I am beginning to think that if Boris nee Cummings frames this as a remain parliament obstructing the vote and he has no choice but to call a GE to put democracy and the people first v the HOC, the elite, HOL and the EU he could just win
He will win. This thread is an echo chamber and just doesnt get it.
Cummings WANTS an election. That has been the plan all along. Jeez....
Of course he wants an election. But he can’t get one without the cooperation of his opponents. They’re unlikely to give it
Which means Corbyn a PM for 6 months. WHICH DESTROYS CON REMAINERS AND THE LIB DEMS WHEN THE ELECTION HAPPENS IN APRIL.
Just how dense are you people?
Not at all. Boris Johnson can be trapped in office.
You just dont get it all.
If parliament is prorogued without having taken No Deal off the table or giving Johnson an election, will his strategy have failed?
I think Boris will do well in an election but I’m not convinced the vote will be efficient. They will pile up new votes in Labour seats with huge majorities but not win them.
You just have no idea! Corbyn's Labour will be eviscerated. I have seen it myself- Corbyn is "poison on the doorstep"
I think Boris will do well in an election but I’m not convinced the vote will be efficient. They will pile up new votes in Labour seats with huge majorities but not win them.
You just have no idea! Corbyn's Labour will be eviscerated. I have seen it myself- Corbyn is "poison on the doorstep"
The Cummings/Johnson strategy may work, but it depends totally on people who hate their guts doing exactly what C/J want them to do: Political opponents to grant them an election that favours them. Labour voters to switch to the Lib Dems because they don't like Brexit and accidentally voting in a Conservative instead.
I'm getting extremely fed up with ERG types talking about the government calling an election, as though the government can do such a thing anymore
I tend to give most people the benefit of the doubt and assume when they say the gov should call an election they mean call for an election, which they presume the opposition will back on the basis of looking cowardly if they don't.
Another example of the crass stupidity of our mps, All police at Downing Street are armed
It is not as if she was handcuffed and weapons drawn
Actually that's not true, not all police in Number 10 are armed, they weren't armed when I visited.
Plus when Operation Temperer was activated in 2017 the reason was to replace unarmed officers with armed soldiers and Downing Street saw their unarmed officers replaces with soldiers
Thank you and I accept your comment
However, it is still far too dramatic to say that she was escorted out by armed officers.
It depends on the personnel available at the time
The general consensus is of those who I know who have worked in Downing Street/the cabinet office is you only call on the armed officers if there's a clear and present security threat, there's always enough unarmed officers about, otherwise the whole security of Downing Street wouldn't work.
I am beginning to think that if Boris nee Cummings frames this as a remain parliament obstructing the vote and he has no choice but to call a GE to put democracy and the people first v the HOC, the elite, HOL and the EU he could just win
He will win. This thread is an echo chamber and just doesnt get it.
Cummings WANTS an election. That has been the plan all along. Jeez....
Of course the opposition MPs know Cummings is trying to goad them into an election. They also know he is desperate for that election to be BEFORE the sh1t hits the fan on October 31st.
Beyond that date he will have either opted for a deal and Farage's mob will be on the march with their pitchforks or he has opted for a chaotic No Deal exit. Once he goes past Oct 31st the prospects of a big election win become far less certain.
Trying to predict what will happen if there is an election is pointless IMHO. Maybe the Brexit Party votes will mostly go Tory and Johnson will win a massive majority and start his glorious 20 year rule. Or maybe loads of Lib Dem votes will go to Labour and Corbyn wins a majority. Or maybe aliens from the planet Zargog will invade and turn us all into cyborgs.
I am beginning to think that if Boris nee Cummings frames this as a remain parliament obstructing the vote and he has no choice but to call a GE to put democracy and the people first v the HOC, the elite, HOL and the EU he could just win
He will win. This thread is an echo chamber and just doesnt get it.
Cummings WANTS an election. That has been the plan all along. Jeez....
Of course he wants an election. But he can’t get one without the cooperation of his opponents. They’re unlikely to give it
Which means Corbyn a PM for 6 months. WHICH DESTROYS CON REMAINERS AND THE LIB DEMS WHEN THE ELECTION HAPPENS IN APRIL.
Just how dense are you people?
Not at all. Boris Johnson can be trapped in office.
You just dont get it all.
If parliament is prorogued without having taken No Deal off the table or giving Johnson an election, will his strategy have failed?
It really wont. Because someone has to govern. And if that is not the Cons then it must include Labour, with all the oppo parties in the SHORT interregnum becoming tainted by association.
Cummings WANTS to fight a Corbyn-led Party. Even better a government that includes a Corbyn-led Labour...
So Priti "Hanging" Patel's first policy is in tatters.
Good
This is a much smarter way to make changes.
Really. And how is the government going to keep out EU citizens who have been jailed for 12 months when it will no longer have access to the relevant EU databases to check this information?
I am beginning to think that if Boris nee Cummings frames this as a remain parliament obstructing the vote and he has no choice but to call a GE to put democracy and the people first v the HOC, the elite, HOL and the EU he could just win
He will win. This thread is an echo chamber and just doesnt get it.
Cummings WANTS an election. That has been the plan all along. Jeez....
Of course he wants an election. But he can’t get one without the cooperation of his opponents. They’re unlikely to give it
Which means Corbyn a PM for 6 months. WHICH DESTROYS CON REMAINERS AND THE LIB DEMS WHEN THE ELECTION HAPPENS IN APRIL.
Just how dense are you people?
Not at all. Boris Johnson can be trapped in office.
You just dont get it all.
If parliament is prorogued without having taken No Deal off the table or giving Johnson an election, will his strategy have failed?
I am beginning to think that if Boris nee Cummings frames this as a remain parliament obstructing the vote and he has no choice but to call a GE to put democracy and the people first v the HOC, the elite, HOL and the EU he could just win
He will win. This thread is an echo chamber and just doesnt get it.
Cummings WANTS an election. That has been the plan all along. Jeez....
Of course he wants an election. But he can’t get one without the cooperation of his opponents. They’re unlikely to give it
Which means Corbyn a PM for 6 months. WHICH DESTROYS CON REMAINERS AND THE LIB DEMS WHEN THE ELECTION HAPPENS IN APRIL.
Just how dense are you people?
Not at all. Boris Johnson can be trapped in office.
You just dont get it all.
If parliament is prorogued without having taken No Deal off the table or giving Johnson an election, will his strategy have failed?
No. Boris will then be in a stronger position.
When the shelves are sparse and the sheep are burning?
To be honest there are so many utterly barmy things being said and tweeted there is little doubt the whole country has gone round the bend
At least with those political geeks repetitively fighting their own unyielding corner
However, I have news for them, the vast majority are not into the detail but they are wanting this stopped. Arguing over further extensions ( which I agree with ) is not winning the public battle, as seen in the polls and is ironically strengthening Boris nee Cummings
Boris has a clear message we are out on the 31st October and that is what people want to hear and frankly they do not care too much for the consequences. I have several anecdotes along these lines
Indeed Big G - this is the reason Boris will not delay beyond 31st. Ending the uncertainty is a bigger prize than the method of leaving.
Boris would be ending one uncertainty only to replace it by an even bigger uncertainty: about the basis on which pretty much all our trade and other interactions with the world outside these islands will be done. Especially as even the legislation necessary for a No Deal exit will not have been completed by 31 October.
So to take two examples from my current project: an investigation team currently based in the UK does investigations for other EU countries and receives data from those countries to do so. It also sends people to those countries when necessary to carry out those investigations.
Post 31 October it is wholly unclear whether it can continue to operate in that way. The likelihood is not. The entity’s risk has just gone up considerably because it now has to manage those investigations in a different way at short notice - and finding skilled investigators in those EU countries is not an easy task. The likelihood is that some of the jobs currently located in London, Leeds and Scotland will need to be moved overseas. That’s just one tiny bit of one very large organisation facing uncertainty and costs and reorganisation and a likely loss of UK jobs.
It won’t mean visible chaos on day one so Brexiteers will crow about Project Fear having been overstated again. But the effects of that uncertainty will be there and will accumulate over time. It is foolish to suppose otherwise. You may think it worth it.
But let’s not pretend that any sort of uncertainty is ending on 31 October or that this will be the end of Brexit.
Very few people understand these sorts of complexities. They think manufacturing has a local supply chain. They don't work in multinational businesses with high numbers of EU employees, as I do.
I work on a lot of EU contracts and life is much more difficult and uncertain.
I am beginning to think that if Boris nee Cummings frames this as a remain parliament obstructing the vote and he has no choice but to call a GE to put democracy and the people first v the HOC, the elite, HOL and the EU he could just win
He will win. This thread is an echo chamber and just doesnt get it.
Cummings WANTS an election. That has been the plan all along. Jeez....
Of course he wants an election. But he can’t get one without the cooperation of his opponents. They’re unlikely to give it
Which means Corbyn a PM for 6 months. WHICH DESTROYS CON REMAINERS AND THE LIB DEMS WHEN THE ELECTION HAPPENS IN APRIL.
Just how dense are you people?
Not at all. Boris Johnson can be trapped in office.
Trapped? If Boris is in office then we leave 31 October.
You need to remove Boris if you want a change.
You may be about to discover your mistake on that.
Just an honest question Alastair.
Do you think a GE now would change the overall numbers and by default the deadlock
No - I suspect the SNP will pick up seats (probably 8 Tory seats), Lib Dems will pick up seats (20 or so from the Tories) and Labour may lose some to the Tories.
I don't think the numbers will change though, just some chairs...
So Priti "Hanging" Patel's first policy is in tatters.
Good
This is a much smarter way to make changes.
Really. And how is the government going to keep out EU citizens who have been jailed for 12 months when it will no longer have access to the relevant databases to check this information?
Oh... you and your facts!
We will simply wave our hands in the air and bluster. That will sort it!
I am beginning to think that if Boris nee Cummings frames this as a remain parliament obstructing the vote and he has no choice but to call a GE to put democracy and the people first v the HOC, the elite, HOL and the EU he could just win
He will win. This thread is an echo chamber and just doesnt get it.
Cummings WANTS an election. That has been the plan all along. Jeez....
Of course he wants an election. But he can’t get one without the cooperation of his opponents. They’re unlikely to give it
Which means Corbyn a PM for 6 months. WHICH DESTROYS CON REMAINERS AND THE LIB DEMS WHEN THE ELECTION HAPPENS IN APRIL.
Just how dense are you people?
Not at all. Boris Johnson can be trapped in office.
You just dont get it all.
If parliament is prorogued without having taken No Deal off the table or giving Johnson an election, will his strategy have failed?
It really wont. Because someone has to govern. And if that is not the Cons then it must include Labour, with all the oppo parties in the SHORT interregnum becoming tainted by association.
Cummings WANTS to fight a Corbyn-led Party. Even better a government that includes a Corbyn-led Labour...
I think you missed my point. If the opposition sit on their hands and collectively say, "Ok, Boris, let's see if threatening No Deal forces the EU to capitulate," what can he do?
I think Boris will do well in an election but I’m not convinced the vote will be efficient. They will pile up new votes in Labour seats with huge majorities but not win them.
What reason do you give for that?
The safest Labour seats by and large, along with the safest SNP seats are the seats where Remain piled up large majorities.
Swing seats tended to be won by Leave.
What you are effectively saying is they will pile up votes in Remain seats. Seems unlikely.
It is. I spotted that. It will be interesting to see whether a challenge will be made to those powers. Certainly any sort of Brexit - and especially a No Deal one - will be a bonanza for lawyers.
I think Boris will do well in an election but I’m not convinced the vote will be efficient. They will pile up new votes in Labour seats with huge majorities but not win them.
You just have no idea! Corbyn's Labour will be eviscerated. I have seen it myself- Corbyn is "poison on the doorstep"
I am beginning to think that if Boris nee Cummings frames this as a remain parliament obstructing the vote and he has no choice but to call a GE to put democracy and the people first v the HOC, the elite, HOL and the EU he could just win
He will win. This thread is an echo chamber and just doesnt get it.
Cummings WANTS an election. That has been the plan all along. Jeez....
Of course the opposition MPs know Cummings is trying to goad them into an election. They also know he is desperate for that election to be BEFORE the sh1t hits the fan on October 31st.
Beyond that date he will have either opted for a deal and Farage's mob will be on the march with their pitchforks or he has opted for a chaotic No Deal exit. Once he goes past Oct 31st the prospects of a big election win become far less certain.
No no no...Dont you get it?
If the oppo take control BEFORE then, then it is no longer BoJo's responsibility. If its immediately afterwards then the adverse effects will still not have been fully felt and he will still win. It Brexit is delayed then no one now is going to blame Con Leavers. They will blame Lab, Con remainers and LDs (in that order). Farage's fox has already been shot. Hence the 10-15 point lead for the Cons in the polls.
I am beginning to think that if Boris nee Cummings frames this as a remain parliament obstructing the vote and he has no choice but to call a GE to put democracy and the people first v the HOC, the elite, HOL and the EU he could just win
He will win. This thread is an echo chamber and just doesnt get it.
Cummings WANTS an election. That has been the plan all along. Jeez....
Of course he wants an election. But he can’t get one without the cooperation of his opponents. They’re unlikely to give it
Which means Corbyn a PM for 6 months. WHICH DESTROYS CON REMAINERS AND THE LIB DEMS WHEN THE ELECTION HAPPENS IN APRIL.
Just how dense are you people?
Not at all. Boris Johnson can be trapped in office.
You just dont get it all.
If parliament is prorogued without having taken No Deal off the table or giving Johnson an election, will his strategy have failed?
Another example of the crass stupidity of our mps, All police at Downing Street are armed
It is not as if she was handcuffed and weapons drawn
Actually that's not true, not all police in Number 10 are armed, they weren't armed when I visited.
Plus when Operation Temperer was activated in 2017 the reason was to replace unarmed officers with armed soldiers and Downing Street saw their unarmed officers replaces with soldiers
Thank you and I accept your comment
However, it is still far too dramatic to say that she was escorted out by armed officers.
It depends on the personnel available at the time
The general consensus is of those who I know who have worked in Downing Street/the cabinet office is you only call on the armed officers if there's a clear and present security threat, there's always enough unarmed officers about, otherwise the whole security of Downing Street wouldn't work.
I think Boris will do well in an election but I’m not convinced the vote will be efficient. They will pile up new votes in Labour seats with huge majorities but not win them.
What reason do you give for that?
The safest Labour seats by and large, along with the safest SNP seats are the seats where Remain piled up large majorities.
Swing seats tended to be won by Leave.
What you are effectively saying is they will pile up votes in Remain seats. Seems unlikely.
I think Boris will do well in an election but I’m not convinced the vote will be efficient. They will pile up new votes in Labour seats with huge majorities but not win them.
What reason do you give for that?
The safest Labour seats by and large, along with the safest SNP seats are the seats where Remain piled up large majorities.
Swing seats tended to be won by Leave.
What you are effectively saying is they will pile up votes in Remain seats. Seems unlikely.
BXP will take enough votes to ensure the Tories don't win the Leave seats they need and won't win any seats at the same time.
I am beginning to think that if Boris nee Cummings frames this as a remain parliament obstructing the vote and he has no choice but to call a GE to put democracy and the people first v the HOC, the elite, HOL and the EU he could just win
He will win. This thread is an echo chamber and just doesnt get it.
Cummings WANTS an election. That has been the plan all along. Jeez....
Of course he wants an election. But he can’t get one without the cooperation of his opponents. They’re unlikely to give it
Which means Corbyn a PM for 6 months. WHICH DESTROYS CON REMAINERS AND THE LIB DEMS WHEN THE ELECTION HAPPENS IN APRIL.
Just how dense are you people?
Not at all. Boris Johnson can be trapped in office.
You just dont get it all.
If parliament is prorogued without having taken No Deal off the table or giving Johnson an election, will his strategy have failed?
It really wont. Because someone has to govern. And if that is not the Cons then it must include Labour, with all the oppo parties in the SHORT interregnum becoming tainted by association.
Cummings WANTS to fight a Corbyn-led Party. Even better a government that includes a Corbyn-led Labour...
I think you missed my point. If the opposition sit on their hands and collectively say, "Ok, Boris, let's see if threatening No Deal forces the EU to capitulate," what can he do?
I am beginning to think that if Boris nee Cummings frames this as a remain parliament obstructing the vote and he has no choice but to call a GE to put democracy and the people first v the HOC, the elite, HOL and the EU he could just win
He will win. This thread is an echo chamber and just doesnt get it.
Cummings WANTS an election. That has been the plan all along. Jeez....
Of course he wants an election. But he can’t get one without the cooperation of his opponents. They’re unlikely to give it
Which means Corbyn a PM for 6 months. WHICH DESTROYS CON REMAINERS AND THE LIB DEMS WHEN THE ELECTION HAPPENS IN APRIL.
Just how dense are you people?
Not at all. Boris Johnson can be trapped in office.
You just dont get it all.
If parliament is prorogued without having taken No Deal off the table or giving Johnson an election, will his strategy have failed?
It really wont. Because someone has to govern. And if that is not the Cons then it must include Labour, with all the oppo parties in the SHORT interregnum becoming tainted by association.
Cummings WANTS to fight a Corbyn-led Party. Even better a government that includes a Corbyn-led Labour...
I think you missed my point. If the opposition sit on their hands and collectively say, "Ok, Boris, let's see if threatening No Deal forces the EU to capitulate," what can he do?
He can LEAVE.
He's told everyone that if the EU believe we will leave with No Deal, they will buckle. What will he do if he comes back from the European Council meeting empty handed? He's bluffing.
I am beginning to think that if Boris nee Cummings frames this as a remain parliament obstructing the vote and he has no choice but to call a GE to put democracy and the people first v the HOC, the elite, HOL and the EU he could just win
He will win. This thread is an echo chamber and just doesnt get it.
Cummings WANTS an election. That has been the plan all along. Jeez....
Of course he wants an election. But he can’t get one without the cooperation of his opponents. They’re unlikely to give it
Which means Corbyn a PM for 6 months. WHICH DESTROYS CON REMAINERS AND THE LIB DEMS WHEN THE ELECTION HAPPENS IN APRIL.
Just how dense are you people?
Not at all. Boris Johnson can be trapped in office.
You just dont get it all.
If parliament is prorogued without having taken No Deal off the table or giving Johnson an election, will his strategy have failed?
It really wont. Because someone has to govern. And if that is not the Cons then it must include Labour, with all the oppo parties in the SHORT interregnum becoming tainted by association.
Cummings WANTS to fight a Corbyn-led Party. Even better a government that includes a Corbyn-led Labour...
I think you missed my point. If the opposition sit on their hands and collectively say, "Ok, Boris, let's see if threatening No Deal forces the EU to capitulate," what can he do?
He can LEAVE.
Edit: replied too quickly and didn’t read properly. My bad.
I am beginning to think that if Boris nee Cummings frames this as a remain parliament obstructing the vote and he has no choice but to call a GE to put democracy and the people first v the HOC, the elite, HOL and the EU he could just win
He will win. This thread is an echo chamber and just doesnt get it.
Cummings WANTS an election. That has been the plan all along. Jeez....
Of course he wants an election. But he can’t get one without the cooperation of his opponents. They’re unlikely to give it
Which means Corbyn a PM for 6 months. WHICH DESTROYS CON REMAINERS AND THE LIB DEMS WHEN THE ELECTION HAPPENS IN APRIL.
Just how dense are you people?
Not at all. Boris Johnson can be trapped in office.
You just dont get it all.
If parliament is prorogued without having taken No Deal off the table or giving Johnson an election, will his strategy have failed?
It really wont. Because someone has to govern. And if that is not the Cons then it must include Labour, with all the oppo parties in the SHORT interregnum becoming tainted by association.
Cummings WANTS to fight a Corbyn-led Party. Even better a government that includes a Corbyn-led Labour...
I think you missed my point. If the opposition sit on their hands and collectively say, "Ok, Boris, let's see if threatening No Deal forces the EU to capitulate," what can he do?
I think Boris will do well in an election but I’m not convinced the vote will be efficient. They will pile up new votes in Labour seats with huge majorities but not win them.
What reason do you give for that?
The safest Labour seats by and large, along with the safest SNP seats are the seats where Remain piled up large majorities.
Swing seats tended to be won by Leave.
What you are effectively saying is they will pile up votes in Remain seats. Seems unlikely.
60% of Labour constituencies voted leave.
Yes and those 60% largely include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
The 40% largely won't include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
If Boris can win the target seats within the 60% I don't think he'll care too much if he also wins votes in other ones he wasn't targetting. What matters is the target seats.
Indeed Big G - this is the reason Boris will not delay beyond 31st. Ending the uncertainty is a bigger prize than the method of leaving.
Boris would be ending one uncertainty only to replace it by an even bigger uncertainty: about the basis on which pretty much all our trade and other interactions with the world outside these islands will be done. Especially as even the legislation necessary for a No Deal exit will not have been completed by 31 October.
So to take two examples from my current project: an investigation team currently based in the UK does investigations for other EU countries and receives data from those countries to do so. It also sends people to those countries when necessary to carry out those investigations.
Post 31 October it is wholly unclear whether it can continue to operate in that way. The likelihood is not. The entity’s risk has just gone up considerably because it now has to manage those investigations in a different way at short notice - and finding skilled investigators in those EU countries is not an easy task. The likelihood is that some of the jobs currently located in London, Leeds and Scotland will need to be moved overseas. That’s just one tiny bit of one very large organisation facing uncertainty and costs and reorganisation and a likely loss of UK jobs.
It won’t mean visible chaos on day one so Brexiteers will crow about Project Fear having been overstated again. But the effects of that uncertainty will be there and will accumulate over time. It is foolish to suppose otherwise. You may think it worth it.
But let’s not pretend that any sort of uncertainty is ending on 31 October or that this will be the end of Brexit.
Very few people understand these sorts of complexities. They think manufacturing has a local supply chain. They don't work in multinational businesses with high numbers of EU employees, as I do.
I work on a lot of EU contracts and life is much more difficult and uncertain.
I don’t blame people for not understanding these complexities. I do blame them for not listening to those who do understand these matters. And then accusing them of being fanatics when they try and point out the difficulties and ask reasonable questions about how these issues are going to be dealt with.
I think Boris will do well in an election but I’m not convinced the vote will be efficient. They will pile up new votes in Labour seats with huge majorities but not win them.
What reason do you give for that?
The safest Labour seats by and large, along with the safest SNP seats are the seats where Remain piled up large majorities.
Swing seats tended to be won by Leave.
What you are effectively saying is they will pile up votes in Remain seats. Seems unlikely.
60% of Labour constituencies voted leave.
Yes and those 60% largely include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
The 40% largely won't include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
If Boris can win the target seats within the 60% I don't think he'll care too much if he also wins votes in other ones he wasn't targetting. What matters is the target seats.
What I’m saying is that the people Boris is now appealing to, for example the Northern Working Class, live in relatively safe Labour seats. Boris can pile up new Tory votes in these places and still not win any of them.
My seat is a prime example. 57% Leave. MP is a ‘diehard Remainer’.
So Priti "Hanging" Patel's first policy is in tatters.
Good
This is a much smarter way to make changes.
Really. And how is the government going to keep out EU citizens who have been jailed for 12 months when it will no longer have access to the relevant EU databases to check this information?
How about proceeding the same way that the USA does to keep out EU citizens who have committed crimes without access to the relevant EU databases to check this information?
I think Boris will do well in an election but I’m not convinced the vote will be efficient. They will pile up new votes in Labour seats with huge majorities but not win them.
What reason do you give for that?
The safest Labour seats by and large, along with the safest SNP seats are the seats where Remain piled up large majorities.
Swing seats tended to be won by Leave.
What you are effectively saying is they will pile up votes in Remain seats. Seems unlikely.
60% of Labour constituencies voted leave.
Yes and those 60% largely include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
The 40% largely won't include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
If Boris can win the target seats within the 60% I don't think he'll care too much if he also wins votes in other ones he wasn't targetting. What matters is the target seats.
And to win those seats he needs the BXP not to stand in those seats - the opposition however needs the BXP to stand.
And he cant be removed without putting Corbyn (or a Corbyn acolyte) in charge....Which will utterly destroy Con Remainers and the LDs.
Putting aside some of the other assumptions in this, an open question that I don't know the answer to is: What does putting Corbyn in do to Con Rebels and LDs.
I *think* he would be quite scrupulous at playing the role. He's put on a proper suit, visit the Queen and accept the role without attempting to abolish her, look sensible and official when conferring with other heads of state, and if there was some kind of national incident (a shooting or a terrorist attack or whatever) read his script like a serious PM. He would likely accept the restrictions of purdah without giving Britain's nuclear deterrent to Hamas or nationalizing Tescos. This would all be very good for his ratings, which currently price in a whole lot of lunacy and terribleness.
LD targets are currently nearly all Tory-held seats, so a more respectable Corbyn would probably not be a problem for them. The question is then whether Tory Remainiacs would begrudge them for putting Corbyn in. Until this week I'd have said they would, but with Boris looking (to liberals and pro-stability conservatives) seriously dangerous even beyond the EU issue, and everything polarizing on remain-leave lines, I'm not so sure any more.
I think you missed my point. If the opposition sit on their hands and collectively say, "Ok, Boris, let's see if threatening No Deal forces the EU to capitulate," what can he do?
He can LEAVE.
But dare he? Johnson seems to be doing the darnedest to provoke others in starting an election or blocking Brexit.
What if no one grants him that election? Will he really have the nerve to Leave?
Remember, he is seeing all the information about what a mess Brexit will make. Do you think he is really the kind of politician to face up to a mess of his own making? Particularly a giantic mess?
I am beginning to think that if Boris nee Cummings frames this as a remain parliament obstructing the vote and he has no choice but to call a GE to put democracy and the people first v the HOC, the elite, HOL and the EU he could just win
He will win. This thread is an echo chamber and just doesnt get it.
Cummings WANTS an election. That has been the plan all along. Jeez....
Of course he wants an election. But he can’t get one without the cooperation of his opponents. They’re unlikely to give it
Which means Corbyn a PM for 6 months. WHICH DESTROYS CON REMAINERS AND THE LIB DEMS WHEN THE ELECTION HAPPENS IN APRIL.
Just how dense are you people?
Not at all. Boris Johnson can be trapped in office.
Trapped? If Boris is in office then we leave 31 October.
You need to remove Boris if you want a change.
You may be about to discover your mistake on that.
Just an honest question Alastair.
Do you think a GE now would change the overall numbers and by default the deadlock
No - I suspect the SNP will pick up seats (probably 8 Tory seats), Lib Dems will pick up seats (20 or so from the Tories) and Labour may lose some to the Tories.
I don't think the numbers will change though, just some chairs...
Agreed but I expect a nett loss for labour, hit hard in Scotland and possibly Wales, conservatives winning leave seats and lib dems doing very well in London and the South
I am beginning to think that if Boris nee Cummings frames this as a remain parliament obstructing the vote and he has no choice but to call a GE to put democracy and the people first v the HOC, the elite, HOL and the EU he could just win
He will win. This thread is an echo chamber and just doesnt get it.
Cummings WANTS an election. That has been the plan all along. Jeez....
Of course he wants an election. But he can’t get one without the cooperation of his opponents. They’re unlikely to give it
Which means Corbyn a PM for 6 months. WHICH DESTROYS CON REMAINERS AND THE LIB DEMS WHEN THE ELECTION HAPPENS IN APRIL.
Just how dense are you people?
Not at all. Boris Johnson can be trapped in office.
You just dont get it all.
If parliament is prorogued without having taken No Deal off the table or giving Johnson an election, will his strategy have failed?
It really wont. Because someone has to govern. And if that is not the Cons then it must include Labour, with all the oppo parties in the SHORT interregnum becoming tainted by association.
Cummings WANTS to fight a Corbyn-led Party. Even better a government that includes a Corbyn-led Labour...
I think you missed my point. If the opposition sit on their hands and collectively say, "Ok, Boris, let's see if threatening No Deal forces the EU to capitulate," what can he do?
He can LEAVE.
He's told everyone that if the EU believe we will leave with No Deal, they will buckle. What will he do if he comes back from the European Council meeting empty handed? He's bluffing.
He's not bluffing. He intends to leave. If the EU offered him a deal he would turn it down on a pretext.
I am beginning to think that if Boris nee Cummings frames this as a remain parliament obstructing the vote and he has no choice but to call a GE to put democracy and the people first v the HOC, the elite, HOL and the EU he could just win
He will win. This thread is an echo chamber and just doesnt get it.
Cummings WANTS an election. That has been the plan all along. Jeez....
Of course he wants an election. But he can’t get one without the cooperation of his opponents. They’re unlikely to give it
Which means Corbyn a PM for 6 months. WHICH DESTROYS CON REMAINERS AND THE LIB DEMS WHEN THE ELECTION HAPPENS IN APRIL.
Just how dense are you people?
Not at all. Boris Johnson can be trapped in office.
You just dont get it all.
If parliament is prorogued without having taken No Deal off the table or giving Johnson an election, will his strategy have failed?
It really wont. Because someone has to govern. And if that is not the Cons then it must include Labour, with all the oppo parties in the SHORT interregnum becoming tainted by association.
Cummings WANTS to fight a Corbyn-led Party. Even better a government that includes a Corbyn-led Labour...
I think you missed my point. If the opposition sit on their hands and collectively say, "Ok, Boris, let's see if threatening No Deal forces the EU to capitulate," what can he do?
He can LEAVE.
And then what?
With a majority of 1? An election shortly thereafter....
The problem for Labour is that it is now associated in the 'remain public's mind as a 'leave 'party, and in the 'leave' public's mind as a 'remain' party. Which is why Cummings wants to fight them. This is really not a 'leave/remain' partisan point but a statement of fact.
All the "red mist" and endless angry remain articles on PB from Smithson, Cyclefree, Herdson et al.....are PART of the Cummings strategy. And they dont even realise it!.
So Priti "Hanging" Patel's first policy is in tatters.
Good
This is a much smarter way to make changes.
Really. And how is the government going to keep out EU citizens who have been jailed for 12 months when it will no longer have access to the relevant EU databases to check this information?
How about proceeding the same way that the USA does to keep out EU citizens who have committed crimes without access to the relevant EU databases to check this information?
The US has relevant access to most appropriate data. I've witnessed a lot of interesting conversations while waiting in line.
I think Boris will do well in an election but I’m not convinced the vote will be efficient. They will pile up new votes in Labour seats with huge majorities but not win them.
What reason do you give for that?
The safest Labour seats by and large, along with the safest SNP seats are the seats where Remain piled up large majorities.
Swing seats tended to be won by Leave.
What you are effectively saying is they will pile up votes in Remain seats. Seems unlikely.
60% of Labour constituencies voted leave.
Yes and those 60% largely include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
The 40% largely won't include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
If Boris can win the target seats within the 60% I don't think he'll care too much if he also wins votes in other ones he wasn't targetting. What matters is the target seats.
What I’m saying is that the people Boris is now appealing to, for example the Northern Working Class, live in relatively safe Labour seats. Boris can pile up new Tory votes in these places and still not win any of them.
My seat is a prime example. 57% Leave. MP is a ‘diehard Remainer’.
Labour will easily retain it.
Do you have any evidence for that?
Your seat may be an example, but there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and similary] swing seats too. Winning votes in your seat doesn't preclude winning votes in swing seats.
In fact as has been regularly posted here before the bulk of swing seats fit within a simple type: suburban towns.
Inner cities tend to be Labour, the rural areas tend to be Tory. It is suburban towns that tend to decide who wins elections and there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and comparable] swing voters in suburban towns.
There are a lot of swing seats across the North West and Midlands.
I am beginning to think that if Boris nee Cummings frames this as a remain parliament obstructing the vote and he has no choice but to call a GE to put democracy and the people first v the HOC, the elite, HOL and the EU he could just win
He will win. This thread is an echo chamber and just doesnt get it.
Cummings WANTS an election. That has been the plan all along. Jeez....
Of course the opposition MPs know Cummings is trying to goad them into an election. They also know he is desperate for that election to be BEFORE the sh1t hits the fan on October 31st.
Beyond that date he will have either opted for a deal and Farage's mob will be on the march with their pitchforks or he has opted for a chaotic No Deal exit. Once he goes past Oct 31st the prospects of a big election win become far less certain.
No no no...Dont you get it?
If the oppo take control BEFORE then, then it is no longer BoJo's responsibility. If its immediately afterwards then the adverse effects will still not have been fully felt and he will still win. It Brexit is delayed then no one now is going to blame Con Leavers. They will blame Lab, Con remainers and LDs (in that order). Farage's fox has already been shot. Hence the 10-15 point lead for the Cons in the polls.
Remain is trapped.
Just stop telling everyone else that they don't get it and implying we are stupid. Nobody knows how this is going to pan out, w all have different views and yours have no greater validity than anyone else's.
In my opinion Cummings wants an election before Oct 31st hence his ever more desperate antics to goad parliament into doing what he wants. If parliament doesn't oblige then I think you will find that it is Cummings that is trapped as Oct 31st rolls around.
Polls taken before we know what Cummings actually does on Oct 31st are practically meaningless. Have you forgotten that May started her election campaign with a 20 point lead?
Funny, I take the opposite view, given there is no certainty that it will make the situation any less fractious or enable a resolution. It's just another diversionary and delaying tactic.
I think Boris will do well in an election but I’m not convinced the vote will be efficient. They will pile up new votes in Labour seats with huge majorities but not win them.
What reason do you give for that?
The safest Labour seats by and large, along with the safest SNP seats are the seats where Remain piled up large majorities.
Swing seats tended to be won by Leave.
What you are effectively saying is they will pile up votes in Remain seats. Seems unlikely.
60% of Labour constituencies voted leave.
Yes and those 60% largely include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
The 40% largely won't include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
If Boris can win the target seats within the 60% I don't think he'll care too much if he also wins votes in other ones he wasn't targetting. What matters is the target seats.
And to win those seats he needs the BXP not to stand in those seats - the opposition however needs the BXP to stand.
So that's the current battle for the next week
Presumably at least part of the thinking behind floating the idea of casting out anyone who votes for an extension - the idea perhaps being that BXP might not stand candidates in a great many places if they are assured the candidate is committed enough to no deal, but unless those who resist that are cast out they might stand even against all but the most committed Brexiteers, on the basis that you cannot trust them given other candidates standing for the Tories.
I am beginning to think that if Boris nee Cummings frames this as a remain parliament obstructing the vote and he has no choice but to call a GE to put democracy and the people first v the HOC, the elite, HOL and the EU he could just win
He will win. This thread is an echo chamber and just doesnt get it.
Cummings WANTS an election. That has been the plan all along. Jeez....
Of course he wants an election. But he can’t get one without the cooperation of his opponents. They’re unlikely to give it
Which means Corbyn a PM for 6 months. WHICH DESTROYS CON REMAINERS AND THE LIB DEMS WHEN THE ELECTION HAPPENS IN APRIL.
Just how dense are you people?
Not at all. Boris Johnson can be trapped in office.
Trapped? If Boris is in office then we leave 31 October.
You need to remove Boris if you want a change.
You may be about to discover your mistake on that.
Just an honest question Alastair.
Do you think a GE now would change the overall numbers and by default the deadlock
No - I suspect the SNP will pick up seats (probably 8 Tory seats), Lib Dems will pick up seats (20 or so from the Tories) and Labour may lose some to the Tories.
I don't think the numbers will change though, just some chairs...
Agreed but I expect a nett loss for labour, hit hard in Scotland and possibly Wales, conservatives winning leave seats and lib dems doing very well in London and the South
I say ignore the polls. It all feels fake to me. Boris will lose. An election campaign will show him up as the biggest clearest threat to households with his no deal brexit. As soon as the snap election is called, new leader bounce Boris, his government, Cummings grid all gets elbowed aside as all the opposition parties get their oxygen of publicity too and
1. The remain parties would be hammering threat to households and the economy of No Deal Brexit 2. Farage would be insisting Clean Break brexit is the only true brexit, Johnson’s negotiation a con trick and sell out. 3. And if you don’t like anti semitism and don’t like brexit and you clearly have labour MP feels same as you and hasn’t supported Corbyn, why exactly are you deserting that MP in droves? I expect many of them to pile more votes on.
Whatever current polls point at certainly ain’t underwritten by any Gold Standard.
I think Boris will do well in an election but I’m not convinced the vote will be efficient. They will pile up new votes in Labour seats with huge majorities but not win them.
What reason do you give for that?
The safest Labour seats by and large, along with the safest SNP seats are the seats where Remain piled up large majorities.
Swing seats tended to be won by Leave.
What you are effectively saying is they will pile up votes in Remain seats. Seems unlikely.
60% of Labour constituencies voted leave.
Yes and those 60% largely include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
The 40% largely won't include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
If Boris can win the target seats within the 60% I don't think he'll care too much if he also wins votes in other ones he wasn't targetting. What matters is the target seats.
What I’m saying is that the people Boris is now appealing to, for example the Northern Working Class, live in relatively safe Labour seats. Boris can pile up new Tory votes in these places and still not win any of them.
My seat is a prime example. 57% Leave. MP is a ‘diehard Remainer’.
Labour will easily retain it.
Do you have any evidence for that?
Your seat may be an example, but there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and similary] swing seats too. Winning votes in your seat doesn't preclude winning votes in swing seats.
In fact as has been regularly posted here before the bulk of swing seats fit within a simple type: suburban towns.
Inner cities tend to be Labour, the rural areas tend to be Tory. It is suburban towns that tend to decide who wins elections and there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and comparable] swing voters in suburban towns.
There are a lot of swing seats across the North West and Midlands.
This is Labour country. Hatred of the Tories runs deep. Brexit does not change that.
I am beginning to think that if Boris nee Cummings frames this as a remain parliament obstructing the vote and he has no choice but to call a GE to put democracy and the people first v the HOC, the elite, HOL and the EU he could just win
He will win. This thread is an echo chamber and just doesnt get it.
Cummings WANTS an election. That has been the plan all along. Jeez....
Of course he wants an election. But he can’t get one without the cooperation of his opponents. They’re unlikely to give it
Which means Corbyn a PM for 6 months. WHICH DESTROYS CON REMAINERS AND THE LIB DEMS WHEN THE ELECTION HAPPENS IN APRIL.
Just how dense are you people?
Not at all. Boris Johnson can be trapped in office.
You just dont get it all.
If parliament is prorogued without having taken No Deal off the table or giving Johnson an election, will his strategy have failed?
It really wont. Because someone has to govern. And if that is not the Cons then it must include Labour, with all the oppo parties in the SHORT interregnum becoming tainted by association.
Cummings WANTS to fight a Corbyn-led Party. Even better a government that includes a Corbyn-led Labour...
I think you missed my point. If the opposition sit on their hands and collectively say, "Ok, Boris, let's see if threatening No Deal forces the EU to capitulate," what can he do?
He can LEAVE.
He's told everyone that if the EU believe we will leave with No Deal, they will buckle. What will he do if he comes back from the European Council meeting empty handed? He's bluffing.
He's not bluffing. He intends to leave. If the EU offered him a deal he would turn it down on a pretext.
No. He would prefer a deal. But he will leave without one if necessary. There is no domestic political downside for him either way now.
That is the beauty (for him) of his post-May strategy....
I am beginning to think that if Boris nee Cummings frames this as a remain parliament obstructing the vote and he has no choice but to call a GE to put democracy and the people first v the HOC, the elite, HOL and the EU he could just win
He will win. This thread is an echo chamber and just doesnt get it.
Cummings WANTS an election. That has been the plan all along. Jeez....
Of course he wants an election. But he can’t get one without the cooperation of his opponents. They’re unlikely to give it
Which means Corbyn a PM for 6 months. WHICH DESTROYS CON REMAINERS AND THE LIB DEMS WHEN THE ELECTION HAPPENS IN APRIL.
Just how dense are you people?
Not at all. Boris Johnson can be trapped in office.
You just dont get it all.
If parliament is prorogued without having taken No Deal off the table or giving Johnson an election, will his strategy have failed?
It really wont. Because someone has to govern. And if that is not the Cons then it must include Labour, with all the oppo parties in the SHORT interregnum becoming tainted by association.
Cummings WANTS to fight a Corbyn-led Party. Even better a government that includes a Corbyn-led Labour...
I think you missed my point. If the opposition sit on their hands and collectively say, "Ok, Boris, let's see if threatening No Deal forces the EU to capitulate," what can he do?
He can LEAVE.
He's told everyone that if the EU believe we will leave with No Deal, they will buckle. What will he do if he comes back from the European Council meeting empty handed? He's bluffing.
He's not bluffing. He intends to leave. If the EU offered him a deal he would turn it down on a pretext.
No. He would prefer a deal. But he will leave without one if necessary. There is no domestic political downside for him either way now.
That is the beauty (for him) of his post-May strategy....
No downside? What is he going to do when the sheep are burning in the fields and petrol is running dry?
So Priti "Hanging" Patel's first policy is in tatters.
Good
This is a much smarter way to make changes.
Really. And how is the government going to keep out EU citizens who have been jailed for 12 months when it will no longer have access to the relevant EU databases to check this information?
How about proceeding the same way that the USA does to keep out EU citizens who have committed crimes without access to the relevant EU databases to check this information?
And the details of that procedure are?
Bear in mind that there are data sharing agreements currently in place between the EU and the USA. So a post-Brexit Britain will not be in the same position as the USA because it won’t have any data-sharing agreements in place. The EU has already said that such an agreement cannot be part of any FTA as data is not considered to be trade.
So Priti "Hanging" Patel's first policy is in tatters.
Good
This is a much smarter way to make changes.
Really. And how is the government going to keep out EU citizens who have been jailed for 12 months when it will no longer have access to the relevant EU databases to check this information?
How about proceeding the same way that the USA does to keep out EU citizens who have committed crimes without access to the relevant EU databases to check this information?
The US has relevant access to most appropriate data. I've witnessed a lot of interesting conversations while waiting in line.
The US actually relies upon self-declaration for most of it.
They ask you to declare if you have a criminal record and if you say no they don't have access to check if you're lying or not but they're counting on some who have criminal records declaring it honestly.
And if you lie, enter the USA under false pretences, then get caught committing a crime and they check the records via Interpol and find out you lied on your paperwork then that is an additional offence you can be charged with.
I am beginning to think that if Boris nee Cummings frames this as a remain parliament obstructing the vote and he has no choice but to call a GE to put democracy and the people first v the HOC, the elite, HOL and the EU he could just win
He will win. This thread is an echo chamber and just doesnt get it.
Cummings WANTS an election. That has been the plan all along. Jeez....
Of course he wants an election. But he can’t get one without the cooperation of his opponents. They’re unlikely to give it
Which means Corbyn a PM for 6 months. WHICH DESTROYS CON REMAINERS AND THE LIB DEMS WHEN THE ELECTION HAPPENS IN APRIL.
Just how dense are you people?
Not at all. Boris Johnson can be trapped in office.
You just dont get it all.
If parliament is prorogued without having taken No Deal off the table or giving Johnson an election, will his strategy have failed?
It really wont. Because someone has to govern. And if that is not the Cons then it must include Labour, with all the oppo parties in the SHORT interregnum becoming tainted by association.
Cummings WANTS to fight a Corbyn-led Party. Even better a government that includes a Corbyn-led Labour...
I think you missed my point. If the opposition sit on their hands and collectively say, "Ok, Boris, let's see if threatening No Deal forces the EU to capitulate," what can he do?
He can LEAVE.
He's told everyone that if the EU believe we will leave with No Deal, they will buckle. What will he do if he comes back from the European Council meeting empty handed? He's bluffing.
He's not bluffing. He intends to leave. If the EU offered him a deal he would turn it down on a pretext.
No. He would prefer a deal. But he will leave without one if necessary. There is no domestic political downside for him either way now.
That is the beauty (for him) of his post-May strategy....
I think Boris will do well in an election but I’m not convinced the vote will be efficient. They will pile up new votes in Labour seats with huge majorities but not win them.
What reason do you give for that?
The safest Labour seats by and large, along with the safest SNP seats are the seats where Remain piled up large majorities.
Swing seats tended to be won by Leave.
What you are effectively saying is they will pile up votes in Remain seats. Seems unlikely.
60% of Labour constituencies voted leave.
Yes and those 60% largely include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
The 40% largely won't include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
If Boris can win the target seats within the 60% I don't think he'll care too much if he also wins votes in other ones he wasn't targetting. What matters is the target seats.
What I’m saying is that the people Boris is now appealing to, for example the Northern Working Class, live in relatively safe Labour seats. Boris can pile up new Tory votes in these places and still not win any of them.
My seat is a prime example. 57% Leave. MP is a ‘diehard Remainer’.
Labour will easily retain it.
Do you have any evidence for that?
Your seat may be an example, but there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and similary] swing seats too. Winning votes in your seat doesn't preclude winning votes in swing seats.
In fact as has been regularly posted here before the bulk of swing seats fit within a simple type: suburban towns.
Inner cities tend to be Labour, the rural areas tend to be Tory. It is suburban towns that tend to decide who wins elections and there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and comparable] swing voters in suburban towns.
There are a lot of swing seats across the North West and Midlands.
This is Labour country. Hatred of the Tories runs deep. Brexit does not change that.
It might. But not by enough in most of them, given the starting position.
I think Boris will do well in an election but I’m not convinced the vote will be efficient. They will pile up new votes in Labour seats with huge majorities but not win them.
What reason do you give for that?
The safest Labour seats by and large, along with the safest SNP seats are the seats where Remain piled up large majorities.
Swing seats tended to be won by Leave.
What you are effectively saying is they will pile up votes in Remain seats. Seems unlikely.
60% of Labour constituencies voted leave.
Yes and those 60% largely include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
The 40% largely won't include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
If Boris can win the target seats within the 60% I don't think he'll care too much if he also wins votes in other ones he wasn't targetting. What matters is the target seats.
What I’m saying is that the people Boris is now appealing to, for example the Northern Working Class, live in relatively safe Labour seats. Boris can pile up new Tory votes in these places and still not win any of them.
My seat is a prime example. 57% Leave. MP is a ‘diehard Remainer’.
Labour will easily retain it.
Do you have any evidence for that?
Your seat may be an example, but there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and similary] swing seats too. Winning votes in your seat doesn't preclude winning votes in swing seats.
In fact as has been regularly posted here before the bulk of swing seats fit within a simple type: suburban towns.
Inner cities tend to be Labour, the rural areas tend to be Tory. It is suburban towns that tend to decide who wins elections and there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and comparable] swing voters in suburban towns.
There are a lot of swing seats across the North West and Midlands.
This is Labour country. Hatred of the Tories runs deep. Brexit does not change that.
My experience is that this "hatred" ( a bad and unpleasant word in politics, dont you think) has been somewhat lessened in recent years by a countervailing "hatred" of the new London metropolitan Labour Party as exemplified by Corbyn?
I think Boris will do well in an election but I’m not convinced the vote will be efficient. They will pile up new votes in Labour seats with huge majorities but not win them.
What reason do you give for that?
The safest Labour seats by and large, along with the safest SNP seats are the seats where Remain piled up large majorities.
Swing seats tended to be won by Leave.
What you are effectively saying is they will pile up votes in Remain seats. Seems unlikely.
60% of Labour constituencies voted leave.
Yes and those 60% largely include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
The 40% largely won't include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
If Boris can win the target seats within the 60% I don't think he'll care too much if he also wins votes in other ones he wasn't targetting. What matters is the target seats.
What I’m saying is that the people Boris is now appealing to, for example the Northern Working Class, live in relatively safe Labour seats. Boris can pile up new Tory votes in these places and still not win any of them.
My seat is a prime example. 57% Leave. MP is a ‘diehard Remainer’.
Labour will easily retain it.
Do you have any evidence for that?
Your seat may be an example, but there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and similary] swing seats too. Winning votes in your seat doesn't preclude winning votes in swing seats.
In fact as has been regularly posted here before the bulk of swing seats fit within a simple type: suburban towns.
Inner cities tend to be Labour, the rural areas tend to be Tory. It is suburban towns that tend to decide who wins elections and there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and comparable] swing voters in suburban towns.
There are a lot of swing seats across the North West and Midlands.
This is Labour country. Hatred of the Tories runs deep. Brexit does not change that.
Trying to predict what will happen if there is an election is pointless IMHO. Maybe the Brexit Party votes will mostly go Tory and Johnson will win a massive majority and start his glorious 20 year rule. Or maybe loads of Lib Dem votes will go to Labour and Corbyn wins a majority. Or maybe aliens from the planet Zargog will invade and turn us all into cyborgs.
Trying to predict what will happen in an election is literally the point of this site!
I am beginning to think that if Boris nee Cummings frames this as a remain parliament obstructing the vote and he has no choice but to call a GE to put democracy and the people first v the HOC, the elite, HOL and the EU he could just win
He will win. This thread is an echo chamber and just doesnt get it.
Cummings WANTS an election. That has been the plan all along. Jeez....
Of course he wants an election. But he can’t get one without the cooperation of his opponents. They’re unlikely to give it
Which means Corbyn a PM for 6 months. WHICH DESTROYS CON REMAINERS AND THE LIB DEMS WHEN THE ELECTION HAPPENS IN APRIL.
Just how dense are you people?
Not at all. Boris Johnson can be trapped in office.
You just dont get it all.
If parliament is prorogued without having taken No Deal off the table or giving Johnson an election, will his strategy have failed?
It really wont. Because someone has to govern. And if that is not the Cons then it must include Labour, with all the oppo parties in the SHORT interregnum becoming tainted by association.
Cummings WANTS to fight a Corbyn-led Party. Even better a government that includes a Corbyn-led Labour...
I think you missed my point. If the opposition sit on their hands and collectively say, "Ok, Boris, let's see if threatening No Deal forces the EU to capitulate," what can he do?
He can LEAVE.
He's told everyone that if the EU believe we will leave with No Deal, they will buckle. What will he do if he comes back from the European Council meeting empty handed? He's bluffing.
He's not bluffing. He intends to leave. If the EU offered him a deal he would turn it down on a pretext.
No. He would prefer a deal. But he will leave without one if necessary. There is no domestic political downside for him either way now.
That is the beauty (for him) of his post-May strategy....
No downside? What is he going to do when the sheep are burning in the fields and petrol is running dry?
1) any election will be before then, and anyway... 2) thus wont happen.
I look forward to continuing this exchange in the weeks after 31st Oct....
I think Boris will do well in an election but I’m not convinced the vote will be efficient. They will pile up new votes in Labour seats with huge majorities but not win them.
What reason do you give for that?
The safest Labour seats by and large, along with the safest SNP seats are the seats where Remain piled up large majorities.
Swing seats tended to be won by Leave.
What you are effectively saying is they will pile up votes in Remain seats. Seems unlikely.
60% of Labour constituencies voted leave.
Yes and those 60% largely include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
The 40% largely won't include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
If Boris can win the target seats within the 60% I don't think he'll care too much if he also wins votes in other ones he wasn't targetting. What matters is the target seats.
What I’m saying is that the people Boris is now appealing to, for example the Northern Working Class, live in relatively safe Labour seats. Boris can pile up new Tory votes in these places and still not win any of them.
My seat is a prime example. 57% Leave. MP is a ‘diehard Remainer’.
Labour will easily retain it.
Do you have any evidence for that?
Your seat may be an example, but there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and similary] swing seats too. Winning votes in your seat doesn't preclude winning votes in swing seats.
In fact as has been regularly posted here before the bulk of swing seats fit within a simple type: suburban towns.
Inner cities tend to be Labour, the rural areas tend to be Tory. It is suburban towns that tend to decide who wins elections and there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and comparable] swing voters in suburban towns.
There are a lot of swing seats across the North West and Midlands.
This is Labour country. Hatred of the Tories runs deep. Brexit does not change that.
I think Boris will do well in an election but I’m not convinced the vote will be efficient. They will pile up new votes in Labour seats with huge majorities but not win them.
What reason do you give for that?
The safest Labour seats by and large, along with the safest SNP seats are the seats where Remain piled up large majorities.
Swing seats tended to be won by Leave.
What you are effectively saying is they will pile up votes in Remain seats. Seems unlikely.
60% of Labour constituencies voted leave.
Yes and those 60% largely include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
The 40% largely won't include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
If Boris can win the target seats within the 60% I don't think he'll care too much if he also wins votes in other ones he wasn't targetting. What matters is the target seats.
What I’m saying is that the people Boris is now appealing to, for example the Northern Working Class, live in relatively safe Labour seats. Boris can pile up new Tory votes in these places and still not win any of them.
My seat is a prime example. 57% Leave. MP is a ‘diehard Remainer’.
Labour will easily retain it.
Do you have any evidence for that?
Your seat may be an example, but there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and similary] swing seats too. Winning votes in your seat doesn't preclude winning votes in swing seats.
In fact as has been regularly posted here before the bulk of swing seats fit within a simple type: suburban towns.
Inner cities tend to be Labour, the rural areas tend to be Tory. It is suburban towns that tend to decide who wins elections and there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and comparable] swing voters in suburban towns.
There are a lot of swing seats across the North West and Midlands.
This is Labour country. Hatred of the Tories runs deep. Brexit does not change that.
Which is moot. So too are many inner city highly Remain places like inner London and Liverpool.
What matters are the swing seats. Is Boris targeting swing voters in swing seats?
I think Boris will do well in an election but I’m not convinced the vote will be efficient. They will pile up new votes in Labour seats with huge majorities but not win them.
What reason do you give for that?
The safest Labour seats by and large, along with the safest SNP seats are the seats where Remain piled up large majorities.
Swing seats tended to be won by Leave.
What you are effectively saying is they will pile up votes in Remain seats. Seems unlikely.
60% of Labour constituencies voted leave.
Yes and those 60% largely include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
The 40% largely won't include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
If Boris can win the target seats within the 60% I don't think he'll care too much if he also wins votes in other ones he wasn't targetting. What matters is the target seats.
What I’m saying is that the people Boris is now appealing to, for example the Northern Working Class, live in relatively safe Labour seats. Boris can pile up new Tory votes in these places and still not win any of them.
My seat is a prime example. 57% Leave. MP is a ‘diehard Remainer’.
Labour will easily retain it.
Do you have any evidence for that?
Your seat may be an example, but there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and similary] swing seats too. Winning votes in your seat doesn't preclude winning votes in swing seats.
In fact as has been regularly posted here before the bulk of swing seats fit within a simple type: suburban towns.
Inner cities tend to be Labour, the rural areas tend to be Tory. It is suburban towns that tend to decide who wins elections and there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and comparable] swing voters in suburban towns.
There are a lot of swing seats across the North West and Midlands.
This is Labour country. Hatred of the Tories runs deep. Brexit does not change that.
My experience is that this "hatred" ( a bad and unpleasant word in politics, dont you think) has been somewhat lessened in recent years by a countervailing "hatred" of the new London metropolitan Labour Party as exemplified by Corbyn?
Just a thought...
Nope - Corbyn is liked around here as you could witness at this years (and previous years) Durham Miner's Gala.
I think Boris will do well in an election but I’m not convinced the vote will be efficient. They will pile up new votes in Labour seats with huge majorities but not win them.
What reason do you give for that?
The safest Labour seats by and large, along with the safest SNP seats are the seats where Remain piled up large majorities.
Swing seats tended to be won by Leave.
What you are effectively saying is they will pile up votes in Remain seats. Seems unlikely.
60% of Labour constituencies voted leave.
Yes and those 60% largely include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
The 40% largely won't include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
If Boris can win the target seats within the 60% I don't think he'll care too much if he also wins votes in other ones he wasn't targetting. What matters is the target seats.
What I’m saying is that the people Boris is now appealing to, for example the Northern Working Class, live in relatively safe Labour seats. Boris can pile up new Tory votes in these places and still not win any of them.
My seat is a prime example. 57% Leave. MP is a ‘diehard Remainer’.
Labour will easily retain it.
Do you have any evidence for that?
Your seat may be an example, but there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and similary] swing seats too. Winning votes in your seat doesn't preclude winning votes in swing seats.
In fact as has been regularly posted here before the bulk of swing seats fit within a simple type: suburban towns.
Inner cities tend to be Labour, the rural areas tend to be Tory. It is suburban towns that tend to decide who wins elections and there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and comparable] swing voters in suburban towns.
There are a lot of swing seats across the North West and Midlands.
This is Labour country. Hatred of the Tories runs deep. Brexit does not change that.
Labour in Scotland used to think that.
Labour in Wales used to think that.
Quite
There is nowadays considerable "hatred" for Corbyn's Labour in the NW
So Priti "Hanging" Patel's first policy is in tatters.
Good
This is a much smarter way to make changes.
Really. And how is the government going to keep out EU citizens who have been jailed for 12 months when it will no longer have access to the relevant EU databases to check this information?
How about proceeding the same way that the USA does to keep out EU citizens who have committed crimes without access to the relevant EU databases to check this information?
And the details of that procedure are?
Bear in mind that there are data sharing agreements currently in place between the EU and the USA. So a post-Brexit Britain will not be in the same position as the USA because it won’t have any data-sharing agreements in place. The EU has already said that such an agreement cannot be part of any FTA as data is not considered to be trade.
Anyway, in your own time ......
See my reply to eek.
Long story short: Ask people to declare if they have a criminal conviction of longer than 12 months.
No downside? What is he going to do when the sheep are burning in the fields and petrol is running dry?
1) any election will be before then, and anyway... 2) thus wont happen.
I look forward to continuing this exchange in the weeks after 31st Oct....
For an election to happen before October 31st it needs to be called before parliament is prorogued. If parliament is prorogued without having forced Boris to extend or given him an election, he'll be stuffed.
I am beginning to think that if Boris nee Cummings frames this as a remain parliament obstructing the vote and he has no choice but to call a GE to put democracy and the people first v the HOC, the elite, HOL and the EU he could just win
He will win. This thread is an echo chamber and just doesnt get it.
Cummings WANTS an election. That has been the plan all along. Jeez....
Of course the opposition MPs know Cummings is trying to goad them into an election. They also know he is desperate for that election to be BEFORE the sh1t hits the fan on October 31st.
Beyond that date he will have either opted for a deal and Farage's mob will be on the march with their pitchforks or he has opted for a chaotic No Deal exit. Once he goes past Oct 31st the prospects of a big election win become far less certain.
No no no...Dont you get it?
If the oppo take control BEFORE then, then it is no longer BoJo's responsibility. If its immediately afterwards then the adverse effects will still not have been fully felt and he will still win. It Brexit is delayed then no one now is going to blame Con Leavers. They will blame Lab, Con remainers and LDs (in that order). Farage's fox has already been shot. Hence the 10-15 point lead for the Cons in the polls.
Remain is trapped.
Just stop telling everyone else that they don't get it and implying we are stupid. Nobody knows how this is going to pan out, w all have different views and yours have no greater validity than anyone else's.
In my opinion Cummings wants an election before Oct 31st hence his ever more desperate antics to goad parliament into doing what he wants. If parliament doesn't oblige then I think you will find that it is Cummings that is trapped as Oct 31st rolls around.
Polls taken before we know what Cummings actually does on Oct 31st are practically meaningless. Have you forgotten that May started her election campaign with a 20 point lead?
I don’t think they want an election until after Brexit - very simple campaign if we are out.
The guys who did it vs the numb nuts who want to rejoin.
Trying to predict what will happen if there is an election is pointless IMHO. Maybe the Brexit Party votes will mostly go Tory and Johnson will win a massive majority and start his glorious 20 year rule. Or maybe loads of Lib Dem votes will go to Labour and Corbyn wins a majority. Or maybe aliens from the planet Zargog will invade and turn us all into cyborgs.
Trying to predict what will happen in an election is literally the point of this site!
Well yes, I guess!
Here's my prediction (if it's before 31s Oct): Tories win an overall majority (but not too big), Labour lose a few seats, Lib Dems win a few.
I am beginning to think that if Boris nee Cummings frames this as a remain parliament obstructing the vote and he has no choice but to call a GE to put democracy and the people first v the HOC, the elite, HOL and the EU he could just win
He will win. This thread is an echo chamber and just doesnt get it.
Cummings WANTS an election. That has been the plan all along. Jeez....
Of course he wants an election. But he can’t get one without the cooperation of his opponents. They’re unlikely to give it
Which means Corbyn a PM for 6 months. WHICH DESTROYS CON REMAINERS AND THE LIB DEMS WHEN THE ELECTION HAPPENS IN APRIL.
Just how dense are you people?
Not at all. Boris Johnson can be trapped in office.
You just dont get it all.
If parliament is prorogued without having taken No Deal off the table or giving Johnson an election, will his strategy have failed?
It really wont. Because someone has to govern. And if that is not the Cons then it must include Labour, with all the oppo parties in the SHORT interregnum becoming tainted by association.
Cummings WANTS to fight a Corbyn-led Party. Even better a government that includes a Corbyn-led Labour...
I think you missed my point. If the opposition sit on their hands and collectively say, "Ok, Boris, let's see if threatening No Deal forces the EU to capitulate," what can he do?
He can LEAVE.
He's told everyone that if the EU believe we will leave with No Deal, they will buckle. What will he do if he comes back from the European Council meeting empty handed? He's bluffing.
He's not bluffing. He intends to leave. If the EU offered him a deal he would turn it down on a pretext.
No. He would prefer a deal. But he will leave without one if necessary. There is no domestic political downside for him either way now.
That is the beauty (for him) of his post-May strategy....
No downside? What is he going to do when the sheep are burning in the fields and petrol is running dry?
Don’t forget the boiling seas and the plagues of locusts.
I am beginning to think that if Boris nee Cummings frames this as a remain parliament obstructing the vote and he has no choice but to call a GE to put democracy and the people first v the HOC, the elite, HOL and the EU he could just win
He will win. This thread is an echo chamber and just doesnt get it.
Cummings WANTS an election. That has been the plan all along. Jeez....
Of course the opposition MPs know Cummings is trying to goad them into an election. They also know he is desperate for that election to be BEFORE the sh1t hits the fan on October 31st.
Beyond that date he will have either opted for a deal and Farage's mob will be on the march with their pitchforks or he has opted for a chaotic No Deal exit. Once he goes past Oct 31st the prospects of a big election win become far less certain.
No no no...Dont you get it?
If the oppo take control BEFORE then, then it is no longer BoJo's responsibility. If its immediately afterwards then the adverse effects will still not have been fully felt and he will still win. It Brexit is delayed then no one now is going to blame Con Leavers. They will blame Lab, Con remainers and LDs (in that order). Farage's fox has already been shot. Hence the 10-15 point lead for the Cons in the polls.
Remain is trapped.
Just stop telling everyone else that they don't get it and implying we are stupid. Nobody knows how this is going to pan out, w all have different views and yours have no greater validity than anyone else's.
In my opinion Cummings wants an election before Oct 31st hence his ever more desperate antics to goad parliament into doing what he wants. If parliament doesn't oblige then I think you will find that it is Cummings that is trapped as Oct 31st rolls around.
Polls taken before we know what Cummings actually does on Oct 31st are practically meaningless. Have you forgotten that May started her election campaign with a 20 point lead?
I don’t think they want an election until after Brexit - very simple campaign if we are out.
The guys who did it vs the numb nuts who want to rejoin.
If we are out without a deal - that campaign may go rather differently than you think.
It's worth remembering that Margaret Beckett is a very possible compromise candidate if Corbyn isn't acceptable (as she is acceptable to Corbyn)..
I have money on her for exactly that reason..
There are a few in that category. Bring back Red Ed I say. The Tories are already implementing his policies anyway. Plus, I am fascinated to see what real "chaos" looks like.
I am beginning to think that if Boris nee Cummings frames this as a remain parliament obstructing the vote and he has no choice but to call a GE to put democracy and the people first v the HOC, the elite, HOL and the EU he could just win
He will win. This thread is an echo chamber and just doesnt get it.
Cummings WANTS an election. That has been the plan all along. Jeez....
Of course the opposition MPs know Cummings is trying to goad them into an election. They also know he is desperate for that election to be BEFORE the sh1t hits the fan on October 31st.
Beyond that date he will have either opted for a deal and Farage's mob will be on the march with their pitchforks or he has opted for a chaotic No Deal exit. Once he goes past Oct 31st the prospects of a big election win become far less certain.
No no no...Dont you get it?
If the oppo take control BEFORE then, then it is no longer BoJo's responsibility. If its immediately afterwards then the adverse effects will still not have been fully felt and he will still win. It Brexit is delayed then no one now is going to blame Con Leavers. They will blame Lab, Con remainers and LDs (in that order). Farage's fox has already been shot. Hence the 10-15 point lead for the Cons in the polls.
Remain is trapped.
Just stop telling everyone else that they don't get it and implying we are stupid. Nobody knows how this is going to pan out, w all have different views and yours have no greater validity than anyone else's.
In my opinion Cummings wants an election before Oct 31st hence his ever more desperate antics to goad parliament into doing what he wants. If parliament doesn't oblige then I think you will find that it is Cummings that is trapped as Oct 31st rolls around.
Polls taken before we know what Cummings actually does on Oct 31st are practically meaningless. Have you forgotten that May started her election campaign with a 20 point lead?
I don’t think they want an election until after Brexit - very simple campaign if we are out.
The guys who did it vs the numb nuts who want to rejoin.
If we are out without a deal - that campaign may go rather differently than you think.
It's worth remembering that Margaret Beckett is a very possible compromise candidate if Corbyn isn't acceptable (as she is acceptable to Corbyn)..
I have money on her for exactly that reason..
There are a few in that category. Bring back Red Ed I say. The Tories are already implementing his policies anyway. Plus, I am fascinated to see what real "chaos" looks like.
As entertaining as the last few years have been, at least we avoided the chaos of Ed Miliband.
Trying to predict what will happen if there is an election is pointless IMHO. Maybe the Brexit Party votes will mostly go Tory and Johnson will win a massive majority and start his glorious 20 year rule. Or maybe loads of Lib Dem votes will go to Labour and Corbyn wins a majority. Or maybe aliens from the planet Zargog will invade and turn us all into cyborgs.
Trying to predict what will happen in an election is literally the point of this site!
Well yes, I guess!
Here's my prediction (if it's before 31s Oct): Tories win an overall majority (but not too big), Labour lose a few seats, Lib Dems win a few.
There!
"Down with that sort of thing" as Father Ted once said.....
No downside? What is he going to do when the sheep are burning in the fields and petrol is running dry?
1) any election will be before then, and anyway... 2) thus wont happen.
I look forward to continuing this exchange in the weeks after 31st Oct....
For an election to happen before October 31st it needs to be called before parliament is prorogued. If parliament is prorogued without having forced Boris to extend or given him an election, he'll be stuffed.
No he wont. He is now indelibly associated with leave by voters.
I think Boris will do well in an election but I’m not convinced the vote will be efficient. They will pile up new votes in Labour seats with huge majorities but not win them.
What reason do you give for that?
The safest Labour seats by and large, along with the safest SNP seats are the seats where Remain piled up large majorities.
Swing seats tended to be won by Leave.
What you are effectively saying is they will pile up votes in Remain seats. Seems unlikely.
60% of Labour constituencies voted leave.
Yes and those 60% largely include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
The 40% largely won't include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
If Boris can win the target seats within the 60% I don't think he'll care too much if he also wins votes in other ones he wasn't targetting. What matters is the target seats.
What I’m saying is that the people Boris is now appealing to, for example the Northern Working Class, live in relatively safe Labour seats. Boris can pile up new Tory votes in these places and still not win any of them.
My seat is a prime example. 57% Leave. MP is a ‘diehard Remainer’.
Labour will easily retain it.
Do you have any evidence for that?
Your seat may be an example, but there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and similary] swing seats too. Winning votes in your seat doesn't preclude winning votes in swing seats.
In fact as has been regularly posted here before the bulk of swing seats fit within a simple type: suburban towns.
Inner cities tend to be Labour, the rural areas tend to be Tory. It is suburban towns that tend to decide who wins elections and there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and comparable] swing voters in suburban towns.
There are a lot of swing seats across the North West and Midlands.
This is Labour country. Hatred of the Tories runs deep. Brexit does not change that.
Which is moot. So too are many inner city highly Remain places like inner London and Liverpool.
What matters are the swing seats. Is Boris targeting swing voters in swing seats?
Swing voters and swing seats are changing their meaning. It no longer means what it used to mean.
I think Boris will do well in an election but I’m not convinced the vote will be efficient. They will pile up new votes in Labour seats with huge majorities but not win them.
What reason do you give for that?
The safest Labour seats by and large, along with the safest SNP seats are the seats where Remain piled up large majorities.
Swing seats tended to be won by Leave.
What you are effectively saying is they will pile up votes in Remain seats. Seems unlikely.
60% of Labour constituencies voted leave.
Yes and those 60% largely include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
The 40% largely won't include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
If Boris can win the target seats within the 60% I don't think he'll care too much if he also wins votes in other ones he wasn't targetting. What matters is the target seats.
What I’m saying is that the people Boris is now appealing to, for example the Northern Working Class, live in relatively safe Labour seats. Boris can pile up new Tory votes in these places and still not win any of them.
My seat is a prime example. 57% Leave. MP is a ‘diehard Remainer’.
Labour will easily retain it.
Do you have any evidence for that?
Your seat may be an example, but there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and similary] swing seats too. Winning votes in your seat doesn't preclude winning votes in swing seats.
In fact as has been regularly posted here before the bulk of swing seats fit within a simple type: suburban towns.
Inner cities tend to be Labour, the rural areas tend to be Tory. It is suburban towns that tend to decide who wins elections and there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and comparable] swing voters in suburban towns.
There are a lot of swing seats across the North West and Midlands.
This is Labour country. Hatred of the Tories runs deep. Brexit does not change that.
My experience is that this "hatred" ( a bad and unpleasant word in politics, dont you think) has been somewhat lessened in recent years by a countervailing "hatred" of the new London metropolitan Labour Party as exemplified by Corbyn?
Just a thought...
Nope - Corbyn is liked around here as you could witness at this years (and previous years) Durham Miner's Gala.
I think Boris will do well in an election but I’m not convinced the vote will be efficient. They will pile up new votes in Labour seats with huge majorities but not win them.
What reason do you give for that?
The safest Labour seats by and large, along with the safest SNP seats are the seats where Remain piled up large majorities.
Swing seats tended to be won by Leave.
What you are effectively saying is they will pile up votes in Remain seats. Seems unlikely.
60% of Labour constituencies voted leave.
Yes and those 60% largely include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
The 40% largely won't include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
If Boris can win the target seats within the 60% I don't think he'll care too much if he also wins votes in other ones he wasn't targetting. What matters is the target seats.
What I’m saying is that the people Boris is now appealing to, for example the Northern Working Class, live in relatively safe Labour seats. Boris can pile up new Tory votes in these places and still not win any of them.
My seat is a prime example. 57% Leave. MP is a ‘diehard Remainer’.
Labour will easily retain it.
Do you have any evidence for that?
Your seat may be an example, but there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and similary] swing seats too. Winning votes in your seat doesn't preclude winning votes in swing seats.
In fact as has been regularly posted here before the bulk of swing seats fit within a simple type: suburban towns.
Inner cities tend to be Labour, the rural areas tend to be Tory. It is suburban towns that tend to decide who wins elections and there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and comparable] swing voters in suburban towns.
There are a lot of swing seats across the North West and Midlands.
This is Labour country. Hatred of the Tories runs deep. Brexit does not change that.
My experience is that this "hatred" ( a bad and unpleasant word in politics, dont you think) has been somewhat lessened in recent years by a countervailing "hatred" of the new London metropolitan Labour Party as exemplified by Corbyn?
Just a thought...
Nope - Corbyn is liked around here as you could witness at this years (and previous years) Durham Miner's Gala.
That explains his high favourability ratings I guess
Comments
https://twitter.com/davidbegnaud/status/1167912378215743490?s=21
Get rid of him whilst you still have a chance..
In which case the bookies, with 30-40% odds on a Con majority,vare easy money for you.....
Beyond that date he will have either opted for a deal and Farage's mob will be on the march with their pitchforks or he has opted for a chaotic No Deal exit. Once he goes past Oct 31st the prospects of a big election win become far less certain.
Cummings WANTS to fight a Corbyn-led Party. Even better a government that includes a Corbyn-led Labour...
This may be interesting to @AlastairMeeks and @Cyclefree especially.
I work on a lot of EU contracts and life is much more difficult and uncertain.
I don't think the numbers will change though, just some chairs...
We will simply wave our hands in the air and bluster. That will sort it!
The safest Labour seats by and large, along with the safest SNP seats are the seats where Remain piled up large majorities.
Swing seats tended to be won by Leave.
What you are effectively saying is they will pile up votes in Remain seats. Seems unlikely.
So not all bad then.
If the oppo take control BEFORE then, then it is no longer BoJo's responsibility. If its immediately afterwards then the adverse effects will still not have been fully felt and he will still win. It Brexit is delayed then no one now is going to blame Con Leavers. They will blame Lab, Con remainers and LDs (in that order). Farage's fox has already been shot. Hence the 10-15 point lead for the Cons in the polls.
Remain is trapped.
Awesome.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1167918146025443328/photo/1
The 40% largely won't include the target seats Boris will be hoping to win.
If Boris can win the target seats within the 60% I don't think he'll care too much if he also wins votes in other ones he wasn't targetting. What matters is the target seats.
My seat is a prime example. 57% Leave. MP is a ‘diehard Remainer’.
Labour will easily retain it.
So that's the current battle for the next week
I *think* he would be quite scrupulous at playing the role. He's put on a proper suit, visit the Queen and accept the role without attempting to abolish her, look sensible and official when conferring with other heads of state, and if there was some kind of national incident (a shooting or a terrorist attack or whatever) read his script like a serious PM. He would likely accept the restrictions of purdah without giving Britain's nuclear deterrent to Hamas or nationalizing Tescos. This would all be very good for his ratings, which currently price in a whole lot of lunacy and terribleness.
LD targets are currently nearly all Tory-held seats, so a more respectable Corbyn would probably not be a problem for them. The question is then whether Tory Remainiacs would begrudge them for putting Corbyn in. Until this week I'd have said they would, but with Boris looking (to liberals and pro-stability conservatives) seriously dangerous even beyond the EU issue, and everything polarizing on remain-leave lines, I'm not so sure any more.
What if no one grants him that election? Will he really have the nerve to Leave?
Remember, he is seeing all the information about what a mess Brexit will make. Do you think he is really the kind of politician to face up to a mess of his own making? Particularly a giantic mess?
The problem for Labour is that it is now associated in the 'remain public's mind as a 'leave 'party, and in the 'leave' public's mind as a 'remain' party. Which is why Cummings wants to fight them. This is really not a 'leave/remain' partisan point but a statement of fact.
All the "red mist" and endless angry remain articles on PB from Smithson, Cyclefree, Herdson et al.....are PART of the Cummings strategy. And they dont even realise it!.
The civil service must furious about stuff getting done.
Your seat may be an example, but there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and similary] swing seats too. Winning votes in your seat doesn't preclude winning votes in swing seats.
In fact as has been regularly posted here before the bulk of swing seats fit within a simple type: suburban towns.
Inner cities tend to be Labour, the rural areas tend to be Tory. It is suburban towns that tend to decide who wins elections and there are plenty of Northern Working Class [and comparable] swing voters in suburban towns.
There are a lot of swing seats across the North West and Midlands.
In my opinion Cummings wants an election before Oct 31st hence his ever more desperate antics to goad parliament into doing what he wants. If parliament doesn't oblige then I think you will find that it is Cummings that is trapped as Oct 31st rolls around.
Polls taken before we know what Cummings actually does on Oct 31st are practically meaningless. Have you forgotten that May started her election campaign with a 20 point lead?
Last time Cummings worked for a government/cabinet minister within in months he turned Gove into the country's most unpopular politician.
1. The remain parties would be hammering threat to households and the economy of No Deal Brexit
2. Farage would be insisting Clean Break brexit is the only true brexit, Johnson’s negotiation a con trick and sell out.
3. And if you don’t like anti semitism and don’t like brexit and you clearly have labour MP feels same as you and hasn’t supported Corbyn, why exactly are you deserting that MP in droves? I expect many of them to pile more votes on.
Whatever current polls point at certainly ain’t underwritten by any Gold Standard.
That is the beauty (for him) of his post-May strategy....
I have money on her for exactly that reason..
Bear in mind that there are data sharing agreements currently in place between the EU and the USA. So a post-Brexit Britain will not be in the same position as the USA because it won’t have any data-sharing agreements in place. The EU has already said that such an agreement cannot be part of any FTA as data is not considered to be trade.
Anyway, in your own time ......
They ask you to declare if you have a criminal record and if you say no they don't have access to check if you're lying or not but they're counting on some who have criminal records declaring it honestly.
And if you lie, enter the USA under false pretences, then get caught committing a crime and they check the records via Interpol and find out you lied on your paperwork then that is an additional offence you can be charged with.
Good night all.
Just a thought...
Time to go.
2) thus wont happen.
I look forward to continuing this exchange in the weeks after 31st Oct....
Labour in Wales used to think that.
What matters are the swing seats. Is Boris targeting swing voters in swing seats?
Edit. Get you now. durrrr...
There is nowadays considerable "hatred" for Corbyn's Labour in the NW
Long story short: Ask people to declare if they have a criminal conviction of longer than 12 months.
The guys who did it vs the numb nuts who want to rejoin.
Here's my prediction (if it's before 31s Oct): Tories win an overall majority (but not too big), Labour lose a few seats, Lib Dems win a few.
There!
Bring back Red Ed I say. The Tories are already implementing his policies anyway.
Plus, I am fascinated to see what real "chaos" looks like.
If we remain he wins. If we leave he wins.
Oh wait