Regarding the header, the French WERE prepared for the Germans to go around them. They just couldn't politically (and cost wise) extend to the coast as it would be telling Belgium that they would be abandoned in the event of a German invasion as they'd just sit on the (extended) Maginot line.
Course, the French probably wouldn't have fortified the Ardennes region in either case.
"No deal cannot BOTH be perfectly manageable (for U.K. audiences) and yet so terrible that the threat of it will force the EU to cave in."
Of course, it's far more likely that it will be terrible for the UK but manageable for the rest of the EU.
Not true.
No deal can be a problem but one we are prepared to live with to gain the benefits of freedom and the ability to set our own laws, customs and have our own courts interpret them.
On the other hand the EU and Ireland especially gain no benefits from no deal. They suffer the consequences but only we reap the rewards.
The fact that you still fail to recognise there are any rewards to Brexit is why you are struggling with this misapprehension.
They maintain the integrity of the EU. It's not all about the money, honey.
Surely the integrity of the EU is, ultimately, also about money.
Yes I agree with that and hesitated as I typed - it is about the overall wealth of the member states.
What other excuses will Labour MPs come up with not to face the electorate then?
Would such a bill get past the Lords?
I think the general conclussion on here at 1am this morning was that the Lords wouldn't want to be seen blocking a general election that's been agreed by the Commons.
The DUP are her true spiritual brothers and sisters. Perhaps she should do a test run for when Arlene and the Unionist political class decamp to the mainland after reunification.
Who is going to be the first to complain about 'more ***** immigrants"?
Too clever by half. If you are the PM you make the call whether to ask for an early election. Brown trailed that he would then didn't. May said she wouldn't then she did. Boris said he wouldn't but is forcing his opponents to make him ask for one. But does that work ? It's like the Rugby playing class bully saying that the four computer code geeks ganged up on him and made him give up his lunch money. At best it shreds your own brand as strong and at worst no one believes you.
And where does prorogation fit in all this. Why burn all that political capital, provoke counter mobilisation, involve the monarchy, look undemocratic if just one week later you are then disolving rather than prorouging ? I just don't see a coherent narrative.
Bah, you don't disrupt OODA loops with a coherent narrative...
I am curious though whether Darth Cummings has wargamed getting sacked?
Manchester Originals based at Old Trafford, Manchester Northern Superchargers based at Headingley, Leeds Birmingham Phoenix based at Edgbaston, Birmingham Trent Rockets based at Trent Bridge, Nottingham Welsh Fire based at Sophia Gardens, Cardiff London Spirit based at Lord's, London Oval Invincibles based at The Oval, London Southern Brave based at Ageas Bowl, Southampton
These sound like Quiddich teams.
Birmingham Phoenix ?!
I'm not a fan of the rebranding of Warwickshire to Birmingham but the "Birmingham Bears" is clearly the brand to go with.
Already owned by the county.
But the "Birmingham Phoenix" squad, "Warwickshire" and "Birmingham bears" are all going to be identical surely ?
So Grieve thinks it's all up to Corbyn as to whether they'll be an election, but essentially seems confident that the anti-no deal will pass.
A great feat of strategic positioning and control at No. 10 ? It doesn't look like it.
Does it matter if the anti-no deal legislation passes before an election?
If Boris goes into the election saying he will not extend under any circumstances and if he wins a majority then he can either repeal the legislation or whip his MPs to reject the extension.
Then the election will be fought under "a vote for Con is a vote for No Deal." It's difficult to see a Con majority without the support of the conservative moderates.
Indeed. As a one-time Tory moderate party member, activist and voter I will not be voting for the Brexit-Party-Lite/ Conservative In Name Only Party, however much they try and worry me about Corbyn. A Corbyn government would be catastrophic, but reversible, God willing, but a no-deal will damage our economy and international reputation for generations.
I don't want to moan but do we need all this WW2 stuff?
Blair's speech yesterday was interesting - though as I mentioned before there was one enormous gaffe about train travelling times to Paris and Newcastle.
However there were a few things unanswered.
1) He said no deal would not be the end but just the beginning. Perhaps but what about revoke? Does he seriously believe that will settle things either even if there is a 'People's Vote'? What future inside the EU are they offering?
2) He touched on how Brexit reflected a wider cultural cleavage. This was welcome but again what is to be done about this? How can we avoid moving to the more identity-based tribal politics of Northern Ireland? Or did he think what was needed was for one side to 'win' over the other?
3) Elites versus the people. He rightly pointed out the dangers of the people versus parliament argument and how the referendum had contributed to this but he didn't seem to realise that the referendum result, in fact the mere holding of the referendum, was a symptom of political breakdown. Declining turnouts and perverse results through FPTP are not helping parliament's legitimacy. There is also the issue of corruption. A sense that politics is bought by vested interests, that MPs discreetly feather their own nests and are too close to powerful figures in the world of commerce and finance whom they are supposed to be regulating. Also a quite correct sense that this is all being facilitated by the increasingly open world we live in. Too many seem comforted by the idea that it's all about inequality, that some people feel (wrongly?) that they are losing out whilst the selected few do ostentatiously well. Actually many believe that the system itself is rotten.
Regarding the header, the French WERE prepared for the Germans to go around them. They just couldn't politically (and cost wise) extend to the coast as it would be telling Belgium that they would be abandoned in the event of a German invasion as they'd just sit on the (extended) Maginot line.
Course, the French probably wouldn't have fortified the Ardennes region in either case.
Exactly. Given that is what the Germans did in 1914 and nearly won, it would have been unthinkable not to think they would use the same tactic again.
Ardennes obviously the key failing but even that could have been manageable if it wasn't for the other faults
So Grieve thinks it's all up to Corbyn as to whether they'll be an election, but essentially seems confident that the anti-no deal will pass.
A great feat of strategic positioning and control at No. 10 ? It doesn't look like it.
Does it matter if the anti-no deal legislation passes before an election?
If Boris goes into the election saying he will not extend under any circumstances and if he wins a majority then he can either repeal the legislation or whip his MPs to reject the extension.
Then the election will be fought under "a vote for Con is a vote for No Deal." It's difficult to see a Con majority without the support of the conservative moderates.
Indeed. As a one-time Tory moderate party member, activist and voter I will not be voting for the Brexit-Party-Lite/ Conservative In Name Only Party, however much they try and worry me about Corbyn. A Corbyn government would be catastrophic, but reversible, God willing, but a no-deal will damage our economy and international reputation for generations.
Am in same position and agree. Of course, I very much hope Corbyn has no majority but its a risk I am willing to take, especially as no deal might lead to Corbyn anyway.
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
Manchester Originals based at Old Trafford, Manchester Northern Superchargers based at Headingley, Leeds Birmingham Phoenix based at Edgbaston, Birmingham Trent Rockets based at Trent Bridge, Nottingham Welsh Fire based at Sophia Gardens, Cardiff London Spirit based at Lord's, London Oval Invincibles based at The Oval, London Southern Brave based at Ageas Bowl, Southampton
These sound like Quiddich teams.
Birmingham Phoenix ?!
I'm not a fan of the rebranding of Warwickshire to Birmingham but the "Birmingham Bears" is clearly the brand to go with.
Already owned by the county.
But the "Birmingham Phoenix" squad, "Warwickshire" and "Birmingham bears" are all going to be identical surely ?
I think the eight franchises are different entities. In hindsight, it was a smart move by Warwickshire to nab the Birmingham Bears name.
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
Maybe Dominic Cummings is Nick Timothy in disguise? An over hyped nonentity who thinks he is much cleverer than he actually is, and is much less clever than his gullible boss thinks he is.
Well he certainly ran rings around REMAIN in 2016.
So he tells us. Remain lost by a very small margin, so no, hardly running rings. Farage and his crypto fascists appealed to a xenophobic feeling and for that people who gloat about Leave (with a deal) winning should feel ashamed. Whether Cummings pushed it over the line with his fake news and social media campaigns is only definite in his egotistical little mind.
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
Indeed. It should be very easy to make the date legally binding if that's what's really concerning Labour/Remainers...
But even if they do that I have a feeling Lab/Remain will throw up other excuses not to face the electorate.
At the rate parliament is going, Johnson will probably want to change the prorogation dates anyway. The prorogation threat has already germained the remain sides moves against him.
If push and shove come he'll stick Corbyn into bat rather than sign the letter of abject surrender (And I say that as a fan of May's deal) that has been stuck in front of his nose. He still has a few cards to play before that (Trying for an election under FTPA, trying for an election with a 1 line bill to get round the FTPA) but Corbyn becoming PM without an election is a real possibility. I can't see the likes of Grieve, Greening and even the Lib Dems allowing him to stay on very long at all so we'll get an election after CORBYN has signed the extension.
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
I was just mulling over whether the short Bill to change the date of an election could be done via another clause in the Bill about Article 50. One would think the short title could be made broad enough and that would have the added benefit of ensuring that the Gvt didn’t seem to find a way to avoid the article 50 Act being made, if it wants an election.
I believe that the govt losing a VONC does not automatically stop other parliamentary business - there is a 14-day window in which a new government can be formed before a GE is called. Parliament would continue to sit during that time and the no deal legislation would, no doubt, be passed. So losing a VONC is not a way out for Johnson.
At the rate parliament is going, Johnson will probably want to change the prorogation dates anyway. The prorogation threat has already germained the remain sides moves against him.
If push and shove come he'll stick Corbyn into bat rather than sign the letter of abject surrender (And I say that as a fan of May's deal) that has been stuck in front of his nose. He still has a few cards to play before that but Corbyn becoming PM without an election is a real possibility. I can't see the likes of Grieve, Greening and even the Lib Dems allowing him to stay on very long at all so we'll get an election after CORBYN has signed the extension.
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
Indeed. It should be very easy to make the date legally binding if that's what's really concerning Labour/Remainers...
But even if they do that I have a feeling Lab/Remain will throw up other excuses not to face the electorate.
AIUI the problem is that an 'event' could cause the PM to change the date. Like foot and mouth etc. Do labour trust Boris not to have an event? By which I mean twist normality into something 'exceptional'
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
Indeed. It should be very easy to make the date legally binding is that's what's really concerning Labour/Remainers...
But even if they do that I have a feeling Lab/Remain will throw up other excuses not to face the electorate.
There are a lot of members in this Parliament who will not be in the next one. More than usual. Will Bercow really stand again? The members of TiG or whatever they are calling themselves this week. Sundry "independent" members (did O'Mara follow through on his promise to stand down as soon as Parliament returned by the way?). A number of Tory remainers. Another gridlock is by no means impossible, the country is fairly evenly divided, but it is past time to roll the dice and see if something different comes up.
"No deal cannot BOTH be perfectly manageable (for U.K. audiences) and yet so terrible that the threat of it will force the EU to cave in."
Of course, it's far more likely that it will be terrible for the UK but manageable for the rest of the EU.
Not true.
No deal can be a problem but one we are prepared to live with to gain the benefits of freedom and the ability to set our own laws, customs and have our own courts interpret them.
On the other hand the EU and Ireland especially gain no benefits from no deal. They suffer the consequences but only we reap the rewards.
The fact that you still fail to recognise there are any rewards to Brexit is why you are struggling with this misapprehension.
Well, that doesn't stop no deal being terrible for the UK and manageable for the EU (even if you see benefits from no deal).
Of course it's not only how bad No Deal is for each side, it is what are the costs of backing down? For the EU the costs might be very high: for all the countries that still want to be in the EU, they and the EU are much better off if it doesn't back down in such a way in any negotiation with third parties. Being able to stick to an agreed plan and maintain unity is pretty valuable, probably essential. It's not jut about maintaining the integrity of the single market (although that too is important). Whereas on the UK side, there clearly is no unity, and no sign of any plan, so backing down on the 31st Oct Do or Die pledge, doesn't have any cost at all, except to Johnson's career (which is another plus for the rest of us...)
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
Indeed. It should be very easy to make the date legally binding if that's what's really concerning Labour/Remainers...
But even if they do that I have a feeling Lab/Remain will throw up other excuses not to face the electorate.
Well since Johnson seems to have given his opponents a great opportunity to make him look extremely foolish you can hardly blame them for taking it.
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
An election on 14th October would not give a new government (or the current one) time to do a deal and get it ratified before 31st October. That is the issue that will need to be resolved.
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
This morning it's clear that the only person who can now save Boris Johnson from abject Parliamentary humiliation and emasculation is Jeremy Corbyn.
Not really, the proposed law is poorly worded and allows the government to refuse consent at third reading as it has a direct impact on royal prerogative
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
re "The slightly bizarre idea", there were wiseacres here and elsewhere claiming that the Tories would be toast if an election were to be held before we had actually left the EU.
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
Most Leavers, they report, are not enthused by the prospect of No Deal. "This suggests something of an enthusiasm gap: Remain voters seem likely to feel politically engaged by a sense of defeat, Leave voters appear more likely to shrug than start dancing in the streets."
So you can imagine a General Election scenario where Labour and Lib Dem voters are motivated to turn out; where those Leavers who are motivated do turn out, but vote for the Brexit Party; and where the unmotivated Leavers stay home and fail to vote Conservative. Apart from HYUFD and Philip, that is.
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
Indeed. It should be very easy to make the date legally binding is that's what's really concerning Labour/Remainers...
But even if they do that I have a feeling Lab/Remain will throw up other excuses not to face the electorate.
There are a lot of members in this Parliament who will not be in the next one. More than usual. Will Bercow really stand again? The members of TiG or whatever they are calling themselves this week. Sundry "independent" members (did O'Mara follow through on his promise to stand down as soon as Parliament returned by the way?). A number of Tory remainers. Another gridlock is by no means impossible, the country is fairly evenly divided, but it is past time to roll the dice and see if something different comes up.
Bercow wont stand. If Boris gets his majority he wont get back in as speaker and wont get ennobled. He wont want to sit on the backbenches for 5 years
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
An election on 14th October would not give a new government (or the current one) time to do a deal and get it ratified before 31st October. That is the issue that will need to be resolved.
Nor will a three month extension with Christmas in the middle.
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
An election on 14th October would not give a new government (or the current one) time to do a deal and get it ratified before 31st October. That is the issue that will need to be resolved.
If the new government wants a deal they can ask for an extension for that purpose after the election. I suspect a deal would still be done on the 17th but I accept that there might be legislative restraints. We just need a decision.
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
Indeed. It should be very easy to make the date legally binding if that's what's really concerning Labour/Remainers...
But even if they do that I have a feeling Lab/Remain will throw up other excuses not to face the electorate.
Well since Johnson seems to have given his opponents a great opportunity to make him look extremely foolish you can hardly blame them for taking it.
I don't see why he looks foolish. He has a paper majority of 1 but he has about 20 MPs he cannot count on. So he loses control and we effectively have no government. He wants an election to resolve that. Given the lack of alternatives we all do. Surely.
If this law were to pass, it not not compel the PM to seek an extension like the last one, the EU will have to offer one, he can surely simply threaten permanent veto of everything to put them off offering one?
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
An election on 14th October would not give a new government (or the current one) time to do a deal and get it ratified before 31st October. That is the issue that will need to be resolved.
Nothing to prevent a new government from extending if that is what they wish to do.
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
Indeed. It should be very easy to make the date legally binding is that's what's really concerning Labour/Remainers...
But even if they do that I have a feeling Lab/Remain will throw up other excuses not to face the electorate.
There are a lot of members in this Parliament who will not be in the next one. More than usual. Will Bercow really stand again? The members of TiG or whatever they are calling themselves this week. Sundry "independent" members (did O'Mara follow through on his promise to stand down as soon as Parliament returned by the way?). A number of Tory remainers. Another gridlock is by no means impossible, the country is fairly evenly divided, but it is past time to roll the dice and see if something different comes up.
Bercow wont stand. If Boris gets his majority he wont get back in as speaker and wont get ennobled. He wont want to sit on the backbenches for 5 years
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
An election on 14th October would not give a new government (or the current one) time to do a deal and get it ratified before 31st October. That is the issue that will need to be resolved.
If the new government wants a deal they can ask for an extension for that purpose after the election. I suspect a deal would still be done on the 17th but I accept that there might be legislative restraints. We just need a decision.
So you campaign on “October 31st Do or Die” but if it works, it won’t be October 31st? How would that not unravel during an election campaign?
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
Indeed. It should be very easy to make the date legally binding if that's what's really concerning Labour/Remainers...
But even if they do that I have a feeling Lab/Remain will throw up other excuses not to face the electorate.
Well since Johnson seems to have given his opponents a great opportunity to make him look extremely foolish you can hardly blame them for taking it.
I don't see why he looks foolish. He has a paper majority of 1 but he has about 20 MPs he cannot count on. So he loses control and we effectively have no government. He wants an election to resolve that. Given the lack of alternatives we all do. Surely.
both sides want to dump the issue on the electorate but only in a format where they think they can win, Weve got lots more of this nonsense in the pipeline.
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
An election on 14th October would not give a new government (or the current one) time to do a deal and get it ratified before 31st October. That is the issue that will need to be resolved.
Quite so. For that matter it might also not even give time to form a new government, if the result is inconclusive. And it certainly wouldn't give enough time to put in place the emergency no-deal legislation which would be required on a whole host of issues, nor to agree mitigation measures with non-EU countries (let alone with the EU itself).
It would be, in other words, massively irresponsible to hold an election without first securing an extension. That is why Boris's 'do-or-die' pledge is so spectacularly stupid; there is literally no way in which it can be met without utter disaster, even on its own terms. The only upside will be that Boris gets all the blame whichever way it fails.
Meanwhile Nigel Farage will be rubbing his hands in glee. The Quisling Boris narrative has been nicely set up... by Boris.
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
Putting aside the rights and wrongs here, Boris has the potential to look seriously stupid here in front of the electorate (who are still in the early stages of trying to evaluate what he is like as a person and PM).
He has taken a risk with how he has played this but its clearly an existential one - for him and the Tory party.
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
An election on 14th October would not give a new government (or the current one) time to do a deal and get it ratified before 31st October. That is the issue that will need to be resolved.
Quite so. For that matter it might also not even give time to form a new government, if the result is inconclusive. And it certainly wouldn't give enough time to put in place the emergency no-deal legislation which would be required on a whole host of issues, nor to agree mitigation measures with non-EU countries (let alone with the EU itself).
It would be, in other words, massively irresponsible to hold an election without first securing an extension. That is why Boris's 'do-or-die' pledge is so spectacularly stupid; there is literally no way in which it can be met without utter disaster, even on its own terms. The only upside will be that Boris gets all the blame whichever way it fails.
Meanwhile Nigel Farage will be rubbing his hands in glee. The Quisling Boris narrative has been nicely set up... by Boris.
I think we are well beyond logical reasoning on both sides in terms of an election
At the rate parliament is going, Johnson will probably want to change the prorogation dates anyway. The prorogation threat has already germained the remain sides moves against him.
If push and shove come he'll stick Corbyn into bat rather than sign the letter of abject surrender (And I say that as a fan of May's deal) that has been stuck in front of his nose. He still has a few cards to play before that but Corbyn becoming PM without an election is a real possibility. I can't see the likes of Grieve, Greening and even the Lib Dems allowing him to stay on very long at all so we'll get an election after CORBYN has signed the extension.
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
Indeed. It should be very easy to make the date legally binding if that's what's really concerning Labour/Remainers...
But even if they do that I have a feeling Lab/Remain will throw up other excuses not to face the electorate.
Well since Johnson seems to have given his opponents a great opportunity to make him look extremely foolish you can hardly blame them for taking it.
I don't see why he looks foolish. He has a paper majority of 1 but he has about 20 MPs he cannot count on. So he loses control and we effectively have no government. He wants an election to resolve that. Given the lack of alternatives we all do. Surely.
An election is not likely to resolve the impasse. And if you think the country is gagging for one may I introduce you to Brenda from Bristol?
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
re The forthcoming Act - Is there anything stopping Johnson resigning in order not to sign the letter. If he is PM and doesn't sign it obviously it'll be challenged (succesfully) through the courts. I think if he can't get an election he'll genuinely stick Corbyn into bat with one being called shortly thereafter.
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
Most Leavers, they report, are not enthused by the prospect of No Deal. "This suggests something of an enthusiasm gap: Remain voters seem likely to feel politically engaged by a sense of defeat, Leave voters appear more likely to shrug than start dancing in the streets."
So you can imagine a General Election scenario where Labour and Lib Dem voters are motivated to turn out; where those Leavers who are motivated do turn out, but vote for the Brexit Party; and where the unmotivated Leavers stay home and fail to vote Conservative. Apart from HYUFD and Philip, that is.
As a one time Conservative activist I think the scenario you depict is quite likely. I think that Corbyn is very unpopular, but equally the scare stories about him wrecking the economy will have less impact coming from a party that has a PM that says "fuck business" and is taking one of the biggest peacetime gambles with our prosperity in recent history. Many people will stay at home. It could be won or lost on turnout/apathy perhaps. No absolutes though, I don't want to sound like a pound shop Nostradamus/HYUFD!
Why are so many Irish nationalists voting for a party that won't take its seats? Particularly given the DUP role since 2016?
SF has never taken its seats in the UK as it sees it as a foreign jurisdiction. The Irish government have tried to get them to do so to ward off Brexit, but they still wont. It;s a long standing policy but probably getting less popular with the elctorate especially as the local Parlt isnt sitting.
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
Indeed. It should be very easy to make the date legally binding if that's what's really concerning Labour/Remainers...
But even if they do that I have a feeling Lab/Remain will throw up other excuses not to face the electorate.
Well since Johnson seems to have given his opponents a great opportunity to make him look extremely foolish you can hardly blame them for taking it.
I don't see why he looks foolish. He has a paper majority of 1 but he has about 20 MPs he cannot count on. So he loses control and we effectively have no government. He wants an election to resolve that. Given the lack of alternatives we all do. Surely.
An election is not likely to resolve the impasse. And if you think the country is gagging for one may I introduce you to Brenda from Bristol?
Parliament is not likely to resolve the impasse. They have tried and failed. Repeatedly.
Why are so many Irish nationalists voting for a party that won't take its seats? Particularly given the DUP role since 2016?
SF has never taken its seats in the UK as it sees it as a foreign jurisdiction. The Irish government have tried to get them to do so to ward off Brexit, but they still wont. It;s a long standing policy but probably getting less popular with the elctorate especially as the local Parlt isnt sitting.
On a related note, how has the UUP failed to make gains out of a situation where must be a load of unionists who voted Remain, and unionists who want Stormont back.
How likely is it that Corbyn will get his 14 days to try to form a government? Surely that's what happens if the government loses a confidence vote but the Commons refuses to allow an election.
re The forthcoming Act - Is there anything stopping Johnson resigning in order not to sign the letter. If he is PM and doesn't sign it obviously it'll be challenged (succesfully) through the courts. I think if he can't get an election he'll genuinely stick Corbyn into bat with one being called shortly thereafter.
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
That's a different question. If Parliament had the balls to revoke before 31st October that would be fair enough. But no more procrastination.
From the polling. That 52 per cent that keeps being quoted as wanting Brexit and supporting the strategy is clearly more like 40 per cent.....
"Indeed, around one in five of those who voted Leave say they would be angry, betrayed or disappointed were the UK to leave the EU without a deal."
Still a different question. Do people want a further delay? What little polling I have seen says no.
'Not wanting further delay' could, as defined, include some of those saying "Revoke, for heaven's sake"
If this Parliament was to vote for revoke I would be furious because it is not the basis on which nearly all of them were elected but it would at least be a decision and they could face the electorate in due course. What we cannot have is more procrastination and delay to no purpose.
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
Indeed. It should be very easy to make the date legally binding if that's what's really concerning Labour/Remainers...
But even if they do that I have a feeling Lab/Remain will throw up other excuses not to face the electorate.
Well since Johnson seems to have given his opponents a great opportunity to make him look extremely foolish you can hardly blame them for taking it.
I don't see why he looks foolish. He has a paper majority of 1 but he has about 20 MPs he cannot count on. So he loses control and we effectively have no government. He wants an election to resolve that. Given the lack of alternatives we all do. Surely.
An election is not likely to resolve the impasse. And if you think the country is gagging for one may I introduce you to Brenda from Bristol?
Parliament is not likely to resolve the impasse. They have tried and failed. Repeatedly.
Stephen Kinnock gave a most weird interview yesterday about how not voting for the Withdrawal agreement was not about the Withdrawal agreement yesterday. Tony Livesey or might have been Evan Davies rightly called him out on just how seriously weird he sounded.
How likely is it that Corbyn will get his 14 days to try to form a government? Surely that's what happens if the government loses a confidence vote but the Commons refuses to allow an election.
No - it's not a confidence vote in terms of the FTPA.
2 WWII analogies and it's only 10:30? You're spoiling us ambassador.
England is obsessed with WWII and past glories. I reckon it is all those repeats of Dad's Army that does it.
All of it's glories are British, and you as a Scot are part of that history. Scotland was not as a an unwilling participant in the British Empire, and the two world wars but many could argue was culturally central to the culture of conquest and militarism. Some of the finest and fearsome regiments of the British army are Scottish. Just ask the Irish!!
How likely is it that Corbyn will get his 14 days to try to form a government? Surely that's what happens if the government loses a confidence vote but the Commons refuses to allow an election.
Some of us have suggested it will be better for the Conservatives if Jeremy Corbyn and Labour extend A50 and call an election, as this would mean Boris can run an insurgent election campaign, so the answer to your question might depend on whether Dominic Cummings shares that view.
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
Indeed. It should be very easy to make the date legally binding if that's what's really concerning Labour/Remainers...
But even if they do that I have a feeling Lab/Remain will throw up other excuses not to face the electorate.
Well since Johnson seems to have given his opponents a great opportunity to make him look extremely foolish you can hardly blame them for taking it.
I don't see why he looks foolish. He has a paper majority of 1 but he has about 20 MPs he cannot count on. So he loses control and we effectively have no government. He wants an election to resolve that. Given the lack of alternatives we all do. Surely.
An election is not likely to resolve the impasse. And if you think the country is gagging for one may I introduce you to Brenda from Bristol?
Parliament is not likely to resolve the impasse. They have tried and failed. Repeatedly.
Stephen Kinnock gave a most weird interview yesterday about how not voting for the Withdrawal agreement was not about the Withdrawal agreement yesterday. Tony Livesey or might have been Evan Davies rightly called him out on just how seriously weird he sounded.
I do think that there are remainers who seriously regret their votes on May's deal. As they should. Kinnock seems to be one of them. But I don't know how we get back to that.
Why are so many Irish nationalists voting for a party that won't take its seats? Particularly given the DUP role since 2016?
SF has never taken its seats in the UK as it sees it as a foreign jurisdiction. The Irish government have tried to get them to do so to ward off Brexit, but they still wont. It;s a long standing policy but probably getting less popular with the elctorate especially as the local Parlt isnt sitting.
People vote for them knowing that plus it also serves as a useful reminder to anyone who thinks that Irish Nationalism is now only a historical oddity.
re The forthcoming Act - Is there anything stopping Johnson resigning in order not to sign the letter. If he is PM and doesn't sign it obviously it'll be challenged (succesfully) through the courts. I think if he can't get an election he'll genuinely stick Corbyn into bat with one being called shortly thereafter.
re The forthcoming Act - Is there anything stopping Johnson resigning in order not to sign the letter. If he is PM and doesn't sign it obviously it'll be challenged (succesfully) through the courts. I think if he can't get an election he'll genuinely stick Corbyn into bat with one being called shortly thereafter.
Somewhat undermines the "don't put Corbyn into Downing Street" election message when Boris has put him there
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
Most Leavers, they report, are not enthused by the prospect of No Deal. "This suggests something of an enthusiasm gap: Remain voters seem likely to feel politically engaged by a sense of defeat, Leave voters appear more likely to shrug than start dancing in the streets."
So you can imagine a General Election scenario where Labour and Lib Dem voters are motivated to turn out; where those Leavers who are motivated do turn out, but vote for the Brexit Party; and where the unmotivated Leavers stay home and fail to vote Conservative. Apart from HYUFD and Philip, that is.
As a one time Conservative activist I think the scenario you depict is quite likely. I think that Corbyn is very unpopular, but equally the scare stories about him wrecking the economy will have less impact coming from a party that has a PM that says "fuck business" and is taking one of the biggest peacetime gambles with our prosperity in recent history. Many people will stay at home. It could be won or lost on turnout/apathy perhaps. No absolutes though, I don't want to sound like a pound shop Nostradamus/HYUFD!
My reading of it is that there will be a very strong vote to get it done and that will be recruiting sergeant for the blues, the red yellow and green will be strong but fatally split
re The forthcoming Act - Is there anything stopping Johnson resigning in order not to sign the letter. If he is PM and doesn't sign it obviously it'll be challenged (succesfully) through the courts. I think if he can't get an election he'll genuinely stick Corbyn into bat with one being called shortly thereafter.
Nothing to stop him resigning, but the Queen's government must be carried on, so a new prime minister would have to be appointed immediately. If the government has clearly lost its majority by then, there's no reason Johnson's replacement would be a Conservative, as far as I can see.
re The forthcoming Act - Is there anything stopping Johnson resigning in order not to sign the letter. If he is PM and doesn't sign it obviously it'll be challenged (succesfully) through the courts. I think if he can't get an election he'll genuinely stick Corbyn into bat with one being called shortly thereafter.
Nothing to stop him resigning, but the Queen's government must be carried on, so a new prime minister would have to be appointed immediately. If the government has clearly lost its majority by then, there's no reason Johnson's replacement would be a Conservative, as far as I can see.
But that's the point, Johnson wouldn't want it to be another Tory. He'd want to be Leader of the Opposition.
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
Indeed. It should be very easy to make the date legally binding if that's what's really concerning Labour/Remainers...
But even if they do that I have a feeling Lab/Remain will throw up other excuses not to face the electorate.
Well since Johnson seems to have given his opponents a great opportunity to make him look extremely foolish you can hardly blame them for taking it.
I don't see why he looks foolish. He has a paper majority of 1 but he has about 20 MPs he cannot count on. So he loses control and we effectively have no government. He wants an election to resolve that. Given the lack of alternatives we all do. Surely.
An election is not likely to resolve the impasse. And if you think the country is gagging for one may I introduce you to Brenda from Bristol?
Parliament is not likely to resolve the impasse. They have tried and failed. Repeatedly.
Stephen Kinnock gave a most weird interview yesterday about how not voting for the Withdrawal agreement was not about the Withdrawal agreement yesterday. Tony Livesey or might have been Evan Davies rightly called him out on just how seriously weird he sounded.
I do think that there are remainers who seriously regret their votes on May's deal. As they should. Kinnock seems to be one of them. But I don't know how we get back to that.
We don't, May is gone as is her deal and one of her opponents is now in her place.
If Boris gets a deal then maybe Remainers shouldn't make the same mistake for a forth time, but I won't hold my breath.
re The forthcoming Act - Is there anything stopping Johnson resigning in order not to sign the letter. If he is PM and doesn't sign it obviously it'll be challenged (succesfully) through the courts. I think if he can't get an election he'll genuinely stick Corbyn into bat with one being called shortly thereafter.
Somewhat undermines the "don't put Corbyn into Downing Street" election message when Boris has put him there
Johnson wouldn't literally put Corbyn there, he'd simply resign. I expect "The Queen" (I think this is how it works) would 'send for Corbyn') and obviously Johnson and at least 290 other Tories would vote not to have Corbyn in place.
Perhaps noone signs the letter because there... isn't a PM...
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
Indeed. It should be very easy to make the date legally binding if that's what's really concerning Labour/Remainers...
But even if they do that I have a feeling Lab/Remain will throw up other excuses not to face the electorate.
Well since Johnson seems to have given his opponents a great opportunity to make him look extremely foolish you can hardly blame them for taking it.
I don't see why he looks foolish. He has a paper majority of 1 but he has about 20 MPs he cannot count on. So he loses control and we effectively have no government. He wants an election to resolve that. Given the lack of alternatives we all do. Surely.
both sides want to dump the issue on the electorate but only in a format where they think they can win, Weve got lots more of this nonsense in the pipeline.
We agree for once!. You have identified one of the greatest flaws in "democracy"; the ability of the ruling class (yes that includes Farage and Corbyn) to attempt to frame the question/s to get the outcomes that suit their own narrow agendas.
What is the relevance of this? They never said this was a whim cooked up today when it was announced. That the government is thinking things through and making plans should be welcomed surely?
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
Indeed. It should be very easy to make the date legally binding if that's what's really concerning Labour/Remainers...
But even if they do that I have a feeling Lab/Remain will throw up other excuses not to face the electorate.
Well since Johnson seems to have given his opponents a great opportunity to make him look extremely foolish you can hardly blame them for taking it.
I don't see why he looks foolish. He has a paper majority of 1 but he has about 20 MPs he cannot count on. So he loses control and we effectively have no government. He wants an election to resolve that. Given the lack of alternatives we all do. Surely.
An election is not likely to resolve the impasse. And if you think the country is gagging for one may I introduce you to Brenda from Bristol?
A GE is needed to refresh the HOC and provide a new impetus to brexit
I am surprised how many remainers are not happy at the prospect as I think that while Boris may do well, I do not see a majority, and with the SNP and the Lib Dems with a smaller labour party they would be in an excellent position to achieve a second referendum
As I said yesterday a 2020 referendum with the changed demography and the youth vote has a very good chance of achieving a reasonable majority to remain
re The forthcoming Act - Is there anything stopping Johnson resigning in order not to sign the letter. If he is PM and doesn't sign it obviously it'll be challenged (succesfully) through the courts. I think if he can't get an election he'll genuinely stick Corbyn into bat with one being called shortly thereafter.
Somewhat undermines the "don't put Corbyn into Downing Street" election message when Boris has put him there
Johnson wouldn't literally put Corbyn there, he'd simply resign. I expect "The Queen" (I think this is how it works) would 'send for Corbyn') and obviously Johnson and at least 290 other Tories would vote not to have Corbyn in place.
Perhaps noone signs the letter because there... isn't a PM...
Corbyn would be PM if appointed by HMQ until a VONC and subsequently t confidence in someone else, he would remain PM through the ensuing election campaign, parliament does not approve a PM, merely Express no confidence if dissatisfied but there is no 'no pm' scenario
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
Indeed. It should be very easy to make the date legally binding if that's what's really concerning Labour/Remainers...
But even if they do that I have a feeling Lab/Remain will throw up other excuses not to face the electorate.
Well since Johnson seems to have given his opponents a great opportunity to make him look extremely foolish you can hardly blame them for taking it.
I don't see why he looks foolish. He has a paper majority of 1 but he has about 20 MPs he cannot count on. So he loses control and we effectively have no government. He wants an election to resolve that. Given the lack of alternatives we all do. Surely.
An election is not likely to resolve the impasse. And if you think the country is gagging for one may I introduce you to Brenda from Bristol?
Parliament is not likely to resolve the impasse. They have tried and failed. Repeatedly.
Stephen Kinnock gave a most weird interview yesterday about how not voting for the Withdrawal agreement was not about the Withdrawal agreement yesterday. Tony Livesey or might have been Evan Davies rightly called him out on just how seriously weird he sounded.
I do think that there are remainers who seriously regret their votes on May's deal. As they should. Kinnock seems to be one of them. But I don't know how we get back to that.
What is the relevance of this? They never said this was a whim cooked up today when it was announced. That the government is thinking things through and making plans should be welcomed surely?
I think that the relevance is that when the petition was first lodged the government position was that the courts should not be answering entirely hypothetical questions. If the matter was already under active consideration that was a tad disingenuous.
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
Most Leavers, they report, are not enthused by the prospect of No Deal. "This suggests something of an enthusiasm gap: Remain voters seem likely to feel politically engaged by a sense of defeat, Leave voters appear more likely to shrug than start dancing in the streets."
So you can imagine a General Election scenario where Labour and Lib Dem voters are motivated to turn out; where those Leavers who are motivated do turn out, but vote for the Brexit Party; and where the unmotivated Leavers stay home and fail to vote Conservative. Apart from HYUFD and Philip, that is.
As a one time Conservative activist I think the scenario you depict is quite likely. I think that Corbyn is very unpopular, but equally the scare stories about him wrecking the economy will have less impact coming from a party that has a PM that says "fuck business" and is taking one of the biggest peacetime gambles with our prosperity in recent history. Many people will stay at home. It could be won or lost on turnout/apathy perhaps. No absolutes though, I don't want to sound like a pound shop Nostradamus/HYUFD!
My reading of it is that there will be a very strong vote to get it done and that will be recruiting sergeant for the blues, the red yellow and green will be strong but fatally split
Again, I don't claim to have a crystal ball, but you also need to be aware that there is a significant tradition of moderates in the Conservative Party. Many of them were very hard working activists. They/we have been told to fuck off by Johnson. At the other end of the spectrum is the Faragists. If I dare a prediction, I would say hung parliament at best leading to exactly the same problem as we have now.
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
Indeed. It should be very easy to make the date legally binding if that's what's really concerning Labour/Remainers...
But even if they do that I have a feeling Lab/Remain will throw up other excuses not to face the electorate.
Well since Johnson seems to have given his opponents a great opportunity to make him look extremely foolish you can hardly blame them for taking it.
I don't see why he looks foolish. He has a paper majority of 1 but he has about 20 MPs he cannot count on. So he loses control and we effectively have no government. He wants an election to resolve that. Given the lack of alternatives we all do. Surely.
An election is not likely to resolve the impasse. And if you think the country is gagging for one may I introduce you to Brenda from Bristol?
Parliament is not likely to resolve the impasse. They have tried and failed. Repeatedly.
Stephen Kinnock gave a most weird interview yesterday about how not voting for the Withdrawal agreement was not about the Withdrawal agreement yesterday. Tony Livesey or might have been Evan Davies rightly called him out on just how seriously weird he sounded.
I do think that there are remainers who seriously regret their votes on May's deal. As they should. Kinnock seems to be one of them. But I don't know how we get back to that.
The price they pay for gaming Brexit for party advantage. Or, rather, the price we pay as they mourn for sins past
Comments
Course, the French probably wouldn't have fortified the Ardennes region in either case.
Also (assuming the FTPA act fails) can you make the argument that you are trying to get Parliament to vote twice on the same thing?
I am curious though whether Darth Cummings has wargamed getting sacked?
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1168808674946670592
OK lets have a general election then.
Er... No thanks.
Blair's speech yesterday was interesting - though as I mentioned before there was one enormous gaffe about train travelling times to Paris and Newcastle.
However there were a few things unanswered.
1) He said no deal would not be the end but just the beginning. Perhaps but what about revoke? Does he seriously believe that will settle things either even if there is a 'People's Vote'? What future inside the EU are they offering?
2) He touched on how Brexit reflected a wider cultural cleavage. This was welcome but again what is to be done about this? How can we avoid moving to the more identity-based tribal politics of Northern Ireland? Or did he think what was needed was for one side to 'win' over the other?
3) Elites versus the people. He rightly pointed out the dangers of the people versus parliament argument and how the referendum had contributed to this but he didn't seem to realise that the referendum result, in fact the mere holding of the referendum, was a symptom of political breakdown. Declining turnouts and perverse results through FPTP are not helping parliament's legitimacy. There is also the issue of corruption. A sense that politics is bought by vested interests, that MPs discreetly feather their own nests and are too close to powerful figures in the world of commerce and finance whom they are supposed to be regulating. Also a quite correct sense that this is all being facilitated by the increasingly open world we live in. Too many seem comforted by the idea that it's all about inequality, that some people feel (wrongly?) that they are losing out whilst the selected few do ostentatiously well. Actually many believe that the system itself is rotten.
Ardennes obviously the key failing but even that could have been manageable if it wasn't for the other faults
But even if they do that I have a feeling Lab/Remain will throw up other excuses not to face the electorate.
If push and shove come he'll stick Corbyn into bat rather than sign the letter of abject surrender (And I say that as a fan of May's deal) that has been stuck in front of his nose. He still has a few cards to play before that (Trying for an election under FTPA, trying for an election with a 1 line bill to get round the FTPA) but Corbyn becoming PM without an election is a real possibility.
I can't see the likes of Grieve, Greening and even the Lib Dems allowing him to stay on very long at all so we'll get an election after CORBYN has signed the extension.
https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/09/02/the-alliance-party-surge-could-spell-trouble-for-the-dup-at-westminster/
By which I mean twist normality into something 'exceptional'
Of course it's not only how bad No Deal is for each side, it is what are the costs of backing down? For the EU the costs might be very high: for all the countries that still want to be in the EU, they and the EU are much better off if it doesn't back down in such a way in any negotiation with third parties. Being able to stick to an agreed plan and maintain unity is pretty valuable, probably essential. It's not jut about maintaining the integrity of the single market (although that too is important).
Whereas on the UK side, there clearly is no unity, and no sign of any plan, so backing down on the 31st Oct Do or Die pledge, doesn't have any cost at all, except to Johnson's career (which is another plus for the rest of us...)
Most Leavers, they report, are not enthused by the prospect of No Deal. "This suggests something of an enthusiasm gap: Remain voters seem likely to feel politically engaged by a sense of defeat, Leave voters appear more likely to shrug than start dancing in the streets."
So you can imagine a General Election scenario where Labour and Lib Dem voters are motivated to turn out; where those Leavers who are motivated do turn out, but vote for the Brexit Party; and where the unmotivated Leavers stay home and fail to vote Conservative. Apart from HYUFD and Philip, that is.
"Indeed, around one in five of those who voted Leave say they would be angry, betrayed or disappointed were the UK to leave the EU without a deal."
It would be, in other words, massively irresponsible to hold an election without first securing an extension. That is why Boris's 'do-or-die' pledge is so spectacularly stupid; there is literally no way in which it can be met without utter disaster, even on its own terms. The only upside will be that Boris gets all the blame whichever way it fails.
Meanwhile Nigel Farage will be rubbing his hands in glee. The Quisling Boris narrative has been nicely set up... by Boris.
He has taken a risk with how he has played this but its clearly an existential one - for him and the Tory party.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-49553523
Add PM
I think if he can't get an election he'll genuinely stick Corbyn into bat with one being called shortly thereafter.
https://twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow/status/1168822956958633984
It would be tragic if a leak was his undoing
https://mobile.twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow
And they wonder why nobody trusts them...
If Boris gets a deal then maybe Remainers shouldn't make the same mistake for a forth time, but I won't hold my breath.
Perhaps noone signs the letter because there... isn't a PM...
Having sold his principles for a gig, then handed his nuts to Cummings to keep it, he might not even get his day in the Sun tomorrow...
I am surprised how many remainers are not happy at the prospect as I think that while Boris may do well, I do not see a majority, and with the SNP and the Lib Dems with a smaller labour party they would be in an excellent position to achieve a second referendum
As I said yesterday a 2020 referendum with the changed demography and the youth vote has a very good chance of achieving a reasonable majority to remain