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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson channels both Theresa May and Gordon Brown

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  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    malcolmg said:

    FPT
    malcolmg said:

    » show previous quotes
    Did it taste 200 times better than a £50 bottle, or 500 times better than a £20 bottle.

    Even wine experts can only do a little bit better than 50/50 guessing when comparing a £50 or £10 bottle of wine in blind tasting.

    Exactly it is just for rich twunts to try and make themselves feel important


    I would agree with you. Wine gets better and better in flavour up to about £50. Above that you’re paying for something else: rarity, uniqueness, glamour, branding, snob value.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152

    I think I read that as part of the prologuing of parliament washup, all passed bills are automatically given royal assent. Is that right? Be hilarious if Boris is undone by his own coup.

    No they aren't, the Queen can refuse assent to any Bill she likes, there is no constitutional bar. The convention is she approves all bills passed by the Commons and put forward by the executive but in a clash between executive and Parliament and Parliament trying to overturn a democratic referendum result that does not apply.

    The will of the people will be delivered!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    This will end badly.
  • Byronic said:

    Anyone still claiming there’s a master strategy? It all looks like Frank Spencer rollerskating tonight.


    There’s clearly a strategy. Get MPs so desperate they eventually agree to a new deal, offered by a spooked EU. Whether it works is moot.

    What you’re seeing is tactics. Which vary from day to day, like skirmishes in a larger war.

    From here, any conceivable deal is a defeat for Johnson. No Deal is his only option.

  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138

    nunuone said:

    What happens if the rebels lose? Then what? (They wont....but what if....)

    Nothing much, we move to the next cliff edge.
    I swear down, if there's an election, and the voters return another hung parliament I'm going to screeeeeeeeeeeam!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    edited September 2019

    RobD said:

    I think I read that as part of the prologuing of parliament washup, all passed bills are automatically given royal assent. Is that right? Be hilarious if Boris is undone by his own coup.

    In the scenario where the rebel bill is passed, I don't think they were relying on prorogation nullifying it. Rather, they are hoping that there will be a new parliament which could repeal the bill.
    That only works if we have an election. I know we probably will but its not guaranteed.
    Yes, but I think the point about bills being given royal assent automatically during the wash up isn't really relevant.
  • Byronic said:

    Anyone still claiming there’s a master strategy? It all looks like Frank Spencer rollerskating tonight.


    There’s clearly a strategy. Get MPs so desperate they eventually agree to a new deal, offered by a spooked EU. Whether it works is moot.

    What you’re seeing is tactics. Which vary from day to day, like skirmishes in a larger war.
    Surely whether it works is far from moot. And I can guarantee that it won't work. Anyway, amazing tactics. Johnson should have got his dog to make the statement, would have done a better job.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    If MPs back the extension and refuse to give Johnson an election before 31st October, then from what he said just now he either has to resign or break the law.

    The first is looking likely, but the second?

    Johnson resigning as PM would be perfect for Corbyn. Him breaking the law to take us out on a No Deal would be a pretty close second.

    That can only happen after MPs have refused an election, an election that Corbyn said he'd support.

    I am sure an election will be suppoirted. What's at issue is when it is held.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    I think I read that as part of the prologuing of parliament washup, all passed bills are automatically given royal assent. Is that right? Be hilarious if Boris is undone by his own coup.

    No they aren't, the Queen can refuse assent to any Bill she likes, there is no constitutional bar. The convention is she approves all bills passed by the Commons and put forward by the executive but in a clash between executive and Parliament and Parliament trying to overturn a democratic referendum result that does not apply.

    The will of the people will be delivered!
    Oh, are you an expert? What are your qualifications?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Byronic said:

    Anyone still claiming there’s a master strategy? It all looks like Frank Spencer rollerskating tonight.


    There’s clearly a strategy. Get MPs so desperate they eventually agree to a new deal, offered by a spooked EU. Whether it works is moot.

    What you’re seeing is tactics. Which vary from day to day, like skirmishes in a larger war.

    From here, any conceivable deal is a defeat for Johnson. No Deal is his only option.

    As Farage has made very clear - unless BXP stand down the Tories will struggle, and they won't stand down if any deal is possible.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494

    spudgfsh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Laura Kuenssberg says Boris will call a general election for October 14th if the Commons votes for another extension this week

    I half expect him to call a general election on 31st October.
    He may try and delay whatever election date is set. Perhaps we shall find some more foot and mouth disease somewhere. I would put nothing past this shameful PM.
    He gets to set the date under the FTPA though
  • nunuone said:

    nunuone said:

    What happens if the rebels lose? Then what? (They wont....but what if....)

    Nothing much, we move to the next cliff edge.
    I swear down, if there's an election, and the voters return another hung parliament I'm going to screeeeeeeeeeeam!
    Scream away. Expect two GEs this year, as not sure there will even be a workable coalition next time, unless Corbyn is happy to stand aside for a moderate Labour PM.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Anyone still claiming there’s a master strategy? It all looks like Frank Spencer rollerskating tonight.


    There’s clearly a strategy. Get MPs so desperate they eventually agree to a new deal, offered by a spooked EU. Whether it works is moot.

    What you’re seeing is tactics. Which vary from day to day, like skirmishes in a larger war.

    From here, any conceivable deal is a defeat for Johnson. No Deal is his only option.

    Not if he’s just won an election, and can force through a deal. Then he’s got five years in office to boost the economy, as the nation breathes a sigh of relief that the Brexit nightmare is over.

    It’s a big if, but it’s his best chance. A new election. You should wish him well.

    Besides, an election will be good for the country. It will be a de facto 2nd referendum with clear choices. A political blood letting. Then we can heal.

  • tlg86 said:
    Can he not bother to read the full text or does he not understand it?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If MPs back the extension and refuse to give Johnson an election before 31st October, then from what he said just now he either has to resign or break the law.

    Boris will of course refuse to implement an extension using the royal prerogative and would not be breaking the law as Bills need royal signature to become law.

    Though Corbyn said today he would back an election regardless despite Blair warning Corbyn Boris had set an 'elephant trap' for him
    Boris Johnson is not yet the Queen.
    The Queen does what Boris says as she showed when she prorogued Parliament at his request, he is her Chief Minister after all unless the Commons votes for an election or another Chief Minister
    The Queen will think long and hard about becoming the first monarch since Queen Anne to withhold assent. It would be a hugely political act for her to undertake, with or without the Prime Minister’s advice. It would be as controversial as her dismissing the Prime Minister herself.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    GIN1138 said:

    We'll be in a general election campaign by the end of the week.

    Yep.

    Many, many Parliamentary careers are about to end.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    nunuone said:

    nunuone said:

    What happens if the rebels lose? Then what? (They wont....but what if....)

    Nothing much, we move to the next cliff edge.
    I swear down, if there's an election, and the voters return another hung parliament I'm going to screeeeeeeeeeeam!
    If the LDs are kingmakers I think they'll do the same! No way they want to have to prop up Corbyn or the Tories.
  • "There's something quite chilling about listening to the Prime Minister speak outside Downing Street with crowds chanting "stop the coup" and booing in the background. Doesn't feel like the sort of country this normally is."

    Ariel cameras showed about 200 people qround the gates of Downing St. Noisy but unrepresentative.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,847
    edited September 2019
    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Laura Kuenssberg says Boris will call a general election for October 14th if the Commons votes for another extension this week

    I half expect him to call a general election on 31st October.
    He may try and delay whatever election date is set. Perhaps we shall find some more foot and mouth disease somewhere. I would put nothing past this shameful PM.
    He gets to set the date under the FTPA though
    I would imagine parliament does something to take that power away from him! Or ensures the extension is before the election.
  • Well what do you know - another PB hatchet job on Johnson?! Who'd have thunk it??!

    Meanwhile, in the real world, odds on a Con maj at the next GE continue to shorten....
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,045
    Interesting advice from Nick Tyrone to the Lib Dems. At the GE come out for Revoke with the additional message that this will end all discussion of Brexit for the foreseeable future. This appeals to Remainers and the terminally bored.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Byronic said:

    There’s clearly a strategy. Get MPs so desperate they eventually agree to a new deal, offered by a spooked EU. Whether it works is moot.

    What you’re seeing is tactics. Which vary from day to day, like skirmishes in a larger war.

    If you're right and he pulls that off he will be - and I say this with not a trace of irony -

    A Great Man.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    edited September 2019

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If MPs back the extension and refuse to give Johnson an election before 31st October, then from what he said just now he either has to resign or break the law.

    Boris will of course refuse to implement an extension using the royal prerogative and would not be breaking the law as Bills need royal signature to become law.

    Though Corbyn said today he would back an election regardless despite Blair warning Corbyn Boris had set an 'elephant trap' for him
    Boris Johnson is not yet the Queen.
    The Queen does what Boris says as she showed when she prorogued Parliament at his request, he is her Chief Minister after all unless the Commons votes for an election or another Chief Minister
    The Queen will think long and hard about becoming the first monarch since Queen Anne to withhold assent. It would be a hugely political act for her to undertake, with or without the Prime Minister’s advice. It would be as controversial as her dismissing the Prime Minister herself.
    No it wouldn't, voters backed the Queen asserting to proroguing Parliament by an over 20% margin with Survation at the weekend and voters also opposed further extension by 47% to 41% in the same poll (though I suspect the Queen would just dismiss Parliament and order a general election herself if necessary instead so voters can decide before October 31st whether to deliver Brexit or not)
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If MPs back the extension and refuse to give Johnson an election before 31st October, then from what he said just now he either has to resign or break the law.

    Boris will of course refuse to implement an extension using the royal prerogative and would not be breaking the law as Bills need royal signature to become law.

    Though Corbyn said today he would back an election regardless despite Blair warning Corbyn Boris had set an 'elephant trap' for him
    Boris Johnson is not yet the Queen.
    The Queen does what Boris says as she showed when she prorogued Parliament at his request, he is her Chief Minister after all unless the Commons votes for an election or another Chief Minister
    The Queen will think long and hard about becoming the first monarch since Queen Anne to withhold assent. It would be a hugely political act for her to undertake, with or without the Prime Minister’s advice. It would be as controversial as her dismissing the Prime Minister herself.
    One would hope Johnson would think long and hard before trying to put her in that position. But thinking doesn't seem to be his forte.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If MPs back the extension and refuse to give Johnson an election before 31st October, then from what he said just now he either has to resign or break the law.

    Boris will of course refuse to implement an extension using the royal prerogative and would not be breaking the law as Bills need royal signature to become law.

    Though Corbyn said today he would back an election regardless despite Blair warning Corbyn Boris had set an 'elephant trap' for him
    Boris Johnson is not yet the Queen.
    The Queen does what Boris says as she showed when she prorogued Parliament at his request, he is her Chief Minister after all unless the Commons votes for an election or another Chief Minister
    The Queen will think long and hard about becoming the first monarch since Queen Anne to withhold assent. It would be a hugely political act for her to undertake, with or without the Prime Minister’s advice. It would be as controversial as her dismissing the Prime Minister herself.
    No it wouldn't, voters backed the Queen asserting to proroguing Parliament by an over 20% margin with Survation at the weekend and voters also opposed further extension by 47% to 41% in the same poll
    Your usual selective polling. And this is in a different league.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    kinabalu said:

    Byronic said:

    There’s clearly a strategy. Get MPs so desperate they eventually agree to a new deal, offered by a spooked EU. Whether it works is moot.

    What you’re seeing is tactics. Which vary from day to day, like skirmishes in a larger war.

    If you're right and he pulls that off he will be - and I say this with not a trace of irony -

    A Great Man.
    Agreed. A fabulous prize awaits him. The man who delivered a safe Brexit. He will be a genuine hero.

    All he has to do is, well, do it.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    If MPs back the extension and refuse to give Johnson an election before 31st October, then from what he said just now he either has to resign or break the law.

    The first is looking likely, but the second?

    Johnson resigning as PM would be perfect for Corbyn. Him breaking the law to take us out on a No Deal would be a pretty close second.

    That can only happen after MPs have refused an election, an election that Corbyn said he'd support.

    I am sure an election will be suppoirted. What's at issue is when it is held.

    You are "sure an election will be supported"?! How very decent of you!

    Are you suggesting remainers might not "support" an election now or in the future?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Very interesting article in today’s Times by Matthew Syed on the futility of echo chambers where people of similar backgrounds haughtily agree their way of doing things is the right way to the exclusion of other voices... Is he a lurker?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If MPs back the extension and refuse to give Johnson an election before 31st October, then from what he said just now he either has to resign or break the law.

    Boris will of course refuse to implement an extension using the royal prerogative and would not be breaking the law as Bills need royal signature to become law.

    Though Corbyn said today he would back an election regardless despite Blair warning Corbyn Boris had set an 'elephant trap' for him
    Boris Johnson is not yet the Queen.
    The Queen does what Boris says as she showed when she prorogued Parliament at his request, he is her Chief Minister after all unless the Commons votes for an election or another Chief Minister
    The Queen will think long and hard about becoming the first monarch since Queen Anne to withhold assent. It would be a hugely political act for her to undertake, with or without the Prime Minister’s advice. It would be as controversial as her dismissing the Prime Minister herself.
    And if that happened parliament will vote for another PM. Ultimately parliament is sovereign which is why attempts to force no deal need either a GE or referendum. I think it has a better shot at passing in a referendum.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    If MPs back the extension and refuse to give Johnson an election before 31st October, then from what he said just now he either has to resign or break the law.

    The first is looking likely, but the second?

    Johnson resigning as PM would be perfect for Corbyn. Him breaking the law to take us out on a No Deal would be a pretty close second.

    That can only happen after MPs have refused an election, an election that Corbyn said he'd support.
    Surely he will support with conditions attached.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    The BBC headline of 'Election in October if MPs block no deal' beneath a picture of Boris at the lecturn seems somewhat more bullish than the reports here of what he actually said (regardless of what we all know is the plan).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    edited September 2019
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If MPs back the extension and refuse to give Johnson an election before 31st October, then from what he said just now he either has to resign or break the law.

    Boris will of course refuse to implement an extension using the royal prerogative and would not be breaking the law as Bills need royal signature to become law.

    Though Corbyn said today he would back an election regardless despite Blair warning Corbyn Boris had set an 'elephant trap' for him
    Boris Johnson is not yet the Queen.
    The Queen does what Boris says as she showed when she prorogued Parliament at his request, he is her Chief Minister after all unless the Commons votes for an election or another Chief Minister
    The Queen will think long and hard about becoming the first monarch since Queen Anne to withhold assent. It would be a hugely political act for her to undertake, with or without the Prime Minister’s advice. It would be as controversial as her dismissing the Prime Minister herself.
    No it wouldn't, voters backed the Queen asserting to proroguing Parliament by an over 20% margin with Survation at the weekend and voters also opposed further extension by 47% to 41% in the same poll (though I suspect the Queen would just dismiss Parliament and order a general election herself if necessary instead so voters can decide before October 31st whether to deliver Brexit or not)
    If the Commons has passed a bill there should be no reason why it shouldn't receive assent.
  • isam said:

    Very interesting article in today’s Times by Matthew Syed on the futility of echo chambers where people of similar backgrounds haughtily agree their way of doing things is the right way to the exclusion of other voices... Is he a lurker?


    Quite.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152

    HYUFD said:

    I think I read that as part of the prologuing of parliament washup, all passed bills are automatically given royal assent. Is that right? Be hilarious if Boris is undone by his own coup.

    No they aren't, the Queen can refuse assent to any Bill she likes, there is no constitutional bar. The convention is she approves all bills passed by the Commons and put forward by the executive but in a clash between executive and Parliament and Parliament trying to overturn a democratic referendum result that does not apply.

    The will of the people will be delivered!
    Oh, are you an expert? What are your qualifications?
    History and some law
  • Byronic said:

    Anyone still claiming there’s a master strategy? It all looks like Frank Spencer rollerskating tonight.


    There’s clearly a strategy. Get MPs so desperate they eventually agree to a new deal, offered by a spooked EU. Whether it works is moot.

    What you’re seeing is tactics. Which vary from day to day, like skirmishes in a larger war.

    From here, any conceivable deal is a defeat for Johnson. No Deal is his only option.

    Agreed. He and Cummings would have gamed what would be the easiest to spin. Boris as the No Dealer with a heavy heart fits the bill. 'I wanted a deal, I really did, but because the people have spoken/Theresa was crap/the EU are nasty/parliament is uncooperative then No Deal it has to be. Let's make it work!'
  • isam said:

    Very interesting article in today’s Times by Matthew Syed on the futility of echo chambers where people of similar backgrounds haughtily agree their way of doing things is the right way to the exclusion of other voices... Is he a lurker?

    He is a very good writer across a broad range of subjects. I dont know his politics but expect he would make a good MP.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Yorkcity said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    If MPs back the extension and refuse to give Johnson an election before 31st October, then from what he said just now he either has to resign or break the law.

    The first is looking likely, but the second?

    Johnson resigning as PM would be perfect for Corbyn. Him breaking the law to take us out on a No Deal would be a pretty close second.

    That can only happen after MPs have refused an election, an election that Corbyn said he'd support.
    Surely he will support with conditions attached.
    Wasn't the quote on here earlier that it would be supported under any circumstances?

    https://news.sky.com/story/jeremy-corbyn-backs-election-in-any-circumstances-despite-tony-blair-warning-11800714
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited September 2019

    Chris said:

    Quite obviously the point of that is to prevent the thing falling through if Brussels offers a different date from the one the PM is mandated to request.

    It hands the keys to the Commons, not to Brussels.
    A Commons the majority of whom are Remain/Anti No Deal, so in this regard the Commons and Brussels are analogous.
    The country voted a UK parliament in 2017. It is ridiculous to suggest the UK parliament represents the EU and not the UK!!
    Not if the wishes of Parliament and the wishes of the EU are one. And they are - does the make-up of Parliament reflect the result of the 2016 referendum? No.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    isam said:

    Very interesting article in today’s Times by Matthew Syed on the futility of echo chambers where people of similar backgrounds haughtily agree their way of doing things is the right way to the exclusion of other voices... Is he a lurker?

    This place is in no way an echo chamber. That’s why I like it.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    What a triumph!

    I was starting to worry that the fabled Cummings genius was not all that it was cracked up to be, but a visibly discomfited BoZo nearly drowned out by chanting protesters was sublime.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    If MPs back the extension and refuse to give Johnson an election before 31st October, then from what he said just now he either has to resign or break the law.

    The first is looking likely, but the second?

    Johnson resigning as PM would be perfect for Corbyn. Him breaking the law to take us out on a No Deal would be a pretty close second.

    That can only happen after MPs have refused an election, an election that Corbyn said he'd support.

    I am sure an election will be suppoirted. What's at issue is when it is held.

    You are "sure an election will be supported"?! How very decent of you!

    Are you suggesting remainers might not "support" an election now or in the future?

    Nope. Cheers for your interest, though.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If MPs back the extension and refuse to give Johnson an election before 31st October, then from what he said just now he either has to resign or break the law.

    Boris will of course refuse to implement an extension using the royal prerogative and would not be breaking the law as Bills need royal signature to become law.

    Though Corbyn said today he would back an election regardless despite Blair warning Corbyn Boris had set an 'elephant trap' for him
    Boris Johnson is not yet the Queen.
    The Queen does what Boris says as she showed when she prorogued Parliament at his request, he is her Chief Minister after all unless the Commons votes for an election or another Chief Minister
    The Queen will think long and hard about becoming the first monarch since Queen Anne to withhold assent. It would be a hugely political act for her to undertake, with or without the Prime Minister’s advice. It would be as controversial as her dismissing the Prime Minister herself.
    No it wouldn't, voters backed the Queen asserting to proroguing Parliament by an over 20% margin with Survation at the weekend and voters also opposed further extension by 47% to 41% in the same poll (though I suspect the Queen would just dismiss Parliament and order a general election herself if necessary instead so voters can decide before October 31st whether to deliver Brexit or not)
    If the Commons has passed a bill there should be no reason why it shouldn't receive assent.
    There should as the executive would refuse to implement it and it betrays the Leave vote of 2016
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300

    "There's something quite chilling about listening to the Prime Minister speak outside Downing Street with crowds chanting "stop the coup" and booing in the background. Doesn't feel like the sort of country this normally is."

    Ariel cameras showed about 200 people qround the gates of Downing St. Noisy but unrepresentative.

    https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1168575370054000641 Doesn't appear to be the mass of righteous liberal pro EU voices after all.
  • Anyone still claiming there’s a master strategy? It all looks like Frank Spencer rollerskating tonight.

    Actually, Frank Spencer's rollerskating was almost at virtuoso level....

    https://youtu.be/lFLpwRMS00g?t=48
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    slade said:

    Interesting advice from Nick Tyrone to the Lib Dems. At the GE come out for Revoke with the additional message that this will end all discussion of Brexit for the foreseeable future. This appeals to Remainers and the terminally bored.

    Good advice. That’s the obvious niche for the Lib Dem’s to fill. A USP that has the added advantage of absolute clarity. Sure, it’s wildly undemocratic, but this is the Libs.

    In all sincerity: they should do this. It will also be good for voters to have all Brexit options on the ballot.
  • I am going to be neutral on this. I voted remain but want a deal

    I did not vote for Boris and dislike Cummings with a passion

    I blame ERG and others for torpoeding TM sensible deal

    However, a GE is needed ro smoke out Boris support and to negate the argument that he is unelected (if he should win)

    Corbyn needs testing again and in a very different arena to 2017

    Jo Swinson's time has come and I expect the lib dems will do very well

    I do not share HYUFD opinion Boris will win a majority as he will lose most of Scoland, London and the South though Corbyn is likely to be caught in a pincer movement and lose the most seats

    Conclusion their is a real possibility of a labour, lib dem, snp, plaid coalition under another leader who will agree a referendum and that referendum is likely to win due to the change in demography and the young people able to vote

    Caveat - IMHO
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    nunuone said:

    AndyJS said:
    Everyone calm down.

    This is all for the general public, who do NOT want another election.

    He is basically going to spin it as "look what those bad, nasty MP's made me do".

    Doesn't want to get the blame for yet another election.
    When the annoucement is made the BBC needs to track down Brenda and see who she blames.

    If she blames Boris he's toast. If she blames Parliament it could be a Con landslide. :D
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If MPs back the extension and refuse to give Johnson an election before 31st October, then from what he said just now he either has to resign or break the law.

    Boris will of course refuse to implement an extension using the royal prerogative and would not be breaking the law as Bills need royal signature to become law.

    Though Corbyn said today he would back an election regardless despite Blair warning Corbyn Boris had set an 'elephant trap' for him
    Boris Johnson is not yet the Queen.
    The Queen does what Boris says as she showed when she prorogued Parliament at his request, he is her Chief Minister after all unless the Commons votes for an election or another Chief Minister
    The Queen will think long and hard about becoming the first monarch since Queen Anne to withhold assent. It would be a hugely political act for her to undertake, with or without the Prime Minister’s advice. It would be as controversial as her dismissing the Prime Minister herself.
    No it wouldn't, voters backed the Queen asserting to proroguing Parliament by an over 20% margin with Survation at the weekend and voters also opposed further extension by 47% to 41% in the same poll (though I suspect the Queen would just dismiss Parliament and order a general election herself if necessary instead so voters can decide before October 31st whether to deliver Brexit or not)
    If the Commons has passed a bill there should be no reason why it shouldn't receive assent.
    There should as the executive would refuse to implement it and it betrays the Leave vote of 2016
    The executive should accept it has lost, and seek to change the law through more conventional means (i.e. an election!)
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,847
    edited September 2019

    Chris said:

    Quite obviously the point of that is to prevent the thing falling through if Brussels offers a different date from the one the PM is mandated to request.

    It hands the keys to the Commons, not to Brussels.
    A Commons the majority of whom are Remain/Anti No Deal, so in this regard the Commons and Brussels are analogous.
    The country voted a UK parliament in 2017. It is ridiculous to suggest the UK parliament represents the EU and not the UK!!
    Not if the wishes of Parliament and the wishes of the EU are one. And they are - does the make-up of Parliament reflect the result of the 2016 referendum? No.
    Their wishes are clearly not one or we would have a deal and not be on this never ending roundabout!

    A 2017 vote of the people is more recent than a 2016 vote so more representative.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    edited September 2019

    Byronic said:

    Anyone still claiming there’s a master strategy? It all looks like Frank Spencer rollerskating tonight.


    There’s clearly a strategy. Get MPs so desperate they eventually agree to a new deal, offered by a spooked EU. Whether it works is moot.

    What you’re seeing is tactics. Which vary from day to day, like skirmishes in a larger war.

    From here, any conceivable deal is a defeat for Johnson. No Deal is his only option.

    Agreed. He and Cummings would have gamed what would be the easiest to spin. Boris as the No Dealer with a heavy heart fits the bill. 'I wanted a deal, I really did, but because the people have spoken/Theresa was crap/the EU are nasty/parliament is uncooperative then No Deal it has to be. Let's make it work!'
    If Boris wins a majority before 31st October ironically he can then finally pass the Withdrawal Agreement with some promise about a technical solution for the Irish border from the EU
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If MPs back the extension and refuse to give Johnson an election before 31st October, then from what he said just now he either has to resign or break the law.

    Boris will of course refuse to implement an extension using the royal prerogative and would not be breaking the law as Bills need royal signature to become law.

    Though Corbyn said today he would back an election regardless despite Blair warning Corbyn Boris had set an 'elephant trap' for him
    Boris Johnson is not yet the Queen.
    The Queen does what Boris says as she showed when she prorogued Parliament at his request, he is her Chief Minister after all unless the Commons votes for an election or another Chief Minister
    The Queen will think long and hard about becoming the first monarch since Queen Anne to withhold assent. It would be a hugely political act for her to undertake, with or without the Prime Minister’s advice. It would be as controversial as her dismissing the Prime Minister herself.
    No it wouldn't, voters backed the Queen asserting to proroguing Parliament by an over 20% margin with Survation at the weekend and voters also opposed further extension by 47% to 41% in the same poll (though I suspect the Queen would just dismiss Parliament and order a general election herself if necessary instead so voters can decide before October 31st whether to deliver Brexit or not)
    If the Commons has passed a bill there should be no reason why it shouldn't receive assent.
    There should as the executive would refuse to implement it and it betrays the Leave vote of 2016
    You do realise the bill simply requires an extension to be asked for an accepted IF a deal is not agreed?

    As Boris is going to get a deal, this is not a problem.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The only thing that can save Johnson is Labour rebels voting for the government, but I can't see more than about 10 or 15 doing so, which won't be enough.
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341

    In the GE, the remain parties should make up a big thing of killing 10 million lambs in order to no deal. It shows how absurd this has become.

    As opposed to sending them on the back of a lorry to Greece to be killed!
  • dr_spyn said:

    "There's something quite chilling about listening to the Prime Minister speak outside Downing Street with crowds chanting "stop the coup" and booing in the background. Doesn't feel like the sort of country this normally is."

    Ariel cameras showed about 200 people qround the gates of Downing St. Noisy but unrepresentative.

    https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1168575370054000641 Doesn't appear to be the mass of righteous liberal pro EU voices after all.
    Even Marxists have a vote ;)
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    DanSmith said:

    So what are the numbers looking like for tomorrow? How many Labour Leavers are we expecting?

    Fewer than 5 was my guess last time. Don't see any reason to change.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If MPs back the extension and refuse to give Johnson an election before 31st October, then from what he said just now he either has to resign or break the law.

    Boris will of course refuse to implement an extension using the royal prerogative and would not be breaking the law as Bills need royal signature to become law.

    Though Corbyn said today he would back an election regardless despite Blair warning Corbyn Boris had set an 'elephant trap' for him
    Boris Johnson is not yet the Queen.
    The Queen does what Boris says as she showed when she prorogued Parliament at his request, he is her Chief Minister after all unless the Commons votes for an election or another Chief Minister
    The Queen will think long and hard about becoming the first monarch since Queen Anne to withhold assent. It would be a hugely political act for her to undertake, with or without the Prime Minister’s advice. It would be as controversial as her dismissing the Prime Minister herself.
    No it wouldn't, voters backed the Queen asserting to proroguing Parliament by an over 20% margin with Survation at the weekend and voters also opposed further extension by 47% to 41% in the same poll (though I suspect the Queen would just dismiss Parliament and order a general election herself if necessary instead so voters can decide before October 31st whether to deliver Brexit or not)
    If the Commons has passed a bill there should be no reason why it shouldn't receive assent.
    There should as the executive would refuse to implement it and it betrays the Leave vote of 2016
    The executive should accept it has lost, and seek to change the law through more conventional means (i.e. an election!)
    No Parliament should accept the Leave vote of the people.

    Though I agree an election is the likeliest scenario
  • GIN1138 said:

    nunuone said:

    AndyJS said:
    Everyone calm down.

    This is all for the general public, who do NOT want another election.

    He is basically going to spin it as "look what those bad, nasty MP's made me do".

    Doesn't want to get the blame for yet another election.
    When the annoucement is made the BBC needs to track down Brenda and see who she blames.

    If she blames Boris he's toast. If she blames Parliament it could be a Con landslide. :D
    Brenda should have an agent. Imagine an exclusive interview would be worth five figures!
  • Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Anyone still claiming there’s a master strategy? It all looks like Frank Spencer rollerskating tonight.


    There’s clearly a strategy. Get MPs so desperate they eventually agree to a new deal, offered by a spooked EU. Whether it works is moot.

    What you’re seeing is tactics. Which vary from day to day, like skirmishes in a larger war.

    From here, any conceivable deal is a defeat for Johnson. No Deal is his only option.

    Not if he’s just won an election, and can force through a deal. Then he’s got five years in office to boost the economy, as the nation breathes a sigh of relief that the Brexit nightmare is over.

    It’s a big if, but it’s his best chance. A new election. You should wish him well.

    Besides, an election will be good for the country. It will be a de facto 2nd referendum with clear choices. A political blood letting. Then we can heal.

    You think that the ERG and the loons lined up to replace deselected Tory MPs, as well as those who will be replacing Labour MPs, are going to vote through what to all intents and purposes will be May's deal? I would be surprised.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    tlg86 said:
    Hodges is unrecognisable from the arch-Remainer of just 3 years ago.
  • AndyJS said:

    The only thing that can save Johnson is Labour rebels voting for the government, but I can't see more than about 10 or 15 doing so, which won't be enough.

    I would expect it is 1.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616

    I am going to be neutral on this. I voted remain but want a deal

    I did not vote for Boris and dislike Cummings with a passion

    I blame ERG and others for torpoeding TM sensible deal

    However, a GE is needed ro smoke out Boris support and to negate the argument that he is unelected (if he should win)

    Corbyn needs testing again and in a very different arena to 2017

    Jo Swinson's time has come and I expect the lib dems will do very well

    I do not share HYUFD opinion Boris will win a majority as he will lose most of Scoland, London and the South though Corbyn is likely to be caught in a pincer movement and lose the most seats

    Conclusion their is a real possibility of a labour, lib dem, snp, plaid coalition under another leader who will agree a referendum and that referendum is likely to win due to the change in demography and the young people able to vote

    Caveat - IMHO

    Lose London AND THE SOUTH? I think the south will still be there for Boris.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    AndyJS said:

    The only thing that can save Johnson is Labour rebels voting for the government, but I can't see more than about 10 or 15 doing so, which won't be enough.

    He doesn’t want saving. He wants to lose. He wants to be forced into a People V Parliament election, with him on the side of the people.

    Blair is entirely right.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    Anyone still claiming there’s a master strategy? It all looks like Frank Spencer rollerskating tonight.


    There’s clearly a strategy. Get MPs so desperate they eventually agree to a new deal, offered by a spooked EU. Whether it works is moot.

    What you’re seeing is tactics. Which vary from day to day, like skirmishes in a larger war.

    From here, any conceivable deal is a defeat for Johnson. No Deal is his only option.

    Agreed. He and Cummings would have gamed what would be the easiest to spin. Boris as the No Dealer with a heavy heart fits the bill. 'I wanted a deal, I really did, but because the people have spoken/Theresa was crap/the EU are nasty/parliament is uncooperative then No Deal it has to be. Let's make it work!'
    If Boris wins a majority before 31st October ironically he can then finally pass the Withdrawal Agreement with some promise about a technical solution for the Irish border from the EU
    What is your assumption about BXP in any election before 31 October? Do you think an agreement with the Tories will be reached, which Boris then would renege on if he passes a deal, or do you think BXP stand in some places but not enough to harm the Tories, or they stand all over the place but still not well enough to stop BoJo?
  • Scott_P said:
    Hardly an independent commentator. Let us see how the great public view this over the next few days
  • isam said:

    Very interesting article in today’s Times by Matthew Syed on the futility of echo chambers where people of similar backgrounds haughtily agree their way of doing things is the right way to the exclusion of other voices... Is he a lurker?


    Quite.
    Poster 1: 'This place is an echo chamber!'

    Poster 2: 'Quite.'

    Me: Err..

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,152
    AndyJS said:

    The only thing that can save Johnson is Labour rebels voting for the government, but I can't see more than about 10 or 15 doing so, which won't be enough.

    Corbyn will vote with Johnson for an election pre 31st October as he made clear today
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Will be the first time we've not had a general election on a Thursday since 1931 (which was held of a Tuesday)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_Day_(United_Kingdom)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    I am going to be neutral on this. I voted remain but want a deal

    I did not vote for Boris and dislike Cummings with a passion

    I blame ERG and others for torpoeding TM sensible deal

    However, a GE is needed ro smoke out Boris support and to negate the argument that he is unelected (if he should win)

    Corbyn needs testing again and in a very different arena to 2017

    Jo Swinson's time has come and I expect the lib dems will do very well

    I do not share HYUFD opinion Boris will win a majority as he will lose most of Scoland, London and the South though Corbyn is likely to be caught in a pincer movement and lose the most seats

    Conclusion their is a real possibility of a labour, lib dem, snp, plaid coalition under another leader who will agree a referendum and that referendum is likely to win due to the change in demography and the young people able to vote

    Caveat - IMHO

    Lose London AND THE SOUTH? I think the south will still be there for Boris.
    All of it?
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    I am going to be neutral on this. I voted remain but want a deal

    I did not vote for Boris and dislike Cummings with a passion

    I blame ERG and others for torpoeding TM sensible deal

    However, a GE is needed ro smoke out Boris support and to negate the argument that he is unelected (if he should win)

    Corbyn needs testing again and in a very different arena to 2017

    Jo Swinson's time has come and I expect the lib dems will do very well

    I do not share HYUFD opinion Boris will win a majority as he will lose most of Scoland, London and the South though Corbyn is likely to be caught in a pincer movement and lose the most seats

    Conclusion their is a real possibility of a labour, lib dem, snp, plaid coalition under another leader who will agree a referendum and that referendum is likely to win due to the change in demography and the young people able to vote

    Caveat - IMHO

    Sensible stuff. But emphasis on Scotland needed. A mandate-seeking election could be an election that solidifies the SNP mandate for a referendum. That fact alone ought to give Boris pause to think twice.
  • DanSmith said:

    So what are the numbers looking like for tomorrow? How many Labour Leavers are we expecting?

    Fewer than 5 was my guess last time. Don't see any reason to change.

    Any Labour MP who sides with the government whether positively or via abstention will be ending their career as a Labour MP, so it will just be those Leave supporters who are standing down, I'd have thought.

  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    MaxPB said:

    This will end badly.

    Yep.

    But the question is for who (whom?).
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Scott_P said:
    Hardly an independent commentator. Let us see how the great public view this over the next few days
    Mike Galsworthy is a pathetic Remainer gimp.
  • Noo said:

    I am going to be neutral on this. I voted remain but want a deal

    I did not vote for Boris and dislike Cummings with a passion

    I blame ERG and others for torpoeding TM sensible deal

    However, a GE is needed ro smoke out Boris support and to negate the argument that he is unelected (if he should win)

    Corbyn needs testing again and in a very different arena to 2017

    Jo Swinson's time has come and I expect the lib dems will do very well

    I do not share HYUFD opinion Boris will win a majority as he will lose most of Scoland, London and the South though Corbyn is likely to be caught in a pincer movement and lose the most seats

    Conclusion their is a real possibility of a labour, lib dem, snp, plaid coalition under another leader who will agree a referendum and that referendum is likely to win due to the change in demography and the young people able to vote

    Caveat - IMHO

    Sensible stuff. But emphasis on Scotland needed. A mandate-seeking election could be an election that solidifies the SNP mandate for a referendum. That fact alone ought to give Boris pause to think twice.
    Boris will see that as an opportunity to make future England & Wales elections easier to win. He could not care less.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    DanSmith said:

    So what are the numbers looking like for tomorrow? How many Labour Leavers are we expecting?

    Fewer than 5 was my guess last time. Don't see any reason to change.

    Any Labour MP who sides with the government whether positively or via abstention will be ending their career as a Labour MP, so it will just be those Leave supporters who are standing down, I'd have thought.

    Might as well, although since it looks like the government will lose regardless perhaps they won't bother just ot put off that date for a bit.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    kle4 said:

    I am going to be neutral on this. I voted remain but want a deal

    I did not vote for Boris and dislike Cummings with a passion

    I blame ERG and others for torpoeding TM sensible deal

    However, a GE is needed ro smoke out Boris support and to negate the argument that he is unelected (if he should win)

    Corbyn needs testing again and in a very different arena to 2017

    Jo Swinson's time has come and I expect the lib dems will do very well

    I do not share HYUFD opinion Boris will win a majority as he will lose most of Scoland, London and the South though Corbyn is likely to be caught in a pincer movement and lose the most seats

    Conclusion their is a real possibility of a labour, lib dem, snp, plaid coalition under another leader who will agree a referendum and that referendum is likely to win due to the change in demography and the young people able to vote

    Caveat - IMHO

    Lose London AND THE SOUTH? I think the south will still be there for Boris.
    All of it?
    South West will go orange I think. Cameron’s gains evaporated.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,538
    edited September 2019

    If MPs back the extension and refuse to give Johnson an election before 31st October, then from what he said just now he either has to resign or break the law.

    If he calls for an election before the bill reaches the Lords, is it "the law"?

    Edit: sorry, misread. Obviously, if there is no election, it will become law.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    isam said:

    Very interesting article in today’s Times by Matthew Syed on the futility of echo chambers where people of similar backgrounds haughtily agree their way of doing things is the right way to the exclusion of other voices... Is he a lurker?


    Quite.
    Poster 1: 'This place is an echo chamber!'

    Poster 2: 'Quite.'

    Me: Err..

    Err...
  • isam said:

    Very interesting article in today’s Times by Matthew Syed on the futility of echo chambers where people of similar backgrounds haughtily agree their way of doing things is the right way to the exclusion of other voices... Is he a lurker?

    He is a very good writer across a broad range of subjects. I dont know his politics but expect he would make a good MP.
    Labour candidate in 2001 in Wokingham but I think he is more a lib dem today
  • nunuone said:

    MaxPB said:

    This will end badly.

    Yep.

    But the question is for who (whom?).
    Britain.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    kle4 said:

    I am going to be neutral on this. I voted remain but want a deal

    I did not vote for Boris and dislike Cummings with a passion

    I blame ERG and others for torpoeding TM sensible deal

    However, a GE is needed ro smoke out Boris support and to negate the argument that he is unelected (if he should win)

    Corbyn needs testing again and in a very different arena to 2017

    Jo Swinson's time has come and I expect the lib dems will do very well

    I do not share HYUFD opinion Boris will win a majority as he will lose most of Scoland, London and the South though Corbyn is likely to be caught in a pincer movement and lose the most seats

    Conclusion their is a real possibility of a labour, lib dem, snp, plaid coalition under another leader who will agree a referendum and that referendum is likely to win due to the change in demography and the young people able to vote

    Caveat - IMHO

    Lose London AND THE SOUTH? I think the south will still be there for Boris.
    All of it?
    The polling will be crucial. If it looks like Corbyn might actually win - or just be the leader of the biggest party - then yes, terrified southerners (and many others) will peg their noses and vote Boris.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If MPs back the extension and refuse to give Johnson an election before 31st October, then from what he said just now he either has to resign or break the law.

    Boris will of course refuse to implement an extension using the royal prerogative and would not be breaking the law as Bills need royal signature to become law.

    Though Corbyn said today he would back an election regardless despite Blair warning Corbyn Boris had set an 'elephant trap' for him
    Boris Johnson is not yet the Queen.
    The Queen does what Boris says as she showed when she prorogued Parliament at his request, he is her Chief Minister after all unless the Commons votes for an election or another Chief Minister
    The Queen will think long and hard about becoming the first monarch since Queen Anne to withhold assent. It would be a hugely political act for her to undertake, with or without the Prime Minister’s advice. It would be as controversial as her dismissing the Prime Minister herself.
    No it wouldn't, voters backed the Queen asserting to proroguing Parliament by an over 20% margin with Survation at the weekend and voters also opposed further extension by 47% to 41% in the same poll (though I suspect the Queen would just dismiss Parliament and order a general election herself if necessary instead so voters can decide before October 31st whether to deliver Brexit or not)
    If the Commons has passed a bill there should be no reason why it shouldn't receive assent.
    There should as the executive would refuse to implement it and it betrays the Leave vote of 2016
    The executive should accept it has lost, and seek to change the law through more conventional means (i.e. an election!)
    No Parliament should accept the Leave vote of the people.

    Though I agree an election is the likeliest scenario
    I nearly liked that post until I realized you can’t use commas
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    isam said:

    Very interesting article in today’s Times by Matthew Syed on the futility of echo chambers where people of similar backgrounds haughtily agree their way of doing things is the right way to the exclusion of other voices... Is he a lurker?


    Quite.
    Poster 1: 'This place is an echo chamber!'

    Poster 2: 'Quite.'

    Me: Err..

    To Err is human.
  • Byronic said:

    There’s clearly a strategy. Get MPs so desperate they eventually agree to a new deal, offered by a spooked EU. Whether it works is moot.

    What you’re seeing is tactics. Which vary from day to day, like skirmishes in a larger war.

    "Amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals study logistics"
    - Gen. Robert H. Barrow
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited September 2019
    Scott_P said:
    No idea who most of these people are but he was clearly saying:

    I don't want an election. You don't want an election. But if these MPs try and force me to take no deal off the table we'll have to have an election.

    Historically it will be seen as quite an important statement. Obviously soon to be overshadowed by tomorrows or Wednesday's statement...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    tlg86 said:
    There is no end to these people’s obsequious obeisance to Brussels. Nothing their own country wants matters. It’s all about the greater good.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    The only thing that can save Johnson is Labour rebels voting for the government, but I can't see more than about 10 or 15 doing so, which won't be enough.

    Corbyn will vote with Johnson for an election pre 31st October as he made clear today
    He did not it was clear as mud.
    To stop no deal then a GE.
    Then a GE in any circumstances.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    nunuone said:

    MaxPB said:

    This will end badly.

    Yep.

    But the question is for who (whom?).
    Britain.
    No wonder the DUP are content with how things are going then.
    Byronic said:

    kle4 said:

    I am going to be neutral on this. I voted remain but want a deal

    I did not vote for Boris and dislike Cummings with a passion

    I blame ERG and others for torpoeding TM sensible deal

    However, a GE is needed ro smoke out Boris support and to negate the argument that he is unelected (if he should win)

    Corbyn needs testing again and in a very different arena to 2017

    Jo Swinson's time has come and I expect the lib dems will do very well

    I do not share HYUFD opinion Boris will win a majority as he will lose most of Scoland, London and the South though Corbyn is likely to be caught in a pincer movement and lose the most seats

    Conclusion their is a real possibility of a labour, lib dem, snp, plaid coalition under another leader who will agree a referendum and that referendum is likely to win due to the change in demography and the young people able to vote

    Caveat - IMHO

    Lose London AND THE SOUTH? I think the south will still be there for Boris.
    All of it?
    The polling will be crucial. If it looks like Corbyn might actually win - or just be the leader of the biggest party - then yes, terrified southerners (and many others) will peg their noses and vote Boris.
    Maybe. There's quite a few places where they will tell themselves they can vote for the nice LDs, who surely won't back Corbyn, though.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Let’s just remember that MPs are elected to represent the best interests of their constituents, they are not delegates they are just doing their job and people who call them traitors are, I’m afraid, lacking an understanding of how U.K. democracy works
  • DavidL said:

    tlg86 said:
    There is no end to these people’s obsequious obeisance to Brussels. Nothing their own country wants matters. It’s all about the greater good.
    It is not what is provided for in the draft. It takes the power from the Prime Minister and gives it to Parliament.
This discussion has been closed.