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  • Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris can simply put forward a law stating the FPTA will not apply in this instance and an election can be called for October 14th with just a simple majority and he likely will

    But wouldn't that directly conflict with the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, which didn't make any provision for a future law doing what you describe? At the very least, surely the courts would get involved to decide whether the FTPA or this new law should take precedence.
    The previous parliament cannot bind this one, he is free to amend it is if he has the votes
    Yeah, he's free to amend (or repeal) the FTPA, but that's not what's being talked about, is it?

    People are saying he'd just put forward a bill saying "notwithstanding the FTPA, an election will be held on 14/10/19", but I don't see how that would work. In that case, you'd still have the FTPA on the statute book stating that any election would be invalid without a two-thirds majority.
    The FTPA does not say that. It gives two mechanisms for calling an early general election, one of which requires a motion to get a two thirds majority. It does not say any there are no other mechanisms, nor does it say that there are any circumstances in which an election is invalid. It cannot prevent a later Act overriding it. A one clause Act setting an election date would work in my view and would only need a simple majority.
    It would also need to get through the Lords, and in a great hurry. Why do people keep forgetting that bit?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    edited September 2019
    I am still a layer of both a no deal exit and a 2019 GE (although the latter is looking the more shaky position and I have also been laying 2022 as insurance). The point about no deal never being able to be so bad as to deter the EU but so manageable as to not damage the UK was one I made during the Tory leadership campaign. Especially since the EU, and the principally affected countries of France, Holland and Ireland, have done more to prepare than we have.
  • Mr. Nabavi, it's almost as if the PM's a damned silly fool.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I don't want to moan but do we need all this WW2 stuff?

    Blair's speech yesterday was interesting - though as I mentioned before there was one enormous gaffe about train travelling times to Paris and Newcastle.

    However there were a few things unanswered.

    1) He said no deal would not be the end but just the beginning. Perhaps but what about revoke? Does he seriously believe that will settle things either even if there is a 'People's Vote'? What future inside the EU are they offering?

    2) He touched on how Brexit reflected a wider cultural cleavage. This was welcome but again what is to be done about this? How can we avoid moving to the more identity-based tribal politics of Northern Ireland? Or did he think what was needed was for one side to 'win' over the other?

    3) Elites versus the people. He rightly pointed out the dangers of the people versus parliament argument and how the referendum had contributed to this but he didn't seem to realise that the referendum result, in fact the mere holding of the referendum, was a symptom of political breakdown. Declining turnouts and perverse results through FPTP are not helping parliament's legitimacy. There is also the issue of corruption. A sense that politics is bought by vested interests, that MPs discreetly feather their own nests and are too close to powerful figures in the world of commerce and finance whom they are supposed to be regulating. Also a quite correct sense that this is all being facilitated by the increasingly open world we live in. Too many seem comforted by the idea that it's all about inequality, that some people feel (wrongly?) that they are losing out whilst the selected few do ostentatiously well. Actually many believe that the system itself is rotten.

    That is a very interesting post. Worthy of a header, perhaps?
    It is.
    I don’t agree with all of it - particularly the third point, which I think something of a caricature - but I’d enjoy debating it outside of the usual Brexit nonsense.
    I forecast youll get 6 posts in and then the usual Brexit nonsense will kick off.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    Scott_P said:
    Williamson to go through the budgets.

    For every school.

    Line.

    By.

    Line.

    By.

    Line.

    By.

    Line........
  • Betting on next prime minister -- if Oddschecker is to be believed, at least two major bookmakers have taken down their markets. I am too busy to check but it seems plausible.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Mr. Nabavi, it's almost as if the PM's a damned silly fool.

    fortunately he has 649 companions
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152

    HYUFD said:

    @HYUFD do you think Boris will go into a GE campaign promising ‘No Deal’ at all costs? If not, prepare to be cannibalised by the Brexit Party.

    He will promise as he has done to aim for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop as 52% of voters backed at the weekend with Survation at the weekend and if not agreed by October 31st then he will go to No Deal yes.

    At the moment it is Corbyn Labour being cannabalised by the LDs not the Tories being cannabalised by the Brexit Party
    Remind me which party had control of South Oxfordshire and the Vale of the White Horse before the Lib Dems took them in May. Was it:

    a) Labour
    b) the Brexit Party
    c) Jean-Claude Juncker's Merry Men
    d) the Conservatives
    In the European Parliament elections Labour lost more local authority areas to the LDs than the Tories did.

    In London the LDs came first in most local authorities
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris can simply put forward a law stating the FPTA will not apply in this instance and an election can be called for October 14th with just a simple majority and he likely will

    But wouldn't that directly conflict with the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, which didn't make any provision for a future law doing what you describe? At the very least, surely the courts would get involved to decide whether the FTPA or this new law should take precedence.
    The previous parliament cannot bind this one, he is free to amend it is if he has the votes
    Yeah, he's free to amend (or repeal) the FTPA, but that's not what's being talked about, is it?

    People are saying he'd just put forward a bill saying "notwithstanding the FTPA, an election will be held on 14/10/19", but I don't see how that would work. In that case, you'd still have the FTPA on the statute book stating that any election would be invalid without a two-thirds majority.
    The FTPA does not say that. It gives two mechanisms for calling an early general election, one of which requires a motion to get a two thirds majority. It does not say any there are no other mechanisms, nor does it say that there are any circumstances in which an election is invalid. It cannot prevent a later Act overriding it. A one clause Act setting an election date would work in my view and would only need a simple majority.
    I don’t think that interpretation stacks up. The point about an unwritten constitution is that when parts of it become written then it is no longer unwritten, and can’t become so again. We now need provisions spelling out when an election happens, and without the provisions of the FPTA being triggered the default remains the date for the next GE as set out in the Act.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    HYUFD said:

    @HYUFD do you think Boris will go into a GE campaign promising ‘No Deal’ at all costs? If not, prepare to be cannibalised by the Brexit Party.

    He will promise as he has done to aim for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop as 52% of voters backed at the weekend with Survation at the weekend and if not agreed by October 31st then he will go to No Deal yes.

    At the moment it is Corbyn Labour being cannabalised by the LDs not the Tories being cannabalised by the Brexit Party
    Remind me which party had control of South Oxfordshire and the Vale of the White Horse before the Lib Dems took them in May. Was it:

    a) Labour
    b) the Brexit Party
    c) Jean-Claude Juncker's Merry Men
    d) the Conservatives
    To be fair, South Oxfordshire was a special case. In that council, the Tory party were in open civil war, with elected representatives losing the whip and... oh
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    @HYUFD do you think Boris will go into a GE campaign promising ‘No Deal’ at all costs? If not, prepare to be cannibalised by the Brexit Party.

    He will promise as he has done to aim for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop as 52% of voters backed at the weekend with Survation at the weekend and if not agreed by October 31st then he will go to No Deal yes.

    At the moment it is Corbyn Labour being cannabalised by the LDs not the Tories being cannabalised by the Brexit Party
    Remind me which party had control of South Oxfordshire and the Vale of the White Horse before the Lib Dems took them in May. Was it:

    a) Labour
    b) the Brexit Party
    c) Jean-Claude Juncker's Merry Men
    d) the Conservatives
    In the European Parliament elections Labour lost more local authority areas to the LDs than the Tories did.
    So the conclusion is that both the Conservatives and Labour are losing votes to the Lib Dems. Right?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Byronic said:

    This is quite incendiary. The rebels are in cahoots with the lawyers of a foreign power.

    Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) Tweeted:
    4. Johnson tried to make case he thinks will get a deal but there simply isn’t much faith in that argument - one present said ‘it’s a load of ....’ - on other side another in the room said it’s clear rebels have consulted with eu lawyers


    If you want to be hyperbolic, THIS looks like the real coup.


    As well as forgetting that you were a remainer you seem to have forgotten that we are members of the EU. It isn’t, yet, a foreign power.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    I'll be relieved , if surprised, if No Deal is stopped. The problem however is what next? I do not believe there is a majority for anything constructive in Parliament. I also do not believe the country would tolerate revoke. Where is the party or person with the strategy for resolving this awful mess?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,216

    Scott_P said:
    Williamson to go through the budgets.

    For every school.
    "& For Norwich Academy we can confirm that the request from the maths department for two extra pencil sharpeners has been approved"
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Can’t believe you’re not obsessing over these tweets. Maybe it is the spartan sun sending me mad, but look at this.

    ‘Jessica Elgot (@jessicaelgot) Tweeted:
    Meeting including Margot James, Greg Clark, David Gauke, Caroline Nokes, Alistair Burt and Anne Milton.Some attempted genuine engagement with PM on negotiating deal but PM and Gove said they believe any deal is dead if bill passes & said it would only lead to referendum or revoke’

    There it is. A clear admission - and truthful, I think - that we now stand on the precipice of referendum or revoke, if the rebel bill passes.

    The Remainers won’t give up now. Their ultimate prize is within grasp. Brexit is dying.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited September 2019
    BC Sport website.
    Craig Overton will replace Chris Woakes in the England team for the fourth Ashes Test against Australia at Old Trafford, which starts on Wednesday.

    I think the selectors have got a bit over excited that a bit of pacey bounce has unsettled the convicts...when Archer was actually even more effective when he pitched it up at a slightly slower speed.

    Overton is wild and nowhere near as good with the bar as woakes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    edited September 2019

    HYUFD said:

    @HYUFD do you think Boris will go into a GE campaign promising ‘No Deal’ at all costs? If not, prepare to be cannibalised by the Brexit Party.

    He will promise as he has done to aim for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop as 52% of voters backed at the weekend with Survation at the weekend and if not agreed by October 31st then he will go to No Deal yes.

    At the moment it is Corbyn Labour being cannabalised by the LDs not the Tories being cannabalised by the Brexit Party
    But the WDA less the backstop is not on offer. And nobody seriously believes that it ever will be, whatever Johnson might say. Even if it did materialise the ERG and BXP would oppose it.
    It can be with a technical solution Macron and Merkel have not ruled out and it is the ONLY Brexit option Parliament has voted for.

    The BXP have always opposed the Withdrawal Agreement outright but the Tories still have around a 10% lead over Labour and the LDs at the moment and a 20% lead over the Brexit Party with Boris' current policy of the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop and if not then go to No Deal
  • Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris can simply put forward a law stating the FPTA will not apply in this instance and an election can be called for October 14th with just a simple majority and he likely will

    But wouldn't that directly conflict with the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, which didn't make any provision for a future law doing what you describe? At the very least, surely the courts would get involved to decide whether the FTPA or this new law should take precedence.
    The previous parliament cannot bind this one, he is free to amend it is if he has the votes
    Yeah, he's free to amend (or repeal) the FTPA, but that's not what's being talked about, is it?

    People are saying he'd just put forward a bill saying "notwithstanding the FTPA, an election will be held on 14/10/19", but I don't see how that would work. In that case, you'd still have the FTPA on the statute book stating that any election would be invalid without a two-thirds majority.
    The FTPA does not say that. It gives two mechanisms for calling an early general election, one of which requires a motion to get a two thirds majority. It does not say any there are no other mechanisms, nor does it say that there are any circumstances in which an election is invalid. It cannot prevent a later Act overriding it. A one clause Act setting an election date would work in my view and would only need a simple majority.
    It would also need to get through the Lords, and in a great hurry. Why do people keep forgetting that bit?
    Deliciously, the rogue proroguer is hoist by his own petard.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    People, rather, said that Jez is sitting pretty and would be as happy with a Tory no deal as he would be with any other Tory f**k up. The more chaos the better under the current administration. Which is fair enough for a LOTO.

    Oh and there is of course the lifelong anti-EU thing as well.

    Ah no I didn't mean those people. Indeed they include me.

    I'm talking about the conspiracy theory stuff that he has a secret masterplan to ensure that Tory No Deal.

    Anyway (top) hats off to you for talking to me about Corbyn without bringing antisemitism into it. That is a first and is much appreciated.

    And don't now spoil it! ☺
    Why on earth would I mention anti-semitism when talking about Jeremy Corbyn?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    @HYUFD do you think Boris will go into a GE campaign promising ‘No Deal’ at all costs? If not, prepare to be cannibalised by the Brexit Party.

    He will promise as he has done to aim for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop as 52% of voters backed at the weekend with Survation at the weekend and if not agreed by October 31st then he will go to No Deal yes.

    At the moment it is Corbyn Labour being cannabalised by the LDs not the Tories being cannabalised by the Brexit Party
    But the WDA less the backstop is not on offer. And nobody seriously believes that it ever will be, whatever Johnson might say. Even if it did materialise the ERG and BXP would oppose it.
    It can be with a technical solution Macron and Merkel have not ruled out and it is the ONLY Brexit option Parliament has voted for.

    The BXP have always opposed the Withdrawal Agreement outright but the Tories still have around a 10% lead over Labour and the LDs at the moment and a 20% lead over the Brexit Party with Boris' current policy
    Not this post again.
  • Byronic said:

    This is quite incendiary. The rebels are in cahoots with the lawyers of a foreign power.

    Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) Tweeted:
    4. Johnson tried to make case he thinks will get a deal but there simply isn’t much faith in that argument - one present said ‘it’s a load of ....’ - on other side another in the room said it’s clear rebels have consulted with eu lawyers


    If you want to be hyperbolic, THIS looks like the real coup.

    No, YOU want to be hyperbolic.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    IanB2 said:

    Byronic said:

    This is quite incendiary. The rebels are in cahoots with the lawyers of a foreign power.

    Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) Tweeted:
    4. Johnson tried to make case he thinks will get a deal but there simply isn’t much faith in that argument - one present said ‘it’s a load of ....’ - on other side another in the room said it’s clear rebels have consulted with eu lawyers


    If you want to be hyperbolic, THIS looks like the real coup.


    As well as forgetting that you were a remainer you seem to have forgotten that we are members of the EU. It isn’t, yet, a foreign power.
    How many Britons agree with you? 3m? The rest will see it very differently.

    Remainers are probably going to win this war. Then, I think, they will reap the whirlwind. I hope I am wrong.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    Byronic said:

    This is quite incendiary. The rebels are in cahoots with the lawyers of a foreign power.

    Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) Tweeted:
    4. Johnson tried to make case he thinks will get a deal but there simply isn’t much faith in that argument - one present said ‘it’s a load of ....’ - on other side another in the room said it’s clear rebels have consulted with eu lawyers


    If you want to be hyperbolic, THIS looks like the real coup.

    Yes, diehard Remainers are now clearly turning traitor this is 1588 all over again
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris can simply put forward a law stating the FPTA will not apply in this instance and an election can be called for October 14th with just a simple majority and he likely will

    But wouldn't that directly conflict with the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, which didn't make any provision for a future law doing what you describe? At the very least, surely the courts would get involved to decide whether the FTPA or this new law should take precedence.
    The previous parliament cannot bind this one, he is free to amend it is if he has the votes
    Yeah, he's free to amend (or repeal) the FTPA, but that's not what's being talked about, is it?

    People are saying he'd just put forward a bill saying "notwithstanding the FTPA, an election will be held on 14/10/19", but I don't see how that would work. In that case, you'd still have the FTPA on the statute book stating that any election would be invalid without a two-thirds majority.
    I'm not sure of the mechanics but it seems to be a 'thing'
    NAL let alone a parliamentary draughtsperson, but I should have thought that there’s
    no reason why Parliament couldn't pass an act amending the FPTA to say that a) here’s a new mechanism for calling an election (i.e. the PM says he wants one), and b) it comes into force on assent and expires a week later
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,900
    HYUFD said:

    Parliament is sovereign and can repeal and amend any previous law at will by simple majority as we do not have a written constitution

    MPs are representatives not delegates. The 23/6/16 referendum was created and held on the vacuous premise MPs would have to abide by the result. There is no mechanism that compels them so to do - indeed, none other than Winston Churchill (a man I'm sure you admire) argued that.

    If an MP in a pro-Leave constituency thinks crashing out without a Deal is not in the best interests of their constituency, that's for their conscience. A voter can lobby their MP and argue differently but that's all they can do until the next election.

  • Cyclefree said:

    ... And you can then all debate The No Chocolate in Coffee Bill to your heart’s content...... :) ).

    No choc-dust on my cappuccinnoo?

    :open_mouth:

    Well - you've lost my vote.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    This is quite incendiary. The rebels are in cahoots with the lawyers of a foreign power.

    Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) Tweeted:
    4. Johnson tried to make case he thinks will get a deal but there simply isn’t much faith in that argument - one present said ‘it’s a load of ....’ - on other side another in the room said it’s clear rebels have consulted with eu lawyers


    If you want to be hyperbolic, THIS looks like the real coup.

    Yes, diehard Remainers are now clearly turning traitor this is 1588 all over again
    :D

    I’m a citizen of both the EU and the UK. How can I be a traitor?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    @HYUFD do you think Boris will go into a GE campaign promising ‘No Deal’ at all costs? If not, prepare to be cannibalised by the Brexit Party.

    He will promise as he has done to aim for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop as 52% of voters backed at the weekend with Survation at the weekend and if not agreed by October 31st then he will go to No Deal yes.

    At the moment it is Corbyn Labour being cannabalised by the LDs not the Tories being cannabalised by the Brexit Party
    Remind me which party had control of South Oxfordshire and the Vale of the White Horse before the Lib Dems took them in May. Was it:

    a) Labour
    b) the Brexit Party
    c) Jean-Claude Juncker's Merry Men
    d) the Conservatives
    In the European Parliament elections Labour lost more local authority areas to the LDs than the Tories did.
    So the conclusion is that both the Conservatives and Labour are losing votes to the Lib Dems. Right?
    The conclusion is most Remainers are now voting LD and most Leavers are now voting Tory in the latest polls
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Byronic said:

    Maybe it is the spartan sun sending me mad

    Remember to drink some water today.

  • TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    People, rather, said that Jez is sitting pretty and would be as happy with a Tory no deal as he would be with any other Tory f**k up. The more chaos the better under the current administration. Which is fair enough for a LOTO.

    Oh and there is of course the lifelong anti-EU thing as well.

    Ah no I didn't mean those people. Indeed they include me.

    I'm talking about the conspiracy theory stuff that he has a secret masterplan to ensure that Tory No Deal.

    Anyway (top) hats off to you for talking to me about Corbyn without bringing antisemitism into it. That is a first and is much appreciated.

    And don't now spoil it! ☺
    Why on earth would I mention anti-semitism when talking about Jeremy Corbyn?
    When will Boris launch the promised enquiry into racism in the Conservative Party? It is not as if there is much else going on. Boris is even giving MPs extra holidays because it is so quiet.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    I'm looking forward to the betting opportunities of the upcoming GE. Cooper booted out of Pontefract is top of my deliciousness list
  • IanB2 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris can simply put forward a law stating the FPTA will not apply in this instance and an election can be called for October 14th with just a simple majority and he likely will

    But wouldn't that directly conflict with the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, which didn't make any provision for a future law doing what you describe? At the very least, surely the courts would get involved to decide whether the FTPA or this new law should take precedence.
    The previous parliament cannot bind this one, he is free to amend it is if he has the votes
    Yeah, he's free to amend (or repeal) the FTPA, but that's not what's being talked about, is it?

    People are saying he'd just put forward a bill saying "notwithstanding the FTPA, an election will be held on 14/10/19", but I don't see how that would work. In that case, you'd still have the FTPA on the statute book stating that any election would be invalid without a two-thirds majority.
    The FTPA does not say that. It gives two mechanisms for calling an early general election, one of which requires a motion to get a two thirds majority. It does not say any there are no other mechanisms, nor does it say that there are any circumstances in which an election is invalid. It cannot prevent a later Act overriding it. A one clause Act setting an election date would work in my view and would only need a simple majority.
    I don’t think that interpretation stacks up. The point about an unwritten constitution is that when parts of it become written then it is no longer unwritten, and can’t become so again. We now need provisions spelling out when an election happens, and without the provisions of the FPTA being triggered the default remains the date for the next GE as set out in the Act.
    What part of it doesn't stack up?

    Parliament can alter or repeal any previous Act of Parliament. That is a fundamental part of the way our system works. So there really is no problem with a bill overriding the FTPA to set a new date for the next election - apart, of course, from getting it through both Houses of Parliament. It would need a simple majority in both houses. And I wasn't really ignoring that, Mr Nabavi, just concentrating on answering the suggestion that new legislation couldn't override the FTPA.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    @HYUFD do you think Boris will go into a GE campaign promising ‘No Deal’ at all costs? If not, prepare to be cannibalised by the Brexit Party.

    He will promise as he has done to aim for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop as 52% of voters backed at the weekend with Survation at the weekend and if not agreed by October 31st then he will go to No Deal yes.

    At the moment it is Corbyn Labour being cannabalised by the LDs not the Tories being cannabalised by the Brexit Party
    But the WDA less the backstop is not on offer. And nobody seriously believes that it ever will be, whatever Johnson might say. Even if it did materialise the ERG and BXP would oppose it.
    It can be with a technical solution Macron and Merkel have not ruled out and it is the ONLY Brexit option Parliament has voted for.

    The BXP have always opposed the Withdrawal Agreement outright but the Tories still have around a 10% lead over Labour and the LDs at the moment and a 20% lead over the Brexit Party with Boris' current policy
    Not this post again.
    Could we make this into a game of Brexit Bingo, I wonder?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152

    I'm looking forward to the betting opportunities of the upcoming GE. Cooper booted out of Pontefract is top of my deliciousness list

    Could happen if the Tories stand down and give the Brexit Party a free run, the Brexit Party won the area in the European Parliament elections
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris can simply put forward a law stating the FPTA will not apply in this instance and an election can be called for October 14th with just a simple majority and he likely will

    You are forgetting the Lords.
    Boris is going to pack the Lords with pro Brexit peers
    Is this before or after we send troops into Scotland and have the NI referendum? It might help readers if you could sort your firm predictions into some sort of order?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    HYUFD said:

    I'm looking forward to the betting opportunities of the upcoming GE. Cooper booted out of Pontefract is top of my deliciousness list

    Could happen if the Tories stand down and give the Brexit Party a free run, the Brexit Party won the area in the European Parliament elections
    I dont think Labour have the faintest idea how much trouble they are in up north
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    This is quite incendiary. The rebels are in cahoots with the lawyers of a foreign power.

    Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) Tweeted:
    4. Johnson tried to make case he thinks will get a deal but there simply isn’t much faith in that argument - one present said ‘it’s a load of ....’ - on other side another in the room said it’s clear rebels have consulted with eu lawyers


    If you want to be hyperbolic, THIS looks like the real coup.

    Yes, diehard Remainers are now clearly turning traitor this is 1588 all over again
    As I said this morning we all appreciate that it is quite a shock for you and will need some reconciling that your previous preferred party, the Conservative Party, is now pursuing a policy with which you vehemently disagree. But not to worry, there are plenty of other parties around. Perhaps form one yourself?

    Because one thing's for sure, as a man of honour you couldn't possibly support a party whose flagship policy is one which you despise and have registered your disapproval of at the ballot box. Nor, as a steadfast champion of the Conservatives when they were a different, more reasonable party, do I think you could have changed your previously sincerely held political opinions and jettisoned your moral code.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    HYUFD said:
    The Tory Grandees are joining the fight. This could be the beginning of the end of Brexit.

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Scott_P said:
    Williamson to go through the budgets.

    For every school.

    Line.

    By.

    Line.

    By.

    Line.

    By.

    Line........
    If you're trying to wind people up, you need to say something damn sight sillier than that. You must allow for the "Brexit Troll Inflation" effect ;-)
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    HYUFD said:

    I'm looking forward to the betting opportunities of the upcoming GE. Cooper booted out of Pontefract is top of my deliciousness list

    Could happen if the Tories stand down and give the Brexit Party a free run, the Brexit Party won the area in the European Parliament elections
    If Brexit dies, Farage will shoulder a fair portion of the blame. His decision to carry on harrying the Tories, even Boris, as they genuinely tried to Brexit, has weakened them at a crucial time.

    Farage got high on his own supply. His downfall may be sudden and harsh.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    HYUFD said:

    I'm looking forward to the betting opportunities of the upcoming GE. Cooper booted out of Pontefract is top of my deliciousness list

    Could happen if the Tories stand down and give the Brexit Party a free run, the Brexit Party won the area in the European Parliament elections
    I dont think Labour have the faintest idea how much trouble they are in up north
    Labour will hold almost all of their Northern seats in my opinion.

    Do you even live in the North?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    IanB2 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris can simply put forward a law stating the FPTA will not apply in this instance and an election can be called for October 14th with just a simple majority and he likely will

    But wouldn't that directly conflict with the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, which didn't make any provision for a future law doing what you describe? At the very least, surely the courts would get involved to decide whether the FTPA or this new law should take precedence.
    The previous parliament cannot bind this one, he is free to amend it is if he has the votes
    Yeah, he's free to amend (or repeal) the FTPA, but that's not what's being talked about, is it?

    People are saying he'd just put forward a bill saying "notwithstanding the FTPA, an election will be held on 14/10/19", but I don't see how that would work. In that case, you'd still have the FTPA on the statute book stating that any election would be invalid without a two-thirds majority.
    The FTPA does not say that. It gives two mechanisms for calling an early general election, one of which requires a motion to get a two thirds majority. It does not say any there are no other mechanisms, nor does it say that there are any circumstances in which an election is invalid. It cannot prevent a later Act overriding it. A one clause Act setting an election date would work in my view and would only need a simple majority.
    I don’t think that interpretation stacks up. The point about an unwritten constitution is that when parts of it become written then it is no longer unwritten, and can’t become so again. We now need provisions spelling out when an election happens, and without the provisions of the FPTA being triggered the default remains the date for the next GE as set out in the Act.
    What part of it doesn't stack up?

    Parliament can alter or repeal any previous Act of Parliament. That is a fundamental part of the way our system works. So there really is no problem with a bill overriding the FTPA to set a new date for the next election - apart, of course, from getting it through both Houses of Parliament. It would need a simple majority in both houses. And I wasn't really ignoring that, Mr Nabavi, just concentrating on answering the suggestion that new legislation couldn't override the FTPA.
    My understanding is that you can’t just return to how things were before. Transferring powers from the conventional application of royal prerogative to a decision of parliament is a one way street.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Team Boris seem quite happy to let the remainers and Labour preen about all day shouting about delaying Brexit.

    And the rest of the week shouting about how they will block a GE.

    Meanwhile the govt doesn’t interrupt them...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    People, rather, said that Jez is sitting pretty and would be as happy with a Tory no deal as he would be with any other Tory f**k up. The more chaos the better under the current administration. Which is fair enough for a LOTO.

    Oh and there is of course the lifelong anti-EU thing as well.

    Ah no I didn't mean those people. Indeed they include me.

    I'm talking about the conspiracy theory stuff that he has a secret masterplan to ensure that Tory No Deal.

    Anyway (top) hats off to you for talking to me about Corbyn without bringing antisemitism into it. That is a first and is much appreciated.

    And don't now spoil it! ☺
    Why on earth would I mention anti-semitism when talking about Jeremy Corbyn?
    When will Boris launch the promised enquiry into racism in the Conservative Party? It is not as if there is much else going on. Boris is even giving MPs extra holidays because it is so quiet.
    Why did Arsenal sell Mikatarian? All good questions. Nothing to do with my post.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Another one for @HYUFD’s list of predictions:

    The Tories will stand aside for the Brexit Party in Pontefract.
  • HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    This is quite incendiary. The rebels are in cahoots with the lawyers of a foreign power.

    Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) Tweeted:
    4. Johnson tried to make case he thinks will get a deal but there simply isn’t much faith in that argument - one present said ‘it’s a load of ....’ - on other side another in the room said it’s clear rebels have consulted with eu lawyers


    If you want to be hyperbolic, THIS looks like the real coup.

    Yes, diehard Remainers are now clearly turning traitor this is 1588 all over again
    :D

    I’m a citizen of both the EU and the UK. How can I be a traitor?
    At some point you are going to have to choose one or the other. (Not that that would make you a traitor)
  • HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    This is quite incendiary. The rebels are in cahoots with the lawyers of a foreign power.

    Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) Tweeted:
    4. Johnson tried to make case he thinks will get a deal but there simply isn’t much faith in that argument - one present said ‘it’s a load of ....’ - on other side another in the room said it’s clear rebels have consulted with eu lawyers


    If you want to be hyperbolic, THIS looks like the real coup.

    Yes, diehard Remainers are now clearly turning traitor this is 1588 all over again
    Oh, you don't need to go back as far as 1588. As recently as last year traitorous MPs were trying to conduct parallel negotiations with the enemy:

    https://www.politico.eu/article/jacob-rees-mogg-michel-barnier-and-i-agree-may-plan-wont-fly/
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    HYUFD said:

    I'm looking forward to the betting opportunities of the upcoming GE. Cooper booted out of Pontefract is top of my deliciousness list

    Could happen if the Tories stand down and give the Brexit Party a free run, the Brexit Party won the area in the European Parliament elections
    I dont think Labour have the faintest idea how much trouble they are in up north
    Labour will hold almost all of their Northern seats in my opinion.

    Do you even live in the North?
    What's that got to do with anything? There is communication between the north and the rest of the UK.
    And in my opinion, you are wrong.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Byronic said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'm looking forward to the betting opportunities of the upcoming GE. Cooper booted out of Pontefract is top of my deliciousness list

    Could happen if the Tories stand down and give the Brexit Party a free run, the Brexit Party won the area in the European Parliament elections
    If Brexit dies, Farage will shoulder a fair portion of the blame. His decision to carry on harrying the Tories, even Boris, as they genuinely tried to Brexit, has weakened them at a crucial time.

    Farage got high on his own supply. His downfall may be sudden and harsh.
    His tactics during any pre Brexit referendum will be very interesting.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Byronic said:

    This is quite incendiary. The rebels are in cahoots with the lawyers of a foreign power.

    Indeed. There is only one course of action now!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3BO6GP9NMY
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Byronic said:

    IanB2 said:

    Byronic said:

    This is quite incendiary. The rebels are in cahoots with the lawyers of a foreign power.

    Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) Tweeted:
    4. Johnson tried to make case he thinks will get a deal but there simply isn’t much faith in that argument - one present said ‘it’s a load of ....’ - on other side another in the room said it’s clear rebels have consulted with eu lawyers


    If you want to be hyperbolic, THIS looks like the real coup.


    As well as forgetting that you were a remainer you seem to have forgotten that we are members of the EU. It isn’t, yet, a foreign power.
    How many Britons agree with you? 3m? The rest will see it very differently.

    Remainers are probably going to win this war. Then, I think, they will reap the whirlwind. I hope I am wrong.

    If Bozo wins the whirlwind would be worse, since the political damage would be multiplied up by the real world economic damage. There are no pain free options any more and some sort of whirlwind looks pretty much inevitable. I’d go for the one that doesn’t sacrifice jobs and livelihoods.
  • Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris can simply put forward a law stating the FPTA will not apply in this instance and an election can be called for October 14th with just a simple majority and he likely will

    But wouldn't that directly conflict with the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, which didn't make any provision for a future law doing what you describe? At the very least, surely the courts would get involved to decide whether the FTPA or this new law should take precedence.
    The previous parliament cannot bind this one, he is free to amend it is if he has the votes
    Yeah, he's free to amend (or repeal) the FTPA, but that's not what's being talked about, is it?

    People are saying he'd just put forward a bill saying "notwithstanding the FTPA, an election will be held on 14/10/19", but I don't see how that would work. In that case, you'd still have the FTPA on the statute book stating that any election would be invalid without a two-thirds majority.
    The FTPA does not say that. It gives two mechanisms for calling an early general election, one of which requires a motion to get a two thirds majority. It does not say any there are no other mechanisms, nor does it say that there are any circumstances in which an election is invalid. It cannot prevent a later Act overriding it. A one clause Act setting an election date would work in my view and would only need a simple majority.
    It would also need to get through the Lords, and in a great hurry. Why do people keep forgetting that bit?
    Johnson has looked the country in the eye and told us that he doesn't want an election. He'd look a bit damned silly changing the law to force one through.
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris can simply put forward a law stating the FPTA will not apply in this instance and an election can be called for October 14th with just a simple majority and he likely will

    You are forgetting the Lords.
    Boris is going to pack the Lords with pro Brexit peers
    I look forward to Lord HYUFD. Will you change your handle on pb.com?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    @HYUFD do you think Boris will go into a GE campaign promising ‘No Deal’ at all costs? If not, prepare to be cannibalised by the Brexit Party.

    He will promise as he has done to aim for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop as 52% of voters backed at the weekend with Survation at the weekend and if not agreed by October 31st then he will go to No Deal yes.

    At the moment it is Corbyn Labour being cannabalised by the LDs not the Tories being cannabalised by the Brexit Party
    Remind me which party had control of South Oxfordshire and the Vale of the White Horse before the Lib Dems took them in May. Was it:

    a) Labour
    b) the Brexit Party
    c) Jean-Claude Juncker's Merry Men
    d) the Conservatives
    In the European Parliament elections Labour lost more local authority areas to the LDs than the Tories did.
    So the conclusion is that both the Conservatives and Labour are losing votes to the Lib Dems. Right?
    The conclusion is most Remainers are now voting LD and most Leavers are now voting Tory in the latest polls
    We're not quite in that place. Lib Dems are snapping at Labour heels but (Euro elections aside) we've not yet had crossover. And Greens also doing well. What needs to worry Tories is that either you get a semi-formal Remain alliance, or Lib Dems emerge more clearly as the Remain choice. Then that "lead" (which is a lead on an historically small projected vote share, remember) melts away very suddenly in the heat of a campaign.

    I'd also note that Remainers coalescing around the Lib Dems and Leavers around Conservatives means the Tories losing a fair bit to the Lib Dems as evidenced at local level in elections in May and June, when Lib Dems were picking up strongly in areas with no serious Labour vote as well as those where Labour is a factor.
  • IanB2 said:


    What part of it doesn't stack up?

    Parliament can alter or repeal any previous Act of Parliament. That is a fundamental part of the way our system works. So there really is no problem with a bill overriding the FTPA to set a new date for the next election - apart, of course, from getting it through both Houses of Parliament. It would need a simple majority in both houses. And I wasn't really ignoring that, Mr Nabavi, just concentrating on answering the suggestion that new legislation couldn't override the FTPA.

    My understanding is that you can’t just return to how things were before. Transferring powers from the conventional application of royal prerogative to a decision of parliament is a one way street.
    The FTPA itself requires a review next year to look at whether it should be repealed. It therefore clearly envisages a possible return to the status quo ante as that is what would happen if it is repealed.

    However, we aren't talking about that. We are talking about parliament passing a bill to set a different date for the next election than the one currently laid down by the FTPA. That keeps the decision very firmly in parliament's hands.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    This is quite incendiary. The rebels are in cahoots with the lawyers of a foreign power.

    Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) Tweeted:
    4. Johnson tried to make case he thinks will get a deal but there simply isn’t much faith in that argument - one present said ‘it’s a load of ....’ - on other side another in the room said it’s clear rebels have consulted with eu lawyers


    If you want to be hyperbolic, THIS looks like the real coup.

    Yes, diehard Remainers are now clearly turning traitor this is 1588 all over again
    :D

    I’m a citizen of both the EU and the UK. How can I be a traitor?
    At some point you are going to have to choose one or the other. (Not that that would make you a traitor)
    I wont get a choice. One will be taken away from me.
  • HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    This is quite incendiary. The rebels are in cahoots with the lawyers of a foreign power.

    Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) Tweeted:
    4. Johnson tried to make case he thinks will get a deal but there simply isn’t much faith in that argument - one present said ‘it’s a load of ....’ - on other side another in the room said it’s clear rebels have consulted with eu lawyers


    If you want to be hyperbolic, THIS looks like the real coup.

    Yes, diehard Remainers are now clearly turning traitor this is 1588 all over again
    I'd really, really love to think that you've a very dry, self parodying sense of humour, but I fear that you've got those roasters whose political consciousness starts with 1690 knocked into a cocked tricorn hat.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    HYUFD said:
    The Tory Grandees are joining the fight. This could be the beginning of the end of Brexit.

    IF they go through with the expulsions, don't underestimate the psychic shock on longstanding colleagues.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    HYUFD said:

    I'm looking forward to the betting opportunities of the upcoming GE. Cooper booted out of Pontefract is top of my deliciousness list

    Could happen if the Tories stand down and give the Brexit Party a free run, the Brexit Party won the area in the European Parliament elections
    I dont think Labour have the faintest idea how much trouble they are in up north
    Labour will hold almost all of their Northern seats in my opinion.

    Do you even live in the North?
    What's that got to do with anything? There is communication between the north and the rest of the UK.
    And in my opinion, you are wrong.
    Northerners will be willing to vote for the Brexit Party in large numbers but not the Tories.

    The Labour majorities are too big.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Byronic said:

    Can’t believe you’re not obsessing over these tweets. Maybe it is the spartan sun sending me mad, but look at this.

    ‘Jessica Elgot (@jessicaelgot) Tweeted:
    Meeting including Margot James, Greg Clark, David Gauke, Caroline Nokes, Alistair Burt and Anne Milton.Some attempted genuine engagement with PM on negotiating deal but PM and Gove said they believe any deal is dead if bill passes & said it would only lead to referendum or revoke’

    There it is. A clear admission - and truthful, I think - that we now stand on the precipice of referendum or revoke, if the rebel bill passes.

    The Remainers won’t give up now. Their ultimate prize is within grasp. Brexit is dying.

    And you think Leavers will just give up? Why should they when they've had their vote ignored and ultimately cancelled.

    The first day after Brexit is revoked or cancelled Brexiteers will be campaigning for another referendum and to leave. I know I certainly will...

    I saw Layla Moran on Sky on Sunday and was amazed at the assumption that stopping Brexit will be the end of the matter. It may be the end of the matter in the Remainer bubble of London and Westminster but it most certainly won't be in the country as a whole.
  • TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    This is quite incendiary. The rebels are in cahoots with the lawyers of a foreign power.

    Indeed. There is only one course of action now!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3BO6GP9NMY
    Classic.

    Well done Lord Copper :D:D
  • IanB2 said:



    My understanding is that you can’t just return to how things were before. Transferring powers from the conventional application of royal prerogative to a decision of parliament is a one way street.

    Correct. The Parliamentary guidance is clear that Royal Prerogative powers can only ever be reduced not increased. The sooner we do away with them entirely the better.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited September 2019


    And where does prorogation fit in all this. Why burn all that political capital, provoke counter mobilisation, involve the monarchy, look undemocratic if just one week later you are then disolving rather than prorouging ? I just don't see a coherent narrative.

    I know the story everyone's enjoying is that there's this one ruthless advisor dude who's in charge of everything but it feels more like there are a bunch of warring advisors with different strategies and Boris is picking and choosing based on who he spoke to last. All the things they're doing make sense as part of one strategy or another, but put them together and they're all over the map.
    I thought the meta-strategy was that the prorogation was declared in order to provoke the rebels so that they could be deselected for the general election.

    A general election without deselecting the rebels first would have much less value.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    HYUFD said:

    I'm looking forward to the betting opportunities of the upcoming GE. Cooper booted out of Pontefract is top of my deliciousness list

    Could happen if the Tories stand down and give the Brexit Party a free run, the Brexit Party won the area in the European Parliament elections
    I dont think Labour have the faintest idea how much trouble they are in up north
    Labour will hold almost all of their Northern seats in my opinion.

    Do you even live in the North?
    What's that got to do with anything? There is communication between the north and the rest of the UK.
    And in my opinion, you are wrong.
    Northerners will be willing to vote for the Brexit Party in large numbers but not the Tories.

    The Labour majorities are too big.
    In a number of seats yes of course, but losing, say, 40 would be a meltdown. I'm off to look at how many labour seats have majorities under 5000
  • GIN1138 said:

    Byronic said:

    Can’t believe you’re not obsessing over these tweets. Maybe it is the spartan sun sending me mad, but look at this.

    ‘Jessica Elgot (@jessicaelgot) Tweeted:
    Meeting including Margot James, Greg Clark, David Gauke, Caroline Nokes, Alistair Burt and Anne Milton.Some attempted genuine engagement with PM on negotiating deal but PM and Gove said they believe any deal is dead if bill passes & said it would only lead to referendum or revoke’

    There it is. A clear admission - and truthful, I think - that we now stand on the precipice of referendum or revoke, if the rebel bill passes.

    The Remainers won’t give up now. Their ultimate prize is within grasp. Brexit is dying.

    And you think Leavers will just give up? Why should they when they've had their vote ignored and ultimately cancelled.

    The first day after Brexit is revoked or cancelled Brexiteers will be campaigning for another referendum and to leave. I know I certainly will...

    I saw Layla Moran on Sky on Sunday and was amazed at the assumption that stopping Brexit will be the end of the matter. It may be the end of the matter in the Remainer bubble of London and Westminster but it most certainly won't be in the country as a whole.
    A UK-wide referendum on the same basis as 2016 would be a non-starter. First you’d need to remove any obstacles caused by the union.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,508
    Scott_P said:
    That list of signatories would make a half-decent front bench for a Gnu. Interesting.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    HYUFD said:

    I'm looking forward to the betting opportunities of the upcoming GE. Cooper booted out of Pontefract is top of my deliciousness list

    Could happen if the Tories stand down and give the Brexit Party a free run, the Brexit Party won the area in the European Parliament elections
    I dont think Labour have the faintest idea how much trouble they are in up north
    Labour will hold almost all of their Northern seats in my opinion.

    Do you even live in the North?
    What's that got to do with anything? There is communication between the north and the rest of the UK.
    And in my opinion, you are wrong.
    Northerners will be willing to vote for the Brexit Party in large numbers but not the Tories.

    The Labour majorities are too big.
    In a number of seats yes of course, but losing, say, 40 would be a meltdown. I'm off to look at how many labour seats have majorities under 5000
    What are these 40 seats then?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    This is quite incendiary. The rebels are in cahoots with the lawyers of a foreign power.

    Indeed. There is only one course of action now!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3BO6GP9NMY
    “Bursting with war”. Genius. Perhaps my favorite bit of Steve Morris
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633


    And where does prorogation fit in all this. Why burn all that political capital, provoke counter mobilisation, involve the monarchy, look undemocratic if just one week later you are then disolving rather than prorouging ? I just don't see a coherent narrative.

    I know the story everyone's enjoying is that there's this one ruthless advisor dude who's in charge of everything but it feels more like there are a bunch of warring advisors with different strategies and Boris is picking and choosing based on who he spoke to last. All the things they're doing make sense as part of one strategy or another, but put them together and they're all over the map.
    I thought the meta-strategy was that the prorogation was declared in order to provoke the rebels so that they could be deselected for the general election.

    A general election without deselecting the rebels first would have much less value.
    One of Farage’s key demands to stand aside in Boris winnable seats.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,570
    edited September 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    This is quite incendiary. The rebels are in cahoots with the lawyers of a foreign power.

    Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) Tweeted:
    4. Johnson tried to make case he thinks will get a deal but there simply isn’t much faith in that argument - one present said ‘it’s a load of ....’ - on other side another in the room said it’s clear rebels have consulted with eu lawyers


    If you want to be hyperbolic, THIS looks like the real coup.

    Yes, diehard Remainers are now clearly turning traitor this is 1588 all over again
    :D

    I’m a citizen of both the EU and the UK. How can I be a traitor?
    At some point you are going to have to choose one or the other. (Not that that would make you a traitor)
    I wont get a choice. One will be taken away from me.
    You always have a choice. You could take citizenship of another EU country and so retain EU citizenship if it really matters that much to you.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited September 2019

    GIN1138 said:

    Byronic said:

    Can’t believe you’re not obsessing over these tweets. Maybe it is the spartan sun sending me mad, but look at this.

    ‘Jessica Elgot (@jessicaelgot) Tweeted:
    Meeting including Margot James, Greg Clark, David Gauke, Caroline Nokes, Alistair Burt and Anne Milton.Some attempted genuine engagement with PM on negotiating deal but PM and Gove said they believe any deal is dead if bill passes & said it would only lead to referendum or revoke’

    There it is. A clear admission - and truthful, I think - that we now stand on the precipice of referendum or revoke, if the rebel bill passes.

    The Remainers won’t give up now. Their ultimate prize is within grasp. Brexit is dying.

    And you think Leavers will just give up? Why should they when they've had their vote ignored and ultimately cancelled.

    The first day after Brexit is revoked or cancelled Brexiteers will be campaigning for another referendum and to leave. I know I certainly will...

    I saw Layla Moran on Sky on Sunday and was amazed at the assumption that stopping Brexit will be the end of the matter. It may be the end of the matter in the Remainer bubble of London and Westminster but it most certainly won't be in the country as a whole.
    A UK-wide referendum on the same basis as 2016 would be a non-starter. First you’d need to remove any obstacles caused by the union.
    OK we'll do it another way and elect a government committed to leaving without a referendum.

    I don't want Farage as PM but I'd vote for it if I had to.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    GIN1138 said:

    Byronic said:

    Can’t believe you’re not obsessing over these tweets. Maybe it is the spartan sun sending me mad, but look at this.

    ‘Jessica Elgot (@jessicaelgot) Tweeted:
    Meeting including Margot James, Greg Clark, David Gauke, Caroline Nokes, Alistair Burt and Anne Milton.Some attempted genuine engagement with PM on negotiating deal but PM and Gove said they believe any deal is dead if bill passes & said it would only lead to referendum or revoke’

    There it is. A clear admission - and truthful, I think - that we now stand on the precipice of referendum or revoke, if the rebel bill passes.

    The Remainers won’t give up now. Their ultimate prize is within grasp. Brexit is dying.

    And you think Leavers will just give up? Why should they when they've had their vote ignored and ultimately cancelled.

    The first day after Brexit is revoked or cancelled Brexiteers will be campaigning for another referendum and to leave. I know I certainly will...

    I saw Layla Moran on Sky on Sunday and was amazed at the assumption that stopping Brexit will be the end of the matter. It may be the end of the matter in the Remainer bubble of London and Westminster but it most certainly won't be in the country as a whole.
    The requirement for leaving the EU is not 51%im a referendum. Its the 30-or-so per cent you need to form a majority government after a general election.

    If remainers keep us in now its only a matter of time before a Brexit party or even Conservative party campaigns in a GE on a platform of taking us out, unilaterally, and wins a majority.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    This is quite incendiary. The rebels are in cahoots with the lawyers of a foreign power.

    Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) Tweeted:
    4. Johnson tried to make case he thinks will get a deal but there simply isn’t much faith in that argument - one present said ‘it’s a load of ....’ - on other side another in the room said it’s clear rebels have consulted with eu lawyers


    If you want to be hyperbolic, THIS looks like the real coup.

    Yes, diehard Remainers are now clearly turning traitor this is 1588 all over again
    :D

    I’m a citizen of both the EU and the UK. How can I be a traitor?
    At some point you are going to have to choose one or the other. (Not that that would make you a traitor)
    I wont get a choice. One will be taken away from me.
    You mean you can't be a citizen of the EU?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    edited September 2019

    Scott_P said:
    That list of signatories would make a half-decent front bench for a Gnu. Interesting.
    If they can tell their cubitum from their gluteus maximus then they are already streets ahead of the current fron bench
  • GIN1138 said:

    Byronic said:

    Can’t believe you’re not obsessing over these tweets. Maybe it is the spartan sun sending me mad, but look at this.

    ‘Jessica Elgot (@jessicaelgot) Tweeted:
    Meeting including Margot James, Greg Clark, David Gauke, Caroline Nokes, Alistair Burt and Anne Milton.Some attempted genuine engagement with PM on negotiating deal but PM and Gove said they believe any deal is dead if bill passes & said it would only lead to referendum or revoke’

    There it is. A clear admission - and truthful, I think - that we now stand on the precipice of referendum or revoke, if the rebel bill passes.

    The Remainers won’t give up now. Their ultimate prize is within grasp. Brexit is dying.

    And you think Leavers will just give up? Why should they when they've had their vote ignored and ultimately cancelled.

    The first day after Brexit is revoked or cancelled Brexiteers will be campaigning for another referendum and to leave. I know I certainly will...

    I saw Layla Moran on Sky on Sunday and was amazed at the assumption that stopping Brexit will be the end of the matter. It may be the end of the matter in the Remainer bubble of London and Westminster but it most certainly won't be in the country as a whole.
    This has been pretty obvious to me since the fucking idiots in the ERG voted down the WA in March for the final time.
  • HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    This is quite incendiary. The rebels are in cahoots with the lawyers of a foreign power.

    Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) Tweeted:
    4. Johnson tried to make case he thinks will get a deal but there simply isn’t much faith in that argument - one present said ‘it’s a load of ....’ - on other side another in the room said it’s clear rebels have consulted with eu lawyers


    If you want to be hyperbolic, THIS looks like the real coup.

    Yes, diehard Remainers are now clearly turning traitor this is 1588 all over again
    Oh, you don't need to go back as far as 1588. As recently as last year traitorous MPs were trying to conduct parallel negotiations with the enemy:

    https://www.politico.eu/article/jacob-rees-mogg-michel-barnier-and-i-agree-may-plan-wont-fly/
    Not to mention all those attempts at lobbying foreign governments to thwart the will of the British parliament.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/13/brexiters-lobby-for-european-veto-of-article-50-extension
  • HYUFD said:
    The Tory Grandees are joining the fight. This could be the beginning of the end of Brexit.

    Agreed. If we do not leave on 31 October then we never will IMO. If the bill passes tomorrow and Johnson is prevented from calling a snap election then it's over bar the shouting, and there will be plenty of that.
  • TGOHF said:

    Byronic said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'm looking forward to the betting opportunities of the upcoming GE. Cooper booted out of Pontefract is top of my deliciousness list

    Could happen if the Tories stand down and give the Brexit Party a free run, the Brexit Party won the area in the European Parliament elections
    If Brexit dies, Farage will shoulder a fair portion of the blame. His decision to carry on harrying the Tories, even Boris, as they genuinely tried to Brexit, has weakened them at a crucial time.

    Farage got high on his own supply. His downfall may be sudden and harsh.
    His tactics during any pre Brexit referendum will be very interesting.

    Brexit actually occurring is career-ending for Farage. He’ll be quite happy if it doesn’t happen just yet
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    BarneyA said:

    TGOHF said:

    Byronic said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'm looking forward to the betting opportunities of the upcoming GE. Cooper booted out of Pontefract is top of my deliciousness list

    Could happen if the Tories stand down and give the Brexit Party a free run, the Brexit Party won the area in the European Parliament elections
    If Brexit dies, Farage will shoulder a fair portion of the blame. His decision to carry on harrying the Tories, even Boris, as they genuinely tried to Brexit, has weakened them at a crucial time.

    Farage got high on his own supply. His downfall may be sudden and harsh.
    His tactics during any pre Brexit referendum will be very interesting.

    Brexit actually occurring is career-ending for Farage. He’ll be quite happy if it doesn’t happen just yet
    He walked away after the referendum victory - he can move on to Trump 2020 if we leave soon.
  • kyf_100 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Byronic said:

    Can’t believe you’re not obsessing over these tweets. Maybe it is the spartan sun sending me mad, but look at this.

    ‘Jessica Elgot (@jessicaelgot) Tweeted:
    Meeting including Margot James, Greg Clark, David Gauke, Caroline Nokes, Alistair Burt and Anne Milton.Some attempted genuine engagement with PM on negotiating deal but PM and Gove said they believe any deal is dead if bill passes & said it would only lead to referendum or revoke’

    There it is. A clear admission - and truthful, I think - that we now stand on the precipice of referendum or revoke, if the rebel bill passes.

    The Remainers won’t give up now. Their ultimate prize is within grasp. Brexit is dying.

    And you think Leavers will just give up? Why should they when they've had their vote ignored and ultimately cancelled.

    The first day after Brexit is revoked or cancelled Brexiteers will be campaigning for another referendum and to leave. I know I certainly will...

    I saw Layla Moran on Sky on Sunday and was amazed at the assumption that stopping Brexit will be the end of the matter. It may be the end of the matter in the Remainer bubble of London and Westminster but it most certainly won't be in the country as a whole.
    The requirement for leaving the EU is not 51%im a referendum. Its the 30-or-so per cent you need to form a majority government after a general election.

    If remainers keep us in now its only a matter of time before a Brexit party or even Conservative party campaigns in a GE on a platform of taking us out, unilaterally, and wins a majority.
    What will its policy be towards the union?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Byronic said:

    This is quite incendiary. The rebels are in cahoots with the lawyers of a foreign power.

    Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) Tweeted:
    4. Johnson tried to make case he thinks will get a deal but there simply isn’t much faith in that argument - one present said ‘it’s a load of ....’ - on other side another in the room said it’s clear rebels have consulted with eu lawyers


    If you want to be hyperbolic, THIS looks like the real coup.

    Glorious Revolution
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    kyf_100 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Byronic said:

    Can’t believe you’re not obsessing over these tweets. Maybe it is the spartan sun sending me mad, but look at this.

    ‘Jessica Elgot (@jessicaelgot) Tweeted:
    Meeting including Margot James, Greg Clark, David Gauke, Caroline Nokes, Alistair Burt and Anne Milton.Some attempted genuine engagement with PM on negotiating deal but PM and Gove said they believe any deal is dead if bill passes & said it would only lead to referendum or revoke’

    There it is. A clear admission - and truthful, I think - that we now stand on the precipice of referendum or revoke, if the rebel bill passes.

    The Remainers won’t give up now. Their ultimate prize is within grasp. Brexit is dying.

    And you think Leavers will just give up? Why should they when they've had their vote ignored and ultimately cancelled.

    The first day after Brexit is revoked or cancelled Brexiteers will be campaigning for another referendum and to leave. I know I certainly will...

    I saw Layla Moran on Sky on Sunday and was amazed at the assumption that stopping Brexit will be the end of the matter. It may be the end of the matter in the Remainer bubble of London and Westminster but it most certainly won't be in the country as a whole.
    The requirement for leaving the EU is not 51%im a referendum. Its the 30-or-so per cent you need to form a majority government after a general election.

    If remainers keep us in now its only a matter of time before a Brexit party or even Conservative party campaigns in a GE on a platform of taking us out, unilaterally, and wins a majority.
    Certainly possible. It’s also possible most Britons will wearily sigh, express regret, and then get on with their lives, happy to forget about politics again.

    My big fear is that Britain will develop a dolchstosslegende, like Germany after Versailles. That didn’t end well.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stab-in-the-back_myth
  • GIN1138 said:

    Byronic said:

    Can’t believe you’re not obsessing over these tweets. Maybe it is the spartan sun sending me mad, but look at this.

    ‘Jessica Elgot (@jessicaelgot) Tweeted:
    Meeting including Margot James, Greg Clark, David Gauke, Caroline Nokes, Alistair Burt and Anne Milton.Some attempted genuine engagement with PM on negotiating deal but PM and Gove said they believe any deal is dead if bill passes & said it would only lead to referendum or revoke’

    There it is. A clear admission - and truthful, I think - that we now stand on the precipice of referendum or revoke, if the rebel bill passes.

    The Remainers won’t give up now. Their ultimate prize is within grasp. Brexit is dying.

    And you think Leavers will just give up? Why should they when they've had their vote ignored and ultimately cancelled.

    The first day after Brexit is revoked or cancelled Brexiteers will be campaigning for another referendum and to leave. I know I certainly will...

    I saw Layla Moran on Sky on Sunday and was amazed at the assumption that stopping Brexit will be the end of the matter. It may be the end of the matter in the Remainer bubble of London and Westminster but it most certainly won't be in the country as a whole.
    A UK-wide referendum on the same basis as 2016 would be a non-starter. First you’d need to remove any obstacles caused by the union.
    It was always going to be Deal on the EU's terms or Revoke. We knew that in 2016 when Juncker et al was telling us that there was no such thing as Soft Brexit, Canada++, Norway--, etc.

    Leavers just kept denying it and shouting that we deserved to have our cake before, during and after eating. And with extra portions too...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    BarneyA said:

    Apologies for repeating, but I originally put this on the wrong thread (I’m new!). There are ministerial statements from Johnson, Javid and Williamson before the application for an emergency debate on Brexit gets heard. What’s to stop those statements taking 4 hours each?

    There's a timetable on each one - and before anyone gets upset, this is normal procedure and not a hideous conspiracy. Otherwise we'd get filibusters on anything than a single MP dsagreed with.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    If Parliament won't grant a general election until after Monday what would be the earliest date it could be held?

    Would 17th October still be viable or would it be Thursday 24th October?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,216
    The Gov't could do with losing their own case in order to get an election through the Lords I expect.
  • HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    This is quite incendiary. The rebels are in cahoots with the lawyers of a foreign power.

    Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) Tweeted:
    4. Johnson tried to make case he thinks will get a deal but there simply isn’t much faith in that argument - one present said ‘it’s a load of ....’ - on other side another in the room said it’s clear rebels have consulted with eu lawyers


    If you want to be hyperbolic, THIS looks like the real coup.

    Yes, diehard Remainers are now clearly turning traitor this is 1588 all over again
    :D

    I’m a citizen of both the EU and the UK. How can I be a traitor?
    I think it's concepts like that which really irritate Eurosceptics: they put national citizenships on an equal footing with those of every other, when really they're not. Again, the EU gets the tone and language all wrong.

    The EU should have stuck to citizen of a nation state within the European Alliance. Everything from nation first and ditch the federalism.

    Crucial difference.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,508
    Byronic said:

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    This is quite incendiary. The rebels are in cahoots with the lawyers of a foreign power.

    Indeed. There is only one course of action now!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3BO6GP9NMY
    “Bursting with war”. Genius. Perhaps my favorite bit of Steve Morris
    What’s your favourite bit of Chris Morris?
  • HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    This is quite incendiary. The rebels are in cahoots with the lawyers of a foreign power.

    Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) Tweeted:
    4. Johnson tried to make case he thinks will get a deal but there simply isn’t much faith in that argument - one present said ‘it’s a load of ....’ - on other side another in the room said it’s clear rebels have consulted with eu lawyers


    If you want to be hyperbolic, THIS looks like the real coup.

    Yes, diehard Remainers are now clearly turning traitor this is 1588 all over again
    The only possible treachery is those who have wilfully or mistakenly damaged our international reputation and advanced the foreign policy agenda of Vladimir Putin. The smell of Russian influence is strongest around those that have led and financed the Leave campaign, and you are most definitely a useful idiot. Actually drop the useful bit.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,216
    GIN1138 said:

    If Parliament won't grant a general election until after Monday what would be the earliest date it could be held?

    Would 17th October still be viable or would it be Thursday 24th October?

    Johnson will have to go into it as LOTO lol
  • Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris can simply put forward a law stating the FPTA will not apply in this instance and an election can be called for October 14th with just a simple majority and he likely will

    But wouldn't that directly conflict with the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, which didn't make any provision for a future law doing what you describe? At the very least, surely the courts would get involved to decide whether the FTPA or this new law should take precedence.
    The previous parliament cannot bind this one, he is free to amend it is if he has the votes
    Yeah, he's free to amend (or repeal) the FTPA, but that's not what's being talked about, is it?

    People are saying he'd just put forward a bill saying "notwithstanding the FTPA, an election will be held on 14/10/19", but I don't see how that would work. In that case, you'd still have the FTPA on the statute book stating that any election would be invalid without a two-thirds majority.
    The FTPA does not say that. It gives two mechanisms for calling an early general election, one of which requires a motion to get a two thirds majority. It does not say any there are no other mechanisms, nor does it say that there are any circumstances in which an election is invalid. It cannot prevent a later Act overriding it. A one clause Act setting an election date would work in my view and would only need a simple majority.
    It would also need to get through the Lords, and in a great hurry. Why do people keep forgetting that bit?
    I keep asking the same question without a satisfactory answer.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    GIN1138 said:

    Byronic said:

    Can’t believe you’re not obsessing over these tweets. Maybe it is the spartan sun sending me mad, but look at this.

    ‘Jessica Elgot (@jessicaelgot) Tweeted:
    Meeting including Margot James, Greg Clark, David Gauke, Caroline Nokes, Alistair Burt and Anne Milton.Some attempted genuine engagement with PM on negotiating deal but PM and Gove said they believe any deal is dead if bill passes & said it would only lead to referendum or revoke’

    There it is. A clear admission - and truthful, I think - that we now stand on the precipice of referendum or revoke, if the rebel bill passes.

    The Remainers won’t give up now. Their ultimate prize is within grasp. Brexit is dying.

    And you think Leavers will just give up? Why should they when they've had their vote ignored and ultimately cancelled.

    The first day after Brexit is revoked or cancelled Brexiteers will be campaigning for another referendum and to leave. I know I certainly will...

    I saw Layla Moran on Sky on Sunday and was amazed at the assumption that stopping Brexit will be the end of the matter. It may be the end of the matter in the Remainer bubble of London and Westminster but it most certainly won't be in the country as a whole.
    Tough, we are going to make referendums illegal (and define campaigning for them as an act of treason).
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    TOPPING said:

    Byronic said:

    This is quite incendiary. The rebels are in cahoots with the lawyers of a foreign power.

    Indeed. There is only one course of action now!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3BO6GP9NMY
    “Bursting with war”. Genius. Perhaps my favorite bit of Steve Morris
    What’s your favourite bit of Chris Morris?
    My bad. In mitigation, I am typing on an iPad in 36C heat. It feels like a slab of white hot steel.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    This is quite incendiary. The rebels are in cahoots with the lawyers of a foreign power.

    Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) Tweeted:
    4. Johnson tried to make case he thinks will get a deal but there simply isn’t much faith in that argument - one present said ‘it’s a load of ....’ - on other side another in the room said it’s clear rebels have consulted with eu lawyers


    If you want to be hyperbolic, THIS looks like the real coup.

    Yes, diehard Remainers are now clearly turning traitor this is 1588 all over again
    :D

    I’m a citizen of both the EU and the UK. How can I be a traitor?
    I think it's concepts like that which really irritate Eurosceptics: they put national citizenships on an equal footing with those of every other, when really they're not. Again, the EU gets the tone and language all wrong.

    The EU should have stuck to citizen of a nation state within the European Alliance. Everything from nation first and ditch the federalism.

    Crucial difference.
    🤷‍♂️ my European identity is important to me, and increasingly more so than my British identity.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    This is quite incendiary. The rebels are in cahoots with the lawyers of a foreign power.

    Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) Tweeted:
    4. Johnson tried to make case he thinks will get a deal but there simply isn’t much faith in that argument - one present said ‘it’s a load of ....’ - on other side another in the room said it’s clear rebels have consulted with eu lawyers


    If you want to be hyperbolic, THIS looks like the real coup.

    Yes, diehard Remainers are now clearly turning traitor this is 1588 all over again
    Oh, you don't need to go back as far as 1588. As recently as last year traitorous MPs were trying to conduct parallel negotiations with the enemy:

    https://www.politico.eu/article/jacob-rees-mogg-michel-barnier-and-i-agree-may-plan-wont-fly/
    Consorting with *gasp* the lead agent of a foreign power.
    Whatever will Byronic make of it ?
  • kyf_100 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Byronic said:

    Can’t believe you’re not obsessing over these tweets. Maybe it is the spartan sun sending me mad, but look at this.

    ‘Jessica Elgot (@jessicaelgot) Tweeted:
    Meeting including Margot James, Greg Clark, David Gauke, Caroline Nokes, Alistair Burt and Anne Milton.Some attempted genuine engagement with PM on negotiating deal but PM and Gove said they believe any deal is dead if bill passes & said it would only lead to referendum or revoke’

    There it is. A clear admission - and truthful, I think - that we now stand on the precipice of referendum or revoke, if the rebel bill passes.

    The Remainers won’t give up now. Their ultimate prize is within grasp. Brexit is dying.

    And you think Leavers will just give up? Why should they when they've had their vote ignored and ultimately cancelled.

    The first day after Brexit is revoked or cancelled Brexiteers will be campaigning for another referendum and to leave. I know I certainly will...

    I saw Layla Moran on Sky on Sunday and was amazed at the assumption that stopping Brexit will be the end of the matter. It may be the end of the matter in the Remainer bubble of London and Westminster but it most certainly won't be in the country as a whole.
    The requirement for leaving the EU is not 51%im a referendum. Its the 30-or-so per cent you need to form a majority government after a general election.

    If remainers keep us in now its only a matter of time before a Brexit party or even Conservative party campaigns in a GE on a platform of taking us out, unilaterally, and wins a majority.
    What will its policy be towards the union?
    Same as now - wave your hands in the air and waffle vague platitudes....
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Byronic said:

    kyf_100 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Byronic said:

    Can’t believe you’re not obsessing over these tweets. Maybe it is the spartan sun sending me mad, but look at this.

    ‘Jessica Elgot (@jessicaelgot) Tweeted:
    Meeting including Margot James, Greg Clark, David Gauke, Caroline Nokes, Alistair Burt and Anne Milton.Some attempted genuine engagement with PM on negotiating deal but PM and Gove said they believe any deal is dead if bill passes & said it would only lead to referendum or revoke’

    There it is. A clear admission - and truthful, I think - that we now stand on the precipice of referendum or revoke, if the rebel bill passes.

    The Remainers won’t give up now. Their ultimate prize is within grasp. Brexit is dying.

    And you think Leavers will just give up? Why should they when they've had their vote ignored and ultimately cancelled.

    The first day after Brexit is revoked or cancelled Brexiteers will be campaigning for another referendum and to leave. I know I certainly will...

    I saw Layla Moran on Sky on Sunday and was amazed at the assumption that stopping Brexit will be the end of the matter. It may be the end of the matter in the Remainer bubble of London and Westminster but it most certainly won't be in the country as a whole.
    The requirement for leaving the EU is not 51%im a referendum. Its the 30-or-so per cent you need to form a majority government after a general election.

    If remainers keep us in now its only a matter of time before a Brexit party or even Conservative party campaigns in a GE on a platform of taking us out, unilaterally, and wins a majority.
    Certainly possible. It’s also possible most Britons will wearily sigh, express regret, and then get on with their lives, happy to forget about politics again.

    My big fear is that Britain will develop a dolchstosslegende, like Germany after Versailles. That didn’t end well.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stab-in-the-back_myth
    There are certain irresponsible people trying to manufacture exactly that kind of myth right now. Don't think we haven't noticed.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    BarneyA said:

    TGOHF said:

    Byronic said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'm looking forward to the betting opportunities of the upcoming GE. Cooper booted out of Pontefract is top of my deliciousness list

    Could happen if the Tories stand down and give the Brexit Party a free run, the Brexit Party won the area in the European Parliament elections
    If Brexit dies, Farage will shoulder a fair portion of the blame. His decision to carry on harrying the Tories, even Boris, as they genuinely tried to Brexit, has weakened them at a crucial time.

    Farage got high on his own supply. His downfall may be sudden and harsh.
    His tactics during any pre Brexit referendum will be very interesting.

    Brexit actually occurring is career-ending for Farage. He’ll be quite happy if it doesn’t happen just yet
    Yes. It has always been clear that there are a number of high profile politicians whose place on the gravy train would be lost if we ever left. They are on both sides of the argument.
This discussion has been closed.