That joke doesn't work so well when the Tories have a thirteen point lead, against a horribly split opposition, which would deliver an utterly enormous landslide.
TSE's header is rather biased, as well.
They also have a 5% lead with the 2017 general election's most accurate pollster.
But the European elections most inaccurate pollster unlike YouGov and Survation was the only pollster to underestimate the Tory lead over Labour in 2017.
Survation seems to overestimate Labour and underestimate the LDs compared to YouGov as YouGov bases on voters who said they voted Labour in 2017 as recorded at the time thus avoiding false recall.
Either way though Survation or YouGov would both see a Boris led government re elected
Can't Boris just remove the whip and finish her career? That might limit further cabinet resignations. I know this isn't a confidence matter, but perhaps demonstrating insufficient devotion to the leader can be adjudged a comparable crime.
As the old world burns the new conservatives celebrate their poll leads.
LOL. 14% lead in YouGov probably matters more than Rudd (maj 346) flouncing out.
If you are right and BXP will forgive Boris for not getting us out by November, should his latest wheeze fail. The lead could otherwise be as ephemeral as those 10% leads May had earlier this year. Remember them?
Difference is May wanted an extension. She pushed for it. On a free vote in March she voted for it, a minority of her party to do so. She voted again no deal, again on a free vote.
Boris is a different kettle of fish altogether. If we're still in the EU come November it will show why Boris needs a majority, not that Boris wasn't a real Brexiteer. Actions like Rudd's will reinforce that.
You say that, but Farage and his chums give off different noises. Are they wrong, or fibbing?
Farage and his chums are desperate to be relevant. Boris IMO isn't appealing to Farage, he's appealing to Brexit voters.
Note that all the talk from BXP currently with regards to Tories is nothing at all about the date. It is entirely about the deal. They're trying to pressure the Tories to be about No Deal officially at the next election whenever it happens, not simply be out by end of October.
I think that Boris will stick to his "we will seek a good deal but are prepared for no deal" line at the election and the BXP if they attack him will do so for that. The date is rather moot.
So what's the opinion of the Brexiteers here? Is Amber Rudd's resignation: (1) Quite good for Boris (2) Very good for Boris or (3) Orgasmically good for Boris?
It really isnt any of those. Not least because it makes holding Rudd's seat a tall order
So many people have not grasped what Dom Cummings clearly has grasped, and which I have been banging on about for several weeks
Brexit is a revolution. It's way more than a political upheaval, it's an overturning of everything we understand about British elections, meanwhile, all received political opinions are rendered worthless. The only thing similar to this, in recent UK history, is Scotland post indyref, where Labour completely collapsed after a century of dominance - but Brexit is even bigger than that.
So, yes, it doesn't matter if the Tories lose Guildford IF they can win Gateshead and Grimsby. And things that would once have badly damaged a prine minister -- his minister brother resigning, a Cabinet minister following, etc etc - no longer count for much, if they count for anything, because chaos is expected, and priced in. IT'S A REVOLUTION.
And were all going to be a lot poorer for it, with the poorest suffering most as they always do. Well done chaps.
The airwaves filled with shouty, cross PBer-types, with endless "BoJo is a moron" memes. And yet the Tory lead grows....
Wake up punters - the country is SICKED AND TIRED OF THIS AND WANTS OUT. Fairly or unfairly, they are increasingly blaming Parliament, rebels and Labour for 'no deal' (in that order)..
Can't Boris just remove the whip and finish her career? That might limit further cabinet resignations. I know this isn't a confidence matter, but perhaps demonstrating insufficient devotion to the leader can be adjudged a comparable crime.
No. He can't remove the whip as she has resigned it.
I must say I am thoroughly enjoying seeing all these political careers crash and burn. A mass clear out of these MPs at the next election will be most welcome.
If only Labour wasn't cowering behind the sofa and would let us get on with it...
Can't Boris just remove the whip and finish her career? That might limit further cabinet resignations. I know this isn't a confidence matter, but perhaps demonstrating insufficient devotion to the leader can be adjudged a comparable crime.
The airwaves filled with shouty, cross PBer-types, with endless "BoJo is a moron" memes. And yet the Tory lead grows....
Wake up punters - the country is SICKED AND TIRED OF THIS AND WANTS OUT. Fairly or unfairly, they are increasingly blaming Parliament, rebels and Labour for 'no deal' (in that order)..
Can't Boris just remove the whip and finish her career? That might limit further cabinet resignations. I know this isn't a confidence matter, but perhaps demonstrating insufficient devotion to the leader can be adjudged a comparable crime.
Where do these departing/expelled Tory europhiles go ? Themselves, their friends and family, their personal votes, their time, their money, their political capacity. In Physics energy can neither be destroyed or created. Where does the energy that has been part of the Tory Party since at least Heath go ?
The LDs, they were always more liberal than conservative anyway, as was Heath, that was why they enjoyed the Coalition so much and dislike Brexit and Heath would have preferred a coalition with Thorpe than having to rely on the likes of Enoch Powell.
So what's the opinion of the Brexiteers here? Is Amber Rudd's resignation: (1) Quite good for Boris (2) Very good for Boris or (3) Orgasmically good for Boris?
It really isnt any of those. Not least because it makes holding Rudd's seat a tall order
So many people have not grasped what Dom Cummings clearly has grasped, and which I have been banging on about for several weeks
Brexit is a revolution. It's way more than a political upheaval, it's an overturning of everything we understand about British elections, meanwhile, all received political opinions are rendered worthless. The only thing similar to this, in recent UK history, is Scotland post indyref, where Labour completely collapsed after a century of dominance - but Brexit is even bigger than that.
So, yes, it doesn't matter if the Tories lose Guildford IF they can win Gateshead and Grimsby. And things that would once have badly damaged a prine minister -- his minister brother resigning, a Cabinet minister following, etc etc - no longer count for much, if they count for anything, because chaos is expected, and priced in. IT'S A REVOLUTION.
And if only one side grasps this fact and tries to gain ground....the balance shifts in their favour, which is all it will take to win. The Tory party will be reshaped. We're going to No-Deal.
I hope for a domino effect on both sides of the House. The danger is as one side crumbles the other side remains relatively sturdy as their own leader looks stronger in the face of his opponent, but hopefully both are so weak that that is not the case. The party system held up pretty darn well, but the crunch choices are almost here, and it is good to see more and more deciding they cannot just carry on like before.
Angela Smith is a poor ideological fit with the Lib Dems, has no hope of holding her seat and has low media value as she's already gone Lab to TIG to IND. She's a low quality defection. However a defection is a defection. The Swinson project is the antithesis of the Corbyn/Boris projects. It's about diluting and expanding the Lib Dems at the expense of liberal uniformity. In that sense odd fits are also good fits.
The airwaves filled with shouty, cross PBer-types, with endless "BoJo is a moron" memes. And yet the Tory lead grows....
Wake up punters - the country is SICKED AND TIRED OF THIS AND WANTS OUT. Fairly or unfairly, they are increasingly blaming Parliament, rebels and Labour for 'no deal' (in that order)..
That’s not actually what the polls are saying. The anti-No Deal parties retain majority support. The problem is their vote is split.
Angela Smith is a poor ideological fit with the Lib Dems, has no hope of holding her seat and has low media value as she's already gone Lab to TIG to IND. She's a low quality defection. However a defection is a defection. The Swinson project is the antithesis of the Corbyn/Boris projects. It's about diluting and expanding the Lib Dems at the expense of liberal uniformity. In that sense odd fits are also good fits.
Does more MPs mean more air time during a campaign?
So what's the opinion of the Brexiteers here? Is Amber Rudd's resignation: (1) Quite good for Boris (2) Very good for Boris or (3) Orgasmically good for Boris?
It really isnt any of those. Not least because it makes holding Rudd's seat a tall order
So many people have not grasped what Dom Cummings clearly has grasped, and which I have been banging on about for several weeks
Brexit is a revolution. It's way more than a political upheaval, it's an overturning of everything we understand about British elections, meanwhile, all received political opinions are rendered worthless. The only thing similar to this, in recent UK history, is Scotland post indyref, where Labour completely collapsed after a century of dominance - but Brexit is even bigger than that.
So, yes, it doesn't matter if the Tories lose Guildford IF they can win Gateshead and Grimsby. And things that would once have badly damaged a prine minister -- his minister brother resigning, a Cabinet minister following, etc etc - no longer count for much, if they count for anything, because chaos is expected, and priced in. IT'S A REVOLUTION.
And were all going to be a lot poorer for it, with the poorest suffering most as they always do. Well done chaps.
I tend to agree. This revolution terrifies me, sometimes, and agitates me, always.
But it is a revolution, nonetheless, and w're going to have to deal with it. Somehow.
As far as they will go, or an olive branch to negotiations? A lot of Tories who would be hurt by BXP standing will not be in that group, as he eagerly knows, but will a hard position from Boris appease Farage sufficiently to go easy on some less strident than the spartans?
Its pointless as Farage cannot make those voters go Conservative.
Those that want to do so will do so irrespective of what Farage says.
But if BXP stand they will get some number of voters who might have considered Tory if there was no BXP on offer. Of course you are right they are not directly transferable. But it will have an effect, and the Tories are obviously very afraid of that effect following the Euros.
"I think one point we are all forgetting - particularly when looking at the polling - is that acts that are illegal, unconstitutional or downright crazy are not necessarily unpopular. A few obvious examples spring to mind - Bonar Law's support for the UVF, Thatcher's use of the police without showing their numbers in the miners' strike, George III sacking Portland in 1783. And that's just in this country - de Gaulle's coup in 1958 would also be a good example. The key was the people doing the rule breaking were popular and those being hammered were not.
Johnson remains personally popular due to his TV appearances, and he is offering to leave the EU which, like it or not, whether its supporters know what they're doing or not, is a popular programme. So the fact he is breaking every rule in the book and a number that aren't may not condemn him as it should."
My response:-
Indeed. It is one reason why I think his approach could win him the next GE.
But it is still wrong. Breaking the law is wrong. And having a government which does this degrades our polity, degrades our country and should be criticised. Morality and legality do not depend on popularity. They matter more - in the end - than popularity. Without integrity we are nothing as a people or as a country, however unfashionable or unpopular it may be to say so.
Except he has not broken the law. As two court cases have proved he has remained within the law. You may not like what he has done but given the example set by Bercow for ignoring precedent, to claim this is some uniquely evil act is very wide of the mark
The law issue is not about the prorogation cases, it is about the mooted strategy of ignoring the just passed bill. So your point about court cases is entirely irrelevant.
Tory moderate mps continuing to put Labours to shame.
That is perhaps the untold story. Around 10% of the PCP have sufficient intestinal fortitude to hammer Johnson even at the expense of their careers. Labour's moderates, on the other hand, in almost all cases are still displaying the spine of a jellyfish.
Thanks to Corbyn, the Tories are going to win the next general election, but then they will collapse. The No Deal they will deliver and their morph into a hard right English Nationalist Party is not a sustainable offering.
That's basically my view as well. Almost anybody other than Corbyn would do significantly better for Labour, but the cultists appear blind to that fact.
The big Tory issue is how to deliver a Brexit that works for its new voter demographic. A cabinet of hard right, post-Thatcherites, supported by a much more right-wing cohort of MPs than even now, is not going to be throwing money at provincial, working class England for very long once the realities of No Deal bite.
Your presumption of belt-tightening Thatcherism could be off. Look at Boris - big spending, NHS and infrastructure projects, and I don't think that's just an election bribe. We could be seeing the emergence of an economically liberal, socially conservative party, which is probably overdue considering that might be where a majority of people in the country are.
So what's the opinion of the Brexiteers here? Is Amber Rudd's resignation: (1) Quite good for Boris (2) Very good for Boris or (3) Orgasmically good for Boris?
It really isnt any of those. Not least because it makes holding Rudd's seat a tall order
So many people have not grasped what Dom Cummings clearly has grasped, and which I have been banging on about for several weeks
Brexit is a revolution. It's way more than a political upheaval, it's an overturning of everything we understand about British elections, meanwhile, all received political opinions are rendered worthless. The only thing similar to this, in recent UK history, is Scotland post indyref, where Labour completely collapsed after a century of dominance - but Brexit is even bigger than that.
So, yes, it doesn't matter if the Tories lose Guildford IF they can win Gateshead and Grimsby. And things that would once have badly damaged a prine minister -- his minister brother resigning, a Cabinet minister following, etc etc - no longer count for much, if they count for anything, because chaos is expected, and priced in. IT'S A REVOLUTION.
I didn't vote for a revolution. Revolutions are bad. Very bad.
I voted for a recalibration of our relationship with our European neighbours and an orderly transition to a rational but more detached state in future.
The airwaves filled with shouty, cross PBer-types, with endless "BoJo is a moron" memes. And yet the Tory lead grows....
Wake up punters - the country is SICKED AND TIRED OF THIS AND WANTS OUT. Fairly or unfairly, they are increasingly blaming Parliament, rebels and Labour for 'no deal' (in that order)..
That’s not actually what the polls are saying. The anti-No Deal parties retain majority support. The problem is their vote is split.
The key thing in polls is certainly to vote and don knows. I imagine everyone apart from the evangelicals are filtered out.
Angela Smith is a poor ideological fit with the Lib Dems, has no hope of holding her seat and has low media value as she's already gone Lab to TIG to IND. She's a low quality defection. However a defection is a defection. The Swinson project is the antithesis of the Corbyn/Boris projects. It's about diluting and expanding the Lib Dems at the expense of liberal uniformity. In that sense odd fits are also good fits.
Which is wise. The further Labour and the Tories fly off to the extremes, the more empty middle there is to fill and the greater the chances of mopping up more wet centrist voters.
Cummings may not be that good at parliamentary tactics, yet, but he knows what messages resonate with the public.
There's no guarantee that Cummings isn't good at Parliamentary tactics. The simple reality is that this Parliament thanks to May's failed election had no Parliamentary majority, even with the DUP the uneasy coalitions within the parties were broken even in May's day.
May spent three years trying to paper over the cracks and it led to the biggest Parliamentary defeat on modern records and the Tories polling in single digit percentage on a national election!
Cummings and Boris aren't papering over the cracks, they're sticking dynamite in them. May was in office but not in power. Boris has decided he'd rather be in power than in office.
Its a high stakes gamble, Boris may lose the election in which case he's out of office. Or he wins, in which case his MPs will be behind him and he can get on with the job.
So, am I right in saying she's resigned as a minister and from the Conservative Party, but NOT as an MP (at least not yet), so this takes the Government down to 288 now. How long can this go on for?
So what's the opinion of the Brexiteers here? Is Amber Rudd's resignation: (1) Quite good for Boris (2) Very good for Boris or (3) Orgasmically good for Boris?
It really isnt any of those. Not least because it makes holding Rudd's seat a tall order
So many people have not grasped what Dom Cummings clearly has grasped, and which I have been banging on about for several weeks
Brexit is a revolution. It's way more than a political upheaval, it's an overturning of everything we understand about British elections, meanwhile, all received political opinions are rendered worthless. The only thing similar to this, in recent UK history, is Scotland post indyref, where Labour completely collapsed after a century of dominance - but Brexit is even bigger than that.
So, yes, it doesn't matter if the Tories lose Guildford IF they can win Gateshead and Grimsby. And things that would once have badly damaged a prine minister -- his minister brother resigning, a Cabinet minister following, etc etc - no longer count for much, if they count for anything, because chaos is expected, and priced in. IT'S A REVOLUTION.
I didn't vote for a revolution. Revolutions are bad. Very bad.
I voted for a recalibration of our relationship with our European neighbours and an orderly transition to a rational but more detached state in future.
The rise of the LDs with left Tory support is really destabilising for a forthcoming GE. Will play well in places but could lose their ABT supporters to Labour who are bound to be alarmed at their rise and must spend lots of energy reminding voters of their previous mention of the coalition.
Nicky Morgan is very similar to Amber Rudd in political terms. How much longer will she remain in the cabinet?
Both were turncoats. But Morgan went to the Dark Side much earlier with the Malhouse Declaration. The reason she was against May's deal was because May had sacked her.
Tory leads of 3%, 10% and 14% show that we need to take all polling with a pinch of salt.
Betfair Exchange has hardly moved on NOM, Tory majority odds.
Political events will as ever drive opinion and there is a hell of lot of this match to play...
Yes, they certainly have to be treated with caution and a certain amount of common sense. We know a great deal depends now on whether the PM does somehow take us out of the EU by the end of October. The ICM 'twin' poll looks the most informative to me because it makes some attempt to account for this.
My impression is that the wide variations in the other polls are attributable to respondents making different assumptions about where we will be on Nov 1st. Those skewed towards samples with a high percentage of voters who think we'll be out by Halloween would naturally give a higher Tory score, and correspondingly low Brexit figure. I note that whatever way it splits, Tory + BP = 47% or very close to in just about every poll.
So what's the opinion of the Brexiteers here? Is Amber Rudd's resignation: (1) Quite good for Boris (2) Very good for Boris or (3) Orgasmically good for Boris?
It really isnt any of those. Not least because it makes holding Rudd's seat a tall order
So many people have not grasped what Dom Cummings clearly has grasped, and which I have been banging on about for several weeks
Brexit is a revolution. It's way more than a political upheaval, it's an overturning of everything we understand about British elections, meanwhile, all received political opinions are rendered worthless. The only thing similar to this, in recent UK history, is Scotland post indyref, where Labour completely collapsed after a century of dominance - but Brexit is even bigger than that.
So, yes, it doesn't matter if the Tories lose Guildford IF they can win Gateshead and Grimsby. And things that would once have badly damaged a prine minister -- his minister brother resigning, a Cabinet minister following, etc etc - no longer count for much, if they count for anything, because chaos is expected, and priced in. IT'S A REVOLUTION.
The problem with revolutions is that they almost always fail. Having won in Grimsby, how does a hard right Tory party that dreams of Singapore and the smallest of states retain it?
So what's the opinion of the Brexiteers here? Is Amber Rudd's resignation: (1) Quite good for Boris (2) Very good for Boris or (3) Orgasmically good for Boris?
It really isnt any of those. Not least because it makes holding Rudd's seat a tall order
So many people have not grasped what Dom Cummings clearly has grasped, and which I have been banging on about for several weeks
Brexit is a revolution. It's way more than a political upheaval, it's an overturning of everything we understand about British elections, meanwhile, all received political opinions are rendered worthless. The only thing similar to this, in recent UK history, is Scotland post indyref, where Labour completely collapsed after a century of dominance - but Brexit is even bigger than that.
So, yes, it doesn't matter if the Tories lose Guildford IF they can win Gateshead and Grimsby. And things that would once have badly damaged a prine minister -- his minister brother resigning, a Cabinet minister following, etc etc - no longer count for much, if they count for anything, because chaos is expected, and priced in. IT'S A REVOLUTION.
I didn't vote for a revolution. Revolutions are bad. Very bad.
I voted for a recalibration of our relationship with our European neighbours and an orderly transition to a rational but more detached state in future.
Yes you did.
Sorry but if you wanted evolution you should have voted for Cameron's s##t deal and then we would have continued our semi-detached membership that has evolved since we got opt-outs to Maastricht.
The rest of the Tories will be looking at the polls and the feedback from the doorstep....... are they really going to desert a floating ship?
The whole point of picking Boris was that they don't like him but they think he will save their seats. That still might be true, and most are either loyalists or lemmings, so only the at risk and very brave are going to add to the desertion.
So, am I right in saying she's resigned as a minister and from the Conservative Party, but NOT as an MP (at least not yet), so this takes the Government down to 288 now. How long can this go on for?
November 1st ? I would hope longer as I do not want a GE before the 2nd referendum.
So what's the opinion of the Brexiteers here? Is Amber Rudd's resignation: (1) Quite good for Boris (2) Very good for Boris or (3) Orgasmically good for Boris?
It really isnt any of those. Not least because it makes holding Rudd's seat a tall order
So many people have not grasped what Dom Cummings clearly has grasped, and which I have been banging on about for several weeks
Brexit is a revolution. It's way more than a political upheaval, it's an overturning of everything we understand about British elections, meanwhile, all received political opinions are rendered worthless. The only thing similar to this, in recent UK history, is Scotland post indyref, where Labour completely collapsed after a century of dominance - but Brexit is even bigger than that.
So, yes, it doesn't matter if the Tories lose Guildford IF they can win Gateshead and Grimsby. And things that would once have badly damaged a prine minister -- his minister brother resigning, a Cabinet minister following, etc etc - no longer count for much, if they count for anything, because chaos is expected, and priced in. IT'S A REVOLUTION.
The problem with revolutions is that they almost always fail. Having won in Grimsby, how does a hard right Tory party that dreams of Singapore and the smallest of states retain it?
By winning a Tory majority at the General Election.
Nicky Morgan is very similar to Amber Rudd in political terms. How much longer will she remain in the cabinet?
Both were turncoats. But Morgan went to the Dark Side much earlier with the Malhouse Declaration. The reason she was against May's deal was because May had sacked her.
Proving in a number of ways that despite all evidence to the contrary Theresa May was actually somebody who had occasionally had reasonably good political instincts.
Just came back from Scotland after probably my most epic week of railway geekery ever!
On Monday evening did Stirling to Alloa, as well as Camelon (near Falkirk) to Larbert. Tuesday did Craigendoran to Oban (one of the West Highland Lines) Wednesday did Ladybank to Perth and Aviemore to Inverness Thursday did Crianlarich to Mallaig (the other West Highland) Friday did Leuchars to Dundee to Aberdeen And finally today did the loop from Inverkeithing round to Kirkcaldy via Cowdenbeath
That just leaves Inverness to Kyle, Inverness to Thurso and Wick, and Inverness to Aberdeen for me to complete the normal weekday National Rail network of Great Britain!
But will probably will wait until the days get longer again in the spring, though.
So what's the opinion of the Brexiteers here? Is Amber Rudd's resignation: (1) Quite good for Boris (2) Very good for Boris or (3) Orgasmically good for Boris?
It really isnt any of those. Not least because it makes holding Rudd's seat a tall order
So many people have not grasped what Dom Cummings clearly has grasped, and which I have been banging on about for several weeks
Brexit is a revolution. It's way more than a political upheaval, it's an overturning of everything we understand about British elections, meanwhile, all received political opinions are rendered worthless. The only thing similar to this, in recent UK history, is Scotland post indyref, where Labour completely collapsed after a century of dominance - but Brexit is even bigger than that.
So, yes, it doesn't matter if the Tories lose Guildford IF they can win Gateshead and Grimsby. And things that would once have badly damaged a prine minister -- his minister brother resigning, a Cabinet minister following, etc etc - no longer count for much, if they count for anything, because chaos is expected, and priced in. IT'S A REVOLUTION.
I didn't vote for a revolution. Revolutions are bad. Very bad.
I voted for a recalibration of our relationship with our European neighbours and an orderly transition to a rational but more detached state in future.
So did I, more or less, but this was a risk we took, and looks like we mucked it up.
So what's the opinion of the Brexiteers here? Is Amber Rudd's resignation: (1) Quite good for Boris (2) Very good for Boris or (3) Orgasmically good for Boris?
It really isnt any of those. Not least because it makes holding Rudd's seat a tall order
So many people have not grasped what Dom Cummings clearly has grasped, and which I have been banging on about for several weeks
Brexit is a revolution. It's way more than a political upheaval, it's an overturning of everything we understand about British elections, meanwhile, all received political opinions are rendered worthless. The only thing similar to this, in recent UK history, is Scotland post indyref, where Labour completely collapsed after a century of dominance - but Brexit is even bigger than that.
So, yes, it doesn't matter if the Tories lose Guildford IF they can win Gateshead and Grimsby. And things that would once have badly damaged a prine minister -- his minister brother resigning, a Cabinet minister following, etc etc - no longer count for much, if they count for anything, because chaos is expected, and priced in. IT'S A REVOLUTION.
The problem with revolutions is that they almost always fail. Having won in Grimsby, how does a hard right Tory party that dreams of Singapore and the smallest of states retain it?
By being a patriotic national conservative party, not a libertarian party.
So what's the opinion of the Brexiteers here? Is Amber Rudd's resignation: (1) Quite good for Boris (2) Very good for Boris or (3) Orgasmically good for Boris?
It really isnt any of those. Not least because it makes holding Rudd's seat a tall order
So many people have not grasped what Dom Cummings clearly has grasped, and which I have been banging on about for several weeks
Brexit is a revolution. It's way more than a political upheaval, it's an overturning of everything we understand about British elections, meanwhile, all received political opinions are rendered worthless. The only thing similar to this, in recent UK history, is Scotland post indyref, where Labour completely collapsed after a century of dominance - but Brexit is even bigger than that.
So, yes, it doesn't matter if the Tories lose Guildford IF they can win Gateshead and Grimsby. And things that would once have badly damaged a prine minister -- his minister brother resigning, a Cabinet minister following, etc etc - no longer count for much, if they count for anything, because chaos is expected, and priced in. IT'S A REVOLUTION.
The problem with revolutions is that they almost always fail. Having won in Grimsby, how does a hard right Tory party that dreams of Singapore and the smallest of states retain it?
By winning a Tory majority at the General Election.
So what's the opinion of the Brexiteers here? Is Amber Rudd's resignation: (1) Quite good for Boris (2) Very good for Boris or (3) Orgasmically good for Boris?
It really isnt any of those. Not least because it makes holding Rudd's seat a tall order
So many people have not grasped what Dom Cummings clearly has grasped, and which I have been banging on about for several weeks
Brexit is a revolution. It's way more than a political upheaval, it's an overturning of everything we understand about British elections, meanwhile, all received political opinions are rendered worthless. The only thing similar to this, in recent UK history, is Scotland post indyref, where Labour completely collapsed after a century of dominance - but Brexit is even bigger than that.
So, yes, it doesn't matter if the Tories lose Guildford IF they can win Gateshead and Grimsby. And things that would once have badly damaged a prine minister -- his minister brother resigning, a Cabinet minister following, etc etc - no longer count for much, if they count for anything, because chaos is expected, and priced in. IT'S A REVOLUTION.
And were all going to be a lot poorer for it, with the poorest suffering most as they always do. Well done chaps.
I tend to agree. This revolution terrifies me, sometimes, and agitates me, always.
But it is a revolution, nonetheless, and w're going to have to deal with it. Somehow.
The first step is do accept reality, the second step is to deal with those exploiting the situation and making it worse with petrol on the flames. Those that cannot accept Leave won and those playing games with no deal and spinning simple solutions like October 31 do or die.
So what's the opinion of the Brexiteers here? Is Amber Rudd's resignation: (1) Quite good for Boris (2) Very good for Boris or (3) Orgasmically good for Boris?
It really isnt any of those. Not least because it makes holding Rudd's seat a tall order
So many people have not grasped what Dom Cummings clearly has grasped, and which I have been banging on about for several weeks
Brexit is a revolution. It's way more than a political upheaval, it's an overturning of everything we understand about British elections, meanwhile, all received political opinions are rendered worthless. The only thing similar to this, in recent UK history, is Scotland post indyref, where Labour completely collapsed after a century of dominance - but Brexit is even bigger than that.
So, yes, it doesn't matter if the Tories lose Guildford IF they can win Gateshead and Grimsby. And things that would once have badly damaged a prine minister -- his minister brother resigning, a Cabinet minister following, etc etc - no longer count for much, if they count for anything, because chaos is expected, and priced in. IT'S A REVOLUTION.
We shall find out in due course. We thought the last election would be wholly dominated by Brexit. It wasn't.
But yes, if we really are in the process of some kind of transformation of the political system, then we could see a lot of very strange results in the next election. The constituency map might end up looking much more like the Leave/Remain map in 2016 - with the Tories taking the Leave bits and the anti-Tories the Remain ones.
So, am I right in saying she's resigned as a minister and from the Conservative Party, but NOT as an MP (at least not yet), so this takes the Government down to 288 now. How long can this go on for?
Forever, if the opposition parties refuse an election by any path. I hope there's no non-Brexit stuff that needs doing.
If he's not going to deny royal assent, this is the next best option IMO.
If the Supreme Court rule in his favour so be it. If the Supreme Court rules against him he has no choice but to follow the law. Either way the law is honoured and he has done everything in his power.
So what's the opinion of the Brexiteers here? Is Amber Rudd's resignation: (1) Quite good for Boris (2) Very good for Boris or (3) Orgasmically good for Boris?
It really isnt any of those. Not least because it makes holding Rudd's seat a tall order
So many people have not grasped what Dom Cummings clearly has grasped, and which I have been banging on about for several weeks
Brexit is a revolution. It's way more than a political upheaval, it's an overturning of everything we understand about British elections, meanwhile, all received political opinions are rendered worthless. The only thing similar to this, in recent UK history, is Scotland post indyref, where Labour completely collapsed after a century of dominance - but Brexit is even bigger than that.
So, yes, it doesn't matter if the Tories lose Guildford IF they can win Gateshead and Grimsby. And things that would once have badly damaged a prine minister -- his minister brother resigning, a Cabinet minister following, etc etc - no longer count for much, if they count for anything, because chaos is expected, and priced in. IT'S A REVOLUTION.
The problem with revolutions is that they almost always fail. Having won in Grimsby, how does a hard right Tory party that dreams of Singapore and the smallest of states retain it?
The Tories would then have the same challenge that the US Republicans have - how to win over the working classes to vote against their own economic interest. In the US they have religion an a host of cultural issues to use as levers. I can’t see the same approach working as well in the UK once Brexit itself drops down the agenda.
So what's the opinion of the Brexiteers here? Is Amber Rudd's resignation: (1) Quite good for Boris (2) Very good for Boris or (3) Orgasmically good for Boris?
It really isnt any of those. Not least because it makes holding Rudd's seat a tall order
So many people have not grasped what Dom Cummings clearly has grasped, and which I have been banging on about for several weeks
Brexit is a revolution. It's way more than a political upheaval, it's an overturning of everything we understand about British elections, meanwhile, all received political opinions are rendered worthless. The only thing similar to this, in recent UK history, is Scotland post indyref, where Labour completely collapsed after a century of dominance - but Brexit is even bigger than that.
So, yes, it doesn't matter if the Tories lose Guildford IF they can win Gateshead and Grimsby. And things that would once have badly damaged a prine minister -- his minister brother resigning, a Cabinet minister following, etc etc - no longer count for much, if they count for anything, because chaos is expected, and priced in. IT'S A REVOLUTION.
The problem with revolutions is that they almost always fail. Having won in Grimsby, how does a hard right Tory party that dreams of Singapore and the smallest of states retain it?
Revolutions nearly always fail?!
How do you arrive at such an ahistoricity?
What are the most famous revolutions? Off the top of my head:
France: succeeded America: succeeded England (Civil War and Glorious): both succeeded Russia: succeeded Ireland: (eventually succeeded)...
Even the revolutions that do fail often achieve their aims some way down the line/
Just came back from Scotland after probably my most epic week of railway geekery ever!
On Monday evening did Stirling to Alloa, as well as Camelon (near Falkirk) to Larbert. Tuesday did Craigendoran to Oban (one of the West Highland Lines) Wednesday did Ladybank to Perth and Aviemore to Inverness Thursday did Crianlarich to Mallaig (the other West Highland) Friday did Leuchars to Dundee to Aberdeen And finally today did the loop from Inverkeithing round to Kirkcaldy via Cowdenbeath
That just leaves Inverness to Kyle, Inverness to Thurso and Wick, and Inverness to Aberdeen for me to complete the normal weekday National Rail network of Great Britain!
But will probably will wait until the days get longer again in the spring, though.
When I did the far northern line, I saw three - three! - golden eagles.
And on every fecking occasion my camera wasn't ready...
Tory moderate mps continuing to put Labours to shame.
That is perhaps the untold story. Around 10% of the PCP have sufficient intestinal fortitude to hammer Johnson even at the expense of their careers. Labour's moderates, on the other hand, in almost all cases are still displaying the spine of a jellyfish.
The ones who actually care about the leadership problem went first with the Tiggers. The rest? Posturing. They give me sympathy for Corbyn with their moaning.
To secure the leadership it looks like Johnson told Leavers that he would No Deal and Remainers that he wouldn't.
I had thought that it was the Leavers he was lying to but it appears not. He lied to the Remainers.
Hence the exodus.
Moral? Best not to lie.
Wonder if he will learn the lesson. I suspect not. I sense that with Johnson the lying is congenital.
It's quite clear from public statements of Ruth Davidson and Francois. Both said they looked into Johnson's eyes ……...and Johnson told them diametrically opposite things.
It is astonishing and a somewhat depressing to find that even on an enlightened forum like this, it appears necessary to argue that the law should be obeyed, and that applies to the PM as much as anybody.
Can't Boris just remove the whip and finish her career? That might limit further cabinet resignations. I know this isn't a confidence matter, but perhaps demonstrating insufficient devotion to the leader can be adjudged a comparable crime.
If the Supreme Court says he can, what will be the difference between the UK, Russia, North Korea etc.
If the Supreme Court says he can then he will be acting lawfully!
There is a very strong case to argue about Queen's Consent and the Prerogative to begin with. If the Supreme Court rules that Bercow's decision was wrong then could they strike out the law?
So what's the opinion of the Brexiteers here? Is Amber Rudd's resignation: (1) Quite good for Boris (2) Very good for Boris or (3) Orgasmically good for Boris?
It really isnt any of those. Not least because it makes holding Rudd's seat a tall order
So many people have not grasped what Dom Cummings clearly has grasped, and which I have been banging on about for several weeks
Brexit is a revolution. It's way more than a political upheaval, it's an overturning of everything we understand about British elections, meanwhile, all received political opinions are rendered worthless. The only thing similar to this, in recent UK history, is Scotland post indyref, where Labour completely collapsed after a century of dominance - but Brexit is even bigger than that.
So, yes, it doesn't matter if the Tories lose Guildford IF they can win Gateshead and Grimsby. And things that would once have badly damaged a prine minister -- his minister brother resigning, a Cabinet minister following, etc etc - no longer count for much, if they count for anything, because chaos is expected, and priced in. IT'S A REVOLUTION.
The problem with revolutions is that they almost always fail. Having won in Grimsby, how does a hard right Tory party that dreams of Singapore and the smallest of states retain it?
Revolutions nearly always fail?!
How do you arrive at such an ahistoricity?
What are the most famous revolutions? Off the top of my head:
France: succeeded America: succeeded England (Civil War and Glorious): both succeeded Russia: succeeded Ireland: (eventually succeeded)...
Even the revolutions that do fail often achieve their aims some way down the line/
The most famous are bound to be the ones which are successful, surely it is hard to categorise attempts to radically alter a country which are not successful?
It also depends massively on what you call a revolution.
So what's the opinion of the Brexiteers here? Is Amber Rudd's resignation: (1) Quite good for Boris (2) Very good for Boris or (3) Orgasmically good for Boris?
It really isnt any of those. Not least because it makes holding Rudd's seat a tall order
So many people have not grasped what Dom Cummings clearly has grasped, and which I have been banging on about for several weeks
Brexit is a revolution. It's way more than a political upheaval, it's an overturning of everything we understand about British elections, meanwhile, all received political opinions are rendered worthless. The only thing similar to this, in recent UK history, is Scotland post indyref, where Labour completely collapsed after a century of dominance - but Brexit is even bigger than that.
So, yes, it doesn't matter if the Tories lose Guildford IF they can win Gateshead and Grimsby. And things that would once have badly damaged a prine minister -- his minister brother resigning, a Cabinet minister following, etc etc - no longer count for much, if they count for anything, because chaos is expected, and priced in. IT'S A REVOLUTION.
I didn't vote for a revolution. Revolutions are bad. Very bad.
I voted for a recalibration of our relationship with our European neighbours and an orderly transition to a rational but more detached state in future.
Were the revolutions in Eastern Europe in 1989 bad ?
Or the agricultural and industrial and digital revolutions ?
Revolutions are change, that can be good or bad in general and good or bad specifically.
This is very interesting. Will this sort of thing trigger Labour MP desertions to LDs? To lose Starmer would be massive. He has been a driving force against the Momentum invasion.
It is astonishing and a somewhat depressing to find that even on an enlightened forum like this, it appears necessary to argue that the law should be obeyed, and that applies to the PM as much as anybody.
Mad times. I fear the best strategy right now is to walk away from the net. Complacency perhaps, but people are so wound up they are saying increasingly inflammatory things. You get sucked into the madness.
Of course - he can add 'judges are the enemy' to his culture war stuff if he loses. HYUFD already calls the Court obvious remainers because of the Miller case, and on that alone, so no downside for him.
It is astonishing and a somewhat depressing to find that even on an enlightened forum like this, it appears necessary to argue that the law should be obeyed, and that applies to the PM as much as anybody.
Much of current Tory thinking is now inexplicable to me.
Comments
Survation seems to overestimate Labour and underestimate the LDs compared to YouGov as YouGov bases on voters who said they voted Labour in 2017 as recorded at the time thus avoiding false recall.
Either way though Survation or YouGov would both see a Boris led government re elected
Note that all the talk from BXP currently with regards to Tories is nothing at all about the date. It is entirely about the deal. They're trying to pressure the Tories to be about No Deal officially at the next election whenever it happens, not simply be out by end of October.
I think that Boris will stick to his "we will seek a good deal but are prepared for no deal" line at the election and the BXP if they attack him will do so for that. The date is rather moot.
Wake up punters - the country is SICKED AND TIRED OF THIS AND WANTS OUT. Fairly or unfairly, they are increasingly blaming Parliament, rebels and Labour for 'no deal' (in that order)..
And thanks to Rudd nobody will care and it will be background noise. Ha!
We are witnessing the demise of two great parties and how this shakes out I have no idea
But it is a revolution, nonetheless, and w're going to have to deal with it. Somehow.
I voted for a recalibration of our relationship with our European neighbours and an orderly transition to a rational but more detached state in future.
Why should hard-working candidates now immolate themselves so that some Labour or Tory turncoat can run?
May spent three years trying to paper over the cracks and it led to the biggest Parliamentary defeat on modern records and the Tories polling in single digit percentage on a national election!
Cummings and Boris aren't papering over the cracks, they're sticking dynamite in them. May was in office but not in power. Boris has decided he'd rather be in power than in office.
Its a high stakes gamble, Boris may lose the election in which case he's out of office. Or he wins, in which case his MPs will be behind him and he can get on with the job.
My impression is that the wide variations in the other polls are attributable to respondents making different assumptions about where we will be on Nov 1st. Those skewed towards samples with a high percentage of voters who think we'll be out by Halloween would naturally give a higher Tory score, and correspondingly low Brexit figure. I note that whatever way it splits, Tory + BP = 47% or very close to in just about every poll.
Sorry but if you wanted evolution you should have voted for Cameron's s##t deal and then we would have continued our semi-detached membership that has evolved since we got opt-outs to Maastricht.
Brexit was always going to be revolutionary.
https://twitter.com/markdistef/status/1170439283758555142?s=21
On Monday evening did Stirling to Alloa, as well as Camelon (near Falkirk) to Larbert.
Tuesday did Craigendoran to Oban (one of the West Highland Lines)
Wednesday did Ladybank to Perth and Aviemore to Inverness
Thursday did Crianlarich to Mallaig (the other West Highland)
Friday did Leuchars to Dundee to Aberdeen
And finally today did the loop from Inverkeithing round to Kirkcaldy via Cowdenbeath
That just leaves Inverness to Kyle, Inverness to Thurso and Wick, and Inverness to Aberdeen for me to complete the normal weekday National Rail network of Great Britain!
But will probably will wait until the days get longer again in the spring, though.
There is already a party for them
https://libertarianpartyuk.com/
I had thought that it was the Leavers he was lying to but it appears not. He lied to the Remainers.
Hence the exodus.
Moral? Best not to lie.
Wonder if he will learn the lesson. I suspect not. I sense that with Johnson the lying is congenital.
But yes, if we really are in the process of some kind of transformation of the political system, then we could see a lot of very strange results in the next election. The constituency map might end up looking much more like the Leave/Remain map in 2016 - with the Tories taking the Leave bits and the anti-Tories the Remain ones.
If the Supreme Court rule in his favour so be it. If the Supreme Court rules against him he has no choice but to follow the law. Either way the law is honoured and he has done everything in his power.
How do you arrive at such an ahistoricity?
What are the most famous revolutions? Off the top of my head:
France: succeeded
America: succeeded
England (Civil War and Glorious): both succeeded
Russia: succeeded
Ireland: (eventually succeeded)...
Even the revolutions that do fail often achieve their aims some way down the line/
And on every fecking occasion my camera wasn't ready...
Russia is a parallel that I'm finding alarmingly close.
The quality of media reporting on our national news is as dire as our MPs.
Tunnel vision, limited thinking.
We deserve better.
There is a very strong case to argue about Queen's Consent and the Prerogative to begin with. If the Supreme Court rules that Bercow's decision was wrong then could they strike out the law?
It also depends massively on what you call a revolution.
Or the agricultural and industrial and digital revolutions ?
Revolutions are change, that can be good or bad in general and good or bad specifically.
https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/
To lose Starmer would be massive. He has been a driving force against the Momentum invasion.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1170441862060154881?s=21