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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Your regular reminder that the wording and format of polling questions can influence the outcome
This is a textbook example of acquiescence bias: we like to sound agreeable and say "yes" to things. A simple way to avoid it in surveys is to present respondents with the two statements and ask them which one is closer to your position. pic.twitter.com/fRo487uw6l
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If Leavers are so confident they are still in the majority, why are they so frit by a second referendum?
Are they worried they may actually lose?
Even if, by some miracle, he did get a deal, and he won the "meaningful vote" in the Commons on the first day back on 14th Oct - there'd still be a TON of legislation that would need to be passed (not least by the Lords). Would it be possible by the 31st?
"The more time Sunil spends in Scotland traversing the ScotRail network, the more Remainery he becomes."
This is going to be another bonanza for the legal profession.
.
Agree 95%
Disagree 5%
If @TSE authors the thread he should first eat a pineapple pizza before being banned from commenting for a month :
Agree 95%
Disagree 5%
Hurrah for Boris.
Still got to do Kyle of Lochalsh, Thurso/Georgemas/Wick, and Inverness to Aberdeen.
It's a recipe for confusion for both sides, and would lead to incredible bitterness from whichever side lost.
Yes, you're right that questions influence answers. But reversing the meaning of answers, or reusing words from different contexts like "Remain" and "Leave" would be a catastrophe.
Either reuse the Yes/No from 2014, or find a totally new formulation.
I wonder if that effect is naturally helpful to remain as the support is clustered in big cities rather than more dispersed.
We cannot allow this. We have a remarkably precious and ancient democracy, and Black Rod's pinchbeck shoes have made me see this.
I might be just be a transitioning ex male model, but I officially regret my Remain vote. We need to Leave.
End.
That it was the Electoral Commission itself that allowed the blatant cheating question in indyref1 just goes to show that independent bodies, such as the BBC, can be responsible for some real gross incompetence/bias.
Re the SINDY2 question, I would suggest something along the lines of -
"Wanna be ruled forever more by entitled tory poshboys?"
This would counter (at least to some extent) the inbuilt advantage for the YES campaign.
"Remain with me baby"
"C'mon c'mon let's remain together"
"Should I remain or should I go now?"
No. No. No.
Its manifesto will promise to reach a better Brexit deal, but is not expected to commit to either Leave or Remain.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-49646544
Arrh, the mythical better deal, which they will then recommend we vote against.
Independence is a very loaded, aspirational and subjective term. The UK is on the verge of becoming an independent nation, yet the Scots nationalists want to subsume Scotland back within the constraints of the corporate EU state. So if we are going to retain reference to independence, something along the following lines would be needed post Brexit:
"Should Scots continue to live in an independent country?"
Yes, biased I know, but no more so than the first referendum.
V O T E
L I B E R A L
https://twitter.com/matthewwells/status/1171413981967335425?s=21
Should Scotland become an independent country and leave the United Kingdom’ Yes or No.
Prefer this though
Should Scotland become a vassal of the European Union (if they'll have us), hand over our fish and daughters to the perfidious Eurocrats, and have to resort to smuggling IrnBru over Carter Bar in order to have something to drink when visiting our interned relatives south of the border? Yah or Nein
https://twitter.com/noa_landau/status/1171439703586787328?s=21
https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/1171439455325937664?s=21
His 4s looked like 7s and his 2s looked like 5s.
I have decided to prorogued myself from this wonderful forum (unless something earth shattering happens) but before I go I would just like to make one or two comments.
I utterly reject Boris nee Cummings prorogation of the HOC which acted as a catalyst for the opposition and I have no idea why anyone thinks Cummings is any good and certainly he has been a disaster so far.
I also condemn Boris nee Cummings sacking of 21 good conservative mps prompting my resignation from the party and demonstrating just how clueless they both are
I also condemn Corbyn and others for running scared of a GE
I accept there are strong feelings from leavers and remainers and there must be a considerable number like me seeking a compromise. I have always wanted that to happen hence why I backed TM deal. Listening again to Stephen Kinnock this lunchtime he seems confident that, with moderate conservative and many of his labour colleagues the 'Kinnock' amendment may well go through in Mid October
Now I have no idea if this is the case and plenty will say that is 'for the birds', but as we cruise across the Atlantic and back I just want to say that I hope everyone continues their vigorous debate, which is the strength of this forum, but those who feel their case is strengthened with rather colourful and hyperbolic descriptions, it really is not
I look forward to contributing as and when I can and wish all sides and none an interesting continuing political debate
There was absolutely nothing stopping the Electoral Commission using this question the first time round.
It's time for hardball now.
It's TSE's question or they don't get they're factor 30 (or whatever it is)
For this reason I’m much more positive about a deal than for many months . The right wing anti EU press need him to succeed .
He was their chosen one !
And I think there would be massive pressure on MPs to support that .
In the words of TM slightly amended
'Nothing will change'
Do we get to track your progress, like we did with Greta?
No thanks
to
UK OK
Happy to help
At some point a book will appear in my local Tesco written by a moderately successful thriller author about a travel journalist trying to interview a frustrated transitioning ex male model who only communicates by email and always cancels the interview at the last minute.
It will then be made into a film by a screenwriter who has wangled a director's gig. He will inserts a telephone conversation between the two, and the denouement will feature the increasingly-horrified gratuitous love interest realising how that conversation took place.
...and every bloody PBer in the audience will start screaming at that point
https://twitter.com/eylonalevy/status/1171444192800731138?s=21
Google Sapphire Princess bridge cam and it should give you the navigation as well
Or www.cleancruising.com.au and key in Southampton, North America East Coast, September 19, and Princess cruises
If it were just our wallets talking we'd be the hardest of Brexiteers. 🤑
"Police hunt for cyclist who ran red light and clipped City worker as he crossed the road - then got off his bike to head-butt him in front of horrified onlookers"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7447037/Hunt-head-butting-cyclist-ran-red-light-clipped-pedestrian.html
Who was it said of a wind instrument that it was an ill wind that nobody blows good?
The Government have their ways of buying people off.
Remaining on our existing terms does nothing to address the fundamentals that provoked and caused the Eurosceptics to have the power to bring about a referendum and the motivation to win a referendum.
Remaining on the current terms is storing up trouble for the future. As a peripheral (in the sense of not in Euro and Schengen) member there will be multiple reasons for us to feel ignored and rejected as the Euro core will (quiet rightly) use QMV to further the interests of the Euro core of the EU.
It really is a road to discontent, disruption and continued bickering and hostility between the already aggravated EU factions.
No deal has had a myriad of disaster related predictions hung round its neck, almost to the extent that it won't be as bad as predicted and the sky won't fall in, but it isn't a sensible option.
If we remain in the EU we have to do it in a way that our relationships in the EU are better than they were before and there isn't so much negativity about all the little stupidities that the EU loves to dabble in. To enjoy the benefits of the EU you need to be in the EU, not half in and half out. Join the Euro, Schengen and be full in to change our perception of the EU. It is also the only way to prevent a future easy exit (as the currency issue would make it almost impossible to leave.
That leaves EFTA / EAA / Deal as the only other options, all of which I would consider to better than the idiocy of revoke and return to the mish mash of part in and part out.
Although you're TT aren't you?
With the NI only backstop, does that mean that if the backstop is ever invoked we'd have border controls between NI and GB?
I have no issues with that and would welcome it but it's surely not going to buy off Farage & co is it?