Either way works for him, doesn't it? If Britain is out, great. If it's not out, he can rightly claim he was prevented from leaving by Parliament, so you should vote in one that'll actually get it done.
If the UK is out when an election takes place it will be on a No Deal basis. It then depends on how far into No Deal we are. His best chance of a big majority is to get an election before we leave.
That can't happen now because of the act passed yesterday.
It can if Corbyn agrees to one. This is all in Corbyn's hands now. He gets to decide when we go to the polls. A large part of the Cummings/Johnson plan has been predicated on his sheer stupidity allied with his complete unelectability. That is not an unreasonable strategy. But they have lost control of events, which they did not plan.
How does that lead to an election after a no-deal Brexit? They want an election before Brexit day. Like I said, thanks to that new law there is now no way that there will be an election after a no deal brexit. It's either before Brexit day, or after an extension has been agreed.
Yep, fair point - I did not read your first post carefully enough. Corbyn decides the date, though.
No strictly true. The motion only states there is to be an election. The date is decided by HM on advice of the PM. Politically true, probably!
Very bad value. Lab are 3.95 for most seats on Betfair.
I have not met a person yet who is impressed by BoZo as PM so as to switch votes. I work in a mostly female workplace and he is widely despised for his lying and bullying. He is going to go down in flames during an election.
Terrible bet for the individual concerned but it emphasises the point about how much misinformed bluster there is about Boris being finished or being despised or even 'going down in flames'.
It is hope and desperation being paraded as considered thought which is why there are going to be so many devastated remainer/Labourite after the next GE.
It doesn't demonstrate anything other than poor odds are poor odds.
You each have your own opinions, which are... opinions.
I am going to plant my flag in the HYFUD side of the line. I’m quite surprised that so many here think we’re close to seeing the killing off of a No deal Brexit or Brexit entirely. As far as I can see, it’s closer to happening than ever.
No Deal and Revocation have both become more probable in the last six weeks.
The mushy middle had receded, which is good for intellectual purity. And bad for the lives of real, actual human beings.
I am going to plant my flag in the HYFUD side of the line. I’m quite surprised that so many here think we’re close to seeing the killing off of a No deal Brexit or Brexit entirely. As far as I can see, it’s closer to happening than ever.
No Deal and Revocation have both become more probable in the last six weeks.
The mushy middle had receded, which is good for intellectual purity. And bad for the lives of real, actual human beings.
But the gap between the two is far closer than either side would like to admit.
The mushy middle may plump for whichever option proffers the greater prospect of the most rapid resolution to the whole saga.
I agree. And even now an EEA/EFTA exit woud bring the vast majority of people together.
Would it though. Some of you may recall this was my preferred Brexit outcome when I voted to leave. But I have long assumed it dead and I don't see anything in what I hear or read today which changes my view.
Leavers have been gaslighted. They no longer understand what the words "leave" and "European Union" mean even as they all angrily quote said words off the ballot paper to justify no deal. An exit to EFTA/EEA would be seen as a massive betrayal - apparently the EEA is the EU in gaslight land, and I'm absolutely sure that EFTA would also be the EU were it seriously considered.
Which is why fed-upness is a necessary condition to resolution. When most people are so fed up they will accept a suboptimal outcome and don't want ever to talk about it again. People are pretty fed up, but not quite fed up enough, yet, in my estimation.
For this to happen, the election needs to deliver much the same balance of parties as now.
Either way works for him, doesn't it? If Britain is out, great. If it's not out, he can rightly claim he was prevented from leaving by Parliament, so you should vote in one that'll actually get it done.
If the UK is out when an election takes place it will be on a No Deal basis. It then depends on how far into No Deal we are. His best chance of a big majority is to get an election before we leave.
That can't happen now because of the act passed yesterday.
It can if Corbyn agrees to one. This is all in Corbyn's hands now. He gets to decide when we go to the polls. A large part of the Cummings/Johnson plan has been predicated on his sheer stupidity allied with his complete unelectability. That is not an unreasonable strategy. But they have lost control of events, which they did not plan.
To be fair, Cummings should have seen this coming. The planning of the last two days in the Commons was known. Some people were riling the anti-no-dealers during the recess by asking "why don't you get on with it?" it seems that they were getting a plan together so that the could "get on with it" very quickly when parliament returned.
We are indeed, but there is some uncertainty about the date.
There was a report on the BBC this morning that the SNP might cooperate with Johnson to agree an election before the 31st, but I haven't seen it elsewhere, and I can't see the logic.
The abiding lesson from this is that no referendum result can be enacted without the consent of Parliament. And not only the consent but the support. Brexit had neither; pretending to implement it isn't enough.
On that basis, a Scottish Independence vote is also doomed. MPs have decided that they rule OK.
Unfortunately for them, the voters don't agree. So that needs fixing. I can see only one winner, and it isn't the MPs.
As I've mentioned before, the poshos don't like taking orders from the lower classes and the MPs are no exception, which means politics will continue to be febrile. A GE now based on this clash will be toxic, but I think it's inevitable to clear the air.
Hilarious. Another attempt to suggest the "Establishment" is against Brexit. I will have to remind you, once again, Boris Johnson, incompetent and failing, but currently Prime Minister, is Eton and Oxford educated, is a multi-millionaire, is a Privy Councillor, a Tory, an ex-Foreign Secretary. Have I missed any of his Establishment credentials? Shall I go through the CV of Jacob Rees Mogg? Nigel Farage? If you think any of these people have any understanding or care for the poor, or so-called working class you are very gullible indeed, and I am no socialist, I am a one time Tory activist.
Basically, Jeremy Corbyn chooses the General Election date. So, it will probably be 6th November. Labour would be mad to hold the election before 31st October - do or die !
"And also @CD13 it is in Islington, Brighton, and Cambridge where house prices are out of reach of anyone on a normal salary."
Middle-class angst. They are being made to live in an area where house prices are high. The horror! Those lucky people where a terraced house can had for £60k are rolling in it, by comparison.
Even better, I can buy a pint of bitter for £2 - even cheaper if I go to Wetherspoons. The sympathy for those poor people whose houses are expensive is overwhelming.
Basically, Jeremy Corbyn chooses the General Election date. So, it will probably be 6th November. Labour would be mad to hold the election before 31st October - do or die !
7th November - it does need to be on a Thursday now there isn't a crisis.
Although 1st November would be an equally useful choice and even more trolling choice.
Either way works for him, doesn't it? If Britain is out, great. If it's not out, he can rightly claim he was prevented from leaving by Parliament, so you should vote in one that'll actually get it done.
If the UK is out when an election takes place it will be on a No Deal basis. It then depends on how far into No Deal we are. His best chance of a big majority is to get an election before we leave.
That can't happen now because of the act passed yesterday.
It can if Corbyn agrees to one. This is all in Corbyn's hands now. He gets to decide when we go to the polls. A large part of the Cummings/Johnson plan has been predicated on his sheer stupidity allied with his complete unelectability. That is not an unreasonable strategy. But they have lost control of events, which they did not plan.
To be fair, Cummings should have seen this coming. The planning of the last two days in the Commons was known. Some people were riling the anti-no-dealers during the recess by asking "why don't you get on with it?" it seems that they were getting a plan together so that the could "get on with it" very quickly when parliament returned.
I suspect Cummings is a lot less clever than Cummings thinks he is. He and a gullible Boris Johnson are caught up in a vortex made of Mr Cumming's own hubris
Either way works for him, doesn't it? If Britain is out, great. If it's not out, he can rightly claim he was prevented from leaving by Parliament, so you should vote in one that'll actually get it done.
If the UK is out when an election takes place it will be on a No Deal basis. It then depends on how far into No Deal we are. His best chance of a big majority is to get an election before we leave.
That can't happen now because of the act passed yesterday.
It can if Corbyn agrees to one. This is all in Corbyn's hands now. He gets to decide when we go to the polls. A large part of the Cummings/Johnson plan has been predicated on his sheer stupidity allied with his complete unelectability. That is not an unreasonable strategy. But they have lost control of events, which they did not plan.
How does that lead to an election after a no-deal Brexit? They want an election before Brexit day. Like I said, thanks to that new law there is now no way that there will be an election after a no deal brexit. It's either before Brexit day, or after an extension has been agreed.
Yep, fair point - I did not read your first post carefully enough. Corbyn decides the date, though.
No strictly true. The motion only states there is to be an election. The date is decided by HM on advice of the PM. Politically true, probably!
The "Notwithstanding, the FTPA 2011...………" resolution, I understand, actually mentions a date. That cannot be changed. 6th November, it is then.
So I’m mindful to say that an election in October is better for the ‘no no deal’ side if the result is a hung parliament or small Tory majority because it means Boris will need to no deal quickly or go for a deal and therefore polarize his electorate and party. Another election may soon follow.
No Deal and Revocation have both become more probable in the last six weeks.
The mushy middle had receded, which is good for intellectual purity. And bad for the lives of real, actual human beings.
But the gap between the two is far closer than either side would like to admit.
The mushy middle may plump for whichever option proffers the greater prospect of the most rapid resolution to the whole saga.
I agree. And even now an EEA/EFTA exit woud bring the vast majority of people together.
Would it though. Some of you may recall this was my preferred Brexit outcome when I voted to leave. But I have long assumed it dead and I don't see anything in what I hear or read today which changes my view.
Leavers have been gaslighted. They no longer understand what the words "leave" and "European Union" mean even as they all angrily quote said words off the ballot paper to justify no deal. An exit to EFTA/EEA would be seen as a massive betrayal - apparently the EEA is the EU in gaslight land, and I'm absolutely sure that EFTA would also be the EU were it seriously considered.
Mine too, post the Brexit vote, but I share your scepticism.
It might look very different in the aftermath of an election, but I don't see how parties seeking to differentiate themselves come anywhere near conspiring it before one. I might be the least objected to compromise (at some point), but it is the first choice of a relatively small minority.
Either way works for him, doesn't it? If Britain is out, great. If it's not out, he can rightly claim he was prevented from leaving by Parliament, so you should vote in one that'll actually get it done.
If the UK is out when an election takes place it will be on a No Deal basis. It then depends on how far into No Deal we are. His best chance of a big majority is to get an election before we leave.
That can't happen now because of the act passed yesterday.
It can if Corbyn agrees to one. This is all in Corbyn's hands now. He gets to decide when we go to the polls. A large part of the Cummings/Johnson plan has been predicated on his sheer stupidity allied with his complete unelectability. That is not an unreasonable strategy. But they have lost control of events, which they did not plan.
How does that lead to an election after a no-deal Brexit? They want an election before Brexit day. Like I said, thanks to that new law there is now no way that there will be an election after a no deal brexit. It's either before Brexit day, or after an extension has been agreed.
Yep, fair point - I did not read your first post carefully enough. Corbyn decides the date, though.
No strictly true. The motion only states there is to be an election. The date is decided by HM on advice of the PM. Politically true, probably!
The "Notwithstanding, the FTPA 2011...………" resolution, I understand, actually mentions a date. That cannot be changed. 6th November, it is then.
Is that the mechanism they are going to use? Is there even time, it’d have to pass through both houses in under a day.
Basically, Jeremy Corbyn chooses the General Election date. So, it will probably be 6th November. Labour would be mad to hold the election before 31st October - do or die !
7th November - it does need to be on a Thursday now there isn't a crisis.
Although 1st November would be an equally useful choice and even more trolling choice.
Let's compromise and make it 5th November , Guy Fawkes Night !
My better half, who doesn't share my obsession with the details of all this, is exactly where Cyclefree describes. She did not make her mind up to vote leave until the Monday of the week with the vote. She was genuinely unsure and frankly didn't feel strongly about it one way or another but she thinks you should always use your vote.
Now she is genuinely angry and frustrated at a political class who won't do what they were told and seem to want to drag this out interminably. She is at the point (as I suspect many are) where she is not listening at all to anything any of them are saying, she just wants this done. Many others I have spoken to on both sides of the argument have said something similar. A further extension is a terrible idea, even if in some peoples eyes that still makes it better than the alternatives.
We need a deal and we need it now. Boris will hopefully come back from the meeting in Brussels in October with a deal critics will say is very like what May had. If Parliament rejects it I honestly fear for the stability of our nation.
How can Johnson come back with a deal like May's when he has made dropping the backstop a red line and kicked out a load of MPs who voted for May's deal? He is committed to no deal now, whatever he says in public about getting a deal at the last minute, because he is insisting on something that the EU cannot agree to. Your fear for our country is wholly justified.
Boris has to bring the WDA back as amended with labour and TM before her resignation.
It is part of the no deal act (Kinnock amendment) and sponsored by 17 labour mps. Even McDonnell recognised it today on Sky suggesting it could be a compromise if the government conceded on a few issues
He cannot bring the WA back. His cabinet would not vote for it, neither would dozens of his MPs. It might get through Parliament with opposition support, but it would totally destroy the Conservative Party while turbocharging the Brexit Party. Johnson can only go for No Deal now. There are no other options.
Boris goes for a "give me the tools to get Brexit done" election.
The voters say, "sure, yeah, whatever you want - just get it bloody done man...."
Either way works for him, doesn't it? If Britain is out, great. If it's not out, he can rightly claim he was prevented from leaving by Parliament, so you should vote in one that'll actually get it done.
If the UK is out when an election takes place it will be on a No Deal basis. It then depends on how far into No Deal we are. His best chance of a big majority is to get an election before we leave.
That can't happen now because of the act passed yesterday.
It can if Corbyn agrees to one. This is all in Corbyn's hands now. He gets to decide when we go to the polls. A large part of the Cummings/Johnson plan has been predicated on his sheer stupidity allied with his complete unelectability. That is not an unreasonable strategy. But they have lost control of events, which they did not plan.
To be fair, Cummings should have seen this coming. The planning of the last two days in the Commons was known. Some people were riling the anti-no-dealers during the recess by asking "why don't you get on with it?" it seems that they were getting a plan together so that the could "get on with it" very quickly when parliament returned.
I suspect Cummings is a lot less clever than Cummings thinks he is. He and a gullible Boris Johnson are caught up in a vortex made of Mr Cumming's own hubris
I expect Dominic Cummings is every bit as clever as he thinks he is. However, his current job requires people management skills and it is abundantly apparent that he is utterly lacking in them.
Either way works for him, doesn't it? If Britain is out, great. If it's not out, he can rightly claim he was prevented from leaving by Parliament, so you should vote in one that'll actually get it done.
If the UK is out when an election takes place it will be on a No Deal basis. It then depends on how far into No Deal we are. His best chance of a big majority is to get an election before we leave.
That can't happen now because of the act passed yesterday.
It can if Corbyn agrees to one. This is all in Corbyn's hands now. He gets to decide when we go to the polls. A large part of the Cummings/Johnson plan has been predicated on his sheer stupidity allied with his complete unelectability. That is not an unreasonable strategy. But they have lost control of events, which they did not plan.
To be fair, Cummings should have seen this coming. The planning of the last two days in the Commons was known. Some people were riling the anti-no-dealers during the recess by asking "why don't you get on with it?" it seems that they were getting a plan together so that the could "get on with it" very quickly when parliament returned.
I suspect Cummings is a lot less clever than Cummings thinks he is. He and a gullible Boris Johnson are caught up in a vortex made of Mr Cumming's own hubris
I suspect Cummings biggest weakness is that he thinks he is clever enough that he doesn't need to listen to the opinions of others.
Meanwhile everyone else sat together and having worked out the flaws in their plans came up with an approach that would work.
I do think if the opposition collude to prevent a GE until after 31st October Boris has the perfect response.
A remainer HOC colluded with the EU to prevent Brexit
give me a majority and we will leave
It doesn't work. He said 31 October, "do or die". Since he won't have died, he's obviously done.
If Johnson can't get an election before 31st then he might as well either not bother at all (Do not forget FTPA).
The date will not be based on FTPA. They will take the simple majority "Not withstanding FTPA 2011..." route, in which the date of the election can be set and cannot be ignored [ unless amended later, of course ].
Either way works for him, doesn't it? If Britain is out, great. If it's not out, he can rightly claim he was prevented from leaving by Parliament, so you should vote in one that'll actually get it done.
If the UK is out when an election takes place it will be on a No Deal basis. It then depends on how far into No Deal we are. His best chance of a big majority is to get an election before we leave.
That can't happen now because of the act passed yesterday.
It can if Corbyn agrees to one. This is all in Corbyn's hands now. He gets to decide when we go to the polls. A large part of the Cummings/Johnson plan has been predicated on his sheer stupidity allied with his complete unelectability. That is not an unreasonable strategy. But they have lost control of events, which they did not plan.
To be fair, Cummings should have seen this coming. The planning of the last two days in the Commons was known. Some people were riling the anti-no-dealers during the recess by asking "why don't you get on with it?" it seems that they were getting a plan together so that the could "get on with it" very quickly when parliament returned.
I suspect Cummings is a lot less clever than Cummings thinks he is. He and a gullible Boris Johnson are caught up in a vortex made of Mr Cumming's own hubris
I suspect Cummings biggest weakness is that he thinks he is clever enough that he doesn't need to listen to the opinions of others.
Meanwhile everyone else sat together and having worked out the flaws in their plans came up with an approach that would work.
They didn’t seem to see the filibuster in the Lords coming, did they? That could have easily scuppered the whole thing. Will be interesting when we find out what the deal was, maybe the upcoming address has something to do with it?
We are indeed, but there is some uncertainty about the date.
There was a report on the BBC this morning that the SNP might cooperate with Johnson to agree an election before the 31st, but I haven't seen it elsewhere, and I can't see the logic.
Anyone else know anything about this ?
Seems to be a rumour being put out on Twitter by Christine Jardine (LD).
Truth hurts. Doesn’t feel like the backdrop to Boris’ successful campaigns.
The interesting thing about this is that in my whole life I cannot remember a PM (even including the polarising figures of Mrs Thatcher and Mr. Blair) who manage to attract such disdain and open disrespect as BoZo from parliamentarians, even those that were once of the same party. It further underlines his complete unsuitability. The big problem is that the alternative is equally as bad.
I do think if the opposition collude to prevent a GE until after 31st October Boris has the perfect response.
A remainer HOC colluded with the EU to prevent Brexit
give me a majority and we will leave
It doesn't work. He said 31 October, "do or die". Since he won't have died, he's obviously done.
If Johnson can't get an election before 31st then he might as well either not bother at all (Do not forget FTPA).
The date will not be based on FTPA. They will take the simple majority "Not withstanding FTPA 2011..." route, in which the date of the election can be set and cannot be ignored [ unless amended later, of course ].
I don't think there is time for that any more since that is a bill and would require votes in the Commons and Lords, and RA.
I do think if the opposition collude to prevent a GE until after 31st October Boris has the perfect response.
A remainer HOC colluded with the EU to prevent Brexit
give me a majority and we will leave
It doesn't work. He said 31 October, "do or die". Since he won't have died, he's obviously done.
If Johnson can't get an election before 31st then he might as well either not bother at all (Do not forget FTPA).
The date will not be based on FTPA. They will take the simple majority "Not withstanding FTPA 2011..." route, in which the date of the election can be set and cannot be ignored [ unless amended later, of course ].
Either way works for him, doesn't it? If Britain is out, great. If it's not out, he can rightly claim he was prevented from leaving by Parliament, so you should vote in one that'll actually get it done.
If the UK is out when an election takes place it will be on a No Deal basis. It then depends on how far into No Deal we are. His best chance of a big majority is to get an election before we leave.
That can't happen now because of the act passed yesterday.
It can if Corbyn agrees to one. This is all in Corbyn's hands now. He gets to decide when we go to the polls. A large part of the Cummings/Johnson plan has been predicated on his sheer stupidity allied with his complete unelectability. That is not an unreasonable strategy. But they have lost control of events, which they did not plan.
To be fair, Cummings should have seen this coming. The planning of the last two days in the Commons was known. Some people were riling the anti-no-dealers during the recess by asking "why don't you get on with it?" it seems that they were getting a plan together so that the could "get on with it" very quickly when parliament returned.
I suspect Cummings is a lot less clever than Cummings thinks he is. He and a gullible Boris Johnson are caught up in a vortex made of Mr Cumming's own hubris
I expect Dominic Cummings is every bit as clever as he thinks he is. However, his current job requires people management skills and it is abundantly apparent that he is utterly lacking in them.
This, and more specifically Cumming's strategy depends on people who hate his guts doing exactly what he wants them to do, to his advantage, and not theirs.
‘Bollocks to Brexit’ was a promising start for the Lib Dems. Unfortunately, Swinson had to abandon it, or lose her own seat. She is entirely dependent on SCon tactical votes to cling on.
“Bollocks to Brexit” is certainly memorable but is not shared by Labour. It may help the Lib Dems but they are unlikely to form the next government on their own.
Anyway I have to make my own elevator pitch today so I will check in later.
Who knows what will have happened by then?!
It’s also rather childish.
I’m sure it animates and activates the core street activists and twitterati.
It probably plays far less well with floating voters.
The paradox of Brexit is that it has been very effective in turning previously lacklustre enthusiasm into intense europhilia, and producing the biggest pro EU demonstrations of our era. Never before have we seen the EU flag waved so publically and energetically. Bollocks to Brexit is a very popular message, albeit to only half the population.
It’s popular amongst about 15-20% of the population.
It’s the rest you need to worry about.
15-20% on average. In parts of the country much better than that, and some areas much less.
Indeed one of the forthcoming problems for the LDs is so many former Tory Remainers joining, voting and winning as Lib Dems as to unbalance the party.
You have to decide what it is you really want.
I would like to see the LDs back on 50+ seats, and that looks far more viable than it did post 2015 GE. I am quite happy with Tories like Phillip Lee or Sarah Wollaston joining, I have always been a fiscally dry Orange Booker.
And Lee's stance on same sex marriage?
When he was a Tory, I am sure you called him a homophobe. Now he is your bestie.
It is like Michael Brown's dirty money, isn't it. The LibDems like to portray themselves as very principled, but in fact they have none.
I don't think I have ever called any UK politician a homophobe. In any case heaven has a place for a sinner who repents
Political parties are composed of fallible individuals. It matters less where they have come from than where they are going.
I do think if the opposition collude to prevent a GE until after 31st October Boris has the perfect response.
A remainer HOC colluded with the EU to prevent Brexit
give me a majority and we will leave
It doesn't work. He said 31 October, "do or die". Since he won't have died, he's obviously done.
If Johnson can't get an election before 31st then he might as well either not bother at all (Do not forget FTPA).
The date will not be based on FTPA. They will take the simple majority "Not withstanding FTPA 2011..." route, in which the date of the election can be set and cannot be ignored [ unless amended later, of course ].
I don't think there is time for that any more since that is a bill and would require votes in the Commons and Lords, and RA.
So it will have to wait. But I think if there is agreement, surprisingly, bills can be passed.
I do think if the opposition collude to prevent a GE until after 31st October Boris has the perfect response.
A remainer HOC colluded with the EU to prevent Brexit
give me a majority and we will leave
It doesn't work. He said 31 October, "do or die". Since he won't have died, he's obviously done.
If Johnson can't get an election before 31st then he might as well either not bother at all (Do not forget FTPA).
The date will not be based on FTPA. They will take the simple majority "Not withstanding FTPA 2011..." route, in which the date of the election can be set and cannot be ignored [ unless amended later, of course ].
‘Bollocks to Brexit’ was a promising start for the Lib Dems. Unfortunately, Swinson had to abandon it, or lose her own seat. She is entirely dependent on SCon tactical votes to cling on.
“Bollocks to Brexit” is certainly memorable but is not shared by Labour. It may help the Lib Dems but they are unlikely to form the next government on their own.
Anyway I have to make my own elevator pitch today so I will check in later.
Who knows what will have happened by then?!
It’s also rather childish.
I’m sure it animates and activates the core street activists and twitterati.
It probably plays far less well with floating voters.
The paradox of Brexit is that it has been very effective in turning previously lacklustre enthusiasm into intense europhilia, and producing the biggest pro EU demonstrations of our era. Never before have we seen the EU flag waved so publically and energetically. Bollocks to Brexit is a very popular message, albeit to only half the population.
It’s popular amongst about 15-20% of the population.
It’s the rest you need to worry about.
15-20% on average. In parts of the country much better than that, and some areas much less.
Indeed one of the forthcoming problems for the LDs is so many former Tory Remainers joining, voting and winning as Lib Dems as to unbalance the party.
You have to decide what it is you really want.
I would like to see the LDs back on 50+ seats, and that looks far more viable than it did post 2015 GE. I am quite happy with Tories like Phillip Lee or Sarah Wollaston joining, I have always been a fiscally dry Orange Booker.
And Lee's stance on same sex marriage?
When he was a Tory, I am sure you called him a homophobe. Now he is your bestie.
It is like Michael Brown's dirty money, isn't it ?
Not really, no. Lee will be obliged to follow party policy.
And the point about the Lib Dems accepting Tory or Labour refugees is that a party of the centre wishing to be a broad church has to accept a diversity of opinion within the party (something the two 'major' parties seem to have abandoned), while maintaining the party's overarching principles.
Will it be easy ? Likely not - but it is a goal worth pursuing.
I do think if the opposition collude to prevent a GE until after 31st October Boris has the perfect response.
A remainer HOC colluded with the EU to prevent Brexit
give me a majority and we will leave
It doesn't work. He said 31 October, "do or die". Since he won't have died, he's obviously done.
If Johnson can't get an election before 31st then he might as well either not bother at all (Do not forget FTPA).
The date will not be based on FTPA. They will take the simple majority "Not withstanding FTPA 2011..." route, in which the date of the election can be set and cannot be ignored [ unless amended later, of course ].
I don't think there is time for that any more since that is a bill and would require votes in the Commons and Lords, and RA.
So it will have to wait. But I think if there is agreement, surprisingly, bills can be passed.
Yes, but it takes time, and there is no longer time to pass that. The soonest Parliament could pass a bill like that is after conference recess, which puts the election five weeks after that.
Truth hurts. Doesn’t feel like the backdrop to Boris’ successful campaigns.
The interesting thing about this is that in my whole life I cannot remember a PM (even including the polarising figures of Mrs Thatcher and Mr. Blair) who manage to attract such disdain and open disrespect as BoZo from parliamentarians, even those that were once of the same party. It further underlines his complete unsuitability. The big problem is that the alternative is equally as bad.
The better people know Boris, the less people like him. The reverse actually appears to be true about Corbyn.
Truth hurts. Doesn’t feel like the backdrop to Boris’ successful campaigns.
The interesting thing about this is that in my whole life I cannot remember a PM (even including the polarising figures of Mrs Thatcher and Mr. Blair) who manage to attract such disdain and open disrespect as BoZo from parliamentarians
Thatcher and Blair were hated - but respected - their opponents only rarely underestimated them - unless HYFUD’s “strategic and tactical genius” theory is correct the same does not appear to apply to Johnson....
Truth hurts. Doesn’t feel like the backdrop to Boris’ successful campaigns.
The interesting thing about this is that in my whole life I cannot remember a PM (even including the polarising figures of Mrs Thatcher and Mr. Blair) who manage to attract such disdain and open disrespect as BoZo from parliamentarians, even those that were once of the same party. It further underlines his complete unsuitability. The big problem is that the alternative is equally as bad.
The better people know Boris, the less people like him. The reverse actually appears to be true about Corbyn.
Boris seems to be a nasty piece of work.
The less people know Corbyn, the more they like him? Sounds about right...
Well said Mr Foxy. The Conservative Party used to be a broad church that would accommodate people with my One Nation/Clarkeite views and even the extreme views of Jacob Rees Mogg (God preserve us) at the other end. It has chosen to no longer be like this. If the Lib Dems can achieve that broad church approach then all credit to them
I do think if the opposition collude to prevent a GE until after 31st October Boris has the perfect response.
A remainer HOC colluded with the EU to prevent Brexit
give me a majority and we will leave
That assumes that that message is still popular. It may be with some diehard Leavers, but perhaps a number of floating voters will start asking who they might blame for this whole mess. Maybe they might notice that Boris Johnson was one of the people that claimed in 2016 that it was going to be easy, and it was "going to be great".
A poll a poll my kingdom for a poll.
Makes you wonder actually whether Bozza saw some positive internal polling numbers in between PMQs and the election motion. He seemed much perkier. Either that or he had a nice lunch.
My better half, who doesn't share my obsession with the details of all this, is exactly where Cyclefree describes. She did not make her mind up to vote leave until the Monday of the week with the vote. She was genuinely unsure and frankly didn't feel strongly about it one way or another but she thinks you should always use your vote.
Now she is genuinely angry and frustrated at a political class who won't do what they were told and seem to want to drag this out interminably. She is at the point (as I suspect many are) where she is not listening at all to anything any of them are saying, she just wants this done. Many others I have spoken to on both sides of the argument have said something similar. A further extension is a terrible idea, even if in some peoples eyes that still makes it better than the alternatives.
We need a deal and we need it now. Boris will hopefully come back from the meeting in Brussels in October with a deal critics will say is very like what May had. If Parliament rejects it I honestly fear for the stability of our nation.
How can Johnson come back with a deal like May's when he has made dropping the backstop a red line and kicked out a load of MPs who voted for May's deal? He is committed to no deal now, whatever he says in public about getting a deal at the last minute, because he is insisting on something that the EU cannot agree to. Your fear for our country is wholly justified.
Boris has to bring the WDA back as amended with labour and TM before her resignation.
It is part of the no deal act (Kinnock amendment) and sponsored by 17 labour mps. Even McDonnell recognised it today on Sky suggesting it could be a compromise if the government conceded on a few issues
He cannot bring the WA back. His cabinet would not vote for it, neither would dozens of his MPs. It might get through Parliament with opposition support, but it would totally destroy the Conservative Party while turbocharging the Brexit Party. Johnson can only go for No Deal now. There are no other options.
Boris goes for a "give me the tools to get Brexit done" election.
The voters say, "sure, yeah, whatever you want - just get it bloody done man...."
Didnt TM try and do that?
She did but Parliament wasn't frustrating her then so it seemed like a lie.
Parliament is frustrating Brexit now. Big difference.
I do think if the opposition collude to prevent a GE until after 31st October Boris has the perfect response.
A remainer HOC colluded with the EU to prevent Brexit
give me a majority and we will leave
It doesn't work. He said 31 October, "do or die". Since he won't have died, he's obviously done.
I've been thinking about this. I don't know if this resonates as much as you think it does. The only way it really hurts him is if Farage hammers him with it during an election. It's not like Labour/Lib Dems/SNP can throw it in his face, is it?
Johnson says parliament has conspired to stop Brexit. The big question is, what does he say he would do with a majority? More negotiations? My suspicion is he goes nuclear - partly to appease Farage - and says "enough, we leave with no deal on 31 January." And then we'll see who wants to stand to be a Tory MP on that promise.
I do think if the opposition collude to prevent a GE until after 31st October Boris has the perfect response.
A remainer HOC colluded with the EU to prevent Brexit
give me a majority and we will leave
It doesn't work. He said 31 October, "do or die". Since he won't have died, he's obviously done.
If Johnson can't get an election before 31st then he might as well either not bother at all (Do not forget FTPA).
The date will not be based on FTPA. They will take the simple majority "Not withstanding FTPA 2011..." route, in which the date of the election can be set and cannot be ignored [ unless amended later, of course ].
Is that known information or informed speculation
It has to be otherwise it won't be moved until after 14th October. Labour will not accept any election before 31st October. Labour will make sure that Johnson must eat his words " 31st October - do or die! ".
If there was an election before 31st October, and the Tories win, he can repeal the Act and go No Deal.
Om topic I'd agree a good elevator pitch message would be very useful, though if motivated enough people might supply their own and that will be enough. I'd give it 60 40 to Boris winning out at present.
Truth hurts. Doesn’t feel like the backdrop to Boris’ successful campaigns.
The interesting thing about this is that in my whole life I cannot remember a PM (even including the polarising figures of Mrs Thatcher and Mr. Blair) who manage to attract such disdain and open disrespect as BoZo from parliamentarians, even those that were once of the same party. It further underlines his complete unsuitability. The big problem is that the alternative is equally as bad.
The better people know Boris, the less people like him. The reverse actually appears to be true about Corbyn.
Boris seems to be a nasty piece of work.
I agree with most of what you have said, though must disagree on Corbyn. Corbyn is as incompetent and as unpleasant as BoZo only even more stupid. My mother used to say that you can judge someone by the company they keep. Neither party leader comes out of that test well.
I do think if the opposition collude to prevent a GE until after 31st October Boris has the perfect response.
A remainer HOC colluded with the EU to prevent Brexit
give me a majority and we will leave
It doesn't work. He said 31 October, "do or die". Since he won't have died, he's obviously done.
If Johnson can't get an election before 31st then he might as well either not bother at all (Do not forget FTPA).
The date will not be based on FTPA. They will take the simple majority "Not withstanding FTPA 2011..." route, in which the date of the election can be set and cannot be ignored [ unless amended later, of course ].
I don't think there is time for that any more since that is a bill and would require votes in the Commons and Lords, and RA.
Why do you say that? If they can railroad a revolutionary adoption of SO24 to force a money bill through the commons in hours, with the lords and royal assent in another 48hours, should be easy for a one-line general election motion?
Don't forget also that the proroguing statement said: "It is this day ordered by Her Majesty in Council that the Parliament be prorogued on a day no earlier than Monday the 9th day of September and no later than Thursday the 12th day of September 2019".
I have to say I found that part of the statement curious at the time but perhaps Cummings has more smarts and foresight than the masses here want to acknowledge.
Weirdly, talk in the office this morning in County Durham is that they have been enjoying watching the House of Commons last few days and that MPs should have passed May’s deal as it is ‘the best deal we’re going to get’ and ‘Boris is losing the plot’.
I do think if the opposition collude to prevent a GE until after 31st October Boris has the perfect response.
A remainer HOC colluded with the EU to prevent Brexit
give me a majority and we will leave
It doesn't work. He said 31 October, "do or die". Since he won't have died, he's obviously done.
If Johnson can't get an election before 31st then he might as well either not bother at all (Do not forget FTPA).
The date will not be based on FTPA. They will take the simple majority "Not withstanding FTPA 2011..." route, in which the date of the election can be set and cannot be ignored [ unless amended later, of course ].
Is that known information or informed speculation
It has to be otherwise it won't be moved until after 14th October. Labour will not accept any election before 31st October. Labour will make sure that Johnson must eat his words " 31st October - do or die! ".
If there was an election before 31st October, and the Tories win, he can repeal the Act and go No Deal.
It can't be. There's two more sitting days left before prorogation, and not enough time to pass another bill from scratch. The earliest they could go down the one-line bill route is after prorogation on October 14th. Which puts the election way after your claimed date of the 6th.
As usual there seems to be a lot of short term tactical thinking going on, and very little thinking beyond a very short term horizon. What this bill does, at most, is allow an extension for 3 months. The calls to delay an election beyond Oct 31st are based on an assumption that this will be bad for the Conservatives, but it doesn’t necessarily follow that this is good for the Remain opposition.
It maybe that it would be better fighting an election knowing that only a decisive Johnson victory will deliver no deal, than post Oct 31st when the Brexit party comes into the picture in a big way.
And if Johnson isn’t given an election on Oct 15th, isn’t it quite likely that he will try to go long and not have an election at all? With the possibility that he might actually get some sort of deal through...
Does the opposition have the votes for a post Oct 31st election if the Govt decides it doesn’t want one?
Truth hurts. Doesn’t feel like the backdrop to Boris’ successful campaigns.
The interesting thing about this is that in my whole life I cannot remember a PM (even including the polarising figures of Mrs Thatcher and Mr. Blair) who manage to attract such disdain and open disrespect as BoZo from parliamentarians, even those that were once of the same party. It further underlines his complete unsuitability. The big problem is that the alternative is equally as bad.
The better people know Boris, the less people like him. The reverse actually appears to be true about Corbyn.
Boris seems to be a nasty piece of work.
I agree with most of what you have said, though must disagree on Corbyn. Corbyn is as incompetent and as unpleasant as BoZo only even more stupid. My mother used to say that you can judge someone by the company they keep. Neither party leader comes out of that test well.
I do think if the opposition collude to prevent a GE until after 31st October Boris has the perfect response.
A remainer HOC colluded with the EU to prevent Brexit
give me a majority and we will leave
It doesn't work. He said 31 October, "do or die". Since he won't have died, he's obviously done.
If Johnson can't get an election before 31st then he might as well either not bother at all (Do not forget FTPA).
The date will not be based on FTPA. They will take the simple majority "Not withstanding FTPA 2011..." route, in which the date of the election can be set and cannot be ignored [ unless amended later, of course ].
I don't think there is time for that any more since that is a bill and would require votes in the Commons and Lords, and RA.
Why do you say that? If they can railroad a revolutionary adoption of SO24 to force a money bill through the commons in hours, with the lords and royal assent in another 48hours, should be easy for a one-line general election motion?
Don't forget also that the proroguing statement said: "It is this day ordered by Her Majesty in Council that the Parliament be prorogued on a day no earlier than Monday the 9th day of September and no later than Thursday the 12th day of September 2019".
I have to say I found that part of the statement curious at the time but perhaps Cummings has more smarts and foresight than the masses here want to acknowledge.
Can they railroad two through Parliament simultaneously?
My better half, who doesn't share my obsession with the details of all this, is exactly where Cyclefree describes. She did not make her mind up to vote leave until the Monday of the week with the vote. She was genuinely unsure and frankly didn't feel strongly about it one way or another but she thinks you should always use your vote.
Now she is genuinely angry and frustrated at a political class who won't do what they were told and seem to want to drag this out interminably. She is at the point (as I suspect many are) where she is not listening at all to anything any of them are saying, she just wants this done. Many others I have spoken to on both sides of the argument have said something similar. A further extension is a terrible idea, even if in some peoples eyes that still makes it better than the alternatives.
We need a deal and we need it now. Boris will hopefully come back from the meeting in Brussels in October with a deal critics will say is very like what May had. If Parliament rejects it I honestly fear for the stability of our nation.
Lotd of people appear frustrated and just want an end to it all, then reject anything suggests to end it. We are not as frustrated by it and want it to end as much as we think.
As usual there seems to be a lot of short term tactical thinking going on, and very little thinking beyond a very short term horizon. What this bill does, at most, is allow an extension for 3 months. The calls to delay an election beyond Oct 31st are based on an assumption that this will be bad for the Conservatives, but it doesn’t necessarily follow that this is good for the Remain opposition.
It maybe that it would be better fighting an election knowing that only a decisive Johnson victory will deliver no deal, than post Oct 31st when the Brexit party comes into the picture in a big way.
And if Johnson isn’t given an election on Oct 15th, isn’t it quite likely that he will try to go long and not have an election at all? With the possibility that he might actually get some sort of deal through...
Does the opposition have the votes for a post Oct 31st election if the Govt decides it doesn’t want one?
Yes via a VoNC which they now have the numbers for if needs must.
Shows Tories up another point (to 35). And Brexit down to 11%: lower than UKIP throughout the 2015 pre-election period.
Which Farage's world-beating electoral incompetence turned into zero seats.
In all the bluster about Cummings' and Johnson's manifest incompetence, it's easy to forget that they're still outclassed in the "Greatest Political Tosser Ever" stakes by Farage.
Johnson's done more for the Remain cause in the past six weeks than his predecessors managed in years of office. Has anyone thought this may be his devillish plan?
Think of the opening sequences in "The Producers" and ask yourself this question. If Max Bialystock were, deep down, a Remain-sympathising politician, wouldn't he have behaved exactly like Johnson over the past six weeks?
I do think if the opposition collude to prevent a GE until after 31st October Boris has the perfect response.
A remainer HOC colluded with the EU to prevent Brexit
give me a majority and we will leave
It doesn't work. He said 31 October, "do or die". Since he won't have died, he's obviously done.
I've been thinking about this. I don't know if this resonates as much as you think it does. The only way it really hurts him is if Farage hammers him with it during an election. It's not like Labour/Lib Dems/SNP can throw it in his face, is it?
Johnson says parliament has conspired to stop Brexit. The big question is, what does he say he would do with a majority? More negotiations? My suspicion is he goes nuclear - partly to appease Farage - and says "enough, we leave with no deal on 31 January." And then we'll see who wants to stand to be a Tory MP on that promise.
Of course Nigel Farage will hammer him with it during an election. And he'll suffer a pincer movement, as everyone on all sides accuses him of being a serial liar who can't be trusted on anything. That will resonate and be at least as damaging.
Weirdly, talk in the office this morning in County Durham is that they have been enjoying watching the House of Commons last few days and that MPs should have passed May’s deal as it is ‘the best deal we’re going to get’ and ‘Boris is losing the plot’.
🤷♂️
If Cummings is banking on this as an end result, which could be suggested by his previous writings, he could be concentrating strategically more than many of us have given him credit for.
My better half, who doesn't share my obsession with the details of all this, is exactly where Cyclefree describes. She did not make her mind up to vote leave until the Monday of the week with the vote. She was genuinely unsure and frankly didn't feel strongly about it one way or another but she thinks you should always use your vote.
Now she is genuinely angry and frustrated at a political class who won't do what they were told and seem to want to drag this out interminably. She is at the point (as I suspect many are) where she is not listening at all to anything any of them are saying, she just wants this done. Many others I have spoken to on both sides of the argument have said something similar. A further extension is a terrible idea, even if in some peoples eyes that still makes it better than the alternatives.
We need a deal and we need it now. Boris will hopefully come back from the meeting in Brussels in October with a deal critics will say is very like what May had. If Parliament rejects it I honestly fear for the stability of our nation.
How can Johnson come back with a deal like May's when he has made dropping the backstop a red line and kicked out a load of MPs who voted for May's deal? He is committed to no deal now, whatever he says in public about getting a deal at the last minute, because he is insisting on something that the EU cannot agree to. Your fear for our country is wholly justified.
Boris has to bring the WDA back as amended with labour and TM before her resignation.
It is part of the no deal act (Kinnock amendment) and sponsored by 17 labour mps. Even McDonnell recognised it today on Sky suggesting it could be a compromise if the government conceded on a few issues
He cannot bring the WA back. His cabinet would not vote for it, neither would dozens of his MPs. It might get through Parliament with opposition support, but it would totally destroy the Conservative Party while turbocharging the Brexit Party. Johnson can only go for No Deal now. There are no other options.
Boris goes for a "give me the tools to get Brexit done" election.
The voters say, "sure, yeah, whatever you want - just get it bloody done man...."
Didnt TM try and do that?
She did but Parliament wasn't frustrating her then so it seemed like a lie.
Parliament is frustrating Brexit now. Big difference.
Parliament rejecting her deal 3 times wasn't frustrating Brexit????????
T May being forced to ask for an extension twice wasn't frustrating Brexit???
My better half, who doesn't share my obsession with the details of all this, is exactly where Cyclefree describes. She did not make her mind up to vote leave until the Monday of the week with the vote. She was genuinely unsure and frankly didn't feel strongly about it one way or another but she thinks you should always use your vote.
Now she is genuinely angry and frustrated at a political class who won't do what they were told and seem to want to drag this out interminably. She is at the point (as I suspect many are) where she is not listening at all to anything any of them are saying, she just wants this done. Many others I have spoken to on both sides of the argument have said something similar. A further extension is a terrible idea, even if in some peoples eyes that still makes it better than the alternatives.
We need a deal and we need it now. Boris will hopefully come back from the meeting in Brussels in October with a deal critics will say is very like what May had. If Parliament rejects it I honestly fear for the stability of our nation.
How can Johnson come back with a deal like May's when he has made dropping the backstop a red line and kicked out a load of MPs who voted for May's deal? He is committed to no deal now, whatever he says in public about getting a deal at the last minute, because he is insisting on something that the EU cannot agree to. Your fear for our country is wholly justified.
Boris has to bring the WDA back as amended with labour and TM before her resignation.
It is part of the no deal act (Kinnock amendment) and sponsored by 17 labour mps. Even McDonnell recognised it today on Sky suggesting it could be a compromise if the government conceded on a few issues
He cannot bring the WA back. His cabinet would not vote for it, neither would dozens of his MPs. It might get through Parliament with opposition support, but it would totally destroy the Conservative Party while turbocharging the Brexit Party. Johnson can only go for No Deal now. There are no other options.
Boris goes for a "give me the tools to get Brexit done" election.
The voters say, "sure, yeah, whatever you want - just get it bloody done man...."
Didnt TM try and do that?
She did but Parliament wasn't frustrating her then so it seemed like a lie.
Parliament is frustrating Brexit now. Big difference.
Parliament rejecting her deal 3 times wasn't frustrating Brexit????????
Om topic I'd agree a good elevator pitch message would be very useful, though if motivated enough people might supply their own and that will be enough. I'd give it 60 40 to Boris winning out at present.
Try this - Brexit doesn't end when we leave without a Deal. It just begins decades of us asking the EU for things and every time they can and will demand something more in exchange.
They should delay the election further. Johnson can't win a vite, can't do what he wants on Brexit, can't dissolve parliament. Leave the fool in "office" growing ever angrier making ever larger mistakes. No deal gets locked out on Monday, with the EU rightly recognising the sovereignty of the UK parliament in asking for an extension which they will grant.
Let Johnson go to the council mid October. Throw their extension back in their face, then have parliament correct him when he rises to make his statement by poi ting to the law co polling him to accept it. Johnson wanted to run down the clock, so let's run down the clock. With his hands on the tiller as his self imposed do or die deadline passes.
Only then do we have an election. When the only people left supporting the remains of the Tory party are non-members like Dom Cummings - everyone else has been expelled, repulsed, or is voting for Farage as Johnson has failed them
Truth hurts. Doesn’t feel like the backdrop to Boris’ successful campaigns.
The interesting thing about this is that in my whole life I cannot remember a PM (even including the polarising figures of Mrs Thatcher and Mr. Blair) who manage to attract such disdain and open disrespect as BoZo from parliamentarians, even those that were once of the same party. It further underlines his complete unsuitability. The big problem is that the alternative is equally as bad.
The better people know Boris, the less people like him. The reverse actually appears to be true about Corbyn.
Boris seems to be a nasty piece of work.
I agree with most of what you have said, though must disagree on Corbyn. Corbyn is as incompetent and as unpleasant as BoZo only even more stupid. My mother used to say that you can judge someone by the company they keep. Neither party leader comes out of that test well.
Truth hurts. Doesn’t feel like the backdrop to Boris’ successful campaigns.
The interesting thing about this is that in my whole life I cannot remember a PM (even including the polarising figures of Mrs Thatcher and Mr. Blair) who manage to attract such disdain and open disrespect as BoZo from parliamentarians, even those that were once of the same party. It further underlines his complete unsuitability. The big problem is that the alternative is equally as bad.
The better people know Boris, the less people like him. The reverse actually appears to be true about Corbyn.
Boris seems to be a nasty piece of work.
I agree with most of what you have said, though must disagree on Corbyn. Corbyn is as incompetent and as unpleasant as BoZo only even more stupid. My mother used to say that you can judge someone by the company they keep. Neither party leader comes out of that test well.
A know three people who know Corbyn and whilst I disagree with Corbyn on many things and feel a lot of bad stuff has been done in his name,I cannot deny that those that really know him say he is warm and have genuine affection for him.
Corbyn and McDonnell love to say things initially that is slightly not what Starmer and their mos want, so tories get excited, then change to switch to the Starmer Brexit position.
I had to turn off the parliament channel last night because I was getting so angry at the lying disingenuous tossers from the party that I once belonged to standing up and saying it was "remainers" that had frustrated Brexit. It is a FUCKING LIE! Members of the current government deliberately frustrated the WA, including the hypocrite who is currently PM. They could have had the WA, left the EU and then looked to put bells and xenophobic whistles on it afterwards, but no, they blocked it and now they lie to the electorate. They really are a disgrace.
I do think if the opposition collude to prevent a GE until after 31st October Boris has the perfect response.
A remainer HOC colluded with the EU to prevent Brexit
give me a majority and we will leave
It doesn't work. He said 31 October, "do or die". Since he won't have died, he's obviously done.
I've been thinking about this. I don't know if this resonates as much as you think it does. The only way it really hurts him is if Farage hammers him with it during an election. It's not like Labour/Lib Dems/SNP can throw it in his face, is it?
Johnson says parliament has conspired to stop Brexit. The big question is, what does he say he would do with a majority? More negotiations? My suspicion is he goes nuclear - partly to appease Farage - and says "enough, we leave with no deal on 31 January." And then we'll see who wants to stand to be a Tory MP on that promise.
Of course Nigel Farage will hammer him with it during an election. And he'll suffer a pincer movement, as everyone on all sides accuses him of being a serial liar who can't be trusted on anything. That will resonate and be at least as damaging.
I suppose Farage could argue that Boris hasn't gone far enough if Boris doesn't try to stop this bill becoming law. But at the moment I'd suggest it's Labour that Farage has in his sights.
Om topic I'd agree a good elevator pitch message would be very useful, though if motivated enough people might supply their own and that will be enough. I'd give it 60 40 to Boris winning out at present.
Try this - Brexit doesn't end when we leave without a Deal. It just begins decades of us asking the EU for things and every time they can and will demand something more in exchange.
Absolutely. The single most glaring failure of Remain has been not to counter the Tory conflation of public apathy and exhaustion with the idea that Brexit will end this, so turning apathy into support, with the idea that it won't.
I do think if the opposition collude to prevent a GE until after 31st October Boris has the perfect response.
A remainer HOC colluded with the EU to prevent Brexit
give me a majority and we will leave
It doesn't work. He said 31 October, "do or die". Since he won't have died, he's obviously done.
If Johnson can't get an election before 31st then he might as well either not bother at all (Do not forget FTPA).
The date will not be based on FTPA. They will take the simple majority "Not withstanding FTPA 2011..." route, in which the date of the election can be set and cannot be ignored [ unless amended later, of course ].
The difficulty with a government inspired simple majority motion on a general election is that amendments may be tagged on not especially to the liking of Boris's gang.
As usual there seems to be a lot of short term tactical thinking going on, and very little thinking beyond a very short term horizon. What this bill does, at most, is allow an extension for 3 months. The calls to delay an election beyond Oct 31st are based on an assumption that this will be bad for the Conservatives, but it doesn’t necessarily follow that this is good for the Remain opposition.
It maybe that it would be better fighting an election knowing that only a decisive Johnson victory will deliver no deal, than post Oct 31st when the Brexit party comes into the picture in a big way.
And if Johnson isn’t given an election on Oct 15th, isn’t it quite likely that he will try to go long and not have an election at all? With the possibility that he might actually get some sort of deal through...
Does the opposition have the votes for a post Oct 31st election if the Govt decides it doesn’t want one?
Yes via a VoNC which they now have the numbers for if needs must.
As usual there seems to be a lot of short term tactical thinking going on, and very little thinking beyond a very short term horizon. What this bill does, at most, is allow an extension for 3 months. The calls to delay an election beyond Oct 31st are based on an assumption that this will be bad for the Conservatives, but it doesn’t necessarily follow that this is good for the Remain opposition.
It maybe that it would be better fighting an election knowing that only a decisive Johnson victory will deliver no deal, than post Oct 31st when the Brexit party comes into the picture in a big way.
And if Johnson isn’t given an election on Oct 15th, isn’t it quite likely that he will try to go long and not have an election at all? With the possibility that he might actually get some sort of deal through...
Does the opposition have the votes for a post Oct 31st election if the Govt decides it doesn’t want one?
Yes via a VoNC which they now have the numbers for if needs must.
What is the motivation for the dewhipped Tories to support a VoNC? They no longer need it to avert no deal.
Oh I misread that at first, I thought you said Boris will be done in five days time #yesterdays man. Maybe not 5 days, but perhaps just a few more. I thought that at last you had come around to reality.
Morning all and what a farce yesterday was. A people v MPs election is clearly coming. Boris now needs to press the "nuclear option" and advise the HoC he will either ignore the Surrender Act when it receives Royal Assent or alternatively he will ask the EU for an extension to A50 and then exercise his veto to stop it.
With the possible exception of Scotland, voters have to decide in a GE which is more important to them 1) stopping Brexit by not voting Tory 2) risking Corbyn PM taxing them out of their overpriced homes and over extended personal debt in the leafy suburbs by not voting Tory.
Clearly there is a growing group of Labour MPs in Brexit supporting seats who can see this not ending well for them. Boris is out and about today campaigning, Corbyn is sitting in Westminster wringing his hands like Pontius Pilate.
Many Tory/LibDem marginals are in prosperous areas. Can these voters really afford to risk a Corbyn government. Jo Swinson is likely to have seen her kids leave school and go to University before we see a Liberal become PM again.
Of all the rubbish that is sometimes posted here one of the most enduring and rubbishy is the idea that there can be a situation of 'People vs MP's (or Parliament)'.
MP's are not some breed apart; they are people; we voted for them and if we knew what we we were doing when we voted to Leave (questionable) then we knew what we were doing when we elected representatives, ..... representatives, not delegates.
The last 3 years have dangerously discredited the idea of representative democracy by trashing respect for those representatives.
52% voted leave, only about 25% of our elected representatives supported that at the time, and they have proven that most of them as representatives could not be trusted to implement that decision of the people they purport to represent. The question that people are asking is what were they doing when they elected those representatives. There is a lot of anger at that, and even more that those same representatives are denying the people a chance to change the people whom they choose to represent them.
I see that last night many of those who would have habitually described the HoL as an obstructive anachronism that should be taken out and shot were gleefully touching themselves at the magnificent spectacle of the HoL being obstructively anachronistic in service of their particular cause. It's nice to see there are some remaining traditions in British politics.
Comments
You each have your own opinions, which are... opinions.
Boris was sacked by the Times for lying.
Boris was sacked by the Tories for lying.
Having an affair with an underling and pressurising her to have 2 abortions can be kept for the female audience.
Leavers have been gaslighted. They no longer understand what the words "leave" and "European Union" mean even as they all angrily quote said words off the ballot paper to justify no deal. An exit to EFTA/EEA would be seen as a massive betrayal - apparently the EEA is the EU in gaslight land, and I'm absolutely sure that EFTA would also be the EU were it seriously considered.
There was a report on the BBC this morning that the SNP might cooperate with Johnson to agree an election before the 31st, but I haven't seen it elsewhere, and I can't see the logic.
Anyone else know anything about this ?
So, it will probably be 6th November. Labour would be mad to hold the election before 31st October - do or die !
You can’t believe a single promise the man makes.
"And also @CD13 it is in Islington, Brighton, and Cambridge where house prices are out of reach of anyone on a normal salary."
Middle-class angst. They are being made to live in an area where house prices are high. The horror! Those lucky people where a terraced house can had for £60k are rolling in it, by comparison.
Even better, I can buy a pint of bitter for £2 - even cheaper if I go to Wetherspoons. The sympathy for those poor people whose houses are expensive is overwhelming.
Anyway, that's enough of the Four Yorkshiremen.
Boris was sacked by the Tories for lying.
Now it's your turn to sack Boris"
Although 1st November would be an equally useful choice and even more trolling choice.
It might look very different in the aftermath of an election, but I don't see how parties seeking to differentiate themselves come anywhere near conspiring it before one.
I might be the least objected to compromise (at some point), but it is the first choice of a relatively small minority.
May was a Tory and while being misguided in their view was at least trying honestly and diligently to get things done. She got a hearing.
Boris they cannot abide and he will face a wall of noise and derision until he leaves office.
Meanwhile everyone else sat together and having worked out the flaws in their plans came up with an approach that would work.
Obvious to everyone, he thinks they're fools.
Political parties are composed of fallible individuals. It matters less where they have come from than where they are going.
Lee will be obliged to follow party policy.
And the point about the Lib Dems accepting Tory or Labour refugees is that a party of the centre wishing to be a broad church has to accept a diversity of opinion within the party (something the two 'major' parties seem to have abandoned), while maintaining the party's overarching principles.
Will it be easy ?
Likely not - but it is a goal worth pursuing.
Boris seems to be a nasty piece of work.
Parliament is frustrating Brexit now. Big difference.
Johnson says parliament has conspired to stop Brexit. The big question is, what does he say he would do with a majority? More negotiations? My suspicion is he goes nuclear - partly to appease Farage - and says "enough, we leave with no deal on 31 January." And then we'll see who wants to stand to be a Tory MP on that promise.
If there was an election before 31st October, and the Tories win, he can repeal the Act and go No Deal.
Don't forget also that the proroguing statement said: "It is this day ordered by Her Majesty in Council that the Parliament be prorogued on a day no earlier than Monday the 9th day of September and no later than Thursday the 12th day of September 2019".
I have to say I found that part of the statement curious at the time but perhaps Cummings has more smarts and foresight than the masses here want to acknowledge.
🤷♂️
It maybe that it would be better fighting an election knowing that only a decisive Johnson victory will deliver no deal, than post Oct 31st when the Brexit party comes into the picture in a big way.
And if Johnson isn’t given an election on Oct 15th, isn’t it quite likely that he will try to go long and not have an election at all? With the possibility that he might actually get some sort of deal through...
Does the opposition have the votes for a post Oct 31st election if the Govt decides it doesn’t want one?
Shows Tories up another point (to 35). And Brexit down to 11%: lower than UKIP throughout the 2015 pre-election period.
Which Farage's world-beating electoral incompetence turned into zero seats.
In all the bluster about Cummings' and Johnson's manifest incompetence, it's easy to forget that they're still outclassed in the "Greatest Political Tosser Ever" stakes by Farage.
Johnson's done more for the Remain cause in the past six weeks than his predecessors managed in years of office. Has anyone thought this may be his devillish plan?
Think of the opening sequences in "The Producers" and ask yourself this question. If Max Bialystock were, deep down, a Remain-sympathising politician, wouldn't he have behaved exactly like Johnson over the past six weeks?
T May being forced to ask for an extension twice wasn't frustrating Brexit???
#YesterdaysMan
Let Johnson go to the council mid October. Throw their extension back in their face, then have parliament correct him when he rises to make his statement by poi ting to the law co polling him to accept it. Johnson wanted to run down the clock, so let's run down the clock. With his hands on the tiller as his self imposed do or die deadline passes.
Only then do we have an election. When the only people left supporting the remains of the Tory party are non-members like Dom Cummings - everyone else has been expelled, repulsed, or is voting for Farage as Johnson has failed them
Inconceivable!
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ministers-taken-aback-by-predicted-scale-of-no-deal-brexit-damage-1.4008114
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1169015172167610370
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1169282914007359488
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1169320016669491201
I suppose Farage could argue that Boris hasn't gone far enough if Boris doesn't try to stop this bill becoming law. But at the moment I'd suggest it's Labour that Farage has in his sights.
https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/1169516531597885440?s=20
https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/1169516649944408065?s=20
52% voted leave, only about 25% of our elected representatives supported that at the time, and they have proven that most of them as representatives could not be trusted to implement that decision of the people they purport to represent. The question that people are asking is what were they doing when they elected those representatives. There is a lot of anger at that, and even more that those same representatives are denying the people a chance to change the people whom they choose to represent them.