Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson Invites Himself to the Battle of Ipsus
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson Invites Himself to the Battle of Ipsus
After Alexander the Great died, his actual successors were a newborn baby and a half-brother who suffered learning difficulties. Unsurprisingly, his cadre of incredibly capable generals took real power and soon fell out, leading to the warring era of the Diadochi (Successors).
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
https://twitter.com/PhilipHammondUK/status/1167816985889165312
I thought it was a foetus, not a newborn baby?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_IV_of_Macedon
https://twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/1167820850239811584?s=20
Hammond and others understand that the Backstop is not negotiable so we already have the best deal we can get.
And also Hammond voted for the deal, and therefore to leave. Unlike some of your heroes.
It's just dumbarse MPs on both sides keep voting against it, because they're thick and don't understand it, partly because they can't read it.
Hammond, at least, did understand it and did vote for it, even though of all people he owed May no favours. So he's quite within his rights to blame everyone else for the mess we're in.
With hindsight, it's a real pity he let May stand as the unity candidate.
If the Libdems and Greens had more imagination than they do, then they should promise not to contest any such seats, and invite any elected independent remain tories to sit with them without having to join the party or take the whip.
https://twitter.com/leomiklasz/status/1167821602161135616?s=20
The parliamentarians opposing No Deal are finally all talking to each other and appear to have the resolve to face down Bozo and his band of loons.
Of course, they could still muck it up, and can we be sure that they really do have the numbers?
The birth had to be waited for, as if it had been a girl the sole successor would've been Alexander's half-brother.
To be honest, you can make a semantic case either way, but obviously I prefer my version.
Mr. Z, cheers. When I checked the word count I considered beefing it up, but I've never liked padding for the sake of it.
Mr. Briskin, no. The Diadochi took power from the legitimate kings, Philip Arrhidaeus and Alexander's son of the same name.
I wouldn't stretch the analogy that far, but if you wanted to then May would be either one of the actual successors rather than Alexander. [Likewise, Antigonus was an intelligent and capable man as were his adversaries. It was an age full of bold, ruthless, intelligent, brave leaders. In that regard, the antithesis of today].
Ah you know what I mean. The Scots will always enjoy winding up the English, and the reverse is true too.
I'm English and I enjoy winding up the French too. The problem there is that they seem incapable of responding.
The Germans are trickier to wind up., although when you manage it and they realise it then they are the most wonderful of fall-guys. If you get it wrong then it'll be tanks at dawn.
The Italians are the best of all. You just get hugged whatever you do.
As some might say, the more you tighten your grip, the more votes slip through your fingers.
Edited extra bit: thanks, Mr. D.
And then Boris comes along. And smashes up their well-crafted deception on the voters.
Grrrr.... If it hadn't been for that pesky kid....
Now Phil has to make a choice. Keep with the deception - and lose his cushy seat. Or see Boris win.
Grrr......
As an online discussion on Scottish independence grows longer, the probability that the pro-Union participants will be accused of believing Scotland to be “too wee, too poor, too stupid to be independent” approaches one.
It doesn’t matter whether you’ve said anything of the sort. You’re just accused of being dismissive of Scotland, regardless of whether you’re Scottish yourself, and therefore anything that you might have had the temerity to present as “facts” are questionable due to your motivations.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/08/ruth-davidsons-departure-doesnt-mean-the-end-of-the-union/
The Blair Institute unwittingly reveals the difficulty of defining extremism
Douglas Murray"
https://unherd.com/2019/08/the-truth-about-hate-speech/
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/riot-police-used-to-quell-protesters-in-glasgow-as-irish-unity-march-sparks-significant-disorder/ar-AAGBFhN?ocid=spartanntp
It feels like there's a little shoe-horning going on though. Draw the parallels but then don't feel constrained by them. I don't know how you might do that.
Con 32.5%
Lab 22.8%
LD 18.8%
BRX 13.5%
Greens 6.0%
SNP 4.2%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019
There may also still be time to legislate to force Boris Johnson to seek an extension, but that prompts two further questions: what sanctions can be imposed if he flat refuses to ask for one? And, even if he does, what happens next if the EU27 say no?
but given there is as yet no clarity among Team Remain, they have a lot of work to do in a short period of time.
If efforts of parliamentary remainers to block Johnson come to nothing, the EU is I think prepared to offer something better, should it become apparent that the UK will leave with no deal. It will reserve its best offer only for circumstances where Johnson had won a GE held immediately after the UK had already left. Until that point, concessions on their current "offer" would only boost Johnson's chances at the GE. I think that their ultimate contingency plan is to try and bend the rules to offer the UK the opportunity to rejoin immediately on exactly the same terms as we left should a GE result in a change of government. The EU will probably offer nothing until then for fear of boosting Johnson's chances of winning that GE, should it consider that the outcome of that GE is in the balance.
Rangers 2.44
Celtic 3.1
Draw 3.45
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/football/market/1.161785598
• Vernon Bogdanor is professor of government at King’s College London
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/29/parliament-brexit-prorogue-mps-alternative-no-deal?CMP=share_btn_tw
We get a far better deal negotiating with the main EU team, with every indication the heads of govt and EU parliament are happy to rubber stamp whatever they agree.
Scotland only voted no to independence in 2014 because a sufficient segment of public opinion was frightened that it would impact Government spending and result in cuts to public services and/or tax hikes. If Scotland were in surplus relative to the rest of the UK, in the same way as Catalonia is within Spain, there would have been a stampede for the exit door.
The British state is finished. It's simply a matter of time.
I’ll have to think about whether the various opposition factions are all facing ‘certain death’, though. Off for a walk to cllear my head.
A newly-elected Parliament might become deadlocked itself, but it is likely that it will contain a majority either to leave come-what-may or to use one mechanism or another the stay in, and even if it somehow does reach stalemate again then we'd still be no worse off than we are now.
The striking thing is that if Stewart's estimate is true, 95% of Tory MPs have fallen into line behind this suicidal policy.
Anyway, I think we will end up as a Vassal State of the EU - it's a loaded term really. And as William Glenn pointed out in the last thread, I am getting less confident that the "we" will include me in Scotland.
I fully concede that if before we have left the EU feels that the the UK leaving is inevitable and that there is little prospect of a pro-EU UK government taking over at the GE, then with that in prospect a sub-optimal offer might be dangled before Johnson before the UK had left. Even if Johnson thought that the EU might well be willing to offer more, he would be tempted to take up triumphantly a pre-election offer that would boost his majority further.
Oh, that's still being anti.
They want to force the Government to ask for an extension so that they can keep talking. I think the general idea is that...
1. So long as we keep asking for extensions and having Parliamentary debates that never reach a resolution, we don't leave the EU
2. When the Remainers get to 2022, they intend to ape the Long Parliament and simply vote to keep themselves in office for the duration. Thus, they can carry on debating Brexit forever and the country remains in the EU forever
We may have to wait until a sufficient proportion of the Commons have died of old age and been replaced by people of differing opinions in by-elections for a majority to be created for any one course of action. Perhaps in the year 2064 or something like that? Who knows?
In a completely free vote the indicative votes suggest there is a majority in parliament for leaving the EU and staying in the customs union and single market.
A govt actually wanting to leave (as opposed to Boris wanting someone else to extend for him) could either do that, or get a deal vs remain referendum through the commons if it whipped for it.
F1 pre-race ramble will be up tomorrow morning.
Nothing our politicians have done suggest they would have any chance whatsoever.
The EMA has Con 31%, Lab 24%, LD 19%, BXP 14% and Grn 6%.
I have built a detailed constituency model that uses the above shares and calculates an arithmetical swing (UNS) and a multiplicative swing and allows a mix of both so I can do sensitivity runs with different mixtures.
For tactical voting I can assume different % of Lab or LD tactical voters with different trigger points for each constituency. I use a different model for Green Party tactical voting. Again I can do sensitivity runs.
My conclusion is that tactical voting could add about 30 seats to Labour and about 10 seats to the LibDems. Green Party tactical voting could account for half of that.
Using a mix of 75% additive(UNS) and 25% multiplicative I get
Con+BXP 291
Lab 235
LD 50
SNP 51
i.e. a Labour minority government. This assumes that the Tories run on a manifesto of new Deal or No Deal and are opposed by BXP.
If Farage disbands the BXP (in return for a Tory No Deal manifesto and US Ambassador for himself?) and the 14% BXP vote splits 6% to Tories, 3% to Lab and 5% to NV then the seats become:
Con 309
Lab 232
LD 39
SNP 51
Again a Labour minority government (just).
Overall conclusion: This is currently too close to call.
38 of the 59 most populated islands in the UK; It has an average population density one-sixth that of England. Scotland’s population is extremely thinly spread.
This has an obvious implication for transport in particular. Scotland has around 22 per cent by mileage of Great Britain’s trunk roads and 18 per cent of its railway network. Rail subsidy per journey in Scotland is £6.14 compared to £1.79 in England. The Scottish government also needs to purchase and operate ferries* to serve the island populations.
*And the shipyard that builds them.....
Labours policy when May was PM was to block a deal and see if they could force a GE. Now that they screwed up at the Euros and revived the ghosts of Nick Clegg their policy is to avoid a GE at any cost as they think they will lose.
I do suggest you go large though.
Our eventual departure from the EU and a BoJo victory at the next election is going to come as a nasty shock to many here..