Wanting to see this win almost as much as a long overdue tilting of the Thatcher Blair consensus in favour of working people.
Including delivering the Brexit working class people voted for then and ending free movement?
It is possible the voters misdiagnosed the cause of their problems. You will remember in 1665 the polls during the Plague led to moggies being scapegoated, though we now know it was only the cats that were keeping the rats down. The voters will turn again if project fear is right. Boris knows it, which is why he is shaking the magic money tree.
Opinium in the Observer (buried at the bottom of their Brexit survey):
Overall the Conservatives have opened up a six-point lead over Labour, gaining one point in two weeks ago to stand on 32%, while Labour is down two points on 26% and the Brexit party unchanged on 16%. The Liberal Democrats are on 15%, the SNP 5%, the Greens on 4%, and Plaid Cymru and Ukip on 1%.
Like the other polls though with methodological differences that we've debated, this shows:
* the Johnson bounce continuing, but at a slower rate * the Brexit Party vote holding up despite zero publicity * Labour ahead of the LibDems
We're all familiar with the various implications: suffice it to say that I don't think an election is without risk for Johnson.
Electoral Calculus gives a Tory majority of 30 on those Opinium numbers, Tories 340, Labour 222, LDs 30
Not on the basis of UNS.Opinium shows a pro-Tory swing of 1.75% which would lead to 19 gains from Labour before taking account of first term incumbency - a factor relevant in 13 of the seats concerned.Such gains would be offset by 12 Tory losses to the LDs resulting from a swing of circa 9.5% from the Tories. There would also be likely losses to the SNP.
If some Labour MPs benefit from first term incumbency so likely would some Tory MPs in Scotland also first elected in 2017
Which SCon MPs' first term performances do you think will aid their re-election attempts?
Alister Jack, John Lamont, Andrew Bowie to name a few
Apart from when Jack was appointed Scottish secretary , I had not even heard of him, never heard of Bowie and have not heard Lamont since election. They are all invisible apart from touchy feely who was in the news for all the wrong reasons.
They are visible in their constituencies
There is no real enthusiasm in the Scottish Tory base for the next general election. The main focus is on the Scottish elections. I would only see Mundell as safe.
Wanting to see this win almost as much as a long overdue tilting of the Thatcher Blair consensus in favour of working people.
Including delivering the Brexit working class people voted for then and ending free movement?
It is possible the voters misdiagnosed the cause of their problems. You will remember in 1665 the polls during the Plague led to moggies being scapegoated, though we now know it was only the cats that were keeping the rats down. The voters will turn again if project fear is right. Boris knows it, which is why he is shaking the magic money tree.
Thought it was the French who were blamed. Didn’t some fool confess and go to the gallows?
Wanting to see this win almost as much as a long overdue tilting of the Thatcher Blair consensus in favour of working people.
Including delivering the Brexit working class people voted for then and ending free movement?
It is possible the voters misdiagnosed the cause of their problems. You will remember in 1665 the polls during the Plague led to moggies being scapegoated, though we now know it was only the cats that were keeping the rats down. The voters will turn again if project fear is right. Boris knows it, which is why he is shaking the magic money tree.
Boris knows the reason Brexit won was to regain sovereignty and greater control of EU immigration, while voters are turning against more austerity, hence he remains committed to deliver Brexit, introduce a points system to replace EU free movement and also increase spending on the NHS and police
Opinium in the Observer (buried at the bottom of their Brexit survey):
Overall the Conservatives have opened up a six-point lead over Labour, gaining one point in two weeks ago to stand on 32%, while Labour is down two points on 26% and the Brexit party unchanged on 16%. The Liberal Democrats are on 15%, the SNP 5%, the Greens on 4%, and Plaid Cymru and Ukip on 1%.
Like the other polls though with methodological differences that we've debated, this shows:
* the Johnson bounce continuing, but at a slower rate * the Brexit Party vote holding up despite zero publicity * Labour ahead of the LibDems
We're all familiar with the various implications: suffice it to say that I don't think an election is without risk for Johnson.
Electoral Calculus gives a Tory majority of 30 on those Opinium numbers, Tories 340, Labour 222, LDs 30
Not on the basis of UNS.Opinium shows a pro-Tory swing of s. There would also be likely losses to the SNP.
If some Labour MPs benefit from first term incumbency so likely would some Tory MPs in Scotland also first elected in 2017
Which SCon MPs' first term performances do you think will aid their re-election attempts?
Alister Jack, John Lamont, Andrew Bowie to name a few
Apart from when Jack was appointed Scottish secretary , I had not even heard of him, never heard of Bowie and have not heard Lamont since election. They are all invisible apart from touchy feely who was in the news for all the wrong reasons.
They are visible in their constituencies
There is no real enthusiasm in the Scottish Tory base for the next general election. The main focus is on the Scottish elections. I would only see Mundell as safe.
The problem with Westminster elections is they are FPTP with no PR like Holyrood elections, so the Tories will always win more MSPs than MPs unless they beat the SNP in the popular vote.
Nevertheless I think they have a good chance of holding rural seats like Roxburgh, Berwickshire and Selkirk and Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine and Dumfries and Galloway as well as Mundell's seat even if they lose more urban and suburban seats they gained in 2017 like Stirling, Aberdeen South and East Renfrewshire
England's problem is that they've been playing about twice as fast as they needed to in this innings.
Just an inabilty to play 5 day cricket.
England’s problem is the top three. If we had even a halfway decent test opening pair, and a respectable number three (perhaps the toughest position in test cricket), the rest of the side would look pretty good, despite a few deficiencies.
No test team is perfect, but without a top three, you don’t even have a test team. The current bowling lineup would perform respectably in any era.
But the most absurd thing is that the leaders of the GOP are not prepared to do anything.
This will end very very very badly, as Steve Bannon has said (and he should know).
The leaders of the GOP opposed Trump in the 2016 GOP primaries but he won the nomination anyway, like Boris the conservative establishment have never been Trump fans unlike conservative voters
Maybe it is just me. But I rather suspect that all this talk of a US trade deal is not doing the Conservatives any favours apart from in a tiny % of the voters who are wildly atlantist and like John Redwood's economics.
I think most voters are turned off by the thought of us dealing with Trump.
But the most absurd thing is that the leaders of the GOP are not prepared to do anything.
This will end very very very badly, as Steve Bannon has said (and he should know).
The leaders of the GOP opposed Trump in the 2016 GOP primaries but he won the nomination anyway, like Boris the conservative establishment have never been Trump fans unlike conservative voters
Yes. But that doesn't matter now. This is national emergency.
Any government of Remainers would likely be in office for six months. They wouldn't just be seeking an extension, they would have to promise a referendum to the EU to do it. Then they would be in office to make sure that referendum goes and is held in a way that favours Remain (votes to EU citizens, 16 year olds etc).
Any government of Remainers would likely be in office for six months. They wouldn't just be seeking an extension, they would have to promise a referendum to the EU to do it. Then they would be in office to make sure that referendum goes and is held in a way that favours Remain (votes to EU citizens, 16 year olds etc).
Maybe it is just me. But I rather suspect that all this talk of a US trade deal is not doing the Conservatives any favours apart from in a tiny % of the voters who are wildly atlantist and like John Redwood's economics.
I think most voters are turned off by the thought of us dealing with Trump.
Maybe it is just me. But I rather suspect that all this talk of a US trade deal is not doing the Conservatives any favours apart from in a tiny % of the voters who are wildly atlantist and like John Redwood's economics.
I think most voters are turned off by the thought of us dealing with Trump.
According to Yougov 41% of voters think it is possible to have a good relationship with the Trump administration and 41% do not, so pretty even and almost all the former will be Tory or Brexit Party voters and almost all the latter Labour, LD and SNP voters anyway
To protect rural Scottish seats and potentially rural English seats the government is going to have to come up with trade barriers to protect its farmers like in Switzerland and Norway. This I expect to see shortly as without them the tortes are lost. The cost will be higher food prices in the shops but this can be explained as part of the nasty EU retaliation.
The bit that gets me most is Boris saying there will be no shortage of medicine. This is just wrong. We voted for change and one of the changes will be the medicines available in the UK and the prices we pay for them. Certain medicines will no longer be sold in the UK either because of the new regulatory regime or the cost benefit ratio. We may well find alternative medicines and in some case buy medicines not allowed in EU. Will the end result be better than where we are. Probably not as big markets tend to get preferential access to medicines and the UK is less than 5% of global demand and falling. We probably rank 5th in the ranking of markets but maybe 6th in near future behind Russia or Brazil.
Any government of Remainers would likely be in office for six months. They wouldn't just be seeking an extension, they would have to promise a referendum to the EU to do it. Then they would be in office to make sure that referendum goes and is held in a way that favours Remain (votes to EU citizens, 16 year olds etc).
You make that sound like a bad thing.
I was being descriptive not normative. People are betting on these things and it seems odd to me that everyone is pretending it would only take a month.
Any government of Remainers would likely be in office for six months. They wouldn't just be seeking an extension, they would have to promise a referendum to the EU to do it. Then they would be in office to make sure that referendum goes and is held in a way that favours Remain (votes to EU citizens, 16 year olds etc).
You make that sound like a bad thing.
you think trying to fix an election in a certain way is a good thing?
Maybe it is just me. But I rather suspect that all this talk of a US trade deal is not doing the Conservatives any favours apart from in a tiny % of the voters who are wildly atlantist and like John Redwood's economics.
I think most voters are turned off by the thought of us dealing with Trump.
I think most of us realise the USA is not just Trump
Maybe it is just me. But I rather suspect that all this talk of a US trade deal is not doing the Conservatives any favours apart from in a tiny % of the voters who are wildly atlantist and like John Redwood's economics.
I think most voters are turned off by the thought of us dealing with Trump.
I think most of us realise the USA is not just Trump
Would Trump even sign any trade deals? Judging by the polling he only has 16 months left in power and 2 of those would be as a lame duck.
Any government of Remainers would likely be in office for six months. They wouldn't just be seeking an extension, they would have to promise a referendum to the EU to do it. Then they would be in office to make sure that referendum goes and is held in a way that favours Remain (votes to EU citizens, 16 year olds etc).
You make that sound like a bad thing.
you think trying to fix an election in a certain way is a good thing?
I am rather cynical about these things: if you do not fix the election in one way, your opponents will fix the election in another. The classic example of this is the 1979 Scottish Referendum
Any government of Remainers would likely be in office for six months. They wouldn't just be seeking an extension, they would have to promise a referendum to the EU to do it. Then they would be in office to make sure that referendum goes and is held in a way that favours Remain (votes to EU citizens, 16 year olds etc).
You make that sound like a bad thing.
you think trying to fix an election in a certain way is a good thing?
I am rather cynical about these things: if you do not fix the election in one way, your opponents will fix the election in another. The classic example of this is the 1979 Scottish Referendum
This is why all these things should be left to the Electoral Commission.
Any government of Remainers would likely be in office for six months. They wouldn't just be seeking an extension, they would have to promise a referendum to the EU to do it. Then they would be in office to make sure that referendum goes and is held in a way that favours Remain (votes to EU citizens, 16 year olds etc).
It's far too late for that. It could have been done during the Coalition (somebody here spotted that: @HYUFD , @Socrates ?) but it would be difficult to pull off now.
Maybe it is just me. But I rather suspect that all this talk of a US trade deal is not doing the Conservatives any favours apart from in a tiny % of the voters who are wildly atlantist and like John Redwood's economics.
I think most voters are turned off by the thought of us dealing with Trump.
I think most of us realise the USA is not just Trump
Would Trump even sign any trade deals? Judging by the polling he only has 16 months left in power and 2 of those would be as a lame duck.
Only against Biden do polls clearly show Trump losing, Warren for example polls no better than Hillary did against Trump at best
Any government of Remainers would likely be in office for six months. They wouldn't just be seeking an extension, they would have to promise a referendum to the EU to do it. Then they would be in office to make sure that referendum goes and is held in a way that favours Remain (votes to EU citizens, 16 year olds etc).
It's far too late for that. It could have been done during the Coalition (somebody here spotted that: @HYUFD , @Socrates ?) but it would be difficult to pull off now.
I feel like a compromise is needed on the citizenship question. It is nuts that a Sri Lankan here as a temporary student visa can vote but a Pole that has been working and paying taxes for a decade can't.
Maybe it is just me. But I rather suspect that all this talk of a US trade deal is not doing the Conservatives any favours apart from in a tiny % of the voters who are wildly atlantist and like John Redwood's economics.
I think most voters are turned off by the thought of us dealing with Trump.
I think most of us realise the USA is not just Trump
Would Trump even sign any trade deals? Judging by the polling he only has 16 months left in power and 2 of those would be as a lame duck.
Only against Biden do polls clearly show Trump losing, Warren for example polls no better than Hillary did against Trump at best
Maybe it is just me. But I rather suspect that all this talk of a US trade deal is not doing the Conservatives any favours apart from in a tiny % of the voters who are wildly atlantist and like John Redwood's economics.
I think most voters are turned off by the thought of us dealing with Trump.
I think most of us realise the USA is not just Trump
Would Trump even sign any trade deals? Judging by the polling he only has 16 months left in power and 2 of those would be as a lame duck.
Only against Biden do polls clearly show Trump losing, Warren for example polls no better than Hillary did against Trump at best
ABC has it tied, Emerson has it tied and CNN has Trump beating Warren in the popular vote.
Trump leads Warren 43% to 41% in the latest Michigan poll and 45% to 34% in the latest Pennsylvania poll but Biden beats Trump in both those key swing states in the same poll
After so many years in sport where the rub of the green hasnt gone England's way / just failed at the final hurdle...the cricket have now used up all that stored karma.
Maybe it is just me. But I rather suspect that all this talk of a US trade deal is not doing the Conservatives any favours apart from in a tiny % of the voters who are wildly atlantist and like John Redwood's economics.
I think most voters are turned off by the thought of us dealing with Trump.
I think most of us realise the USA is not just Trump
Would Trump even sign any trade deals? Judging by the polling he only has 16 months left in power and 2 of those would be as a lame duck.
Only against Biden do polls clearly show Trump losing, Warren for example polls no better than Hillary did against Trump at best
ABC has it tied, Emerson has it tied and CNN has Trump beating Warren in the popular vote.
Yes and eight other polls have Warren ahead, some by up to seven points. She is also ahead in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Democrats are going to be motivated to turnout and the economy ia deteriorating due to a trade war associated closely with Trump.
If I were Jack Leach this evening I would drink until I could drink no more, having helped an all-time great secure the greatest cricket victory of all time.
Maybe it is just me. But I rather suspect that all this talk of a US trade deal is not doing the Conservatives any favours apart from in a tiny % of the voters who are wildly atlantist and like John Redwood's economics.
I think most voters are turned off by the thought of us dealing with Trump.
I think most of us realise the USA is not just Trump
Would Trump even sign any trade deals? Judging by the polling he only has 16 months left in power and 2 of those would be as a lame duck.
Only against Biden do polls clearly show Trump losing, Warren for example polls no better than Hillary did against Trump at best
ABC has it tied, Emerson has it tied and CNN has Trump beating Warren in the popular vote.
Yes and eight other polls have Warren ahead, some by up to seven points. She is also ahead in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Democrats are going to be motivated to turnout and the economy ia deteriorating due to a trade war associated closely with Trump.
No, Warren is not ahead in Pennstylvania or Michigan, as I posted earlier Trump beats Warren in the latest poll in both those key swing states.
If I were Jack Leach this evening I would drink until I could drink no more, having helped an all-time great secure the greatest cricket victory of all time.
Comments
Edit, cricket, I mean!
Three wickets in seven overs has now reduced England's % drastically from 61% to 11%.
Broad is a whiz with the bat sometimes isn't he?
And he's not even in yet.
By Andrew Sullivan"
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/08/andrew-sullivan-president-trump-never-gets-any-less-absurd.html
Nevertheless I think they have a good chance of holding rural seats like Roxburgh, Berwickshire and Selkirk and Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine and Dumfries and Galloway as well as Mundell's seat even if they lose more urban and suburban seats they gained in 2017 like Stirling, Aberdeen South and East Renfrewshire
But the most absurd thing is that the leaders of the GOP are not prepared to do anything.
This will end very very very badly, as Steve Bannon has said (and he should know).
No test team is perfect, but without a top three, you don’t even have a test team. The current bowling lineup would perform respectably in any era.
But seriously - this would now be a genuine miracle.
And unlike Errol Brown ... I don't.
https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/1165627957437751296?s=20
I think most voters are turned off by the thought of us dealing with Trump.
18 required....
https://yougov.co.uk/opi/surveys/results#/survey/c049e5a5-a3bf-11e9-bf84-3f0a50eb2d81
67% of British voters also want a trade deal with the USA post Brexit
https://order-order.com/2018/09/18/massive-majorities-favour-us-uk-trade-deal/
The bit that gets me most is Boris saying there will be no shortage of medicine. This is just wrong. We voted for change and one of the changes will be the medicines available in the UK and the prices we pay for them. Certain medicines will no longer be sold in the UK either because of the new regulatory regime or the cost benefit ratio. We may well find alternative medicines and in some case buy medicines not allowed in EU. Will the end result be better than where we are. Probably not as big markets tend to get preferential access to medicines and the UK is less than 5% of global demand and falling. We probably rank 5th in the ranking of markets but maybe 6th in near future behind Russia or Brazil.
Just wow.
Best 1 not out in Test history!
Trump leads Warren 43% to 41% in the latest Michigan poll and 45% to 34% in the latest Pennsylvania poll but Biden beats Trump in both those key swing states in the same poll
http://firehousestrategies.com/june-2020-survey/
At one point England were 21 this afternoon.
http://firehousestrategies.com/june-2020-survey/
The economy is still doing OK and Trump voters are also motivated to turn out
Which neatly balances out the tenner or so I am underwater on the SPOTY market re Mr Stokes...
Easy come easy go...
In all seriousness, england need to make changes.