Why are so many Irish nationalists voting for a party that won't take its seats? Particularly given the DUP role since 2016?
SF has never taken its seats in the UK as it sees it as a foreign jurisdiction. The Irish government have tried to get them to do so to ward off Brexit, but they still wont. It;s a long standing policy but probably getting less popular with the elctorate especially as the local Parlt isnt sitting.
On a related note, how has the UUP failed to make gains out of a situation where must be a load of unionists who voted Remain, and unionists who want Stormont back.
two reasons
1, the UUP has aped too many of the DUPs decisions instead of differentiating. When the DUP start tribal tub thunping they dont fight back hard enough.
2, Most moderate unionsit voters simply dont care much about politics unless its a major issiue. electoral turnout has been on a decline for several years.
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
Indeed. It should be very easy to make the date legally binding if that's what's really concerning Labour/Remainers...
But even if they do that I have a feeling Lab/Remain will throw up other excuses not to face the electorate.
Well since Johnson seems to have given his opponents a great opportunity to make him look extremely foolish you can hardly blame them for taking it.
I don't see why he looks foolish. He has a paper majority of 1 but he has about 20 MPs he cannot count on. So he loses control and we effectively have no government. He wants an election to resolve that. Given the lack of alternatives we all do. Surely.
An election is not likely to resolve the impasse. And if you think the country is gagging for one may I introduce you to Brenda from Bristol?
Parliament is not likely to resolve the impasse. They have tried and failed. Repeatedly.
Stephen Kinnock gave a most weird interview yesterday about how not voting for the Withdrawal agreement was not about the Withdrawal agreement yesterday. Tony Livesey or might have been Evan Davies rightly called him out on just how seriously weird he sounded.
I do think that there are remainers who seriously regret their votes on May's deal. As they should. Kinnock seems to be one of them. But I don't know how we get back to that.
I do actually wonder if TM had set an ultimatum of "back my deal or we revoke" would have maximised the chances of getting a Brexit deal approved and through the HoC (i.e. more chance than the current strategy).
Why are so many Irish nationalists voting for a party that won't take its seats? Particularly given the DUP role since 2016?
SF has never taken its seats in the UK as it sees it as a foreign jurisdiction. The Irish government have tried to get them to do so to ward off Brexit, but they still wont. It;s a long standing policy but probably getting less popular with the elctorate especially as the local Parlt isnt sitting.
People vote for them knowing that plus it also serves as a useful reminder to anyone who thinks that Irish Nationalism is now only a historical oddity.
That may be so but it is giving NI a wholly unrepresentative cohort in the commons - they're even in bed with the government.
Amidst all the 'Brexit Changes Everything' conversation it's almost been forgotten that we have a minority government and they don't tend to last that long. Back in 2010 people didn't expect the Conservative/Lib Dem partnership to last and that was a formal coalition.
"No deal cannot BOTH be perfectly manageable (for U.K. audiences) and yet so terrible that the threat of it will force the EU to cave in."
Of course, it's far more likely that it will be terrible for the UK but manageable for the rest of the EU.
No it isn't. If the two are closely interrelated as the initial point suggests, it must be conceded that the second scenario is as unlikely as the first. As I have said before, the effects of No deal on ROEU won't fall equally. Ireland appears to be in the worst state - I think they're badly under prepared at this point.
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
Most Leavers, they report, are not enthused by the prospect of No Deal. "This suggests something of an enthusiasm gap: Remain voters seem likely to feel politically engaged by a sense of defeat, Leave voters appear more likely to shrug than start dancing in the streets."
So you can imagine a General Election scenario where Labour and Lib Dem voters are motivated to turn out; where those Leavers who are motivated do turn out, but vote for the Brexit Party; and where the unmotivated Leavers stay home and fail to vote Conservative. Apart from HYUFD and Philip, that is.
As a one time Conservative activist I think the scenario you depict is quite likely. I think that Corbyn is very unpopular, but equally the scare stories about him wrecking the economy will have less impact coming from a party that has a PM that says "fuck business" and is taking one of the biggest peacetime gambles with our prosperity in recent history. Many people will stay at home. It could be won or lost on turnout/apathy perhaps. No absolutes though, I don't want to sound like a pound shop Nostradamus/HYUFD!
My reading of it is that there will be a very strong vote to get it done and that will be recruiting sergeant for the blues, the red yellow and green will be strong but fatally split
Again, I don't claim to have a crystal ball, but you also need to be aware that there is a significant tradition of moderates in the Conservative Party. Many of them were very hard working activists. They/we have been told to fuck off by Johnson. At the other end of the spectrum is the Faragists. If I dare a prediction, I would say hung parliament at best leading to exactly the same problem as we have now.
He will come up with a very one nation manifesto to woo the moderates on the basis of 'Brexit is happening, get with my 5 year plan for the uk'
There are also some interesting if unprovable soundbites on twitter etc over the northern working class views of Boris and Corbyn over brexit
Why are so many Irish nationalists voting for a party that won't take its seats? Particularly given the DUP role since 2016?
SF has never taken its seats in the UK as it sees it as a foreign jurisdiction. The Irish government have tried to get them to do so to ward off Brexit, but they still wont. It;s a long standing policy but probably getting less popular with the elctorate especially as the local Parlt isnt sitting.
People vote for them knowing that plus it also serves as a useful reminder to anyone who thinks that Irish Nationalism is now only a historical oddity.
That may be so but it is giving NI a wholly unrepresentative cohort in the commons - they're even in bed with the government.
Amidst all the 'Brexit Changes Everything' conversation it's almost been forgotten that we have a minority government and they don't tend to last that long. Back in 2010 people didn't expect the Conservative/Lib Dem partnership to last and that was a formal coalition.
What do you expect when only the Conservatives field candidates ?
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
Indeed. It should be very easy to make the date legally binding if that's what's really concerning Labour/Remainers...
But even if they do that I have a feeling Lab/Remain will throw up other excuses not to face the electorate.
Well since Johnson seems to have given his opponents a great opportunity to make him look extremely foolish you can hardly blame them for taking it.
I don't see why he looks foolish. He has a paper majority of 1 but he has about 20 MPs he cannot count on. So he loses control and we effectively have no government. He wants an election to resolve that. Given the lack of alternatives we all do. Surely.
An election is not likely to resolve the impasse. And if you think the country is gagging for one may I introduce you to Brenda from Bristol?
Parliament is not likely to resolve the impasse. They have tried and failed. Repeatedly.
Stephen Kinnock gave a most weird interview yesterday about how not voting for the Withdrawal agreement was not about the Withdrawal agreement yesterday. Tony Livesey or might have been Evan Davies rightly called him out on just how seriously weird he sounded.
I do think that there are remainers who seriously regret their votes on May's deal. As they should. Kinnock seems to be one of them. But I don't know how we get back to that.
The price they pay for gaming Brexit for party advantage. Or, rather, the price we pay as they mourn for sins past
What party advantage is that with Labour at least 7 points behind the Tories in the polls ?
So, a period of silence and reflection from the 'Jez wants to engineer a Tory No Deal' brigade?
People, rather, said that Jez is sitting pretty and would be as happy with a Tory no deal as he would be with any other Tory f**k up. The more chaos the better under the current administration. Which is fair enough for a LOTO.
Oh and there is of course the lifelong anti-EU thing as well.
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
Indeed. It should be very easy to make the date legally binding if that's what's really concerning Labour/Remainers...
But even if they do that I have a feeling Lab/Remain will throw up other excuses not to face the electorate.
Well since Johnson seems to have given his opponents a great opportunity to make him look extremely foolish you can hardly blame them for taking it.
I don't see why he looks foolish. He has a paper majority of 1 but he has about 20 MPs he cannot count on. So he loses control and we effectively have no government. He wants an election to resolve that. Given the lack of alternatives we all do. Surely.
An election is not likely to resolve the impasse. And if you think the country is gagging for one may I introduce you to Brenda from Bristol?
Parliament is not likely to resolve the impasse. They have tried and failed. Repeatedly.
Stephen Kinnock gave a most weird interview yesterday about how not voting for the Withdrawal agreement was not about the Withdrawal agreement yesterday. Tony Livesey or might have been Evan Davies rightly called him out on just how seriously weird he sounded.
I do think that there are remainers who seriously regret their votes on May's deal. As they should. Kinnock seems to be one of them. But I don't know how we get back to that.
The price they pay for gaming Brexit for party advantage. Or, rather, the price we pay as they mourn for sins past
What party advantage is that with Labour at least 7 points behind the Tories in the polls ?
re The forthcoming Act - Is there anything stopping Johnson resigning in order not to sign the letter. If he is PM and doesn't sign it obviously it'll be challenged (succesfully) through the courts. I think if he can't get an election he'll genuinely stick Corbyn into bat with one being called shortly thereafter.
Somewhat undermines the "don't put Corbyn into Downing Street" election message when Boris has put him there
Johnson wouldn't literally put Corbyn there, he'd simply resign. I expect "The Queen" (I think this is how it works) would 'send for Corbyn') and obviously Johnson and at least 290 other Tories would vote not to have Corbyn in place.
Perhaps noone signs the letter because there... isn't a PM...
Corbyn would be PM if appointed by HMQ until a VONC and subsequently t confidence in someone else, he would remain PM through the ensuing election campaign, parliament does not approve a PM, merely Express no confidence if dissatisfied but there is no 'no pm' scenario
If Corbyn was called by the Queen, could the opposition (I assume Cons at this point) immediately on day 1 hour 1 of his time as leader in HOC call a VONC (which has to be done on the next day in Parliament)?
"No deal cannot BOTH be perfectly manageable (for U.K. audiences) and yet so terrible that the threat of it will force the EU to cave in."
Of course, it's far more likely that it will be terrible for the UK but manageable for the rest of the EU.
No it isn't. If the two are closely interrelated as the initial point suggests, it must be conceded that the second scenario is as unlikely as the first. As I have said before, the effects of No deal on ROEU won't fall equally. Ireland appears to be in the worst state - I think they're badly under prepared at this point.
Ireland is the exception. The economic cost of no deal to the EU as a whole isn't that great, it's a huge economy.
re The forthcoming Act - Is there anything stopping Johnson resigning in order not to sign the letter. If he is PM and doesn't sign it obviously it'll be challenged (succesfully) through the courts. I think if he can't get an election he'll genuinely stick Corbyn into bat with one being called shortly thereafter.
Somewhat undermines the "don't put Corbyn into Downing Street" election message when Boris has put him there
Johnson wouldn't literally put Corbyn there, he'd simply resign. I expect "The Queen" (I think this is how it works) would 'send for Corbyn') and obviously Johnson and at least 290 other Tories would vote not to have Corbyn in place.
Perhaps noone signs the letter because there... isn't a PM...
Corbyn would be PM if appointed by HMQ until a VONC and subsequently t confidence in someone else, he would remain PM through the ensuing election campaign, parliament does not approve a PM, merely Express no confidence if dissatisfied but there is no 'no pm' scenario
If Corbyn was called by the Queen, could the opposition (I assume Cons at this point) immediately on day 1 hour 1 of his time as leader in HOC call a VONC (which has to be done on the next day in Parliament)?
Yes, but Corbyn remains PM until someone else gets confidence or he remains PM till the ensuing GE
It seems every comment I make triggers a new thread these days - it's strange because there's nothing much going on as far as I can see !!
Corbyn has to do two spectacularly clever but politically counter-intuitive things. One, he has to set aside his own desire to fight an election and leave Johnson swinging in the breeze and second, he may have to fight his own desire to be PM and allow a more politically acceptable S.O Else to lead an interim Government which can command the majority in the Commons which he cannot and which will stop the No Deal.
I'm still puzzled as to what happens once No Deal is stopped - do we proceed to a GE and if so what will have changed? Boris will presumably campaign on us leaving at the next extension date and the LDs presumably around Revoke/Remain but would the interim Government carry out any negotiation with the EU?
Mr Woolie, It won't cut it with any of my moderate Conservative friends. We are all planning to either abstain, spoil ballot or vote LD.. Perhaps we are unrepresentative. Who knows? The one thing that is certain is that anyone who trusts a word Johnson or Cummings says is very gullible indeed IMO!
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
That's a different question. If Parliament had the balls to revoke before 31st October that would be fair enough. But no more procrastination.
From the polling. That 52 per cent that keeps being quoted as wanting Brexit and supporting the strategy is clearly more like 40 per cent.....
"Indeed, around one in five of those who voted Leave say they would be angry, betrayed or disappointed were the UK to leave the EU without a deal."
Still a different question. Do people want a further delay? What little polling I have seen says no.
They want the pain to end, of course they do, but that's not to say they think a bullet through the head would be an acceptable way of bringing it about. (Well, most of them don't.)
Mr Woolie, It won't cut it with any of my moderate Conservative friends. We are all planning to either abstain, spoil ballot or vote LD.. Perhaps we are unrepresentative. Who knows? The one thing that is certain is that anyone who trusts a word Johnson or Cummings says is very gullible indeed IMO!
Exactly the same with my conservative friends as well.
Mr Woolie, It won't cut it with any of my moderate Conservative friends. We are all planning to either abstain, spoil ballot or vote LD.. Perhaps we are unrepresentative. Who knows? The one thing that is certain is that anyone who trusts a word Johnson or Cummings says is very gullible indeed IMO!
Certainly the traditional voting blocks are breaking down, I just think the het it done brigade will be more United vote wise than the stop it brigade.
re The forthcoming Act - Is there anything stopping Johnson resigning in order not to sign the letter. If he is PM and doesn't sign it obviously it'll be challenged (succesfully) through the courts. I think if he can't get an election he'll genuinely stick Corbyn into bat with one being called shortly thereafter.
Somewhat undermines the "don't put Corbyn into Downing Street" election message when Boris has put him there
Johnson wouldn't literally put Corbyn there, he'd simply resign. I expect "The Queen" (I think this is how it works) would 'send for Corbyn') and obviously Johnson and at least 290 other Tories would vote not to have Corbyn in place.
Perhaps noone signs the letter because there... isn't a PM...
Corbyn would be PM if appointed by HMQ until a VONC and subsequently t confidence in someone else, he would remain PM through the ensuing election campaign, parliament does not approve a PM, merely Express no confidence if dissatisfied but there is no 'no pm' scenario
If Corbyn was called by the Queen, could the opposition (I assume Cons at this point) immediately on day 1 hour 1 of his time as leader in HOC call a VONC (which has to be done on the next day in Parliament)?
I think so. Corbyn remains in place, unless he resigns himself! (Though that would look very weird) either till 2022 unable to pass a Queens speech, a budget or any other bit of legislation save the sort of low grade common ground stuff that gets through anyway or we have an election.
Sticking Corbyn in isn't without risk but its better for the Tories politically than signing another extension.
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
Indeed. It should be very easy to make the date legally binding if that's what's really concerning Labour/Remainers...
But even if they do that I have a feeling Lab/Remain will throw up other excuses not to face the electorate.
Well since Johnson seems to have given his opponents a great opportunity to make him look extremely foolish you can hardly blame them for taking it.
I don't see why he looks foolish. He has a paper majority of 1 but he has about 20 MPs he cannot count on. So he loses control and we effectively have no government. He wants an election to resolve that. Given the lack of alternatives we all do. Surely.
An election is not likely to resolve the impasse. And if you think the country is gagging for one may I introduce you to Brenda from Bristol?
Parliament is not likely to resolve the impasse. They have tried and failed. Repeatedly.
Stephen Kinnock gave a most weird interview yesterday about how not voting for the Withdrawal agreement was not about the Withdrawal agreement yesterday. Tony Livesey or might have been Evan Davies rightly called him out on just how seriously weird he sounded.
I do think that there are remainers who seriously regret their votes on May's deal. As they should. Kinnock seems to be one of them. But I don't know how we get back to that.
I do actually wonder if TM had set an ultimatum of "back my deal or we revoke" would have maximised the chances of getting a Brexit deal approved and through the HoC (i.e. more chance than the current strategy).
The Commons would never have accepted any Brexit deal and will not do so in the future. Any deal will be seen as worse than the status quo by many remainers and short of the nirvana of no deal by many leavers. There have never been enough MPs willing to compromise, and that number is shrinking because all party leaderships (even Labour with its pledge of a second referendum) are now firmly entrenched in positions which their opponents see as extreme.
People, rather, said that Jez is sitting pretty and would be as happy with a Tory no deal as he would be with any other Tory f**k up. The more chaos the better under the current administration. Which is fair enough for a LOTO.
Oh and there is of course the lifelong anti-EU thing as well.
Ah no I didn't mean those people. Indeed they include me.
I'm talking about the conspiracy theory stuff that he has a secret masterplan to ensure that Tory No Deal.
Anyway (top) hats off to you for talking to me about Corbyn without bringing antisemitism into it. That is a first and is much appreciated.
re The forthcoming Act - Is there anything stopping Johnson resigning in order not to sign the letter. If he is PM and doesn't sign it obviously it'll be challenged (succesfully) through the courts. I think if he can't get an election he'll genuinely stick Corbyn into bat with one being called shortly thereafter.
Somewhat undermines the "don't put Corbyn into Downing Street" election message when Boris has put him there
Johnson wouldn't literally put Corbyn there, he'd simply resign. I expect "The Queen" (I think this is how it works) would 'send for Corbyn') and obviously Johnson and at least 290 other Tories would vote not to have Corbyn in place.
Perhaps noone signs the letter because there... isn't a PM...
Corbyn would be PM if appointed by HMQ until a VONC and subsequently t confidence in someone else, he would remain PM through the ensuing election campaign, parliament does not approve a PM, merely Express no confidence if dissatisfied but there is no 'no pm' scenario
If Corbyn was called by the Queen, could the opposition (I assume Cons at this point) immediately on day 1 hour 1 of his time as leader in HOC call a VONC (which has to be done on the next day in Parliament)?
Yes but would it want to? Some think CCHQ would rather Labour called the election so Boris could fight as an insurgent: for the people against the Establishment. Like Trump.
Well hung. I note that doesn’t include NI. A rainbow coalition could probably just squeak out a tiny majority on those figures, but the whole thing would be liable to collapse pretty quickly.
Well hung. I note that doesn’t include NI. A rainbow coalition could probably just squeak out a tiny majority on those figures, but the whole thing would be liable to collapse pretty quickly.
It's almost identical to now with a few seats redistributed around the opposition, presumably con losing most Scot seats but picking up a few labour ones and losing a few to libs
2 WWII analogies and it's only 10:30? You're spoiling us ambassador.
England is obsessed with WWII and past glories. I reckon it is all those repeats of Dad's Army that does it.
So those WWII past glories had nothing to do with Scotland?
I wonder what past glories Scotland does elebrate? Anything since the fourteenth century?
He's right, England is obsessed. We can be grateful for the sacrifices made by brave women and men, fighting fascists at home and abroad. We can acknowledge our own country's mistakes in creating the conditions that lead to the horror of the war. We can be determined to be a better people. We can do all of those things without being obsessed or even celebrating. Sadly, a lot of popular feeling about WW2 in England seems to be less "sober lesson from history" and more "two world wars and one world cup".
2 WWII analogies and it's only 10:30? You're spoiling us ambassador.
England is obsessed with WWII and past glories. I reckon it is all those repeats of Dad's Army that does it.
So those WWII past glories had nothing to do with Scotland?
I wonder what past glories Scotland does elebrate? Anything since the fourteenth century?
Not 'elebrate' exactly, but we're sure as hell relieved that our 'divisive' referendum hasn't reduced us to a quivering bucket of backward looking snotters with the likes of Rees-Mogg & Cummings floating to the top.
They want the pain to end, of course they do, but that's not to say they think a bullet through the head would be an acceptable way of bringing it about. (Well, most of them don't.)
It pleases me that even in these circumstances Letwin can’t help but be polite and courteous and ensure Gvt has some time either side in case things must be done.
Some of the finest and fearsome regiments of the British army are Scottish. Just ask the Irish!!
At one point in the Battle of Basra the Royal Scots Dragoons were simultaneously firing on the Iraqi Army, Iranian Border Guards, Fedayeen irregulars and us (42 Commando) even though we were nominally on their side.
They also set fire to the main library which caused the Basrapudlians to be quite arsey for some time.
The remainder is DUP 9, Sinn Fein 7, Ind 1, Alliance 1
Which leaves the blocks as
Con + DUP 319 (Exclude Laing) Lab + SNP + LD + PC + Green + Alliance 319 (Exclude Hoyle, Winterton) Speaker + Deputies 4 Hermon 1 Sinn Fein (Abstain) 7
Perfectly balanced
That would be a fine mess!
I don't think a GE can be predicted with anything like that accuracy.
The MoE on calculating the seats is huge and the polls will move in unpredictable ways during the campaign.
Oh, certainly. I think the main point is simply that another hung parliament is quite likely even in a pre-October 31st scenario. My hunch would be that the LibDems might do better than those projections and the Tories worse, but it could equally be that Boris would get a (small) majority.
If that projection Richard_Nabavi flagged up happened, how would Jo Swinson act, given that she has stated that she cannot work with Jeremy Corbyn? Is she guilty of lying about her intentions, or would she undergo a Damascene conversion in the pursuit of power. Perhaps she might claim that she and The LDs are acting in the greater good.
If that projection Richard_Nabavi flagged up happened, how would Jo Swinson act, given that she has stated that she cannot work with Jeremy Corbyn? Is she guilty of lying about her intentions, or would she undergo a Damascene conversion in the pursuit of power. Perhaps she might claim that she and The LDs are acting in the greater good.
"No deal cannot BOTH be perfectly manageable (for U.K. audiences) and yet so terrible that the threat of it will force the EU to cave in."
Of course, it's far more likely that it will be terrible for the UK but manageable for the rest of the EU.
Not true.
No deal can be a problem but one we are prepared to live with to gain the benefits of freedom and the ability to set our own laws, customs and have our own courts interpret them.
On the other hand the EU and Ireland especially gain no benefits from no deal. They suffer the consequences but only we reap the rewards.
The fact that you still fail to recognise there are any rewards to Brexit is why you are struggling with this misapprehension.
Do you really believe that there will be no rewards for the EU from a No Deal Brexit? Seriously? All those companies relocating HQ’s to Amsterdam or banks moving assets to Ireland or companies moving to Ireland (like mine, for instance) or companies moving jobs to the EU in order to protect themselves from the consequences of a No Deal exit say hello.
There may well be some rewards from Brexit. The questions are whether:-
1. They will outweigh the costs. 2. Those rewards will be gained by those who primarily voted for Brexit. 3. Both the rewards and costs will be fairly shared. 4. Whether the manner of Brexiting i.e. a No Deal exit vs an exit with a deal will change the rewards/costs ratio.
So far most of the Brexiteers seem to have given very little thought to the “what happens next” argument.
If that projection Richard_Nabavi flagged up happened, how would Jo Swinson act, given that she has stated that she cannot work with Jeremy Corbyn? Is she guilty of lying about her intentions, or would she undergo a Damascene conversion in the pursuit of power. Perhaps she might claim that she and The LDs are acting in the greater good.
She'd much rather prop up Boris than Corbyn.
LibDems can come to an unofficial understanding short of confidence and supply, if the parliamentary arithmetic demands it. After last time, they will not want to be seen as too close to either main party. Equally, they will want to maximise their influence.
Stringer, skinner, hoey, Austin, field, flint, that former Lib Dem..... o'mara not voting. It's going to be close, I expect about 15 Tory rebels, a handful will back out to maintain their job
The key to the election remains the date. The slightly bizarre idea that Boris would use his discretion to fix a date after 31st October is the fig leaf that remainers want to hide behind. Hammond did it this morning. So introduce the bill put up on this site yesterday making an election on 10th or 14th October a matter of statute. No discretion. Then have an election to find out if the people of this country really want another extension of this agony. Because I don't think that they do.
Indeed. It should be very easy to make the date legally binding if that's what's really concerning Labour/Remainers...
But even if they do that I have a feeling Lab/Remain will throw up other excuses not to face the electorate.
Well since Johnson seems to have given his opponents a great opportunity to make him look extremely foolish you can hardly blame them for taking it.
I don't see why he looks foolish. He has a paper majority of 1 but he has about 20 MPs he cannot count on. So he loses control and we effectively have no government. He wants an election to resolve that. Given the lack of alternatives we all do. Surely.
An election is not likely to resolve the impasse. And if you think the country is gagging for one may I introduce you to Brenda from Bristol?
Parliament is not likely to resolve the impasse. They have tried and failed. Repeatedly.
Stephen Kinnock gave a most weird interview yesterday about how not voting for the Withdrawal agreement was not about the Withdrawal agreement yesterday. Tony Livesey or might have been Evan Davies rightly called him out on just how seriously weird he sounded.
I do think that there are remainers who seriously regret their votes on May's deal. As they should. Kinnock seems to be one of them. But I don't know how we get back to that.
We don't, May is gone as is her deal and one of her opponents is now in her place.
If Boris gets a deal then maybe Remainers shouldn't make the same mistake for a forth time, but I won't hold my breath.
The deal was primarily scuppered by the ferocious reaction of the ERG and its acolytes. No type of deal would ever satisfy them as we are witnessing again now. They always wanted a No Deal Brexit but didn't have the guts to campaign for it openly. They hid behind the "easy deal, no problems" line until the referendum was in the bag then they set out achieving their own agenda.
How do those who, rightly, complain that prorogation is a suspension of democracy then turn round and oppose an election?
For the obvious reason that unless an extension has already been agreed, there would not be enough time for any new government to implement whatever it had a mandate to do (and that includes a no-deal exit).
If that projection Richard_Nabavi flagged up happened, how would Jo Swinson act, given that she has stated that she cannot work with Jeremy Corbyn? Is she guilty of lying about her intentions, or would she undergo a Damascene conversion in the pursuit of power. Perhaps she might claim that she and The LDs are acting in the greater good.
She'd much rather prop up Boris than Corbyn.
LibDems can come to an unofficial understanding short of confidence and supply, if the parliamentary arithmetic demands it. After last time, they will not want to be seen as too close to either main party. Equally, they will want to maximise their influence.
Indeed. They're trying to assemble a loose broader Liberal coalition based on numerous "OMG these are normal people I can work with not swivel-eyed loons like those who have taken over my party" epiphanies.
Stringer, skinner, hoey, Austin, field, flint, that former Lib Dem..... o'mara not voting. It's going to be close, I expect about 15 Tory rebels, a handful will back out to maintain their job
The deal was primarily scuppered by the ferocious reaction of the ERG and its acolytes. No type of deal would ever satisfy them as we are witnessing again now. They always wanted a No Deal Brexit but didn't have the guts to campaign for it openly. They hid behind the "easy deal, no problems" line until the referendum was in the bag then they set out achieving their own agenda.
Last I checked there aren't 400+ ERG MPs.
That Remainers chose to march through the lobbies with the ERG to keep no deal on the table is on them.
When the ERG are saying the deal is awful, when Ken Clarke is saying its good, maybe Remainers should have thought twice before siding with the ERG instead of Ken Clarke.
Comments
1, the UUP has aped too many of the DUPs decisions instead of differentiating. When the DUP start tribal tub thunping they dont fight back hard enough.
2, Most moderate unionsit voters simply dont care much about politics unless its a major issiue. electoral turnout has been on a decline for several years.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49560557
Remember this is normally reasonably remainery.
That's the relevance
Amidst all the 'Brexit Changes Everything' conversation it's almost been forgotten that we have a minority government and they don't tend to last that long. Back in 2010 people didn't expect the Conservative/Lib Dem partnership to last and that was a formal coalition.
There are also some interesting if unprovable soundbites on twitter etc over the northern working class views of Boris and Corbyn over brexit
Oh and there is of course the lifelong anti-EU thing as well.
It seems every comment I make triggers a new thread these days - it's strange because there's nothing much going on as far as I can see !!
Corbyn has to do two spectacularly clever but politically counter-intuitive things. One, he has to set aside his own desire to fight an election and leave Johnson swinging in the breeze and second, he may have to fight his own desire to be PM and allow a more politically acceptable S.O Else to lead an interim Government which can command the majority in the Commons which he cannot and which will stop the No Deal.
I'm still puzzled as to what happens once No Deal is stopped - do we proceed to a GE and if so what will have changed? Boris will presumably campaign on us leaving at the next extension date and the LDs presumably around Revoke/Remain but would the interim Government carry out any negotiation with the EU?
Sticking Corbyn in isn't without risk but its better for the Tories politically than signing another extension.
"The Tories 'Would Lose Six Seats' If PM Calls Snap Election, New Poll Analysis Suggests"
Projection is:
Con 311 (-6)
Lab 242 (-20)
LD 21 (+9)
SNP 52 (+17)
PC 4
Green 1
Others 1
BXP 0
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tories-would-lose-6-seats-in-a-snap-election-new-focal-data-poll-analysis-shows_uk_5d6d8e61e4b0cdfe05745b9f
We dont want a chance to be elected to enact our legislation!
There are HUGE risks in opposing an election
I wonder what past glories Scotland does elebrate? Anything since the fourteenth century?
If its Bercow is there anything to prevent him saying its not required when it should be? Or vice-versa if its the PM?
Is there anything to prevent the PM from saying it is required [and not granting it]?
Cummings whining about "anonymous and unsubstantiated claims" reported by journalists...
Heart of stone
I'm talking about the conspiracy theory stuff that he has a secret masterplan to ensure that Tory No Deal.
Anyway (top) hats off to you for talking to me about Corbyn without bringing antisemitism into it. That is a first and is much appreciated.
And don't now spoil it! ☺
Rebel Alliance - Corbyn does somewhat resemble Obi Wan Kenobe.
Which leaves the blocks as
Con + DUP 319 (Exclude Laing)
Lab + SNP + LD + PC + Green + Alliance 319 (Exclude Hoyle, Winterton)
Speaker + Deputies 4
Hermon 1
Sinn Fein (Abstain) 7
Perfectly balanced
We can be grateful for the sacrifices made by brave women and men, fighting fascists at home and abroad. We can acknowledge our own country's mistakes in creating the conditions that lead to the horror of the war. We can be determined to be a better people.
We can do all of those things without being obsessed or even celebrating. Sadly, a lot of popular feeling about WW2 in England seems to be less "sober lesson from history" and more "two world wars and one world cup".
The MoE on calculating the seats is huge and the polls will move in unpredictable ways during the campaign.
https://twitter.com/severincarrell/status/1168844323657605121
And a possibility of them not opposing pro-Remain Tories: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/63cbc7ba-cdd1-11e9-bac7-3a108794927b
https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1168845291098976256
Yes, I'm weird.
They also set fire to the main library which caused the Basrapudlians to be quite arsey for some time.
Johnson starts off with Hoey from the other side, and err that is... it.
There may well be some rewards from Brexit. The questions are whether:-
1. They will outweigh the costs.
2. Those rewards will be gained by those who primarily voted for Brexit.
3. Both the rewards and costs will be fairly shared.
4. Whether the manner of Brexiting i.e. a No Deal exit vs an exit with a deal will change the rewards/costs ratio.
So far most of the Brexiteers seem to have given very little thought to the “what happens next” argument.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/embarrassed-pollster-ripped-up-poll-that-showed-labor-losing-election-20190604-p51u9v.html
TLDR; PUBLISH
They oppose a particular date of an election.
That Remainers chose to march through the lobbies with the ERG to keep no deal on the table is on them.
When the ERG are saying the deal is awful, when Ken Clarke is saying its good, maybe Remainers should have thought twice before siding with the ERG instead of Ken Clarke.