Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Changing the Prime Minister might be the only way

145679

Comments

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Endillion said:

    Chris said:

    So why is Boris Johnson not even trying for an early election? Because he doesn't really want one?
    Because the only chance was getting Corbyn to agree before Labour backbenchers could explain to him what a spectacularly rubbish idea that was. Now that's off the table, there's no point in flogging the dead horse.
    Have you any idea how pathetic that sounds as an excuse for not trying a route that needs a simple majority of MPs, given that Labour has only 247 MPs out of 650?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    For those PBers getting their nether regions garments in a frenzy about royal assent here is what happens to bills passed by parliament when prorogation occurs :

    "Any bills that have completed all their parliamentary stages at the point Parliament is prorogued, but have not yet been given Royal Assent (needed for a bill to become an Act of Parliament), receive Royal Assent as part of the prorogation ceremony. During the ceremony, the Clerk of the Crown announces each bill to receive Royal Assent. As each bill is announced, the Clerk of the Parliament then declares "Le Reyne le veult" (the Queen wishes it in Norman French), signifying Assent has been given."

    Via The Institute of Government.
  • Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Actually, sorry, if Johnson agrees to the extension it will not go well. If he plonked Mays Deal, tarted up a bit, to the public as Tory policy in a GE before Nov, Brexit Party would be wiped out I reckon.

    Yes. Agree. FWIW the only way out of this for the country, and for Boris, is to bring back a TUMD (Tarted Up May Deal). Or "rolled in glitter" as is becoming the vernacular. ...
    As in "We can't do much with Boris Johnson, but we can try rolling him in glitter"?
    What a revolting prospect.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    dixiedean said:

    Government getting busy with the important issues. Killing more badgers, despite TB in cattle continuing to rise.

    Brian May wont be happy
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited September 2019
    JackW said:

    For those PBers getting their nether regions garments in a frenzy about royal assent here is what happens to bills passed by parliament when prorogation occurs :

    "Any bills that have completed all their parliamentary stages at the point Parliament is prorogued, but have not yet been given Royal Assent (needed for a bill to become an Act of Parliament), receive Royal Assent as part of the prorogation ceremony. During the ceremony, the Clerk of the Crown announces each bill to receive Royal Assent. As each bill is announced, the Clerk of the Parliament then declares "Le Reyne le veult" (the Queen wishes it in Norman French), signifying Assent has been given."

    Via The Institute of Government.

    What deep irony that it's all in Norman French.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    isam said:

    Let's not send £10 billion a year to Brussels, let's send £80 billion to the Netherlands instead.
    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1170968674267795456

    Are you comparing investments by private companies with payments from the government using taxpayers money?
    Money is money, and capital flows have consequences.

    Your emotional connection to particular packets of it is neither here nor there.
  • Mr. Eagles, will it include a list of the pro-EU MPs who voted to leave the EU and trigger Article 50, then voted against a deal repeatedly?

    I am sure we could all list the pro-Brexit MPs who had an opportunity to pass a bill to leave but then chose not to. It will surprise you to note that it includes members of the front bench.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Chris said:

    Endillion said:

    Chris said:

    Mr. Eagles, worth noting the EU permitted no discussion at all ahead of triggering Article 50.

    But Article 50 itself places the negotiation after the notification.

    Just more evidence of the breathtaking ignorance of Brexiteers about the procedures they wanted to set in motion.
    We just assumed the EU wouldn't be so pig-headedly stupid as to actually follow the letter of their ineptly written rules.

    Which is sort of weird, since the EU's habitual blind adherence to bad ideas is a key facet of why we wanted out in the first place.
    You're saying Brexiteers made that pledge based on an understanding that the rules would make it impossible, but an assumption that the rules would be broken? Is that meant to be a good thing to do?
    Neither is continued membership of organisations whose rules make it impossible to leave in an orderly fashion!

    As I recall, the assumption was that the rules would be bent rather than broken (via an "understanding" around the shape of the final deal, followed by two years to negotiate the details). Which seems eminently sensible to me, only the EU refused point blank to play ball, and then compounded the error by insisting on sequencing the talks backwards (an error they've now admitted to).

    It's sort of win-win for Leavers: the mess the EU made over Article 50 is a pretty good microcosm of why we wanted to leave it.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Actually, sorry, if Johnson agrees to the extension it will not go well. If he plonked Mays Deal, tarted up a bit, to the public as Tory policy in a GE before Nov, Brexit Party would be wiped out I reckon.

    Yes. Agree. FWIW the only way out of this for the country, and for Boris, is to bring back a TUMD (Tarted Up May Deal). Or "rolled in glitter" as is becoming the vernacular. And because, country aside, it incidentally saves Boris is why it should be front runner.

    I happen to continue to believe it will happen.

    How does it save him, though? It will split the Tories evwn further as the ERG would all march off and it would regalvinise Farage. And I doubt that many on the other side of the argument would be that impressed either. It would expose Johnson to everyone as a complete chancer in it only for himself. At the moment, there are still 35% or so of voters who do not view him that way.

    Challenge Labour not to back the deal, throw out the ERG-ers (he would have to as it's not Brexit to them), welcome or not the 21 back. And then leave on Oct 31st.

    And then call the election. Which Lab would have to support.

    At this point remainer Tories would be relieved we didn't have No Deal, and could more willingly vote Cons vs LD or Lab; Leaver Tories would be happy that we'd left. I think there would be enough BXP-ers to realise that we'd left so that would leave Nigel with a hollowed out rump. And meanwhile Jezza would be there frightening the horses to a Cons minority or even majority (I'll leave @HYUFD to work up the numbers).

    BXP + ERG probably equals 30% or so in the country -m and there's the BXP takeover of CCPs on top. If there were an eleciton after a May-like deal was voted through many Tory MPs would stand on a platform opposing it. That's the problem. That said, I think Labour would support May's deal if it came with a ratification referendum with Remain as the other option.

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    JackW said:

    For those PBers getting their nether regions garments in a frenzy about royal assent here is what happens to bills passed by parliament when prorogation occurs :

    "Any bills that have completed all their parliamentary stages at the point Parliament is prorogued, but have not yet been given Royal Assent (needed for a bill to become an Act of Parliament), receive Royal Assent as part of the prorogation ceremony. During the ceremony, the Clerk of the Crown announces each bill to receive Royal Assent. As each bill is announced, the Clerk of the Parliament then declares "Le Reyne le veult" (the Queen wishes it in Norman French), signifying Assent has been given."

    Via The Institute of Government.

    Here's a link to Robert Craig's blog post entitled "Could the Government Advise the Queen to Refuse Royal Assent to a Backbench Bill?" [NB His blog post about the separate question of Queen's Consent anticipated problems there which turned out not to exist, according to the Clerks]
    https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2019/01/22/robert-craig-could-the-government-advise-the-queen-to-refuse-royal-assent-to-a-backbench-bill/
  • Mr. Foremain, I've said for a long time that Boris Johnson isn't fit to be in Cabinet, and excoriated those MPs who foolishly supported his leadership bid.

    That does not mean other MPs get to abdicate their responsibility and bemoan no deal having voted in such a way as to make that the legal default option.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Chris said:

    Endillion said:

    Chris said:

    So why is Boris Johnson not even trying for an early election? Because he doesn't really want one?
    Because the only chance was getting Corbyn to agree before Labour backbenchers could explain to him what a spectacularly rubbish idea that was. Now that's off the table, there's no point in flogging the dead horse.
    Have you any idea how pathetic that sounds as an excuse for not trying a route that needs a simple majority of MPs, given that Labour has only 247 MPs out of 650?
    AIUI he needs a two-thirds majority to vote directly for an early election. A vote of No Confidence is the one that needs a simple majority.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    edited September 2019

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:
    Yes, MPs have refused to vote for Brexit with a Deal or with No Deal despite the Leave win
    They are just trying to honour the Leave campaign pledge that we would Leave with a deal.
    TSE in full on lie mode again.
    Sorry I have to agree with TSE, every time Project Fear said we would / could leave without a deal, Leave stated we would get a (great, awesome, world's easiest) deal .
    Its called politicking. Both sides do it. Show me this mystical pledge.
    The official Vote Leave leaflet (and it's still on their website) contained the immortal line:

    There is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878

    Should I embarrass Tyndall even more by posting videos of all the times Leavers said we would leave with a deal and No Deal was just project fear?

    No need. Us more sensible Leavers did believe the documents put together, and knew what we were voting for. A DEAL exit, in sensible stages.... like the one TM negotiated.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    Right, I need to write the afternoon thread in the next 40 mins, then around 4 pm I'll post some stuff reminding us all of the times Leavers said No Deal was Project Fear and/or them saying we'd Leave with a deal.

    For a group who get terribly exercised about the details of the manifestos various parties ran on at the last election, the more vocal leavers are remarkably insouciant about their own prospectus from the referendum.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited September 2019
    So what is going to happen over the next month, in the lead up to the EU council meeting, in the absence of parliament sitting, with all the great governmental authority of a -45 seat majority ?

    All very odd and unsustainable.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    Let's not send £10 billion a year to Brussels, let's send £80 billion to the Netherlands instead.
    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1170968674267795456

    Usually spikes in these numbers are the result of one or two large corporate finance (acquisition) activities.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    eristdoof said:

    Should I embarrass Tyndall even more by posting videos of all the times Leavers said we would leave with a deal and No Deal was just project fear?

    yes please, but not with the specific purpose of embarrasing Mr Tyndall.
    Amazing to think that just 4 years ago, Richard was being told he was ‘the kind of Kipper I could vote for’ by this person!

    Damned Brexit
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:
    Yes, MPs have refused to vote for Brexit with a Deal or with No Deal despite the Leave win
    They are just trying to honour the Leave campaign pledge that we would Leave with a deal.
    TSE in full on lie mode again.
    No you're confusing me for Vote Leave.

    Now pay particular attention to the top and bottom bullet points.


    I thought it was bad that we lost to a bus. Now I realise that we lost to a burger made out of money.
    It would of course have been sensible for us to negotiate the deal with the EU before serving the Article 50 notice but they refused to do so. Hindsight is 20:20 but I suspect they regret that almost as much as us.
    (Putting my cheeky hat on for a minute, I thought we were going to skip the Commission and negotiate directly with the Germans?)
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Endillion said:

    Chris said:

    Endillion said:

    Chris said:

    Mr. Eagles, worth noting the EU permitted no discussion at all ahead of triggering Article 50.

    But Article 50 itself places the negotiation after the notification.

    Just more evidence of the breathtaking ignorance of Brexiteers about the procedures they wanted to set in motion.
    We just assumed the EU wouldn't be so pig-headedly stupid as to actually follow the letter of their ineptly written rules.

    Which is sort of weird, since the EU's habitual blind adherence to bad ideas is a key facet of why we wanted out in the first place.
    You're saying Brexiteers made that pledge based on an understanding that the rules would make it impossible, but an assumption that the rules would be broken? Is that meant to be a good thing to do?
    Neither is continued membership of organisations whose rules make it impossible to leave in an orderly fashion!

    As I recall, the assumption was that the rules would be bent rather than broken (via an "understanding" around the shape of the final deal, followed by two years to negotiate the details). ...
    And you think it was fair to represent that process by saying:
    "we will negotiate the terms of a new deal before we start any legal process to leave"?

    I just think it's useful to know people's opinions about these things, when they're still posting here. Because it will give us an idea of their own attitudes towards truthfulness.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Actually, sorry, if Johnson agrees to the extension it will not go well. If he plonked Mays Deal, tarted up a bit, to the public as Tory policy in a GE before Nov, Brexit Party would be wiped out I reckon.

    Yes. Agree. FWIW the only way out of this for the country, and for Boris, is to bring back a TUMD (Tarted Up May Deal). Or "rolled in glitter" as is becoming the vernacular. And because, country aside, it incidentally saves Boris is why it should be front runner.

    I happen to continue to believe it will happen.

    How does it save him, though? It will split the Tories evwn further as the ERG would all march off and it would regalvinise Farage. And I doubt that many on the other side of the argument would be that impressed either. It would expose Johnson to everyone as a complete chancer in it only for himself. At the moment, there are still 35% or so of voters who do not view him that way.

    Challenge Labour not to back the deal, throw out the ERG-ers (he would have to as it's not Brexit to them), welcome or not the 21 back. And then leave on Oct 31st.

    And then call the election. Which Lab would have to support.

    At this point remainer Tories would be relieved we didn't have No Deal, and could more willingly vote Cons vs LD or Lab; Leaver Tories would be happy that we'd left. I think there would be enough BXP-ers to realise that we'd left so that would leave Nigel with a hollowed out rump. And meanwhile Jezza would be there frightening the horses to a Cons minority or even majority (I'll leave @HYUFD to work up the numbers).

    BXP + ERG probably equals 30% or so in the country -m and there's the BXP takeover of CCPs on top. If there were an eleciton after a May-like deal was voted through many Tory MPs would stand on a platform opposing it. That's the problem. That said, I think Labour would support May's deal if it came with a ratification referendum with Remain as the other option.

    Pre-leaving BXP + ERG would be 30% (high imo but we'll go with it). Post-leaving that figure plummets. Have people (not Farage, normal people) really got the energy to worry about what type of leaving a WA may entail? Not so sure. We will have left and then the fight is who will negotiate the future trade agreement. Hence the GE. And yes of course there will be some residual BXPers but many more will want to move on plus there is always Jezza as a backstop to reluctant Cons/BXP waverers.

    Would Lab accept it? Well of course that's the key but I think they would upset many of their supporters (leave and remain alike) if they continued to hold out. We've all been living with the prospect of No Deal and I believe the WA would come as a welcome relief to many.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:
    UNS would imply 12 Tory gains from Labour offset by 17 losses to LDs and circa 10 to SNP giving a total of 302. & of the 12 Labour seats at risk would enjoy first term incumbency so the Tories would struggle to exceed 300. Labour would lose 4 to LDs and 6 to SNP - though in reality only Sheffield Hallam would be likely to fall to LDs.That would give Labour 240 - 245 seats. LDs would end up on 30 - 35 seats.

  • I'm really looking forward to the Brexit show trials

    Yep, with those parliamentarians who were negotiating with the EU behind the governments back first in the dock.

    I'd be happy with a lifetime ban from politics but i'm sure others would see their treasonous actions as warranting far more serious punishment.

    The typical low information remainer on PB can be excused their ignorance but senior public figures certainly cannot.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited September 2019

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Actually, sorry, if Johnson agrees to the extension it will not go well. If he plonked Mays Deal, tarted up a bit, to the public as Tory policy in a GE before Nov, Brexit Party would be wiped out I reckon.

    Yes. Agree. FWIW the only way out of this for the country, and for Boris, is to bring back a TUMD (Tarted Up May Deal). Or "rolled in glitter" as is becoming the vernacular. And because, country aside, it incidentally saves Boris is why it should be front runner.

    I happen to continue to believe it will happen.

    How does it save him, though? It will split the Tories evwn further as the ERG would all march off and it would regalvinise Farage. And I doubt that many on the other side of the argument would be that impressed either. It would expose Johnson to everyone as a complete chancer in it only for himself. At the moment, there are still 35% or so of voters who do not view him that way.

    Challenge Labour not to back the deal, throw out the ERG-ers (he would have to as it's not Brexit to them), welcome or not the 21 back. And then leave on Oct 31st.

    And then call the election. Which Lab would have to support.

    At this point remainer Tories would be relieved we didn't have No Deal, and could more willingly vote Cons vs LD or Lab; Leaver Tories would be happy that we'd left. I think there would be enough BXP-ers to realise that we'd left so that would leave Nigel with a hollowed out rump. And meanwhile Jezza would be there frightening the horses to a Cons minority or even majority (I'll leave @HYUFD to work up the numbers).

    BXP + ERG probably equals 30% or so in the country -m and there's the BXP takeover of CCPs on top. If there were an eleciton after a May-like deal was voted through many Tory MPs would stand on a platform opposing it. That's the problem. That said, I think Labour would support May's deal if it came with a ratification referendum with Remain as the other option.

    You think Labour would campaign for the deal? Emily Thornberry would campaign for Remain against her own deal, let alone an evil Tory one
  • That said, I think Labour would support May's deal if it came with a ratification referendum with Remain as the other option.

    That's the option May wanted to allow a vote on before she was finally toppled by Leadsom.

    It's possible we would be in the campaign period for that referendum now, with a clear path to resolving this mess, in or out, if May had been allowed to press forward with that.

    Mind you the Brexit Party would probably be leading in the polls, we'd have a lot more Farage on the TV, so you can see why Tory MPs mostly didn't want to go for it.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Endillion said:

    Chris said:

    Endillion said:

    Chris said:

    So why is Boris Johnson not even trying for an early election? Because he doesn't really want one?
    Because the only chance was getting Corbyn to agree before Labour backbenchers could explain to him what a spectacularly rubbish idea that was. Now that's off the table, there's no point in flogging the dead horse.
    Have you any idea how pathetic that sounds as an excuse for not trying a route that needs a simple majority of MPs, given that Labour has only 247 MPs out of 650?
    AIUI he needs a two-thirds majority to vote directly for an early election. A vote of No Confidence is the one that needs a simple majority.
    Sorry - I thought you might have been following the discussions.

    The other possibilities, apart from a 2/3 vote, are:
    (1) A bill to hold an election on a specific date,
    (2) A vote of no confidence in the government, engineering by the government.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    That said, I think Labour would support May's deal if it came with a ratification referendum with Remain as the other option.

    That's the option May wanted to allow a vote on before she was finally toppled by Leadsom.

    It's possible we would be in the campaign period for that referendum now, with a clear path to resolving this mess, in or out, if May had been allowed to press forward with that.

    Mind you the Brexit Party would probably be leading in the polls, we'd have a lot more Farage on the TV, so you can see why Tory MPs mostly didn't want to go for it.
    Why would Farage be on TV - what option out of May's Deal v remain would he be supporting.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    How well do you get on the the ‘led by donkeys’ people?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Actually, sorry, if Johnson agrees to the extension it will not go well. If he plonked Mays Deal, tarted up a bit, to the public as Tory policy in a GE before Nov, Brexit Party would be wiped out I reckon.

    Yes. Agree. FWIW the only way out of this for the country, and for Boris, is to bring back a TUMD (Tarted Up May Deal). Or "rolled in glitter" as is becoming the vernacular. And because, country aside, it incidentally saves Boris is why it should be front runner.

    I happen to continue to believe it will happen.

    How

    Challenge Labour not to back the deal, throw out the ERG-ers (he would have to as it's not Brexit to them), welcome or not the 21 back. And then leave on Oct 31st.

    And then call the election. Which Lab would have to support.

    At this point remainer Tories would be relieved we didn't have No Deal, and could more willingly vote Cons vs LD or Lab; Leaver Tories would be happy that we'd left. I think there would be enough BXP-ers to realise that we'd left so that would leave Nigel with a hollowed out rump. And meanwhile Jezza would be there frightening the horses to a Cons minority or even majority (I'll leave @HYUFD to work up the numbers).

    BXP + ERG probably equals 30% or so in the country -m and there's the BXP takeover of CCPs on top. If there were an eleciton after a May-like deal was voted through many Tory MPs would stand on a platform opposing it. That's the problem. That said, I think Labour would support May's deal if it came with a ratification referendum with Remain as the other option.

    Pre-leaving BXP + ERG would be 30% (high imo but we'll go with it). Post-leaving that figure plummets. Have people (not Farage, normal people) really got the energy to worry about what type of leaving a WA may entail? Not so sure. We will have left and then the fight is who will negotiate the future trade agreement. Hence the GE. And yes of course there will be some residual BXPers but many more will want to move on plus there is always Jezza as a backstop to reluctant Cons/BXP waverers.

    Would Lab accept it? Well of course that's the key but I think they would upset many of their supporters (leave and remain alike) if they continued to hold out. We've all been living with the prospect of No Deal and I believe the WA would come as a welcome relief to many.
    I find it amazing that anyone would think leave inclined public would be angry at a deal that meant we had left with control over immigration.
  • Deltapoll 2nd referendum:

    Leave: 47%
    Remain: 53%

    http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/polls/brexit-government-resigations
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Chris said:

    JackW said:

    For those PBers getting their nether regions garments in a frenzy about royal assent here is what happens to bills passed by parliament when prorogation occurs :

    "Any bills that have completed all their parliamentary stages at the point Parliament is prorogued, but have not yet been given Royal Assent (needed for a bill to become an Act of Parliament), receive Royal Assent as part of the prorogation ceremony. During the ceremony, the Clerk of the Crown announces each bill to receive Royal Assent. As each bill is announced, the Clerk of the Parliament then declares "Le Reyne le veult" (the Queen wishes it in Norman French), signifying Assent has been given."

    Via The Institute of Government.

    Here's a link to Robert Craig's blog post entitled "Could the Government Advise the Queen to Refuse Royal Assent to a Backbench Bill?" [NB His blog post about the separate question of Queen's Consent anticipated problems there which turned out not to exist, according to the Clerks]
    https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2019/01/22/robert-craig-could-the-government-advise-the-queen-to-refuse-royal-assent-to-a-backbench-bill/
    This seems to be the crux:
    ‘the predominant academic view… is that the Sovereign… must act upon the advice of responsible ministers

    Although the article has a rather more technical definition of "responsible ministers" than the colloquial one, I think both the academic and the layperson would probably conclude that the current government is bereft of such.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:
    UNS would imply 12 Tory gains from Labour offset by 17 losses to LDs and circa 10 to SNP giving a total of 302. & of the 12 Labour seats at risk would enjoy first term incumbency so the Tories would struggle to exceed 300. Labour would lose 4 to LDs and 6 to SNP - though in reality only Sheffield Hallam would be likely to fall to LDs.That would give Labour 240 - 245 seats. LDs would end up on 30 - 35 seats.
    But which Tories are we talking about? Rory Stewart's "Real Conservatives" or the Johnsonite Brexit Party-lite English Nationalist Conservatives"?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,193
    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:
    Yes, MPs have refused to vote for Brexit with a Deal or with No Deal despite the Leave win
    They are just trying to honour the Leave campaign pledge that we would Leave with a deal.
    TSE in full on lie mode again.
    Sorry I have to agree with TSE, every time Project Fear said we would / could leave without a deal, Leave stated we would get a (great, awesome, world's easiest) deal .
    Its called politicking. Both sides do it. Show me this mystical pledge.
    The official Vote Leave leaflet (and it's still on their website) contained the immortal line:

    There is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it.
    Yep, and Iceland is a member of the EEA and EFTA (and no other "European free trade zone" that I am aware of. So the key Vote Leave people, if they believe in democracy at all, should definitely be going for the UK leaving the EU and heading for EEA/EFTA. That's Johnson, Gove and Cummings. But we should all already know these people don't believe in democracy at all.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Actually, sorry, if Johnson agrees to the extension it will not go well. If he plonked Mays Deal, tarted up a bit, to the public as Tory policy in a GE before Nov, Brexit Party would be wiped out I reckon.

    Yes. Agree. FWIW the only way out of this for the country, and for Boris, is to bring back a TUMD (Tarted Up May Deal). Or "rolled in glitter" as is becoming the vernacular. And because, country aside, it incidentally saves Boris is why it should be front runner.

    I happen to continue to believe it will happen.

    How

    Challenge Labour not to back the deal, throw out the ERG-ers (he would have to as it's not Brexit to them), welcome or not the 21 back. And then leave on Oct 31st.

    And then call the election. Which Lab would have to support.

    At this point remainer Tories would be relieved we didn't have No Deal, and could more willingly vote Cons vs LD or Lab; Leaver Tories would be happy that we'd left. I think there would be enough BXP-ers to realise that we'd left so that would leave Nigel with a hollowed out rump. And meanwhile Jezza would be there frightening the horses to a Cons minority or even majority (I'll leave @HYUFD to work up the numbers).

    BXP + ERG probably equals 30% or so in the country -m and there's the BXP takeover of CCPs on top. If there were an eleciton after a May-like deal was voted through many Tory MPs would stand on a platform opposing it. That's the problem. That said, I think Labour would support May's deal if it came with a ratification referendum with Remain as the other option.

    Pre-leaving BXP + ERG would be 30% (high imo but we'll go with it). Post-leaving that figure plummets. Have people (not Farage, normal people) really got the energy to worry about what type of leaving a WA may entail? Not so sure. We will have left and then the fight is who will negotiate the future trade agreement. Hence the GE. And yes of course there will be some residual BXPers but many more will want to move on plus there is always Jezza as a backstop to reluctant Cons/BXP waverers.

    Would Lab accept it? Well of course that's the key but I think they would upset many of their supporters (leave and remain alike) if they continued to hold out. We've all been living with the prospect of No Deal and I believe the WA would come as a welcome relief to many.
    I find it amazing that anyone would think leave inclined public would be angry at a deal that meant we had left with control over immigration.
    I mean Lab might decide on an open door come all ye policy in their negotiation if they win the GE but that's all in the game.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Danny565 said:

    Would Nige be keen?
    the question driving the Tories at present.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865

    JackW said:

    For those PBers getting their nether regions garments in a frenzy about royal assent here is what happens to bills passed by parliament when prorogation occurs :

    "Any bills that have completed all their parliamentary stages at the point Parliament is prorogued, but have not yet been given Royal Assent (needed for a bill to become an Act of Parliament), receive Royal Assent as part of the prorogation ceremony. During the ceremony, the Clerk of the Crown announces each bill to receive Royal Assent. As each bill is announced, the Clerk of the Parliament then declares "Le Reyne le veult" (the Queen wishes it in Norman French), signifying Assent has been given."

    Via The Institute of Government.

    What deep irony that it's all in Norman French.
    But it rather makes my point about the Court cases. How does the Supreme Court undo all of this on the 17th?
  • Deltapoll 2nd referendum:

    Leave: 47%
    Remain: 53%

    http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/polls/brexit-government-resigations

    Roughly in line with all the polls over the last year. Boris Johnson is still claiming that "the British people are demanding we leave", however.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163


    Proroguation is insane. Parliament should be sitting every bloody day until this is sorted, and Johnson's attempts to shut down dissent absolutely angers me.

    Parliament has had vote after vote after vote. Debate after debate after debate. It has not achieved anything close to an understanding of what is necessary to deliver on referendum result and the manifesto commitments given at the last election.

    More time isn't what they need.

    Personally I would kick them all out and not let any current (or former MP) stand again.

    A fresh start is what we need.

    Harsh, but difficult to argue that more time wont help. They ve had plenty
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Nigelb said:

    Chris said:

    JackW said:

    For those PBers getting their nether regions garments in a frenzy about royal assent here is what happens to bills passed by parliament when prorogation occurs :

    "Any bills that have completed all their parliamentary stages at the point Parliament is prorogued, but have not yet been given Royal Assent (needed for a bill to become an Act of Parliament), receive Royal Assent as part of the prorogation ceremony. During the ceremony, the Clerk of the Crown announces each bill to receive Royal Assent. As each bill is announced, the Clerk of the Parliament then declares "Le Reyne le veult" (the Queen wishes it in Norman French), signifying Assent has been given."

    Via The Institute of Government.

    Here's a link to Robert Craig's blog post entitled "Could the Government Advise the Queen to Refuse Royal Assent to a Backbench Bill?" [NB His blog post about the separate question of Queen's Consent anticipated problems there which turned out not to exist, according to the Clerks]
    https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2019/01/22/robert-craig-could-the-government-advise-the-queen-to-refuse-royal-assent-to-a-backbench-bill/
    This seems to be the crux:
    ‘the predominant academic view… is that the Sovereign… must act upon the advice of responsible ministers

    Although the article has a rather more technical definition of "responsible ministers" than the colloquial one, I think both the academic and the layperson would probably conclude that the current government is bereft of such.
    Being serious, I took the article to imply that opinion was divided, but the refusal of the royal assent at prorogation would be dodgier than otherwise, because the sanction of a vote of no confidence wouldn't be available then.
  • eek said:

    That said, I think Labour would support May's deal if it came with a ratification referendum with Remain as the other option.

    That's the option May wanted to allow a vote on before she was finally toppled by Leadsom.

    It's possible we would be in the campaign period for that referendum now, with a clear path to resolving this mess, in or out, if May had been allowed to press forward with that.

    Mind you the Brexit Party would probably be leading in the polls, we'd have a lot more Farage on the TV, so you can see why Tory MPs mostly didn't want to go for it.
    Why would Farage be on TV - what option out of May's Deal v remain would he be supporting.
    If he was leading the polls, on a platform of boycotting the referendum, then he would be on the TV.
  • JackW said:

    For those PBers getting their nether regions garments in a frenzy about royal assent here is what happens to bills passed by parliament when prorogation occurs :

    "Any bills that have completed all their parliamentary stages at the point Parliament is prorogued, but have not yet been given Royal Assent (needed for a bill to become an Act of Parliament), receive Royal Assent as part of the prorogation ceremony. During the ceremony, the Clerk of the Crown announces each bill to receive Royal Assent. As each bill is announced, the Clerk of the Parliament then declares "Le Reyne le veult" (the Queen wishes it in Norman French), signifying Assent has been given."

    Via The Institute of Government.

    Is this as watertight as it sounds? What if the Clerk of the Crown does not read out the name of the bill, following advice to HMQ from the government? I am not saying that it *will* happen, but can we be sure that it *can't* happen?
  • F1: for those who prefer soap opera melodrama in F1, it seems Haas and Rich Energy have actually parted ways.
  • TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Actually, sorry, if Johnson agrees to the extension it will not go well. If he plonked Mays Deal, tarted up a bit, to the public as Tory policy in a GE before Nov, Brexit Party would be wiped out I reckon.

    Yes. Agree. FWIW the only way out of this for the country, and for Boris, is to bring back a TUMD (Tarted Up May Deal). Or "rolled in glitter" as is becoming the vernacular. And because, country aside, it incidentally saves Boris is why it should be front runner.

    I happen to continue to believe it will happen.

    How

    Challenge Labour not to back the deal, throw out the ERG-ers (he would have to as it's not Brexit to them), welcome or not the 21 back. And then leave on Oct 31st.

    And then call the election. Which Lab would have to support.

    At this point remainer Tories would be relieved we didn't have No Deal, and could more willingly vote Cons vs LD or Lab; Leaver Tories would be happy that we'd left. I think there would be enough BXP-ers to realise that we'd left so that would leave Nigel with a hollowed out rump. And meanwhile Jezza would be there frightening the horses to a Cons minority or even majority (I'll leave @HYUFD to work up the numbers).

    BXP

    Pre-leaving BXP + ERG would be 30% (high imo but we'll go with it). Post-leaving that figure plummets. Have people (not Farage, normal people) really got the energy to worry about what type of leaving a WA may entail? Not so sure. We will have left and then the fight is who will negotiate the future trade agreement. Hence the GE. And yes of course there will be some residual BXPers but many more will want to move on plus there is always Jezza as a backstop to reluctant Cons/BXP waverers.

    Would Lab accept it? Well of course that's the key but I think they would upset many of their supporters (leave and remain alike) if they continued to hold out. We've all been living with the prospect of No Deal and I believe the WA would come as a welcome relief to many.
    I find it amazing that anyone would think leave inclined public would be angry at a deal that meant we had left with control over immigration.
    I mean Lab might decide on an open door come all ye policy in their negotiation if they win the GE but that's all in the game.
    Corbyn would very quickly remove all sorts of immigration controls, IMHO.

    In his view it’s the more the merrier.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    I can honestly say that I have never heard of him. A Minister of State? No doubt the fault is mine.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited September 2019
    And the direction of travel will have a real impact if we're going to go into an extended "zombie" period now, with parliament prorogued but the government vastly weakened.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    JackW said:

    For those PBers getting their nether regions garments in a frenzy about royal assent here is what happens to bills passed by parliament when prorogation occurs :

    "Any bills that have completed all their parliamentary stages at the point Parliament is prorogued, but have not yet been given Royal Assent (needed for a bill to become an Act of Parliament), receive Royal Assent as part of the prorogation ceremony. During the ceremony, the Clerk of the Crown announces each bill to receive Royal Assent. As each bill is announced, the Clerk of the Parliament then declares "Le Reyne le veult" (the Queen wishes it in Norman French), signifying Assent has been given."

    Via The Institute of Government.

    Is this as watertight as it sounds? What if the Clerk of the Crown does not read out the name of the bill, following advice to HMQ from the government? I am not saying that it *will* happen, but can we be sure that it *can't* happen?
    Yes - that may just be describing the practice as it has been over the last 300 years.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Actually, sorry, if Johnson agrees to the extension it will not go well. If he plonked Mays Deal, tarted up a bit, to the public as Tory policy in a GE before Nov, Brexit Party would be wiped out I reckon.

    Yes. Agree. FWIW the only way out of this for the country, and for Boris, is to bring back a TUMD (Tarted Up May Deal). Or "rolled in glitter" as is becoming the vernacular. And because, country aside, it incidentally saves Boris is why it should be front runner.

    I happen to continue to believe it will happen.

    How

    Challenge Labour not to back the deal, throw out the ERG-ers (he would have to as it's not Brexit to them), welcome or not the 21 back. And then leave on Oct 31st.

    And then call the election. Which Lab would have to support.

    At this point remainer Tories would be y that we'd left. I think there would be enough BXP-ers to realise that we'd left so that would leave Nigel with a hollowed out rump. And meanwhile Jezza would be there frightening the horses to a Cons minority or even majority (I'll leave @HYUFD to work up the numbers).

    BXP

    Pre-leaving BXP + ERG would be 30% (high imo but we'll go with it). Post-leaving that figure plummets. Have people (not Farage, normal people) really got the energy to worry about what type of leaving a WA may entail? Not so sure. We will have left and then the fight is who will negotiate the future trade agreement. Hence the GE. And yes of course there will be some residual BXPers but many more will want to move on plus there is always Jezza as a backstop to reluctant Cons/BXP waverers.

    Would Lab accept it? Well of course that's the key but I think they would upset many of their supporters (leave and remain alike) if they continued to hold out. We've all been living with the prospect of No Deal and I believe the WA would come as a welcome relief to many.
    I find it amazing that anyone would think leave inclined public would be angry at a deal that meant we had left with control over immigration.
    I mean Lab might decide on an open door come all ye policy in their negotiation if they win the GE but that's all in the game.
    Corbyn would very quickly remove all sorts of immigration controls, IMHO.

    In his view it’s the more the merrier.
    Yes and if that floats your boat you could vote that way in the GE. Not you, obvs, but I'm sure there are many who share that view.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Completely off topic, what do PBers think of this movie trailer for JoJo Rabbit

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tL4McUzXfFI
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Mr. Foremain, I've said for a long time that Boris Johnson isn't fit to be in Cabinet, and excoriated those MPs who foolishly supported his leadership bid.

    That does not mean other MPs get to abdicate their responsibility and bemoan no deal having voted in such a way as to make that the legal default option.

    Hear hear.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So what, the Tories would still be about 70 seats ahead of Labour even if they lost every Scottish seat to the SNP (Labour will lose 6 seats to the SNP too)

    The key thing is the majority. If we have an election at which Johnson tells everyone the opposition is intent on keeping the UK in the EU and the opposition ends up with a majority of seats, then by Leaver logic there will be a mandate to Remain.

    Possibly though on those figures the DUP could still hold the balance of power giving a majority for Brexit, while if Swinson holds the balance of power as is the only alternative on those numbers she would in her own words refuse to vote for a Corbyn Premiership
    The LD's would support whoever in return for a promise off a referendum...since that is more likely to come from Labour a NOM outcome where the LD's hold the balance of power will almost certainly lead to Corbyn being next PM....
    The LDs will vote down a Corbyn Premiership, they do not need it if they have the numbers for a referendum while it kills them in Tory Remain seats.

    Swinson will only vote for Harman etc as PM
    Usual, me me me , from the Lib Dems. Feck the country it is me me me.
  • Shadsy has cut Ken Clarke into 8/1. 12/1 is out there.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    rcs1000 said:

    Completely off topic, what do PBers think of this movie trailer for JoJo Rabbit

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tL4McUzXfFI

    Looks amazing, want to see it so bad.
  • And the direction of travel will have a real impact if we're going to go into an extended "zombie" period now, with parliament prorogued but with the government vastly weakened.
    What if Boris ends up with fewer Tory MPs following his whip than Labour? Another 40 moderate MPs gone and he’s there.

    Such a block of 60-65 one nation Tories would be bigger than the SNP and Lib Dems combined. It’d arguably make them the kingmakers between Tory and Labour and the power to choose the PM.

    That’d be a real problem for him.
  • What would have happened if; 1. Gov had VONC itself on Thursday 2. Played for time for 2 weeks/ refused to resign 3. Election kicked in. 4. Minimum 25 working days before election 5. Election happens on or after 31st Oct making no deal nailed on.

    I know we're prorogued now so not possible, but what could have stopped the government doing this?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217

    Shadsy has cut Ken Clarke into 8/1. 12/1 is out there.

    Sounds like a horrendous bet to me.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited September 2019
    These statements keep coming. Reminds me a bit of the attritional, day after day attempts to get Theresa May and Corbyn to stand down..
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited September 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    Completely off topic, what do PBers think of this movie trailer for JoJo Rabbit

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tL4McUzXfFI

    Looks good. Have we seen all the best bits in the trailer, though? Shades of Four Lions, obvs, which, if it is even 1% as good, would make it an excellent film.
  • rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:
    Yes, MPs have refused to vote for Brexit with a Deal or with No Deal despite the Leave win
    They are just trying to honour the Leave campaign pledge that we would Leave with a deal.
    TSE in full on lie mode again.
    Sorry I have to agree with TSE, every time Project Fear said we would / could leave without a deal, Leave stated we would get a (great, awesome, world's easiest) deal .
    Its called politicking. Both sides do it. Show me this mystical pledge.
    The official Vote Leave leaflet (and it's still on their website) contained the immortal line:

    There is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it.
    I suspect that most of them would have settled for that at the time. It was only after they won, and realising that the simplistic nature of the vote could be manipulated in retrospect, they pushed for more and more extreme versions of Brexit while claiming it was "the-will-o-the-people", whilst knowing full well it was nothing of the sort
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    rcs1000 said:

    Let's not send £10 billion a year to Brussels, let's send £80 billion to the Netherlands instead.
    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1170968674267795456

    Usually spikes in these numbers are the result of one or two large corporate finance (acquisition) activities.
    can you name any
  • rcs1000 said:

    Completely off topic, what do PBers think of this movie trailer for JoJo Rabbit

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tL4McUzXfFI

    How did JRM get a part in that?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Completely off topic, what do PBers think of this movie trailer for JoJo Rabbit

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tL4McUzXfFI

    Looks good. Have we seen all the best bits in the trailer, though? Shades of Four Lions, obvs, which, if it is even 1% as good, would make it an excellent film.
    Got an expectedly sniffy response in Germany.
  • Mr. B, German disapproval of a Nazi comedy is not necessarily a sign it's bad, though.

    I think Wolfenstein has to do funny things with facial hair to get released in Germany due to depictions of Hitler being legally iffy sometimes.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    What would have happened if; 1. Gov had VONC itself on Thursday 2. Played for time for 2 weeks/ refused to resign 3. Election kicked in. 4. Minimum 25 working days before election 5. Election happens on or after 31st Oct making no deal nailed on.

    I know we're prorogued now so not possible, but what could have stopped the government doing this?

    Once the Government has been VoNCed, then control passes out of their hands. If 300+ MPs posted to Twitter saying they'd accept Sylvia Harmon as PM, then the Queen would be forced to allow her a shot at a confidence vote.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Chris said:

    Endillion said:

    Chris said:

    Endillion said:

    Chris said:

    So why is Boris Johnson not even trying for an early election? Because he doesn't really want one?
    Because the only chance was getting Corbyn to agree before Labour backbenchers could explain to him what a spectacularly rubbish idea that was. Now that's off the table, there's no point in flogging the dead horse.
    Have you any idea how pathetic that sounds as an excuse for not trying a route that needs a simple majority of MPs, given that Labour has only 247 MPs out of 650?
    AIUI he needs a two-thirds majority to vote directly for an early election. A vote of No Confidence is the one that needs a simple majority.
    Sorry - I thought you might have been following the discussions.

    The other possibilities, apart from a 2/3 vote, are:
    (1) A bill to hold an election on a specific date,
    (2) A vote of no confidence in the government, engineering by the government.
    Those are theoretical possibilities, true. In practice, (2) is ridiculous (and I'm not even sure it works in practice, since I think the Speaker can ignore any motion not laid down by the officical LOTO). (1) doesn't survive contact with the reality that is the Lords refusing to allow it passage.
  • The one thing I have to say is that with all these conservatives standing down, and indeed all those who voted with their principles and lost the whip, does demonstrate to me that the labour party mps who put up with Corbyn and fail to do the same have no backbone whatsoever

    I support all these mps and expect the new conservative party, post the GE, to be a very much more a euro septic party

    It will be a long time to me seeking membership again by the looks of it
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Actually, sorry, if Johnson agrees to the extension it will not go well. If he plonked Mays Deal, tarted up a bit, to the public as Tory policy in a GE before Nov, Brexit Party would be wiped out I reckon.

    Yes. Agree. FWIW the only way out of this for the country, and for Boris, is to bring back a TUMD (Tarted Up May Deal). Or "rolled in glitter" as is becoming the vernacular. And because, country aside, it incidentally saves Boris is why it should be front runner.

    I happen to continue to believe it will happen.

    How

    Challenge Labour not to back the deal, throw out the ERG-ers (he would have to as it's not Brexit to them), welcome or not the 21 back. And then leave on Oct 31st.

    And then call the election. Which Lab would have to support.

    At this point remainer Tories would be y that we'd left. I think there would be enough BXP-ers to realise that we'd left so that would leave Nigel with a hollowed out rump. And meanwhile Jezza would be there frightening the horses to a Cons minority or even majority (I'll leave @HYUFD to work up the numbers).

    BXP

    any.
    I find it amazing that anyone would think leave inclined public would be angry at a deal that meant we had left with control over immigration.
    I mean Lab might decide on an open door come all ye policy in their negotiation if they win the GE but that's all in the game.
    Corbyn would very quickly remove all sorts of immigration controls, IMHO.

    In his view it’s the more the merrier.
    Yes and if that floats your boat you could vote that way in the GE. Not you, obvs, but I'm sure there are many who share that view.
    We’d end up with large shanty towns around most major conurbations in south-east England, and a spike in street homelessness. We’d get riots, vigilantism from our lot and probably a spike in petty crime from theirs, perhaps including some tabloid headline sexual and violent offences as well.

    I’m not sure that’s going to prove a huge vote winner. It’d also kick out the existing domestic “struggling” electorate further to the far right as they compete for affordable housing and low skill jobs.

    Happy days.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    These are the numbers that make it clear there will be no GNU and no GE until Nov at the earliest:

    http://britainelects.com/2019/09/07/poll-tories-will-struggle-in-an-election-if-brexit-delayed/
  • What would have happened if; 1. Gov had VONC itself on Thursday 2. Played for time for 2 weeks/ refused to resign 3. Election kicked in. 4. Minimum 25 working days before election 5. Election happens on or after 31st Oct making no deal nailed on.

    I know we're prorogued now so not possible, but what could have stopped the government doing this?

    I think it's step 2. There would have been ways for the no deal majority to communicate that they supported an alternative MP as PM - then the Queen would have had no option but to dismiss Johnson and appoint the replacement.

    One mechanism that has been suggested is a humble address motion in the Commons.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    malcolmg said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Let's not send £10 billion a year to Brussels, let's send £80 billion to the Netherlands instead.
    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1170968674267795456

    Usually spikes in these numbers are the result of one or two large corporate finance (acquisition) activities.
    can you name any
    $17.7bn was RELX. Can't name any others, but that's still about a quarter of the total.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Chris said:

    Endillion said:

    Chris said:

    Endillion said:

    Chris said:

    Mr. Eagles, worth noting the EU permitted no discussion at all ahead of triggering Article 50.

    But Article 50 itself places the negotiation after the notification.

    Just more evidence of the breathtaking ignorance of Brexiteers about the procedures they wanted to set in motion.
    We just assumed the EU wouldn't be so pig-headedly stupid as to actually follow the letter of their ineptly written rules.

    Which is sort of weird, since the EU's habitual blind adherence to bad ideas is a key facet of why we wanted out in the first place.
    You're saying Brexiteers made that pledge based on an understanding that the rules would make it impossible, but an assumption that the rules would be broken? Is that meant to be a good thing to do?
    Neither is continued membership of organisations whose rules make it impossible to leave in an orderly fashion!

    As I recall, the assumption was that the rules would be bent rather than broken (via an "understanding" around the shape of the final deal, followed by two years to negotiate the details). ...
    And you think it was fair to represent that process by saying:
    "we will negotiate the terms of a new deal before we start any legal process to leave"?

    I just think it's useful to know people's opinions about these things, when they're still posting here. Because it will give us an idea of their own attitudes towards truthfulness.
    I understood the issues involved at the time, and couldn't believe that it wouldn't be possible to negotiate the deal via backdoor channels, on the basis that a) no-one had ever tested the practicalities of Article 50 before; b) that seemed to be the way the EU does business in general; and c) it was obviously in everyone's best interests to do so. As I say, the fact that we tried it to no avail makes me more in favour of leaving, not less.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    rcs1000 said:

    Completely off topic, what do PBers think of this movie trailer for JoJo Rabbit

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tL4McUzXfFI

    How did JRM get a part in that?
    Typecasting
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    Mr. B, German disapproval of a Nazi comedy is not necessarily a sign it's bad, though.

    I think Wolfenstein has to do funny things with facial hair to get released in Germany due to depictions of Hitler being legally iffy sometimes.

    Indeed - they didn't much like The Producers, either.

    You can see their point of view, without having to share it.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Shadsy has cut Ken Clarke into 8/1. 12/1 is out there.

    Sounds like a horrendous bet to me.
    Agreed. For reasons often posted, KC looks the least likely option. Nonetheless, sometimes money talks.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Great preview review of David Cameron’s book by Peter Hitchens (who hasn’t read it)

    “A brief hors d’oeurve of chest beating and self flagellation followed by a vast turgid lake of self justification”
  • The one thing I have to say is that with all these conservatives standing down, and indeed all those who voted with their principles and lost the whip, does demonstrate to me that the labour party mps who put up with Corbyn and fail to do the same have no backbone whatsoever

    I support all these mps and expect the new conservative party, post the GE, to be a very much more a euro septic party

    It will be a long time to me seeking membership again by the looks of it

    ditto me. I hope it stimulates a wider One Nation movement though.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Not a rebel.

    Though his fourth paragraph does suggest that he'd be a willing audience for any potential compromise.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    edited September 2019
    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Completely off topic, what do PBers think of this movie trailer for JoJo Rabbit

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tL4McUzXfFI

    How did JRM get a part in that?
    Typecasting
    I did Nazi that coming.
  • isam said:

    Great preview review of David Cameron’s book by Peter Hitchens (who hasn’t read it)

    “A brief hors d’oeurve of chest beating and self flagellation followed by a vast turgid lake of self justification”

    Rather than Cameron, it sounds more of a description of a day in the life of a Brexiteer
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So what, the Tories would still be about 70 seats ahead of Labour even if they lost every Scottish seat to the SNP (Labour will lose 6 seats to the SNP too)

    The key thing is the majority. If we have an election at which Johnson tells everyone the opposition is intent on keeping the UK in the EU and the opposition ends up with a majority of seats, then by Leaver logic there will be a mandate to Remain.

    Possibly though on those figures the DUP could still hold the balance of power giving a majority for Brexit, while if Swinson holds the balance of power as is the only alternative on those numbers she would in her own words refuse to vote for a Corbyn Premiership
    The LD's would support whoever in return for a promise off a referendum...since that is more likely to come from Labour a NOM outcome where the LD's hold the balance of power will almost certainly lead to Corbyn being next PM....
    The LDs will vote down a Corbyn Premiership, they do not need it if they have the numbers for a referendum while it kills them in Tory Remain seats.

    Swinson will only vote for Harman etc as PM
    Usual, me me me , from the Lib Dems. Feck the country it is me me me.
    Absolutely. 2010 was all about increasing lib Dem seats in 2015
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    The one thing I have to say is that with all these conservatives standing down, and indeed all those who voted with their principles and lost the whip, does demonstrate to me that the labour party mps who put up with Corbyn and fail to do the same have no backbone whatsoever

    I support all these mps and expect the new conservative party, post the GE, to be a very much more a euro septic party

    It will be a long time to me seeking membership again by the looks of it

    Was "euro septic" deliberate ? :smile:
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Great preview review of David Cameron’s book by Peter Hitchens (who hasn’t read it)

    “A brief hors d’oeurve of chest beating and self flagellation followed by a vast turgid lake of self justification”

    Rather than Cameron, it sounds more of a description of a day in the life of a Brexiteer
    Oh you and your cutting remarks!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Who’s worse, Dominic Cummings or Andy Coulson?
  • Mr. Isam, no mention of Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill?

    They transformed a 20 point lead into losing seats.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited September 2019
    So Corbyn is putting forward a motion about "the rule of law".. Interesting.

    "Taking advantage of the Speaker’s decision to allow SO24 motions to be used not just for neutral motions (ie, ones with no practical effect), Grieve has used the process to table a “humble address” that would be force the government to release written material. And he is asking for not just one batch of material, but two: all private correspondence relating to the decision to prorogue parliament, and the Operation Yellowhammer government no-deal planning documents. Corbyn’s motion is about the rule of law, but I have not seen the text yet. "
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    isam said:

    Great preview review of David Cameron’s book by Peter Hitchens (who hasn’t read it)

    “A brief hors d’oeurve of chest beating and self flagellation followed by a vast turgid lake of self justification”

    I know you like him, but I've never seen the appeal of Peter Hitchens. He doesn't have his later brother's turn of phrase, and just seems to repeat the same thing week-after-week. At least with Christopher there was a crazy arc of beliefs stretching and changing over a quarter century.

    And Christopher also got himself water boarded for a Vanity Fair article. (Which I would highly recommend reading, btw)
  • The one thing I have to say is that with all these conservatives standing down, and indeed all those who voted with their principles and lost the whip, does demonstrate to me that the labour party mps who put up with Corbyn and fail to do the same have no backbone whatsoever

    I support all these mps and expect the new conservative party, post the GE, to be a very much more a euro septic party

    It will be a long time to me seeking membership again by the looks of it

    ditto me. I hope it stimulates a wider One Nation movement though.
    Septic is the word, I think.
    Disgusting people, all of them.

    Why the f*** don't all the pre-Thatcherites leave and form a One Nation Party taking most of the business funding with them and advocating a move to PR to put an end to unfair election results? I've never been a Tory supporter but I can understand the viewpoints of those who hold views like Clarke (or his mentor, Heath.)

    The Tory right who've given us B***t and want free-er international capital movement - not less of it as they told the plebs in 2016 - seem to lack any understanding of what it means to be poor and one benefit cheque or one pay cheque away from eviction and destitution.
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    Great preview review of David Cameron’s book by Peter Hitchens (who hasn’t read it)

    “A brief hors d’oeurve of chest beating and self flagellation followed by a vast turgid lake of self justification”

    Rather than Cameron, it sounds more of a description of a day in the life of a Brexiteer
    Oh you and your cutting remarks!
    ;)
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Scott_P said:
    Signal and Telegram are both apps with levels of encryption that make it near impossible for authorities to intercept, which is interesting. I know that both have interesting reputations... Telegram specifically is used amongst far right and literal neo nazi groups (although so is twitter, so this isn't to tarnish everyone who uses it) and Signal is used by environmental protesters like Green Peace and XR quite a bit.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited September 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Great preview review of David Cameron’s book by Peter Hitchens (who hasn’t read it)

    “A brief hors d’oeurve of chest beating and self flagellation followed by a vast turgid lake of self justification”

    I know you like him, but I've never seen the appeal of Peter Hitchens. He doesn't have his later brother's turn of phrase, and just seems to repeat the same thing week-after-week. At least with Christopher there was a crazy arc of beliefs stretching and changing over a quarter century.

    And Christopher also got himself water boarded for a Vanity Fair article. (Which I would highly recommend reading, btw)
    I like that he is proud to be considered stuffy and old fashioned in a world where everyone else is desperate to be seen to be jumping on the latest bandwagon. Saying the same thing every week is a part of that I suppose.

    I think he is quite witty too.


    He also gave the greatest ever comeback on QT

    https://youtu.be/puMqlj0QRjA

    I watched Christopher debate Religion with Stephen Fry on his side vs a bishop and someone whose name escapes me once, in Bloomsbury.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Great preview review of David Cameron’s book by Peter Hitchens (who hasn’t read it)

    “A brief hors d’oeurve of chest beating and self flagellation followed by a vast turgid lake of self justification”

    I know you like him, but I've never seen the appeal of Peter Hitchens. He doesn't have his later brother's turn of phrase, and just seems to repeat the same thing week-after-week. At least with Christopher there was a crazy arc of beliefs stretching and changing over a quarter century.

    And Christopher also got himself water boarded for a Vanity Fair article. (Which I would highly recommend reading, btw)
    I think he's a brilliant essayist. Almost as good as Theodore Dalrymple.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,517
    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Actually, sorry, if Johnson agrees to the extension it will not go well. If he plonked Mays Deal, tarted up a bit, to the public as Tory policy in a GE before Nov, Brexit Party would be wiped out I reckon.

    Yes. Agree. FWIW the only way out of this for the country, and for Boris, is to bring back a TUMD (Tarted Up May Deal). Or "rolled in glitter" as is becoming the vernacular. And because, country aside, it incidentally saves Boris is why it should be front runner.

    I happen to continue to believe it will happen.

    How does it save him, though? It will split the Tories evwn further as the ERG would all march off and it would regalvinise Farage. And I doubt that many on the other side of the argument would be that impressed either. It would expose Johnson to everyone as a complete chancer in it only for himself. At the moment, there are still 35% or so of voters who do not view him that way.

    Challenge Labour not to back the deal, throw out the ERG-ers (he would have to as it's not Brexit to them), welcome or not the 21 back. And then leave on Oct 31st.

    And then call the election. Which Lab would have to support.

    At this point remainer Tories would be relieved we didn't have No Deal, and could more willingly vote Cons vs LD or Lab; Leaver Tories would be happy that we'd left. I think there would be enough BXP-ers to realise that we'd left so that would leave Nigel with a hollowed out rump. And meanwhile Jezza would be there frightening the horses to a Cons minority or even majority (I'll leave @HYUFD to work up the numbers).

    BXP + ERG probably equals 30% or so in the country -m and there's the BXP takeover of CCPs on top. If there were an eleciton after a May-like deal was voted through many Tory MPs would stand on a platform opposing it. That's the problem. That said, I think Labour would support May's deal if it came with a ratification referendum with Remain as the other option.

    You think Labour would campaign for the deal? Emily Thornberry would campaign for Remain against her own deal, let alone an evil Tory one
    There was a lot of excitable pearl clutching about this last week.

    Weird. Because it’s a perfectly reasonable position.

    Remain vs viable non-unicorn Leave. I prefer Remain but we’ll put a viable Leave on the ballot for those that disagree.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Nigelb said:

    Mr. B, German disapproval of a Nazi comedy is not necessarily a sign it's bad, though.

    I think Wolfenstein has to do funny things with facial hair to get released in Germany due to depictions of Hitler being legally iffy sometimes.

    Indeed - they didn't much like The Producers, either.

    You can see their point of view, without having to share it.
    I feel this video will do the rounds again on YTube once this film is out, but I agree with it pretty much in its entirety. I trust Taika Waititi, and from the trailer alone you can see it won't fall into the traps of films like Fight Club which are supposed to be satires, but in the end seem to aggrandise the thing they're satirising instead...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62cPPSyoQkE
This discussion has been closed.