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  • IanB2 said:

    rpjs said:

    As some of you know my wife and I leave on a round trip cruise from Southampton to Nova Scotia, New England and New York on Saturday and return on Tuesday 8th October. This is my dear wife's 80th birthday present fulfilling a dream we have both shared since the the early 1960's. When I booked it as a surprise present 18 months ago little did we think we would be leaving our shores only to return approx 4 weeks later to a UK that has totally lost it's way.

    I have decided to prorogued myself from this wonderful forum (unless something earth shattering happens) but before I go I would just like to make one or two comments.

    I utterly reject Boris nee Cummings prorogation of the HOC which acted as a catalyst for the opposition and I have no idea why anyone thinks Cummings is any good and certainly he has been a disaster so far.

    I also condemn Boris nee Cummings sacking of 21 good conservative mps prompting my resignation from the party and demonstrating just how clueless they both are

    I also condemn Corbyn and others for running scared of a GE

    I accept there are strong feelings from leavers and remainers and there must be a considerable number like me seeking a compromise. I have always wanted that to happen hence why I backed TM deal. Listening again to Stephen Kinnock this lunchtime he seems confident that, with moderate conservative and many of his labour colleagues the 'Kinnock' amendment may well go through in Mid October

    Now I have no idea if this is the case and plenty will say that is 'for the birds', but as we cruise across the Atlantic and back I just want to say that I hope everyone continues their vigorous debate, which is the strength of this forum, but those who feel their case is strengthened with rather colourful and hyperbolic descriptions, it really is not

    I look forward to contributing as and when I can and wish all sides and none an interesting continuing political debate

    Have a great time BG! We've just got back from Nova Scotia and it's very beautiful. Assuming you're docking in Halifax I'd recommend an excursion to Peggy's Cove.
    Thanks rpjs and yes, Peggy's Cove was the first excursion booked.

    Lots of Scots emigrated to Nova Scotia, hence the name, including my wife's forebears and of course there is a shared interest in anything to do with the fishing communities
    Have a great crossing and trip. Halifax is great, except in the winter. I had a peek at Canada today, across the river at Niagara. The falls are impressive if not as high as I imagined, but the town on the Canadian side looks uglier even than the American one.
    It is a bloody awful town. The magnificence of nature, the tackiness of humankind.
  • What update do the Cabinet need on Brexit beyond “we’re pretending to get a deal”?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    IanB2 said:

    nichomar said:

    IanB2 said:

    OllyT said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Norm said:

    Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan", despite all the diversions thrown to convince us that there was one. Hence:

    1. Nothing will happen until late in the day of 19th October.

    2. At that point, Johnson will meet with her Maj, say that as the Government cannot command a effect.

    3. Johnson will make it known that he made no recommendation to the Queen as to whom should succeed him.

    4. The Queen nonetheless will send for Corbyn (as she surely must, unlike Bercow she I think respects constitutional precedent).

    5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.

    6. The next parliamentary day (Monday 21st), Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, which will fall, Corbyn having served his very short lived purpose by serving the notice over the weekend

    The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.



    I'm of the opinion now that we just let the remainers revoke and wait for PM Farage in 2022.

    Unless, of course, anyone really thinks that an establisment stitch up to cancel Brexit in 2019 will settle the matter once and for all?
    I think the chances of revoke without a second referendum are very slim.

    With a second vote it would be perfectly legitimate, without it would be a gift to the faragists. Real shame these pesky remainers won't fall into the bear traps the cunning leavers keep setting for them
    Revoke first, then a referendum on a firm Brexit plan. A leave vote triggers A50 automatically and we do it properly at second attempt
    Yes we send the leavers off to come back with a clear strategy to leave which we will then put to a vote. The rest of us can get on with our lives and await their proposals.
    As Cammo should have done in the first place
    It’s actually so bloody obvious I can’t see a single flaw in it we can even invite farage and dick brain in to help them
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878

    Apologies for my no doubt typically dense question but...

    With the NI only backstop, does that mean that if the backstop is ever invoked we'd have border controls between NI and GB?

    I have no issues with that and would welcome it but it's surely not going to buy off Farage & co is it?

    I'd be furious. An NI only backstop means there is a border within a country.
    I make jokes about people from the Wirral needing a passport to visit Liverpool. They are jokes. A NI only backstop wouldn't be a joke. You would need a passport to go to another location in your own country.

    Does ANY other country in the world have an internal goods/people/services border? Genuine question.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,155
    MaxPB said:

    I still think a Tory campaign that depends on working class Labour voters breaking the tradition of a lifetime and voting Tory is doomed to failure.

    Yougov this month has 6% of 2017 Labour voters now voting Tory but only 1% of 2017 Tory voters now voting Labour. 8% of 2017 Labour voters are now voting Brexit Party too.

    Overall the Tories are winning 57% of Leavers but Corbyn Labour are only winning 38% of Remainers

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/09/03/voting-intention-con-35-lab-25-lib-dem-16-brex-11-
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    Danny565 said:

    OllyT said:


    I think the chances of revoke without a second referendum are very slim.

    With a second vote it would be perfectly legitimate, without it would be a gift to the faragists. Real shame these pesky remainers won't fall into the bear traps the cunning leavers keep setting for them

    That's now the Lib Dems' policy, isn't it?
    Apparently. It's a bold bid for the hard Remainer niche. But although I'm a hard Remainer myself, I think it goes too far - it flatly tells the 52% that we're going to ignore them, without even a further consultation. I think we could expect signifiant civil disobedience if that happened, and it'd be hard to disagree - if democratic means are simply ignored, what is the next option?

    But the LibDems don't care about that. They simply want to get 25% of the vote.
  • As some of you know my wife and I leave on a round trip cruise from Southampton to Nova Scotia, New England and New York on Saturday and return on Tuesday 8th October. This is my dear wife's 80th birthday present fulfilling a dream we have both shared since the the early 1960's. When I booked it as a surprise present 18 months ago little did we think we would be leaving our shores only to return approx 4 weeks later to a UK that has totally lost it's way.

    I have decided to prorogued myself from this wonderful forum (unless something earth shattering happens) but before I go I would just like to make one or two comments.

    I utterly reject Boris nee Cummings prorogation of the HOC which acted as a catalyst for the opposition and I have no idea why anyone thinks Cummings is any good and certainly he has been a disaster so far.

    I also condemn Boris nee Cummings sacking of 21 good conservative mps prompting my resignation from the party and demonstrating just how clueless they both are

    I also condemn Corbyn and others for running scared of a GE

    I accept there are strong feelings from leavers and remainers and there must be a considerable number like me seeking a compromise. I have always wanted that to happen hence why I backed TM deal. Listening again to Stephen Kinnock this lunchtime he seems confident that, with moderate conservative and many of his labour colleagues the 'Kinnock' amendment may well go through in Mid October

    Now I have no idea if this is the case and plenty will say that is 'for the birds', but as we cruise across the Atlantic and back I just want to say that I hope everyone continues their vigorous debate, which is the strength of this forum, but those who feel their case is strengthened with rather colourful and hyperbolic descriptions, it really is not

    I look forward to contributing as and when I can and wish all sides and none an interesting continuing political debate

    Enjoy the trip Mr G.

    Do we get to track your progress, like we did with Greta?
    Thank you and yes

    Google Sapphire Princess bridge cam and it should give you the navigation as well

    Or www.cleancruising.com.au and key in Southampton, North America East Coast, September 19, and Princess cruises
    Hope you have a brilliant time!
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    I still think a Tory campaign that depends on working class Labour voters breaking the tradition of a lifetime and voting Tory is doomed to failure.

    Yougov this month has 6% of 2017 Labour voters now voting Tory but only 1% of 2017 Tory voters now voting Labour. 8% of 2017 Labour voters are now voting Brexit Party too.

    Overall the Tories are winning 57% of Leavers but Corbyn Labour are only winning 38% of Remainers

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/09/03/voting-intention-con-35-lab-25-lib-dem-16-brex-11-
    Channel 4 have an interesting piece on tory electoral strategy: It is not likley to work...
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112

    MaxPB said:

    I still think a Tory campaign that depends on working class Labour voters breaking the tradition of a lifetime and voting Tory is doomed to failure.

    Ken Clarke has made that very point.
    I dunno. Looking at the list of Tory twrget seats there seem to be an awful lot in working class areas in the North and Midlands.

    More Lab to BP than Tory to BP in those areas seems feasible. If the Tories are polling 33-35 percent nationally and the wheels have fallen off in Scotland, London and the SE the support must be coming from somewhere.

    Worked OK in Mansfield and Stoke in 2017 and that was with Corbyn promising to honour the referendum result.

  • Come the General Election, is there anything legally to stop a groundswell of grassroots Facebook advertising?

    Say I, as a private individual, pay £25 to Facebook to run a locally targeted campaign saying "Don't vote for your local Conservative candidate ------- ------, he wants 'no deal' and will trash the economy. [Promoted by El Capitano, 10 Main Street, Littletown]".

    Say a few thousand other people do that.

    It's not promoting a particular candidate so doesn't count towards their spending limits. It's just that I choose to spend my £25 that way rather than giving it to a particular party.

    Is that permissible?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Poll on Channel 4 News shows Tories standing still on 317 seats and Labour down to 245.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    Noo said:

    viewcode said:

    Anecdote alert. I spoke to someone from a magazine company selling me advertising today, in person. I'm based in Scotland.

    ME: 'We're having a brilliant year so far, great to be reporting we're ahead of target each month. Who knows what will happen in the next few months though (with a bit of a mild "eek" expression and eyebrow raise).'

    This is cue for people to get what they think of Brexit off their chest.

    HER: "I honestly think it might have been better for Boris to get his way."

    This is not a full transcript. And is a sample of one. But it surprised me.

    It is remarkable how every anecdote PBers report always seems to align with their own view.
    On the contrary, I was with a taxi driver the other day and he was slagging off the EU and particularly remainers. He was incredibly knowledgeable on the subject and I found myself overwhelmed by his arguments.

    Sorry just felt like ringing the changes a bit
    When I am in a taxi and the taxi driver starts going on about the EU, I usually say something like "didn't we leave last year" or "are you sure? I'm sure there was a vote or something". Some of them get genuinely sad or offended and try to explain it to me. That way I find out what they think and they don't find out what I think. Which suits me just fine... :)
    Taxi drivers are permanently offended. That's why they're always running down cyclists.
    When I was in Berlin a couple of years ago a very amiable drunk started quizzing me on history. He asked me what year Britain had left the EU. When I told him we hadn't left he got so confused he fell off at the next station.
    It wasn't Boris, was it?
    No, it couldn't have been. He had a silly hairstyle and a smug smile, but he also spoke fluent English.
    That seems conclusive.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,573

    Scott_P said:
    Oh how sad. They will all start turning on each other. Splitters!
    It would be so good if a Brexit deal could shift the dial towards a non sectarian united Ireland with the DUP and SF consigned to history. I suppose it's too much to hope for.

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    AndyJS said:

    Poll on Channel 4 News shows Tories standing still on 317 seats and Labour down to 245.

    LOL, I'd settle for that tbh.

    Not that an election is happening.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,155
    edited September 2019
    AndyJS said:

    Poll on Channel 4 News shows Tories standing still on 317 seats and Labour down to 245.

    Enough for a majority for Tories plus DUP 2 then, only this time free of deselected Tory diehard Remainers
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Danny565 said:

    OllyT said:


    I think the chances of revoke without a second referendum are very slim.

    With a second vote it would be perfectly legitimate, without it would be a gift to the faragists. Real shame these pesky remainers won't fall into the bear traps the cunning leavers keep setting for them

    That's now the Lib Dems' policy, isn't it?
    Apparently. It's a bold bid for the hard Remainer niche. But although I'm a hard Remainer myself, I think it goes too far - it flatly tells the 52% that we're going to ignore them, without even a further consultation. I think we could expect signifiant civil disobedience if that happened, and it'd be hard to disagree - if democratic means are simply ignored, what is the next option?

    But the LibDems don't care about that. They simply want to get 25% of the vote.
    I agree. It's a bit too absolutist.
  • Apologies for my no doubt typically dense question but...

    With the NI only backstop, does that mean that if the backstop is ever invoked we'd have border controls between NI and GB?

    I have no issues with that and would welcome it but it's surely not going to buy off Farage & co is it?

    I'd be furious. An NI only backstop means there is a border within a country.
    I make jokes about people from the Wirral needing a passport to visit Liverpool. They are jokes. A NI only backstop wouldn't be a joke. You would need a passport to go to another location in your own country.

    Does ANY other country in the world have an internal goods/people/services border? Genuine question.
    I wouldn't for a minute claim it is comparable but Australia does have internal bio-security borders to protect their crop growing regions from imported pests. I gavd crossed them a few timescand yhey range from annoyingly lax to annoyingly thorough and all variants imbetween.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843

    Danny565 said:

    OllyT said:


    I think the chances of revoke without a second referendum are very slim.

    With a second vote it would be perfectly legitimate, without it would be a gift to the faragists. Real shame these pesky remainers won't fall into the bear traps the cunning leavers keep setting for them

    That's now the Lib Dems' policy, isn't it?
    Apparently. It's a bold bid for the hard Remainer niche. But although I'm a hard Remainer myself, I think it goes too far - it flatly tells the 52% that we're going to ignore them, without even a further consultation. I think we could expect signifiant civil disobedience if that happened, and it'd be hard to disagree - if democratic means are simply ignored, what is the next option?

    But the LibDems don't care about that. They simply want to get 25% of the vote.
    Well I think the idea is that if they were to win a majority on that platform, then the country has endorses the revocation (of course a majority of seats isn't a majority of votes, but that's the system we have). If they were in a hung parliament they can then trade that away with Labour to get a second ref. Makes a lot of sense for them from a political standpoint as the "make it stop" party. The slightly contraversial aspect of the policy will be free publicity too.
  • I hear that the Iranian tanker did head to Syria after all.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    MaxPB said:

    I still think a Tory campaign that depends on working class Labour voters breaking the tradition of a lifetime and voting Tory is doomed to failure.

    Its madness. It breaks all the basic rules of politics. The Tories might pick off a handful of Labour seats but talk of 50 to 100 is not going to happen. I didn't think it would work in 2017 and it certainly will not work now. Mass delusions in CCHQ and No.10! :wink:
    People should remember how sentimental the working class can be.

    If Boris were banged up, I think we'd see a huge working-class sympathy vote for the Tories.

    It could be Oscar Wilde all over again.
  • stodge said:

    TGOHF said:


    Will the election be respected ? Isn’t that a bit old fashioned?

    No one has ever said an election shouldn't be "respected". It's those people who think a referendum result makes their MP a delegate and obliges them to vote as their constituency did.

    Here's a clue - it doesn't.
    Here's a clue. It should.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    Come the General Election, is there anything legally to stop a groundswell of grassroots Facebook advertising?

    Say I, as a private individual, pay £25 to Facebook to run a locally targeted campaign saying "Don't vote for your local Conservative candidate ------- ------, he wants 'no deal' and will trash the economy. [Promoted by El Capitano, 10 Main Street, Littletown]".

    Say a few thousand other people do that.

    It's not promoting a particular candidate so doesn't count towards their spending limits. It's just that I choose to spend my £25 that way rather than giving it to a particular party.

    Is that permissible?

    Not if the promoter lives in the US!
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    Danny565 said:

    OllyT said:


    I think the chances of revoke without a second referendum are very slim.

    With a second vote it would be perfectly legitimate, without it would be a gift to the faragists. Real shame these pesky remainers won't fall into the bear traps the cunning leavers keep setting for them

    That's now the Lib Dems' policy, isn't it?
    Apparently. It's a bold bid for the hard Remainer niche. But although I'm a hard Remainer myself, I think it goes too far - it flatly tells the 52% that we're going to ignore them, without even a further consultation. I think we could expect signifiant civil disobedience if that happened, and it'd be hard to disagree - if democratic means are simply ignored, what is the next option?

    But the LibDems don't care about that. They simply want to get 25% of the vote.
    If they win 40 -60 seats the price for supporting Tories or Labour could be revoke. I will probably vote LD but I will not rule out supporting my local Labour MP. Depends on the polls near polling day. If the Labour MP looks in trouble I will vote for them.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,573

    Danny565 said:

    OllyT said:


    I think the chances of revoke without a second referendum are very slim.

    With a second vote it would be perfectly legitimate, without it would be a gift to the faragists. Real shame these pesky remainers won't fall into the bear traps the cunning leavers keep setting for them

    That's now the Lib Dems' policy, isn't it?
    Apparently. It's a bold bid for the hard Remainer niche. But although I'm a hard Remainer myself, I think it goes too far - it flatly tells the 52% that we're going to ignore them, without even a further consultation. I think we could expect signifiant civil disobedience if that happened, and it'd be hard to disagree - if democratic means are simply ignored, what is the next option?

    But the LibDems don't care about that. They simply want to get 25% of the vote.
    Significant civil disobedience? Some people will want to know how many deaths the LDs are prepared to tolerate in the outbreaks of violence following the enacting of their Remain policy, just like they want to know about No Death Deaths.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,900



    But the LibDems don't care about that. They simply want to get 25% of the vote.

    I'm not aware the Party line has changed to revoke first, ask questions later. The line has been a second referendum in which the Party would campaign to remain via a revocation of A50 but only after a successful referendum.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    On Wednesday 11th September 2019 Tom Watson will make a major speech arguing that when Parliament resumes in October it must focus on securing a public vote on Brexit before a general election. He will decry the idea of a single-issue election and say it may not break the Brexit deadlock – the only thing that can certainly do that is a referendum…

    But he will say that if a general election comes before a referendum, then “Labour will decide it’s position at the Clause V manifesto meeting, but I will be arguing that our position going into that election should be totally clear – we must unambiguously and unequivocally back remain”.

    He will say we should do this “not for electoral or tactical reasons, but because it is the right thing to do for the country at this time of greatest crisis since the second world war.”

    He will say that “There is no such thing as a good Brexit deal, which is why I believe we should advocate for remain. That is what the overwhelming majority of Labour party members, MPs and trade unions believe.

    He will say that “we only create the space for our important domestic agenda on the NHS, on crime, on environment, by being crystal clear on Brexit. Labour is remain.”
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    nichomar said:

    IanB2 said:

    nichomar said:

    IanB2 said:

    OllyT said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Norm said:

    Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan", despite all the diversions thrown to convince us that there was one. Hence:

    1. Nothing will happen until late in the day of 19th October.

    2. At that point, Johnson will meet with her Maj, say that as the Government cannot command a effect.

    3. Johnson will make it known that he made no recommendation to the Queen as to whom should succeed him.

    4. The Queen nonetheless will send for Corbyn (as she surely must, unlike Bercow she I think respects constitutional precedent).

    5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.

    6. The next parliamentary day (Monday 21st), Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, which will fall, Corbyn having served his very short lived purpose by serving the notice over the weekend

    The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.


    I'm of the opinion now that we just let the remainers revoke and wait for PM Farage in 2022.

    Unless, of course, anyone really thinks that an establisment stitch up to cancel Brexit in 2019 will settle the matter once and for all?
    I think the chances of revoke without a second referendum are very slim.

    With a second vote it would be perfectly legitimate, without it would be a gift to the faragists. Real shame these pesky remainers won't fall into the bear traps the cunning leavers keep setting for them
    Revoke first, then a referendum on a firm Brexit plan. A leave vote triggers A50 automatically and we do it properly at second attempt
    Yes we send the leavers off to come back with a clear strategy to leave which we will then put to a vote. The rest of us can get on with our lives and await their proposals.
    As Cammo should have done in the first place
    It’s actually so bloody obvious I can’t see a single flaw in it we can even invite farage and dick brain in to help them
    Stop messing with the quotes!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Labour’s deputy leader has come out of hiding in what Labour sources have described as a ‘panic-reaction’ to Jeremy Corbyn’s powerful and hugely popular speech today to the TUC.

    Where Corbyn laid out his and Labour’s radical plans to transform the UK for the many, Watson has rushed out a speech trying to dredge up the tired idea of a referendum before a general election – again making the nonsensical claim that it is the ‘only thing that can certainly‘ ‘break the Brexit deadlock‘.

    Watson did not send the press release to the SKWAWKBOX, which obtained a leaked copy.

    In the note circulated it to friendly media, the details of the speech were not to be published until after 10.30pm tonight meaning it would have appeared only after the ‘trigger’ meeting Watson faces tonight had closed, giving members no opportunity to vote based on his action
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    I take back all those things I've said about Dominic Cummings.

    https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1170979456611233792

    Is there much he cares about beyond being able to swear as often as possible whilst still getting people to listen to him?
    He seems to be a radical anarchist and nihilist. Not sure how he came to be running the Conservative government.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    stodge said:

    TGOHF said:


    Will the election be respected ? Isn’t that a bit old fashioned?

    No one has ever said an election shouldn't be "respected". It's those people who think a referendum result makes their MP a delegate and obliges them to vote as their constituency did.

    Here's a clue - it doesn't.
    Here's a clue. It should.
    Here's another. They were elected by saying they would.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733

    Apologies for my no doubt typically dense question but...

    With the NI only backstop, does that mean that if the backstop is ever invoked we'd have border controls between NI and GB?

    I have no issues with that and would welcome it but it's surely not going to buy off Farage & co is it?

    I'd be furious. An NI only backstop means there is a border within a country.
    I make jokes about people from the Wirral needing a passport to visit Liverpool. They are jokes. A NI only backstop wouldn't be a joke. You would need a passport to go to another location in your own country.

    Does ANY other country in the world have an internal goods/people/services border? Genuine question.
    No passport needed as GB, NI and RoI are all within the Common Travel Area. There would be customs and agriculture checks in the North Sea.

    I think the Canaries are outside the EU for customs purposes, so presumably needed in the Atlantic for Mainland Spain.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited September 2019

    Apologies for my no doubt typically dense question but...

    With the NI only backstop, does that mean that if the backstop is ever invoked we'd have border controls between NI and GB?

    I have no issues with that and would welcome it but it's surely not going to buy off Farage & co is it?

    I'd be furious. An NI only backstop means there is a border within a country.
    I make jokes about people from the Wirral needing a passport to visit Liverpool. They are jokes. A NI only backstop wouldn't be a joke. You would need a passport to go to another location in your own country.

    Does ANY other country in the world have an internal goods/people/services border? Genuine question.
    Yes, there are many such. Perhaps the closest examples to the UK are the Canary Islands and the Azores / Madeira being separate customs territories from Spain and Portugal respectively, although in all other respects they are fully-integrated parts of those countries.

    There would be no need of a passport to travel between Great Britain and Northern Ireland in an NI-only backstop. The CTA would still apply. You don't need a passport to travel from the UK to the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands but you do have to clear customs.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    IanB2 said:

    rpjs said:

    As some of you know my wife and I leave on a round trip cruise from Southampton to Nova Scotia, New England and New York on Saturday and return on Tuesday 8th October. This is my dear wife's 80th birthday present fulfilling a dream we have both shared since the the early 1960's. When I booked it as a surprise present 18 months ago little did we think we would be leaving our shores only to return apprhave decided to prorogued myself from this wonderful forum (unless something earth shattering happens) but before I go I would just like to make one or two comments.

    I utterly reject Boris nee Cummings prorogation of the HOC which acted as a catalyst for the opposition and I have no idea why anyone thinks Cummings is any good and certainly he has been a disaster so far.

    I also condemn Boris nee Cummings sacking of 21 good conservative mps prompting my resignation from the party and demonstrating just how clueless they both are

    I also condemn Corbyn and others for running scared of a GE

    I accept there strong feelings from leavers and remainers and there must be a considerable number like me and many of his labour colleagues the 'Kinnock' amendment may well go through in Mid October

    Now I have no idea if this is the case and plenty will say that is 'for the birds', but as we cruise across the Atlantic and back I just want to say that I hope everyone continues their vigorous debate, which is the strength of this forum, but those who feel their case is strengthened with rather colourful and hyperbolic descriptions, it really is not

    I look forward to contributing as and when I can and wish all sides and none an interesting continuing political debate

    Have a great time BG! We've just got back from Nova Scotia and it's very beautiful. Assuming you're docking in Halifax I'd recommend an excursion to Peggy's Cove.
    Thanks rpjs and yes, Peggy's Cove was the first excursion booked.

    Lots of Scots emigrated to Nova Scotia, hence the name, including my wife's forebears and of course there is a shared interest in anything to do with the fishing communities
    Have a great crossing and trip. Halifax is great, except in the winter. I had a peek at Canada today, across the river at Niagara. The falls are impressive if not as high as I imagined, but the town on the Canadian side looks uglier even than the American one.
    It is a bloody awful town. The magnificence of nature, the tackiness of humankind.
    But that's pretty much the whole of North America, in terms of medium sized towns. The older very small towns are charming. The large cities with their skyscrapers are impressive, if not attractive. Everything in between is ugly American crud.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan"

    Possible up to 5.

    6 looks unlikely: the temporary coalition would hold up to 1 November at least to shepherd the extension over the line. It might well hold a bit longer. You’re more likely to see Jeremy Corbyn proactively agree to an early election then than see a successful vote of no confidence against his wishes.

    On 7, you have to allow at least 25 working days after the 14 days. So we’d be looking at a Christmas election.

    Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal".

    Possible up to 5.

    6 looks unlikely: the temporary coalition would hold up to 1 November at least to shepherd the extension over the line. It might well hold a bit longer. You’re more likely to see Jeremy Corbyn proactively agree to an early election then than see a successful vote of no confidence against his wishes.

    On 7, you have to allow at least 25 working days after the 14 days. So we’d be looking at a Christmas election.
    If an election isn’t called by 6th November (for Thurs 12th December) there won’t be one until Thurs 14th February at the earliest.
    Maybe - though we did have January elections in 1910 and 1906.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676


    In the note circulated it to friendly media, the details of the speech were not to be published until after 10.30pm tonight meaning it would have appeared only after the ‘trigger’ meeting Watson faces tonight had closed, giving members no opportunity to vote based on his action.

    In this desperate-looking move, Watson has isolated himself even further – MPs told Boris Johnson that they will back a general election when their Act to prevent no-deal is fully in force, not when there has been another referendum about it.

    And the statutory requirements for preparing, tabling and passing legislation for a new referendum – and then a general election after it – would mean that a general election could not take place until mid-2020, late April at the absolute earliest even in the unthinkable scenario of no delays in Parliament.

    Getting a referendum bill through Parliament would require MPs taking over the House of Commons for three to four weeks – a process that cannot even begin until the proroguing of Parliament is over.

    If it passes, then the referendum campaign would be a minimum of 147 days – but that countdown can’t even start until the Electoral Commission decides on the wording of the referendum question and Parliament debates it and potentially tries to amend it before its final approval.

    Add to all that the minimum period of 42 days for a general election campaign and all the arguments and manoeuvres that would go on around both votes and the earliest that a general election could realistically take place is summer next year.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Danny565 said:

    OllyT said:


    I think the chances of revoke without a second referendum are very slim.

    With a second vote it would be perfectly legitimate, without it would be a gift to the faragists. Real shame these pesky remainers won't fall into the bear traps the cunning leavers keep setting for them

    That's now the Lib Dems' policy, isn't it?
    Apparently. It's a bold bid for the hard Remainer niche. But although I'm a hard Remainer myself, I think it goes too far - it flatly tells the 52% that we're going to ignore them, without even a further consultation. I think we could expect signifiant civil disobedience if that happened, and it'd be hard to disagree - if democratic means are simply ignored, what is the next option?

    But the LibDems don't care about that. They simply want to get 25% of the vote.
    It isn't much better to keep asking the public to vote until they get the right answer.

    Rejoin is the only EU membership option I find compatible with democracy.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2019
    Channel 4 News poll:

    Labour lose Warwick & Leamington, Kensington.
    Tories lose Thurrock, Middlesbrough South.

    "Thurrock looks set to be one of the tightest swing seats: Conservatives and the Brexit Party are both forecast to get 27% of the vote, with Labour getting 29%."

    https://www.channel4.com/news/general-election-may-not-end-brexit-impasse-poll-analysis-suggests
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    isam said:

    stodge said:

    TGOHF said:


    Will the election be respected ? Isn’t that a bit old fashioned?

    No one has ever said an election shouldn't be "respected". It's those people who think a referendum result makes their MP a delegate and obliges them to vote as their constituency did.

    Here's a clue - it doesn't.
    Here's a clue. It should.
    Here's another. They were elected by saying they would.
    Here’s another they were elected to say they would with a deal
  • So a convicted girlfriend-beater gets a knighthood?
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Apologies for my no doubt typically dense question but...

    With the NI only backstop, does that mean that if the backstop is ever invoked we'd have border controls between NI and GB?

    I have no issues with that and would welcome it but it's surely not going to buy off Farage & co is it?

    I'd be furious. An NI only backstop means there is a border within a country.
    I make jokes about people from the Wirral needing a passport to visit Liverpool. They are jokes. A NI only backstop wouldn't be a joke. You would need a passport to go to another location in your own country.

    Does ANY other country in the world have an internal goods/people/services border? Genuine question.
    There are already checks on certain foods between GB and NI at the moment. This is because the EU regards the Island of Ireland as a single area for phytosanitary reasons.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Chris said:

    MaxPB said:

    I still think a Tory campaign that depends on working class Labour voters breaking the tradition of a lifetime and voting Tory is doomed to failure.

    Its madness. It breaks all the basic rules of politics. The Tories might pick off a handful of Labour seats but talk of 50 to 100 is not going to happen. I didn't think it would work in 2017 and it certainly will not work now. Mass delusions in CCHQ and No.10! :wink:
    People should remember how sentimental the working class can be.

    If Boris were banged up, I think we'd see a huge working-class sympathy vote for the Tories.

    It could be Oscar Wilde all over again.
    If Corbyn has a radicle Labour manifesto that focuses on the traditional Labour vote I cannot see those voters who tribally vote Labour suddenly thinking they should vote for a bunch of silver spoons who think the rich should have more money at their expense. It is a bonkers idea and the people advocating it have probably never canvassed for the Tories or delievered leaflets in a safe Labour seat...
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    edited September 2019
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rpjs said:

    As some of you know my wife and I leave on a round trip cruise from Southampton to Nova Scotia, New England and New York on Saturday and return on Tuesday 8th October. This is my dear wife's 80th birthday present fulfilling a dream we have both shared since the the early 1960's. When I booked it as a surprise present 18 months ago little did we think we would be leaving our shores only to return apprhave decided to prorogued myself from this wonderful forum (unless something earth shattering happens) but before I go I would just like to make one or two comments.

    I utterly reject Boris nee Cummings prorogation of the HOC which acted as a catalyst for the opposition and I have no idea why anyone thinks Cummings is any good and certainly he has been a disaster so far.

    I also condemn Boris nee Cummings sacking of 21 good conservative mps prompting my resignation from the party and demonstrating just how clueless they both are

    I also condemn Corbyn and others for running scared of a GE

    I look forward to contributing as and when I can and wish all sides and none an interesting continuing political debate

    Have a great time BG! We've just got back from Nova Scotia and it's very beautiful. Assuming you're docking in Halifax I'd recommend an excursion to Peggy's Cove.
    Thanks rpjs and yes, Peggy's Cove was the first excursion booked.

    Lots of Scots emigrated to Nova Scotia, hence the name, including my wife's forebears and of course there is a shared interest in anything to do with the fishing communities
    Have a great crossing and trip. Halifax is great, except in the winter. I had a peek at Canada today, across the river at Niagara. The falls are impressive if not as high as I imagined, but the town on the Canadian side looks uglier even than the American one.
    It is a bloody awful town. The magnificence of nature, the tackiness of humankind.
    But that's pretty much the whole of North America, in terms of medium sized towns. The older very small towns are charming. The large cities with their skyscrapers are impressive, if not attractive. Everything in between is ugly American crud.
    There are plenty of crap ugly British towns, like Barnsley and Stevenage. France has us both beath in this regard.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    rpjs said:

    Apologies for my no doubt typically dense question but...

    With the NI only backstop, does that mean that if the backstop is ever invoked we'd have border controls between NI and GB?

    I have no issues with that and would welcome it but it's surely not going to buy off Farage & co is it?

    I'd be furious. An NI only backstop means there is a border within a country.
    I make jokes about people from the Wirral needing a passport to visit Liverpool. They are jokes. A NI only backstop wouldn't be a joke. You would need a passport to go to another location in your own country.

    Does ANY other country in the world have an internal goods/people/services border? Genuine question.
    Yes, there are many such. Perhaps the closest examples to the UK are the Canary Islands and the Azores / Madeira being separate customs territories from Spain and Portugal respectively, although in all other respects they are fully-integrated parts of those countries.

    There would be no need of a passport to travel between Great Britain and Northern Ireland in an NI-only backstop. The CTA would still apply. You don't need a passport to travel from the UK to the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands but you do have to clear customs.
    I think Madeira and Azores are in the EU, but not the Canaries.

    Not sure of the customs position of the French and Dutch Antilies, Surinam vs the EU, or New Caledonia, Tahiti etc. All legally parts of metropolitan France and Netherlands. Indeed what about Jersey and GB, or the Isle of Man?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    IanB2 said:

    nichomar said:

    IanB2 said:

    nichomar said:

    IanB2 said:

    OllyT said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Norm said:

    Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan", despite all the diversions thrown to convince us that there was one. Hence:

    1. Nothing will happen until late in the day of 19th October.

    2. At that point, Johnson will meet with her Maj, say that as the Government cannot command a effect.

    3. Johnson will make it known that he made no recommendation to the Queen as to whom should succeed him.

    4. The Queen nonetheless will send for Corbyn (as she surely must, unlike Bercow she I think respects constitutional precedent).

    5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.

    6. The next parliamentary day (Monday 21st), Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, which will fall, Corbyn having served his very short lived purpose by serving the notice over the weekend

    The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.


    I'm of the opinion now that we just let the remainers revoke and wait for PM Farage in 2022.

    Unless, of course, anyone really thinks that an establisment stitch up to cancel Brexit in 2019 will settle the matter once and for all?
    I think the chances of revoke without a second referendum are very slim.

    With a second vote it would be perfectly legitimate, without it would be a gift to the faragists. Real shame these pesky remainers won't fall into the bear traps the cunning leavers keep setting for them
    Revoke first, then a referendum on a firm Brexit plan. A leave vote triggers A50 automatically and we do it properly at second attempt
    Yes we send the leavers off to come back with a clear strategy to leave which we will then put to a vote. The rest of us can get on with our lives and await their proposals.
    As Cammo should have done in the first place
    It’s actually so bloody obvious I can’t see a single flaw in it we can even invite farage and dick brain in to help them
    Stop messing with the quotes!
    Sorry don’t know any better
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,900

    stodge said:


    No one has ever said an election shouldn't be "respected". It's those people who think a referendum result makes their MP a delegate and obliges them to vote as their constituency did.

    Here's a clue - it doesn't.

    Here's a clue. It should.
    Why? Majorities aren't always right. MPs aren't delegates - they have other factors to consider such as the impact of the vote on the local and national economy.

    To paraphrase someone or other, a bad decision may be worse than no decision.
  • HYUFD said:

    diehard Remainers

    "I am an exceptional Remainer, Mr. HYUFD, and since I'm moving up to Rejoining, you should be more polite!"
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Correction: Labour are forecast to be on 237, not 245.

    Con 317
    Lab 237
    SNP 52
    LD 22
    PC 3
    Green 1
    BRX 0

    https://www.channel4.com/news/general-election-may-not-end-brexit-impasse-poll-analysis-suggests
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    edited September 2019
    AndyJS said:

    Channel 4 News poll:

    Labour lose Warwick & Leamington, Kensington.
    Tories lose Thurrock, Middlesbrough South.

    "Thurrock looks set to be one of the tightest swing seats: Conservatives and the Brexit Party are both forecast to get 27% of the vote, with Labour getting 29%."

    https://www.channel4.com/news/general-election-may-not-end-brexit-impasse-poll-analysis-suggests

    Tories BXP 317

    Lab Rainbow alliance 316

    Surely some mishtaake HY says Tory landslide
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    I'm trying to work out whether that's materially different from the 'coconut' thing Labour activists used to have.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rpjs said:

    As some of you know my wife and I leave on a round trip cruise from Southampton to Nova Scotia, New England and New York on Saturday and return on Tuesday 8th October. This is my dear wife's 80th birthday present fulfilling a dream we have both shared since the the early 1960's. When I booked it as a surprise present 18 months ago little did we think we would be leaving our shores only to return apprhave decided to prorogued myself from this wonderful forum (unless something earth shattering happens) but before I go I would just like to make one or two comments.

    I utterly reject Boris nee Cummings prorogation of the HOC which acted as a catalyst for the opposition and I have no idea why anyone thinks Cummings is any good and certainly he has been a disaster so far.

    I also condemn Boris nee Cummings sacking of 21 good conservative mps prompting my resignation from the party and demonstrating just how clueless they both are

    I also condemn Corbyn and others for running scared of a GE

    I accept there strong feelings from leavers and remainers and there must be a considerable number like me and many of his labour colleagues the 'Kinnock' amendment may well go through in Mid October

    Now I have no idea if this is the case and plenty will say that is 'for the birds', but as we cruise across the Atlantic and back I just want to say that I hope everyone continues their vigorous debate, which is the strength of this forum, but those who feel their case is strengthened with rather colourful and hyperbolic descriptions, it really is not

    I look forward to contributing as and when I can and wish all sides and none an interesting continuing political debate

    Have a great time BG! We've just got back from Nova Scotia and it's very beautiful. Assuming you're docking in Halifax I'd recommend an excursion to Peggy's Cove.
    Thanks rpjs and yes, Peggy's Cove was the first excursion booked.

    Have a great crossing and trip. Halifax is great, except in the winter. I had a peek at Canada today, across the river at Niagara. The falls are impressive if not as high as I imagined, but the town on the Canadian side looks uglier even than the American one.
    It is a bloody awful town. The magnificence of nature, the tackiness of humankind.
    But that's pretty much the whole of North America, in terms of medium sized towns. The older very small towns are charming. The large cities with their skyscrapers are impressive, if not attractive. Everything in between is ugly American crud.
    Churchill once opined on American cities: "There's New York, New Orleans, and San Fancisco, the rest are all Cincinnati."
  • Foxy said:

    rpjs said:

    Apologies for my no doubt typically dense question but...

    With the NI only backstop, does that mean that if the backstop is ever invoked we'd have border controls between NI and GB?

    I have no issues with that and would welcome it but it's surely not going to buy off Farage & co is it?

    I'd be furious. An NI only backstop means there is a border within a country.
    I make jokes about people from the Wirral needing a passport to visit Liverpool. They are jokes. A NI only backstop wouldn't be a joke. You would need a passport to go to another location in your own country.

    Does ANY other country in the world have an internal goods/people/services border? Genuine question.
    Yes, there are many such. Perhaps the closest examples to the UK are the Canary Islands and the Azores / Madeira being separate customs territories from Spain and Portugal respectively, although in all other respects they are fully-integrated parts of those countries.

    There would be no need of a passport to travel between Great Britain and Northern Ireland in an NI-only backstop. The CTA would still apply. You don't need a passport to travel from the UK to the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands but you do have to clear customs.
    I think Madeira and Azores are in the EU, but not the Canaries.

    Not sure of the customs position of the French and Dutch Antilies, Surinam vs the EU, or New Caledonia, Tahiti etc. All legally parts of metropolitan France and Netherlands. Indeed what about Jersey and GB, or the Isle of Man?
    Gibraltar of course voted in the Referendum, but Man , Jersey and Guernsey did not.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Channel 4 News poll:

    Labour lose Warwick & Leamington, Kensington.
    Tories lose Thurrock, Middlesbrough South.

    "Thurrock looks set to be one of the tightest swing seats: Conservatives and the Brexit Party are both forecast to get 27% of the vote, with Labour getting 29%."

    https://www.channel4.com/news/general-election-may-not-end-brexit-impasse-poll-analysis-suggests

    Tories BXP 317

    Lab Rainbow alliance 316
    I assume the DUP are still on 10 seats.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Come the General Election, is there anything legally to stop a groundswell of grassroots Facebook advertising?

    Say I, as a private individual, pay £25 to Facebook to run a locally targeted campaign saying "Don't vote for your local Conservative candidate ------- ------, he wants 'no deal' and will trash the economy. [Promoted by El Capitano, 10 Main Street, Littletown]".

    Say a few thousand other people do that.

    It's not promoting a particular candidate so doesn't count towards their spending limits. It's just that I choose to spend my £25 that way rather than giving it to a particular party.

    Is that permissible?

    No. Only a candidate or their election agent may authorize expenditure in support of a candidate, and the total expenditure made must stay within the expenditure limit for that constituency. You may recall recent claims at the 2017 or 2015 election that "national" campaign expenditures were being so clearly targeted at local constituency contests that they broke the expenditure limits (did that every go to court in the end?)

    I was involved in the LD campaign in Winchester in 1992 and right at the start a local resident put up a wonderfully well-done but home-made poster supporting us at a very prominent spot. Sadly our agent had to pop round to explain that it wasn't allowed, but was able to get an official poster in its place and the offending one took pride of place in our committee room during the campaign!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    AndyJS said:

    Channel 4 News poll:

    Labour lose Warwick & Leamington, Kensington.
    Tories lose Thurrock, Middlesbrough South.

    "Thurrock looks set to be one of the tightest swing seats: Conservatives and the Brexit Party are both forecast to get 27% of the vote, with Labour getting 29%."

    https://www.channel4.com/news/general-election-may-not-end-brexit-impasse-poll-analysis-suggests

    Tories BXP 317

    Lab Rainbow alliance 316
    That's a Parliament as well hung as a prize stallion. Who would form the government?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    stodge said:



    But the LibDems don't care about that. They simply want to get 25% of the vote.

    I'm not aware the Party line has changed to revoke first, ask questions later. The line has been a second referendum in which the Party would campaign to remain via a revocation of A50 but only after a successful referendum.

    The Guardian says the LibDem conference this week will change the policy to revocation without referendum:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/09/liberal-democrats-poised-to-back-revoking-article-50-brexit
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    nichomar said:

    isam said:

    stodge said:

    TGOHF said:


    Will the election be respected ? Isn’t that a bit old fashioned?

    No one has ever said an election shouldn't be "respected". It's those people who think a referendum result makes their MP a delegate and obliges them to vote as their constituency did.

    Here's a clue - it doesn't.
    Here's a clue. It should.
    Here's another. They were elected by saying they would.
    Here’s another they were elected to say they would with a deal
    Perhaps they should have voted for it then?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    So a convicted girlfriend-beater gets a knighthood?

    and naughty boy Timothy is Lorded for services to Socialism
  • IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rpjs said:

    As some of you know my wife and I leave on a round trip cruise from Southampton to Nova Scotia, New England and New York on Saturday and return on Tuesday 8th October. This is my dear wife's 80th birthday present fulfilling a dream we have both shared since the the early 1960's. When I booked it as a surprise present 18 months ago little did we think we would be leaving our shores only to return apprhave decided to prorogued myself from this wonderful forum (unless something earth shattering happens) but before I go I would just like to make one or two comments.

    I utterly reject Boris nee Cummings prorogation of the HOC which acted as a catalyst for the opposition and I have no idea why anyone thinks Cummings is any good and certainly he has been a disaster so far.

    I also condemn Boris nee Cummings sacking of 21 good conservative mps prompting my resignation from the party and demonstrating just how clueless they both are

    I also condemn Corbyn and others for running scared of a GE

    I accept there strong feelings from leavers and remainers and there must be a considerable number like me and many of his labour colleagues the 'Kinnock' amendment may well go through in
    I look forward to contributing as and when I can and wish all sides and none an interesting continuing political debate

    Have a great time BG! We've just got back from Nova Scotia and it's very beautiful. Assuming you're docking in Halifax I'd recommend an excursion to Peggy's Cove.
    Thanks rpjs and yes, Peggy's Cove was the first excursion booked.

    Lots of Scots emigrated to Nova Scotia, hence the name, including my wife's forebears and of course there is a shared interest in anything to do with the fishing communities
    Have a great crossing and trip. Halifax is great, except in the winter. I had a peek at Canada today, across the river at Niagara. The falls are impressive if not as high as I imagined, but the town on the Canadian side looks uglier even than the American one.
    It is a bloody awful town. The magnificence of nature, the tackiness of humankind.
    But that's pretty much the whole of North America, in terms of medium sized towns. The older very small towns are charming. The large cities with their skyscrapers are impressive, if not attractive. Everything in between is ugly American crud.
    I can cope with crud. It is tacky that gets me vexed.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    @Big_G_NorthWales

    Catch this film on Netflix set in Nova Scotia before you go. An unconventional Romance:

    https://youtu.be/cmUDQ7yfQ8c
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,155
    edited September 2019

    AndyJS said:

    Channel 4 News poll:

    Labour lose Warwick & Leamington, Kensington.
    Tories lose Thurrock, Middlesbrough South.

    "Thurrock looks set to be one of the tightest swing seats: Conservatives and the Brexit Party are both forecast to get 27% of the vote, with Labour getting 29%."

    https://www.channel4.com/news/general-election-may-not-end-brexit-impasse-poll-analysis-suggests

    Tories BXP 317

    Lab Rainbow alliance 316

    Surely some mishtaake HY says Tory landslide
    No, I have not (that was only Boris being imprisoned).

    Tories still in power for a historic 4th term 80 seats ahead of Corbyn Labour still OK by me though obviously we will aim for a majority
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    On Wednesday 11th September 2019 Tom Watson will make a major speech arguing that when Parliament resumes in October it must focus on securing a public vote on Brexit before a general election. He will decry the idea of a single-issue election and say it may not break the Brexit deadlock – the only thing that can certainly do that is a referendum…

    But he will say that if a general election comes before a referendum, then “Labour will decide it’s position at the Clause V manifesto meeting, but I will be arguing that our position going into that election should be totally clear – we must unambiguously and unequivocally back remain”.

    He will say we should do this “not for electoral or tactical reasons, but because it is the right thing to do for the country at this time of greatest crisis since the second world war.”

    He will say that “There is no such thing as a good Brexit deal, which is why I believe we should advocate for remain. That is what the overwhelming majority of Labour party members, MPs and trade unions believe.

    He will say that “we only create the space for our important domestic agenda on the NHS, on crime, on environment, by being crystal clear on Brexit. Labour is remain.”

    #Don'tBlameMeIVotedForStellaCreasy
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    AndyJS said:

    Poll on Channel 4 News shows Tories standing still on 317 seats and Labour down to 245.

    Utter nonsense
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Danny565 said:

    stodge said:



    But the LibDems don't care about that. They simply want to get 25% of the vote.

    I'm not aware the Party line has changed to revoke first, ask questions later. The line has been a second referendum in which the Party would campaign to remain via a revocation of A50 but only after a successful referendum.

    The Guardian says the LibDem conference this week will change the policy to revocation without referendum:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/09/liberal-democrats-poised-to-back-revoking-article-50-brexit
    It will be interesting to see if they do change to revoke as to whether the remain voters respond. I assume the LDs have polled this move.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    nichomar said:

    IanB2 said:

    nichomar said:

    IanB2 said:

    nichomar said:

    IanB2 said:

    OllyT said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Norm said:

    Here's my prediction on what will actually happen to implement the provisions of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act No 6 relating to serving the notice prohibiting "no deal". Basically, Johnson will be true to his word without there being any "cunning plan", despite all the diversions thrown to convince us that there was one. Hence:

    1. Nothing will happen until late in the day of 19th October.

    2. At that point, Johnson will meet with her Maj, say that as the Government cannot command a effect.

    3. Johnson will make it known that he made no recommendation to the Queen as to whom should succeed him.

    4. The Queen nonetheless will send for Corbyn (as she surely must, unlike Bercow she I think respects constitutional precedent).

    5. Corbyn will at the last minute serve the EU with the notice postponing Brexit beyond 31st October and on the next day (Sunday 20th) will appoint his ministerial team.

    6. The next parliamentary day (Monday 21st), Johnson will bring a vote of no confidence in Corbyn's new government, whic

    The dodgy one is 6. Remainer determination to bury Brexit will see the SNP most of the sundry independents including the likes of Grieve and the Lib Dems back Corbyn for the time being. Corbyn could survive.


    I'm of the opinion now that we just let the remainers revoke and wait for PM Farage in 2022.

    Unless, of course, anyone really thinks that an establisment stitch up to cancel Brexit in 2019 will settle the matter once and for all?
    I think the chances of revoke without a second referendum are very slim.

    With a second vote it would be perfectly legitimate, without it would be a gift to the faragists. Real shame these pesky remainers won't fall into the bear traps the cunning leavers keep setting for them
    Revoke first, then a referendum on a firm Brexit plan. A leave vote triggers A50 automatically and we do it properly at second attempt
    Yes we send the leavers off to come back with a clear strategy to leave which we will then put to a vote. The rest of us can get on with our lives and await their proposals.
    As Cammo should have
    It’s actually so bloody obvious I can’t see a single flaw in it we can even invite farage and dick brain in to help them
    Stop messing with the quotes!
    Sorry don’t know any batter
    Boycott
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Snp on 52 in that poll presumably means Lib dems hold 4, Murray clings on and Tories have mundell and berwickshire.
  • AndyJS said:

    I take back all those things I've said about Dominic Cummings.

    https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1170979456611233792

    Is there much he cares about beyond being able to swear as often as possible whilst still getting people to listen to him?
    He seems to be a radical anarchist and nihilist. Not sure how he came to be running the Conservative government.
    He was on TV! (kind of). Look at the USA or Ukraine.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Fenman said:

    AndyJS said:

    Poll on Channel 4 News shows Tories standing still on 317 seats and Labour down to 245.

    Utter nonsense
    How is it wrong do you think?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Channel 4 News poll:

    Labour lose Warwick & Leamington, Kensington.
    Tories lose Thurrock, Middlesbrough South.

    "Thurrock looks set to be one of the tightest swing seats: Conservatives and the Brexit Party are both forecast to get 27% of the vote, with Labour getting 29%."

    https://www.channel4.com/news/general-election-may-not-end-brexit-impasse-poll-analysis-suggests

    Tories BXP 317

    Lab Rainbow alliance 316

    Surely some mishtaake HY says Tory landslide
    I have not that was only Marie Le Pen.

    Tories still in power for a historic 4th term 80 seats ahead of Corbyn Labour still OK by me though obviously we will aim for a majority
    Who is messing with quotes?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Corbyn Effect according to Channel 4 News:

    Con: no change
    Lab: -25
    SNP: +17
    LD: +10
    PC: -1

    https://www.channel4.com/news/general-election-may-not-end-brexit-impasse-poll-analysis-suggests
  • To provide an easy means of escape for the Prods post-unification.
  • Would be nice if it carried any trains, but then I remembered Ireland has a different track gauge (5 ft 3 inches vs. 4 ft 8.5 inches).
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    It's something that'll be built eventually.

    The timing though ….. the DUP's price?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Lot of space for flowers for Joanna Lumley et al to plant there.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I've only spent a few days in Northern Ireland but one of the things the locals talked about was building this bridge to Scotland.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    AndyJS said:

    The Corbyn Effect according to Channel 4 News:

    Con: no change
    Lab: -25
    SNP: +17
    LD: +10
    PC: -1

    https://www.channel4.com/news/general-election-may-not-end-brexit-impasse-poll-analysis-suggests

    I think the country would swing one or another a lot more than that on the day.

    The public will find a way to end this either with Con having a mandate to deliver or Lab having a mandate to call it off.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    TGOHF said:
    It's not as if there are any other things needing money to be spent on them.

  • Would be nice if it carried any trains, but then I remembered Ireland has a different track gauge (5 ft 3 inches vs. 4 ft 8.5 inches).
    Never mind HS2 or HS3, they can build HS1690.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:
    It's not as if there are any other things needing money to be spent on them.


    Scotland and Ulster are two of the poorest parts of the Uk - would boost both.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    AndyJS said:

    Correction: Labour are forecast to be on 237, not 245.

    Con 317
    Lab 237
    SNP 52
    LD 22
    PC 3
    Green 1
    BRX 0

    https://www.channel4.com/news/general-election-may-not-end-brexit-impasse-poll-analysis-suggests

    That strikes me as not an unlikely outcome were the election held today. However, governments tend to lose ground during election campaigns.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Would be nice if it carried any trains, but then I remembered Ireland has a different track gauge (5 ft 3 inches vs. 4 ft 8.5 inches).
    Never mind HS2 or HS3, they can build HS1690.
    Your bigotry will hopefully get in the sea beneath the bridge.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    Boris does like a White Elephant, at least if he can claim credit (unlike HS2!).

    Formidable engineering challenge considering the depth and distance.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,900
    HYUFD said:


    No, I have not (that was only Boris being imprisoned).

    Tories still in power for a historic 4th term 80 seats ahead of Corbyn Labour still OK by me though obviously we will aim for a majority

    That also assumes 317 Conservatives totally loyal to Boris Johnson - I seem to recall one or two Conservatives not being such. Given the numbers it would only take three or four more independently-minded Conservatives to cause problems.

  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Foxy said:

    rpjs said:

    Apologies for my no doubt typically dense question but...

    With the NI only backstop, does that mean that if the backstop is ever invoked we'd have border controls between NI and GB?

    I have no issues with that and would welcome it but it's surely not going to buy off Farage & co is it?

    I'd be furious. An NI only backstop means there is a border within a country.
    I make jokes about people from the Wirral needing a passport to visit Liverpool. They are jokes. A NI only backstop wouldn't be a joke. You would need a passport to go to another location in your own country.

    Does ANY other country in the world have an internal goods/people/services border? Genuine question.
    Yes, there are many such. Perhaps the closest examples to the UK are the Canary Islands and the Azores / Madeira being separate customs territories from Spain and Portugal respectively, although in all other respects they are fully-integrated parts of those countries.

    There would be no need of a passport to travel between Great Britain and Northern Ireland in an NI-only backstop. The CTA would still apply. You don't need a passport to travel from the UK to the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands but you do have to clear customs.
    I think Madeira and Azores are in the EU, but not the Canaries.

    Not sure of the customs position of the French and Dutch Antilies, Surinam vs the EU, or New Caledonia, Tahiti etc. All legally parts of metropolitan France and Netherlands. Indeed what about Jersey and GB, or the Isle of Man?
    Gibraltar of course voted in the Referendum, but Man , Jersey and Guernsey did not.
    All of the Canaries, Azores and Madeira are in the EU, as are those French and Dutch outlying territories that are formally part of their parent country's metropolis, so Guadeloupe and Reunion are as they're Overseas Departments, and some of the smaller Dutch islands are as they are special municipalities of the Netherlands proper. I don't think e.g. French Polynesia or Sint Maarten are. Sint Maarten in theory still uses the old Netherlands Antilles Guilder and St Martin (the French side) Euro, but in practice everyone uses US dollars.

    Except for Gibraltar, none of the British overseas territories are in the EU, and neither are the Crown Dependencies (IoM, CI). These are all separate customs territories independent of the UK and each other, i.e. you have to clear customs between Guernsey and Jersey, although I suspect in practice that doesn't amount to much.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    TGOHF said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:
    It's not as if there are any other things needing money to be spent on them.


    Scotland and Ulster are two of the poorest parts of the Uk - would boost both.
    What a brilliant argument. I'm ashamed even to have raised the question of cost.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:
    It's not as if there are any other things needing money to be spent on them.


    Scotland and Ulster are two of the poorest parts of the Uk - would boost both.
    What a brilliant argument. I'm ashamed even to have raised the question of cost.
    Imagine we had said the same about Brunels bridges- or the Chunnel.

    Have some ambition.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Foxy said:

    Boris does like a White Elephant, at least if he can claim credit (unlike HS2!).

    Formidable engineering challenge considering the depth and distance.
    Not to mention the dumped chemical weapons at the bottom of Beaufort's Dyke.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    TGOHF said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:
    It's not as if there are any other things needing money to be spent on them.


    Scotland and Ulster are two of the poorest parts of the Uk - would boost both.
    What a brilliant argument. I'm ashamed even to have raised the question of cost.
    Imagine we had said the same about Brunels bridges- or the Chunnel.

    Have some ambition.
    Look, I said I'm ashamed to have mentioned money. Don't make me feel even worse.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,900

    Danny565 said:


    The Guardian says the LibDem conference this week will change the policy to revocation without referendum:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/09/liberal-democrats-poised-to-back-revoking-article-50-brexit

    It will be interesting to see if they do change to revoke as to whether the remain voters respond. I assume the LDs have polled this move.
    Oddly enough, it's a way out for the Overwithers without the disruption and chaos of a No Deal and it can be done quickly with a suitable majority in the Commons,

    Revoke - that's it, the last three and a bit years can be written off as a bad dream and we can all get on with our lives.

  • TGOHF said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:
    It's not as if there are any other things needing money to be spent on them.


    Scotland and Ulster are two of the poorest parts of the Uk - would boost both.
    How many people live anywhere near what would be the Scottish end of it?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Sir Geoffrey couldn’t give a toss
    How can Theresa May give a knighthood to the unrepentant ex-cricketer?
    Julie Bindel"

    https://unherd.com/2019/09/sir-geoffrey-couldnt-give-a-toss/
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    W
    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:
    It's not as if there are any other things needing money to be spent on them.


    Scotland and Ulster are two of the poorest parts of the Uk - would boost both.
    What a brilliant argument. I'm ashamed even to have raised the question of cost.
    Imagine we had said the same about Brunels bridges- or the Chunnel.

    Have some ambition.
    Look, I said I'm ashamed to have mentioned money. Don't make me feel even worse.
    No worries - we can get the EU to pay for it then leave the day it’s finished.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    TGOHF said:

    W

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:
    It's not as if there are any other things needing money to be spent on them.


    Scotland and Ulster are two of the poorest parts of the Uk - would boost both.
    What a brilliant argument. I'm ashamed even to have raised the question of cost.
    Imagine we had said the same about Brunels bridges- or the Chunnel.

    Have some ambition.
    Look, I said I'm ashamed to have mentioned money. Don't make me feel even worse.
    No worries - we can get the EU to pay for it then leave the day it’s finished.
    I think in fairness they should also pay to erect a suitable statue of Boris Johnson - at both ends,
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:
    It's not as if there are any other things needing money to be spent on them.


    Scotland and Ulster are two of the poorest parts of the Uk - would boost both.
    How many people live anywhere near what would be the Scottish end of it?
    with a motorway it would be about 75 mins to Glasgow...
  • TGOHF said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:
    It's not as if there are any other things needing money to be spent on them.


    Scotland and Ulster are two of the poorest parts of the Uk - would boost both.
    How many people live anywhere near what would be the Scottish end of it?
    This lad doesn't live too far way. Not sure he'd be completely in favour of making it easier for visitors from NI to pop over.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnny_Adair
  • TGOHF said:

    Chris said:

    TGOHF said:
    It's not as if there are any other things needing money to be spent on them.


    Scotland and Ulster are two of the poorest parts of the Uk - would boost both.
    How many people live anywhere near what would be the Scottish end of it?
    I've been to Stranraer station :)
This discussion has been closed.