Stringer, skinner, hoey, Austin, field, flint, that former Lib Dem..... o'mara not voting. It's going to be close, I expect about 15 Tory rebels, a handful will back out to maintain their job
I suspect Field will abstain.
He needs another 5 or 6 labour/indies or a dozen or so abstentions amongst opposition mps. We will see if the leave seat facing labour MPs are on the move
2 WWII analogies and it's only 10:30? You're spoiling us ambassador.
England is obsessed with WWII and past glories. I reckon it is all those repeats of Dad's Army that does it.
So those WWII past glories had nothing to do with Scotland?
I wonder what past glories Scotland does elebrate? Anything since the fourteenth century?
The point was about all the idiots quoting WWII in relation to Brexit, absolute F******s who are so thick and jingoistic they have no clue what they are on about. Fact is that since Brexit , many people in England have went from crazy to mentally deranged. In Scotland we are not spouting war metaphors in some pathetic gesture about Brexit.
"No deal cannot BOTH be perfectly manageable (for U.K. audiences) and yet so terrible that the threat of it will force the EU to cave in."
Of course, it's far more likely that it will be terrible for the UK but manageable for the rest of the EU.
Not true.
No deal can be a problem but one we are prepared to live with to gain the benefits of freedom and the ability to set our own laws, customs and have our own courts interpret them.
On the other hand the EU and Ireland especially gain no benefits from no deal. They suffer the consequences but only we reap the rewards.
The fact that you still fail to recognise there are any rewards to Brexit is why you are struggling with this misapprehension.
Do you really believe that there will be no rewards for the EU from a No Deal Brexit? Seriously? All those companies relocating HQ’s to Amsterdam or banks moving assets to Ireland or companies moving to Ireland (like mine, for instance) or companies moving jobs to the EU in order to protect themselves from the consequences of a No Deal exit say hello.
There may well be some rewards from Brexit. The questions are whether:-
1. They will outweigh the costs. 2. Those rewards will be gained by those who primarily voted for Brexit. 3. Both the rewards and costs will be fairly shared. 4. Whether the manner of Brexiting i.e. a No Deal exit vs an exit with a deal will change the rewards/costs ratio.
So far most of the Brexiteers seem to have given very little thought to the “what happens next” argument.
I can only see a similar level of forward planning for Remain, Where;s the plan because staying in wont be the same as before 2016.
To date the Brexiteers havent said what they will do which is a clear failing, but success or failure will depend on what they introduce as policies post an exit. Atm as per your criticism there may be zilch they have thought of, on the other hand there may be a series of initiatives they go for which make life better.
In either case I suspect the plans of both parties will be largely irrelevant to any constraints imposed by the EU. Our EU failings have mostly been driven by domestic politicians.
How do those who, rightly, complain that prorogation is a suspension of democracy then turn round and oppose an election?
But Boris had said that the people don’t want an election and I have no reason to not believe him.
Just because they don't want one, doesn't mean if Parliament can't sort itself out the country doesn't need one.
If Labour are too frit to accept an election then it wouldn't surprise me to see the Tories polling 38% to 40% plus by the weekend. And Labour potentially polling below the Lib Dems.
Maybe Dominic Cummings is Nick Timothy in disguise? An over hyped nonentity who thinks he is much cleverer than he actually is, and is much less clever than his gullible boss thinks he is. When are we going to get politicians and their advisors who have actually done proper jobs, and are therefore tested in the real world?
For a humungous fee, I will be available after the middle of October.
(Of course, I won’t be able to write any more PB headers but to those on here who think I write drivel - and have been saying so vociferously in recent days - that is probably a plus. So win-win all round. And you can then all debate The No Chocolate in Coffee Bill to your heart’s content...... ).
If that projection Richard_Nabavi flagged up happened, how would Jo Swinson act, given that she has stated that she cannot work with Jeremy Corbyn? Is she guilty of lying about her intentions, or would she undergo a Damascene conversion in the pursuit of power. Perhaps she might claim that she and The LDs are acting in the greater good.
Stringer, skinner, hoey, Austin, field, flint, that former Lib Dem..... o'mara not voting. It's going to be close, I expect about 15 Tory rebels, a handful will back out to maintain their job
Is Field opposing? This is the only thing even vaguely connected that I can find from him:
Stringer, skinner, hoey, Austin, field, flint, that former Lib Dem..... o'mara not voting. It's going to be close, I expect about 15 Tory rebels, a handful will back out to maintain their job
Is Field opposing? This is the only thing even vaguely connected that I can find from him:
The deal was primarily scuppered by the ferocious reaction of the ERG and its acolytes. No type of deal would ever satisfy them as we are witnessing again now. They always wanted a No Deal Brexit but didn't have the guts to campaign for it openly. They hid behind the "easy deal, no problems" line until the referendum was in the bag then they set out achieving their own agenda.
Last I checked there aren't 400+ ERG MPs.
That Remainers chose to march through the lobbies with the ERG to keep no deal on the table is on them.
When the ERG are saying the deal is awful, when Ken Clarke is saying its good, maybe Remainers should have thought twice before siding with the ERG instead of Ken Clarke.
Tory problem. ERG are Tories. Deal was Tory red lines.
How do those who, rightly, complain that prorogation is a suspension of democracy then turn round and oppose an election?
But Boris had said that the people don’t want an election and I have no reason to not believe him.
Just because they don't want one, doesn't mean if Parliament can't sort itself out the country doesn't need one.
If Labour are too frit to accept an election then it wouldn't surprise me to see the Tories polling 38% to 40% plus by the weekend. And Labour potentially polling below the Lib Dems.
Thats possible. Labours policy has been banging on about an election for the next X months. Now if they look frit, especially when the polls aren't that favourable, they'll be attacked for that.
Esepecially when the public are fed up to the eye teeth with all of this, and want it settled, one way or the other.
How do those who, rightly, complain that prorogation is a suspension of democracy then turn round and oppose an election?
But Boris had said that the people don’t want an election and I have no reason to not believe him.
Just because they don't want one, doesn't mean if Parliament can't sort itself out the country doesn't need one.
If Labour are too frit to accept an election then it wouldn't surprise me to see the Tories polling 38% to 40% plus by the weekend. And Labour potentially polling below the Lib Dems.
We already had an election in 2017. Stop trying to subvert democracy. The people have already spoken.
Stringer, skinner, hoey, Austin, field, flint, that former Lib Dem..... o'mara not voting. It's going to be close, I expect about 15 Tory rebels, a handful will back out to maintain their job
Skinner will not support the Tories, Flint and Stringer will be conscious of the reselection process they are about to undergo, I don't think Field favours no deal. That just leaves Hoey, who will support the government, and perhaps Austin. The visceral dislike of Johnson in Labour is much stronger than their antipathy to May, he will not get significant support from them.
I do feel there is a worrying assumption at the moment that the EU will just wave through another extension.
There has to be a good chance that they refuse. What happens then? Presumably revoke, but does it have the numbers?
As we are unable to make a choice ourselves, to refuse an extension is to give us a binary choice between revoke and no deal. They may see that as the best way of not screwing up the current EU Parliament, planning and budget round.
Stringer, skinner, hoey, Austin, field, flint, that former Lib Dem..... o'mara not voting. It's going to be close, I expect about 15 Tory rebels, a handful will back out to maintain their job
Skinner will not support the Tories, Flint and Stringer will be conscious of the reselection process they are about to undergo, I don't think Field favours no deal. That just leaves Hoey, who will support the government, and perhaps Austin. The visceral dislike of Johnson in Labour is much stronger than their antipathy to May, he will not get significant support from them.
Theyve opposed these measures before, no reason to assume they wont this time
Peoples vote but stop the people voting! We dont want a chance to be elected to enact our legislation! There are HUGE risks in opposing an election
There are even bigger risks in falling in with Cumming's cunning plan
I'm not so sure, gain a short extension and lose even bigger later? Its possible
Cummings is desperate for an election BEFORE he has to jump to either No Deal or May's deal with a fig leaf at the end of October. All the lying and dissembling in the universe is not going to change that.
That is why his attempts to goad parliament into doing what he wants get more bizarre by the day - prorogue parliament, deselect former chancellors and leadership candidates. Be fascinating to see what else he has up if sleeve if parliament still refuses to play ball. Johnson to propose a VONC in himself?
MRPs as a methodology, as opposed to any one pollster, have a claim on being the current gold standard and, given the policies and personalities in play, this too has a ring of truth to it. Paying attention to the YouGov MRP in 2017 was a lucrative move. I'm surprised there haven't been more thread headers on these.
Of course there are error bars on the MP numbers and more politics to happen, but this is a credible poll. The changes are vs GE17, and it is noteworthy that the numbers are much closer in terms of the current composition of parliament.
Boris can simply put forward a law stating the FPTA will not apply in this instance and an election can be called for October 14th with just a simple majority and he likely will
Boris can simply put forward a law stating the FPTA will not apply in this instance and an election can be called for October 14th with just a simple majority and he likely will
MPs could amend that law to put all manner of conditions attached. Sounds fun.
Boris can simply put forward a law stating the FPTA will not apply in this instance and an election can be called for October 14th with just a simple majority and he likely will
Boris can simply put forward a law stating the FPTA will not apply in this instance and an election can be called for October 14th with just a simple majority and he likely will
And the SNP will back it as they are likely to gain seats in buckets
How do those who, rightly, complain that prorogation is a suspension of democracy then turn round and oppose an election?
But Boris had said that the people don’t want an election and I have no reason to not believe him.
Just because they don't want one, doesn't mean if Parliament can't sort itself out the country doesn't need one.
If Labour are too frit to accept an election then it wouldn't surprise me to see the Tories polling 38% to 40% plus by the weekend. And Labour potentially polling below the Lib Dems.
Yes, we are now heading to all out No Deal v Revoke civil war.
That means Boris Tories and the Brexit Party v the LDs and SNP with Corbyn Labour squeezed to death in the middle
Boris can simply put forward a law stating the FPTA will not apply in this instance and an election can be called for October 14th with just a simple majority and he likely will
But wouldn't that directly conflict with the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, which didn't make any provision for a future law doing what you describe? At the very least, surely the courts would get involved to decide whether the FTPA or this new law should take precedence.
Boris can simply put forward a law stating the FPTA will not apply in this instance and an election can be called for October 14th with just a simple majority and he likely will
Stringer, skinner, hoey, Austin, field, flint, that former Lib Dem..... o'mara not voting. It's going to be close, I expect about 15 Tory rebels, a handful will back out to maintain their job
Skinner will not support the Tories, Flint and Stringer will be conscious of the reselection process they are about to undergo, I don't think Field favours no deal. That just leaves Hoey, who will support the government, and perhaps Austin. The visceral dislike of Johnson in Labour is much stronger than their antipathy to May, he will not get significant support from them.
Wouldn't Hoey get soundings from Farage though, who would presumably love an extension because it would allow him to crucify Boris?
Stringer, skinner, hoey, Austin, field, flint, that former Lib Dem..... o'mara not voting. It's going to be close, I expect about 15 Tory rebels, a handful will back out to maintain their job
I suspect Field will abstain.
Where do you get your names there from, dyedwoolie? I'll be amazed if Skinner doesn't vote against the Government.
I don't think it will be especially close. There will be Tory rebels who we've not seen speaking yet - there is no advantage in coming out early.
And where does prorogation fit in all this. Why burn all that political capital, provoke counter mobilisation, involve the monarchy, look undemocratic if just one week later you are then disolving rather than prorouging ? I just don't see a coherent narrative.
I know the story everyone's enjoying is that there's this one ruthless advisor dude who's in charge of everything but it feels more like there are a bunch of warring advisors with different strategies and Boris is picking and choosing based on who he spoke to last. All the things they're doing make sense as part of one strategy or another, but put them together and they're all over the map.
Boris can simply put forward a law stating the FPTA will not apply in this instance and an election can be called for October 14th with just a simple majority and he likely will
But wouldn't that directly conflict with the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, which didn't make any provision for a future law doing what you describe? At the very least, surely the courts would get involved to decide whether the FTPA or this new law should take precedence.
The previous parliament cannot bind this one, he is free to amend it is if he has the votes
Boris can simply put forward a law stating the FPTA will not apply in this instance and an election can be called for October 14th with just a simple majority and he likely will
Stringer, skinner, hoey, Austin, field, flint, that former Lib Dem..... o'mara not voting. It's going to be close, I expect about 15 Tory rebels, a handful will back out to maintain their job
I suspect Field will abstain.
Where do you get your names there from, dyedwoolie? I'll be amazed if Skinner doesn't vote against the Government.
I don't think it will be especially close. There will be Tory rebels who we've not seen speaking yet - there is no advantage in coming out early.
Yeah it felt like Nokes came out of no where yesterday.
Boris can simply put forward a law stating the FPTA will not apply in this instance and an election can be called for October 14th with just a simple majority and he likely will
But wouldn't that directly conflict with the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, which didn't make any provision for a future law doing what you describe? At the very least, surely the courts would get involved to decide whether the FTPA or this new law should take precedence.
The previous parliament cannot bind this one, he is free to amend it is if he has the votes
Yeah, he's free to amend (or repeal) the FTPA, but that's not what's being talked about, is it?
People are saying he'd just put forward a bill saying "notwithstanding the FTPA, an election will be held on 14/10/19", but I don't see how that would work. In that case, you'd still have the FTPA on the statute book stating that any election would be invalid without a two-thirds majority.
How do those who, rightly, complain that prorogation is a suspension of democracy then turn round and oppose an election?
If there’s one thing we’ve learned over the past 2 years, it’s that ALL of our political class has a terrifyingly bendy view of ‘democracy’.
To be fair, they reflect the electorate in that - just as Parliament unable to agree on a Brexit outcome reflects the lack of agreement in the country.
And where does prorogation fit in all this. Why burn all that political capital, provoke counter mobilisation, involve the monarchy, look undemocratic if just one week later you are then disolving rather than prorouging ? I just don't see a coherent narrative.
I know the story everyone's enjoying is that there's this one ruthless advisor dude who's in charge of everything but it feels more like there are a bunch of warring advisors with different strategies and Boris is picking and choosing based on who he spoke to last. All the things they're doing make sense as part of one strategy or another, but put them together and they're all over the map.
That rings true. Nikki Da Costa, who was advising Johnson on prorogation, was doing the same job for Theresa May when she was crushing the saboteurs.
I am (metaphorically) hold my scissors around my membership card. BoJo can call an election if he wants, but damn straight it's got to be October 14th. Last chance, Johnson.
I don't want to moan but do we need all this WW2 stuff?
Blair's speech yesterday was interesting - though as I mentioned before there was one enormous gaffe about train travelling times to Paris and Newcastle.
However there were a few things unanswered.
1) He said no deal would not be the end but just the beginning. Perhaps but what about revoke? Does he seriously believe that will settle things either even if there is a 'People's Vote'? What future inside the EU are they offering?
2) He touched on how Brexit reflected a wider cultural cleavage. This was welcome but again what is to be done about this? How can we avoid moving to the more identity-based tribal politics of Northern Ireland? Or did he think what was needed was for one side to 'win' over the other?
3) Elites versus the people. He rightly pointed out the dangers of the people versus parliament argument and how the referendum had contributed to this but he didn't seem to realise that the referendum result, in fact the mere holding of the referendum, was a symptom of political breakdown. Declining turnouts and perverse results through FPTP are not helping parliament's legitimacy. There is also the issue of corruption. A sense that politics is bought by vested interests, that MPs discreetly feather their own nests and are too close to powerful figures in the world of commerce and finance whom they are supposed to be regulating. Also a quite correct sense that this is all being facilitated by the increasingly open world we live in. Too many seem comforted by the idea that it's all about inequality, that some people feel (wrongly?) that they are losing out whilst the selected few do ostentatiously well. Actually many believe that the system itself is rotten.
That is a very interesting post. Worthy of a header, perhaps?
If that projection Richard_Nabavi flagged up happened, how would Jo Swinson act, given that she has stated that she cannot work with Jeremy Corbyn? Is she guilty of lying about her intentions, or would she undergo a Damascene conversion in the pursuit of power. Perhaps she might claim that she and The LDs are acting in the greater good.
Parliament would be as deadlocked as it is now, irrespective of any given party leader’s view.
Unless, of course, Labour agreed to a change of leader or an end to FPTP...
Boris can simply put forward a law stating the FPTA will not apply in this instance and an election can be called for October 14th with just a simple majority and he likely will
You are forgetting the Lords.
Boris is going to pack the Lords with pro Brexit peers
"No deal cannot BOTH be perfectly manageable (for U.K. audiences) and yet so terrible that the threat of it will force the EU to cave in."
Of course, it's far more likely that it will be terrible for the UK but manageable for the rest of the EU.
Not true.
No deal can be a problem but one we are prepared to live with to gain the benefits of freedom and the ability to set our own laws, customs and have our own courts interpret them.
On the other hand the EU and Ireland especially gain no benefits from no deal. They suffer the consequences but only we reap the rewards.
The fact that you still fail to recognise there are any rewards to Brexit is why you are struggling with this misapprehension.
Do you really believe that there will be no rewards for the EU from a No Deal Brexit? Seriously? All those companies relocating HQ’s to Amsterdam or banks moving assets to Ireland or companies moving to Ireland (like mine, for instance) or companies moving jobs to the EU in order to protect themselves from the consequences of a No Deal exit say hello.
There may well be some rewards from Brexit. The questions are whether:-
1. They will outweigh the costs. 2. Those rewards will be gained by those who primarily voted for Brexit. 3. Both the rewards and costs will be fairly shared. 4. Whether the manner of Brexiting i.e. a No Deal exit vs an exit with a deal will change the rewards/costs ratio.
So far most of the Brexiteers seem to have given very little thought to the “what happens next” argument.
Ireland excepted, all the biggest downsides from Brexit will be British. We stand to lose the most, by far. But we also, potentially, stand to gain the most. As the French have realized (see their “leaked memo” from the weekend).
I am (metaphorically) hold my scissors around my membership card. BoJo can call an election if he wants, but damn straight it's got to be October 14th. Last chance, Johnson.
I don't understand people like you and Big_G complaining about the direction the party is taking while still actively funding it. For heaven's sake, stop giving these people your money, you can always rejoin when the party is in a better state.
Boris can simply put forward a law stating the FPTA will not apply in this instance and an election can be called for October 14th with just a simple majority and he likely will
But wouldn't that directly conflict with the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, which didn't make any provision for a future law doing what you describe? At the very least, surely the courts would get involved to decide whether the FTPA or this new law should take precedence.
The previous parliament cannot bind this one, he is free to amend it is if he has the votes
Yeah, he's free to amend (or repeal) the FTPA, but that's not what's being talked about, is it?
People are saying he'd just put forward a bill saying "notwithstanding the FTPA, an election will be held on 14/10/19", but I don't see how that would work. In that case, you'd still have the FTPA on the statute book stating that any election would be invalid without a two-thirds majority.
I'm not sure of the mechanics but it seems to be a 'thing'
Maybe Dominic Cummings is Nick Timothy in disguise? An over hyped nonentity who thinks he is much cleverer than he actually is, and is much less clever than his gullible boss thinks he is. When are we going to get politicians and their advisors who have actually done proper jobs, and are therefore tested in the real world?
For a humungous fee, I will be available after the middle of October.
(Of course, I won’t be able to write any more PB headers but to those on here who think I write drivel - and have been saying so vociferously in recent days - that is probably a plus. So win-win all round. And you can then all debate The No Chocolate in Coffee Bill to your heart’s content...... ).
FWIW, you're one of the main reasons I bother to visit this site. I don't always like what you say, but I always find it serious and sensible. Then again, I also like pineapple on pizza, so..
@HYUFD do you think Boris will go into a GE campaign promising ‘No Deal’ at all costs? If not, prepare to be cannibalised by the Brexit Party.
He will promise as he has done to aim for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop as 52% of voters backed at the weekend with Survation at the weekend and if not agreed by October 31st then he will go to No Deal yes.
At the moment it is Corbyn Labour being cannabalised by the LDs not the Tories being cannabalised by the Brexit Party
The stubbornness on all sides is unedifying. The simplest resolution is now a referendum with a choice that is binding and gives Remain or Leave, with the latter, should it win, giving executive all power to pursue deal or no deal without that policy without being subject to parliamentary objection.
The stubbornness on all sides is unedifying. The simplest resolution is now a referendum with a choice that is binding and gives Remain or Leave, with the latter, should it win, giving executive all power to pursue deal or no deal without that policy without being subject to parliamentary objection.
Boris can simply put forward a law stating the FPTA will not apply in this instance and an election can be called for October 14th with just a simple majority and he likely will
You are forgetting the Lords.
Boris is going to pack the Lords with pro Brexit peers
Its debatable if he can do this. I read that the Lords will only accept 6 new peers a week?
Boris can simply put forward a law stating the FPTA will not apply in this instance and an election can be called for October 14th with just a simple majority and he likely will
But wouldn't that directly conflict with the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, which didn't make any provision for a future law doing what you describe? At the very least, surely the courts would get involved to decide whether the FTPA or this new law should take precedence.
Parliament is sovereign and can repeal and amend any previous law at will by simple majority as we do not have a written constitution
Boris can simply put forward a law stating the FPTA will not apply in this instance and an election can be called for October 14th with just a simple majority and he likely will
And the SNP will back it as they are likely to gain seats in buckets
The stubbornness on all sides is unedifying. The simplest resolution is now a referendum with a choice that is binding and gives Remain or Leave, with the latter, should it win, giving executive all power to pursue deal or no deal without that policy without being subject to parliamentary objection.
cheer up
there are more important things in life than Brexit. :-)
2 WWII analogies and it's only 10:30? You're spoiling us ambassador.
England is obsessed with WWII and past glories. I reckon it is all those repeats of Dad's Army that does it.
So those WWII past glories had nothing to do with Scotland?
I wonder what past glories Scotland does elebrate? Anything since the fourteenth century?
It's not like "Flower of England" gets much of an airing at rugby internationals.
You absolute thicko what has Flower of Scotland got to do with WWII.
I’m more partial to Scotland the Brave than Flower of Scotland to be honest.
I am as well, just annoyed at that clown ignoring the point and using something totally unrelated to the post.
The clown was actually making your point for you - for him an obtusely romanticised view of WWII is his symbol of national identity, and he doesn’t seem to understand that it’s not a universal belief.
Boris can simply put forward a law stating the FPTA will not apply in this instance and an election can be called for October 14th with just a simple majority and he likely will
You are forgetting the Lords.
Boris is going to pack the Lords with pro Brexit peers
Really? In time to call an election on October 14th?
@HYUFD do you think Boris will go into a GE campaign promising ‘No Deal’ at all costs? If not, prepare to be cannibalised by the Brexit Party.
He will promise as he has done to aim for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop as 52% of voters backed at the weekend with Survation at the weekend and if not agreed by October 31st then he will go to No Deal yes.
At the moment it is Corbyn Labour being cannabalised by the LDs not the Tories being cannabalised by the Brexit Party
But the WDA less the backstop is not on offer. And nobody seriously believes that it ever will be, whatever Johnson might say. Even if it did materialise the ERG and BXP would oppose it.
Boris can simply put forward a law stating the FPTA will not apply in this instance and an election can be called for October 14th with just a simple majority and he likely will
And the SNP will back it as they are likely to gain seats in buckets
Stringer, skinner, hoey, Austin, field, flint, that former Lib Dem..... o'mara not voting. It's going to be close, I expect about 15 Tory rebels, a handful will back out to maintain their job
See long grass, boot as hard as possible....its not happening.
Why are those sorts of headlines always phrased in such a way that makes the Gov't sound disappointed with the outcome and also that 7 years will be the maximum length of delay when actually a delay might well be politically convenient and it'll be the minimum length I expect ?
As hysterical meltdowns go, that has to be the calmest and most understated I’ve ever heard. Or perhaps No.10 is just issuing the usual line of nonsense.
Boris can simply put forward a law stating the FPTA will not apply in this instance and an election can be called for October 14th with just a simple majority and he likely will
But wouldn't that directly conflict with the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, which didn't make any provision for a future law doing what you describe? At the very least, surely the courts would get involved to decide whether the FTPA or this new law should take precedence.
Parliament is sovereign and can repeal and amend any previous law at will by simple majority as we do not have a written constitution
Of course - if the government can command even a simple majority...
@HYUFD do you think Boris will go into a GE campaign promising ‘No Deal’ at all costs? If not, prepare to be cannibalised by the Brexit Party.
He will promise as he has done to aim for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop as 52% of voters backed at the weekend with Survation at the weekend and if not agreed by October 31st then he will go to No Deal yes.
At the moment it is Corbyn Labour being cannabalised by the LDs not the Tories being cannabalised by the Brexit Party
But the WDA less the backstop is not on offer. And nobody seriously believes that it ever will be, whatever Johnson might say.
And even if it were, it would still clearly be impossible to negotiate and ratify it (including getting votes through the UK and EU parliaments) between October 15th and October 31st.
It is utter fantasy, a complete denial of reality. The amusing thing is that it will fail both ways as an electoral strategy: sensible people will immediately see that it is impossible to deliver a deal given his self-imposed deadline, and the Brexiteer loons will think that Boris can't be trusted not to do some deal.
This is quite incendiary. The rebels are in cahoots with the lawyers of a foreign power.
Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) Tweeted: 4. Johnson tried to make case he thinks will get a deal but there simply isn’t much faith in that argument - one present said ‘it’s a load of ....’ - on other side another in the room said it’s clear rebels have consulted with eu lawyers
If you want to be hyperbolic, THIS looks like the real coup.
Boris can simply put forward a law stating the FPTA will not apply in this instance and an election can be called for October 14th with just a simple majority and he likely will
Unlikely to win. Tory rebels and Opposition would vote against.
@HYUFD do you think Boris will go into a GE campaign promising ‘No Deal’ at all costs? If not, prepare to be cannibalised by the Brexit Party.
He will promise as he has done to aim for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop as 52% of voters backed at the weekend with Survation at the weekend and if not agreed by October 31st then he will go to No Deal yes.
At the moment it is Corbyn Labour being cannabalised by the LDs not the Tories being cannabalised by the Brexit Party
But the WDA less the backstop is not on offer. And nobody seriously believes that it ever will be, whatever Johnson might say. Even if it did materialise the ERG and BXP would oppose it.
Don't confuse our HYUFD. He cannot believe that others may not follow his leaders Cummings-Johnson.
Boris can simply put forward a law stating the FPTA will not apply in this instance and an election can be called for October 14th with just a simple majority and he likely will
But wouldn't that directly conflict with the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, which didn't make any provision for a future law doing what you describe? At the very least, surely the courts would get involved to decide whether the FTPA or this new law should take precedence.
The previous parliament cannot bind this one, he is free to amend it is if he has the votes
Yeah, he's free to amend (or repeal) the FTPA, but that's not what's being talked about, is it?
People are saying he'd just put forward a bill saying "notwithstanding the FTPA, an election will be held on 14/10/19", but I don't see how that would work. In that case, you'd still have the FTPA on the statute book stating that any election would be invalid without a two-thirds majority.
The FTPA does not say that. It gives two mechanisms for calling an early general election, one of which requires a motion to get a two thirds majority. It does not say any there are no other mechanisms, nor does it say that there are any circumstances in which an election is invalid. It cannot prevent a later Act overriding it. A one clause Act setting an election date would work in my view and would only need a simple majority.
@HYUFD do you think Boris will go into a GE campaign promising ‘No Deal’ at all costs? If not, prepare to be cannibalised by the Brexit Party.
He will promise as he has done to aim for the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop as 52% of voters backed at the weekend with Survation at the weekend and if not agreed by October 31st then he will go to No Deal yes.
At the moment it is Corbyn Labour being cannabalised by the LDs not the Tories being cannabalised by the Brexit Party
Remind me which party had control of South Oxfordshire and the Vale of the White Horse before the Lib Dems took them in May. Was it:
a) Labour b) the Brexit Party c) Jean-Claude Juncker's Merry Men d) the Conservatives
As hysterical meltdowns go, that has to be the calmest and most understated I’ve ever heard. Or perhaps No.10 is just issuing the usual line of nonsense.
Never underestimate the power of projection. I am passionate about my cause. You are a fanatic. They are having a hysterical meltdown.
Apologies for repeating, but I originally put this on the wrong thread (I’m new!). There are ministerial statements from Johnson, Javid and Williamson before the application for an emergency debate on Brexit gets heard. What’s to stop those statements taking 4 hours each?
I don't want to moan but do we need all this WW2 stuff?
Blair's speech yesterday was interesting - though as I mentioned before there was one enormous gaffe about train travelling times to Paris and Newcastle.
However there were a few things unanswered.
1) He said no deal would not be the end but just the beginning. Perhaps but what about revoke? Does he seriously believe that will settle things either even if there is a 'People's Vote'? What future inside the EU are they offering?
2) He touched on how Brexit reflected a wider cultural cleavage. This was welcome but again what is to be done about this? How can we avoid moving to the more identity-based tribal politics of Northern Ireland? Or did he think what was needed was for one side to 'win' over the other?
3) Elites versus the people. He rightly pointed out the dangers of the people versus parliament argument and how the referendum had contributed to this but he didn't seem to realise that the referendum result, in fact the mere holding of the referendum, was a symptom of political breakdown. Declining turnouts and perverse results through FPTP are not helping parliament's legitimacy. There is also the issue of corruption. A sense that politics is bought by vested interests, that MPs discreetly feather their own nests and are too close to powerful figures in the world of commerce and finance whom they are supposed to be regulating. Also a quite correct sense that this is all being facilitated by the increasingly open world we live in. Too many seem comforted by the idea that it's all about inequality, that some people feel (wrongly?) that they are losing out whilst the selected few do ostentatiously well. Actually many believe that the system itself is rotten.
That is a very interesting post. Worthy of a header, perhaps?
It is. I don’t agree with all of it - particularly the third point, which I think something of a caricature - but I’d enjoy debating it separately from the usual Brexit nonsense.
Comments
There are even bigger risks in falling in with Cumming's cunning plan
To date the Brexiteers havent said what they will do which is a clear failing, but success or failure will depend on what they introduce as policies post an exit. Atm as per your criticism there may be zilch they have thought of, on the other hand there may be a series of initiatives they go for which make life better.
In either case I suspect the plans of both parties will be largely irrelevant to any constraints imposed by the EU. Our EU failings have mostly been driven by domestic politicians.
He said yesterday he did not want an election.
If Labour are too frit to accept an election then it wouldn't surprise me to see the Tories polling 38% to 40% plus by the weekend. And Labour potentially polling below the Lib Dems.
And a second one: what are we going to do with this further extension, assuming we get it? What will it be for? For a humungous fee, I will be available after the middle of October.
(Of course, I won’t be able to write any more PB headers but to those on here who think I write drivel - and have been saying so vociferously in recent days - that is probably a plus. So win-win all round. And you can then all debate The No Chocolate in Coffee Bill to your heart’s content......
https://twitter.com/frankfieldteam/status/1167052042860470274
Half of me hopes the extension bill tomorrow passes, and then the EU says "sod it, 5 year extension".
Esepecially when the public are fed up to the eye teeth with all of this, and want it settled, one way or the other.
There has to be a good chance that they refuse. What happens then? Presumably revoke, but does it have the numbers?
That is why his attempts to goad parliament into doing what he wants get more bizarre by the day - prorogue parliament, deselect former chancellors and leadership candidates. Be fascinating to see what else he has up if sleeve if parliament still refuses to play ball. Johnson to propose a VONC in himself?
Of course there are error bars on the MP numbers and more politics to happen, but this is a credible poll. The changes are vs GE17, and it is noteworthy that the numbers are much closer in terms of the current composition of parliament.
That means Boris Tories and the Brexit Party v the LDs and SNP with Corbyn Labour squeezed to death in the middle
DUP + SNP + Majority of Conservative Party should get us to an election even if the Labour Party is hiding behind the sofa.
I don't think it will be especially close. There will be Tory rebels who we've not seen speaking yet - there is no advantage in coming out early.
GE used to force No Deal -> Lab + SNP oppose
GE not used to force No Deal -> Lab + SNP support
And DUP + SNP + Cons != 2/3rds
People are saying he'd just put forward a bill saying "notwithstanding the FTPA, an election will be held on 14/10/19", but I don't see how that would work. In that case, you'd still have the FTPA on the statute book stating that any election would be invalid without a two-thirds majority.
So cannibalisation is on the agenda whatever he does.
Neat.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/we-re-cousins-genetic-map-of-britain-and-ireland-shows-common-ancestry-1.4005491
sort of says whats all the fuss about
Parliament would be as deadlocked as it is now, irrespective of any given party leader’s view.
Unless, of course, Labour agreed to a change of leader or an end to FPTP...
But I don’t think Brexit will happen, now.
Then again, I also like pineapple on pizza, so..
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1168856873975603202
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1168857042012057600
At the moment it is Corbyn Labour being cannabalised by the LDs not the Tories being cannabalised by the Brexit Party
https://twitter.com/TaliFraser/status/1168858360608899072
there are more important things in life than Brexit. :-)
Im looking at scone recipes.
Or perhaps No.10 is just issuing the usual line of nonsense.
It is utter fantasy, a complete denial of reality. The amusing thing is that it will fail both ways as an electoral strategy: sensible people will immediately see that it is impossible to deliver a deal given his self-imposed deadline, and the Brexiteer loons will think that Boris can't be trusted not to do some deal.
Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) Tweeted:
4. Johnson tried to make case he thinks will get a deal but there simply isn’t much faith in that argument - one present said ‘it’s a load of ....’ - on other side another in the room said it’s clear rebels have consulted with eu lawyers
If you want to be hyperbolic, THIS looks like the real coup.
a) Labour
b) the Brexit Party
c) Jean-Claude Juncker's Merry Men
d) the Conservatives
I am passionate about my cause.
You are a fanatic.
They are having a hysterical meltdown.
I don’t agree with all of it - particularly the third point, which I think something of a caricature - but I’d enjoy debating it separately from the usual Brexit nonsense.