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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Clarke’s TANDA – what about all the other positions?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Clarke’s TANDA – what about all the other positions?
Let’s make the heroic assumption that the Tories are brought down in a Vote of No Confidence, Corbyn cannot gather the support to form a government but he reluctantly concedes that if someone else can, on a temporary basis, in order to secure an Article 50 extension and then trigger a general election, Labour will support that.
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Corbyn and a splash-and-dash, extension and election government, with acceptance of purdah to rule out action in other areas, remains the only viable chance to stop Brexit. Ironically, it would then not matter very much who was in the Cabinet as purdah and time would preclude new legislation.
The only viable route to a Clarke premiership is as leader of a Conservative government if Boris falls under a bus.
Utter fantasy.
Boris of course would not resign but stay Tory leader and replace Corbyn as Leader of the Opposition with the vast majority of Tory MPs and the DUP behind him as well as a few Labour rebels.
With Clarke PM on an anti No Deal ticket and Boris Leader of the Opposition on a pro No Deal Brexit ticket, Corbyn would be left in no man's land having lost control of the vast majority of his MPs who would be backing a Clarke premiership
Does Ken Clarke really want to finish more than 50 years of loyal service to the Conservatives by splitting the party in half over Europe and form a government of trots and greens?
Also, how many Tories would commit career suicide by joining in? We hear talk of 40 or 50, but would more than a handful of retirees actually cross the floor to do it?
It's too damned warm.
Whilst not disagreeing, I wonder what those who are suggesting a Clarke Government is unlikely think the likeliest alternative outcome is.
If not Corbyn, GE.
The first is a situation where Ken Clarke makes it clear that he would ask for an extension, and then immediately call for a No Confidence vote on his own government. Mr Clarke would be the shorting serving Prime Minister on record, managing, the Palace, a call to Brussels, lunch, and a No Confidence vote in the space of about three hours. In such a situation, there would be no need for the filling of Ministerial posts because any Conservative Backers of the (T)GoNAfaE would simply then give confidence again to Mr Johnson. (For the record, I doubt they'd get to stand as Conservatives at the next election. But if Mr Clarke offered this, it *might* theoretically happen.) I'll call this a 500-1 shot.
The second is one where Mr Johnson vowed to have an election after 31 October. So, he's been no confidenced, and then foolishly boasts that any General Election would take place actually on 31 October. (Which, if I recall correctly is a Thursday.) There is then an incredibly small chance that the "forces of Remain" chose to put in place a caretaker government solely for the purpose of having a PM who would choose a date before 31 October. This is also not very likely. I'd say it's more likely than the first option, but not much. Shall we say 250-1?
It had Biden on 17.7%, Warren on 17.4%, Buttigieg on 13.9%, and Sanders on 10%. Nobody else made it out of single digits.
No Democrat who has ever won the straw poll has ever gone on to win the Iowa caucuses, so it looks like Warren had a lucky escape.
Worth mentioning that Tulsi Gabbard did surprisingly well, beating out Amy Klouba... Amy from Minnesota, and landing seventh spot with 5%. She was also well ahead of Beto O'Rourke, whose Presidential campaign is tanking hard.
https://twitter.com/darranmarshall/status/1165374321969303552?s=21
Incidentally, my wife has just been told that there is no point in trying for a Dermatology appointment locally; there just aren't enough clinical staff. It's not that she can't have one for three months; the contractor to the local CCG just isn't making any at all at the moment.The last consultant she saw, six months ago, told her was off back to, IIRC, Poland.
https://twitter.com/shippersunbound/status/1165367219200638979?s=21
No deal is happening. And Remain have themselves to blame.
My guess is no. But with the time so short and the implications in the news for weeks, that might weigh on them.
Still, with the media focused on a few score ERGers and seemingly incapable of mentioning that most of those who vote against the various deals are pro-EU Labour MPs I doubt it'll worry Corbyn unduly.
I knew the Leave campaign was the most dishonest one ever seen in this country, but getting what you want and then blaming the other side for it going wrong really does take the biscuit!
Also, most of those opposing deals supported Remain and the deal was negotiated by a Remain-supporting PM.
Johnson will then do his best to ignore it, and I don't know what happens then.
Agree about the divergence; like all movements. I understand that some Tories regard Boris Johnson as less than the ideal leader.
Hedge fund operators, especially those with offices in Dublin anyone?
The point is the government ministries and department go on as usual run by the civil servants. During an election the HoC ministers are still the ministers but they are not making decisions of any importance, just signing and stamping enough letter to make sure everything carries on as usual. In the Clarke as PM scenario, he would be active PM for 1 day, after that he would either be de facto PM during an election campaign that he would not be standing in, or Johnson would return as de facto PM during the election campaign.
Recent examples where the governments has carried on as usal for months regardless of who actually the minister is and without any policy decisions being made are in Germany 2017-18 (six months) post GE and in Belgium 2010-2011 (19 months) post GE. These situations are not great, but competely workable.
I suspect that such a vote could also be seen as effectively binding the hands of the successor.
1. We No Deal Brexit.
2. Hedge funds that own the government make hay from the chaos this causes.
3. Tories win a GE thanks to Corbyn Labour.
4. Hedge funds realise their profits by ordering Johnson to do a deal.
It’s useful displacement activity to make them think they are doing something
The downside is it completely eliminates any incentive for the EU to move (this isn’t to say they would move if the fanatical Remainers would just shut up, but there is a greater chance they would)
The government was on the news this morning saying that of course they would pay their legal obligations which they estimated at £7-9bn.
https://xkcd.com/1122/
Why should we pay £14.5bn a year (IIRC) for a transition period?
That’s a pretty crappy use of taxpayers money
Edit: I see not, IDS is currently without a role.
https://twitter.com/peston/status/1165529138557591552?s=21
Anyway I'm off to a German discount supermarket to stockpile canned food. Baked beans and tinned tomatoes for Christmas lunch will be fine by me, I assume I might be in the minority however.
If it were just an FTA it'd be very popular in the UK.
There is no law against parliament binding the hands of its successor. In any case, this would not do so. Even if parliament enacted a law against no deal, a future parliament can repeal that law.
So no, any attempt to take this to the courts would fail.
Either keep the current ones, or use the chairs of the relevant select committees, substituting a retiring grandee from the same party for each select committee chairman who declines.
Anything less is going to have the Diehard Brexiteers screaming "treason", "betrayal" and worse for ever and a day. Even some sort of deal is not going satisfy them. The boil needs to be lanced sooner rather than later.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/25/no-deal-brexit-will-instantly-disrupt-uk-role-as-data-hub-digital-economy
The UK currently has the largest data centre market in Europe. More than 75% of UK data transfers are with EU countries.
Until the UK leaves the EU, data can flow freely to and from other member states and has been able to do so since the emergence of the internet and digital economy. The free flow of data within the EU is governed by harmonised data protection rules and common systems of regulatory enforcement. EU member states also have shared arrangements for data flows with non-EU countries...
...Felicity Burch, the CBI’s director of digital and innovation, said: “A no-deal Brexit endangers UK’s position as a global hub for data flows. From day one, the free flow of data that underpins every sector from automotive to logistics will be hit.
“Businesses have already undertaken costly legal processes and some are investing in EU data centres. An adequacy agreement must remain a priority for government or the UK’s £174bn data economy is at risk.’
An Existential Threat to WTO Dispute Settlement: Blocking Appointment of Appellate Body Members by the United States
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3216633
By the time we No Deal, we could be looking at GATT rules, rather than WTO...
Anyone claiming otherwise is a Britain Trump.
https://twitter.com/100_survivor/status/1165483489967398912?s=20
Brexit has turned into a culture war and the Brexit side thrives on narratives of betrayal, "metropolitan elites" and "enemies of the people". Anything short of a "clean" break feeds the narrative.
1. Governments control the agenda. It's difficult for non government bodies to force through a different agenda.
2. The Conservatives will win a workable majority if they can squeeze BXP and Lib Dems and Labour split the opposition equally.
3. No Deal won't work. There is far too much headwind. So we're back to the key Brexit conundrum: the UK can't do without a close relationship with the EU, which will be on the EU27's terms. They all have to agree, have little flexibility and aren't in a great hurry.
4. Brexit at heart an ideological project. Johnson's close advisors and financial backers as well as likely Johnson himself want to burn the bridges, the boats and scorch the earth so the UK turns away from European social democracy and international rule of law to an irredentist American order. This position has little support outside of the inner circle and hits against point 3.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/24/labour-shifts-delay-motion-confidence/
https://twitter.com/philiphammonduk/status/1165539601680916480?s=21
There comes a point ... "Brexit means Brexit" ... and perhaps it has come.
Overall the Conservatives have opened up a six-point lead over Labour, gaining one point in two weeks ago to stand on 32%, while Labour is down two points on 26% and the Brexit party unchanged on 16%. The Liberal Democrats are on 15%, the SNP 5%, the Greens on 4%, and Plaid Cymru and Ukip on 1%.
Like the other polls though with methodological differences that we've debated, this shows:
* the Johnson bounce continuing, but at a slower rate
* the Brexit Party vote holding up despite zero publicity
* Labour ahead of the LibDems
We're all familiar with the various implications: suffice it to say that I don't think an election is without risk for Johnson.
Why is anyone surprised ?
The sequence I can see happening (10-1 shot) is:
1. Johnson makes enough extreme threats (like suspending Parliament for a month) to terminally piss off enough rebels to pass a VONC even without knowing what happens next.
2. Corbyn tries to get a majority, and fails.
3. Clarke says now I've caught up, OK, I'll do a caretaker job till an election if you like. He gets a majority. Oct 31 is delayed.
4. The election is held with Britain still in and the result is...???
On a minor note, LibDem sources in Broxtowe tell me that Anna Soubry is going to stand against them in Broxtowe. Nobody who knows AS is surprised (she is the least cooperative person you've ever heard of), but it makes the election there wildly unpredictable.