Above all there was never a duty to render realistic the impossible promises made in someone else’s referendum campaign. There is no “spirit of the vote”, and if some hyperventilating campaigner promised a paradise of zero regulation, fountains of cash for everyone, and trade deals with all of South America, tough.
Interesting article. But Tom Chivers is crucially wrong about one thing. We are not playing chicken with all of Europe. We are playing chicken with Ireland. An entirely different scenario.
I think some on here (and many more in Parliament) need to reflect on two scenarios:
1) We leave with no deal and the world doesn’t end. In fact, after a few weeks no one can tell the difference; or
2) You win (more likely, actually) and through one instrument or another Brexit is stopped. And then the global recession comes, and the EU goes around doing unpopular things. The county hasn’t turned pro-EU, the Remain numbers include many who are just scared because they been frightened.
You won’t currently believe scenario one is possible, but you should reflect on why some of us draw that conclusion. We can’t all be stupid. You must see the risk of option two.
Leave supporting politicians have behaved badly and failed to grasp the chance of a sensible EFTA compromise; but so has your lot and so has the EU (they’ve gone so far on NU EFTA can’t work).
Everyone has failed here, and none of us know what happens next. Don’t assume waiving the EU flag and whistling Ode to Joy will see you loved by a suddenly pro-EU majority though.
1) is completely unlikely simply because it is in the interest of the EU to make things difficult for us (heck it seems £30bn may be resting on the EU making our lives so difficult we admit defeat).
2) is a risk but to be frank the people who will complain are those that will always complain - as Boris will discover when things go wrong.
Interesting article. But Tom Chivers is crucially wrong about one thing. We are not playing chicken with all of Europe. We are playing chicken with Ireland. An entirely different scenario.
At the moment we are playing chicken with Europe, it just so happens that we are in a tug of war with Ireland being used as the rope.
Nigelb you asked me a question this morning. Apologies but I've only just seen it. Been out all.
Unfortunately I can't disclose the issue that is causing a bit of a panic re the prorogue of parliament and previous discussions on here over the last few months, as it relates to my wife's work. I suspect it isn't confidential at all, but I need to respect her concerns.
The thread header is - "The Tangled Web that has evolved"
But all we get is a remainiac rant.
It's not a tangled web at all.
The current parliamentary session has lasted 2 years (longest in hundreds of years.) With a new PM and Government there is a need for a Queen's speech so that all their fantastic policy ideas can be legislated for. The QS will be 14 Oct.
I believe the title refers to the poem by Walter Scott called Marmion, sometimes erroneously thought to be from Shakespeare.: "Oh what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive". Boris Johnson has had a lot of practice! Btw, always delighted to enlighten Leavers on matters of culture, though I am sure you would rather burn books than read them lol.
Yes I knew the title referred to the poem quote - but, as previously stated, all we get is, yet another, remainiac rant.
No it is called reasoned argument. We leave the ranting to foreigner hating swivel eyed nutters who have no understanding of proportion and believe that the EU is less democratic than Boris Johnson. People with your views could be pitied for your gross stupidity, but actually the damage that your gullibility has done to the country, and will continue to do obviate the need for us to show any pity, only contempt
Reasoned Argument - don't make me laugh.
Well, maybe it wasn't but you have to grant it was a well-worded insult.
You have yet to engage with any of its arguments, other than to throw a few random epithets - which one might construe as a rant.
Someone needs to put the headers up so fair play to this individual for keep putting their head above the parapet.
And whilst I would agree that there is a consistency in the output I think it must be pretty clear to even the most one-eyed reader that the content is little more than a rant...which is fine, but let's not pretend it is a reasoned piece of analysis.
Anecdotal but I have been surprised how many people that I have spoken to who are expressing admiration for Boris.
The perception seems to be that he is ruthless (and Ruthless, alas), clear in what he wants to achieve and getting things done after the agonising drift of May. This view has come from remainers, leavers, Tories and non Tories alike and in my limited contacts has been almost universal. It will be interesting to see the next lot of polling but people seem to like a government that actually has some idea of what it wants. I must admit it has surprised me.
Anecdotal but I have been surprised how many people that I have spoken to who are expressing admiration for Boris.
The perception seems to be that he is ruthless (and Ruthless, alas), clear in what he wants to achieve and getting things done after the agonising drift of May. This view has come from remainers, leavers, Tories and non Tories alike and in my limited contacts has been almost universal. It will be interesting to see the next lot of polling but people seem to like a government that actually has some idea of what it wants. I must admit it has surprised me.
We'll have comparisons to the rise of Hitler in no time.... oh, too late.
I have come to the conclusion that there are about 30 conservative mps who want to stop no deal, but they fear a vonc for the precise reason they are mainly from London and the South and are under serious threat from the Lib Dems. A GE now would be a wipe out for them.
Indeed labour only started panicking when the Lib Dems became a real threat to labour London seats including Corbyn, Abbott, McDonnell and Thornberry and that threat still remains
LDs plummeting since Tory Swinson started making TV appearances. Next GE is Tory No Deal or Jezza.
You do talk some crap
LDs on 23% when Tory Swinson elected now at 17%
Main reason Tory Swinson being crap? or perhaps you can provide another explanation for LDs plummeting since Tory Swinson started making TV appearances.
Must be a new definition of 'plummeting'.
LD average of thelast 5 polls before Swinson became leader = 18% LD average of the last 5 polls up to today = 17.2%
During the same period Labour's average has risen from 25.2% all the way up to, er... 23.8% Ooops!
And the answer is pretty simple: the political news has more or less squeezed the Lib Dems. That is probably now set to change, so I think their poll rating will indeed firm up a bit, especially since it seems that Cummings is an even bigger ars**le than Milne..
We will see what happens in Shetland, but elsewhere, the local results have been very solid indeed.
Wishful thinking Cicero, they are circling the drain. Shetland will be reduced majority at best to further pile on the pressure.
I don't think Swinson is solely responsible though I do think she risks alienating lab->ld switchers. I think we're more just seeing the EU election bounce fade. If so I think the LDs will suffer whenever issues other than Brexit are at the fore. To what extent this will happen in a GE is one of the big unanswered questions of the moment.
Anecdotal but I have been surprised how many people that I have spoken to who are expressing admiration for Boris.
The perception seems to be that he is ruthless (and Ruthless, alas), clear in what he wants to achieve and getting things done after the agonising drift of May. This view has come from remainers, leavers, Tories and non Tories alike and in my limited contacts has been almost universal. It will be interesting to see the next lot of polling but people seem to like a government that actually has some idea of what it wants. I must admit it has surprised me.
It's just Theresa May on fast-forward. She was seen as ruthless and decisive at first too.
Anecdotal but I have been surprised how many people that I have spoken to who are expressing admiration for Boris.
The perception seems to be that he is ruthless (and Ruthless, alas), clear in what he wants to achieve and getting things done after the agonising drift of May. This view has come from remainers, leavers, Tories and non Tories alike and in my limited contacts has been almost universal. It will be interesting to see the next lot of polling but people seem to like a government that actually has some idea of what it wants. I must admit it has surprised me.
It's just Theresa May on fast-forward. She was seen as ruthless and decisive at first too.
It's just Theresa May on fast-forward. She was seen as ruthless and decisive at first too.
I suspect he is tapping in to the fatigue affecting both sides...for most it will be a relief that the end is in sight even if the destination isn't quite what you'd like.
Anecdotal but I have been surprised how many people that I have spoken to who are expressing admiration for Boris.
The perception seems to be that he is ruthless (and Ruthless, alas), clear in what he wants to achieve and getting things done after the agonising drift of May. This view has come from remainers, leavers, Tories and non Tories alike and in my limited contacts has been almost universal. It will be interesting to see the next lot of polling but people seem to like a government that actually has some idea of what it wants. I must admit it has surprised me.
It's just Theresa May on fast-forward. She was seen as ruthless and decisive at first too.
The Donkey Derby for her replacement will be a hoot
Does Bozo have a suitable lickspittle lined up?
Someone to totally destroy the Scottish Tories.
Will be interesting to see them try to rebrand from Ruth Davidson Party to the Conservative Party. Hard to see who of the bunch that could be termed leadership material, even allowing for bias. They really are rank rotten.
Anecdotal but I have been surprised how many people that I have spoken to who are expressing admiration for Boris.
The perception seems to be that he is ruthless (and Ruthless, alas), clear in what he wants to achieve and getting things done after the agonising drift of May. This view has come from remainers, leavers, Tories and non Tories alike and in my limited contacts has been almost universal. It will be interesting to see the next lot of polling but people seem to like a government that actually has some idea of what it wants. I must admit it has surprised me.
It's just Theresa May on fast-forward. She was seen as ruthless and decisive at first too.
Theresa May was dithering from the start.
No she wasn't. She said she'd trigger Article 50 by the end of March 2017 and she did it in the face of a huge amount of opposition inside and outside parliament.
This thread, though typically beautifully fluent (by no means a given), was something of a slog to get through.
Political slant aside, I think in most cases, article writers should decide what the central thrust of their argument is, ensure that central thrust something that takes a novel or significant slant on the chosen discussion topic, flag up very clearly what that is in the opening paragraph, and use the rest of the piece to corroborate the point being made. Otherwise it just reads like a lecture from a pub bore.
Anecdotal but I have been surprised how many people that I have spoken to who are expressing admiration for Boris.
The perception seems to be that he is ruthless (and Ruthless, alas), clear in what he wants to achieve and getting things done after the agonising drift of May. This view has come from remainers, leavers, Tories and non Tories alike and in my limited contacts has been almost universal. It will be interesting to see the next lot of polling but people seem to like a government that actually has some idea of what it wants. I must admit it has surprised me.
It's just Theresa May on fast-forward. She was seen as ruthless and decisive at first too.
Theresa May was dithering from the start.
No she wasn't. She said she'd trigger Article 50 by the end of March 2017 and she did it in the face of a huge amount of opposition inside and outside parliament.
Lord knows I rarely agree with @Philip_Thompson but on this point I do. Indeed, I even said as much two months after she became Prime Minister:
Settle down at the back. All cyclefree's headers are well written and cogently argued. You may (and I do) disagree rather strongly with a lot of it but to throw your hands up and shout WALL OF TEXT doesn't do you any favours.
Here's that disagreement. Suspending standing orders, allowing the amending of unamenable motions and picking amendments for the speaker's own objects are all constitutionally more damaging and less precedented than timing a QS for political advantage. Attlee did it, Major did it, sun still rose, sun still set.
As a football analogy, the former would be Gaukeward FC allowing offsides in the first half and changing more than 3 subs. Boris FC, however, are just knocking the ball back to the keeper or holding it up at the corner flag because they are ahead on away goals. Ruthless, cynical, unsporting, universally derided by those on the receiving end, and yet wholly valid.
Anecdotal but I have been surprised how many people that I have spoken to who are expressing admiration for Boris.
The perception seems to be that he is ruthless (and Ruthless, alas), clear in what he wants to achieve and getting things done after the agonising drift of May. This view has come from remainers, leavers, Tories and non Tories alike and in my limited contacts has been almost universal. It will be interesting to see the next lot of polling but people seem to like a government that actually has some idea of what it wants. I must admit it has surprised me.
It's just Theresa May on fast-forward. She was seen as ruthless and decisive at first too.
At least Boris has actually given some reason for it. May's reputation was driven entirely by Tories getting their first erection in twenty years by squinting at her picture until it reminded them of Thatcher
I have come to the conclusion that there are about 30 conservative mps who want to stop no deal, but they fear a vonc for the precise reason they are mainly from London and the South and are under serious threat from the Lib Dems. A GE now would be a wipe out for them.
Indeed labour only started panicking when the Lib Dems became a real threat to labour London seats including Corbyn, Abbott, McDonnell and Thornberry and that threat still remains
LDs plummeting since Tory Swinson started making TV appearances. Next GE is Tory No Deal or Jezza.
You do talk some crap
LDs on 23% when Tory Swinson elected now at 17%
Main reason Tory Swinson being crap? or perhaps you can provide another explanation for LDs plummeting since Tory Swinson started making TV appearances.
Must be a new definition of 'plummeting'.
LD average of thelast 5 polls before Swinson became leader = 18% LD average of the last 5 polls up to today = 17.2%
During the same period Labour's average has risen from 25.2% all the way up to, er... 23.8% Ooops!
And the answer is pretty simple: the political news has more or less squeezed the Lib Dems. That is probably now set to change, so I think their poll rating will indeed firm up a bit, especially since it seems that Cummings is an even bigger ars**le than Milne..
We will see what happens in Shetland, but elsewhere, the local results have been very solid indeed.
Wishful thinking Cicero, they are circling the drain. Shetland will be reduced majority at best to further pile on the pressure.
I don't think Swinson is solely responsible though I do think she risks alienating lab->ld switchers. I think we're more just seeing the EU election bounce fade. If so I think the LDs will suffer whenever issues other than Brexit are at the fore. To what extent this will happen in a GE is one of the big unanswered questions of the moment.
I agree, but she has been poor since becoming leader. I never rated her before and amazed she got the job. She is just a right wing Tory in sandals.
Anyone disappointed with the quality of @Cyclefree's piece can collect their refund at the door.
Personally I think it's excellent and I marvel at her ability to gather her thoughts so quickly.
Aren’t people allowed to say they don’t like it without having to leave? Some do, some don’t, some don’t read them, same as anything else
Of course. Once, I suggest, would be enough, rather than seek to derail the whole thread with unspecified objections.
It's a good example of an excellent thread, well argued, and with which I largely disagree. What is not to like about thoughtful free speech in a free world, and what would be the point of PB without it?
Apropos of absolutely nothing but how do you guys manage to keep up with the comments here, particularly when we're in crisis mode (which is probably most of the last 3 years)?
Go away for 45 minutes and there's another full page of comments to read :-D
Anecdotal but I have been surprised how many people that I have spoken to who are expressing admiration for Boris.
The perception seems to be that he is ruthless (and Ruthless, alas), clear in what he wants to achieve and getting things done after the agonising drift of May. This view has come from remainers, leavers, Tories and non Tories alike and in my limited contacts has been almost universal. It will be interesting to see the next lot of polling but people seem to like a government that actually has some idea of what it wants. I must admit it has surprised me.
It's just Theresa May on fast-forward. She was seen as ruthless and decisive at first too.
At least Boris has actually given some reason for it. May's reputation was driven entirely by Tories getting their first erection in twenty years by squinting at her picture until it reminded them of Thatcher
Not a surprise, unfortunately. He's one of the good guys, who has been a loyal Conservative for a long time and has done a lot behind the scenes. Not long before th 2010 election, David Cameron asked him to become the Watford candidate at short notice, after the previous candidate had been prosecuted for a bizarre and very unpleasant series of attempts to harass the then LibDem MP Sal Brinton. At the time there was virtually no local association structure left. Richard very rapidly put together a crack team, quickly raised some donations (including from me), and worked very hard to win the seat. It was one of the great Conservative successes of 2010.
Unfortunately he is far too sensible for the modern Conservative Party, as he's dead against a No Deal crash out. Relations with his local association have broken down completely, as the mad ideologues have taken over. I doubt if the party will now retain Watford.
Anecdotal but I have been surprised how many people that I have spoken to who are expressing admiration for Boris.
The perception seems to be that he is ruthless (and Ruthless, alas), clear in what he wants to achieve and getting things done after the agonising drift of May. This view has come from remainers, leavers, Tories and non Tories alike and in my limited contacts has been almost universal. It will be interesting to see the next lot of polling but people seem to like a government that actually has some idea of what it wants. I must admit it has surprised me.
It's just Theresa May on fast-forward. She was seen as ruthless and decisive at first too.
Theresa May was dithering from the start.
Crush the saboteurs?
She came face to face with reality.
Boris is not allowing reality in to his world so we shall see what his next moves are.
Anecdotal but I have been surprised how many people that I have spoken to who are expressing admiration for Boris.
The perception seems to be that he is ruthless (and Ruthless, alas), clear in what he wants to achieve and getting things done after the agonising drift of May. This view has come from remainers, leavers, Tories and non Tories alike and in my limited contacts has been almost universal. It will be interesting to see the next lot of polling but people seem to like a government that actually has some idea of what it wants. I must admit it has surprised me.
It's just Theresa May on fast-forward. She was seen as ruthless and decisive at first too.
Theresa May was dithering from the start.
No she wasn't. She said she'd trigger Article 50 by the end of March 2017 and she did it in the face of a huge amount of opposition inside and outside parliament.
Lord knows I rarely agree with @Philip_Thompson but on this point I do. Indeed, I even said as much two months after she became Prime Minister:
When it comes to Brexit I don't think the charge of dithering stands up. She barely moved from her initial position all the way through to the day she left office, and it remains the only plausible orderly Brexit available.
Anecdotal but I have been surprised how many people that I have spoken to who are expressing admiration for Boris.
The perception seems to be that he is ruthless (and Ruthless, alas), clear in what he wants to achieve and getting things done after the agonising drift of May. This view has come from remainers, leavers, Tories and non Tories alike and in my limited contacts has been almost universal. It will be interesting to see the next lot of polling but people seem to like a government that actually has some idea of what it wants. I must admit it has surprised me.
It's just Theresa May on fast-forward. She was seen as ruthless and decisive at first too.
Theresa May was dithering from the start.
No she wasn't. She said she'd trigger Article 50 by the end of March 2017 and she did it in the face of a huge amount of opposition inside and outside parliament.
Lord knows I rarely agree with @Philip_Thompson but on this point I do. Indeed, I even said as much two months after she became Prime Minister:
When it comes to Brexit I don't think the charge of dithering stands up. She barely moved from her initial position all the way through to the day she left office, and it remains the only plausible orderly Brexit available.
Certainly. Pig-headed intransigence was her failing, not dithering.
Anecdotal but I have been surprised how many people that I have spoken to who are expressing admiration for Boris.
The perception seems to be that he is ruthless (and Ruthless, alas), clear in what he wants to achieve and getting things done after the agonising drift of May. This view has come from remainers, leavers, Tories and non Tories alike and in my limited contacts has been almost universal. It will be interesting to see the next lot of polling but people seem to like a government that actually has some idea of what it wants. I must admit it has surprised me.
It's just Theresa May on fast-forward. She was seen as ruthless and decisive at first too.
Theresa May was dithering from the start.
No she wasn't. She said she'd trigger Article 50 by the end of March 2017 and she did it in the face of a huge amount of opposition inside and outside parliament.
Lord knows I rarely agree with @Philip_Thompson but on this point I do. Indeed, I even said as much two months after she became Prime Minister:
When it comes to Brexit I don't think the charge of dithering stands up. She barely moved from her initial position all the way through to the day she left office, and it remains the only plausible orderly Brexit available.
Sadly she did a most important dither - from 'No deal is better than a bad deal' to very obviously negotiating with people who knew she meant no such thing. This enabled among other things Labour (and some Tory) to play games believing they knew they were not risking No Deal by declining the deal. I think some of those may wish they had a fourth crack at the old deal now. It looks rather enticing.
Not a surprise, unfortunately. He's one of the good guys, who has been a loyal Conservative for a long time and has done a lot behind the scenes. Not long before th 2010 election, David Cameron asked him to become the Watford candidate at short notice, after the previous candidate had been prosecuted for a bizarre and very unpleasant series of attempts to harass the then LibDem MP Sal Brinton. At the time there was virtually no local association structure left. Richard very rapidly put together a crack team, quickly raised some donations (including from me), and worked very hard to win the seat. It was one of the great Conservative successes of 2010.
Unfortunately he is far too sensible for the modern Conservative Party, as he's dead against a No Deal crash out. Relations with his local association have broken down completely, as the mad ideologues have taken over. I doubt if the party will now retain Watford.
Thanks Richard. That's very helpful from both a political and betting point of view.
What a delightfully appropriate contribution to a site dedicated to politics, and betting!
Apropos of absolutely nothing but how do you guys manage to keep up with the comments here, particularly when we're in crisis mode (which is probably most of the last 3 years)?
Go away for 45 minutes and there's another full page of comments to read :-D
Most of our posts are repetitive, so you can slap any old cock down in the certain knowledge that somebody upstream will have posted something that fits. Plus there's always something to talk about.
Anecdotal but I have been surprised how many people that I have spoken to who are expressing admiration for Boris.
The perception seems to be that he is ruthless (and Ruthless, alas), clear in what he wants to achieve and getting things done after the agonising drift of May. This view has come from remainers, leavers, Tories and non Tories alike and in my limited contacts has been almost universal. It will be interesting to see the next lot of polling but people seem to like a government that actually has some idea of what it wants. I must admit it has surprised me.
It's just Theresa May on fast-forward. She was seen as ruthless and decisive at first too.
Theresa May was dithering from the start.
No she wasn't. She said she'd trigger Article 50 by the end of March 2017 and she did it in the face of a huge amount of opposition inside and outside parliament.
Lord knows I rarely agree with @Philip_Thompson but on this point I do. Indeed, I even said as much two months after she became Prime Minister:
When it comes to Brexit I don't think the charge of dithering stands up. She barely moved from her initial position all the way through to the day she left office, and it remains the only plausible orderly Brexit available.
It remains the only plausible orderly Brexit available given the Red lines she unilaterally insisted upon.
Granted those red lines are probably required but other plausible orderly Brexit options existed.
Those 4 in Labour who would not vote No Confidence but would support no deal Brexit should really already have had the Labour whip removed.
I would expect that if 20 Conservatives vote No Confidence in the Government then there would be more than 20 voting for a GoNU not lead by Corby assuming the VoNC had already gone through. There must be some who would begrudgingly support Johnson in a VoNC but would say "Sorry, but you need to step aside" once the VoNC is lost.
Anecdotal but I have been surprised how many people that I have spoken to who are expressing admiration for Boris.
The perception seems to be that he is ruthless (and Ruthless, alas), clear in what he wants to achieve and getting things done after the agonising drift of May. This view has come from remainers, leavers, Tories and non Tories alike and in my limited contacts has been almost universal. It will be interesting to see the next lot of polling but people seem to like a government that actually has some idea of what it wants. I must admit it has surprised me.
It's just Theresa May on fast-forward. She was seen as ruthless and decisive at first too.
Theresa May was dithering from the start.
No she wasn't. She said she'd trigger Article 50 by the end of March 2017 and she did it in the face of a huge amount of opposition inside and outside parliament.
Lord knows I rarely agree with @Philip_Thompson but on this point I do. Indeed, I even said as much two months after she became Prime Minister:
When it comes to Brexit I don't think the charge of dithering stands up. She barely moved from her initial position all the way through to the day she left office, and it remains the only plausible orderly Brexit available.
Sadly she did a most important dither - from 'No deal is better than a bad deal' to very obviously negotiating with people who knew she meant no such thing. This enabled among other things Labour (and some Tory) to play games believing they knew they were not risking No Deal by declining the deal. I think some of those may wish they had a fourth crack at the old deal now. It looks rather enticing.
That wasn't a dither; it was a lie. Even if she meant it, the EU would still know it wasn't true.
Just on the EU - is their official position that MPs views on Brexit should be taken account of, or shouldn’t? Or just those who oppose no deal/favour remain, but not those who oppose the deal agreed between the EU and the British Govt but which cannot be renegotiated as a result of MPs rejecting it?
Apropos of absolutely nothing but how do you guys manage to keep up with the comments here, particularly when we're in crisis mode (which is probably most of the last 3 years)?
Go away for 45 minutes and there's another full page of comments to read :-D
Apropos of absolutely nothing but how do you guys manage to keep up with the comments here, particularly when we're in crisis mode (which is probably most of the last 3 years)?
Go away for 45 minutes and there's another full page of comments to read :-D
Nigelb you asked me a question this morning. Apologies but I've only just seen it. Been out all.
Unfortunately I can't disclose the issue that is causing a bit of a panic re the prorogue of parliament and previous discussions on here over the last few months, as it relates to my wife's work. I suspect it isn't confidential at all, but I need to respect her concerns.
A fair answer.
But given that all those bills will fail on the proroguing of Parliament, I was curious how many of them are necessary to the managing of any no deal Brexit, and how much extra damage the loss of them would be likely to result in.
Those 4 in Labour who would not vote No Confidence but would support no deal Brexit should really already have had the Labour whip removed.
I would expect that if 20 Conservatives vote No Confidence in the Government then there would be more than 20 voting for a GoNU not lead by Corby assuming the VoNC had already gone through. There must be some who would begrudgingly support Johnson in a VoNC but would say "Sorry, but you need to step aside" once the VoNC is lost.
As they would lose the whip just as the GE was called, there might also be 20 extra seats in a general election where the Conservative candidate was someone other than the sitting (former) Conservative MP.
Apropos of absolutely nothing but how do you guys manage to keep up with the comments here, particularly when we're in crisis mode (which is probably most of the last 3 years)?
Go away for 45 minutes and there's another full page of comments to read :-D
Not a surprise, unfortunately. He's one of the good guys, who has been a loyal Conservative for a long time and has done a lot behind the scenes. Not long before th 2010 election, David Cameron asked him to become the Watford candidate at short notice, after the previous candidate had been prosecuted for a bizarre and very unpleasant series of attempts to harass the then LibDem MP Sal Brinton. At the time there was virtually no local association structure left. Richard very rapidly put together a crack team, quickly raised some donations (including from me), and worked very hard to win the seat. It was one of the great Conservative successes of 2010.
Unfortunately he is far too sensible for the modern Conservative Party, as he's dead against a No Deal crash out. Relations with his local association have broken down completely, as the mad ideologues have taken over. I doubt if the party will now retain Watford.
Thanks Richard. That's very helpful from both a political and betting point of view.
What a delightfully appropriate contribution to a site dedicated to politics, and betting!
His predecesoor as Tory candidate was a contributor here IIRC?
Apropos of absolutely nothing but how do you guys manage to keep up with the comments here, particularly when we're in crisis mode (which is probably most of the last 3 years)?
Go away for 45 minutes and there's another full page of comments to read :-D
We're supposed to read other people's comments?
Ah, I've stumbled into the Zone of Understanding.
Also, if you have a job, that is where you are going wrong.
Those 4 in Labour who would not vote No Confidence but would support no deal Brexit should really already have had the Labour whip removed.
I would expect that if 20 Conservatives vote No Confidence in the Government then there would be more than 20 voting for a GoNU not lead by Corby assuming the VoNC had already gone through. There must be some who would begrudgingly support Johnson in a VoNC but would say "Sorry, but you need to step aside" once the VoNC is lost.
That is crazy. People like Caroline Flint have done nothing but represent their working class constituents and try to pass a deal that protects them, while implementing the referendum result. You can't blame people who voted for a deal three times that there is no deal.
Settle down at the back. All cyclefree's headers are well written and cogently argued. You may (and I do) disagree rather strongly with a lot of it but to throw your hands up and shout WALL OF TEXT doesn't do you any favours.
Here's that disagreement. Suspending standing orders, allowing the amending of unamenable motions and picking amendments for the speaker's own objects are all constitutionally more damaging and less precedented than timing a QS for political advantage. Attlee did it, Major did it, sun still rose, sun still set.
As a football analogy, the former would be Gaukeward FC allowing offsides in the first half and changing more than 3 subs. Boris FC, however, are just knocking the ball back to the keeper or holding it up at the corner flag because they are ahead on away goals. Ruthless, cynical, unsporting, universally derided by those on the receiving end, and yet wholly valid.
Enough with the bloody analogies - they are not illuminating.
It would be more accurate to say that what Boris FC are doing is holding the ball out of play for eight of the final ten minutes. But it still wouldn’t be accurate.
Those 4 in Labour who would not vote No Confidence but would support no deal Brexit should really already have had the Labour whip removed.
I would expect that if 20 Conservatives vote No Confidence in the Government then there would be more than 20 voting for a GoNU not lead by Corby assuming the VoNC had already gone through. There must be some who would begrudgingly support Johnson in a VoNC but would say "Sorry, but you need to step aside" once the VoNC is lost.
That is crazy. People like Caroline Flint have done nothing but represent their working class constituents and try to pass a deal that protects them, while implementing the referendum result. You can't blame people who voted for a deal three times that there is no deal.
Labour MPs should not be supporting the conservative PM in a VoNC.
Not a surprise, unfortunately. He's one of the good guys, who has been a loyal Conservative for a long time and has done a lot behind the scenes. Not long before th 2010 election, David Cameron asked him to become the Watford candidate at short notice, after the previous candidate had been prosecuted for a bizarre and very unpleasant series of attempts to harass the then LibDem MP Sal Brinton. At the time there was virtually no local association structure left. Richard very rapidly put together a crack team, quickly raised some donations (including from me), and worked very hard to win the seat. It was one of the great Conservative successes of 2010.
Unfortunately he is far too sensible for the modern Conservative Party, as he's dead against a No Deal crash out. Relations with his local association have broken down completely, as the mad ideologues have taken over. I doubt if the party will now retain Watford.
Sal Brinton was never an MP. IIRC her father was a Tory MP but she was just LD candidate for Watford in 2005 and 2010. Still the former Tory PPC was out of order slashing tyres and doing other sorts of vindictive behaviour.
Anecdotal but I have been surprised how many people that I have spoken to who are expressing admiration for Boris.
The perception seems to be that he is ruthless (and Ruthless, alas), clear in what he wants to achieve and getting things done after the agonising drift of May. This view has come from remainers, leavers, Tories and non Tories alike and in my limited contacts has been almost universal. It will be interesting to see the next lot of polling but people seem to like a government that actually has some idea of what it wants. I must admit it has surprised me.
It's just Theresa May on fast-forward. She was seen as ruthless and decisive at first too.
Theresa May was dithering from the start.
No she wasn't. She said she'd trigger Article 50 by the end of March 2017 and she did it in the face of a huge amount of opposition inside and outside parliament.
Lord knows I rarely agree with @Philip_Thompson but on this point I do. Indeed, I even said as much two months after she became Prime Minister:
When it comes to Brexit I don't think the charge of dithering stands up. She barely moved from her initial position all the way through to the day she left office, and it remains the only plausible orderly Brexit available.
It remains the only plausible orderly Brexit available given the Red lines she unilaterally insisted upon.
Granted those red lines are probably required but other plausible orderly Brexit options existed.
Her red lines weren't as unilateral as that. She stood for the leadership on a platform of saying that the Vote Leave promises of and end to free movement and an independent trade policy couldn't be junked.
Apropos of absolutely nothing but how do you guys manage to keep up with the comments here, particularly when we're in crisis mode (which is probably most of the last 3 years)?
Go away for 45 minutes and there's another full page of comments to read :-D
We're supposed to read other people's comments?
Ah, I've stumbled into the Zone of Understanding.
Also, if you have a job, that is where you are going wrong.
I dropped from 5 days a week to 4 earlier this year.
Nominally, I'm supposed to be using the time to write a book, although I've spent most of my time refreshing PB and twitter.
The book is probably going to take a while at this rate...!
He is not standing at the next GE, had fallen out with his association long before brexit, is ex plaid and would have been de-selected anyway for many reasons not just brexit
Those 4 in Labour who would not vote No Confidence but would support no deal Brexit should really already have had the Labour whip removed.
I would expect that if 20 Conservatives vote No Confidence in the Government then there would be more than 20 voting for a GoNU not lead by Corby assuming the VoNC had already gone through. There must be some who would begrudgingly support Johnson in a VoNC but would say "Sorry, but you need to step aside" once the VoNC is lost.
That is crazy. People like Caroline Flint have done nothing but represent their working class constituents and try to pass a deal that protects them, while implementing the referendum result. You can't blame people who voted for a deal three times that there is no deal.
Labour MPs should not be supporting the conservative PM in a VoNC.
They should do if the alternative is anti-Semitic, Hamas-supporting bigot that is a betrayal of Labour values. The Labour movement is far more than the mottled crew that infiltrated and took over the party.
Posted in haste but someone just made an interesting point I hadn’t appreciated
In proroguing Parliament, Boris opens up possibility of a new vote on the WA. The limitation on reintroduction is on the number of times *per session* not in total
I have come to the conclusion that there are about 30 conservative mps who want to stop no deal, but they fear a vonc for the precise reason they are mainly from London and the South and are under serious threat from the Lib Dems. A GE now would be a wipe out for them.
Indeed labour only started panicking when the Lib Dems became a real threat to labour London seats including Corbyn, Abbott, McDonnell and Thornberry and that threat still remains
LDs plummeting since Tory Swinson started making TV appearances. Next GE is Tory No Deal or Jezza.
You do talk some crap
LDs on 23% when Tory Swinson elected now at 17%
Main reason Tory Swinson being crap? or perhaps you can provide another explanation for LDs plummeting since Tory Swinson started making TV appearances.
Must be a new definition of 'plummeting'.
LD average of thelast 5 polls before Swinson became leader = 18% LD average of the last 5 polls up to today = 17.2%
During the same period Labour's average has risen from 25.2% all the way up to, er... 23.8% Ooops!
And the answer is pretty simple: the political news has more or less squeezed the Lib Dems. That is probably now set to change, so I think their poll rating will indeed firm up a bit, especially since it seems that Cummings is an even bigger ars**le than Milne..
We will see what happens in Shetland, but elsewhere, the local results have been very solid indeed.
Wishful thinking Cicero, they are circling the drain. Shetland will be reduced majority at best to further pile on the pressure.
I don't think Swinson is solely responsible though I do think she risks alienating lab->ld switchers. I think we're more just seeing the EU election bounce fade. If so I think the LDs will suffer whenever issues other than Brexit are at the fore. To what extent this will happen in a GE is one of the big unanswered questions of the moment.
I agree, but she has been poor since becoming leader. I never rated her before and amazed she got the job. She is just a right wing Tory in sandals.
The LibDems have made poor choices in their last two leadership contests. Norman Lamb would have been ten times better than Tim Farron, and Ed Davey would be more formidable than Jo Swinson. Nature of the party, I guess, they go for happy-clappy.
He is not standing at the next GE, had fallen out with his association long before brexit, is ex plaid and would have been de-selected anyway for many reasons not just brexit
Some people are complaining about the Commons losing 4 scheduled days prior to the overdue Queen's Speech, some even saying that its taking away half the Commons time before Brexit. So I thought I'd run the numbers, please tell me if any of these are wrong. This is without considering the years prior to Johnson becoming PM, or the fact that Brexit is already overdue and late.
Boris Johnson became PM on 27/7/19 and Brexit has for months been scheduled to occur on 31/10/19. Assuming the Commons couldn't effectively scrutinise on those two dates there were available 69 weekdays available to the Commons, without even needing to work weekends, inbetween Boris being elected and Brexit. Personally I like much of the country work on weekends and bank holidays, especially if anything urgent is coming up, but lets be charitable and exclude the Bank Holiday and it is 68 working days available.
The Conference Season rightly or wrongly is part of how parties get held to account in our party system and was pre-scheduled to occur between 13 September and 8 October. That MPs knew in advance used up 16 days available to them. Proroguation has conveniently been scheduled to cover this period where the Commons wouldn't be sitting anyway.
MPs chose to take a summer holiday between 25/7 and 3/9. That covered 27 working days. Nice for some to have one vacation that long btw at a time when they have urgent business; most of the country gets 28 days per annum to cover all days off including bank holidays. MPs could have voted against this holiday given the urgency of Brexit but chose not to.
MPs choose to not turn up to the Commons on Fridays. They could choose to vote to make the Commons sit on Fridays but choose not to. Nice for some again when most of the country has to turn up to the office five days per week, especially when an urgent deadline is approaching. That means they aren't coming in on 5 working days they could even outside of scheduled recesses.
Proroguation now will take up between 4 and 7 of the scheduled days the Commons would sit, depending upon on which day the Commons is prorogued.
That leaves to my reckoning 15 - 18 days left for the Commons to sit before Brexit.
Yougov now has most Labour voters backing May's Withdrawal Agreement and seeing it as acceptable by 48% to 41%, along with most Tory voters by 51% to 40% and a plurality of Scots by 39% to 38%.
However LD and Brexit Party voters still oppose the Withdrawal Agreement
A report today said France and Germany stand to lose 55 billion alone on a no deal
We would not be the only ones shooting ourselves in the foot
That has long been the case. But they are confident we are more hurt, probably correctly, and would prefer that to 'giving in', just as we would rather take the hit than 'give in' anymore.
I have come to the conclusion that there are about 30 conservative mps who want to stop no deal, but they fear a vonc for the precise reason they are mainly from London and the South and are under serious threat from the Lib Dems. A GE now would be a wipe out for them.
Indeed labour only started panicking when the Lib Dems became a real threat to labour London seats including Corbyn, Abbott, McDonnell and Thornberry and that threat still remains
LDs plummeting since Tory Swinson started making TV appearances. Next GE is Tory No Deal or Jezza.
You do talk some crap
LDs on 23% when Tory Swinson elected now at 17%
Main reason Tory Swinson being crap? or perhaps you can provide another explanation for LDs plummeting since Tory Swinson started making TV appearances.
Must be a new definition of 'plummeting'.
LD average of thelast 5 polls before Swinson became leader = 18% LD average of the last 5 polls up to today = 17.2%
During the same period Labour's average has risen from 25.2% all the way up to, er... 23.8% Ooops!
And the answer is pretty simple: the political news has more or less squeezed the Lib Dems. That is probably now set to change, so I think their poll rating will indeed firm up a bit, especially since it seems that Cummings is an even bigger ars**le than Milne..
We will see what happens in Shetland, but elsewhere, the local results have been very solid indeed.
Wishful thinking Cicero, they are circling the drain. Shetland will be reduced majority at best to further pile on the pressure.
I don't think Swinson is solely responsible though I do think she risks alienating lab->ld switchers. I think we're more just seeing the EU election bounce fade. If so I think the LDs will suffer whenever issues other than Brexit are at the fore. To what extent this will happen in a GE is one of the big unanswered questions of the moment.
I agree, but she has been poor since becoming leader. I never rated her before and amazed she got the job. She is just a right wing Tory in sandals.
The LibDems have made poor choices in their last two leadership contests. Norman Lamb would have been ten times better than Tim Farron, and Ed Davey would be more formidable than Jo Swinson. Nature of the party, I guess, they go for happy-clappy.
There was a third leadership contest between those two, although admittedly only one candidate stood.
Not a surprise, unfortunately. He's one of the good guys, who has been a loyal Conservative for a long time and has done a lot behind the scenes. Not long before th 2010 election, David Cameron asked him to become the Watford candidate at short notice, after the previous candidate had been prosecuted for a bizarre and very unpleasant series of attempts to harass the then LibDem MP Sal Brinton. At the time there was virtually no local association structure left. Richard very rapidly put together a crack team, quickly raised some donations (including from me), and worked very hard to win the seat. It was one of the great Conservative successes of 2010.
Unfortunately he is far too sensible for the modern Conservative Party, as he's dead against a No Deal crash out. Relations with his local association have broken down completely, as the mad ideologues have taken over. I doubt if the party will now retain Watford.
Thanks Richard. That's very helpful from both a political and betting point of view.
What a delightfully appropriate contribution to a site dedicated to politics, and betting!
His predecesoor as Tory candidate was a contributor here IIRC?
I think somebody knew him from PB as they mentioned going for a pint with him! I cannot remember him ever using his name on here but he could of used an alias I suppose.
MPs had 68 working days. 26%: They were due to spend 16 working on annual Conference season. 40%: They chose to spend 27 on holiday. 7%: They choose to spend 5 taking Friday's off from the Commons. 6-10%: They're losing 4-7 due to proroguation. 22-24%: They have left still sitting.
Even if there had been no proroguation, the Commons knew when it chose to take a six week holiday that they were taking off 40% of the time it had left to it.
Even if there had been no proroguation, the Commons knew when it chose to take its six weeks holiday, and chose to continue taking Fridays off that it was taking off almost half the time available to it even excluding Conferences.
Parliament could regain the lost time by bothering to sit on Fridays.
I have no sympathies with 4 lost days when MPs still think that sorting out Brexit was less important than taking six weeks off in the sunshine or bothering to turn up on Fridays.
A report today said France and Germany stand to lose 55 billion alone on a no deal
We would not be the only ones shooting ourselves in the foot
Both sides are just so intransigent. The UK says checks between NI and GB would be too much a division and insist off-the-border/technological light checks between NI and ROI would not be noticeable. The EU says checks between NI and ROI would be too much a division and insist off-the-border/technological light checks between NI and GB would not be noticeable.
Posted in haste but someone just made an interesting point I hadn’t appreciated
In proroguing Parliament, Boris opens up possibility of a new vote on the WA. The limitation on reintroduction is on the number of times *per session* not in total
These pro-EU protesters are losing the plot. Alex Chalk is very pro-EU and it was stated in Shipmans book that he was at the fringes of the Grieve group. I admit that he has kept his head down but he could be an ally of these people. I imagine the local Lib Dems got their rabble out.
He's a good MP but he'll do well to stave off the LDs at the next GE.
Interesting article. But Tom Chivers is crucially wrong about one thing. We are not playing chicken with all of Europe. We are playing chicken with Ireland. An entirely different scenario.
Maybe, but if your opponent in the game of chicken *believes* that they are driving a tank and *believes* that you are driving a Chevy Vega then there is no reason for them to swerve even if they've seen that you've thrown your steering wheel away.
Nigelb you asked me a question this morning. Apologies but I've only just seen it. Been out all.
Unfortunately I can't disclose the issue that is causing a bit of a panic re the prorogue of parliament and previous discussions on here over the last few months, as it relates to my wife's work. I suspect it isn't confidential at all, but I need to respect her concerns.
A fair answer.
But given that all those bills will fail on the proroguing of Parliament, I was curious how many of them are necessary to the managing of any no deal Brexit, and how much extra damage the loss of them would be likely to result in.
Anyone else care to comment on the loss of these bills in the context of a no deal Brexit?
Agriculture Bill Financial services (implementation of legislation) Bill Fisheries Bill Immigration & Social Security Coordination (EU Withdrawal) Bill Trade Bill
Posted in haste but someone just made an interesting point I hadn’t appreciated
In proroguing Parliament, Boris opens up possibility of a new vote on the WA. The limitation on reintroduction is on the number of times *per session* not in total
I pointed that out yesterday lunchtime but it’s not actually that important as a substantially changed bill can be reintroduced and removing the backstop would be a substantive change.
Hence it only works if Boris wants to offer May’s exact deal with backstop or No Deal in the hope Labour MPs blink (and they won’t )
Comments
2) is a risk but to be frank the people who will complain are those that will always complain - as Boris will discover when things go wrong.
Unfortunately I can't disclose the issue that is causing a bit of a panic re the prorogue of parliament and previous discussions on here over the last few months, as it relates to my wife's work. I suspect it isn't confidential at all, but I need to respect her concerns.
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1167019231008972800
Personally I think it's excellent and I marvel at her ability to gather her thoughts so quickly.
https://twitter.com/SFFakeNews/status/1167109650145316864
And whilst I would agree that there is a consistency in the output I think it must be pretty clear to even the most one-eyed reader that the content is little more than a rant...which is fine, but let's not pretend it is a reasoned piece of analysis.
The perception seems to be that he is ruthless (and Ruthless, alas), clear in what he wants to achieve and getting things done after the agonising drift of May. This view has come from remainers, leavers, Tories and non Tories alike and in my limited contacts has been almost universal. It will be interesting to see the next lot of polling but people seem to like a government that actually has some idea of what it wants. I must admit it has surprised me.
https://twitter.com/GeorgiGotev/status/1167111891170353153
Sort them out Priti.
Political slant aside, I think in most cases, article writers should decide what the central thrust of their argument is, ensure that central thrust something that takes a novel or significant slant on the chosen discussion topic, flag up very clearly what that is in the opening paragraph, and use the rest of the piece to corroborate the point being made. Otherwise it just reads like a lecture from a pub bore.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/09/11/meet-the-new-boss/
Here's that disagreement. Suspending standing orders, allowing the amending of unamenable motions and picking amendments for the speaker's own objects are all constitutionally more damaging and less precedented than timing a QS for political advantage. Attlee did it, Major did it, sun still rose, sun still set.
As a football analogy, the former would be Gaukeward FC allowing offsides in the first half and changing more than 3 subs. Boris FC, however, are just knocking the ball back to the keeper or holding it up at the corner flag because they are ahead on away goals. Ruthless, cynical, unsporting, universally derided by those on the receiving end, and yet wholly valid.
in sandals.
Go away for 45 minutes and there's another full page of comments to read :-D
Unfortunately he is far too sensible for the modern Conservative Party, as he's dead against a No Deal crash out. Relations with his local association have broken down completely, as the mad ideologues have taken over. I doubt if the party will now retain Watford.
She came face to face with reality.
Boris is not allowing reality in to his world so we shall see what his next moves are.
Article 50 set the 2 year deadline, not the UK.
What a delightfully appropriate contribution to a site dedicated to politics, and betting!
Granted those red lines are probably required but other plausible orderly Brexit options existed.
I would expect that if 20 Conservatives vote No Confidence in the Government then there would be more than 20 voting for a GoNU not lead by Corby assuming the VoNC had already gone through. There must be some who would begrudgingly support Johnson in a VoNC but would say "Sorry, but you need to step aside" once the VoNC is lost.
But given that all those bills will fail on the proroguing of Parliament, I was curious how many of them are necessary to the managing of any no deal Brexit, and how much extra damage the loss of them would be likely to result in.
Whichever way you cut it it's down to the Tory party's gross incompetence we're in this mess.
https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1167105379081363456
It would be more accurate to say that what Boris FC are doing is holding the ball out of play for eight of the final ten minutes. But it still wouldn’t be accurate.
Nominally, I'm supposed to be using the time to write a book, although I've spent most of my time refreshing PB and twitter.
The book is probably going to take a while at this rate...!
In proroguing Parliament, Boris opens up possibility of a new vote on the WA. The limitation on reintroduction is on the number of times *per session* not in total
We would not be the only ones shooting ourselves in the foot
Boris Johnson became PM on 27/7/19 and Brexit has for months been scheduled to occur on 31/10/19. Assuming the Commons couldn't effectively scrutinise on those two dates there were available 69 weekdays available to the Commons, without even needing to work weekends, inbetween Boris being elected and Brexit. Personally I like much of the country work on weekends and bank holidays, especially if anything urgent is coming up, but lets be charitable and exclude the Bank Holiday and it is 68 working days available.
The Conference Season rightly or wrongly is part of how parties get held to account in our party system and was pre-scheduled to occur between 13 September and 8 October. That MPs knew in advance used up 16 days available to them. Proroguation has conveniently been scheduled to cover this period where the Commons wouldn't be sitting anyway.
MPs chose to take a summer holiday between 25/7 and 3/9. That covered 27 working days. Nice for some to have one vacation that long btw at a time when they have urgent business; most of the country gets 28 days per annum to cover all days off including bank holidays. MPs could have voted against this holiday given the urgency of Brexit but chose not to.
MPs choose to not turn up to the Commons on Fridays. They could choose to vote to make the Commons sit on Fridays but choose not to. Nice for some again when most of the country has to turn up to the office five days per week, especially when an urgent deadline is approaching. That means they aren't coming in on 5 working days they could even outside of scheduled recesses.
Proroguation now will take up between 4 and 7 of the scheduled days the Commons would sit, depending upon on which day the Commons is prorogued.
That leaves to my reckoning 15 - 18 days left for the Commons to sit before Brexit.
PART 1
However LD and Brexit Party voters still oppose the Withdrawal Agreement
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/08/29/search-median-voter-brexit
The Ruth D news sums up the state of today's conservative party. No longer a broad church, but a Brexit No Deal cult.
MPs had 68 working days.
26%: They were due to spend 16 working on annual Conference season.
40%: They chose to spend 27 on holiday.
7%: They choose to spend 5 taking Friday's off from the Commons.
6-10%: They're losing 4-7 due to proroguation.
22-24%: They have left still sitting.
Even if there had been no proroguation, the Commons knew when it chose to take a six week holiday that they were taking off 40% of the time it had left to it.
Even if there had been no proroguation, the Commons knew when it chose to take its six weeks holiday, and chose to continue taking Fridays off that it was taking off almost half the time available to it even excluding Conferences.
Parliament could regain the lost time by bothering to sit on Fridays.
I have no sympathies with 4 lost days when MPs still think that sorting out Brexit was less important than taking six weeks off in the sunshine or bothering to turn up on Fridays.
Ken is waiting.
They are as bad as each other.
Agriculture Bill
Financial services (implementation of legislation) Bill
Fisheries Bill
Immigration & Social Security Coordination (EU Withdrawal) Bill
Trade Bill
Hence it only works if Boris wants to offer May’s exact deal with backstop or No Deal in the hope Labour MPs blink (and they won’t )