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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tangled Web that has evolved

SystemSystem Posts: 12,171
edited August 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tangled Web that has evolved

We should not have been surprised. Johnson has never had much desire to be held accountable. Not as London Mayor. Nor as Foreign Secretary. Even when he misspoke (to put it at its most charitable) over Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, his response was petulant and grudging. He went out of his way to avoid scrutiny at the start of his campaign to become Tory leader. This is not a politician who enjoys debate and argument, willing to test his ideas, face challenge. This is not someone who understands in his bones that an idea, a policy, an argument, is strengthened by being rigorously tested. This is not someone who understands that successful leadership can only be done through consent (at least in a free country), that persuasion is better than command, at least if you want your achievements to last.

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Comments

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Excellent.
  • tl;dr
  • Cyclefree for Prime Minister.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Boris and his cult are not interested in being accountable. They are not interested in the rule of law. They are not interested in keeping the nation together.

    They are only interested in being seen to win.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Thank you for the header, Cyclefree!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    FPT

    nichomar said:

    I have come to the conclusion that there are about 30 conservative mps who want to stop no deal, but they fear a vonc for the precise reason they are mainly from London and the South and are under serious threat from the Lib Dems. A GE now would be a wipe out for them.

    Indeed labour only started panicking when the Lib Dems became a real threat to labour London seats including Corbyn, Abbott, McDonnell and Thornberry and that threat still remains

    LDs plummeting since Tory Swinson started making TV appearances. Next GE is Tory No Deal or Jezza.
    You do talk some crap
    LDs on 23% when Tory Swinson elected now at 17%

    Main reason Tory Swinson being crap? or perhaps you can provide another explanation for LDs plummeting since Tory Swinson started making TV appearances.
    Must be a new definition of 'plummeting'.

    LD average of thelast 5 polls before Swinson became leader = 18%
    LD average of the last 5 polls up to today = 17.2%

    During the same period Labour's average has risen from 25.2% all the way up to, er... 23.8% Ooops!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    tl;dr

    You should!
  • tl;dr

    That's your loss, Brisky me old lad.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    FPT:
    eristdoof said:

    Reposting, as this was a genuine question that no one has answered

    eristdoof said:

    One thing I can't remember being discussed here is this scenario (disclaimer: This is not a prediction but a hypothetical).

    Parliament finds a way to compell Johnson to go to Brussels and ask for another extension.
    Boris "kicks the can" until October 30 when he anounces that he was elected PM on the policy "we will be leaving on the 31st" and refuses to carry out the parliamentary mandate.
    The UK leaves with no deal on the 31st.

    I understand that BJ will be held in contempt of parliament, but what exactly are the ramifications of that. Does he get a slap on the wrist from John Bercow, or is he thrown out of office? Somehow I cannot see the latter being forceable without a VoNC. And once again are there enough Tories prepared to give up their Westminster careers to win a VoNC once the UK has actually left the EU?

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/glossary/?gl=95
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Johnson is just your run-of-the-mill cowardly demagogue.

    Full of braggadocio, but running a mile from any situation where he can be held to account.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698

    Cyclefree for Prime Minister.

    She'd get my vote!
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    ydoethur said:

    FPT:

    eristdoof said:

    Reposting, as this was a genuine question that no one has answered

    eristdoof said:

    One thing I can't remember being discussed here is this scenario (disclaimer: This is not a prediction but a hypothetical).

    Parliament finds a way to compell Johnson to go to Brussels and ask for another extension.
    Boris "kicks the can" until October 30 when he anounces that he was elected PM on the policy "we will be leaving on the 31st" and refuses to carry out the parliamentary mandate.
    The UK leaves with no deal on the 31st.

    I understand that BJ will be held in contempt of parliament, but what exactly are the ramifications of that. Does he get a slap on the wrist from John Bercow, or is he thrown out of office? Somehow I cannot see the latter being forceable without a VoNC. And once again are there enough Tories prepared to give up their Westminster careers to win a VoNC once the UK has actually left the EU?

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/glossary/?gl=95
    But we still would have left the EU. Boris being punished by Parliament is almost something he would welcome.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    “You know that weirdo that shouts "Stop Brexit" over the TV news”

    Where’s your backstop alternative Boris?
    Where’s the backstop negotiation?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Might there be a lesson there for subsequent leaders? That, just possibly, if you involve colleagues from the start you might get a better decision and more chance of getting it implemented. Just a thought....

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1167089010784837633
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT:

    eristdoof said:

    Reposting, as this was a genuine question that no one has answered

    eristdoof said:

    One thing I can't remember being discussed here is this scenario (disclaimer: This is not a prediction but a hypothetical).

    Parliament finds a way to compell Johnson to go to Brussels and ask for another extension.
    Boris "kicks the can" until October 30 when he anounces that he was elected PM on the policy "we will be leaving on the 31st" and refuses to carry out the parliamentary mandate.
    The UK leaves with no deal on the 31st.

    I understand that BJ will be held in contempt of parliament, but what exactly are the ramifications of that. Does he get a slap on the wrist from John Bercow, or is he thrown out of office? Somehow I cannot see the latter being forceable without a VoNC. And once again are there enough Tories prepared to give up their Westminster careers to win a VoNC once the UK has actually left the EU?

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/glossary/?gl=95
    But we still would have left the EU. Boris being punished by Parliament is almost something he would welcome.
    Yes, but if he ceases to be an MP he ceases to be PM. So I don't think he would push it that far. Remember, Boris Johnson cares deeply about only one thing - himself.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    Nigelb said:

    Might there be a lesson there for subsequent leaders? That, just possibly, if you involve colleagues from the start you might get a better decision and more chance of getting it implemented. Just a thought....

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1167089010784837633

    Equally

    https://twitter.com/number10staffer/status/1167095940236423169
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    ydoethur said:

    FPT:

    eristdoof said:

    Reposting, as this was a genuine question that no one has answered

    eristdoof said:

    One thing I can't remember being discussed here is this scenario (disclaimer: This is not a prediction but a hypothetical).

    Parliament finds a way to compell Johnson to go to Brussels and ask for another extension.
    Boris "kicks the can" until October 30 when he anounces that he was elected PM on the policy "we will be leaving on the 31st" and refuses to carry out the parliamentary mandate.
    The UK leaves with no deal on the 31st.

    I understand that BJ will be held in contempt of parliament, but what exactly are the ramifications of that. Does he get a slap on the wrist from John Bercow, or is he thrown out of office? Somehow I cannot see the latter being forceable without a VoNC. And once again are there enough Tories prepared to give up their Westminster careers to win a VoNC once the UK has actually left the EU?

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/glossary/?gl=95
    If the PM's expelled from the HoC I presume he/she can no longer be PM?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT:

    eristdoof said:

    Reposting, as this was a genuine question that no one has answered

    eristdoof said:

    One thing I can't remember being discussed here is this scenario (disclaimer: This is not a prediction but a hypothetical).

    Parliament finds a way to compell Johnson to go to Brussels and ask for another extension.
    Boris "kicks the can" until October 30 when he anounces that he was elected PM on the policy "we will be leaving on the 31st" and refuses to carry out the parliamentary mandate.
    The UK leaves with no deal on the 31st.

    I understand that BJ will be held in contempt of parliament, but what exactly are the ramifications of that. Does he get a slap on the wrist from John Bercow, or is he thrown out of office? Somehow I cannot see the latter being forceable without a VoNC. And once again are there enough Tories prepared to give up their Westminster careers to win a VoNC once the UK has actually left the EU?

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/glossary/?gl=95
    But we still would have left the EU. Boris being punished by Parliament is almost something he would welcome.
    Yes, but if he ceases to be an MP he ceases to be PM. So I don't think he would push it that far. Remember, Boris Johnson cares deeply about only one thing - himself.
    No he appoints himself to the House of Lords and carries on.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Might there be a lesson there for subsequent leaders? That, just possibly, if you involve colleagues from the start you might get a better decision and more chance of getting it implemented. Just a thought....

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1167089010784837633

    Equally

    https://twitter.com/number10staffer/status/1167095940236423169
    Spoof account. Ignore. Somebody who persistently misspells and cannot compose simple grammatical sentences wouldn't be working in Downing Street.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT:

    eristdoof said:

    Reposting, as this was a genuine question that no one has answered

    eristdoof said:

    One thing I can't remember being discussed here is this scenario (disclaimer: This is not a prediction but a hypothetical).

    Parliament finds a way to compell Johnson to go to Brussels and ask for another extension.
    Boris "kicks the can" until October 30 when he anounces that he was elected PM on the policy "we will be leaving on the 31st" and refuses to carry out the parliamentary mandate.
    The UK leaves with no deal on the 31st.

    I understand that BJ will be held in contempt of parliament, but what exactly are the ramifications of that. Does he get a slap on the wrist from John Bercow, or is he thrown out of office? Somehow I cannot see the latter being forceable without a VoNC. And once again are there enough Tories prepared to give up their Westminster careers to win a VoNC once the UK has actually left the EU?

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/glossary/?gl=95
    But we still would have left the EU. Boris being punished by Parliament is almost something he would welcome.
    Yes, but if he ceases to be an MP he ceases to be PM. So I don't think he would push it that far. Remember, Boris Johnson cares deeply about only one thing - himself.
    No he appoints himself to the House of Lords and carries on.
    If he was expelled from Parliament that option would not be open to him.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    eek said:
    If this person is genuine they are taking a terrible risk and will surely be caught pretty quickly.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Might there be a lesson there for subsequent leaders? That, just possibly, if you involve colleagues from the start you might get a better decision and more chance of getting it implemented. Just a thought....

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1167089010784837633

    Equally

    https://twitter.com/number10staffer/status/1167095940236423169
    Spoof account. Ignore. Somebody who persistently misspells and cannot compose simple grammatical sentences wouldn't be working in Downing Street.
    I suspect you're right. Funny all the same :smile:
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Might there be a lesson there for subsequent leaders? That, just possibly, if you involve colleagues from the start you might get a better decision and more chance of getting it implemented. Just a thought....

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1167089010784837633

    Equally

    https://twitter.com/number10staffer/status/1167095940236423169
    Spoof account. Ignore. Somebody who persistently misspells and cannot compose simple grammatical sentences wouldn't be working in Downing Street.
    Can we really be certain of that with the current administration ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    FPT:
    F1: reckoned to be sunny and relatively hot on race day (warm rather than hot for qualifying).

    With tiny stakes I've backed (Ladbrokes, with boost) Verstappen for a podium at 2.8, Verstappen win qualifying at 9 (each way, fifth the odds top three, for a lower stake), and Albon to be fastest in first practice (fifth the odds top three) at 14.

    Just dinky sums. Ferrari should enjoy the straight sections but there's a bit of a risk of Mercedes overheating.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,261
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT:

    eristdoof said:

    Reposting, as this was a genuine question that no one has answered

    eristdoof said:

    One thing I can't remember being discussed here is this scenario (disclaimer: This is not a prediction but a hypothetical).

    Parliament finds a way to compell Johnson to go to Brussels and ask for another extension.
    Boris "kicks the can" until October 30 when he anounces that he was elected PM on the policy "we will be leaving on the 31st" and refuses to carry out the parliamentary mandate.
    The UK leaves with no deal on the 31st.

    I understand that BJ will be held in contempt of parliament, but what exactly are the ramifications of that. Does he get a slap on the wrist from John Bercow, or is he thrown out of office? Somehow I cannot see the latter being forceable without a VoNC. And once again are there enough Tories prepared to give up their Westminster careers to win a VoNC once the UK has actually left the EU?

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/glossary/?gl=95
    But we still would have left the EU. Boris being punished by Parliament is almost something he would welcome.
    Yes, but if he ceases to be an MP he ceases to be PM. So I don't think he would push it that far. Remember, Boris Johnson cares deeply about only one thing - himself.
    No he appoints himself to the House of Lords and carries on.
    If he was expelled from Parliament that option would not be open to him.
    The PM doesn't have to be in Parliament.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited August 2019
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Might there be a lesson there for subsequent leaders? That, just possibly, if you involve colleagues from the start you might get a better decision and more chance of getting it implemented. Just a thought....

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1167089010784837633

    Equally

    https://twitter.com/number10staffer/status/1167095940236423169
    Spoof account. Ignore. Somebody who persistently misspells and cannot compose simple grammatical sentences wouldn't be working in Downing Street.
    Can we really be certain of that with the current administration ?
    They don't appoint Civil Servants.

    Admittedly, Christopher Wormald's English is bad (which was embarrassing/amusing when he was drawing up new 'rigorous' education qualifications and making grammatical errors in them) but not as bad as this.
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    This all looks like a very risky but possibly successful gambit. Goad the craven MPs into a vote of no confidence,. Deliberately lose it. Gamble that no alternative can be formed. General Election. Reasonably comfortable Conservative win on 35%ish of the vote against split opposition. Pass a somewhat revised deal after that.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    ydoethur said:

    FPT:

    eristdoof said:

    Reposting, as this was a genuine question that no one has answered

    eristdoof said:

    One thing I can't remember being discussed here is this scenario (disclaimer: This is not a prediction but a hypothetical).

    Parliament finds a way to compell Johnson to go to Brussels and ask for another extension.
    Boris "kicks the can" until October 30 when he anounces that he was elected PM on the policy "we will be leaving on the 31st" and refuses to carry out the parliamentary mandate.
    The UK leaves with no deal on the 31st.

    I understand that BJ will be held in contempt of parliament, but what exactly are the ramifications of that. Does he get a slap on the wrist from John Bercow, or is he thrown out of office? Somehow I cannot see the latter being forceable without a VoNC. And once again are there enough Tories prepared to give up their Westminster careers to win a VoNC once the UK has actually left the EU?

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/glossary/?gl=95
    If the PM's expelled from the HoC I presume he/she can no longer be PM?
    I don't think being an MP is a requirement, merely a convention.
  • RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT:

    eristdoof said:

    Reposting, as this was a genuine question that no one has answered

    eristdoof said:

    One thing I can't remember being discussed here is this scenario (disclaimer: This is not a prediction but a hypothetical).

    Parliament finds a way to compell Johnson to go to Brussels and ask for another extension.
    Boris "kicks the can" until October 30 when he anounces that he was elected PM on the policy "we will be leaving on the 31st" and refuses to carry out the parliamentary mandate.
    The UK leaves with no deal on the 31st.

    I understand that BJ will be held in contempt of parliament, but what exactly are the ramifications of that. Does he get a slap on the wrist from John Bercow, or is he thrown out of office? Somehow I cannot see the latter being forceable without a VoNC. And once again are there enough Tories prepared to give up their Westminster careers to win a VoNC once the UK has actually left the EU?

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/glossary/?gl=95
    If the PM's expelled from the HoC I presume he/she can no longer be PM?
    I don't think being an MP is a requirement, merely a convention.
    A modern convention

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alec_Douglas-Home
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    FPT:
    F1: reckoned to be sunny and relatively hot on race day (warm rather than hot for qualifying).

    With tiny stakes I've backed (Ladbrokes, with boost) Verstappen for a podium at 2.8, Verstappen win qualifying at 9 (each way, fifth the odds top three, for a lower stake), and Albon to be fastest in first practice (fifth the odds top three) at 14.

    Just dinky sums. Ferrari should enjoy the straight sections but there's a bit of a risk of Mercedes overheating.

    I thought the forecast was for Sunday to be around 10degC cooler than Saturday ?

    If correct, the chance of Mercedes overheating is zero. It might make Verstappen's opting for an excess of the softer tyres a good call, of course.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT:

    eristdoof said:

    Reposting, as this was a genuine question that no one has answered

    eristdoof said:

    One thing I can't remember being discussed here is this scenario (disclaimer: This is not a prediction but a hypothetical).

    Parliament finds a way to compell Johnson to go to Brussels and ask for another extension.
    Boris "kicks the can" until October 30 when he anounces that he was elected PM on the policy "we will be leaving on the 31st" and refuses to carry out the parliamentary mandate.
    The UK leaves with no deal on the 31st.

    I understand that BJ will be held in contempt of parliament, but what exactly are the ramifications of that. Does he get a slap on the wrist from John Bercow, or is he thrown out of office? Somehow I cannot see the latter being forceable without a VoNC. And once again are there enough Tories prepared to give up their Westminster careers to win a VoNC once the UK has actually left the EU?

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/glossary/?gl=95
    But we still would have left the EU. Boris being punished by Parliament is almost something he would welcome.
    Yes, but if he ceases to be an MP he ceases to be PM. So I don't think he would push it that far. Remember, Boris Johnson cares deeply about only one thing - himself.
    No he appoints himself to the House of Lords and carries on.
    If he was expelled from Parliament that option would not be open to him.
    The PM doesn't have to be in Parliament.
    I can only think of two occasions in the last 200 years when Parliament has not been actually dissolved that the PM has not been in Parliament, both times very briefly while switching between Houses - 1876 and 1963. On both occasions, that was understood as a temporary thing. An expulsion for contempt would not meet that criteria.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT:

    eristdoof said:

    Reposting, as this was a genuine question that no one has answered

    eristdoof said:

    One thing I can't remember being discussed here is this scenario (disclaimer: This is not a prediction but a hypothetical).

    Parliament finds a way to compell Johnson to go to Brussels and ask for another extension.
    Boris "kicks the can" until October 30 when he anounces that he was elected PM on the policy "we will be leaving on the 31st" and refuses to carry out the parliamentary mandate.
    The UK leaves with no deal on the 31st.

    I understand that BJ will be held in contempt of parliament, but what exactly are the ramifications of that. Does he get a slap on the wrist from John Bercow, or is he thrown out of office? Somehow I cannot see the latter being forceable without a VoNC. And once again are there enough Tories prepared to give up their Westminster careers to win a VoNC once the UK has actually left the EU?

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/glossary/?gl=95
    If the PM's expelled from the HoC I presume he/she can no longer be PM?
    I don't think being an MP is a requirement, merely a convention.
    A modern convention

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alec_Douglas-Home
    So something that Boris could ignore given a need to do so.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    I don’t think I like this fixed term Parliament Act. Does it have any defenders?

    We could be entering a situation where the government cannot pass stuff, it’s getting shredded on daily basis, yet still can’t call an election. How can that be an improvement on where we were before? What exactly was broke they were trying to fix?

    Who came up with it? Who voted for it? Who can we blame 😡
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT:

    eristdoof said:

    Reposting, as this was a genuine question that no one has answered

    eristdoof said:

    One thing I can't remember being discussed here is this scenario (disclaimer: This is not a prediction but a hypothetical).

    Parliament finds a way to compell Johnson to go to Brussels and ask for another extension.
    Boris "kicks the can" until October 30 when he anounces that he was elected PM on the policy "we will be leaving on the 31st" and refuses to carry out the parliamentary mandate.
    The UK leaves with no deal on the 31st.

    I understand that BJ will be held in contempt of parliament, but what exactly are the ramifications of that. Does he get a slap on the wrist from John Bercow, or is he thrown out of office? Somehow I cannot see the latter being forceable without a VoNC. And once again are there enough Tories prepared to give up their Westminster careers to win a VoNC once the UK has actually left the EU?

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/glossary/?gl=95
    If the PM's expelled from the HoC I presume he/she can no longer be PM?
    I don't think being an MP is a requirement, merely a convention.
    A modern convention

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alec_Douglas-Home
    I think you will find he was a member of Parliament when appointed. Just not a member of the House of Commons.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Might there be a lesson there for subsequent leaders? That, just possibly, if you involve colleagues from the start you might get a better decision and more chance of getting it implemented. Just a thought....

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1167089010784837633

    Equally

    https://twitter.com/number10staffer/status/1167095940236423169
    Spoof account. Ignore. Somebody who persistently misspells and cannot compose simple grammatical sentences wouldn't be working in Downing Street.
    Can we really be certain of that with the current administration ?
    They don't appoint Civil Servants.

    Admittedly, Christopher Wormald's English is bad (which was embarrassing/amusing when he was drawing up new 'rigorous' education qualifications and making grammatical errors in them) but not as bad as this.
    I was being slightly tongue in cheek - and a SPAD wouldn't be leaking in that manner, as they're all going to be true believers - so you're likely correct.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    egg said:

    I don’t think I like this fixed term Parliament Act. Does it have any defenders?

    We could be entering a situation where the government cannot pass stuff, it’s getting shredded on daily basis, yet still can’t call an election. How can that be an improvement on where we were before? What exactly was broke they were trying to fix?

    Who came up with it? Who voted for it? Who can we blame 😡

    Nick Clegg.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    FPT

    nichomar said:

    I have come to the conclusion that there are about 30 conservative mps who want to stop no deal, but they fear a vonc for the precise reason they are mainly from London and the South and are under serious threat from the Lib Dems. A GE now would be a wipe out for them.

    Indeed labour only started panicking when the Lib Dems became a real threat to labour London seats including Corbyn, Abbott, McDonnell and Thornberry and that threat still remains

    LDs plummeting since Tory Swinson started making TV appearances. Next GE is Tory No Deal or Jezza.
    You do talk some crap
    LDs on 23% when Tory Swinson elected now at 17%

    Main reason Tory Swinson being crap? or perhaps you can provide another explanation for LDs plummeting since Tory Swinson started making TV appearances.
    Must be a new definition of 'plummeting'.

    LD average of thelast 5 polls before Swinson became leader = 18%
    LD average of the last 5 polls up to today = 17.2%

    During the same period Labour's average has risen from 25.2% all the way up to, er... 23.8% Ooops!
    No partry can be entirely content with its polling atm - and there is also variation between pollsters. However, Labour are doing quite badly and show signs of another disastrous showing in Scotland. The Tories are polling better but could be susceptible to tactical voting. The LDs are way better than 2016 but have clearly stalled in terms of national polls and must therefore be susceptible to squeeze - especially if they get overly cozy with Corbyn. The latter seems to be happening in the mad panic among the 'Remain ' camp over the past few days.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,261
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT:

    eristdoof said:

    Reposting, as this was a genuine question that no one has answered

    eristdoof said:

    One thing I can't remember being discussed here is this scenario (disclaimer: This is not a prediction but a hypothetical).

    Parliament finds a way to compell Johnson to go to Brussels and ask for another extension.
    Boris "kicks the can" until October 30 when he anounces that he was elected PM on the policy "we will be leaving on the 31st" and refuses to carry out the parliamentary mandate.
    The UK leaves with no deal on the 31st.

    I understand that BJ will be held in contempt of parliament, but what exactly are the ramifications of that. Does he get a slap on the wrist from John Bercow, or is he thrown out of office? Somehow I cannot see the latter being forceable without a VoNC. And once again are there enough Tories prepared to give up their Westminster careers to win a VoNC once the UK has actually left the EU?

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/glossary/?gl=95
    But we still would have left the EU. Boris being punished by Parliament is almost something he would welcome.
    Yes, but if he ceases to be an MP he ceases to be PM. So I don't think he would push it that far. Remember, Boris Johnson cares deeply about only one thing - himself.
    No he appoints himself to the House of Lords and carries on.
    If he was expelled from Parliament that option would not be open to him.
    The PM doesn't have to be in Parliament.
    I can only think of two occasions in the last 200 years when Parliament has not been actually dissolved that the PM has not been in Parliament, both times very briefly while switching between Houses - 1876 and 1963. On both occasions, that was understood as a temporary thing. An expulsion for contempt would not meet that criteria.
    It doesn't matterr there is no legal requirement for the PM to be in either House. He might have difficulty commanding a majority though in the circumstances described
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    ydoethur said:

    FPT:

    eristdoof said:

    Reposting, as this was a genuine question that no one has answered

    eristdoof said:

    One thing I can't remember being discussed here is this scenario (disclaimer: This is not a prediction but a hypothetical).

    Parliament finds a way to compell Johnson to go to Brussels and ask for another extension.
    Boris "kicks the can" until October 30 when he anounces that he was elected PM on the policy "we will be leaving on the 31st" and refuses to carry out the parliamentary mandate.
    The UK leaves with no deal on the 31st.

    I understand that BJ will be held in contempt of parliament, but what exactly are the ramifications of that. Does he get a slap on the wrist from John Bercow, or is he thrown out of office? Somehow I cannot see the latter being forceable without a VoNC. And once again are there enough Tories prepared to give up their Westminster careers to win a VoNC once the UK has actually left the EU?

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/glossary/?gl=95
    Thanks for the link.
    The text is:

    Any action taken by either a Member of Parliament or a stranger which obstructs or impedes either Parliament in the performance of its functions, or its Members or staff in the performance of their duties, is a contempt of Parliament. Examples of contempt include giving false evidence to a parliamentary committee, threatening a Member of Parliament, forgery of documents and attempting to bribe members. The Commons has the power to order anyone who has committed a contempt of Parliament to appear at the Bar of the House and to punish the offender. If the offence has been committed by an MP he or she may be suspended or expelled.
    So the PM could be expelled from Parliament. But the wording here is quite vague. Also, as I see it, being suspended from Parliament does not mean that he would cease to be PM.

    A possible albeit unlikely strategy would be for Johnson to ignore Parliament, get the UK out of the EU, await the VoNC, expecting there to be a GE afterwards, while he is still Leader of the Conservatives. After Brexit the chances of a GoNsomething reduce dramatically.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    houndtang said:

    This all looks like a very risky but possibly successful gambit. Goad the craven MPs into a vote of no confidence,. Deliberately lose it. Gamble that no alternative can be formed. General Election. Reasonably comfortable Conservative win on 35%ish of the vote against split opposition. Pass a somewhat revised deal after that.

    Hmmm... Would I be willing to put up with 5 years of BoJo rule for the sake of avoiding a no deal Brexit and ending up with a deal much like May's?

    I'd take the May's Deal part but ffs 5 years of this clown? No way.

    In any event, how would BoJo get a deal through his own party even with a HoC majority, given the ERG headbangers?


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Pretty sure Amber Rudd wasn't involved in discussions, either...
    “I think it’s outrageous to consider proroguing Parliament. We are not Stuart kings.”
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited August 2019

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT:

    eristdoof said:

    Reposting, as this was a genuine question that no one has answered

    eristdoof said:

    One thing I can't remember being discussed here is this scenario (disclaimer: This is not a prediction but a hypothetical).

    Parliament finds a way to compell Johnson to go to Brussels and ask for another extension.
    Boris "kicks the can" until October 30 when he anounces that he was elected PM on the policy "we will be leaving on the 31st" and refuses to carry out the parliamentary mandate.
    The UK leaves with no deal on the 31st.

    I understand that BJ will be held in contempt of parliament, but what exactly are the ramifications of that. Does he get a slap on the wrist from John Bercow, or is he thrown out of office? Somehow I cannot see the latter being forceable without a VoNC. And once again are there enough Tories prepared to give up their Westminster careers to win a VoNC once the UK has actually left the EU?

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/glossary/?gl=95
    But we still would have left the EU. Boris being punished by Parliament is almost something he would welcome.
    Yes, but if he ceases to be an MP he ceases to be PM. So I don't think he would push it that far. Remember, Boris Johnson cares deeply about only one thing - himself.
    No he appoints himself to the House of Lords and carries on.
    If he was expelled from Parliament that option would not be open to him.
    The PM doesn't have to be in Parliament.
    I can only think of two occasions in the last 200 years when Parliament has not been actually dissolved that the PM has not been in Parliament, both times very briefly while switching between Houses - 1876 and 1963. On both occasions, that was understood as a temporary thing. An expulsion for contempt would not meet that criteria.
    It doesn't matterr there is no legal requirement for the PM to be in either House. He might have difficulty commanding a majority though in the circumstances described
    There is no legal requirement to have a Prime Minister. Indeed, there is a tenable argument that the office does not officially exist. Does that mean we should abolish Prime Ministers and go back to the Monarch ruling by decree?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,261
    egg said:

    I don’t think I like this fixed term Parliament Act. Does it have any defenders?

    We could be entering a situation where the government cannot pass stuff, it’s getting shredded on daily basis, yet still can’t call an election. How can that be an improvement on where we were before? What exactly was broke they were trying to fix?

    Who came up with it? Who voted for it? Who can we blame 😡

    Governments don't need to pass legislation. It's not their job, it's the legislature. If the Government has no majority, the House of Commons should take control of its own business.
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450

    ydoethur said:

    FPT:

    eristdoof said:

    Reposting, as this was a genuine question that no one has answered

    eristdoof said:

    One thing I can't remember being discussed here is this scenario (disclaimer: This is not a prediction but a hypothetical).

    Parliament finds a way to compell Johnson to go to Brussels and ask for another extension.
    Boris "kicks the can" until October 30 when he anounces that he was elected PM on the policy "we will be leaving on the 31st" and refuses to carry out the parliamentary mandate.
    The UK leaves with no deal on the 31st.

    I understand that BJ will be held in contempt of parliament, but what exactly are the ramifications of that. Does he get a slap on the wrist from John Bercow, or is he thrown out of office? Somehow I cannot see the latter being forceable without a VoNC. And once again are there enough Tories prepared to give up their Westminster careers to win a VoNC once the UK has actually left the EU?

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/glossary/?gl=95
    If the PM's expelled from the HoC I presume he/she can no longer be PM?
    There's no law says the PM must be an MP -e.g. Alec Douglas Home was a member of neither House for a couple of weeks in 1963. Presumably Boris could just stand again in the ensuing general election in the unlikely event he was expelled.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    edited August 2019
    felix said:

    FPT

    nichomar said:

    I have come to the conclusion that there are about 30 conservative mps who want to stop no deal, but they fear a vonc for the precise reason they are mainly from London and the South and are under serious threat from the Lib Dems. A GE now would be a wipe out for them.

    Indeed labour only started panicking when the Lib Dems became a real threat to labour London seats including Corbyn, Abbott, McDonnell and Thornberry and that threat still remains

    LDs plummeting since Tory Swinson started making TV appearances. Next GE is Tory No Deal or Jezza.
    You do talk some crap
    LDs on 23% when Tory Swinson elected now at 17%

    Main reason Tory Swinson being crap? or perhaps you can provide another explanation for LDs plummeting since Tory Swinson started making TV appearances.
    Must be a new definition of 'plummeting'.

    LD average of thelast 5 polls before Swinson became leader = 18%
    LD average of the last 5 polls up to today = 17.2%

    During the same period Labour's average has risen from 25.2% all the way up to, er... 23.8% Ooops!
    No partry can be entirely content with its polling atm - and there is also variation between pollsters. However, Labour are doing quite badly and show signs of another disastrous showing in Scotland. The Tories are polling better but could be susceptible to tactical voting. The LDs are way better than 2016 but have clearly stalled in terms of national polls and must therefore be susceptible to squeeze - especially if they get overly cozy with Corbyn. The latter seems to be happening in the mad panic among the 'Remain ' camp over the past few days.
    I suspect the LDs priorities right now are:

    1. Kill No Deal
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    2. Seek a 2nd Referendum
    3. Seek a GE and win enough seats to hold the balance of power.

    Priority 1. is way out in front.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,261
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT:

    eristdoof said:

    Reposting, as this was a genuine question that no one has answered

    eristdoof said:

    One thing I can't remember being discussed here is this scenario (disclaimer: This is not a prediction but a hypothetical).

    Parliament finds a way to compell Johnson to go to Brussels and ask for another extension.
    Boris "kicks the can" until October 30 when he anounces that he was elected PM on the policy "we will be leaving on the 31st" and refuses to carry out the parliamentary mandate.
    The UK leaves with no deal on the 31st.

    I understand that BJ will be held in contempt of parliament, but what exactly are the ramifications of that. Does he get a slap on the wrist from John Bercow, or is he thrown out of office? Somehow I cannot see the latter being forceable without a VoNC. And once again are there enough Tories prepared to give up their Westminster careers to win a VoNC once the UK has actually left the EU?

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/glossary/?gl=95
    But we still would have left the EU. Boris being punished by Parliament is almost something he would welcome.
    Yes, but if he ceases to be an MP he ceases to be PM. So I don't think he would push it that far. Remember, Boris Johnson cares deeply about only one thing - himself.
    No he appoints himself to the House of Lords and carries on.
    If he was expelled from Parliament that option would not be open to him.
    The PM doesn't have to be in Parliament.
    I can only think of two occasions in the last 200 years when Parliament has not been actually dissolved that the PM has not been in Parliament, both times very briefly while switching between Houses - 1876 and 1963. On both occasions, that was understood as a temporary thing. An expulsion for contempt would not meet that criteria.
    It doesn't matterr there is no legal requirement for the PM to be in either House. He might have difficulty commanding a majority though in the circumstances described
    There is no legal requirement to have a Prime Minister. Indeed, there is a tenable argument that the office does not officially exist. Does that mean we should abolish Prime Ministers and go back to the Monarch ruling by decree?
    Well in the current circumstances...
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,084

    FPT

    nichomar said:

    I have come to the conclusion that there are about 30 conservative mps who want to stop no deal, but they fear a vonc for the precise reason they are mainly from London and the South and are under serious threat from the Lib Dems. A GE now would be a wipe out for them.

    Indeed labour only started panicking when the Lib Dems became a real threat to labour London seats including Corbyn, Abbott, McDonnell and Thornberry and that threat still remains

    LDs plummeting since Tory Swinson started making TV appearances. Next GE is Tory No Deal or Jezza.
    You do talk some crap
    LDs on 23% when Tory Swinson elected now at 17%

    Main reason Tory Swinson being crap? or perhaps you can provide another explanation for LDs plummeting since Tory Swinson started making TV appearances.
    Must be a new definition of 'plummeting'.

    LD average of thelast 5 polls before Swinson became leader = 18%
    LD average of the last 5 polls up to today = 17.2%

    During the same period Labour's average has risen from 25.2% all the way up to, er... 23.8% Ooops!
    And the answer is pretty simple: the political news has more or less squeezed the Lib Dems. That is probably now set to change, so I think their poll rating will indeed firm up a bit, especially since it seems that Cummings is an even bigger ars**le than Milne..

    We will see what happens in Shetland, but elsewhere, the local results have been very solid indeed.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    eristdoof said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT:

    eristdoof said:

    Reposting, as this was a genuine question that no one has answered

    eristdoof said:

    One thing I can't remember being discussed here is this scenario (disclaimer: This is not a prediction but a hypothetical).

    Parliament finds a way to compell Johnson to go to Brussels and ask for another extension.
    Boris "kicks the can" until October 30 when he anounces that he was elected PM on the policy "we will be leaving on the 31st" and refuses to carry out the parliamentary mandate.
    The UK leaves with no deal on the 31st.

    I understand that BJ will be held in contempt of parliament, but what exactly are the ramifications of that. Does he get a slap on the wrist from John Bercow, or is he thrown out of office? Somehow I cannot see the latter being forceable without a VoNC. And once again are there enough Tories prepared to give up their Westminster careers to win a VoNC once the UK has actually left the EU?

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/glossary/?gl=95
    Thanks for the link.
    The text is:

    Any action taken by either a Member of Parliament or a stranger which obstructs or impedes either Parliament in the performance of its functions, or its Members or staff in the performance of their duties, is a contempt of Parliament. Examples of contempt include giving false evidence to a parliamentary committee, threatening a Member of Parliament, forgery of documents and attempting to bribe members. The Commons has the power to order anyone who has committed a contempt of Parliament to appear at the Bar of the House and to punish the offender. If the offence has been committed by an MP he or she may be suspended or expelled.
    So the PM could be expelled from Parliament. But the wording here is quite vague. Also, as I see it, being suspended from Parliament does not mean that he would cease to be PM.

    A possible albeit unlikely strategy would be for Johnson to ignore Parliament, get the UK out of the EU, await the VoNC, expecting there to be a GE afterwards, while he is still Leader of the Conservatives. After Brexit the chances of a GoNsomething reduce dramatically.
    If he ceases to be an MP, he also ceases to be Leader of the Conservatives:

    https://www.politicalpartydb.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/UK_CONSERVATIVE_PARTY_CONSTITUTION_2009.pdf

    Rule 10There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to Parliament, who shall be elected by the Party Members and Scottish Party Members in accordance with the provisions of Schedule 2.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    egg said:

    I don’t think I like this fixed term Parliament Act. Does it have any defenders?

    We could be entering a situation where the government cannot pass stuff, it’s getting shredded on daily basis, yet still can’t call an election. How can that be an improvement on where we were before? What exactly was broke they were trying to fix?

    Who came up with it? Who voted for it? Who can we blame 😡

    The FPTP is a very big improvement.

    The government can request election, and they'd probably get it. They may not be able to play silly buggers with the timing, for example to deliberately prevent parliament from having its say on No Deal, but aside from the merits of No Deal and this particular case, blocking cynical executive shenanigans is obviously a good thing.

    Alternatively maybe someone else can form a government that *won't* be shredded on a daily basis. I doubt it, but who knows. In which case, great.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    eristdoof said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT:

    eristdoof said:

    Reposting, as this was a genuine question that no one has answered

    eristdoof said:

    One thing I can't remember being discussed here is this scenario (disclaimer: This is not a prediction but a hypothetical).

    Parliament finds a way to compell Johnson to go to Brussels and ask for another extension.
    Boris "kicks the can" until October 30 when he anounces that he was elected PM on the policy "we will be leaving on the 31st" and refuses to carry out the parliamentary mandate.
    The UK leaves with no deal on the 31st.

    I understand that BJ will be held in contempt of parliament, but what exactly are the ramifications of that. Does he get a slap on the wrist from John Bercow, or is he thrown out of office? Somehow I cannot see the latter being forceable without a VoNC. And once again are there enough Tories prepared to give up their Westminster careers to win a VoNC once the UK has actually left the EU?

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/glossary/?gl=95
    Thanks for the link.
    The text is:

    Any action taken by either a Member of Parliament or a stranger which obstructs or impedes either Parliament in the performance of its functions, or its Members or staff in the performance of their duties, is a contempt of Parliament. Examples of contempt include giving false evidence to a parliamentary committee, threatening a Member of Parliament, forgery of documents and attempting to bribe members. The Commons has the power to order anyone who has committed a contempt of Parliament to appear at the Bar of the House and to punish the offender. If the offence has been committed by an MP he or she may be suspended or expelled.
    So the PM could be expelled from Parliament. But the wording here is quite vague. Also, as I see it, being suspended from Parliament does not mean that he would cease to be PM.

    A possible albeit unlikely strategy would be for Johnson to ignore Parliament, get the UK out of the EU, await the VoNC, expecting there to be a GE afterwards, while he is still Leader of the Conservatives. After Brexit the chances of a GoNsomething reduce dramatically.
    Why stop at Johnson ?
    Rees Mogg and Mark Spencer could be similarly charged with contempt.

    It would change the calculations for a VONC...
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    ydoethur said:

    egg said:

    I don’t think I like this fixed term Parliament Act. Does it have any defenders?

    We could be entering a situation where the government cannot pass stuff, it’s getting shredded on daily basis, yet still can’t call an election. How can that be an improvement on where we were before? What exactly was broke they were trying to fix?

    Who came up with it? Who voted for it? Who can we blame 😡

    Nick Clegg.
    The guy with the 9 inch knob, 50 former lovers and walked away from all this mess to rake it in silly con valley?

    I never liked him.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    ydoethur said:

    eristdoof said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT:

    eristdoof said:

    Reposting, as this was a genuine question that no one has answered

    eristdoof said:

    One thing I can't remember being discussed here is this scenario (disclaimer: This is not a prediction but a hypothetical).

    Parliament finds a way to compell Johnson to go to Brussels and ask for another extension.
    Boris "kicks the can" until October 30 when he anounces that he was elected PM on the policy "we will be leaving on the 31st" and refuses to carry out the parliamentary mandate.
    The UK leaves with no deal on the 31st.

    I understand that BJ will be held in contempt of parliament, but what exactly are the ramifications of that. Does he get a slap on the wrist from John Bercow, or is he thrown out of office? Somehow I cannot see the latter being forceable without a VoNC. And once again are there enough Tories prepared to give up their Westminster careers to win a VoNC once the UK has actually left the EU?

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/glossary/?gl=95
    Thanks for the link.
    The text is:

    Any action taken by either a Member of Parliament or a stranger which obstructs or impedes either Parliament in the performance of its functions, or its Members or staff in the performance of their duties, is a contempt of Parliament. Examples of contempt include giving false evidence to a parliamentary committee, threatening a Member of Parliament, forgery of documents and attempting to bribe members. The Commons has the power to order anyone who has committed a contempt of Parliament to appear at the Bar of the House and to punish the offender. If the offence has been committed by an MP he or she may be suspended or expelled.
    So the PM could be expelled from Parliament. But the wording here is quite vague. Also, as I see it, being suspended from Parliament does not mean that he would cease to be PM.

    A possible albeit unlikely strategy would be for Johnson to ignore Parliament, get the UK out of the EU, await the VoNC, expecting there to be a GE afterwards, while he is still Leader of the Conservatives. After Brexit the chances of a GoNsomething reduce dramatically.
    If he ceases to be an MP, he also ceases to be Leader of the Conservatives:

    https://www.politicalpartydb.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/UK_CONSERVATIVE_PARTY_CONSTITUTION_2009.pdf

    Rule 10There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to Parliament, who shall be elected by the Party Members and Scottish Party Members in accordance with the provisions of Schedule 2.
    So Bercow throwing Boris (and Rees Mogg) out of Parliament may be the easiest way of solving this mess.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Scott_P said:
    Defending the indefensible is not easy.
  • The thread header is - "The Tangled Web that has evolved"

    But all we get is a remainiac rant.

    It's not a tangled web at all.

    The current parliamentary session has lasted 2 years (longest in hundreds of years.) With a new PM and Government there is a need for a Queen's speech so that all their fantastic policy ideas can be legislated for. The QS will be 14 Oct.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    egg said:

    ydoethur said:

    egg said:

    I don’t think I like this fixed term Parliament Act. Does it have any defenders?

    We could be entering a situation where the government cannot pass stuff, it’s getting shredded on daily basis, yet still can’t call an election. How can that be an improvement on where we were before? What exactly was broke they were trying to fix?

    Who came up with it? Who voted for it? Who can we blame 😡

    Nick Clegg.
    The guy with the 9 inch knob, 50 former lovers and walked away from all this mess to rake it in silly con valley?

    I never liked him.
    You a Liberal Democrat by any chance Egg? 😊
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    egg said:

    I don’t think I like this fixed term Parliament Act. Does it have any defenders?

    We could be entering a situation where the government cannot pass stuff, it’s getting shredded on daily basis, yet still can’t call an election. How can that be an improvement on where we were before? What exactly was broke they were trying to fix?

    Who came up with it? Who voted for it? Who can we blame 😡

    The FPTP is a very big improvement.
    That is an awesome Freudian slip.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    The thread header is - "The Tangled Web that has evolved"

    But all we get is a remainiac rant.

    It's not a tangled web at all.

    The current parliamentary session has lasted 2 years (longest in hundreds of years.) With a new PM and Government there is a need for a Queen's speech so that all their fantastic policy ideas can be legislated for. The QS will be 14 Oct.

    So why a five week prorogation, merely so the monarch can be forced to read through Johnson's party election broadcast ? It's not as though he has either the mandate or the votes to enact any of it.

    It is indefensible, and Cyclefree has well enumerated a large number of lies told in an attempt to justify it.

    That you can't be bothered to engage with the substance says rather more about you.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    ydoethur said:

    eristdoof said:

    ydoethur said:

    FPT:

    eristdoof said:

    Reposting, as this was a genuine question that no one has answered

    eristdoof said:

    One thing I can't remember being discussed here is this scenario (disclaimer: This is not a prediction but a hypothetical).

    Parliament finds a way to compell Johnson to go to Brussels and ask for another extension.
    Boris "kicks the can" until October 30 when he anounces that he was elected PM on the policy "we will be leaving on the 31st" and refuses to carry out the parliamentary mandate.
    The UK leaves with no deal on the 31st.

    I understand that BJ will be held in contempt of parliament, but what exactly are the ramifications of that. Does he get a slap on the wrist from John Bercow, or is he thrown out of office? Somehow I cannot see the latter being forceable without a VoNC. And once again are there enough Tories prepared to give up their Westminster careers to win a VoNC once the UK has actually left the EU?

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/glossary/?gl=95
    Thanks for the link.
    The text is:

    Any action taken by either a Member of Parliament or a stranger which obstructs or impedes either Parliament in the performance of its functions, or its Members or staff in the performance of their duties, is a contempt of Parliament. Examples of contempt include giving false evidence to a parliamentary committee, threatening a Member of Parliament, forgery of documents and attempting to bribe members. The Commons has the power to order anyone who has committed a contempt of Parliament to appear at the Bar of the House and to punish the offender. If the offence has been committed by an MP he or she may be suspended or expelled.
    So the PM could be expelled from Parliament. But the wording here is quite vague. Also, as I see it, being suspended from Parliament does not mean that he would cease to be PM.

    A possible albeit unlikely strategy would be for Johnson to ignore Parliament, get the UK out of the EU, await the VoNC, expecting there to be a GE afterwards, while he is still Leader of the Conservatives. After Brexit the chances of a GoNsomething reduce dramatically.
    If he ceases to be an MP, he also ceases to be Leader of the Conservatives:

    https://www.politicalpartydb.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/UK_CONSERVATIVE_PARTY_CONSTITUTION_2009.pdf

    Rule 10There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to Parliament, who shall be elected by the Party Members and Scottish Party Members in accordance with the provisions of Schedule 2.
    So hereditary peers are eligible? :)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    One benefit of today is that wind generation has increased fourfold.

    Maybe we should have this kind of shitstorm every day to meet our climate change targets?

    Or would the hot air exacerbate the greenhouse effect?
  • egg said:

    I don’t think I like this fixed term Parliament Act. Does it have any defenders?

    We could be entering a situation where the government cannot pass stuff, it’s getting shredded on daily basis, yet still can’t call an election. How can that be an improvement on where we were before? What exactly was broke they were trying to fix?

    Who came up with it? Who voted for it? Who can we blame 😡

    Nonsense.

    Johnson could call an election - he needs a 2/3rds majority but May got that quite easily in 2017, and he'd very likely do so today if he wanted to.

    Equally, if the numbers were there, Corbyn could require a VONC and do it that way (but they probably aren't quite, and it may play into Johnson's hands by allowing him to ensure Parliament isn't sitting at all until past 31st October, so Corbyn isn't doing it).

    So the mechanisms are there for an election, but they are not being used out of choice, not through the operation of the FTPA.

    And I'd certainly defend the FTPA as preventing opportunistic dissolution. That's not today's situation but, as I say, it is political choice not the FTPA that means an election hasn't been called.
  • Nigelb said:

    The thread header is - "The Tangled Web that has evolved"

    But all we get is a remainiac rant.

    It's not a tangled web at all.

    The current parliamentary session has lasted 2 years (longest in hundreds of years.) With a new PM and Government there is a need for a Queen's speech so that all their fantastic policy ideas can be legislated for. The QS will be 14 Oct.

    So why a five week prorogation, merely so the monarch can be forced to read through Johnson's party election broadcast ? It's not as though he has either the mandate or the votes to enact any of it.

    It is indefensible, and Cyclefree has well enumerated a large number of lies told in an attempt to justify it.

    That you can't be bothered to engage with the substance says rather more about you.
    Well it's party conference season - it would have been a shame to cancel them so there's no need to now and we also get a Queen's speech on the 14th Oct.

    Simples.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    ydoethur said:

    egg said:

    ydoethur said:

    egg said:

    I don’t think I like this fixed term Parliament Act. Does it have any defenders?

    We could be entering a situation where the government cannot pass stuff, it’s getting shredded on daily basis, yet still can’t call an election. How can that be an improvement on where we were before? What exactly was broke they were trying to fix?

    Who came up with it? Who voted for it? Who can we blame 😡

    Nick Clegg.
    The guy with the 9 inch knob, 50 former lovers and walked away from all this mess to rake it in silly con valley?

    I never liked him.
    You a Liberal Democrat by any chance Egg? 😊
    What exactly are you a Doctor of? Double bluff? Or just bluff?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    If he ceases to be an MP, he also ceases to be Leader of the Conservatives:

    https://www.politicalpartydb.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/UK_CONSERVATIVE_PARTY_CONSTITUTION_2009.pdf

    Rule 10There shall be a Leader of the Party (referred to in this Constitution as “the Leader”) drawn from those elected to Parliament, who shall be elected by the Party Members and Scottish Party Members in accordance with the provisions of Schedule 2.

    So hereditary peers are eligible? :)
    I was thinking about that actually. Arguably, yes. They are, after all, 'elected to Parliament.' But it would require a legal ruling I think.
  • Good to see MPs being finally forced in to making a decision after 3 years of playing silly games in an effort to thwart the referendum result...without actually getting their hands dirty.

    As a group they have been a disgrace but particularly the hardcore remainer element.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    ydoethur said:

    One benefit of today is that wind generation has increased fourfold.

    Maybe we should have this kind of shitstorm every day to meet our climate change targets?

    Or would the hot air exacerbate the greenhouse effect?

    All part of the special relationship.

    https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/459285-trump-administration-proposes-weaker-methane-regulations
    A newly proposed Trump administration rule would allow for weaker monitoring of methane, a major greenhouse gas contributing to global warming...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    egg said:

    ydoethur said:

    egg said:

    ydoethur said:

    egg said:

    I don’t think I like this fixed term Parliament Act. Does it have any defenders?

    We could be entering a situation where the government cannot pass stuff, it’s getting shredded on daily basis, yet still can’t call an election. How can that be an improvement on where we were before? What exactly was broke they were trying to fix?

    Who came up with it? Who voted for it? Who can we blame 😡

    Nick Clegg.
    The guy with the 9 inch knob, 50 former lovers and walked away from all this mess to rake it in silly con valley?

    I never liked him.
    You a Liberal Democrat by any chance Egg? 😊
    What exactly are you a Doctor of? Double bluff? Or just bluff?
    If I told you, you wouldn't believe me...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Good to see MPs being finally forced in to making a decision after 3 years of playing silly games in an effort to thwart the referendum result...without actually getting their hands dirty.

    As a group they have been a disgrace but particularly the hardcore remainer element.

    Above all there was never a duty to render realistic the impossible promises made in someone else’s referendum campaign. There is no “spirit of the vote”, and if some hyperventilating campaigner promised a paradise of zero regulation, fountains of cash for everyone, and trade deals with all of South America, tough.

    https://freethinkecon.wordpress.com/2019/08/29/burke-and-being-against-the-coercive-authority-of-such-instructions/
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708


    The FPTP is a very big improvement.

    Sorry, FPTP bad, FTPA good
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    This is easily the best thing I've read on Dominic Cummings, perhaps the best thing I've read on Brexit this week.

    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1167101536427749378
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    egg said:

    I don’t think I like this fixed term Parliament Act. Does it have any defenders?

    We could be entering a situation where the government cannot pass stuff, it’s getting shredded on daily basis, yet still can’t call an election. How can that be an improvement on where we were before? What exactly was broke they were trying to fix?

    Who came up with it? Who voted for it? Who can we blame 😡

    Nonsense.

    Johnson could call an election - he needs a 2/3rds majority but May got that quite easily in 2017, and he'd very likely do so today if he wanted to.

    Equally, if the numbers were there, Corbyn could require a VONC and do it that way (but they probably aren't quite, and it may play into Johnson's hands by allowing him to ensure Parliament isn't sitting at all until past 31st October, so Corbyn isn't doing it).

    So the mechanisms are there for an election, but they are not being used out of choice, not through the operation of the FTPA.

    And I'd certainly defend the FTPA as preventing opportunistic dissolution. That's not today's situation but, as I say, it is political choice not the FTPA that means an election hasn't been called.
    The problem is your use of your term opportunistic. The naivety is thinking you are stopping it. It’s a balancing seesaw thing you can’t turnoff. In politics what is opportune for one side is not opportune for another. For example opportunistically block when Boris wants the election till after the Winter of Discontent that is more favourable to you. Whereas I think, if you won the last one the fairest thing is that balance should be in your favour.
  • CaptainBuzzkillCaptainBuzzkill Posts: 335
    edited August 2019
    Nigelb said:


    So why a five week prorogation, merely so the monarch can be forced to read through Johnson's party election broadcast ? It's not as though he has either the mandate or the votes to enact any of it.

    It is indefensible, and Cyclefree has well enumerated a large number of lies told in an attempt to justify it.

    That you can't be bothered to engage with the substance says rather more about you.

    Parliament will be losing a handful of days.

    Considering it has spent 3 years prevaricating and playing games then I find it hard to believe that these few days are suddenly crucial.

    Especially given that they've just come back from a 6 week summer holiday that obviously took priority.

    It is an unfortunate truth that, much like the remainers driven insane on here, our elected representatives seem to have taken leave of not only their senses but also any gauge of proportion and reality.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    Nigelb said:


    So why a five week prorogation, merely so the monarch can be forced to read through Johnson's party election broadcast ? It's not as though he has either the mandate or the votes to enact any of it.

    It is indefensible, and Cyclefree has well enumerated a large number of lies told in an attempt to justify it.

    That you can't be bothered to engage with the substance says rather more about you.

    Parliament will be losing a handful of days.

    Considering it has spent 3 years prevaricating and playing games then I find it hard to believe that these few days are suddenly crucial.

    Especially given that they've just come back from a 6 week summer holiday that obviously took priority.

    It is an unfortunate truth that, much like the remainers driven insane on here, our elected representatives seem to have taken leave of not only their senses but also any gauge of proportion and reality.

    And the latest rewriting of recent history: that MPs have spent three years pointlessly arguing about and desperately trying to stop Brexit. Yes – some do want to stop it and rather more want to stop No Deal. But all this has happened between November 2018 (nearly 2½ years after the referendum) and June this year. Rather than too much time, there has been too little time spent on really thinking properly about how to Brexit and what to do next.

    Do some homework. You only have to scroll up.
  • Scott_P said:


    Above all there was never a duty to render realistic the impossible promises made in someone else’s referendum campaign. There is no “spirit of the vote”, and if some hyperventilating campaigner promised a paradise of zero regulation, fountains of cash for everyone, and trade deals with all of South America, tough.

    https://freethinkecon.wordpress.com/2019/08/29/burke-and-being-against-the-coercive-authority-of-such-instructions/

    This does probably reflect the true feelings of the vast majority in parliament.

    Which is why we are heading for no deal...and also why remainers will own it.

  • Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:


    So why a five week prorogation, merely so the monarch can be forced to read through Johnson's party election broadcast ? It's not as though he has either the mandate or the votes to enact any of it.

    It is indefensible, and Cyclefree has well enumerated a large number of lies told in an attempt to justify it.

    That you can't be bothered to engage with the substance says rather more about you.

    Parliament will be losing a handful of days.

    Considering it has spent 3 years prevaricating and playing games then I find it hard to believe that these few days are suddenly crucial.

    Especially given that they've just come back from a 6 week summer holiday that obviously took priority.

    It is an unfortunate truth that, much like the remainers driven insane on here, our elected representatives seem to have taken leave of not only their senses but also any gauge of proportion and reality.

    And the latest rewriting of recent history: that MPs have spent three years pointlessly arguing about and desperately trying to stop Brexit. Yes – some do want to stop it and rather more want to stop No Deal. But all this has happened between November 2018 (nearly 2½ years after the referendum) and June this year. Rather than too much time, there has been too little time spent on really thinking properly about how to Brexit and what to do next.

    Do some homework. You only have to scroll up.
    So it is written by Cyclefree and so it will be.

    Or not - as the case may be
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    Scott_P said:


    Above all there was never a duty to render realistic the impossible promises made in someone else’s referendum campaign. There is no “spirit of the vote”, and if some hyperventilating campaigner promised a paradise of zero regulation, fountains of cash for everyone, and trade deals with all of South America, tough.

    https://freethinkecon.wordpress.com/2019/08/29/burke-and-being-against-the-coercive-authority-of-such-instructions/

    This does probably reflect the true feelings of the vast majority in parliament.

    Which is why we are heading for no deal...and also why remainers will own it.

    I don't think remainers will be the ones blamed for it.

    And this entire issue is because no-one wants to own / be blamed for the end result.
  • eek said:

    Scott_P said:


    Above all there was never a duty to render realistic the impossible promises made in someone else’s referendum campaign. There is no “spirit of the vote”, and if some hyperventilating campaigner promised a paradise of zero regulation, fountains of cash for everyone, and trade deals with all of South America, tough.

    https://freethinkecon.wordpress.com/2019/08/29/burke-and-being-against-the-coercive-authority-of-such-instructions/

    This does probably reflect the true feelings of the vast majority in parliament.

    Which is why we are heading for no deal...and also why remainers will own it.

    I don't think remainers will be the ones blamed for it.

    And this entire issue is because no-one wants to own / be blamed for the end result.
    Just not the case. Boris is our no-deal man on point (although he wants a deal) - he'll take ownership; although it will be the spoilt brats running the EU that will be at fault.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    ydoethur said:

    egg said:

    ydoethur said:

    egg said:

    ydoethur said:

    egg said:

    I don’t think I like this fixed term Parliament Act. Does it have any defenders?

    We could be entering a situation where the government cannot pass stuff, it’s getting shredded on daily basis, yet still can’t call an election. How can that be an improvement on where we were before? What exactly was broke they were trying to fix?

    Who came up with it? Who voted for it? Who can we blame 😡

    Nick Clegg.
    The guy with the 9 inch knob, 50 former lovers and walked away from all this mess to rake it in silly con valley?

    I never liked him.
    You a Liberal Democrat by any chance Egg? 😊
    What exactly are you a Doctor of? Double bluff? Or just bluff?
    If I told you, you wouldn't believe me...
    Oh that’s a right tease.

    Circus and Physical Performance?
    Sexual Health?
    Parapsychology?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Cicero said:

    FPT

    nichomar said:

    I have come to the conclusion that there are about 30 conservative mps who want to stop no deal, but they fear a vonc for the precise reason they are mainly from London and the South and are under serious threat from the Lib Dems. A GE now would be a wipe out for them.

    Indeed labour only started panicking when the Lib Dems became a real threat to labour London seats including Corbyn, Abbott, McDonnell and Thornberry and that threat still remains

    LDs plummeting since Tory Swinson started making TV appearances. Next GE is Tory No Deal or Jezza.
    You do talk some crap
    LDs on 23% when Tory Swinson elected now at 17%

    Main reason Tory Swinson being crap? or perhaps you can provide another explanation for LDs plummeting since Tory Swinson started making TV appearances.
    Must be a new definition of 'plummeting'.

    LD average of thelast 5 polls before Swinson became leader = 18%
    LD average of the last 5 polls up to today = 17.2%

    During the same period Labour's average has risen from 25.2% all the way up to, er... 23.8% Ooops!
    And the answer is pretty simple: the political news has more or less squeezed the Lib Dems. That is probably now set to change, so I think their poll rating will indeed firm up a bit, especially since it seems that Cummings is an even bigger ars**le than Milne..

    We will see what happens in Shetland, but elsewhere, the local results have been very solid indeed.
    Wishful thinking Cicero, they are circling the drain. Shetland will be reduced majority at best to further pile on the pressure.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    The thread header is - "The Tangled Web that has evolved"

    But all we get is a remainiac rant.

    It's not a tangled web at all.

    The current parliamentary session has lasted 2 years (longest in hundreds of years.) With a new PM and Government there is a need for a Queen's speech so that all their fantastic policy ideas can be legislated for. The QS will be 14 Oct.

    I believe the title refers to the poem by Walter Scott called Marmion, sometimes erroneously thought to be from Shakespeare.: "Oh what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive". Boris Johnson has had a lot of practice! Btw, always delighted to enlighten Leavers on matters of culture, though I am sure you would rather burn books than read them lol.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Glenn, that would be insane.

    Right now, even some people who should naturally be on the Conservative/Leave side are dubious of Johnson's tactics.

    If it becomes a choice between a slightly dodgy PM and Communists occupying infrastructure, that will change as rapidly as the Lib Dem view on tough policing in London 2011.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Scott_P said:
    These pro-EU protesters are losing the plot. Alex Chalk is very pro-EU and it was stated in Shipmans book that he was at the fringes of the Grieve group. I admit that he has kept his head down but he could be an ally of these people. I imagine the local Lib Dems got their rabble out.
  • The thread header is - "The Tangled Web that has evolved"

    But all we get is a remainiac rant.

    It's not a tangled web at all.

    The current parliamentary session has lasted 2 years (longest in hundreds of years.) With a new PM and Government there is a need for a Queen's speech so that all their fantastic policy ideas can be legislated for. The QS will be 14 Oct.

    I believe the title refers to the poem by Walter Scott called Marmion, sometimes erroneously thought to be from Shakespeare.: "Oh what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive". Boris Johnson has had a lot of practice! Btw, always delighted to enlighten Leavers on matters of culture, though I am sure you would rather burn books than read them lol.
    Yes I knew the title referred to the poem quote - but, as previously stated, all we get is, yet another, remainiac rant.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    I assume that this is all in response to Oliver Letwin's call to arms yesterday.

    That man has some reach.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    The Donkey Derby for her replacement will be a hoot
  • Nigelb said:

    Might there be a lesson there for subsequent leaders? That, just possibly, if you involve colleagues from the start you might get a better decision and more chance of getting it implemented. Just a thought....

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1167089010784837633

    Lying so obviously does not usually turn out well even if it buys some time in the short term. As expected Johnson is running a very grubby operation.

  • malcolmg said:

    The Donkey Derby for her replacement will be a hoot
    If they could find a black dyslexic they would be nailed on.
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    I think some on here (and many more in Parliament) need to reflect on two scenarios:

    1) We leave with no deal and the world doesn’t end. In fact, after a few weeks no one can tell the difference; or

    2) You win (more likely, actually) and through one instrument or another Brexit is stopped. And then the global recession comes, and the EU goes around doing unpopular things. The county hasn’t turned pro-EU, the Remain numbers include many who are just scared because they been frightened.

    You won’t currently believe scenario one is possible, but you should reflect on why some of us draw that conclusion. We can’t all be stupid. You must see the risk of option two.

    Leave supporting politicians have behaved badly and failed to grasp the chance of a sensible EFTA compromise; but so has your lot and so has the EU (they’ve gone so far on NU EFTA can’t work).

    Everyone has failed here, and none of us know what happens next. Don’t assume waiving the EU flag and whistling Ode to Joy will see you loved by a suddenly pro-EU majority though.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    The thread header is - "The Tangled Web that has evolved"

    But all we get is a remainiac rant.

    It's not a tangled web at all.

    The current parliamentary session has lasted 2 years (longest in hundreds of years.) With a new PM and Government there is a need for a Queen's speech so that all their fantastic policy ideas can be legislated for. The QS will be 14 Oct.

    I believe the title refers to the poem by Walter Scott called Marmion, sometimes erroneously thought to be from Shakespeare.: "Oh what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive". Boris Johnson has had a lot of practice! Btw, always delighted to enlighten Leavers on matters of culture, though I am sure you would rather burn books than read them lol.
    Yes I knew the title referred to the poem quote - but, as previously stated, all we get is, yet another, remainiac rant.
    No it is called reasoned argument. We leave the ranting to foreigner hating swivel eyed nutters who have no understanding of proportion and believe that the EU is less democratic than Boris Johnson. People with your views could be pitied for your gross stupidity, but actually the damage that your gullibility has done to the country, and will continue to do obviate the need for us to show any pity, only contempt
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    The thread header is - "The Tangled Web that has evolved"

    But all we get is a remainiac rant.

    It's not a tangled web at all.

    The current parliamentary session has lasted 2 years (longest in hundreds of years.) With a new PM and Government there is a need for a Queen's speech so that all their fantastic policy ideas can be legislated for. The QS will be 14 Oct.

    I believe the title refers to the poem by Walter Scott called Marmion, sometimes erroneously thought to be from Shakespeare.: "Oh what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive". Boris Johnson has had a lot of practice! Btw, always delighted to enlighten Leavers on matters of culture, though I am sure you would rather burn books than read them lol.
    Yes I knew the title referred to the poem quote - but, as previously stated, all we get is, yet another, remainiac rant.
    It is a cogently argued article, not a rant.

    You have yet to engage with any of its arguments, other than to throw a few random epithets - which one might construe as a rant.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    malcolmg said:

    The Donkey Derby for her replacement will be a hoot
    Does Bozo have a suitable lickspittle lined up?

    Someone to totally destroy the Scottish Tories.
  • The thread header is - "The Tangled Web that has evolved"

    But all we get is a remainiac rant.

    It's not a tangled web at all.

    The current parliamentary session has lasted 2 years (longest in hundreds of years.) With a new PM and Government there is a need for a Queen's speech so that all their fantastic policy ideas can be legislated for. The QS will be 14 Oct.

    I believe the title refers to the poem by Walter Scott called Marmion, sometimes erroneously thought to be from Shakespeare.: "Oh what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive". Boris Johnson has had a lot of practice! Btw, always delighted to enlighten Leavers on matters of culture, though I am sure you would rather burn books than read them lol.
    Yes I knew the title referred to the poem quote - but, as previously stated, all we get is, yet another, remainiac rant.
    No it is called reasoned argument. We leave the ranting to foreigner hating swivel eyed nutters who have no understanding of proportion and believe that the EU is less democratic than Boris Johnson. People with your views could be pitied for your gross stupidity, but actually the damage that your gullibility has done to the country, and will continue to do obviate the need for us to show any pity, only contempt
    Reasoned Argument - don't make me laugh.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    malcolmg said:

    The Donkey Derby for her replacement will be a hoot
    If they could find a black dyslexic they would be nailed on.
    They will want a WATP candidate , so plenty to choose from
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Honestly, this is such a poor decision both politically and democratically. I can see the logic of it, but a leader needs to see past that and do what's right, even if it means a tougher road in the short term.
This discussion has been closed.