There will be EU born people who are UK citizens, and UK born people who are no longer UK citizens.
So comparing EU born : UK born or EU citizens;UK citizens is better than EU born: UK citizens, if you want to paint a fair picture that is.
In any case, who cares? I don't get why people moving around is such a big problem. I've never seen anybody say that folk shouldn't move from Morecambe to Medway, but it's inexplicably popular to say that people shouldn't move from Warsaw to Walsall. What's the difference?
LOL glad to see the "Boris should write two letters" idea is gaining traction, I suggested it last week originally as a joke but it seems the most logical cause now.
Under royal prerogative the government has the right to send letters if it wants to do so. I don't see how the government honouring the letter of the law while sending a supplementary letter under prerogative is illegal. Unless of course the law restricted prerogative - but if it did then the bill would have needed Queen's Consent.
Free movement is reciprocal and millions of British people take advantage of it.
If it were anywhere near reciprocated, there would never have been a referendum. The fact it isn’t is the reason there was a referendum that Leave won.
Which EU countries are we not allowed to move to and work in?
Not the killer question you think it is I’m afraid. I’m saying that British people don’t take up the option of free movement on the scale that other EU citizens do to come here, not that the option isn’t there. If they did, there wouldn’t have been a referendum.
Very surprised you think leavers care at all about the maybe 1.2 million UK citizens living elsewhere in the EU, and that if there were more of us (how many more do you think it would take?) that would persuade them to be remainers. Why?
I just answered some of that in a different response to your earlier question.
I think a ratio of 2:1 would be more acceptable to people at a guess. I think it would make a difference because the UK would feel more European, Leave voters would know people who emigrated to work and made a better life etc The status quo for poor people is that a load of people from countries they’ve never heard of are suddenly a big part of their lives in a negative way. The offer of a job in Lithuania or Bulgaria isn’t enticing to them, so why would they have a positive view of EU membership?
How much do you think that Leavers' views on immigration were, er, coloured by the very visible non-EU immigration of the type that you previously suggested was responsible for white flight in some areas of London?
LOL glad to see the "Boris should write two letters" idea is gaining traction, I suggested it last week originally as a joke but it seems the most logical cause now.
Under royal prerogative the government has the right to send letters if it wants to do so. I don't see how the government honouring the letter of the law while sending a supplementary letter under prerogative is illegal. Unless of course the law restricted prerogative - but if it did then the bill would have needed Queen's Consent.
It's an expensive gamble if you are wrong. I can't see JRM losing his £150m as part of the multi-billion pound settlement going down well with him...
I don't see how the government honouring the letter of the law while sending a supplementary letter under prerogative is illegal.
I'm guessing you are not now nor were you ever a Supreme Court judge so it is perhaps not surprising that you are unable to see whether something relatively complex is legal or illegal.
I think the WDA was acceptable to a majority of MPs. If we leave, something very similar to it will be required.
The problem was thst it led to a blind Brexit. The final deal and shape of our future relationship depended on the PM (or next PM after May) and neither the Labour Party nor the ERG trusted that they'd get their sort of deal. That's why they voted against the WDA.
The problem will remain until there is a united overnment with a substantial majority. Even a referendum that votes for the WDA doesn't solve the problem because it leaves open the nature of our future relationship. The PD is malleable.
If Boris wins a majority the Withdrawal Agreement will likely pass albeit with a NI only backstop until a technical solution for the Irish border is found as suggested last night
Just out of interest, what was your opinion on the NI only backstop back when Theresa May was saying that it could never be accepted by any UK PM?
And since this was the EU’s solution, with the full UK backstop May’s preference, why would he be able to pass the former but not the latter? The current deal does not preclude switching to the latter subsequently, so actually provides more flexibility for the UK.
I did not have a big problem with it until a technical solution for the Irish border was found, that was more Philip Thompson
Indeed and I object to it whether NI only or UK wide. Although if it were NI wide with Stormont having the right to unilaterally exit I'd have no problem - as indeed if it was UK wide with Westminster having the right to unilaterally exit I'd also have no problem.
The FTPA is really a shoddy piece of legislation that seriously messed up our constitutional norms more than I think anyone could have possibly considered at the time. The unintended consequences of what looked like an insignificant thing have been huge.
The FTPA is having exactly the effect for which it was designed. When we vote for our MPs it is now for a five year term, and calling the GE is no longer the current prime minister's privilege. Most countries do have some kind of a fixed term, some with the ability to call a GE under special circumstances eg Germany 2005, and some with no possibility for new-elections eg the USA in 1974 had a new President who had not even been on the Ticket as VP two year earlier.
Last week the PM wanted a new election, just because he is fed up with the current make up of parliament. Parliament said no. That is a good thing.
Superb piece Casino although it’s another piece by a Remainer. 🤣
Glad to see you responding to criticism 👍🏻
Although the thrust of the criticism was that the articles were all pro Remain, not necessarily that they were always written by Remain voters. This article is not pro Leave
I campaigned for Leave, voted Leave and still advocate Leave. I am a Leaver. Further this article describes a course of action which would still result in us Leaving.
So that’s incorrect.
Fail the purity test. Diehard remainer!!
This is the biggest problem this country faces. On both sides.
Quite frankly, it pisses me off. It is dogmatic, unthinking and childish.
LOL glad to see the "Boris should write two letters" idea is gaining traction, I suggested it last week originally as a joke but it seems the most logical cause now.
Under royal prerogative the government has the right to send letters if it wants to do so. I don't see how the government honouring the letter of the law while sending a supplementary letter under prerogative is illegal. Unless of course the law restricted prerogative - but if it did then the bill would have needed Queen's Consent.
The European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 6) Bill says the PM "must seek to obtain" an extension by sending the specified letter. I guess it might be argued that if he sent such an accompanying letter, then he wouldn't be seeking to obtain an extension.
LOL glad to see the "Boris should write two letters" idea is gaining traction, I suggested it last week originally as a joke but it seems the most logical cause now.
Under royal prerogative the government has the right to send letters if it wants to do so. I don't see how the government honouring the letter of the law while sending a supplementary letter under prerogative is illegal. Unless of course the law restricted prerogative - but if it did then the bill would have needed Queen's Consent.
We shouldn't completely rule out the possibility that the judge knows something about the law. The judging exams are known for their rigour.
Interesting article- given it’s from a Leave supporter it makes an interesting change from the NYT’s usual take.
The two sides in the debate are coming to loathe each other. For the “Leave” side (which is my side), our national system of democracy is at stake: For the first time since Britain became a truly democratic country, the political and cultural establishment is refusing under a variety of pretexts to obey a legal popular vote. On the “Remain” side, it seems to have become less about loving the European Union than detesting those who are against it, seen as deplorables who must not be allowed to win.
So “parliamentary sovereignty” has been pitted against “popular sovereignty,” in this case championed by the Johnson government. It is not yet clear how our constitution will cope with this fight between two conceptions of democracy. Who will have the final say — the people or the establishment?
So Leavers love democracy, and Remainers are snobs. If this is what passes for nuanced analysis on the Leave side, maybe they really are as dumb as Remainers apparently think they are.
A perfect illustration of what the article was saying.
The more extreme Remainers have spent years telling themselves, and virtue signalling to others, how considerate and empathetic to people less fortunate than themselves they are, whilst the type of people who voted Leave played the role of bad guy in their minds. This seems to make it impossible for them to realise that they are, or could even be capable of being, the villains of the piece now
I accept both sides have made mistakes . However the polarization and hardening of opinion on the Remain side has been forced by the hijacking of the vote to no deal by the ERG .
We were promised an orderly exit with a deal . As a Remainer I’m willing to accept that but I’ll be damned if I’m going to accept no deal . There is no mandate for that .
Some have been so forced. As an anti no dealer myself I didnt start out seeking to remain.
But lets not kid ourselves that the hardening is purely in response to others. A large number fought tooth and nail from the start, seeking delay, and clearly dont want to accept an exit that is orderly as that was opposed too.
So wouldn’t the bigger man resist that and argue courageously and vociferously for a compromise?
LOL glad to see the "Boris should write two letters" idea is gaining traction, I suggested it last week originally as a joke but it seems the most logical cause now.
Waaaaay back I mused that the opposition might try and stop Brexit with a private members bill. So it seems that things that start off not that seriously quickly gain currency.
I saw 750k uk emigrants to 3.7m EU in the UK, so thought 1 in 5
There wouldn’t have been a referendum to lose if immigration was lower.
If it were a good option for poor British citizens to move to EU countries and improve their lives then they wouldn’t have voted to close that option, is the point I’m trying to make. The fact is that they see FOM as a one way street not a reciprocal exchange.
OK right now I see what you are saying.
Just for a different perspective here in Germany (which also has a very ratio of immigrants to emigrants under FoM, and similar numbers in terms of % of population to UK) polling seems to show an even more overwhelming majority of Germans think that Freedom of Movement is a positive thing for Germany, than would vote to stay in the EU if they had a referendum! So obviously more to it than numbers and ratios.
Maybe Germans, rightly or wrongly, have a guilt complex that British, rightly or wrongly, don’t? I don’t know
If as Casino suggests Parliament has to choose a leader to take the UK through these troubled waters that person would need several specific qualifications. No personal ambition the respect of most of the house be an international statesperson and have the respect of the EU. In an ideal world they would also be reasonably neutral between Leave and Remain to reflect the ambivalence in the country. The person best able to fit that bill is Theresa May.
Take away the shackles of all the crap she was obliged to spout by the ERG and you have a decent reasonably fair mided human being. And in neutral corner a million miles more respected than Johnson and Corbyn put together
She doesn’t (and will never have) the people skills to do it.
Would make an interesting season finale in a Netflix series but not in real life.
I don't see how the government honouring the letter of the law while sending a supplementary letter under prerogative is illegal.
I'm guessing you are not now nor were you ever a Supreme Court judge so it is perhaps not surprising that you are unable to see whether something relatively complex is legal or illegal.
I think you misunderstood my point of course I am not a lawyer but there seem to me to be two logical scenarios:
Scenario 1: I can understand how the law could make this illegal, but that would have required Queen's Consent.
Scenario 2: I can understand how Queen's Consent was not needed because prerogative wasn't affected, which would mean the law should not make this illegal.
Saying the law changed what could be done under prerogative but didn't need Queen's Consent is a bit "cake and eat it". Since Speaker Bercow ruled Queen's Consent wasn't required we should surely be in scenario 2.
I saw 750k uk emigrants to 3.7m EU in the UK, so thought 1 in 5
There wouldn’t have been a referendum to lose if immigration was lower.
If it were a good option for poor British citizens to move to EU countries and improve their lives then they wouldn’t have voted to close that option, is the point I’m trying to make. The fact is that they see FOM as a one way street not a reciprocal exchange.
OK right now I see what you are saying.
Just for a different perspective here in Germany (which also has a very ratio of immigrants to emigrants under FoM, and similar numbers in terms of % of population to UK) polling seems to show an even more overwhelming majority of Germans think that Freedom of Movement is a positive thing for Germany, than would vote to stay in the EU if they had a referendum! So obviously more to it than numbers and ratios.
Maybe Germans, rightly or wrongly, have a guilt complex that British, rightly or wrongly, don’t? I don’t know
I think it's clearer in Germany that immigrants are making an effort to get on as you have to learn the language to stay there (and for a lot of people the language isn't easy).
Superb piece Casino although it’s another piece by a Remainer. 🤣
Glad to see you responding to criticism 👍🏻
Although the thrust of the criticism was that the articles were all pro Remain, not necessarily that they were always written by Remain voters. This article is not pro Leave
I campaigned for Leave, voted Leave and still advocate Leave. I am a Leaver. Further this article describes a course of action which would still result in us Leaving.
So that’s incorrect.
Fail the purity test. Diehard remainer!!
This is the biggest problem this country faces. On both sides.
Quite frankly, it pisses me off. It is dogmatic, unthinking and childish.
Oh get over yourself, I never said anything about you!
I don't see how the government honouring the letter of the law while sending a supplementary letter under prerogative is illegal.
I'm guessing you are not now nor were you ever a Supreme Court judge so it is perhaps not surprising that you are unable to see whether something relatively complex is legal or illegal.
I think you misunderstood my point of course I am not a lawyer but there seem to me to be two logical scenarios:
Scenario 1: I can understand how the law could make this illegal, but that would have required Queen's Consent.
Scenario 2: I can understand how Queen's Consent was not needed because prerogative wasn't affected, which would mean the law should not make this illegal.
Saying the law changed what could be done under prerogative but didn't need Queen's Consent is a bit "cake and eat it". Since Speaker Bercow ruled Queen's Consent wasn't required we should surely be in scenario 2.
I gave up at "I'm not a lawyer". Leaving illegally without a deal will cost any responsible Billions in damages. I think I would want someone who was a lawyer explaining the options before taking that risk.
It’s perfectly logical. In a very difficult situation you can follow the best and cleverest course possible, yet still find this isn’t good enough, as things are so dire.
That’s not a bad summary of what BDSM* have done. And they haven’t failed entirely, yet
*Boris, Dominic, Sajid & Michael - I get bored of writing their names
BDSM: Boris, Dominic, Sajid & Michael. Now that really is sadomaochism.
This is the biggest problem this country faces. On both sides.
Quite frankly, it pisses me off. It is dogmatic, unthinking and childish.
I think the biggest problems are the misconceptions and misunderstandings surrounding how our political system works. We could all do with some classics in Civics or perhaps a series of 15-minute talks on democracy and how it works in the UK political system.
The role of MPs is clearly badly understood, if at all. Are they representatives, are they delegates? No one seems to know but everyone has their assumptions.
Is a Referendum the same as an election? I think it's highly unlikely we will have another referendum on a big national issue in the next 50 years - there's a place for them in the resolution of local issues but it's the abdication of responsibility and authority by MPs that has led us down this path.
I think there remains a strong fundamental belief in democracy in this country - it's just that no one quite knows what it is and how it works.
I'm not sure about a written constitution but we could update and improve the Bill of Rights and make it our constitutional document for the 21st Century.
LOL glad to see the "Boris should write two letters" idea is gaining traction, I suggested it last week originally as a joke but it seems the most logical cause now.
Under royal prerogative the government has the right to send letters if it wants to do so. I don't see how the government honouring the letter of the law while sending a supplementary letter under prerogative is illegal. Unless of course the law restricted prerogative - but if it did then the bill would have needed Queen's Consent.
The European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 6) Bill says the PM "must seek to obtain" an extension by sending the specified letter. I guess it might be argued that if he sent such an accompanying letter, then he wouldn't be seeking to obtain an extension.
But I assume it says nothing about his actions, proposals and assessment of the U.K. position during contact with EU leaders and negotiating teams in the time preceding the date of the letter, or after that date.
It would be a clear option to set a narrative in advance of the letter suit his own agenda.
How many of the EU citizens who live in the UK are Irish? A lot of people wouldn't consider them to be "foreigners" although of course they are really.
The idea Hunt is going to become PM is laughable, Labour and the SNP and LDs and DUP would vote against him and the Withdrawal Agreement, which is not going to pass regardless in his current form as it failed 3 times before. The Tories are also not going to vote for Hunt over Boris after he lost the Tory MPs voteand was heavily defeated in the Tory membership vote.
No, the only realistic option for a caretaker PM is Ken Clarke. The Tory rebels and LDs would vote down a Corbyn Premiership and the Tory rebels would also likely vote down any other Labour PM, only Clarke could get Labour LD, SNP and Tory anti No Deal rebel support to extend until a November general election, which the French have said they would allow extension for.
Boris would of course lead the Tories in opposition while Corbyn would have to face the risk of Labour Leavers seeing him put a Tory in yo block Brexit many might then go to Boris on the basis if Corbyn is willing to prop up a Tory I may as well vote for a Tory who respects my Leave vote
"LDs would vote down a Corbyn Premiership " - very soon you will have to eat those words and you will be reminded.
I don’t think so. I think HYUFD would be very happy to be wrong on this one. It would help the Tories’ electoral prospects enormously
The message the LDs support the Labour position - in any way - will cost them some of their traditional votes. Not their local election votes but there extra GE votes. There is little that has happened in the last week that Boris's team will find overly unhelpful.
Indeed, posters of Swinson in Corbyn's pocket would go up in Tory Remain seats and Swinson will not do it therefore
There will be EU born people who are UK citizens, and UK born people who are no longer UK citizens.
So comparing EU born : UK born or EU citizens;UK citizens is better than EU born: UK citizens, if you want to paint a fair picture that is.
In any case, who cares? I don't get why people moving around is such a big problem. I've never seen anybody say that folk shouldn't move from Morecambe to Medway, but it's inexplicably popular to say that people shouldn't move from Warsaw to Walsall. What's the difference?
Fairly obviously language and culture. Immigration control is not inexplicable, for most countries that are popular to live in some form of it is essential.
I think immigration on balance has been positive but that it would be pretty delusional to think there arent any downsides to immigration or believing immigration control isnt needed.
Isam is perfectly entitled to think its a problem and given the numbers who agree the country has to care about it. That doesnt mean we cant ask for fairly balanced numbers when discussing it.
Superb piece Casino although it’s another piece by a Remainer. 🤣
Glad to see you responding to criticism 👍🏻
Although the thrust of the criticism was that the articles were all pro Remain, not necessarily that they were always written by Remain voters. This article is not pro Leave
I campaigned for Leave, voted Leave and still advocate Leave. I am a Leaver. Further this article describes a course of action which would still result in us Leaving.
So that’s incorrect.
I never said you weren’t a leaver, so the first 15 words there are unnecessary.
It describes a course of action that results in us leaving, of course. That doesn’t make it pro or anti in my book. None of this was a criticism of you, get to work.
Your post suggested my thread was somehow anti-Leave, and that it had a Remain flavour. I take exception to that.
You’ve responded partly magnanimously but also laced it with tetchiness.
I haven’t written many thread headers for this site but you’ll see all of them I have written have been based on interesting betting tips with potential scenarios, and I enjoy longshots. I like to do that to share the insights and generate a bit of debate out on outcomes.
I’d have thought you’d appreciate that as an established punter.
Mr. Stodge, I partly agree but I think there may well be a drive for another referendum.
Not only is that perhaps the only way for pro-EU types to try and sustainably overturn the previous result, they may have a much better shot at winning it than a General Election.
Why on earth does this exclude Ireland? There are many British Citizens living in Ireland, and Irish living in the UK who are effected just as much as with any other EU Country.
Mr. Stodge, I partly agree but I think there may well be a drive for another referendum.
Not only is that perhaps the only way for pro-EU types to try and sustainably overturn the previous result, they may have a much better shot at winning it than a General Election.
A second referendum also has the benefit of knowing what type of leave really is on offer. One of the biggest problems at the moment is the friction between "Brexit is the will of the people" and "this is not the type of Brexit we voted for"
Why on earth does this exclude Ireland? There are many British Citizens living in Ireland, and Irish living in the UK who are effected just as much as with any other EU Country.
-0.2 in Q2 and 0.0 in the 3 months to July but +0.3 in July. Makes a further contraction in Q3 unlikely if not impossible.
The latest GDP stats are actually surprisingly good.
I think our figures are being so distorted by Brexit (stock building Q1, winding down of stocks in Q2, utter bewilderment in Q3) at the moment that it is very hard to identify a clear underlying trend. Our economy is slowing but whether it is being as hard hit as the EZ by the global slowdown is hard to say. Javid's significant cash injection means growth really ought to pick up a tad next year but if Parliament is still arsing about who knows?
Strange how we've not been treated to multiple tweets about it.
Interesting, any thoughts on reducing equities weighting in a portfolio at the moment? Getting nervous personally but guess thats not a good signal. Just feels like a very long time since last recession and crash, plus US China trade war, Brexit and maybe EU US trade war to come as well. On flip side FTSE seems value compared to other global indices.
Superb piece Casino although it’s another piece by a Remainer. 🤣
Glad to see you responding to criticism 👍🏻
Although the thrust of the criticism was that the articles were all pro Remain, not necessarily that they were always written by Remain voters. This article is not pro Leave
I campaigned for Leave, voted Leave and still advocate Leave. I am a Leaver. Further this article describes a course of action which would still result in us Leaving.
TBH, that wasn't apparent on reading your interesting thread, which is to your credit. Nonetheless, in discussion downthread it eventually gave rise to the usual "all Leavers are numpties" postings on here from the usual suspects.
Yes I agree, Hunt does seem to have an outside chance much better than 66/1. Apart from the scenario you paint, there is also the possibility that Johnson could face a challenge as leader.
This is the biggest problem this country faces. On both sides.
Quite frankly, it pisses me off. It is dogmatic, unthinking and childish.
I think the biggest problems are the misconceptions and misunderstandings surrounding how our political system works. We could all do with some classics in Civics or perhaps a series of 15-minute talks on democracy and how it works in the UK political system.
The role of MPs is clearly badly understood, if at all. Are they representatives, are they delegates? No one seems to know but everyone has their assumptions.
Is a Referendum the same as an election? I think it's highly unlikely we will have another referendum on a big national issue in the next 50 years - there's a place for them in the resolution of local issues but it's the abdication of responsibility and authority by MPs that has led us down this path.
I think there remains a strong fundamental belief in democracy in this country - it's just that no one quite knows what it is and how it works.
I'm not sure about a written constitution but we could update and improve the Bill of Rights and make it our constitutional document for the 21st Century.
The problems we face are not from the referendum itself but because David Cameron failed to sort things out in advance, there could be no consensus on what the result actually meant. The referendum was not Remain or Leave, but Remain or Leave And Then Do Something Else, but that "something else" was never defined and still is up for grabs.
Mr. Stodge, I partly agree but I think there may well be a drive for another referendum.
Not only is that perhaps the only way for pro-EU types to try and sustainably overturn the previous result, they may have a much better shot at winning it than a General Election.
A second referendum also has the benefit of knowing what type of leave really is on offer. One of the biggest problems at the moment is the friction between "Brexit is the will of the people" and "this is not the type of Brexit we voted for"
This is a "problem" only in the eyes of remainers who are using it to de-legitimise the result ofthe first referendum.
If, by using this or other procedural devices, 'remain' succeeds in overturning the referendum (in which i voted for 'remain', by the way) a terrible Pandora's box will have been opened which in due course will de-legitimise UK politics and the electoral process. People will say "if you wont abide by my majority vote, then why should i abide by yours?".
Why on earth does this exclude Ireland? There are many British Citizens living in Ireland, and Irish living in the UK who are effected just as much as with any other EU Country.
Because the Common Travel Area predates FOM by over half a century and is unaffected by Brexit.
Strange how we've not been treated to multiple tweets about it.
The construction figures state that output over the 3 months fell by 0.8%. Such a small decline in the official figures suggests a genuine boom going by historical precedents.
It has no legal force but it could be politically significant
I think the gentleman concerned is operating on the wish is father to the thought principle and trying to make a name for himself on Twitter. Not a career choice I would advocate but hey ho.
He’s a pretty sensible and thoughtful lawyer. Used to blog as JackofKent
Ah! Heard of him some years ago I believe Thank you
-0.2 in Q2 and 0.0 in the 3 months to July but +0.3 in July. Makes a further contraction in Q3 unlikely if not impossible.
The latest GDP stats are actually surprisingly good.
I think our figures are being so distorted by Brexit (stock building Q1, winding down of stocks in Q2, utter bewilderment in Q3) at the moment that it is very hard to identify a clear underlying trend. Our economy is slowing but whether it is being as hard hit as the EZ by the global slowdown is hard to say. Javid's significant cash injection means growth really ought to pick up a tad next year but if Parliament is still arsing about who knows?
We're in a consumption bubble - it will end at some point.
But quite a bit of the construction spending seems to be based on it not ending.
There were reports from the moment that the Remainers' bill was published that No 10 was delighted with what they considered to be the failings in its wording. If Johnson has indeed identified a loophole, would you really expect him to share it with the world at this point?
Superb piece Casino although it’s another piece by a Remainer. 🤣
Glad to see you responding to criticism 👍🏻
Although the thrust of the criticism was that the articles were all pro Remain, not necessarily that they were always written by Remain voters. This article is not pro Leave
I campaigned for Leave, voted Leave and still advocate Leave. I am a Leaver. Further this article describes a course of action which would still result in us Leaving.
So that’s incorrect.
I never said you weren’t a leaver, so the first 15 words there are unnecessary.
It describes a course of action that results in us leaving, of course. That doesn’t make it pro or anti in my book. None of this was a criticism of you, get to work.
Your post suggested my thread was somehow anti-Leave, and that it had a Remain flavour. I take exception to that.
You’ve responded partly magnanimously but also laced it with tetchiness.
I haven’t written many thread headers for this site but you’ll see all of them I have written have been based on interesting betting tips with potential scenarios, and I enjoy longshots. I like to do that to share the insights and generate a bit of debate out on outcomes.
I’d have thought you’d appreciate that as an established punter.
I just thought it was a neutral article about politics and betting, and I quite liked reading it. I replied to Eagles because he tried to make out it was an example of the sites headers not being as remain biased as they are, and I thought a leaver writing neutrally doesn’t redress the balance.
Fairly obviously. Negotiation via press is seldom a good move, announcing it at a joint press conference would be hmmmm interesting
If you had such plans surely you would have discussed or given them to the Irish before claiming to have them
Boris has no plan beyond bluster and piffle...
Or, ya know, discuss them in the meeting they are about to have and let Leo take them to his EU comrades for a sniff. The press are quite pathetic in their demand to know everything before its time. If there are no proposals then Varadkar can say after 'he proposed nothing at all'
Fairly obviously. Negotiation via press is seldom a good move, announcing it at a joint press conference would be hmmmm interesting
Leo Varadkar said that Ireland and the EU haven't been given any proposals from Johnson.
I am a leaver but this is pretty serious. Has Boris lied to the House of Commons about negotiations with the EU? It seems obvious that he has. That is not a trivial matter. In my view Blair really should have gone to jail for his lies about WMD. Why should Boris be different?
Superb piece Casino although it’s another piece by a Remainer. 🤣
Glad to see you responding to criticism 👍🏻
Although the thrust of the criticism was that the articles were all pro Remain, not necessarily that they were always written by Remain voters. This article is not pro Leave
I campaigned for Leave, voted Leave and still advocate Leave. I am a Leaver. Further this article describes a course of action which would still result in us Leaving.
TBH, that wasn't apparent on reading your interesting thread, which is to your credit. Nonetheless, in discussion downthread it eventually gave rise to the usual "all Leavers are numpties" postings on here from the usual suspects.
Yes I agree, Hunt does seem to have an outside chance much better than 66/1. Apart from the scenario you paint, there is also the possibility that Johnson could face a challenge as leader.
I know. It’s very frustrating.
I was neither looking to give succour nor encouragement to Revokers, not looking to draw fire from clean Leavers but that’s always a bit of a risk.
To be fair, most people on this site have been very generous about it, which is probably more than I deserve!
Fairly obviously. Negotiation via press is seldom a good move, announcing it at a joint press conference would be hmmmm interesting
If you had such plans surely you would have discussed or given them to the Irish before claiming to have them
Boris has no plan beyond bluster and piffle...
Or, ya know, discuss them in the meeting they are about to have and let Leo take them to his EU comrades for a sniff. The press are quite pathetic in their demand to know everything before its time. If there are no proposals then Varadkar can say after 'he proposed nothing at all'
Sorry I thought the press conference was after the meeting. WTF are they doing have a press conference before the meeting?
Fairly obviously. Negotiation via press is seldom a good move, announcing it at a joint press conference would be hmmmm interesting
Leo Varadkar said that Ireland and the EU haven't been given any proposals from Johnson.
I am a leaver but this is pretty serious. Has Boris lied to the House of Commons about negotiations with the EU? It seems obvious that he has. That is not a trivial matter. In my view Blair really should have gone to jail for his lies about WMD. Why should Boris be different?
Because Blair didn't - would be a valid argument..
I saw 750k uk emigrants to 3.7m EU in the UK, so thought 1 in 5
There wouldn’t have been a referendum to lose if immigration was lower.
If it were a good option for poor British citizens to move to EU countries and improve their lives then they wouldn’t have voted to close that option, is the point I’m trying to make. The fact is that they see FOM as a one way street not a reciprocal exchange.
OK right now I see what you are saying.
Just for a different perspective here in Germany (which also has a very ratio of immigrants to emigrants under FoM, and similar numbers in terms of % of population to UK) polling seems to show an even more overwhelming majority of Germans think that Freedom of Movement is a positive thing for Germany, than would vote to stay in the EU if they had a referendum! So obviously more to it than numbers and ratios.
Maybe Germans, rightly or wrongly, have a guilt complex that British, rightly or wrongly, don’t? I don’t know
I think it's clearer in Germany that immigrants are making an effort to get on as you have to learn the language to stay there (and for a lot of people the language isn't easy).
Yes and no.
There is also a lot of support from the government for assylum seekers to learn German and to learn skills. But if you are talking EU citizens moving within the EU, anyone can come to Germany, there is no need to show that you are "making an effort".
If you want German citizenship, that is another thing. You need amongst otherthings to have a good level of German, but very similar rules apply if you want British citizenship.
Fairly obviously. Negotiation via press is seldom a good move, announcing it at a joint press conference would be hmmmm interesting
If you had such plans surely you would have discussed or given them to the Irish before claiming to have them
Boris has no plan beyond bluster and piffle...
Or, ya know, discuss them in the meeting they are about to have and let Leo take them to his EU comrades for a sniff. The press are quite pathetic in their demand to know everything before its time. If there are no proposals then Varadkar can say after 'he proposed nothing at all'
Sorry I thought the press conference was after the meeting. WTF are they doing have a press conference before the meeting?
The Scotland PMI report has been released this morning. Malcolm Buchanan, Chair, Scotland Board, Royal Bank of Scotland, comments:
“The Scottish private sector remained close to stagnation in August, with only fractional growth signalled by the headline Business Activity Index. The manufacturing sector remained the main source of weakness, although the downturn eased since July. Meanwhile, activity growth in the service sector slipped to a marginal pace.
“Latest data highlighted a fall in new orders following two months of growth, whilst further evidence spare capacity was reflected in employment as firms continued to shed jobs, with the fall in workforce numbers accelerating from July.
“Political uncertainty continued to weigh down expectations, with business confidence the weakest since July 2016. The level of positive sentiment in Scotland was the second-lowest across the 12 monitored UK areas, with only Northern Ireland holding a weaker outlook. Overall, the forward-looking components of the survey suggest firms are expecting further challenging times ahead.”
Good to see some decent input re Scotland, most unusual here from unionist side. Even better the poster does not blame it on the SNP like the usual idiots and emigrants. Keep it up Hamiltonace.
Fairly obviously. Negotiation via press is seldom a good move, announcing it at a joint press conference would be hmmmm interesting
Leo Varadkar said that Ireland and the EU haven't been given any proposals from Johnson.
I am a leaver but this is pretty serious. Has Boris lied to the House of Commons about negotiations with the EU? It seems obvious that he has. That is not a trivial matter. In my view Blair really should have gone to jail for his lies about WMD. Why should Boris be different?
Listen carefully to Kwasi Kwarteng on Pienaar yesterday. When asked explicitly about whether there are plans he very studiously doesn't answer the question. It was a pretty clear admission by omission.
Scenario: Clarke (or other) becomes caretaker PM on basis of extending to hold a General Election (basis for French acceptance). Tories refuse to vote for said election. What happens then? VoNC in Clarke government?
-0.2 in Q2 and 0.0 in the 3 months to July but +0.3 in July. Makes a further contraction in Q3 unlikely if not impossible.
The latest GDP stats are actually surprisingly good.
I think our figures are being so distorted by Brexit (stock building Q1, winding down of stocks in Q2, utter bewilderment in Q3) at the moment that it is very hard to identify a clear underlying trend. Our economy is slowing but whether it is being as hard hit as the EZ by the global slowdown is hard to say. Javid's significant cash injection means growth really ought to pick up a tad next year but if Parliament is still arsing about who knows?
We're in a consumption bubble - it will end at some point.
But quite a bit of the construction spending seems to be based on it not ending.
Fairly obviously. Negotiation via press is seldom a good move, announcing it at a joint press conference would be hmmmm interesting
Leo Varadkar said that Ireland and the EU haven't been given any proposals from Johnson.
I am a leaver but this is pretty serious. Has Boris lied to the House of Commons about negotiations with the EU? It seems obvious that he has. That is not a trivial matter. In my view Blair really should have gone to jail for his lies about WMD. Why should Boris be different?
Because Blair didn't - would be a valid argument..
Fairly obviously. Negotiation via press is seldom a good move, announcing it at a joint press conference would be hmmmm interesting
If you had such plans surely you would have discussed or given them to the Irish before claiming to have them
Boris has no plan beyond bluster and piffle...
Or, ya know, discuss them in the meeting they are about to have and let Leo take them to his EU comrades for a sniff. The press are quite pathetic in their demand to know everything before its time. If there are no proposals then Varadkar can say after 'he proposed nothing at all'
Sorry I thought the press conference was after the meeting. WTF are they doing have a press conference before the meeting?
Questions during one after the meeting might be more embarrassing - Varadkar might not be as practiced a liar as Johnson.
Off topic - I reckon the entire narrative of Root's captaincy/England this morning would be different had a bit of very heavy dark cloud arrived late Friday Sunday at Old Trafford.
Why on earth does this exclude Ireland? There are many British Citizens living in Ireland, and Irish living in the UK who are effected just as much as with any other EU Country.
Because the Common Travel Area predates FOM by over half a century and is unaffected by Brexit.
Remainers clearly oppose suspension of parliament to force through revocation of Article 50 even though that would deliver what they wanted , whereas Leavers support clearly suspension to get no deal.
Remainers don’t need to be lectured about democracy !
-0.2 in Q2 and 0.0 in the 3 months to July but +0.3 in July. Makes a further contraction in Q3 unlikely if not impossible.
The latest GDP stats are actually surprisingly good.
I think our figures are being so distorted by Brexit (stock building Q1, winding down of stocks in Q2, utter bewilderment in Q3) at the moment that it is very hard to identify a clear underlying trend. Our economy is slowing but whether it is being as hard hit as the EZ by the global slowdown is hard to say. Javid's significant cash injection means growth really ought to pick up a tad next year but if Parliament is still arsing about who knows?
We're in a consumption bubble - it will end at some point.
But quite a bit of the construction spending seems to be based on it not ending.
Might it just be that the consumer bubble is finally shrinking? Hard to tell with the Brexit noise.
This doesn't sound particularly like a description of consumer goods: Imports of goods fell £14.1 billion to £119.5 billion in the three months to July 2019, as imports of unspecified goods (including non-monetary gold), chemicals, and machinery and transport equipment fell...
Strange how we've not been treated to multiple tweets about it.
The construction figures state that output over the 3 months fell by 0.8%. Such a small decline in the official figures suggests a genuine boom going by historical precedents.
A lot of building work going on around London but I just have a perception the pace has slackened and some sites I would have expected to have seen work commencing are still idle. Could this be a capacity issue?
-0.2 in Q2 and 0.0 in the 3 months to July but +0.3 in July. Makes a further contraction in Q3 unlikely if not impossible.
The latest GDP stats are actually surprisingly good.
I think our figures are being so distorted by Brexit (stock building Q1, winding down of stocks in Q2, utter bewilderment in Q3) at the moment that it is very hard to identify a clear underlying trend. Our economy is slowing but whether it is being as hard hit as the EZ by the global slowdown is hard to say. Javid's significant cash injection means growth really ought to pick up a tad next year but if Parliament is still arsing about who knows?
We're in a consumption bubble - it will end at some point.
But quite a bit of the construction spending seems to be based on it not ending.
Might it just be that the consumer bubble is finally shrinking? Hard to tell with the Brexit noise.
This doesn't sound particularly like a description of consumer goods: Imports of goods fell £14.1 billion to £119.5 billion in the three months to July 2019, as imports of unspecified goods (including non-monetary gold), chemicals, and machinery and transport equipment fell...
True, probably indicates a further pause in investment whilst our politicians fiddle.
Superb piece Casino although it’s another piece by a Remainer. 🤣
Glad to see you responding to criticism 👍🏻
Although the thrust of the criticism was that the articles were all pro Remain, not necessarily that they were always written by Remain voters. This article is not pro Leave
I campaigned for Leave, voted Leave and still advocate Leave. I am a Leaver. Further this article describes a course of action which would still result in us Leaving.
So that’s incorrect.
I never said you weren’t a leaver, so the first 15 words there are unnecessary.
It describes a course of action that results in us leaving, of course. That doesn’t make it pro or anti in my book. None of this was a criticism of you, get to work.
Your post suggested my thread was somehow anti-Leave, and that it had a Remain flavour. I take exception to that.
You’ve responded partly magnanimously but also laced it with tetchiness.
I haven’t written many thread headers for this site but you’ll see all of them I have written have been based on interesting betting tips with potential scenarios, and I enjoy longshots. I like to do that to share the insights and generate a bit of debate out on outcomes.
I’d have thought you’d appreciate that as an established punter.
I just thought it was a neutral article about politics and betting, and I quite liked reading it. I replied to Eagles because he tried to make out it was an example of the sites headers not being as remain biased as they are, and I thought a leaver writing neutrally doesn’t redress the balance.
Did you write ‘15/1’?
Fair enough.
Yes, I wrote 15/1 or perhaps even 12/1. I think he’s in a good position to pull together a large chunk of Tory MPs in an emergency situation and reach across the house, and the opposition know they’ll be no better way to piss off Boris.
So I have him at about as likely as Ken Clarke.
Why don’t you write something tip-based?
You have before (I think) and I’m sure it’d be published.
Scenario: Clarke (or other) becomes caretaker PM on basis of extending to hold a General Election (basis for French acceptance). Tories refuse to vote for said election. What happens then? VoNC in Clarke government?
That is a fascinating proposition
Ken Clarke ends a 50 year parliamentary career by becoming the shortest serving PM ever as he is VONC'd into retirement
Why on earth does this exclude Ireland? There are many British Citizens living in Ireland, and Irish living in the UK who are effected just as much as with any other EU Country.
Because the Common Travel Area predates FOM by over half a century and is unaffected by Brexit.
It still means that the "Immigration figures" are being dramatically underestimated. Or are you claiming that moving from Dublin to London is not Immingration but from London to Paris is?
Comments
-0.2 in Q2 and 0.0 in the 3 months to July but +0.3 in July. Makes a further contraction in Q3 unlikely if not impossible.
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1170981022759968768?s=20
Last week the PM wanted a new election, just because he is fed up with the current make up of parliament. Parliament said no. That is a good thing.
Quite frankly, it pisses me off. It is dogmatic, unthinking and childish.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Grg5tULy0tY
So it seems that things that start off not that seriously quickly gain currency.
Would make an interesting season finale in a Netflix series but not in real life.
Wrong photo !
Scenario 1: I can understand how the law could make this illegal, but that would have required Queen's Consent.
Scenario 2: I can understand how Queen's Consent was not needed because prerogative wasn't affected, which would mean the law should not make this illegal.
Saying the law changed what could be done under prerogative but didn't need Queen's Consent is a bit "cake and eat it". Since Speaker Bercow ruled Queen's Consent wasn't required we should surely be in scenario 2.
What a completely twattish thing to write.
The role of MPs is clearly badly understood, if at all. Are they representatives, are they delegates? No one seems to know but everyone has their assumptions.
Is a Referendum the same as an election? I think it's highly unlikely we will have another referendum on a big national issue in the next 50 years - there's a place for them in the resolution of local issues but it's the abdication of responsibility and authority by MPs that has led us down this path.
I think there remains a strong fundamental belief in democracy in this country - it's just that no one quite knows what it is and how it works.
I'm not sure about a written constitution but we could update and improve the Bill of Rights and make it our constitutional document for the 21st Century.
It would be a clear option to set a narrative in advance of the letter suit his own agenda.
https://www.forexfactory.com/
Strange how we've not been treated to multiple tweets about it.
https://twitter.com/WilliamsJon/status/1170986789198323713
I think immigration on balance has been positive but that it would be pretty delusional to think there arent any downsides to immigration or believing immigration control isnt needed.
Isam is perfectly entitled to think its a problem and given the numbers who agree the country has to care about it. That doesnt mean we cant ask for fairly balanced numbers when discussing it.
You’ve responded partly magnanimously but also laced it with tetchiness.
I haven’t written many thread headers for this site but you’ll see all of them I have written have been based on interesting betting tips with potential scenarios, and I enjoy longshots. I like to do that to share the insights and generate a bit of debate out on outcomes.
I’d have thought you’d appreciate that as an established punter.
Not only is that perhaps the only way for pro-EU types to try and sustainably overturn the previous result, they may have a much better shot at winning it than a General Election.
Yes I agree, Hunt does seem to have an outside chance much better than 66/1. Apart from the scenario you paint, there is also the possibility that Johnson could face a challenge as leader.
https://twitter.com/dirk1978/status/1170270081223462912?s=21
https://twitter.com/lukemcgee/status/1170985877784465408?s=20
Boris has no plan beyond bluster and piffle...
I posted on here a few weeks ago that people were spending like crazy during the heatwave!
July's hot weather will save us from a "technical recession" - I just know all PBs many Remainers will be delighted to hear that.
If, by using this or other procedural devices, 'remain' succeeds in overturning the referendum (in which i voted for 'remain', by the way) a terrible Pandora's box will have been opened which in due course will de-legitimise UK politics and the electoral process. People will say "if you wont abide by my majority vote, then why should i abide by yours?".
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-ireland/uk-and-irelands-common-travel-area-to-continue-after-brexit-idUKKCN1SE1QA
Thank you
On topic, good article and well argued, although I think it's less likely than ~6%.
But quite a bit of the construction spending seems to be based on it not ending.
Did you write ‘15/1’?
https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2019/09/09/polling-people-vs-parliament-what-a-new-survey-says-about-ou
I was neither looking to give succour nor encouragement to Revokers, not looking to draw fire from clean Leavers but that’s always a bit of a risk.
To be fair, most people on this site have been very generous about it, which is probably more than I deserve!
There is also a lot of support from the government for assylum seekers to learn German and to learn skills.
But if you are talking EU citizens moving within the EU, anyone can come to Germany, there is no need to show that you are "making an effort".
If you want German citizenship, that is another thing. You need amongst otherthings to have a good level of German, but very similar rules apply if you want British citizenship.
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1170968674267795456?s=20
That is a fascinating proposition
Might it just be that the consumer bubble is finally shrinking? Hard to tell with the Brexit noise.
FridaySunday at Old Trafford.Remainers clearly oppose suspension of parliament to force through revocation of Article 50 even though that would deliver what they wanted , whereas Leavers support clearly suspension to get no deal.
Remainers don’t need to be lectured about democracy !
Imports of goods fell £14.1 billion to £119.5 billion in the three months to July 2019, as imports of unspecified goods (including non-monetary gold), chemicals, and machinery and transport equipment fell...
Yes, I wrote 15/1 or perhaps even 12/1. I think he’s in a good position to pull together a large chunk of Tory MPs in an emergency situation and reach across the house, and the opposition know they’ll be no better way to piss off Boris.
So I have him at about as likely as Ken Clarke.
Why don’t you write something tip-based?
You have before (I think) and I’m sure it’d be published.