg?
All politicians are to some extent, the establishment. But the ones you've listed aren't the ones trying to block, subvert and betray a democratic vote.
It is one thing to be a member of the establishment, it is another entirely to be part of an establishment stitch up.
I say let the remainers have their way - then let the rest of us have our say.
No-deal is the ultimate establishment stitch up. To have persuaded the gullible that they have supported self-harm that will only benefit the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg is pure genius. Thankfully it looks unlikely to work
I don’t know lots of them but time and time again when I challenge No Dealers on Brexit they say they’d rather go back in than have a “half-way house”. It’s everything or nothing for them.
As I’ve said before the gap between Revokers and No Dealers is much smaller than either side would like to admit.
A inability to compromise is not a purity of principle, but the supreme stupidity of the politically insane.
Anecdote alert. I spoke to someone from a magazine company selling me advertising today, in person. I'm based in Scotland.
ME: 'We're having a brilliant year so far, great to be reporting we're ahead of target each month. Who knows what will happen in the next few months though (with a bit of a mild "eek" expression and eyebrow raise).'
This is cue for people to get what they think of Brexit off their chest.
HER: "I honestly think it might have been better for Boris to get his way."
This is not a full transcript. And is a sample of one. But it surprised me.
Was she referring to Brexit or some more personal offer that she passed up?
Finally some polling that confirms my personal perception that leaving is pretty popular in my bit of the south, and not especially something that working class people are more keen on than middle class ones.
So why all this bullshit about Labour Northern heartlands. They don't exist.
Unusually for a London-based reporter reporting on a London-based pollster's poll, it doesn't distinguish between the quite remainy northern cities and the quite leavey northern towns. The latter form one segment of labour heartlands and are much more marginal.
Edit: don't forget to play your subsample klaxons too
The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.
Yep, the Remain Alliance is now very tight - Boris would be mad to let in Corbyn on the assumption he would lose a VONC. As with prats voting in Labour's leadership contest for Corbyn to ensure 'an open debate', so letting in Corbyn to No.10 would be a massive error.
No - Boris is Brilliant. It's all a ruse. Once he has persuaded everyone he's stupid, destroyed the government's majority, pissed off the House of Lords, alienated Merkel, Macron and Varadkar, the master-stroke will be to put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street.
Once he's done that, he'll have everyone just where he wants them!
You left out getting himself put in prison. That’s all part of the plan to become the next Nelson Mandela.
You're so right. We just need to work on a plan of getting Boris into prison and putting Corbyn into Downing Street, and then we shall have achieved absolute perfection.
Maybe Cummings will even pay us for the plan.
Putting Boris into prison to stop Brexit is actually the best way to ensure a Tory landslide at the next general election
The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.
Yep, the Remain Alliance is now very tight - Boris would be mad to let in Corbyn on the assumption he would lose a VONC. As with prats voting in Labour's leadership contest for Corbyn to ensure 'an open debate', so letting in Corbyn to No.10 would be a massive error.
No - Boris is Brilliant. It's all a ruse. Once he has persuaded everyone he's stupid, destroyed the government's majority, pissed off the House of Lords, alienated Merkel, Macron and Varadkar, the master-stroke will be to put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street.
Once he's done that, he'll have everyone just where he wants them!
You left out getting himself put in prison. That’s all part of the plan to become the next Nelson Mandela.
You're so right. We just need to work on a plan of getting Boris into prison and putting Corbyn into Downing Street, and then we shall have achieved absolute perfection.
Maybe Cummings will even pay us for the plan.
I could live with Johnson, Cummings and Corbyn all going to prison for 27 years.
But it doesn't seem very fair on the other prisoners.
Put them in the same cell. You've got yourself a sitcom. The bemused ingenue, blithering idiot, and too clever by half evil schemer.
Can agree with the first two, but no way is Corbyn a 'too clever by half evil schemer.' He's a thick, posh, lying reactionary.
This is one aspect of the new session that suddenly struck me recently. What happens if the government loses the vote on the Queen's Speech?
Presumably there will be such a vote not long after the new Parliamentary session begins. I would have thought that the rebel Tories would mostly vote for it, unless it included something to provoke them, like an "exiting the EU without a deal" Bill. Even if they did vote for it the DUP may not if the NI backstop is then the plan. It's not a formality is it?
What happens if that vote is lost? It's not a confidence vote as per the form set down in the FTPA, but HMG would certainly not have the confidence of the House.
Finally some polling that confirms my personal perception that leaving is pretty popular in my bit of the south, and not especially something that working class people are more keen on than middle class ones.
Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan", despite all the diversions thrown to convince us that there was one. Hence:
1. Nothing will happen until late in the day of 19th October.
2. At that point, Johnson will meet with her Maj, say that as the Government cannot command a majority in the Commons, and as he is not as he says prepared to invite the EU keep the UK in the EU on whatever terms it likes, then his Government cannot continue in office and he will cease to be PM with immediate effect.
3. Johnson will make it known that he made no recommendation to the Queen as to whom should succeed him.
4. The Queen nonetheless will send for Corbyn (as she surely must, unlike Bercow she I think respects constitutional precedent).
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
6. The next parliamentary day (Monday 21st), Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, which will fall, Corbyn having served his very short lived purpose by serving the notice over the weekend.
7. No other government will be formed within the 14 day period which can command a majority and we will face a GE in late October or early November.
I am not going to predict which party or coalition of parties will win that election, but I think this simple course will give Johnson and the Conservatives their best chance.
The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.
Yep, the Remain Alliance is now very tight - Boris would be mad to let in Corbyn on the assumption he would lose a VONC. As with prats voting in Labour's leadership contest for Corbyn to ensure 'an open debate', so letting in Corbyn to No.10 would be a massive error.
Besides, running away at the crucial moment, then expecting to walk back in when someone else has defused the timebomb... It may work, but it's not a good look.
Boris' plan A to defuse the timebomb was to get a majority on the 14th then whip through Mays deal with NI only backstop on 31st October
Anecdote alert. I spoke to someone from a magazine company selling me advertising today, in person. I'm based in Scotland.
ME: 'We're having a brilliant year so far, great to be reporting we're ahead of target each month. Who knows what will happen in the next few months though (with a bit of a mild "eek" expression and eyebrow raise).'
This is cue for people to get what they think of Brexit off their chest.
HER: "I honestly think it might have been better for Boris to get his way."
This is not a full transcript. And is a sample of one. But it surprised me.
It is remarkable how every anecdote PBers report always seems to align with their own view.
@Mr kyf_100 !!! Yawn. I once again have to point out that a large part of the "Establishment" is for Brexit. A convenient substitute for real substantive constitutional change. By the way, has your Establishment Fixation Related Myopia prevented you from noticing that the current Brexit supporting PM went to Eton, Oxford, is a Privy Councillor, a Tory MP, speaks as though he has ten plums up his arse and is buddies with fellow Etonian and Arch-Brexiteer, bench slouching Jacob Rees Mogg?
All politicians are to some extent, the establishment. But the ones you've listed aren't the ones trying to block, subvert and betray a democratic vote.
It is one thing to be a member of the establishment, it is another entirely to be part of an establishment stitch up.
I say let the remainers have their way - then let the rest of us have our say.
No-deal is the ultimate establishment stitch up. To have persuaded the gullible that they have supported self-harm that will only benefit the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg is pure genius. Thankfully it looks unlikely to work
I don’t know lots of them but time and time again when I challenge No Dealers on Brexit they say they’d rather go back in than have a “half-way house”. It’s everything or nothing for them.
As I’ve said before the gap between Revokers and No Dealers is much smaller than either side would like to admit.
A inability to compromise is not a purity of principle, but the supreme stupidity of the politically insane.
And, we seem to have plenty of that in our politics at the moment.
The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.
Yep, the Remain Alliance is now very tight - Boris would be mad to let in Corbyn on the assumption he would lose a VONC. As with prats voting in Labour's leadership contest for Corbyn to ensure 'an open debate', so letting in Corbyn to No.10 would be a massive error.
No - Boris is Brilliant. It's all a ruse. Once he has persuaded everyone he's stupid, destroyed the government's majority, pissed off the House of Lords, alienated Merkel, Macron and Varadkar, the master-stroke will be to put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street.
Once he's done that, he'll have everyone just where he wants them!
You left out getting himself put in prison. That’s all part of the plan to become the next Nelson Mandela.
You're so right. We just need to work on a plan of getting Boris into prison and putting Corbyn into Downing Street, and then we shall have achieved absolute perfection.
Maybe Cummings will even pay us for the plan.
I could live with Johnson, Cummings and Corbyn all going to prison for 27 years.
But it doesn't seem very fair on the other prisoners.
Put them in the same cell. You've got yourself a sitcom.
And called porridge served cold
Brilliant!
Boris = Fletcher Cummings = Godber
Corbyn = Grouty
Maybe there would even be room for Dominic Raab as Cyril Heslop ("I read a book once - green it was")
@Mr kyf_100 !!! Yawn. I once again have to point out that a large part of the "Establishment" is for Brexit. A convenient substitute for real substantive constitutional change. By the way, has your Establishment Fixation Related Myopia prevented you from noticing that the current Brexit supporting PM went to Eton, Oxford, is a Privy Councillor, a Tory MP, speaks as though he has ten plums up his arse and is buddies with fellow Etonian and Arch-Brexiteer, bench slouching Jacob Rees Mogg?
All politicians are to some extent, the establishment. But the ones you've listed aren't the ones trying to block, subvert and betray a democratic vote.
It is one thing to be a member of the establishment, it is another entirely to be part of an establishment stitch up.
I say let the remainers have their way - then let the rest of us have our say.
No-deal is the ultimate establishment stitch up. To have persuaded the gullible that they have supported self-harm that will only benefit the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg is pure genius. Thankfully it looks unlikely to work
Maybe it is, maybe it's not.
My point was that if remainers get their way now and keep us in the EU, there will be a price to pay when the voters finally get a say.
Remaining now doesn't end this. It just allows the wound to fester and one side has to be completely and thoroughly defeated before we can all move on. But remain/revoke now doesn't defeat brexit, it merely moves it down the line to the next GE.
The two best solutions from here I think are either the softest of soft EEA/EFTA brexits - which most voters would be glad for, just to see the back of this whole sorry episode - but the headbangers on either side will never allow, or a short sharp shock caused by a chaotic no-deal brexit that forces us to rejoin.
Anecdote alert. I spoke to someone from a magazine company selling me advertising today, in person. I'm based in Scotland.
ME: 'We're having a brilliant year so far, great to be reporting we're ahead of target each month. Who knows what will happen in the next few months though (with a bit of a mild "eek" expression and eyebrow raise).'
This is cue for people to get what they think of Brexit off their chest.
HER: "I honestly think it might have been better for Boris to get his way."
This is not a full transcript. And is a sample of one. But it surprised me.
It is remarkable how every anecdote PBers report always seems to align with their own view.
On the contrary, I was with a taxi driver the other day and he was slagging off the EU and particularly remainers. He was incredibly knowledgeable on the subject and I found myself overwhelmed by his arguments.
Finally some polling that confirms my personal perception that leaving is pretty popular in my bit of the south, and not especially something that working class people are more keen on than middle class ones.
Interesting that even among Leave voters, slightly less than half think no-deal would be a success. A ringing endorsement from Leave voters then! Many of us have been saying for a long time that there is absolutely no mandate for no-deal. Soft Brexit is the only logical conclusion and fair outcome.
Again, to my astonishment, you and I agree!
Most people in the country are far more practical than our politicians.
I mean, I'd be fine with a Soft Brexit if such a thing is even possible anymore, but I'm not sure it will satisfy the public.
It can't be a coincidence that both Labour's and the Tories' polling fell off a cliff this spring the minute they went into talks with eachother to find a compromise...
Interesting that even among Leave voters, slightly less than half think no-deal would be a success. A ringing endorsement from Leave voters then! Many of us have been saying for a long time that there is absolutely no mandate for no-deal. Soft Brexit is the only logical conclusion and fair outcome.
Again, to my astonishment, you and I agree!
Most people in the country are far more practical than our politicians.
I mean, I'd be fine with a Soft Brexit if such a thing is even possible anymore, but I'm not sure it will satisfy the public.
It can't be a coincidence that both Labour's and the Tories' polling fell off a cliff this spring the minute they went into talks with eachother to find a compromise...
Au contraire.
My reading of the situation (from extensive consultation with friends, family and colleagues over recent weeks) is that the 70% are well up for this and willing to compromise.
It’s the politicians who are pandering to their loud activist extremes.
Tend to agree. No Deal is the punishment for MPs who refuse to respect the referendum result, not the ambition. But they keep voting for a deal to be the worst that can happen, with Remaining (ignoring/wilfully obstructing the referendum result) their aim
Anecdote alert. I spoke to someone from a magazine company selling me advertising today, in person. I'm based in Scotland.
ME: 'We're having a brilliant year so far, great to be reporting we're ahead of target each month. Who knows what will happen in the next few months though (with a bit of a mild "eek" expression and eyebrow raise).'
This is cue for people to get what they think of Brexit off their chest.
HER: "I honestly think it might have been better for Boris to get his way."
This is not a full transcript. And is a sample of one. But it surprised me.
It is remarkable how every anecdote PBers report always seems to align with their own view.
On the contrary, I was with a taxi driver the other day and he was slagging off the EU and particularly remainers. He was incredibly knowledgeable on the subject and I found myself overwhelmed by his arguments.
Sorry just felt like ringing the changes a bit
When I am in a taxi and the taxi driver starts going on about the EU, I usually say something like "didn't we leave last year" or "are you sure? I'm sure there was a vote or something". Some of them get genuinely sad or offended and try to explain it to me. That way I find out what they think and they don't find out what I think. Which suits me just fine...
Finally some polling that confirms my personal perception that leaving is pretty popular in my bit of the south, and not especially something that working class people are more keen on than middle class ones.
Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan", despite all the diversions thrown to convince us that there was one. Hence:
1. Nothing will happen until late in the day of 19th October.
2. At that point, Johnson will meet with her Maj, say that as the Government cannot command a majority in the Commons, and as he is not as he says prepared to invite the EU keep the UK in the EU on whatever terms it likes, then his Government cannot continue in office and he will cease to be PM with immediate effect.
3. Johnson will make it known that he made no recommendation to the Queen as to whom should succeed him.
4. The Queen nonetheless will send for Corbyn (as she surely must, unlike Bercow she I think respects constitutional precedent).
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
6. The next parliamentary day (Monday 21st), Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, which will fall, Corbyn having served his very short lived purpose by serving the notice over the weekend.
7. No other government will be formed within the 14 day period which can command a majority and we will face a GE in late October or early November.
I am not going to predict which party or coalition of parties will win that election, but I think this simple course will give Johnson and the Conservatives their best chance.
The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.
Yep, the Remain Alliance is now very tight - Boris would be mad to let in Corbyn on the assumption he would lose a VONC. As with prats voting in Labour's leadership contest for Corbyn to ensure 'an open debate', so letting in Corbyn to No.10 would be a massive error.
I'm of the opinion now that we just let the remainers revoke and wait for PM Farage in 2022.
Unless, of course, anyone really thinks that an establisment stitch up to cancel Brexit in 2019 will settle the matter once and for all?
I think the chances of revoke without a second referendum are very slim.
With a second vote it would be perfectly legitimate, without it would be a gift to the faragists. Real shame these pesky remainers won't fall into the bear traps the cunning leavers keep setting for them
Finally some polling that confirms my personal perception that leaving is pretty popular in my bit of the south, and not especially something that working class people are more keen on than middle class ones.
Finally some polling that confirms my personal perception that leaving is pretty popular in my bit of the south, and not especially something that working class people are more keen on than middle class ones.
Interesting that Leave is now most popular in the marginals rich Midlands with 46% backing Leave to just 43% for Remain
The interesting number is 20% of LD supporters would vote Leave while only 18% of Conservatives would vote Remain.
Actually, no, I agree with HYUFD. It is interesting that the Midlands is the most pro-Leave area given that the backbone of its economy is high end manufacturing extremely dependent on access to the single market.
In fact I'd go so far as to say it's truly amazing.
@Mr kyf_100 !!! Yawn. I once again have to point out that a large part of the "Establishment" is for Brexit. A convenient substitute for real substantive constitutional change. By the way, has your Establishment Fixation Related Myopia prevented you from noticing that the current Brexit supporting PM went to Eton, Oxford, is a Privy Councillor, a Tory MP, speaks as though he has ten plums up his arse and is buddies with fellow Etonian and Arch-Brexiteer, bench slouching Jacob Rees Mogg?
All politicians are to some extent, the establishment. But the ones you've listed aren't the ones trying to block, subvert and betray a democratic vote.
It is one thing to be a member of the establishment, it is another entirely to be part of an establishment stitch up.
I say let the remainers have their way - then let the rest of us have our say.
No deal and revoke are such unstable outcomes that we are more likely to be in the EU in 10 years time if we no deal than revoke. Discuss!
As some of you know my wife and I leave on a round trip cruise from Southampton to Nova Scotia, New England and New York on Saturday and return on Tuesday 8th October. This is my dear wife's 80th birthday present fulfilling a dream we have both shared since the the early 1960's. When I booked it as a surprise present 18 months ago little did we think we would be leaving our shores only to return approx 4 weeks later to a UK that has totally lost it's way.
I have decided to prorogued myself from this wonderful forum (unless something earth shattering happens) but before I go I would just like to make one or two comments.
I utterly reject Boris nee Cummings prorogation of the HOC which acted as a catalyst for the opposition and I have no idea why anyone thinks Cummings is any good and certainly he has been a disaster so far.
I also condemn Boris nee Cummings sacking of 21 good conservative mps prompting my resignation from the party and demonstrating just how clueless they both are
I also condemn Corbyn and others for running scared of a GE
I accept there are strong feelings from leavers and remainers and there must be a considerable number like me seeking a compromise. I have always wanted that to happen hence why I backed TM deal. Listening again to Stephen Kinnock this lunchtime he seems confident that, with moderate conservative and many of his labour colleagues the 'Kinnock' amendment may well go through in Mid October
Now I have no idea if this is the case and plenty will say that is 'for the birds', but as we cruise across the Atlantic and back I just want to say that I hope everyone continues their vigorous debate, which is the strength of this forum, but those who feel their case is strengthened with rather colourful and hyperbolic descriptions, it really is not
I look forward to contributing as and when I can and wish all sides and none an interesting continuing political debate
Have a great time BG! We've just got back from Nova Scotia and it's very beautiful. Assuming you're docking in Halifax I'd recommend an excursion to Peggy's Cove.
Thanks rpjs and yes, Peggy's Cove was the first excursion booked.
Lots of Scots emigrated to Nova Scotia, hence the name, including my wife's forebears and of course there is a shared interest in anything to do with the fishing communities
Have a great crossing and trip. Halifax is great, except in the winter. I had a peek at Canada today, across the river at Niagara. The falls are impressive if not as high as I imagined, but the town on the Canadian side looks uglier even than the American one.
I think the chances of revoke without a second referendum are very slim.
With a second vote it would be perfectly legitimate, without it would be a gift to the faragists. Real shame these pesky remainers won't fall into the bear traps the cunning leavers keep setting for them
Anecdote alert. I spoke to someone from a magazine company selling me advertising today, in person. I'm based in Scotland.
I don't doubt you, but (as a former magazine editor) I spent much of my life dealing with magazine ad sales staff, and none of them are the sharpest knives in the drawer. Most seemed to have had a part of their personality surgically removed at birth.
My favourite was the senior sales manager who couldn't even spell "ad". He would email clients saying "Thanks for booking an add". (a) It's only two letters, how can you misspell a two-letter word (b) IT'S YOUR SODDING JOB FOR CRYING OUT LOUD
Anecdote alert. I spoke to someone from a magazine company selling me advertising today, in person. I'm based in Scotland.
ME: 'We're having a brilliant year so far, great to be reporting we're ahead of target each month. Who knows what will happen in the next few months though (with a bit of a mild "eek" expression and eyebrow raise).'
This is cue for people to get what they think of Brexit off their chest.
HER: "I honestly think it might have been better for Boris to get his way."
This is not a full transcript. And is a sample of one. But it surprised me.
It is remarkable how every anecdote PBers report always seems to align with their own view.
On the contrary, I was with a taxi driver the other day and he was slagging off the EU and particularly remainers. He was incredibly knowledgeable on the subject and I found myself overwhelmed by his arguments.
Sorry just felt like ringing the changes a bit
When I am in a taxi and the taxi driver starts going on about the EU, I usually say something like "didn't we leave last year" or "are you sure? I'm sure there was a vote or something". Some of them get genuinely sad or offended and try to explain it to me. That way I find out what they think and they don't find out what I think. Which suits me just fine...
Taxi drivers are permanently offended. That's why they're always running down cyclists.
As some of you know my wife and I leave on a round trip cruise from Southampton to Nova Scotia, New England and New York on Saturday and return on Tuesday 8th October. This is my dear wife's 80th birthday present fulfilling a dream we have both shared since the the early 1960's. When I booked it as a surprise present 18 months ago little did we think we would be leaving our shores only to return approx 4 weeks later to a UK that has totally lost it's way.
I have decided to prorogued myself from this wonderful forum (unless something earth shattering happens) but before I go I would just like to make one or two comments.
I utterly reject Boris nee Cummings prorogation of the HOC which acted as a catalyst for the opposition and I have no idea why anyone thinks Cummings is any good and certainly he has been a disaster so far.
I also condemn Boris nee Cummings sacking of 21 good conservative mps prompting my resignation from the party and demonstrating just how clueless they both are
I also condemn Corbyn and others for running scared of a GE
I accept there are strong feelings from leavers and remainers and there must be a considerable number like me seeking a compromise. I have always wanted that to happen hence why I backed TM deal. Listening again to Stephen Kinnock this lunchtime he seems confident that, with moderate conservative and many of his labour colleagues the 'Kinnock' amendment may well go through in Mid October
Now I have no idea if this is the case and plenty will say that is 'for the birds', but as we cruise across the Atlantic and back I just want to say that I hope everyone continues their vigorous debate, which is the strength of this forum, but those who feel their case is strengthened with rather colourful and hyperbolic descriptions, it really is not
I look forward to contributing as and when I can and wish all sides and none an interesting continuing political debate
Have a great time BG! We've just got back from Nova Scotia and it's very beautiful. Assuming you're docking in Halifax I'd recommend an excursion to Peggy's Cove.
Thanks rpjs and yes, Peggy's Cove was the first excursion booked.
Lots of Scots emigrated to Nova Scotia, hence the name, including my wife's forebears and of course there is a shared interest in anything to do with the fishing communities
Have a great crossing and trip. Halifax is great, except in the winter. I had a peek at Canada today, across the river at Niagara. The falls are impressive if not as high as I imagined, but the town on the Canadian side looks uglier even than the American one.
Oh no, it's much, much nicer! The bit right by the falls is a mini-Vegas, yes, but the town as a whole is far better than the US side.
Anecdote alert. I spoke to someone from a magazine company selling me advertising today, in person. I'm based in Scotland.
I don't doubt you, but (as a former magazine editor) I spent much of my life dealing with magazine ad sales staff, and none of them are the sharpest knives in the drawer. Most seemed to have had a part of their personality surgically removed at birth.
My favourite was the senior sales manager who couldn't even spell "ad". He would email clients saying "Thanks for booking an add". (a) It's only two letters, how can you misspell a two-letter word (b) IT'S YOUR SODDING JOB FOR CRYING OUT LOUD
He would have made an outstanding Principal Examiner for AQA.
Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan", despite all the diversions thrown to convince us that there was one. Hence:
1. Nothing will happen until late in the day of 19th October.
2. At that point, Johnson will meet with her Maj, say that as the Government cannot command a effect.
3. Johnson will make it known that he made no recommendation to the Queen as to whom should succeed him.
4. The Queen nonetheless will send for Corbyn (as she surely must, unlike Bercow she I think respects constitutional precedent).
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
6. The next parliamentary day (Monday 21st), Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, which will fall, Corbyn having served his very short lived purpose by serving the notice over the weekend.
7. No other government will be formed within the 14 day period which can command a majority and we will face a GE in late October or early November.
I am not going to predict which party or coalition of parties will win that election, but I think this simple course will give Johnson and the Conservatives their best chance.
The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.
Yep, the Remain Alliance is now very tight - Boris would be mad to let in Corbyn on the assumption he would lose a VONC. As with prats voting in Labour's leadership contest for Corbyn to ensure 'an open debate', so letting in Corbyn to No.10 would be a massive error.
I'm of the opinion now that we just let the remainers revoke and wait for PM Farage in 2022.
Unless, of course, anyone really thinks that an establisment stitch up to cancel Brexit in 2019 will settle the matter once and for all?
I think the chances of revoke without a second referendum are very slim.
With a second vote it would be perfectly legitimate, without it would be a gift to the faragists. Real shame these pesky remainers won't fall into the bear traps the cunning leavers keep setting for them
Revoke first, then a referendum on a firm Brexit plan. A leave vote triggers A50 automatically and we do it properly at second attempt
Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan", despite all the diversions thrown to convince us that there was one. Hence:
1. Nothing will happen until late in the day of 19th October.
2. At that point, Johnson will meet with her Maj, say that as the Government cannot command a effect.
3. Johnson will make it known that he made no recommendation to the Queen as to whom should succeed him.
4. The Queen nonetheless will send for Corbyn (as she surely must, unlike Bercow she I think respects constitutional precedent).
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
6. The next parliamentary day (Monday 21st), Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, which will fall, Corbyn having served his very short lived purpose by serving the notice over the weekend.
7. No other government will be formed within the 14 day period which can command a majority and we will face a GE in late October or early November.
I am not going to predict which party or coalition of parties will win that election, but I think this simple course will give Johnson and the Conservatives their best chance.
The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.
Yep, the Remain Alliance is now very tight - Boris would be mad to let in Corbyn on the assumption he would lose a VONC. As with prats voting in Labour's leadership contest for Corbyn to ensure 'an open debate', so letting in Corbyn to No.10 would be a massive error.
I'm of the opinion now that we just let the remainers revoke and wait for PM Farage in 2022.
Unless, of course, anyone really thinks that an establisment stitch up to cancel Brexit in 2019 will settle the matter once and for all?
I think the chances of revoke without a second referendum are very slim.
With a second vote it would be perfectly legitimate, without it would be a gift to the faragists. Real shame these pesky remainers won't fall into the bear traps the cunning leavers keep setting for them
Revoke first, then a referendum on a firm Brexit plan. A leave vote triggers A50 automatically and we do it properly at second attempt
Anecdote alert. I spoke to someone from a magazine company selling me advertising today, in person. I'm based in Scotland.
ME: 'We're having a brilliant year so far, great to be reporting we're ahead of target each month. Who knows what will happen in the next few months though (with a bit of a mild "eek" expression and eyebrow raise).'
This is cue for people to get what they think of Brexit off their chest.
HER: "I honestly think it might have been better for Boris to get his way."
This is not a full transcript. And is a sample of one. But it surprised me.
It is remarkable how every anecdote PBers report always seems to align with their own view.
On the contrary, I was with a taxi driver the other day and he was slagging off the EU and particularly remainers. He was incredibly knowledgeable on the subject and I found myself overwhelmed by his arguments.
Sorry just felt like ringing the changes a bit
When I am in a taxi and the taxi driver starts going on about the EU, I usually say something like "didn't we leave last year" or "are you sure? I'm sure there was a vote or something". Some of them get genuinely sad or offended and try to explain it to me. That way I find out what they think and they don't find out what I think. Which suits me just fine...
Taxi drivers are permanently offended. That's why they're always running down cyclists.
When I was in Berlin a couple of years ago a very amiable drunk started quizzing me on history. He asked me what year Britain had left the EU. When I told him we hadn't left he got so confused he fell off at the next station.
I still think a Tory campaign that depends on working class Labour voters breaking the tradition of a lifetime and voting Tory is doomed to failure.
Its madness. It breaks all the basic rules of politics. The Tories might pick off a handful of Labour seats but talk of 50 to 100 is not going to happen. I didn't think it would work in 2017 and it certainly will not work now. Mass delusions in CCHQ and No.10!
Anecdote alert. I spoke to someone from a magazine company selling me advertising today, in person. I'm based in Scotland.
ME: 'We're having a brilliant year so far, great to be reporting we're ahead of target each month. Who knows what will happen in the next few months though (with a bit of a mild "eek" expression and eyebrow raise).'
This is cue for people to get what they think of Brexit off their chest.
HER: "I honestly think it might have been better for Boris to get his way."
This is not a full transcript. And is a sample of one. But it surprised me.
It is remarkable how every anecdote PBers report always seems to align with their own view.
On the contrary, I was with a taxi driver the other day and he was slagging off the EU and particularly remainers. He was incredibly knowledgeable on the subject and I found myself overwhelmed by his arguments.
Sorry just felt like ringing the changes a bit
When I am in a taxi and the taxi driver starts going on about the EU, I usually say something like "didn't we leave last year" or "are you sure? I'm sure there was a vote or something". Some of them get genuinely sad or offended and try to explain it to me. That way I find out what they think and they don't find out what I think. Which suits me just fine...
Taxi drivers are permanently offended. That's why they're always running down cyclists.
When I was in Berlin a couple of years ago a very amiable drunk started quizzing me on history. He asked me what year Britain had left the EU. When I told him we hadn't left he got so confused he fell off at the next station.
The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.
Yep, the Remain Alliance is now very tight - Boris would be mad to let in Corbyn on the assumption he would lose a VONC. As with prats voting in Labour's leadership contest for Corbyn to ensure 'an open debate', so letting in Corbyn to No.10 would be a massive error.
I'm of the opinion now that we just let the remainers revoke and wait for PM Farage in 2022.
Unless, of course, anyone really thinks that an establisment stitch up to cancel Brexit in 2019 will settle the matter once and for all?
I think the chances of revoke without a second referendum are very slim.
With a second vote it would be perfectly legitimate, without it would be a gift to the faragists. Real shame these pesky remainers won't fall into the bear traps the cunning leavers keep setting for them
I think leavers would only see it as "legitimate" if it was a stonking victory for remain, I'd suggest minimum 60/40 and maybe more. Otherwise the cry will merely be "you didn't respect the result of the first one" and there's a fair chance 30-35% of the population will vote BXP in 2022 and take us out that way.
As @noneoftheabove notes, the quickest way to resolve the argument is probably to test brexit to destruction, i.e. chaotic no-deal brexit + economic implosion followed swiftly by rejoin, with Schengen and the Euro, suitably chastened.
Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan", despite all the diversions thrown to convince us that there was one. Hence:
1. Nothing will happen until late in the day of 19th October.
2. At that point, Johnson will meet with her Maj, say that as the Government cannot command a effect.
3. Johnson will make it known that he made no recommendation to the Queen as to whom should succeed him.
4. The Queen nonetheless will send for Corbyn (as she surely must, unlike Bercow she I think respects constitutional precedent).
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
6. The next parliamentary day (Monday 21st), Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, which will fall, Corbyn having served his very short lived purpose by serving the notice over the weekend
The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.
Yep, the Remain Alliance is now very tight - Boris would be mad to let in Corbyn on the assumption he would lose a VONC. As with prats voting in Labour's leadership contest for Corbyn to ensure 'an open debate', so letting in Corbyn to No.10 would be a massive error.
I'm of the opinion now that we just let the remainers revoke and wait for PM Farage in 2022.
Unless, of course, anyone really thinks that an establisment stitch up to cancel Brexit in 2019 will settle the matter once and for all?
I think the chances of revoke without a second referendum are very slim.
With a second vote it would be perfectly legitimate, without it would be a gift to the faragists. Real shame these pesky remainers won't fall into the bear traps the cunning leavers keep setting for them
Revoke first, then a referendum on a firm Brexit plan. A leave vote triggers A50 automatically and we do it properly at second attempt
Yes we send the leavers off to come back with a clear strategy to leave which we will then put to a vote. The rest of us can get on with our lives and await their proposals.
Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan", despite all the diversions thrown to convince us that there was one. Hence:
1. Nothing will happen until late in the day of 19th October.
2. At that point, Johnson will meet with her Maj, say that as the Government cannot command a effect.
3. Johnson will make it known that he made no recommendation to the Queen as to whom should succeed him.
4. The Queen nonetheless will send for Corbyn (as she surely must, unlike Bercow she I think respects constitutional precedent).
5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.
6. The next parliamentary day (Monday 21st), Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, which will fall, Corbyn having served his very short lived purpose by serving the notice over the weekend
The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.
Yep, the Remain Alliance is now very tight - Boris would be mad to let in Corbyn on the assumption he would lose a VONC. As with prats voting in Labour's leadership contest for Corbyn to ensure 'an open debate', so letting in Corbyn to No.10 would be a massive error.
I'm of the opinion now that we just let the remainers revoke and wait for PM Farage in 2022.
Unless, of course, anyone really thinks that an establisment stitch up to cancel Brexit in 2019 will settle the matter once and for all?
I think the chances of revoke without a second referendum are very slim.
With a second vote it would be perfectly legitimate, without it would be a gift to the faragists. Real shame these pesky remainers won't fall into the bear traps the cunning leavers keep setting for them
Revoke first, then a referendum on a firm Brexit plan. A leave vote triggers A50 automatically and we do it properly at second attempt
Yes we send the leavers off to come back with a clear strategy to leave which we will then put to a vote. The rest of us can get on with our lives and await their proposals.
I still think a Tory campaign that depends on working class Labour voters breaking the tradition of a lifetime and voting Tory is doomed to failure.
Though I'm sure that, just like last time, the vox-poppers will still manage to find a lot of Tory voters who claim they've been "Labour all my life", before it turns out they haven't actually voted Labour in years (if ever).
Will the election be respected ? Isn’t that a bit old fashioned?
No one has ever said an election shouldn't be "respected". It's those people who think a referendum result makes their MP a delegate and obliges them to vote as their constituency did.
Anecdote alert. I spoke to someone from a magazine company selling me advertising today, in person. I'm based in Scotland.
ME: 'We're having a brilliant year so far, great to be reporting we're ahead of target each month. Who knows what will happen in the next few months though (with a bit of a mild "eek" expression and eyebrow raise).'
This is cue for people to get what they think of Brexit off their chest.
HER: "I honestly think it might have been better for Boris to get his way."
This is not a full transcript. And is a sample of one. But it surprised me.
It is remarkable how every anecdote PBers report always seems to align with their own view.
On the contrary, I was with a taxi driver the other day and he was slagging off the EU and particularly remainers. He was incredibly knowledgeable on the subject and I found myself overwhelmed by his arguments.
Sorry just felt like ringing the changes a bit
When I am in a taxi and the taxi driver starts going on about the EU, I usually say something like "didn't we leave last year" or "are you sure? I'm sure there was a vote or something". Some of them get genuinely sad or offended and try to explain it to me. That way I find out what they think and they don't find out what I think. Which suits me just fine...
Taxi drivers are permanently offended. That's why they're always running down cyclists.
When I was in Berlin a couple of years ago a very amiable drunk started quizzing me on history. He asked me what year Britain had left the EU. When I told him we hadn't left he got so confused he fell off at the next station.
It wasn't Boris, was it?
No, it couldn't have been. He had a silly hairstyle and a smug smile, but he also spoke fluent English.
Comments
The SNP realise this. Whether the LibDems do is hard to say.
My reading of the situation (from extensive consultation with friends, family and colleagues over recent weeks) is that the 70% are well up for this and willing to compromise.
It’s the politicians who are pandering to their loud activist extremes.
However, looking at that recent poll it suggests compromise is exactly what most of the "public" would be very happy with.
Maybe Cummings will even pay us for the plan.
But it doesn't seem very fair on the other prisoners.
It is one thing to be a member of the establishment, it is another entirely to be part of an establishment stitch up.
I say let the remainers have their way - then let the rest of us have our say.
https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1170979456611233792
(Which is one of the reasons I came around to be a strong supporter of PR.)
Now. All you need is an extension, proposal for 2nd referendum, promise to Indyref 2, PR brought in, and keep to Boris' spending plans, to have a QS ready to go.
The bemused ingenue, blithering idiot, and too clever by half evil schemer.
The leadership's theory seems to be that by campaigning on everything else, they'll be better-placed for the election campaign, which never rests only on one issue. Perhaps - but I think people need to be persuaded that the Brexit plan makes sense, even if they don't especially like it.
Though more likely a temporary PM doing the extending would be neither
As I’ve said before the gap between Revokers and No Dealers is much smaller than either side would like to admit.
But the European elections, and a lot of the polling since, suggests my and your anecdotal experiences aren't typical.
ME: 'We're having a brilliant year so far, great to be reporting we're ahead of target each month. Who knows what will happen in the next few months though (with a bit of a mild "eek" expression and eyebrow raise).'
This is cue for people to get what they think of Brexit off their chest.
HER: "I honestly think it might have been better for Boris to get his way."
This is not a full transcript. And is a sample of one. But it surprised me.
There is even the added bonus of making the LDs stew as they set up, but cannot bring down, Corbyn.
Could the GE be as late as April / May time??
All I would ask is some small acknowledgment perhaps, if they are considered useful.
They don’t see that they are being taken for a ride by the Uber rich then there is little that you can do.
Wonder if that's why Trump sacked him?
Or was it - which seems more likely - the moustache?
I'm afraid that is a serious comment. This is where we are.
I really can't see Her Majesty being put in a positon whether she asks Corbyn to form a government on 19th October and then the government immediatly falls on 22nd October.
If it's not clear that he can command a majority of the House when HMQ asks him the question then he won't be able to form a government?
For that reason alone I suspect Lib-Dems and SNP will have to promise to support him for at least ONE VONC/Queens Speech.
Edit: don't forget to play your subsample klaxons too
Presumably there will be such a vote not long after the new Parliamentary session begins. I would have thought that the rebel Tories would mostly vote for it, unless it included something to provoke them, like an "exiting the EU without a deal" Bill. Even if they did vote for it the DUP may not if the NI backstop is then the plan. It's not a formality is it?
What happens if that vote is lost? It's not a confidence vote as per the form set down in the FTPA, but HMG would certainly not have the confidence of the House.
Boris = Fletcher
Cummings = Godber
Corbyn = Grouty
Maybe there would even be room for Dominic Raab as Cyril Heslop ("I read a book once - green it was")
My point was that if remainers get their way now and keep us in the EU, there will be a price to pay when the voters finally get a say.
Remaining now doesn't end this. It just allows the wound to fester and one side has to be completely and thoroughly defeated before we can all move on. But remain/revoke now doesn't defeat brexit, it merely moves it down the line to the next GE.
The two best solutions from here I think are either the softest of soft EEA/EFTA brexits - which most voters would be glad for, just to see the back of this whole sorry episode - but the headbangers on either side will never allow, or a short sharp shock caused by a chaotic no-deal brexit that forces us to rejoin.
Boris still wouldn’t get 10 x DUP and 25 x Spartans voting for that. So he’d get about 280 votes.
Where are the other 45 coming from?
Sorry just felt like ringing the changes a bit
He might be PM for 9 months.
Must have been an especially stupid primary school class.
With a second vote it would be perfectly legitimate, without it would be a gift to the faragists. Real shame these pesky remainers won't fall into the bear traps the cunning leavers keep setting for them
In fact I'd go so far as to say it's truly amazing.
My favourite was the senior sales manager who couldn't even spell "ad". He would email clients saying "Thanks for booking an add". (a) It's only two letters, how can you misspell a two-letter word (b) IT'S YOUR SODDING JOB FOR CRYING OUT LOUD
As @noneoftheabove notes, the quickest way to resolve the argument is probably to test brexit to destruction, i.e. chaotic no-deal brexit + economic implosion followed swiftly by rejoin, with Schengen and the Euro, suitably chastened.
Here's a clue - it doesn't.