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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Changing the Prime Minister might be the only way

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  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    Surprisingly today's economic data is pretty good with GDP, manufacturing, construction and trade all better than expected:

    https://www.forexfactory.com/

    Strange how we've not been treated to multiple tweets about it.

    :wink:

    The construction figures state that output over the 3 months fell by 0.8%. Such a small decline in the official figures suggests a genuine boom going by historical precedents.
    A lot of building work going on around London but I just have a perception the pace has slackened and some sites I would have expected to have seen work commencing are still idle. Could this be a capacity issue?

    Could well be related to Brexit as well if tradesmen from the EU are more reluctant to come given the uncertainties of their residence status. We are paying a very heavy price for all this procrastination.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If you seek Brexit you should write two letters.

    Which one will be decide to send this time?
    Does the Act state he has to send the letter ?
    Or you could ask, does the Act state he has to send the letter ?

    Bori has only ever claimed that he will not ask for an extension. He has left weasel room for Stephen Barclay to ask for the extension.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If you seek Brexit you should write two letters.

    Which one will be decide to send this time?
    Does the Act state he has to send the letter ?
    He has to seek to obtain an extension . The form of the letter is in the Act . Now clearly he can say what he likes when he goes to EU summit .

    However doing anything to sabotage an extension by sending another letter goading the EU would be in breach of the Act .
  • TOPPING said:

    I don't see how the government honouring the letter of the law while sending a supplementary letter under prerogative is illegal.

    I'm guessing you are not now nor were you ever a Supreme Court judge so it is perhaps not surprising that you are unable to see whether something relatively complex is legal or illegal.

    I think you misunderstood my point of course I am not a lawyer but there seem to me to be two logical scenarios:

    Scenario 1: I can understand how the law could make this illegal, but that would have required Queen's Consent.

    Scenario 2: I can understand how Queen's Consent was not needed because prerogative wasn't affected, which would mean the law should not make this illegal.

    Saying the law changed what could be done under prerogative but didn't need Queen's Consent is a bit "cake and eat it". Since Speaker Bercow ruled Queen's Consent wasn't required we should surely be in scenario 2.
    The Miller case established that triggering Article 50 is not a prerogative power. It follows that the decision whether to extend it or not also is not a prerogative power. If he seeks to use his prerogative powers - which are unaffected - to interfere with the extension of Article 50 then he will be in breach of the law.

    Johnson can send whatever letters he wishes, but the content of those letters may be in breach of the law. He needs to be more careful with what he writes then when he was a newspaper columnist.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    Surprisingly today's economic data is pretty good with GDP, manufacturing, construction and trade all better than expected:

    https://www.forexfactory.com/

    Strange how we've not been treated to multiple tweets about it.

    :wink:

    The construction figures state that output over the 3 months fell by 0.8%. Such a small decline in the official figures suggests a genuine boom going by historical precedents.
    A lot of building work going on around London but I just have a perception the pace has slackened and some sites I would have expected to have seen work commencing are still idle. Could this be a capacity issue?

    There was definitely reports of capacity issues between Crossrail and a.n.other project that I can't remember. With crossrail still not finished that could stil be the case.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Byronic said:

    DavidL said:

    UK looks to avoid a technical recession by the skin of its teeth: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/july2019

    -0.2 in Q2 and 0.0 in the 3 months to July but +0.3 in July. Makes a further contraction in Q3 unlikely if not impossible.

    The latest GDP stats are actually surprisingly good.
    I think our figures are being so distorted by Brexit (stock building Q1, winding down of stocks in Q2, utter bewilderment in Q3) at the moment that it is very hard to identify a clear underlying trend. Our economy is slowing but whether it is being as hard hit as the EZ by the global slowdown is hard to say. Javid's significant cash injection means growth really ought to pick up a tad next year but if Parliament is still arsing about who knows?
    We're in a consumption bubble - it will end at some point.

    But quite a bit of the construction spending seems to be based on it not ending.
    The trade figures are a little surprising, big fall in the trade deficit largely caused by reduction in imports of goods: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/july2019

    Might it just be that the consumer bubble is finally shrinking? Hard to tell with the Brexit noise.
    Or stockpiling has hit a limit imposed by available warehouse space (and capital to be tied up). Two years from now, the figures will be revised beyond recognition in any case.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    Scott_P said:
    Johnson looks really uncomfortable standing there while Varadkar is talking.
  • CatMan said:

    How many of the EU citizens who live in the UK are Irish? A lot of people wouldn't consider them to be "foreigners" although of course they are really.

    There is a 1948 Act that specifically states that under UK law citizens of the Republic of Ireland are not to be considered foreign.

    So the law states exactly the opposite.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    TOPPING said:

    I don't see how the government honouring the letter of the law while sending a supplementary letter under prerogative is illegal.

    I'm guessing you are not now nor were you ever a Supreme Court judge so it is perhaps not surprising that you are unable to see whether something relatively complex is legal or illegal.

    I think you misunderstood my point of course I am not a lawyer but there seem to me to be two logical scenarios:

    Scenario 1: I can understand how the law could make this illegal, but that would have required Queen's Consent.

    Scenario 2: I can understand how Queen's Consent was not needed because prerogative wasn't affected, which would mean the law should not make this illegal.

    Saying the law changed what could be done under prerogative but didn't need Queen's Consent is a bit "cake and eat it". Since Speaker Bercow ruled Queen's Consent wasn't required we should surely be in scenario 2.
    The Miller case established that triggering Article 50 is not a prerogative power. It follows that the decision whether to extend it or not also is not a prerogative power. If he seeks to use his prerogative powers - which are unaffected - to interfere with the extension of Article 50 then he will be in breach of the law.

    Johnson can send whatever letters he wishes, but the content of those letters may be in breach of the law. He needs to be more careful with what he writes then when he was a newspaper columnist.
    He can send the other letter the day before, refusing to seek or accept an extension can be the uks official position right up to the second the extension request letter is sent.
    And as has been said, they have TV and internet
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Byronic said:

    DavidL said:

    UK looks to avoid a technical recession by the skin of its teeth: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/july2019

    -0.2 in Q2 and 0.0 in the 3 months to July but +0.3 in July. Makes a further contraction in Q3 unlikely if not impossible.

    The latest GDP stats are actually surprisingly good.
    I think our figures are being so distorted by Brexit (stock building Q1, winding down of stocks in Q2, utter bewilderment in Q3) at the moment that it is very hard to identify a clear underlying trend. Our economy is slowing but whether it is being as hard hit as the EZ by the global slowdown is hard to say. Javid's significant cash injection means growth really ought to pick up a tad next year but if Parliament is still arsing about who knows?
    We're in a consumption bubble - it will end at some point.

    But quite a bit of the construction spending seems to be based on it not ending.
    The trade figures are a little surprising, big fall in the trade deficit largely caused by reduction in imports of goods: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/july2019

    Might it just be that the consumer bubble is finally shrinking? Hard to tell with the Brexit noise.
    Or stockpiling has hit a limit imposed by available warehouse space (and capital to be tied up). Two years from now, the figures will be revised beyond recognition in any case.
    Very amusing interview with Iceland CEO (the shop not the country) saying that the answer to any potential food shortage problems was very clear - we should buy more frozen food.
  • Scott_P said:
    Isn't this the point @Cyclefree and others have often made here -- that Brexit is the start of a process rather than a discrete event?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited September 2019

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Superb piece Casino although it’s another piece by a Remainer. 🤣

    Glad to see you responding to criticism 👍🏻

    Although the thrust of the criticism was that the articles were all pro Remain, not necessarily that they were always written by Remain voters. This article is not pro Leave
    I campaigned for Leave, voted Leave and still advocate Leave. I am a Leaver. Further this article describes a course of action which would still result in us Leaving.

    So that’s incorrect.
    I never said you weren’t a leaver, so the first 15 words there are unnecessary.

    It describes a course of action that results in us leaving, of course. That doesn’t make it pro or anti in my book. None of this was a criticism of you, get to work.
    Your post suggested my thread was somehow anti-Leave, and that it had a Remain flavour. I take exception to that.

    You’ve responded partly magnanimously but also laced it with tetchiness.

    I haven’t written many thread headers for this site butbit of debate out on outcomes.

    I’d have thought you’d appreciate that as an established punter.
    I just thought it was a neutral article about politics and betting, and I quite liked reading it. I replied to Eagles because he tried to make out it was an example of the sites headers not being as remain biased as they are, and I thought a leaver writing neutrally doesn’t redress the balance.

    Did you write ‘15/1’?
    Fair enough.

    Yes, I wrote 15/1 or perhaps even 12/1. I think he’s in a good position to pull together a large chunk of Tory MPs in an emergency situation and reach across the house, and the opposition know they’ll be no better way to piss off Boris.

    So I have him at about as likely as Ken Clarke.

    Why don’t you write something tip-based?

    You have before (I think) and I’m sure it’d be published.
    Before the last GE I wrote an article saying pollsters should weight down the overly politically engaged to get more accurate results. Mike said it wasn’t worthy of publishing, then YOUGOV nailed the election by doing just that with their constituency MRP thing.

    I had offered several articles about politics and betting before but, even as a prospective UKIP candidate and professional gambler in the heady days of 2014/15, they were rejected, so I doubt they would be accepted now even if I felt the need to try/had anything new to say.

    You can read here though...

    http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.com/
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    eristdoof said:

    Johnson looks really uncomfortable standing there while Varadkar is talking.

    BoZo looks uncomfortable any time anyone says anything except how wonderful he is...
  • Lord Ashcroft focus group:

    Asked who was responsible for the parliamentary impasse, neither remainers nor leavers distinguished between the parties or factions: “It’s all of them. The politicians should have dealt with it in a more professional and grown-up way.” After all, “parliament came to the country. MPs were voted into parliament and they should work together to get us out”.“All the parties are so split. Even half the Cabinet don’t agree with what he says;” “Both sides lied in the referendum. It’s led to the public not knowing who they can trust.” Touchingly, some thought they should still be able to expect better from their elected representatives: “They might all be lying cheating thieving bastards but they should set an example.”

    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/09/what-my-latest-focus-groups-say-about-the-twists-and-turns-of-the-brexit-drama/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    edited September 2019
    The biggest single obstacle to Casino's interesting scenario is the need for Labour MPs to come up with an electorally plausible reason for voting in favour of the WA they voted three times against.

    And without the Lib Dems and SNP, that needs to be a lot of Labour MPs.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912

    isam said:

    Superb piece Casino although it’s another piece by a Remainer. 🤣

    Glad to see you responding to criticism 👍🏻

    Although the thrust of the criticism was that the articles were all pro Remain, not necessarily that they were always written by Remain voters. This article is not pro Leave
    I campaigned for Leave, voted Leave and still advocate Leave. I am a Leaver. Further this article describes a course of action which would still result in us Leaving.

    So that’s incorrect.
    We've reached the point where if you favour leaving with ANY sort of deal you are no longer a real leaver. It's nuts, but that's where we are.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,060

    CatMan said:

    How many of the EU citizens who live in the UK are Irish? A lot of people wouldn't consider them to be "foreigners" although of course they are really.

    There is a 1948 Act that specifically states that under UK law citizens of the Republic of Ireland are not to be considered foreign.

    So the law states exactly the opposite.
    Ah, didn't know that. But presumably they make up a large % of the EU citizens who live in the UK?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    eristdoof said:

    Mr. Stodge, I partly agree but I think there may well be a drive for another referendum.

    Not only is that perhaps the only way for pro-EU types to try and sustainably overturn the previous result, they may have a much better shot at winning it than a General Election.

    A second referendum also has the benefit of knowing what type of leave really is on offer. One of the biggest problems at the moment is the friction between "Brexit is the will of the people" and "this is not the type of Brexit we voted for"
    This is a "problem" only in the eyes of remainers who are using it to de-legitimise the result ofthe first referendum.

    If, by using this or other procedural devices, 'remain' succeeds in overturning the referendum (in which i voted for 'remain', by the way) a terrible Pandora's box will have been opened which in due course will de-legitimise UK politics and the electoral process. People will say "if you wont abide by my majority vote, then why should i abide by yours?".
    Just make referendums illegal, and the problem evaporates.
  • “A trade unionist in the pub insisted”

    That is all you need to know about Mr. Maguires writing.

  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    DavidL said:

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    Surprisingly today's economic data is pretty good with GDP, manufacturing, construction and trade all better than expected:

    https://www.forexfactory.com/

    Strange how we've not been treated to multiple tweets about it.

    :wink:

    The construction figures state that output over the 3 months fell by 0.8%. Such a small decline in the official figures suggests a genuine boom going by historical precedents.
    A lot of building work going on around London but I just have a perception the pace has slackened and some sites I would have expected to have seen work commencing are still idle. Could this be a capacity issue?

    Could well be related to Brexit as well if tradesmen from the EU are more reluctant to come given the uncertainties of their residence status. We are paying a very heavy price for all this procrastination.
    The rate of new "tradesmen" coming "from the EU" between 2016 and the end of 2020 would have been be roughly similar if May's deal had been voted through in December 2018 or prevarocation.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Sounds like the grown ups are talking.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Scott_P said:
    ScottP quoting Gavin Eslar quoting Mike Galsworthy. A hideous Mandelbrot Set of Remoanerism.
  • Not sure if this has been linked to, but it is very interesting - and I'd say extremely important - on what people think about closing down Parliament if you drill just a little bit deeper ...
    https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1170987271492972544
  • CatMan said:

    CatMan said:

    How many of the EU citizens who live in the UK are Irish? A lot of people wouldn't consider them to be "foreigners" although of course they are really.

    There is a 1948 Act that specifically states that under UK law citizens of the Republic of Ireland are not to be considered foreign.

    So the law states exactly the opposite.
    Ah, didn't know that. But presumably they make up a large % of the EU citizens who live in the UK?
    The 3.1 million or so EU citizens resident in the U.K. does NOT include Irish citizens in the total. Estimates vary - this Irish Times Article reckons 400,000

    https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/abroad/britain-s-shrinking-ageing-irish-population-1.3817868
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    glw said:

    isam said:

    Superb piece Casino although it’s another piece by a Remainer. 🤣

    Glad to see you responding to criticism 👍🏻

    Although the thrust of the criticism was that the articles were all pro Remain, not necessarily that they were always written by Remain voters. This article is not pro Leave
    I campaigned for Leave, voted Leave and still advocate Leave. I am a Leaver. Further this article describes a course of action which would still result in us Leaving.

    So that’s incorrect.
    We've reached the point where if you favour leaving with ANY sort of deal you are no longer a real leaver. It's nuts, but that's where we are.
    Have we? Are we?

    Who on here says no deal is better than a deal?
  • So, logically speaking that means he has received some proposals?

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    So, logically speaking that means he has received some proposals?

    Wasn't it just the WA with stuff crossed out?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    CatMan said:

    How many of the EU citizens who live in the UK are Irish? A lot of people wouldn't consider them to be "foreigners" although of course they are really.

    There is a 1948 Act that specifically states that under UK law citizens of the Republic of Ireland are not to be considered foreign.

    So the law states exactly the opposite.
    But a similar EU "rule" applies exactly the same to Germans living in the UK. They are not allowed to be treated as Foreign.

    If you are going to class Germans living in the UK as Immigrants, you have to class Irish living in the UK as Immigrants.

  • Dom will have thought up an absolutely brilliant and inarguable alternative to the backstop. It's what he does! Watch Varadkar emerge blinking into the light as he has to admit that Boris has solved everything.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    Dom will have thought up an absolutely brilliant and inarguable alternative to the backstop. It's what he does! Watch Varadkar emerge blinking into the light as he has to admit that Boris has solved everything.

    It's called the "Frontstop"
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    Scott_P said:
    Isn't this the point @Cyclefree and others have often made here -- that Brexit is the start of a process rather than a discrete event?
    Yep No Deal would just be the starting point.

    And we would have to start renegotiating 50 years worth of agreements having ignored the other sides offers of help.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    So, logically speaking that means he has received some proposals?

    Wasn't it just the WA with stuff crossed out?
    Which, surely, is exactly how you begin a discussion. We want this, but we want to lose this and this, let's discuss how we do that, if you can accommodate the broad principle
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    So, logically speaking that means he has received some proposals?

    Wasn't it just the WA with stuff crossed out?
    Which, surely, is exactly how you begin a discussion. We want this, but we want to lose this and this, let's discuss how we do that, if you can accommodate the broad principle
    With added Parliament won't vote for this anyway.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    edited September 2019
    On a rough estimate, how many MPs in the Commons do we think have as their priority sorting out the current mess, by means of some agreed compromise, and how many are far more concerned with positioning themselves for the coming general election ?
  • Scott_P said:
    Isn't this the point @Cyclefree and others have often made here -- that Brexit is the start of a process rather than a discrete event?

    Of course it is. On 1st November, UK citizens and businesses will be less free than they are now and the UK government will have less control than it does currently. This will not be sustainable, even if the mechanics of No Deal turn out to be fine (which means they will be fine for everyone else as well).

    Fascinating to see Johnson react to being spoken to calmly by a grown-up. I suspect very few people have ever spoken to him like that before with him being unable to respond or interject. No wonder he looked so uncomfortable.

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    eek said:

    So, logically speaking that means he has received some proposals?

    Wasn't it just the WA with stuff crossed out?
    Which, surely, is exactly how you begin a discussion. We want this, but we want to lose this and this, let's discuss how we do that, if you can accommodate the broad principle
    With added Parliament won't vote for this anyway.
    Yes, it's all optics. On all sides.
  • eristdoof said:

    CatMan said:

    How many of the EU citizens who live in the UK are Irish? A lot of people wouldn't consider them to be "foreigners" although of course they are really.

    There is a 1948 Act that specifically states that under UK law citizens of the Republic of Ireland are not to be considered foreign.

    So the law states exactly the opposite.
    But a similar EU "rule" applies exactly the same to Germans living in the UK. They are not allowed to be treated as Foreign.

    If you are going to class Germans living in the UK as Immigrants, you have to class Irish living in the UK as Immigrants.

    Except there is a 97 year old agreement between Ireland and the U.K. which both sides have agreed they will continue and the EU accepts.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912
    isam said:

    glw said:

    isam said:

    Superb piece Casino although it’s another piece by a Remainer. 🤣

    Glad to see you responding to criticism 👍🏻

    Although the thrust of the criticism was that the articles were all pro Remain, not necessarily that they were always written by Remain voters. This article is not pro Leave
    I campaigned for Leave, voted Leave and still advocate Leave. I am a Leaver. Further this article describes a course of action which would still result in us Leaving.

    So that’s incorrect.
    We've reached the point where if you favour leaving with ANY sort of deal you are no longer a real leaver. It's nuts, but that's where we are.
    Have we? Are we?

    Who on here says no deal is better than a deal?
    On here? I don't know, but I've heard many Brexiteers saying no-deal WTO rules is the best option recently.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    So, logically speaking that means he has received some proposals?

    Wasn't it just the WA with stuff crossed out?
    Which, surely, is exactly how you begin a discussion. We want this, but we want to lose this and this, let's discuss how we do that, if you can accommodate the broad principle
    Clearly not as Merkel gave BoZo 30 days to submit detailed proposals.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Dutch minister weighs in with no extension without GE/referendum
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    glw said:

    On here? I don't know, but I've heard many Brexiteers saying no-deal WTO rules is the best option recently.

    https://twitter.com/TomTugendhat/status/1170804606810689537
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912

    Dom will have thought up an absolutely brilliant and inarguable alternative to the backstop. It's what he does! Watch Varadkar emerge blinking into the light as he has to admit that Boris has solved everything.

    There is a tiny bit of me that wonders if the plan is to demolish all the ERG approaches in record time, leaving the WA standing as the only option left.
  • eek said:

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    Surprisingly today's economic data is pretty good with GDP, manufacturing, construction and trade all better than expected:

    https://www.forexfactory.com/

    Strange how we've not been treated to multiple tweets about it.

    :wink:

    The construction figures state that output over the 3 months fell by 0.8%. Such a small decline in the official figures suggests a genuine boom going by historical precedents.
    A lot of building work going on around London but I just have a perception the pace has slackened and some sites I would have expected to have seen work commencing are still idle. Could this be a capacity issue?

    There was definitely reports of capacity issues between Crossrail and a.n.other project that I can't remember. With crossrail still not finished that could stil be the case.
    Crossrail is basically required to keep TfL solvent.

    It should also free up a little bit of capacity on the GWML into Paddington (high level) - and therefore the bakerloo/central - as passengers from the West can take trains direct into central London.

    Without it Crossrail 2 doesn’t make sense and HS2 passengers become harder to clear too, but there’s not a direct link.

    Crossrail will open it’s just a question of when. Trains have to be safe and reliable and it’s the integration testing and software performance that is hard to predict, and needs exhaustive proofing.
  • Lord Ashcroft focus group:

    Asked who was responsible for the parliamentary impasse, neither remainers nor leavers distinguished between the parties or factions: “It’s all of them. The politicians should have dealt with it in a more professional and grown-up way.” After all, “parliament came to the country. MPs were voted into parliament and they should work together to get us out”.“All the parties are so split. Even half the Cabinet don’t agree with what he says;” “Both sides lied in the referendum. It’s led to the public not knowing who they can trust.” Touchingly, some thought they should still be able to expect better from their elected representatives: “They might all be lying cheating thieving bastards but they should set an example.”

    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/09/what-my-latest-focus-groups-say-about-the-twists-and-turns-of-the-brexit-drama/

    "The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, had installed a new leader since some of our Cornish participants had voted for the party in 2017. Could they identify the individual? “I think they’re male.” No. “Has she got short hair?” No. It’s Jo Swinson. Blank faces. “Well she hasn’t made much of an impact if she’s new. I’ve never bloody heard of her."

    Ouch!
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    So, logically speaking that means he has received some proposals?

    Wasn't it just the WA with stuff crossed out?
    Which, surely, is exactly how you begin a discussion. We want this, but we want to lose this and this, let's discuss how we do that, if you can accommodate the broad principle
    Clearly not as Merkel gave BoZo 30 days to submit detailed proposals.
    Well he obviously chose to submit broad proposals. Merkel isn't universe boss
    Hes not trying to get a deal any more than the EU will accommodate a new deal. They are all doing the minimum to convince their own voters they did what they said they'd do
  • Nigelb said:

    On a rough estimate, how many MPs in the Commons do we think have as their priority sorting out the current mess, by means of some agreed compromise, and how many are far more concerned with positioning themselves for the coming general election ?
    At present, I’m afraid, I think it’s probably only around 100-150 MPs.

    That may change as the deadline looms. But if they bring that Bill too early it will crash to the floor again.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843

    Sounds like the grown ups are talking.
    I think they would need to attach a 'confirmatory referendum' to it to get it passed though. Several Labour MPs (I believe Jess Philips was one but there are others) have said they would vote through May's deal if it is subject to a referendum. Without that, I don't see Labour backing it, and LDs/SNP won't either.
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Superb piece Casino although it’s another piece by a Remainer. 🤣

    Glad to see you responding to criticism 👍🏻

    Although the thrust of the criticism was that the articles were all pro Remain, not necessarily that they were always written by Remain voters. This article is not pro Leave
    I

    So that’s incorrect.
    I never said you weren’t a leaver, so the first 15 words there are unnecessary.

    It describes a course of action that results in us leaving, of course. That doesn’t make it pro or anti in my book. None of this was a criticism of you, get to work.
    Your post suggested my thread was somehow anti-Leave, and that it had a Remain flavour. I take exception to that.

    You’ve responded partly magnanimously but also laced it with tetchiness.

    I haven’t written many thread headers for this site butbit of debate out on outcomes.

    I’d have thought you’d appreciate that as an established punter.
    I just thought it was a neutral article about politics and betting, and I quite liked reading it. I replied to Eagles because he tried to make out it was an example of the sites headers not being as remain biased as they are, and I thought a leaver writing neutrally doesn’t redress the balance.

    Did you write ‘15/1’?
    Fair enough.

    Yes, I wrote 15/1 or perhaps even 12/1. I think he’s in a good position to pull together a large chunk of Tory MPs in an emergency situation and reach across the house, and the opposition know they’ll be no better way to piss off Boris.

    So I have him at about as likely as Ken Clarke.

    Why don’t you write something tip-based?

    You have before (I think) and I’m sure it’d be published.
    Before the last GE I wrote an article saying pollsters should weight down the overly politically engaged to get more accurate results. Mike said it wasn’t worthy of publishing, then YOUGOV nailed the election by doing just that with their constituency MRP thing.

    I had offered several articles about politics and betting before but, even as a prospective UKIP candidate and professional gambler in the heady days of 2014/15, they were rejected, so I doubt they would be accepted now even if I felt the need to try/had anything new to say.

    You can read here though...

    http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.com/
    Thanks. Please keep trying.

    I never think mine will get published either and sometimes it’s just a question of timing.
  • eristdoof said:

    Dom will have thought up an absolutely brilliant and inarguable alternative to the backstop. It's what he does! Watch Varadkar emerge blinking into the light as he has to admit that Boris has solved everything.

    It's called the "Frontstop"
    Details tbc at some future unicorny point.
  • eristdoof said:

    CatMan said:

    How many of the EU citizens who live in the UK are Irish? A lot of people wouldn't consider them to be "foreigners" although of course they are really.

    There is a 1948 Act that specifically states that under UK law citizens of the Republic of Ireland are not to be considered foreign.

    So the law states exactly the opposite.
    But a similar EU "rule" applies exactly the same to Germans living in the UK. They are not allowed to be treated as Foreign.

    If you are going to class Germans living in the UK as Immigrants, you have to class Irish living in the UK as Immigrants.

    I'm a great believer in counting all the numbers you can. I'm sure there are some numbers on Irish citizens in the UK.

    However, there is a very real legal distinction between EU citizens and Irish citizens under UK law. After Brexit it becomes more important, but it matters even now.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Nigelb said:

    On a rough estimate, how many MPs in the Commons do we think have as their priority sorting out the current mess, by means of some agreed compromise, and how many are far more concerned with positioning themselves for the coming general election ?
    At present, I’m afraid, I think it’s probably only around 100-150 MPs.

    That may change as the deadline looms. But if they bring that Bill too early it will crash to the floor again.
    Nothing can now be brought to the house before the EU council meeting. Presumably after their respective conferences have given them all disparate policies
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Scott_P said:
    So long as it's not the Judgment of Boris...
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Lord Ashcroft focus group:

    Asked who was responsible for the parliamentary impasse, neither remainers nor leavers distinguished between the parties or factions: “It’s all of them. The politicians should have dealt with it in a more professional and grown-up way.” After all, “parliament came to the country. MPs were voted into parliament and they should work together to get us out”.“All the parties are so split. Even half the Cabinet don’t agree with what he says;” “Both sides lied in the referendum. It’s led to the public not knowing who they can trust.” Touchingly, some thought they should still be able to expect better from their elected representatives: “They might all be lying cheating thieving bastards but they should set an example.”

    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/09/what-my-latest-focus-groups-say-about-the-twists-and-turns-of-the-brexit-drama/

    "The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, had installed a new leader since some of our Cornish participants had voted for the party in 2017. Could they identify the individual? “I think they’re male.” No. “Has she got short hair?” No. It’s Jo Swinson. Blank faces. “Well she hasn’t made much of an impact if she’s new. I’ve never bloody heard of her."

    Ouch!

    Lord Ashcroft focus group:

    Asked who was responsible for the parliamentary impasse, neither remainers nor leavers distinguished between the parties or factions: “It’s all of them. The politicians should have dealt with it in a more professional and grown-up way.” After all, “parliament came to the country. MPs were voted into parliament and they should work together to get us out”.“All the parties are so split. Even half the Cabinet don’t agree with what he says;” “Both sides lied in the referendum. It’s led to the public not knowing who they can trust.” Touchingly, some thought they should still be able to expect better from their elected representatives: “They might all be lying cheating thieving bastards but they should set an example.”

    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/09/what-my-latest-focus-groups-say-about-the-twists-and-turns-of-the-brexit-drama/

    "The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, had installed a new leader since some of our Cornish participants had voted for the party in 2017. Could they identify the individual? “I think they’re male.” No. “Has she got short hair?” No. It’s Jo Swinson. Blank faces. “Well she hasn’t made much of an impact if she’s new. I’ve never bloody heard of her."

    Ouch!</blockqu

    ..
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    glw said:

    isam said:

    Superb piece Casino although it’s another piece by a Remainer. 🤣

    Glad to see you responding to criticism 👍🏻

    Although the thrust of the criticism was that the articles were all pro Remain, not necessarily that they were always written by Remain voters. This article is not pro Leave
    I campaigned for Leave, voted Leave and still advocate Leave. I am a Leaver. Further this article describes a course of action which would still result in us Leaving.

    So that’s incorrect.
    We've reached the point where if you favour leaving with ANY sort of deal you are no longer a real leaver. It's nuts, but that's where we are.
    An argument for leaving with no deal is that you have a blank canvas from which it may be easier to move to EFTA, EEA. WTO, Singapore sur la mer or other situation with less complications than the restrictions and requirements of the pre negotiated deal that wasn't structured for future unknown developments.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    eek said:

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    Surprisingly today's economic data is pretty good with GDP, manufacturing, construction and trade all better than expected:

    https://www.forexfactory.com/

    Strange how we've not been treated to multiple tweets about it.

    :wink:

    The construction figures state that output over the 3 months fell by 0.8%. Such a small decline in the official figures suggests a genuine boom going by historical precedents.
    A lot of building work going on around London but I just have a perception the pace has slackened and some sites I would have expected to have seen work commencing are still idle. Could this be a capacity issue?

    There was definitely reports of capacity issues between Crossrail and a.n.other project that I can't remember. With crossrail still not finished that could stil be the case.
    Crossrail is basically required to keep TfL solvent.

    It should also free up a little bit of capacity on the GWML into Paddington (high level) - and therefore the bakerloo/central - as passengers from the West can take trains direct into central London.

    Without it Crossrail 2 doesn’t make sense and HS2 passengers become harder to clear too, but there’s not a direct link.

    Crossrail will open it’s just a question of when. Trains have to be safe and reliable and it’s the integration testing and software performance that is hard to predict, and needs exhaustive proofing.
    What's your best guess opening date eg to Bond St and points further East?
  • Dutch minister weighs in with no extension without GE/referendum

    Under the Benn Bill there would be a vote in the Commons on whether to accept the extension offered by the EU, so it would be for the Commons to decide between that and no deal.
  • glw said:

    isam said:

    Superb piece Casino although it’s another piece by a Remainer. 🤣

    Glad to see you responding to criticism 👍🏻

    Although the thrust of the criticism was that the articles were all pro Remain, not necessarily that they were always written by Remain voters. This article is not pro Leave
    I campaigned for Leave, voted Leave and still advocate Leave. I am a Leaver. Further this article describes a course of action which would still result in us Leaving.

    So that’s incorrect.
    We've reached the point where if you favour leaving with ANY sort of deal you are no longer a real leaver. It's nuts, but that's where we are.
    There’s a subtle difference between the Brexit Party/UKIP and Tory party wings on this.

    For the former, it’s purely ideological: clean break, full independence; no ifs, no buts. They are a bit more interested in fortress Britain and more isolationist.

    For the latter - and I know a little bit about this because about ten years ago I went to Conservative Way Forward meetings - it’s become a test of “soundness”. It’s all about showing you’re the true inheritor of Thatcher’s radical legacy. They are much more interested in very radical deregulation and fetishise the UK-US relationship aka Thatcher/Reagan.

    If you look at the ERG and Spartans, plus their journalists and friends, they are almost *all* socially within this circle. And as the goalposts have moved ever further to a clean Brexit, they’ve moved with it. Anyone who objects or proposes a compromise will be rejected -socially at first - as a “wet”.

    If I was still involved - fortunately, I’m not - I expect I’d already have been ostracised by now and put into that category.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    philiph said:

    glw said:

    isam said:

    Superb piece Casino although it’s another piece by a Remainer. 🤣

    Glad to see you responding to criticism 👍🏻

    Although the thrust of the criticism was that the articles were all pro Remain, not necessarily that they were always written by Remain voters. This article is not pro Leave
    I campaigned for Leave, voted Leave and still advocate Leave. I am a Leaver. Further this article describes a course of action which would still result in us Leaving.

    So that’s incorrect.
    We've reached the point where if you favour leaving with ANY sort of deal you are no longer a real leaver. It's nuts, but that's where we are.
    An argument for leaving with no deal is that you have a blank canvas from which it may be easier to move to EFTA, EEA. WTO, Singapore sur la mer or other situation with less complications than the restrictions and requirements of the pre negotiated deal that wasn't structured for future unknown developments.
    An argument for levelling York is that you have a blank canvas on which to rebuild, too. Doesn't make it a good idea.
  • TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    Surprisingly today's economic data is pretty good with GDP, manufacturing, construction and trade all better than expected:

    https://www.forexfactory.com/

    Strange how we've not been treated to multiple tweets about it.

    :wink:

    The construction figures state that output over the 3 months fell by 0.8%. Such a small decline in the official figures suggests a genuine boom going by historical precedents.
    A lot of building work going on around London but I just have a perception the pace has slackened and some sites I would have expected to have seen work commencing are still idle. Could this be a capacity issue?

    There was definitely reports of capacity issues between Crossrail and a.n.other project that I can't remember. With crossrail still not finished that could stil be the case.
    Crossrail is basically required to keep TfL solvent.

    It should also free up a little bit of capacity on the GWML into Paddington (high level) - and therefore the bakerloo/central - as passengers from the West can take trains direct into central London.

    Without it Crossrail 2 doesn’t make sense and HS2 passengers become harder to clear too, but there’s not a direct link.

    Crossrail will open it’s just a question of when. Trains have to be safe and reliable and it’s the integration testing and software performance that is hard to predict, and needs exhaustive proofing.
    What's your best guess opening date eg to Bond St and points further East?
    2021
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited September 2019

    Dutch minister weighs in with no extension without GE/referendum

    Under the Benn Bill there would be a vote in the Commons on whether to accept the extension offered by the EU, so it would be for the Commons to decide between that and no deal.
    It won't be a condition of offer, they are indicating no offer without one in place first
    And if it were, bizarrely, a condition that a GE is called, the Tories would do an opposition and vote down the FTPA demand for one and hence scupper the extension
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    It's only a bunch of psychologists, so not that "shocking", but this is quite timely:

    The Shocking Paper Predicting the End of Democracy
    https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/09/08/shawn-rosenberg-democracy-228045
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    Surprisingly today's economic data is pretty good with GDP, manufacturing, construction and trade all better than expected:

    https://www.forexfactory.com/

    Strange how we've not been treated to multiple tweets about it.

    :wink:

    The construction figures state that output over the 3 months fell by 0.8%. Such a small decline in the official figures suggests a genuine boom going by historical precedents.
    A lot of building work going on around London but I just have a perception the pace has slackened and some sites I would have expected to have seen work commencing are still idle. Could this be a capacity issue?

    There was definitely reports of capacity issues between Crossrail and a.n.other project that I can't remember. With crossrail still not finished that could stil be the case.
    Crossrail is basically required to keep TfL solvent.

    It should also free up a little bit of capacity on the GWML into Paddington (high level) - and therefore the bakerloo/central - as passengers from the West can take trains direct into central London.

    Without it Crossrail 2 doesn’t make sense and HS2 passengers become harder to clear too, but there’s not a direct link.

    Crossrail will open it’s just a question of when. Trains have to be safe and reliable and it’s the integration testing and software performance that is hard to predict, and needs exhaustive proofing.
    What's your best guess opening date eg to Bond St and points further East?
    My post wasn't an attack on Crossrail more the fact it isn't finished is probably a reason why some other projects are delayed..

    Personally I have zero problems with proper infrastructure projects most just need decent PR.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    Nigelb said:

    On a rough estimate, how many MPs in the Commons do we think have as their priority sorting out the current mess, by means of some agreed compromise, and how many are far more concerned with positioning themselves for the coming general election ?
    At present, I’m afraid, I think it’s probably only around 100-150 MPs.

    That may change as the deadline looms. But if they bring that Bill too early it will crash to the floor again.
    Would have to change pretty fast, though.

    What are the odds ?
  • DavidL said:


    I am a leaver but this is pretty serious. Has Boris lied to the House of Commons about negotiations with the EU? It seems obvious that he has. That is not a trivial matter. In my view Blair really should have gone to jail for his lies about WMD. Why should Boris be different?

    Jail them both, unite the nation
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    Dutch minister weighs in with no extension without GE/referendum

    Question - which one of those would finish this off once and for all.

    And if a referendum exactly what should the leave option be (May's deal or No Deal).
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    Surprisingly today's economic data is pretty good with GDP, manufacturing, construction and trade all better than expected:

    https://www.forexfactory.com/

    Strange how we've not been treated to multiple tweets about it.

    :wink:

    The construction figures state that output over the 3 months fell by 0.8%. Such a small decline in the official figures suggests a genuine boom going by historical precedents.
    A lot of building work going on around London but I just have a perception the pace has slackened and some sites I would have expected to have seen work commencing are still idle. Could this be a capacity issue?

    There was definitely reports of capacity issues between Crossrail and a.n.other project that I can't remember. With crossrail still not finished that could stil be the case.
    Crossrail is basically required to keep TfL solvent.

    It should also free up a little bit of capacity on the GWML into Paddington (high level) - and therefore the bakerloo/central - as passengers from the West can take trains direct into central London.

    Without it Crossrail 2 doesn’t make sense and HS2 passengers become harder to clear too, but there’s not a direct link.

    Crossrail will open it’s just a question of when. Trains have to be safe and reliable and it’s the integration testing and software performance that is hard to predict, and needs exhaustive proofing.
    What's your best guess opening date eg to Bond St and points further East?
    2021
    tx
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    stodge said:

    DavidL said:

    Surprisingly today's economic data is pretty good with GDP, manufacturing, construction and trade all better than expected:

    https://www.forexfactory.com/

    Strange how we've not been treated to multiple tweets about it.

    :wink:

    The construction figures state that output over the 3 months fell by 0.8%. Such a small decline in the official figures suggests a genuine boom going by historical precedents.
    A lot of building work going on around London but I just have a perception the pace has slackened and some sites I would have expected to have seen work commencing are still idle. Could this be a capacity issue?

    There was definitely reports of capacity issues between Crossrail and a.n.other project that I can't remember. With crossrail still not finished that could stil be the case.
    Crossrail is basically required to keep TfL solvent.

    It should also free up a little bit of capacity on the GWML into Paddington (high level) - and therefore the bakerloo/central - as passengers from the West can take trains direct into central London.

    Without it Crossrail 2 doesn’t make sense and HS2 passengers become harder to clear too, but there’s not a direct link.

    Crossrail will open it’s just a question of when. Trains have to be safe and reliable and it’s the integration testing and software performance that is hard to predict, and needs exhaustive proofing.
    What's your best guess opening date eg to Bond St and points further East?
    My post wasn't an attack on Crossrail more the fact it isn't finished is probably a reason why some other projects are delayed..

    Personally I have zero problems with proper infrastructure projects most just need decent PR.
    ha I was asking as a user!!
  • DavidL said:


    I am a leaver but this is pretty serious. Has Boris lied to the House of Commons about negotiations with the EU? It seems obvious that he has. That is not a trivial matter. In my view Blair really should have gone to jail for his lies about WMD. Why should Boris be different?

    Jail them both, unite the nation
    I'm really looking forward to the Brexit show trials
  • So, logically speaking that means he has received some proposals?

    Wasn't it just the WA with stuff crossed out?
    Could be
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    eek said:

    Dutch minister weighs in with no extension without GE/referendum

    Question - which one of those would finish this off once and for all.

    And if a referendum exactly what should the leave option be (May's deal or No Deal).
    I dont think theres a majority to hold parliament together long enough for a referendum to occur, a GE would come first, you can't have a caretaker in place for a year with both main parties sidelined, or a caretaker with a rainbow cabinet, it would be madness.
    It has to be GE
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Dutch minister weighs in with no extension without GE/referendum

    It seems to me that the EU will have to decide whether to offer/accept an unconditional extension. I don't think the Benn Bill obliges the prime minister to accept conditions. Or at least the imposition of conditions moves things into a very grey area.
  • Dutch minister weighs in with no extension without GE/referendum

    Under the Benn Bill there would be a vote in the Commons on whether to accept the extension offered by the EU, so it would be for the Commons to decide between that and no deal.
    It won't be a condition of offer, they are indicating no offer without one in place first
    And if it were, bizarrely, a condition that a GE is called, the Tories would do an opposition and vote down the FTPA demand for one and hence scupper the extension
    I just don't see how that detail prevents an extension. We heard similar before the previous extension.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    philiph said:

    glw said:

    isam said:

    Superb piece Casino although it’s another piece by a Remainer. 🤣

    Glad to see you responding to criticism 👍🏻

    Although the thrust of the criticism was that the articles were all pro Remain, not necessarily that they were always written by Remain voters. This article is not pro Leave
    I campaigned for Leave, voted Leave and still advocate Leave. I am a Leaver. Further this article describes a course of action which would still result in us Leaving.

    So that’s incorrect.
    We've reached the point where if you favour leaving with ANY sort of deal you are no longer a real leaver. It's nuts, but that's where we are.
    An argument for leaving with no deal is that you have a blank canvas from which it may be easier to move to EFTA, EEA. WTO, Singapore sur la mer or other situation with less complications than the restrictions and requirements of the pre negotiated deal that wasn't structured for future unknown developments.
    I knew at some point Leavers would go full Year Zero... :(
  • Chris said:

    Dutch minister weighs in with no extension without GE/referendum

    It seems to me that the EU will have to decide whether to offer/accept an unconditional extension. I don't think the Benn Bill obliges the prime minister to accept conditions. Or at least the imposition of conditions moves things into a very grey area.
    The Benn Bill mandates that an extension must be accepted, unless a vote to refuse (and thereby accept no deal) is won in the Commons.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Further to my discussions with others yesterday re Chuka and Westminster. Worth noting for betting purposes that all of Jo's new LDs will have to face 'he/she sat in two stints as an independent and for 3 parties in the space of 6 months, how can you trust them?'
    That will sway some votes, no doubt.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,216
    eek said:

    Dutch minister weighs in with no extension without GE/referendum

    Question - which one of those would finish this off once and for all.

    And if a referendum exactly what should the leave option be (May's deal or No Deal).
    We live in a parliamentary democracy so GE first up.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited September 2019
    viewcode said:

    philiph said:

    glw said:

    isam said:

    Superb piece Casino although it’s another piece by a Remainer. 🤣

    Glad to see you responding to criticism 👍🏻

    Although the thrust of the criticism was that the articles were all pro Remain, not necessarily that they were always written by Remain voters. This article is not pro Leave
    I campaigned for Leave, voted Leave and still advocate Leave. I am a Leaver. Further this article describes a course of action which would still result in us Leaving.

    So that’s incorrect.
    We've reached the point where if you favour leaving with ANY sort of deal you are no longer a real leaver. It's nuts, but that's where we are.
    An argument for leaving with no deal is that you have a blank canvas from which it may be easier to move to EFTA, EEA. WTO, Singapore sur la mer or other situation with less complications than the restrictions and requirements of the pre negotiated deal that wasn't structured for future unknown developments.
    I knew at some point Leavers would go full Year Zero... :(
    I'm not a leaver.

    The best solution is in the EU, full fat version, Euro and everything else.

    I happen to think revoke to the position we were in before is utterly stupid, as it continues all the conditions that caused us to get to where we are without addressing issues. If we continue in a half in half out semi-detached membership in an EU that will rightly follow the needs of the harmonised Euro block, we are asking for more discontent on a larger scale later.

    I was only trying to give a rationale that someone may use to justify no deal as useful.
  • That makes October GE a very obvious lay to me now.

    No time left to call one after tonight and all opposition parties committed to voting down a GE.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    LV might be a dirty blueshirt shit but he's a class act compared to BJ.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    philiph said:

    viewcode said:

    philiph said:

    glw said:

    isam said:

    Superb piece Casino although it’s another piece by a Remainer. 🤣

    Glad to see you responding to criticism 👍🏻

    Although the thrust of the criticism was that the articles were all pro Remain, not necessarily that they were always written by Remain voters. This article is not pro Leave
    I campaigned for Leave, voted Leave and still advocate Leave. I am a Leaver. Further this article describes a course of action which would still result in us Leaving.

    So that’s incorrect.
    We've reached the point where if you favour leaving with ANY sort of deal you are no longer a real leaver. It's nuts, but that's where we are.
    An argument for leaving with no deal is that you have a blank canvas from which it may be easier to move to EFTA, EEA. WTO, Singapore sur la mer or other situation with less complications than the restrictions and requirements of the pre negotiated deal that wasn't structured for future unknown developments.
    I knew at some point Leavers would go full Year Zero... :(
    I'm not a leaver.

    The best solution is in the EU, full fat version, Euro and everything else.

    I happen to think revoke to the position we were in before is utterly stupid, as it continues all the conditions that caused us to get to where we are without addressing issues. If we continue in a half in half out semi-detached membership in an EU that will rightly follow the needs of the harmonised Euro block, we are asking for more discontent on a larger scale later.

    I was only trying to give a rationale that someone may use to justify no deal as useful.
    Ah I see, thank you.
  • Chris said:

    Dutch minister weighs in with no extension without GE/referendum

    It seems to me that the EU will have to decide whether to offer/accept an unconditional extension. I don't think the Benn Bill obliges the prime minister to accept conditions. Or at least the imposition of conditions moves things into a very grey area.
    I suspect by then it'll be clear enough an election's on the way, though I guess there could be some choreography issues between the opposition's "no election called before an extension" and the EU's apparent "no extension before an election called". Given both those parties aren't keen on a No Deal, I'd expect those issues to be resolved.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    So, Parliament prorogued till October 14 then. Boris to tour the country in pre-non-election mode.
    Don't waste this time.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    Chris said:

    Dutch minister weighs in with no extension without GE/referendum

    It seems to me that the EU will have to decide whether to offer/accept an unconditional extension. I don't think the Benn Bill obliges the prime minister to accept conditions. Or at least the imposition of conditions moves things into a very grey area.
    I suspect by then it'll be clear enough an election's on the way, though I guess there could be some choreography issues between the opposition's "no election called before an extension" and the EU's apparent "no extension before an election called". Given both those parties aren't keen on a No Deal, I'd expect those issues to be resolved.
    The government can be VoNCed after the 19th Oct. Who becomes caretaker PM will not be moot as election will also be called at the same time. Corbyn, at best, will be a minority PM for 5 weeks. LDs can say in the campaign that they will not be in a coalition with Labour [ or anyone else ]
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    I’ve been in Antarctica for three and a half years. What’s happened? Did I miss anything interesting?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Dura_Ace said:

    LV might be a dirty blueshirt shit but he's a class act compared to BJ.
    We have come to the point whereby stating the bleedin' obvious elevates the speaker to seer-like status vs those around him.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Byronic said:

    I’ve been in Antarctica for three and a half years. What’s happened? Did I miss anything interesting?

    All the ice caps melted due to climate change.

    Nothing else.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    edited September 2019

    Chris said:

    Dutch minister weighs in with no extension without GE/referendum

    It seems to me that the EU will have to decide whether to offer/accept an unconditional extension. I don't think the Benn Bill obliges the prime minister to accept conditions. Or at least the imposition of conditions moves things into a very grey area.
    The Benn Bill mandates that an extension must be accepted, unless a vote to refuse (and thereby accept no deal) is won in the Commons.
    I just think that if the government were looking for a way around the law, it could say that it accepted the offer of an extension, but didn't accept the conditions attached to it. In that case the EU and/or the UK courts would have a decision to make.
  • Byronic said:

    I’ve been in Antarctica for three and a half years. What’s happened? Did I miss anything interesting?

    Boris has had his arse handed to him by the Irish Prime Minister.
  • philiph said:

    viewcode said:

    philiph said:

    glw said:

    isam said:

    Superb piece Casino although it’s another piece by a Remainer. 🤣

    Glad to see you responding to criticism 👍🏻

    Although the thrust of the criticism was that the articles were all pro Remain, not necessarily that they were always written by Remain voters. This article is not pro Leave
    I campaigned for Leave, voted Leave and still advocate Leave. I am a Leaver. Further this article describes a course of action which would still result in us Leaving.

    So that’s incorrect.
    We've reached the point where if you favour leaving with ANY sort of deal you are no longer a real leaver. It's nuts, but that's where we are.
    An argument for leaving with no deal is that you have a blank canvas from which it may be easier to move to EFTA, EEA. WTO, Singapore sur la mer or other situation with less complications than the restrictions and requirements of the pre negotiated deal that wasn't structured for future unknown developments.
    I knew at some point Leavers would go full Year Zero... :(
    I'm not a leaver.

    The best solution is in the EU, full fat version, Euro and everything else.

    I happen to think revoke to the position we were in before is utterly stupid, as it continues all the conditions that caused us to get to where we are without addressing issues. If we continue in a half in half out semi-detached membership in an EU that will rightly follow the needs of the harmonised Euro block, we are asking for more discontent on a larger scale later.

    I was only trying to give a rationale that someone may use to justify no deal as useful.
    Revoke and address the 'left behind' issues would work.
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