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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson channels both Theresa May and Gordon Brown

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    Anyone still claiming there’s a master strategy? It all looks like Frank Spencer rollerskating tonight.


    There’s clearly a strategy. Get MPs so desperate they eventually agree to a new deal, offered by a spooked EU. Whether it works is moot.

    What you’re seeing is tactics. Which vary from day to day, like skirmishes in a larger war.

    From here, any conceivable deal is a defeat for Johnson. No Deal is his only option.

    Agreed. He and Cummings would have gamed what would be the easiest to spin. Boris as the No Dealer with a heavy heart fits the bill. 'I wanted a deal, I really did, but because the people have spoken/Theresa was crap/the EU are nasty/parliament is uncooperative then No Deal it has to be. Let's make it work!'
    If Boris wins a majority before 31st October ironically he can then finally pass the Withdrawal Agreement with some promise about a technical solution for the Irish border from the EU
    What is your assumption about BXP in any election before 31 October? Do you think an agreement with the Tories will be reached, which Boris then would renege on if he passes a deal, or do you think BXP stand in some places but not enough to harm the Tories, or they stand all over the place but still not well enough to stop BoJo?
    There will be no pact with the Brexit Party as that requires abandoning the Withdrawal Agreement completely, Boris still wants to pass the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop and will campaign on that basis with No Deal a last resort to ensure Brexit on October 31st
    Yes, but what do you think BXP will do in response to that, and what level of effect (or not) do you think their actions will have?
    Little, they are polling no better than UKIP 2015 when the Tories won a majority now, after May extended they were polling up to 25%
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124

    Whatever happens it'll be the end of the monarchy.

    Is Boris Johnson prepared to put the Queen through that?
    Refusing Royal Consent didn't finish Queen Anne in 1708 or William III before that (or George III on the US declaration of independence or HMQEII herself on that New South Wales Privy Council thing in 1979)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152

    kle4 said:

    I don’t believe that there has been a single case ever of a Prime Minister advising a monarch not to give royal assent to a bill that both Houses of Parliament have passed. So what is being hinted at is literally without precedent.
    So Boris might well do it and defend it with a whinge that Bercow started this?
    What is the “it” that he has the power to do? He is not the Queen and there is no precedent saying that the Prime Minister can counsel the Queen not to give Royal Assent.
    Thst does not mean he cannot do it and he will with 17 million voters behind him to respect the Leave vote
  • HYUFD said:

    From anti Brexit ConsEurope but even it gives the Tories more than Labour plus SNP plus Plaid plus Greens combined with LDs or DUP holding the balance of power
    The campaign and , therefore, equal time has not even started. Give a little bit of time.
    Boris can match any spending promises Corbyn cares to make, and with greater flair too. He also has the advantage of not being a clapped-out, anti-British leftist.

    So advantage Boris.
  • HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    I don’t believe that there has been a single case ever of a Prime Minister advising a monarch not to give royal assent to a bill that both Houses of Parliament have passed. So what is being hinted at is literally without precedent.
    So Boris might well do it and defend it with a whinge that Bercow started this?
    What is the “it” that he has the power to do? He is not the Queen and there is no precedent saying that the Prime Minister can counsel the Queen not to give Royal Assent.
    Thst does not mean he cannot do it and he will with 17 million voters behind him to respect the Leave vote
    The Queen has no reason to listen to him and will be setting a hugely controversial precedent if she does. Why on earth should she?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    kle4 said:

    I don’t believe that there has been a single case ever of a Prime Minister advising a monarch not to give royal assent to a bill that both Houses of Parliament have passed. So what is being hinted at is literally without precedent.
    So Boris might well do it and defend it with a whinge that Bercow started this?
    What is the “it” that he has the power to do? He is not the Queen and there is no precedent saying that the Prime Minister can counsel the Queen not to give Royal Assent.
    I wasn't saying he did have the power to advise the monarch not to give royal assent (the "it"). I was suggesting he would still try to do it even if he has no power to do it and no precedent to say that he can, and would grasp for a defence of his actions by blaming the Speaker for abandoning precedent first.

    I don't think there is anything Boris would not attempt in order to prove himself committed to Brexit no matter the cost or the rules - he knows he has to convince the Farage fans to listen to him, not Farage, in a GE.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,060
    Drutt said:


    Trente per centen.

    Ich nichten lichten


  • Scott_P said:
    I suggest these strategists have a look at the audience queuing outside the Rocky Horror Show in northern towns. Working class people have just as wide a selection of views as middle class ones.
    I think most people, what ever their background, have an inate sense of right and wrong when it comes to individual rights and beliefs. The idea that a campaign vilifying a vulnerable minority would gain traction amongst people just because they are 'Northern' or working class is offensive and wrong.
  • Scott_P said:
    Boris will probably be a gentleman and hand over to his brother Jo after two terms!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    I don’t believe that there has been a single case ever of a Prime Minister advising a monarch not to give royal assent to a bill that both Houses of Parliament have passed. So what is being hinted at is literally without precedent.
    So Boris might well do it and defend it with a whinge that Bercow started this?
    What is the “it” that he has the power to do? He is not the Queen and there is no precedent saying that the Prime Minister can counsel the Queen not to give Royal Assent.
    Thst does not mean he cannot do it and he will with 17 million voters behind him to respect the Leave vote
    The Queen has no reason to listen to him and will be setting a hugely controversial precedent if she does. Why on earth should she?
    Refuse to refuse royal assent, quite amusing.
  • Scott_P said:
    Anyone wirh the letters FBPE after their name is a fucking idiot.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Ah yes. Let’s all have YET ANOTHER Remainery laugh at poor old racist Britain. What a stupid country Britain is, imagining that Brexit talks are ‘intensifying’ in Brussels. Jesus Christ Britain is crap and shit, how could they think that, the deluded British chavs. Isn’t Brussels clever.

    Oh wait. Here’s an Irish MEP talking to Irish media, saying Brexit talks are.... intensifying.

    “In an interview with RTÉ Radio’s Sean O’Rourke programme, McGuinness confirmed talks were intensifying in Brussels but she said they should not be mischaracterised as a renegotiation of the withdrawal agreement.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/02/brexit-new-deal-uk-eu-boris-johnson

    You people are scum. Get out of the country you hate so much
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    The brexit maniacs are behaving as I would expect tonight on ch4 news they no longer offer any benefits of leave just the mantra that the vote must be respected. I’m sorry but they are all c****
  • kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    I don’t believe that there has been a single case ever of a Prime Minister advising a monarch not to give royal assent to a bill that both Houses of Parliament have passed. So what is being hinted at is literally without precedent.
    So Boris might well do it and defend it with a whinge that Bercow started this?
    What is the “it” that he has the power to do? He is not the Queen and there is no precedent saying that the Prime Minister can counsel the Queen not to give Royal Assent.
    Thst does not mean he cannot do it and he will with 17 million voters behind him to respect the Leave vote
    The Queen has no reason to listen to him and will be setting a hugely controversial precedent if she does. Why on earth should she?
    Refuse to refuse royal assent, quite amusing.
    As far as I can see, he has no more role in the giving of royal assent than I have.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    blueblue said:

    Scott_P said:
    Boris will probably be a gentleman and hand over to his brother Jo after two terms!
    Not one of his own sprogs?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    A song I've written anyway, to be released on the day (should it ever come) that this whole project collapses under the weight of its contradictions.

    Channeling Don Mclean -

    A long long time ago I can still remember how the Brexit used to make me smile
    And I knew if it had its chance that it would make our people dance and we’d be very happy for a while
    But parliament would always dither, instead of trying to deliver
    Bad news on our doorstep, we couldn’t take one more step
    I’m not ashamed to say I cried when I read that even Boris lied
    And now it seems our hands are tied
    The day the Brexit died

    So bye bye, it was not Do or Die
    Brexit stolen from the People, what a poke in the eye
    Those good ole boys eating pasties and pies, singing all the liberal traitors must die

    I met a friend who voted Leave and asked her if she still believed, but she just shrugged and turned away
    I went on down to the Poundland store, where I’d heard the rumblings weeks before, and a man there said the bastards had to pay
    In Weatherspoons the punters screamed, they hurled abuse and no longer dreamed
    Of chains of Europe broken, those words they all were token
    And the man they trusted like a priest – thought Nigel would surely fight at least
    He’d caught the last plane for Belize
    The day that Brexit died

    And so we’re singing …

    Bye bye, it was not Do or Die
    Brexit stolen from the People, what a poke in the eye
    Those good ole boys eating pasties and pies, saying all the liberal traitors must die
    Saying ALL the liberal traitors must die!

    :-)
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124

    I don’t believe that there has been a single case ever of a Prime Minister advising a monarch not to give royal assent to a bill that both Houses of Parliament have passed. So what is being hinted at is literally without precedent.

    I don’t really understand why anyone thinks the Prime Minister even has a role in this process, never mind a veto.
    *Puts on nerdiest glasses, licks finger and puts it in the air*

    1708 Scottish Militia Bill. Passed both houses but the French were then sighted sailing to Scotland so Queen Anne decided not to trust the Scots with guns.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    I don’t believe that there has been a single case ever of a Prime Minister advising a monarch not to give royal assent to a bill that both Houses of Parliament have passed. So what is being hinted at is literally without precedent.
    So Boris might well do it and defend it with a whinge that Bercow started this?
    What is the “it” that he has the power to do? He is not the Queen and there is no precedent saying that the Prime Minister can counsel the Queen not to give Royal Assent.
    Thst does not mean he cannot do it and he will with 17 million voters behind him to respect the Leave vote
    The Queen has no reason to listen to him and will be setting a hugely controversial precedent if she does. Why on earth should she?
    Refuse to refuse royal assent, quite amusing.
    As far as I can see, he has no more role in the giving of royal assent than I have.
    Not arguing with you, I have no expertise to do so, I just think he will say he does and will try to do so. If HYUFD is defending it, you can bet Boris is thinking it.
  • Drutt said:

    I don’t believe that there has been a single case ever of a Prime Minister advising a monarch not to give royal assent to a bill that both Houses of Parliament have passed. So what is being hinted at is literally without precedent.

    I don’t really understand why anyone thinks the Prime Minister even has a role in this process, never mind a veto.
    *Puts on nerdiest glasses, licks finger and puts it in the air*

    1708 Scottish Militia Bill. Passed both houses but the French were then sighted sailing to Scotland so Queen Anne decided not to trust the Scots with guns.
    There was no Prime Minister then.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    blueblue said:

    HYUFD said:

    From anti Brexit ConsEurope but even it gives the Tories more than Labour plus SNP plus Plaid plus Greens combined with LDs or DUP holding the balance of power
    The campaign and , therefore, equal time has not even started. Give a little bit of time.
    Boris can match any spending promises Corbyn cares to make, and with greater flair too. He also has the advantage of not being a clapped-out, anti-British leftist.

    So advantage Boris.
    So being a man of no morals, a history of lying and god knows what is now rejecting the sensible Tory approach of good management is right to run the country
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    Anyone still claiming there’s a master strategy? It all looks like Frank Spencer rollerskating tonight.


    There’s clearly a strategy. Get MPs so desperate they eventually agree to a new deal, offered by a spooked EU. Whether it works is moot.

    What you’re seeing is tactics. Which vary from day to day, like skirmishes in a larger war.

    From here, any conceivable deal is a defeat for Johnson. No Deal is his only option.

    Agreed. He and Cummings would have gamed what would be the easiest to spin. Boris as the No Dealer with a heavy heart fits the bill. 'I wanted a deal, I really did, but because the people have spoken/Theresa was crap/the EU are nasty/parliament is uncooperative then No Deal it has to be. Let's make it work!'
    If Boris wins a majority before 31st October ironically he can then finally pass the Withdrawal Agreement with some promise about a technical solution for the Irish border from the EU
    What is your assumption about BXP in any election before 31 October? Do you think an agreement with the Tories will be reached, which Boris then would renege on if he passes a deal, or do you think BXP stand in some places but not enough to harm the Tories, or they stand all over the place but still not well enough to stop BoJo?
    There will be no pact with the Brexit Party as that requires abandoning the Withdrawal Agreement completely, Boris still wants to pass the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop and will campaign on that basis with No Deal a last resort to ensure Brexit on October 31st
    Yes, but what do you think BXP will do in response to that, and what level of effect (or not) do you think their actions will have?
    Little, they are polling no better than UKIP 2015 when the Tories won a majority now, after May extended they were polling up to 25%
    But Lib Dems are a lot stronger. And SW England is no longer safe. Indeed the Home Counties heartland may be vulnerable too ! Labour majorities in the North are far too high in most places.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited September 2019
    kinabalu said:

    A song I've written anyway, to be released on the day (should it ever come) that this whole project collapses under the weight of its contradictions.

    Channeling Don Mclean -

    A long long time ago I can still remember how the Brexit used to make me smile
    And I knew if it had its chance that it would make our people dance and we’d be very happy for a while
    But parliament would always dither, instead of trying to deliver
    Bad news on our doorstep, we couldn’t take one more step
    I’m not ashamed to say I cried when I read that even Boris lied
    And now it seems our hands are tied
    The day the Brexit died

    So bye bye, it was not Do or Die
    Brexit stolen from the People, what a poke in the eye
    Those good ole boys eating pasties and pies, singing all the liberal traitors must die

    I met a friend who voted Leave and asked her if she still believed, but she just shrugged and turned away
    I went on down to the Poundland store, where I’d heard the rumblings weeks before, and a man there said the bastards had to pay
    In Weatherspoons the punters screamed, they hurled abuse and no longer dreamed
    Of chains of Europe broken, those words they all were token
    And the man they trusted like a priest – thought Nigel would surely fight at least
    He’d caught the last plane for Belize
    The day that Brexit died

    And so we’re singing …

    Bye bye, it was not Do or Die
    Brexit stolen from the People, what a poke in the eye
    Those good ole boys eating pasties and pies, saying all the liberal traitors must die
    Saying ALL the liberal traitors must die!

    :-)

    Full marks for effort!
  • HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    I don’t believe that there has been a single case ever of a Prime Minister advising a monarch not to give royal assent to a bill that both Houses of Parliament have passed. So what is being hinted at is literally without precedent.
    So Boris might well do it and defend it with a whinge that Bercow started this?
    What is the “it” that he has the power to do? He is not the Queen and there is no precedent saying that the Prime Minister can counsel the Queen not to give Royal Assent.
    Thst does not mean he cannot do it and he will with 17 million voters behind him to respect the Leave vote
    Wow. What next - Boris unilaterally overturns any law he likes, Boris removes voting rights of MPs, Boris removes the requirement to dissolve parliament, Boris unilaterally overturns any judicial decision, Boris abolishes habeas corpus, Boris declares himself King of Uganda?
  • Scott_P said:
    I suggest these strategists have a look at the audience queuing outside the Rocky Horror Show in northern towns. Working class people have just as wide a selection of views as middle class ones.
    I think most people, what ever their background, have an inate sense of right and wrong when it comes to individual rights and beliefs. The idea that a campaign vilifying a vulnerable minority would gain traction amongst people just because they are 'Northern' or working class is offensive and wrong.
    That's an interesting comment given the leave campaign's concentration on Turkey (and by extension Turks) before the referendum.

    Or are they the 'wrong' minority?
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341
    CatMan said:

    AndyJS said:

    Tony Blair interviewed by Jon Snow on Channel 4 News: "Every morning I wake up thinking about Brexit enraged and in despair".

    If only he thought about Iraq the same way
    I wasn't going to watch C4 News but I will now onC4+1.
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    I don’t believe that there has been a single case ever of a Prime Minister advising a monarch not to give royal assent to a bill that both Houses of Parliament have passed. So what is being hinted at is literally without precedent.
    So Boris might well do it and defend it with a whinge that Bercow started this?
    What is the “it” that he has the power to do? He is not the Queen and there is no precedent saying that the Prime Minister can counsel the Queen not to give Royal Assent.
    Thst does not mean he cannot do it and he will with 17 million voters behind him to respect the Leave vote
    The Queen has no reason to listen to him and will be setting a hugely controversial precedent if she does. Why on earth should she?
    Refuse to refuse royal assent, quite amusing.
    As far as I can see, he has no more role in the giving of royal assent than I have.
    One would hope that all of us, irrespective of our views on Brexit, would agree that a PM even trying to get the Queen to withhold ascent would be utterly, utterly in the wrong and should be removed immediately. I’m on balance mostly ok with the prorogation because there is still time for Parliament to do something about it; but seeking to ignore a Bill passing through both Houses? Yuck.

    I presume the election business is because they can’t stomach it themselves.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,508
    Ian Blackford is a seriously able communicator. Another very talented SNP politician.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Scott_P said:
    It wasn’t really a decision, was it? It was more an emotional reflex on all sides. Now they have to concentrate.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    kle4 said:

    blueblue said:

    Scott_P said:
    Boris will probably be a gentleman and hand over to his brother Jo after two terms!
    Not one of his own sprogs?
    Too difficult to find them .
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    You are a sad human being to ignore other peoples views
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    Anyone still claiming there’s a master strategy? It all looks like Frank Spencer rollerskating tonight.


    There’s clearly a strategy. Get MPs so desperate they eventually agree to a new deal, offered by a spooked EU. Whether it works is moot.

    What you’re seeing is tactics. Which vary from day to day, like skirmishes in a larger war.

    From here, any conceivable deal is a defeat for Johnson. No Deal is his only option.

    Agreed. He and Cummings would have gamed what would be the easiest to spin. Boris as the No Dealer with a heavy heart fits the bill. 'I wanted a deal, I really did, but because the people have spoken/Theresa was crap/the EU are nasty/parliament is uncooperative then No Deal it has to be. Let's make it work!'
    If Boris wins a majority before 31st October ironically he can then finally pass the Withdrawal Agreement with some promise about a technical solution for the Irish border from the EU
    What is your assumption about BXP in any election before 31 October? Do you think an agreement with the Tories will be reached, which Boris then would renege on if he passes a deal, or do you think BXP stand in some places but not enough to harm the Tories, or they stand all over the place but still not well enough to stop BoJo?
    There will be no pact with the Brexit Party as that requires abandoning the Withdrawal Agreement completely, Boris still wants to pass the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop and will campaign on that basis with No Deal a last resort to ensure Brexit on October 31st
    Yes, but what do you think BXP will do in response to that, and what level of effect (or not) do you think their actions will have?
    Little, they are polling no better than UKIP 2015 when the Tories won a majority now, after May extended they were polling up to 25%
    But Lib Dems are a lot stronger. And SW England is no longer safe. Indeed the Home Counties heartland may be vulnerable too ! Labour majorities in the North are far too high in most places.
    Don’t tell them Pike!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Ian Blackford is a seriously able communicator. Another very talented SNP politician.

    A shit of the first water
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    I see that what I wrote at 5:44 pm on the previous thread - "Anyway the important thing now is to work out which of Mrs May’s speeches Boris is going to be copying at 6 pm." - turned out to be prescient.

    If only I could have similar luck at Ascot......
  • Scott_P said:

    Ian Blackford is a seriously able communicator. Another very talented SNP politician.

    A shit of the first water
    Takes one to know one.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,573
    edited September 2019
    kle4 said:

    Whatever happens it'll be the end of the monarchy.

    Is Boris Johnson prepared to put the Queen through that?
    Yes. Next question.
    kle4 said:

    Whatever happens it'll be the end of the monarchy.

    Is Boris Johnson prepared to put the Queen through that?
    Yes. Next question.
    Boris won't try to embarrass HM the Queen. Her Majesty will do the right thing. It won't be the end of the monarchy.

  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/sep/02/uk-factory-output-brexit-eu-manufacturers

    I am reading the Guardian now. Maybe this has been covered on PB already.
  • nichomar said:

    blueblue said:

    HYUFD said:

    From anti Brexit ConsEurope but even it gives the Tories more than Labour plus SNP plus Plaid plus Greens combined with LDs or DUP holding the balance of power
    The campaign and , therefore, equal time has not even started. Give a little bit of time.
    Boris can match any spending promises Corbyn cares to make, and with greater flair too. He also has the advantage of not being a clapped-out, anti-British leftist.

    So advantage Boris.
    So being a man of no morals, a history of lying and god knows what is now rejecting the sensible Tory approach of good management is right to run the country
    If that approach could win the next election, I'd be all for it. But it can't, and the alternative is Corbyn.

    Needs must when the devil drives.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,316
    Cyclefree said:

    I see that what I wrote at 5:44 pm on the previous thread - "Anyway the important thing now is to work out which of Mrs May’s speeches Boris is going to be copying at 6 pm." - turned out to be prescient.

    If only I could have similar luck at Ascot......

    The observation (made here by someone IIRC) that Boris is simply re-running the May government in fast forward continues to be on point.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,573
    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    It wasn’t really a decision, was it? It was more an emotional reflex on all sides. Now they have to concentrate.
    At this moment I suspect a lot of leavers would settle for TMs deal.

  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124

    Drutt said:

    I don’t believe that there has been a single case ever of a Prime Minister advising a monarch not to give royal assent to a bill that both Houses of Parliament have passed. So what is being hinted at is literally without precedent.

    I don’t really understand why anyone thinks the Prime Minister even has a role in this process, never mind a veto.
    *Puts on nerdiest glasses, licks finger and puts it in the air*

    1708 Scottish Militia Bill. Passed both houses but the French were then sighted sailing to Scotland so Queen Anne decided not to trust the Scots with guns.
    There was no Prime Minister then.
    Boh. Out-nerded. *Tips nerdiest hat*
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    kle4 said:

    Full marks for effort!

    :-)

    But what about achievement!

    I always preferred A/C to C/A in school.
  • Scott_P said:
    Yep, the hard Brexiteers could have passed May's Deal and had Brexit months ago. Now it's double or nothing, with the country's whole future on the line.

    The things people do for excitement.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    I don’t believe that there has been a single case ever of a Prime Minister advising a monarch not to give royal assent to a bill that both Houses of Parliament have passed. So what is being hinted at is literally without precedent.
    So Boris might well do it and defend it with a whinge that Bercow started this?
    What is the “it” that he has the power to do? He is not the Queen and there is no precedent saying that the Prime Minister can counsel the Queen not to give Royal Assent.
    Thst does not mean he cannot do it and he will with 17 million voters behind him to respect the Leave vote
    Wow. What next - Boris unilaterally overturns any law he likes, Boris removes voting rights of MPs, Boris removes the requirement to dissolve parliament, Boris unilaterally overturns any judicial decision, Boris abolishes habeas corpus, Boris declares himself King of Uganda?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enabling_Act_of_1933
  • algarkirk said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    It wasn’t really a decision, was it? It was more an emotional reflex on all sides. Now they have to concentrate.
    At this moment I suspect a lot of leavers would settle for TMs deal.

    Yepp. They’ll be kicking themselves as long as they live. Brexit was within their grasp, and they blew it.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    blueblue said:

    nichomar said:

    blueblue said:

    HYUFD said:

    From anti Brexit ConsEurope but even it gives the Tories more than Labour plus SNP plus Plaid plus Greens combined with LDs or DUP holding the balance of power
    The campaign and , therefore, equal time has not even started. Give a little bit of time.
    Boris can match any spending promises Corbyn cares to make, and with greater flair too. He also has the advantage of not being a clapped-out, anti-British leftist.

    So advantage Boris.
    So being a man of no morals, a history of lying and god knows what is now rejecting the sensible Tory approach of good management is right to run the country
    If that approach could win the next election, I'd be all for it. But it can't, and the alternative is Corbyn.

    Needs must when the devil drives.
    The problem is that the more you and the Tories drive to the extreme the more corbyn becomes acceptable. You need to look a little below the line on here to see that corbyn is slowly begging to be a better alternative to Johnson (please stop calling him boris unless you use second names in all posts)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Jezza too frit for an election ? Hilarious..
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    tlg86 said:
    Nonsense though. Any extension is a maximum, it doesn't prevent leaving early if agreement is reached. That was explicit in the current extension.
  • Those are assertions, not facts, about the Parliamentary arithmetic. I suspect we will find out whether they are well-founded fairly soon.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    If true, what an utter disgrace -

    Well that is absolutely disgusting and shameful. @BorisJohnson https://t.co/tspDf10e2C

    — Nora Mulready (@NoraMulready) September 2, 2019
  • Drutt said:

    Drutt said:

    I don’t believe that there has been a single case ever of a Prime Minister advising a monarch not to give royal assent to a bill that both Houses of Parliament have passed. So what is being hinted at is literally without precedent.

    I don’t really understand why anyone thinks the Prime Minister even has a role in this process, never mind a veto.
    *Puts on nerdiest glasses, licks finger and puts it in the air*

    1708 Scottish Militia Bill. Passed both houses but the French were then sighted sailing to Scotland so Queen Anne decided not to trust the Scots with guns.
    There was no Prime Minister then.
    Boh. Out-nerded. *Tips nerdiest hat*
    Pretty much common knowledge that the Stuarts did not have PMs. Or I’m overestimating common knowledge?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    RobD said:
    Surely the SNP can be added on -- They will hardly be able to believe their luck.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237

    Well quite. He’s shot his bolt too soon.

    I wonder if - as I think you yourself speculated recently - 31 Oct will come around with Boris Johnson having neither done nor (quite) died?
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Alexander Johnson has a simple dilemma.
    If he wants to neuter the BXP, he can only offer "Clean Break" Brexit
    Otherwise, the BXP will get between 10-15% of the votes and he cannot get any of the Northern Labour seats.
    If he does offer a "Clean Break" Brexit, there isn't a appetite in the nation for such a strategy. People will not elect a government to do a No Deal Brexit.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Ian Blackford is a seriously able communicator. Another very talented SNP politician.

    Yes he is regardless of what he says.
  • Scott_P said:
    I suggest these strategists have a look at the audience queuing outside the Rocky Horror Show in northern towns. Working class people have just as wide a selection of views as middle class ones.
    I think most people, what ever their background, have an inate sense of right and wrong when it comes to individual rights and beliefs. The idea that a campaign vilifying a vulnerable minority would gain traction amongst people just because they are 'Northern' or working class is offensive and wrong.
    That's an interesting comment given the leave campaign's concentration on Turkey (and by extension Turks) before the referendum.

    Or are they the 'wrong' minority?
    And that is yet another stupid fucking comment from you given I attacked that campaign at the time. Crawl back under your rock.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    kinabalu said:

    A song I've written anyway, to be released on the day (should it ever come) that this whole project collapses under the weight of its contradictions.

    Channeling Don Mclean -

    A long long time ago I can still remember how the Brexit used to make me smile
    And I knew if it had its chance that it would make our people dance and we’d be very happy for a while
    But parliament would always dither, instead of trying to deliver
    Bad news on our doorstep, we couldn’t take one more step
    I’m not ashamed to say I cried when I read that even Boris lied
    And now it seems our hands are tied
    The day the Brexit died

    So bye bye, it was not Do or Die
    Brexit stolen from the People, what a poke in the eye
    Those good ole boys eating pasties and pies, singing all the liberal traitors must die

    I met a friend who voted Leave and asked her if she still believed, but she just shrugged and turned away
    I went on down to the Poundland store, where I’d heard the rumblings weeks before, and a man there said the bastards had to pay
    In Weatherspoons the punters screamed, they hurled abuse and no longer dreamed
    Of chains of Europe broken, those words they all were token
    And the man they trusted like a priest – thought Nigel would surely fight at least
    He’d caught the last plane for Belize
    The day that Brexit died

    And so we’re singing …

    Bye bye, it was not Do or Die
    Brexit stolen from the People, what a poke in the eye
    Those good ole boys eating pasties and pies, saying all the liberal traitors must die
    Saying ALL the liberal traitors must die!

    :-)

    Superb effort.
  • nichomar said:

    blueblue said:

    nichomar said:

    blueblue said:

    HYUFD said:

    From anti Brexit ConsEurope but even it gives the Tories more than Labour plus SNP plus Plaid plus Greens combined with LDs or DUP holding the balance of power
    The campaign and , therefore, equal time has not even started. Give a little bit of time.
    Boris can match any spending promises Corbyn cares to make, and with greater flair too. He also has the advantage of not being a clapped-out, anti-British leftist.

    So advantage Boris.
    So being a man of no morals, a history of lying and god knows what is now rejecting the sensible Tory approach of good management is right to run the country
    If that approach could win the next election, I'd be all for it. But it can't, and the alternative is Corbyn.

    Needs must when the devil drives.
    The problem is that the more you and the Tories drive to the extreme the more corbyn becomes acceptable. You need to look a little below the line on here to see that corbyn is slowly begging to be a better alternative to Johnson (please stop calling him boris unless you use second names in all posts)
    Corbyn will become PM by default, regardless of how "acceptable" he is, unless we can gain more seats fast - it's that simple. I think I can get away with calling the PM Boris since I've met him and we have certain points of background in common.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Those are assertions, not facts, about the Parliamentary arithmetic. I suspect we will find out whether they are well-founded fairly soon.

    Wednesday at the latest :)
  • Scott_P said:
    This is Parliament vs the People now and Boris represents the people.

    If 21 Tory MPs vote to extend and Boris expels all 21 MPs from the Party then anything Farage says is going to look pale in comparison. When you have the left screaming "stop the coup" as we enter an election, when you have Hammond, Clarke, Gauke etc thrown out of the party as well an election to prevent an extension . . . Farage standing against Boris is going to look silly.

    Boris can go into this continuing his current line - we will work to get a deal agreed on 17 Oct and exit do or die on 31 Oct. Farage may complain he doesn't want a deal, but when Boris is literally expelling Remainers from his party he's not going to look weak on Brexit.

    Boris may lose the votes of people like Mr Nabavi, TSE, Big G etc - which is a massive shame if so and I hope not - but the only people Farage will attract are people who would never vote Tory anyway.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Rage from liberal elite doesn't help.

    https://twitter.com/unherd/status/1168599742751891456
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Why was redwood knighted when they could have cut his head off?
  • Alexander Johnson has a simple dilemma.
    If he wants to neuter the BXP, he can only offer "Clean Break" Brexit
    Otherwise, the BXP will get between 10-15% of the votes and he cannot get any of the Northern Labour seats.
    If he does offer a "Clean Break" Brexit, there isn't a appetite in the nation for such a strategy. People will not elect a government to do a No Deal Brexit.

    If BXP voters do that, then Brexit is dead, and they can enjoy the fruits of a Corbyn / SNP / LD coalition, secure in the knowledge that no major party will ever pander to them again. Their choice.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    edited September 2019
    Byronic said:

    egg said:



    ultimately what hurts UK from No Deal is not just the indelible impact on our farming and other industry and business in such a fast forward to global Britain , but the political crisis in Britain extending into the longer term, because we wouldn’t be able to get EU to table and compromise without ourselves climbing down and sucking up exactly what they are currently asking from us. No deal is certainly not the end of it. It is not closure. No deal isn’t actually an answer to anything, it’s a billboard to the world of our failure to achieve that answer. A symbol of failure etched forever into British history.

    Very eloquent. And largely true.

    You ignore one thing though. If we annul the referendum vote with revoke, or a 2nd referendum, that’s a big fat signal to the world that British democracy is over.
    At what point did I say revoke, ignore 2016 result, or call for ref on chance reverse 2016? The argument is leavers should be against no deal, as defeat and lack of closure no deal represents. of course there are other options.

    The bottom line here is we turn to no deal not to pressure the EU, but to put off the inevitable compromise we need to make in order to strike a post brexit deal with the EU.

    Remainer May had years to come up with something she could only try to get passed by keeping people in dark, every bounce in the book, May and her remainer team had years, the clock barely started on PM Boris and his leaver government negotiation. Yes the vote was 2016 but its important to Brexit in the right way, to embed Brexit change, ensure longtivity of Brexit, unnecessarily rush it now, such as No Deal clearly not the preferred deal because of problems it will bring.

    to get it right is better than a bad start that discredits the whole venture. Its clear the deadline is not For Boris, gives Boris too little time to explore the necessary changes, negotiate properly, ithat dates an invention of the EU, designed to frustrate Brexit. Its actually EU tactic using No Deal to pressure May’s replacement with no proper time for negotiation hence Markel saying unfeasible s 30 days.

    If I were Boris I would say, give me till end of March to properly negotiate and pass the right deal

    leaving in a way that discredits the venture is actually betrayal of every leave vote. That’s the truth of this situation. Is there no leaver in the country refusing to see how remainer May wasted time so not prepared to back Boris till 31st March to put it right?

    The bottom line here is brexiteers turn to no deal not to pressure the EU, but out of cowardice, to postpone the inevitable compromise we need to make in order to strike a post brexit deal with the EU. How many times has HY told as as much “need to brexit October 31st or all Leave Tories and voters go to Farage.” See, the no deal is driven by fear.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    RobD said:
    What makes you sure Labour MPs who are mostly Remainers, would oblige.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    nichomar said:

    Why was redwood knighted when they could have cut his head off?

    How very tolerant of other views!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    I don’t believe that there has been a single case ever of a Prime Minister advising a monarch not to give royal assent to a bill that both Houses of Parliament have passed. So what is being hinted at is literally without precedent.

    I don’t really understand why anyone thinks the Prime Minister even has a role in this process, never mind a veto.
    This article by Robert Craig says opinions differ, but on balance concludes that the Queen should follow the government's advice if advised to withhold assent:
    https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2019/01/22/robert-craig-could-the-government-advise-the-queen-to-refuse-royal-assent-to-a-backbench-bill/

    However, it also says that the government is not entitled to give such advice if it has lost the confidence of parliament. So probably a VONC could prevent Johnson from depriving a bill of royal assent.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Honestly, I don't see why Labour would vote for an election, but it would literally be an act of treachery from Con MPs to vote for Jez to become PM. Additionally waiting for 14 days will hurt the remainers more than it will Boris.

    Boris has put everyone in a very tough spot and we're less than two months away from no deal.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    Scott_P said:
    Weapons-grade bantz available for the second one: a PM whipping no confidence in HMG to get an election it 'doesnt want' and LOTO whipping confidence in HMG to avoid an election it 'does want' and minor parties torn between confidence (to forcibly extend A50 and their own employment) and no confidence (to get a GONU they may or may not want but an extension the do).

    But I think the PM would get the votes for 3.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1168601309668360193

    "We shall demonstrate the power, of this fully operational battle station !"
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited September 2019
    Interesting. I wonder what gives him that confidence. Maybe half the PLP will defy Corbyn and abstain. Thirty deselected Tories might do likewiseChange UK plus various independents might add a further twenty five. How would the LibDems vote?If Plaid and the SNP decided to abstain , the numbers might be there to block Johnson - but the SNP sound keen to have an election.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Scott_P said:
    This is Parliament vs the People now and Boris represents the people.

    If 21 Tory MPs vote to extend and Boris expels all 21 MPs from the Party then anything Farage says is going to look pale in comparison. When you have the left screaming "stop the coup" as we enter an election, when you have Hammond, Clarke, Gauke etc thrown out of the party as well an election to prevent an extension . . . Farage standing against Boris is going to look silly.

    Boris can go into this continuing his current line - we will work to get a deal agreed on 17 Oct and exit do or die on 31 Oct. Farage may complain he doesn't want a deal, but when Boris is literally expelling Remainers from his party he's not going to look weak on Brexit.

    Boris may lose the votes of people like Mr Nabavi, TSE, Big G etc - which is a massive shame if so and I hope not - but the only people Farage will attract are people who would never vote Tory anyway.
    He doesn’t represent the people he represents his own narrow financial backers that will help to keep him in power is ho he represents. He is Johnson not boris
  • Scott_P said:
    I think that’s already been dealt with. The government can bring forward legislation to specifically require a GE on a certain date.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    What's with Boris Johnson referring to the leader of HM Opposition as "Corbyn" during a PM statement outside number 10?

    It's "Mr Corbyn" or it's "Jeremy Corbyn" or it's "The Leader of the Opposition".

    Does he think he's in Weatherspoons or at a golf club dinner or something?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:
    What makes you sure Labour MPs who are mostly Remainers, would oblige.
    If Corbyn instructs them to vote for it, how many do you think would rebel?
  • justin124 said:

    Interesting. I wonder what gives him that confidence. Maybe half the PLP will defy Corbyn and abstain. Thirty deselected Tories might do likewiseChange UK plus various independents might add a further twenty five. How would the LibDems vote?If Plaid and the SNP decided to abstain , the numbers might be there to block Johnson - but the SNP sound keen to have an election.
    If Corbyn can’t whip his own MPs to back an election he has been saying he wants for months that will not put him in the greatest of positions, frankly.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698

    Scott_P said:
    I think that’s already been dealt with. The government can bring forward legislation to specifically require a GE on a certain date.
    What's with the 14th? Would we really have a GE on a Monday?
  • Looks like the SCons are going into the election leaderless, and SLab might as well be, for all the good Leonard does.

    Does this matter?

    Yes.

    Sturgeon and Rennie have an open field.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    algarkirk said:

    Byronic said:

    Scott_P said:
    It wasn’t really a decision, was it? It was more an emotional reflex on all sides. Now they have to concentrate.
    At this moment I suspect a lot of leavers would settle for TMs deal.

    Too bad Boris has categorically ruled out bringing it back then, and the other lot won't bother since they want to cancel Brexit.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,814
    edited September 2019

    Scott_P said:
    I think that’s already been dealt with. The government can bring forward legislation to specifically require a GE on a certain date.
    What's with the 14th? Would we really have a GE on a Monday?
    They want it done before the EU Council.

    There’s also no requirement that they be on a Thursday. That’s a convention that’s arisen since the 1930s.
  • kinabalu said:

    What's with Boris Johnson referring to the leader of HM Opposition as "Corbyn" during a PM statement outside number 10?

    It's "Mr Corbyn" or it's "Jeremy Corbyn" or it's "The Leader of the Opposition".

    Does he think he's in Weatherspoons or at a golf club dinner or something?

    If he really wanted to insult Corbyn, he'd call him the Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition.

    The cult would really hate that!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Looks like the SCons are going into the election leaderless, and SLab might as well be, for all the good Leonard does.

    Does this matter?

    Yes.

    Sturgeon and Rennie have an open field.

    The Last election was "Nicola or Ruth"

    This one will be "Nicola or BoZo"
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    edited September 2019
    MaxPB said:

    Honestly, I don't see why Labour would vote for an election, but it would literally be an act of treachery from Con MPs to vote for Jez to become PM. Additionally waiting for 14 days will hurt the remainers more than it will Boris.

    Boris has put everyone in a very tough spot and we're less than two months away from no deal.

    Got a dictionary to hand?

    Good - so look up "treachery".

    And "literally".

    Then edit post accordingly.

    Cheers.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    blueblue said:

    Alexander Johnson has a simple dilemma.
    If he wants to neuter the BXP, he can only offer "Clean Break" Brexit
    Otherwise, the BXP will get between 10-15% of the votes and he cannot get any of the Northern Labour seats.
    If he does offer a "Clean Break" Brexit, there isn't a appetite in the nation for such a strategy. People will not elect a government to do a No Deal Brexit.

    If BXP voters do that, then Brexit is dead, and they can enjoy the fruits of a Corbyn / SNP / LD coalition, secure in the knowledge that no major party will ever pander to them again. Their choice.
    Yes, but some percentage of BXP voters do not trust Boris and would oppose him even if it costs them Brexit. That's why it is funny.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    RobD said:
    What makes you sure Labour MPs who are mostly Remainers, would oblige.
    We keep on being assured that Remain is in a clear majority now. If so, Remainer parties should win easily and be able to put Brexit to the sword in any General Election.

    An election is coming one way or another this year. Most MPs want to survive.

    I think Corbyn will want an election and most Labour MPs will follow their leader.

    In an election, the best way to ensure that you are there in the next Parliament is to be loyal to your party.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Scott_P said:
    Of course. Entirely predictable. The remainer legislation is a catastrophic error, for them.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    kinabalu said:

    What's with Boris Johnson referring to the leader of HM Opposition as "Corbyn" during a PM statement outside number 10?

    It's "Mr Corbyn" or it's "Jeremy Corbyn" or it's "The Leader of the Opposition".

    Does he think he's in Weatherspoons or at a golf club dinner or something?

    Totally right he is boris everybody else is irrelevant
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Cyclefree said:

    If true, what an utter disgrace -

    Well that is absolutely disgusting and shameful. @BorisJohnson https://t.co/tspDf10e2C

    — Nora Mulready (@NoraMulready) September 2, 2019
    Boris loves american politics, there seems little reason to doubt he would adopt culture war tactics.
This discussion has been closed.