I am beginning to think that if Boris nee Cummings frames this as a remain parliament obstructing the vote and he has no choice but to call a GE to put democracy and the people first v the HOC, the elite, HOL and the EU he could just win
He will win. This thread is an echo chamber and just doesnt get it.
Cummings WANTS an election. That has been the plan all along. Jeez....
Of course the opposition MPs know Cummings is trying to goad them into an election. They also know he is desperate for that election to be BEFORE the sh1t hits the fan on October 31st.
Beyond that date he will have either opted for a deal and Farage's mob will be on the march with their pitchforks or he has opted for a chaotic No Deal exit. Once he goes past Oct 31st the prospects of a big election win become far less certain.
No no no...Dont you get it?
If the oppo take control BEFORE then, then it is no longer BoJo's responsibility. If its immediately afterwards then the adverse effects will still not have been fully felt and he will still win. It Brexit is delayed then no one now is going to blame Con Leavers. They will blame Lab, Con remainers and LDs (in that order). Farage's fox has already been shot. Hence the 10-15 point lead for the Cons in the polls.
Remain is trapped.
Just stop telling everyone else that they don't get it and implying we are stupid. Nobody knows how this is going to pan out, w all have different views and yours have no greater validity than anyone else's.
In my opinion Cummings wants an election before Oct 31st hence his ever more desperate antics to goad parliament into doing what he wants. If parliament doesn't oblige then I think you will find that it is Cummings that is trapped as Oct 31st rolls around.
Polls taken before we know what Cummings actually does on Oct 31st are practically meaningless. Have you forgotten that May started her election campaign with a 20 point lead?
I don’t think they want an election until after Brexit - very simple campaign if we are out.
The guys who did it vs the numb nuts who want to rejoin.
If we are out without a deal - that campaign may go rather differently than you think.
I think Boris will do well in an election but I’m not convinced the vote will be efficient. They will pile up new votes in Labour seats with huge majorities but not win them.
What reason do you give for that?
The safest Labour seats by and large, along with the safest SNP seats are the seats where Remain piled up large majorities.
Swing seats tended to be won by Leave.
What you are effectively saying is they will pile up votes in Remain seats. Seems unlikely.
60% of Labour constituencies voted leave.
Yes and those 60% largely include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
The 40% largely won't include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
If Boris can win the target seats within the 60% I don't think he'll care too much if he also wins votes in other ones he wasn't targetting. What matters is the target seats.
What I’m saying is that the people Boris is now appealing to, for example the Northern Working Class, live in relatively safe Labour seats. Boris can pile up new Tory votes in these places and still not win any of them.
My seat is a prime example. 57% Leave. MP is a ‘diehard Remainer’.
Labour will easily retain it.
Do you have any evidence for that?
Your seat may be an example, but there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and similary] swing seats too. Winning votes in your seat doesn't preclude winning votes in swing seats.
In fact as has been regularly posted here before the bulk of swing seats fit within a simple type: suburban towns.
Inner cities tend to be Labour, the rural areas tend to be Tory. It is suburban towns that tend to decide who wins elections and there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and comparable] swing voters in suburban towns.
There are a lot of swing seats across the North West and Midlands.
This is Labour country. Hatred of the Tories runs deep. Brexit does not change that.
I think Boris will do well in an election but I’m not convinced the vote will be efficient. They will pile up new votes in Labour seats with huge majorities but not win them.
What reason do you give for that?
The safest Labour seats by and large, along with the safest SNP seats are the seats where Remain piled up large majorities.
Swing seats tended to be won by Leave.
What you are effectively saying is they will pile up votes in Remain seats. Seems unlikely.
60% of Labour constituencies voted leave.
Yes and those 60% largely include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
The 40% largely won't include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
If Boris can win the target seats within the 60% I don't think he'll care too much if he also wins votes in other ones he wasn't targetting. What matters is the target seats.
What I’m saying is that the people Boris is now appealing to, for example the Northern Working Class, live in relatively safe Labour seats. Boris can pile up new Tory votes in these places and still not win any of them.
My seat is a prime example. 57% Leave. MP is a ‘diehard Remainer’.
Labour will easily retain it.
Do you have any evidence for that?
Your seat may be an example, but there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and similary] swing seats too. Winning votes in your seat doesn't preclude winning votes in swing seats.
In fact as has been regularly posted here before the bulk of swing seats fit within a simple type: suburban towns.
Inner cities tend to be Labour, the rural areas tend to be Tory. It is suburban towns that tend to decide who wins elections and there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and comparable] swing voters in suburban towns.
There are a lot of swing seats across the North West and Midlands.
This is Labour country. Hatred of the Tories runs deep. Brexit does not change that.
My experience is that this "hatred" ( a bad and unpleasant word in politics, dont you think) has been somewhat lessened in recent years by a countervailing "hatred" of the new London metropolitan Labour Party as exemplified by Corbyn?
Just a thought...
What is your experience? Have you been door knocking in the North East?
I think Boris will do well in an election but I’m not convinced the vote will be efficient. They will pile up new votes in Labour seats with huge majorities but not win them.
What reason do you give for that?
The safest Labour seats by and large, along with the safest SNP seats are the seats where Remain piled up large majorities.
Swing seats tended to be won by Leave.
What you are effectively saying is they will pile up votes in Remain seats. Seems unlikely.
60% of Labour constituencies voted leave.
Yes and those 60% largely include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
The 40% largely won't include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
If Boris can win the target seats within the 60% I don't think he'll care too much if he also wins votes in other ones he wasn't targetting. What matters is the target seats.
What I’m saying is that the people Boris is now appealing to, for example the Northern Working Class, live in relatively safe Labour seats. Boris can pile up new Tory votes in these places and still not win any of them.
My seat is a prime example. 57% Leave. MP is a ‘diehard Remainer’.
Labour will easily retain it.
Do you have any evidence for that?
Your seat may be an example, but there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and similary] swing seats too. Winning votes in your seat doesn't preclude winning votes in swing seats.
In fact as has been regularly posted here before the bulk of swing seats fit within a simple type: suburban towns.
Inner cities tend to be Labour, the rural areas tend to be Tory. It is suburban towns that tend to decide who wins elections and there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and comparable] swing voters in suburban towns.
There are a lot of swing seats across the North West and Midlands.
This is Labour country. Hatred of the Tories runs deep. Brexit does not change that.
My experience is that this "hatred" ( a bad and unpleasant word in politics, dont you think) has been somewhat lessened in recent years by a countervailing "hatred" of the new London metropolitan Labour Party as exemplified by Corbyn?
Just a thought...
What is your experience? Have you been door knocking in the North East?
I think Boris will do well in an election but I’m not convinced the vote will be efficient. They will pile up new votes in Labour seats with huge majorities but not win them.
What reason do you give for that?
The safest Labour seats by and large, along with the safest SNP seats are the seats where Remain piled up large majorities.
Swing seats tended to be won by Leave.
What you are effectively saying is they will pile up votes in Remain seats. Seems unlikely.
60% of Labour constituencies voted leave.
Yes and those 60% largely include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
The 40% largely won't include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
If Boris can win the target seats within the 60% I don't think he'll care too much if he also wins votes in other ones he wasn't targetting. What matters is the target seats.
What I’m saying is that the people Boris is now appealing to, for example the Northern Working Class, live in relatively safe Labour seats. Boris can pile up new Tory votes in these places and still not win any of them.
My seat is a prime example. 57% Leave. MP is a ‘diehard Remainer’.
Labour will easily retain it.
Do you have any evidence for that?
Your seat may be an example, but there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and similary] swing seats too. Winning votes in your seat doesn't preclude winning votes in swing seats.
In fact as has been regularly posted here before the bulk of swing seats fit within a simple type: suburban towns.
Inner cities tend to be Labour, the rural areas tend to be Tory. It is suburban towns that tend to decide who wins elections and there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and comparable] swing voters in suburban towns.
There are a lot of swing seats across the North West and Midlands.
This is Labour country. Hatred of the Tories runs deep. Brexit does not change that.
My experience is that this "hatred" ( a bad and unpleasant word in politics, dont you think) has been somewhat lessened in recent years by a countervailing "hatred" of the new London metropolitan Labour Party as exemplified by Corbyn?
Just a thought...
What is your experience? Have you been door knocking in the North East?
Have you in the North West?
I'm not claiming to know anything about the North West.
I think Boris will do well in an election but I’m not convinced the vote will be efficient. They will pile up new votes in Labour seats with huge majorities but not win them.
What reason do you give for that?
The safest Labour seats by and large, along with the safest SNP seats are the seats where Remain piled up large majorities.
Swing seats tended to be won by Leave.
What you are effectively saying is they will pile up votes in Remain seats. Seems unlikely.
60% of Labour constituencies voted leave.
Yes and those 60% largely include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
The 40% largely won't include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
If Boris can win the target seats within the 60% I don't think he'll care too much if he also wins votes in other ones he wasn't targetting. What matters is the target seats.
What I’m saying is that the people Boris is now appealing to, for example the Northern Working Class, live in relatively safe Labour seats. Boris can pile up new Tory votes in these places and still not win any of them.
My seat is a prime example. 57% Leave. MP is a ‘diehard Remainer’.
Labour will easily retain it.
Do you have any evidence for that?
Your seat may be an example, but there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and similary] swing seats too. Winning votes in your seat doesn't preclude winning votes in swing seats.
In fact as has been regularly posted here before the bulk of swing seats fit within a simple type: suburban towns.
Inner cities tend to be Labour, the rural areas tend to be Tory. It is suburban towns that tend to decide who wins elections and there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and comparable] swing voters in suburban towns.
There are a lot of swing seats across the North West and Midlands.
This is Labour country. Hatred of the Tories runs deep. Brexit does not change that.
Which is moot. So too are many inner city highly Remain places like inner London and Liverpool.
What matters are the swing seats. Is Boris targeting swing voters in swing seats?
Swing voters and swing seats are changing their meaning. It no longer means what it used to mean.
I am beginning to think that if Boris nee Cummings frames this as a remain parliament obstructing the vote and he has no choice but to call a GE to put democracy and the people first v the HOC, the elite, HOL and the EU he could just win
He will win. This thread is an echo chamber and just doesnt get it.
Cummings WANTS an election. That has been the plan all along. Jeez....
Of course the opposition MPs know Cummings is trying to goad them into an election. They also know he is desperate for that election to be BEFORE the sh1t hits the fan on October 31st.
Beyond that date he will have either opted for a deal and Farage's mob will be on the march with their pitchforks or he has opted for a chaotic No Deal exit. Once he goes past Oct 31st the prospects of a big election win become far less certain.
No no no...Dont you get it?
If the oppo take control BEFORE then, then it is no longer BoJo's responsibility. If its immediately afterwards then the adverse effects will still not have been fully felt and he will still win. It Brexit is delayed then no one now is going to blame Con Leavers. They will blame Lab, Con remainers and LDs (in that order). Farage's fox has already been shot. Hence the 10-15 point lead for the Cons in the polls.
Remain is trapped.
Just stop telling everyone else that they don't get it and implying we are stupid. Nobody knows how this is going to pan out, w all have different views and yours have no greater validity than anyone else's.
In my opinion Cummings wants an election before Oct 31st hence his ever more desperate antics to goad parliament into doing what he wants. If parliament doesn't oblige then I think you will find that it is Cummings that is trapped as Oct 31st rolls around.
Polls taken before we know what Cummings actually does on Oct 31st are practically meaningless. Have you forgotten that May started her election campaign with a 20 point lead?
I don’t think they want an election until after Brexit - very simple campaign if we are out.
The guys who did it vs the numb nuts who want to rejoin.
You are obviously of the opinion that after experiencing a No Deal Brexit a grateful nation will carry Johnson shoulder high and give him a huge majority. I see it panning out slightly differently.
I am beginning to think that if Boris nee Cummings frames this as a remain parliament obstructing the vote and he has no choice but to call a GE to put democracy and the people first v the HOC, the elite, HOL and the EU he could just win
He will win. This thread is an echo chamber and just doesnt get it.
Cummings WANTS an election. That has been the plan all along. Jeez....
Of course the opposition MPs know Cummings is trying to goad them into an election. They also know he is desperate for that election to be BEFORE the sh1t hits the fan on October 31st.
Beyond that date he will have either opted for a deal and Farage's mob will be on the march with their pitchforks or he has opted for a chaotic No Deal exit. Once he goes past Oct 31st the prospects of a big election win become far less certain.
No no no...Dont you get it?
If the oppo take control BEFORE then, then it is no longer BoJo's responsibility. If its immediately afterwards then the adverse effects will still not have been fully felt and he will still win. It Brexit is delayed then no one now is going to blame Con Leavers. They will blame Lab, Con remainers and LDs (in that order). Farage's fox has already been shot. Hence the 10-15 point lead for the Cons in the polls.
Remain is trapped.
Just stop telling everyone else that they don't get it and implying we are stupid. Nobody knows how this is going to pan out, w all have different views and yours have no greater validity than anyone else's.
In my opinion Cummings wants an election before Oct 31st hence his ever more desperate antics to goad parliament into doing what he wants. If parliament doesn't oblige then I think you will find that it is Cummings that is trapped as Oct 31st rolls around.
Polls taken before we know what Cummings actually does on Oct 31st are practically meaningless. Have you forgotten that May started her election campaign with a 20 point lead?
I don’t think they want an election until after Brexit - very simple campaign if we are out.
The guys who did it vs the numb nuts who want to rejoin.
If we are out without a deal - that campaign may go rather differently than you think.
Or it might not.
Yes but Johnson's window for victory is small. After no deal the time between a Johnson landslide and a Corbyn majority could be very tight if things start to get messy.
This is Labour country. Hatred of the Tories runs deep. Brexit does not change that.
My experience is that this "hatred" ( a bad and unpleasant word in politics, dont you think) has been somewhat lessened in recent years by a countervailing "hatred" of the new London metropolitan Labour Party as exemplified by Corbyn?
Just a thought...
Nope - Corbyn is liked around here as you could witness at this years (and previous years) Durham Miner's Gala.
Sorry to be a pedant but thats in the NE.....
Which is the area Gallowgate and myself know and were talking about.
And there are a few swing seats around here - I don't think any of them will go to the Tories though.
Yes but Johnson's window for victory is small. After no deal the time between a Johnson landslide and a Corbyn majority could be very tight if things start to get messy.
Depends how messy.
If its a temporary blip that is overcome then like the Fuel Protests of 2000 which saw Hague poll leads in the polls prior to the Blair landslide of 2001 I think it will be much ado about nothing.
I'm not claiming to know anything about the North West.
I do, I live here.
But there's more swing seats in the North West than the North East so why are you assuming the strategy will fail?
Because I think Labour will focus on Austerity and the areas that Boris isn't re-funding. So far it's police and schools - Social care is going to require billions to fix and hasn't been mentioned..
And in a lot of areas Universal Credit is just kicking in now and is significantly reducing incomes.
I'm not claiming to know anything about the North West.
I do, I live here.
But there's more swing seats in the North West than the North East so why are you assuming the strategy will fail?
Is there polling or electoral evidence of a waterfall of Labour seats turning blue in the NW?
2010 and 2015.
There are a lot of swing seats here. If the Tories are to gain a majority back then it will be via winning votes here and in the Midlands, not where you're based.
This is Labour country. Hatred of the Tories runs deep. Brexit does not change that.
My experience is that this "hatred" ( a bad and unpleasant word in politics, dont you think) has been somewhat lessened in recent years by a countervailing "hatred" of the new London metropolitan Labour Party as exemplified by Corbyn?
Just a thought...
Nope - Corbyn is liked around here as you could witness at this years (and previous years) Durham Miner's Gala.
Sorry to be a pedant but thats in the NE.....
Which is the area Gallowgate and myself know and were talking about.
And there are a few swing seats around here - I don't think any of them will go to the Tories though.
Bishop Auckland maybe.
Although I notice the (rather fit) candidate is rattled by the Brexit Party.
I am beginning to think that if Boris nee Cummings frames this as a remain parliament obstructing the vote and he has no choice but to call a GE to put democracy and the people first v the HOC, the elite, HOL and the EU he could just win
He will win. This thread is an echo chamber and just doesnt get it.
Cummings WANTS an election. That has been the plan all along. Jeez....
Of course the opposition MPs know Cummings is trying to goad them into an election. They also know he is desperate for that election to be BEFORE the sh1t hits the fan on October 31st.
Beyond that date he will have either opted for a deal and Farage's mob will be on the march with their pitchforks or he has opted for a chaotic No Deal exit. Once he goes past Oct 31st the prospects of a big election win become far less certain.
No no no...Dont you get it?
If the oppo take control BEFORE then, then it is no longer BoJo's responsibility. If its immediately afterwards then the adverse effects will still not have been fully felt and he will still win. It Brexit is delayed then no one now is going to blame Con Leavers. They will blame Lab, Con remainers and LDs (in that order). Farage's fox has already been shot. Hence the 10-15 point lead for the Cons in the polls.
Remain is trapped.
Just stop telling everyone else that they don't get it and implying we are stupid. Nobody knows how this is going to pan out, w all have different views and yours have no greater validity than anyone else's.
In my opinion Cummings wants an election before Oct 31st hence his ever more desperate antics to goad parliament into doing what he wants. If parliament doesn't oblige then I think you will find that it is Cummings that is trapped as Oct 31st rolls around.
Polls taken before we know what Cummings actually does on Oct 31st are practically meaningless. Have you forgotten that May started her election campaign with a 20 point lead?
I don’t think they want an election until after Brexit - very simple campaign if we are out.
The guys who did it vs the numb nuts who want to rejoin.
You are obviously of the opinion that after experiencing a No Deal Brexit a grateful nation will carry Johnson shoulder high and give him a huge majority. I see it panning out slightly differently.
Well the remainers have lowered expectations for a no deal scenario so much that chances are expectation will be positive.
No downside? What is he going to do when the sheep are burning in the fields and petrol is running dry?
1) any election will be before then, and anyway... 2) thus wont happen.
I look forward to continuing this exchange in the weeks after 31st Oct....
For an election to happen before October 31st it needs to be called before parliament is prorogued. If parliament is prorogued without having forced Boris to extend or given him an election, he'll be stuffed.
No he wont. He is now indelibly associated with leave by voters.
If we remain he wins. If we leave he wins.
If we're still in the EU on November 1st and Johnson is still in Downing Street, how will he avoid being tainted? When Theresa May extended, he said it was nothing to do with MPs but because she was "chicken".
This is Labour country. Hatred of the Tories runs deep. Brexit does not change that.
My experience is that this "hatred" ( a bad and unpleasant word in politics, dont you think) has been somewhat lessened in recent years by a countervailing "hatred" of the new London metropolitan Labour Party as exemplified by Corbyn?
Just a thought...
Nope - Corbyn is liked around here as you could witness at this years (and previous years) Durham Miner's Gala.
Sorry to be a pedant but thats in the NE.....
Which is the area Gallowgate and myself know and were talking about.
And there are a few swing seats around here - I don't think any of them will go to the Tories though.
Bishop Auckland maybe.
Although I notice the (rather fit) candidate is rattled by the Brexit Party.
I'm not claiming to know anything about the North West.
I do, I live here.
But there's more swing seats in the North West than the North East so why are you assuming the strategy will fail?
Is there polling or electoral evidence of a waterfall of Labour seats turning blue in the NW?
2010 and 2015.
There are a lot of swing seats here. If the Tories are to gain a majority back then it will be via winning votes here and in the Midlands, not where you're based.
Things are rather different now than in 2015 don't you think? What seats specifically do you see going Blue?
Yes but Johnson's window for victory is small. After no deal the time between a Johnson landslide and a Corbyn majority could be very tight if things start to get messy.
Depends how messy.
If its a temporary blip that is overcome then like the Fuel Protests of 2000 which saw Hague poll leads in the polls prior to the Blair landslide of 2001 I think it will be much ado about nothing.
Weren't the fuel protests dealt with by giving in to the protesters? Who does the government give in to to resolve the No Deal chaos?
Yes but Johnson's window for victory is small. After no deal the time between a Johnson landslide and a Corbyn majority could be very tight if things start to get messy.
Depends how messy.
If its a temporary blip that is overcome then like the Fuel Protests of 2000 which saw Hague poll leads in the polls prior to the Blair landslide of 2001 I think it will be much ado about nothing.
Weren't the fuel protests dealt with by giving in to the protesters? Who does the government give in to to resolve the No Deal chaos?
Probably will go crying to the EU with his tail between his legs.
Well the remainers have lowered expectations for a no deal scenario so much that chances are expectation will be positive.
Indeed.
Success = Reality minus Expectations.
Remainers have done a fantastic job at lowering expectations. If the country still has insulin and airplanes by Christmas that is going to exceed some people's expectations it seems.
I am beginning to think that if Boris nee Cummings frames this as a remain parliament obstructing the vote and he has no choice but to call a GE to put democracy and the people first v the HOC, the elite, HOL and the EU he could just win
He will win. This thread is an echo chamber and just doesnt get it.
Cummings WANTS an election. That has been the plan all along. Jeez....
Of course he wants an election. But he can’t get one without the cooperation of his opponents. They’re unlikely to give it
Which means Corbyn a PM for 6 months. WHICH DESTROYS CON REMAINERS AND THE LIB DEMS WHEN THE ELECTION HAPPENS IN APRIL.
Just how dense are you people?
Not at all. Boris Johnson can be trapped in office.
You just dont get it all.
If parliament is prorogued without having taken No Deal off the table or giving Johnson an election, will his strategy have failed?
It really wont. Because someone has to govern. And if that is not the Cons then it must include Labour, with all the oppo parties in the SHORT interregnum becoming tainted by association.
Cummings WANTS to fight a Corbyn-led Party. Even better a government that includes a Corbyn-led Labour...
I think you missed my point. If the opposition sit on their hands and collectively say, "Ok, Boris, let's see if threatening No Deal forces the EU to capitulate," what can he do?
He can LEAVE.
He's told everyone that if the EU believe we will leave with No Deal, they will buckle. What will he do if he comes back from the European Council meeting empty handed? He's bluffing.
He's not bluffing. He intends to leave. If the EU offered him a deal he would turn it down on a pretext.
No. He would prefer a deal. But he will leave without one if necessary. There is no domestic political downside for him either way now.
That is the beauty (for him) of his post-May strategy....
No downside? What is he going to do when the sheep are burning in the fields and petrol is running dry?
Petrol isn't wet. Therefore, is it fair to say that it always runs dry?
No downside? What is he going to do when the sheep are burning in the fields and petrol is running dry?
1) any election will be before then, and anyway... 2) thus wont happen.
I look forward to continuing this exchange in the weeks after 31st Oct....
For an election to happen before October 31st it needs to be called before parliament is prorogued. If parliament is prorogued without having forced Boris to extend or given him an election, he'll be stuffed.
No he wont. He is now indelibly associated with leave by voters.
If we remain he wins. If we leave he wins.
If we're still in the EU on November 1st and Johnson is still in Downing Street, how will he avoid being tainted? When Theresa May extended, he said it was nothing to do with MPs but because she was "chicken".
There are no scenarios in which there is PM Boris and still in the EU on 1st Nov.
No downside? What is he going to do when the sheep are burning in the fields and petrol is running dry?
1) any election will be before then, and anyway... 2) thus wont happen.
I look forward to continuing this exchange in the weeks after 31st Oct....
For an election to happen before October 31st it needs to be called before parliament is prorogued. If parliament is prorogued without having forced Boris to extend or given him an election, he'll be stuffed.
No he wont. He is now indelibly associated with leave by voters.
If we remain he wins. If we leave he wins.
If we're still in the EU on November 1st and Johnson is still in Downing Street, how will he avoid being tainted? When Theresa May extended, he said it was nothing to do with MPs but because she was "chicken".
There are no scenarios in which there is PM Boris and still in the EU on 1st Nov.
That's quite the statement. Please tell me next weeks lottery numbers?
I'm not claiming to know anything about the North West.
I do, I live here.
But there's more swing seats in the North West than the North East so why are you assuming the strategy will fail?
Is there polling or electoral evidence of a waterfall of Labour seats turning blue in the NW?
2010 and 2015.
There are a lot of swing seats here. If the Tories are to gain a majority back then it will be via winning votes here and in the Midlands, not where you're based.
That is true. Although, these were the very areas where it was expected last time. The Tory performance in the NW compared with expectations, in 2017, though, was dire. As was Yorkshire and Wales. Certainly in seat terms. Midlands less so.
Well the remainers have lowered expectations for a no deal scenario so much that chances are expectation will be positive.
Indeed.
Success = Reality minus Expectations.
Remainers have done a fantastic job at lowering expectations. If the country still has insulin and airplanes by Christmas that is going to exceed some people's expectations it seems.
This is a country where there were 999 calls because KFC didn't get deliveries even after it was the 2nd item on the news.
No downside? What is he going to do when the sheep are burning in the fields and petrol is running dry?
1) any election will be before then, and anyway... 2) thus wont happen.
I look forward to continuing this exchange in the weeks after 31st Oct....
For an election to happen before October 31st it needs to be called before parliament is prorogued. If parliament is prorogued without having forced Boris to extend or given him an election, he'll be stuffed.
No he wont. He is now indelibly associated with leave by voters.
If we remain he wins. If we leave he wins.
If we're still in the EU on November 1st and Johnson is still in Downing Street, how will he avoid being tainted? When Theresa May extended, he said it was nothing to do with MPs but because she was "chicken".
There are no scenarios in which there is PM Boris and still in the EU on 1st Nov.
That's quite the statement. Please tell me next weeks lottery numbers?
If you want to be in the EU after 31/10 you need to VONC Boris and find a new PM that the house will support.
I think Boris will do well in an election but I’m not convinced the vote will be efficient. They will pile up new votes in Labour seats with huge majorities but not win them.
What reason do you give for that?
The safest Labour seats by and large, along with the safest SNP seats are the seats where Remain piled up large majorities.
Swing seats tended to be won by Leave.
What you are effectively saying is they will pile up votes in Remain seats. Seems unlikely.
60% of Labour constituencies voted leave.
Yes and those 60% largely include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
The 40% largely won't include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
If Boris can win the target seats within the 60% I don't think he'll care too much if he also wins votes in other ones he wasn't targetting. What matters is the target seats.
What I’m saying is that the people Boris is now appealing to, for example the Northern Working Class, live in relatively safe Labour seats. Boris can pile up new Tory votes in these places and still not win any of them.
My seat is a prime example. 57% Leave. MP is a ‘diehard Remainer’.
Labour will easily retain it.
Do you have any evidence for that?
Your seat may be an example, but there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and similary] swing seats too. Winning votes in your seat doesn't preclude winning votes in swing seats.
In fact as has been regularly posted here before the bulk of swing seats fit within a simple type: suburban towns.
Inner cities tend to be Labour, the rural areas tend to be Tory. It is suburban towns that tend to decide who wins elections and there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and comparable] swing voters in suburban towns.
There are a lot of swing seats across the North West and Midlands.
This is Labour country. Hatred of the Tories runs deep. Brexit does not change that.
Well the remainers have lowered expectations for a no deal scenario so much that chances are expectation will be positive.
Indeed.
Success = Reality minus Expectations.
Remainers have done a fantastic job at lowering expectations. If the country still has insulin and airplanes by Christmas that is going to exceed some people's expectations it seems.
If I watch a football match expecting Newcastle to lose 5-0 and they only lose 4-0 I still think Mike Ashley is a bald, fat, sorry excuse for a man.
Well the remainers have lowered expectations for a no deal scenario so much that chances are expectation will be positive.
Indeed.
Success = Reality minus Expectations.
Remainers have done a fantastic job at lowering expectations. If the country still has insulin and airplanes by Christmas that is going to exceed some people's expectations it seems.
If I watch a football match expecting Newcastle to lose 5-0 and they only lose 4-0 I still think Mike Ashley is a bald, fat, sorry excuse for a man.
Even if Newcastle won 5-0, Mike Ashley would still be a bald, fat, sorry excuse for a man.
I'm not claiming to know anything about the North West.
I do, I live here.
But there's more swing seats in the North West than the North East so why are you assuming the strategy will fail?
Is there polling or electoral evidence of a waterfall of Labour seats turning blue in the NW?
2010 and 2015.
There are a lot of swing seats here. If the Tories are to gain a majority back then it will be via winning votes here and in the Midlands, not where you're based.
Things are rather different now than in 2015 don't you think? What seats specifically do you see going Blue?
I'd be surprised if these don't flip: Crewe and Nantwich Barrow and Furness Warrington South
Potentially also: Blackpool South Weaver Vale
That's without counting the Midlands or anywhere else. More chances there than the North East I imagine.
Mr Rees-Mogg, who went to Balmoral to gain the Queen's approval for the dramatic suspension last week, lays down the gauntlet as an exclusive Mail on Sunday poll predicts Mr Johnson would win a majority of 28 seats in an Election – rising to 84 if Nigel Farage's Brexit Party stands aside.
35% - Tory 24% - Labour 18% - Lib Dem 14% - Brexit
Interesting on that poll while the Brexit Party take 6% off the Tory vote if they stand, they also take 2% off the Labour vote and 2% off the LDs vote too.
In any case they will only not stand if Boris commits to No Deal and abandons the Withdrawal Agreement completely (even minus the backstop) which Boris won't do, he will only go No Deal as a last resort to ensure Brexit
Anecdotally from speaking to people at work in leave voting, working class, County Durham, the prevailing view is that they just want Brexit out of the way. They are sick of it.
They don't think anything will change. They just wan't people to shut up about it.
If their lives get worse or more inconvenient in any way, I think the Tories are in for a hell of a shock.
I'm not claiming to know anything about the North West.
I do, I live here.
But there's more swing seats in the North West than the North East so why are you assuming the strategy will fail?
Is there polling or electoral evidence of a waterfall of Labour seats turning blue in the NW?
2010 and 2015.
There are a lot of swing seats here. If the Tories are to gain a majority back then it will be via winning votes here and in the Midlands, not where you're based.
Things are rather different now than in 2015 don't you think? What seats specifically do you see going Blue?
I'd be surprised if these don't flip: Crewe and Nantwich Barrow and Furness Warrington South
Potentially also: Blackpool South Weaver Vale
That's without counting the Midlands or anywhere else. More chances there than the North East I imagine.
So that makes up for the losses in Scotland (assuming the Tories lose 6 seats and not the 9 I suspect they will). Boris is going to have to win a lot of seats in the <idlands.
Yes but Johnson's window for victory is small. After no deal the time between a Johnson landslide and a Corbyn majority could be very tight if things start to get messy.
Depends how messy.
If its a temporary blip that is overcome then like the Fuel Protests of 2000 which saw Hague poll leads in the polls prior to the Blair landslide of 2001 I think it will be much ado about nothing.
Weren't the fuel protests dealt with by giving in to the protesters? Who does the government give in to to resolve the No Deal chaos?
No need to give in. If there's temporary disruption but the disruption is resolved then there's likely to be little proper change in voting. Especially since a little disruption won't be a shock.
In any case they will only not stand if Boris commits to No Deal and abandons the Withdrawal Agreement completely (even minus the backstop) which Boris won't do, he will only go No Deal as a last resort to ensure Brexit
Well the remainers have lowered expectations for a no deal scenario so much that chances are expectation will be positive.
Indeed.
Success = Reality minus Expectations.
Remainers have done a fantastic job at lowering expectations. If the country still has insulin and airplanes by Christmas that is going to exceed some people's expectations it seems.
Fair point, well made. However. Leavers also have to contend with the fact that there is a large group of people who expect to have no foreign languages spoken, a massive increase in benefits, a step change in the NHS provision, lower crime, lower prices, any and all of their particular hobby horses solved, and of course, a change to the handball rule all by Christmas as well. There are a large group of Leavers with sky high expectations of what leaving will achieve. And, a great many of them expect it instantly.
Mr Rees-Mogg, who went to Balmoral to gain the Queen's approval for the dramatic suspension last week, lays down the gauntlet as an exclusive Mail on Sunday poll predicts Mr Johnson would win a majority of 28 seats in an Election – rising to 84 if Nigel Farage's Brexit Party stands aside.
35% - Tory 24% - Labour 18% - Lib Dem 14% - Brexit
Interesting on that poll while the Brexit Party take 6% off the Tory vote if they stand, they also take 2% off the Labour vote and 2% off the LDs vote too.
In any case they will only not stand if Boris commits to No Deal and abandons the Withdrawal Agreement completely (even minus the backstop) which Boris won't do, he will only go No Deal as a last resort to ensure Brexit
That's not necessarily true. If Brexit voters choose to abstain, then that would result in everyone else seeing their shares rise.
I'm not claiming to know anything about the North West.
I do, I live here.
But there's more swing seats in the North West than the North East so why are you assuming the strategy will fail?
Is there polling or electoral evidence of a waterfall of Labour seats turning blue in the NW?
2010 and 2015.
There are a lot of swing seats here. If the Tories are to gain a majority back then it will be via winning votes here and in the Midlands, not where you're based.
Things are rather different now than in 2015 don't you think? What seats specifically do you see going Blue?
I'd be surprised if these don't flip: Crewe and Nantwich Barrow and Furness Warrington South
Potentially also: Blackpool South Weaver Vale
That's without counting the Midlands or anywhere else. More chances there than the North East I imagine.
So that makes up for the losses in Scotland (assuming the Tories lose 6 seats and not the 9 I suspect they will). Boris is going to have to win a lot of seats in the
There's 11 seats in the Midlands requiring a swing under 5% [and more in the NW that would fall with that] and that's without counting Yorkshire or other regions either.
The Tories could win the Midlands and NW marginals alone, lose every single Scottish seat and still end up with a majority.
Anecdotally from speaking to people at work in leave voting, working class, County Durham, the prevailing view is that they just want Brexit out of the way. They are sick of it.
They don't think anything will change. They just wan't people to shut up about it.
If their lives get worse or more inconvenient in any way, I think the Tories are in for a hell of a shock.
The Tories won't win the North, Labour still leads the Tories there in the latest Yougov but given the Tories lead Labour in the Midlands and Wales, the South, London and Scotland in the same poll they do not need to
Anecdotally from speaking to people at work in leave voting, working class, County Durham, the prevailing view is that they just want Brexit out of the way. They are sick of it.
They don't think anything will change. They just wan't people to shut up about it.
If their lives get worse or more inconvenient in any way, I think the Tories are in for a hell of a shock.
That chimes with mine from a similar area. However, as I said below, there is a subset who really do expect all their wishes to instantly be granted. Those are the really worrisome ones.
Anecdotally from speaking to people at work in leave voting, working class, County Durham, the prevailing view is that they just want Brexit out of the way. They are sick of it.
They don't think anything will change. They just wan't people to shut up about it.
If their lives get worse or more inconvenient in any way, I think the Tories are in for a hell of a shock.
I think its the prevailing view of most of the country. Rightly or wrongly I think most people think that the decision was made 3.5 years ago, we've debated it long enough, time to JFDI.
I think if the opposition forces a six month extension for navel gazing with no alternative plan then it will not go down well.
I'm not claiming to know anything about the North West.
I do, I live here.
But there's more swing seats in the North West than the North East so why are you assuming the strategy will fail?
Is there polling or electoral evidence of a waterfall of Labour seats turning blue in the NW?
2010 and 2015.
There are a lot of swing seats here. If the Tories are to gain a majority back then it will be via winning votes here and in the Midlands, not where you're based.
Things are rather different now than in 2015 don't you think? What seats specifically do you see going Blue?
I'd be surprised if these don't flip: Crewe and Nantwich Barrow and Furness Warrington South
Potentially also: Blackpool South Weaver Vale
That's without counting the Midlands or anywhere else. More chances there than the North East I imagine.
So that makes up for the losses in Scotland (assuming the Tories lose 6 seats and not the 9 I suspect they will). Boris is going to have to win a lot of seats in the
There's 11 seats in the Midlands requiring a swing under 5% [and more in the NW that would fall with that] and that's without counting Yorkshire or other regions either.
The Tories could win the Midlands and NW marginals alone, lose every single Scottish seat and still end up with a majority.
You’re forgetting places like Putny, Hastings, Richmond Park even Rees Mogg’s seat could easily go the other way.
I could see Berwick going Lib Dem again too although this is a long shot.
Well the remainers have lowered expectations for a no deal scenario so much that chances are expectation will be positive.
Indeed.
Success = Reality minus Expectations.
Remainers have done a fantastic job at lowering expectations. If the country still has insulin and airplanes by Christmas that is going to exceed some people's expectations it seems.
This is a country where there were 999 calls because KFC didn't get deliveries even after it was the 2nd item on the news.
By how many people?
There are cranks and crazies of all varieties and I suspect that anyone that moronic doesn't vote anyway.
I'm not claiming to know anything about the North West.
I do, I live here.
But there's more swing seats in the North West than the North East so why are you assuming the strategy will fail?
Is there polling or electoral evidence of a waterfall of Labour seats turning blue in the NW?
2010 and 2015.
There are a lot of swing seats here. If the Tories are to gain a majority back then it will be via winning votes here and in the Midlands, not where you're based.
That is true. Although, these were the very areas where it was expected last time. The Tory performance in the NW compared with expectations, in 2017, though, was dire. As was Yorkshire and Wales. Certainly in seat terms. Midlands less so.
Absolutely it was. Which means if the next campaign is not a complete and utter balls up like last time there's plenty of scope for recovery in seat terms.
A number of the seats I named were Tory 2010-2017 and regaining them should be a target.
Anecdotally from speaking to people at work in leave voting, working class, County Durham, the prevailing view is that they just want Brexit out of the way. They are sick of it.
They don't think anything will change. They just wan't people to shut up about it.
If their lives get worse or more inconvenient in any way, I think the Tories are in for a hell of a shock.
The Tories won't win the North, Labour still leads the Tories there in the latest Yougov but given the Tories lead Labour in the Midlands and Wales, the South, London and Scotland in the same poll they do not need to
That has literally no relevance. I’m talking about a hypothetical no deal situation.
I'm not claiming to know anything about the North West.
I do, I live here.
But there's more swing seats in the North West than the North East so why are you assuming the strategy will fail?
Is there polling or electoral evidence of a waterfall of Labour seats turning blue in the NW?
2010 and 2015.
There are a lot of swing seats here. If the Tories are to gain a majority back then it will be via winning votes here and in the Midlands, not where you're based.
Things are rather different now than in 2015 don't you think? What seats specifically do you see going Blue?
I'd be surprised if these don't flip: Crewe and Nantwich Barrow and Furness Warrington South
Potentially also: Blackpool South Weaver Vale
That's without counting the Midlands or anywhere else. More chances there than the North East I imagine.
So that makes up for the losses in Scotland (assuming the Tories lose 6 seats and not the 9 I suspect they will). Boris is going to have to win a lot of seats in the
There's 11 seats in the Midlands requiring a swing under 5% [and more in the NW that would fall with that] and that's without counting Yorkshire or other regions either.
The Tories could win the Midlands and NW marginals alone, lose every single Scottish seat and still end up with a majority.
You’re forgetting places like Putny, Hastings, Richmond Park even Rees Mogg’s seat could easily go the other way.
I could see Berwick going Lib Dem again too although this is a long shot.
I'm forgetting nothing, there's a lot of ifs and maybes. A lot of seats that I'd expect to change hands either way long before seats like City of Durham become remotely relevant.
I'm not claiming to know anything about the North West.
I do, I live here.
But there's more swing seats in the North West than the North East so why are you assuming the strategy will fail?
Is there polling or electoral evidence of a waterfall of Labour seats turning blue in the NW?
2010 and 2015.
There are a lot of swing seats here. If the Tories are to gain a majority back then it will be via winning votes here and in the Midlands, not where you're based.
Things are rather different now than in 2015 don't you think? What seats specifically do you see going Blue?
I'd be surprised if these don't flip: Crewe and Nantwich Barrow and Furness Warrington South
Potentially also: Blackpool South Weaver Vale
That's without counting the Midlands or anywhere else. More chances there than the North East I imagine.
So that makes up for the losses in Scotland (assuming the Tories lose 6 seats and not the 9 I suspect they will). Boris is going to have to win a lot of seats in the
There's 11 seats in the Midlands requiring a swing under 5% [and more in the NW that would fall with that] and that's without counting Yorkshire or other regions either.
The Tories could win the Midlands and NW marginals alone, lose every single Scottish seat and still end up with a majority.
They could indeed. But that pre supposes no surprises in the South. Marginals are not what they were.
Anecdotally from speaking to people at work in leave voting, working class, County Durham, the prevailing view is that they just want Brexit out of the way. They are sick of it.
They don't think anything will change. They just wan't people to shut up about it.
If their lives get worse or more inconvenient in any way, I think the Tories are in for a hell of a shock.
I think its the prevailing view of most of the country. Rightly or wrongly I think most people think that the decision was made 3.5 years ago, we've debated it long enough, time to JFDI.
I think if the opposition forces a six month extension for navel gazing with no alternative plan then it will not go down well.
I'm not so sure. No Deal means 10-30 years of continual negotiations over absolutely everything - once you tell people that, another six months an agreed deal and a organised exit really doesn't seem anywhere near as bad.
I'm not claiming to know anything about the North West.
I do, I live here.
But there's more swing seats in the North West than the North East so why are you assuming the strategy will fail?
Is there polling or electoral evidence of a waterfall of Labour seats turning blue in the NW?
2010 and 2015.
There are a lot of swing seats here. If the Tories are to gain a majority back then it will be via winning votes here and in the Midlands, not where you're based.
Things are rather different now than in 2015 don't you think? What seats specifically do you see going Blue?
I'd be surprised if these don't flip: Crewe and Nantwich Barrow and Furness Warrington South
Potentially also: Blackpool South Weaver Vale
That's without counting the Midlands or anywhere else. More chances there than the North East I imagine.
So that makes up for the losses in Scotland (assuming the Tories lose 6 seats and not the 9 I suspect they will). Boris is going to have to win a lot of seats in the
There's 11 seats in the Midlands requiring a swing under 5% [and more in the NW that would fall with that] and that's without counting Yorkshire or other regions either.
The Tories could win the Midlands and NW marginals alone, lose every single Scottish seat and still end up with a majority.
You’re forgetting places like Putny, Hastings, Richmond Park even Rees Mogg’s seat could easily go the other way.
I could see Berwick going Lib Dem again too although this is a long shot.
I'm forgetting nothing, there's a lot of ifs and maybes. A lot of seats that I'd expect to change hands either way long before seats like City of Durham [which voted nearly 60% Remain btw] become remotely relevant.
I'm not claiming to know anything about the North West.
I do, I live here.
But there's more swing seats in the North West than the North East so why are you assuming the strategy will fail?
Is there polling or electoral evidence of a waterfall of Labour seats turning blue in the NW?
2010 and 2015.
There are a lot of swing seats here. If the Tories are to gain a majority back then it will be via winning votes here and in the Midlands, not where you're based.
Things are rather different now than in 2015 don't you think? What seats specifically do you see going Blue?
I'd be surprised if these don't flip: Crewe and Nantwich Barrow and Furness Warrington South
Potentially also: Blackpool South Weaver Vale
That's without counting the Midlands or anywhere else. More chances there than the North East I imagine.
So that makes up for the losses in Scotland (assuming the Tories lose 6 seats and not the 9 I suspect they will). Boris is going to have to win a lot of seats in the
There's 11 seats in the Midlands requiring a swing under 5% [and more in the NW that would fall with that] and that's without counting Yorkshire or other regions either.
The Tories could win the Midlands and NW marginals alone, lose every single Scottish seat and still end up with a majority.
You’re forgetting places like Putny, Hastings, Richmond Park even Rees Mogg’s seat could easily go the other way.
I could see Berwick going Lib Dem again too although this is a long shot.
I'm forgetting nothing, there's a lot of ifs and maybes. A lot of seats that I'd expect to change hands either way long before seats like City of Durham [which voted nearly 60% Remain btw] become remotely relevant.
Who’s talking about the City of Durham?
You were talking about the North East. You named County Durham. City of Durham is a seat within County Durham within the North East. Seemed relevant.
I'm not claiming to know anything about the North West.
I do, I live here.
But there's more swing seats in the North West than the North East so why are you assuming the strategy will fail?
Is there polling or electoral evidence of a waterfall of Labour seats turning blue in the NW?
2010 and 2015.
There are a lot of swing seats here. If the Tories are to gain a majority back then it will be via winning votes here and in the Midlands, not where you're based.
Things are rather different now than in 2015 don't you think? What seats specifically do you see going Blue?
I'd be surprised if these don't flip: Crewe and Nantwich Barrow and Furness Warrington South
Potentially also: Blackpool South Weaver Vale
That's without counting the Midlands or anywhere else. More chances there than the North East I imagine.
So that makes up for the losses in Scotland (assuming the Tories lose 6 seats and not the 9 I suspect they will). Boris is going to have to win a lot of seats in the
There's 11 seats in the Midlands requiring a swing under 5% [and more in the NW that would fall with that] and that's without counting Yorkshire or other regions either.
The Tories could win the Midlands and NW marginals alone, lose every single Scottish seat and still end up with a majority.
You’re forgetting places like Putny, Hastings, Richmond Park even Rees Mogg’s seat could easily go the other way.
I could see Berwick going Lib Dem again too although this is a long shot.
I'm forgetting nothing, there's a lot of ifs and maybes. A lot of seats that I'd expect to change hands either way long before seats like City of Durham [which voted nearly 60% Remain btw] become remotely relevant.
Who’s talking about the City of Durham?
You were talking about the North East. You named County Durham. City of Durham is a seat within County Durham within the North East. Seemed relevant.
That’s like me using Manchester Central as a counter point to your North West commentary.
Anecdotally from speaking to people at work in leave voting, working class, County Durham, the prevailing view is that they just want Brexit out of the way. They are sick of it.
They don't think anything will change. They just wan't people to shut up about it.
If their lives get worse or more inconvenient in any way, I think the Tories are in for a hell of a shock.
I think its the prevailing view of most of the country. Rightly or wrongly I think most people think that the decision was made 3.5 years ago, we've debated it long enough, time to JFDI.
I think if the opposition forces a six month extension for navel gazing with no alternative plan then it will not go down well.
I'm not so sure. No Deal means 10-30 years of continual negotiations over absolutely everything - once you tell people that, another six months an agreed deal and a organised exit really doesn't seem anywhere near as bad.
Continual negotiations is a fact of life. The Swiss are in permanent continual negotiations but they don't seem as stressed as we are about whether to be in the EU or not.
I'm not claiming to know anything about the North West.
I do, I live here.
But there's more swing seats in the North West than the North East so why are you assuming the strategy will fail?
Is there polling or electoral evidence of a waterfall of Labour seats turning blue in the NW?
2010 and 2015.
There are a lot of swing seats here. If the Tories are to gain a majority back then it will be via winning votes here and in the Midlands, not where you're based.
That is true. Although, these were the very areas where it was expected last time. The Tory performance in the NW compared with expectations, in 2017, though, was dire. As was Yorkshire and Wales. Certainly in seat terms. Midlands less so.
Absolutely it was. Which means if the next campaign is not a complete and utter balls up like last time there's plenty of scope for recovery in seat terms.
A number of the seats I named were Tory 2010-2017 and regaining them should be a target.
Well yes of course. And for clarity, I firmly expect a Tory majority assuming we have left. However, the phrases poison chalice and Pyrrhic Victory, in terms of expectations, doesn't come near to covering it.
Anecdotally from speaking to people at work in leave voting, working class, County Durham, the prevailing view is that they just want Brexit out of the way. They are sick of it.
They don't think anything will change. They just wan't people to shut up about it.
If their lives get worse or more inconvenient in any way, I think the Tories are in for a hell of a shock.
I think its the prevailing view of most of the country. Rightly or wrongly I think most people think that the decision was made 3.5 years ago, we've debated it long enough, time to JFDI.
I think if the opposition forces a six month extension for navel gazing with no alternative plan then it will not go down well.
I'm not so sure. No Deal means 10-30 years of continual negotiations over absolutely everything - once you tell people that, another six months an agreed deal and a organised exit really doesn't seem anywhere near as bad.
Should Boris get his landslide pre- the effects of no deal he could future-proof his Premiership to survive even significant negative effects of no deal.
I am not sure how this might be progressed, although I am sure Mr Cummings does.
Anecdotally from speaking to people at work in leave voting, working class, County Durham, the prevailing view is that they just want Brexit out of the way. They are sick of it.
They don't think anything will change. They just wan't people to shut up about it.
If their lives get worse or more inconvenient in any way, I think the Tories are in for a hell of a shock.
The Tories won't win the North, Labour still leads the Tories there in the latest Yougov but given the Tories lead Labour in the Midlands and Wales, the South, London and Scotland in the same poll they do not need to
That has literally no relevance. I’m talking about a hypothetical no deal situation.
Which only increases the Tory vote as the Brexit Party collapse, the worst scenario for the Tories is extend again, not No Deal
Anecdotally from speaking to people at work in leave voting, working class, County Durham, the prevailing view is that they just want Brexit out of the way. They are sick of it.
They don't think anything will change. They just wan't people to shut up about it.
If their lives get worse or more inconvenient in any way, I think the Tories are in for a hell of a shock.
The Tories won't win the North, Labour still leads the Tories there in the latest Yougov but given the Tories lead Labour in the Midlands and Wales, the South, London and Scotland in the same poll they do not need to
That has literally no relevance. I’m talking about a hypothetical no deal situation.
Which only increases the Tory vote as the Brexit Party collapse, the worst scenario for the Tories is extend again, not No Deal
You have no idea what No Deal will entail. None of us do. Therefore there is no way you can say that.
Anecdotally from speaking to people at work in leave voting, working class, County Durham, the prevailing view is that they just want Brexit out of the way. They are sick of it.
They don't think anything will change. They just wan't people to shut up about it.
If their lives get worse or more inconvenient in any way, I think the Tories are in for a hell of a shock.
I think its the prevailing view of most of the country. Rightly or wrongly I think most people think that the decision was made 3.5 years ago, we've debated it long enough, time to JFDI.
I think if the opposition forces a six month extension for navel gazing with no alternative plan then it will not go down well.
I'm not so sure. No Deal means 10-30 years of continual negotiations over absolutely everything - once you tell people that, another six months an agreed deal and a organised exit really doesn't seem anywhere near as bad.
Should Boris get his landslide pre- the effects of no deal he could future-proof his Premiership to survive even significant negative effects of no deal.
I am not sure how this might be progressed, although I am sure Mr Cummings does.
Anecdotally from speaking to people at work in leave voting, working class, County Durham, the prevailing view is that they just want Brexit out of the way. They are sick of it.
They don't think anything will change. They just wan't people to shut up about it.
If their lives get worse or more inconvenient in any way, I think the Tories are in for a hell of a shock.
The Tories won't win the North, Labour still leads the Tories there in the latest Yougov but given the Tories lead Labour in the Midlands and Wales, the South, London and Scotland in the same poll they do not need to
That has literally no relevance. I’m talking about a hypothetical no deal situation.
Which only increases the Tory vote as the Brexit Party collapse, the worst scenario for the Tories is extend again, not No Deal
You have no idea what No Deal will entail. None of us do. Therefore there is no way you can say that.
It is simply wishful thinking.
I know it will entail Brexit at last unlike further extension (though I still prefer the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop)
Anecdotally from speaking to people at work in leave voting, working class, County Durham, the prevailing view is that they just want Brexit out of the way. They are sick of it.
They don't think anything will change. They just wan't people to shut up about it.
If their lives get worse or more inconvenient in any way, I think the Tories are in for a hell of a shock.
I think its the prevailing view of most of the country. Rightly or wrongly I think most people think that the decision was made 3.5 years ago, we've debated it long enough, time to JFDI.
I think if the opposition forces a six month extension for navel gazing with no alternative plan then it will not go down well.
I'm not so sure. No Deal means 10-30 years of continual negotiations over absolutely everything - once you tell people that, another six months an agreed deal and a organised exit really doesn't seem anywhere near as bad.
Should Boris get his landslide pre- the effects of no deal he could future-proof his Premiership to survive even significant negative effects of no deal.
I am not sure how this might be progressed, although I am sure Mr Cummings does.
You were talking about the North East. You named County Durham. City of Durham is a seat within County Durham within the North East. Seemed relevant.
That’s like me using Manchester Central as a counter point to your North West commentary.
Except you said and I'll paraphrase "the strategy won't work because it won't swing rock solid Labour seats where I live" and I said "let's instead look at the swing seats like in the North West and Midlands".
City of Durham with its 25.6% majority for Labour is precisely the sort of seat you seemed to be referencing, but Manchester Central isn't a counter point as while it may be in the North West it is NOT a swing seat. Its also not a swing seat won by Leave which is what I also referenced.
Across the North West if we have a genuine Brexit election [as opposed to the 2017 farce of one] the Tories will struggle more than normal in seats like Manchester Central [which makes no difference because they were going to lose that anyway] but may benefit more in seats like Crewe and Nantwich.
Labour or Lib Dems piling up votes in Manchester Central will do them no favours.
To emphasise my point, several people, unprompted, have told me at the food bank, that once we are out of the EU, Boris will be able to abolish Universal Credit and put a stop to benefit sanctions.
Anecdotally from speaking to people at work in leave voting, working class, County Durham, the prevailing view is that they just want Brexit out of the way. They are sick of it.
They don't think anything will change. They just wan't people to shut up about it.
If their lives get worse or more inconvenient in any way, I think the Tories are in for a hell of a shock.
The Tories won't win the North, Labour still leads the Tories there in the latest Yougov but given the Tories lead Labour in the Midlands and Wales, the South, London and Scotland in the same poll they do not need to
That has literally no relevance. I’m talking about a hypothetical no deal situation.
Which only increases the Tory vote as the Brexit Party collapse, the worst scenario for the Tories is extend again, not No Deal
You have no idea what No Deal will entail. None of us do. Therefore there is no way you can say that.
It is simply wishful thinking.
I know it will entail Brexit at last unlike further extension (though I still prefer the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop)
I'm not claiming to know anything about the North West.
I do, I live here.
But there's more swing seats in the North West than the North East so why are you assuming the strategy will fail?
Is there polling or electoral evidence of a waterfall of Labour seats turning blue in the NW?
2010 and 2015.
There are a lot of swing seats here. If the Tories are to gain a majority back then it will be via winning votes here and in the Midlands, not where you're based.
That is true. Although, these were the very areas where it was expected last time. The Tory performance in the NW compared with expectations, in 2017, though, was dire. As was Yorkshire and Wales. Certainly in seat terms. Midlands less so.
Absolutely it was. Which means if the next campaign is not a complete and utter balls up like last time there's plenty of scope for recovery in seat terms.
A number of the seats I named were Tory 2010-2017 and regaining them should be a target.
Well yes of course. And for clarity, I firmly expect a Tory majority assuming we have left. However, the phrases poison chalice and Pyrrhic Victory, in terms of expectations, doesn't come near to covering it.
If the Tories can win a majority and it turns out to be a pyrrhic victory, well, a majority probably ensures they can hold out the full five years even if suddenly very unpopular (the only reason they didn't last time they had one was seeking to improve upon it) in which case they will be in power in one way or another for 14 years, which is a decent length of time to be in power, and the prospect of losing, even potentially losing big, after 14 years, will hardly put them off now.
Anecdotally from speaking to people at work in leave voting, working class, County Durham, the prevailing view is that they just want Brexit out of the way. They are sick of it.
They don't think anything will change. They just wan't people to shut up about it.
If their lives get worse or more inconvenient in any way, I think the Tories are in for a hell of a shock.
The Tories won't win the North, Labour still leads the Tories there in the latest Yougov but given the Tories lead Labour in the Midlands and Wales, the South, London and Scotland in the same poll they do not need to
That has literally no relevance. I’m talking about a hypothetical no deal situation.
Which only increases the Tory vote as the Brexit Party collapse, the worst scenario for the Tories is extend again, not No Deal
You have no idea what No Deal will entail. None of us do. Therefore there is no way you can say that.
It is simply wishful thinking.
Using your logic you can't say No Deal will be bad. It is simply pessimistic thinking.
Anecdotally from speaking to people at work in leave voting, working class, County Durham, the prevailing view is that they just want Brexit out of the way. They are sick of it.
They don't think anything will change. They just wan't people to shut up about it.
If their lives get worse or more inconvenient in any way, I think the Tories are in for a hell of a shock.
The Tories won't win the North, Labour still leads the Tories there in the latest Yougov but given the Tories lead Labour in the Midlands and Wales, the South, London and Scotland in the same poll they do not need to
That has literally no relevance. I’m talking about a hypothetical no deal situation.
Which only increases the Tory vote as the Brexit Party collapse, the worst scenario for the Tories is extend again, not No Deal
I actually agree with that. I don't necessarily agree with how well the Tories will do under either, but no deal is, from a party perspective, the best option.
To emphasise my point, several people, unprompted, have told me at the food bank, that once we are out of the EU, Boris will be able to abolish Universal Credit and put a stop to benefit sanctions.
Yep - once we leave the EU everyone's unicorn will instantly become real.
It's why if people are sensible they don't want an election in 2019 whatever happens.
Tories had big leads over Labour earlier this year too, while May was leader. So long as there is no extension the Tories could maintain it this time I suppose.
You were talking about the North East. You named County Durham. City of Durham is a seat within County Durham within the North East. Seemed relevant.
That’s like me using Manchester Central as a counter point to your North West commentary.
Except you said and I'll paraphrase "the strategy won't work because it won't swing rock solid Labour seats where I live" and I said "let's instead look at the swing seats like in the North West and Midlands".
City of Durham with its 25.6% majority for Labour is precisely the sort of seat you seemed to be referencing, but Manchester Central isn't a counter point as while it may be in the North West it is NOT a swing seat. Its also not a swing seat won by Leave which is what I also referenced.
Across the North West if we have a genuine Brexit election [as opposed to the 2017 farce of one] the Tories will struggle more than normal in seats like Manchester Central [which makes no difference because they were going to lose that anyway] but may benefit more in seats like Crewe and Nantwich.
Labour or Lib Dems piling up votes in Manchester Central will do them no favours.
I’m not referencing City of Durham.
I’m talking about working class Leave seats like Gateshead, Blaydon, Jarrow, South Shields, Sunderland Central, Washington and Sunderland West, Houghton and Sunderland South, Wansbeck, Blyth Valley.
To emphasise my point, several people, unprompted, have told me at the food bank, that once we are out of the EU, Boris will be able to abolish Universal Credit and put a stop to benefit sanctions.
Why do they believe all this ? Why do the poorest support Trump ? Is it a false honour ?
I'm not claiming to know anything about the North West.
I do, I live here.
But there's more swing seats in the North West than the North East so why are you assuming the strategy will fail?
Is there polling or electoral evidence of a waterfall of Labour seats turning blue in the NW?
2010 and 2015.
There are a lot of swing seats here. If the Tories are to gain a majority back then it will be via winning votes here and in the Midlands, not where you're based.
That is true. Although, these were the very areas where it was expected last time. The Tory performance in the NW compared with expectations, in 2017, though, was dire. As was Yorkshire and Wales. Certainly in seat terms. Midlands less so.
Absolutely it was. Which means if the next campaign is not a complete and utter balls up like last time there's plenty of scope for recovery in seat terms.
A number of the seats I named were Tory 2010-2017 and regaining them should be a target.
Well yes of course. And for clarity, I firmly expect a Tory majority assuming we have left. However, the phrases poison chalice and Pyrrhic Victory, in terms of expectations, doesn't come near to covering it.
If the Tories can win a majority and it turns out to be a pyrrhic victory, well, a majority probably ensures they can hold out the full five years even if suddenly very unpopular (the only reason they didn't last time they had one was seeking to improve upon it) in which case they will be in power in one way or another for 14 years, which is a decent length of time to be in power, and the prospect of losing, even potentially losing big, after 14 years, will hardly put them off now.
No it won't. And why should it? However, I think it will be Major 92-97 on steroids. Just with the difference that Major got the highest ever vote, and Boris struggled to 35%.
Anecdotally from speaking to people at work in leave voting, working class, County Durham, the prevailing view is that they just want Brexit out of the way. They are sick of it.
They don't think anything will change. They just wan't people to shut up about it.
If their lives get worse or more inconvenient in any way, I think the Tories are in for a hell of a shock.
The Tories won't win the North, Labour still leads the Tories there in the latest Yougov but given the Tories lead Labour in the Midlands and Wales, the South, London and Scotland in the same poll they do not need to
That has literally no relevance. I’m talking about a hypothetical no deal situation.
Which only increases the Tory vote as the Brexit Party collapse, the worst scenario for the Tories is extend again, not No Deal
You have no idea what No Deal will entail. None of us do. Therefore there is no way you can say that.
It is simply wishful thinking.
Using your logic you can't say No Deal will be bad. It is simply pessimistic thinking.
Odd logic.
I didn’t say No Deal was bad. I said that if their lives got worse or more inconvenient in any way the Tories would be in for a shock as they are expecting no negative consequences.
Has anyone asked the DUP if they're in favour of a no deal Brexit? Given the narrow margins involved it would be useful to know which way they'd vote. Have they even pledged to support Johnson yet, or does he need to give them another bribe incentive first? I suspect that Cummings can't threaten to sack their MPs for voting against no deal...
To emphasise my point, several people, unprompted, have told me at the food bank, that once we are out of the EU, Boris will be able to abolish Universal Credit and put a stop to benefit sanctions.
Why do they believe all this ? Why do the poorest support Trump ? Is it a false honour ?
Simply the need to believe something. If you are 55, in poor physical and mental health, no qualifications, no skills commensurate with the modern world, no job and no prospects of one, and potentially 20 years from falling over the line for a triple lock pension, you need to believe. Otherwise, you wouldn't go on.
I'm not claiming to know anything about the North West.
I do, I live here.
But there's more swing seats in the North West than the North East so why are you assuming the strategy will fail?
Is there polling or electoral evidence of a waterfall of Labour seats turning blue in the NW?
2010 and 2015.
There are a lot of swing seats here. If the Tories are to gain a majority back then it will be via winning votes here and in the Midlands, not where you're based.
Things are rather different now than in 2015 don't you think? What seats specifically do you see going Blue?
I'd be surprised if these don't flip: Crewe and Nantwich Barrow and Furness Warrington South
Potentially also: Blackpool South Weaver Vale
That's without counting the Midlands or anywhere else. More chances there than the North East I imagine.
So that makes up for the losses in Scotland (assuming the Tories lose 6 seats and not the 9 I suspect they will). Boris is going to have to win a lot of seats in the
He could lose many in the South East and South West.
Has anyone asked the DUP if they're in favour of a no deal Brexit? Given the narrow margins involved it would be useful to know which way they'd vote. Have they even pledged to support Johnson yet, or does he need to give them another bribe incentive first? I suspect that Cummings can't threaten to sack their MPs for voting against no deal...
They do seem to have been uncharacteristically quiet in the past few months. I don't know if they have been categorical in confirming they support leaving with no deal, in the event a better deal cannot be found, but the very fact the DUP of all people, who are far from shy from making their views very well known at great volume, have at the least not been coming out and saying they will definitely oppose no deal, leads me to conclude they presumably back it.
Has anyone asked the DUP if they're in favour of a no deal Brexit? Given the narrow margins involved it would be useful to know which way they'd vote. Have they even pledged to support Johnson yet, or does he need to give them another bribe incentive first? I suspect that Cummings can't threaten to sack their MPs for voting against no deal...
The DUP support NO Deal. They were a Trump party before Trump.
To emphasise my point, several people, unprompted, have told me at the food bank, that once we are out of the EU, Boris will be able to abolish Universal Credit and put a stop to benefit sanctions.
Why do they believe all this ? Why do the poorest support Trump ? Is it a false honour ?
As the great Brexiteer hero Churchill once said - "The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter"
Anecdotally from speaking to people at work in leave voting, working class, County Durham, the prevailing view is that they just want Brexit out of the way. They are sick of it.
They don't think anything will change. They just wan't people to shut up about it.
If their lives get worse or more inconvenient in any way, I think the Tories are in for a hell of a shock.
The Tories won't win the North, Labour still leads the Tories there in the latest Yougov but given the Tories lead Labour in the Midlands and Wales, the South, London and Scotland in the same poll they do not need to
That has literally no relevance. I’m talking about a hypothetical no deal situation.
Which only increases the Tory vote as the Brexit Party collapse, the worst scenario for the Tories is extend again, not No Deal
You have no idea what No Deal will entail. None of us do. Therefore there is no way you can say that.
It is simply wishful thinking.
Wait - are you admitting it might not be the end of days?
I'm not claiming to know anything about the North West.
I do, I live here.
But there's more swing seats in the North West than the North East so why are you assuming the strategy will fail?
Is there polling or electoral evidence of a waterfall of Labour seats turning blue in the NW?
2010 and 2015.
There are a lot of swing seats here. If the Tories are to gain a majority back then it will be via winning votes here and in the Midlands, not where you're based.
Things are rather different now than in 2015 don't you think? What seats specifically do you see going Blue?
I'd be surprised if these don't flip: Crewe and Nantwich Barrow and Furness Warrington South
Potentially also: Blackpool South Weaver Vale
That's without counting the Midlands or anywhere else. More chances there than the North East I imagine.
So that makes up for the losses in Scotland (assuming the Tories lose 6 seats and not the 9 I suspect they will). Boris is going to have to win a lot of seats in the
He could lose many in the South East and South West.
To emphasise my point, several people, unprompted, have told me at the food bank, that once we are out of the EU, Boris will be able to abolish Universal Credit and put a stop to benefit sanctions.
Why do they believe all this ? Why do the poorest support Trump ? Is it a false honour ?
They don't, voters earning under $50 000 a year voted for Hillary in 2016, Trump had his biggest lead with middle income voters earning $50 to $100 000 a year, while Hillary almost tied Trump with voters earning over $100 000 a year
Continual negotiations is a fact of life. The Swiss are in permanent continual negotiations but they don't seem as stressed as we are about whether to be in the EU or not.
They have the basic arrangements fairly stably defined, which is where the UK is heading if the WA passes, but is the *goal* of some very contentious future negotiations if you start from No Deal.
However the Swiss immigration referendum had a lot in common with the Brexit one: It was premised on the idea that the EU would generously accomodate something that the anti-EU people wanted to do, and resulted in a lot of ongoing anger and frustration from the anti-immigration side when the government then failed to deliver it.
Has anyone asked the DUP if they're in favour of a no deal Brexit? Given the narrow margins involved it would be useful to know which way they'd vote. Have they even pledged to support Johnson yet, or does he need to give them another bribe incentive first? I suspect that Cummings can't threaten to sack their MPs for voting against no deal...
The DUP support NO Deal. They were a Trump party before Trump.
I can believe that. Does that mean that Arlene Foster is going to ask for another £1bn before agreeing to vote for Johnson in a VONC though? And, if so, would that £1bn need a Parliamentary bill that can be amended?
Comments
Hate is what they do.
But there's more swing seats in the North West than the North East so why are you assuming the strategy will fail?
And there are a few swing seats around here - I don't think any of them will go to the Tories though.
If its a temporary blip that is overcome then like the Fuel Protests of 2000 which saw Hague poll leads in the polls prior to the Blair landslide of 2001 I think it will be much ado about nothing.
And in a lot of areas Universal Credit is just kicking in now and is significantly reducing incomes.
There are a lot of swing seats here. If the Tories are to gain a majority back then it will be via winning votes here and in the Midlands, not where you're based.
Although I notice the (rather fit) candidate is rattled by the Brexit Party.
https://twitter.com/dehennadavison/status/1157223832597553152
I see everyone is still talking about Brexit.
So, I guess I'll go for a swim instead...
Success = Reality minus Expectations.
Remainers have done a fantastic job at lowering expectations. If the country still has insulin and airplanes by Christmas that is going to exceed some people's expectations it seems.
Sorry, and goodnight.
Midlands less so.
There are no realistic other options.
Especially of Jews.
Crewe and Nantwich
Barrow and Furness
Warrington South
Potentially also:
Blackpool South
Weaver Vale
That's without counting the Midlands or anywhere else. More chances there than the North East I imagine.
In any case they will only not stand if Boris commits to No Deal and abandons the Withdrawal Agreement completely (even minus the backstop) which Boris won't do, he will only go No Deal as a last resort to ensure Brexit
They don't think anything will change. They just wan't people to shut up about it.
If their lives get worse or more inconvenient in any way, I think the Tories are in for a hell of a shock.
However. Leavers also have to contend with the fact that there is a large group of people who expect to have no foreign languages spoken, a massive increase in benefits, a step change in the NHS provision, lower crime, lower prices, any and all of their particular hobby horses solved, and of course, a change to the handball rule all by Christmas as well.
There are a large group of Leavers with sky high expectations of what leaving will achieve.
And, a great many of them expect it instantly.
The Tories could win the Midlands and NW marginals alone, lose every single Scottish seat and still end up with a majority.
Those are the really worrisome ones.
I think its the prevailing view of most of the country. Rightly or wrongly I think most people think that the decision was made 3.5 years ago, we've debated it long enough, time to JFDI.
I think if the opposition forces a six month extension for navel gazing with no alternative plan then it will not go down well.
I could see Berwick going Lib Dem again too although this is a long shot.
There are cranks and crazies of all varieties and I suspect that anyone that moronic doesn't vote anyway.
Con 380, Lab 177, LD 37.
A number of the seats I named were Tory 2010-2017 and regaining them should be a target.
You voted Leave, so we’ll leave
Brexit on the 31st October
More money for NHS, Police and schools
What is the messaging for the opposition?
Let’s extend because we’re a bit frit.
Let’s renege on the referendum altogether
We can’t possibly leave because x, y and z
I can only see that going one way.
I am not sure how this might be progressed, although I am sure Mr Cummings does.
It is simply wishful thinking.
City of Durham with its 25.6% majority for Labour is precisely the sort of seat you seemed to be referencing, but Manchester Central isn't a counter point as while it may be in the North West it is NOT a swing seat. Its also not a swing seat won by Leave which is what I also referenced.
Across the North West if we have a genuine Brexit election [as opposed to the 2017 farce of one] the Tories will struggle more than normal in seats like Manchester Central [which makes no difference because they were going to lose that anyway] but may benefit more in seats like Crewe and Nantwich.
Labour or Lib Dems piling up votes in Manchester Central will do them no favours.
Odd logic.
It's why if people are sensible they don't want an election in 2019 whatever happens.
I’m talking about working class Leave seats like Gateshead, Blaydon, Jarrow, South Shields, Sunderland Central, Washington and Sunderland West, Houghton and Sunderland South, Wansbeck, Blyth Valley.
This is not middle class suburbia.
Otherwise, you wouldn't go on.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election
However the Swiss immigration referendum had a lot in common with the Brexit one: It was premised on the idea that the EU would generously accomodate something that the anti-EU people wanted to do, and resulted in a lot of ongoing anger and frustration from the anti-immigration side when the government then failed to deliver it.